Forget the Fed put. Meet the Bessent put.
143 segments
He's trying to take a fire hose
essentially to an ocean right now.
>> I'm going to create an AI image of like
Besset with a fire hose like just
spraying money out all over the ocean
because I have to. Now, you have talked
to Secretary Bess before uh several
times. What do you think his next move
could be uh to try to tamp down yields?
>> Well, and I called this the Bessant put,
Sazi. This is You've heard of the Fed
put. This is the equivalent of the
Treasury's put. He called a Treasury
twist to try to put a ceiling on bond
yields to make sure that consumer
borrowing costs don't continue to move
higher and the stock market continues to
move up. However, I wonder if Pandora's
box has been opened here because
yesterday the secretary came out and
said, "We are willing to buy back more
than the 4 billion that we said we would
through November in terms of long-term
treasuries." So, does that mean they're
going to go up to 8 billion? Are they
gonna start uh uh reducing the size of
auctions for longerdated treasuries?
He's trying to take a fire hose
essentially to an ocean right now. And
that's why we're not seeing as much of a
reaction in the bond market. And so the
question is, yes, he has a big toolkit,
but there are limits to this toolkit.
He's he can't do what the Federal
Reserve does. Ultimately, this comes
down to the debt situation and Bessant
recognizes that because he did say
yesterday that he along with President
Trump and the OM director are going to
announce fiscal consolidation measures
either today or Monday, both on the
revenue side and the cost side. The
thing is that they're going to have to
do this through executive action because
there's no appetite in Congress right
now to do those hard reforms that are
needed. And quite frankly, there hasn't
been for years. So we do have a problem
on the fiscal side. Clearly Doge sort of
petered out. So I'm curious to hear what
he's going to dig into there. What ideas
the president has on this front. The
secretary also though thinks that we
need to grow ourselves out of the
situation. And that's when we come to
the AI story and the productivity that
is really going to be needed here to
help this economy.
>> Jed, I'm totally getting off here and
I'll give you credit for this. I'm going
to create an AI image of like Besset
with a fire hose like just spraying
money out all over the ocean because I
have to. But I will credit you with that
idea. Victoria, let me get over to you
here. Uh the other thing I'm I'm like
eating popcorn watching this is that
Besson isn't some uh academic, you know,
he's not he wasn't out there before
getting this gig writing uh 500page
white papers just to hear himself talk
and write like this guy was in the
markets involved, which leads me to
believe he's he's about to get really
aggressive here on yields.
Yeah, Brian, I think it's important the
the analogy that you guys are talking
about the fire hose to the ocean. I
think that was actually quite
intentional by Bessant. I don't think he
in his mind he said, "Look, I'm going to
double the size of these buybacks that
we're doing and this is going to
fundamentally change the market." I
think he's out there saying this is a
signal to the market. I'm letting you
know that I do have the capability to do
some things. I want you to know that I'm
watching. I don't think he believes that
the long end of the curve that the
yields are actually matching
fundamentals. I mean you are having this
odd divergence between economic
surprises coming down that index coming
down and yields moving higher. So in a
$40 trillion debt market to double that
small amount that he had there
relatively small I think he knew it
wasn't going to make long lasting change
but it does make people sit up and pay
attention. Obviously, it's what we've
been seeing all along and I think it's
just his warning shot of what could
happen going forward. So, I think that's
part of the reason we saw yields move
back up a little bit yesterday after the
fact. They realized that, you know,
look, these are off therun treasuries
that they're doing. It's 30-year. It's
not like the 10 year on the run. Um, so
the intervention that people are talking
about, I think is quite minimal, but I
do think it is very significant in terms
of messaging. Uh, Victoria, how much
longer could the the the stock market
laugh in the face of the bond market?
>> You know, they've done it for longer
than what I thought they would be doing
it. If you recall months back, we would
have said when the 10ear hits 450, the
equity market would probably get
extremely nervous. And we've actually
seen that over the course of the last
year. That's kind of been that line in
the sand for the equity market. And here
we are at 470. And the equity market,
yes, there's some volatility. We had the
VIX go up with a 16 handle, but it came
back down and the market seems to be
doing pretty well. As long as earnings
continue to do well, as long as we see
this double-digit earnings growth, as we
see profit margins hold up, and we don't
see a collapse in the labor market, I
think you have an equity market that is
going to continue on this bull run. Is
it going to be straight, you know, up
and to the right? No. There's going to
be some give and take, some
consolidations like we've seen over the
past weeks. Um, but I do think the bull
market still has some room to run if
earnings continue to do
Ask follow-up questions or revisit key timestamps.
The discussion focuses on Treasury Secretary Bessant's efforts to influence bond yields through a 'Treasury put' strategy, characterized by buybacks of long-term Treasuries. While the scale of intervention is relatively small compared to the $40 trillion debt market, experts view it as a significant messaging signal. Additionally, the conversation touches on the necessity of fiscal consolidation measures and the role of AI-driven productivity in long-term economic growth, while analyzing the resilience of the equity market despite rising bond yields.
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