HomeVideos

Stock Expert: Becoming Rich Is Simple, But You Won’t Do It!

Now Playing

Stock Expert: Becoming Rich Is Simple, But You Won’t Do It!

Transcript

3194 segments

0:00

Renting versus owning a home, the

0:01

biggest financial decision most people

0:02

make in their life. So, we're going to

0:04

talk about all of the unrecoverable

0:05

costs [music] of owning a home,

0:07

including property taxes, maintenance

0:08

costs, which is the one that I think

0:10

people underestimate the most. And then

0:11

there's also emergency costs. I've got a

0:13

whole stack of them, as well as a 5%

0:15

rule to figure out if renting is a

0:17

better financial decision. We'll go

0:18

through that. What else have we got?

0:19

>> So, this is something that people just

0:20

don't think enough about, which is the

0:22

top 10 financial mistakes that I think

0:24

people make. For example, tax planning

0:26

opportunities. Like, there are simple

0:28

things that people can do [music] to

0:29

minimize the amount of tax they're

0:30

paying, and we'll go through those. Ben

0:32

Felix's firm manages the money of more

0:33

than 3,000

0:35

people, ranging from people with huge

0:37

amounts of money and not so much money.

0:39

His whole thesis is giving people money

0:41

advice that is based on academic

0:44

research. Our brains, our psychology,

0:46

absolutely gets in the way of making

0:48

good long-term financial decisions. And

0:49

today, we're going to answer the big

0:51

money questions, like what should I

0:53

invest in? A lot of people believe they

0:55

need to have a lot of background

0:56

information before they can start

0:58

investing, but I would argue that people

1:00

who know just a little bit, they will be

1:01

better long-term investors. There's a

1:03

ton of evidence supporting that this

1:04

will outperform most other investment

1:06

strategies.

1:07

>> And also, what is the mentality, the

1:09

mindset of people that end up making

1:12

money over the long term?

1:13

>> Psychology is important for determining

1:14

what your financial goals are. So, this

1:16

is a framework that we developed to

1:18

elicit higher quality goals. What would

1:20

you say to young people that are

1:21

thinking about their financial strategy?

1:23

>> A lot of young people feel a lot of

1:24

pressure to save, but there is research

1:26

suggesting [music] that it's probably

1:28

suboptimal for young people to save,

1:30

which we'll talk more about later. And

1:31

then, in a world of AI where everything

1:33

is changing so quickly, what should I be

1:35

doing with my money right now? Ben Felix

1:37

has the answer.

1:40

This is super interesting to me. My team

1:42

gave me this report to show me how many

1:43

of you that watch this show subscribe,

1:44

and some of you have told us, according

1:46

to this, that you are unsubscribed from

1:48

the channel randomly. So, favor to ask

1:50

all of you, please could you check right

1:52

now if you've hit the subscribe button.

1:53

If you are a regular viewer of this show

1:54

and you like what we do here. We're

1:56

approaching quite a significant landmark

1:58

on this show in terms of a subscriber

1:59

number. [clears throat] So, if there was

2:01

simple free thing that you could do to

2:03

help us, my team, everyone here, to keep

2:05

this show free, to keep it improving

2:07

year over year and week over week, it is

2:09

just to hit that subscribe button and to

2:10

double check if you've hit it. Only

2:12

thing I'll ever ask of you.

2:13

Do we have a deal?

2:14

If you do it, I'll tell you what I'll

2:15

do. I'll make sure

2:17

every single week, every single month,

2:19

we fight harder and harder and harder

2:20

and harder to bring you the guests and

2:21

conversations that you want to hear. I

2:23

stayed true to that promise since the

2:24

very beginning of The Diary of a CEO,

2:25

and I will not let you down. Please help

2:28

us. Really appreciate it. Let's get on

2:30

with the show.

2:31

>> [music]

2:36

[music]

2:38

>> Ben,

2:39

there are lots of people out in the

2:41

world talking about personal finance and

2:42

investing and all these adjacent

2:44

subjects.

2:45

What is the approach you take that you

2:47

think is different to lots of the other

2:51

sort of finance experts that are on

2:53

YouTube that are giving people advice?

2:55

What I think, and the approach that I've

2:56

always tried to take, is what can we

2:58

take from academic literature, very

3:01

smart people who spent a lot of time

3:02

thinking about these things,

3:03

what can we take from them and apply to

3:05

making good financial decisions for a

3:07

typical person? And what are the key

3:09

questions that you've sought to answer

3:10

for the audiences that you have? Is

3:13

renting versus owning a home. So, that's

3:14

always been big. Asset allocation is

3:17

another big one. How much should you

3:18

invest of your of your long-term money

3:20

that you can afford to take some risk

3:22

with.

3:23

Another important question people wonder

3:24

about is,

3:26

why should I not do this other

3:27

investment strategy that seems very

3:29

attractive?

3:30

And who who are we appealing to with

3:32

this conversation? Is it just people

3:33

that have lots of money, or is it No, I

3:35

think these questions need to be

3:36

answered. I mean, the the renting versus

3:38

owning a home one is applicable to

3:39

pretty much everyone, because that is

3:41

the biggest financial decision most

3:42

households will make in their lives,

3:43

regardless of what their net worth is.

3:46

But investing, or what should you do

3:47

with your long-term investments, that's

3:49

applicable to anybody.

3:50

Anybody that's going to be saving for

3:51

their future, whether they have $10,000

3:54

or $10 million, the same principles

3:56

apply.

3:57

And how much of this

3:58

game of investing, making money, is

4:01

comes back to psychology?

4:03

So, I like to say investing's been

4:04

solved. We're going to use index funds.

4:06

That's it. The hard part is actually

4:08

doing that.

4:10

Because our brains, our psychology,

4:11

absolutely gets in the way of making

4:13

good long-term financial decisions.

4:15

Our brains are designed for survival.

4:19

They're not designed to thinking about

4:20

long-term abstract concepts like taking

4:23

your money today, investing in the stock

4:25

market, ignoring all the stuff that

4:27

happens in between, and then having

4:28

money left over later

4:30

to to fund your retirement. That's so

4:33

interesting, cuz a lot of the time

4:34

people talk about tactics and

4:35

strategies, but I guess underpinning

4:37

your ability to execute on any of those

4:38

tactics or strategies are one's own

4:40

psychology. And is there academic

4:42

research about the best sort of mental

4:45

approach to take towards money and

4:46

finance and investing? So, one of the

4:48

best approaches, and it's a little bit

4:49

counterintuitive, is to not look at your

4:51

investments. There is a an academic

4:53

paper showing that the more people look

4:56

at their investments, the less risk they

4:58

take, and the lower returns they earn.

5:01

Because when you look at your

5:02

investments every day, the stock market

5:04

goes up and down. We know that. If

5:06

you're looking every day at your

5:07

portfolio and it's down 5%, up 6%, and

5:09

going up and down all the time, that can

5:11

be very stressful, and it makes it seem

5:13

like the stock market is very risky.

5:15

And so, people will invest less in the

5:17

stock market. In reality, for for

5:20

long-term investors who can invest in

5:22

stocks, buy and hold for a very long

5:23

period of time, that they're a lot safer

5:25

than people think. Mhm. So,

5:26

[clears throat] we've got some props

5:28

here for some demonstrations we're going

5:30

to do. Could you just give explain to me

5:31

the high-level of what these things are

5:34

on the table and the different

5:34

frameworks we're going to go through?

5:36

Sure. So, we have a bunch of things

5:38

here.

5:39

Uh this is one of my favorites that I

5:42

bring up

5:43

in a lot of my videos. So, this is the

5:45

the PERMA model, which comes from

5:46

positive psychology. Psychology is

5:48

important for investing well, but it's

5:50

also important for figuring out what

5:52

your long-term investing strategy should

5:53

be. We'll go through that. What else

5:54

have we got here?

5:56

This is the top 10 financial mistakes

5:59

that I think people make. Uh this is the

6:02

the three steps for investing your first

6:03

$10,000. Okay. And we've got $10,000

6:06

there, so you're going to talk me

6:07

through how we do that as well.

6:09

>> all of the We're going to talk about all

6:10

of the unrecoverable costs.

6:12

Got a whole stack of them

6:14

that you incur when you own a home.

6:17

Okay. And I I I guess this begs the

6:18

question,

6:19

who is Ben Felix? What is your

6:21

background, and what is the education,

6:22

the reference points, the experiences

6:24

that you're drawing upon to give us this

6:26

information today? Probably where it

6:28

starts

6:29

for for being relevant is I I did a

6:32

degree in mechanical engineering at

6:33

Northeastern University.

6:36

And I say that's relevant because when I

6:38

came into finance, I wanted to approach

6:41

it like an engineer, and a lot of

6:43

finance, a lot of financial services of

6:45

of investing and wealth management is

6:47

not approached like an engineer. It's

6:49

approached like a I feel almost bad

6:52

saying this, but it's approached like a

6:53

like a car dealership, like selling

6:55

selling product. So, I was disappointed

6:57

in that and and had to find my find my

7:00

own way. So, they haven't got my best

7:02

interests at heart. In in a lot of

7:04

cases, I don't think so.

7:05

And I started spending a lot of time

7:07

reading through academic literature so

7:08

that I could be very confident and

7:10

comfortable that the advice that I was

7:11

giving to people was good, high-quality

7:13

advice. And where is the best place to

7:16

start?

7:17

Is it in the psychology? Is it one of

7:18

the one of these frameworks? Is it

7:19

somewhere else? Is there a background

7:20

understanding of the economy one needs

7:22

to

7:23

to get going? That is a great question.

7:25

I don't think so, and I think that's

7:27

where a lot of people get stuck, where

7:29

they believe they need to have a lot of

7:30

background information before they can

7:32

start investing.

7:33

Uh they may do research on specific

7:35

industries, they may look at like the

7:36

energy sector so they can build out an

7:38

energy portfolio as one example. But

7:41

investing the way that I would say is

7:43

sensible for most people, which is just

7:44

using low-cost index funds, capturing

7:46

market returns, the the market returns

7:48

have been there, and they're going to

7:49

continue to be there. They should

7:51

continue to be there in the long run.

7:53

Uh doing that doesn't require a lot of

7:55

background knowledge.

7:57

I would argue that people who know just

7:59

a little bit, just enough, that just

8:01

know that index funds are sensible, and

8:02

they have enough conviction they can

8:03

stick with that, they will be better

8:05

long-term investors

8:06

than someone who knows enough to hurt

8:08

themselves.

8:09

What would you say to young people that

8:10

are thinking about

8:12

their financial strategy? Would you say

8:14

that someone in their

8:17

early 20s, 21 years old, should adopt a

8:19

completely different approach to money

8:21

based on what you've just shown me,

8:23

versus someone that's 51 years old?

8:25

It's going to be different, for sure. I

8:27

I think, and this is a it's a tricky

8:29

subject, but a lot of young people feel

8:30

a lot of pressure to save.

8:32

And that might be saving for their

8:34

retirement, it might be saving to buy a

8:35

home, but they feel a lot of pressure

8:37

from their parents and just from society

8:39

in general that they need to be saving

8:41

money, and that if they're not saving

8:42

money, they're being irresponsible. But

8:43

again, if we come back to academic

8:45

research, there is research suggesting

8:47

that it it's probably suboptimal for

8:49

young people to save. General point

8:52

is that you should save more when you

8:53

have a higher income, and save less when

8:56

you have a lower income.

