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The Problem With Building Trump's Golden Fleet

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The Problem With Building Trump's Golden Fleet

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At any given time, the US Navy is legally  mandated to have at least 11 aircraft carriers in  

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operation. On the day this video is uploaded, most  of those carriers are either docked or sailing  

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just off the coast of the US mainland, at least  according to public data. For obvious reasons,  

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completely up-to-date information on their  exact location is not shared. But these 1,000 ft  

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floating warships are also not exactly subtle, and  in modern times, that's been part of their appeal.  

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Two of the three carriers currently sailing  outside of US waters are in strategic locations  

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adjacent to the South China Sea and the third  is located intimidatingly close to the coast  

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of Venezuela. Even if they never see active  combat, they do send a certain message. However,  

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regardless of their current location or mission,  every single one of these carriers all started  

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life in exactly the same dry dock. On the 22nd of  July 2017, the USS Gerald R. Ford was officially  

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commissioned at the Newport News Shipyard in  Virginia, becoming the latest carrier to enter  

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the fleet, the largest warship ever constructed,  and coincidentally the most expensive as well.  

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The raw volume of steel, the man-hour, and  cutting edge technologies that went into this  

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ship certainly contributed to that price. But one  of the biggest factors of all was simply the time  

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it took to get this vessel from the drawing  board to the ocean. The first steel plates on  

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the vessel were cut back in 2005. And even after  the keys were handed over to the Navy in 2017,  

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it took an additional 5 years before it went  on its first deployment in 2023. For almost  

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20 years straight, this ship was worked on around  the clock by as many as 10,000 on-site tradesmen,  

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technicians, engineers, and government auditors.  This process actually went on for so long that  

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the company that eventually delivered the ship  technically didn't even exist when construction  

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began. This shipyard in Virginia is currently the  only facility in the world authorized and capable  

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of building US super carriers. In 2005 when  construction started this facility was owned  

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and operated by Northrup Grumman ship building.  But in 2011 6 years in the ship building part of  

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the company was spun off and established as its  own business Huntington's industry. The reason  

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for that corporate breakup will become very  clear. But the important point for now is that  

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this company owns the single shipyard that has an  effective monopoly on constructing these carriers.  

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The shipyard itself is also only one piece of  the literal construction puzzle. Everything  

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from the Bechtel nuclear reactors to the  evac jets vacuum toilet system were supplied  

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by a collection of over 2,000 contractors,  subcontractors, and sub subcontractors. This  

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web of suppliers has simultaneously become so  important and well organized that they formed  

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what amounts to their own union. According  to their own website, the aircraft carrier  

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industrial based coalition represents the  businesses that supply parts, equipment,  

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and services for the construction and maintenance  of US naval aircraft carriers. This organization  

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exists to lobby on behalf of all these military  contractors to make sure business remains steady,  

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and they're not shy about highlighting that these  companies directly employ over 60,000 people in  

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44 states. Now, I know what you're thinking.  military contractors, lobbying politicians,  

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and not so subtly threatening thousands of job  losses if things don't go their way. That's not  

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exactly shocking, is it? But the thing is, in  this case, it's also completely unnecessary. The  

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mandate to have 11 operational carriers does not  come from the Navy itself. It was actually passed  

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into law back in 2006 through the National Defense  Authorization Act. The original law actually  

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called for no less than 12 carriers, but it was  reviewed down a year later to just 11 carriers  

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as something of a compromise between budget  constraints and operational capabilities. Now,  

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regardless of the exact number, this creates  a logical economic problem that you might be  

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starting to notice. If price is a function of  supply and demand, then on the supply side,  

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the US has one single supplier that has a monopoly  on building these vessels. And on the demand side,  

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there's a legal mandate that the Navy must keep  a set amount of these ships in operation. It's  

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seemingly the perfect storm to price gouge the  taxpayers, right? Well, the official line for the  

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Department of Defense, the contractors, and the  lawmakers is that these strange market dynamics  

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are actually working as intended. The complete  absence of competition is a feature and not a  

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bug. But the US Navy is not the only fish in the  sea. And the quirkiness of carrier economics is  

