is this um reestablishment of militaryto

military dialogue. This has been

suspended since 2021, but the two sides

have decided to reactivate this and a

more specific element of this is the

tacit agreement to extend the uh

continuation of the START treaty in the

80s which is obviously an incredibly

important illustration of their

commitment to not escalating in terms of

nuclear engagement. What did you take

away from that?

>> That was the moment when the world in

the middle of cold war saw the hope of

bright, better, peaceful, safe future. I

remember then uh it all started with

Garbachov and Reagan uh meeting in

Reikavik and from there on they started

negotiating nuclear disarmament and

nuclear control and then we really

started feeling safer all of us. Okay,

lately it's been madness. My personal

take is I think that Russia could care

less. Okay. But Russians will do

anything to get some kind of concessions

for the economy.

>> This is the global gambit. Today my

guest is Constantine Somalio, the host

of Inside Russia, the longstanding and

indepth look at what actually is going

on well inside Russia. Now many of you

will know that this is a reoccurring uh

agreement uh appearance that Constantine

has. We talk about the economy. We talk

about the war and its impact on Russia's

psyche. And well, there's a couple of

exciting announcements that we're going

to have at the end of this conversation.

So, do stick around for those. Right. We

were talking about this offair

Constantine. um lots of ideas that we

think we're going to work together in

even more and and support the channels

and the amazing communities. Um but

certainly we haven't spoken I think

since before Christmas um because of

just the craziness around that time of

year and my channel's been having some

uh good uh good conversations elsewhere.

But as always we take time for each

other to talk about the economy and

such. So it's lovely to see you again

Constantine. How are you? Peter,

fantastic to be here. Thank you very

much for inviting. I am well. I am

eagerly watching uh what's going on in

Russia in uh economy in Russian economy

and that influences everything else, the

war, the society. So, um, 2026 hasn't

been boring so far, and it's turning out

to be a very violent and very, uh, fast

year for Russia, not just for the

economy, but for the entire country, and

for its history. So, as always, we're

going to start in the first half of our

two-part uh with sort of more the

military side, the politics, and then

we'll talk about the e economics in the

second half. Of course, we may cover

certain points, but that's generally how

we break it down. So, firstly,

Constantine, and as always, this is more

of a conversation for people, not just a

strict interview. But firstly, in

Constantine, we've got uh a general,

Russian general has been shot. Uh Alexv,

he was one of the key uh figures, I

think, in negotiations over Marupole in

2022. Uh and he's been taken to a

hospital. I think he's there right now.

You know, he's in critical condition, I

believe. But what what does this tell

us? Do you have any more insights on

this?

>> There is not much information

besides everyone knows besides what's

made it to the news. But this is huge.

He's not just a general. He is the

deputy chief of GRU,

Russia's mightiest intelligence,

military intelligence organization. Um,

that is not talked about publicly. It's

hush hush. Okay. In the USSR, it was top

secret and um they actually punished

people for disclosing this even name. No

one know knew what gru guru meant. Okay,

that's a different story now. But uh now

the chief is the usually the

administrator guy who takes care of the

strategy or communications with other

big shots, the head of the KGB, the

president of Russia and all of that. So

and his deputy is the guy who is

hands-on,

who takes care of everything, all

operations, um important decisions. And

so he's the hands-on guy and he was shot

in Moscow

near his apartment residence in front of

everybody. I think that speaks volumes.

It just it it shows that um first of all

it it shows all the elites and um the

officials in Russian government and the

the leadership of the Russian army that

no one is safe because if the top GRU

general gets shot and killer gets away,

you know, then no one is safe. It shows

that uh there's a tremendous um

security fail for I don't know

GRU for the KGB FSB you know everyone

who is taking care of the security for

Russia stop officials this guy gets shot

in the middle of a day in Moscow that's

that that's just incredible. Yeah, it's

it's pretty nuts because he he's been

part of so many uh critical moments in

the war so far. But uh what it also

tells us is that the insecurity, the

capacity for lone actors, rogue actors

to just take out or attemptedly take out

such senior figures. We've obviously had

Dugan's daughter who was blown up in

that car bomb. We've had other senior

military figures u targeted in the past

year or so as part of those clandestine

operations from Ukraine. Um let alone

obviously the numerous drone breaches to

the city and and strikes obviously on

oil refineries. But what does this tell

us then about the state of the GU and

its ability to take care of its own

personnel?

