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Scott Galloway on Trump vs. Canada and Whether He’ll Sell His Big Tech Stocks | Office Hours

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Scott Galloway on Trump vs. Canada and Whether He’ll Sell His Big Tech Stocks | Office Hours

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588 segments

0:00

the soft tissue of corporate America or

0:02

the soft tissue of Trump is that he

0:04

responds to the markets. The only time

0:06

he has pulled back is not because of

0:07

protests or the courts. The only time or

0:10

quote unquote a co-equal branch of

0:11

government. The only time he has pulled

0:12

back is when interest rates spike or the

0:15

S&P goes down. What is our best shot at

0:17

the S&P going down? Simple. Go after the

0:19

subscription services of the companies

0:22

that represent 40% of the S&P.

0:25

>> [music]

0:26

>> In today's office hours, we talk about

0:28

Trump in Canada resisting big tech as an

0:30

investor and the value of focus. [music]

0:33

Our first question comes from Diane

0:35

Brooks one on Instagram. They say, "Why

0:38

do you think Trump is so [music] focused

0:39

on belittling Canada?" The honest answer

0:41

is I don't know because they're close or

0:43

because it's like that movie on Wall

0:45

Street where Charlie Sheen asked Michael

0:48

Douglas um why did you have to break

0:50

this company? And he goes because it was

0:51

breakable. So Canada is our largest

0:53

trading partner. Mexico and Canada are

0:56

actually tied. He's also sort of zeroed

0:58

in, I think incorrectly, on the notion

1:00

that uh past trade deals have

1:02

disadvantaged the US and Canada was

1:05

central to his push to replace NAFTA

1:06

with the USMCA. He tends to highlight

1:09

bilateral trade imbalances and sector by

1:11

sector outcomes.

1:13

And he frequently points to specific

1:16

industries, especially things like he

1:18

likes the kind of tangible stuff, dairy,

1:21

autos, lumber, steel, and aluminum,

1:24

where he says Canadian policies or

1:25

experts hurt US producers. And these

1:28

industries are typically more important

1:30

with kind of what he perceives as the

1:32

real America and people he feels are

1:33

advantageous to him politically and tend

1:35

to side with them, whether it's farmers

1:36

or the manufacturing states and the

1:39

industrial Midwest. So also I wonder if

1:41

he just sees it as a real estate play

1:43

that oh it's our neighbor let's buy

1:45

their house. The problem is it's around

1:48

all of this it's just really [ __ ]

1:50

stupid. Let's look at oil. They transfer

1:52

to us oil and energy and shale in its

1:55

Ross form and we add value to it and we

1:57

get a discount on it because of

1:59

proximity and we sell at a much higher

2:01

margin. They have manufacturing plants

2:04

where they produce cars, parts go back

2:06

and forth. They send in timber. They

2:08

send in oil manufactured products which

2:11

tend to have operating margins of 10 to

2:13

20 points and be produced by companies

2:16

that trade at a PE of say 8 to 15. And

2:18

in exchange we sell into them iPhones,

2:22

uh, chips,

2:25

digital services, banking, things that

2:27

have exceptionally high margins,

2:29

sometimes 40 to 50 points of operating

2:31

margins and are housed within companies

2:34

that trade at a PE of, you know, 20 to

2:37

50. So in some, if there's been any

2:39

asymmetry in trade, it's been towards

2:43

us. And that is for every dollar of

2:45

trade we do with Canada, we import in a

2:48

dollar worth of goods from Canada.

