All right, Alexander, let's talk about

what is happening in uh Ukraine and with

uh with Russia and the recent uh very

largecale uh missile and drone strikes

>> into Ukraine, focusing on uh on Kiev,

but also targeting uh Sunumi. Sunumi got

hit particularly hard

>> uh yesterday. But the the latest reports

that I've seen claim anywhere between 50

to 70 missiles were launched into into

Ukraine. focusing on uh on Kiev mostly.

And uh and some reports claim, well, the

Russian Ministry of Defense actually

claims that uh that these strikes were

done in retaliation for the drone

strikes into Russia from the Ukraine

military. What What are your thoughts?

Planned or were these planned strikes or

or were they done in retaliation?

>> I I have no doubt that they are planned

strikes and that they're part of a

strategy that has been developed for

quite a long time. The Russians always

say that these are retaliatory strikes

because according to the provisions of

the special military operation, they are

supposed to attack only military and

militaryindustrial facilities. By saying

that these are retaliatory strikes, it

gives them legally I'm I'm talking about

internal Russian law legally a bit more

flexibility.

So it it works to their advantage to say

that these are retaliatory strikes. But

if you look at the kind of targets that

they carry out. If you look at the scale

and complexity of these strikes, there

is no doubt at all to my mind that these

are carefully prepared weeks in advance

as part of a military campaign, a

campaign of strikes against Ukraine,

which we're now going which we're

starting to see build up and which will

continue to build up over the course of

the summer. We had a very big strike if

you remember early in June um after the

start of Bellk attack. I made the same

point then the Russians said that was a

retaliatory strike but in fact I've no

doubt that it was the first of several

the sequence of strikes. There's now

been the next big one. We're going to

see more and more big ones like this

happen. And the Russians have been

stockpiling drones. They've been

modernizing their Gan drones. There's

some reason to think I think that their

equivalent to Starlink, the Rasvet

system may be operating at least at some

level. Putin has hinted at this and I

think over the course of the summer and

autumn, we're going to see these strikes

ramp up even as the Russian ground

offensive continues. One thing I would

say, well, there's two things I would

say about the strike. again um air

defenses, Ukrainian air defenses not

really functioning very effectively

anymore. Ukraine very short of Patriot

missile systems as it accept as it

admits itself. Um it claims always that

it's shot down many missiles. The

reality is the the pictures the

information we get from the ground tell

us a very different story. Um secondly,

no use by the Russians over the course

of this strike of the Arashnik. There's

been much speculation about when the

Russians are going to start using the

Arashnik in a big way. Putin has said

again that it is being developed and

perfected to conduct strikes within

urban areas

implying that it's going to be used

against bunkers in Kiev and Harf and

other places but it wasn't used in the

strike that's just taken place. And the

fact that Sunumi was hit so heavily is

of course fully consistent with this

strike being um coordinated with Russian

movements on the ground.

>> You say they're building up to

something. What is that something? What

are they building up towards? Because

>> they've been building up for about three

months now. and and and it seems that

over the past month or two,

>> yeah,

>> uh they've launched uh less less drones

into into Ukraine and less uh missile

strikes into Ukraine while Ukraine has

>> has definitely increased almost on a

daily basis the drone strikes into

Russia. So, what is what do you think

the the Russian military is up to?

>> I I I I'm going to actually go beyond

that. I don't think that they're

building up. They've been building up

over the last few months. I think that

what we're seeing is a developing

pattern of Russian drone and missile

strikes going back all the way to

October 2022.