8:57

And what that ends up meaning is that

8:59

young people

9:01

may not need to save, or may not need to

9:02

save as much as they feel pressured to

9:04

save.

9:05

The reason this topic is tricky is that,

9:08

well what I just said is true,

9:10

it can cause bad habits.

9:12

Whereas people spend all of their

9:13

income, and then don't have that shift

9:16

towards saving at some point, then

9:18

they'll they'll end up in a difficult

9:19

position later on in life.

9:22

Someone who's 50,

9:23

it's going to depend on their situation.

9:25

If they're the person who I just

9:26

mentioned who never saved,

9:28

they're in a tough position, and then

9:29

they are going to need to save a lot in

9:31

order to have some wealth later on in

9:33

life.

9:34

But if they've already saved, and they

9:35

have wealth, then they can focus more on

9:38

some of these topics.

9:40

And you've got the the 10 money mistakes

9:42

people make here.

9:43

Can you run me through those ones, and

9:45

just let me know if any of them is

9:47

particularly pertinent or interesting

9:48

that we should dive deeper into? So,

9:50

this this one's controversial.

9:53

It's not earning enough money.

9:56

A A of people feel like they

9:58

don't have an option. That they're not

10:00

earning enough money because that's just

10:02

the way things are and there's nothing

10:04

that they can do about it.

10:05

I don't think that's necessarily true.

10:06

Investing in your human capital, and

10:08

that can be formal education, it can be

10:10

getting skills, it can be becoming an

10:12

entrepreneur. Those are all ways to make

10:14

your your own self

10:17

a more valuable asset, to increase the

10:19

value of your human capital, and allow

10:20

you to earn more money. So, that's

10:22

that's a big one. I think people who get

10:24

stuck in the

10:26

in the feeling or the thought that they

10:28

do not have the ability to increase

10:29

their income, and that this is just the

10:31

way things are, I think that could be

10:33

very problematic. I've always thought of

10:35

it across these sort of five buckets.

10:37

The first two buckets that we attempt to

10:39

fill when we're starting our careers are

10:41

our knowledge and then our skills. And

10:43

kind of like when knowledge is applied,

10:44

it becomes a skill. And these two first

10:46

buckets are so imperative because

10:48

they can almost never be unfilled.

10:51

Whereas the other three buckets, which

10:52

is your resources, your network, and

10:54

your reputation, you can have career

10:56

fluctuations and earthquakes that cause

10:58

those buckets to unfill. So, as like you

11:00

were saying earlier on about young

11:01

people, one of the things I've always

11:02

thought is like when you're young, just

11:03

like optimize for filling your knowledge

11:05

and skills as much as you possibly can.

11:07

And actually, I guess that the level of

11:08

nuance there is acquiring a rare but

11:12

complementary stack of knowledge and

11:14

skills that the market values. And I

11:17

think over the long term, you know, this

11:19

doesn't apply to everybody cuz things

11:20

happen in life and bad things can

11:22

happen, but over the long term, I think

11:24

life tends to land you pretty much in

11:27

and around the value of and the rarity

11:30

and the complement complementarity of

11:32

those knowledge and skills as it relates

11:33

to the market's demands. That's

11:35

absolutely true. There's data on this,

11:37

too, where we know that there is a

11:39

mechanical relationship, at least

11:40

historically. We can talk about the

11:42

future, but historically, there has been

11:43

a mechanical relationship between formal

11:46

education or trade education and

11:48

lifetime earnings.

11:50

And we also know that certain degree

11:52

types, like engineering, finance,

11:54

business, some other sciences have

11:57

higher lifetime earnings than other

11:58

degrees.

11:59

So, it's you're I think you're

12:00

absolutely right. There are and the hard

12:02

part is we don't know what exactly those

12:04

degrees and skills that are going to be

12:05

the highest paying in the future are

12:06

going to be. 10 years ago, we might have

12:08

said software developers. Today, we

12:09

might not. But even you as an example,

12:12

so you did engineering and then you did

12:14

finance. And now you've added this other

12:16

string to your bow, which is you know

12:17

how to make content on YouTube. And that

12:20

makes you as a finance expert and

12:22

professional and CIO so extremely rare.

12:26

It almost makes you like one of

12:28

100 on planet Earth, maybe.

12:31

And this is what I mean by rare and

12:33

complementary skills. You could have

12:34

just learned more finance. And I don't

12:36

think that would have moved you up this

12:37

sort of earning ladder. But because you

12:39

added this really rare skill of being

12:41

able to make content to your other skill

12:44

stack, I'm guessing it made you money.

12:47

It did. It has and I I continue to be

12:49

paid well and, you know, it was

12:53

Please don't, but if you were to go back

12:54

and watch my old videos, which are still

12:56

up, I'm so rigid and nervous and I when

13:00

I was. And it took probably years of

13:02

recording and we do a podcast, too, so

13:04

just being in front of the camera for me

13:06

to feel pretty good. I mean, I it

13:08

probably took me 3 years to smile on

13:10

camera. Really?

13:11

>> [laughter]

13:12

>> So, yes, that was a skill that I

13:13

acquired through just practice, I guess.

13:16

So, I say this because I really want

13:18

people to think about how rare their

13:19

skill stack is. It's not something we're

13:21

taught. And then also, one of the things

13:22

I noticed, I used to work in a a biotech

13:24

company for a little while while I was

13:26

in between things. And we were looking

13:28

for a writer, a biotech writer.

13:30

Now, the other writers that we'd hired

13:32

at our other companies might have been

13:34

paid, I don't know, $50,000, whatever it

13:35

is. For a biotech writer, we would pay

13:38

them a quarter of a million. And all the

13:40

only difference is the biotech writer

13:42

had like some base They didn't have to

13:44

go to medical school. They just needed

13:46

experience in writing about biotech.

13:48

Yeah. And it 5x their earnings. So, this

13:51

other point is, you might have a skill

13:52

stack, but are you selling them on the

13:55

right market? And even me, first part of

13:58

my career was marketing. I was helping

14:00

Uber and fizzy drinks company and dress

14:03

seller company sell their dresses.

14:05

As I just said, the second little stop I

14:08

took in my career was helping biotech

14:10

companies with marketing that are about

14:12

to IPO.

14:13

>> [laughter]

14:14

>> My first contract with one of those

14:15

companies was worth 8 million, 6 months'

14:17

work.

14:18

And I it made it was a real pivotal

14:20

moment in my career where I go, it's not

14:22

just the skills you have, it's like

14:23

where you the market and industry where

14:25

you sell those skills can wildly change

14:28

your your, as you say on that card, your

14:30

earning potential. Yeah. And as you say,

14:32

that this is something that you don't

14:34

have full control over because you could

14:36

do all those things and not find work as

14:37

a biotech writer, but putting yourself

14:39

in that position, I think, does increase

14:40

the odds. What's the second one you've

14:42

got there?

14:43

Second one is not saving enough.

14:48

Touched on this a little bit. Young

14:49

people maybe don't need to save, but at

14:51

some point, you do have to start saving.

14:53

And the tricky thing about saving is

14:55

that wealth compounds over time.

14:57

And if you're not saving enough, you're

14:58

missing out on compounding and it gets a

15:00

lot harder to catch up with the amount

15:02

of savings you would have otherwise had

15:04

if you'd started earlier.

15:06

So, that's a big one. And some people

15:08

will wake up when they're 50, 55, maybe

15:11

even 60 and realize they haven't saved

15:13

enough. But by that time,

15:15

there's nothing that you can do about it

15:16

or very little that you can do about it.

15:18

There's a lot of parallels with health

15:19

here where

15:55

[laughter]

16:56

[clears throat]

18:04

if you eat poorly and don't exercise,

18:06

you can

18:06

>> that

18:07

positive emotion

18:09

is one big piece of it. What does that

18:10

mean? It's literally enjoying what

18:12

you're doing and feeling good throughout

18:13

the day. Engagement,

18:15

you could probably argue that we're

18:17

getting some of that right now where

18:18

you're doing something that you enjoy

18:20

doing that's maybe a little bit

18:21

challenging, but it's your skill level.

18:23

It's the idea of getting into flow.

18:25

I I know I get that when I do podcast

18:28

interviews, when I do research, when I'm

18:29

sitting down and and writing a video

18:30

script. Mhm. Relationships

18:32

[clears throat] is is having good,

18:33

strong relationships with with people

18:36

who are close to you in your life and

18:37

that can be friends, it can be family

18:38

members, it can be colleagues.

18:40

Meaning is being part of something that

18:42

is bigger than yourself.

18:44

That can be a lot of different things.

18:45

For some people, it's religion. For some

18:47

people, it's community. For some people,

18:48

it's their own business. Mhm.

18:51

And accomplishment is achieving hard

18:54

things. Setting goals and achieving

18:56

them.

18:57

You're going to look at the items of the

18:58

PERMA model. You're going to look at

19:00

those as categories and think about what

19:02

other goals you may have that fit into

19:03

those categories.

19:05

That's called a categorical prompt. And

19:07

again, there's evidence behind that

19:08

helping people elicit more meaningful

19:10

goals.

19:11

So, one of the things I said is buy a

19:12

Ferrari. Again, these aren't my goals, I

19:13

don't care about Ferraris, but in case

19:14

they want to sponsor the podcast, then I

19:16

care about Ferraris.

19:17

But say the Ferrari thing,

19:19

do do I have to find where it sits with

19:21

in terms of positive emotion,

19:22

engagement, relationships, meaning,

19:24

accomplishment? It would be wise to and

19:25

this is why I think this framework is so

19:27

important because you might realize that

19:29

a Ferrari does not contribute to any of

19:30

these things. It might, though.

19:32

Like maybe you take it to the track and

19:33

you spend hours racing it. And that

19:36

would be engagement.

19:36

>> engagement.

19:38

Maybe you have a bunch of buddies who

19:39

have Ferraris and you want to be part of

19:40

that friend group.

19:42

So, that's relationships. Yeah. Okay. I

19:44

mean, positive emotions, but that might

19:45

only last a couple of days. Yeah, what's

19:46

the hedonic treadmill idea? That's

19:48

exactly it. Yeah.

19:49

And then accomplishment, I mean, it's

19:52

not really an acco- If it was a goal

19:53

that you've had since you were 5 years

19:55

old, maybe that you could call that

19:56

accomplishment, maybe. Okay, so I fit my

19:59

my financial goals, my life goals into

20:01

the PERMA model as a way to understand

20:04

what my financial goals should be. Yeah.

20:07

Okay. How many people in the general

20:09

public do you think have actually

20:10

thought about what a good life for them

20:12

looks like? Not enough. Not many. I

20:14

think everyone's people are so busy with

20:16

their day-to-day lives. I know this is

20:18

true for me and my family, too. It's

20:20

really, really hard to step back and

20:22

have this kind of thoughtful discussion

20:24

about what you actually want your life

20:25

to look like.

20:27

Cuz I was just thinking about that. I

20:28

was thinking I don't even know if I've

20:29

got um really clearly defined life goals

20:32

for myself. Like I think most of us just

20:34

kind of act on how we feel. Yeah.

20:37

And that can somewhat drift us towards

20:40

the short-term. Like if I just

20:42

Yeah, what what's going to make me feel

20:43

good today?