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best appreciated by the runnerup, which is trying  to achieve the same thing, but doing it in almost  

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head to storyblocks.com/micro or click the link  in the description. Once they're built, aircraft  

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carriers are expected to stay in service for a  very long time. The USS Nimmitz is the lead ship  

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of the Nimits class of carriers. The nine other  carriers that came after her were all based on  

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roughly the same overall design. And as a general  rule, the name of the first ship in the class is  

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what the class itself is named after. The Gerald  R. Ford is now the lead ship of the updated Gerald  

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R. Ford class, which will slowly replace all of  the ships that make up the Nimttz class. However,  

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this first Nimits class carrier, the Nimmits, has  now been in service for over 50 years. In that  

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time, it's seen several modifications to update  its systems and perform routine maintenance,  

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the biggest of which came back in 2001. It's a  common misconception that since these ships are  

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powered by nuclear reactors, they never need  to be refueled. This unfortunately breaks the  

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fundamental laws of physics. Even file material  can't create energy from nothing. Regular nuclear  

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reactors like those in commercial power stations  are refueled every 18 to 24 months. According to  

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the Department of Energy, nuclear naval vessels  like aircraft carriers and submarines can extend  

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this cycle by up to about 25 years by using  highlyenriched weaponsgrade uranium. Now,  

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this is actually a bit of a problem because the  US officially stopped producing this stuff back in  

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1992 after signing the nuclear non-prololiferation  treaty. To get around this, the Department of  

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Energy has taken the fuel out of dismantled  nuclear weapons and stored it away to slowly  

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go into these ships as it's required. It should  hopefully go without saying that this refueling  

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process is done very carefully in the only  facility authorized to handle these operations,  

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the Newport News Shipyard. When the Nimmits went  in for refueling back in 2001, it was pulled apart  

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and rebuilt in a modernization process to keep it  in service for another 25 years. which brought it  

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through to today. The ship is now scheduled to  finish its final deployment no later than May  

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of next year, at which time it will be handed back  over to Newport News Shipyard for decommissioning.  

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Given that these ships are filled with top secret  weapon systems and nuclear reactors, they can't  

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be scrapped on the beaches of India like most  other merchant vessels. The decommissioning and  

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defueling process will take about an additional  decade in total, and that's optimistic.  

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For the first 5 years, the Nimmits will be kept  here in dry dock 11, right next door to the John  

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F. Kennedy that will replace it in 2027, bringing  the Navy back up to the mandated 11 carriers. The  

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reactors and engineering systems will be carefully  pulled out and discarded before the hull is then  

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towed up to the naval inactive ship maintenance  facility in Philadelphia to await traditional  

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scrapping. The reason why the decade time frame  for decommissioning is optimistic is because the  

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ship that came before the Nimtt, the former John  F. Kennedy was taken out of service in 2007. And  

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it was only earlier this year that the process  of cutting the ship apart for scrap began when  

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she was sold from inventory in the Philadelphia  holding yard. This old carrier was sold for one  

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single cent to International Shipbreaking Limited  to be taken apart in their yard in Brownsville,  

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Texas, about 2 miles from the Mexican border. Now,  to be fair, at this point, the former carrier was  

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effectively a hollow floating metal box. But it  was still filled with tens of millions of dollars  

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worth of scrap metal. The reason why it was sold  off for just a single penny is because even when  

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cutting these ships up for their metal, it still  needs to be done within the USA. And the USA is  

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simply not a hot destination for most other ship  scrapping because the process usually relies on an  

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army of low paid workers operating with no safety  standards and no regard for the local environment.  

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All of this means that, yep, you guessed it,  there's only one shipbreaking yard in the world  

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that's authorized to scrap these ships, and it's  this one right here in Brownsville, which in turn  

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means there wasn't much competition in the bidding  process. In fact, while we were putting together  

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this video, we were actually able to submit a  foyer request to get the classified footage of  

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that auction released. How much my bid for item  751? 751. Nothing. No bids for item 751. A buck.  

