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Did AI Just Kill Software? | Prof G Markets

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Did AI Just Kill Software? | Prof G Markets

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2011 segments

0:00

Today's number 1 million. That's the

0:02

total number of domain names registered

0:04

as of last month. Uh Ed, true story. As

0:07

I'm trying to unsubscribe because of

0:09

resist and unsubscribe, I unsubscribe

0:11

from Amazon one, their healthcare

0:13

offering. And I don't know if they're

0:15

listening to me and using it across

0:16

their other domains, but whenever I go

0:17

to Amazon Prime now, it suggests

0:19

erectile dysfunction socks.

0:23

Okay. You don't like that one? Fine. Uh,

0:25

instead of getting a doctor for a same

0:27

day appointment, it gives me a picker

0:29

from a warehouse named Kyle. I told it I

0:32

had Crohn's and it suggested just turn

0:34

your body off and on real fast. See what

0:36

happens.

0:43

>> How are you, Ed?

0:43

>> I'm doing very well. How are you doing,

0:44

Scott?

0:45

>> I feel very exposed. This resist and

0:47

unsubscribe thing. A lot of people are

0:48

saying it's inspiring and a lot of

0:50

people are saying that I should have

0:51

been more organized and reached out to

0:53

them. What do they mean? They should

0:55

have reached out to them. These people,

0:56

these politicians who already had a plan

0:59

or

0:59

>> Yeah. Or there's activist groups,

1:02

there's, you know, media personalities

1:05

who are like, well, this isn't, if you'd

1:07

reached out to me or these groups that

1:09

help organize these things. And I'm

1:11

like, the last thing I want to do is get

1:12

on the phone with a bunch of media

1:14

personalities and Brooklynites

1:17

and get their view on whether Netflix

1:19

should be on the list or not. That

1:20

sounds like the seventh circle of hell

1:22

for me. I think that's exactly right.

1:24

And there you have your answer. It was

1:25

the right choice. You don't want to do

1:27

that. That's a pain in the ass. So, you

1:28

did it your way. I think that's the

1:30

right way to do it.

1:30

>> I did it my way. That's right, Ed.

1:32

That's right. And today, I'm speaking,

1:34

no joke, to the senior class president

1:38

and the senior class at a Michigan high

1:39

school such that they're all considering

1:43

collectively unsubscribing from Spotify,

1:45

but they want to speak to me first. I

1:47

have never been so intimidated. I got to

1:50

speak to like 400 seniors at a high

1:53

school about why they should unsubscribe

1:54

from Spotify.

1:56

I think somehow that's going to I'm

1:58

going to end up in the Epstein Files

2:00

because of that.

2:03

By the way, I just want to highlight I

2:05

don't think anyone on our podcast is in

2:07

the Epstein Files.

2:08

>> Actually, you know what?

2:09

>> Oh, have you searched your name?

2:10

>> Yeah. Well, no, I haven't. Cara did. I

2:12

didn't search. I'm not in the Epstein

2:13

files. Cara did and she called me and

2:14

said, "Thank God you're not in the

2:15

Epstein files."

2:16

>> You actually are in the Epstein files.

2:17

But

2:18

>> what? It was an email to Epstein saying,

2:22

"You should read this article." And the

2:25

article quotes Scott Galloway. It's a

2:28

guy, one of his buddies saying, "Hey,

2:29

you should read this this this article

2:31

about, I don't know, valuations in big

2:33

tech or something. It's really good. You

2:35

should check this out." And then in the

2:36

article, it says, "Professor Scott

2:39

Galloway says blah blah blah blah." So,

2:41

you are in the Epstein files, but you're

2:43

in there because Epstein's buddy thinks

2:46

that you have good financial analysis.

2:47

That's right.

2:49

>> Well, there you go.

2:51

>> It is getting to the point though where

2:53

if you're not in the Epstein files, then

2:55

who the [ __ ] are you? You know,

2:57

>> you know what I love? I So, what is it?

2:59

The Overton window has been shifted

3:01

here. I've been seeing all these um sex

3:05

workers on TikTok saying that uh who's

3:09

not in the Epstein files? Hunter Biden.

3:10

>> We're going to need to audit your

3:12

algorithm soon, but please continue.

3:14

>> Hunter Biden loved two things. He loved

3:15

crack cocaine and having sex with grown

3:18

women. And he looks wholesome now. He

3:21

looks He only did meth and he banged sex

3:24

workers who were actual adult women. And

3:26

he looks like some something out of the

3:29

Walton's right now. I love how the

3:32

window has been shifted. And remember

3:34

Larry Summers, I mean, he was just

3:35

associated with the Epstein files. He

3:37

had to step down from all of his

3:38

positions. He steps down from the board

3:39

of OpenAI. Now, it turns out there are

3:42

hundreds of Larry Summers out there. But

3:44

there are so many at this point, it's

3:46

sort of like the the flooding the zone

3:48

with [ __ ] You just flood the zone with

3:50

so many creeps that now being creepy

3:52

doesn't matter anymore.

3:52

>> What we need is an institution to go

3:54

through these millions of pages and say,

3:56

"This is what warrants public scrutiny.

3:57

This is what warrants a grand jury and

3:59

an indictment." Exactly.

4:00

>> And this this is what doesn't warrant

4:02

public scrutiny.

4:04

>> And so everything's being mixed

4:07

together. I mean, everyone's talking

4:08

about Dr. for Petia. I think he's a

4:11

[ __ ] distraction.

4:12

>> Totally agree.

4:13

>> The cabinet members and the president

4:16

and someone people have committed child

4:18

rape. Those are the people we should be

4:20

talking about.

4:21

>> 100%.

4:22

>> Anyways, I I find the whole thing

4:25

another example of how people don't

4:27

appreciate how much benefit we got from

4:31

institutions we could actually trust.

4:32

There's no institution we trust to

4:34

review this and parse out the parse out

4:37

what is credible information that

4:40

warrants discovery and other information

4:43

that's just stupid gossip that's going

4:44

to do nothing but create headaches for

4:46

people for no [ __ ] reason. And it

4:48

almost seems intentional to mix them all

4:50

together. Even the redactions which

4:52

don't really make any sense. I mean they

4:54

said that they had a rule for the

4:56

redactions which was supposed to be

4:58

victims and children. But then you go

5:00

through and you see actually a lot of

5:01

these redactions don't make any sense at

5:02

all. You have redactions of people who

5:04

are clearly the perpetrators and they're

5:07

just blacking out their name. So then

5:09

you just you just don't know who sent

5:11

that very very alarming email about

5:14

potentially some sort of pedophilic or

5:18

um creepy just awful behavior. Whatever

5:22

it is, I mean the reductions don't make

5:24

any sense. Um I'm totally with you. this

5:27

whole thing is just a total shitow and

5:30

it seems like that is the point.

5:31

>> Well, the I forget his name, but the guy

5:33

who sort of invented modern propaganda

5:35

for the GRU said that

5:37

uh he said the key is put out lies, put

5:40

out truth whenever Putin or someone else

5:42

is accused of something, put out some

5:44

truth, put out some lies, accuse

5:46

everybody all the time and just make it

5:48

such that people are totally confused

5:50

and just give up and there is no

5:52

objective truth anymore.

5:54

And that's what this is.

5:55

>> And it's working. It's working really

5:57

well,

5:58

>> 100%.

5:59

And because we don't have institutions

6:02

we can trust, they can say, "Okay, we're

6:04

not going to release the names of the

6:05

victims unless they want their names

6:07

released, but if there is an individual

6:10

who is there's credible evidence in

6:12

these files that this person has

6:13

impregnated 11-year-old, we're going to

6:16

let the markets know through a grand

6:17

jury indictment of this person." and the

6:20

the American public has a right to know

6:23

if the president of the United States

6:25

has been mentioned 5700 times or if his

6:29

cabinet secretary of commerce claims

6:32

very stridenly that he wanted nothing to

6:34

do with this guy and still continued to

6:37

have you know I mean even that you could

6:40

argue maybe that's not for public

6:41

discovery or scrutiny but instead

6:43

they've just flooded the zone like

6:45

nothing else and everyone's just

6:47

confused and had it

6:48

>> well we could talk about Epstein files

6:49

for days. But we have some very

6:51

interesting market news to get into

6:53

today. Today we are discussing why

6:54

software stocks sold off last week. Uh

6:58

we're also discussing the future of the

7:00

entertainment industry. We got some

7:02

updates there and also Anthropic's

7:04

unbelievable marketing win with their

7:07

Super Bowl ad. But to start, let's

7:10

discuss what happened to software.

7:12

Software stocks got crushed last week.

7:14

Cloudflare fell 7% at last fell nearly

7:18

9%. Shopify fell 14%. As a whole,

7:23

software companies lost roughly 12% of

7:26

their value in just one week. That

7:28

dragged the NASDAQ 100 into its worst

7:30

3-day slide since Liberation Day.

7:33

Selloff was triggered by a wave of new

7:36

tools that spooked investors. Anthropic

7:38

rolled out industry specific products

7:40

for legal, finance, and customer

7:42

service. OpenAI also launched a more

7:45

powerful multi- aent version of its

7:47

coding tool and a new platform to help

7:49

companies deploy AI agents. Meanwhile, a

7:52

new AI assistant called OpenClaw can now

7:54

execute tasks directly through messaging

7:56

apps like WhatsApp. The fear is that if

8:00

companies can build their own software

8:02

with AI, well then why will you keep

8:03

paying companies to make it for them? So

8:07

Scott, uh just absolute chaos in the

8:11

software market right now. All of the

8:13

big software names are trading down. Uh

8:17

you look at the the software ETF, IGV,

8:21

it's down 20% in the past month. Tons of

8:24

selling happening right now. Um I have a

8:28

view on this and I've actually gone out

8:31

into the market and taken some action,

8:33

but I will start with your reactions to

8:36

what happened last week. Uh and then we

8:38

can get into the details. what you just

8:40

said is thinly veiled way of saying you

8:42

you buy these stocks you think are being

8:44

unfairly punished would be my guess.

