Well, I'm sorry. Pope the Pope shouldn't

talk about matters of theology. Isn't

that exactly who should be discussing

it?

>> I think he's torpedoing his 2028 chances

by picking a fight.

>> Hi everyone, this is Pivot from New York

Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast

Network. I'm Cara Swisser.

>> And I'm Scott Galloway.

>> How's it going Scott?

>> Just so well. Cara,

>> let's do a rundown of the latest with

Iran. President Trump says the war is

very close to over again. As we tape

this, Iranian officials and Pakistan's

military chief are set to meet in Thran

to discuss messages exchanged by Iran

and the US. Meanwhile, Iran's military

has threatened shipping in the Red Sea

if the US continues its blockade of

Iranian ports.

>> Let me just piss off everybody. I think

that the US threatening to fully block

the state of Hormones is the right move

right now. many people do

>> because uh freedom of navigation for the

last 150 years has been a key component

of the global economy. It's a generally

accepted principle that the strait of

Malika, the straits of Singapore, if

Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore

decide one day to exert their

geopolitical power and get tens of

billions of dollars that they could

block the straight. Egypt could block uh

the Suez Canal. And so if there isn't a

multilateral force that keeps this thing

open, it just sets a terrible precedent.

Now, how we got here, I think a lot of

people have very valid arguments around,

well, we broke and now we're asking the

world to fix it. But I think it's

actually a good strategy to say, okay,

if you want the straits blocked, we're

going to make them block for everyone,

including all entry into Iranian ports,

which I think is the right move. Um,

what is really unusual about all of

this, and I know we're going to get to

this, is that the markets are up.

>> Yeah. um which is just it it fully seems

like the markets have totally

>> dislocated the the S&P is up 2.8% 8% at

the time of this taping just they are

going up because they feel that there'll

be some some opening of the hormuz

correct I mean or as Scott Bessing call

it the straight of vermouth but go ahead

>> there's a few things happening one

I' I've said this for a while I think

the NASDAQ and the Dow are the two most

damaging metrics in the world because

they give people a false sense of how of

the prosperity and well-being of the

world and the reality is America is

energy independent and so there's

actually some stocks that are up 20 to

40% in the oil sector. So it's not a

defense risk to us. There is the markets

seem to be saying that the war will at

some point be resolved sooner rather

than later and that the oil flow through

hormos will begin again. You also have

this unusual situation where in the last

three major conflicts the US was

involved in or three exogenous shocks,

the Gulf War, the Iraq war and COVID,

what ended up happening was the markets

were way down and initially in March at

the outset of the war, the markets

declined 10%. But in each instance,

there's been a ripback and the following

year the stocks are up. So people have

been buying the dip and basically what's

happened now is people buy the dip

sooner and the markets recover based on

a historical pattern of the market

surging.

>> There's still a mess there mess created

by Trump that was unnecessary, right?

This the way he's doing the way he's

conducted.

>> Well, that that's a political statement

and I I you can agree or not agree. I'm

just talking about what the markets the

markets have totally disassociated. And

I think, you know, Stephanie Rule

actually had a really good take on this

uh this week where she was talking about

why they're like this and they just feel

they're just trading, that's what she

said, the ups and downs. They don't care

about anything else. They just have

watched the historical um behavior

around this.

>> But also, look at who look who this is

hurting.

Gas is up. Gas prices are, you know,

Brent crude is up. You know, the

European benchmark's up 32%. The price

of gasoline in America is up 36%. Brent

oil futures are up 31%.

But let's be honest, who does this hurt?

It hurts the lower half of oil prices

does don't really impact me, Cara. And

and the reality is 10% of the top decile

of American citizens now are now

responsible for 50% of consumer

spending.

>> They own 90% of the stocks. Do they care

that gas is at six bucks? I mean, it's

an interesting media headline, but the

reality is the stock market is now a

proxy for companies that are mostly

invested in technology and some oil

companies. You could argue some consumer

companies will get hurt because

consumers will stop will spend less, but

wealthy people. I'm going to one of the

thing I interviewed Jose Andre this week

um at the um sem and he was talking

about fertilizer prices and how people

you know people across the world eat

hand-to-mouth and and he was noting that

he said you and I you know it'll be

irritating to pay four5 $6 at the gas

station um and it will it will hurt us

but not in the way it hurts people

around the world and and also uh

fertilizer prices um for for farmers in

the Midwest and added to the tariffs

with Canada. The United States primarily

imports fertilizer from Canada and I

think Russia. Anyway, we we have an

issue with everybody else and so the

stock market doesn't reflect people's

lived experiences. Right. That's that's

exactly right.

>> So, one of the things that um that House

Democrats are doing and you told them to

act and I don't know if you think this

is a thing to do, but they just filed

six articles of impeachment against

defense secretary Pete Hegest. I think

they're getting ready as Rahm Emanuel

has start started to make some moves

high crimes and misdemeanors related to

Iran. And by the way, Heg's death, I

must note, he read a fake Bible quote

from Pulp Fiction during a prayer

service at the Pentagon on Wednesday.

>> It's beyond political. It's now economic

for most people. You know, it doesn't

get missed in all this, but it has a

real impact, including this beef with

the Pope. Um, let's listen to a clip.

Now, JD Vance has entered the

conversation. But I think that it's

important in the same way that it's

important for the vice president of the

United States to be careful when I talk

about matters of public policy. I think

it's very very important for the pope to

be careful when he talks about matters

of theology.

>> Yeah. Peace is a really big thing in

Catholicism.

>> Well, I'm sorry. Pope the Pope shouldn't

talk about matters of theology. Be

careful.

>> Isn't that exactly who he should be?

>> He should be careful. Even though he's a

very well- reggarded theologian, but JD

Vance has some words for him. He's I

think he's torpedoing his 2028 chances

by picking a fight. I just don't

understand.

>> He is trading off. He's decided still

that he needs to have such to be such an

acolyte. This is a politically stupid

move for him

>> because evangelicals are actually swing

voters. They were sort of a toss up with

Biden and then they they went hard for

Trump. If he doesn't get evangelicals,

he's not going to be the nominee. and

he's clearly decided that it makes more

sense. I mean, quite I don't get this at

all because if he were to come out and

say those comments, while I respect what

Trump said, I feel like the Pope's

comments were illtimed. I still have an

issue and I will not be critical. Or if

he came out slightly against Trump,

Trump might be furious at him. Trump's

not going to dump his VP at this point.