20:44

And do that every day. I don't know.

20:47

Some might argue that you have to be a

20:48

bit more long-term thinking.

20:50

It can help. It can help, right? Cuz it

20:51

it it can help you from making decisions

20:53

that you might regret in the future.

20:55

Mhm. Yeah, cuz when I look at this PERMA

20:57

model, there's some things on here that

20:58

I've optimized for, which have

20:59

sacrificed the other things that I care

21:00

>> That's it. That's it. Yeah. Like you

21:02

might have I might have over-indexed on

21:03

this, like

21:04

achieving things, but might have cost me

21:06

some relationships.

21:08

So what's the fourth mistake people

21:10

make? Yeah, so this is related to what

21:11

we were just talking about, but it's

21:13

it's overspending on the wrong things.

21:15

Okay.

21:17

When you think about what is a good life

21:18

for you, and you realize if you realize

21:21

that you're spending on things that are

21:22

not contributing to that, which is

21:24

resulting in you not being able to save

21:26

toward things that would contribute to

21:28

what you want your life to look like,

21:30

that's probably not a great position to

21:31

find yourself in.

21:32

So that could be spending $12 on a an

21:35

iced coffee every morning and not

21:37

enjoying it, cuz you could get positive

21:39

emotion out of that. But you're like

21:40

rushing to work, chugging down the $12

21:42

coffee every day.

21:43

That's probably not contributing to a

21:45

good life.

21:47

Number five might be

21:50

one of the bigger ones,

21:53

which is not taking investment risks.

21:57

And that's really the stock market has

21:59

delivered these incredible long-term

22:01

returns, and on expectation, it should

22:03

continue delivering strong returns for

22:06

investors. Not participating that in

22:08

that is a huge mistake, and it's a

22:10

mistake that many, many people make. A

22:12

lot of people don't invest in stocks at

22:13

all,

22:14

and a lot of people who do invest in the

22:16

stock market don't invest enough in

22:17

stocks. They have very conservative

22:19

portfolios. And that has a very large

22:22

implicit cost. By not participating in

22:24

the stock market when you could be,

22:26

you're giving up a huge amount of of

22:28

economic gain.

22:29

How do you quantify that for the average

22:30

person in terms of what kind of gain

22:33

they're giving up, or the size of the

22:34

gain they're giving up? Well, you can

22:35

look at the historical returns on

22:37

stocks,

22:38

uh and you can also look at the expected

22:40

returns

22:41

on stocks. So let's say it's uh let's

22:43

say it's 7%

22:45

that we expect stocks to turn in the

22:47

long run.

22:48

And if you could get 2% by sitting in

22:52

cash, that 5% difference is your

22:54

opportunity cost of not investing in the

22:56

stock market when you otherwise could

22:57

be.

22:58

And 5% compounded over the long term is

23:01

enormous.

23:03

So say I have $10,000

23:06

uh and I invest it

23:09

in

23:10

the stock market, and I'm getting what

23:11

did you say, 8%? 7 Say 7%.

23:14

How much money is that?

23:17

Let's have a look.

23:19

So I've done $10,000, which is what we

23:22

have here. Mhm. Invested in the stock

23:23

market at 7% return over 40 years,

23:26

that would be $150,000.

23:31

Do you know what's um Do you know what's

23:33

quite scary when I think about that? Is

23:34

does that kind of means that today if I

23:36

spend $10,000, I'm actually spending

23:39

$150,000.

23:41

Yes.

23:43

Which makes me not want to spend any

23:44

money on anything. Yeah.

23:46

Cuz if you buy I don't know what cost 10

23:47

What does What cost $10,000? Like a a

23:49

car, small car? Yeah, maybe. Yeah.

23:51

You're actually spending $150,000

23:54

when you factor in the fact that if you

23:55

put that $10,000 into the stock market,

23:58

you could have made 7% a year, and it

23:59

would have turned into $150,000. Yeah,

24:01

that's that's one side of the coin.

24:03

Yeah, I think you also have to think

24:04

about any enjoyment or utility that you

24:07

get out of that car. If that car lets

24:08

you drive to a job you couldn't have

24:10

otherwise done,

24:12

it may have a significant economic value

24:13

to you in the long run.

24:15

As one example. You know, I've got a

24:17

coffee here. Some people spend

24:19

$10 on a cup of coffee with frappachappa

24:22

toppings and all that stuff.

24:23

Looking at that over the long term,

24:26

in 40 years, if you'd not bought that

24:28

coffee and put it into the stock market

24:30

and got just 7% return,

24:32

you would have had $150.

24:35

So when you buy that $10 coffee, you're

24:37

actually theoretically

24:39

spending $150 in 40 years' time.

24:41

So you better really enjoy the coffee.

24:44

Is there a bit of a fear that it makes

24:45

us not want to spend money on

24:46

anything, and therefore we end up having

24:48

a shitty life in the near term? No, I I

24:50

think that's why this this framework

24:52

That's why the the PERMA framework for

24:53

thinking about these decisions is so

24:54

important, because you do want to have

24:56

positive emotion and engagement,

24:58

relationships, meaning, and

24:59

accomplishment. Those are all really,

25:00

really important. And yes, that money

25:02

could be worth more in the future, but

25:04

it can also be a worth a lot today if

25:06

you're optimizing on the right things.

25:09

What else? Number six.

25:11

It's another big one. So not taking

25:12

enough risk is is important. Taking the

25:14

wrong risks with your investments.

25:17

So I we we just ran some numbers about a

25:19

7% stock market return. You can

25:22

basically get that using an index fund.

25:25

The problem is a lot of people don't

25:26

invest in index funds.

25:28

They pick individual stocks hoping to

25:31

earn really high returns. They trade

25:33

individual stock options. Uh they trade

25:35

crypto tokens and all that kind of

25:37

stuff. And a lot of those types of risks

25:39

have negative expected returns, or they

25:41

have high costs if you're doing a lot of

25:43

trading.

25:44

And that can really erode long-term

25:46

investment growth.

25:49

What about buying a house?

25:52

Is that a good investment?

25:54

I wouldn't consider buying a house to

25:55

live in an investment. It's sort It's

25:58

sort of is. You get an asset,

26:01

but you're really you're buying an asset

26:03

that funds your housing consumption. It

26:05

kind of pays you a dividend that's sort

26:08

of like getting rent

26:10

from the house that you own.

26:12

When you do the side-by-side comparison,

26:13

which I think is the only way to think

26:14

about this,

26:15

if you compare buying a house, so that

26:18

means in Canada, you'd usually save up

26:21

for a 20% down payment. So you put 20%

26:23

down on your house.

26:25

Uh you take out a mortgage to finance

26:26

the rest.

26:27

You know, living in the house, you're

26:28

paying your mortgage payment, you're

26:30

paying for some maintenance costs,

26:31

you're paying for property taxes.

26:33

Alternatively, you could have rented the

26:36

house. That 20% that went into buying a

26:39

home could have been invested in the

26:41

stock market. So again, we're back to

26:42

the idea of opportunity costs.

26:44

And the other important thing here is

26:45

that renting typically has lower cash

26:48

flow costs than owning. So these are the

26:51

unrecoverable costs

26:53

of owning a home.

26:55

Mortgage interest.

26:56

So that's when you buy a house and you

26:57

borrow to to fund the purchase, you're

26:59

paying interest to the bank. That's a I

27:01

I call these unrecoverable costs. That's

27:03

money that you're paying

27:04

for the use of money in this case, and

27:06

you're not going to get those dollars

27:07

back. It's gone.

27:12

Opportunity costs. So that's what I just

27:14

mentioned. Whatever equity you have in a

27:16

home

27:17

is equity that you could have otherwise

27:19

invested in the stock market. The

27:21

capital portion, the principal, the the

27:23

price of homes has increased around

27:27

inflation at the rate of inflation,

27:28

maybe a little bit higher historically.

27:30

Stocks have far outpaced

27:32

inflation. So by having money sitting in

27:35

a house as opposed to invested in the

27:37

stock market, you have what is called an

27:39

opportunity cost.

27:40

You're not earning returns you could

27:42

have otherwise been earning.

27:43

So that opportunity cost is one of the

27:45

largest costs of owning a home.

27:49

So I mean, the mortgage interest,

27:51

the opportunity cost of equity,

27:54

property taxes are another big

27:55

unrecoverable cost. Property taxes vary

27:57

depending on where you are, but it's say

27:59

between 0.5% and 1%. Maybe some

28:02

sometimes a little bit higher. You get

28:04

utilities and some services in exchange

28:06

for it, but it's again, it's an

28:06

unrecoverable cost. You pay that, you've

28:08

got nothing left afterwards.

28:11

And then you've got maintenance costs.

28:13

Oh, this is the annoying one. This is

28:14

the It's It's the annoying one, and it's

28:16

the one that I think people

28:17

underestimate the most.

28:18

>> Mhm.

28:19

I started making content about renting

28:21

versus owning a home years ago.

28:23

I used to say 1% was a reasonable

28:25

estimate of maintenance costs, and

28:26

people would push back and say that's

28:27

way too high. There's a bunch of

28:29

academic literature on this, too, that's

28:31

says it could well be over 2%. I think

28:33

that's probably a more reasonable

28:34

estimate.

28:35

Having been a homeowner now for 6 years

28:38

after renting prior to that,

28:40

I'm fairly confident, at least in my

28:41

case, that maintenance costs are far

28:43

higher than 1 or 2% of the property

28:45

value per year. Yeah, I mean, I I bought

28:47

my first home a a while ago, and uh

28:51

hell, I I didn't think about the

28:52

gardening, and the pool pump gets

28:54

broken, and then

28:56

there's a crack in the the patio

28:57

outside, and then the heating system

28:59

breaks, and then

29:00

everything just seems to break.

29:02

>> And it's always breaking. It's always

29:03

breaking. Every time I go back there,

29:05

which is it's in a different country,

29:06

I'm the first week I'm just spent

29:08

looking at the things that have broken

29:09

since I was last year. Like making a

29:11

list of the new expenses, and it's never

29:13

cheap. No. And if I was renting, that

29:16

wouldn't be my problem. No. There's also

29:18

like another cost here which we don't

29:19

talk about, which is like the time you

29:21

waste

29:23

on the maintenance. Like when we think

29:27

of maintenance cost, I imagine people

29:28

are thinking about the fees to fix

29:30

things, but actually the time I spend

29:32

having phone calls and speaking to

29:34

people, for me is is worth a lot more

29:36

than just the costs.

29:38

But anyway, yeah, maintenance cost.

29:39

Yeah, the coordination is huge, and you

29:41

could outsource that, but that would be

29:43

expensive, and

29:45

depending on how valuable your time is,

29:46

it could make sense to outsource it. But

29:48

I I agree with you. I do the same thing.

29:49

I spend time on the phone finding which

29:51

contractor is going to come in and fix

29:52

this thing.

29:54

And then you have to wait for them, and

29:55

then maybe they're late.

29:57

Yeah.

29:58

So, that's maintenance costs.

30:00

We have emergency cost here, which is

30:02

really uh a subset of maintenance costs.

30:04

So, you can have big things, like the

30:05

roof needs to be redone, or the

30:07

foundation cracks, whatever. Those can

30:09

be very significant. And one of the

30:11

challenges with those types of big costs

30:13

is that you kind of have to have

30:14

liquidity available to fund them.

