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I'm Buying Every Share I Can

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I'm Buying Every Share I Can

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401 segments

0:00

What if I told you that there's an AI

0:01

tech giant hiding in plain [music]

0:03

sight? A company that builds the most

0:05

critical components for the AI

0:07

revolution, and it's even more

0:09

profitable than Nvidia. It's also

0:11

growing faster and priced cheaper than

0:13

almost any other AI company,

0:15

>> [music]

0:15

>> making this a great stock to get rich

0:18

without getting lucky. Your time is

0:20

valuable, so let's get right into it.

0:22

You probably already know the name, and

0:24

you might even own the stock, but

0:26

there's a good chance that you're

0:28

thinking about this company the wrong

0:29

way. Just like most Wall Street

0:31

analysts, last week Micron reported the

0:34

best quarter in their 48-year history.

0:37

Revenue came in at $41.5 billion for the

0:40

quarter, which is up by 74%

0:43

quarter-over-quarter

0:44

and 346%

0:47

year-over-year. Let me say that again,

0:49

Micron's revenue almost doubled in the

0:51

last 90 days, and it more than

0:53

quadrupled over the last year. And their

0:56

revenue guidance is $50 billion, which

0:58

would imply revenue growth of 342%

1:02

year-over-year for next quarter as well.

1:04

Gross margins came in at 84.9%.

1:07

That's not just higher than Nvidia's,

1:09

it's higher than most software companies

1:11

like Meta Platforms. In fact, it's the

1:13

highest gross margin that any physical

1:15

chipmaker has ever publicly reported.

1:19

When it comes to gross margins, Micron

1:21

is the current king. I've been covering

1:23

Micron for years now, and it's my second

1:25

best-performing stock of all time, only

1:28

behind Nvidia. Here's what I think most

1:30

Wall Street analysts have been missing

1:32

this entire time. The margins and the

1:34

revenues are not the story here. They're

1:36

the proof that memory is no longer

1:38

cyclical, and it's no longer a

1:40

commodity. On this latest earnings call,

1:43

Micron announced that they signed 16

1:45

strategic agreements with their largest

1:47

customers, all of which run through

1:49

2030. These deals are structured so that

1:51

customers either buy the chips that they

1:53

committed to at the price they agreed,

1:55

or they pay for the chips anyway. And to

1:58

secure their spot in line, those

2:00

customers paid Micron $18 billion

2:03

before a single chip was shipped. So,

2:06

companies aren't just paying Micron for

2:08

memory chips, they're paying to reserve

2:10

the right to buy those chips in the

2:12

first place years in advance. This is

2:15

why it's so important to understand a

2:17

company's products, not just their

2:19

profits. These contracts carry a

2:21

combined minimum of roughly $100 billion

2:24

in revenue at margins that are much

2:26

higher than at any point in Micron's

2:29

history. This is what I think the market

2:31

hasn't priced in yet. Over the next 5

2:33

years, Micron is contractually

2:35

guaranteed to earn their best margins

2:38

ever. But before we can dive into these

2:40

strategic contracts, we need to

2:42

understand why the biggest AI companies

2:44

on Earth are paying billions of dollars

2:46

just to reserve Micron's memory in the

2:48

first place. The science behind this

2:50

stock. So, let me show you why Micron is

2:53

still one of the most undervalued AI

2:55

companies on the market without all the

2:57

industry jargon. The Nvidia H100 is the

3:00

chip that trained most of the AI models

3:02

that we use today. It sits on a circuit

3:05

board that's roughly the size of a

3:06

textbook. It uses 700 watts of power,

3:09

which is about seven light bulbs worth.

3:11

And it can get so hot that the cooling

3:14

hardware can weigh more than the chip

3:15

itself. For years, Wall Street analysts

3:18

focused on the GPU, the chip that does

3:20

the number crunching and turned Nvidia

3:22

into the most valuable company on the

3:24

planet. But look at what surrounds it.

