HomeVideos

Elon Says What’s Coming Has No Precedent

Now Playing

Elon Says What’s Coming Has No Precedent

Transcript

850 segments

0:00

When people hear Elon Musk talk about

0:01

the future, they think it's science

0:03

fiction. But what if it's actually the

0:05

opposite? What if Elon is underelling

0:07

what's coming? Elon recently said, "The

0:09

scale of what is to come has no

0:11

precedent." After reviewing SpaceX's

0:13

latest plans, you start to understand

0:14

why. Today, we'll look at both the

0:16

near-term milestones and the long-term

0:18

vision. First, Arc Invest believes

0:20

Starlink is about to compete directly

0:22

with every major telecom carrier on

0:24

Earth. Their argument is simple. Today's

0:26

telecom industry is fragmented country

0:28

by country. Starlink can offer a single

0:30

global network. The next step, a SpaceX

0:33

cellular service where satellite becomes

0:35

the primary connection, not the backup.

0:37

Second, SpaceX upcoming milestones are

0:40

enormous. Index inclusions could trigger

0:42

tens of billions of dollars in forced

0:44

buying, followed by SpaceX first

0:46

earnings report as a public company.

0:48

Meanwhile, Starling continues widening

0:50

its lead, already controlling most

0:52

active satellites in orbit and many of

0:54

the best direct to sell positions.

0:56

Third, Mark Andre may have written the

0:58

most ambitious SpaceX thesis yet, the

1:00

sentient Sun. The idea is that Starship,

1:03

AI, robotics, orbital data centers, moon

1:06

factories, and eventually Mars cities

1:08

are all pieces of a single long-term

1:10

plan. Not just to build a company, but

1:12

an AI powered civilization that expands

1:15

beyond Earth. It sounds like science

1:17

fiction. Then again, so did reusable

1:19

rockets, Starlink, and self-landing

1:21

boosters. Today, we got Larry Goldberg

1:23

joining us. He's a serial entrepreneur.

1:25

He has been an active venture capital

1:26

investor for the last decade. Check out

1:28

his website at lumisenti.com.

1:31

Welcome, Larry.

1:31

>> Great to be here, Herbert.

1:33

>> Let's talk uh SpaceX stock is gyating,

1:36

skyrocket up, skyrocket down, and

1:39

eventually continue. We're going to talk

1:41

about the near-term milestones. Uh but

1:43

we'll also talk about the big vision

1:45

because uh I think Andre did a fantastic

1:48

job uh of explaining what he thinks the

1:52

future is. And then Archinvest also

1:55

started talking about things that a few

1:57

have been talking about. So we'll cover

1:58

those today. So let's start off with

2:00

this beautiful teaser that A16Z did

2:04

against all odds they called it and it's

2:07

h pretty inspiring. Let's watch it.

2:08

>> I had many people try to convince me not

2:10

to start the company. I mean if there

2:12

was anything they could have done to

2:13

stop me from starting the rocket

2:14

company, they would have done it. So

2:16

that's when I decided to start the

2:17

rocket company.

2:19

>> Musky is no rocket scientist. He's a.com

2:22

millionaire.

2:22

>> Not knowing anything about rockets, not

2:24

having ever built anything.

2:25

>> Now he says he can do what NASA has not.

2:27

>> I would have to be insane if I talked

2:29

the odds are in my favor. But if

2:31

something's important enough, then you

2:32

do it even though the risk of failure is

2:34

high. It's hard to get to orbit. By the

2:35

way, it's extraordinarily difficult.

2:37

>> Just moments after takeoff, the rocket

2:39

failed.

2:41

>> Yeah. 2008, we had the third consecutive

2:44

failure of the Falcon rocket for SpaceX.

2:46

>> Okay, this is bad.

2:47

>> We were running on fumes at that point.

2:49

We had virtually no money.

2:50

>> Can we just break for a second?

2:52

>> Sure. Sure. Of course.

2:54

>> The great thing about Elon is that he

2:55

understands that failure is part of the

2:57

development.

2:58

>> Did you think I need to pack this in?

3:01

>> Never.

3:02

>> Why not?

3:03

>> I don't ever give up.

3:04

>> There's a much bigger picture in Elon's

3:06

mind. Some way or another all goes

3:10

together.

3:11

>> Ignition.