8:45

>> Yes.

8:46

>> Um I think what you're going to see is

8:48

is that it's going to put margin

8:51

pressure on these companies and it's

8:53

going to create a new wave of startups.

8:54

I think that we talk about Figma and

8:56

Adobe. Adobe's sort of Mercedes. Figma

9:00

is sort of Toyota. somebody's going to

9:02

come up with BYD and that is they're

9:05

going to use a AI to come up with 80% of

9:08

Adobe for 10% of the price. But at the

9:10

same time, I still think Adobee is going

9:13

to be a cash machine because you'll

9:15

continue to use Salesforce for a long

9:17

time because if you invest all that time

9:18

in understanding the interface and

9:20

getting good at it and your employees

9:22

and your sales teams know how to input

9:24

data into Salesforce,

9:26

unless something is monumentally better

9:29

and it's been mandated from the top

9:31

levels of the company, they're not

9:33

switching over. So I I think you're

9:36

right. These companies have probably

9:37

been overpunished.

9:39

What I think the net net though will be

9:41

is margin compression because there's

9:44

going to be so many startups offering an

9:46

Old Navy version of these software

9:48

platforms at a fraction of the cost from

9:50

overfunded startups where a 2 10 20 30

9:54

person team can spin up a SAS platform

9:59

at a fraction of the cost. It will put I

10:01

think margin pressure on on these folks.

10:05

>> I think margin pressure is exactly

10:06

right. I think that is the danger here.

10:08

What is interesting though is that the

10:10

market's reaction has not been one of

10:13

we're going to see reduced margins or

10:15

we're going to see some more pressure on

10:16

margins. The market's reaction is

10:18

telling us software is dead. AI has

10:21

killed software. So software stocks down

10:25

20% in the past month, just one month

10:27

alone. The forward PE has gone down from

10:31

35 times in 2025 to 20, lowest level

10:35

since 2014. We're seeing huge amounts of

10:38

selling pressure to the point where it's

10:40

kind of obvious now. Like this isn't

10:42

just, oh, we might trim our holdings.

10:44

This is like sell everything. This is

10:46

what we would call panic selling. To me,

10:49

this is very similar to what happened

10:52

when chat GPT came onto the scene. And I

10:56

don't know if you remember what

10:57

happened, but chatbt shows up and

10:59

everyone decides that search is dead

11:01

now. Specifically, Google is dead now.

11:03

And you saw Google stock cratered 40% in

11:07

the year that Chach GBT was released. It

11:09

actually then started to continue to

11:10

slide as more products were announced

11:13

from CHBT. Since it bottomed out, Google

11:17

has obviously been on a massive run.

11:19

They have risen 280%.

11:22

And essentially what they did was they

11:25

learned from Chat GPT. They invested

11:28

more in AI. They integrated AI into

11:30

their products. They came up with their

11:31

own AI product. their search revenue

11:33

actually increased. It's up 50% since

11:36

chatbt was released. They got more usage

11:39

and now Google is

11:42

everyone agrees the winner of AI at

11:45

least for the moment. Um it's now worth

11:47

$4 trillion in market cap. It is sort of

11:51

with Apple competing for second most

11:53

valuable company in the world. And that

11:55

was an example where the market was

11:57

confronted with this new technology that

11:59

really freaked them out and they decided

12:02

that they just were going to do away

12:04

with their models, do away with

12:06

rationality and they just decided [ __ ]

12:08

it, let's sell. That's exactly what

12:10

happened and it it it made Google one of

12:13

the best buys and we recommended it uh

12:16

about a year ago. Similar thing happened

12:18

by the way with with Tik Tok. Tik Tok

12:20

comes onto the scene. It's really

12:22

exciting. It's really popular. Everyone

12:24

decides Instagram is dead. Meta stock

12:26

falls 70%. Then it bottoms out. Then it

12:29

rips up more than 600% in the next few

12:32

years. They come out with a product that

12:34

is very similar to Tik Tok in Instagram

12:36

reels. Now Instagram reels has almost

12:38

the same number of users as Tik Tok

12:40

does. Very similar dynamic. So I think

12:44

that this is the same thing is happening

12:47

here and that is we do have a new

12:49

technology and it could be quite

12:51

disruptive but the amount of selling

12:54

pressure that we're seeing in the

12:55

markets is just indicative of again

12:59

panic chaos confusion and there are many

13:03

reasons why I think software isn't dead

13:07

um you know the first reason would be

13:10

there's nothing stopping these companies

13:12

from integ integrating AI into their

13:14

existing products. I mean, this is the

13:16

same thing we saw with Google. Just

13:18

because Chad GBT comes along doesn't

13:19

mean that Google can't get into AI. In

13:22

fact, that's exactly what they did do

13:24

and it worked really well. The other

13:25

thing that you point out, which I think

13:27

is a massive point that people are not

13:28

really recognizing. If you're going to

13:31

cancel an enterprise contract with a

13:34

software company, say Salesforce, that's

13:37

not like a small deal. That's like a

13:39

gigantic pain in the ass. The switching

13:42

costs are massive. It takes on average

13:45

more than half a year to find a new

13:47

service provider. It also has to go to

13:49

committee. You need to have a bunch of

13:51

people, executives who have to sign off

13:52

on the decision. It also costs money. If

13:55

you're going to terminate the contract,

13:56

then you have to pay 100% of the

13:58

remaining fees. This is something that

14:01

companies do not want to do. You do not

14:03

want to change your enterprise SAS

14:05

provider because it sucks to do it. And

14:08

this by the way is why these companies

14:10

have been such great buyers in the past

14:12

because the moes are gigantic. It's

14:15

always been a thing. The switching costs

14:16

are tremendous. So in order to switch

14:19

from one of those providers, you need to

14:21

have a huge body of evidence to show you

14:24

and to show the committee that yes,

14:26

going with Claude or going with the

14:28

other AI tool is a better idea. The

14:30

other thing they're counting out is the

14:32

trust they have with these companies,

14:34

the relationships they have with these

14:35

companies. They've been working with

14:37

these companies for years. So again, the

14:39

idea that oh, there's a new tool. Oh,

14:41

there's a there's a a new startup that

14:43

they're going to they're going to help

14:45

us with our enterprise SAS. Meanwhile,

14:46

we've been working with these companies

14:48

for years and we trust them and we trust

14:49

their enterprise security. I just don't

14:51

think that it's realistic. I think that

14:53

the selling pressure is way too strong

14:55

right now. I think markets are

14:56

overreacting. To me, this is perfect

14:59

buying opportunity.

15:01

>> I think you're right. And the reality is

15:03

you want your emotions are your enemy.

15:05

And when you hear this news and the

15:07

narrative, and it's a solid one, that AI

15:08

is going to undermine all SAS platforms.

15:11

I get it. You have to be thoughtful

15:13

about valuations. But the analogy I

15:15

would use is that when I went to UCLA,

15:18

everyone talked about the freshman 10.

15:20

And that is the majority of people end

15:21

up in the dorms. I forgot to send in my

15:23

deposit for my dorms, and I was so

15:24

freaked out. My mom was going to freak

15:25

out because she wanted me to move out so

15:27

badly that I rushed a fraternity and

15:29

ended up getting into a fraternity just

15:31

because I needed a place to live. It's

15:33

neither here nor there, but anyways.

15:36

People want to know about my history.

15:38

People want to know what music I was

15:39

listening to in the 80s. RM, Lloyd Cole,

15:42

English Beat, Tom Petty, uh, you know,

15:45

Damn the Torpedoes. It was really

15:47

unfortunate that you weren't born in an

15:48

earlier age yet.

15:49

>> I agree.

15:50

>> They called it the freshman 10. And that

15:51

is you got a meal plan. You paid like

15:54

you paid I don't know, I forget it was

15:56

1,100 bucks and you got three meals a

15:57

day in your dorm. Sprout, Hedrickk,

16:00

whatever. And you just go down, you roll

16:03

down in your pajamas and they had cereal

16:05

and good food. It was all crazy crazy

16:08

fattening.

16:10

And the notion would be okay. And I

16:12

remember even someone writing an article

16:13

saying there's all sorts of different

16:14

options on campus for food. To eat

16:18

somewhere else was a hassle and

16:20

expensive and required a huge change in

16:23

consumer behavior. That's the way I see

16:25

this and that is there might be a new AI

16:28

company that comes out that is a better

16:31

CRM for half the price of Salesforce.

16:34

Good luck trying to get your entire

16:37

sales force to figure out a way to input

16:40

and figure out the interface

16:43

and the mobile application.

16:45

You know, they're going to say, "Fuck

16:47

that. Let's just stick with Salesforce."