30:17

And that means that you have to have

30:18

cash sitting somewhere, or at least some

30:21

liquid assets sitting somewhere. So,

30:22

probably not invested in the stock

30:24

market, which also has an implied cost

30:26

to it.

30:27

Which is more opportunity cost, right?

30:28

>> More more opportunity cost, exactly. And

30:29

then this one's this one's interesting.

30:32

And And this is one that I don't think I

30:33

appreciated until I owned my own home,

30:35

which is renovation spending.

30:37

We talked on maintenance. When you fix

30:39

something in your house,

30:40

you don't just fix it to get it back to

30:42

the baseline level that it was at

30:43

before. Yeah.

30:44

>> You make it a little bit nicer. You're

30:45

right. I never did that when I was

30:47

renting. So, the side-by-side. So, you

30:50

run the side-by-side comparison.

30:52

You account for all of those

30:52

unrecoverable costs that the owner has.

30:54

You account for the renter investing in

30:56

the stock market and investing the cost

30:58

difference, the cash flow cost

30:59

difference between renting and owning

31:01

each month or or whatever frequency.

31:03

And what you'll find, and I've done this

31:05

with projections, so looking at expected

31:08

stock returns and expected real estate

31:09

appreciation, you can very easily show

31:11

that there is an equivalence.

31:13

There is a level of rent

31:16

where you are indifferent between

31:17

renting and owning. I did a video years

31:19

ago that has millions of views now,

31:22

where I I came up with this idea called

31:23

the 5% rule.

31:25

So, I took some of those costs. I took

31:26

property taxes, maintenance costs, and

31:29

the cost of capital, which is the the

31:31

opportunity cost and the cost of of

31:33

borrowing.

31:35

I wrapped all that up and said, "We've

31:37

got roughly 1% for property taxes,

31:39

roughly 1% for maintenance costs, which

31:41

is probably way too low as we just

31:42

talked about." And I said 3% for

31:44

opportunity cost, which I think is also

31:46

on the on the low end.

31:47

And you put all that together and you

31:49

get 5%. So, I said, "Okay, if you divide

31:53

the price of a home by 5% and then

31:56

divide that number by by 12, you will

31:58

get the monthly rent that has equivalent

32:01

that is equivalent to the unrecoverable

32:03

cost of owning that home."

32:05

Okay, so let's do that.

32:07

So, I'm thinking of buying a $300,000

32:09

house.

32:10

What what's the math that I need to do

32:11

to fit figure out if it's better to

32:13

rent? Multiply by 5%. And then divide by

32:15

by by divide that by 12.

32:17

Divide it by 12. Okay. You're brave. I

32:19

usually have a rule to never do math

32:21

live on a podcast.

32:22

>> edit, so just

32:23

>> [laughter]

32:25

>> Okay, the result is 1,250.

32:28

There you go. 1,250 is the equivalent

32:31

rent where you're roughly break even

32:33

between renting and owning. So, if I

32:35

could rent for 1,250 instead,

32:37

>> or less, or less, I should rent.

32:40

Renting is a better financial decision.

32:42

So, this is an important part of this

32:43

topic. We can show financial

32:45

equivalence. And then just that is

32:47

important. Like, we can show that there

32:48

is financial equivalence between renting

32:49

and owning. I've done more

32:52

uh robust versions of of this analysis

32:54

since then. We have PWL has a calculator

32:56

on our website where you can see the the

32:58

break even by putting specific numbers

32:59

in instead of just doing the rough rule

33:01

of thumb,

33:02

cuz things will change it. For example,

33:03

if your asset allocation is more

33:05

conservative or more aggressive, that

33:07

opportunity cost number can be

33:08

different.

33:09

If you're a taxable investor, meaning

33:11

that you're taxed on your investment

33:13

gains by investing in the stock market

33:15

or the bond market, your opportunity

33:16

cost decreases because the after-tax

33:19

expected return on stocks and bonds

33:20

decreases relative to uh homeownership.

33:23

5% is a very rough rule of

33:26

rule of thumb. Do you think for the

33:28

average young person, let's say

33:29

someone's under 25 years old, they

33:32

should, and they're thinking about

33:33

building their wealth over the long

33:34

term, do you think they should buy be

33:36

buying a house

33:37

as an investment, or should they be

33:39

doing something else? I think for young

33:41

people it's really tough, and it's tough

33:42

for a couple reasons. One is because

33:44

home prices are high. You have to save

33:46

up a lot of money to buy a house.

33:47

Another one is that it can limit your

33:49

mobility. We've seen in in Toronto, in

33:52

Canada, where I'm from,

33:54

uh prices, condo prices in particular,

33:56

have plummeted. They've fallen off of a

33:58

cliff. If you bought a condo in Toronto

34:01

and you get a job offer somewhere

34:03

outside of Canada,

34:04

what are you going to do with that condo

34:06

that's that's at a big loss? Mhm.

34:08

>> You're kind of stuck. Yeah. Or you're

34:10

have to try to rent it out, and now

34:11

you've got this this just difficult

34:13

situation to deal with. And plus there

34:15

are big transaction costs if you're if

34:17

you're selling a place. So, for young

34:19

people, I do think that homeownership

34:20

can be tricky because it can limit your

34:22

mobility,

34:23

your your ability to go and find maybe

34:25

higher-paying work. It introduces a risk

34:27

that you probably don't need in your

34:29

life because you may end up moving

34:31

somewhere else.

34:33

And then people often move up where they

34:36

want a condo today, but they're going to

34:37

want a house later. For my family, I I

34:39

met my wife, I was renting a place. The

34:41

first place we met in, the second place,

34:43

the third place, and a fourth place.

34:45

We're at the four different places as we

34:46

were having our family. We have four

34:48

kids. And so, our needs were changing

34:49

over time. We needed a bigger a bigger

34:51

condo, and then we had a townhouse, then

34:53

we had a house. Uh but we just

34:56

the lease ended and we gave notice and

34:58

we left. We found a better rental that

34:59

was more suitable for our needs. If we

35:01

had been homeowners, the amount we would

35:02

have paid in transaction costs to do

35:04

that would have been insane. Or we would

35:06

have had to buy the house that we were

35:07

going to have forever much earlier,

35:09

which would have introduced significant

35:10

opportunity costs. That's one of those

35:12

things that's just impossible to measure

35:13

in because it's so intangible, but like

35:15

the psychology of feeling like you can't

35:19

easily move.

35:20

And I see this a lot actually with

35:22

people that apply for jobs in our

35:23

company is

35:25

in the interview process they'll say,

35:26

"Well, I've just bought a house in

35:28

insert city."

35:29

And you can see this that sort of

35:30

psychology is is um holding them back

35:33

from taking an opportunity because

35:35

they've made a an investment in a

35:36

particular city.

35:38

And so, they might lose, as you say,

35:40

like an opportunity in New York or LA or

35:42

London because

35:44

mentally they feel committed to a place.

35:46

Yeah. Now, the flip side of that is that

35:48

if you're really sure that you wanted to

35:51

stay in one place,

35:52

one of the best ways to accomplish that

35:54

is by Who can be sure?

35:55

>> Yeah, you can't. But if if someone was

35:58

really sure, maybe someone has maybe

35:59

like me. I have four kids, they're all

36:01

in the same school. It's very unlikely

36:03

that we would move. The other big

36:05

mistake I think I made is I bought a

36:06

holiday home.

36:08

That was a terrible Well,

36:09

I shouldn't say terrible idea, but kind

36:11

of a terrible idea. In part because of

36:12

the same reason, in part because it

36:13

means you only go you only go on holiday

36:15

to one place.

36:16

>> [laughter]

36:16

>> Which is like defeats the point of a

36:18

holiday. Yeah. And it's I have not done

36:21

that, and the main reason is the mental

36:22

overhead. I don't like

36:24

having to think about one

36:26

property. Mhm.

36:27

>> [clears throat]

36:28

>> I can't imagine having to think about a

36:29

second one

36:30

that I'm not at.

36:31

>> That's a dumb idea. I don't know why I

36:32

did that.

36:33

I don't know why I did it, especially

36:34

when you're like young. It's like

36:36

the whole point is you can still walk up

36:37

mountains and do things. You don't want

36:39

to be sitting in a in the same house at

36:40

>> Yeah.

36:41

Are homeowners happier than renters?

36:44

Mhm.

36:46

Depends how you slice the data.

36:49

If you control for property types and

36:51

neighborhoods and all that kind of

36:52

stuff, no,

36:54

they're not. If you don't control for

36:55

those things, I think owned homes do

36:57

tend to be a little bit nicer and and

36:59

better maintained. They do tend to be in

37:01

better neighborhoods. So, uncontrolled,

37:04

renters are a little bit less happy.

37:05

There's a There's multiple studies on

37:07

this. Statistics Canada has a really

37:09

good one that does exactly that. They

37:10

have controlled and uncontrolled life

37:12

satisfaction differences for renters and

37:14

owners. If you're a professional who is

37:16

thinking about buying a house in a nice

37:18

neighborhood or renting a nice house in

37:20

a nice neighborhood,

37:22

it's unlikely that you'll be happier in

37:24

either case.

37:25

If you are forced to be a renter in a

37:27

not very nice neighborhood because all

37:29

you can afford, you may be less happy,

37:32

but it's not necessarily the renting

37:33

that's making you less happy. Is there

37:35

any particular group of people that you

37:36

think should be buying a house? Yeah, so

37:38

people who are very risk-averse, people

37:40

who want to stay in one place for a very

37:42

long time, because they have a family or

37:44

something.

37:44

>> Yep. Yeah. And you don't want to be

37:45

priced out of of of the market that you

37:47

live in. This did happen in in some

37:48

cities in Canada in recent history. It's

37:50

now reversed,

37:52

but there were people who were getting

37:53

priced out of their market. They've been

37:55

renters for a long time, and rents went

37:57

up so quickly that they they just

37:59

couldn't keep pace. And it depends on

38:01

your rental market. Some rental markets

38:02

are controlled where that's less of an

38:04

issue. So, you do have to think about

38:05

things like that. But yeah, if you want

38:07

to stay in one place, owning your home

38:09

is is the way to do that. But it's a

38:12

double-edged sword because if you

38:13

realize you want to leave,

38:15

you might be

38:16

you might be stuck. Uh and then the

38:18

other big one for who should own a home

38:20

is it a taxable investors with with high

38:22

tax rates. And again, that comes back to

38:24

the opportunity cost, where if you're

38:26

paying a lot of tax on your investments,

38:28

whereas real estate tends to be tax

38:30

preferred. In Canada, gains on your

38:31

primary residence are tax free.

38:33

US has a I believe an amount. And so,

38:36

that's that's another thing to think

38:37

about, where the opportunity cost

38:38

changes depending on your specific tax

38:40

situation. When we have these

38:41

conversations about buying a house or

38:43

not buying a house, one of the things I

38:44

see a lot in the comment section is

38:45

people um sharing their case studies of

38:48

them buying a house 30 years ago, and

38:50

now it went from

38:52

being worth $100,000 to $600,000.

38:55

And they're they're asserting that

38:57

that's evidence that it's a good idea.

38:59

You probably see this a lot.