3:13

>> Critics say you can't do this. Your

3:15

answer to them is we've done it. This is

3:17

the best entrepreneur of our generation

3:19

and he's going after two of the biggest

3:21

markets of all time. This is classic

3:23

Elon.

3:23

>> We want to be able to take anyone who

3:25

wants to go to the moon, anyone who

3:27

wants to go to Mars. We want to be able

3:28

to take you there. Not just a few

3:30

astronauts. I mean, you would be the

3:32

greatest adventure ever in human

3:34

history.

3:36

>> It really is really hard.

3:38

>> So, rocket science really is rocket

3:40

science.

3:41

>> Yeah.

3:41

>> So, well done. I I know that you're a

3:45

big fan of uh SpaceX. You probably

3:47

watched all of those failures and you

3:49

remember the pain for so long.

3:52

>> Yeah. You know, I um Elon came to my

3:55

notice not because of anything else but

4:00

his writing.

4:02

>> I heard about this crazy South African

4:05

who is launching rockets. You know, I as

4:07

a kid lived in South Africa and I tried

4:10

to build rockets. We buil actually built

4:12

a small rocket from the popular

4:14

mechanics diagrams.

4:16

Um, but I heard about him and then I

4:20

looked up his website and what I found

4:23

is that he kept a blog called a blog in

4:26

those days and he would write up every

4:29

failure in detail

4:33

>> and he would write it so well. I was

4:35

just struck by, you know, the clarity of

4:38

his thinking, the clarity of his

4:41

explanation of what went wrong, the

4:43

simplicity of it. And I was I was

4:46

entranced. But as I you know studied

4:51

what he was going through and how he got

4:53

to finally got to orbit that was it for

4:57

me. And so

4:59

that was my first

5:02

brush with Elon and um you know followed

5:05

him ever since. He's he's he's a great

5:09

hero of the time and he's certainly my

5:10

hero. So, uh, SpaceX, people think of it

5:14

as so far away, and you and I have done

5:16

many shows we can to try to show the

5:18

some of the business models that are

5:19

early, but you know, I hope people

5:21

realize that SpaceX is not just a

5:23

company that makes Elon rich. That seems

5:26

to be the narrative that's taken hold

5:28

right now, but it's so important for the

5:30

United States. China apparently is

5:32

losing the race to claim prime orbital

5:34

slots through Starlink. That's what the

5:36

China's main satellite system, the guy

5:39

who headed the head of that says says

5:42

Hua Haing runs the Quanfan satellite

5:45

system. China's answer to Starlink. He

5:47

told state media space orbits and

5:50

frequencies are non-renewable and going

5:52

fast. Starlink has over 12,400

5:54

satellites in orbit. China only has 200.

5:57

Starlink controls more than 60% of all

5:59

active satellites worldwide. It also

6:01

controls more than 70% of the prime

6:02

orbits for direct to cell service.

6:04

China's approval to launch 200,000

6:06

satellites, but has not built them yet.