>> They're failing. That's what it tells

me. They're failing at all fronts. Okay.

And All right. Whatever happens in

Ukraine, you know, that's your

professional expertise. Those folks are

uh, you know, j you

allow for your top guy who is in charge

of pretty much all operations

get shot in the middle of a day and then

the killer just walks away. It kind of

tells me that there's chaos.

>> It is chaos. I mean, what what's been

happening on the front? Obviously, we've

got these trilateral talks. uh a lot of

emphasis on that. I was talking about

that on the media a couple of days ago.

But what the likelihood of this actually

resulting in some kind of deal is um as

always non-existent. Um I think what

makes these slightly different and I

don't know if you'd agree with this

Constantine is that they are trilateral

talks. You know the first ones between

the three actors for the first time um

in a while well ever I think or since

what three and a half years ago. So do

you read that any any significance into

that or is largely just hot air because

it's the Kremlin?

>> It has some significance

because in general I think these um

talks in Abu Dhabi are smoke screen.

Okay, just to prolong the process, not

to reach some final result, peace or

ceasefire at least, but to keep on

going, showing the Americans, feeding

the Americans, understanding that look,

we want peace. We just need to discuss

more and more, longer, and longer. the

longer they discuss

um the longer Americans do not hit

Russia's companies or industry

industries with direct sanctions like

they hit Luke oil and Ross and that

literally ruined Russia's uh oil exports

okay so the longer they keep on

negotiating like that the longer Russia

stays sanctions well not sanctions free

but at least uh does Americans do not

apply

more sanctions. Okay. But you are right

on. There is a difference this time and

I don't think Russia is

um interested in in in uh reaching the

final peace agreement or at least

ceasefire.

But they want some kind of a break for

the economy because right now Russian

economy is in freef fall. 2026 has

started tremendously bad. all we talked

about in previous conversations in 2025,

2024, you know, and it was more of a

okay, it's going to happen. It's around

the corner. It's it's it's it's

forecasted. Okay, we predict it. I

predict it. But then now I don't have to

um forecast anything. I just show the

facts of what is happening now and

that's enough. Okay, we are seeing that

Russia is demising. It's an economy is

demising and um this is a very strong

word I use but I prove it by numbers.

Okay. And uh Vladimir Putin was just

reported by um his well not deputies but

the government of Russian Federation

that in midair Russia is facing a

financial crisis.

Okay. So that's very serious. So I think

that the change of negotiation

format now there are three countries

involved. Ukraine is directly involved.

I think that is a sign that Russia wants

to actually do something. Russia wants

to um achieve certain things perhaps to

compromise on furious not on peace.

Okay. That peace is is like a death

sentence to Putin's regime or Putin

definitely, but they want to achieve

something to get themselves a break.

Okay. So, that's my take on that.

>> No, certainly. Uh I I think the fact

that Ukraine is part of the conversation

uh reflects the reality that uh is is

happening for the Russian side. Um but

we can because they have to sort of

Ukraine normally wouldn't be part of

this conversation because Putin doesn't

see Ukraine as a legitimate actor, as an

equal partner or actor. Um but obviously

of course what happened in the past uh

few weeks uh around Christmas, the

run-up to Christmas, there was obviously

the huge amount of um uh flurry and

frustration from the Kremlin over

Europe's growing willingness to um defy

the Kremlin. And I think that this is a

huge uh demonstration of of Putin's um

arrogance, but hubris, I think, is the

best word to use, hubris, because as

usual, he doesn't really talk about

Europe. He doesn't really reference

Europe, but this time he did. In

December, he directly uh threatened

Europe much more explicitly than we've

seen in a long time. And to me, that was

purely because he was becoming rattled.

