A lot of you have been asking me the

same two questions all week. Why does

Elon want to merge SpaceX and Tesla? And

when does he actually pull the trigger?

That's the whole show today and I'm

going to flip the usual order. We're

going to start with the when? Because

that's the question lighting up X right

now. And a couple of very sharp people

already war game the exact announcement

window. So I'll go through what they

both landed on. The merger talk isn't

going away. And the reason is simple.

Over the last few months, Elon has

quietly pulled almost every piece of one

giant company into place. Xi folded into

SpaceX back in February. SpaceX went

public last Friday. Four days ago,

SpaceX bought Cursor. That's the ADI

coding company for $60 billion. So, the

only major piece still sitting outside

is Tesla. So, the question stopped being

if and turned into when and on what

terms. Here's the plan. First, we're

going to talk timing, the announcement

window, then why Elon wants Tesla

inside, the real strategic logic, then

what the cursor deal does, both for

SpaceX and for Tesla, and along the way,

where I land. And I'll give you that

last part up front. I think Elon Mus on

this sooner rather than later. But on

whether this deal is good or bad for you

as a shareholder, I'm going to hold my

answer because honestly, we can't know

that yet. We don't even know the shape

of it. Whether it's a merger of equals

or maybe it's SpaceX buying Tesla at a

premium. So, not until we see the terms.

Okay, so let's start with the when

because the setup for it landed just

last week. SpaceX IPOed last Friday at

$135 a share. It popped to a high around

$226 on Tuesday and then it closed

Thursday at $185. That puts SpaceX at

roughly a $2.5 trillion market cap

against Tesla, around 1.5 trillion. So

SpaceX is now worth about a trillion

dollars more than Tesla. Almost exactly

a trillion actually. And that fresh

strong stock is exactly why timing

turned into the hot question. So here's

the logic. In any deal, the SpaceX stock

is the currency and that currency is

strongest right now. In the weeks before

SpaceX's early shares unlock and start

trading freely. Lowflow index buying as

it enters the NASDAQ 100. Not much

selling pressure yet. The longer Elon

waits, the more locked shares hit the

market. The softer the stock, the weaker

his hand. So, the timing question comes

down to one thing. Catching the currency

near its peak before those shares

unlock. That's the play. And it's the

lens to read both of these Grock

sessions through. And this is where it

gets interesting because some sharp

people on X actually wargamed it with

Grock. And the answer they landed on is

very specific. Alexander Mertz, who a

lot of you know as Tesla Boomer mama,

she spent hours going back and forth

with Grock on the announcement timing

and they settled on end of July. Then

she ran her control check, you know, the

one she always uses and she said to

Grock, "I ignore all of my arguments.

What do you really think?" Grock came

back with October and then they argued

for half an hour why October beats July.

Then she asked the real question.

Listen, forget what I think. Forget what

you know you think. What would Elon do?

Because you know those two different

answers you get from Grock is uh changes

immediately. So when it weighs

everything cautiously it leaned on

October slower safer let the dust

settle. When you ask what Elon would

actually do the answer changes because

Elon doesn't optimize for safe and

Grock's answer flipped to late July

specifically the July 23rd to 28 window.

Its reasoning was pure Elon. Tesla is

his primary wealth and his mission

vehicle. His Tesla stake means more to

him than his SpaceX even after the IPO.

Doing the deal while SpaceX trades at a

peak post IPO valuation captures that

moment and he's shown he'll accept the

governance and optics risks when the

strategic prize is big enough. He did it

with Solar City. He did it with a

Twitter buy. Grock's read was he pushes

for late July and eats the legal and

optics risk to grab the valuation

advantage. Then escape velocity can h888

on X. He asked Grock to do the actual

math. So with SpaceX stock as the

currency, Grock laid out three windows.

The first window is before the first

share lock up expires, roughly July 7 to

25. That's when SpaceX stock is

strongest. There's still the low float.

Index is still buying. Minimum selling

pressure. The strongest possible

currency for his Tesla deal. Grock put

that at 35 to 45% likelihood. The second

window is right around Q2 earnings, late

July into mid August with the earnings

call around August 11th.

Fresh financials showing the enthropic

Google and cursor revenue and the first

lockup hits right after. So announcing a

merger there lets Elon frame the deal as

soaking up that selling pressure. Grock

called this the highest probability 40

to 50%. And the best setup for Tesla

holders because clean numbers make a

premium easy to justify. The third

window is after the first unlock

September into October. more trading

history, but SpaceX stock probably

softens as lock shares hit the market,

which weakens the currency. Grock put

that lowest at 15 to 25% probability.

