I'm Buying Every Share I Can
401 segments
What if I told you that there's an AI
tech giant hiding in plain [music]
sight? A company that builds the most
critical components for the AI
revolution, and it's even more
profitable than Nvidia. It's also
growing faster and priced cheaper than
almost any other AI company,
>> [music]
>> making this a great stock to get rich
without getting lucky. Your time is
valuable, so let's get right into it.
You probably already know the name, and
you might even own the stock, but
there's a good chance that you're
thinking about this company the wrong
way. Just like most Wall Street
analysts, last week Micron reported the
best quarter in their 48-year history.
Revenue came in at $41.5 billion for the
quarter, which is up by 74%
quarter-over-quarter
and 346%
year-over-year. Let me say that again,
Micron's revenue almost doubled in the
last 90 days, and it more than
quadrupled over the last year. And their
revenue guidance is $50 billion, which
would imply revenue growth of 342%
year-over-year for next quarter as well.
Gross margins came in at 84.9%.
That's not just higher than Nvidia's,
it's higher than most software companies
like Meta Platforms. In fact, it's the
highest gross margin that any physical
chipmaker has ever publicly reported.
When it comes to gross margins, Micron
is the current king. I've been covering
Micron for years now, and it's my second
best-performing stock of all time, only
behind Nvidia. Here's what I think most
Wall Street analysts have been missing
this entire time. The margins and the
revenues are not the story here. They're
the proof that memory is no longer
cyclical, and it's no longer a
commodity. On this latest earnings call,
Micron announced that they signed 16
strategic agreements with their largest
customers, all of which run through
2030. These deals are structured so that
customers either buy the chips that they
committed to at the price they agreed,
or they pay for the chips anyway. And to
secure their spot in line, those
customers paid Micron $18 billion
before a single chip was shipped. So,
companies aren't just paying Micron for
memory chips, they're paying to reserve
the right to buy those chips in the
first place years in advance. This is
why it's so important to understand a
company's products, not just their
profits. These contracts carry a
combined minimum of roughly $100 billion
in revenue at margins that are much
higher than at any point in Micron's
history. This is what I think the market
hasn't priced in yet. Over the next 5
years, Micron is contractually
guaranteed to earn their best margins
ever. But before we can dive into these
strategic contracts, we need to
understand why the biggest AI companies
on Earth are paying billions of dollars
just to reserve Micron's memory in the
first place. The science behind this
stock. So, let me show you why Micron is
still one of the most undervalued AI
companies on the market without all the
industry jargon. The Nvidia H100 is the
chip that trained most of the AI models
that we use today. It sits on a circuit
board that's roughly the size of a
textbook. It uses 700 watts of power,
which is about seven light bulbs worth.
And it can get so hot that the cooling
hardware can weigh more than the chip
itself. For years, Wall Street analysts
focused on the GPU, the chip that does
the number crunching and turned Nvidia
into the most valuable company on the
planet. But look at what surrounds it.
Arranged in a tight cluster around the
GPU are tiny towers of memory, each one
smaller than a fingertip, and each one
holding 16 GB of memory built in a
fundamentally different way than the
sticks of RAM that we cram into our home
computers. This is high-bandwidth
memory, or HBM, and it matters more than
almost anything else in the entire AI
buildout. Modern data centers don't
struggle to do the math behind AI. They
have thousands of interconnected GPUs
with thousands of compute cores each.
The real struggle is feeding those GPUs
data fast enough to keep them fully
utilized. An idle GPU isn't just wasting
time, it's burning money. Buying more
GPUs doesn't solve this problem. It just
makes the problem worse. So instead,
data centers need memory that can feed
every GPU as fast as those GPUs can
crunch the numbers. Which means the
memory needs to have very high
bandwidth. High bandwidth memory solves
this exact problem by stacking memory
vertically, eight to 16 chips high, kind
of like floors in a tiny skyscraper.