16:48

Now, the next time they're negotiating

16:50

next year with a huge site license for,

16:53

I don't know, McKenzie or whoever who

16:55

uses Salesforce to manage all their

16:58

potential clients of people who think

16:59

that someone with a PhD in a Northern

17:00

European accent knows any more about

17:02

their [ __ ] business than they do. The

17:04

procurement department at McKenzie will

17:08

use all of these AI CRM startups to

17:10

negotiate a lower price. Yeah,

17:13

>> but I don't think they're going to swap

17:14

out a cloud flare of all the these

17:17

companies do such a good job of creating

17:20

friction to exit

17:22

>> try to I remember when when I was not

17:25

running but I started my red envelope. I

17:27

think we were using Oracle and

17:29

Broadvision

17:30

>> and Oracle was power was it powering our

17:33

database but trying to switch out of

17:36

Oracle they purposely make it almost

17:39

impossible. Yeah,

17:40

>> these companies do a really good job of

17:42

making it easy for you to sign up, like

17:45

I find when I check out of a hotel, they

17:49

make it so easy for me to pay. They're

17:52

like, "Okay, we've already taken the

17:54

payment." What's really hard is if they

17:56

charge you for breakfast you didn't

17:59

order, it takes, you know, several calls

18:01

and years to get your money back and

18:03

it's not worth it. It's the same thing

18:06

here. These companies will experience

18:09

margin pressure because the procurements

18:10

departments will have a lot of options

18:13

and they'll threaten it, but they're not

18:15

going to tell their 4,000 media part

18:17

department at L'Oreal to start using

18:19

some other um you know software program

18:24

to figure out how to track clients or

18:26

payables or whatever. Right now, these

18:29

companies their revenues are growing and

18:32

they're actually growing at double-digit

18:33

rates. So, it's not that people are

18:35

upset with the product right now. They

18:37

actually like the product and and every

18:39

company that has an enterprise

18:41

relationship with one of these software

18:42

companies, they're going to be trying to

18:44

find reasons to continue the

18:46

relationship because it's too much of a

18:50

pain to get out of it. They don't want

18:52

to do that. In addition, they're going

18:54

to be integrating AI into the products

18:56

themselves. So, it's not like I mean,

18:59

it's not as if Salesforce suddenly

19:02

doesn't have AI. Salesforce is investing

19:04

a lot in AI right now and they're going

19:06

to roll out those products to their

19:07

customers. So I I think it's a lot of

19:10

hysteria over something that is not that

19:13

meaningful and you know it's rare that

19:16

you have these moments where there is

19:17

such

19:19

such momentum in the selling pressure

19:22

among the markets and so I think these

19:25

are the moments where you want to go in

19:26

and buy. Um Mark Mahaney calls these

19:29

kinds of companies DHQs, dislocated

19:32

highquality companies. That is you want

19:34

to find good companies that are

19:35

experiencing some level of dislocation.

19:38

I have a few names that I have bought.

19:42

Um and who knows what will happen to the

19:44

prices cuz the markets are going crazy

19:45

right now.

19:46

>> What did you buy? Inquiring minds want

19:48

to know.

19:48

>> So I bought three stocks. The first

19:50

stock was Adobe. And just a disclosure,

19:53

Adobe has sponsored this podcast in the

19:55

past. I made this pick last week and I

19:58

stand by it. It's down 9% since Monday

20:01

night. It's down nearly 40% in the past

20:04

year, trading at 17 times earnings. The

20:07

S&P average is 29 times earnings. Its

20:10

5-year average, it 5-year PE average is

20:13

37. So, the assumption is AI is just

20:16

going to kill Adobe overnight. But

20:19

again, this is a large enterprise

20:21

company.

20:21

>> Wow. It's at a 5year low.

20:23

>> It's getting absolutely decimated right

20:24

now. but it's used by 98% of Fortune

20:28

500s. We've also talked about this with

20:31

the research team that they have this

20:33

major tailwind which is short form

20:35

video. Everyone's trying to hire video

20:37

editors right now and every video editor

20:39

is using Adobe Premiere. They've got a

20:41

lot of things going for them and they're

20:43

going to start integrating AI. So, I

20:45

think Adobe is a buy right now. We've

20:47

discussed that. I also think Salesforce

20:49

is a buy. It fell around 11% at first.

20:52

It kind of recovered again. We'll see

20:55

how it trades in the next few days. You

20:56

got to move quickly here. It could be

20:58

that by the time this episode airs, it's

21:00

it's back up, but it's down 45% in the

21:03

past year, trading at 27 times earnings.

21:06

Its 5-year average is 73. It's growing

21:09

at double digits. Its RPOS are up 12%.

21:13

Again, this is like a massive enterprise

21:15

SAS company, which again has really

21:17

large modes. My third pick that I've

21:20

bought is Service Now. Uh, trading at

21:22

nine times sales, five-year average of

21:24

16. Uh, people just assume AI's killed

21:28

it, but again, they're integrating AI.

21:30

They've got $1 billion in AI revenue in

21:32

the pipeline for 2026. They're

21:34

integrating with Anthropic and Open AI.

21:36

They've signed contracts with these

21:38

companies. So, those are some buys that

21:41

I I've gone with. Again, do whatever

21:43

you'd like. I I think that these are

21:45

good opportunities. And then the other

21:47

thing that you could consider right now

21:48

is just like buying the ETF which is

21:50

called IGV just the whole software ETF.

21:53

But my view is you know it's possible

21:56

that there are going to be some losers

21:57

here. So I think it's better to go in

21:59

and start picking some winners. Um but

22:02

that's what I've gone for. I also would

22:04

have gone for Microsoft as well but most

22:07

people have just huge amounts of

22:08

Microsoft exposure already. Um but

22:10

that's gotten pummeled as well. And

22:13

again, it doesn't really make sense

22:14

because Microsoft owns a huge portion of

22:17

OpenAI already. So if OpenAI is going to

22:20

kill Microsoft, well, Microsoft already

22:22

owns it, so it's going to be totally

22:24

fine.

22:24

>> I really like your thesis. I was asked,

22:27

I didn't think of software companies. I

22:29

was asked a couple months ago, what are

22:31

the companies that if you had to bet, if

22:33

you had to go short companies because of

22:34

AI boom, which companies would you pick?

22:36

And I picked two. I picked Only Fans.

22:40

And I think I told you like 6 months

22:41

ago, someone called me and said, "Do you

22:43

want to be a part of an investor group

22:44

to buy Only Fans?" I'm like, "One, no."

22:46

And two, why would you think I'd be

22:48

interested in this?

22:51

>> And

22:51

>> why wouldn't they think you're

22:52

interested?

22:53

>> I've never I've never I've never signed

22:55

up for Anyways, I've never signed up for

22:57

a porn site or anything like that.

22:59

Although, those gay hockey players from

23:01

Harvest Moon or whatever it's called

23:03

Rivaly, I would definitely like $4.99 a

23:05

minute. I' I'd do that like, "Hey, I

23:08

love your program." Um, anyways, I'm I'm

23:12

unsubscribing from HBO Max and so I'm

23:15

binging the gay hockey thing and I'm

23:17

rethinking everything, Ed. I'm

23:18

rethinking everything.

23:20

Anyways, back to what were we talking

23:23

about? Oh, AI. Only Fans. I think it's

23:25

[ __ ] I think you're going to be able

23:27

to get a really hot person, you know,

23:30

doing whatever it is they do on Only

23:31

Fans for 3% of the price with AI. And

23:34

the other company, it's not really a

23:36

software company, it's a research

23:37

company. It's the company that acquired

23:38

my company. Uh I think Gardner is

23:41

[ __ ] And that is every research

23:43

report they put out, their events are

23:45

still really powerful, but every

23:46

research report they put out, I feel

23:48

like almost any

23:51

uh IT manager or any CTO could get a

23:55

similar level of feedback with a fair

23:59

with a two-minute prompt. And their

24:01

stock at this in the last year, it's off

24:03

72%.

24:05

My guess is an activist is going to come

24:07

in there and say you need to lay off 70%

24:08

of the people and use AI and offer have

24:10

a kind of a what Figma is to Adobe it is

24:14

Gardner's going to need to come up with

24:15

a lowerc cost product but I hadn't

24:18

thought about the software guys getting

24:20

this badly hurt but I if you use Adobe

24:23

you're fluent in Adobe it's its own

24:27

language

24:28

>> it's its own job requirement

24:30

>> and we like Figma all the kids are using

24:32

Figma design

24:34

>> design schools It's also gotten crushed.

24:36

>> Gotten crushed.

24:37

>> Yeah, I I own Figma. Um anyways, we

24:40

should um time stamp this and come back

24:43

in 3 6 and 12 months and see uh how

24:47

these how these stocks are doing.

24:48

Service Now is an interesting one. I've

24:50

I've spoken at their conferences. Um but

24:54

I don't I don't know that much about the

24:55

company.

24:56

>> Yeah, it just again massively oversold.

24:58

But your Gottner point is an interesting

24:59

one because Gartner would be one of

25:01

those companies that is in that bucket

25:04

of companies that have been absolutely

25:05

crushed due to the AI thesis. But this

25:09

is where I think stock picking actually

25:12

does come in handy and it actually is

25:14

useful. I mean, I know that we're

25:15

usually pro ETFs, just, you know,

25:19

diversified indices, but when something

25:21

like this happens where a technology

25:23

comes in and it just decimates the whole

25:26

narrative of of an industry, and it's

25:28

not unreasonable. I mean, the idea that

25:31

AI is going to massively disrupt

25:33

software is a very reasonable pick. The

25:37

point being, there are going to be

25:39

winners and losers. It's possible that

25:41

there will be losers in this, which is

25:43

why you want to go in and figure out,

25:45

okay, what are the winners here? Because

25:47

right now, everyone is being undervalued

25:51

right now. Everyone is getting sold

25:53

regardless of what you're doing with

25:54

your business. And that's why I think

25:56

that's why I I I I've chosen a few names

26:00

as opposed to going for the whole bucket

26:03

of companies themselves because I do

26:05

think it is reasonable to look at what's

26:06

happening and say, "Okay, well, this

26:08

company isn't taking AI very seriously.