And JD Vance needs evangelicals. I mean,

this was just a really stupid thing. And

also uh uh just because I think it's

important to be as offensive as possible

and convince people that I am not in

fact running for president. You know how

>> a little boy saved a priest's life?

>> Oh, no, no, no. We're not doing that.

We're not doing We're not

>> Okay, never mind. I'm sorry. I won't do

it. I respect you. I got a picture

behind me. Never mind. Let's move on.

>> Um

>> he found a lump on his scrotum. He found

a lump on his scrotum. Cop pulls over

two priests and says, "We're looking for

two child molesters." and the priests

look at each other and then look to the

cop and say, "We'll do it."

>> Oh my god. Okay, we're not insulting the

Catholic Church right now because Trump

is doing so. You know, I know it's a

joke about Pete Haggsth quoting from

Pulp Fiction. He probably did an AI

search and thought it was that, right?

That's my guess. That's that's probably

what happened to one of his dumb minions

added it in. It's a fake Bible. These

people are so performatively religious

is the my issue. Like they don't even

they don't even read the Bible. they

just quote from pulp fiction because

they don't know the difference. And if

you were actually someone who's really

uh religious, you do know the

difference. And with the vice president,

he just literally let me just take one

more point. Uh the pope is an American

citizen. He should be able to say when

he wants, by the way, he I I don't he

remains an I assume he remains an

American citizen. Um just

>> like being a pope. Um but he doesn't

lose those first amendment rights.

>> Very impressive guy.

>> But he's talking about peace. He's

talking about tyrants. He's talking

about everything Jesus talked about.

>> He's very

>> everything.

>> Yeah.

>> And solidifying his

>> but more importantly, what do what do

you get when 500 Jewish mothers convert

to Catholicism? Tara,

>> you get critical mass.

>> Get it? Critical mass. I think that's

pretty good.

>> We're going to move on. This is really

disastrous. This fight with the Pope.

The Pope is going to win, kids.

>> Oh yeah. No, don't go up against El

Papa. Especially this papa. He's very

good.

>> Oh man, I even want to go in the church.

That's how good papa it is. I'm like,

I'm going back.

>> You're going to go to one of those crazy

unarian churches with some lady with

blue hair.

>> Yeah. No, I don't like unarian cuz I

>> baptizing

bapti baptizing support or rescue dogs.

You'll let me.

>> No, I won't. I don't like those. I

actually Megan

>> or go to Glide next time in San

Francisco.

>> I love Glide. It's a wonderful church.

It's a wonderful church. I don't like

Unarian churches. My my ex-wife took me

to when we were married and I was like,

do they stand for anything? Like for

some reason the Catholic in me got going

and I was like

>> they're too politically correct.

>> They were like I was like it was like

everybody everything. They believed

everything and I was and I listen I have

a lot of respect for all all religions.

But I got I I had to leave. I was really

>> there there's your land acknowledgement.

I don't I believe some religions are

worse than others. To say that I just

want to I just I got interrupted by my

>> um

uh poorly poorly timed jokes. I just

want to go back to the notion of trying

to do an impeachment or begin

impeachment proceedings of Hexath. I

think that's stupid. I don't think you I

think if we've learned or one thing we

should have learned as Democrats

is that uh unless you have the votes

lined up, you don't do it. It comes

across

signal what they're going to do. Isn't

that kind of signaling what they're

going to do?

>> No, this is in my view, this is what

they do. an an impeachment nostalgia

tour the Democrats don't need. Again, it

at this point it wouldn't work. I'm all

for impeaching the president at this

point and the Secretary of Defense. You

don't do it until you know the votes are

locked. You announce it and then start

the vote the next day. Otherwise, it's

just performative and pisses off the

other side and is a waste of time. This

is what you do. You announce legitimate

legal action and coordination with a

state AG to go after certain individuals

who have committed actual crimes and

there's a lot of them. in this

administration. This is performative.

It's political and we're gonna again

look stupid.

>> All right, back to All right. The Demat

still suck according to you. Sorry. Um,

but what what do you think about the POW

situation? Because this seems like

another self own here. Tillis is not I

trust me, Tillis is not backing down.

Like just FYI. Anyway, um I'm going to

move on because the chaos follows Trump

wherever he goes. He's back to his

Jerome Powell fight. He's like an old

man who forgot he was fighting with

someone and then remembered. He said if

he doesn't uh step down next month, he's

going to fire him. Like even though he

has more time on the board and also says

the DOJ probe of Po Powell and the Fed

should continue. Powell's Fed chair term

officially ends on May 15th. His term as

Fed governor is up in 2028. Usually they

leave when they when they finish their

chair, but he doesn't have to. And he

plans to stay on as acting chair until

his successor Kevin Walsh is confirmed.

Pal says that's what the law calls for.

Wash's confirmation is scheduled for

next week, but Senator Tom Tillis, who I

interviewed, as said, confirmed again.

He won't confirm him until the DOJ probe

is resolved. All this from the

prosecutors from the US Attorney Janine

Piro's office showed up at the fed this

week trying to get a tour of the

building's renovations got turned away.

She's trying hard to become attorney

general, FYI. Um, he can't. If he fires

Trump Fowl, he's in big trouble. He's

going to taco this one, right? It's

three people in a room with with with

Claude and Chachi PT and every time the

temperature and association with Epstein

gets a bunch between the link between

Trump and Epstein and its presence in

the media gets above a certain

temperature they say throw something out

and distract everybody.

>> And this is just another one because I

don't even think it legally has the

right to remove Pal from the board of

governors. So

his term doesn't end till January 2028.

>> So this is just again I believe he knows

and his people have said I mean there's

two things are going on. Either grandpa

just says [ __ ] as he's as he's thinking

it and maybe that's true or if you give

him more credit than that it's another

attempt to distract from from Ebstein. I

don't want to say I feel bad for Kevin

Worsh, but his entire hearing is going

to be about Jerome Powell, not about

Kevin Walsh.

