Hey guys, it's me E Gaming here. Runes

of Elder has been crazy so far. One

month in Valley and we are already at

almost 6,000 divines for a mirror.

Exalted is basically worthless nowadays.

But out of all of them, there's a

runaway winner. And what if I told you

we could have actually predicted all of

this trend before even the league

started if we did a little bit of

analysis? And that's what this video is

for. I always like to do these videos

about one month in as it showcases a lot

of trends that you would learn and take

away into future leagues to come as

well. So let's start things first off

very simply. I have a very nice colorful

chart and apologies if you are color

blind. I will do my best to narrate. So

even if you close your eyes or color

blind, you will still be able to get a

lot out of this video as well analysis

for your sake. So this is just a chart

of basically plotting several

significant currencies um on the same

chart and on the y-axis over here is

basically a normalized rate. So instead

of saying like oh one divine is 6,000 um

or one mirror is 6,000 divines I look at

the start date in this case on the 1st

of July and every date after is

basically a percentage change to this

reference point. So at this point here

at the current reference date, mirror of

Kandra is 14 times more expensive than

it was on 1st of July relative to

divines. So just a simple way to read

this chart. If it flew over your head,

don't worry. Simply go up currency good,

go down currency bad. The bottom line

here is exalted being almost worthless

which is bad. And the top line here is

mirror of Kandra which is the

outperformer. And this is generally the

case for majority of the leagues. Mirror

has always been the one that does the

best. So the title of the video, the

that is the point of why you probably

clicked in, but um there's more to come.

Chaos Ops is the outlier of this league.

There are many leagues with different

outliers here and there. And the special

one this week is Chaos Ops. Now doesn't

mean that we know the outlier. It's it's

very useful. The more important part of

looking at these charts is actually the

analysis that runs beneath. Now first

and foremost some of you will realize as

you're looking at these charts up down

up down the charts different colors most

importantly why is there a reference

point on the 1 of July but I'm EOD is

not taking the first few days for those

of you who don't know and haven't

followed this channel in like since we

first started in 0.1 um we have noticed

trends and we always do league

comparisons and analysis of every league

so we are kind of like used to the

trends but for a newer person maybe you

just joined or joined recently as Well,

the first few days of the league is the

most hectic and is the worst point to

actually like draw reference from.

Firstly, some items like the mirror of

Kandra only comes out like several days

later cuz RNG get lucky to get the

mirror and actually a meaningful supply.

And also at the same time, not everyone

unlocks the currency exchange on the

exact first day. Some of us, we chill a

little bit. We only go to the currency

exchange on the second day. That is the

important thing as well. And on a trade

site, if you do it manually, it flies

under the radar because it's like over

the counter rather than through a

exchange where data is being tracked. So

that's why I take usually a couple of

days after leak start for those of you

who are wondering. The first few days is

usually very random. And you can see a

lot of the currencies that open up

relative to divines usually depreciate

in terms of with respect to divines in

the early part. So that is something we

know once we set a reference date in

this case like the 1 of July divine ops

start to become um a good benchmark of

inflation for the other currencies as

well. So some interesting things before

I dwell deeper as well just to talk

about this league since we are in this

league I wanted to remain like relevant

to us right now and then I will share

with you some things that are very very

important and probably the more

important part of this video actually

but still nonetheless this league

interesting to note fracturing ops which

is this line over here the um sorry the

the fourth the second from the bottom

rather fracturing ops in this case

versus chaos ops if you notice like this

line here as well as this blueish line

here. They tend to go similar in terms

of trajectory. It might not be the case

where it is super high as well. It goes

up a lot, but generally fracturing ops

and chaos ops go in tandem with each

other. The reason for this is if you

think about how you would use fracturing

orbs, you usually fracturing snipe a

nice line like maybe um projectile

skills plus five on your weapon, bow,

additional arrow, spell skills or a very

high spirit line on whatever and then

you will chaos spam to find the second

line as well. So usually that's why

these two move in tandem. Um, and the

reason why Chaos Ops is outperforming so

significantly is because in this current

leak of Runes of Elder, they removed the

terministic crafting uh by only allowing

one crafted modifier. So in a line of

like six items total, you can now

meaningfully maybe get four. One crafted

modifier, one fractured, one chaos spam,

and one desecrated. The last two lines

become very very random. And depending

on your luck as well, certain items

maybe you can get five lines guaranteed.