3:27

Arranged in a tight cluster around the

3:28

GPU are tiny towers of memory, each one

3:32

smaller than a fingertip, and each one

3:34

holding 16 GB of memory built in a

3:37

fundamentally different way than the

3:39

sticks of RAM that we cram into our home

3:41

computers. This is high-bandwidth

3:43

memory, or HBM, and it matters more than

3:46

almost anything else in the entire AI

3:49

buildout. Modern data centers don't

3:51

struggle to do the math behind AI. They

3:53

have thousands of interconnected GPUs

3:56

with thousands of compute cores each.

3:58

The real struggle is feeding those GPUs

4:00

data fast enough to keep them fully

4:03

utilized. An idle GPU isn't just wasting

4:06

time, it's burning money. Buying more

4:08

GPUs doesn't solve this problem. It just

4:11

makes the problem worse. So instead,

4:14

data centers need memory that can feed

4:16

every GPU as fast as those GPUs can

4:19

crunch the numbers. Which means the

4:21

memory needs to have very high

4:23

bandwidth. High bandwidth memory solves

4:25

this exact problem by stacking memory

4:28

vertically, eight to 16 chips high, kind

4:30

of like floors in a tiny skyscraper.

4:33

Instead of the data traveling along a

4:35

circuit board, it moves up and down this

4:37

tower of chips, and the path it takes is

4:40

16 times wider than the memory we put in

4:42

our PCs. If HBM is a tower of chips,

4:46

then the copper columns connecting them

4:47

are like high-speed elevators. Each

4:50

column is narrower than a single human

4:52

hair, and there are thousands of them

4:54

carrying data from each chip in the

4:55

tower in parallel. As a result, one H100

4:59

can move over 3 terabytes of data every

5:02

second. Or said in English, that's fast

5:04

enough to move around 600 full-length

5:06

movies between chips every single

5:09

second. At a high level, that's the

5:11

science. Now, let's get back to the

5:13

stock. High bandwidth memory isn't just

5:16

another component on Nvidia's newest

5:18

Blackwell chips. It's almost half the

5:21

total manufacturing cost. Memory's share

5:23

of the total manufacturing cost climbed

5:26

from about 20% of the Nvidia Ampere

5:28

A100s to roughly 45% of the Blackwell

5:32

B200s today. That's why I keep saying

5:35

that memory is no longer cyclical, and

5:37

it's not a commodity. It's one of the

5:39

most valuable parts of the entire AI

5:42

build-out, which is why Micron has

5:44

become one of the the valuable companies

5:46

on the entire market. But there's

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for supporting the channel. All right.

6:52

Like I said at the start of the video,

6:54

Micron just reported their best quarter

6:56

ever. Revenues are up 346%

7:00

year-over-year. Non-GAAP gross margins

7:02

came in at 85% and they guided to $50

7:06

billion in revenue for next quarter.

7:08

Under normal circumstances, a report

7:10

like that would be the perfect time to

7:13

sell this kind of stock if memory was

7:15

still cyclical. Then, this would

7:17

definitely be near the top of the cycle

7:19

for sure. For most of Micron's history,

7:22

they had close to zero contracted

7:24

revenue. Every chip was sold based on

7:26

the monthly or quarterly spot price,

7:28

just like any other commodity. They had

7:30

no customer commitments, they never got

7:33

paid up front, and sales were never

7:35

guaranteed. If Micron's forecasts for

7:37

memory demand were wrong, then they paid

7:39

a hefty price. Either they made more

7:41

chips than they could sell, or they

7:43

wouldn't make enough and drive down the

7:45

returns of all the infrastructure they

7:47

invested in. And forecasts are almost

7:49

always wrong. But Micron just flipped

7:52

the entire script. They just announced

7:54

16 strategic customer agreements that

7:57

run through 2030. These are not ordinary

7:59

supply deals. They're structured as take

8:02

or pay, meaning customers either buy the

8:04

chips that they committed to, or they

8:06

pay for those chips anyway. There's no

8:08

cancel button. These [clears throat]

8:10

aren't small orders, either. The

8:12

companies signing these contracts are

8:13

the hyperscalers, companies like the

8:15

ones building data centers that run

8:17

ChatGPT, Google Gemini, Microsoft

8:20

Copilot, and Meta's AI infrastructure.