>> And what I've said before is that as

long as Powell is on the board of

governors, he's the de facto chair

because anything he says, 11 of the 12

governors are going to not,

>> which is why Trump wants him gone, which

is why Trump wants him removed.

>> That's exactly right. But he does not

have the power to do this. and you are

going to have several Republican

senators find their testicles and come

out in favor of Chairman Pal remaining

on the board of governors. It's it but I

think Trump I think Trump knows that and

just today said I need something to keep

Epstein out of the news. I'll go after

Pow or Pope fiction. Yeah.

>> Yeah. My favorite is my favorite is

they're going to start talk about

talking about Epstein to distract from

Iran.

>> They're not going to fire Powell.

They're not.

Okay, Scott, let's go on a quick break

and when we come back, Amazon makes a

big acquisition.

Support for this show comes from Quint.

If you're participating in a Time Warner

tradition of cleaning out your closet

this spring, you might want to consider

replacing some of those old clothes with

highquality pieces from Quint. Quint

makes stylish everyday clothing using

premium materials like 100% European

linen, organic cotton, and super soft

denim with styles starting around $50.

Their spring pieces are lightweight,

breathable, and effortless. The kind you

can throw on and instantly look put

together. And they work directly with

top factories, cutting out the cost of

the middleman. So, you're not paying for

a brand markup, just quality clothing. I

have just gotten a bunch of new Quint

pieces. I usually get soft pants and

comfortable things, but I just got a

cardigan. I got a pair of jeans, and

they're incredible. They're incredibly

soft and uh look great and actually look

more expensive than they cost me. They

also have a lot of seasonal colors and

prints for spring that'll make getting

dressed a breeze. Refresh your wardrobe

with Quint right now. Go to

quint.com/pivot

for free shipping and 365day returns.

Now available in Canada, too. Go to

qinc.com/pivot

for free shipping and 365day returns.

quint.com/pivot.

Support for this show comes from

MintMobile. We all like to have money.

It's what pays for the bills, lets us do

fun things, and feeds our families.

Unfortunately, big wireless companies

also like to have our money. So much so

that they come with all kinds of bogus

fees and free perks that actually cost

more in the long term. But MintMo says

they're a different kind of wireless

provider. Mint Mobile offers a premium

wireless phone plan for just $15 a

month. And all of their plans come with

high-speed 5G data and unlimited talk

and text. You don't need to bother

getting a new phone or number or enter

into some long-term contract. Just

activate online in minutes and start

saving immediately. That means no more

expensive monthly phone bill riddled

with unexpected fees. Get 3 months of

premium wireless service from mintmobile

for just 15 bucks a month. If you like

money, MintMobile is for you. Shop plans

at mintmobile.com/pivot.

That's mintmobile.com/pivot.

Upfront payment of $45 for 3 months. 5

GBTE plan required equivalent to $15 a

month. New customer offer for first

three months only, then full price plan

options available. Taxes and fees extra.

See Mint Mobile for details.

Amazon is acquiring a satellite

operator, Global Star, in a deal worth

around 11.5 billion as it tries to catch

up to SpaceX Starlink. Under the

agreement, Amazon gets global stars

existing satellites and infrastructure

which will operate alongside Amazon's

own uh network now called LEO as after

the Pope I guess. Uh Amazon says the

deal will enable it to build directto

device satellite system with a rollout

expected in 2028. FCC chairman Brandon

Carr says his agency is very open-minded

to the deal and the FCC is taking all

gas no brakes approach to expanding the

US space economy. he kind of has to talk

about this because obviously Amazon

isn't going away um with and they're

trying to solidify this network for

themselves to be the at least the number

two player here.

>> My big stock pick for 2025 was Alphabet.

We got that one right. My big tech stock

pick for 26 is Amazon. This is what I

think Amazon is going to do. They are

going to build a viable competitor to

Starlink using Kyper as a platform. And

this is another

>> it's called LEO

>> step in that they get I'm sorry project

LEO they bought basically they bought 24

satellites here

>> and it's never been profit profitable

but Amazon close up 3% and this is what

I think Amazon strategy is Amazon's

going to launch a phone and then they're

going to offer Amazon Prime Plus which

will offer you a phone and lightning

fast connectivity into your home.

They're going after AT&T, Verizon, and

Comcast and basically going to offer you

connectivity with Amazon Prime, and they

need the satellites to do this. So, why

would they buy a nonprofitable satellite

company? Again, the above 24 satellites.

They get spectrum, they get radio waves,

the wireless signals, uh, including

Wi-Fi, Travalon. The government owns

these and issues specific licenses for

them, but spectrum is auctioned off by

the FCC and extremely expensive. So,

they get that. They could do for B toC

again Amazon price they could sell Wi-Fi

to prime subscribers B2B they could sell

private wireless networks to serve its

warehouses delivery hubs robots drones

robots and drones need this connectivity

to communicate wirelessly constantly and

it's much easier if it's costefficient

if Amazon has its own network

>> yes

this is essentially a strong number two

>> this is

>> presumably

>> this is essentially what Amazon is it's

the strongest infrastructure company in

the world. It's an extension of their

investment in their logistics network.

And right now, Project LEO has 240

operational satellites. It plans to ramp

up its network by deploying 3,200 in

Earth's low orbit by 2029. Starlink has

over 10,000. This is definitely catchup,

but Amazon has 115 million homes to

offer this service consumers, right? So,

you have to go out and buy Starlink and

people do love it. I have to say, you

know, oddly enough, Jose Andre, who has

had beef has a huge beef with with Musk

over uh US aid saying he's killing

essentially saying he's killing people.

>> Um he said we used to critical to our

world central kitchen operations. And I

think he would like an alternative, but

he definitely said it's really a shame.

I wish that Elon was around and not this

other one. Um which is, you know, hugely

damaging to their efforts across the

world feeding people. Um but between

that fertilizer and that like the cuts

at USAD they're facing you know a huge

uphill battle against hunger across the

world. But one of the things that's

happening here is you get an all this is

what happened with Tesla. This is what

happened. There's going to be number

twos. Now will it have an impact on the

SpaceX IPO? I doubt it. I think it's

going to be like it's going to run.