39:01

>> is this is the thing. This is the

39:02

example. Uh and then everyone has the

39:04

family member that bought a house for

39:06

$70,000 and sold it for a million. I'm

39:09

just going to read you the top four

39:10

comments, and I'd like to get your

39:11

response on them. Now, the first one is,

39:13

"The not buying a house does not work in

39:15

the UK as 90% of rents are higher than a

39:17

mortgage cost. Also, if you want to

39:19

start a family, you need a stable place

39:21

to raise your children.

39:23

And with renting, you can be kicked out

39:25

within a few months' notice, and your

39:26

whole life could be turned upside down."

39:30

I personally think there are ways around

39:32

that, and I as I mentioned earlier, I

39:33

did rent for 6 years of my life with a

39:36

wife and an increasing number of kids.

39:39

The two things that I always made sure

39:41

to do were to rent from professional

39:43

landlords.

39:44

We did have one experience renting from

39:46

a a sort of mom-and-pop person who had

39:48

bought a condo and rented it out.

39:50

And that that wasn't great. But after

39:52

that we we were very careful about

39:53

vetting our landlords and only renting

39:55

from professionals. And then the other

39:57

thing that we did, which addresses at

39:59

least in Canada, addresses one of the

40:01

other points there, is we would sign

40:03

long leases.

40:04

If we want to stay in a house for a few

40:05

years, we would sign a multi-year lease.

40:08

And landlords do tend to to like that.

40:10

The other point that was was in there

40:11

that I think is really important is that

40:13

rents are higher than mortgage payments.

40:16

I think this is one of the biggest

40:17

mistakes that people make when they're

40:18

making the rent versus own comparison is

40:20

they'll say, this is my mortgage

40:22

payment, this is my rent. If the

40:24

mortgage payment is lower,

40:26

owning must be better.

40:27

But that's not the case. As we talked

40:28

about a minute ago, you have property

40:31

taxes, maintenance costs, potential

40:33

renovation spending that you wouldn't do

40:35

otherwise, and the opportunity cost of

40:37

of capital. When you add all that up,

40:39

the cost of owning a home is far more

40:43

than the mortgage payment.

40:44

This guy here said, I bought a house,

40:46

it's the best thing I ever did. It's

40:47

launched my mindset in new directions.

40:49

Remember that having your own space has

40:52

profound psychological impact and can be

40:55

life-changing for some of us

40:58

that want to live in a healthy

41:00

environment.

41:01

What do you make of that point? If it

41:03

have profound psychological impact.

41:05

>> If someone believes that it does, and

41:07

they've really taken the time to reflect

41:09

on their life and has decided that yes,

41:11

it it is in fact true that it has a had

41:13

a profound psychological impact, of

41:15

course that person should own a home.

41:17

Of course they should. Is it

41:18

Is it true for everybody?

41:21

I don't think so. Don said, my

41:22

experience, I purchased a house in 2013

41:25

with 20% down payment deposit. My total

41:27

payment including taxes, insurance, HOA

41:31

home owners insurance?

41:32

>> Yeah, yeah. insurance. Um is $1,800

41:36

a month. As of today, the exact same

41:38

house is renting for $4,000. The

41:40

property value has also gone up 3x. I'm

41:43

glad I bought my house.

41:44

Yes. So there are cases where

41:47

it a real estate allows you to use

41:49

leverage very easily as as Don

41:51

mentioned.

41:52

And if you end up buying in a market

41:53

that goes up a lot in a short period of

41:55

time, it can be really really good.

41:57

However, and this is what we've seen in

41:59

Canada more recently, it hasn't touched

42:01

other markets yet, although of course

42:02

the US has had their own declines and so

42:04

have other countries, but Canada is

42:06

right now in one of the biggest real

42:08

estate price drawdowns, when you adjust

42:10

for inflation, going back to 1975.

42:13

And so if you had bought, yes, 7 years

42:16

ago,

42:17

and then, well, and then looked at the

42:18

price in 2022, you'd think, wow, I'm a

42:20

genius. Of course everybody should buy.

42:22

But if you had bought in, I think it's

42:24

2021 was the was the kind of peak, and

42:26

you look at it today, you're thinking

42:28

like, wow, I've ruined my life.

42:30

>> [laughter]

42:31

>> So yes, there are examples like that,

42:32

for sure. But that that is not what

42:34

people should expect every time that

42:35

they purchase a home.

42:37

So are you saying that the future is not

42:38

going to be as

42:40

like as the past? Uh for this I know the

42:43

Canadian market best, but I think these

42:45

it generalizes outside of Canada. Where

42:47

we've seen record decreasing interest

42:50

rates. So that's that's changed a little

42:51

bit now, but for a period of time we had

42:52

interest rates going down down down. In

42:54

Canada we had a ton of immigration. I

42:56

have no problem with

42:58

immigrants, uh but we had levels of

43:00

immigration that were just not

43:01

compatible with the amount of housing

43:02

that we had in in Canada, which was

43:04

contributing to prices going

43:06

up. We we have have housing supply just

43:08

not growing uh quickly enough, which are

43:10

all things that Canada is addressing

43:11

now, but all that causes price cause

43:13

prices to go crazy, which is I think why

43:15

they've come down in such an extreme

43:17

way. So I'm not I'm not saying

43:18

necessarily that we're never going to

43:20

see high house prices again or house

43:22

prices going up at an extreme rate

43:23

again, but in Canada at least, that has

43:25

now normalized or at least started to

43:29

normalize. I don't think it's reasonable

43:30

to expect stock-like returns from real

43:34

estate forever, even though we did see

43:35

that for for some years.

43:37

So for most people then you think, if

43:39

their goal is to make money and they

43:41

care about mobility, being able to get

43:43

up and go if opportunity arises,

43:45

a better investment decision would

43:47

probably be just investing in an index

43:48

fund

43:50

which gives you exposure to the stock

43:51

market. Yeah, though I think the

43:53

mobility piece is key there, because

43:54

remember, just from a wealth

43:55

perspective, we can show that hey, these

43:57

are pretty close to equivalent. Mhm.

43:59

>> [clears throat]

43:59

>> But if mobility matters to you, yeah, I

44:00

think that that matters a lot. If you

44:02

have unique investment opportunities,

44:04

that that can be another reason where

44:05

your opportunity cost is really high.

44:07

Like I had an opportunity to buy equity

44:09

in my company years ago,

44:11

and

44:13

if I had been a homeowner at the I think

44:15

I actually had just bought a house, and

44:16

I think I even had to reduce the amount

44:17

of equity I bought because our I think

44:19

our well pump broke like around the same

44:22

anyway, it was a whole thing.

44:23

>> isn't it?

44:24

>> But that's like there's opportunity cost

44:25

in the stock market, which is, you know,

44:27

call it 7% or whatever, but there's

44:29

other opportunity costs that can be a

44:30

lot higher like in that specific

44:32

situation.

44:34

And the next one there is number seven.

44:37

Yeah.

44:38

Missing tax planning opportunities.

44:40

This is something I think I think people

44:41

just don't think enough about,

44:44

but it's not terribly complex, but there

44:48

are some simple things that people can

44:49

do to minimize the amount of tax they're

44:51

playing paying. For most people, it's

44:53

just optimally using things like in

44:55

Canada we have the RRSP and the TFSA, in

44:57

the US it's the the Roth and traditional

45:00

IRA and and 401Ks. Uh using those things

45:03

optimally make a lot of sense. So then

45:05

the rest other types of tax planning

45:08

tend to get more country-specific. There

45:10

tend to be lots of things for

45:11

particularly for higher income people

45:12

that you can do to pay a little bit less

45:14

tax. And I think What about for lower

45:15

income people?

45:17

For lower income people, the government

45:19

accounts that are provided uh are

45:21

>> ISA in the UK?

45:22

>> Yeah, exactly. Those are probably the

45:24

best thing for people to be focusing on.

45:26

But even then, I don't like people are

45:27

often not using them optimally. One of

45:29

the things people don't talk about

45:30

enough is all the ways that rich people

45:33

do things to avoid paying tax.

45:35

They have like they hire people so that

45:36

they don't have to pay tax. I hear about

45:38

all these crazy stories of like I've

45:40

started this business on the side here

45:41

so I can get real estate license. And if

45:42

I get a real estate license, I don't

45:44

have to pay the same tax on this thing

45:45

here. And I move the money around here

45:46

and I flip it around there and then I

45:48

don't have to pay any tax. Most people

45:50

like the average people don't have any

45:52

loopholes that they can they jump

45:54

through. Yeah, it's true.

45:56

And even one of the crazy ones I learned

45:58

about when I got some money was that you

46:00

can take a loan against your stocks

46:03

and there's no tax on the loan.

46:05

So if I have a million dollars of

46:07

Facebook stock, I can go to a bank and

46:09

get 500k in cash

46:13

loaned against that stock without having

46:15

to sell it. And then on that 500k, I

46:18

have no tax to pay.

46:19

And I can just hold that Facebook stock.

46:21

When it goes up to 2 million, I can go

46:23

back to the bank and say, give me

46:24

another 500k. You could. But if it goes

46:27

down, you get margin called and you have

46:28

to come up with the cash to

46:30

Don't they just sell? Don't they just

46:31

sell the stock? They might, but then

46:33

you're selling after it's

46:35

come down. So it's not risk-free. But

46:36

yeah, that is a thing that people do.

46:38

I guess everybody could do that, right?

46:39

I mean most people could, if they

46:40

invested in the the S&P 500, they could

46:43

go and get a loan against that

46:45

investment. And that loan would be

46:47

tax-free. Yep, same same rules for

46:50

everybody. But I would still say that

46:52

you're you're taking a lot of risk by

46:53

borrowing money against risky assets

46:55

like that. Mhm.

46:56

Okay, so tax planning, there's nothing

46:58

else to cover there in terms of the

47:00

average person. Yeah, I don't think so.

47:01

But it is an important thing for people

47:02

to think about if thinking about what

47:04

mistakes might I be making in my

47:05

financial plan,

47:07

they should definitely be thinking about

47:08

are there tax planning opportunities

47:09

that that I'm I'm missing. How would

47:10

they find out?

47:12

It's a tough one. A a good CPA. What's a

47:15

CPA? Uh

47:16

uh an accountant. A good tax

47:18

professional should be able to identify

47:19

tax plan planning opportunities for you.

47:21

Good financial planners similarly should

47:23

be able to identify good tax planning

47:25

opportunities for your situation. But as

47:26

you said earlier, the reality is there

47:28

aren't that many things that people can

47:30

be doing. And it's really things that

47:31

you can figure out how to optimize once,

47:34

and then you're kind of set.

47:36

Much of the reason most people haven't

47:37

posted content or built a personal brand

47:39

is because it's hard and it's

47:41

time-consuming. And we're all very very

47:43

busy. And if you've never posted

47:44

something before,

47:46

there's so many factors in your

47:48

psychology that stop you wanting to

47:50

post. What people will think of you. Am

47:52

I doing this right? Is the thing I'm

47:53

saying absolutely stupid? All of these

47:56

result in paralysis, which means you

47:58

don't post and your feed goes bad.

48:01

I'm an investor in a company called Stan

48:03

Store, which you've probably heard me

48:04

talk about. And what they've been

48:05

building is this new tool called Stanley

48:07

that uses AI, looks at your feed, looks

48:09

at your tone of voice, looks at your

48:10

history, looks at your best performing

48:12

posts and tells you what you should

48:14

post, makes those posts for you. You can

48:16

also you just use it for inspiration.

