Did AI Just Kill Software? | Prof G Markets
2011 segments
Today's number 1 million. That's the
total number of domain names registered
as of last month. Uh Ed, true story. As
I'm trying to unsubscribe because of
resist and unsubscribe, I unsubscribe
from Amazon one, their healthcare
offering. And I don't know if they're
listening to me and using it across
their other domains, but whenever I go
to Amazon Prime now, it suggests
erectile dysfunction socks.
Okay. You don't like that one? Fine. Uh,
instead of getting a doctor for a same
day appointment, it gives me a picker
from a warehouse named Kyle. I told it I
had Crohn's and it suggested just turn
your body off and on real fast. See what
happens.
>> How are you, Ed?
>> I'm doing very well. How are you doing,
Scott?
>> I feel very exposed. This resist and
unsubscribe thing. A lot of people are
saying it's inspiring and a lot of
people are saying that I should have
been more organized and reached out to
them. What do they mean? They should
have reached out to them. These people,
these politicians who already had a plan
or
>> Yeah. Or there's activist groups,
there's, you know, media personalities
who are like, well, this isn't, if you'd
reached out to me or these groups that
help organize these things. And I'm
like, the last thing I want to do is get
on the phone with a bunch of media
personalities and Brooklynites
and get their view on whether Netflix
should be on the list or not. That
sounds like the seventh circle of hell
for me. I think that's exactly right.
And there you have your answer. It was
the right choice. You don't want to do
that. That's a pain in the ass. So, you
did it your way. I think that's the
right way to do it.
>> I did it my way. That's right, Ed.
That's right. And today, I'm speaking,
no joke, to the senior class president
and the senior class at a Michigan high
school such that they're all considering
collectively unsubscribing from Spotify,
but they want to speak to me first. I
have never been so intimidated. I got to
speak to like 400 seniors at a high
school about why they should unsubscribe
from Spotify.
I think somehow that's going to I'm
going to end up in the Epstein Files
because of that.
By the way, I just want to highlight I
don't think anyone on our podcast is in
the Epstein Files.
>> Actually, you know what?
>> Oh, have you searched your name?
>> Yeah. Well, no, I haven't. Cara did. I
didn't search. I'm not in the Epstein
files. Cara did and she called me and
said, "Thank God you're not in the
Epstein files."
>> You actually are in the Epstein files.
But
>> what? It was an email to Epstein saying,
"You should read this article." And the
article quotes Scott Galloway. It's a
guy, one of his buddies saying, "Hey,
you should read this this this article
about, I don't know, valuations in big
tech or something. It's really good. You
should check this out." And then in the
article, it says, "Professor Scott
Galloway says blah blah blah blah." So,
you are in the Epstein files, but you're
in there because Epstein's buddy thinks
that you have good financial analysis.
That's right.
>> Well, there you go.
>> It is getting to the point though where
if you're not in the Epstein files, then
who the [ __ ] are you? You know,
>> you know what I love? I So, what is it?
The Overton window has been shifted
here. I've been seeing all these um sex
workers on TikTok saying that uh who's
not in the Epstein files? Hunter Biden.
>> We're going to need to audit your
algorithm soon, but please continue.
>> Hunter Biden loved two things. He loved
crack cocaine and having sex with grown
women. And he looks wholesome now. He
looks He only did meth and he banged sex
workers who were actual adult women. And
he looks like some something out of the
Walton's right now. I love how the
window has been shifted. And remember
Larry Summers, I mean, he was just
associated with the Epstein files. He
had to step down from all of his
positions. He steps down from the board
of OpenAI. Now, it turns out there are
hundreds of Larry Summers out there. But
there are so many at this point, it's
sort of like the the flooding the zone
with [ __ ] You just flood the zone with
so many creeps that now being creepy
doesn't matter anymore.
>> What we need is an institution to go
through these millions of pages and say,
"This is what warrants public scrutiny.
This is what warrants a grand jury and
an indictment." Exactly.
>> And this this is what doesn't warrant
public scrutiny.
>> And so everything's being mixed
together. I mean, everyone's talking
about Dr. for Petia. I think he's a
[ __ ] distraction.
>> Totally agree.
>> The cabinet members and the president
and someone people have committed child
rape. Those are the people we should be
talking about.
>> 100%.
>> Anyways, I I find the whole thing
another example of how people don't
appreciate how much benefit we got from
institutions we could actually trust.
There's no institution we trust to
review this and parse out the parse out
what is credible information that
warrants discovery and other information
that's just stupid gossip that's going
to do nothing but create headaches for
people for no [ __ ] reason. And it
almost seems intentional to mix them all
together. Even the redactions which
don't really make any sense. I mean they
said that they had a rule for the
redactions which was supposed to be
victims and children. But then you go
through and you see actually a lot of
these redactions don't make any sense at
all. You have redactions of people who
are clearly the perpetrators and they're
just blacking out their name. So then
you just you just don't know who sent
that very very alarming email about
potentially some sort of pedophilic or
um creepy just awful behavior. Whatever
it is, I mean the reductions don't make
any sense. Um I'm totally with you. this
whole thing is just a total shitow and
it seems like that is the point.
>> Well, the I forget his name, but the guy
who sort of invented modern propaganda
for the GRU said that
uh he said the key is put out lies, put
out truth whenever Putin or someone else
is accused of something, put out some
truth, put out some lies, accuse
everybody all the time and just make it
such that people are totally confused
and just give up and there is no
objective truth anymore.
And that's what this is.
>> And it's working. It's working really
well,
>> 100%.
And because we don't have institutions
we can trust, they can say, "Okay, we're
not going to release the names of the
victims unless they want their names
released, but if there is an individual
who is there's credible evidence in
these files that this person has
impregnated 11-year-old, we're going to
let the markets know through a grand
jury indictment of this person." and the
the American public has a right to know
if the president of the United States
has been mentioned 5700 times or if his
cabinet secretary of commerce claims
very stridenly that he wanted nothing to
do with this guy and still continued to
have you know I mean even that you could
argue maybe that's not for public
discovery or scrutiny but instead
they've just flooded the zone like
nothing else and everyone's just
confused and had it
>> well we could talk about Epstein files
for days. But we have some very
interesting market news to get into
today. Today we are discussing why
software stocks sold off last week. Uh
we're also discussing the future of the
entertainment industry. We got some
updates there and also Anthropic's
unbelievable marketing win with their
Super Bowl ad. But to start, let's
discuss what happened to software.
Software stocks got crushed last week.
Cloudflare fell 7% at last fell nearly
9%. Shopify fell 14%. As a whole,
software companies lost roughly 12% of
their value in just one week. That
dragged the NASDAQ 100 into its worst
3-day slide since Liberation Day.
Selloff was triggered by a wave of new
tools that spooked investors. Anthropic
rolled out industry specific products
for legal, finance, and customer
service. OpenAI also launched a more
powerful multi- aent version of its
coding tool and a new platform to help
companies deploy AI agents. Meanwhile, a
new AI assistant called OpenClaw can now
execute tasks directly through messaging
apps like WhatsApp. The fear is that if
companies can build their own software
with AI, well then why will you keep
paying companies to make it for them? So
Scott, uh just absolute chaos in the
software market right now. All of the
big software names are trading down. Uh
you look at the the software ETF, IGV,
it's down 20% in the past month. Tons of
selling happening right now. Um I have a
view on this and I've actually gone out
into the market and taken some action,
but I will start with your reactions to
what happened last week. Uh and then we
can get into the details. what you just
said is thinly veiled way of saying you
you buy these stocks you think are being
unfairly punished would be my guess.
>> Yes.
>> Um I think what you're going to see is
is that it's going to put margin
pressure on these companies and it's
going to create a new wave of startups.