He was becoming frustrated with the

Europeans's willingness to defy America

and do their own thing and obviously hit

Russia where it hurts. And often Putin

if he doesn't say anything then he's

very uncomfortable about it. But also if

he lashes out in such a way clearly his

backs up against the wall and he doesn't

like it. Would you would you agree with

that or you think it's more reflective

of something else?

>> I agree with that 100%.

Europe what it appears to be right now

Europe has emerged as an independent

strong player that Russia needs to

consider. Okay. And um I see that the

attitude towards Europe in the Kremlin

has changed and it's become more

aggressive and now you're absolutely

right. Europe is considered as uh one of

the centers of world power whereas

before Putin considered that you know a

bunch of um different countries that

cannot agree on one thing among

themselves and now it's different. So we

are seeing that the rhetoric changed a

great deal. So I agree with you. Yeah,

for me I I've really refocused the

channel a little bit more on Europe

specifically because I think we're in

such a pivotal time uh for the continent

and the capacity for the Europeans to uh

engage Russia without the United States.

Obviously what happened at the World

Economic Forum just two weeks ago, 10

days ago was was important, was pivotal.

Um, Putin obviously can't go to that,

but what do you think he was thinking

when he listens to Trump's comments in

his speech or this idea of the board of

peace? Trump clearly wants Putin to be

part of international negotiations. He

wants the United States and Russia to be

trading, have good bilateral relations,

but the war is is the problem.

>> Um, I honestly don't even know what

Putin thinks. I can't think of it. Uh

because listening to Donald Trump is a

very interesting um occupation, you

know, um

it's

you you listen to it, okay? And then uh

you don't take it seriously because

whatever he says today uh might and will

be said differently tomorrow by him or

contradicted by himself. Okay. So I

think Putin realizes that. I think he's

played Trump very well. Um, he's read

Trump and he's played Trump since

February when Donald Trump first called

Vladimir Putin then started appeasing

him.

>> Putin doesn't like to be appeased. Putin

only understands the language of

strength. If someone uh hits a blow and

knocks his teeth out, that he

understands and he respects. But when

someone appeases Putin, well, Putin is a

KGB officer. Okay. He he knows how to

play these games. Um so um I think he's

just uh you know

watching what Donald Trump says and um

act accordingly

because

we obviously seeing that Russia has an

upper hand on America. Although America

has holds a great power, you know,

America just lifted a finger and you

know the the the the the biggest

sanctions hit Luke oil and Rosniff and

that literally ruined

um Russian oil export, okay, in just a

few months. So America can do much. it

can do great uh damage to Russia but no

that's the whole point of negotiation

let's negotiate for longer and longer so

you know we we are in a safe zone right

so um I think Putin just listens to

Donald Trump and um changes his strategy

you know what to say next to Donald

Trump what to do next what to propose

next

>> but do you think this whole idea that

Trump is is it kasnoff uh this you

agent. He was he was uh uh acquired

picked up by the KGB in the 80s and he's

now a Russian stoogge, right? that

Trump's always been sort of manicured

and uh molded into this agent or do you

think that there's a little bit of

>> I have given this thought uh idea a

great thought and

I don't understand what possibly can

Putin or the KGB have on Donald Trump

uh so they manipulate him. So, he Donald

Trump obviously has been doing a lot of

things favorable to Russia and I've said

and we even discussed it together here

at your channel and um that there's no

question about that. Uh without Donald

Trump uh Russia would be in a much worse

situation. For goodness sake, he invited

Vladimir Putin uh the guy who has a

outstanding warrant from the

International Criminal Court for war

crimes to the USA gave him the royal

treatment red carpet and all and through

a military parade in his honor. I mean

that's that's odd, don't you find? Um

it was televised when fun fair and um

very odd. So it some actions

speak louder than words. Okay. But I

just can't I can't even understand

what's so important. What kind of

evidence they have about Donald Trump? I

mean, look at the Epstein files. Could

it can't be worse than that? You know,

it's already out there in public.