48:18

And sometimes what we need when we're

48:20

thinking about doing a post for our

48:21

social media channels is inspiration.

48:23

Building an audience has fundamentally

48:25

changed my life. And I think it could

48:26

change yours, too. So, I'm inviting you

48:29

to give this new tool a shot and let me

48:31

know what you think. All you have to do

48:33

is search coach.stan.store

48:35

now to get started. I run multiple

48:37

companies that have multiple sales

48:39

teams. And one of the things as a

48:40

founder of a company that's often

48:41

confusing is you find it hard to figure

48:43

out where sales are. So about 10 years

48:46

ago, I started using Pipedrive in my

48:47

former company. And it's also the reason

48:49

why I switched over all of my commercial

48:51

teams in my current media company called

48:52

steven.com to use Pipedrive as well. Not

48:54

only do they sponsor this show, but

48:55

they've been an incredibly effective way

48:57

of scaling our sales engine over the

48:58

years. Pipedrive is an easy-to-use

49:01

intelligent CRM. And at its very core,

49:03

it makes your sales process visible

49:06

through one dashboard, a visual pipeline

49:09

showing every deal, what stage it's in,

49:11

what needs to happen next, and it's all

49:13

in real time with no delay. It doesn't

49:15

magically close the deal for you, of

49:17

course, but it does replace complexity

49:19

with clarity. If you want to join over

49:21

100,000 companies already using

49:23

Pipedrive, you can use my link for a

49:24

30-day free trial with no credit card

49:27

payment needed. Head to

49:28

pipedrive.com/ceo

49:31

to get started. That's

49:32

pipedrive.com/ceo.

49:35

I'll see you over there.

49:37

Who does need a financial advisor?

49:40

Probably a lot of people. But the

49:43

financial advice profession has a lot of

49:46

challenges.

49:47

We're chatting about the the sales

49:50

nature of the financial services

49:51

industry.

49:52

And I do think that's a big problem.

49:54

Because if someone's has Here's Ben say,

49:56

"Okay."

49:57

Ben said I should have a financial

49:58

advisor.

49:59

And they go to a bank or they go even to

50:02

some random firm,

50:04

there's a good chance that they're going

50:06

to be sold products they don't need.

50:09

And I don't have a solution for that.

50:10

Like that's a It's It's a difficult

50:12

situation when that is the state of the

50:14

financial advice industry. I guess to

50:17

get around that one might ask their

50:18

friends and family who does their

50:20

financial planning and then go with a

50:22

trusted referral.

50:24

Yeah. But people often trust people that

50:27

aren't giving them great advice. Like

50:28

it's just really It's really

50:29

problematic.

50:31

I I think a lot of people can benefit

50:32

from financial advice. It's just finding

50:34

the right person. And a lot of people

50:36

don't need financial advice because you

50:38

do pay fees for it. What's the next one?

50:40

Number eight. Yeah. Eight is It's

50:42

kind of a similar discussion to what we

50:43

just talked about, but it's it's missing

50:45

out on estate planning. What does that

50:47

mean?

50:48

Figuring out how your assets are going

50:50

to be distributed to the people that you

50:52

want them to or the entities that you

50:54

want them to

50:55

when you die.

50:57

This is an interesting one cuz nobody's

50:58

Well, most people aren't expecting to

51:00

die

51:01

anytime soon. Yeah. So, they haven't

51:03

really thought much about this.

51:05

Yeah. And you know, some might also say,

51:07

"Listen, I'm I'm not going to be here,

51:08

so

51:09

why should I care?"

51:11

Especially people that I guess That's

51:12

the my mindset of someone that doesn't

51:13

have kids, but Yeah. It can cause a lot

51:15

of problems. If you don't think through

51:16

and plan for the way you want your

51:18

estate to be distributed, you can pay a

51:19

lot more tax than you otherwise would

51:21

have. And your estate can go to people

51:24

that you may not have wanted it to go

51:25

to. You can pay more tax.

51:27

If you don't have things set up

51:28

properly. And again, this is going to be

51:30

country specific. But yeah, there

51:32

there's cases where you would pay more

51:33

tax if things were not set up properly

51:35

than if they were. Do you think

51:37

everybody should write a will?

51:39

Everybody that has any dependents should

51:42

write a will. I've heard a an estate

51:43

planning lawyer joke that everybody has

51:45

a will.

51:46

But it's the government's default will,

51:48

which you may not actually agree with.

51:50

It's like prenups. Yeah, kind of like

51:52

that. Yeah. It's exactly like that. You

51:54

could say everybody should have a will

51:55

because it can help from having a big

51:57

mess for other people to clean up. But

51:59

for sure, if you have kids, if you have

52:00

dependents, I think having a will is

52:01

really important. And on that point of

52:03

prenups, number nine is about who you

52:05

marry.

52:07

Yeah, this is this is a tough one.

52:09

It's a tough one because

52:12

I mean, this is front of mind for me

52:13

because as you can see from these

52:14

photos, I just I just uh proposed to my

52:16

fiance.

52:17

>> Yeah. And um I mean, this is not the

52:19

ring, but cuz this is a bit extra. But

52:22

um That's awesome. Oh my god, they put

52:24

my face in the They didn't put my face

52:25

in the box. That's creepy. But yeah, so

52:27

why is this so important who you decide

52:29

to marry as it relates to how rich

52:31

you'll be or or won't be? Well, it's not

52:34

just how rich you'll be, it's how

52:35

satisfied you'll be

52:37

with your life and with your marriage.

52:40

Academic research has identified two

52:42

spending profiles that you can

52:44

categorize people into. One is

52:46

tightwads.

52:47

That's people who don't like to spend

52:48

money.

52:49

And one is spendthrifts. That's people

52:51

who do like to spend money. The names

52:52

are kind of funny, but that's just

52:53

That's what the research calls them.

52:56

And the crazy thing about this is that

52:59

tightwads and spendthrifts are more

53:01

likely to end up marrying each other

53:04

than to marrying someone who has the

53:06

same profile as them.

53:08

So, two A tightwad and a spendthrift are

53:10

more likely to get married than a

53:11

tightwad and a tightwad or a spendthrift

53:13

and a spendthrift. Why do you think that

53:14

is? The the research on this talks just

53:16

about kind of opposites attracting and

53:18

there may be some sort of thrill to the

53:19

to the differences

53:21

um initially.

53:22

But

53:23

tightwads and spendthrifts as they go

53:25

through their marriages do tend to be

53:27

less satisfied

53:29

in their marriages and have more marital

53:30

conflict around money.

53:32

And again, that's based on an academic

53:34

paper. Now, that's the reasons why the

53:37

marriage might not last, but in terms of

53:39

how it might impact your financial

53:41

success

53:42

If you really want to save, if you have

53:44

If you go through your goal-setting

53:46

exercise and your PERMA model

53:48

and you have have a vision for the life

53:50

that you want to live that requires

53:51

saving, and you have a spouse that wants

53:54

to spend a lot of money today

53:56

that can be very, very difficult. It can

53:58

make it a lot harder for you to achieve

53:59

your goals.

54:00

I don't think it's insurmountable. I

54:02

think a tightwad and a spendthrift can

54:04

work. I mean, it's not like all of them

54:05

end up getting divorced. But it does

54:08

require a different level of

54:09

coordination and communication and being

54:11

on the same page. Do you have to speak

54:13

to clients about this often?

54:15

I It It comes up a lot. We have lots of

54:18

clients who were single and end up

54:20

getting in relationships and then

54:21

getting married. And we have to all have

54:22

all kinds of conversations about

54:24

marriage contracts or prenups, um estate

54:26

planning. Do you think everybody should

54:28

get a prenup? Going back to what you

54:29

said earlier, where you said you you If

54:31

you don't write your own, the government

54:32

will give you theirs. Yeah. Which just

54:34

to simplify that

54:36

if you don't write your own prenup

54:38

then you are the default position is the

54:41

government will decide through the law

54:43

how your assets are divided at a time

54:46

when you get when you break up. Problem

54:48

is, people find prenups to be really

54:49

unromantic. That's right. And they also

54:52

think there's an implication that

54:54

we're assuming we're going to break up,

54:55

which is also not so sexy. Right. Do you

54:58

think people should get them?

55:00

If both partners are on the same page

55:02

and comfortable with it, it's not going

55:03

to cause a major rift. And if it does,

55:05

maybe that's a red flag. Do you know

55:06

what I mean? I wouldn't want to cause a

55:07

rift. Do you know what I mean? And it's

55:09

not to say that I'm just keeping all my

55:10

stuff and you're keeping yours. It's

55:12

just to say, "Let's agree now what would

55:14

happen in the like 50% probability that

55:18

this doesn't work out."

55:19

>> Yeah. We've seen both. We've seen

55:20

clients come up with very creative and

55:22

interesting

55:24

marriage contracts that have, you know,

55:25

specific formulas for how things are

55:27

going to work. And depending on how many

55:28

kids they have, it's you know, it's kind

55:29

of an interesting exercise. And in that

55:31

case, it was kind of fun. And they they

55:33

they were engaged in the process.

55:34

And it didn't cause an issue.

55:36

And we've also seen people who did not

55:37

have anything in place and have had

55:40

very bad divorce outcomes from a

55:42

financial perspective. Oh, I had a

55:44

friend go through a divorce recently.

55:45

And he's a very successful person. His

55:48

wife was there from the beginning. She

55:49

took looked after the family while he

55:51

was off gallivanting around the world

55:52

building his his businesses all over the

55:54

place. So, obviously she you know, they

55:57

She's contributed hugely to his success.

55:59

What I noticed though is

56:02

it's destroyed what could have otherwise

56:05

been a good relationship as they

56:07

separated. They now really, really hate

56:09

each other because lawyers have stood in

56:11

between both sides. Yeah. And basically

56:13

caused tension because that's their job.

56:15

They're going to get paid more. And her

56:17

lawyers are incentivized to squeeze

56:19

every single penny they can out of this

56:22

a separation. And so, I think he said

56:24

it'd been like six or seven years since

56:26

they decided to divorce. And he's still

56:28

in court arguing with lawyers

56:31

about how they separate. And it's just

56:33

ruined their relationship. They've got

56:34

two kids.

56:36

You just think, "Gosh, like if you had a

56:37

prenup, this would have been

56:39

quick and it could have saved the

56:40

relationship." Okay.

56:42

Anything else to say on this this point

56:44

of marriage incompatibility? The

56:46

academic research on this does have a a

56:48

short quiz. I don't know if we have it

56:50

kicking around anywhere here. I think

56:51

this is a It's called the tightwad and

56:53

spendthrift quiz developed by

56:55

researchers at Carnegie Mellon and the

56:57

University of Michigan. Yeah. This scale

57:00

measures the pain of paying, the

57:01

emotional distress some people feel when

57:03

spending money.

57:05

Uh and here's a quick DIY version of

57:07

that quiz. Question number one is you

57:09

see a high-quality coat on sale for

57:11

$100, which is usually $300. You need a

57:14

coat and you have the money. Do you buy

57:17

it? Answer A, no. $100 is still a lot of

57:19

money. I'll wait for a better deal. B,

57:22

yes, it's a great value. I need

57:23

something. C, yes, and I might buy a

57:26

scarf to match since I saved so much.

57:29

Which one are you? I mean, if I need the

57:30

coat, I'm B.