I think that we talk about Figma and
Adobe. Adobe's sort of Mercedes. Figma
is sort of Toyota. somebody's going to
come up with BYD and that is they're
going to use a AI to come up with 80% of
Adobe for 10% of the price. But at the
same time, I still think Adobee is going
to be a cash machine because you'll
continue to use Salesforce for a long
time because if you invest all that time
in understanding the interface and
getting good at it and your employees
and your sales teams know how to input
data into Salesforce,
unless something is monumentally better
and it's been mandated from the top
levels of the company, they're not
switching over. So I I think you're
right. These companies have probably
been overpunished.
What I think the net net though will be
is margin compression because there's
going to be so many startups offering an
Old Navy version of these software
platforms at a fraction of the cost from
overfunded startups where a 2 10 20 30
person team can spin up a SAS platform
at a fraction of the cost. It will put I
think margin pressure on on these folks.
>> I think margin pressure is exactly
right. I think that is the danger here.
What is interesting though is that the
market's reaction has not been one of
we're going to see reduced margins or
we're going to see some more pressure on
margins. The market's reaction is
telling us software is dead. AI has
killed software. So software stocks down
20% in the past month, just one month
alone. The forward PE has gone down from
35 times in 2025 to 20, lowest level
since 2014. We're seeing huge amounts of
selling pressure to the point where it's
kind of obvious now. Like this isn't
just, oh, we might trim our holdings.
This is like sell everything. This is
what we would call panic selling. To me,
this is very similar to what happened
when chat GPT came onto the scene. And I
don't know if you remember what
happened, but chatbt shows up and
everyone decides that search is dead
now. Specifically, Google is dead now.
And you saw Google stock cratered 40% in
the year that Chach GBT was released. It
actually then started to continue to
slide as more products were announced
from CHBT. Since it bottomed out, Google
has obviously been on a massive run.
They have risen 280%.
And essentially what they did was they
learned from Chat GPT. They invested
more in AI. They integrated AI into
their products. They came up with their
own AI product. their search revenue
actually increased. It's up 50% since
chatbt was released. They got more usage
and now Google is
everyone agrees the winner of AI at
least for the moment. Um it's now worth
$4 trillion in market cap. It is sort of
with Apple competing for second most
valuable company in the world. And that
was an example where the market was
confronted with this new technology that
really freaked them out and they decided
that they just were going to do away
with their models, do away with
rationality and they just decided [ __ ]
it, let's sell. That's exactly what
happened and it it it made Google one of
the best buys and we recommended it uh
about a year ago. Similar thing happened
by the way with with Tik Tok. Tik Tok
comes onto the scene. It's really
exciting. It's really popular. Everyone
decides Instagram is dead. Meta stock
falls 70%. Then it bottoms out. Then it
rips up more than 600% in the next few
years. They come out with a product that
is very similar to Tik Tok in Instagram
reels. Now Instagram reels has almost
the same number of users as Tik Tok
does. Very similar dynamic. So I think
that this is the same thing is happening
here and that is we do have a new
technology and it could be quite
disruptive but the amount of selling
pressure that we're seeing in the
markets is just indicative of again
panic chaos confusion and there are many
reasons why I think software isn't dead
um you know the first reason would be
there's nothing stopping these companies
from integ integrating AI into their
existing products. I mean, this is the
same thing we saw with Google. Just
because Chad GBT comes along doesn't
mean that Google can't get into AI. In
fact, that's exactly what they did do
and it worked really well. The other
thing that you point out, which I think
is a massive point that people are not
really recognizing. If you're going to
cancel an enterprise contract with a
software company, say Salesforce, that's
not like a small deal. That's like a
gigantic pain in the ass. The switching
costs are massive. It takes on average
more than half a year to find a new
service provider. It also has to go to
committee. You need to have a bunch of
people, executives who have to sign off
on the decision. It also costs money. If
you're going to terminate the contract,
then you have to pay 100% of the
remaining fees. This is something that
companies do not want to do. You do not
want to change your enterprise SAS
provider because it sucks to do it. And
this by the way is why these companies
have been such great buyers in the past
because the moes are gigantic. It's
always been a thing. The switching costs
are tremendous. So in order to switch
from one of those providers, you need to
have a huge body of evidence to show you
and to show the committee that yes,
going with Claude or going with the
other AI tool is a better idea. The
other thing they're counting out is the
trust they have with these companies,
the relationships they have with these
companies. They've been working with
these companies for years. So again, the
idea that oh, there's a new tool. Oh,
there's a there's a a new startup that
they're going to they're going to help
us with our enterprise SAS. Meanwhile,
we've been working with these companies
for years and we trust them and we trust
their enterprise security. I just don't
think that it's realistic. I think that
the selling pressure is way too strong
right now. I think markets are
overreacting. To me, this is perfect
buying opportunity.
>> I think you're right. And the reality is
you want your emotions are your enemy.
And when you hear this news and the
narrative, and it's a solid one, that AI
is going to undermine all SAS platforms.
I get it. You have to be thoughtful
about valuations. But the analogy I
would use is that when I went to UCLA,
everyone talked about the freshman 10.
And that is the majority of people end
up in the dorms. I forgot to send in my
deposit for my dorms, and I was so
freaked out. My mom was going to freak
out because she wanted me to move out so
badly that I rushed a fraternity and
ended up getting into a fraternity just
because I needed a place to live. It's
neither here nor there, but anyways.
People want to know about my history.
People want to know what music I was
listening to in the 80s. RM, Lloyd Cole,
English Beat, Tom Petty, uh, you know,
Damn the Torpedoes. It was really
unfortunate that you weren't born in an
earlier age yet.
>> I agree.
>> They called it the freshman 10. And that
is you got a meal plan. You paid like
you paid I don't know, I forget it was
1,100 bucks and you got three meals a
day in your dorm. Sprout, Hedrickk,
whatever. And you just go down, you roll
down in your pajamas and they had cereal
and good food. It was all crazy crazy
fattening.
And the notion would be okay. And I
remember even someone writing an article
saying there's all sorts of different
options on campus for food. To eat
somewhere else was a hassle and
expensive and required a huge change in
consumer behavior. That's the way I see
this and that is there might be a new AI
company that comes out that is a better
CRM for half the price of Salesforce.
Good luck trying to get your entire
sales force to figure out a way to input
and figure out the interface
and the mobile application.
You know, they're going to say, "Fuck
that. Let's just stick with Salesforce."
Now, the next time they're negotiating
next year with a huge site license for,
I don't know, McKenzie or whoever who
uses Salesforce to manage all their
potential clients of people who think
that someone with a PhD in a Northern
European accent knows any more about
their [ __ ] business than they do. The
procurement department at McKenzie will
use all of these AI CRM startups to
negotiate a lower price. Yeah,
>> but I don't think they're going to swap
out a cloud flare of all the these
companies do such a good job of creating
friction to exit
>> try to I remember when when I was not
running but I started my red envelope. I
think we were using Oracle and
Broadvision
>> and Oracle was power was it powering our
database but trying to switch out of
Oracle they purposely make it almost
impossible. Yeah,
>> these companies do a really good job of
making it easy for you to sign up, like
I find when I check out of a hotel, they
make it so easy for me to pay. They're
like, "Okay, we've already taken the
payment." What's really hard is if they
charge you for breakfast you didn't
order, it takes, you know, several calls
and years to get your money back and
it's not worth it. It's the same thing
here. These companies will experience
margin pressure because the procurements
departments will have a lot of options
and they'll threaten it, but they're not
going to tell their 4,000 media part
department at L'Oreal to start using
some other um you know software program
to figure out how to track clients or
payables or whatever. Right now, these
companies their revenues are growing and
they're actually growing at double-digit
rates. So, it's not that people are
upset with the product right now. They
actually like the product and and every
company that has an enterprise
relationship with one of these software
companies, they're going to be trying to
find reasons to continue the
relationship because it's too much of a
pain to get out of it. They don't want
to do that. In addition, they're going
to be integrating AI into the products
themselves. So, it's not like I mean,
it's not as if Salesforce suddenly
doesn't have AI. Salesforce is investing
a lot in AI right now and they're going
to roll out those products to their
customers. So I I think it's a lot of
hysteria over something that is not that
meaningful and you know it's rare that
you have these moments where there is
such
such momentum in the selling pressure
among the markets and so I think these
are the moments where you want to go in
and buy. Um Mark Mahaney calls these
kinds of companies DHQs, dislocated
highquality companies. That is you want
to find good companies that are
experiencing some level of dislocation.
