The Problem With Building Trump's Golden Fleet
200 segments
At any given time, the US Navy is legally mandated to have at least 11 aircraft carriers in
operation. On the day this video is uploaded, most of those carriers are either docked or sailing
just off the coast of the US mainland, at least according to public data. For obvious reasons,
completely up-to-date information on their exact location is not shared. But these 1,000 ft
floating warships are also not exactly subtle, and in modern times, that's been part of their appeal.
Two of the three carriers currently sailing outside of US waters are in strategic locations
adjacent to the South China Sea and the third is located intimidatingly close to the coast
of Venezuela. Even if they never see active combat, they do send a certain message. However,
regardless of their current location or mission, every single one of these carriers all started
life in exactly the same dry dock. On the 22nd of July 2017, the USS Gerald R. Ford was officially
commissioned at the Newport News Shipyard in Virginia, becoming the latest carrier to enter
the fleet, the largest warship ever constructed, and coincidentally the most expensive as well.
The raw volume of steel, the man-hour, and cutting edge technologies that went into this
ship certainly contributed to that price. But one of the biggest factors of all was simply the time
it took to get this vessel from the drawing board to the ocean. The first steel plates on
the vessel were cut back in 2005. And even after the keys were handed over to the Navy in 2017,
it took an additional 5 years before it went on its first deployment in 2023. For almost
20 years straight, this ship was worked on around the clock by as many as 10,000 on-site tradesmen,
technicians, engineers, and government auditors. This process actually went on for so long that
the company that eventually delivered the ship technically didn't even exist when construction
began. This shipyard in Virginia is currently the only facility in the world authorized and capable
of building US super carriers. In 2005 when construction started this facility was owned
and operated by Northrup Grumman ship building. But in 2011 6 years in the ship building part of
the company was spun off and established as its own business Huntington's industry. The reason
for that corporate breakup will become very clear. But the important point for now is that
this company owns the single shipyard that has an effective monopoly on constructing these carriers.
The shipyard itself is also only one piece of the literal construction puzzle. Everything
from the Bechtel nuclear reactors to the evac jets vacuum toilet system were supplied
by a collection of over 2,000 contractors, subcontractors, and sub subcontractors. This
web of suppliers has simultaneously become so important and well organized that they formed
what amounts to their own union. According to their own website, the aircraft carrier
industrial based coalition represents the businesses that supply parts, equipment,
and services for the construction and maintenance of US naval aircraft carriers. This organization
exists to lobby on behalf of all these military contractors to make sure business remains steady,
and they're not shy about highlighting that these companies directly employ over 60,000 people in
44 states. Now, I know what you're thinking. military contractors, lobbying politicians,
and not so subtly threatening thousands of job losses if things don't go their way. That's not
exactly shocking, is it? But the thing is, in this case, it's also completely unnecessary. The
mandate to have 11 operational carriers does not come from the Navy itself. It was actually passed
into law back in 2006 through the National Defense Authorization Act. The original law actually
called for no less than 12 carriers, but it was reviewed down a year later to just 11 carriers
as something of a compromise between budget constraints and operational capabilities. Now,
regardless of the exact number, this creates a logical economic problem that you might be
starting to notice. If price is a function of supply and demand, then on the supply side,
the US has one single supplier that has a monopoly on building these vessels. And on the demand side,
there's a legal mandate that the Navy must keep a set amount of these ships in operation. It's
seemingly the perfect storm to price gouge the taxpayers, right? Well, the official line for the
Department of Defense, the contractors, and the lawmakers is that these strange market dynamics
are actually working as intended. The complete absence of competition is a feature and not a
bug. But the US Navy is not the only fish in the sea. And the quirkiness of carrier economics is
best appreciated by the runnerup, which is trying to achieve the same thing, but doing it in almost
exactly the opposite way. This video is sponsored by Storylocks. If you're a content creator,
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head to storyblocks.com/micro or click the link in the description. Once they're built, aircraft
carriers are expected to stay in service for a very long time. The USS Nimmitz is the lead ship
of the Nimits class of carriers. The nine other carriers that came after her were all based on
roughly the same overall design. And as a general rule, the name of the first ship in the class is
what the class itself is named after. The Gerald R. Ford is now the lead ship of the updated Gerald
R. Ford class, which will slowly replace all of the ships that make up the Nimttz class. However,
this first Nimits class carrier, the Nimmits, has now been in service for over 50 years. In that
time, it's seen several modifications to update its systems and perform routine maintenance,
the biggest of which came back in 2001. It's a common misconception that since these ships are
powered by nuclear reactors, they never need to be refueled. This unfortunately breaks the
fundamental laws of physics. Even file material can't create energy from nothing. Regular nuclear
reactors like those in commercial power stations are refueled every 18 to 24 months. According to
the Department of Energy, nuclear naval vessels like aircraft carriers and submarines can extend
this cycle by up to about 25 years by using highlyenriched weaponsgrade uranium. Now,
this is actually a bit of a problem because the US officially stopped producing this stuff back in
1992 after signing the nuclear non-prololiferation treaty. To get around this, the Department of
Energy has taken the fuel out of dismantled nuclear weapons and stored it away to slowly
go into these ships as it's required. It should hopefully go without saying that this refueling
process is done very carefully in the only facility authorized to handle these operations,
the Newport News Shipyard. When the Nimmits went in for refueling back in 2001, it was pulled apart
and rebuilt in a modernization process to keep it in service for another 25 years. which brought it
through to today. The ship is now scheduled to finish its final deployment no later than May
of next year, at which time it will be handed back over to Newport News Shipyard for decommissioning.