8:23

They're locking in their memory supply

8:24

years in advance because they can't

8:27

afford not to have it, especially when

8:29

their competition does. 14 of those

8:32

contracts carry a combined revenue

8:34

minimum of roughly $100 billion,

8:37

and to lock in their place in line,

8:39

those customers paid Micron a combined

8:41

$18 billion up front. That cash is

8:44

collateral. If a customer cancels,

8:46

Micron keeps the money. But this isn't

8:49

just Micron taking advantage of

8:50

desperate customers. These contracts are

8:53

a win-win situation. Micron gets a price

8:55

floor, guaranteed revenues regardless of

8:58

how the market shifts over time. But on

9:00

the flip side, their customers get a

9:02

price ceiling. They won't have to pay

9:04

insane prices if the memory shortage

9:06

keeps getting worse and supplies get

9:08

even more constrained. That's what makes

9:10

these contracts a solid long-term

9:12

business model. Both sides have a reason

9:14

to sign. I also want to emphasize that

9:16

the $100 billion

9:18

is the floor price. It's the worst price

9:20

that Micron will be paid, no matter what

9:22

happens in the market. That means more

9:24

than just guaranteed revenues. It means

9:27

guaranteed margins, margins well above

9:30

the peak quarterly margins from any of

9:32

their previous cycles. And the market

9:35

hasn't fully priced this in yet. For the

9:37

last two decades, analysts that were

9:39

covering Micron couldn't model next

9:41

year's revenue with any confidence. The

9:43

company had no backlog and spot prices

9:45

changed every quarter. So, financial

9:47

models went obsolete every few months.

9:50

That's why memory companies used to

9:52

trade at a steep discount to the rest of

9:54

the market. But, these contracts get rid

9:56

of that uncertainty for a third of

9:58

Micron's revenue, and a bigger

10:00

proportion as time goes on, while Wall

10:02

Street's models are still catching up.

10:04

Micron just went from zero contracted

10:06

revenue to a hundred billion dollar

10:09

backlog with eighteen billion dollars

10:11

already in the bank. Again, proving that

10:13

high bandwidth memory is not a cyclical

10:16

business. And now that you understand

10:18

the science behind this stock and why

10:20

this latest earnings call was so

10:21

important, let me tell you why I'm still

10:23

buying it, even though it's already a

10:25

ten bagger. And if you feel I've earned

10:27

it so far, consider hitting the like

10:29

button and subscribing to the channel.

10:31

That really helps me out and it lets me

10:33

know to make more deep dives like this.

10:36

Thanks. Now, let's talk about my

10:37

investment thesis for Micron. Micron

10:39

currently trades at roughly fourteen

10:41

times their projected FY26 earnings.

10:44

That number is twenty-two and a half for

10:46

Nvidia and thirty-one and a half for

10:49

Broadcom, meaning Micron trades at a

10:51

decent discount relative to other

10:53

trillion dollar chip companies. And

10:55

based on estimates for next year's

10:56

earnings growth, Micron's forward PE

10:59

ratio is just 5.5.

11:01

That number is over twenty for both

11:03

Nvidia and Broadcom, even though both

11:05

companies are still growing fast. Let me

11:08

say that again. Micron's earnings over

11:10

the next twelve months are growing so

11:12

much faster than their market cap that

11:14

their forward price to earnings ratio is

11:17

less than six, even though they're

11:19

posting 346%

11:21

revenue growth, 85% gross margins, and

11:24

have a hundred billion dollar backlog.

11:27

In my opinion, Micron is still so cheap

11:29

because the market is still modeling it

11:31

the old way. The cyclical chipmaker that

11:34

peaks and crashes based on commodity

11:36

pricing. That made sense for the last 20

11:38

years, but it doesn't make sense today.