I have a few names that I have bought.
Um and who knows what will happen to the
prices cuz the markets are going crazy
right now.
>> What did you buy? Inquiring minds want
to know.
>> So I bought three stocks. The first
stock was Adobe. And just a disclosure,
Adobe has sponsored this podcast in the
past. I made this pick last week and I
stand by it. It's down 9% since Monday
night. It's down nearly 40% in the past
year, trading at 17 times earnings. The
S&P average is 29 times earnings. Its
5-year average, it 5-year PE average is
37. So, the assumption is AI is just
going to kill Adobe overnight. But
again, this is a large enterprise
company.
>> Wow. It's at a 5year low.
>> It's getting absolutely decimated right
now. but it's used by 98% of Fortune
500s. We've also talked about this with
the research team that they have this
major tailwind which is short form
video. Everyone's trying to hire video
editors right now and every video editor
is using Adobe Premiere. They've got a
lot of things going for them and they're
going to start integrating AI. So, I
think Adobe is a buy right now. We've
discussed that. I also think Salesforce
is a buy. It fell around 11% at first.
It kind of recovered again. We'll see
how it trades in the next few days. You
got to move quickly here. It could be
that by the time this episode airs, it's
it's back up, but it's down 45% in the
past year, trading at 27 times earnings.
Its 5-year average is 73. It's growing
at double digits. Its RPOS are up 12%.
Again, this is like a massive enterprise
SAS company, which again has really
large modes. My third pick that I've
bought is Service Now. Uh, trading at
nine times sales, five-year average of
16. Uh, people just assume AI's killed
it, but again, they're integrating AI.
They've got $1 billion in AI revenue in
the pipeline for 2026. They're
integrating with Anthropic and Open AI.
They've signed contracts with these
companies. So, those are some buys that
I I've gone with. Again, do whatever
you'd like. I I think that these are
good opportunities. And then the other
thing that you could consider right now
is just like buying the ETF which is
called IGV just the whole software ETF.
But my view is you know it's possible
that there are going to be some losers
here. So I think it's better to go in
and start picking some winners. Um but
that's what I've gone for. I also would
have gone for Microsoft as well but most
people have just huge amounts of
Microsoft exposure already. Um but
that's gotten pummeled as well. And
again, it doesn't really make sense
because Microsoft owns a huge portion of
OpenAI already. So if OpenAI is going to
kill Microsoft, well, Microsoft already
owns it, so it's going to be totally
fine.
>> I really like your thesis. I was asked,
I didn't think of software companies. I
was asked a couple months ago, what are
the companies that if you had to bet, if
you had to go short companies because of
AI boom, which companies would you pick?
And I picked two. I picked Only Fans.
And I think I told you like 6 months
ago, someone called me and said, "Do you
want to be a part of an investor group
to buy Only Fans?" I'm like, "One, no."
And two, why would you think I'd be
interested in this?
>> And
>> why wouldn't they think you're
interested?
>> I've never I've never I've never signed
up for Anyways, I've never signed up for
a porn site or anything like that.
Although, those gay hockey players from
Harvest Moon or whatever it's called
Rivaly, I would definitely like $4.99 a
minute. I' I'd do that like, "Hey, I
love your program." Um, anyways, I'm I'm
unsubscribing from HBO Max and so I'm
binging the gay hockey thing and I'm
rethinking everything, Ed. I'm
rethinking everything.
Anyways, back to what were we talking
about? Oh, AI. Only Fans. I think it's
[ __ ] I think you're going to be able
to get a really hot person, you know,
doing whatever it is they do on Only
Fans for 3% of the price with AI. And
the other company, it's not really a
software company, it's a research
company. It's the company that acquired
my company. Uh I think Gardner is
[ __ ] And that is every research
report they put out, their events are
still really powerful, but every
research report they put out, I feel
like almost any
uh IT manager or any CTO could get a
similar level of feedback with a fair
with a two-minute prompt. And their
stock at this in the last year, it's off
72%.
My guess is an activist is going to come
in there and say you need to lay off 70%
of the people and use AI and offer have
a kind of a what Figma is to Adobe it is
Gardner's going to need to come up with
a lowerc cost product but I hadn't
thought about the software guys getting
this badly hurt but I if you use Adobe
you're fluent in Adobe it's its own
language
>> it's its own job requirement
>> and we like Figma all the kids are using
Figma design
>> design schools It's also gotten crushed.
>> Gotten crushed.
>> Yeah, I I own Figma. Um anyways, we
should um time stamp this and come back
in 3 6 and 12 months and see uh how
these how these stocks are doing.
Service Now is an interesting one. I've
I've spoken at their conferences. Um but
I don't I don't know that much about the
company.
>> Yeah, it just again massively oversold.
But your Gottner point is an interesting
one because Gartner would be one of
those companies that is in that bucket
of companies that have been absolutely
crushed due to the AI thesis. But this
is where I think stock picking actually
does come in handy and it actually is
useful. I mean, I know that we're
usually pro ETFs, just, you know,
diversified indices, but when something
like this happens where a technology
comes in and it just decimates the whole
narrative of of an industry, and it's
not unreasonable. I mean, the idea that
AI is going to massively disrupt
software is a very reasonable pick. The
point being, there are going to be
winners and losers. It's possible that
there will be losers in this, which is
why you want to go in and figure out,
okay, what are the winners here? Because
right now, everyone is being undervalued
right now. Everyone is getting sold
regardless of what you're doing with
your business. And that's why I think
that's why I I I I've chosen a few names
as opposed to going for the whole bucket
of companies themselves because I do
think it is reasonable to look at what's
happening and say, "Okay, well, this
company isn't taking AI very seriously.
This company's product actually isn't
very differentiated and their
relationships with their enterprises
isn't as strong as some others.
Therefore, this one actually will get
burned." And maybe Gottner is one of
those companies. Um, but it is a moment
where it's like, okay, if everyone's
selling at some point, you do need to go
in there and and start, as Buffett says,
being greedy while everyone else is
fearful. Agreed.
We'll be right back after the break. And
if you're enjoying the show so far, send
it to a friend and please follow us if
you haven't already.
Support for the show comes from
Fundrise. For the past 70 years, there's
been a room in finance that most people
couldn't enter. A room where you could
have invested in some of the biggest
names in tech companies including Airbnb
and Uber before their multi-billion
dollar IPOs. I'm talking about venture
capital. But unless you had millions of
dollars and the right connections, the
door to the venture capital room was
closed. You were stuck waiting in line
with everyone else. But recently,
Fundrise took a sledgehammer to that
door when they launched their venture
capital product and made it available to
anyone with a minimum investment of just
$10. Fundrise says their mission is to
give everyone the chance to invest in
the best tech and AI companies before
they go public. Visit fundrise.com/propg
to check out Fundrise's venture
portfolio and start investing in
minutes. All investments involve risk,
including the potential loss of
principle. Past performance is not
indicative of future results. This is a
paid advertisement.
Support for the show comes from
LinkedIn. It's a shame when the best B2B
marketing gets wasted on the wrong
audience. Like, imagine running an ad
for cataract surgery on Saturday morning
cartoons or running a promo for this
show on a video about Roblox or
something. No offense to our Gen Alpha
listeners, but that would be a waste of
anyone's ad budget. So, when you want to
reach the right professionals, you can
use LinkedIn ads. LinkedIn has grown to
a network of over 1 billion
professionals and 130 million decision
makers according to their data. That's
where it stands apart from other ad
buys. You can target buyers by job
title, industry, company role,
seniority, skills, company revenue. All
so you can stop wasting budget on the
wrong audience. That's why LinkedIn ads
boast one of the highest B2B return on
ad spend of all online ad networks.