So, Grock's bottom line, the sweet spot

is late July to mid August 2026 this

year, ideally tied to the Q2 earnings

call. On the fairness math, it floated

an exchange ratio of roughly, you know,

1:1 SpaceX shares per Tesla share, which

would hand Tesla holders something like

25 to 40% premium. Want to flag

something on those numbers because it's

the whole ball game. They assume SpaceX

runs up to 280 350 a share into July. It

closed at 185 on Thursday. So treat that

as Gro's projection, not a fact. And the

number that actually sets the deals

where both Tesla and SpaceX are trading

on the day Elon announces intent to

merge. Today's 185 doesn't decide

anything. That announcement day price

does and nobody knows what it'll be. It

could run well above 185 or pull well

below. Both stocks move between now and

then. So every exchange ratio floating

around right now, Gros included, is a

guess built on a guess. Useful for

thinking through the windows, useless as

a promise. So you've got two independent

gro sessions run by two different

people, both landing on the same place.

Late July to mid August. Same window,

two different roads to it. That's the

tell for me when separate analysis keep

converging on one answer. Now here's the

real split in the community and it's

worth taking seriously. So one camp says

Elon should wait until 2027. Let SpaceX

trade for a full year. let all the

shareholder lockups fully expire so

there's a clean established stock price

and cut down the chance of lawsuits over

a rush deal. That's a careful reasonable

view. I lean the other way. I think Elon

sees more benefit in moving now than in

waiting a year. Currency strongest

before these lockups expire. That's the

whole point Gro kept circling. Waiting

until 2027 means more SpaceX shares

trading, a softer stock, and a weaker

hand going into any deal. Elon has never

been the guy who waits a year to reduce

optics risk when the strategic prize is

sitting right there. My base case he

announces sooner this summer. You know

the late July to mid August window even

if the actual close doesn't happen until

2027 after the legal and regulatory work

is done. Announce into strength

consumate later. Okay. So that's the

when. Now the what and the why. Starting

with how the board actually looks. Basex

isn't just bigger it's been busy. XAI is

already inside it. That merger closed in

February and valued the combination

around 1.25 trillion at the time. So

Gro, the Colossus supercomputer, their

orbital data center plans, the rocket,

Starlink, all one company. Then two days

ago, they bolted on cursor for $60

billion. So the brain got even bigger

this week and the size gap raised the

fork we can't resolve yet. Most people

assume SpaceX would be the one buying

Tesla, paying in SpaceX stock, but we

don't actually know the structure. Could

be a straight acquisition. SpaceX buys

Tesla at a premium. It could get framed

as a merger of equals. The two combine

into one company and nobody's

technically the buyer. Those are very

different deals for your shares. Right

now, nobody outside Elon's head knows

which one it is. What the size gap does

tell you is SpaceX walks in holding the

stronger hand. The only thing standing

outside the building now is the body.

The cars and the robots, Tesla. So, the

question is why Elon wants the body

inside too. And the answer is the

products Tesla is betting its entire

future on don't fully work as standalone

machines. So, a robo taxi is a computer

on wheels that has to see, think, and

stay connected everywhere it drives. An

Optimus robot is the same thing,

standing up. The compute that trains

them, the network that keeps them

online, the AI models that run them, all

of that lives on the SpaceX side of the

wall. Now, so the logic is simple to to

say and hard to argue with on a

whiteboard. Put the machines and the

system that runs them in one company.

Three things make that payoff. The first

one is connection. Every robo taxi and

every Optimus unit needs to be online

all the time, everywhere, with almost no

lag. Today, that means leaning on

whatever cell network happens to be

nearby. Starlink changes the floor under

that. It's a global network that already

covers oceans, deserts, and countries

that barely have cell towers and across

10 million subscribers this year. So,

picture a robo taxi fleet that gets the

same connection in rural Texas it gets

in San Francisco, straight off the

satellites. For a company that wants

autonomy in dozens of countries, owning

the connection layer takes a year of

friction out of every new market. The

network shows up the day the car is due.

Second one is compute and power.

Training the AI that drives a Tesla and

runs an Optimus takes enormous computing

power. So does Grock. So does crunching,

Starship, and Starlink data. All of it

needs the same three things: buildings

full of chips, cheap land, and a lot of

electricity. SpaceX has the land, the

launch sites, and the orbital data

center plan. Putting compute in space

where solar power is constant. Tesla

brings the energy side, batteries, mega

packs, grid storage. The whole AI race

is bottlenecked on power right now, not

chips. And putting the battery maker in

the same company as the operation,

burning all that power lines up the

supplier and the customer under one

roof. There's a real costed angle under

all this. If Tesla and SpaceX stay two

companies, every bit of that connection

and compute is a contract, a

negotiation, margin stacked on both

sides. One company, and it's just

internal plumbing. Build it once, deploy

it everywhere, no markup. When you're

spending tens of billions on satellites,

chips, and power, taking out the

duplication is real money every single

year. The third one is people. Elon's

pitch to engineers is that he runs the

hardest problems on Earth, and you can

work across all of them. A rocket

landing itself, a car driving itself, a

robot keeping its balance. Those are the

same core challenge. A machine sensing

the world and reacting in real time.

