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Trump’s State of the Union: “High Chance of Crazy” | Pivot

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Trump’s State of the Union: “High Chance of Crazy” | Pivot

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0:00

The victimization that he has is so

0:02

massive, you know, that he's always

0:04

being victimized. Someone's always

0:06

him. That's his whole world

0:07

view.

0:13

Hi everyone, this is Pivot from New York

0:15

Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast

0:17

Network. I'm Cara Swisser.

0:19

>> And I'm Scott Galloway.

0:20

>> Scott, you're missing the blizzard. It's

0:23

outside. I should pull it back.

0:24

>> Is it a bomb cyclone?

0:26

>> It's something else. Can you see that or

0:28

not? I see a city being snowed on by an

0:31

old lady. Um

0:35

leisure

0:36

>> today. It's nuts. It's It is really

0:38

quite a blizzard. It's a blizzard. It's

0:40

what's happening here. So, just so you

0:42

know, as we tape, over 40 million people

0:44

in the US are under a blizzard warning,

0:46

by the way, and snow dropping 3 in an

0:48

hour in some locations. It really is

0:50

still going on here in New York. Um and

0:52

it's crazy. It's it's it's there's a lot

0:55

of snow happening. We all thought the

0:56

snow was over. Maybe I'll go take a a

0:58

walk in New York and co walk in the

1:00

Central Park and contemplate my life.

1:02

>> Do what I would do. Go to Shea Margo and

1:04

get up and establish eye contact

1:06

with a nice young Russian lady.

1:08

>> I'm getting an award tonight in

1:09

Brooklyn. I've got to go out there.

1:10

>> Of course you are.

1:11

>> I am. I'm getting the governor's award.

1:13

>> I'm getting an award tonight in

1:14

Brooklyn. That is the most Cara Swisser

1:16

thing ever said.

1:18

>> I'm getting an award in Brooklyn.

1:21

>> Yes, I have to go there. Yeah, it's for

1:23

the ambies.

1:24

>> What do you Okay. All right. Fine. I'll

1:25

play along. There's a podcast. What are

1:27

you getting an award for?

1:28

>> For being old from the governor's award.

1:30

>> The Oscars is a podcast. I thought that

1:32

was the vibes. What? What are those?

1:34

What is it called? The web those. No,

1:36

that's the Oh, the

1:37

>> the signal awards.

1:38

>> No, I don't know. Whatever. They're

1:40

trying to make

1:42

the mic. That's called That's what

1:43

podcast.

1:43

>> This is not the BAFTAs or the Oscars.

1:45

This is the podcast version. I'm getting

1:47

the great contributions to podcasting

1:50

award.

1:51

>> Really?

1:52

>> I guess here's something crazy going on.

1:53

Mexican security forces killed the

1:55

leader of the Halisco New Generation

1:56

Cartel and eight other cartel members in

1:58

a Mexican military operation aided by US

2:01

intelligence support and then they went

2:03

crazy these these cartels and they're

2:06

like they're in Porto Viarda like

2:08

Captain Stubing that's how I know Porto

2:09

Viarda from from Loveboat and they're

2:12

like bombing the whole place and all

2:13

these Americans have been either

2:15

diverted from going there or cannot

2:18

leave there not just Americans but lots

2:20

of people and they're like attacking

2:22

neighborhoods and this footage is really

2:24

something. All these burnt cars and it's

2:27

really something. I don't know what you

2:28

think about it.

2:30

>> I don't it the the issue is it's not I

2:35

mean it's violence but it feels like

2:36

it's more structural governance and an

2:39

economic issue that's been evolving for

2:41

nearly two decades and that is these

2:43

cartels are so inextricably integrated

2:46

into the economy and even the

2:48

government.

2:49

>> That's a really good point. And it it

2:51

it's not a traditional drug war in the

2:53

old sense. It's sort of fragmentation

2:56

and power vacuums. Right? After the

2:58

break up of more powerful consolidated

3:01

cartels, dozens of regional groups now

3:03

compete for territory

3:06

and trafficking routes and increasingly

3:08

diversified revenue streams. like things

3:10

like fuel theft, extortion,

3:13

uh human smuggling, elite I mean all

3:17

kinds of supposedly they've interrupted

3:18

the avocado supply chain and

3:22

often times the violence is about local

3:25

market control because Mexico is a big

3:27

economy rather than exports.

3:29

>> I guess that this is the reaction like

3:31

to to just show what they can do to

3:33

upset economics, right? I guess that's

3:35

what they're doing like with these. the

3:38

I mean the thing that does so much

3:41

damage to this

3:42

>> hands down my favorite place to travel

3:45

in the world and I'm very fortunate I

3:47

get to go to a lot of every year I go

3:49

with a group of guys to Tulum I love

3:51

Cabo I think San Miguel dea I just think

3:55

Mexico I also think it's the best

3:57

bargain in the world it's six-star

4:00

service and food and culture and vistas

4:04

for fourstar prices where in eur whereas

4:06

in Europe you get a lot of five star

4:07

service for six-star prices. The I

4:11

absolutely love the food, the culture,

4:13

the people. And what happens is

4:15

Americans immediately are like, "Oh, no.

4:16

I'm not going to travel there." And the

4:18

reality is most of this violence is coni

4:20

confined to what I'll call Mexican on

4:21

Mexican violence,

4:23

but it makes you think, should I?

4:26

>> These photos of tourists from, you know,

4:28

they're all in their hotels near beaches

4:30

and they're just showing enormous

4:31

amounts of fires. I guess there there

4:34

was one guy who was in his hotel room

4:35

and this guy these these two cartel

4:37

members are on motorcycles set fire to

4:40

like a version of a 7-Eleven there like

4:42

just in front of him and it was really

4:45

it's really interesting to experience it

4:47

this way like sort of online like hey I

4:50

was down here having a margarita and oh

4:53

yeah the drug cartels just bombed a car

4:56

in my

4:57

>> this does this does sort of signal a

4:59

shift because for the last for in recent

5:01

years Mexico's federal ederal strategy

5:03

and some people call it appeasement has

5:05

been more about containment over

5:06

confrontation. This is confrontation and

5:09

also we don't we don't want to have an

5:10

honest conversation. The US plays a role

5:12

here. There's a dimension here and that

5:14

is a lot of our firearms flow south. You

5:18

know what drives a lot of the profits

5:20

here is is US drug demand and fentanyl

5:23

production and trafficking have reshaped

5:26

the the supply chain and the economics

5:28

of the trade. lower input costs, much

5:30

higher potency, smaller shipping

5:32

volumes. So the the synthetic the power

5:36

or economic potency of synthetics have

5:38

changed the incentive structure. You

5:40

don't need large cocoa fields or massive

5:42

kind of drug smuggling convoys. You need

5:45

kind of like chemical precursors and in

5:49

distribution networks and enforcement

5:50

muscle. But this is, you know, Yeah. But

5:53

I'm let me be clear. I'm still going to

5:55

Mexico. I love Mexico.

5:57

Anyway, it's a black eye for Claudia

5:59

Shine Bomb, I have to say. Even if the

6:01

US helped her and stuff like that.

6:02

Anyway, we'll we'll move on.

6:04

>> Well, is it a black eye or does she show

6:05

some some some muscle here like

6:08

>> by by doing something about I don't

6:09

know. I don't know. We're going to keep

6:11

watching it and I hope people there are

6:13

safe. How is Resistant Unsubscribe

6:15

going? Some of you have been writing in

6:17

asking, let's check in on that for

6:19

alternatives to big tech that they're

6:20

unsubscribing from. I'm going to help

6:22

you out here. Uh, Scott, we asked David

6:24

Pierce, editor at large of The Verge and

6:26

co-host of The Vergecast, to give us

6:27

some recommendations. Everyone's going

6:29

to help you, Scott. Let's listen to what

6:31

David has to say.

6:32

>> If I was trying to get rid of big tech

6:34

apps in my life, my top three or four

6:38

recommendations would definitely start

6:39

with Proton. Proton is this company

6:42

started by a bunch of CERN scientists in

6:44

Switzerland that is very privacy

6:46

focused. And over the years, they've

6:47

actually built a series of apps that are

6:50

basically as good as everything you get

6:51

from Google. They have a drive, they

6:53

have an email, they have calendar, they

6:55

have all this stuff. The next one is

6:57

probably Signal, which is the messaging

6:58

app I think everyone should switch to.

7:01

There are things that are good about

7:02

WhatsApp even though it's owned by Meta,

7:03

but Signal is is a is an organization

7:06

run by the right kind of people who

7:07

believe in the right kind of things. And

7:08

then the third one is slightly more a

7:11

field, but I would say anyone who wants

7:12

to do smart home stuff in their life

7:14

right now should use Home Assistant. You

7:16

can use Alexa, you can use HomeKit, you

7:19

can use Google, but Home Assistant is

7:23

this very specific, hackable, open

7:27

system that you control much more

7:30

completely than you control any of those

7:31

other systems. Everything from the stuff

7:33

on your doorbell that's looking out at

7:35

the world and seeing people come up to

7:36

your door to like the baby monitors

7:39

inside of your house. Who runs that

7:40

stuff matters.