6:09

The first orbital assault to file with

6:10

the ITU keeps the rights. I don't know

6:12

what that means, but here's him talking

6:14

about that China feels they're losing

6:17

and they are compared to SpaceX. So I

6:20

don't know why the public do you think

6:22

the public kind of understands that this

6:23

is not just you know oh Elon bad but

6:26

actually it is important for you know us

6:31

>> you know the the the uh mainstream media

6:35

have piled so hard on the Elon bad

6:38

message that it's incredibly difficult

6:41

for the average person to understand

6:45

and and then you get you know everybody

6:48

to the left of center

6:52

has been it's been drumed into them by

6:55

the leadership that you know Elon bad or

7:01

millionaire multi no it can't be a

7:03

millionaire because there too many of

7:04

them that are millionaires billionaire

7:06

bad

7:08

>> now

7:09

>> trillionaire terrible you know so it's

7:13

very difficult for you to for for one to

7:17

have a a reasonable conversation

7:20

about the subject, a rational

7:22

conversation about the subject. Elon's

7:26

not perfect. I mean, he, you know, he

7:29

does tend to be a little, you know,

7:33

reactive from time to time. Um, he's not

7:37

perfect. Uh, none of us are, but he is

7:42

he is the most remarkable human being um

7:47

that has lived. I mean in our century

7:49

and possibly any other century. I mean

7:52

he combines

7:55

the idea the ideal level of science and

7:59

physics understanding engineering

8:01

understanding and ability to act. It's

8:04

extraordinary it you know to have such a

8:07

person in our time extraordinary. Let's

8:10

talk SpaceX uh near term. We'll go

8:13

through each milestone that's coming up

8:14

but also what their big plans are. I

8:17

think both are being mis uh

8:18

misunderstood that there there's quite a

8:20

number of both positive and negative

8:22

catalysts for the stock in the near

8:24

term. We got to look at that. But also,

8:26

you know, the the vision of where this

8:27

is going, we we've tried to cover it,

8:29

but it's it could be bigger than we

8:31

we're thinking. This uh person said to

8:34

get a sense of scale, here's how the

8:35

$85.7 billion SpaceX just raised. So,

8:38

they raised not 75, but they actually

8:40

did a green shoe. They increased it to

8:42

85.7 billion. Compares to what they've

8:45

spent on different programs already.

8:47

People aren't ready for the magnitude of

8:48

things to come. So SpaceX spent four

8:51

billion to build the Falcon Dragon

8:53

system. Then they spent 15 billion to

8:56

build Starship, which is the largest

8:58

vehicle ever to fly. And then they spent

9:02

20 billion to build this the Starlink.

9:04

That's a lot of money. But now with $86

9:06

billion, maybe they can do a lot more

9:09

than just these three. Elon said, the

9:12

scale of what is to come has no

9:14

precedent. I wanted to hear what your

9:16

thoughts are when you saw this.

9:18

>> You know, that that diagram doesn't even

9:21

fully represent um the scope and scale

9:26

of what they're about to enter into.

9:29

um because it doesn't

9:33

it doesn't estimate the the amount of

9:35

investment that's going to go into

9:39

you know data centers on Earth.

9:43

They're not going to stop building data

9:45

centers on Earth. There's going to be a

9:48

significant investment in data centers

9:49

on Earth before they even go to uh to

9:53

orbit.

9:55

And it doesn't include the amount of

9:58

investment they're going to put into

10:00

software. So they're definitely going to

10:03

build a frontier model. They're

10:06

definitely going to build an agentic uh

10:10

layer above it and they're definitely

10:12

going to build enterprise software above

10:14

that layer. And so everybody

10:19

everybody who is diagramming out the

10:21

future tends to miss some aspects. It's

10:25

just amazing.

10:28

Why are they trying to improve upon it

10:30

when actually you know the S1 gave us

10:35

very very very detailed uh projections.

10:39

So there's going to be an enormous

10:41

amount of capital spend an enormous

10:44

amount of capital spend. And if I were

10:45

the Chinese, I would also be concerned.

10:48

>> Yeah. Um and then so SpaceX, we're going

10:53

to do a show, you and me, on uh tomorrow

10:55

on published Monday morning on cursor

10:57

and how exactly SpaceX is going to and

11:00

and XAI and Elon going to beat OpenAI,

11:05

Claude,

11:05

>> right,

11:06

>> Anthropic, and then leapfrog them. We'll

11:09

see how they address that $22.7 trillion

11:11

dollars of uh of enterprise AI. TAM uh

11:16

before we get there today, we're going

11:17

to cover the other markets that SpaceX

11:21

can hit. ArchInvest believes that

11:23

there's one big one uh which is uh

11:26

direct to sell. And they are thinking

11:28

that Starlink is about to compete

11:30

directly with every major cell carrier.

11:33

And we're going to listen to what he

11:34

says here. But when when I interviewed

11:36

you and Aaron Bernett, you guys have not

11:39

yet put in cellular mobile business

11:43

model. You said, you know, it's further

11:46

down the line. Have you revisited that?

11:48

>> Yeah. So Mark 33 did that model just to

11:52

be clear. I haven't even got begun to

11:56

grapple

11:58

with the implications of director cell.

12:01

I think director cell is going to be um

12:06

a country bycountry negotiation.

12:10

Um but you know when you consider the um

12:15

the growth of Starlink and its

12:20

penetration into almost 60% of the

12:24

countries of the world maybe higher

12:27

maybe 70% now of the countries of the

12:30

world not not populations because India

12:32

and China are not yet signed in but the

12:35

the number of countries that they

12:38

penetrated is extraordinary and You have

12:40

to think that every one of those

12:42

countries that they've penetrated, there

12:44

is an opportunity to add direct to sell

12:48

to their service. Well, you're talking

12:50

about billions of people, not million,

12:53

billions of people. And clearly, this is

12:56

going to be the least expensive delivery

12:58

method available because every

13:01

additional user is free. It costs SpaceX

13:06

zero.