26:11

This company's product actually isn't

26:12

very differentiated and their

26:15

relationships with their enterprises

26:17

isn't as strong as some others.

26:19

Therefore, this one actually will get

26:21

burned." And maybe Gottner is one of

26:22

those companies. Um, but it is a moment

26:25

where it's like, okay, if everyone's

26:27

selling at some point, you do need to go

26:29

in there and and start, as Buffett says,

26:32

being greedy while everyone else is

26:33

fearful. Agreed.

26:37

We'll be right back after the break. And

26:38

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26:40

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30:03

We're back with Profy Markets. It was a

30:05

busy week in the entertainment industry.

30:07

Disney finally named its next CEO, Josh

30:10

Demorro. He is the head of its

30:12

experiences division. He'll take the

30:14

helm from Bob Iger next month.

30:16

Meanwhile, Netflix and Warner Brothers

30:18

Discovery executives were on Capitol

30:19

Hill defending their planned mega

30:21

merger. What started as an antitrust

30:23

hearing quickly veered into a broader

30:25

fight over political bias. Senator Eric

30:28

Schmidt went as far as as accusing

30:30

Netflix of producing quote the wokest

30:33

content in the history of the world. So

30:37

Scott, we've got uh leadership shakeup

30:39

at Disney, new CEO going to replace Bob

30:42

Wiger, and then we had this antitrust

30:43

hearing in Washington

30:45

uh investigating the the acquisition of

30:48

Warner Brothers Discovery. Let's start

30:50

with the antitrust hearing and let's

30:51

start with just some of the highlights

30:53

from that hearing. Let's play a clip.

30:55

Sen Ali, Netflix has no political agenda

30:57

of any kind. I can tell you that.

30:59

>> Well, then why is your children's

31:00

program so full of this highly

31:02

sexualized, highly controversial,

31:06

highly controversial agenda? I don't I

31:09

don't I don't understand it. It seems

31:10

strange to me.

31:11

>> Um, respectfully, sir, it's because it's

31:13

inaccurate. We have millions of hours of

31:15

children's programming. I get

31:17

>> You're saying it's not there. You You

31:18

don't You don't have trans You don't

31:20

feature trans characters, trans story

31:21

lines, trans themes. It's not in your

31:24

programming. I'm saying we feature a

31:25

wide variety of stories and programs to

31:27

meet a wide variety of people's tastes.

31:29

>> Why is almost half of it Why does almost

31:31

half of your children's program feature

31:33

this highly controversial, highly

31:35

sexualized material? Why? That that just

31:37

seems strange to me.

31:38

>> Netflix content is synonymous

31:41

for the modern phenomenon of race

31:43

swapping, both historical and real and

31:45

fictional characters. Netflix, it

31:47

continues to push sexual and gender

31:49

theory on kids. And maybe this is what

31:51

was being referred to earlier. 41% of

31:54

G-rated kid approved series contain

31:57

LGBTQIA+

31:58

content.

31:59

>> You have a wide range of programming on

32:00

HBO. Name one program that is designed

32:03

to appeal to conservatives.

32:05

>> We don't design our programming to

32:06

appeal to

32:07

>> I can think of a lot that are designed

32:08

to go to liberals. Name one. Let me ask

32:10

you, do you think CNN is fair and

32:12

balanced?

32:13

>> Sir, I I'm not involved with CNN and in

32:15

fact they're not part of this

32:17

transaction.

32:18

>> Uh remind you this was an antitrust

32:20

hearing. Scott, your reactions.

32:22

>> JD Vance goes to Europe and lectures EU

32:24

leaders on their lack of free speech.

32:28

And now the Republican party is claiming

32:30

that private companies

32:33

have an agenda and they're not allowed

32:35

to. So, so to be fair, CNN is biased.

32:38

Fox is biased and private media

32:40

companies are allowed to have a bias

32:43

because consumers have a bias.

32:46

Netflix is probably the most politically

32:48

neutral of all of them. They were

32:49

getting [ __ ] two years ago for airing

32:51

Dave Chappelle because progressives were

32:53

freaked out about what they felt were

32:55

anti-trans comments. So which is it? I

32:57

know Ted Sarandos. For the life of me, I

32:59

could not figure out what Ted Sarandos's

33:02

politics are. And I think he wants to

33:03

keep it that way. So this notion somehow

33:07

and also I don't even need to know the

33:08

data and I know that it's [ __ ] that

33:10

50% of kids content features an LGBTQ.

33:13

That is not their agenda. But that's

33:14

just they they're just trying to get

33:16

kids to spend more and more time

33:17

watching Netflix. They're not they don't

33:20

have a they don't have any sort of

33:22

agenda along those lines. And even if

33:24

they did, guess what? They're allowed

33:26

to. The antitrust is a real issue here.

33:31

And that is if Netflix also owns HBO, do

33:34

they consolidate the market at the

33:35

high-end artal subscription content?

33:38

That's a real issue. If Paramount/CBS

33:44

is allowed to own CNN and Tik Tok, is

33:47

that also an antitrust concern? That's a

33:49

real issue. But this is what's going on.

33:54

The Ellison's give money to Republican

33:58

lawmakers. The Ellison's are trying to

34:01

come up with a reason for Netflix to not

34:05

be able to acquire Time Warner. And so

34:08

they are jinning up a bunch of

34:10

Republican senators to create some sort

34:12

of controversy or reason why Netflix

34:14

should not be able to acquire Time

34:17

Warner. There are reasons why neither

34:20

Paramount CBS/ the Ellison should be

34:22

allowed to acquire it. There are reasons

34:24

Netflix should not be allowed to acquire

34:26

it. They are antitrust. It has nothing

34:28

to do with the bias or the lack thereof

34:31

of their content. And this is senators

34:35

Holly and I forget the other guy who are

34:36

just [ __ ] coin operated who've been

34:38

told by the Ellison's we don't want to

34:40

have to pay more. So go create

34:43

controversy and some sort of bias among

34:46

people who have absolutely no ability to

34:48

think critically about when regulators

34:51

should weigh in and they shouldn't.

34:53

You're Quentyn Tarantino films have a

34:55

[ __ ] bias. They're allowed to sell to

34:57

whoever they want. This isn't about an

35:00

editorial bias. This is about a

35:02

concentration of power that would lead

35:04

to higher prices, of which there are

35:06

real concerns. And Senator Booker

35:09

actually thoughtfully tried to address

35:11

these concerns. But instead, you have

35:13

coin operated senators with the

35:17

Ellison's head so far up their ass you

35:18

can barely see their legs dangling out

35:20

of their asses trying to pretend they

35:23

give a flying [ __ ] about free speech and

35:25

that somehow Netflix is too progressive.

35:30

And the right answer to, oh, CNN doesn't

35:32

have a bias. It's more fair and

35:33

balanced. He should have said, I believe

35:35

it's more fair and balanced than Fox.

35:37

And I believe Fox has the right to do

35:38

whatever the [ __ ] they want. And people

35:40

can decide if they want to watch or or

35:42

have advertising. This was supposed to

35:45

be about concentration of power that

35:47

transfers capital and power from

35:48

consumers and workers to shareholders.

35:51

That is a real concern from both biders.

35:55

But this is how it's supposed to work.

35:57

Whoever shows up with the biggest check

35:59

gets preapproved for the acquisition and

36:02

then there is review across the DOJ, the

36:05

FDC and CPHAS around security concerns

36:07

and antitrust. Instead, we're thinking

36:10

somehow that they're not allowed to have

36:12

a bias even when there isn't one.

36:14

Anyways, thank you for my TED talk.

36:16

>> It's completely ridiculous. And again,

36:18

it was a hearing on antitrust and it

36:22

just completely devolved into a trial on

36:25

wokeness. And I feel like this is yet

36:27

another reminder, and I know we say this

36:28

all the time, of how stupid these Senate

36:31

hearings are. Like, every time the these

36:34

hearings happening, it's just a giant

36:37

display of political theater. None of it

36:39

even matters. And I think it's so funny

36:41

that these people, these these

36:43

Republican senators default to the

36:44

wokeness argument, probably because they

36:47

don't really know where to land on the

36:49

antitrust argument. Because the trouble

36:51

is that you've got all these different

36:52

players in here and they don't really

36:54

know who to side with because on the one

36:56

hand like oh maybe Netflix is woke so

36:58

maybe they should be against them but on

37:00

the other hand Paramount's controlled by

37:02

the Ellison's and the Ellisons are big

37:04

tech and but you know historically

37:06

they've been against big tech but also

37:07

oh wait the Ellison have been donated to

37:10

Donald Trump so who are we supposed to

37:11

side with? So, it's almost like wokeness

37:13

is just the default backup calling card

37:16

that you immediately knee-jerk reaction

37:18

go to when you don't really know what

37:20

the [ __ ] you're talking about. And that

37:22

seems to be what has happened in this

37:24

Senate hearing, which was supposed to be

37:26

again, what do you do when an extremely

37:29

large entertainment company is

37:31

purchasing another extremely large

37:34

entertainment company and most of these

37:36

entertainment channels are now going to

37:37

be housed under one company that has

37:39

like very legitimate and serious

37:42

monopoly concerns. There are also decent

37:44

arguments on the other side about the

37:46

role of YouTube and Instagram and on Tik

37:48

Tok and all these digital platforms, but

37:50

it's almost like that stuff is boring to

37:52

them. They don't really understand that.

