The US renewables industry is dead.

Killed by a president [music] who hates

wind turbines and loves supporting the

fossil fuel industry. That's the

narrative we often hear coming out of

the US right now. But is it true? This

is zero. I am Axhatraati. This week,

what's really happening to the

renewables industry in the US?

[music]

President Donald Trump's administration

has taken a big swipe at clean energy

policies in the US, gutting tax credits

for wind and solar, removing subsidies

for electric cars, and even using

taxpayer dollars to halt the development

of offshore wind farms. That has [music]

certainly hurt the country's clean

energy credentials. But if you look at

the deployment figures, renewables are

still winning. 90% of all new power

generating capacity added to the grid

last [music] year was made up of solar,

wind and batteries. The same thing is

expected to happen this year. So why the

discrepancy between the narrative and

the deployment? One place we can try to

find an answer is in the US state of

Arkansas. It is now home to the Steel

River Energy Center which will become

one of the largest solar and battery

storage projects anywhere [music] in the

US. When all three phases are completed

in 2029, it will have 2.5 gawatt of

solar and 2.9 [music]

gatt hours of battery storage. That

plant alone will be enough to power a

small city. My guest today is playing a

leading role in that [music] building

frenzy, having secured $3.5 billion in

financing. His name is Kevin Smith and

he's the chief executive officer of

Cypress Creek Energy. He spent the last

two decades working in renewables in

[music] the US and abroad. And he

believes everything points to a future

powered by solar and batteries, even in

the US. But given the barriers that the

Trump administration has put up, can

that really happen? The government keeps

raising tariffs on China, does it have

enough of its own manufacturing capacity

for clean energy? And do companies

building artificial intelligence, the

core reason for rising electricity

demand in the US, really care if it

comes from renewables?

>> Welcome to the show, Kevin.

>> Thank you very much. It's nice to be

here.

>> So, you've been in the energy industry

for 40 years, two decades in oil and

gas, and then the last two decades in

renewables. And you've seen many ups and

downs in both industries. In the US

specifically right now, the narrative is

that the US renewables industry is under

attack from the Trump administration and

the future for the industry is dire than

it has ever been before. Is it true?

>> Uh well, the first part is true, the

second part is not true. Um so certainly

the industry has been under attack by

the administration. Frankly, you know,

with Americans struggling to to pay

their electric bills, doesn't make sense

uh to be attacking the uh most

affordable coh energy cost out there

with with solar and and renewables

generally. Um so yes, the industry has

been has been under attack with policy

changes and policy issues with the with

the administration. However, the

industry is thriving. If you look at

2025 and 2026, um you know, upwards to

90% of all new generation is renewables,

primarily solar and and battery storage

has been upwards to 80% of new

generation is solar and and and battery

storage. And largely that's because it's

the most affordable cost of energy.

>> And so right now, you know, the

deployment figures do reach this record.

But one of the reasons why we are seeing

a sped up deployment in 2025 and 2026 is

because there were these tax credits

that are supposed to expire. So from

July 4th, 2026,

if your solar plant is not under

construction, you are not going to be

getting US government credits.

Is the boom then over?

>> Uh no, not at all. And in reality the

the you know projects to qualify for the

tax credits um you know have certain

conditions where they can qualify for

starter construction. They need to be in

into commercial operation by the end of

2030. Um so we have you know a number a

number more years where tax credits will

be applied and frankly that helps keep

you know electricity prices down. My

view is with or without tax credits, and

I think the industry's view is with or

without tax credits, we're the most

competitive source of of electricity out

there. You take away the tax credits, it

raises the the cost of the most

affordable um electricity price. Um but

we're still, you know, much more

competitive than than natural gas or

certainly more competitive than than

nuclear, new nuclear or new coal. But

I'm looking at Bloomberg NF forecasts

for solar for example and they peak in

2026 and start to decline all the way

till 2031 and only really reach the 2026

levels in 2032. So there is a decline.