7:41

>> That was great. That was great. Those

7:42

are all three terrific recommendations.

7:45

So, what's going on, Scott?

7:47

>> Well, first off, it bears repeating. You

7:49

have been the biggest supporter of this

7:50

and I very much appreciate it. Um,

7:52

>> no problem.

7:53

>> But as we wind down February, so the two

7:56

objectives were what I call signal and

7:58

incentives. wanted to send a signal to

8:00

the American public that they have this

8:01

weapon hiding in plain sight and that

8:03

their economic decisions can have an

8:05

impact. I think we've I I think we've

8:08

hit that

8:10

on all levels. We've gotten just a ton

8:12

of media exposure, a ton of unsubscribes

8:15

people. I do think there's a large

8:16

percentage of the populace who now

8:17

realizes that economic strength is is

8:19

strength. The second objective was

8:21

incentives and that is to reconfigure

8:23

the incentives among big tech executives

8:24

to think twice before they enable or

8:26

facilitate. I'm not sure we've

8:28

accomplished that quite frankly. I my

8:30

friends have said it's a conversation on

8:32

product management teams but it's not a

8:34

board level conversation yet.

8:35

>> So the question is as we wind down

8:37

February what do we do? And I was

8:40

>> I was contacted by um uh the Dutch

8:43

historian Ruter Bregman who's been

8:45

instrumental in this.

8:46

>> Yeah. I'm a huge fan by the way. He's

8:48

only 37.

8:49

>> He's a lovely guy.

8:50

>> Yeah. And super smart. and he reached

8:53

out and said,

8:53

>> "FYI, for people who don't know, he

8:55

confronted the issue of billionaires at

8:56

Davos and got a lot of

8:58

>> He called him a bunch of tax avoiders."

8:59

He basically said, "None of you want to

9:01

talk about the real issue on the table,

9:02

which was tax avoidance." He's unafraid.

9:04

I love the guy. And anyways, I I love

9:07

authors and academics who are just sort

9:08

of unafraid.

9:10

>> And he contacted me and said, "You've

9:12

got the brand, the visibility, and the

9:14

momentum. We have this group of really

9:17

talented young people and some traction

9:18

in something called Quit GPT." and his

9:21

view is you need to consolidate and

9:23

focus on one and try and bring them

9:26

down. And so we're trying to figure out

9:29

um and I'm going to speak to you about

9:30

it and some other people, but I've had a

9:32

bunch of organizations,

9:34

a bunch of Congress people, elected

9:36

representatives all say, how do we

9:38

continue this and how do we make it more

9:39

effective? and it's gotten I did an I

9:43

did an analysis for us to get the number

9:45

of visitors unique visitors to our site

9:47

if we paid for it and we haven't paid a

9:49

dime would cost us somewhere between5

9:51

and $9 million.

9:53

It just shows the power of social media

9:56

um in terms of the platforms we've built

9:58

and the content stream we have uh and

10:00

how powerful podcasts are driving. But I

10:03

need to in the next several days figure

10:06

out what we do in March. Is it focusing?

10:09

Is it different media outlets? What is

10:10

it that that helps maintain this

10:12

momentum? Is it consolidating? There are

10:14

three or four similar movements around

10:16

the world. Do we all consolidate? I was

10:19

on a call with recorded ed and I was

10:20

like, if the British, the Russians, and

10:22

the Americans can come together to

10:24

defeat Germany, maybe we should figure

10:26

out a way to all consolidate and come

10:28

together. But the the two points are

10:31

distill down to a smaller number of

10:32

targets if you will and also do what you

10:34

said devel uh um structure some

10:37

full-time resources.

10:39

>> Yeah, I think so. So that that that that

10:41

you can they just tell you what to do,

10:43

right? Essentially there's there's a lot

10:44

of people who do that. One of the things

10:46

that's you know someone who I'm really

10:47

impressed with that maybe well she's a

10:49

Democratic uh she wrote a great book

10:51

about young people organizing Amanda

10:52

Litman who runs Run for Something and

10:54

it's to I had her on the podcast. She's

10:56

incredibly um you know strategic in

10:59

terms of figuring out what people need

11:01

to do, especially young people. It seems

11:02

like this is something you need to get

11:05

people who are actually a little more

11:06

you know that that really can focus

11:08

energetically. I don't mean

11:09

professionally like because there's a

11:11

lot of professional organizers that

11:13

don't really get stuff done. I think

11:14

you've really caught lightning in a

11:16

bottle here and you've got to keep doing

11:17

it. Anyway, we were we're still working

11:20

on an event uh Scott and I are and so

11:22

we're going to do that hopefully. Um and

11:25

uh and we'll see where it goes from

11:27

there. Um but let's uh let's move on to

11:29

the stuff we have to cover today. Uh

11:30

Donald Trump is increasing his global

11:32

tariff uh to 15% from 10% effective

11:35

immediately just days after the Supreme

11:37

Court struck down most of his global

11:39

tariffs. In a 6 to3 decision, the court

11:41

ruled that Trump exceeded his authority

11:42

when he invoked the Emergency Powers

11:44

Act. Trump called the decision

11:45

ridiculous and anti-American. He also

11:47

insulted the justices personally quite a

11:50

bit. Um that was, you know, it was worse

11:52

than that. He's just being a giant

11:53

baby. His latest workaround uses

11:56

a 1974 trade law that allows him to

11:58

impose temporary terrorists for 150

12:00

days. He just posted on True Social a

12:02

little while ago about the court

12:03

empowering him to use the terrorists in

12:04

a more powerful and obnoxious way. He's

12:07

just, you know, he's just the the the

12:09

court, let me be clear, was very clear

12:12

about what he was doing was illegal

12:14

essentially and that the Congress and

12:16

and and uh Gorsuch, the judge Gorsuch

12:19

had a really eviscerating take on how

12:22

Congress has sort of abregated its

12:23

responsibility. Uh they also are

12:25

questioning one of the other justices

12:28

also questioned whether the re who was

12:29

against it questions if the if the

12:32

refunds could happen. Um Scott Bessant

12:35

sort of is trying to hedge that bet

12:36

because they've got to give billions in

12:38

in many many billions in um I think 175

12:42

billion something like that in returns

12:45

to US businesses etc. Um what did you

12:49

think about this and the reaction? Um I

12:52

I I'll just let me let me actually read

12:55

through this stuff. We can discuss the

12:56

whole thing. The repercussions of this

12:58

tariff position. The EU just hit pause

13:00

on its US trade deal until it gets more

13:02

clarity on what Trump is doing.

13:03

Thousands of companies around the world

13:04

have already filed lawsuits challenging

13:06

the tariffs even before the Supreme

13:08

Court's ruling. So there's all a market

13:09

in that. Estimates suggest the

13:11

government could owe again more than 175

13:13

billion in refunds. The Supreme Court is

13:16

leaving the refund question in lower

13:17

courts. This is just Kavanagh who warned

13:19

the process. It's going to be a mess.

13:20

And it is. Let's let's listen to

13:22

Secretary Bessant uh what he said about

13:24

these payoffs. He spoke to Fox News

13:26

after the decision. This could take

13:28

months. This could take years to to

13:30

litigate and to get to the payouts. And

13:34

if there is a payout, it looks like it's

13:37

just going to be the ultimate corporate

13:39

welfare.

13:39

>> Oh, please, Scott. You took the money

13:41

from them. Give it back. Um, so talk

13:43

about what the next move is for

13:44

everybody and and and the reaction that

13:46

Trump had, which was was was very I

13:49

honestly thought it was dangerous given

13:51

the political uh heat right now,

13:53

especially for the Supreme Court

13:54

justices.

13:57

Well,

13:59

it's weird. Everyone says he's a loser.

14:01

There's no doubt it's a check on his

14:02

authority and, you know, a rejection or

14:06

a gag reflex. The the primary purpose or

14:09

power of Congress is the power of the

14:11

purse. They're the ones that are

14:12

supposed to I mean what you've had on a

14:15

metal level and Barry Goldwater back in

14:17

the 70s warned of this there's been a

14:18

slow abregation of power to the

14:22

executive branch and a lot of the power

14:24

was checked by norms not by laws and

14:27

then someone showed up and said the

14:29

norms I'm declaring wars and tariffs on

14:32

my own. And one of the reasons you've

14:34

seen such uh so many Republican Congress

14:37

people decide to retire is they're like

14:40

it's one thing to be in the minority and

14:41

know that you've been defenistrated or

14:43

neutered. It's another thing to be in

14:44

the majority and the speaker of the

14:46

house is not the speaker of the house.

14:47

He's the speaker of the white house.

14:48

He's there just to run rough shot over

14:50

us and pretend he represents Congress.

14:53

He doesn't. He represents the president.

14:56

And Republicans are like, "Wait, I

14:58

thought we were in charge and had some

14:59

say here and we don't." And these

15:01

tariffs would not have gone through.