Oddly enough, interestingly enough

Google is a big owner of it um of the

SpaceX IPO. they're going to make like

many commas of money um from this deal.

So that should that would that that'll

be an interesting thing because many

years ago Yahoo owned a big piece of

Google. I don't know if you remember in

the beginning and that's what saved them

for a while like having that investment

in in Google that they made um and now

in this case Google's going to make a

lot of money from these SpaceX. But I

don't think the SpaceX IPO will be

damaged in any way. Correct. from your

perspective?

>> No, it's it's arguably one of the

strongest brands in the world right now

and people are excited about it. It'll

go out wildly overpriced. I think it'll

get a slight bump. It'll be the biggest

IPO of of um 26. The best IPO of 26 will

be Anthropic, which will get out ahead

of Open AI because it has more momentum.

But it's going to be again

if you look at SpaceX

um

what I think 18 billion in revenue, 6

billion in profits. So when um it's

going to it's going out at 100 times

revenue, it's growing 24% a year. When

Google went public, it was growing 240%

a year and trading at 10 times revenues.

So SpaceX, incredible company, the most

overvalued IPO in history. Uh, the

answer is yes.

>> And I think it's great just insane.

There's another there's more satellite

efforts like this. There has to be at

least two or three. I mean, there's not

going to be more than that by the way

because the costs are so huge, but it's

good for having run for their money.

Speaking of OpenAI and Anthropic, OpenAI

is distancing itself from Microsoft and

coing up to Amazon, which is

interesting. In a memo sent to staff,

OpenAI's revenue chief, Denise Dresser

said that Microsoft partnership has

limited the company's ability to meet

enterprises where they are. No, no [ __ ]

On the other hand, Dresser said the

company's Amazon deal has generated

frankly staggering demand. Dresser also

used the memo to go after anthropic,

accusing the rival of building its

strategy on quote fear restriction and

the idea that a small group of elites

should control AI, which is interesting

to say. Obviously, they're throwing

they're trying to hurt Anthropic in the

race to an IPO. They're throwing

Microsoft under the bus. Speaking of

Anthropic news, the company has recently

received multiple offers from VCs to

invest at valuations as high as $800

billion. And Anthropic has briefed the

Trump administration about its new

Mythos model, which is not being

released to the public do, as we talked

about last week, due to its alleged

cyber security capabilities. Um,

interestingly, an an Bezos owned

Washington Post said that efforts by the

Pentagon to thwart anthropic are stupid,

which was interesting. This week,

they're fighting it out in court. I

suspect the Trump administration is

going to start dropping that soon

enough.

>> Anthropic has more momentum than any

company in the world right now. It's

gone I mean it's gone at the end of 2025

which wasn't that long ago its ARR was 9

billion. It's now 30 billion. It's more

than tripled its annual recurring

revenue in 4 months. And by the way Open

AI is 25 billion. So the little engine

that was, you know, kind of an

afterthought to open AI just 12, 18

months ago is now a bigger business than

Open AI. And this is the first time that

Anthropic has led on revenue and it's

growing faster. It's and not only that,

it's a better business because that

growth is almost exclusively

enterprisedriven, which is a better

business.

>> So what is OpenAI doing here by

releasing they released the memo? Let's

not pretend that this is what they were

doing. What what's the message? This has

become Coke versus Pepsi. And

>> yeah, I I think it feels desperate. I

don't I They're trying to

>> They're trying to weaponize the

government against them. They're trying

to [ __ ] post them. These guys hate each

other. It's It's the Hatfields versus uh

the McCoys. And Anthropic has 1,000

customers paying over $1 million a year.

That's up from just 500 in February. The

number of customers spending over a

million dollars a year has

>> So, they don't seem to care about the

Pentagon thing at all. You had thought

they might, but it looks like they

don't. Looks like they don't.

>> The the numbers here, let me give you

some more data. 80% of Anthropics

revenues come from business clients who

are quite frankly are just more reliable

and more and less margin sensitive than

consumers. Uh versus 40% at OpenAI. 70%

of every incremental dollar spent on AI

coming from the enterprise is going to

anthropic. They raised 30 billion in

their series G at a $380 billion

valuation, which is ridiculously low

compared to the $850 billion valuation

that OpenAI did, guaranteeing a 17%

return, which could crush previous

investors if they don't if they have to

go out lower than that. They they also

said

I mean the both companies are exploring

an IPO this year and Anthropic projects

uh positive free cash flow by 2027.

Open AI is said they're going to break

even in 2030. But the bottom line is

Dario Emodi is just showing himself to

be a much more competency.

>> Let me ask you a question. This focus on

>> consumer here's what I see. Open a

definitely focused on consumer and being

like Kleenex or Google, right? That was

what they were going for. The the one

that everyone thinks of chat GPT is AI,

right, for everybody essentially, not

Claude. Chat GPT is Kleenex, right? Or

CL or Google or whatever the the

representative of everything.

>> So they relied on the consumers then

they have a really they start Sam Alman

starts to get a very bad consumer

reputation. So he that like and up and

up to and including people attacking his

home, right, which is heinous.

They have relied on consumer

relationships which are very easy to

break right suddenly you become the bad

guy and I think that that's one of the

things but

>> bear hugging Amazon and pushing away

Microsoft what is that if you're in the

room what do you think the strategy is

>> the honest truth is I don't know my

guess is there's some ego involved here

and some dynamics behind the scenes that

I just don't understand but let me be

clear it's not easy to build a consumer

brand it can be very powerful I'm not

suggesting I'm biased because all my

businesses have always been B2B and the

and the one business I did B TOC red

envelope was just so much [ __ ] harder

that I found than doing building a B2B

business. Now what I think the dynamic

here is the following. The reason why

Anthropic is going to be worth more and

get to the IPO starting line faster than

OpenAI as an enterprise dominant

business as opposed to a consumer

business of open AI. It's not

necessarily that one is much better than

the other, but here's the difference in

terms of competitive dynamics.