It's not like it's going to zero. It's

going from something like 50 gawatt

built which includes all types of solar

by the way down to 40 gawatt and then

back up to 50 in 6 years time. But there

is a decline right. Well, I I mean, you

could argue whether it's the decline or

whether we have this, you know, kind of

short-term boom um that's resulting in a

a increase in in renewables for a short

period of time while the tax credits are

still in effect. And then it goes back

now down to a normal level. I mean, even

the normal level, I mean, 40 gawatt a

year, um, you know, if a decade ago you

said we're going to build 40 gawatt a

year of wind when we were building, I

don't know, a tenth of that, it would be

kind of an amazing figure to look at. So

40 gawatts a year is is, you know,

hundred billion dollars of construction

on renewable energy projects, which is

tremendous amount of growth. So, you've

just signed this $3.5 billion financing

deal for one of US's biggest solar and

battery projects. Just to put it in

context,

China, India, and even the UAE have

built far bigger projects, but for the

US, it is one of the biggest. How long

does it take to build it?

>> It's about a two just over a 2-year

construction period. I mean, the first

phase will start generating electricity

by um say mid 2028. The first two phases

um are 1.6 gawatts of solar PV and then

1.9 gawatt hours of uh battery storage.

There's a third phase. They're kind of

three equal phases. So there's a third

phase that we're hoping to start

construction on later this year or early

next. That third phase would be into

operation by the end of 2029.

>> Where are the solar panels and batteries

for these projects coming from? Um the

solar panels are 100% US-made for solar.

Um so it's and and they're you know uh

First Solar has some overseas

manufacturing but but these these these

panels are 100% made in the US. Um we're

also quite proud that that it's the vast

majority of the steel is actually being

manufactured in Mississippi County,

Arkansas. You know, we like to refer to

the project as built on Arkansas steel.

The batteries are coming from LG and

they're US manufacturing as well. you

know, for those that that think you

can't um supply um the renewable energy

industry with US manufacturing, that's

happening as we speak. I mean, tens of

billions of dollars have been invested

in US manufacturing. Um and that's

continuing to supply and and will

continue to supply um US renewable

energy projects for the foreseeable

future.

>> And what about the battery metals that

LG uses to be able to make those

batteries? Well, that I mean there are

some certainly there are some components

that are coming from overseas. Um you

know I don't think you could pull pull

look at one energy industry supply

whether it's natural gas or nuclear or

coal and and look at and say are 100% of

all components coming from US

manufacturers. I would like to think

that renewable energy, you know, the the

percent of components that are coming

from US is greater than most of those

other other uh electricity supply. Um,

you know, a lot of the nuclear

technology now is overseas. Two out of

the three main gas turbine manufacturers

are overseas. Like I said, I think

renewable energy and and solar and and

battery storage specifically are are are

being dominated by US component supply.

And you talked about the fact that you

know solar and batteries are now the

cheapest that can be offered to US

consumers. How much cheaper would they

be if there were no restrictions on

imports?

>> Well, that would you know I mean we've

got two things happening. One is is that

the tax credits are being taken away and

you know we're paying you know probably

for solar panels. We're probably in some

cases paying triple what the rest of the

world is paying. you know, um, you know,

we're, you know, panel prices right now,

solar module prices are in the, you

know, call it, you know, 32 to 38 cent

range depending on the time of year and

and and who your supplier supplier is.

You know, the rest of the world can can

get uh less expensive panels in the in

the low teens, 12, 13 cents a a watt.

And all that all that tariff is being

passed through to to electricity

consumers. So you and I are paying that

in our electricity bills.

>> Well, I am based in London, so not me

yet, but

>> uh certainly I'm paying it in my

electricity bills. All those tariffs

are, you know, have to be passed through

into capital costs and passed through

into electricity prices.

>> And what about batteries? If you compare

no imports with tariffs on

>> Yeah. I mean, we're similar issue. It's

probably not triple. I would probably

say it's it's certainly close to double

what international projects are are

dealing with with regards to battery

costs because of the tariff issues. Um

so as I said that increases uh capital

costs and it increases prices to

consumers.