These strikes are getting larger in

scale and more sophisticated all the

time. Um the Russians began their

missile offensive back in October 2022,

their first big missile strikes. Um,

it's clear, I think increasingly, that

they were themselves learning how to

conduct missile strikes and

understanding better the nature of the

Ukrainian air defenses. So, you know,

it's very typical of the Russians, the

slow big build up with more and more

types of weapons, more and more types of

missiles, ballistic missiles, cruise

missiles, hypersonic missiles, different

types of hypersonic missiles, more

sophisticated drones, electrooptical

drones, all of those things. until

eventually, probably within the the next

few months, as all of these weapon

systems become perfected and as the

ability to coordinate and operate these

strikes becomes perfected and as

Ukrainian air defenses are further

ground down, then you will get the

bigger strikes happen or rather the more

um the strikes which will be mostly

carried out in order to facilitate ate

the ground offensive that the Russians

are doing. So I these are not strikes

that are just being done in order to

cause damage in Kiev or to create lots

of noise and pictures and things of this

kind. It's basically part of a approach

to um enable the Russian military to

advance in particular places to disrupt

Ukrainian communications, Ukrainian

logistics, um Ukrainian um ability to

resist these Russian advances on the

battlefields. And I think there's a few

things I'd just quickly say. I mean, one

of the other things that we are starting

to see increasingly is that Russian the

Russian air force bombers are now much

more active over Ukrainian cities. They

are less concerned, it seems, about

Ukrainian air defenses. So the Russians

tried to carry out air strikes with um

bombers acro against Ukrainian cities in

2022.

Several of their Suhoy 34s were shot

down. They then stopped doing that. Now

increasingly they are doing it again.

They're using these FAB bombs which are

being used apparently in quantities that

um are greater than we've seen at any

time in the war. And they're being used

against cities. They've been used

against Zaporosia, against Harker,

against Kiev itself, against Sunumi,

against all sorts of places. So, we're

starting to see an air campaign evolve

which is closer to the kind of air

campaign that the Americans do when they

carry out offensives. In other words,

uh, an air campaign attacking Ukrainian

logistics, Ukraine, Ukrainian command

centers, all intended to assist the

Russian army to continue its advance.

Now, what have the Russians been doing

over the last couple of weeks? It's

again quite interesting because they

haven't conducted big missile strikes

and they haven't strike at Kiev. They

have been attacking what you could call

Ukrainian supply lines. They've been

hunting locomotives

um along the railway system. And they

have also been attacking gas filling

stations along the big arterial highways

that the Ukrainians use to send supplies

to some of their cities to Harv to

Sunumi to the Donbass to those sort of

places. And the idea is the the plan

appears to be destroyed the gas filling

stations. That means that trucks um

moving along these highways can't refill

with diesel and the result is that that

gradually chokes off logistics to those

cities. I think this is a very very

early stage of that campaign. It's not

spectacular. Perhaps we'll see it build

up. We'll see what happens.

>> Why was this not done earlier like in

the conflict?

>> I'll tell you why. I think that the um

problem with it was that the Russians

didn't have the weapons to do this. They

they needed many more drones because

most of these attacks on the gas filling

stations are being done with drones,

getan drones. So, they needed many many

more drones to do this. Perhaps now

they're starting to get those. And um

they probably also needed to refine and

develop the drones as well. So, I said

that there's some evidence that the

Russian um equivalent of the Starling

system is being used. It looks as if

some of the Giran drones now have

optical guidance. In other words,

they're controlled by ground controllers

in Russia. And it looks as if some of

these optically guided drones have been

used to attack gas filling stations. Uh

previously um drones launched by the

Russians basically went you know on

fixed trajectories,

gas filling stations are relatively

small facilities. Um you needed perhaps

a little bit more precision with the

drones and maybe the optical guidance

provides it.

>> What is Ukraine doing on their side?

They're continuing to launch drones.

Yeah, they're containing on a daily

>> and they are they they are launching

missiles. They claim the flamingo

missiles they claim and uh it seems as

if Russia is knocking down those

missiles for the most part.

>> Yes.

>> But a couple of them did get through and

hit um

>> hit an artillery facility in Bulgar.

Absolutely. A couple of days ago. The

Titan Titan facility. Yeah. a a a huge

facility by the way and a very historic

one and very very important uh part of

the Russian military-industrial complex.

Now again these strikes will of course a

certain degree of disruption with the

missiles. They won't have stopped

production entirely and undoubtedly the

factories the factory in question will

be back in production fairly quickly.

But um what usually happens with missile

strikes, Ukrainian missile strikes, with

any type of missile is that there's a

period of a few weeks uh that the

Ukrainians launch the missiles.

The Russians then find out more about

how the missiles work, what their flight

profile is. the air defense system then

gets adapts itself to shooting them down

and the effectiveness of the missiles

declines and certainly I think that's

going to be true with the flamingo

system in fact I think it largely is

already do true with the flamingo system

it was previously true with the with the

storm shadow and the um attacks missiles

that the United States supplied to

Ukraine

back in 2024.