2:50

Right? So dollar into Canada of our

2:52

[ __ ] our iPhones, our chips. They put

2:55

in a dollar of cars, timber, oil into

2:59

the American market. The dollar we sell

3:02

into them is literally worth three to 10

3:04

times more to American shareholders or

3:06

to the American company than the

3:08

shareholder value they get from the

3:10

dollar they sell into the US. If there's

3:12

a trade imbalance or an asymmetry, it

3:15

benefits us full stop. But because it

3:17

was such a mutually beneficial

3:18

relationship and because there's been a

3:20

level of trust that's been built up

3:21

there by virtue of the fact that

3:23

Canadians went into World War II before

3:25

we did, they followed us into Iraq. They

3:26

followed us into Afghanistan. We have

3:29

fought shoulder-to-shoulder. So, uh,

3:31

Canada [ __ ] up. It trusted us. And 75%

3:35

of its exports come into the US. And I

3:39

think that essentially Trump said, "Oh,

3:41

we have leverage. Maybe they're our

3:43

friends, but we have real power and I

3:45

can bully them and push them around and

3:46

they kind of have to take whatever

3:48

tariffs we send to them." And Prime

3:50

Minister Carney has pushed back and

3:51

said, "Look, this might be bad for us uh

3:54

in the short term, but Canada's not

3:55

going to be bullied." Anyways, his views

3:57

on trade are just batshit crazy. I think

3:59

he did get China right. He did highlight

4:02

in his first administration that there

4:03

was asymmetry with China that they

4:06

basically steal our IP, rip it off and

4:08

then sell us back the finished good for

4:10

less uh gutting our industry. I think

4:12

there was real validity there. By the

4:14

way, since co Chinese exports are up 40%

4:17

but its imports are at 1%. And some

4:20

China's basically decided you can buy

4:21

our [ __ ] but we're not going to buy

4:22

yours. And that means trade

4:24

representatives all over the world need

4:26

to unify to push back on China. But when

4:28

the biggest consumer economy is

4:30

sclerotic and declaring war on all these

4:32

um foreign nations, we can't pull

4:34

together and China's been effectively

4:36

able to atomize us visav Trump's stupid

4:38

policies. According to Justin Trudeau,

4:41

Trump's obsession may be due to Canada's

4:42

significant supply of critical minerals.

4:45

And then Paul Kugman's theory is that

4:47

Trump hates Canada because it's a

4:49

fundamentally decent place. It's an

4:51

interesting theory. Trump, who nobody

4:52

would describe as a decent person,

4:54

dislikes and maybe even fears people who

4:57

are, says Kugman. Hm. That's some

5:00

armchair psychology there. But it makes

5:02

no sense. Uh they will be hurt very

5:05

badly. We will be hurt badly. And it's

5:08

essentially fraying the operating system

5:09

and the world order. And what's fueled

5:11

the middle class and unlocked

5:13

unbelievable economic growth really

5:14

since kind of the '90s and Clinton, it's

5:16

been an embrace of global trade. And

5:19

that is it is hard on certain losers,

5:21

certain industries that aren't

5:22

competitive with global suppliers. But

5:24

at the end of the day, if you can buy

5:26

bananas for less money and then reinvest

5:28

that additional consumer spending in

5:30

other products that we're better at,

5:32

what's happened over time is that we

5:34

have traded or swapped out low wage

5:37

non-competitive industries for higher

5:39

wage, higher gross margin, higher

5:41

shareholder value industries. So Dave

5:44

Chappelle summarized it perfectly. We

5:45

don't want to make Nikes, we want to

5:46

wear them. The people assembling iPhones

5:48

in China, I think it's 2,000 parts, make

5:51

about 500 bucks a month, $6,000 a year.

5:53

The average wage of an Apple employee

5:55

Certino was figuring out retail

5:57

strategy, distribution, marketing,

5:58

supply chain, uh, lobbying, regulations,

6:01

communications, investor relations, they

6:03

average about, I think, 220,000 a year.

6:06

The notion somehow that manufacturing is

6:07

going to come back, which I think was

6:08

one of the primary objectives of this

6:10

these stupid trade wars, it's not

6:12

happening. Also, folks, in terms of

6:14

manufacturing, Americans have a fetish

6:16

with it. And 80% of Americans think that

6:18

we need more manufacturing in America.

6:20

But get this, only 20% want to work in

6:22

manufacturing. You can't bring your dog

6:23

to the factory floor. These tariffs have

6:25

not in any way inspired a renaissance in

6:27

manufacturing. What they have done is

6:28

hurt some of our tourism that employs 12

6:32

million people in the tourism sector. So

6:33

in some if these tariffs and a war on

6:36

Canada make no sense economically or

6:38

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[music]

7:51

Question number two comes from mxml on

7:54

Instagram. They say, "How [music] does

7:56

your call to action to unsubscribe from

7:58

big tech impact your investment plans?"