>> A solar battery project right now is

about $2,500 a kilowatt in the US. You

said roughly if you take these

reductions and tear away the trade

barriers what could it come down to? um

you're certainly probably under 1,500 I

would think

>> given where the cost is today and where

the trade barriers are and where future

looks like which doesn't look like it's

going to come down anytime soon these

trade barriers. How does the pipeline

for you and developers like you look

like today?

>> Well, obviously we have projects that

we're proceeding with in the over the

next several years that would qualify

for tax credits. as the tax credits

start to roll off, we're going to have

to increase our electricity prices, you

know. So, I like to talk generically

about a a $60 megawatt hour solar

project um today with tax credits

without tax credits is probably more

like $85 or $90 a megawatt hour. But you

compare that against a natural gas

project, combined cycle project with,

you know, top-of-the-line equipment, you

know, high efficiency gas turbines,

you're probably in the $120 to $140 a

megawatt hour range. So, we're still

even with rolling off the tax credits

and with paying all these tariffs, we're

still cheaper than than a natural gas

combined cycle facility. And so for this

first phase of the Steel River Energy

Center in Arkansas that you're building,

where is the electricity going to go?

I'm assuming a data center.

>> In reality, that that project is grid

connected. Okay. So, we we sell 100% of

our electricity to the grid. Um we have

a we have a I'll say a financial

contract with a tech player that will be

announced uh next month. Um, but Energy

Arkansas is is receiving all the all the

energy onto their transmission system

and they're distributing it across their

network. Like I said, we have a

financial structure with a a tech player

to give us a guarantee on the price that

we're getting for our electricity.

That's a bit more financial transaction.

The actual electrons are going to the

grid and being distributed by Energy

Arkansas. 7 8 years ago you did an

interview with CGTN where you said you

know India and China are building a lot

of renewables because those are the

countries where electricity demand is

growing at 7 8% and when there is growth

the industry grows you can now say the

same thing in the US but that

electricity demand is now finally

growing maybe not 8% but it's growing 3

4 5%. And a lot of that is to do with AI

and data centers. One thing that we've

seen in these data center stories is

that these companies want to build these

data centers really quickly and then

they want an uptime that is 99.9% of the

time. Now solar and batteries can be

built fast. You know, you're talking

about 2-year project to build one of the

largest solar and battery project in the

US. But gas and batteries can keep the

uptime that they need. And right now it

seems like gas plus batteries are

winning out. How can renewables compete

with those constraints?

>> I mean that's interesting interesting uh

I'll say statements in there. So there's

a few things going on. One is my view is

the vast majority of data centers if in

order to get 99.999

or even 99.9

really need to be grid connected. Okay.

So there are a number of projects, you

know, we had a debate internally about

how many of those behind the meter

projects were getting built that were

off-rid and had this mix of gas and

batteries and solar. It's really kind of

a handful. Okay, the vast majority of

data centers are in order to get that

reliability are going to need to be grid

connected. with that as a backdrop that

most of them will be grid connected then

solar and battery storage is a great

tool for the utilities to provide you

know affordable energy. Um they've got a

mix you know their own base where where

includes a mix of fossil fuels and

nuclear and renewables to serve that

load. So, you know, and and we are

looking at, you know, for a data center

that does need a behind the meter

solution, we are looking at a mix of of

solar and battery storage and and

potentially some natural gas in there.

But, but like I said, my view is 80%

plus of data centers that go in are

going to be grid connected.

>> That might be true this year, next year.

Uh but it looks like when I look at

again projections from Bloomberg NEF's

new energy outlook that was just

recently published purely a data

centerdriven addition on the grid. It

starts to become gasheavy starting in

2027 all the way to 2035.

By 2035 we are looking at 80 to 90% of

the additional power demand for data

centers being met by gas.