You can get as a consumer a really

outstanding LLM and AI for free. If

you're a company, if you're Clorox

looking for a $3 million enterprisewide

LLM uh AI offering, there's no free

alternative.

So in some the substitutes on the

consumer level are just much greater

than the substitutes at an enterprise

level which says to me whoever dominates

enterprise has a just a much better

business. Also these with just with just

a duopoly if one is perceived as better

which right now Anthropic is perceived

as better in the enterprise enterprises

are much less consumer sensitive because

if they're going to implement technical

debt they don't care if it's 30% more

>> was it a mistake is it a mistake to then

say we we didn't get in the enterprise

fast enough due to Microsoft which may

in fact be the case and now we're going

to hug Amazon

>> that makes no [ __ ] sense

>> why do it piss why are they doing

Well, you're going to piss you're going

to piss off one of the most important,

measured, thoughtful people in text.

That just makes no sense. That's not

>> when you were in trouble.

>> Yeah. And it shows it shows that you're

not getting along with your you have

these fights behind the scenes. You

don't you don't say that publicly that

you don't get into a war with Microsoft.

>> But one of the things they have to do is

they have a problem with their image

because they're the face of AI. They're

the face of AI, right? Well, Daario

looks like a hero from a from a

marketing point of view at the very

least. And so that's I think the real

problem is Sam Alman represents AI which

everybody is hating on like young people

all the polls everybody has a problem

with it. And when the problem shows, you

look at someone like Sam Alman and not

Dario. You know, Daria is not getting

the kind of hatred that Alman is getting

now, which I think is a problem. But why

hug Amazon too?

>> Because Amazon is executing against

infrastructure like no one's business.

And if you want to, I mean, arguably

Amazon from an enterprise level is the

most discerning consumer in the world.

And Amazon is the best infrastructure

company in the world. I I so but I think

there's some ego here. I think someone

got pissed off at someone. But you don't

you don't get into a public tiff with

Microsoft. By the way, just in terms of

stocks, Microsoft as a multiple of free

cash flow is cheaper than it's ever

been. I think Microsoft's a really good

buy right now. But look, the Anthropic

has so much momentum right now and

OpenAI does not. Do you get this? Khi is

saying the odds of Sam Alman being

replaced as CEO are up to 27%.

I mean for the first time Sam Alman

being replaced by the end of the year is

a real possibility because OpenAI public

tiffs with Microsoft who was supposed to

be your partner in this throwing up

totally [ __ ] the bed in the

enterprise market all this negative PR

and press I mean and there's just no

getting around it. Anthropic is worth

more than open AAI right now. And so I I

think Sam I think they were smart to be

focused. They're going to do away with

that ridiculous [ __ ] nonsense from

IO. That that was the stupidest

acquisition of whatever it was. That's

going to be a

>> that's going to be a $6 billion rideoff.

>> They're smart to stay focused. But this

is this is a tale of two cities and one

city is skyrocketing and that's

anthropic and the other is burning up on

re-entry and that's um that's open AI

it's but the posturing is important

right so Alman is fighting with Musk on

on on that case which is going to be

full is going to trial it looks like

this case so that's going to bring

unnecessary

>> no matter what Elon fights you know

>> with a lot of swords so it doesn't he

he'll he'll and some blows even if he's

and make them look bad. He will even if

he looks he doesn't care cuz he's like

the villain. So it's fine if he makes

other people look like a villain. I mean

from a from a public perspective. Um

they're also um you know it's not just

Alman. It's like someone like Chris

Leane who I find very aggressive right

and this is a very aggressive group of

people that sounds like they're not

getting along internally. You sort of

feel rumbles of that. um you know the

mistakes of not embracing enterprise and

going full scale into popularity. Now I

agree they shouldn't be fighting with

Microsoft but they made their they made

the mistake and now they're blaming

their partner for that right ability to

meet enterprises where they are because

they're actually

>> they look like Microsoft competitors in

that in that space. So anyway,

>> but what's to be gained what's to be

gained by [ __ ] posting Microsoft in

public?

What do they get?

>> Just to say we we're serious about the

we're going to really compete in the

enterprise this now we're serious. I

don't know. I don't know. I just I don't

understand this memo whatsoever.

>> But what enterprise is going to hire

open AI because they've been critical of

Microsoft? I I don't I I absolutely

don't get it. This these people have

egos. Sachi Nadella doesn't need doesn't

need Sam. I mean Microsoft could write

off its investment in open AI. It quite

frankly the market has already done

that. The market has taken Microsoft's

stock down I don't know 20 or 25% in the

last six months. the the trouble in

Mudville has already been perceived by

the market with respect to Microsoft's

playing in traffic with open AI and that

their investment in open AI may not end

up being you know the the the the kicker

in the afterburner every got in

>> and a guy like

>> go ahead Amazon got in at better rates

essentially but go ahead

>> and a guy like Sachi Nadella doesn't

scare easily I I don't I don't I

absolutely don't understand who approved

this public spat on the and it says to

me that open AI I does not have a board

that that would say, "Oh, yeah, that's a

good idea. Let's get in a war with

Microsoft." There's ego here. Someone

got pissed off at something.

>> Anthrop going after anthropic as being

fear restriction idea this small is just

sort of so backward looking just to to

when you start attacking the number two.

There's something going on. Especially I

think they were trying to get reporters

interested in this run rate and you know

inflation of revenues which by the way

no one really cares about with these

companies at this point. They want to

know who the leader is going to be

anyway. Um I mean they should care but

they don't.

>> It's just a dump.

>> There's a general crucible rule

fundamental truth in branding and

marketing is that when you're the market

leader or you want to be perceived as

the market leader which I think open AI

would say we are the leader and we want

to be perceived as the market leader you

never reference the competition.

You don't you just never Visa was a

client of mine back in my brand strategy

days at Profit and I said why wouldn't

you talk about this versus Mastercard

and he goes we're the market leader we

never reference the competition. When

you reference the competition you're

immediately saying they're a competitor

and when you're the market leader what

you want to say is we have no Coke never

re Coke never referenced Pepsi. Coke

never did a taste test. Like we don't

even as far as we're concerned Pepsi

doesn't exist. We're [ __ ] Coca-Cola.