Seriously, all of them. Spend $250 on
your first campaign on LinkedIn ads and
get a free $250 credit for the next one.
Just go to linkedin.com/scott.
That's linkedin.com/scott.
Terms and conditions apply.
Support for the show comes from Public,
the investing platform for those who
take it seriously. On Public, you can
build a multi-asset portfolio of stocks,
bonds, and options. And now, generated
assets, which allow you to turn any idea
into an investable index with AI. It all
starts with your prompt. From renewable
energy companies with high free cash
flow to semiconductor suppliers growing
revenue over 20% a year overyear. You
can literally type any prompt and put
the AI to work. It screens thousands of
stocks, builds a one-of-akind index, and
let you back test it against the S&P
500. Then you can invest in a few
clicks. Generated assets are like ETFs
with infinite possibilities. Completely
customizable and based on your thesis,
not someone else's. Go to
public.com/provg
and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you
transfer your portfolio. That's
publicub.com/provg.
Paid for by public investing brokerage
services by open to the public investing
inc. Member FINRA and SIPC. Advisory
Services by Public Advisors LLC SEC
registered advisor. Generated assets is
an interactive analysis tool. Output is
forformational purposes only and is not
an investment recommendation or advice.
Complete disclosures available at
public.com/disclosures.
We're back with Profy Markets. It was a
busy week in the entertainment industry.
Disney finally named its next CEO, Josh
Demorro. He is the head of its
experiences division. He'll take the
helm from Bob Iger next month.
Meanwhile, Netflix and Warner Brothers
Discovery executives were on Capitol
Hill defending their planned mega
merger. What started as an antitrust
hearing quickly veered into a broader
fight over political bias. Senator Eric
Schmidt went as far as as accusing
Netflix of producing quote the wokest
content in the history of the world. So
Scott, we've got uh leadership shakeup
at Disney, new CEO going to replace Bob
Wiger, and then we had this antitrust
hearing in Washington
uh investigating the the acquisition of
Warner Brothers Discovery. Let's start
with the antitrust hearing and let's
start with just some of the highlights
from that hearing. Let's play a clip.
Sen Ali, Netflix has no political agenda
of any kind. I can tell you that.
>> Well, then why is your children's
program so full of this highly
sexualized, highly controversial,
highly controversial agenda? I don't I
don't I don't understand it. It seems
strange to me.
>> Um, respectfully, sir, it's because it's
inaccurate. We have millions of hours of
children's programming. I get
>> You're saying it's not there. You You
don't You don't have trans You don't
feature trans characters, trans story
lines, trans themes. It's not in your
programming. I'm saying we feature a
wide variety of stories and programs to
meet a wide variety of people's tastes.
>> Why is almost half of it Why does almost
half of your children's program feature
this highly controversial, highly
sexualized material? Why? That that just
seems strange to me.
>> Netflix content is synonymous
for the modern phenomenon of race
swapping, both historical and real and
fictional characters. Netflix, it
continues to push sexual and gender
theory on kids. And maybe this is what
was being referred to earlier. 41% of
G-rated kid approved series contain
LGBTQIA+
content.
>> You have a wide range of programming on
HBO. Name one program that is designed
to appeal to conservatives.
>> We don't design our programming to
appeal to
>> I can think of a lot that are designed
to go to liberals. Name one. Let me ask
you, do you think CNN is fair and
balanced?
>> Sir, I I'm not involved with CNN and in
fact they're not part of this
transaction.
>> Uh remind you this was an antitrust
hearing. Scott, your reactions.
>> JD Vance goes to Europe and lectures EU
leaders on their lack of free speech.
And now the Republican party is claiming
that private companies
have an agenda and they're not allowed
to. So, so to be fair, CNN is biased.
Fox is biased and private media
companies are allowed to have a bias
because consumers have a bias.
Netflix is probably the most politically
neutral of all of them. They were
getting [ __ ] two years ago for airing
Dave Chappelle because progressives were
freaked out about what they felt were
anti-trans comments. So which is it? I
know Ted Sarandos. For the life of me, I
could not figure out what Ted Sarandos's
politics are. And I think he wants to
keep it that way. So this notion somehow
and also I don't even need to know the
data and I know that it's [ __ ] that
50% of kids content features an LGBTQ.
That is not their agenda. But that's
just they they're just trying to get
kids to spend more and more time
watching Netflix. They're not they don't
have a they don't have any sort of
agenda along those lines. And even if
they did, guess what? They're allowed
to. The antitrust is a real issue here.
And that is if Netflix also owns HBO, do
they consolidate the market at the
high-end artal subscription content?
That's a real issue. If Paramount/CBS
is allowed to own CNN and Tik Tok, is
that also an antitrust concern? That's a
real issue. But this is what's going on.
The Ellison's give money to Republican
lawmakers. The Ellison's are trying to
come up with a reason for Netflix to not
be able to acquire Time Warner. And so
they are jinning up a bunch of
Republican senators to create some sort
of controversy or reason why Netflix
should not be able to acquire Time
Warner. There are reasons why neither
Paramount CBS/ the Ellison should be
allowed to acquire it. There are reasons
Netflix should not be allowed to acquire
it. They are antitrust. It has nothing
to do with the bias or the lack thereof
of their content. And this is senators
Holly and I forget the other guy who are
just [ __ ] coin operated who've been
told by the Ellison's we don't want to
have to pay more. So go create
controversy and some sort of bias among
people who have absolutely no ability to
think critically about when regulators
should weigh in and they shouldn't.
You're Quentyn Tarantino films have a
[ __ ] bias. They're allowed to sell to
whoever they want. This isn't about an
editorial bias. This is about a
concentration of power that would lead
to higher prices, of which there are
real concerns. And Senator Booker
actually thoughtfully tried to address
these concerns. But instead, you have
coin operated senators with the
Ellison's head so far up their ass you
can barely see their legs dangling out
of their asses trying to pretend they
give a flying [ __ ] about free speech and
that somehow Netflix is too progressive.
And the right answer to, oh, CNN doesn't
have a bias. It's more fair and
balanced. He should have said, I believe
it's more fair and balanced than Fox.
And I believe Fox has the right to do
whatever the [ __ ] they want. And people
can decide if they want to watch or or
have advertising. This was supposed to
be about concentration of power that
transfers capital and power from
consumers and workers to shareholders.
That is a real concern from both biders.
But this is how it's supposed to work.
Whoever shows up with the biggest check
gets preapproved for the acquisition and
then there is review across the DOJ, the
FDC and CPHAS around security concerns
and antitrust. Instead, we're thinking
somehow that they're not allowed to have
a bias even when there isn't one.
Anyways, thank you for my TED talk.
>> It's completely ridiculous. And again,
it was a hearing on antitrust and it
just completely devolved into a trial on
wokeness. And I feel like this is yet
another reminder, and I know we say this
all the time, of how stupid these Senate
hearings are. Like, every time the these
hearings happening, it's just a giant
display of political theater. None of it
even matters. And I think it's so funny
that these people, these these
Republican senators default to the
wokeness argument, probably because they
don't really know where to land on the
antitrust argument. Because the trouble
is that you've got all these different
players in here and they don't really
know who to side with because on the one
hand like oh maybe Netflix is woke so
maybe they should be against them but on
the other hand Paramount's controlled by
the Ellison's and the Ellisons are big
tech and but you know historically
they've been against big tech but also
oh wait the Ellison have been donated to
Donald Trump so who are we supposed to
side with? So, it's almost like wokeness
is just the default backup calling card
that you immediately knee-jerk reaction
go to when you don't really know what
the [ __ ] you're talking about. And that
seems to be what has happened in this
Senate hearing, which was supposed to be
again, what do you do when an extremely
large entertainment company is
purchasing another extremely large
entertainment company and most of these
entertainment channels are now going to
be housed under one company that has
like very legitimate and serious
monopoly concerns. There are also decent
arguments on the other side about the
role of YouTube and Instagram and on Tik
Tok and all these digital platforms, but
it's almost like that stuff is boring to
them. They don't really understand that.