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sold for a luck. Unfortunately, this historically  accurate recreation of that event accidentally  

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depicted a price 100 times higher than they  really paid. But you get the idea. Today's modern  

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carriers are built with a similar service life  in mind. They're taking 20 years to construct,  

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5 years to refuel, 20 years to fully take apart  with 50 to 60 years of operation in between.  

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What this means is that ashes to ashes, these  ships are going to be a major economic commitment  

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for near as makes no difference 100red years.  This presents a planning challenge because it's  

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a matter of national security that capacity and  expertise is always available to build, refuel,  

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service, and decommission these vessels. The  problem this represents is that these are not  

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normal ships. And even if they were, regular  American shipyards are all but extinct anyway.  

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Private for-profit companies simply  do not operate on centuries long time  

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frames. They need regular revenues and so  does their workforce or they're all going  

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to move to another industry. Between 11 carriers,  there's only enough consistent work to keep one  

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shipyard operating continuously. If the government  wanted to offer these contracts to a competitor,  

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it would need to prove to investors that a new  highly capital-intensive shipyard was worth  

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investing in. And the only way it'll be able to  do that is by offering even more contracts to  

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give those investors a reliable return on their  investment. In fact, even with just one shipyard,  

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a shipyard that holds a monopoly on this  industry, the true financial value of this  

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business is not as clear as you might think.  The reason Northrup Grumman spun off and sold  

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the business was because it required such large  investments into infrastructure that it simply  

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wasn't worth it to them to keep. Which might  not make much sense, but think of it like this.  

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This would be kind of like if you had a successful  business selling cakes out of your corner store.  

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You made a healthy and reliable profit of around  $100,000 a year running your little bakery, but  

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you needed to spend half a million dollars on new  ovens, and your store itself was worth $5 million.  

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You might have a good business, but it just makes  more financial sense to sell up and reinvest that  

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money into something that could make a higher  return. in their submission to the SEC before  

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selling off their ship building business. This is  effectively what Northrup Grummans said. Today,  

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they are still a major contractor to the carrier  program, but they supply far more high margin and  

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competitive technical components rather than  just the big metal box itself. For the current  

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shareholders in Huntington Les Industries, the  return on investment is not as high as something  

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like a tech stock, but it's very consistent,  a lot like a government bond because, well,  

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it kind of is. Now, I know what you're probably  thinking. The Department of Defense should not  

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be concerned with the financial performance of a  private company. And you're probably right. But  

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the same kind of economic decision-making happens  for the workers as well when they're choosing to  

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undertake the rigorous training and background  checks required to get a job working on these  

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ships. People are happy to go through these hoops  for an above average and consistent paycheck. But  

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if that work consistency can't be guaranteed,  then it becomes much harder to maintain this  

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workforce and their highly specialized skills.  The US Navy can't go anywhere else to procure  

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their aircraft carriers, but the Newport News  shipyard also can't go anywhere else to sell them,  

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so they kind of need each other. Additionally, for  what it's worth, Congress does at least pretend to  

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have some negotiating power by simply highlighting  that it could just order fewer carriers in total.  

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They have said the law at 11, but that's after  they reduced it from 12. and every year they stand  

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over hi and tell them to pray they don't alter  the deal further. When Congress was approving  

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the purchase order for the new class of aircraft  carriers in the production pipeline, the idea of  

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reducing the number of acquired carriers to eight  was seriously considered. The floated idea was  

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to substitute the missing three super carriers  with six light carriers that didn't have nuclear  

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reactors and therefore wouldn't need to be built  in the highly specialized Newport News shipyard.  

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The idea was pushed back against heavily  by naval leadership who claimed that their  

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capabilities were already stretched, which of  course they always will be because nobody wants  

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their budget cut. Now, the thing is, even if  this plan did go ahead, it may not have changed  

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the underlying economics much anyway. Even light  carriers are still big ships that would be roughly  

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comparable in size to other similar vessels  from France, the UK, or Italy. Within the US,  

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there are still only two yards that can produce  naval ships this big. Newport News in Virginia  

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and the Pascula shipyard in Massachusetts, which  is also owned by Huntington Les Industries. So,  

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even if the Navy did allow their fleet to  be reorganized to allow for more negotiating  