I I I used to do when they were talking

about competitors, I'm like who? I'd be

do things like like I'm sorry I didn't

see it. Like I would

on purpose.

>> Yeah. I don't the best I don't do that

Scott.

>> I'll try and draw this. Scott,

>> who's that? Who's that? What? I think

someone said he has a picture of me

>> behind him on his podcast. The the

personal learning here is the following

or what I finally come to peace with.

When people [ __ ] post you or criticize

you online,

>> the best revenge, hands down,

>> indifference, just indifference. You

gotten good on that.

>> Don't mention mad at certain people

attacking you. Get all

>> Well, I wasn't used to it. I used to be

this cute professor that everyone said

nice things about. And then when I got

big because of you,

>> people started actually looking at my

[ __ ] and saying, "This makes no sense."

>> Uh, and I would get upset.

>> Anyway, I'm fine now.

>> Then I discovered edibles. Anyway,

you've gotten much better about that, I

have to say. Getting off of Twitter,

which you did first, I will acknowledge.

I'm sorry for making that mistake last

week. Anyway, um, another interesting

story. We're going to go on a quick

break. When we come back, we'll talk

about a potential United American

Airlines merger. Seems unlikely, but

here we go. Support for this show comes

from Built. The roof over your head is

one of your biggest, if not the biggest

monthly expense. Whether it's rent or

mortgage, it's just one of those things

we all have to pay for. So, why not earn

something back while you do it? That's

exactly how Built made a name for

themselves. They started out by

rewarding members on their rent. Now, as

of 2026, Built members can also earn

points on mortgage payments, too,

wherever they live. Every housing

payment earns you points you can use

toward trips with top level partners

like United and Hyatt. Plus, you can use

them towards lift rides, Amazon.com

purchases, and so much more. Built

members can also get access to a

neighborhood concierge. It can make

restaurant reservations, book fitness

classes, and find new local spots, all

while you're being rewarded at more than

40,000 merchant partners. It's like

having a personal assistant baked into

where you live. It's simple. Being a

renter and now owning a home can feel a

whole lot better with Built. Join

membership for where you live at

joinbuilt.com/pivot.

That's jo.com/pivot.

Make sure to use our URL so they know we

sent you.

Support for this show comes from Harvey

AI. The future of law is Agentic. Not

just tools that assist, but AI agents

that navigate complex matters. Harvey

was built on legal agents that analyze,

draft, and execute with precision. But

great lawyers don't just complete tasks.

They strategize. That's why Harvey

created agents that can do the work from

end to end. They build a plan, pull from

secure data sources, run sub agents in

parallel, and draft the work product

ready for your review so you can

delegate the work and own the judgment.

Harvey agents support work across fund

formation, litigation, regulatory

compliance, M&A, and more. Adapting to

the complexity of each matter and the

way your team actually works. Trusted by

more than 60% of the AM law 100 and

leading Fortune 500 legal teams, Harvey

is the AI operating system designed

specifically for legal work, helping

teams move faster with greater precision

and confidence. Harvey, AI tailored for

law. Learn more at harvey.ai.

Scott, we're back with more headlines.

The CEO of United Airlines reportedly

pitched a merger with American Airlines

directly to Donald Trump. Of course, the

two companies combined would account for

about 40% of the US domestic flying

capacity. Industry experts and lawmakers

already pushing back, flagging major

antirust concerns. I mean, even I know

that as one analyst puts it, the Justice

Department doesn't object to that. They

What would they object to? Trump is

staying quiet for now with the press

secretary Carolyn Levid saying he has no

opinion on a potential merger. I mean, I

don't mind uh this guy trying it, but

why not? It's the last days of the

Nero's empire here, so why not? But this

seems like something that would be dead

on arrival. I just don't I don't see it.

>> Yeah. But you just you summarized it

perfectly and that is the last days of

NARO and that is you're going to see in

the next two years you're going to see

so many mergers um proposed because

everyone's going to go there's no

[ __ ] way an FTC or a DOJ that is not

in a deep coma would allow this. So if

we're, you know, if we're what are the,

you know, two most dominant play if

you're just going to see mergers like

crazy because they're going to go this

is our last chance because this

absolutely makes no sense uh from a

concentration of monopoly standpoint.

This should not be allowed to happen. It

would create the largest airline on

Earth. 30 to 40% of US domestic capacity

and air I don't know if anyone's noticed

airline tickets are

>> skyrocketing. I have I just bought some.

Um, I was looking at a one-way from

Miami to London business class and it

was 11.

>> I know. It's crazy. They're crazy.

>> Um, Kirby's argument to the

administration, a combined airline would

be a stronger competitor

internationally. Okay. Yeah. He noted

twothirds of long haul seats from two

from US on foreign carriers, but 60% of

passengers are American, framing it as a

trade deficit issue. And also American,

I love airlines. I love aviation. Uh

Delta does the best job domestically.

JetBlu's Mint is the best product. But

American has been America is is

has the best has the worst product.

They're the weakest of the big three.

111 million in net income last year on

54 billion in sales. Basically break

even. It carries 25 billion in long-term

debt, more than its rivals. On the other

hand, United, which is a better run

company, did 3.4 billion on 59 billion.

And American Airlines stock jumped

nearly 10% on the news.

>> What does that say? But the antitrust,

>> it could happen. This can't happen.

>> No way.

>> Well, the market thinks it might because

again, see above the guy, it's just

[ __ ] ridiculous that CEOs go kiss the

ass of the president to try and get a

merger through. He should have nothing

to do with this. But the the antitrust

problems here are striking. There are

289 routes where the two carriers

overlap and combining them would leave

only one or two airlines serving that

route. See above increase in prices

hubs which overlap some of the routes

that overlap are Chicago, Los Angeles,

New York, New York, Phoenix, Charlotte

could require devesting entire hub

operations in some cities

>> and the DOJ previously blocked the

JetBlue Spirit deal

>> which was a fraction of their size. So,

this is exactly the kind of deal that

shouldn't even be considered if there

was a DOJ or an FDC that was independent

and looked at consumer prices. And these

consumer mergers and the lack of

regulation does two things. It transfers

capital from labor and from consumers to

shareholders. Full stop. And this it

it's been a one-way flow of capital and

power for the last 30 years. And the DOJ

and FTC have almost no reviews anymore.