That's business stuff. We don't really
care. I'd rather talk about LGBTQ and
transgender actors in children's shows
because that's something that I know my
supporters are really going to get riled
up about. Is it going to have any impact
on the transaction? Is it going to
change the trajectory of monopolization
in America? [ __ ] no. But it doesn't
matter because again, it's all for the
clips. It's all for the drama. It's all
for the show. And this was just another
reminder of that.
>> You know how people say the politicians
are speaking to a crowd of one? Like
whenever Secretary Gnome speaks, she's
just thinking, "Does he want me to say
this? Does he want me to say?" They're
all playing. They're all playing.
>> I haven't. That's good.
>> They're all playing to Senate to
President Trump. Senators Holly and I
forget the other one. They all had an
audience of one, but it wasn't President
Trump.
>> It was Larry Ellison. M
>> and unfortunately the only people who
demonstrate any actual domain expertise
or any fidelity to what the actual
hearing was about was first and foremost
Sen Senator Clolobashar. I mean here's
the thing. If we're going to talk about
affordability, throwing $40 billion at
soybean farmers while pissing off China
and then taking that money and giving it
to Argentina who's now none of this [ __ ]
works. Tariffs are inflationary. Nobody
wants to have an adult conversation. If
you want to bring inflation down,
the two things we need to do, and
there's a variety of things, but the two
biggest things, free trade, get rid of
all these ridiculous tariffs, reduce
tariffs. It'll there'll be some losers.
Some businesses in manufacturing and
services will go out of business in the
US. But eventually, when you protect
your domestic markets, at some point
your competitors abroad own [ __ ]
everything. And then eventually they
come for your lunch. and two massive
antitrust. I'm finally like have enough
money and enough influence right now. I
know I'll have if there's a Democratic
president, I'll know I'll have his ear
and amongst a variety of things, whether
it's whether it's mandatory national
service, $25 an hour minimum wage,
single pay healthcare, whatever it is,
I'm going to push so hard and say the
way you oxygenate the economy, the way
you bring down prices over two, five, 10
years is massive antitrust.
>> As voters, we're lazy. We're looking for
a quick fix. Oh, gas prices are down.
That has nothing to [ __ ] do with us.
That's about shailing Canada. That's
about geopolitics. That's about Saudi
Aramco deciding to open or close or
tighten the spot. That has nothing to do
with anything. If you want prices to
come down, you need massive free and
open trade. And you need specifically to
break up all of these monopolies who are
charging monopoly rents. But nobody
wants to have an adult conversation
around the hard structural work of
actually bringing down prices. Yeah.
>> But the fact and I I hate the fact that
we're talking about these village idiots
who are coin operated at the hands of
the Ellison's as opposed to senators
Clolobashar and Booker who actually want
to talk about the issue at hand.
>> No, I 100% agree. does feel that every
time an antitrust lawsuit comes up or
there is an implication that there could
be potentially monopoly on the table, we
always come up with an excuse as to why
it isn't actually a monopoly. In this
case, it it's the it's the YouTube and
Instagram and Tik Tok argument. The
argument is if YouTube exists and if Tik
Tok exists and if Instagram exists, then
you know they're competing against these
platforms, which you know I I get. I I I
understand that argument and it makes a
lot of sense. However, are we ever going
to have a moment where we decide
actually no, this isn't okay? I mean,
the same thing happened with Google and
the Google antitrust case and then they
decided, oh yeah, you were operating a
monopoly, but AI came along and AI
really destroyed the business and so now
we found another excuse to not have any
antitrust enforcement. It just seems
that every time we come up with some
reason, whether it's wokeness related or
otherwise, as to why we shouldn't be
implementing any form of regulation. And
so, yeah, it's it's not a surprise that
the market looks the way it does because
we've just decided that we don't really
want to do anything about it. Let's also
talk about uh Disney's new CEO, Josh
Dearo. He's the head of parks. He's
going to be taking over on March 18th
when Bob Iger will be stepping down. Uh
he's been working at Disney for 28
years. Um he has been you know crucial
to expanding the Disney experiences
business which is basically their parks
and cruises which is now the core piece
of the business. And this is a whole
other conversation but it is fascinating
how that has changed where the the
highly capital inensive piece of the
business which is operating a theme park
used to be way undervalued by investors
but now the narrative has flipped.
They're less interested in certainly the
linear also kind of the streaming.
They're very excited about the
experiences he's been running that
business. So now he's going to be taking
over as CEO. Do you have any reactions
to this new pick and the end potentially
of the reign of Bob Iger.
>> Bob Iger is the guy that after coming
back from Vietnam a war hero decided to
go back and had his legs blown off. That
was one of the worst personal decisions
in corporate history for him to start
heckling from the cheap seats around his
successor and then convince his board
that he should go back and shed
shareholder value. I mean, it's just
been and a lot of it isn't his fault.
He's basically, you know, the market has
poured honey on him and sent him hunting
for bears. I like that. That's like
something that Brian Williams would say.
That's that's like having a moose in a
convertible. Um, anyways, the
Why does that make me happy? Uh,
look,
this company will have an overhang. This
is also a buy. This company's going to
have an overhang until they're able to
get rid of their linear stuff. And that
is, you know, Disney, Nat Geo, ABC,
because in a conglomerate structure, and
I experienced this at the New York Times
where I was on the board at for two
years. I don't know if you knew that,
but
>> wow.
>> Yeah, I know. It's very impressive. So,
but here's the bottom line. We had some
great assets. We owned 17% of the Red
Sox. We had we owned the seventh tallest
building in the world. We owned a really
outstanding media company called the New
York Times. And then we had all these
shitty regional papers that were a
melting ice cube. And what happens in a
conglomerate business model? We also
owned about.com. Anyway, what happens in
a conglomerate model with stuff that
makes no sense? The market hates it and
the market finds the shittiest business
and assigns that multiple the entire
business. And essentially every every
analyst report and Q&A and earnings call
or the investor relations or Bob Iger on
a call it goes something like this.
Parks unbelievable business with an
incredible mode around it. Film studio
doing well creating IP that is drafted
into our parks singular experience. No
one can compete with our parks. If you
don't take your kids to a $1,400 a night
shitty hotel with shitty food and take
them to Disneyland four or five times by
the time they're 10, someone's going to
call child services on you. Disney
streaming is getting some leverage. It
has singular positioning around family.
You know, people say they've missed
stuff and they've missed trends. I don't
buy that. I think Disney still does a
great job with their IP. Very talented
people, outstanding culture.
all of it's great and then they have to
go but our linear platform showed 8%
decline in revenues and 14% decline in
EPS as soon as they shed that [ __ ] and
go good bank bad bank or sell it to a
consolidator and it's all about the
parks and it's all about the experiences
cruises and the streaming and the studio
this company goes up substantially in
value Disney is at a 10-year low and Bob
has clearly had the for sale sign out on
those networks, but I don't think he's
gotten no one has offered him probably
the price he wants. He probably has an
unrealistic view of the value of ABC on
ESPN. By the way, ESPN used to be the
cash cow for Disney just to tell you how
much things have changed. The other
thing is I wonder if the last 6 months
are going to be awful because the fact
that he's leaving, he's actually leaving
ahead of schedule says to me that he
looked at the back half of the year and
went, "Oh, [ __ ] I don't want to be
around for this."
>> So, and by the way, I loved your
interview with Rich Greenfield. I always
learned when I listened from Rich. And
uh uh you had him on you had him on
markets, right? When did you have Rich
on?
>> We had Rich on on last week. That's
right.
>> You you do this some days when I'm not
on.
>> Anyways, that's what you call scale. By
the way, see all the all the stuff
behind me?
>> I do. I do. I love it.
>> How awesome is that?
>> It's great.