57:32

I think I'm C.

57:34

>> [laughter]

57:37

>> But actually, to be fair, I just don't

57:38

buy stuff, so I don't even know if I'd

57:40

buy it anyway. Question two.

57:43

You are at a restaurant with friends.

57:44

The bill is being split evenly, but you

57:46

ordered the cheapest item. How do you

57:48

feel?

57:50

A, physically pained. I'll likely

57:52

mention that I should pay less. B, a bit

57:54

annoyed, but I'll pay it to keep the

57:56

peace. Or C, fine. It all will even out

57:58

in the end.

58:01

I'm between B and C. Really? I I might I

58:03

might feel a little bit annoyed. Really?

58:05

But I wouldn't I wouldn't cause a fuss

58:06

about it. I'm C again. Fine, it'll even

58:08

out in the end.

58:09

Number three. Which statement describes

58:11

you best? A, I have trouble spending

58:14

money even on things I actually need. B,

58:16

I balance my spending and saving pretty

58:18

well. Or C, I often spend more than I

58:21

intended and regret it later.

58:24

I can be.

58:26

You said B, which is I balance my

58:27

spending and saving pretty well.

58:30

Um

58:32

I would say I'm C again.

58:34

But again, the caveat here is I actually

58:35

don't Hmm. I don't spend money on stuff

58:38

anymore. I don't buy stuff anymore.

58:40

>> [snorts]

58:41

>> But I can spend it on like ex-

58:42

travel and experiences and stuff. Yeah.

58:45

Last question. When you buy something

58:47

expensive, your primary emotion is A,

58:50

anxiety or regret. B, satisfaction in

58:52

the utility of the item. Or C,

58:54

excitement and a rush.

58:57

I think I'm B again.

58:59

I I reckon I'm B as well there.

59:00

So, scoring your results.

59:02

If you're mostly A's then you're a

59:04

tightwad. If you're mostly B's, you are

59:07

the unconflicted. And if you're mostly

59:09

C's, you are the spendthrift. So, I

59:12

guess with that, you you are a

59:14

unconflicted. You're in the middle. You

59:15

have a healthy relationship with money

59:17

where you can save when necessary, but

59:18

enjoy the fruits of your labor without

59:20

guilt. And I am a C, which is you feel

59:23

very little pain when spending. You

59:25

enjoy the moment, but you might struggle

59:26

with long-term saving goals or buyer's

59:28

remorse.

59:29

That's so true.

59:31

>> [laughter]

59:31

>> Everyone should do that at home. Okay,

59:33

that makes sense.

59:33

>> So, we we know that that tightwads and

59:36

spendthrifts are incompatible. I I do

59:38

think it's an interesting concept, like

59:41

how do you have that discussion with a

59:42

potential partner?

59:44

Or do you just observe it and kind of

59:45

infer? On on a date, you can say say to

59:48

your partner say, "Oh, there's this

59:49

great podcast on YouTube called The

59:50

Diary of a CEO. We should listen to it."

59:52

Then listen to this episode. They're

59:53

listening with you know right now if

59:55

this you've done this. And then just

59:56

play along. Play along with your

59:58

partner. Are you looking for your

59:59

partner to be the opposite then because

60:01

you said opposites attract? No. They

60:02

don't do well all the time.

60:04

Opposites end up together, but then have

60:07

conflict because of that. Oh, okay.

60:10

Yeah. Mm, interesting. [clears throat]

60:12

Yeah. I think if you're if you're a

60:14

tightwad,

60:15

being with the same is probably good. If

60:17

you're a spendthrift and you end up with

60:18

another spendthrift,

60:20

you'd be really careful about your like

60:21

finances. Yeah.

60:23

I don't think my partner's a

60:24

spendthrift. I think she's in the middle

60:25

with like you.

60:26

>> Yeah. Doesn't really care. Yeah. Which

60:28

is useful.

60:29

We we do have one more Okay. card in the

60:31

mistakes, which is under insuring

60:34

catastrophic risks.

60:37

And I think that's one, particularly for

60:38

people who are not currently financially

60:40

independent, that's really really

60:42

important. If if your household income

60:46

relies on your income

60:48

to maintain the lifestyle of the

60:50

household, it's really important to have

60:52

sufficient life insurance

60:54

where if you die, your human capital,

60:56

your ability to earn income in the

60:57

future is replaced by the insurance.

61:00

And also disability insurance, where if

61:02

you lose your ability to work, you have

61:04

insurance to replace that income. Do

61:06

many people think about this?

61:08

Probably not enough.

61:09

And it's cheap. Well, disability

61:11

insurance is not always cheap. Life

61:13

insurance is generally pretty cheap if

61:14

you're buying

61:15

low-cost term life insurance, which is

61:17

what most people need.

61:19

You made a video called the most

61:20

controversial paper in finance. Yeah.

61:23

What paper was that? That was a paper we

61:26

we didn't have it here, but that was a

61:27

paper on life cycle asset allocation.

61:31

What does that mean? So, it's answering

61:32

the question of

61:34

how should your mix of stocks and bonds

61:36

change throughout your lifestyle?

61:39

Conventional wisdom says that you should

61:41

start out riskier in stocks and then

61:43

move towards safer bonds as you get

61:45

older.

61:46

This paper took a huge amount of data.

61:49

They had data from 39 countries going

61:51

back as far as 1890, I believe. They

61:55

sampled from that large set of data to

61:57

simulate a million potential sort of

62:00

hypothetical lifetimes that you could

62:01

live through.

62:03

And then they asked the question of in

62:04

this simulated data,

62:06

which asset allocation gives the best

62:08

outcomes?

62:09

And they tested target date funds, which

62:12

increase the weight in bonds over time,

62:14

and those are a lot of people have those

62:16

through their retirement accounts.

62:18

So, it's just one fund and it starts out

62:20

when you're younger with more equities

62:21

and then transitions to bonds over time.

62:23

That's a target date fund.

62:25

They tested, I believe, a 60/40, 60%

62:27

stock, 40% bond asset allocation.

62:30

They might have been some other stuff in

62:31

there, too. They might have tested only

62:33

domestic stocks.

62:35

And what they find in this paper is that

62:37

the optimal portfolio from the

62:39

perspective of retirement consumption

62:42

utility and and and bequest utility,

62:45

What does that mean? It's like the

62:47

satisfaction you get from retirement

62:49

spending. Okay. Measured in a with a

62:51

formula so that it can be studied.

62:54

And then likewise for the amount of

62:55

money that you have left over at at

62:56

death.

62:57

They they measure the probability of

62:58

running out of money as well as a whole

63:00

bunch of different metrics they look at.

63:02

And they find that a 100% equity

63:04

portfolio

63:05

with

63:07

a big chunk in international stocks

63:09

is optimal.

63:11

It is a a 1/3 domestic, 2/3

63:14

international stocks. When you say

63:15

domestic, what does that mean? That's a

63:17

great question. So, the way they set up

63:19

domestic in the paper is that it it can

63:22

be any country. So, the way they do the

63:23

simulations is that for each draw, so

63:26

they're drawing it's on average 10 years

63:28

of returns. We're saying we're in the

63:30

US.

63:31

They'll draw the US returns measured in

63:33

US dollars for a 10-year block. That's

63:36

the domestic return.

63:38

And then the international block is

63:40

going to be 10 years on average of all

63:42

the other countries samples returns

63:44

measured in US dollar. So, I've got the

63:46

domestic return, the international

63:48

return. The next block might be 10 years

63:51

from Italy

63:52

measured in

63:53

whatever the Italian currency was at the

63:56

time. And then the international portion

63:58

is going to be all the other countries

63:59

excluding Italy measured in Italian

64:01

currency.

64:03

And so, they're weaving together all

64:04

these blocks. That's called bootstrap

64:05

simulation. So, domestic, to answer your

64:07

question, is whatever country you live

64:10

in. So, the outcome or the conclusion

64:12

from this should be that you should

64:13

invest

64:15

I mean, if we're following this and if

64:16

it was 100% accurate, well, 60% in

64:19

whatever country you live in, in the

64:21

stocks of whatever country you live in.

64:22

30%.

64:22

>> 30%.

64:23

>> Domestic. So, yeah, 1/3 domestic, 2/3

64:25

international. Okay, so if I'm in the

64:27

United States, one So, I get 30% of my

64:30

capital and invest it in the

64:33

American companies. Yeah. And then 60%

64:36

in international stocks. Yeah. Well,

64:38

67%, yeah. Yeah. So, that

64:41

one important finding in the paper

64:43

talked about in the video is that the

64:45

the curve for how optimal the domestic

64:49

amount is is pretty flat, if I remember

64:51

correctly, between sort of 10% and 50%.

64:54

So, they do say in the paper that for a

64:55

US investor, you don't necessarily have

64:58

to be a third domestic. Even if you're

65:00

50 or even if you're just market cap

65:01

weighted, which is currently around 60

65:03

or 65%, that's probably fine. But for a

65:06

Canadian investor

65:07

or someone who's in a country other than

65:09

the US, 1/3 in your domestic country

65:11

ends up being a pretty big home country

65:13

bias.

65:14

In these simulations, are they saying

65:15

that you need to invest in international

65:17

stocks because sometimes in the

65:18

simulations, your domestic country, your

65:21

home country, has problems?

65:23

Yeah. High inflation tends to be bad for

65:26

retirement consumption where you're

65:27

spending a lot more and for domestic

65:29

stock returns. And international stocks

65:31

protect against that.

65:33

So, it diversifies you a little bit.

65:34

Yeah, well, that's exactly what it is.

65:36

It's a diversification. And that paper

65:37

was it was controversial. I mean, we had

65:39

the co-author

65:41

on our podcast twice to talk about it,

65:43

but it it was met with a lot of

65:44

controversy from

65:46

everybody, from a lot of professionals,

65:48

from other academics. Why?

65:51

It's an extreme finding.

65:54

The conventional wisdom that you should

65:55

be allocating more toward bonds

65:56

throughout the life cycle is so

65:58

ingrained in everyone's thinking that a

66:01

finding like this that shows that that's

66:03

basically wrong, of course it's going to

66:05

be met with

66:06

controversy. But at the very least, I

66:08

think it's an interesting paper. It's

66:10

telling us that stocks are a little bit

66:11

safer

66:12

for long-term investors than we probably

66:13

thought.

66:14

And bonds, which are typically

66:16

considered safe, are actually a little

66:18

bit riskier than we may have thought for

66:19

long-term investors. The reason being

66:20

that during periods of high inflation,

66:23

bonds get absolutely decimated. What's a

66:25

bond?

66:26

A bond is a debt instrument. So, you're

66:28

effectively lending money to a

66:30

government, and you're receiving

66:31

interest payments over time, and then

66:33

your principal back at the end. What is

66:35

the the most important thing we haven't

66:37

talked about that your audience come to

66:38

you to understand? Oh. Well,

66:41

a lot of a lot of the things I talk

66:43

about are financial products that you

66:44

should not invest in. Okay, tell me some

66:46

of those. Which I always think is fun. A

66:48

big one that I spent quite a bit of time

66:50

on last year, I did three videos on it,

66:52

was on on covered calls. What's that?

66:54

So, that's where you you own a stock and

66:57

then you sell a call option, which is

66:58

the option to buy the stock. You're

67:00

selling that option to somebody else,

67:02

which gives you a

67:04

an option premium, and so you get some

67:06

income from having sold the call option.