37:54

That's business stuff. We don't really

37:56

care. I'd rather talk about LGBTQ and

38:00

transgender actors in children's shows

38:02

because that's something that I know my

38:04

supporters are really going to get riled

38:06

up about. Is it going to have any impact

38:08

on the transaction? Is it going to

38:09

change the trajectory of monopolization

38:11

in America? [ __ ] no. But it doesn't

38:14

matter because again, it's all for the

38:16

clips. It's all for the drama. It's all

38:18

for the show. And this was just another

38:20

reminder of that.

38:21

>> You know how people say the politicians

38:23

are speaking to a crowd of one? Like

38:25

whenever Secretary Gnome speaks, she's

38:27

just thinking, "Does he want me to say

38:28

this? Does he want me to say?" They're

38:29

all playing. They're all playing.

38:31

>> I haven't. That's good.

38:32

>> They're all playing to Senate to

38:34

President Trump. Senators Holly and I

38:37

forget the other one. They all had an

38:38

audience of one, but it wasn't President

38:40

Trump.

38:41

>> It was Larry Ellison. M

38:42

>> and unfortunately the only people who

38:44

demonstrate any actual domain expertise

38:46

or any fidelity to what the actual

38:48

hearing was about was first and foremost

38:51

Sen Senator Clolobashar. I mean here's

38:54

the thing. If we're going to talk about

38:55

affordability, throwing $40 billion at

38:58

soybean farmers while pissing off China

39:00

and then taking that money and giving it

39:02

to Argentina who's now none of this [ __ ]

39:04

works. Tariffs are inflationary. Nobody

39:06

wants to have an adult conversation. If

39:08

you want to bring inflation down,

39:12

the two things we need to do, and

39:13

there's a variety of things, but the two

39:14

biggest things, free trade, get rid of

39:16

all these ridiculous tariffs, reduce

39:18

tariffs. It'll there'll be some losers.

39:21

Some businesses in manufacturing and

39:23

services will go out of business in the

39:24

US. But eventually, when you protect

39:28

your domestic markets, at some point

39:30

your competitors abroad own [ __ ]

39:31

everything. And then eventually they

39:33

come for your lunch. and two massive

39:37

antitrust. I'm finally like have enough

39:40

money and enough influence right now. I

39:41

know I'll have if there's a Democratic

39:43

president, I'll know I'll have his ear

39:44

and amongst a variety of things, whether

39:46

it's whether it's mandatory national

39:49

service, $25 an hour minimum wage,

39:50

single pay healthcare, whatever it is,

39:52

I'm going to push so hard and say the

39:55

way you oxygenate the economy, the way

39:56

you bring down prices over two, five, 10

39:59

years is massive antitrust.

40:02

>> As voters, we're lazy. We're looking for

40:04

a quick fix. Oh, gas prices are down.

40:07

That has nothing to [ __ ] do with us.

40:08

That's about shailing Canada. That's

40:10

about geopolitics. That's about Saudi

40:13

Aramco deciding to open or close or

40:15

tighten the spot. That has nothing to do

40:16

with anything. If you want prices to

40:18

come down, you need massive free and

40:20

open trade. And you need specifically to

40:24

break up all of these monopolies who are

40:26

charging monopoly rents. But nobody

40:28

wants to have an adult conversation

40:29

around the hard structural work of

40:32

actually bringing down prices. Yeah.

40:34

>> But the fact and I I hate the fact that

40:36

we're talking about these village idiots

40:38

who are coin operated at the hands of

40:40

the Ellison's as opposed to senators

40:42

Clolobashar and Booker who actually want

40:44

to talk about the issue at hand.

40:46

>> No, I 100% agree. does feel that every

40:48

time an antitrust lawsuit comes up or

40:51

there is an implication that there could

40:52

be potentially monopoly on the table, we

40:54

always come up with an excuse as to why

40:57

it isn't actually a monopoly. In this

40:59

case, it it's the it's the YouTube and

41:01

Instagram and Tik Tok argument. The

41:03

argument is if YouTube exists and if Tik

41:05

Tok exists and if Instagram exists, then

41:08

you know they're competing against these

41:10

platforms, which you know I I get. I I I

41:13

understand that argument and it makes a

41:15

lot of sense. However, are we ever going

41:18

to have a moment where we decide

41:20

actually no, this isn't okay? I mean,

41:22

the same thing happened with Google and

41:24

the Google antitrust case and then they

41:26

decided, oh yeah, you were operating a

41:28

monopoly, but AI came along and AI

41:30

really destroyed the business and so now

41:32

we found another excuse to not have any

41:35

antitrust enforcement. It just seems

41:36

that every time we come up with some

41:39

reason, whether it's wokeness related or

41:43

otherwise, as to why we shouldn't be

41:45

implementing any form of regulation. And

41:47

so, yeah, it's it's not a surprise that

41:49

the market looks the way it does because

41:51

we've just decided that we don't really

41:52

want to do anything about it. Let's also

41:54

talk about uh Disney's new CEO, Josh

41:57

Dearo. He's the head of parks. He's

41:59

going to be taking over on March 18th

42:01

when Bob Iger will be stepping down. Uh

42:04

he's been working at Disney for 28

42:06

years. Um he has been you know crucial

42:10

to expanding the Disney experiences

42:13

business which is basically their parks

42:14

and cruises which is now the core piece

42:16

of the business. And this is a whole

42:18

other conversation but it is fascinating

42:20

how that has changed where the the

42:23

highly capital inensive piece of the

42:25

business which is operating a theme park

42:27

used to be way undervalued by investors

42:30

but now the narrative has flipped.

42:32

They're less interested in certainly the

42:35

linear also kind of the streaming.

42:37

They're very excited about the

42:38

experiences he's been running that

42:39

business. So now he's going to be taking

42:41

over as CEO. Do you have any reactions

42:43

to this new pick and the end potentially

42:47

of the reign of Bob Iger.

42:49

>> Bob Iger is the guy that after coming

42:52

back from Vietnam a war hero decided to

42:54

go back and had his legs blown off. That

42:57

was one of the worst personal decisions

42:58

in corporate history for him to start

43:00

heckling from the cheap seats around his

43:02

successor and then convince his board

43:04

that he should go back and shed

43:06

shareholder value. I mean, it's just

43:07

been and a lot of it isn't his fault.

43:09

He's basically, you know, the market has

43:11

poured honey on him and sent him hunting

43:13

for bears. I like that. That's like

43:15

something that Brian Williams would say.

43:17

That's that's like having a moose in a

43:19

convertible. Um, anyways, the

43:23

Why does that make me happy? Uh,

43:25

look,

43:27

this company will have an overhang. This

43:29

is also a buy. This company's going to

43:31

have an overhang until they're able to

43:33

get rid of their linear stuff. And that

43:35

is, you know, Disney, Nat Geo, ABC,

43:39

because in a conglomerate structure, and

43:41

I experienced this at the New York Times

43:43

where I was on the board at for two

43:44

years. I don't know if you knew that,

43:45

but

43:45

>> wow.

43:46

>> Yeah, I know. It's very impressive. So,

43:49

but here's the bottom line. We had some

43:50

great assets. We owned 17% of the Red

43:53

Sox. We had we owned the seventh tallest

43:55

building in the world. We owned a really

43:58

outstanding media company called the New

43:59

York Times. And then we had all these

44:01

shitty regional papers that were a

44:02

melting ice cube. And what happens in a

44:05

conglomerate business model? We also

44:06

owned about.com. Anyway, what happens in

44:09

a conglomerate model with stuff that

44:11

makes no sense? The market hates it and

44:13

the market finds the shittiest business

44:14

and assigns that multiple the entire

44:16

business. And essentially every every

44:20

analyst report and Q&A and earnings call

44:23

or the investor relations or Bob Iger on

44:26

a call it goes something like this.

44:28

Parks unbelievable business with an

44:29

incredible mode around it. Film studio

44:32

doing well creating IP that is drafted

44:35

into our parks singular experience. No

44:37

one can compete with our parks. If you

44:38

don't take your kids to a $1,400 a night

44:41

shitty hotel with shitty food and take

44:42

them to Disneyland four or five times by

44:44

the time they're 10, someone's going to

44:46

call child services on you. Disney

44:48

streaming is getting some leverage. It

44:50

has singular positioning around family.

44:53

You know, people say they've missed

44:54

stuff and they've missed trends. I don't

44:55

buy that. I think Disney still does a

44:56

great job with their IP. Very talented

44:59

people, outstanding culture.

45:02

all of it's great and then they have to

45:03

go but our linear platform showed 8%

45:08

decline in revenues and 14% decline in

45:11

EPS as soon as they shed that [ __ ] and

45:14

go good bank bad bank or sell it to a

45:15

consolidator and it's all about the

45:17

parks and it's all about the experiences

45:19

cruises and the streaming and the studio

45:23

this company goes up substantially in

45:25

value Disney is at a 10-year low and Bob

45:29

has clearly had the for sale sign out on

45:31

those networks, but I don't think he's

45:32

gotten no one has offered him probably

45:34

the price he wants. He probably has an

45:36

unrealistic view of the value of ABC on

45:38

ESPN. By the way, ESPN used to be the

45:40

cash cow for Disney just to tell you how

45:42

much things have changed. The other

45:44

thing is I wonder if the last 6 months

45:46

are going to be awful because the fact

45:48

that he's leaving, he's actually leaving

45:50

ahead of schedule says to me that he

45:52

looked at the back half of the year and

45:53

went, "Oh, [ __ ] I don't want to be

45:54

around for this."