And um I think

the weapon, the missile that the

Russians probably are most concerned

about is neither of these, you know, the

Flamingo or the Storm Shadow anymore.

There's some reports that the Americans

have provided a smaller, lighter cruise

missile called the Dirty Dagger. Um and

um that is a completely new system and I

suspect the Russian air defense system

is going to have to adapt um over the

next couple of weeks to countering that

missile if it is indeed being used um at

all as some people on the Russian side

are suggesting. Anyway, we'll have to

get more information about this. The

Ukrainians have conducted very big drone

attacks on Russia also over you know

pre204 Russia over the last few days

about the last week. So far the Russian

air defense system seems to be quite

successful in shooting down most of the

drones. I mean attempts to reach Moscow

have been mostly unsuccessful and other

big Russian cities. But we are always in

a game here. The drones, the people who

build the drones in Europe, in the

United States, see what the Russians are

doing in terms of air defense. They then

adapt the drones. The the Russians then

catch up. This goes on all the time. For

the moment, the Ukrainian drone attacks

have not been very effective on pre204

Russia. Ukrainian drone attacks on

Crimea and Zaporosia

and southern Donets region have been

more effective because the distance the

drones

have to cover is much shorter and the

drones come with bigger warheads. But

even there, I'm sort of getting the

sense that it's not quite as intense as

it was maybe 10 days ago. But that's

just my own impression.

>> Well, I mean, Russia, the the Kremlin

has admitted that uh that these drones

are causing a problem and they are

having to to import oil.

>> Well, that's an interesting that is an

interesting question because because

>> they're hitting the refineries. I mean,

>> so so Russia continues to export. Yes.

>> And then the oil that they export gets

refined in in India for example.

>> Yes.

>> But as far as refining domestically.

>> Yes.

>> For the domestic market they they seem

to to have problems.

>> Right. Well, can I just explain that

because this is in fact a long-standing

thing. Um Russia has lot has refineries

that produce diesel oil and um diesel

oil is never in short supply in Russia.

Russia produces about twice as much

diesel oil as it needs and there is no

shortage of it with gasoline.

Um, Russia actually

um has far fewer refineries that produce

gasoline

and usually in the summer months there

are typically always shortages of

gasoline in Russia and Russia tends to

import gasoline from various places from

Kazakhstan from Bellarus and even India

and to some extent India too and this is

a product of the Soviet era because most

of the gasoline refineries were located

in other places in Bellarus for example

in Kazakhstan not in Russia itself. So

it is not unusual for the Russians to

import gasoline. Um it it's a little bit

like the United States which also

imports oil um um he um heavier oil in

order to produce um aviation fuel and

gasoline from its own refineries even

though the United States produces oil as

well. So this is not quite as new or as

dramatic as people say. Now, the Russian

deputy prime minister and head of the

energy complex

said that Russia might import some

gasoline, more gasoline than usual to

stabilize the market. And this is been

linked to the problems that we've seen

over the last weeks. The Russians say

that this is the Russian authorities say

that this is partly because of the

attacks on the refineries but mostly

because of panic buying of gasoline

which has taken place in a few

locations.

The interesting thing is that one of the

countries that one would expect to say

we are increasing exports of gasoline to

Russia um in order to make up for these

problems is Kazakhstan and they've just

come out and said that they've actually

received no orders or requests from

Russia for increased gasoline imports.

So I wonder whether this is again um a

you know something that the Russians are

saying again in order to calm the

situation on the internal gas elite

market.

Suffice to say the Russian economy

mostly works on diesel and there is no

shortage of it.

>> Okay. Uh the the uh Parliament in

Ukraine

>> approves the Pantheon of Heroes.

>> Uh slap in the face from uh from Alinski

to Poland. A slap in the face to uh

well to Russia to

to Israel to to the world. Really

Europe doesn't seem too bothered with

it. Europe isn't bothered by it. Britain

isn't bothered. I haven't seen a single

dis a single discussion of it in the

media here in London. Um the United

States the countries that I've mentioned

>> the countries that I mentioned have

officially issued condemnations of of

this actually. That's why I mentioned

that I mean officially

>> yes

>> they have posted condemnations of of

Elinski's

>> um glorification

>> of of these uh these individuals like

Bandaraa and and Melnik and and these

guys but they're going to create a

mausoleum Alexander

>> your thoughts

>> well he doesn't care he doesn't care if

he gets complaints from Israel and

Poland because he knows perfectly well

that the countries that really matter

for him the United States um Germany,

um Britain, France, they're just going

to go on giving him money and supplying

him with weapons because that is what

they do. They will look the other way

and they will pretend that this isn't

happening. Remember, was it a year ago,

two years ago that we had a person turn

up in the Canadian Parliament and he

served in the German military? Exactly.

