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Everyone is selling. Whales aren't.

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Everyone is selling. Whales aren't.

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398 segments

0:00

Yesterday I told you about how Donald

0:01

Trump personally made billions of

0:03

dollars in crypto in 2025. The deeper

0:06

you dive into the report, the crazier it

0:08

gets. He made about 22,000

0:11

stock trades in 2025, roughly 60 trades

0:15

a day, all with impeccable market timing

0:18

around specific macro events. That's

0:22

just one of the amazing topics that

0:24

we're going to dive into here on The

0:25

Daily Wolf. Let's go.

0:33

What is up, everybody? Welcome to The

0:35

Daily Wolf on Yahoo Finance. I am your

0:37

host, Scott Melker, also known as The

0:39

Wolf of All Streets, and man, do we have

0:43

so many things to talk about today. This

0:48

is one of those days where I feel like

0:49

just going wildly off the cuff and

0:52

ranting and ignoring the actual news and

0:54

facts, but we will try to stick to them

0:56

because there are a lot of things that

0:58

we need to dive into right now. So,

1:00

first, we have to talk about the job

1:02

numbers, non-farm payrolls. Breaking.

1:05

The US economy. They could have actually

1:07

just stopped there.

1:08

Breaking. The US economy adds 57,000

1:11

jobs in June, well below expectations of

1:13

114,000. Uh-oh. The unemployment rate

1:16

fell to 4.2% below expectations of 4.3%.

1:20

Wait, that that's good.

1:21

Kind of some cross-currents here. May's

1:23

job number was also revised down by

1:26

43,000 jobs. The labor market remains in

1:29

a volatile situation. So, now,

1:33

we live in the upside down, if you've

1:35

ever seen Stranger Things, where bad

1:36

news is good news, and good news is bad

1:38

news, because bad news makes it more

1:39

likely that the Fed will cut instead of

1:41

hike, which means that we'll get more

1:43

liquidity, which means that markets

1:45

should be able to go up. So, getting

1:47

57,000 jobs instead of 114,000 seems

1:51

really bad, because that would be bad

1:53

for the people that are losing their

1:54

jobs, but it's actually really good,

1:55

because your stocks can likely go up

1:57

because now Fed Chairman Worsh has more

2:00

cover to cut jobs. Now, it's important

2:03

to remember

2:04

that these job numbers are completely

2:06

fake.

2:07

Oh, what's your source? I made it up.

2:09

Right? We saw under the Biden years

2:12

revisions as big as 880,000, 900,000

2:15

jobs at the end of the year, meaning

2:18

that when people reacted and markets

2:19

reacted in real time to the job numbers

2:21

they were getting and they were

2:22

completely fake and were revised down

2:24

while nobody was looking. Meaning that

2:26

it was a strong job market that they

2:28

were able to, you know, pump stocks on

2:30

and then all of a sudden by the end of

2:31

the year when nobody was looking, all of

2:33

those jobs disappeared. Well, in this

2:34

case we had a revision down of May,

2:37

43,000 jobs from 172 to 129. And April

2:41

reserved that revised down an additional

2:44

31,000

2:46

jobs. So, the numbers that markets react

2:49

to when they're presented are almost

2:52

always revised when nobody's looking.

2:56

So, apparently

2:57

markets cheer when people lose their

2:59

jobs. Imagine a a world where Worsh had

3:02

to walk down the street. I used to say

3:03

Powell, walk down the street in New York

3:05

City and say to people, "Listen, I know

3:07

that you like your job and I appreciate

3:10

that, but would you be willing to give

3:12

up that job to save the stock market?"

3:15

That's effectively what is happening

3:16

here and it is absolutely

3:20

wild. So, listen, we'll keep tracking

3:23

those numbers, but we know they're fake

3:24

and markets react to them anyway. So, my

3:27

next story here is one I've showed you

3:30

before, but I'm going to add to it. So,

3:31

we have obviously a historic outflow of

3:35

Bitcoin from spot ETFs. Bitcoin ETF

3:37

outflows hit 4.3 billion in June. We're

3:39

on another 10-day heater, although I

3:41

have a feeling that will reverse today.

