We're gonna start this section with Brett McGurk. He served as the national security council coordinator

for The Middle East under president Biden. He's also the author of a new book, Brink,

inside the race to free the October 7 hostages. Brett, thank you so much for joining

us. We wanted to have you on first to talk about the book, but you're such

a relevant guest for everything we've been talking about all morning, geopolitics on fire. So we're

gonna we're gonna start there, I think. Look, I'm really curious to get your take because

under your your wide remit as as you've been an official for different presidents, different state

departments, different national security advisers, is the Mid East Mid East and terrorism. So as you

look at this attack on the airport in Riyadh and where the Houthis are both as

a group and as an aspiring political player in the region. Can you just kind of

walk us through how we got here and what you think the threat level is, and

whether or not it's going to expand?

Yeah. Christine, thanks so much for having me. And, actually, in Brink, the first chapter lays

out some of these issues, particularly with Iran, the Houthis in Saudi Arabia. The Houthis are

an indigenous group in Yemen. They overthrew the legitimate government in Yemen a number of years

ago, actually, during the Obama administration, and there's been a civil war there going on. But

they're heavily backed by Iran. Of course, their motto is death to America, death to Israel,

curse the Jews. That's who these guys are. But massively backed by Iran, and Iran has

supplied these, you know, very advanced ballistic missile capabilities, anti ship missile capabilities. And we've tried

to deal with it in a number of ways, the Obama administration, the Trump administration. Trump

administration was heavily supporting Saudi Arabia in the conflict in Yemen. When we entered office in

the Biden administration, it's actually the first chapter in Brink. I went to see the crown

prince of Saudi Arabia very early, like the first few days of the Biden administration, and

my instructions were to explain to him that we're making changes in our policy. We cut

Saudi Arabia off from significant weapon systems. We lifted the foreign terrorist designation of the Houthis

that the Trump administration had put on. And we also, over the course of that first

year, significantly withdrew our military presence in the region. Actually, there's a scene in the in

the book where I see Adam Brad Cooper. He's a current CENTCOM commander. He was a

deputy back then. And I said, hey. What are you seeing with the Houthis and Iran's

supply to the Houthis? And he said to me, you know, Brett, I only got one

ship in the water, so it's hard for me to see much at all. And what

happened in that period was that Iran just kept supplying the Houthis. So we, you know,

we can cut off our partners and allies, but our adversaries then just kinda amp it

up. And after October 7, we saw for the first time ever anti ship seeking ballistic

missiles going 4,000 miles an hour, targeting commercial ships and our ships, a massive problem. I

went to see the Iranians in Oman. This is also in Brink in a back channel.

So you get a sense of what this is like in real time, what it's like

to deal with Iran, what it's like to deal with these guys. And the attacks, you

know, kept coming. And then we had to engage militarily. And this has kinda continued for

some time. But the attack last night is very emblematic. A very advanced sophisticated ballistic missile,

very accurate, targeting a commercial airport, and now a number of civilian casualties. It's an act

of terrorism. I think there has to be a response. But, unfortunately, you know, this is

who these guys are. And it it gets to a broader question of... And for any

president, you have to deal with this. How do you deal with gathering threats? You know,

do you take them on preemptively? How how do you deal with this? And the Houthis

just got way too powerful. They have no capability on their own. They do now because

all the training over, you know, of course, a decade or so, to manufacture these ballistic

missiles, anti ship missiles, and they're sitting there right on the Red Sea controlling access to

the Red Sea. So a huge problem. I I suspect... I mentioned Brad Cooper. He's a

CENTCOM commander. I'm sure he's coming to the White House now with... To the president with

military options for a response. We have a dead American here at the Riyadh International Airport.

But, you know, the options aren't great. It's a it's a really tough situation. They're heavily

dug into mountains. And in the age of drone warfare, and this ties it into Ukraine,

and, of the course, drones that the Russians are using in Ukraine are Iranian Shahed drones.