11:41

And it definitely doesn't make sense in

11:43

a world where the DRAM market, which

11:45

includes high-bandwidth memory, is

11:47

expected to more than triple in size

11:48

over the next 7 years, which would be a

11:51

compound annual growth rate of 18.6%

11:55

almost 50% faster growth than the S&P

11:58

500. And Micron's leadership says that

12:00

the HBM market specifically will grow

12:03

more than twice as fast as that at

12:05

roughly 40% per year through at least

12:07

2028. Micron's HBM capacity is already

12:11

sold out through the end of 2027. And

12:14

they can still only fill about 60% of

12:16

what their biggest customers are asking

12:18

for. This is honestly one of the

12:20

strongest setups for long-term growth

12:22

that I've seen in years. A $100 billion

12:25

backlog. HBM supply sold out through

12:27

2027. Margin expansion from 39% to 85%

12:32

in just a few quarters. And the stock is

12:35

trading at under six times next year's

12:37

earnings. The biggest risk to Micron is

12:40

that all three major memory suppliers

12:42

are expanding capacity at the same time.

12:44

So, if AI spending does slow down,

12:47

supply could outpace demand. I

12:49

personally don't see that happening with

12:51

how much every hyperscaler is increasing

12:53

their CapEx budget year over year. But

12:56

even if it does, remember, Micron gets

12:58

their $100 billion

13:00

thanks to the take-or-pay structure of

13:02

their strategic contracts with $18

13:04

billion already in the bank. So, Micron

13:07

is positioned to get rich without

13:09

getting lucky. And so are Micron

13:11

shareholders. Let me point out one more

13:13

thing because it's too important to

13:15

leave out. Everything we've covered so

13:17

far is the base case. It doesn't account

13:19

for what could come next. The 16

13:21

strategic contracts cover about a third

13:24

of Micron's current production, but they

13:26

have four new fabs either under

13:27

construction today or breaking ground

13:29

right now. Every gigabyte of new

13:31

capacity that Micron brings online is

13:34

another contract waiting to be signed,

13:36

not just by existing customers, but by

13:38

others who already know the cost of

13:40

being left behind. And while Wall Street

13:42

analysts keep calling for AI spending to

13:45

slow down every single year,

13:47

hyperscalers keep spending more. They're

13:49

not cutting back. They're building data

13:51

centers faster than everyone predicted,

13:54

and every one of those data centers

13:56

needs more high-bandwidth memory.

13:58

There's also the demand side of the

13:59

story. Every major breakthrough of the

14:01

last 3 years has done the same thing.

14:04

It's made AI cheaper to run, which makes

14:06

more people use it for more use cases

14:09

more often, which drives total compute

14:11

demand even higher than before. So, the

14:14

more efficient AI gets, the better an

14:16

investment it becomes for those

14:18

providing it, which means memory demand

14:20

will keep accelerating with the next big

14:22

breakthrough and the one after that and

14:25

the one after that. None of that is in

14:27

today's models. None of that is in

14:29

Micron's current $100 billion backlog,

14:32

and none of that is baked into their

14:33

forward P/E ratio of just 5.5. I've been

14:37

covering Micron stock for years now, and

14:40

this is the best setup I've seen for

14:42

their long-term growth. That's why I'm

14:43

still dollar-cost averaging into the

14:45

stock before Wall Street finally catches

14:48

on. And if you want to see more stocks

14:50

that I'm buying to get rich without

14:52

getting lucky, check out this video

14:54

next. Either way, thanks for watching,

14:56

and until next time, this is ticker

14:58

symbol U. My name is Alex, reminding you

15:01

that the best investment you can make

15:03

is in you.

Interactive Summary

The video argues that Micron Technology is a highly undervalued player in the AI revolution, transitioning from a cyclical, commodity-based memory business to a stable, contract-driven powerhouse. By leveraging High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM) essential for modern AI GPUs, Micron has secured $100 billion in revenue through 'take-or-pay' agreements, with $18 billion already collected upfront. Despite posting record-breaking quarterly revenue growth of 346% and high profit margins, the market continues to price Micron as a traditional cyclical company. The author posits that the massive demand from hyperscalers for AI infrastructure ensures long-term growth, making the stock's current low forward P/E ratio a significant investment opportunity.

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