3:43

Uh and over the last few months we've

3:45

seen billions and billions and billions

3:46

of outflows. But while retail and people

3:50

who've have ETFs are panicking and

3:53

puking their coins. I just want to show

3:55

you the data of something I keep

3:56

mentioning, which is this right here.

3:58

270,000 Bitcoin accumulated by whales at

4:01

59,000. Largest single accumulation

4:04

spike ever recorded on chain, bigger

4:07

than the COVID bottom, bigger than the

4:09

FTX bottom.

4:11

Right? So, ETF outflows hit 4.5 billion

4:14

in June. But the smart money, the whales

4:17

who sold above 120, these huge wallets,

4:20

are now buying back in the largest size

4:23

ever, which is something that we tend to

4:25

see at the bottom of markets and not at

4:29

the top. One more data point for my

4:31

theory, which could be completely wrong

4:34

because I have no crystal ball, I cannot

4:35

tell the future, that Bitcoin and the

4:37

crypto market broadly have been in a

4:39

bottoming process ever since we hit

4:42

60,000 last February. We're in one of

4:45

those rare moments now where we've had a

4:47

lot of {quote} bad news and the market

4:49

tends to absorb it. Price doesn't go

4:52

down any further.

4:54

Saylor is a perfect example, right? I

4:55

mean, we reached peak fear, uncertainty,

4:58

and doubt around Michael Saylor last

5:00

week. STR C was at 72 bucks last I

5:03

checked, it was trading around $90.

5:05

Easiest trade ever, right? $18 upside if

5:08

you listen to data and facts rather than

5:11

emotions and hysterics. And you got a

5:14

raised dividend

5:15

to 12% and I would venture to bet that

5:18

if Saylor was supposed to crash the

5:20

entire market, the fact that he did what

5:22

he did on Monday, which we covered, uh

5:24

gave the market some assurance and

5:27

kicked the can way down the road that we

5:28

won't even be talking about him very

5:30

soon, yet another bottom signal. Now,

5:33

listen, I didn't want to necessarily

5:35

talk about Trump again today, but uh the

5:37

market gods have blessed me with the

5:39

opportunity, so I wrote a very long

5:40

newsletter about it this morning.

5:42

Here it is, right here.

5:43

Trump made more from crypto

5:45

than Coinbase did. So, this was a fact I

5:47

did not share on the show yesterday

5:49

because I had not yet seen the chart.

5:51

That's my newsletter. You should sign up

5:53

for it. I write it five days a week and

5:54

that image is so good.

5:57

Right? But, here you go.

5:58

Trump out-earned biggest listed US

6:00

crypto firms in 2025.

6:03

Trump made 1.4 billion conservatively.

6:06

That's what's reported. Doesn't count

6:07

token sales. The family made about 2.2

6:10

2.3. Coinbase, which is the I believe

6:13

will be one of the 10 most important

6:14

companies probably uh on the stock

6:17

market, made 1.26

6:19

billion.

6:21

Donald Trump buys selling his interest

6:24

in crypto and making fees and licensing

6:26

his name made more than Coinbase last

6:29

year. But, that's not even really the

6:30

most astounding part.

6:32

Let's move over to the stonk market. We

6:34

call them stonks in crypto in case

6:36

you're wondering. It's a loving term.

6:38

Stonks.

6:39

Donald Trump declared making more than

6:41

22,000

6:44

stock transactions

6:46

in 2025 according to the Financial Times

6:49

analysis. His immediate predecessor Joe

6:51

Biden made 13 transactions over four

6:53

years. Uh that's cuz he was sleeping.

6:56

In his first term, Trump made 517.

7:01

So, listen. The insider trading is

7:04

illegal even for presidents and Nancy

7:06

Pelosi. And now I'm assuming that we

7:08

have clear evidence that Pelosi and

7:09

Trump probably just have the same stock

7:11

broker.

7:12

Right? But, I mean this is absolutely

7:14

insane. You're talking about 60 trades a

7:16

day every single day. Now, they came out

7:18

and said that this is automated. It's

7:20

consistent with direct indexing.