Given that these ships are filled with top secret weapon systems and nuclear reactors, they can't
be scrapped on the beaches of India like most other merchant vessels. The decommissioning and
defueling process will take about an additional decade in total, and that's optimistic.
For the first 5 years, the Nimmits will be kept here in dry dock 11, right next door to the John
F. Kennedy that will replace it in 2027, bringing the Navy back up to the mandated 11 carriers. The
reactors and engineering systems will be carefully pulled out and discarded before the hull is then
towed up to the naval inactive ship maintenance facility in Philadelphia to await traditional
scrapping. The reason why the decade time frame for decommissioning is optimistic is because the
ship that came before the Nimtt, the former John F. Kennedy was taken out of service in 2007. And
it was only earlier this year that the process of cutting the ship apart for scrap began when
she was sold from inventory in the Philadelphia holding yard. This old carrier was sold for one
single cent to International Shipbreaking Limited to be taken apart in their yard in Brownsville,
Texas, about 2 miles from the Mexican border. Now, to be fair, at this point, the former carrier was
effectively a hollow floating metal box. But it was still filled with tens of millions of dollars
worth of scrap metal. The reason why it was sold off for just a single penny is because even when
cutting these ships up for their metal, it still needs to be done within the USA. And the USA is
simply not a hot destination for most other ship scrapping because the process usually relies on an
army of low paid workers operating with no safety standards and no regard for the local environment.
All of this means that, yep, you guessed it, there's only one shipbreaking yard in the world
that's authorized to scrap these ships, and it's this one right here in Brownsville, which in turn
means there wasn't much competition in the bidding process. In fact, while we were putting together
this video, we were actually able to submit a foyer request to get the classified footage of
that auction released. How much my bid for item 751? 751. Nothing. No bids for item 751. A buck.
sold for a luck. Unfortunately, this historically accurate recreation of that event accidentally
depicted a price 100 times higher than they really paid. But you get the idea. Today's modern
carriers are built with a similar service life in mind. They're taking 20 years to construct,
5 years to refuel, 20 years to fully take apart with 50 to 60 years of operation in between.
What this means is that ashes to ashes, these ships are going to be a major economic commitment
for near as makes no difference 100red years. This presents a planning challenge because it's
a matter of national security that capacity and expertise is always available to build, refuel,
service, and decommission these vessels. The problem this represents is that these are not
normal ships. And even if they were, regular American shipyards are all but extinct anyway.
Private for-profit companies simply do not operate on centuries long time
frames. They need regular revenues and so does their workforce or they're all going
to move to another industry. Between 11 carriers, there's only enough consistent work to keep one
shipyard operating continuously. If the government wanted to offer these contracts to a competitor,
it would need to prove to investors that a new highly capital-intensive shipyard was worth
investing in. And the only way it'll be able to do that is by offering even more contracts to
give those investors a reliable return on their investment. In fact, even with just one shipyard,
a shipyard that holds a monopoly on this industry, the true financial value of this
business is not as clear as you might think. The reason Northrup Grumman spun off and sold
the business was because it required such large investments into infrastructure that it simply
wasn't worth it to them to keep. Which might not make much sense, but think of it like this.
This would be kind of like if you had a successful business selling cakes out of your corner store.
You made a healthy and reliable profit of around $100,000 a year running your little bakery, but
you needed to spend half a million dollars on new ovens, and your store itself was worth $5 million.
You might have a good business, but it just makes more financial sense to sell up and reinvest that
money into something that could make a higher return. in their submission to the SEC before
selling off their ship building business. This is effectively what Northrup Grummans said. Today,
they are still a major contractor to the carrier program, but they supply far more high margin and
competitive technical components rather than just the big metal box itself. For the current
shareholders in Huntington Les Industries, the return on investment is not as high as something
like a tech stock, but it's very consistent, a lot like a government bond because, well,
it kind of is. Now, I know what you're probably thinking. The Department of Defense should not
be concerned with the financial performance of a private company. And you're probably right. But
the same kind of economic decision-making happens for the workers as well when they're choosing to
undertake the rigorous training and background checks required to get a job working on these
ships. People are happy to go through these hoops for an above average and consistent paycheck. But
if that work consistency can't be guaranteed, then it becomes much harder to maintain this
workforce and their highly specialized skills. The US Navy can't go anywhere else to procure
their aircraft carriers, but the Newport News shipyard also can't go anywhere else to sell them,
so they kind of need each other. Additionally, for what it's worth, Congress does at least pretend to
have some negotiating power by simply highlighting that it could just order fewer carriers in total.