and uh there was you know an outcry

about it a brief outcry in it about it

in Canada and nobody cared in the end

nothing changed Canada continued his

policy so Zalinski has completely

committed himself to this and it's it

makes political sense for him to do this

because it shores up his support with

the people that ultimately I think he

feels he needs to rely upon within

Ukraine itself which is of course the

ultraists and the ultra nationalist

brigades which ultimately are his

guarantee of retaining power. So as I

said it makes total sense for him. The

fact that the polls don't like it or at

least some polls don't like it. Uh

Navroski the president doesn't like it.

Kashinski the previous prime minister

doesn't like it. Tusk doesn't seem to be

especially bothered. He pretends that he

is he is, but he only says that because

he has to because many people in Poland

are very upset about it. But Zilinski

doesn't care. In fact, the fact that he

gets all this criticism from Poland and

Israel and of course Russia, of course,

he could argue, well, he probably thinks

is better for him, better that he seems

to be standing up for these people and

for the memory of these people within

Ukraine than uh and the criticism of it

um simply confirms

that the ultraist

con constituency that he wants to win

over, that he is with them, that he's

for them, that he's their champion.

>> Uh, what's happening with Bellerus?

>> Well, this is an interesting

>> He walked it back with some dumb excuse,

Zalinski, he chickened out. He he walked

it back with some dumb excuse that his

intel is telling him that Bellarus is

dismantling the uh the repeaters

>> and the radars and stuff like that. Then

then Cerski comes out a day later and

says uh no Bellarus is not dismantling

anything. I mean he made Allet he made

Zilinski look like a complete clown.

>> Well indeed and and here perhaps that's

the more interesting story. First of all

let's talk about Bellerus. Uh Belleris

Lashanka had a two-day meeting that

lasted for two days with Putin. We're

not being told very much about it, but

presumably they discuss military

cooperation

um in light of the threats that have

been coming from Zalinski. And I mean,

you can't completely ignore the threats

coming from Zalinski. We've seen that

he's prepared to conduct attacks in

various places. The Bellarusan army is

quite small. Um if Ukraine were to

attack Belleris, um it would need help

from Russia. So probably they talked all

about that. Lucashanka by the way then

went on to China where he's met Cinping

and he's had further discussions with

China and it looks as if he's going to

get some economic investment, some

economic help from China as well. So

there's all that going on. But perhaps

the more interesting story for me is

that Syski is going off message. He's

saying that, you know, um firstly he

said there's no actual immediate threat

from Bellarus, completely contradicting

what Zilinski said because Zilinski was

at one time talking about uh Bellerus

conducting joining the war, conducting

attacks on Kiev. Syski says that isn't

true. He then says that the repeaters in

Bellerus contradicting Zilinski

completely is still functioning as you

said making um making Zalinski look like

a fool. Then he says the situation isn't

really good at all on the front lines.

We're desperately short of men. Um the

situation is very bad. And now he's

saying there's a real possibility that

the Russians are going to march into

Brians, sorry, from Brians region into

Chenigov and might be threatening Kiev

again. Not things I suspect that Yen

Zalinski wants to hear. And the question

is why? Um on at on one level um the

military situation on the front lines is

not going well for Ukraine. I mean you

know they're losing Slavans. Well I

think they lost sorry Constantino.

They've lost Leman or close to doing so.

There's Russian advances on Sunumi in

Zaporoi all sorts of places. But I

suspect that one of the other things is

that Zerki has seen reports that

Zalinski told Richard Blumen, the US

senator, a few weeks ago, about two

weeks ago, that he's going to sack Sirki

very soon and is going to make Budanov

commander of Ukraine's military. And I

think Syski is obviously unhappy with

that. He's been very loyal to Zalinski

up to now. And now, as I said, he's um

hitting back at Zalinski in whatever way

he can.

>> All right. Okay. We will uh end the

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