>> Oh, and who noticed it first, by the
way? And why?
>> Who noticed it first? I don't know.
>> Let me go this way. Who's not up here?
>> Who's not up there?
>> Cara Swisser. She gave me so much [ __ ]
I'm like, let's be honest, Cara,
>> let's go.
>> You're my ex-wife. These are all my
Bellarian hookers. I am so down. These
people are making me money, giving me
more joy, and you're just the first
wife.
>> Oh, man. Bellarian hooker.
>> I can't afford the Russian hoes. I go
for the Bellarians.
Anyways, that's probably a hate crime.
Um, this is
>> Don't worry about it.
This is Disney is I think an undervalued
asset. The parks guy is the right pick.
These things are they're going to I
believe the back half of the year might
be rough for them because of our head up
your ass tariff economic warfare against
our strongest ally Canada. Anyways, the
park's amazing, the film studio amazing.
The streaming media company is starting
to get real momentum. They have to get
rid. And by the way, the new the new co,
whether it's the independent, whether
it's just bad bank and they spend them
out on their own or someone consolidates
them, that will also be a good stock to
own because it's a different complexion
of capital. As long as you reduce costs
faster than revenue declines, you can
you can churn out and consolidate all
the other cable guys. I think that's
going to be a good stock. But until they
do this good bank, bad bank, it's always
going to be assigned a multiple of a
shitty cable outsported company that is
not growing. And the reality is Disney
is growing. I believe if the new CEO
sold all of the linear, all of the
linear, right, Nat Geo, ESPN, ABC, I
think if they sold it for a dollar, the
stock would go up.
>> I think I agree
>> because everything they're doing is an
apology. Everything is Yeah. But yeah,
yeah, yeah. But the overhang of these
linear networks, the confusion of the
business strategy, the constant
apologizing for the last 20 minutes of
the earnings call is just an enormous
overhang on the stock.
>> 100% agree. I think the question now
being when is it going to happen and
potentially it's going to happen now
that they have a CEO because you know
remember you've been calling this for a
long time. You've been saying this this
is an issue not just in the last few
months or the last year, but I think
you've been saying this for for years
now. They have to get rid of the linear
assets. Um I would imagine that
everyone's going to be hammering on Josh
Dear's door demanding the same thing. So
I wonder if now that we've got a new CEO
in the building, is it actually going to
be possible? Um perhaps you have a
prediction on if this is actually going
to happen or not. But I will also the
question, do you think it's gonna happen
in the next, say, 12 months?
>> The good bank, bad bank, the sale of the
linear assets.
>> Yeah.
>> Oh, they've been for sale for two years.
Um, it's just a question of who can show
up with an offer. And I'm I imagine
there's probably some content or I don't
know, who knows, creative contracts that
are sort of trying to, you know, unsess
or unfry or unscramble an egg. But these
it's not a matter of if, it's just when.
Uh, so and I think they were probably
hoping they'd get a better price for
ESPN and they just never got the number
they wanted. But absolutely this guy has
typically what happens with a new CEO,
you can do almost anything and your
board just rubber stamps it. You have a
honeymoon period. So whenever you have a
new CEO, you want to say to him, "Boss,
okay, go hard. Go early because you have
license to do whatever the [ __ ] you want
right now." He should do it if he can do
it right away. do it immediately. By the
way, it's starting to sound like forced
seller territory. And I mean, it's it
there's two options. Either you sell it
to a private entity or you spin it and
you take it to the public markets. But,
you know, we saw what happened with
Versent. They did the spin. It went
terribly. The stock's been absolutely
crushed. So, I wonder if they're going
to be looking for uh a private buyer.
Either way, it seems like they have to
sell. It's making me think that you need
to put a consortium together and make
them a a somewhat measly offer that they
must accept.
Um, I feel like that could be an awesome
investment.
>> At 4.3 billion, it's one-year returns.
It's off 35%. You're right. Someone's
Yeah, someone needs to roll up these
things and make a go of it. It's um I
don't
these actually can be really good
stocks. Cable news is still a good I
think what they also might be waiting
for and I'd be curious to get Rich's
view on this. Typically these companies
lose money. It's like the the dirty
secret especially retail is they lose
money for 48 weeks and then for four
weeks from Thanksgiving to Christmas
they just print money. I think in some
of these cable news, I don't know if
Disney owns local stations or not, but
they make a [ __ ] ton of money around the
election
and that guy
uh that guy who hosts ABC News and also
the fact that CBS News went from 5
million viewers a night to 4 million
probably hasn't held the value of ABC.
So, my guess is my guess is they keep
thinking, "All right, someone's offered
us." The problem is the only buyers
right now are smart.
>> That's good. You should be one of those
smart buyers. Yeah, but the problem with
smart buyers is they want to pay market
value. What what he's looking for is
some drunk kid with a rich father to
come in and overpay for the thing. He's
hoping for a sky dance paramount Warner
Brothers like valuation and no one's
going to give him that cuz all the
people who will buy these linear assets
actually have calculators and they want
and to be fair these things it's very
dangerous right now. CNN
just I think CNN's viewership is off 30
or 40% yearon year. So they keep waiting
for a better price and every day the
price probably gets worse. So yeah, at
some point I think you're right. I think
there's probably is an opportunity for a
PE player to come in and say, "Here's a
shitty shitty offer. You must take it."
>> Well, I'm sure they've already had
those. or for or for Versant to come in
uh and and take this out. But any any
price at this point is a creative
to the core business in terms of
shareholder value. I'm excited to see
what happens for the next
>> the next 12 to 24 months. I think it's a
buy here. I like this. I can never find
value anywhere. I like your idea around
these software stocks that may have been
overpunished. And I do think Disney is
an opportunity. Disney's going to have
usually usually don't get an activist
with a new CEO because they like to give
the guy the benefit of the doubt as a
honeymoon phase. But I wouldn't be
surprised if someone a pelt-like figure
or somebody is taking is taking is
starting to acquire or aggregate shares
here. If this thing keeps going down,
somebody's going to show up.
>> Josh Dear just needs to pray on either a
drunk child of a billionaire showing up
or a Saudi crown prince of some kind.
>> Saudi can't own it. Gano own ABC News.
>> Fair enough. We'll see. But fair enough.
>> I think they should have that anchor. I
forget that guy. He looks ethnically
ambiguous. I think they should have him
do the evening news with his shirt off
if they want to juice ratings. That
guy's dreamy. I'd like to see him take
up hockey and [ __ ] a bunch of dudes in a
locker room. Is that wrong, Ed?
>> Not wrong. I think that's your I think
that might be your your fifth heated
rivalry mention in the last couple
weeks. I'm starting to think that you
are binge watching this and watching it
again.
You watch four episodes of that thing in
a row. You rethink everything, Ed. You
rethink.
>> I can't wait.
>> Everything.
>> Okay, let's move on to our final story
here.
>> That was a good segue. Let's get him off
the gay hockey. Let's get him off back
price earnings
and trust here.
>> Anything quick.
>> Go to commercial.
We'll be right back. And for even more
markets content, sign up for our
newsletter at profarkets.com/subscribe.
Support for the show comes from Monarch.
What are your financial goals this year?
Are you saving for a down payment? Is
this the year you finally get out of
debt? Or maybe you want to take that
bucket list vacation. Whatever your
goals are, there's only one way you'll
get there. Set yourself up for financial
success this year.
Monarch is the all-in-one personal
finance tool designed to make your life
easier. It brings your entire financial
life, budgeting, accounts, investments,
net worth, and future planning together
in one dashboard on your phone or
laptop. Feel aware and in control of
your finances this year. And get 50% off
your Monarch subscription with code
markets. And Monarch makes it easy to
share your finances with a partner. You
can view your assets together and
individually. And according to their
data, the company reports that seven out
of 10 of their members say using Monarch
improved their financial conversations
with their partners. Set yourself up for
financial success in 2026 with Monarch,
the all-in-one tool that makes proactive
money management simple all year long.