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leverage, the shipyards would still be competing  against themselves. It's a system that's worked  

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well enough for the last 70 years to not really  bother with any major shakeups, but that capacity  

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is once again coming under scrutiny by a new major  power that's becoming a legitimate rival by doing  

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almost absolutely everything differently. Now, the  internet doesn't need another armchair admiral,  

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so we won't be assessing their comparative  war fighting capabilities. But realistically,  

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China is currently the only major power on Earth  that would come close to rivaling the USA on the  

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oceans. So what is interesting is the industrial  system they've built up to support their rapidly  

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expanding naval power. China's overall ship  building industry is now 200 times larger than the  

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USA's. In just the last 20 years, shipyards like  Changqing on the outskirts of Shanghai have been  

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built from the ground up and are now individually  producing more ships than every shipyard in  

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America combined. Now, most of this ship building  is commercial freighters and container ships,  

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the kind of merchant vessels that we would usually  hyper-fixate on on this channel. But the thing is,  

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ships are ships. And while a modern aircraft  carrier is far more advanced and highly engineered  

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than a container ship, they still require the  same general expertise and facilities. Enormous  

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dry docks, modular construction techniques,  supply chains, and a large roster of naval  

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workers all support an industry that can crank  out more ships than any other country in history.  

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This facility back in Shanghai spends most of its  time producing commercial ships for export. But it  

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was also responsible for producing the country's  third aircraft carrier, which officially entered  

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service just last month. The irony is that this  shipyard, which is primarily producing private  

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vessels, is government owned under the China State  Shipbuilding Corporation, while the Newport News  

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shipyard in America, producing exclusively  naval vessels, is privately owned by HII.  

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What this allows China to do is diversify their  carrier program across dozens of potential dual  

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use shipyards. Because in the time that these  facilities are not building carriers or other  

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warships, they can then just go back to building  regular merchant vessels for a profit. Giving  

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these yards operational stability that doesn't  rely on constant financial life support from the  

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military. China's immense industrial capacity  also means that even economically they are hard  

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to beat. Their merchant ships are now cheaper than  their only real rivals in South Korea and Japan.  

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If you ever wanted proof that economics always  wins, the Taiwanese shipping company Evergreen  

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currently has several ships under construction  in the same shipyard building Chinese warships.  

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Chinese warships they are threatening to use  to invade Taiwan. Now, to put things back  

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into perspective, even with this far larger  and more flexible ship building capacity,  

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I've done the math here, and three carriers is a  smaller number than 11 carriers. What's more is  

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that by their own acknowledgement, these Chinese  ships do not compete with the American ones, but  

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they're quickly catching up. This latest carrier  to come out of China was built in just 7 years and  

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fully entered service in less than 10. Their first  nuclear carrier is predicted to enter service in  

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2030 and in a protracted conflict with China  could simply outproduce the USA by 10 to one.  

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Hopefully this never happens, but it does raise  the question of why the USA let itself fall so far  

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behind on ship building in the first place. It's  a great question which you can get the answer to  

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by watching this video next. And don't forget to  subscribe for more micro stories with big impacts.

Interactive Summary

Ask follow-up questions or revisit key timestamps.

The US Navy is legally mandated to have 11 operational aircraft carriers at all times. The construction and maintenance of these massive vessels is a complex and lengthy process, with the USS Gerald R. Ford taking nearly 20 years from initial steel cutting to its first deployment. This process is currently monopolized by Huntington Ingalls Industries at the Newport News Shipyard, the only facility in the world capable of building US super carriers. This lack of competition, coupled with a legal mandate for a specific number of carriers, creates a unique economic dynamic. The entire supply chain involves over 2,000 contractors and subcontractors, organized into an industrial base coalition that lobbies for steady business. Even the decommissioning of these carriers is a lengthy and specialized process, with only a few authorized facilities. In contrast, China has rapidly expanded its shipbuilding industry, now 200 times larger than the US, with government-owned shipyards capable of building both commercial and military vessels, offering greater flexibility and cost-effectiveness. This industrial capacity allows China to produce carriers much faster than the US and potentially outproduce them in a protracted conflict.

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