They have said the law at 11, but that's after they reduced it from 12. and every year they stand
over hi and tell them to pray they don't alter the deal further. When Congress was approving
the purchase order for the new class of aircraft carriers in the production pipeline, the idea of
reducing the number of acquired carriers to eight was seriously considered. The floated idea was
to substitute the missing three super carriers with six light carriers that didn't have nuclear
reactors and therefore wouldn't need to be built in the highly specialized Newport News shipyard.
The idea was pushed back against heavily by naval leadership who claimed that their
capabilities were already stretched, which of course they always will be because nobody wants
their budget cut. Now, the thing is, even if this plan did go ahead, it may not have changed
the underlying economics much anyway. Even light carriers are still big ships that would be roughly
comparable in size to other similar vessels from France, the UK, or Italy. Within the US,
there are still only two yards that can produce naval ships this big. Newport News in Virginia
and the Pascula shipyard in Massachusetts, which is also owned by Huntington Les Industries. So,
even if the Navy did allow their fleet to be reorganized to allow for more negotiating
leverage, the shipyards would still be competing against themselves. It's a system that's worked
well enough for the last 70 years to not really bother with any major shakeups, but that capacity
is once again coming under scrutiny by a new major power that's becoming a legitimate rival by doing
almost absolutely everything differently. Now, the internet doesn't need another armchair admiral,
so we won't be assessing their comparative war fighting capabilities. But realistically,
China is currently the only major power on Earth that would come close to rivaling the USA on the
oceans. So what is interesting is the industrial system they've built up to support their rapidly
expanding naval power. China's overall ship building industry is now 200 times larger than the
USA's. In just the last 20 years, shipyards like Changqing on the outskirts of Shanghai have been
built from the ground up and are now individually producing more ships than every shipyard in
America combined. Now, most of this ship building is commercial freighters and container ships,
the kind of merchant vessels that we would usually hyper-fixate on on this channel. But the thing is,
ships are ships. And while a modern aircraft carrier is far more advanced and highly engineered
than a container ship, they still require the same general expertise and facilities. Enormous
dry docks, modular construction techniques, supply chains, and a large roster of naval
workers all support an industry that can crank out more ships than any other country in history.
This facility back in Shanghai spends most of its time producing commercial ships for export. But it
was also responsible for producing the country's third aircraft carrier, which officially entered
service just last month. The irony is that this shipyard, which is primarily producing private
vessels, is government owned under the China State Shipbuilding Corporation, while the Newport News
shipyard in America, producing exclusively naval vessels, is privately owned by HII.
What this allows China to do is diversify their carrier program across dozens of potential dual
use shipyards. Because in the time that these facilities are not building carriers or other
warships, they can then just go back to building regular merchant vessels for a profit. Giving
these yards operational stability that doesn't rely on constant financial life support from the
military. China's immense industrial capacity also means that even economically they are hard
to beat. Their merchant ships are now cheaper than their only real rivals in South Korea and Japan.
If you ever wanted proof that economics always wins, the Taiwanese shipping company Evergreen
currently has several ships under construction in the same shipyard building Chinese warships.
Chinese warships they are threatening to use to invade Taiwan. Now, to put things back
into perspective, even with this far larger and more flexible ship building capacity,
I've done the math here, and three carriers is a smaller number than 11 carriers. What's more is
that by their own acknowledgement, these Chinese ships do not compete with the American ones, but
they're quickly catching up. This latest carrier to come out of China was built in just 7 years and
fully entered service in less than 10. Their first nuclear carrier is predicted to enter service in
2030 and in a protracted conflict with China could simply outproduce the USA by 10 to one.
Hopefully this never happens, but it does raise the question of why the USA let itself fall so far
behind on ship building in the first place. It's a great question which you can get the answer to
by watching this video next. And don't forget to subscribe for more micro stories with big impacts.
Ask follow-up questions or revisit key timestamps.
The US Navy is legally mandated to have 11 operational aircraft carriers at all times. The construction and maintenance of these massive vessels is a complex and lengthy process, with the USS Gerald R. Ford taking nearly 20 years from initial steel cutting to its first deployment. This process is currently monopolized by Huntington Ingalls Industries at the Newport News Shipyard, the only facility in the world capable of building US super carriers. This lack of competition, coupled with a legal mandate for a specific number of carriers, creates a unique economic dynamic. The entire supply chain involves over 2,000 contractors and subcontractors, organized into an industrial base coalition that lobbies for steady business. Even the decommissioning of these carriers is a lengthy and specialized process, with only a few authorized facilities. In contrast, China has rapidly expanded its shipbuilding industry, now 200 times larger than the US, with government-owned shipyards capable of building both commercial and military vessels, offering greater flexibility and cost-effectiveness. This industrial capacity allows China to produce carriers much faster than the US and potentially outproduce them in a protracted conflict.
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