13:08

Zero. And that's the magic of this

13:11

constellation that once the

13:13

constellation's up there, once you've

13:14

invested that money, then each

13:17

additional user is like free. Now to use

13:21

Starlink

13:23

right now, you have to actually have the

13:25

user buy a terminal. With director cell,

13:28

that goes away. So you'd think the

13:31

adoption would come even faster. Now

13:34

you're competing against telephone

13:35

companies and you have to get licenses.

13:38

So the two steps

13:40

of of you know some degree of difficulty

13:45

but my goodness me the opportunity the

13:49

the product offering is so compelling

13:52

it's hard to see how it can be avoided

13:55

or how they cannot succeed with it.

13:59

>> I I understand though from Elon's

14:01

comment a long time ago. He said that

14:02

the you can't just do it. You know, my

14:04

current phone right now, my iPhone can't

14:07

just automatically do it. You have to

14:08

have an updated phone chip that so it'll

14:11

still be

14:12

>> and and the question is will all the

14:14

phone phone vendors add the chip in or

14:19

will that chip not that chip but will

14:23

that functionality be integrated into

14:26

the standard Broadcom uh or other you

14:29

know chip manufacturers based chips. So

14:32

>> yeah,

14:33

>> there are there are a few there are a

14:35

few problems and there are a few issues

14:38

but

14:39

>> you know somehow

14:42

somehow SpaceX seems to find a way.

14:45

>> Okay. Well, here's what Arc Invest says.

14:47

Let's listen to their comments.

14:49

>> I suspect that um SpaceX is going to

14:51

vertically integrate and go, you know,

14:54

basically have its own cellular brand

14:56

where they are servicing you the global

14:58

customer in urban areas. they are

15:00

MVNOing like you know buying cellular

15:04

connectivity for others if they can't

15:05

serve the current customer base with

15:08

satellite connectivity but it'll be like

15:10

default satellite connectivity and then

15:13

kind of like fail over to cellular

15:16

connectivity whereas right now it's

15:18

clearly default cellular failover to

15:21

satellite and yeah there's a way to

15:23

think about the market like so that

15:25

would be competitive with you know a

15:28

bunch of like kind of sluggish behemoths

15:30

that everybody hates. So I I think that

15:32

they could win share on that basis. Um

15:35

and it and you know if if you imagine

15:38

like connectivity as a market is very

15:41

very geographically fragmented um

15:44

because it it's like tied to the

15:46

physical assets on the ground. And so

15:48

you know I as a Verizon c it's not like

15:50

I'm a Verizon customer and I move to

15:51

Europe and I can stay a Verizon

15:53

customer. I have to be an orange

15:54

customer or whatever you know. And so

15:56

it's in some ways similar to the old

15:58

media markets where it's like the cable

16:00

companies served media in this

16:01

particular pocket and then at least

16:03

nationalized but on a global basis it

16:06

didn't at all until Netflix came in and

16:08

said actually we can advertise content

16:10

costs across the entire world. And

16:12

that's what Starlink is basically doing

16:14

is they're advertising connectivity

16:16

cross across the entire world which then

16:18

gives them like an ability to become a

16:21

truly global telecom provider. um which

16:25

nobody has been nobody can do today even

16:28

like think about a business a business

16:30

has a different telecom relationship in

16:32

every geography they operate in there's

16:34

a lot of inefficiency in that you know

16:36

and and also it means that like it just

16:39

I think I think there's this opportunity

16:41

for them to stitch the world together

16:43

where it it does become competitive with

16:46

existing terrestrial suppliers

16:48

>> what do you think Larry

16:49

>> so everything he says is correct um you

16:52

know Brad is Brad understands these

16:56

details extremely well, but it raises it

17:00

raises some of the problems that I spoke

17:02

about, but also points to some of the

17:04

opportunity that exists because you know

17:07

when you think about uh you direct cell

17:11

I mean it just it just wipes away so

17:15

many of the difficulties of

17:17

communication

17:19

and so ultimately it seems that it must

17:22

succeed dramat atically and and of

17:24

course nobody loves the their phone

17:26

company. Nobody. Um but you know

17:30

everybody seems to love Starling. So

17:32

there's a very strong indicator right

17:35

there. You know it's all about the

17:37

product and you know Elon is the

17:39

greatest product manager ever lived.