I mean, it's like if you want to save

money, get rid of the DOJ and the FTC.

What the [ __ ] are they doing now?

>> Well, you know, it's interesting because

on Monday there you're seeing the

significant push back to Paramount now.

A lot of Hollywood is now like got the

pitchforks out essentially. I don't know

if they can do anything about it at this

point, but you you see them like really

organizing the the C at SICOM, all these

places. There's all this push back. And

again, um David Ellison wouldn't show up

for a hearing uh in in Congress about

this just uh for personal reasons, but

um but there's just a lot of push back

there. And you sort of see it beginning

to coalesce these ideas of no, I don't

think so, which is interesting. You'll

see if this happens. Like I I I feel

like people are are quite in the mood to

stop these things now. And that's going

to be they're going to overreach on the

other side probably. Um, but it feels

like this is like I can't even believe

this guy did this. Like I just like,

well, okay.

>> By the way, I I feel bad saying I need

to correct the record. The DOJ and the

FTC do serve a purpose. They did they

did decide that Live Nation was a

monopoly, which was the right which was

the right decision.

>> So, we'll see. We'll see where it's

going. There's a lot of push back on all

these things, but you're right. They're

going to keep trying to do so um as

things come forward and then we'll get

to a normal level again. Um hopefully.

Um, one thing that's interesting, about

5 million kids have signed up for Trump

accounts. Um, a 1.2 million eligible for

$1,000 Treasury seed deposits. The

accounts were created through Trump's

big beautiful bill and are set to

officially launch July 4th. Bank of New

York Melon will manage the accounts and

Robin Hood will build a Trump accounts

app. Um, what do you think about Robin

Hood known for getting people into risky

trades involved in this? Obviously

another suckup to Trump in some fashion,

but um I have several friends who are

just doing it. It's like thousand free

dollars like why not? Like this why not?

It seems like let's take the money and

and use it to save for college or

whatever you want to save for for kids.

Any thoughts on this?

>> I love this concept. I remember meeting

with a guy named Alex von Fenberg a

couple years ago and he was pitching me

on the idea of baby bonds and he was

very passionate about it and he's been

very involved in it. I I love the

concept of at the very outset giving you

know for every infant born giving them

some money and letting compound you know

the most powerful force in the universe.

I would have gone much deeper than this

for $40 billion a year you could give

$7,000 to every baby and then I would

totally infantilize them and not let

them touch it till they're 65. You give

you spend $40 billion a year and then in

20 or 30 years you announce in another

20 or 30 years we're no longer going to

need social security because everyone's

going to have a million bucks at 65.

Interest rates dive and it pays for

itself.

>> But our Congress doesn't want to think

faster than their

>> [ __ ] 2in dick.

>> Is there danger here of riskiness for

people's like I mean this is free money.

That's what I can you know someone

sheepist who said oh I took a Trump

account. I'm like are you kidding? Grab

it. Like absolutely take a truck account

if you're eligible. So, just to just to

give you a sense of compound interest,

you know, my kid's going to college next

year. When he was born in 200

um when was my kid born? 200 2007.

I put $10,000 and I think it's called a

529 New York account.

>> And I'm like, I'm worried about college.

I don't I was a clinical professor

making 160 grand a year living in

faculty housing. And so, I thought,

okay, I'll scrape together 10 grand. And

I didn't do it again. I was stupid. I

didn't do it again. I just looked it up

online because I'm like, "Oh, what about

that 529 I did?" Now, granted, the

markets have ripped. Do you know what

that $10,000 is worth right now?

>> Couple hundred,000.

>> No, 85. But still, in 18 years, it went

more. I did them for both. I paid for

all of college with Louis and Alex. And

people have controversies around 521s.

You could have done better in the

market, but I just put it away and

forgot about it. And I kept I added the

maximum amount to it at the time.

>> Yeah. Yeah, but it's tax. I just was

like, I didn't want to I know I could

probably do better in the market, but

>> I don't care. I had the money. Certain

bet.

>> I don't think you could have because

because the difference, just to explain

it, if you invested $10,000 and I had 85

in the market, say I had 100, I'd have

to pay I'd have to pay capital gains on

it. Whereas, if you apply it towards

tuition or school supplies, you get to

you don't have to pay taxes on the

gains. My point is the idea of giving

kids every baby born a retirement

account. I wouldn't let them have access

to 18 or 25. The problem is and the

thing that's going to bankrupt our

nation as we continue to send more and

more old people who vote old people more

vote themselves more money. We have to

reduce entitlements for old people and

this is the way to do it. And then so

they're not entitlements. They're

investments. So they're not

entitlements. they become investments. I

mean I think the danger obviously is if

we remove it completely is people are

you know subject to whatever theitudes

of the market and that's that's the

always been the worry right that's why

it's called social security

>> there has never been okay but there has

never you could buy any five stocks

since the beginning

>> the beginning of the markets you could

buy any five stocks in the S&P and if

you hold on to them for 10 years you've

never lost money

>> because of demographics and innovation

the long-term trajectory of the market

now there's There's been decades where

it's gone flat,

>> but over the over the long over the long

term, there's nothing like the up and to

the right of the markets.

>> I agree. I put I put that money away and

I never paid a dime for college because

it had been saved and put away. I And it

was all taxree. It paid for their their

their dorms. It paid for their food and

Alex eats a lot.

>> Um and it was it was it was great. And I

was like

>> that meal plan. Yeah. Michigan is losing

money on Alex.

>> The very end of Louis college thing, uh,

Alex went to a less expensive college

was just a little bit of money, but it

was zero. It was the best money I ever

invested. I have to say I was speaking

of which, Alexer turned 21.

Congratulations, Alex. You're on your

own.

>> All right, Alex.

>> I know. Of course, he was studying last

night. I was like, Alex, go get a drink.

My guess is he's already he's already

done that. This is the bottom line or or

this is a theory you want to tap into.