15:03

there are enough Republicans against the

15:04

tariffs. You know, they're supposed to

15:05

be the free marketers. So, this is a

15:08

victory for uh co-equal branches of

15:11

government in Congress controlling the

15:14

purse. I think it's a huge victory for

15:16

the Supreme Court who was looking

15:18

increasingly like Trump's um you know,

15:22

trolls or not trolls, Trump's acolytes,

15:24

right? This does look like the

15:26

independence of the court. Six to three

15:28

is pretty resounding. In a weird way, I

15:31

thought this gave Trump an offramp from

15:35

what was clearly a failed economic

15:36

policy that I thought the economy and

15:39

the stock market would actually probably

15:42

um go up. What was interesting is the

15:44

the reaction was muted. The market was

15:46

slightly up, but now it's looking like

15:48

he's going to use another provision 122

15:50

which only lasts 150 days. But it's more

15:53

inconsistency. And we've said this for a

15:55

long time. More than more than the

15:56

tariffs themselves, the most damaging

15:58

thing to American trade policy is

16:00

inconsistency. Nobody no small business

16:02

knows how to plan their business against

16:05

what will be tariffs or not tariffs.

16:07

What I've been tracking, I was working

16:09

with a hedge fund trying to find tariff

16:12

claims. So if you're Mercedes-Benz of

16:15

the United States and you paid 20

16:16

million tariffs, you could at one point

16:18

potentially buy those claims for 10

16:21

cents on the dollar. Now, those have

16:23

accelerated to 20 to 40 cents on the

16:25

dollar, but the reason they're not

16:26

trading at 60 or 80 cents on the dollar

16:28

is the administration and complexity of

16:30

potentially getting the money back. I

16:31

think that's a red herring. I just don't

16:34

>> I think if if they collected this money

16:36

easily, I don't see why they can't

16:37

reimburse it easily. It was all done

16:39

digitally. So, I don't I don't buy that

16:40

argument. But, it's more indecision.

16:43

It's more sclerotic decision-m where

16:45

people can't plan their business again.

16:47

And what you see is just a continued

16:50

reconfiguration of the global supply

16:52

chain around the US where we have

16:54

massively

16:56

benefited over you know someone brought

16:58

up the notion the very simple notion

17:00

actually I think it was Justin Wers that

17:01

said we have a trade deficit in the form

17:04

of dollars but we have a trade surplus

17:07

in the form of stuff. So the example is

17:09

I have a trade deficit with my barber

17:11

but my barber makes me look just

17:14

dreamy for very little money. So it's a

17:16

good trade and US trade policy while we

17:20

give more paper money to them we get so

17:22

much because of the strength of the

17:25

dollar is an economic imbeile like he's

17:28

just he's seeing things like he learned

17:29

economics in fourth grade and that's

17:31

where he's stuck right

17:33

>> but if you if you if you if you export

17:35

$100 with Nvidia chips to Germany in

17:38

exchange for $100 of a Mercedes G Wagon

17:41

they operate at 10 points operating

17:43

margin and get seven times you IBIT

17:46

does. So they get $70.

17:48

We operate uh Nvidia operates at like 60

17:51

points operating margin and trades at

17:53

40. We get $2,400.

17:56

I mean, if there's any asymmetry here of

18:00

who is who has disproportionately

18:02

benefited from global trade, it's been

18:04

the US. We've been the big winner.

18:06

>> So this is stuck in Trump's brain

18:08

forever because he's just not honestly

18:10

he's not that smart, right? like I know

18:12

just in a in a very basic way he has

18:14

this has had in this brain and then he

18:16

has these facilitators and by the way

18:17

Scott Besset knows better of course he

18:19

knows exactly what you know and he's I

18:22

don't know what his game is I mean it's

18:23

he's talk about tarnishing a reputation

18:25

that he had that was pretty decent um

18:28

but one of the one of the things that's

18:30

problematic is that he's operating sort

18:32

of economics for dummies or something

18:35

like something because he sticks in his

18:37

brain that this is the way things go and

18:39

I I I think most people don't think

18:41

about it in in in a complex way. I think

18:44

the two things that I think about again

18:46

were these that the Supreme Court did

18:48

him a favor here, right? That got him he

18:50

got to try out his stupid ideas.

18:53

>> He seems to be doubling down.

18:54

>> He's doubling down in a really demented

18:57

way and the personal stuff that he was

18:59

attacking them with. And you know,

19:00

apparently

19:01

>> families should be ashamed.

19:02

>> Families and Barrett, Coney Barrett and

19:06

Gorsuch, I think. um just really strange

19:10

just really really strange and they were

19:12

all they were saying was pointing out

19:14

the obvious which was this is something

19:16

Congress should do it's something

19:17

Congress is job is to do and he just

19:20

doesn't feel any restraints on himself

19:23

and that's what it is and it's like old

19:25

man combined with someone who's already

19:27

an egoomaniac and a narcissist combined

19:30

with more old man combined with he gets

19:32

to do what he wants this term and the

19:34

victimization that he has is so massive

19:37

you know that he's always being

19:38

victimized. Someone's always

19:40

him. That's his whole world view that

19:42

it's just we're being governed by a guy

19:44

who just again didn't is a victim.

19:48

Thinks he's a victim. Anyway, uh we'll

19:50

see where does it go from here very

19:52

briefly.

19:53

>> Well, on Cowsi, they're saying it's a

19:55

76% chance the court orders a tariff

19:58

refund before 2027. So, it does feel

20:01

like he's running out of options. This

20:03

section 122 has a maximum 150 days. The

20:07

Supreme Court does seem pretty resolute

20:09

on this 63. I don't think he's going to

20:11

lot get a lot of support from even

20:12

Republicans who are Congress like, "Oh,

20:14

wait. We have meaning again. You mean we

20:15

get to actually have input? You actually

20:17

have to bring this to us." And and if if

20:19

he thinks these tariffs have merit and

20:21

they're good for the economy, then take

20:23

it to Congress and work out a deal with

20:25

them. That's that's what they're there

20:27

for.

20:27

>> He can't get it passed because he can't

20:28

get it passed the way he wants

20:29

>> because he can't justify it

20:30

intellectually or economically. Right.

20:32

Well,

20:33

>> this is the the amount of money the

20:36

prosperity we have recognized from

20:38

global trade. Now, granted

20:40

he his some of his instincts are

20:42

correct. We had an asymmetric

20:44

relationship. We were getting taken

20:45

advantage of in my view in terms of our

20:47

relationship with China. They you know

20:50

they they steal our IP and then sell us

20:52

stuff at 60 cents on the dollar. We are

20:54

not good at looking after people who are

20:56

on the wrong end of global trade. Right.

20:58

>> But he's never doing that. He just tells

21:00

them he's here for them. But then he

21:02

doesn't actually do anything for them.

21:05

>> And then if you want to look at the

21:06

manufacturing sector that was supposed

21:08

to be rejuvenated, that has not

21:10

happened. What has happened

21:12

>> is that the tourist industry which

21:13

employs 12 million people versus the

21:16

manufacturing industry which employs 11

21:18

million is taking a real hit cuz

21:21

Canadians are thinking, "No, I'm not

21:23

going to Disneyland or Las Vegas this

21:24

year." Did you see that story about that

21:26

British woman who was put into ice for 6

21:28

weeks for, you know,

21:30

>> checking your people have to turn over

21:33

their phone and they're being asked for

21:34

their password? It's like, that.

21:35

I'll go to I'll go to Capri or I'll go

21:37

to Buenosar, you know, I'll do something

21:40

else. I would think this is a I would

21:42

think every tourism board in the world

21:44

is like come here. We'll take your

21:45

money.

21:45

>> Okay, Scott, let's go on a quick break.

21:47

When we come back, get ready for Trump's

21:49

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24:20

>> Scott, we're back. As we record, we're

24:22

one day away from Trump's State of the

24:24

Union speech. This will appear on the

24:25

day of it. He's walking in with a 60%

24:28

disapproval rating. According to a new

24:30

Washington Post ABC Ipsos poll, House

24:33

Minority Leader Hakee Jeff is urging

24:35

Democrats either attend in silent

24:37

defiance or skip the speech. And a

24:39

growing number of Democrats plan to

24:40

attend a counter rally on the National

24:42

Mall called the people's state of the

24:43

union. And uh Virginia Governor Abigail

24:46

Spanber is delivering the official

24:47

Democratic response. It's a good choice.

24:49

Um what do you think of this?

24:52

>> I I don't think he quite frank I I'm

24:54

wondering if that's if and when we bomb

24:57

Iran. I don't

24:59

>> I don't think he has a lot to I I don't

25:01

know.

25:02

>> Apparently

25:03

it apparently he's going to talk about

25:05

how manufacturing is coming back to the

25:07

US like tomorrow. He's sort of like an

25:08

Elon promise.