Instead of the data traveling along a
circuit board, it moves up and down this
tower of chips, and the path it takes is
16 times wider than the memory we put in
our PCs. If HBM is a tower of chips,
then the copper columns connecting them
are like high-speed elevators. Each
column is narrower than a single human
hair, and there are thousands of them
carrying data from each chip in the
tower in parallel. As a result, one H100
can move over 3 terabytes of data every
second. Or said in English, that's fast
enough to move around 600 full-length
movies between chips every single
second. At a high level, that's the
science. Now, let's get back to the
stock. High bandwidth memory isn't just
another component on Nvidia's newest
Blackwell chips. It's almost half the
total manufacturing cost. Memory's share
of the total manufacturing cost climbed
from about 20% of the Nvidia Ampere
A100s to roughly 45% of the Blackwell
B200s today. That's why I keep saying
that memory is no longer cyclical, and
it's not a commodity. It's one of the
most valuable parts of the entire AI
build-out, which is why Micron has
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Like I said at the start of the video,
Micron just reported their best quarter
ever. Revenues are up 346%
year-over-year. Non-GAAP gross margins
came in at 85% and they guided to $50
billion in revenue for next quarter.
Under normal circumstances, a report
like that would be the perfect time to
sell this kind of stock if memory was
still cyclical. Then, this would
definitely be near the top of the cycle
for sure. For most of Micron's history,
they had close to zero contracted
revenue. Every chip was sold based on
the monthly or quarterly spot price,
just like any other commodity. They had
no customer commitments, they never got
paid up front, and sales were never
guaranteed. If Micron's forecasts for
memory demand were wrong, then they paid
a hefty price. Either they made more
chips than they could sell, or they
wouldn't make enough and drive down the
returns of all the infrastructure they
invested in. And forecasts are almost
always wrong. But Micron just flipped
the entire script. They just announced
16 strategic customer agreements that
run through 2030. These are not ordinary
supply deals. They're structured as take
or pay, meaning customers either buy the
chips that they committed to, or they
pay for those chips anyway. There's no
cancel button. These [clears throat]
aren't small orders, either. The
companies signing these contracts are
the hyperscalers, companies like the
ones building data centers that run
ChatGPT, Google Gemini, Microsoft
Copilot, and Meta's AI infrastructure.
They're locking in their memory supply
years in advance because they can't
afford not to have it, especially when
their competition does. 14 of those
contracts carry a combined revenue
minimum of roughly $100 billion,
and to lock in their place in line,
those customers paid Micron a combined
$18 billion up front. That cash is
collateral. If a customer cancels,
Micron keeps the money. But this isn't
just Micron taking advantage of
desperate customers. These contracts are
a win-win situation. Micron gets a price
floor, guaranteed revenues regardless of
how the market shifts over time. But on
the flip side, their customers get a
price ceiling. They won't have to pay
insane prices if the memory shortage
keeps getting worse and supplies get
even more constrained. That's what makes
these contracts a solid long-term
business model. Both sides have a reason
to sign. I also want to emphasize that
the $100 billion
is the floor price. It's the worst price
that Micron will be paid, no matter what
happens in the market. That means more
than just guaranteed revenues. It means
guaranteed margins, margins well above
the peak quarterly margins from any of
their previous cycles. And the market
hasn't fully priced this in yet. For the
last two decades, analysts that were
covering Micron couldn't model next
year's revenue with any confidence. The
company had no backlog and spot prices
changed every quarter. So, financial
models went obsolete every few months.
That's why memory companies used to
trade at a steep discount to the rest of
the market. But, these contracts get rid
of that uncertainty for a third of
Micron's revenue, and a bigger
proportion as time goes on, while Wall
Street's models are still catching up.
Micron just went from zero contracted
revenue to a hundred billion dollar
backlog with eighteen billion dollars
already in the bank. Again, proving that
high bandwidth memory is not a cyclical
business. And now that you understand
the science behind this stock and why
this latest earnings call was so
important, let me tell you why I'm still
buying it, even though it's already a
ten bagger. And if you feel I've earned
it so far, consider hitting the like
button and subscribing to the channel.
That really helps me out and it lets me
know to make more deep dives like this.
Thanks. Now, let's talk about my
investment thesis for Micron. Micron
currently trades at roughly fourteen
times their projected FY26 earnings.