But because of this, your chaos spam is

becoming so much more important. And

it's really a waste because you spend

maybe like 100 chaos, 200 chaos to get

one instance of line, which might not

even be like tier one. So that's why

it's very very heavy in terms of chaos

op usage. There are a lot of other

factors. Firstly, of course, divine ops

this are 10%ish more common based on

what we've heard from the developers and

some notes communities saying so that

definitely attributed to a bit of the

push upwards for the other currencies in

general because divine ops are a little

bit more easy to obtain. So that is why

we're seeing a chaos op push. Other than

that uh for the other currencies most

stuff generally appreciates against

divine ops especially towards the middle

league which we are currently now in. I

would say this is a midleague

environment smack right in the middle

and you would see most of the crafting

stuff like your fracturing ops, your

omen of wittlings which is this line

here which is still doing very very well

as well as the omen of light. All of

these are all appreciating relative to

divines which is very very typical for a

normal league. The reason for this is

crafted modifiers a lot less. You only

can have one. So you will need to

desecrate. You will need to whittle to

find your fifth line. Very expensive.

But all of the crafting stuff are very

important. Exalted ops of course are

plenty right now. And probably we will

have gotten some good stuff already that

we don't need to like exalt spam. We

probably will think of even if we are

spamming finding good lines, we'll be

using perfect exalt and so on and so

forth. The only stuff that I personally

use exalted for maybe it's just my way

stones. I don't know about you, but this

might be reflecting why uh exalted OP is

so so bad. Uh which is typically the

case, just maybe a little bit more

exaggerated for this leak. But knowing

how it forms is one thing. The more

important part rather is looking at

trends beyond the leak. um based on

plotting the runes of Alder to other

previous leagues. We have all these data

cuz for those of you who have seen our

previous videos, I manually do like all

the different Excel spreadsheets of like

storing the data analysis that we have

been doing for like the past few

leagues. Um but really once you plot the

chaos ops to the rest of the league, you

can really tell how outlying this is

based on trends. And it's very very

difficult to predict generally, but I

have some insights for you that I think

you will take for a really really long

time when it goes live and you will

outperform a lot of the other people who

don't know um this analysis as well. Uh

and of course, if you're finding value

in this video so far, you like our

marketbased approach. I always think

like getting a lot of mirrors, it's not

just getting the best item, flipping it

1,000 divine per hour kind of clickbait,

but at the same time, you need to

fundamentally understand economics of

Path of Exile 2. and it's quite

difficult to do. So if you like these

kind of content, do subscribe to the

channel for these kind of videos. At the

same time, if you want to support our

work in diving deeper because this

definitely takes a lot of time, consider

just joining as a member of channel. You

get all these resources on discord um

like market updates on a daily basis on

discord fed to you as well and a lot of

other things available for members from

just a dollar a day to support the

channel. It'll really really go a long

way. But um that aside, if you notice

here, Runes of Elder is the top line

here. And of course, it's not all the

way because it's only been barely a

month. That's why we're around the

30-day reference point since the

reference point. But if you compare to

the previous leagues here, like Dawn of

Han, we have Rise of Abyssal, the first

league, and as well as um your Fate of

the Vow, Chaos Orb is significantly

rallying harder than everything else.

Using the similar normalized chart, we

can see that it's almost nine times its

basically reference date value like 30

days ago, which is crazy. Normally for

other categories, they only will be like

maybe three times and that's really

good. Some of them remain in line with

divine op prices. For example, fate of

the vow roughly similar to divine ops in

terms of valuation. Uh abyssal league

also relatively uh similar. But the

thing about this is why is this league

so special and can we draw any

inferences from other leagues as well.

So the thing is if you notice in the

previous five leagues the only league

that has meaningfully outperform divine

ops chaos op meaningfully outperformed

divine ops is this pink line over here.

The rest of them are roughly around like

one to 1.5 which is I would I would for

the sake of um um compreh like making

easier to analyze 1.5 is more or less

the same um even though it is a 50% over

the period of 60 days relative to divine

ops but divine chaos relatively

consistent for the most part for these

other leagues um with standard being the

worst depreciated the most to to divine

but that's a bit of outliers the first

league so a lot of lack of information

as Well, but the league that is in

comparison is Dawn of the Hunt. Dawn of

the Hunt was the first league that we

had fracturing ops being introduced.