The Iranians transferred this technology to the Russians back in about 2022. And the Russians now

manufacture their own Iranian Shahed drones, but they added rocket. They're now rocket propelled, and they

can manufacture these things to such scale and mass. And that's the combination between Russia and

Iran. But the problem with the drones, as you know, they can fly, you know, thousand

kilometers, 1,500 kilometers. You can launch them from anywhere. And when you're when you're targeting, say,

a commercial ship or an airport, they can be very accurate. And they can come in

such numbers that even very, very sophisticated air defenses, some of them get through. Mhmm. I

can just finally make one final point. I have a scene in the book. I'm in

the situation room, and a reader is right there. And we are seeing in real time

a 170 drones, 30 cruise missiles, and then ultimately a 120 ballistic missiles at the same

time launched from Iran. The launches are timed to converge converge on Israel at the same

moment. And, you know, we we scrambled to build a coalition to help defeat this attack,

but you're right there if you read Brink. You're in the situation room what this is

like, and it's just a a wicked problem. But it's Russia. It's Iran. China is part

of this. Unfortunately, this is the world we we live in, and and The United States

has to work with our allies and partners to coordinate and try to deter and contain

as best we can. It's

just really That that scene is so vivid in the book, and I wanted to ask

you just about the seeming intractability of this conflict and and so much of what you

experienced in in this last stint in government centered on the the prospect of there being

this kind of wider war in The Middle East. And I... I'm genuinely curious at this

moment in time who the cooler head is who might prevail here in in this conflict.

Were you in your position today with whom you'd be negotiating? It does seem like it's

widened so much here, and there is so much discord throughout the region. I just sort

of wonder who the principal is or principals are with whom you you think you would

wanna be dealing to kind of calm things down, if anyone.

Well, we're in a tough situation now. You know, I've always... And and if you read

Brink, you're in you're in the room as we're we're debating the use of military. When

do we use US military power? What are the objectives? What are the... And I've always

believed in being very, disciplined in the use of US military power. What's the... What are

the ends, ways, means? What are the objectives? Like, what are we trying to do? I

thought president Trump's Operation Midnight Hammer last year was a very effective use of US military

power. It a it was a clear objective. We're gonna take out Forteau and Natanz and

nuclear sites. That's an operation that had been planned for years, and it went very well,

kinda textbook. This current war started in February. In the first night, you took out almost

the entire Iranian leadership. And once you do that, it opens a question, what is the

objective? Is it regime change, a kind of infinite objective? That's how we got ourselves in

trouble in Iraq. I lived through that. And now it is, you know, eight or nine

months later, and we're still kinda trying to figure out what exactly we want. But you

also asked a good question. Who do you talk to? And I've had this experience with

Iran... Iranians. I've I've negotiated with them a number of times. For example, in a hostage

negotiation with the Iranians, I did in the Obama administration, you don't wanna talk to the

English speaking foreign ministers and diplomats because they don't hold the keys to the hostages. So

I had to talk to the guys from the revolutionary guards and the intelligence services. Similar

here, who is actually making decisions in Iran? Is the supreme leader even alive? We don't

know. And it seems, from everything we can tell, the revolutionary guards and Ahmed Vahidi, he

is a... Just a diehard revolutionary ideologue. He has basically see... He's been now leading the

revolutionary guards. He's the decision maker, and it's gonna be very hard to ever get a

deal with him.

Brett, do you think the do you think the regime in Iran is more extreme now

than it was before the conflict began?

Well, they have consolidated the very hard line. Although I would... They were hard line before.

I don't... I've never put much stock in in in dealing with... And I've done deals

with Iran. I've been involved in conflicts with Iran that there's a moderate... You know, that

you can deal with a moderate camp. And they will make tactical deals with us, but

ultimately, their goal in Tehran, this system, is to get The US out of the Middle

East. They ultimately wanna see Israel, as they say. They wanna they wanna get rid of

Israel. That is their objective. And so you're dealing with that reality as you find tactical

deals such as the Obama era nuclear deal to put some time on the clock. But

to your question, yes. I mean, I... Go back to Ahmed Vahidi. It... For... In June...