45:56

>> So, and by the way, I loved your

45:57

interview with Rich Greenfield. I always

45:59

learned when I listened from Rich. And

46:02

uh uh you had him on you had him on

46:05

markets, right? When did you have Rich

46:06

on?

46:06

>> We had Rich on on last week. That's

46:08

right.

46:08

>> You you do this some days when I'm not

46:10

on.

46:11

>> Anyways, that's what you call scale. By

46:13

the way, see all the all the stuff

46:15

behind me?

46:15

>> I do. I do. I love it.

46:17

>> How awesome is that?

46:18

>> It's great.

46:19

>> Oh, and who noticed it first, by the

46:20

way? And why?

46:21

>> Who noticed it first? I don't know.

46:23

>> Let me go this way. Who's not up here?

46:25

>> Who's not up there?

46:26

>> Cara Swisser. She gave me so much [ __ ]

46:29

I'm like, let's be honest, Cara,

46:31

>> let's go.

46:32

>> You're my ex-wife. These are all my

46:34

Bellarian hookers. I am so down. These

46:37

people are making me money, giving me

46:38

more joy, and you're just the first

46:41

wife.

46:41

>> Oh, man. Bellarian hooker.

46:44

>> I can't afford the Russian hoes. I go

46:45

for the Bellarians.

46:47

Anyways, that's probably a hate crime.

46:50

Um, this is

46:52

>> Don't worry about it.

46:54

This is Disney is I think an undervalued

46:58

asset. The parks guy is the right pick.

47:01

These things are they're going to I

47:03

believe the back half of the year might

47:05

be rough for them because of our head up

47:07

your ass tariff economic warfare against

47:10

our strongest ally Canada. Anyways, the

47:13

park's amazing, the film studio amazing.

47:16

The streaming media company is starting

47:18

to get real momentum. They have to get

47:21

rid. And by the way, the new the new co,

47:23

whether it's the independent, whether

47:25

it's just bad bank and they spend them

47:27

out on their own or someone consolidates

47:28

them, that will also be a good stock to

47:30

own because it's a different complexion

47:32

of capital. As long as you reduce costs

47:34

faster than revenue declines, you can

47:36

you can churn out and consolidate all

47:38

the other cable guys. I think that's

47:40

going to be a good stock. But until they

47:42

do this good bank, bad bank, it's always

47:45

going to be assigned a multiple of a

47:47

shitty cable outsported company that is

47:50

not growing. And the reality is Disney

47:52

is growing. I believe if the new CEO

47:56

sold all of the linear, all of the

47:58

linear, right, Nat Geo, ESPN, ABC, I

48:03

think if they sold it for a dollar, the

48:06

stock would go up.

48:08

>> I think I agree

48:09

>> because everything they're doing is an

48:13

apology. Everything is Yeah. But yeah,

48:16

yeah, yeah. But the overhang of these

48:19

linear networks, the confusion of the

48:21

business strategy, the constant

48:23

apologizing for the last 20 minutes of

48:25

the earnings call is just an enormous

48:28

overhang on the stock.

48:29

>> 100% agree. I think the question now

48:32

being when is it going to happen and

48:35

potentially it's going to happen now

48:36

that they have a CEO because you know

48:38

remember you've been calling this for a

48:40

long time. You've been saying this this

48:42

is an issue not just in the last few

48:44

months or the last year, but I think

48:46

you've been saying this for for years

48:48

now. They have to get rid of the linear

48:50

assets. Um I would imagine that

48:53

everyone's going to be hammering on Josh

48:55

Dear's door demanding the same thing. So

48:58

I wonder if now that we've got a new CEO

48:59

in the building, is it actually going to

49:02

be possible? Um perhaps you have a

49:05

prediction on if this is actually going

49:08

to happen or not. But I will also the

49:10

question, do you think it's gonna happen

49:12

in the next, say, 12 months?

49:13

>> The good bank, bad bank, the sale of the

49:15

linear assets.

49:16

>> Yeah.

49:16

>> Oh, they've been for sale for two years.

49:19

Um, it's just a question of who can show

49:21

up with an offer. And I'm I imagine

49:24

there's probably some content or I don't

49:27

know, who knows, creative contracts that

49:29

are sort of trying to, you know, unsess

49:31

or unfry or unscramble an egg. But these

49:35

it's not a matter of if, it's just when.

49:37

Uh, so and I think they were probably

49:39

hoping they'd get a better price for

49:41

ESPN and they just never got the number

49:43

they wanted. But absolutely this guy has

49:47

typically what happens with a new CEO,

49:49

you can do almost anything and your

49:52

board just rubber stamps it. You have a

49:54

honeymoon period. So whenever you have a

49:56

new CEO, you want to say to him, "Boss,

49:59

okay, go hard. Go early because you have

50:01

license to do whatever the [ __ ] you want

50:03

right now." He should do it if he can do

50:06

it right away. do it immediately. By the

50:08

way, it's starting to sound like forced

50:11

seller territory. And I mean, it's it

50:13

there's two options. Either you sell it

50:15

to a private entity or you spin it and

50:17

you take it to the public markets. But,

50:19

you know, we saw what happened with

50:20

Versent. They did the spin. It went

50:23

terribly. The stock's been absolutely

50:25

crushed. So, I wonder if they're going

50:28

to be looking for uh a private buyer.

50:30

Either way, it seems like they have to

50:32

sell. It's making me think that you need

50:34

to put a consortium together and make

50:36

them a a somewhat measly offer that they

50:40

must accept.

50:42

Um, I feel like that could be an awesome

50:45

investment.

50:47

>> At 4.3 billion, it's one-year returns.

50:50

It's off 35%. You're right. Someone's

50:53

Yeah, someone needs to roll up these

50:55

things and make a go of it. It's um I

50:59

don't

51:01

these actually can be really good

51:02

stocks. Cable news is still a good I

51:04

think what they also might be waiting

51:06

for and I'd be curious to get Rich's

51:07

view on this. Typically these companies

51:10

lose money. It's like the the dirty

51:12

secret especially retail is they lose

51:14

money for 48 weeks and then for four

51:16

weeks from Thanksgiving to Christmas

51:18

they just print money. I think in some

51:20

of these cable news, I don't know if

51:22

Disney owns local stations or not, but

51:24

they make a [ __ ] ton of money around the

51:26

election

51:27

and that guy

51:29

uh that guy who hosts ABC News and also

51:32

the fact that CBS News went from 5

51:34

million viewers a night to 4 million

51:35

probably hasn't held the value of ABC.

51:38

So, my guess is my guess is they keep

51:41

thinking, "All right, someone's offered

51:43

us." The problem is the only buyers

51:44

right now are smart.

51:45

>> That's good. You should be one of those

51:47

smart buyers. Yeah, but the problem with

51:48

smart buyers is they want to pay market

51:50

value. What what he's looking for is

51:53

some drunk kid with a rich father to

51:55

come in and overpay for the thing. He's

51:57

hoping for a sky dance paramount Warner

52:01

Brothers like valuation and no one's

52:02

going to give him that cuz all the

52:03

people who will buy these linear assets

52:06

actually have calculators and they want

52:10

and to be fair these things it's very

52:13

dangerous right now. CNN

52:15

just I think CNN's viewership is off 30

52:17

or 40% yearon year. So they keep waiting

52:21

for a better price and every day the

52:24

price probably gets worse. So yeah, at

52:28

some point I think you're right. I think

52:30

there's probably is an opportunity for a

52:32

PE player to come in and say, "Here's a

52:34

shitty shitty offer. You must take it."

52:37

>> Well, I'm sure they've already had

52:38

those. or for or for Versant to come in

52:43

uh and and take this out. But any any

52:46

price at this point is a creative

52:50

to the core business in terms of

52:52

shareholder value. I'm excited to see

52:53

what happens for the next

52:55

>> the next 12 to 24 months. I think it's a

52:57

buy here. I like this. I can never find

53:00

value anywhere. I like your idea around

53:01

these software stocks that may have been

53:03

overpunished. And I do think Disney is

53:06

an opportunity. Disney's going to have

53:08

usually usually don't get an activist

53:09

with a new CEO because they like to give

53:11

the guy the benefit of the doubt as a

53:12

honeymoon phase. But I wouldn't be

53:14

surprised if someone a pelt-like figure

53:17

or somebody is taking is taking is

53:20

starting to acquire or aggregate shares

53:22

here. If this thing keeps going down,

53:24

somebody's going to show up.

53:25

>> Josh Dear just needs to pray on either a

53:27

drunk child of a billionaire showing up

53:30

or a Saudi crown prince of some kind.

53:34

>> Saudi can't own it. Gano own ABC News.

53:37

>> Fair enough. We'll see. But fair enough.

53:39

>> I think they should have that anchor. I

53:41

forget that guy. He looks ethnically

53:43

ambiguous. I think they should have him

53:44

do the evening news with his shirt off

53:45

if they want to juice ratings. That

53:47

guy's dreamy. I'd like to see him take

53:49

up hockey and [ __ ] a bunch of dudes in a

53:51

locker room. Is that wrong, Ed?

53:53

>> Not wrong. I think that's your I think

53:55

that might be your your fifth heated

53:57

rivalry mention in the last couple

53:59

weeks. I'm starting to think that you

54:00

are binge watching this and watching it

54:02

again.