25:10

>> I think the screenshots here are going

25:11

to be really hilarious. The audience

25:12

reaction even I think there's even going

25:14

to be some Republicans who are kind of

25:15

like, "Oh yeah, I clap." Uh yeah, that's

25:18

not

25:19

>> Yeah,

25:20

>> that's not that's not working here. I I

25:23

think it's going to be very interesting,

25:25

but I feel as if he's, you know, they're

25:28

like, "Okay, how do we turn chicken

25:29

into chicken salad here?"

25:31

>> Yeah. They're going to to Vance

25:32

apparently gave an interview where he's

25:34

talking about how we're going to

25:35

suddenly have factories everywhere. Like

25:37

it's all made up. Literally, it feels

25:38

like, you know, there was a really

25:39

interesting meme online, Elon promising

25:41

autonomy for like 10 years, like

25:44

tomorrow, next week. They're going to

25:46

try to say everything's great with the

25:47

economy, which to me, when Biden did

25:49

that, was so uneffective when people

25:51

know that's not the case. I think this

25:53

these these numbers are just astonishing

25:56

that he keeps doubling down, right, on

25:58

these 60% disapproval is so high. I

26:01

don't think you I think it was this

26:03

number right after the January 6th

26:06

attack on the capital. I mean, I think

26:08

that's where we are right now. And um

26:10

it'll be interesting. I think there's a

26:12

high chance of crazy like that he does

26:14

something nuts.

26:15

>> Just goes unchained.

26:16

>> Unchained like he says something kooky

26:18

or he loses his words. I wouldn't get up

26:21

there if I were him. You know, of course

26:23

he's going to have pancake makeup caked

26:26

on his hand. By the way, whoever is

26:28

doing that, I can tell you there are

26:30

Hollywood people that can make that hand

26:31

look better. I keep looking at it. I'm

26:33

like, what is his like secretary doing

26:35

it or, you know, with a bunch of like

26:37

like cheap makeup? It's really weird. I

26:40

feel like they could do a better job.

26:41

>> It's the same person that came up with

26:42

the tariff strategy.

26:43

>> Right. Exactly. It's Peter Navaro

26:45

slabbering, you know, Mac.

26:47

>> Hold your hand out.

26:48

>> It's not even

26:49

>> My niece works My niece works at

26:51

Sephora. This is how you do it.

26:53

>> But seriously, I think it is a good

26:55

chance of crazy. good can't like a high

26:57

chance of crazy like something. Yeah, I

26:59

wouldn't do it if I were him. I'd find

27:00

some dumb excuse not to do it. But he he

27:03

he's now a heat seeeking me missile.

27:06

>> Have you noticed how much he's been like

27:08

appearing like he keeps appearing

27:10

everywhere? I don't know. I just feel

27:12

like it's bad. And speaking of which, I

27:15

think it's we'll see what happens. But

27:17

the at the very least if he doesn't say

27:19

something crazy, poop his pants or or

27:22

lose his words and it'll be fine, I

27:24

guess. and doesn't just lie too much.

27:27

Um, I don't know. What should the

27:28

Democrats do? Just show up and say

27:30

nothing, stare angrily?

27:32

>> I think you just I think you just sit

27:34

there and kind of look like, "Okay,

27:36

>> are you kidding me?

27:37

>> This dude has lost his shit." I I don't

27:39

know what they should do. I don't think

27:40

they

27:42

uh

27:43

you know, uh, acquaint yourself like the

27:46

elected leaders you are and just uh

27:49

polite, you not go. The Supreme Court

27:52

has to go the all of them, right? Don't

27:54

you think? Don't you think all of them

27:55

have to go?

27:57

>> Yeah. As do our elected representatives.

27:59

I I just hate the idea of whoever's

28:01

president, half the house doesn't show

28:03

up. I I don't know.

28:04

>> I think there's a certain decorum. It's

28:06

the State of the Union. Show up. You

28:08

don't have to smile. You don't have to

28:09

applaud. But yeah, I think you show up.

28:10

And of course,

28:12

>> they're aliens. Maybe that's what he's

28:13

going to do. I don't know. Something.

28:14

He's going to have to have any jazz

28:15

hands and he shouldn't use his hands too

28:18

much. Let's just say

28:18

>> I'm just praying that the teleprompter

28:20

goes down and he goes full apeshit

28:22

crazy. I hope that it's

28:24

>> I hope it's too gin and tonics for drunk

28:26

uncle.

28:26

>> No, but he doesn't drink. Remember, he

28:28

doesn't drink. Remember his brother died

28:30

of alcoholism.

28:31

>> But other than that, Cara, how is his

28:33

brother doing?

28:34

>> What?

28:36

>> Dead. All right. Um

28:37

>> that's like, do you ever run into a

28:39

friend and you ask how their dad is and

28:40

you didn't know? Like, oh, my dad passed

28:42

a year ago. Oh, but wait, other than

28:43

that, how's it going?

28:45

>> That's always my response.

28:46

>> You never do that.

28:47

>> I totally do that. What are you supposed

28:48

to say? People, what I find is people

28:50

don't go, oh, I'm sorry. All right. It's

28:51

like, well, dude, he died a year ago.

28:53

I'm fine. I think you make a joke out of

28:54

it.

28:55

>> Still okay. All right. Well, my mom's

28:57

still living. Just remember that. So,

28:59

all right.

29:00

>> Lucky.

29:00

>> Lucky. She's good. I got her a lazy boy.

29:03

>> I got her.

29:05

>> Still good.

29:06

>> That's the greatest innovation in

29:07

Hollywood. It's not AI. It's lazy boys

29:09

in theater.

29:10

>> It stands up now. It's so good. I took

29:11

her to lunch. I I lifted her right out

29:14

of that chair. Stuck her in. Anyway, she

29:16

loves her lazy boy. She loves her.

29:18

>> Yeah.

29:18

>> I'm just saying I'm getting you one.

29:20

They're very nice now. Anyway, um

29:22

>> I want one with wheels where I can just

29:23

fly down the avenue.

29:25

>> No, we're going to keep you in a room

29:26

and that's going to be the end of it.

29:28

So, this is one I've been really excited

29:30

to talk to you about. President Trump

29:31

has called on Netflix to fire board

29:33

member Susan Rice or quote the

29:35

consequences after Rice said Democrats

29:37

would push for corporate accountability.

29:40

The DOJ is investigating Netflix

29:42

proposed takeover of Warner Brothers and

29:43

whether the deal may quote substantially

29:46

lessen competition. and Paramount saying

29:48

there's quote no statutory impediment to

29:51

closing its deal for Warner Brothers

29:52

after clearing a US antitrust waiting

29:54

period. This is not true. Uh regulators

29:57

could still stop to sue it. Of course,

29:58

there's the EU and other uh other ways.

30:01

This is not This was a press release.

30:03

Meanwhile, a group of Democratic

30:05

senators is threatening to investigate

30:07

Paramount, seeking information on the

30:08

company's contacts with the Trump

30:10

administration. as we tape the seven-day

30:12

window for Warner Brothers to talk with

30:14

Paramount is nearing an end at 11:59 PM

30:18

on Monday. So, talk about this this

30:21

Trump thing. I mean, Susan Rice, like

30:23

what I mean, maybe it'll have an

30:25

implication. I don't know. It's just

30:26

weird. You can't make like he had tried

30:28

to get Lisa Monaco from stopping working

30:30

at Microsoft. Microsoft just ignored him

30:32

essentially and she's still working

30:33

there. Um, do you think it's important?

30:36

What do what do what do you think here?

30:38

Yeah, it's it's incredibly socialist.

30:41

Capital markets function on the

30:42

assumption that boards are accountable

30:44

to shareholders, that regulatory

30:46

authority is exercised through formal

30:48

channels, and that political powers and

30:50

uses leverage and private corporate

30:51

disputes.

30:53

And you know, when those lines erode,

30:56

you introduce political risk and into

30:58

ordinary governance decisions.

31:01

Capitalism is supposed to be regulated

31:03

competition. and you a guy who just has

31:07

a history of bankrupting casinos and

31:10

leaving a stream of unpaid

31:11

subcontractors

31:14

uh you know who got rich through a grift

31:16

monetizing the White House is not the

31:18

person to be telling companies it's just

31:21

it's totally anathema to the way America

31:23

has built its economy

31:25

you know when political actors treat

31:28

corporate boards as cultural back uh

31:30

battlegrounds you shift you shift from

31:34

kind of rules-based capitalism to

31:36

personalitydriven capitalism. Investors

31:40

investors can price regulation, but they

31:42

struggle to price discretionary

31:43

political targeting. So, does this mean

31:46

every time the administration changes,

31:48

we invest in companies that are have

31:50

Democratic board members versus

31:52

Republican

31:53

>> board members? And practically, if

31:56

presidents start leaning on boards, it

31:58

invites Congress, regulators, and state

32:00

officials to do the same. And that's not

32:01

market discipline.

32:03

That's

32:03

>> we won't give you this unless you get

32:05

rid of this person. I mean, so far

32:08

>> again, it didn't work with Lisa Monaco

32:10

at Microsoft. They just basically

32:12

ignored the request.