7:24

Uh but, first of all, politicians aren't

7:26

really supposed to trade and especially

7:28

on insider information. And the more

7:31

people dig into it and look at the

7:33

timing of the buys and sells, the more

7:35

gratuitous it becomes. He just doesn't

7:37

care. Like, it's inside trading and they

7:39

just don't care. And obviously, nobody's

7:40

going to go after them. So, it is what

7:42

it is. I mean, check this one out. The

7:44

day before Trump paused tariffs and sent

7:45

the S&P 500 up 9.5%

7:48

his investment accounts bought 327

7:51

stocks worth up to 12.8 million. It's

7:53

one of the biggest one-day market

7:54

rallies in history. The trades were

7:55

disclosed more than a year later.

7:57

All he was $200.

7:59

Parking tickets cost more than that. So,

8:01

he did something that was actually

8:03

wrong, knowing it was wrong, didn't want

8:05

to disclose it, and took the whopping

8:07

$200

8:09

penalty

8:10

as a result. Absolutely astounding.

8:13

There are hundreds of examples of these.

8:15

If you start digging into the internet,

8:16

new X accounts that are being launched

8:18

just for this, which I just find

8:20

amazing. Now,

8:22

a lot of the supporters have said, "Hey,

8:24

by the way, I'm non-political. Like, I

8:26

make fun of Nancy Pelosi's stock trades

8:27

just as much, in case you're wondering.

8:29

But,

8:30

people are saying, "Ah, that was then.

8:32

2025, not 2026."

8:34

There is some big news that broke today

8:35

that I'd like to show you. It's right

8:36

here. Donald Trump on Truth Social. He

8:38

truthed it out. How about this?

8:41

Micron, a great American company,

8:42

announced they're putting $250 million

8:44

into the Trump accounts for the future

8:46

benefit of children, and their stock

8:48

went up nine points today. Thank you,

8:50

Micron. President DJT. For the future

8:52

benefit of Donald J. Trump, who

8:54

purchased a large number of shares in

8:56

Micron stock right prior to that

8:57

announcement.

8:59

Nailed it.

9:01

Impeccable timing with no information at

9:03

all about what was likely to be

9:05

announced by his own self.

9:08

Right? Listen, like, it is what it is.

9:11

Uh

9:12

but, the you shouldn't be able to uh

9:14

defend this, if we're being quite

9:16

honest. Like, as a person who's pretty

9:18

much uh you know, non-political uh as

9:21

much as I can be, I can laugh at how

9:23

insane this is on both sides. But, man,

9:26

it would be amazing to see a law passed

9:29

uh by Congress and the government that

9:31

prevented people in public office from

9:35

trading at all. I think we would all

9:36

love to see it, uh but the people who

9:39

have to pass it would be them.

9:41

The ones who are benefiting from it. So,

9:43

I think it's highly unlikely. As my

9:44

guest on my 9:00 a.m. show this morning

9:46

he said, very wisely, he said, "What we

9:48

really need is a copy trading account

9:50

that

9:51

follows Donald Trump's trades in real

9:54

time." So, listen, a huge story

9:56

on the less gratuitously grifting side.

10:00

Robinhood accelerates global expansion

10:02

with Robinhood chain mainnet stock

10:04

tokens and jumping trading and new suite

10:06

of DeFi products. So, in case you missed

10:09

it, Robinhood is building the full stack

10:12

of crypto and DeFi products to add to

10:14

their centralized exchange. Another

10:16

example of the race to become the

10:18

everything app. So, they launched a

10:20

layer two here on Arbitrum, which I

10:23

definitely did not have on my bingo

10:25

card. And one of the most famous perp

10:27

decks that has lost a lot of its shine

10:29

in the hyperliquid days and such. dYdX

10:32

has rebranded to Arcus and launched

10:34

exclusively on Robinhood chain, which

10:37

will allow people to trade perps,

10:40

tokenize stocks, pre-IPO access, all the

10:42

things that we've been discussing over

10:44

the past few weeks. Interestingly, this

10:46

opens

10:48

Yeah, it's like 120 markets or something

10:50

to be able to trade all of these assets.