54:04

You watch four episodes of that thing in

54:06

a row. You rethink everything, Ed. You

54:08

rethink.

54:09

>> I can't wait.

54:10

>> Everything.

54:11

>> Okay, let's move on to our final story

54:12

here.

54:13

>> That was a good segue. Let's get him off

54:15

the gay hockey. Let's get him off back

54:18

price earnings

54:20

and trust here.

54:23

>> Anything quick.

54:25

>> Go to commercial.

54:27

We'll be right back. And for even more

54:29

markets content, sign up for our

54:31

newsletter at profarkets.com/subscribe.

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We're back with Profy Markets. Anthropic

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used the Super Bowl to take a shot at

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>> How do I communicate better with my mom?

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Or if the relationship can't be fixed,

57:50

find emotional connection with other

57:52

older women on Golden Encounters, the

57:54

mature dating site that connects

57:56

sensitive cubs with Roaring Cougars.

58:01

>> What?

58:03

>> Would you like me to create your

58:04

profile?

58:05

>> For our audio listeners, the tagline at

58:07

the end reads, "Ads are coming to AI,

58:09

but not to Claude." As a reminder, Open

58:12

Eye recently announced that it would

58:13

begin testing ads on Chad GBT. That news

58:16

caused a stir online as Sam Alman once

58:18

described ads as quote a last resort for

58:21

us as a business model. So Scott,

58:25

big win for Anthropic. This ad went mega

58:28

mega viral. Everyone is dunking on

58:31

OpenAI. Everyone's making fun of OpenAI

58:33

with these ads. Sam Alman had a pretty

58:36

hilarious and pathetic tweet that he put

58:38

out which we can get into. Let's start

58:40

with your initial reactions.

58:41

>> It used to be that the right commercial

58:44

could change a business's trajectory.

58:46

When Hyundai came out with this

58:47

commercial saying seven-year warranty,

58:49

you know, Coca-Cola's occasionally

58:51

there's an ad that is so breakthrough

58:53

and grabs people emotions, it just

58:55

juices sales and rejuvenates the

58:57

company. That almost never happens

58:59

anymore because people aren't watching

59:00

the audiences become so fragmented and

59:03

people immediately go on their social

59:05

graph or online and do diligence on

59:06

whether this product actually is worth

59:08

it or not. This is

59:11

the biggest moment in broadcast

59:14

advertising as it relates to impact on

59:16

the markets we've seen in a long time.

59:18

This is the moment that Anthropic begins

59:21

an ascent in valuation past open AI. And

59:27

in my course on brand strategy, we have

59:29

a bunch of different models and

59:30

constructs for evaluating brand and

59:32

strategy. And one of them I call lading.

59:35

And that is you say we're this, they're

59:36

this, and you find points of

59:38

differentiation that pass three hurdles.

59:40

Differentiation, are we truly different?

59:42

Relevance. Does anyone care? And three,

59:44

is it sustainable? So, we're Democrats.

59:48

We're for bodily autonomy, therefore

59:49

denying a woman's rights. Is it

59:51

differentiated? Yeah, we are truly

59:53

different on this. Is it relevant? No.

59:54

We'd like to think it is, but family

59:57

planning and abortion rights never show

59:59

up at the ballot box as much as we'd

60:00

like to think it's going to happen this

60:01

time. And is it sustainable? Can we own

60:04

it?

60:05

Anthropic has done lading here. They've

60:07

said, "Okay, we're not going to have

60:09

ads."

60:10

That is a point of differentiation

60:12

because the number one use case for AI

60:15

at corporations is what, Ed?

60:17

>> Um,

60:19

>> very good, Ed. Okay, we'll go we'll all

60:21

go by service now. But anyway, so

60:23

>> I don't know.

60:23

>> What's the answer?

60:24

>> It's therapy.

60:25

>> Oh, therapy.

60:25

>> People are revealing their most intimate

60:27

questions and concerns to AI. And the

60:32

thought that this person is going to

60:34

take all your personal information and

60:35

start saying, "Oh, you seem to be

60:38

suffering from depression. Have you

60:39

thought about Lexapro from Hoffman Lar

60:42

Ro?" I mean, you know what you're

60:43

getting with Google. You know that

60:45

they're going to take you to a place

60:46

they can further monetize and mix in

60:48

some utile information. We have been

60:50

opening up so much about our most

60:53

personal information to AI that the

60:56

thought that they're going to put in

60:57

ads, it really is different. Anthropic

61:00

has said, "No, we're not going to do

61:01

that. It's hugely relevant to people

61:02

because people are already scared and

61:04

worried about AI and the thought that

61:05

they're going to start taking all of our

61:07

history and all of our most intimate

61:09

secrets to to prostitute us to

61:12

advertisers. And it's also most likely

61:15

sustainable. I think it'll be difficult

61:16

for Sam Alman to go back on it because

61:18

he has all these growth projections he

61:19

has to live up to, including going back

61:21

on his word and saying he wasn't going

61:22

to do porn. Now he's saying he's going

61:23

to do porn. And the execution here

61:26

around these ads. Oh my god. This is

61:31

this is Weeden Kennedy like you know

61:34

Nike ad material. These whoever did

61:36

these ads this ad is going to get if the

61:39

if the Super Bowl is like the Super Bowl

61:41

usually is. It's a shitty game. This ad

61:44

is going to get more attention than the

61:45

than the game itself. This is a pivotal

61:49

moment that still shows that advertising

61:51

can be relevant. Whoever is the agency

61:53

here, their phone is ringing off the

61:55

hook. They're getting they're getting

61:58

there's always kind of a hot agency for

61:59

a while that that they do a great ad

62:01

campaign and people under the illusion

62:04

that these guys if we bring in these

62:05

people and they wear black and they

62:07

party with us and they're really

62:08

attractive so we'll spend we'll waste a

62:10

lot of money on them that they can

62:10

rejuvenate our business. This is a big

62:14

moment for for um Anthropic and this

62:18

execution.

62:20

They've already gotten 10 times the ROI

62:23

on this Super Bowl commercial before

62:24

it's even run. This is I'm I'm blown

62:27

away, Ed. I'm totally blown away. 100%.

62:30

Sam's response was hilarious. He put out

62:33

an essay on Twitter. This is Sam Alman,

62:35

the CEO of OpenAI. He said, quote, first

62:39

the good part of the Anthropic ads. They

62:41

are funny and I laughed, but I wonder

62:44

why Anthropic would go for something so

62:46

clearly dishonest. He goes on to say, "I

62:48

guess it's on brand for anthropic double

62:50

speak to use a deceptive ad to critique

62:52

theoretical deceptive ads that aren't

62:54

real, but a Super Bowl ad is not where I

62:56

would expect it. We are committed to

62:58

broad democratic decision-making in

63:00

addition to access. One authoritarian

63:02

company won't get us there on their own

63:04

to say nothing of the other obvious

63:05

risk. It is a dog blah blah blah blah

63:08

blah. No one [ __ ] cares." Sam Hman,

63:11

he got roasted and he's trying to make

63:14

this argument that, you know, it's not

63:17

true how they're portraying the ads in

63:19

chat GBT. We're not going to be

63:21

surreptitiously putting the ads in there

63:24

and trying to recommend them while

63:25

you're doing your therapy, which may be

63:27

true. Maybe the ads will be a lot better

63:29

than that. Maybe it'll be a lot less

63:31

dystopian than Anthropic has suggested

63:34

with this ad. Point is, no one [ __ ]

63:36

cares. It was a good ad. It was funny

63:39

the way that they even nailed down the

63:41

voice of chat GBT, which is this like

63:44

awkward, monotonous, sickopantic, very

63:47

annoying voice that everyone has gotten

63:49

sick of. Like, it's just a good ad. And

63:52

they they clearly are demonstrating they

63:54

have their their finger on the pulse

63:56

here, and that's all that matters. And

63:58

so for Sam Hman to come out and give

64:01

this essay on on critiquing the the

64:04

details of this of this ad, it's like

64:06

this is some of the worst PR uh coms

64:10

that we've ever seen. And I mean it just

64:12

rubs salt into the wounds. Anthrop

64:14

everyone's turning on Open AI. Anthropic

64:17

is emerging as the winner. You said that

64:20

this was like the coming of age moment

64:22

for anthropic. I totally agree. For me,

64:24

it it it has parallels to the the Apple

64:28

ad, the 1984 Apple ad, which was

64:32

regarded by many as like the greatest

64:33

commercial of all time, also aired

64:36

during the Super Bowl, and also took a

64:38

direct shot at a competitor, which at

64:40

that time was IBM. And the whole idea

64:43

was saying through, you know,

64:47

undertones, the the sort of subtext of

64:49

the ad was that IBM is big brother.

64:52

They're going to have this mind control.

64:54

They're trying to take over the world.

64:55

Apple's going to be the company that

64:56

liberates you with personal computers.

65:04

>> On January 24th, Apple Computer will

65:06

introduce Macintosh and you'll see why

65:10

1984 won't be like 1984.

65:14

>> It's just a good ad. It's like a good

65:16

message. It's something that resonates.

65:18

That's exactly what Anthropic has done.

65:20

Um, and you know, I said a few months

65:24

ago, I think you agreed

65:26

anthropic is going to be the heavyweight

65:28

champion uh of AI in 2026.