Now, that's where our contextual

knowledge of playing the past leagues

come into handy because we were able to

provide you a lot of these information

off the on the flat off the fly um to

get you going as well. Because

fracturing ops are just introduced in

the hunt, we didn't have a lot of

desecration mechanics and all the other

stuff yet. And how people got mirror

tier gear basically is fracture chaos

spam and pretty much just find the good

lines and then slowly work your way to

mirror tier. So there was a lot of churn

in the market a lot of wasted craft a

lot of good crafts which is very similar

to what we are seeing now in the runes

of elder kind of market. So rewinding,

once we knew that there were only one

crafted modifiers to craft mirror tier

gear, we will anticipate that we will

have to be doing a lot of chaos spamming

to at least guarantee the second line,

which is actually what we are seeing

right now. So chaos here spiked up very

very fast. Most people kind of felt that

chaos was very important already because

of this to craft good gear. um people

and don't forget that the hunt league

was second was like the second league of

PoE2 or the first league second um first

new league second patch ah you know what

I mean 0.2 to um for the runes of Alder

people already have all the data and

watched our channel and all understand

the market and even as crafters without

knowing economics you would feel that in

order to get good lines you needed to

chaos spam somewhat which is something

that propelled chaos out value very

early on within the first 10 days

already it went to a higher demand so

it's we could see that the player base

is much more educated as well so these

two uh markets do have very very similar

trends because of how crafting is being

done. That is why chaos ops are driven

so highly and it's not something

abnormal. It's actually very

rationalized as well. Now if we go one

step further and I plot this on a

logarithmic chart now so instead of

caring about percentage changes I am

more concerned on this chart plotting it

to directional movements. we start to

really get the trend much clearer. And

of course, all of this is all our own

proprietary analysis as well that I

spent hours and hours digging. Um, if

you appreciate it, just give me a like

on this video and a comment of what

you're learning so far. It really really

would motivate me to create more of

these content for you guys, too. So, if

you see something like this, the the

dotted line basically refers to um the

previous league of a hunt 0.2 two and

the bolded line here the the solid line

is the runes league that we are

currently in. Now ignore the bottom two

lines first. Look at the top two pink

lines. Um in this case you can see that

apart from a spike within the first 10

days which is what we mentioned first 10

days maybe because of education people

already kind of knew people knew the

crafting mechanics knew how to get

around mapping much better. um it spiked

up because the economy is is shifted

leftwards a little bit more as more

people are already very experienced and

then it really follows a very similar

trend. So what I'm looking here is not

the how high each chart the graph is but

the general trend line of each of them.

If you notice the spacing between the

two leaks over here, the dotted line and

the solid line after the 10day, the

spacing relatively remained pretty

consistent. Considering the fact that

this is two completely separate leaks

without any way of talking to each

other, the market repeats itself in

terms of history. Apart from the first

10 days, it's really going line in line

and it remains the same or more or less

consistent throughout the entirety of

the league in terms of trends. Of

course, this is a logarithmic chart.

Doesn't mean it's going to stay

consistent. It's just showing you they

do really really move in line when

you're thinking about directional

movements of the two currencies. Divine

ops relative to chaos ops. Now, don't

get me mistaken. The blue lines here are

not divines plotted to fracturing ops.

But we talked about how fracturing ops

and chaos ops has have a correlation to

each other. In this case, all of them

have the same chaos ops um reliveness.

And here I just want to show you that

instead of looking at the chart in trend

um by plotting a logarithmic chart you

can see apart from the first 10 days of

some very very large volatility as well

for the most part if you are close to

the horizon you're moving close to like

horizon means that the correlation is

very very close. When correlation is

very very close, what it implies to me

is that you are more or less using both

items handinhand. In this case, the

fracturing ops and chaos ops are really

being used very handinhand, which does

tell us that apart from fracturing

chaos, fracturing chaos, people

generally might not be using chaos ops

outside of this in large quantities.

Even Omen of Wling, it would probably be

in smaller quantities relative to like

the hundreds and hundreds of chaos that

people spam to snipe like a tier one

line to make mirror tier crafting. And

this is usually the case of a mid-league

environment. So very very useful

analysis. And had we known basically

that there were trend lines in this

similarities, we would be able to

predict how to have invested in the very

early part of the league. uh even if

after the first 10 days you didn't know

you would know certain currencies

outperform just based on this logic as

well. So technically speaking even if we

didn't have money to invest in a mirror

if you had invested in a chaos ops you

would practically be in line almost all

the way until maybe last week where

mirror started to significantly

outperform. But even still, you will

have been a lot better off holding a

chaos op relative to divine ops in this

particular league environment given how

outstanding it has been. Um, and if you

found this video insightful so far, you

like the insights that we have shared,

do like and leave us a nice comment. Let

me know what else that you learned from

this video as well which you never

really thought of. I find it very

insightful looking at this data and I'll

continuously share with you guys. Again,

if you want this information being fed

to your feet, we have a members Discord

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Subscribe, join as a member, and it

really supports the channel to keep us

doing more. Thank you guys again so much

for watching this video. I appreciate

you and your attention, and see you guys

in the next one.