Everyone looks at it. Uh I mean

what possibly

uh so I don't

it's really hard to believe that he is

agent Kasnov. Okay. I I still don't

believe that. But what I clearly see is

that some actions he does they benefit

Russia greatly.

>> Yeah. I think that there can be a huge

amount of uh idolization. I I think that

Trump idolizes Putin. I think he

idolizes what he's turned Russia into

and he wants to replicate that for

America. He wants to centralize power.

He wants to intimidate and eradicate or

remove his political opposition. He

wants to suppress the media. I I think

that's pretty clear and he's done as

much as he can given the checks and

balances in the system that the US exi

exists in the US system. Um but to say

that he's an allout agent explicitly

I've always been like yeah no that's

that's going down um conspiracy alley

for me but uh

>> same here. Yeah,

>> but you know we have mentioned the

ominous uh Epstein files which I tend to

try and leave away with barge pole but

uh I don't know what do you think of the

Russian links between Epstein and and

Moscow now because there's obviously

emphasis that Epstein was a Russian

agent. I am not a great expert on what's

going on with this process, the Epstein

files and his crime and apparent the

possible suicide and

>> sure,

>> you know, I I don't know much. All I get

is just what everyone gets from the

news. But I was caught by surprise by

this information that there's so much

evidence in his communications in his

files that um he's been in contact with

the Russians uh at different caliber. I

mean look at Russian politician um

Vladimir Jerovski. Okay, the guy's been

in was in Russian politics since 1991.

he was running against Boris Yelson back

in the USSR

um in before the USR fell apart for to

to become Russia's president uh the

Republic of Russia part of the USSR. So

the guy passed away uh a few years ago,

but he was like a major player on the

Russian political scene and now Epstein

has evidence and and you know uh some

some some stuff on him. Um

I it's it's it's it's shocking. Okay. I

don't um think he was Russia's agent for

one simple reason. What possibly could

Kremlin offer Epstein? I just I can't

think of anything. Epstein had

everything. He was in cahoots with US

politicians, with the rich people. He

was mega rich himself. He was um having

a good life. You got to understand that

um being someone's agent, KGB's agent,

it's one of the worst things that a

person can get. It's slavery.

Okay, you get you you get they offer you

some kind of reward but you get a leash

on your neck and um you know you are

never free for the rest of your life. I

for Epstein it would be absolutely

insane

to have some kind of connections with

the KGB with uh whoever is you know FSB.

Why would he do that? What would he

possibly what could he possibly get? He

had everything. Okay, so he could have

uh well not being an agent but having

communications he could have

manipulated. He could have sold um you

know some some some material on others.

He could get favors but not as agent but

as a trader as a broker. Okay. And I

think that's what he was. I don't

believe he was. It'd be so incredibly

dumb to to to become a KGB agent.

>> Yeah. Look, I

>> same for Donald Trump. I mean, I'm

sorry. The same for Donald Trump. I

mean, why would he what would he get in

return?

There's not such a thing. He's the

president of the United States. He was a

very famous wealthy man in the 80s. He

had everything. Um,

did did perhaps KGB was he promoted

anyway in America? No, he was in

oblivion in the '9s. Um, you know, so I

just don't believe that neither of them

were agents. Trump made an appearance in

Home Alone, too. There is no pinnacle

higher than that. Um, I mean, jokes

aside, I I cannot understand it either.