Are they wrong? I've looked at other

projections, you know, from the

International Energy Association, from,

you know, the National Energy Resources,

from, you know, Wood McKenzie. We're

still seeing substantial amount of

growth and supply from solar and and

battery storage. I mean, you you talked

about 40 gawatts a year. Even 5 years

ago, 40 gawatt was would be viewed as a

tremendous amount of growth in the in

the solar space. projections will be

interesting to see how that all sorts

itself out. I mean, what's happening

today? 90% of all new generation is

coming from renewables and battery

storage. Now, will that change? Yes, I

believe there will be more natural gas

put onto the onto the system. But when

you talk about, I'll say grid connected,

you know, nuclear and and and and

natural gas, you know, they need that

$120 to $140 price round the clock.

Okay? So even when power prices drop to

20 or $30 in the middle of the night and

the grid could provide very coste

effective power um because demand is low

in the middle of the night that gas

turbine project or that nuclear

project's got to continue to generate in

order to pay its off its its capital

costs. So this is where I think the

global numbers and the US numbers

actually diverge drastically. And you

look at a global picture and the global

picture certainly says that a lot of the

power demand will be met by solar and

batteries, a little bit of wind. But

when it comes to the US, it's the only

place, the only large economy that is

increasing its gas power load from 2025

to 2035. But you don't think that's the

case because financially

renewables have to win?

>> Um, I'll say yes. The simple answer is

yes. I mean, the dynamics in the US are

a little bit different. Number one is

we're penalizing heavily with tariffs uh

renewable energy. So, we're forcing

we're forcing prices higher than they

normally would be. The rest of the world

isn't doing that. The rest of the world

is trying to do the opposite is is is

restricting barriers. The other dynamic

is that US does have an abundance of

natural gas. Um and and and our cost of

natural gas is cheaper than the rest of

the world. Now as we build more LNG

terminals and natural gas becomes a bit

more like oil, a commodity, a worldwide

commodity as opposed to trapped gas in

the US, then the price of natural gas

will rise and that'll affect obviously

you know the build. I'm, you know, very

bullish on solar and and and battery

storage even at the 40 to 50 gawatt

level that that we talked about, you

know, because I actually, you know,

solar largely, if you look at the

projections, you know, from 20 years ago

and from 15 years ago and from 10 years

ago, solar has beaten all of those

projections and I'm pretty bullish that

it'll continue to do that. One other

bearish uh note on solar that I should

bring up then is uh the residential

solar industry in the US uh which

installed about 4 GW of solar in 2026

15% lower than last year and less than

half of what was installed in 2023 and a

large part of that is because of the

removal of federal subsidies uh on

rooftop solar and the fact that you have

all these tariffs etc. you don't worry

that that kind of impact that's come on

a residential solar will come to the

utility scale projects that you work on.

>> It's a completely different market. You

know, I mean, putting 20 or 30 panels on

a on a roof is a whole lot more

expensive than, you know, building 2

million panels on farmland in Arkansas

or on a in a in a ranch in Texas. So the

demand that we're seeing on the on the

solar side is is going to continue to to

to grow our business.

After the break, I asked Kevin whether

President Trump's anti-wind crusade is

going to come to solar.

Going back to your point about

electricity demand and that's sort of

helping the solar and battery boom in

the US. There is a fear that perhaps

maybe all this demand

may not pan out. Um that could be a bare

case for AI data centers. The other bare

case could be that AI data centers are

not popular.

Lots of people oppose them uh just for

how they look or the noise they produce

or others oppose them because they are

increasing power bills as you talked

about that could also start to reduce

the number of data centers that get

built in the US just from a power demand

perspective if that comes to pass if

there is not quite the bull case for

power demand for data centers does it

affect the future for renewables you

think in the US

>> well you know as As I've kind of said,

you know, multiple times, the the, you

know, solar and battery storage is the

most affordable. Okay. And it's also

quick quickest to market. Now, a behind

the meter natural gas fired project for

a data center that needs to provide 59's

reliability is a very expensive

facility. Um, if the data center load

goes down and you don't have as many of

those behind the meter projects, then

you you'll likely it'll come out of the

natural gas side of the of the model,

not so much out of the solar and and

battery storage, which is largely grid

connected solar. Some people talk about

data center is about 50% of the growth,

you know, or 60% of the growth that

we're going to see in in electricity

demand. But there's electrification

going on across the across the country.

