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Forget the Fed put. Meet the Bessent put.

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Forget the Fed put. Meet the Bessent put.

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143 segments

0:00

He's trying to take a fire hose

0:02

essentially to an ocean right now.

0:05

>> I'm going to create an AI image of like

0:06

Besset with a fire hose like just

0:08

spraying money out all over the ocean

0:10

because I have to. Now, you have talked

0:12

to Secretary Bess before uh several

0:15

times. What do you think his next move

0:18

could be uh to try to tamp down yields?

0:21

>> Well, and I called this the Bessant put,

0:24

Sazi. This is You've heard of the Fed

0:26

put. This is the equivalent of the

0:28

Treasury's put. He called a Treasury

0:30

twist to try to put a ceiling on bond

0:33

yields to make sure that consumer

0:35

borrowing costs don't continue to move

0:37

higher and the stock market continues to

0:39

move up. However, I wonder if Pandora's

0:42

box has been opened here because

0:45

yesterday the secretary came out and

0:47

said, "We are willing to buy back more

0:49

than the 4 billion that we said we would

0:52

through November in terms of long-term

0:54

treasuries." So, does that mean they're

0:57

going to go up to 8 billion? Are they

0:59

gonna start uh uh reducing the size of

1:02

auctions for longerdated treasuries?

1:06

He's trying to take a fire hose

1:09

essentially to an ocean right now. And

1:12

that's why we're not seeing as much of a

1:14

reaction in the bond market. And so the

1:16

question is, yes, he has a big toolkit,

1:19

but there are limits to this toolkit.

1:21

He's he can't do what the Federal

1:23

Reserve does. Ultimately, this comes

1:25

down to the debt situation and Bessant

1:28

recognizes that because he did say

1:30

yesterday that he along with President

1:33

Trump and the OM director are going to

1:35

announce fiscal consolidation measures

1:38

either today or Monday, both on the

1:41

revenue side and the cost side. The

1:43

thing is that they're going to have to

1:45

do this through executive action because

1:46

there's no appetite in Congress right

1:48

now to do those hard reforms that are

1:51

needed. And quite frankly, there hasn't

1:52

been for years. So we do have a problem

1:56

on the fiscal side. Clearly Doge sort of

1:59

petered out. So I'm curious to hear what

2:02

he's going to dig into there. What ideas

2:04

the president has on this front. The

2:06

secretary also though thinks that we

2:08

need to grow ourselves out of the

2:10

situation. And that's when we come to

2:12

the AI story and the productivity that

2:14

is really going to be needed here to

2:17

help this economy.

2:18

>> Jed, I'm totally getting off here and

2:19

I'll give you credit for this. I'm going

2:20

to create an AI image of like Besset

2:22

with a fire hose like just spraying

2:23

money out all over the ocean because I

2:25

have to. But I will credit you with that

2:27

idea. Victoria, let me get over to you

2:28

here. Uh the other thing I'm I'm like

2:30

eating popcorn watching this is that

2:33

Besson isn't some uh academic, you know,

2:35

he's not he wasn't out there before

2:37

getting this gig writing uh 500page

2:38

white papers just to hear himself talk

2:40

and write like this guy was in the

2:42

markets involved, which leads me to

2:43

believe he's he's about to get really

2:45

aggressive here on yields.

2:47

Yeah, Brian, I think it's important the

2:49

the analogy that you guys are talking

2:50

about the fire hose to the ocean. I

2:52

think that was actually quite

2:53

intentional by Bessant. I don't think he

2:56

in his mind he said, "Look, I'm going to

2:58

double the size of these buybacks that

3:00

we're doing and this is going to

3:02

fundamentally change the market." I

3:04

think he's out there saying this is a

3:06

signal to the market. I'm letting you

3:08

know that I do have the capability to do

3:11

some things. I want you to know that I'm

3:12

watching. I don't think he believes that

3:15

the long end of the curve that the

3:17

yields are actually matching

3:19

fundamentals. I mean you are having this

3:21

odd divergence between economic

3:23

surprises coming down that index coming

3:26

down and yields moving higher. So in a

3:29

$40 trillion debt market to double that

3:33

small amount that he had there

3:34

relatively small I think he knew it

3:37

wasn't going to make long lasting change

3:39

but it does make people sit up and pay

3:41

attention. Obviously, it's what we've

3:42

been seeing all along and I think it's

3:45

just his warning shot of what could

3:47

happen going forward. So, I think that's

3:50

part of the reason we saw yields move

3:52

back up a little bit yesterday after the

3:54

fact. They realized that, you know,

3:55

look, these are off therun treasuries

3:58

that they're doing. It's 30-year. It's

4:00

not like the 10 year on the run. Um, so

4:03

the intervention that people are talking

4:05

about, I think is quite minimal, but I

4:07

do think it is very significant in terms

4:09

of messaging. Uh, Victoria, how much

4:11

longer could the the the stock market

4:13

laugh in the face of the bond market?

4:16

>> You know, they've done it for longer

4:17

than what I thought they would be doing

4:19

it. If you recall months back, we would

4:22

have said when the 10ear hits 450, the

4:24

equity market would probably get

4:26

extremely nervous. And we've actually

4:28

seen that over the course of the last

4:29

year. That's kind of been that line in

4:31

the sand for the equity market. And here

4:33

we are at 470. And the equity market,

4:35

yes, there's some volatility. We had the

4:37

VIX go up with a 16 handle, but it came

4:40

back down and the market seems to be

4:42

doing pretty well. As long as earnings

4:45

continue to do well, as long as we see

4:48

this double-digit earnings growth, as we

4:50

see profit margins hold up, and we don't

4:52

see a collapse in the labor market, I

4:55

think you have an equity market that is

4:57

going to continue on this bull run. Is

5:00

it going to be straight, you know, up

5:02

and to the right? No. There's going to

5:04

be some give and take, some

5:05

consolidations like we've seen over the

5:07

past weeks. Um, but I do think the bull

5:09

market still has some room to run if

5:11

earnings continue to do

Interactive Summary

The discussion focuses on Treasury Secretary Bessant's efforts to influence bond yields through a 'Treasury put' strategy, characterized by buybacks of long-term Treasuries. While the scale of intervention is relatively small compared to the $40 trillion debt market, experts view it as a significant messaging signal. Additionally, the conversation touches on the necessity of fiscal consolidation measures and the role of AI-driven productivity in long-term economic growth, while analyzing the resilience of the equity market despite rising bond yields.

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