Go back to June, the MOU that president Trump signed with Pojeskin. Pozhakian is the president

of Iran. He's one of the more pragmatic guys. Mhmm. They actually signed a deal, Trump

and Pozhakian, unprecedented. And that was the most favorable deal Iran was ever gonna get. It

it lifted all their banking and oil sanctions. The sanctions relief even went broader in many

ways than the Obama era nuclear deal. But one of the requirements was ships have to

go through the Strait Of Hormuz. And what did Iran do? They fired drones at two

commercial ships. Yeah. And the deal fell apart. And that... That's Vahidi. K? I'm sure Pajjaianz,

Basarachi, the foreign minister, they would not have given orders to fire those ships and and

break that deal. That was so favorable to Iran in many ways. But that's what we're

dealing with. So I just... I do not see near term prospects for a deal with

Iran. I think we're going to be in this kinda stalemated situation where we're applying economic

pressure, and it is real pressure. Iran has never had a blockade like this ever, but

they are then imposing costs on us. You know, they can't close the Strait Of Moose

anymore. I think we've gotten a decent handle on that, but they can... As you just

had in your last segment, they can impose costs on on using that channel, and that's

what they're doing. So they're trying to apply macroeconomic pressure. We are applying very clear micro

pressure on Iran's economy. You know, this system, eventually, let's hope it it cracks because the

Iranian people is one of the most pro West populations in the region. Anytime you can

get a a reliable pull out of there. But the the system, and I've dealing with

this for so many years, is what it is. And I would try to... As you're

playing economic pressure on Iran as we are, then you gotta think about how do you

use that in a negotiation. Right? Sure. That's really the trick here, but it's gonna be

really hard.

We just have a couple minutes left. I wanna ask you about patience, diplomatic patience here,

and that's a theme of this book as well. How much patience you had to have

in these negotiations? You have praise for Steve Witkow, as well. I'm I'm curious as you

look at him and Jared Kushner in compliment trying to find a solution to both of

these conflicts, how much confidence do you have in their ability to do that and and

their sense of how much patience it requires to get it done?

Well, and and, Brink, as you know, we had a key moment. Synagur is dead, the

leader of Hamas. Hezbollah cuts a deal. It was a key moment to go back to

the deal. And right around that time, Trump wins the election. So I knew we had

to work together if we wanted to get that ceasefire, get the hostages home. I called

Jared Kushner, started working with Steve. That's all in the book. I think it's a story

of unlikely in Washington these days, two teams coming together for the good of the country

and trying to stop a war and save lives. But, yeah, I worked closely with Steve

in that negotiation. He was extremely effective when it came down to these final two issues

that we had to bridge. But, look, they now have the most difficult files in the

world. I mean, Russia, Ukraine is so hard because Putin is a 100% determined to continue

his war in Ukraine. Yeah. He's impervious to the cost. And then the Iranians, we... I

just I just talked about. So, you know, I... They got their work cut out for

them. I'm not gonna take shots here from the chief seats. I I just... I hope

we succeed. I think to succeed on Ukraine, we gotta support Ukraine. I think the diesel

deal we cut over the weekend sends all the wrong wrong signals, and you gotta work

with your allies so that Putin realizes the cost he's suffering. You know, he's not gonna

get out of it without without cutting a deal. I think he believes... All these countries

believe, Russia, Iran, China, that time is on their side because The United States, we have

short attention span. So they can just kinda wait us out. I think that's what Putin

right now believes, and that's why this horrible war, is poised to continue. But, boy, I

hope they can succeed and find a way a way to wind down that conflict and

and find a way to some sort of arrangement with with Iran.