Use code markets at monarch.com for half
off your first year. That is 50% off
your first year at monarch.com with code
markets.
Support
for the show comes from Vanta. If you're
a business owner, you may have noticed
that both risk and regulation are
ramping up. And customers expect proof
of security just to do business. And
demonstrating trust to customers and
prospects is critical to closing deals.
But it can also be costly, time
inensive, and complex. Vanta says that's
where they come in. Vant automates your
compliance process to bring compliance,
risk, and customer trust together on one
AI powered platform. They automate the
process of achieving and maintaining
compliance with over 35 security and
privacy frameworks including SOCK 2,
ISO27001
and HIPPA. This helps companies get
compliant fast and remain compliant,
opening doors to next level growth
opportunities and printing up valuable
time. And Vant doesn't just help you
check boxes. It helps you build real
trust at scale with continuous
monitoring, real-time reporting, and
security reviews you can share
instantly. Vanta makes it easy to prove
your security posture to customers,
partners, and investors. So instead of
scrambling for audits and spreadsheets,
you get a system that works in the
background, keeping you compliant,
reducing risk, and helping your business
move faster with confidence. You can get
started at mana.com/markets.
That's v-
na.com/markets.vanta.com/markets.
We're back with Profy Markets. Anthropic
used the Super Bowl to take a shot at
OpenAI and it worked. The company
dropped its ad early, building buzz
before the game and reminding everyone
that the Super Bowl is still one of the
biggest marketing stages there is.
>> How do I communicate better with my mom?
>> Great question. Improved communication
with your mom can bring you closer. Here
are some techniques you can try. Start
by listening. Really hear what she's
trying to say underneath her words.
Build conversation from points of
agreement. Find a connection through
shared activity, perhaps a nature walk.
Or if the relationship can't be fixed,
find emotional connection with other
older women on Golden Encounters, the
mature dating site that connects
sensitive cubs with Roaring Cougars.
>> What?
>> Would you like me to create your
profile?
>> For our audio listeners, the tagline at
the end reads, "Ads are coming to AI,
but not to Claude." As a reminder, Open
Eye recently announced that it would
begin testing ads on Chad GBT. That news
caused a stir online as Sam Alman once
described ads as quote a last resort for
us as a business model. So Scott,
big win for Anthropic. This ad went mega
mega viral. Everyone is dunking on
OpenAI. Everyone's making fun of OpenAI
with these ads. Sam Alman had a pretty
hilarious and pathetic tweet that he put
out which we can get into. Let's start
with your initial reactions.
>> It used to be that the right commercial
could change a business's trajectory.
When Hyundai came out with this
commercial saying seven-year warranty,
you know, Coca-Cola's occasionally
there's an ad that is so breakthrough
and grabs people emotions, it just
juices sales and rejuvenates the
company. That almost never happens
anymore because people aren't watching
the audiences become so fragmented and
people immediately go on their social
graph or online and do diligence on
whether this product actually is worth
it or not. This is
the biggest moment in broadcast
advertising as it relates to impact on
the markets we've seen in a long time.
This is the moment that Anthropic begins
an ascent in valuation past open AI. And
in my course on brand strategy, we have
a bunch of different models and
constructs for evaluating brand and
strategy. And one of them I call lading.
And that is you say we're this, they're
this, and you find points of
differentiation that pass three hurdles.
Differentiation, are we truly different?
Relevance. Does anyone care? And three,
is it sustainable? So, we're Democrats.
We're for bodily autonomy, therefore
denying a woman's rights. Is it
differentiated? Yeah, we are truly
different on this. Is it relevant? No.
We'd like to think it is, but family
planning and abortion rights never show
up at the ballot box as much as we'd
like to think it's going to happen this
time. And is it sustainable? Can we own
it?
Anthropic has done lading here. They've
said, "Okay, we're not going to have
ads."
That is a point of differentiation
because the number one use case for AI
at corporations is what, Ed?
>> Um,
>> very good, Ed. Okay, we'll go we'll all
go by service now. But anyway, so
>> I don't know.
>> What's the answer?
>> It's therapy.
>> Oh, therapy.
>> People are revealing their most intimate
questions and concerns to AI. And the
thought that this person is going to
take all your personal information and
start saying, "Oh, you seem to be
suffering from depression. Have you
thought about Lexapro from Hoffman Lar
Ro?" I mean, you know what you're
getting with Google. You know that
they're going to take you to a place
they can further monetize and mix in
some utile information. We have been
opening up so much about our most
personal information to AI that the
thought that they're going to put in
ads, it really is different. Anthropic
has said, "No, we're not going to do
that. It's hugely relevant to people
because people are already scared and
worried about AI and the thought that
they're going to start taking all of our
history and all of our most intimate
secrets to to prostitute us to
advertisers. And it's also most likely
sustainable. I think it'll be difficult
for Sam Alman to go back on it because
he has all these growth projections he
has to live up to, including going back
on his word and saying he wasn't going
to do porn. Now he's saying he's going
to do porn. And the execution here
around these ads. Oh my god. This is
this is Weeden Kennedy like you know
Nike ad material. These whoever did
these ads this ad is going to get if the
if the Super Bowl is like the Super Bowl
usually is. It's a shitty game. This ad
is going to get more attention than the
than the game itself. This is a pivotal
moment that still shows that advertising
can be relevant. Whoever is the agency
here, their phone is ringing off the
hook. They're getting they're getting
there's always kind of a hot agency for
a while that that they do a great ad
campaign and people under the illusion
that these guys if we bring in these
people and they wear black and they
party with us and they're really
attractive so we'll spend we'll waste a
lot of money on them that they can
rejuvenate our business. This is a big
moment for for um Anthropic and this
execution.
They've already gotten 10 times the ROI
on this Super Bowl commercial before
it's even run. This is I'm I'm blown
away, Ed. I'm totally blown away. 100%.
Sam's response was hilarious. He put out
an essay on Twitter. This is Sam Alman,
the CEO of OpenAI. He said, quote, first
the good part of the Anthropic ads. They
are funny and I laughed, but I wonder
why Anthropic would go for something so
clearly dishonest. He goes on to say, "I
guess it's on brand for anthropic double
speak to use a deceptive ad to critique
theoretical deceptive ads that aren't
real, but a Super Bowl ad is not where I
would expect it. We are committed to
broad democratic decision-making in
addition to access. One authoritarian
company won't get us there on their own
to say nothing of the other obvious
risk. It is a dog blah blah blah blah
blah. No one [ __ ] cares." Sam Hman,
he got roasted and he's trying to make
this argument that, you know, it's not
true how they're portraying the ads in
chat GBT. We're not going to be
surreptitiously putting the ads in there
and trying to recommend them while
you're doing your therapy, which may be
true. Maybe the ads will be a lot better
than that. Maybe it'll be a lot less
dystopian than Anthropic has suggested
with this ad. Point is, no one [ __ ]
cares. It was a good ad. It was funny
the way that they even nailed down the
voice of chat GBT, which is this like
awkward, monotonous, sickopantic, very
annoying voice that everyone has gotten
sick of. Like, it's just a good ad. And
they they clearly are demonstrating they
have their their finger on the pulse
here, and that's all that matters. And
so for Sam Hman to come out and give
this essay on on critiquing the the
details of this of this ad, it's like
this is some of the worst PR uh coms
that we've ever seen. And I mean it just
rubs salt into the wounds. Anthrop
everyone's turning on Open AI. Anthropic
is emerging as the winner. You said that
this was like the coming of age moment
for anthropic. I totally agree. For me,
it it it has parallels to the the Apple
ad, the 1984 Apple ad, which was
regarded by many as like the greatest
commercial of all time, also aired
during the Super Bowl, and also took a
direct shot at a competitor, which at
that time was IBM. And the whole idea
was saying through, you know,
undertones, the the sort of subtext of
the ad was that IBM is big brother.
They're going to have this mind control.
They're trying to take over the world.
Apple's going to be the company that
liberates you with personal computers.