32:14

>> And I think so I was with some Netflix

32:15

people. I went to the BAFTA awards last

32:17

night and I was

32:19

>> you went to BAFTA. Hello. Where are the

32:22

lead? What did you wear?

32:24

>> Oh, I I I did know BAFTA was a big deal

32:26

and I showed up just with a blazer and

32:28

then Ted Sandos came up to me in a tux.

32:30

I'm like, "Oh god, I up."

32:31

>> Yeah. Okay.

32:32

>> Um,

32:32

>> yeah, he was there.

32:34

>> Yeah. Uh, but everyone, yeah, it was

32:36

really, really fancy. I didn't a friend

32:38

of mine took me to dinner and said, "Do

32:39

you want to go to the BAFA Awards?" I

32:40

said, "Yeah."

32:41

>> Wow.

32:41

>> And anyways, but

32:45

they will I I have no inside information

32:47

here, but I know what smart class act

32:51

management is. I am sure if they haven't

32:53

already, they'll put out a statement of

32:54

support for Susan Rice. And this is

32:59

this has become so obviously he's now

33:02

supporting um Paramount, but I talked to

33:06

some Netflix. I think that at this point

33:09

these so much testosterone has gotten

33:11

involved in this. If you had asked

33:13

either the Ellison's or Ted Sando 6

33:16

months ago, are you willing you ever pay

33:18

$82 billion for Warner? They'd say, no

33:20

way. It's not worth that in any

33:22

world. But because Zazlav, to his

33:24

credit, is not a great operator, but

33:26

he's an outstanding investment banker,

33:28

he has played them off each other and

33:30

convinced both of them to overpay. If

33:33

the Ellison's end up getting this, and

33:35

Netflix doesn't, my prediction is that

33:37

Netflix stock is up 10 to 20%. Because

33:40

with $80 billion, Netflix can create

33:42

just a ton of content, new

33:44

verticals, new markets, new subscription

33:45

plans. They'll be able to at this point

33:48

I think it would almost be better for

33:50

them if they lost and they just sue the

33:52

out of Paramount and the government

33:55

and basically create keep Hollywood in a

33:58

state of flux because

33:59

>> this non non

34:01

>> and they're the winner. They they'll

34:02

keep on humming. I mean that company's

34:04

firing on all 12,000 cylinders with

34:07

>> content production all over the world

34:09

and just you know they're sort of the

34:11

default, right? You have to even in the

34:13

resist and unsubscribe people would say

34:15

I'm going down to one streaming media

34:18

platform and if you go down to one who

34:19

do you choose

34:20

>> absolutely

34:21

>> you choose Netflix right it's

34:22

>> Netflix yeah

34:23

>> everyone else is heated seats and car

34:25

stereoss they're they're the engine in

34:27

the car itself they're the chassis so to

34:30

speak

34:30

>> or Disney right because it's

34:32

>> you have young kids and you don't watch

34:34

TV maybe well I guess

34:35

>> I watch a lot of TV you're wrong you're

34:37

wrong I watch it at night

34:39

>> but but yeah it it's

34:42

What you're going to see here, I think,

34:44

is that even if the Ellison's get it, if

34:48

Netflix could block the closing of the

34:52

acquisition until the next

34:54

administration, they might be able to

34:55

overturn it because

34:56

>> that's right.

34:57

>> The whole point of capitalism is it's

34:59

pretty basic in in M&A. Whoever shows up

35:02

with more money gets approved by

35:04

shareholders and then it has to survive

35:06

regulatory review. The president has no

35:08

role in any of that. That's not as what

35:10

he that's not what he's there for. He's

35:12

the whole point of government is we let

35:14

our thoroughbreds run. We have

35:17

antitrust. We have regulatory concerns.

35:19

We have cifhious security concerns. But

35:21

you're supposed guess what the American

35:24

corporation is the second best

35:28

performing organizations in history only

35:30

behind the US military. We create these

35:33

these out of control full body contact

35:36

violence, not a ton of regulation, low

35:38

regulation rules, regulated competition

35:41

produces unprecedented profits,

35:43

prosperity, and innovation. And all of a

35:46

sudden, you have a a failed rich kid

35:49

deciding who should own what.

35:51

>> Yeah. Exactly. So, one of the things

35:53

that I has is really struck me. Look,

35:55

Netflix will be fine without this. I

35:57

think they really want it now. You know

35:58

what I mean? I think they are

36:00

>> ego's involved now.

36:01

Not just ego, but it's actually could be

36:03

good for them, too. Right. This gives

36:05

>> I don't agree. I think with that money,

36:06

they could build a bigger business on

36:07

their own

36:08

>> possibly. Right. You're right. You're

36:09

absolutely right. So, they'll be fine.

36:11

Whatever. And in slowing everything

36:13

down, they've created a slowdown for

36:15

everybody, which is always good for them

36:17

because they're faster, right? They were

36:19

lapping Hollywood for years. That I sat

36:21

there, I was like, why are you letting

36:22

Netflix lap you all for years and years

36:24

and years? So, they have that ability to

36:27

do that. And they've always stayed

36:28

fresh. They're a very fresh company even

36:30

as old as they are comparatively, right?

36:32

So, they're still they remain fresh and

36:34

relevant. Um, and people are learning

36:36

how to do what they do, but it's taken

36:38

forever for Hollywood to do so. And one

36:40

of the things that just gets me is one,

36:42

the efforts of Paramount are one, to run

36:45

a shitty business and show that you

36:47

cannot do content, whether it's over at

36:48

CBS News or Losing Taylor Sheridan.

36:52

>> Oh, come on. Landmen.

36:53

>> The world before the world before HR. I

36:56

love Landmen.

36:57

>> Okay. I know you do.

36:58

>> A bunch of men drilling where they're

36:59

not supposed to drill. People die and

37:00

then they pay him off and everything's

37:02

better.

37:02

>> How could you How could you ruin 60

37:04

Minutes? What a bunch of idiots.

37:06

I'm sorry. Like, how could you how could

37:08

you get Anderson Cooper to walk out?

37:11

He's such a polite young man. Like, it's

37:13

just like you're a bunch of dummies. I'm

37:15

sorry. I really I like some of you, but

37:17

seriously, this is rid It comes from the

37:20

top. I'm sorry. And getting daddy to pay

37:22

for it is really depressing on so many

37:25

levels. Like, so sad. It's like sad rich

37:27

kid. And they and they're going to Let

37:30

me just tell you, guess who's coming for

37:32

you. You think the Democrats won't do

37:34

anything? You are wrong, Paramount. They

37:36

are coming at you. If they win these

37:38

elections, I don't It's going to be a

37:41

long time before you get your hands on

37:43

CNN. It's going to be a long time before

37:44

you get your hands on any of this. And

37:46

then let's stop at European regulators.

37:49

Like, and by the way, now people in

37:52

Hollywood don't all love Netflix. That

37:53

is 100% clear. But now suddenly a lot of

37:56

Hollywood people like Mark Ruffalo very

37:58

liberal is is pushing back against James

38:01

Cameron who's cuz he loves theaters

38:02

whatever. Um there's now like a a

38:06

growing like hey leave Netflix alone

38:08

like which is incredible because they're

38:10

so like bossy to most of Hollywood. So

38:13

Paramount, you have managed to shoe

38:15

yourself in every foot possible, every

38:17

toe in the way you've conducted this and

38:19

just throw the money at it as you should

38:21

have done in the first place and just

38:23

take daddy's money and and buy it, but

38:26

you're still not going to get it easily,

38:27

especially because you're stressing all

38:29

this closeness with the Trump

38:31

administration. It's not going to end

38:32

well for you in three or four months.

38:34

That's my thought. In the first Star

38:36

Wars, uh, Jedi Obi-Wan Kenobi is on the

38:39

Millennium Falcon and he feels a

38:41

disturbance in the Force and he has to

38:43

sit down and he goes, "It's as if

38:45

millions of people just screamed and

38:48

then nothing." And he's referring to the

38:50

Death Star which builds a capability to

38:53

destroy planets and Darth Vader orders

38:55

the destruction of Aldderon.

38:57

You are going to see if the Ellison's

39:00

get if the Ellison's close, if Paramount

39:03

closes on Warner Brothers, you are going

39:06

to hear a scream from the creative

39:07

community of which they're not even

39:09

aware of.

39:10

>> Mhm.

39:11

>> Agreed.

39:12

>> You have a melting ice cube in Paramount

39:15

and then you'll get this the scale.

39:17

They'll overpay. At this point, they're

39:20

both overpaying. Whoever gets it is

39:21

overpaying. And then father Ellison is

39:24

gonna go, "Okay, the only way we can get

39:26

anything resembling a return is to

39:28

reduce cost by 40%." The fact that SAG

39:31

After the Writers Guild are not hair on

39:36

fire about AI, you want to see AI come

39:40

to an industry and destroy the labor. Oh

39:44

my god. Because Ted Sand, whatever you

39:46

think about Netflix, they like

39:47

Hollywood.