65:32

The narrative on AI is beginning to

65:36

waver. And a trillion dollar AI spending

65:38

plan, it just isn't quite what it used

65:41

to be. It doesn't sound as sexy as it

65:43

did, say, 12 months ago. And that may

65:46

well mean pain for open AI, which has of

65:50

course been leading this charge. But

65:52

more importantly, it might mean new

65:55

opportunities, opportunities for other

65:57

companies that are taking a different

65:59

approach. It might mean the beginning of

66:02

the rise of a new heavyweight champion,

66:05

a new AI winner. It does look like that

66:09

winner could well be anthropic. And I

66:12

feel like this is kind of the moment

66:14

where everyone realized, yeah, this is

66:15

actually happening.

66:16

>> I don't think Alman was well advised

66:18

here. I think he should have said,

66:21

when you're the market leader and

66:22

they're still the market leader, you

66:23

don't reference the competition.

66:25

>> Yes. Don't say

66:26

>> never talk about them. And if he'd been

66:28

asked about it, he should have said,

66:29

"I've seen it. It's a great ad." That's

66:31

it. That's it. Because anything beyond

66:33

that looks defensive.

66:35

>> Totally agreed. and he might put out a

66:37

separate release talking about, okay, I

66:39

want to clarify some things around our

66:40

ads, what they will be used for, what

66:42

they won't be used for, where they can

66:43

add value. Anything around medical

66:46

information, anything around

66:48

relationships, we will not be inserting,

66:50

you know, but when you respond to the

66:52

number two player, which they still are

66:53

right now, you're basically saying, I'm

66:55

scared.

66:57

You know, Herz never referenced Avis.

67:01

Coke never referenced Pepsi. You don't

67:04

ever reference your competition when

67:06

you're the number one player. And he

67:08

just comes across he comes across as

67:10

defensive and uh you know, he's been

67:14

caught flat-footed. I get it. But he

67:17

should his only his only thing should

67:20

have been, "Yeah, of course I saw the

67:21

ad. I think they I think they did a

67:23

great job. Good for them. Nothing more."

67:25

and then maybe give it some distance and

67:27

then put out something about all right

67:28

let's talk about our advertising what it

67:30

will be used for what it won't why we

67:32

think it's such an incredible

67:33

opportunity to add value to our customer

67:36

base why it'll be a huge revenue

67:38

opportunity let's be honest and what

67:41

what it will not be used for such that

67:43

you can you know if you're talking about

67:46

we will we will not take pharmaceutical

67:48

ads I'm obsessed whenever I get any of

67:50

my health information I upload it to

67:52

chat GPT I want to know there's no

67:54

pharmaceutical

67:55

influence here telling me, oh, okay, you

68:00

you know, whatever it is, you have

68:02

shoulder pain. I just don't want I want

68:04

to know that they're doing their best to

68:06

give me I mean, AI should be the clean,

68:09

well-lit place of the internet to a

68:12

certain extent around information. It it

68:14

gets it wrong, but their heart should be

68:15

in the right place. So, yeah, this is

68:19

this is a seinal I believe this is a

68:22

seminal moment. I believe that when we

68:23

look back on this, this will be seen as

68:26

a big moment in the the AI wars.

68:28

>> Would you agree this could be like the

68:30

1984 Apple ad moment? I feel like that

68:33

was Apple's moment in the in the

68:34

computer revolution. I mean, this is it,

68:36

right?

68:37

>> It's a great analogy. This is that kind

68:39

of landmark broadcast advertising

68:41

moment.

68:42

>> It's very exciting. It's also kind of

68:43

interesting to see the return of

68:45

advertising, which I feel like people

68:47

have been sort of counting out that

68:48

advertising is kind of dead or it's

68:50

boring. And you know, the Mad Men era is

68:52

over, but it's kind of fun and exciting

68:54

to see what a great ad can do for your

68:58

business. I mean, we'll see what the ROI

69:00

will actually be, but it's already

69:02

gotten millions of views, and this is

69:04

before it was actually aired on the

69:06

Super Bowl. This was that just the

69:08

pre-release. They just posted it on

69:10

social media, got millions of views

69:12

across the internet in literally under

69:14

24 hours. And I find it exciting and

69:17

cool. But I'm sure if you're working at

69:18

an ad agency, it's also fun and exciting

69:21

and cool to see just such a good clearly

69:24

created by humans as well. Like this was

69:26

clearly someone who's used Chat GPT a

69:29

lot, who understands the nuances and

69:31

annoyances of the product. Like this is

69:33

a very human commercial and they've come

69:36

out there and they've put it out there.

69:37

It's resonated so much with so many

69:40

people. It does feel like this is kind

69:42

of like the resurgence of the golden age

69:44

of advertising. And I just love that

69:46

it's going to be on the Super Bowl,

69:47

which of course is, you know, the the

69:50

grand stage for advertisers around the

69:52

world. By the way, the the creative

69:54

partner, it was produced by Anthropic,

69:56

but the creative agency is a group

69:58

called Mother, uh, which is

70:00

independently owned. It's not owned by

70:01

one of the conglomerates. This is going

70:03

to be, my guess is the next year they'll

70:04

sell cuz they'll everyone will want to

70:06

talk to them and they'll realize it's

70:07

the right time to cash out. By the way,

70:10

let's bring this back to me, Ed. And um

70:12

>> please.

70:13

>> And when I was right out of business

70:14

school, I met this guy named Warren

70:16

Helman, and I'd started Profit, my brand

70:19

strategy firm, and he said, "I've got a

70:21

great assignment for you." And he goes,

70:22

"I'm going to pay you to go to Levi

70:24

Strauss and company board meetings, and

70:25

I don't want you to speak to anybody. I

70:27

don't want you to be politicized, and at

70:28

the end of the board meeting, I want you

70:29

to stand up and give us your honest,

70:31

thoughtful advice." And I was like 29. I

70:33

mean, that's a dream job, right? And

70:35

they invited two other people for their

70:37

unfiltered advice for the next two years

70:39

of board meetings. They invited a guy

70:40

named Leo Lee Clow who was head of TBWI

70:43

day and a guy named Nigel Bogle from the

70:45

hot agency of that time, BBH.

70:47

And we listen to the whole board meeting

70:49

and then we'd each get 20 minutes to

70:50

just stand up and give our piece. And

70:55

so it was a strategy guy, yours truly,

70:58

and two um creative guys, agencies. I

71:02

haven't seen an adman in a board meeting

71:04

in 20 years. No one gives a [ __ ] what

71:07

agency people think anymore. And if you

71:09

go to I've been going to CAN for a long

71:11

time. Every year the amount of beach

71:14

space, the fabulousness of the parties

71:17

gets smaller and smaller for WPP, IPG,

71:20

Omnicom, Havas, and it gets bigger for

71:23

the tech guys. I mean, the lack of

71:26

intellectual currency and influence of

71:28

the ad market is just it's just

71:31

shriveled up and gone away. It's

71:33

striking how how little people care

71:36

about their viewpoints. Ad agencies used

71:38

to be in every strate strategy meeting.

71:40

They used to be seen as a key thought

71:42

partner. Now, literally, no one gives a

71:44

[ __ ] what they think.

71:46

>> But maybe this is going to change

71:47

things. Probably not, but maybe

71:49

>> this is a blip. This will mother's going

71:52

to get a ton of business, unearned

71:54

business, because everyone will be like,

71:55

"We hired the same agency that did the

71:56

anthropic ads and then they're going to

71:57

sell to one of the big conglomerates and

71:59

go open a bar in the Bahamas or

72:01

something." That's what I would do.

72:03

That's what I would do. Start a hockey

72:05

team. I love that. Okay, let's take a

72:07

look at the week ahead. We'll see the

72:08

employment report and consumer price

72:10

index for January. We'll also see

72:12

earnings from Apollo, Lowe's, Coca-Cola,

72:15

BP, Spotify, CVS, Robin Hood, Ford,

72:19

McDonald's, Shopify, and Airbnb. The

72:21

earnings continue to roll in. Scott, do

72:25

you have any predictions? We've already

72:27

made it. In 12 months, Anthropic is

72:28

going to be worth more than OpenAI.

72:31

Uh, this is this is a big moment.

72:34

Anthropic has gone after the enterprise

72:36

market. Smart move. Open AAI has kind of

72:38

dominated consumer. Sort of the analogy

72:40

I would use is 25 years ago, Dell versus

72:44

Gateway and Gateway went uh consumer and

72:47

Dell went small mediumsized business. We

72:49

know how that turned out. Uh Anthropic

72:52

has gone enterprise, open AI has built a

72:55

consumer business and I think there's

72:58

been a series of missteps at OpenAI. I

73:00

think Anthropic is going this way uh up

73:04

and open AI is going down and within 12

73:06

months uh open I think anthropic's

73:09

raising at 350. Open AI claims are

73:11

raising at 850 within a year and I don't

73:14

know what the relative numbers will be

73:15

but in a year anthropic is going to be

73:18

worth more than open AAI.

73:23

Thank you for listening to Prof Markets

73:25

from ProfG Media. Tune in tomorrow for a

73:28

fresh take on markets.

Interactive Summary

The discussion covers several key topics: the problematic release of the Epstein files and the public's confusion due to a lack of trusted institutions; the recent sell-off in software stocks, which the speakers argue is an overreaction to AI, presenting a buying opportunity for "dislocated high-quality companies"; significant news in the entertainment industry, including Disney's new CEO and a politically charged antitrust hearing for the Netflix/Warner Bros. Discovery merger; and Anthropic's highly effective Super Bowl ad, which successfully challenged OpenAI and marked a pivotal moment in the "AI wars."

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