The most profitable businesses in the

world tap into one thing and that is a

flaw in our instincts. We're desperate

for affirmation. We're desperate for

free gaming. We're desperate for

opportunities to procreate. So, we buy

Ferraris. We go on Instagram and we

gamble. The highest margin products in

the world tap into a flaw in our

instincts. You want to reverse that and

tap into the following flaw and that is

humans are really bad with respect to

the time space continuum. What do I mean

by that? Because for the majority of our

time on this planet, we haven't lived

past 35 and now we live to 80. People

have no sense what they need

>> of how fast time is going to go. and

they say, "Well, the markets are up 9 to

10% a year. That's nothing. I'm not

going to invest in the markets. I can

make more money as a baller opening a

restaurant or opening my company goes

public."

>> You are going to graduate from college.

You're going to blink. You're going to

have a couple kids. You're going to have

some joy. You're going to have some

grief and you're going to wake up and

you're going to be [ __ ] 60 years old.

>> It happens so fast. So, this is what you

want to do.

>> You want to at a very young age figure

out a way where you don't even get the

cash in your hands. matching programs at

work, 529s, baby bonds, automatic

withdrawals, and just a little bit of

money from an early age. And then blink,

you're 65 and you look at that account,

and you have a [ __ ] ton of money. This

is a flaw. This is your revenge on the

This is a way you put scaffolding on the

instincts that are flawed. Anyway, start

investing young.

>> Scott, one more quick break. We'll be

back for predictions.

Support for this show comes from

MongoDB. If you're tired of database

limitations and architectures that break

when you scale, it's time to think

outside the rows and columns. Because

let's be honest, you didn't get detect

to babysit a broken database. You got

into it to actually build something.

MongoDB lets you do that. It's flexible,

developer first, acid compliant,

enterprise ready, and built for the AI

era. Say goodbye to bottlenecks and

legacy code. Start innovating with

MongoDB. There's a reason it's trusted

by so many of the Fortune 500, and

that's because it's a platform built by

developers for developers. They swear by

it. Literally, they call it a great

[ __ ] database. Start building at

mongodb.com/build.

Okay, Scott, let's hear up predictions.

Is it about all birds now that it's an

AI business? No, just move along.

>> Oh, I had two and one of them all birds.

Okay, so I I'll go to that one cuz that

you're you prompted me. My my prediction

was going to be anthropic IPOs before

open AI, but that's boring and I've

already talked about anthropic. So, I'll

go to the one you suggested. Uh the all

birds pivot to AI will inspire a bunch

of copycats. You're going to see CHE,

GameStop, Rent the Runway, all decide

their AI companies. All so this is

what's happened. Albert's the once hyped

sneaker brand. They just sold its IP for

39 million two weeks ago, down from a $4

billion peak valuation. uncomfortable is

rebranding as but go ahead

>> is rebranding as Newbird AI and pivoting

to leasing AI chips GPUs. The company is

buying $50 million or secured 50 million

in financing to buy GPUs and lease them

to customers and shares spike nearly

900% at intraday highs on the

announcement. Uh so what is this going

to do? Just like remember when Bitcoin

treasury companies went crazy and all

these different companies decided they

were now Bitcoin treasury companies. So,

we've seen this movie before and it

doesn't end well. Long Island ICT Corp.

rebranded as Long Blockchain in 2017 to

ride the crypto wave and its shares were

eventually delisted and the SEC brought

insider trading charges. Newbird, if you

will, what I call Newird will s soon be

no. So, the prediction is the following.

Albert and this ridiculous [ __ ] jazz

hands pivot to AI that resulted in a

massive one day spike. ton of

competitive, ton of copycats, and it

doesn't end well.

>> What What does it end? How does it end?

>> These companies have short-term pops.

The insiders who get the shares before

they announce it dump the bag and then

the people who think this is anything

resembling an a company with enterprise

value end up losing a [ __ ] ton of money.

similar to all the blockchain tra all

the Bitcoin treasury companies all when

you try and it's like remember in the

early 2000s when I remember being in a

meeting a board meeting at William

Sonoma where we seriously contemplated

changing the name of the company to

William Sonoma.com because we thought

that would add shareholder value and

Howard Lester who was one of like the

clearest blue flame thinkers in retail

is like that's just [ __ ] stupid we're

not doing that. Uh anyways, when you're

just trying to create the illusion

you're in a hot area with absolutely no

domain expertise, IP or advantage, sure,

call it AI a pop. If you're in Alberts

right now, just take it from me, sell,

but you're going to see a dozen of these

things announced in the next

>> People did mock it, which is good. All

right. Um I I have no predictions today.

I I predict that Scott Galloway will be

a star of my show this weekend.

Everybody watch it cuz Scott is very

funny and actually has a lot of serious

and significant things to say about

healthcare and longevity and it's he's

really good.

>> I don't remember that part. I remember

falling asleep. I don't remember saying

anything substantive.

>> You sound great. You sound really good.

You actually say a lot of substantive

things. Anyway, he looks great and he's

and you get to see him sleep. Anyway, we

want to hear from you. Send us your

questions about business tech or

whatever's on your mind. Go to

nymag.com/pivot.

Submit a question for the show or call

8551 pivot. Elsewhere in the Karen Scott

universe this week on prof markets,

Scott spoke with Katherine Anne Edwards,

PhD economist and Bloomberg News

columnist on why AI is only one factor

behind the challenges young workers are

facing. Let's listen to a clip.

>> It's not as if the only thing standing

between young workers and a job is what

private employers are doing or say they

are doing or will do with AI. We have a

weak economy and a weak labor market

with terrible social supports and almost

no investment in people that don't have

a job. There are solutions that don't

have to come from just knowing more

about AI, but have to come from holding

our policy makers accountable for

economic mismanagement. AI is today's

story, but there will be another one.

Weakness is weakness in the labor

market. We don't have great

infrastructure for helping people who

don't have a job.

>> That's 100% right. It's so true. Anyway,

she's super smart.

>> Super smart. You like her.

>> Anyway, that's the show. Thanks for

listening to Pivot. Be sure to like and

subscribe to our YouTube channel. We'll

have lots to talk about next week.

There's so many topics happening and

we'll be back next week to do so.