39:49

>> They still hire makeup artists. They

39:50

still they still do things kind of I

39:53

don't want to call it,

39:54

>> you know, the old way. I I think with

39:56

CBS they're like, "All right, we have to

39:59

make some bold take some risk because

40:01

this thing is just going away slowly."

40:04

>> Dink way. I get it. They I have a list

40:06

of that.

40:08

>> It's hard to defend the execution to

40:10

date. They had to take some risks here.

40:12

I wouldn't have taken a lot of risk with

40:14

60 minutes. Yes. Now, I would have

40:15

waited until this deal was over and

40:18

maybe hired a competent person, but

40:20

that's a different story. Anyway, um

40:22

let's go on a quick break and we come

40:23

back. Investors want protection from AI.

40:28

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for anything.

41:25

Scott, we're back. This is really

41:26

interesting because you've talked about

41:28

the the problems that companies not AI

41:30

are having, but Wall Street is taking

41:32

interest in a new category called Halo

41:34

companies. Heavy assets, low

41:36

obsolescence. Business is seen as

41:38

largely immune to disruption from AI.

41:40

Really interesting. S&P 500 sectors for

41:43

industrials, materials, utilities, and

41:44

consumer staples have marched ahead in

41:46

the last month. Companies like

41:47

McDonald's and Exon Mobile are taking a

41:49

win as investors try to take cover from

41:51

potential AI disruption. Now, you've

41:54

said a lot of these companies have

41:55

suffered because AI has taken most of

41:58

the gains in the stock market. Talk

42:00

about this. This was a story in the Wall

42:02

Street Journal, but it's something we've

42:03

discussed before. It was the other 400

42:05

companies, not the first the top seven

42:08

or whatever.

42:10

>> There's been a rotation out of AI

42:12

companies into what are traditionally

42:14

thought of as defense stocks like

42:15

Proctor and Gamble or Caterpillar, but

42:18

they have been run up. And so what

42:20

you've had is you've had this weird

42:21

phenomena where there's been a pretty

42:24

serious like multi-trillion dollar

42:26

destruction in the private and public

42:28

market valuations of the companies most

42:29

tightly associated with AI whether it's

42:32

Nvidia or Microsoft or you know they

42:35

have all gotten hit pretty hard. What's

42:38

also interesting though and then there's

42:39

been a rotation into quote unquote the

42:41

defensive guys that are considered AI

42:43

immune. Goldman Sachs put together an AI

42:46

immune index. the opportunity in all of

42:48

this and where I'm actually thinking of

42:50

investing is that while AI stocks have

42:53

come down, you know, the there's still a

42:56

massive fear that they're going to

42:59

destroy entire sectors. And the sectors

43:01

that are ground zero for this fear right

43:03

now are traditional SAS companies,

43:06

Salesforce, Service Now, um Adobe. The

43:10

view is since this new innovation from

43:13

um clude I'm sorry from claude that

43:16

those businesses that someone will just

43:18

automatically put in a prompt and all of

43:20

a sudden overnight no longer need

43:22

Salesforce for their CRM for for their

43:25

salespeople and that overnight

43:27

Salesforce is going to go away. I mean

43:28

Salesforce and Adobe and Service Now

43:30

these companies are off somewhere

43:32

between 40 and 70%. These companies and

43:35

by the way there's absolutely no

43:38

evidence whatsoever. voted last week.

43:40

Yeah.

43:41

>> So, these companies are growing at

43:42

double digits. Meanwhile, some of these

43:44

old economy companies that are growing

43:46

at single digits are trading at much

43:48

higher multiples. So, I would argue that

43:52

one of the biggest opportunities in the

43:54

market right now is the traditional SAS

43:56

companies as a multiple on their free

43:58

cash flow. They

43:59

>> This is beyond these Halo companies,

44:01

beyond the McDonald's.

44:02

>> No, I think the Halo guys quite frankly

44:04

are overpriced right now.

44:06

>> Oh, interesting. They're low growth

44:08

companies trading at exceptional pees.

44:11

Meanwhile, I mean, keep in mind if you

44:14

think so at all my companies, we've had

44:17

Salesforce.

44:18

I don't care if some kid if some kid

44:20

came to me and said, "Okay, we can kind

44:22

of replicate Salesforce with a

44:24

thoughtful prompt into anthropic." I'd

44:27

be like, "Okay, we're going to have to

44:29

retrain everybody on a new UI."

44:32

these companies get so they have client

44:34

service, they have events, they have

44:36

they have worked out millions of bugs

44:39

over a couple years. I get invited to

44:42

Dreamforce if I spend enough money. The

44:44

thought that all of a sudden people are

44:46

just going to strip out Adobe or Figma

44:50

or Service Now is just these companies

44:53

are so deeply embedded. You can call it

44:56

technical debt, you can call it

44:57

switching costs, whatever it is. In

44:59

addition, if if AI can actually take the

45:03

coding down to something meaningless,

45:04

then what will happen, I think, is that

45:07

these SAS companies will reduce their

45:09

cost by 10 or 20%. Which gives you their

45:13

actual coding and technical costs are

45:14

only 10 or 20% of their revenue. The

45:16

other 80% is marketing, branding, client

45:18

service, design, events is so that shows

45:22

you where the value is. They'll do the

45:24

same thing and then pass on those

45:26

savings. So you might see some mild

45:28

margin compression, but I think the

45:29

flight into quote unquote defensive

45:31

stocks. I think that trade has been

45:33

overdone.

45:35

And I think there's one of the biggest I

45:37

haven't been able to find value

45:38

anywhere. I've been selling, not buying

45:41

for the first time in a long time. I

45:43

look at these SAS companies. There is

45:44

absolutely no evidence anywhere that a

45:47

large corporation is giving up Adobe or

45:49

Salesforce and putting in new prompts

45:51

into AI. So I think that threat has been

45:54

massively

45:56

over overdone. Also I think the rotation

45:59

into these more traditional low growth

46:00

companies quite frankly I think those

46:03

guys are really overvalued right now.

46:05

These are low growth companies trading

46:07

at a tech growth multiples.

46:10

>> Yeah I would agree. I think you're

46:12

absolutely right. I think that's a

46:13

really interesting take on that. The it

46:15

is interesting that people are looking

46:16

beyond AI right like where are the

46:19

opportunities and I think I think your

46:20

argument is excellent. So, what are you

46:22

buying?

46:23

>> Oh, I'm going to put together probably a

46:25

basket of Figma, Adobe, Salesforce,

46:29

maybe Service Now, but I look at those

46:33

companies and unless there's a collapse

46:35

in their business model, do you know how

46:37

hard it is to get rid of I remember, you

46:40

know, these companies are so deeply

46:42

embedded. I remember we were paying

46:44

$25,000 a year for my terminal for

46:46

Bloomberg and we thought, okay, let's go

46:48

to Thompson Reuters. It's cheaper.

46:50

Bloomberg is so tightly integrated into

46:53

your life if you're managing a hedge

46:54

fund. Even messaging the way we message

46:58

people in the hedge fund over time,

46:59

Scott things do get replaced over time,

47:02

right?

47:03

>> I think what's going to happen here is

47:04

margin compression

47:05

>> a box if you remember a lot of this

47:08

>> but they'll I think they'll cut costs. I

47:10

mean I still think I mean for example

47:13

Salesforce I actually think is really

47:14

brilliant branding. They have built some

47:16

of the tallest buildings in every one of

47:18

their markets in the world. There

47:20

there's probably if they needed to quite

47:22

a bit of cost they could cut and pass on

47:24

to their consumers. These are smart

47:26

people. What they might say is if they

47:29

see a threat they might say oh

47:31

Salesforce is now6x per seat versus X

47:34

per seat. These are smart well-run

47:37

management teams. Uh and by the way no

47:40

evidence whatsoever that any of this is

47:43

impacting any of those companies.

47:44

>> Yes. That is the bigger point. All

47:46

right. Scott's going different than

47:47

Halo. He's going, "What are we going to

47:49

call them? S not dead software."

47:52

>> I would say abandoned. Abandoned. It's

47:56

like that little monkey who was who was

47:58

rejected by his his family and found a

48:01

plushy. It's the plushy strategy.

48:04

>> I knew you watched that.

48:05

>> I can't stop watching that little

48:07

monkey.

48:07

>> I know.

48:08

>> I can't stop watching.

48:09

>> Did you see the one

48:10

>> his mom rejected him and they gave him a

48:12

plushy?

48:13

>> I know. But did you see the one where

48:14

they it was speaking of AI use where the

48:17

monkey attacks all the other monkey the

48:18

monkey with the plushy attacks all the

48:20

other monkeys

48:21

>> starts doing kung fu on them.

48:22

>> Yeah. Starts doing kung fu on them like

48:24

he's like he's had enough. He's going to

48:26

punch. Anyway,

48:28

>> I just thought that I saw that and

48:30

granted I think I was on an edible and

48:31

I'm like that's my purpose in life is to

48:33

be other people's plushy.

