Yes, Paul. Well, first of all, I think when you're

driving that down that new Jersey Turnpike, when John is I think by the

end of this year, you're going to be paying $2 a handle for gasoline versus

380 right now. It's a typical cycle.

I'll be publishing that on Monday when we come back.

It's it's a normal cycle. But the key thing about crude oil is

we're learning the lessons of elasticity.

And it just reiterated that major trend in the world of the Western Hemisphere

becoming the price maker status. Now, you've seen how a lot of the

professionals like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs coming down their

estimates, but they're realizing what happened is that spike in prices is now

increasing that supply. Decreasing demand is adding to that

process of technology hurting both sides of supply, demand of crude oil.

So I guess we're not price a lot of risk this weekend even if something flares up

in the Gulf. But I think crude oil is heading going

to be heading down on the year with a lot of other commodities have already

done that. That means below $57 a barrel.

Right now we're 67. Well, as someone was observing to us

yesterday, Paul, the cease fire seems to be intact when the markets are closed

and when. Right.

Sorry. When the markets are open, when the

markets are closed is when we get these little skirmishes that somehow settle by

the time the trading week begins again. So Mike McGlone, um, with oil prices,

you know, kind of, uh, having come down, made the round trip from where they were

before the start of the war. The U.S.

is in its own special position because we're a net oil exporter.

But what about countries that import their oil?

How are they responding? How are they reacting?

How are they positioning themselves? And how do you think about the price of

oil, um, as they try to take advantage of this, uh, downdraft in prices?

Well, Karl, I'm glad you went. The consensus is they're all going to be

building up their reserves. That's why I find it kind of silly when

we talk about our reserve. We're a net exporter.

We just don't really need it anymore like we did in the past.

We'll be doing that. So there'll be some of a bit below, but

I think they'll get lower prices to do that.

Remember what's happened. We had drill at will.

Mr. Trump's mantra was kind of the US.

Now it's gone global. We can add Iran to that.

Iraq, UAE, Venezuela, the whole world's going to get plenty of oil.

It's just a question of the key theme I'm worried about.

Now. What typically makes oil make bottoms is

now for oil to just stay stable. The U.S.

stock market has to stay up if it drops down for a typical midterm election as

we head to the second half of this year, then instead of going down to 57 or 55,

it's going to go down to 40, which is the normal cycle.

Remember, this is very similar to 2008. We just didn't make as high as a high.

But big difference in 2008 when it went to 151, the big 47 and down to 40 is us

was a net importer and the stock market actually went down later near.

So this second half of the year is going to be very unique for all commodities.

And if stocks go down, we'll probably see pretty severe deflation in

commodities. On your global commodities uh dashboard,

Mike what's what are some of the key issues you're talking to clients about

these days? Well, the key theme so far, Paul, is

pump and dump. It started in the beginning here with

Bitcoin and U.S. natural gas and now includes gold,

silver, platinum, palladium, iron ore and corn.

The key ones that matter. Now copper might be next in crude oil

might be next. Just normal supply and demand.

We get crude oil probably down in there, but copper's main risk is if the stock

market goes down because it's a complete sock puppet to the stock market at this

moment only goes up when stocks go up, and when stocks go down, it goes down

more. What about gold?

How does gold fit into all of this? I mean, gold had a moment at the start

of the year, and since then it's been kind of Mayor

Scarlet, you nailed it. Those of us who Paul reminds have been

bullish gold forever. We had the best year last year in

history and environment without inflation.

That year was just phenomenal. And you're supposed to typically when

that happens it puts in peaks for years. So I think gold's going to knock around

a range and could get to 5000. It could get to 3000.

But knockout round in the range for the next.

Who knows how long. Similar to what crude oil has done for

last 20 years. All right, Mike, uh, Tom from the Upper

East Side writes in and asks, uh, what about Bitcoin?

We got below 60,000, traded as low as 57,000.

Uh, now we're back above 61. How does this thing play out?

Bit dog is a pretty severe bear market that faces massive supply surpluses and

all the cryptocurrencies. I look at my Bloomberg terminal and if

you put on a creepy there's hundreds of cryptocurrencies and all highly

correlated. So we have to flush those out.

We're in the process of doing that. And if the stock market goes down it's

going to go down a lot more. And I look over at the GLC o page on the

Bloomberg terminal. It's only has 20 or so commodities.

That's the difference. There's an unlimited supply.

These cryptocurrencies we're fleshing them out.

The key theme is the mania is over. So I guess I don't even need to ask

about the altcoins. The things that aren't Bitcoin but have

coin at the end of their names. Well, we could talk about Dogecoin.

I love Dogecoin, it's number nine. It's worth about $11 billion right now.

I really started beating on it. 2024 one is around $60 billion point.

And I was kind of the same value of B being y melon.

Yet being Y mine had $19 billion of revenue.

So we need to flush out all these excesses.

I think people are getting it and it's just a matter of time.

We kind of purge it. Once we purge it out, we'll find a

bottom. So I think Bitcoin's next key support

target is around 50,000. And if the stock market goes down and

the end of the year it might head towards 10,000.