8:00

Yeah, this is a tough one. So, I've

8:02

already unsubscribed from Uber, Amazon

8:04

Prime, and last night I spent about 2

8:06

hours trying to unsubscribe from

8:07

Paramount Plus, and I still can't figure

8:09

out I got a smiley or a sad mountain

8:11

saying I'd unsubscribe. But unsubscribe

8:13

from Uber and Amazon Prime. The really

8:15

shocking thing was when I unsubscribed

8:17

or I cancelceled my Uber account, uh, it

8:19

gives you this graphic that says, "This

8:21

is how many times you've ordered from

8:22

Uber Eats." I've ordered from Uber Eats,

8:23

I think, 34 times. And then it said,

8:25

"This is how many rides you've taken." I

8:26

think I've been a member of Uber for

8:28

about 10 years. Let me say I love Uber.

8:31

I think it's amazing. I love the little

8:33

graphic of how my Cadillac Escalade. Oh,

8:36

it's around the corner. I hope he parks

8:37

in the right spot. Oh, he's going to be

8:38

here in two. I just absolutely

8:40

love it. I think it's an amazing

8:42

service. I haven't owned a car in

8:45

[snorts] four years. And it's something

8:46

I've really enjoyed not owning a car.

8:48

All right. How many Uber rides have I

8:50

taken in the last 10 years? 3746.

8:53

Okay. See above. Love Uber. I take Uber

8:55

Lux. I like to think I'm a, you know, a

8:57

big deal. I have some money and I always

9:01

take Uber Lux. I did some analysis.

9:02

That's approximately 370 rides a year if

9:05

you divide it evenly across the 10

9:06

years. Most of my rides are to Midtown

9:09

to do a meeting, to the West Village to

9:11

go drinking or to an airport to go

9:13

somewhere else. So, my rides are

9:15

expensive. The average Uber Lux ride

9:17

when I joined in 2015 was 40 to 60

9:19

bucks. And this is the big tech

9:20

playbook. They underpric, they

9:22

consolidate the market with an

9:23

incredible offering. And then once

9:25

they've consolidated the market, they

9:27

raise prices faster than inflation,

9:28

which is what Uber has done. It has

9:30

raised prices 7 to 10% a year despite

9:32

inflation going up about 3 to three and

9:34

a half% a year. The result is in 2025,

9:37

the average price of an Uber Lux ride

9:39

for yours truly is somewhere between 80

9:41

and $120. So let's call it a hundred

9:43

bucks. So do the math. I have been

9:46

spending, no joke, $35,000 a year on

9:50

Uber. And before you say, yeah,

9:53

privileged. Yeah, I guilty. And my point

9:56

is is that you don't realize how much

9:58

money you're spending on these things

10:00

because they raise their prices. You get

10:02

used to them and they make it

10:04

frictionless such that it is so easy to

10:07

spend money. Back to your question, uh I

10:10

own stock in Apple and Amazon and Amazon

10:12

is my big tech stock pick of 2026. I

10:15

have owned these stocks since 2009.

10:18

So to sell them would incur an

10:20

extraordinary capital gain. But at the

10:23

same time, if I'm going to walk the

10:25

walk, do I really want to finance these

10:26

companies? Do I want to send a signal?

10:28

So I am contemplating selling down or

10:31

selling my positions in these companies.

10:33

I've not done it yet because, and this

10:35

is a good problem, these companies are

10:37

up 10 20x, meaning that basically the

10:39

entire sale amount is going to be

10:41

taxable. So I try to be very careful

10:43

about having an emotional reaction. At

10:45

the same time, I need to walk the walk.

10:47

I'm going to unsubscribe or cancel

10:49

something every day. I think it's

10:51

amazing how many things you have that

10:53

you didn't know you had. I have three

10:55

different chat GPT accounts. I'm not

10:57

even talking about canceling all of

10:59

them, but you know, I had a family

11:01

meeting. Family meeting. I love those.

11:03

That's my basically my boys rolling

11:05

their eyes and me lecturing at them and

11:06

saying, "Someday you'll respect me." And

11:08

I said, "We're going to cancel our

11:10

streaming media." Told them about what I

11:11

was doing. And they're like, "Yeah,

11:12

yeah, we're not." And they're like, "No,

11:13

we're not canceling our streaming

11:14

media." I'm like, "Okay, I'll let you

11:15

keep one." And of course, the argument

11:17

broke out from going, "We have six

11:19

streaming media platforms. We're going

11:20

to one. I'm not suggesting you give up

11:22

everything, but if you're a subscriber

11:24

to Anthropic or Chat GPT, pick one.