You know, manufacturing activities, you

know, electric vehicles. We are

continuing to see growth that is

non-data center related. But as you

point out, if that data center growth

doesn't materialize as we expect, my

expectations are it probably means that

we build less natural gas.

>> It's worth mentioning wind as well. In

2025, President Trump signed an

executive order halting the permitting

of new wind projects. That was

challenged in courts and a federal judge

blocked that executive order. And this

month, the Trump administration has

decided not to appeal. But then there is

a new case that's been brought by

renewable groups who are suing the US

government because the Pentagon, the

Department of Defense is holding back

the review of wind power projects which

has really brought wind development to a

halt. Do you think this this anti- wind

crusade is going to come to solar?

>> It doesn't appear that it will. Okay.

Um, and and mostly because I think I

think the economics are clear and the

and the the amount of solar and and

battery storage that's that's helping

helping the grid and helping keep

electricity prices down. It doesn't make

any sense to try and shut that off.

It'll it'll likely raise electricity

prices, but the administration seems to

have, I'll say, a non-economic

um non-technical

adverse reaction to to building wind,

which doesn't make a whole lot of sense

either, quite frankly.

>> Now, taking more a global view, and you

know, you've worked in renewable energy

projects outside of the US as well.

One framing that shows up again and

again is that look oil and gas companies

they are high risk but high reward.

Renewable energy companies now they're

kind of low risk low reward. Do you

think low profitability in renewables is

holding back the industry? Historically,

returns, you know, over the last five

years, returns on investments in

renewable energy have have been lower

than on the oil and gas sector. Postco

and and the and the the war in in

Ukraine and now the the the war in in

Iran, we have seen over the last couple

of years returns because of the demand.

We have seen returns for renewable

energy projects improve substantially

but they are lower risk. Okay, which you

know you know a lot of utilities,

pension funds, you know, other investors

like that lowrisk profile that renewable

energy provides. So there is a segment

of the market that likes to drill and

and and is willing to take those high

risk high return higher return

potentially higher return projects. And

there's also a significant segment that

that's looking for lower risk, but still

strong returns. I mean, we're we're

seeing pretty strong returns in the

renewable energy sector these days. Um

maybe not quite as high as a return if

you decide you want to do a, you know,

wildcat drilling program in West Texas,

but it's a completely different risk

profile.