That number is twenty-two and a half for
Nvidia and thirty-one and a half for
Broadcom, meaning Micron trades at a
decent discount relative to other
trillion dollar chip companies. And
based on estimates for next year's
earnings growth, Micron's forward PE
ratio is just 5.5.
That number is over twenty for both
Nvidia and Broadcom, even though both
companies are still growing fast. Let me
say that again. Micron's earnings over
the next twelve months are growing so
much faster than their market cap that
their forward price to earnings ratio is
less than six, even though they're
posting 346%
revenue growth, 85% gross margins, and
have a hundred billion dollar backlog.
In my opinion, Micron is still so cheap
because the market is still modeling it
the old way. The cyclical chipmaker that
peaks and crashes based on commodity
pricing. That made sense for the last 20
years, but it doesn't make sense today.
And it definitely doesn't make sense in
a world where the DRAM market, which
includes high-bandwidth memory, is
expected to more than triple in size
over the next 7 years, which would be a
compound annual growth rate of 18.6%
almost 50% faster growth than the S&P
500. And Micron's leadership says that
the HBM market specifically will grow
more than twice as fast as that at
roughly 40% per year through at least
2028. Micron's HBM capacity is already
sold out through the end of 2027. And
they can still only fill about 60% of
what their biggest customers are asking
for. This is honestly one of the
strongest setups for long-term growth
that I've seen in years. A $100 billion
backlog. HBM supply sold out through
2027. Margin expansion from 39% to 85%
in just a few quarters. And the stock is
trading at under six times next year's
earnings. The biggest risk to Micron is
that all three major memory suppliers
are expanding capacity at the same time.
So, if AI spending does slow down,
supply could outpace demand. I
personally don't see that happening with
how much every hyperscaler is increasing
their CapEx budget year over year. But
even if it does, remember, Micron gets
their $100 billion
thanks to the take-or-pay structure of
their strategic contracts with $18
billion already in the bank. So, Micron
is positioned to get rich without
getting lucky. And so are Micron
shareholders. Let me point out one more
thing because it's too important to
leave out. Everything we've covered so
far is the base case. It doesn't account
for what could come next. The 16
strategic contracts cover about a third
of Micron's current production, but they
have four new fabs either under
construction today or breaking ground
right now. Every gigabyte of new
capacity that Micron brings online is
another contract waiting to be signed,
not just by existing customers, but by
others who already know the cost of
being left behind. And while Wall Street
analysts keep calling for AI spending to
slow down every single year,
hyperscalers keep spending more. They're
not cutting back. They're building data
centers faster than everyone predicted,
and every one of those data centers
needs more high-bandwidth memory.
There's also the demand side of the
story. Every major breakthrough of the
last 3 years has done the same thing.
It's made AI cheaper to run, which makes
more people use it for more use cases
more often, which drives total compute
demand even higher than before. So, the
more efficient AI gets, the better an
investment it becomes for those
providing it, which means memory demand
will keep accelerating with the next big
breakthrough and the one after that and
the one after that. None of that is in
today's models. None of that is in
Micron's current $100 billion backlog,
and none of that is baked into their
forward P/E ratio of just 5.5. I've been
covering Micron stock for years now, and
this is the best setup I've seen for
their long-term growth. That's why I'm
still dollar-cost averaging into the
stock before Wall Street finally catches
on. And if you want to see more stocks
that I'm buying to get rich without
getting lucky, check out this video
next. Either way, thanks for watching,
and until next time, this is ticker
symbol U. My name is Alex, reminding you
that the best investment you can make
is in you.
Ask follow-up questions or revisit key timestamps.
The video argues that Micron Technology is a highly undervalued player in the AI revolution, transitioning from a cyclical, commodity-based memory business to a stable, contract-driven powerhouse. By leveraging High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM) essential for modern AI GPUs, Micron has secured $100 billion in revenue through 'take-or-pay' agreements, with $18 billion already collected upfront. Despite posting record-breaking quarterly revenue growth of 346% and high profit margins, the market continues to price Micron as a traditional cyclical company. The author posits that the massive demand from hyperscalers for AI infrastructure ensures long-term growth, making the stock's current low forward P/E ratio a significant investment opportunity.
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