I I run quite far from this whole

Epstein matter to be honest. I do not

understand the obsession around it. Uh

there was a clip of Rory Stewart who is

a former British politician uh in the UK

government about 10 years ago and he was

talking on I think it was News night and

the BBC uh and he was emphasizing that

sort of there are much bigger things

than Epstein and obviously the interview

is like what do you mean like you know

what you don't think this is important

no that's not what he said we have a war

in Ukraine the situation in Gaza is

incredibly tumultuous the Sudin civil

war uh the situation between Iran China

and America, Iran, Venezuela, the entire

international order is is on the state

of flux and the entire obsession around

one single bloke and whether or not he

might have been a Russian agent.

Goodness me. Uh what would he have

possibly gotten that he didn't already

have is what you're saying and I 100%

agree. Why would he need to go to that

extent to be associated with the Russian

government? Moreover, it's quite

possible that, you know, he had

engagements with senior Russian figures.

I mean, he was a a financeier, a a very

important individual in the '9s for

whatever. It's impossible that he

wouldn't have links to certain Russian

actors. Sure. But does that immediately

make him an agent? No. We seem to live

in this very binary world where it's all

or nothing. A very zero sum game, which

I it's never the case in geopolitics,

international relations, personal

relationships like that. I can tell you

from personal experience, right? I will

talk about NATO and Ukraine and suddenly

I'm a NATO agent because I'm sympathetic

to Ukraine's need for its sovereignty.

Uh I've talked about the Taliban,

Pakistan, and suddenly I work for ISI.

Uh I talk to you know uh analysts about

Iran and because one of them is slightly

more uh pragmatic about getting rid of

the Islamic Republic regime they think

oh I I work I'm being funded by the

Islamic Republic or you know I go on I

go on Al Jazzer or something I'm funded

by Qatar. It's very lazy and and and and

and I I think we need to stop sort of

just thinking people look for

associations where they want them to be.

They hear what they want to hear. It's

that selective uh engagement. But

anyway, there's my slight rant of the of

the conversation. Constantine, one of

the other things we've obviously seen

happening are these talks, but sort of

yet another swapping of prisoners,

prisoners swap. Is that of any impact

significance at all or that's just

smaller menial on the side because

that's the only thing the Russians and

Ukrainians can get done, so to speak. I

think it's a PR stunt on Russian side

because prisoners exchange is always

publicized. Okay, it always makes news

and it's made news all over the world

and it shows that Russia has done

something at least something. Okay, so

it's a gesture of uh look, we're willing

to negotiate. We're willing to take it

further down the road and the road is

very long obviously months perhaps years

you know but we're willing and as as as

a gesture of goodwill as prisoners

exchange because

um from what my understanding what's

happening in the front lines Russian

command does not really care about much

about the prisoners or or soldiers uh

from what we hear from from the front um

you know that's not of a great

significance ificance if a few hundred

men will be returned uh what awaits them

probably not good fate okay so in Russia

so

that's my take on it

>> is this um reestablishment of militaryto

military dialogue right this has been

suspended since 2021

um but the two sides have decided to

reactivate this uh and a more specific

element of this is the um tacet

agreement to con extend the uh

continuation of the start treaty uh from

the 80s which is obviously an incredibly

important illustration of their

commitment to not escalating in terms of

nuclear engagement. What did you take

away from that? That was the moment when

the world in in the middle of cold war

saw the hope of bright better peaceful

safe future. Okay. I remember it was as

when I was a child. I remember then uh

it all started with Garbacho and Reagan

uh meeting in Ray Kyavik

90 86 or 87 uh don't don't don't quote

me on that. And from there on they

started negotiating um nuclear

disarmament and nuclear control and then

we really started feeling safer all of

us. Okay. Um lately it's been madness

and obviously this um the agreement

expired and

my personal take is I think that Russia

could care less. Okay. But Russians will

do anything, you know, anything to get

some kind of concessions for the

economy. Okay. One thing that is off the

table is peace in Ukraine. Putin is

certainly not interested because that's

his death sentence. He knows that. Well,

everyone knows that.

