I think we should look at this through the lens of right now.

Two things, leverage and time. Right.

You just cover time and, you know, does the president have time?

How long can it last? Iranians have to look at it the same

way. And the leverage in play is from the

U.S. side after the cease fire has been this

blockade on the Iranian side, it's to show they continue to control the

straits. And you're seeing those both play out.

And so what's the impact is, you know, clearly we've seen the numbers of ships,

right? 34 ships have turned around.

And remember, the U.S. blockade isn't on the Straits of Hormuz.

It's to keep anything from flowing into Iran or out.

And the idea is they've been getting a pass during the rest of the conflict and

letting their oil come out and getting money from that and just a growing

economy. And when you look at it, 90% of their

revenue that Iran gets comes from seaborne trade.

So the blockade has an impact, but it's not instant.

Each day that builds more and more and there's different estimates, but you're

talking about $400 million a day in impact to the Iranian economy.

So this is why time is important for anything but especially for a blockade,

because that builds over time. And when you compound that with that,

the Iranians had 50% inflation before the conflict started, that their steel

industry was decimated, that their Internet's been turned off and the

complications they just have with their people.

But as we've seen before, the Iranian leadership's concern isn't necessarily

with the people. We saw that in the protests there.

They're willing to hang on. So.

So in reality, who you know, how does this time thing play out as to do they

continue to let the blockade? You know, do the Iranians want to

continue to endure this blockade? Are they going to come to the table with

something that President Trump can agree with?

Well, I want to follow up on that, because you were talking about how much

it's costing Iran, but it's not free for the U.S.

either. And as as I said, we're going to expand

it. There's another carrier headed there.

And if we look at a prolonged, protracted conflict, the US does not

have a good history in wars of attrition or wars of insurgency or against

entrenched populations who have nothing left to lose.

So if it comes down to a waiting game, who wins that out?

Yes. So you're really talking about what's

the patience on the U.S. side.

Right. So what what what's clear, though, is

the U.S. is posturing, though, as if they're not

going to quit soon. Right.

You saw that they just moved another aircraft carrier strike group to the

region. That's just to say that if we go back to

strikes, you know, which is one of our options, we have the forces necessary to

do that. And they certainly have the forces in

place to do this blockade. I think that commitment and forces is

made now. I don't think you're going to see a

backing out of the blockade. It would take all the pressure off.

And then also added, remember that the Iranians have $100 billion of their

assets frozen along with sanctions. So, you know, we'll have to see if this

blockade does have an effect. It will over time, clearly.

But, you know, are the Iranian leadership just going to suffer through

this, thinking that they'll outlast the United States?

Will talk to us about the psychology of navigating the strait in the middle of

this conflict war as it ends. And the US is determined to get passage

opened up once again in this in a safe way.

But there is this fear of there being drones or these smaller minds with these

smaller boats. What's it going to take to assuage those

who are worried about navigating a vessel through the strait?

How do you know to to a degree of certainty that you can get a ship

through the strait without without hitting a mine or some other difficulty?

Well, right now we see that the straits Iran can let's let ships pass through in

their approval, but they're going not through the main channels.

This normally like a highway there where yeah I know this until this conflict,

but they usually go this way and now they're going this way, right?

Normally you go straight through the middle and you stay to the right and

when you come out, you stay to the right.

So it's like a highway, but it's very clear on navigational charts and and

that allows a lot of throughput. What Iran said is we've mined that area

in the middle. You have to now come closer to islands

so they can run their small boats out. So so what's going to assuage the

shipping companies, even when this ends, is is the strait clear of mines, which

you've heard the U.S. is even to this day working on

identifying and clearing mines there? And and then our insurance rates going

to get low enough. And that's going to mean that, you know,

they're not going to be worried about Iran attacking them because we do have a

lot of ships that are still stuck in inside the Gulf that that that are not

coming out until they know that their crews are going to be safe and that

their ships are going to be safe. This is why the president has been

asking other countries to make sure, you know, try to enlist their support in the

end in assuring and helping with any mine clearance that that that's needed

that's needed to assuage those mariners that it is safe to travel.

I really think, though, the key is an agreement with the Iranians said, you

know, we're not going to do anything to ships and then the mine clearance

becomes something that can be done administratively, not under the.

Pressure of, you know, further attacks and they can clear those a small strait

relatively quickly, you know, small passage area through the middle and then

widen that over time. Even if they managed to do that and if

the strait becomes nominally open, if you are asked to consult for Maersk or

one of these other big shipping companies or a captain called you and

said, do you think it's safe for me to take my crew through this strait?

Would you say yes or no? Well, right now, clearly they're voting

no, Right. And afterwards, I think it's all going

to depend on what they hear from the negotiating table.

You know, my sense is if there is a negotiated settlement, they're going to

say yes, and they're going to then they're going to watch and see that,

yes, there's no mines there. And the U.S.

gives assurances and the international community gives assurances that there's

no mines. And then I think you're going to see

them resume. But that doesn't instantly get all that

cargo to all the ports that they were going to.

There's a there's a time lag in all that.

And there's other experts that can talk about that.

But but at least, like you said, I do think that one of the things that is

somewhat surprising is the price of oil isn't as high as everyone would thought

it'd have been with the just talking. Yeah.

So, so, so so that is in essence giving, you know, at least the president and the

global community a little bit more time than they maybe would have had had not

been this much resilience in that in that energy market.

I got about a minute left, but I want to ask about the legacy of this.

And our colleague Michele Hussein was sitting down with Ambassador Wendy

Sherman, the former undersecretary of state, talking about the fact that now

this has happened, Iran has pulled this off.

There's going to be a legacy to that. There's going to be a global fear that

this could happen once again. How do you think about that, the case

that Iran has proved in doing this and what it means going forward even after

this conflict gets resolved? I think we saw this the beginning of

this when the Houthies closed the Red Sea.

Right. You had a not nation state seen, you

know, attacking ships in an international waterway.

Right. And we saw that that that was

detrimental. But we were able to go around Africa and

the supply chain was able to adjust. You don't have that option here.

And there's other passages in the world where you don't have that option.

We're going around is not so easy. What we don't want when this is over is

a change to the order that says one nation who lives on one side of a

international waterway can charge a toll or obstruct the free flow of commerce.

So I think it's what happens here has ramifications globally, not just in the

region.