11:26

Could you do without Amazon Prime for a

11:28

month? Could you take more cabs or could

11:31

you eat local and not use Amazon

11:33

Grocery?" I mean, there's just a ton of

11:34

different subscription services you

11:37

could do away with. And one, I think

11:38

you're going to find you're going to

11:39

save money. I think it hits these firms

11:41

really, really hard. My next thing

11:44

that'll be pretty easy just to

11:45

unsubscribe from Apple TV. By the way,

11:47

these companies have have increased

11:49

their prices 20 to 40% just over the

11:51

last two or three years. And the soft

11:54

tissue of corporate America or the soft

11:57

tissue of Trump is that he responds to

11:59

the markets. The only time he has pulled

12:01

back is not because of protests or the

12:02

courts. The only time or quote unquote a

12:04

co-equal branch of government. The only

12:06

time he has pulled back is when interest

12:08

rates spike or the S&P goes down. What

12:10

is our best shot at the S&P going down?

12:12

Simple. go after the subscription

12:14

services of the companies that represent

12:17

40% of the S&P and that is if you cancel

12:22

Chat GPT at 20 bucks a month they're pro

12:24

offering that's $240 right okay it's not

12:27

a lot of money but say you decided not

12:29

to buy groceries Kroger's trades at.3

12:33

times revenues open AI trades at 40

12:37

times revenues what does that mean that

12:39

means that every dollar that goes to

12:42

Chat GPT results in about $130 in market

12:45

value. Put another way, you could buy

12:48

$30,000 less groceries. The average home

12:51

spends $6,000 on groceries. Meaning five

12:54

homes, American homes, could take all of

12:57

their grocery spending down to zero and

12:58

I guess plant gardens and figure out a

13:00

way to survive. And it would have the

13:02

same impact on the markets as one person

13:04

canceling their chat GPT subscription.

13:07

So, I'm suggesting we focus on pulling

13:10

the string that might have a real impact

13:11

on the markets, which is the only thing

13:13

that Trump listens to. But back to your

13:16

original question, I am going to do

13:18

something involving my stocks and my

13:20

capital to try and send a signal to

13:22

these companies and these financial

13:24

institutions that they need to speak up

13:27

before it is too [music] late. And if

13:29

you're interested in joining us, please

13:30

go to resistandunsubscribe.com.

13:33

Again, that's resistandunscribe.com. and

13:35

we've tried to make it really easy with

13:36

links for you to investigate which big

13:40

tech subscriptions you can easily cancel

13:42

without much impact on your day-to-day

13:44

life. We'll be right back after a quick

13:46

break.

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>> Welcome back. Question number three. Hi

15:52

Scott, my question is about the value of

15:54

focusing on one project [music] and how

15:57

elastic one's focus should be. Due to my

15:59

ambition and FOMO, I've spent most of my

16:01

life managing or building multiple

16:03

projects at the same time. A full-time

16:05

career, a couple small businesses,

16:07

investing, thought, leadership, etc.

16:09

I've had an epiphany that maybe my

16:11

outcomes have been worse than if I just

16:13

focused on doing one of those things

16:14

really well. I see you as someone who

16:16

has many pots cooking at the same time,

16:17

but it seems like they all use the same

16:19

ingredients. For example, the content

16:21

you create for Prof Media becomes a

16:23

book, newsletter, and a section course.

16:26

What are your thoughts on focus, how

16:27

liberal one's focus should be, and if

16:29

finding synergies between projects is

16:31

essential to making them all work? Or

16:33

maybe you think people should just have

16:35

one successful project before expanding

16:37

into others.

16:38

>> Uh yeah, a secret weapon that most

16:40

people don't take advantage of is focus.

16:42

And that is I'll give an example. I hate

16:44

side hustles. There was a trend around

16:46

side hustles. Everybody needs all young

16:48

people need a side hustle to make some

16:49

extra money. If you're spending a lot of

16:51

time on side hustles, it means you need

16:53

to find a different main hustle. And I

16:55

think your job in your 20s is not to

16:56

find your passion, but to find something

16:58

you're really good at and then double

16:59

down on it and focus on it and try and

17:01

become one of the 10 top 10% of that

17:04

profession with an objective of within

17:06

10 years being in the top 1%. I think

17:08

it's okay to workshop stuff if you don't

17:10

love your main gig. You got to make some

17:12

money. You want to investigate some

17:13

other things. You want to dip your toes

17:14

in water. But as soon as you find

17:16

something where you think I could be in

17:18

the top 10% in three years and the top

17:20

1% in 10 years, I think you go all in on

17:23

it. Now what I've done is I've basically

17:26

gone allin on one function and leveraged

17:30

a superpower. Now what is that function?