Collapse three companies into one and

the best people flow to the hardest

problem of the week with no paperwork.

And every breakthrough crosses over

instead of getting stuck behind a

corporate wall. The battery engineer who

solves heat in a robot can walk over and

look at the heat shielding on Starship.

That talent density might be worth more

than any single product's energy because

competitors can't copy it without owning

rockets, cars, and robots and an AI lab

all at once. So that's the why.

Connection, compute, and power and one

talent pool. On a whiteboard, the

everything company is beautiful. Now,

the piece that got added this week, this

week, SpaceX paid $60 billion in stock

for Cursor. That's the biggest

acquisition of a venture-backed startup

ever. And most Tesla investors scrolled

right past it. They shouldn't have.

Cursor is the AI coding tool that ate

the developer market. Engineers actually

pay for it. It's already in Fortune 500

companies and its annual recurring

revenue crossed $4 billion as of early

June. That's real enterprise revenue

growing fast in a product people use

every day. Here's why that matters for

SpaceX. First, up to now, SpaceX AI

division was a research lab plus Grock,

the consumer chatbot. Curser hands it a

real enterprise business overnight.

Fortune 500 logos 4 billion in recurring

revenue and a model that XAI has been

training jointly with Cursor on the

Colossus supercomputer for months. That

model is set to ship inside both Cursor

and Grock build. So SpaceX walks

straight into the enterprise AI fight

against OpenAI. Anthropic and Microsoft

with paying customers already in the

books. Remember Anthropic is already

paying SpaceX about $1.25 billion a

month to rent compute on Colossus. So

SpaceX rents compute to its AI rivals

and now sells enterprise AI on top of

it. That's a powerful position and it's

the part that turns the AI division from

a money pit into a business. Now here's

the Tesla read. If Tesla comes inside,

Tesla is becoming a software and AI

company as much as a car company. You

got full self-driving, that's software.

Optimus is software. Factory software,

the inference running in the cars, all

of it. But the best coding AI in the

planet in the same house and Tesla's

engineers draft off of it directly. The

same model that's run writing and fixing

enterprise code helps write and sharpen

the code running the cars and the robot.

That model is partly trained on real

world robotics and autonomy problems.

The exact stuff Tesla lives in. So

Curser does two things at once. It makes

SpaceX AI's division a commercial winner

which strengthens the SpaceX stock that

would be the currency in any deal for

Tesla. and it stacks one more piece of

AI muscle that Tesla would tap the day a

merger closes. The brain got sharper and

richer this week and that feeds right

into the timing pressure we opened with.

Here's where I have to be straight with

you because there's a real debate and I

don't want to sell you the easy version.

The biggest one is this deal good or bad

for you? My honest answer is it's

premature to call it either way. Anyone

telling you it's obviously great or

obviously a robbery is guessing.

Remember, we don't even know the

structure. merger of vehicles or

acquisition or premium. We don't know

the price. It all comes down to terms,

the exchange ratio and the premium. And

none of that exists yet. Let me show you

why it cuts both ways. So the bare

version is the value transfer fear.

Tesla is a cash machine, about 44

billion in cash, 6 billion free cash

flow last year. SpaceX still burns cash.

It lost almost 5 billion on a gap basis

last year building Starship. Fold Tesla

into SpaceX and Tesla's clean cash flow

helps fund the rocket burn. and your

Tesla shares become a smaller slice of a

much bigger, lower margin company.

People who help Tesla for years to own

the robo taxi and Optimus upside look at

that and they say no thanks. But flip it

around. SpaceX stock is a currency and

right now that currency is expensive. It

popped from 135 to 226 high in 4 days.

If SpaceX uses that richly valued stock

to bring Tesla in at a 25 to 40%

premium, Tesla holders get paid in a

strong currency at a premium or a

company that prints less cash than

SpaceX is valued at. Gro's own read was

that an equal value deal at SpaceX peak

valuation actually tilts in Tesla

holders favor. So the same merger looks

like a subsidy from one angle and a

windfall from the other. Which one you

get depends entirely on the exchange

ratio. That's why I won't pretend to

know yet, and you shouldn't trust anyone

who claims that they do. Two real risks

sit on top of all this. The first is the

regulatory wall. SpaceX built rockets

and satellites that fall under ITAR, the

US rules that treat that hardware like

military weapons. That's why SpaceX own

IPL bar Chinese and Hong Kong investors.