uh everything else Russia I think is

willing negotiate is willing to you know

to compromise whatever can help ease off

sanctions you know uh oil trade uh

whatever can get more money into Russian

economy so the regime can stay afloat

for longer I think that's what the main

uh take here

>> yeah I think it matters just because

it's the last major guard rail

uh that constrains nuclear arsenals of

the two countries. I mean 85% of the

world's nuclear warheads are between

America and Russia uh still and whilst I

think that this agreement is more verbal

right now it serves as a good basis by

which to uh officially what create a

legally binding update to the to the

treaty because it did expire yesterday

uh after what 40 years effectively of it

being in um in effect. But um yeah, I I

think it very much is obviously Putin

trying to show his, you know,

willingness or or or genuine desire to

engage the the the Americans or Trump

specifically because then that

alleviates potentially uh economic

considerations. But um I guess lastly on

the sort of diplomatic front, what do

you think is going to happen there?

>> One one more before we jump there, one

more thing about the nuclear um treaty.

Now Putin has been launching in the last

couple years has launched Arishnik uh

mid-range intercontinental ballistic

missile that capable of carrying nuclear

warheads right he's done it twice

um he also threatened uh Europe and his

propaganda key characters threatened

Europe quite often with nuclear

obliteration ation. Okay. So, it doesn't

make any sense for Putin to sign this

treaty if he means business, right?

Because he doesn't want to be controlled

on how many warheads Russia has and he

doesn't need any regulations. Okay?

And the fact that whatever the

regulation is actually toxic for him,

the fact that Russia is negotiating with

America and then you know um the the

military forces you know negotiating

with with each other that means that

Russia is willing to go a long way to

actually um you know get something for

itself. Okay, to negotiate and to

compromise. So think about that. Oh,

absolutely. It's uh as always, look at

what's being done. Uh policy changes,

not what's being said, and verbal

threats. I mean, we're still waiting for

that ominous um nuclear strike um that

he said in 2022. Um but anyway, he's a

little bit behind schedule. Um but for

people who are unfamiliar, uh you know,

there's a difference between

intercontinental ballistic missiles or

ICBMs, which the START treaty doesn't

cover. These are are what's known as

IRBMs or inter intermediate ballistic

missiles. So they're slightly shorter

range around I think 5 to 800 miles if I

remember correctly. But anyway, I guess

my last question in this segment for you

Constantine is simply what would what do

you expect to come from the talks if

anything? I expect um that it will be

announced that um improvements uh

advancements have are made okay by by

both sides and all sides three sides

actually and three sides agree that it

is necessary to continue negotiating

further. It's it there's a need to

continue and come to a complete and

final agreement.

That's basically what I think that's

what's come going to come out of this

negotiations.

>> Yeah, me very cynically or skeptically

putting it more bluntly. Uh the Russians

are going to keep drawing this out.

They're going to show good faith in

engaging in the talks, but nothing's

actually going to happen. We've been

around on this rodeo, I think about six

times at this point, audience. So, I

think you know the gist as well. Uh but

ultimately, there's never going to be a

breakthrough because the two sides are

simply are loggerheads and the

willingness to give up land. Um, and I

think this is going to be one of the

biggest failures of peacemaker Trump uh

of his at least of the first two terms,

two years of his second term because

after the midterms, it's going to become

a lot harder for him to get things done

depending upon how the Democrats do and

whether or not one of the houses is

taken or whatever. But, um, we shall

see. But, Constantine uh, with that,

we're going to shift to the economics.

And for those of you watching, join us

in part two and the two cheeky

announcements that we've got coming up.

Yeah. So Putin's argument there is that

this slowed growth is deliberate or it's

a consequence of them trying to get the

inflation under control which is of

course a consequence of the heightened

spending that has been done on military

outlets and obviously rallying up the

economy and output. Is that obviously

all complete nonsense? Putin has said

that not not just this past time but he

said it many times similar things and

his audience is certainly not

economists. For any economist out there

the situation is crystal clear. Russia

was still earning less and less and and

spending more.