48:34

>> Plushy.

48:35

>> That's my purpose.

48:36

>> You are my plushy. Anyway,

48:38

>> I meant I'm here to go somewhere weird

48:40

really quickly. So, I'm going to move

48:41

on. One more quick break. We'll be back

48:43

for wins and fails. Support for today's

48:46

show comes from Upwork. Hiring help

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That's upw.com.

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upwork.com.

49:50

All right. Wins and fails. I shall go

49:52

first cuz I have declared myself first.

49:55

So when the Olympics just ended, they

49:57

were quite good. US women and women in

49:59

general dominated. America's female

50:01

Olympians won six gold medals and 17

50:03

medals overall. American men won four

50:05

gold medals and 12 medals over her. It's

50:07

not a competition, but they did really

50:08

well. Um, and in any case, one of the

50:11

things I was really struck by was not an

50:13

American, but someone who is American,

50:16

Eileen Goo, uh, who won the gold medal

50:18

in the women's free uh, free skipipe

50:21

event for China. She's been been

50:23

meddling for China and just won a couple

50:26

of silvers. She's been really plagued by

50:28

stupid questions largely from male um,

50:31

reporters. But she got asked a question

50:34

uh when asked by a woman, "What do you

50:36

think about your words before you

50:37

speak?" It actually was a very

50:38

complimentary question saying, "You're

50:40

so well spoken. How do you do it?" And

50:42

so, let let's listen to her answer,

50:44

which I thought was so superb. She's

50:46

gorgeous. She's a model. She's a skier.

50:48

She's an athlete, etc. Let's let's

50:50

listen. I think overall, I'm just a

50:53

pensive person. Like, I'm a very

50:55

introspective I'm an introspective young

50:57

woman. Like, I spend a lot of time in my

50:59

head. Um, and it's not a bad place to

51:01

be. I I journal a lot. I break down all

51:03

of my thought processes. I think I apply

51:05

a very analytical lens to my own

51:08

thinking and I kind of modify it because

51:11

it's so interesting. You can control

51:12

what you think. Like you can control how

51:14

you think and therefore you can control

51:16

who you are. And especially as a young

51:18

person, like I'm 22, so with

51:19

neuroplasticity on my side, I can

51:21

literally become exactly who I want to

51:22

be. How cool is that? Like how

51:24

empowering is that, right? I think she

51:25

was quite lively in a way that I really

51:27

enjoyed listening to her uh you know

51:29

push back against people very a lot of

51:31

these athletes whether they were some of

51:33

the skaters uh the women skaters were

51:35

astonishing and they're they're their

51:37

own people. I really enjoyed this for

51:39

that for all these uh these athletes

51:42

especially the women showing off. They

51:43

don't have to be adorable little dolls.

51:46

They were just their own people. I

51:48

really like that. My fail is related.

51:50

It's when Trump called the US men's

51:53

hockey team in the locker room after

51:54

their victory where Cash Patel was

51:56

making a idiot himself chugging

51:58

beers and acting like he was 21 when

52:00

he's old and spending taxpayer money.

52:02

But let's not get into that imbecile.

52:05

But anyways, Trump then tried to said

52:08

hold my beer to Cash Patel and he

52:10

invited them to the State of the Union

52:11

and the White House. But let's listen to

52:14

how he said it.

52:14

>> We'll do the White House the next day.

52:16

We'll just have some fun. We have medals

52:17

for you guys. And we have to I must tell

52:20

you, we're gonna have to bring the

52:22

women's team. You do know that.

52:28

>> I do believe I probably would be

52:29

impeached. Okay.

52:31

>> It's so great to have a really old man

52:32

make a stupid old man joke and that is

52:36

fine. He is what he is. And it was just

52:38

gross to insult the women who had just

52:40

won the gold medal. Um instead the guys

52:43

laughed and I get it. I get it. I get

52:45

it. You're in a locker room, you just

52:47

won, you're all excited, and you have

52:48

the president calling you, but you don't

52:50

have to laugh at his jerky joke. And it

52:52

it it doesn't shed good light on you to

52:54

do this and to cut down the women's team

52:57

just because UN because of this imbecile

52:59

old man said this thing. I think it's

53:02

time is over for for talking about women

53:04

like their battle axes or they're such a

53:06

pain to be here and oh the ladies. It's

53:08

tiresome in the extreme. Um I'm not

53:11

someone who doesn't like a good joke. I

53:13

put up with Scots all the time, but this

53:15

is just not funny. And it isn't funny to

53:17

the women's team. Now, a day later,

53:18

after Trump did invite the US uh women's

53:21

hockey team, it turns out they simply

53:23

can't make it. Sorry, Donald Trump.

53:26

We're getting our hair washed or washing

53:28

our hair, I don't know, whatever stupid

53:29

excuse. They don't want to they don't

53:31

want to hang with you. A spokesman for

53:33

the team said, "We are sincerely

53:34

grateful for the invitation extended to

53:36

our gold medalinning US women's hockey

53:38

team." and added that they would not be

53:40

able to attend, quote, due to the timing

53:42

and previously scheduled academic and

53:44

professional commitments. I love them.

53:46

And I'm going to just relate very

53:48

quickly. When my son Louie was on a

53:50

men's soccer lacrosse team, there was a

53:53

there was an audio of something where

53:55

they it really insulted the girls in the

53:58

class really badly. Like really like it

54:01

was a dumb, stupid, sexually charged um

54:05

song they played. I don't remember it

54:07

exactly, but they got a video of it, of

54:08

course, because everything's videotaped.

54:11

And it was gross what they were doing.

54:13

They're assaulting their classmates like

54:15

in a really sexist way. And Louie wasn't

54:18

singing the song. I he was in the video.

54:20

He wasn't singing the song. But I

54:22

remember um you know, when I saw it, I

54:24

was so disappointed in him because he

54:26

didn't say anything, right? He didn't

54:28

like and I know he couldn't he was in

54:30

the locker room. And so we had a great

54:31

talk at the time and I remember spending

54:34

a lot of time talking to both my boys

54:36

about their role in pro, like you say,

54:39

protecting women. Not just protecting,

54:40

but don't laugh at stupid like

54:43

that. Like you don't have to go along

54:45

just to get along. And it was really it

54:47

reminded me of that moment when when

54:50

Louise said to me at the time, you know,

54:51

I didn't do anything. And I said, you

54:53

didn't do anything. That's exactly my

54:55

problem with you at this moment. And I

54:58

get it. I get what it's like being a

54:59

boy. I get the pressures of it, but

55:01

honestly, US men's soccer hockey team,

55:05

you know,

55:07

just be better. Let's just say, let's

55:10

say be what I would say to you is if I

55:12

was your parent, I'd slap you back to

55:13

last Sunday. Anyway, that's my Go ahead.

55:16

Congratulations, by the way, US men's

55:18

hockey team and the women's hockey team.

55:20

>> The I I thought the highlight of the

55:22

Winter Olympics was um Megan Keller, who

55:25

scored the overtime. I grew up going to

55:27

hockey games. It was the only one of the

55:29

few ways my father and I bonded. We used

55:31

to go to LA Kings games and watch Marcel

55:34

Deion and Whitey Whiting and Roie Vashan

55:37

and uh so I know something about hockey

55:40

and I used to go to Maple Leafs games

55:41

with my father. The the overtime goal

55:44

from Megan Keller hands down for me was

55:48

the the ultimate demonstration of

55:50

athleticism,

55:52

grace under pressure. And keep in mind,

55:55

you know, these women are really doing

55:58

it for the love of the sport. They

55:59

don't, their league does not pay a lot.

56:01

>> Can I point out Alyssa Lou and the three

56:04

others, the three other women from the

56:06

US were all supportive of each other.

56:07

Like they weren't like had each other

56:09

level of camaraderie.

56:11

Amazing.

56:12

>> I do not fault the men for laughing.

56:13

They're in a locker room. They're

56:14

talking to the president and most of

56:16

them are like 23 year olds from

56:17

Wisconsin. They don't

56:19

>> Not that there's anything wrong, but I

56:21

don't fault them. I fault the president

56:23

for not setting a good example for young

56:25

men,

56:25

>> right?

56:25

>> You know, that's just not And but the

56:28

the women

56:30

>> did you see the final of the the women's

56:32

hockey?

56:33

>> Yeah, it was amazing.

56:34

>> The goal she pulled off

56:36

>> was so ext I I kept watching it over and

56:39

I spent 20 minutes watching it 40 times.

56:43

Anyways,

56:44

>> uh Megan,

56:45

>> they don't get they don't get to star in

56:46

heated rivalry, etc. They It really is.

56:49

They they they're an astonished

56:52

rivalry with women's hockey.

56:54

>> That's already happening.

56:55

>> You got one viewer.

56:56

>> I'm sorry. That's already happening. But

56:58

we'll go into it in great. Go ahead.

57:00

Yours win and fail.