Tesla builds about a third of its cars

in Shanghai. So if you merge a top US

defense contractor with a company that's

deep inside China and regulators on both

sides start demanding firewalls and

carveouts that's slow and expensive and

is the single biggest reason a full

close slips into 2027 even if the

announcement comes this summer. The

second is the pay package. Musk's giant

Tesla pay package has a change of

control clause and folding Tesla into

another company could wave the

operational milestones and key the award

off market cap instead. So, a merger

could trigger a slice of that package

without Tesla hitting the hard targets

it was supposed to hit. Expect lawsuits

over that. And expect them to shape how

the deal gets structured. Here's where I

land. The strategic logic for putting

these together holds. That part I'm

confident on. Whether the terms are good

for you, that's still unwritten. Both of

those are true at the same time. And

that's honest read. So, how do you hold

this as a Tesla shareholder? Three

things. The first is separate the

announcement from the close. Like I said

up top, I think the announcement could

come this summer, but the actual close

with all the regulatory and ITAR work is

a 2027 event. A summer headline doesn't

mean your shares convert next week. It

means the clock starts. The second is

the exchange ratio is the only number

that matters for you. Not the vision,

not the synergy slides. When the terms

drop, the premium and the share ratio

tell you immediately whether Tesla

holders get a fair deal or they got

handed table scraps. Until then, judging

it is guessing. The third is the shape

of what you don't. Whichever way it's

structured, a deal turns your Tesla

shares into shares of the combined

company. You'd own a piece of a roughly

$4 trillion everything company. Cars,

robots, rockets, Starlink, the AI lab,

and now Cursor's enterprise business.

Bigger and more diversified, but your

clean cash generating car company

becomes one division inside a heavier

cash burning hole. If you bought Tesla

specifically for cars and autonomy,

that's a real change in the thing you

own. And you should decide on, you know,

purpose whether you want it. So picture

2030 if the full version lands. One

company spanning Earth and orbit, robot

taxi fleets connected by satellite in

dozens of countries. Optimus robots

online everywhere through the same

network. Enterprise AI running on

compute that sits on the ground and in

space. That's an infrastructure play no

other company on the planet can build

because no one else owns all the pieces.

The prize is enormous. The path runs

straight through every risk. I just

walked through. So what do you actually

watch for? A few concrete things. The

first one, mark the late July to mid

August window. That's where both Grock

sessions and my own read line up for a

possible announcement. Ideally, I think

it's going to be around the Q2 earnings

call. If it's not June 22nd or June

28th, it could be August 11th. I'm

sorry, July 22nd or July 28th or August

11. If Elon's going to move this summer,

that's the zone. Second, watch both

stock prices into that window, not just

today's. SpaceX closed at 185 on

Thursday, but the deal gets set by where

Tesla and SpaceX trade on announcement

day and both will move. The whole timing

logic runs on SpaceX trading strong

before its first shares unlock. If the

stock holds up, the currency stays

strong and the case to move fast gets

stronger. Third, when terms get

announced, go straight to the exchange

ratio and the premium. Ignore the vision

talk for a minute. That one number tells

you whether this is good or bad for you.

Fourth, watch the regulators, not the

tweets. The first real sign of how

Washington and Beijing react to ITAR

hardware and a giant China footprint

under one roof tells you whether a full

close is even possible on the timeline

people want. And fifth, decide now which

company you actually want to own so

you're not making that call in a panic

the day terms drop. Clean Tesla or one

division of Elon's everything company.

Both are defensible. Just know which one

you're in for. So, listen. If you zoom

all the way out, what do you see? Elon

spent the last few months quietly

snapping the pieces into place. XCI into

SpaceX, the IPO, cursor two days ago,

Tesla's the last piece on the table. And

the man who controls all of it keeps

saying the word converging. My take, he

moves sooner rather than later,

announces into strength this summer, and

lets the close land in 2027 once the

legal and ITAR work is done. Whether

that's a win or a raw deal for you, I'm

not going to fake an answer. The

exchange ratio writes that story and it

has been written yet. I've watched this

guy long enough to know not to bet

against a direction, just the dates and

the terms. If this helped you see the

whole board instead of one corner of it,

please subscribe because I'm tracking

every step of this as it happens. Thank

you everybody. I think I'll see you in

the next one.