17:32

I've gone allin on storytelling and that

17:34

is I create a lot of content where I try

17:36

and find data uh couch it in a

17:38

entertaining, humorous, provocative,

17:41

irreverent way. That is what I do.

17:43

That's my super power. That's my focus.

17:45

The majority of my day is around

17:47

creating content that is entertaining

17:48

and educational. Now, my superpower is

17:51

finding really talented people that

17:53

scale that focus. We have a graphics

17:56

team. We have a video team. I was just

17:58

talking to a woman who runs our company,

18:00

Katherine Dylan, who I've been working

18:01

with for 15 years, and she's saying, "We

18:02

need more people on the video team." I'm

18:04

like, "Go ahead, make a full another

18:05

full-time hire. We have probably 25

18:08

full-time people and another half a

18:09

dozen contractors working at ProfG G to

18:12

try and scale my focus and each of them

18:16

has their own focus. Katherine's a great

18:18

manager. She's very good with people but

18:20

she also is very good on the creative

18:21

side. Billy runs our video group. Drew

18:24

is our tech guy. So what I would suggest

18:26

is find someone close to you who

18:28

understands business and say this is all

18:30

I'm doing. Should I pair a couple of

18:32

these things? And pairing is really

18:34

important. So for example, I don't go on

18:36

boards for longer than four years and

18:39

I'm now much more disciplined around

18:42

okay this sounds interesting but what am

18:44

I going to get from it? How is it going

18:45

to advance? I try and set corporate

18:48

objectives financial objectives every

18:50

year objectives around my relationships

18:52

mostly around my boys and then I run

18:55

almost every decision or allocation of

18:56

time and I used to say yes to goddamn

18:58

everything. You know the sexist word in

19:00

the English language is no. So, the

19:02

problem most people have is not what

19:04

they say yes to, but what they say no

19:05

to. And what I would suggest is you just

19:07

do an audit and have some friends help

19:08

you and say, "What am I really good at?

19:10

What would pay the most dividends if it

19:12

got into the top 10 or 1%." And then

19:14

quite frankly, try to outsource or clear

19:16

everything else off those decks. Now, if

19:18

you haven't figured that out, dancing in

19:19

different parties might make sense to

19:21

see which one gets traction, but at some

19:23

point you should be totally focused on

19:25

one thing. And then success is a series

19:29

of small acts of discipline every day.

19:31

If you're doing financial content on

19:33

TikTok, you need to put out one, two,

19:35

three pieces of content every day. It's

19:37

like investing. Small acts of discipline

19:39

every day. A few bucks every day adds up

19:41

to millions by the time you're my age.

19:43

So what are we going to do? We're going

19:44

to build a kitchen cabinet of people.

19:45

You're going to describe very honestly

19:47

and openly all the things you're doing,

19:48

what's working, what isn't. Ask them

19:50

where you should be focusing or if you

19:51

should be focusing. And then you're

19:53

going to be very disciplined about

19:54

doubling down and putting all of your

19:56

human capital into that one thing such

19:58

that you can be in the top 10 or the top

20:01

1%. And then you're going to get really

20:03

good at saying no such you free up more

20:05

human capital to provide the artillery

20:06

and the ammunition to be exceptionally

20:08

focused. That's all for this episode. If

20:10

you'd like to submit a question, please

20:11

email a voice recording to office

20:13

hours.com.

20:15

Again, that's office hours at

20:16

proprochdia.com. Or if you prefer to ask

20:19

on Reddit, just post your question on

20:20

the Scott Galloway subreddit and we just

20:22

might feature it in an upcoming episode.

20:26

[music]

20:33

[music]

Interactive Summary

The video discusses various topics including Trump's trade policies, particularly towards Canada, and the impact of big tech companies on consumers and investment. It also touches upon the value of focus in professional life and the strategy of synergizing projects. The speaker argues that Trump's actions against Canada are economically unsound and driven by a flawed understanding of trade. The discussion then shifts to the speaker's personal decision to unsubscribe from big tech services, highlighting how these companies incrementally increase prices and become embedded in users' lives. The speaker contemplates selling stocks in these companies due to capital gains but emphasizes the importance of sending a signal by reducing patronage. Finally, the importance of focus and discipline in achieving professional success is stressed, advocating for specialization and saying 'no' to distractions.

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