17:42

>> I I have a feeling that uh the reason I

17:44

wanted to bring this up is because

17:45

obviously we've you know talked to death

17:48

already about SpaceX opportunities and

17:50

all the big areas that they're going to

17:51

go into. direct to cell is one that we

17:53

barely talk about because it is it's

17:56

there but it's not yet you know uh going

17:58

to be a thing but you you can see

18:00

ArchInvest already bringing it up. I

18:02

believe that SpaceX and Tesla together

18:05

probably will create a device and it

18:07

won't be a phone but it'll be an AI

18:09

device. It will be a necklace. It'll be

18:11

a ring. It'll be a glasses or something

18:13

that and then they will be able to offer

18:15

you instant access to AI through any of

18:18

these pebbles or whatever devices that

18:20

they create. And that will just get

18:22

more, you know, easily much easier than

18:24

waiting for cell phone manufacturers to

18:27

create their phones. So,

18:28

>> you know, you you're on to something

18:30

there because, you know, we talked about

18:31

the the Tesla cell phone forever and

18:35

Elon said as I predicted he would that

18:38

they wouldn't touch a cell phone. But

18:40

>> yeah,

18:40

>> the opportunity to build a device

18:43

something to replace the cell phone. Um,

18:47

you know, people have talked about uh

18:49

using some form of glasses. Um,

18:54

but as you say, necklace or some kind of

18:56

device.

18:58

Um, I was listening to somebody who was

19:02

being interviewed and they had actually

19:04

seen the Johnny IV

19:06

>> um device and

19:09

>> Yeah. And they were very excited about

19:11

the Johnny IV device.

19:13

>> Yeah.

19:13

um which apparently do include glasses

19:18

from what I'm understanding.

19:20

Um but it's hard to see how a device can

19:26

avoid something for the eyes, some way

19:29

for the eyes to to see. So, and you

19:33

don't want to actually deflect your your

19:35

view. So, it'll be interesting to see

19:38

how this evolves. It'll be very

19:40

interesting to see how this evolve.

19:42

>> All right. So that's we're going to come

19:43

back to the future about the sentient

19:45

sun because that is the most futuristic

19:47

comment that Andreas's talking about

19:49

that Elon liked by the way. So let's go

19:51

back to the current near-term

19:54

milestones. Sawyer put this together.

19:57

Basically he says June 18th uh indexes

20:00

are going to start including SpaceX. So

20:03

that is today. Uh CRSP index inclusion

20:07

for SpaceX triggers an estimated $4 to7

20:09

billion enforced buying by passive

20:11

funds. uh June 18th uh Fitzy Russell

20:14

index triggers another 609 and June 26th

20:18

MCSI MCSCI index inclusion. So those

20:22

three are coming like this week,

20:24

>> right? But let me let me make an

20:26

observation here. Everybody's talking

20:28

about the impact of the index

20:31

inclusions. I want to tell you why

20:33

they're non-events. M

20:36

>> look at the volumes that they're talking

20:38

about and think about the volumes we've

20:40

seen in SpaceX over the last week. These

20:43

are drops in a bucket and it's a

20:46

gigantic bucket. SpaceX moves on

20:50

hundreds of millions of shares.

20:54

We're talking about 4 to7 billion

20:56

dollars, which is hardly hundreds of

21:00

millions of shares. It's a lot of shares

21:02

and it may even amount to a 100 million

21:05

shares but it's it's behind us to a

21:08

large extent. Most of these index funds

21:11

I think have already bought or have or

21:14

are buying in relatively small

21:16

quantities compared to the volumes we've

21:19

been seeing. We are filming this episode

21:21

on Thursday. So just FYI, the stock is

21:25

falling as of this hour that we're doing

21:27

this. Uh, end of June, Harbor 3, Tesla

21:30

owners get FSD version 14 light. That

21:32

was a promise, but none of us are

21:34

holding our breath on that one. Uh, July

21:37

2nd, Tesla Q2 vehicle delivery report.

21:40

Morgan Stanley actually expecting higher

21:42

val vehicles delivery for this quarter.

21:45

And then we got July 6, NASDAQ 100.

21:48

>> I would also say, sorry, don't sorry to

21:50

interrupt, but I would also expect

21:52

higher energy

21:54

>> uh delivery. I I think it's going to be

21:57

a a real good quarter for energy. Really

22:02

good quarter for energy.