57:02

>> Well, it's one thing and that is

57:06

okay. So,

57:08

we let our thoroughbreds US corporations

57:11

run. And we have structural systemic

57:13

laws that tell them, okay, you can't

57:15

pour mercury into the river. And if an

57:18

industry becomes so consolidated, it

57:19

starts extracting unfair rents from

57:21

labor, consumers, the government moves

57:23

in. Other than that, one of the reasons

57:25

for our economic growth is we heir on a

57:27

lack of regulation or government

57:29

intervention. When the president starts

57:31

weighing in and saying the most

57:33

ridiculous about a board member he

57:37

called her racist, oh yeah, Susan Rice,

57:39

like famous racist.

57:41

>> So that's not even my fail though. that

57:44

we we've expected that kind of weak and

57:47

weird socialist/communist/autocratic

57:50

behavior that hurts our economy. What I

57:55

can't stand is that Democrats

57:58

do not lack all creativity around how

58:01

we're going to strike back. And let me

58:03

just give you one idea because I love

58:04

the idea of economic activism. And that

58:08

is all right. A a kind of beltway

58:12

on-ramp into greater wealth is the

58:14

following. You serve in Congress or in

58:16

the cabinet and you go on because you're

58:18

an impressive person with strong

58:20

connections and an understanding of the

58:21

world. You go on to serve on corporate

58:24

boards and make some money. I bet Susan

58:26

Rice has made millions of dollars on the

58:29

board of Netflix. And by the way, I

58:32

think it's great. She worked her ass

58:33

off. I don't mind. There should be a

58:35

cooling off period going to work for

58:37

lobbyists. But I have been on boards

58:40

with former the New York Times. We had

58:41

Bill Canard, the former head of the FCC,

58:43

went on to be the American ambassador to

58:44

the EU. I was on a board with uh Rick

58:47

Snder who went on to be the governor of

58:49

Michigan. I think it's great that they

58:51

serve on boards. They're talented,

58:52

thoughtful people. They deserve to make

58:53

money. I have no problem with it. But if

58:56

the president starts with

58:58

Democrats on boards,

59:01

leader Jeff and uh Senator Schumer, why

59:05

the are you not back? And

59:08

this is the following. For example, Mike

59:11

Pompeo, former head of the CIA and

59:15

Secretary of State, he is on a board,

59:17

and I did this in about 10 minutes of

59:19

research. He did he is on a board uh

59:23

called Von which is a single class share

59:27

company and when I used to do activism I

59:30

had to spend 150,000 to 250,000 to file

59:33

a 13D and nominate directors and get

59:36

lawyers involved. I have now written up

59:40

uh uh uh the filings for nominating

59:42

governors at this single class share

59:44

company and I did it in about 7 minutes

59:47

using AI. I'm gonna buy one share in

59:50

this company and I'm gonna start

59:52

targeting Republicans on boards and not

59:55

renominating them and then maybe go

59:57

after another board member and anyone in

60:00

Congress who's a Republican who decides

60:03

they too would like to make some money

60:04

on boards. Well, why aren't Schumer and

60:07

Jeffrey saying, "We're going to we're

60:10

going to be back in power, folks. And if

60:12

you want to go serve on boards as Susan

60:15

Rice did, we're gonna start with

60:17

you.

60:18

>> Now look, Scott, the thing is what he's

60:20

doing is totally wrong. So you should do

60:21

the wrong thing in order to meet him.

60:24

Like that is a hard decision.

60:25

>> You you fire a gun at me, I am pulling

60:28

out my gun and I am shooting you in the

60:30

face.

60:31

>> All right, I'm good.

60:32

>> This is about incentives. And this this

60:34

notion that Democrats that we're higher

60:36

and mightier and that we'll restore the

60:39

con that. that. You wanna You

60:43

want to deny the Constitution and and

60:46

engage in depraved criminal behavior

60:48

against us? Well, fine, folks. If you

60:51

think we're going to restore just go

60:52

back to being the nice guys who are

60:54

gentile and restore the norms, no. That

60:57

is the wrong incentives. There needs to

60:59

be a loud and clear message to the

61:00

Republicans who are grabbing this their

61:03

ankles as America gets here. Be

61:06

clear. You want an autocracy? Fine. and

61:09

we'll show you an autocracy when we're

61:11

back in charge.

61:13

>> Sorry for sorry for the lecture.

61:14

>> Okay. I think they're not going to be

61:15

invited at the next Democratic getaway.

61:17

I There's other ways to fight back that

61:19

are just as devastating to them that you

61:21

don't have to do what they did. There's

61:23

lots someone called me from one of these

61:26

companies and it's like, "Oh, I don't

61:27

think the Democrats are going to hurt

61:28

us." I said, "Oh, they're going to hurt

61:30

you. You're just not the same way.

61:31

>> They're not afraid. They think we're

61:33

going to go back to strongly worded

61:35

letters."

61:35

>> No, they're not going to. I think

61:36

there's going to be action. I do. I just

61:38

don't think we have to do it the way

61:39

Trump is doing, which is essentially

61:40

acting like Putin. Anyway, we have we

61:43

have to we have to uh move on. But just

61:45

for people who don't know, Trump's

61:47

favorite judge, speaking of fails,

61:48

Eileen Cannon just blocked the public

61:50

release of special counsel Jackson's

61:51

report on the classified documents case

61:54

against Trump trying her best to get

61:55

into the Supreme Court. Eileen or Ailen,

61:58

whatever your name is, you suck

61:59

and you're going to be overturned on

62:01

appeal. Um anyway, we want to hear from

62:04

you. Send us your questions about

62:06

business, tech, or whatever's on your

62:07

mind. We don't want to hear from Judge

62:08

Cannon at all anymore, hopefully. Go to

62:10

nymag.com/pivot

62:12

to submit a question for the show or

62:13

call 85551 Pivot. Elsewhere in the Cara

62:17

and Scott universe this week on OnWith

62:18

with Carara Swisser, I spoke with Chris

62:21

Appleands and Maggie Kang, directors uh

62:23

of the K-pop Demon Hunters. Maggie is

62:25

also the creator. And Scott, you got a

62:28

mention. Let's listen.

62:29

>> How do we get Scott to watch it? Do we

62:31

just tell him every Let's tell him

62:33

everyone's hot. That'll work right cuz

62:35

everyone's hot. So, watch it. Do it.

62:38

>> I just got him to watch Heated Rivalry.

62:41

>> So, I know it took a bit, but I finally

62:43

got him. I am going to make when I'm

62:45

with him at South by Southwest, I'm

62:47

going to go to his room and we're going

62:48

to watch it. He and I I I will have to

62:50

cuddle with him. But that's what's if it

62:52

takes that's what it takes. I'm going to

62:54

do that. So, I will I promise I will get

62:56

him to watch it and I will give him an

62:57

edible

62:58

>> and I'll put him right in front of it

63:00

and that's how it's going to go. Just so

63:02

you know,

63:03

>> show

63:03

>> K-pop Demon Hunters.

63:06

>> You have not watched it.

63:07

>> I have not. But I don't have young kids.

63:09

Isn't it for little kids?

63:10

>> No, it's an adult movie. Just watch it.

63:12

You're going to watch it with me. You

63:13

and I are going to watch it. Okay, we're

63:14

going to

63:15

>> Yeah, that's definitely got to involve

63:16

some sort of THC.

63:18

>> Okay, we won't

63:20

>> K-pop Demon Hunters. It's They're sexy

63:22

cartoons. You'll love it.

63:23

>> Aren't those folks billionaires now?

63:24

It's not the most watched thing ever on

63:26

Netflix.

63:26

>> It is, but I think they got didn't get

63:28

again like he did rivalry. They got they

63:30

got it for a song. Uh, but I think they

63:32

did fine. I mean, they're amazing. It's

63:33

an amazing podcast. I love K-pop Demon

63:35

Hunters. It's not for kids, actually.

63:36

It's a It's a very complex show. Okay,

63:39

that's the show. Thanks for listening to

63:40

Pivot. Be sure to like and subscribe to

63:42

our YouTube channel. We'll be back on

63:44

Friday.

Interactive Summary

The discussion covers a range of current events and economic analyses. It begins with an update on a blizzard in New York and Cara Swisher receiving an award. A significant portion focuses on recent cartel violence in Mexico, its structural causes, and the US's role. The hosts then review the 'Resist Unsubscribe' campaign, suggesting big tech alternatives like Proton and Signal, and evaluate its impact. Another major topic is Donald Trump's reaction to the Supreme Court striking down his tariffs, his subsequent actions, and the economic implications. The conversation shifts to the Netflix/Warner Brothers acquisition bid, Trump's political interference, and the broader market dynamics, including AI's potential impact on the entertainment industry. Investment strategies are explored, contrasting 'Halo companies' with undervalued SAS companies in the AI era. Finally, the segment on 'Wins and Fails' highlights Olympian Eileen Gu's philosophy and critiques Trump's inappropriate comments to the US men's hockey team regarding the women's team.

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