10:53

They'll be launching in Canada with

10:55

their acquisition of WonderFi, working

10:57

on Singapore. The kicker here is that

11:00

they've built the full stack, 7% yield

11:02

on USDG, the ability to trade everything

11:06

anytime, anywhere with leverage on

11:09

crypto rails. Uh

11:12

and we're still fighting about yield

11:14

and the Clarity Act and genius, right? I

11:16

mean, I told you about the fact that X

11:19

money is offering, I think it was a 6%

11:22

yield while we're fighting stablecoin

11:24

yield for retail. Well, part of this

11:26

announcement is a 7%

11:29

yield

11:30

using Robinhood. So, you'll be able to

11:34

earn that using their DeFi products by

11:36

lending around this, whether you like it

11:38

or not. The next story here

11:43

is one that's been long debated. The

11:45

story itself, no, but is a topic that

11:48

has been long debated and it's

11:49

re-igniting that argument. Venice AI

11:51

becomes unicorn with $65 million Series

11:53

A as its privacy-first AI platform takes

11:56

off. Great news, right? I think so. So,

11:58

Erik Voorhees long been a champion of

12:00

decentralization, a legend in the

12:02

Bitcoin and crypto space, absolutely

12:05

wants

12:07

to build this product the right way.

12:08

But, the interesting part is they raised

12:10

$65 million at a billion valuation

12:13

and it was equity.

12:14

And they have a token.

12:16

And one of the longest-standing debates

12:18

in crypto is how does value accrue to

12:21

token holders, especially when there's

12:24

equity attached. So, you basically end

12:26

up with two capital stacks, right? And

12:30

the way that this appears is equity is

12:32

first and the junior stack is the

12:34

already existing token. So, would you

12:37

rather hold the equity in a company or

12:40

the token that doesn't have the same

12:42

protections and it does not have the

12:44

same rights as the holders of the actual

12:49

equity equity. This is an argument as

12:51

old as time. Perhaps the biggest version

12:53

of this is whether you should hold

12:54

Ripple or whether you should hold the

12:56

XRP token. I'm not going to get deeply

12:59

into that one again here. I talked about

13:02

it a bit on my morning show. But, this

13:05

does re-ignite this debate that has been

13:08

ongoing. I personally would rather be an

13:11

equity holder with the protections and

13:13

the upside than a token holder if it's

13:15

going to be effectively the junior asset

13:17

in the capital stack. Now, Voorhees did

13:20

say that he was doing it because they

13:22

hold the bulk of the tokens and they

13:23

don't want to sell them off despite

13:26

VVV's 700% run. Investors get 8.9%

13:30

equity, a token grant, warrants. So, it

13:33

does tie the two together, but once

13:35

again, it has ignited a argument in the

13:37

crypto community about equity versus

13:40

tokens. And the the final story I want

13:42

to give here is an honorable mention.

13:43

OpenAI proposes 5% stake to Trump

13:46

administration to use Washington

13:47

pressure.

13:50

So, I I mean, I should have probably

13:52

lumped this in with the Trump story,

13:55

right? But this is so wild to me. It's

13:57

like we're having this horseshoe reach

13:59

around but between the communists and

14:02

the socialists and the MAGA Republicans

14:04

just shaking hands in the background

14:06

agreeing on the same thing and not

14:08

realizing it. Bernie Sanders has been

14:09

saying that the United States government

14:11

should take a stake given 50%, which is

14:13

much larger, and they should just take

14:15

it.

14:16

Uh which people think is nuts. It's

14:17

socialism. It's communism. But

14:19

apparently, if a country bribes the

14:21

administration with a 5% stake, that'll

14:24

go into a sovereign wealth fund. It's

14:25

not socialism or communism. It's just

14:27

good old-fashioned capitalism. Listen,

14:29

we've got years more of insider trading

14:33

coming from politicians here,

14:34

specifically from the Trump family.

14:36

It is what it is. Uh but I I think that

14:39

none of that is going to affect crypto

14:41

markets very long into the future. And

14:45

I'm starting to become even more

14:46

optimistic that we could be bottoming.

14:48

That's all I got for you today. I'll be

14:50

back on Monday cuz tomorrow's a holiday.

14:53

Peace.

Interactive Summary

This episode of The Daily Wolf covers a mix of economic data, crypto market trends, and political controversy. Host Scott Melker analyzes the recent US job numbers, interprets market reactions to 'bad news,' and discusses whale activity in Bitcoin. A major focus is placed on the reported stock and crypto trading activities of Donald Trump, highlighting the ethical concerns regarding insider trading and market timing. Finally, the show touches upon Robinhood's expansion into DeFi, the ongoing debate between equity and token ownership in AI startups, and political maneuvers involving OpenAI.

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