22:03

>> Yeah. And then a July 6 NASDAQ

22:06

conclusion, another 8 to 12 billion.

22:09

Okay. Then late July, right? Because

22:11

after you do the the energy the report

22:14

vehicle delivery, usually three month

22:16

three weeks later, we have the Q2

22:17

earnings call.

22:19

>> Yeah. Yeah. So, so definitely that the

22:22

July buying by NASDAQ will be a much

22:26

bigger event than you know the the um

22:31

the Footsie and the MSCI. But we'll see.

22:35

We'll see.

22:36

>> Okay. Now, one thing he's missing here

22:39

is that I expect that there's going to

22:41

be the very first SpaceX earnings call

22:43

July 22nd or 28th or 29th.

22:46

>> Good. Yeah. And I believe that that's

22:50

when Elon will announce that they will

22:52

announce an acquisition of Tesla

22:54

>> possibly. I mean, who knows? But that's

22:56

where the breadcrumbs point.

23:01

>> I would be surprised, but you could be

23:03

right,

23:04

>> right? You've been saying it's going to

23:05

be much later. Uh early mid August.

23:07

Okay. So, here here's the SpaceX Q2

23:09

earnings call. Okay. Oh, okay. So, he

23:12

thinks it's early mid August. I thought

23:13

it was going to be late July.

23:18

Hard to tell. Hard to tell.

23:21

>> I don't know where he got this one from.

23:22

Early mid August. Um,

23:26

and then two trading days after SpaceX

23:28

Q2 earnings are released, 30% of

23:30

eligible insider shares unlock.

23:34

So, that's a selling.

23:38

>> That's that's that's a lot of shares.

23:41

That's a lot. But I think they've been

23:43

hedged very very significantly already.

23:46

That's my guess.

23:47

>> Mhm. Okay. And then we've got um since

23:51

only about 40% of all outsing shares are

23:53

eligible for early release lockups that

23:55

30% above equates to 12% of all outsing

23:58

shares. That's significant that one that

24:01

move. And then from then on you got 7%

24:04

7% 7% on locks.

24:08

But these are good dates to follow. So

24:10

in September when we see the rebalancing

24:14

um

24:16

I think we are we're getting towards the

24:19

kind of area that I would expect a

24:22

potential

24:24

deal to be announced. I think the deal

24:26

is only going to be announced next year,

24:28

but we're getting closer to the period

24:31

and it's possible that they could move

24:32

it up earlier depending on how trading

24:34

goes in the shares and and depending on

24:38

the um the quarterly events.

24:41

>> I think you might be right there in the

24:43

sense that you if you were Elon and

24:45

SpaceX and you're trying to be fair to

24:47

your shareholders, you might want to

24:49

give them enough chance here for them to

24:51

sell their stock.

24:53

uh you know it would be unfair if they

24:55

make an announcement of uh purchasing a

24:57

company prior to although they just

24:59

announced that they're going to purchase

25:00

cursor but that's only you know only 60

25:03

billion

25:05

you know but not not trillions

25:08

>> uh so that would be interesting so maybe

25:10

you're right that it's more closer to

25:11

this okay I'll leave this up for you uh

25:13

audience to just take a look at this and

25:15

follow these dates but these are the big

25:17

dates and basically by the end of

25:19

December that's when uh all of the

25:22

insiders ers the unlock has expired for

25:27

um for the shareholders except for Elon.

25:30

He has to wait until next year.

25:33

>> Okay.

25:34

>> Well, uh I Yeah, I I must check when my

25:39

shares unlock. I thought that it was

25:41

only next year that mine did. So, I

25:44

think there may be quite a few other

25:46

shareholders. Yeah.

25:48

>> I don't I Okay. I thought I was pretty

25:51

sure about this. Okay. So um let's let's

25:54

this this article that Mark Andre put

25:55

together who put together that video

25:57

that we watched at the very beginning

25:59

and he called it SpaceX and a sentient

26:01

sun. It's a very long article. We'll

26:03

just go and cover some of the key parts.

26:05

Elon liked it enough he forwarded it and

26:07

he also said make our son sentient to

26:09

understand the universe and extend the

26:11

light of consciousness to the stars. Do

26:13

you have kind of a a summary of what you

26:16

think this means? Well, I mean this

26:18

plays into this whole notion of, you

26:22

know,

26:24

using this all the sun's energy uh and

26:28

you know for the good of humankind

26:32

and that's this that's the transfer of

26:34

the sun's energy into sentience.