>> On January 24th, Apple Computer will
introduce Macintosh and you'll see why
1984 won't be like 1984.
>> It's just a good ad. It's like a good
message. It's something that resonates.
That's exactly what Anthropic has done.
Um, and you know, I said a few months
ago, I think you agreed
anthropic is going to be the heavyweight
champion uh of AI in 2026.
The narrative on AI is beginning to
waver. And a trillion dollar AI spending
plan, it just isn't quite what it used
to be. It doesn't sound as sexy as it
did, say, 12 months ago. And that may
well mean pain for open AI, which has of
course been leading this charge. But
more importantly, it might mean new
opportunities, opportunities for other
companies that are taking a different
approach. It might mean the beginning of
the rise of a new heavyweight champion,
a new AI winner. It does look like that
winner could well be anthropic. And I
feel like this is kind of the moment
where everyone realized, yeah, this is
actually happening.
>> I don't think Alman was well advised
here. I think he should have said,
when you're the market leader and
they're still the market leader, you
don't reference the competition.
>> Yes. Don't say
>> never talk about them. And if he'd been
asked about it, he should have said,
"I've seen it. It's a great ad." That's
it. That's it. Because anything beyond
that looks defensive.
>> Totally agreed. and he might put out a
separate release talking about, okay, I
want to clarify some things around our
ads, what they will be used for, what
they won't be used for, where they can
add value. Anything around medical
information, anything around
relationships, we will not be inserting,
you know, but when you respond to the
number two player, which they still are
right now, you're basically saying, I'm
scared.
You know, Herz never referenced Avis.
Coke never referenced Pepsi. You don't
ever reference your competition when
you're the number one player. And he
just comes across he comes across as
defensive and uh you know, he's been
caught flat-footed. I get it. But he
should his only his only thing should
have been, "Yeah, of course I saw the
ad. I think they I think they did a
great job. Good for them. Nothing more."
and then maybe give it some distance and
then put out something about all right
let's talk about our advertising what it
will be used for what it won't why we
think it's such an incredible
opportunity to add value to our customer
base why it'll be a huge revenue
opportunity let's be honest and what
what it will not be used for such that
you can you know if you're talking about
we will we will not take pharmaceutical
ads I'm obsessed whenever I get any of
my health information I upload it to
chat GPT I want to know there's no
pharmaceutical
influence here telling me, oh, okay, you
you know, whatever it is, you have
shoulder pain. I just don't want I want
to know that they're doing their best to
give me I mean, AI should be the clean,
well-lit place of the internet to a
certain extent around information. It it
gets it wrong, but their heart should be
in the right place. So, yeah, this is
this is a seinal I believe this is a
seminal moment. I believe that when we
look back on this, this will be seen as
a big moment in the the AI wars.
>> Would you agree this could be like the
1984 Apple ad moment? I feel like that
was Apple's moment in the in the
computer revolution. I mean, this is it,
right?
>> It's a great analogy. This is that kind
of landmark broadcast advertising
moment.
>> It's very exciting. It's also kind of
interesting to see the return of
advertising, which I feel like people
have been sort of counting out that
advertising is kind of dead or it's
boring. And you know, the Mad Men era is
over, but it's kind of fun and exciting
to see what a great ad can do for your
business. I mean, we'll see what the ROI
will actually be, but it's already
gotten millions of views, and this is
before it was actually aired on the
Super Bowl. This was that just the
pre-release. They just posted it on
social media, got millions of views
across the internet in literally under
24 hours. And I find it exciting and
cool. But I'm sure if you're working at
an ad agency, it's also fun and exciting
and cool to see just such a good clearly
created by humans as well. Like this was
clearly someone who's used Chat GPT a
lot, who understands the nuances and
annoyances of the product. Like this is
a very human commercial and they've come
out there and they've put it out there.
It's resonated so much with so many
people. It does feel like this is kind
of like the resurgence of the golden age
of advertising. And I just love that
it's going to be on the Super Bowl,
which of course is, you know, the the
grand stage for advertisers around the
world. By the way, the the creative
partner, it was produced by Anthropic,
but the creative agency is a group
called Mother, uh, which is
independently owned. It's not owned by
one of the conglomerates. This is going
to be, my guess is the next year they'll
sell cuz they'll everyone will want to
talk to them and they'll realize it's
the right time to cash out. By the way,
let's bring this back to me, Ed. And um
>> please.
>> And when I was right out of business
school, I met this guy named Warren
Helman, and I'd started Profit, my brand
strategy firm, and he said, "I've got a
great assignment for you." And he goes,
"I'm going to pay you to go to Levi
Strauss and company board meetings, and
I don't want you to speak to anybody. I
don't want you to be politicized, and at
the end of the board meeting, I want you
to stand up and give us your honest,
thoughtful advice." And I was like 29. I
mean, that's a dream job, right? And
they invited two other people for their
unfiltered advice for the next two years
of board meetings. They invited a guy
named Leo Lee Clow who was head of TBWI
day and a guy named Nigel Bogle from the
hot agency of that time, BBH.
And we listen to the whole board meeting
and then we'd each get 20 minutes to
just stand up and give our piece. And
so it was a strategy guy, yours truly,
and two um creative guys, agencies. I
haven't seen an adman in a board meeting
in 20 years. No one gives a [ __ ] what
agency people think anymore. And if you
go to I've been going to CAN for a long
time. Every year the amount of beach
space, the fabulousness of the parties
gets smaller and smaller for WPP, IPG,
Omnicom, Havas, and it gets bigger for
the tech guys. I mean, the lack of
intellectual currency and influence of
the ad market is just it's just
shriveled up and gone away. It's
striking how how little people care
about their viewpoints. Ad agencies used
to be in every strate strategy meeting.
They used to be seen as a key thought
partner. Now, literally, no one gives a
[ __ ] what they think.
>> But maybe this is going to change
things. Probably not, but maybe
>> this is a blip. This will mother's going
to get a ton of business, unearned
business, because everyone will be like,
"We hired the same agency that did the
anthropic ads and then they're going to
sell to one of the big conglomerates and
go open a bar in the Bahamas or
something." That's what I would do.
That's what I would do. Start a hockey
team. I love that. Okay, let's take a
look at the week ahead. We'll see the
employment report and consumer price
index for January. We'll also see
earnings from Apollo, Lowe's, Coca-Cola,
BP, Spotify, CVS, Robin Hood, Ford,
McDonald's, Shopify, and Airbnb. The
earnings continue to roll in. Scott, do
you have any predictions? We've already
made it. In 12 months, Anthropic is
going to be worth more than OpenAI.
Uh, this is this is a big moment.
Anthropic has gone after the enterprise
market. Smart move. Open AAI has kind of
dominated consumer. Sort of the analogy
I would use is 25 years ago, Dell versus
Gateway and Gateway went uh consumer and
Dell went small mediumsized business. We
know how that turned out. Uh Anthropic
has gone enterprise, open AI has built a
consumer business and I think there's
been a series of missteps at OpenAI. I
think Anthropic is going this way uh up
and open AI is going down and within 12
months uh open I think anthropic's
raising at 350. Open AI claims are
raising at 850 within a year and I don't
know what the relative numbers will be
but in a year anthropic is going to be
worth more than open AAI.
Thank you for listening to Prof Markets
from ProfG Media. Tune in tomorrow for a
fresh take on markets.
Ask follow-up questions or revisit key timestamps.
The discussion covers several key topics: the problematic release of the Epstein files and the public's confusion due to a lack of trusted institutions; the recent sell-off in software stocks, which the speakers argue is an overreaction to AI, presenting a buying opportunity for "dislocated high-quality companies"; significant news in the entertainment industry, including Disney's new CEO and a politically charged antitrust hearing for the Netflix/Warner Bros. Discovery merger; and Anthropic's highly effective Super Bowl ad, which successfully challenged OpenAI and marked a pivotal moment in the "AI wars."
Videos recently processed by our community