>> Is there anything that can be done to

increase the profitability of renewable

energy industry? You know those things

have a tendency to to sort itself out

based on supply and demand of investors

as well. If there was a a shortage of

investors in re renewable energy, you

would see returns rise. Okay. But there

isn't a shortage of investors in the

renewable energy sector. Both on the

debt side, you know, tax equity, you

know, while those tax credits exist and

and the equity players like ourselves,

you know, there isn't necessarily a

shortage. Um, but like I said, returns

have have have risen, you know, to

double digits over the last several

years. And so, you know, we see adequate

and and I'll say substantial amount of

invest investment appetite still looking

at investing tens of billions of dollars

of year per year in uh in renewable

energy projects. We are seeing though in

markets where solar penetration has been

high that investments are starting to

slow down because you're getting so many

hours of what we call negative

electricity prices essentially there's

too much solar than what the the grid

can consume that of course is

encouraging battery storage but it has

just because of the negative electricity

prices and hours hundreds of hours now

here in Europe for example um it's

starting to slow down the deployment of

solar as a result and also of course it

affects the profitability of those

projects. Is there a way that not just

batteries but other demand side projects

could take off? Are you seeing the

growth of projects that want to take

advantage of negative priced electricity

come through run only in the hours when

those prices exist? Um yes, I mean there

there are industries that you know I

mean cryptocurrency is probably the one

of the bigger ones you know they you

know where where they can kind of run

when electricity prices are low. You

know there are other industries that are

looking at that. I mean the US market is

is quite a bit different and you know to

a to a large extent less advanced from

renewable energy than some of the

European countries. So, you know, while

California and Texas, talk about times

of the year where there's 50% of the

energy is coming from renewables, you

don't see that in, you know, Arkansas

and Indiana and Pennsylvania and Alabama

and, you know, those kinds of places

where you see maybe a few percent um

coming from renewable energy. So, the

the ability and the areas for growth

across the US are still, you know, still

pretty tremendous. I mean, you could

see, you know, dramatic increases in

those markets over the next couple of

decades, and it would take them a while

to get up to 50% supply from renewable

energy.

>> So, one thing that's worth noting in

these uh 2026 record figures for solar

installation is that 74% of all solar

capacity that was installed in the first

quarter of 2026 was in Texas, Florida,

Ohio, Indiana, Michigan, Arizona, and

Mississippi. all that voted for Trump.

These are the places that are seemingly

loving solar. Do you see that kind of

wedge showing up at US politics in maybe

the midterms or the next presidential

election where this attack on renewables

turns into people wanting a leader that

actually brings renewables regardless of

climate goals, but just because it's

cheap. It definitely should. And it's

not just what what's critical is it's

not just we're building projects in

those in those markets. You know, the

vast majority of the manufacturing jobs

that have been created over the last 5

years in the renewable energy sector is

in those same same states. I mean, First

Solar's manufacturing facilities, you

know, historically the the legacy

facilities in Ohio, they built new

facilities in Alabama, Louisiana, South

Carolina. Okay. Uh, Next Power, um, LG,

you know, QC cells, there's and there's

just a long list of manufacturers that

have built manufacturing, tens of

thousands of jobs, tens of billions of

dollars of investment in red states.

Okay, the figure was more than 80% of

all manufacturing for renewable energy

is in red states. So I mean that is not

having as a big effect as you would

think, but it's starting to resonate.

>> One reason why the oil and gas industry

seems to get its way is because it has

had for a long time a very powerful

lobby. The renewable energy industry is

newer uh but is also as some people say

not as organized. You're part of that

industry. What are you doing to try and

improve your political chances in the

elections to come?

>> We're participating in the industry

groups. I mean there's you know the

three main industry groups that affect

renewable energy and and solar you know

the solar energy industry association

you know called sea there's ACP which is

American clean power and there's and

there's ACOR which is American Council

on Renewable Energy those three groups

are the three largest industry groups

and and we are trying to to to kind of

mobilize from a a lobbying activity um

and policy and also trying to make sure

that those three groups are working

together. I'll say the main difference

is you know while you know renewable

energy is is the most affordable supply

out there it's also and and as you

mentioned it's a lower risk low lower

return. So you know the oil and gas

industries have been have been thriving

for 100 years. you know, you've got, you

know, record profits during the the the

current war in Iran and record profits

when the war in Ukraine broke out. That

profitability is is a lot more muted in

the renewable energy industry. So, the

the oil and gas industry, you know,

outspends

uh probably 100 to one the renewable

energy industry in lobbying efforts. And

unfortunately,

I think that's likely going to continue.

I think we've got the right message. We

don't have the right lobbying dollars

behind it. We're trying to figure out

ways to to increase the voice uh of

renewable energy and get that message

out that this is the most affordable

electricity supply out there without

having to spend the massive dollars that

the oil and gas industry does on

lobbying and and policy activities in

DC. So would you conclude that the

narrative that the renewables industry's

future in the US is dire is not true?

>> Absolutely not. Absolutely not. I made a

conscious choice. Okay. You know, I was

in the nuclear industry. I spent a good

portion of my career, you know, upwards

of 20 years developing natural gas

projects both in the US and

internationally. My view is this is

going to be a solar world. Okay. It's

just a question of when. Thank you,

Kevin.

>> Thank you very much.

>> And thank you for listening to Zero. Now

for the sound of the week.

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