26:37

Um, so I mean, you know, this is

26:41

projecting the future, an awful long way

26:44

forward, an incredibly long way forward.

26:47

I think I think this is, you know, a

26:49

couple of hundred years dream, maybe a

26:51

thousand years dream. So, but that's how

26:53

Elon thinks and and certainly keyed to

26:57

that. So, some of the key points that he

26:58

makes here is um you know that he's

27:01

trying to he he he he really just it's a

27:03

really long article, but he talks about

27:05

the beginnings of SpaceX, all the things

27:07

that they had to accomplish to get to

27:09

where they are, but the world that

27:10

SpaceX enables. So, once you get to a

27:12

kilogram of cargo to cost 54,000 on the

27:15

space shuttle, a kilogram cost 54,000 on

27:19

the space shuttle before it was retired

27:21

on Starship at maturity, it's going to

27:23

be $100 per kilogram.

27:26

That's the magnitude of difference. And

27:28

if when you can do that, that changes so

27:31

many things. And he said the closest

27:34

historical parallel might be the

27:35

transcontinental railroad and then how

27:38

it was able to reduce the cost of

27:40

travel. And if you're able to do that,

27:42

>> Mhm.

27:43

>> I think sail

27:46

was almost more important than the

27:49

invention of the transcontinental

27:51

railroad.

27:52

>> Sail like sail boats.

27:54

>> Yeah. Because when when humankind

27:59

discovered that it could cross the

28:01

oceans, now

28:03

>> small numbers had crossed the oceans in

28:05

rafts. Small numbers had crossed the

28:07

oceans in, you know, boats that they had

28:10

somehow to paddle um using human power.

28:15

But

28:17

sale

28:18

changed the world dramatically. Probably

28:22

dramatically as dramatically as rail and

28:26

industrialization and the

28:28

industrialization it brought. There was

28:31

some industrialization before uh trains

28:35

but and it took steam and then

28:37

ultimately you know it took uh internal

28:40

combustion but I think and and you know

28:44

it's an abstract argument it doesn't

28:46

really matter but we've seen these

28:48

massive changes in human

28:53

in human existence

28:55

due to you know the discovery of fire

28:58

the discovery of

29:00

and then railroads or industrialization.

29:06

It's these are gigantic changes.

29:09

Gigantic changes.

29:10

>> Yeah.

29:12

>> And going to space is you know just you

29:15

know what we did 50 years ago was an aha

29:19

moment and then we forgot about it.

29:23

So, you know, it's like we didn't do

29:25

anything

29:27

and now we're doing the thing.

29:29

>> It's it's a huge unlock because I like

29:31

the way that they framed that sentient

29:33

sun. The sun is your biggest energy

29:36

resource available. And Elon keeps

29:38

trying to explain to people how big it

29:40

is. You get rid of all planets in the

29:42

solar system. It's like 99.9% of the

29:45

solar system. And it's got so much

29:47

energy. You can harness that energy for

29:50

intelligence. And if you can create in

29:53

unlimited intelligence for humanity that

29:55

unlocks all sorts of uh humanity

29:58

benefits to humanity, abundance, all

30:00

that. Um

30:01

>> I will tell you I will tell you and this

30:04

is conversation perhaps for another day

30:06

but I just wanted to put it on on

30:08

record. By the time you get to Mars, the

30:12

sun is very dim.

30:16

much beyond Mars.

30:18

You can't even derive energy from the

30:21

sun.

30:23

So, just something to be aware of when

30:26

we waxes when we wax this eloquent.

30:30

>> Thank you. Yeah, I was going to say that

30:31

the other u I'm not going to go through

30:33

all this, but the other things that

30:34

unlocks is the industrial moon.

30:37

>> Yeah.

30:37

>> The uh compute in the sky, which we've

30:39

been talking about forever. Yeah.

30:41

>> And then um Mars, of course. Yeah.

30:46

>> Then the sentient sun, which I really,

30:48

really like. So, I just wanted to

30:52

highlight that, you know, not only is

30:55

there like near-term things that's about

30:56

to happen, more things than people

30:59

realize, terrestrial data centers, maybe

31:01

some point the mobile phones, maybe at

31:03

some point some sort of a AI device,

31:06

then you got the orbital data centers,

31:08

but then there's some and then the

31:09

things that are out there are bigger

31:11

than anybody's even measured at this

31:13

point. like it's just more than anything

31:15

all the output of the United of Earth

31:18

combined.

31:20

>> So just thought it was important to go

31:22

through that with you. Thank you so

31:23

much, Larry. Any final thoughts about

31:25

this whole thing about the future and

31:26

Elon and SpaceX and near-term? I'm glad

31:29

I'm just glad to have lived long enough

31:32

to see, you know, the actual blossoming

31:36

of what I saw beginning when Elon wrote

31:40

those words and set his target. And I,

31:45

you know, at the time I believed him and

31:48

he's he's not disappointed me at all.

31:53

So, you know, I've had to have some

31:56

patience and, you know, it kind of just

31:58

squeaked in there given my age, but man,

32:01

to see to see the evolution, it's just

32:05

incredible.

32:06

>> Yeah.

32:06

>> You know,

32:08

>> that reminds me um I just read this uh

32:10

this this post that somebody made that

32:12

he spoke to somebody who works at

32:13

SpaceX, a high level engineer, and he

32:16

said, you know, people think that the

32:18

reason I or my employee the other

32:19

employees at SpaceX are so driven is

32:21

because of the mission. like we really

32:23

want to get to Mars and he said actually

32:26

it's it's like what makes us believe we

32:28

can get to Mars or achieve all these

32:30

things that Elon says it's not that he

32:32

said what is more important to us is his

32:34

ability we we trust Elon to be able to

32:37

hit to to navigate all of the things

32:40

that need to happen for these wonderful

32:42

things to happen to move regulatory he

32:46

needs to be able to move the basic uh

32:48

you know a rocket ship you know the the

32:50

the building blocks

32:52

Each one of those are impossible

32:53

challenges, but if he's able to hit each

32:56

one of them, then all these big things

32:57

happen. And if you trust a person that

33:00

has the skill to do those things, then

33:02

you know that this mission is not

33:04

impossible.

33:04

>> And don't forget, don't forget about one

33:08

other thing. His ability

33:12

to adapt the strategy.

33:14

>> Yeah.

33:14

>> While keeping the end goal in mind.

33:17

>> Yeah.

33:17

>> It's not a straight line. It is not a

33:20

straight line.

33:21

Yes. It is not a straight line. We don't

33:24

know. Even Elon doesn't know the clear

33:28

path.

33:29

>> Yeah.

33:30

>> He sees a vision. He is pursuing the

33:33

vision, but from time to time he has to

33:36

make, you know, he has to tack and move

33:41

a slightly different angle, tack again

33:43

and so on. So yeah. Yeah. It's it's

33:47

>> and the other big one is financial

33:49

engineering. Financial engineering

33:51

getting the having the money that you

33:53

need when you need it ahead of your

33:55

competitors and then moving faster. So

33:58

his ability to have created those

33:59

terrestrial data centers, renting them

34:02

out to the people that should have built

34:04

these data centers way ahead of them,

34:06

uh, you know, ex at the time.

34:08

>> I say I had

34:09

>> I just can't I can't get out of my mind

34:13

that post that he made that ex post he

34:16

made which he said, you know, build a x

34:20

load of data centers, question mark,

34:24

make a boatload of profit. Yeah. I mean,

34:27

He published it to everybody saying this

34:29

is the deal and nobody did it except him

34:32

because no one can do it.

34:33

>> Yeah,

34:34

>> it's crazy.

34:35

>> Yeah. Amazing.

34:36

>> Thank you. This is fun. Well, we will

34:38

have many of these conversations, I'm

34:40

sure, as we move along. Thank you so

34:41

much, Larry. Check out lumacenti.com.

34:44

Thanks, everybody. I've created a

34:46

website that is the most comprehensive

34:47

resource for the Tesla investor. Please

34:50

check it out. Simply go to my website at

34:52

herbalm.com.

Interactive Summary

This discussion explores SpaceX's expansive future, from near-term milestones like index inclusion and Starlink's growth to the long-term vision of becoming an AI-powered civilization. The participants, Herbert and Larry Goldberg, analyze the strategic importance of Starlink, direct-to-cell technology, and the "sentient sun" concept, emphasizing Elon Musk's unique capability to manage complex engineering, regulatory, and financial challenges to achieve seemingly impossible goals.

Suggested questions

3 ready-made prompts