67:08

But it also means that if the stock that

67:09

you own appreciates sufficiently, you

67:11

are required to sell it to the person

67:14

who bought the call option from you

67:16

at a at a preset price.

67:18

So, the stock is whatever, $40, and you

67:21

sold a call at $50. The stock goes to

67:23

$60, you have to sell it at 50. Mhm. So,

67:25

you're giving up a big chunk of your

67:27

upside.

67:28

And this plays on one of the big biases

67:30

that investors have, which is a

67:30

preference for income. It's the mental

67:33

accounting bias where investors separate

67:35

capital and income.

67:36

And so, there's a

67:38

huge proliferation now of covered call

67:40

products where they do that that

67:42

strategy that I that I just described

67:44

inside of an ETF.

67:45

They charge usually a

67:47

higher fee.

67:48

And these are being marketed really

67:49

heavily to investors on the premise that

67:51

you're going to get appreciation,

67:53

capital appreciation, and you're also

67:54

going to get income.

67:56

But I think my my view on this and what

67:58

I tried to explain in those videos is

67:59

that you're giving up

68:01

so much upside that I don't think most

68:03

investors realize that they're giving

68:04

up, that the implied cost of these

68:06

products is enormous. On that point of

68:08

fees, I've got this graph here, which I

68:10

think is pretty pertinent to what you're

68:11

saying.

68:12

Because when we start investing in ETFs

68:14

and various index funds, we often don't

68:17

think about fees.

68:19

You'll say, "Oh, 0.5%." You think,

68:21

"Okay, whatever. 0.5% is fine. 1% fine."

68:24

Small numbers.

68:25

But when you look at that graph, you see

68:27

how that can impact your outcome over

68:28

time.

68:29

Yeah.

68:30

Fees compound. Any rate of return that

68:32

compounds over long periods of time can

68:34

be very impactful in dollar terms.

68:37

Yeah. And and some people choose to keep

68:38

their money in cash.

68:41

Um because most of us are never educated

68:43

on the subject of inflation and what

68:45

inflation means. So, some of us, you

68:47

know, we might keep $10,000 under the

68:49

bed.

68:50

What do you say to those people?

68:51

Yeah, so inflation is it's everywhere.

68:54

It's it's been around for for

68:56

throughout history, and it's probably

68:58

not going to go away. We have central

69:00

bank policies in most developed

69:02

countries that actually target a low but

69:03

stable rate of inflation.

69:06

And there's there are reasons for that,

69:07

but what it means is that if you have

69:08

money sitting under your mattress, its

69:10

purchasing power will decrease over

69:12

time. And that can be very damaging to

69:14

your wealth.

69:15

You can maybe keep pace with inflation

69:18

using short-term government debt

69:20

instruments, which are going to pay you

69:21

a little bit of an interest rate.

69:23

But again, periods of high inflation can

69:25

cause even that to to decline in real

69:27

value. So, one of the best ways to fight

69:29

it fight inflation for a long-term

69:31

investors, something we've been talking

69:33

about, is just investing in low-cost

69:35

index funds to avoid the fee issue.

69:37

All right, and participate in the stock

69:38

market, which throughout history has far

69:40

outpaced inflation.

69:42

One of the smartest things a business

69:43

can do is build like a bigger company

69:46

without actually hiring like one. But,

69:49

the problem we all face is that most

69:50

companies don't have every skill in

69:52

house. So, when I look at the businesses

69:53

seeing real success today, the

69:55

consistent pattern with all of them is

69:57

how quickly they move. They bring in

69:59

specialists with skills in emerging

70:00

areas to keep themselves ahead. Even in

70:02

our company, we spent the last year

70:04

pulling in talent across areas like AI

70:06

native strategy, no-code builds, and

70:08

product workflows. And we find this

70:10

talent through our long-term partner

70:11

Fiverr Pro. Their premium service only

70:14

shows you vetted talent, so you've

70:15

always got the safeguard that anyone you

70:18

pull in to help you with a complex

70:20

project has the skills that you're after

70:22

and will deliver to the same high

70:24

standards as your internal team. And

70:26

most importantly, they'll keep up with

70:27

the pace. It's a simple strategy, but it

70:29

lets us stay agile without compromising

70:30

on quality. So, if you need these kind

70:32

of skills in your business, head to

70:33

pro.fiverr.com to find pioneering talent

70:36

to fill your business's gaps. That's

70:38

pro.fiverr.com.

70:40

This is something that I've made for

70:42

you. I realized that the Diary of a CEO

70:44

audience are strivers, whether it's in

70:45

business or health, we all have big

70:47

goals that we want to accomplish. And

70:49

one of the things I've learned is that

70:51

when you aim at the big big big goal, it

70:54

can feel incredibly

70:55

psychologically uncomfortable because

70:57

it's kind of like being stood at the

70:59

foot of Mount Everest and looking

71:00

upwards. The way to accomplish your

71:02

goals is by breaking them down into tiny

71:05

small steps, and we call this in our

71:07

team the 1%. And actually, this

71:08

philosophy is highly responsible for

71:11

much of our success here. So, what we've

71:13

done is that you at home can accomplish

71:15

any big goal that you have is we've made

71:17

these 1% diaries, and we released these

71:20

last year, and they all sold out. So, I

71:23

asked my team over and over again to

71:24

bring the diaries back, but also to

71:25

introduce some new colors and to make

71:27

some minor tweaks to the diary. So, now

71:29

we have a better range for you. So, if

71:33

you have a big goal in mind and you need

71:35

a framework and a process and some

71:37

motivation, then I highly recommend you

71:39

get one of these diaries before they all

71:41

sell out once again. And you can get

71:43

yours at the diary.com.

71:46

And if you want the link, the link is in

71:47

the description below.

71:49

Is this broadly accurate? This graph

71:51

here shows the impact of inflation on

71:53

cash kept under the mattress over 30

71:55

over 20 years, and you start with

71:57

$10,000

71:59

in terms of purchasing power, and 20

72:00

years later, if that cash is under the

72:01

mattress, you have $5,336.

72:05

It doesn't show me the inflation rate.

72:07

Oh, and that's at 3% inflation.

72:10

You're losing half of your money

72:12

effectively.

72:13

And the source here is St. James's

72:15

Place.

72:17

So, a lot of people who are just holding

72:18

on to cash don't really realize that

72:20

over a 20-year period, assuming a 3%

72:21

inflation rate, they're halving their

72:22

money. Uh it ties back to I don't

72:24

remember which number it was, but it

72:25

ties back to one of those biggest

72:26

mistakes in in personal finance we

72:28

talked about, which is

72:30

uh yeah, not not investing, not taking

72:32

the right kinds of risk with your

72:33

investments.

72:34

And just holding cash. Holding cash is

72:36

is it's in its own way taking a type of

72:39

risk.

72:40

You you you don't have an expected

72:42

return when you hold cash. You you in

72:44

real terms have a negative expected

72:45

return.

72:46

Do you think we should all be thinking

72:47

about retirement planning?

72:50

I think it ties into the PERMA thinking

72:53

and designing the life that you want to

72:54

live, but at some point it it I mean, at

72:57

some point we can't work anymore. It's

72:59

rare for somebody to be able to work

73:00

into their, you know, I don't know, 80s.

73:02

I think that it's it's sensible to plan

73:05

for for that. But, beyond that, a lot of

73:08

people don't want to have to work

73:09

forever. People might choose to work

73:12

forever, but they might choose to do

73:13

lower-paying work.

73:15

Uh but the idea that you will be forced

73:16

to work forever, I don't think is very

73:17

attractive to anyone. So, from that

73:19

perspective, building financial

73:20

independence by saving and planning for

73:22

retirement, yeah, I think it's important

73:23

for everyone everyone to think about. Is

73:25

there is the sort of social contract of

73:27

retirement changing based on how the

73:29

economy is changing? Cuz I hear a lot of

73:30

people saying you're not going to be

73:31

able to retire and get a pension because

73:33

there's not enough money or you're going

73:35

to have to work later than ever before.

73:37

I think the onus has been put back on

73:39

individuals.

73:41

The pensions used to be much more common

73:43

uh from companies and and governments.

73:46

So,

73:47

retirement's changed from that

73:48

perspective, for sure. But, I I I don't

73:50

know if we can say we're in a crisis. I

73:52

think people have more personal

73:53

responsibility now than they've had in

73:54

the past, but they also have better

73:56

tools than have historically been

73:58

available. 30 years ago, we we were just

74:00

starting to get low-cost index funds

74:02

proliferating and being readily

74:03

available to everybody. Prior to that,

74:05

you were paying 2% or more to invest in

74:07

a mutual fund. Mhm. So, the tools people

74:09

have available to them are are better

74:11

today than than they've been in the

74:12

past,

74:13

but it's also there's also a lot more

74:16

responsibility people have to take for

74:18

their own personal finances. You would

74:20

you're naming the things that people

74:21

shouldn't invest in.

74:23

The first is that cool

74:25

thing. Yeah, covered calls. Covered

74:27

calls. What else? Another one that I

74:29

think is really problematic is thematic

74:31

ETFs.

74:32

And so, that's like an AI ETF or I don't

74:35

know, a space or energy, like any any

74:38

specific

74:39

uh ETF that's targeting a specific

74:41

theme. Why?

74:43

What tends to happen with thematic ETFs

74:44

is that something becomes really hot.

74:47

So, maybe it's AI, maybe it's cannabis,

74:49

uh electric vehicles was another one.

74:51

Sustainable energy. Yeah, asset prices

74:53

in that theme go up because there's a

74:56

lot of interest in it. Everybody wants

74:57

to invest in that space.

75:01

Asset prices go up, an index provider

75:04

creates an index for that hot thing.

75:08

And then an ETF gets launched, but it

75:09

gets launched when the asset prices are

75:12

up here. Mhm. And what tends to happen

75:14

is the asset prices come down,

75:17

then the returns on thematic funds tend

75:19

to be very poor. Ah, okay.

75:21

Yeah, I think I was guilty of that in my

75:22

early career. It was like, "Oh my god,

75:24

sustainable energy ETF. I believe in

75:25

sustainable energy. I should invest in

75:27

that."

75:27

>> Yeah. But, you're right. They created

75:29

that when it was hot. So, you should

75:31

have invested, I guess you're saying,

75:33

just invest in the FTSE 100, the S&P 500

75:35

instead. Or technology, which is a

75:39

broader basket.

75:40

Technology's tough. Technology has

75:41

performed so incredibly well,

75:44

but it is still one sector. Okay. I have

75:47

trouble saying you should invest in

75:48

tech. If you had invested in tech for

75:50

the last 20 years,

75:52

well done.

75:53

Should you choose to invest only in tech

75:55

or have a big concentration in tech

75:56

today? I think that's a lot less

75:58

obvious.

75:59

One would say, "Well, look at all this

76:00

AI stuff. There's How do I invest in all

76:02

the AI stuff?"

76:03

A lot of it's private right now,

76:04

although a lot of the public companies

76:05

do own chunks of of some of these

76:07

private companies.

76:08

Uh we'll see how that plays out.

76:10

But, that's another one that's been

76:11

tough recently where a lot of investors

76:13

are interested in investing in in in in

76:15

investing in some of these private

76:16

companies. Uh a lot of them AI-related,

76:18

but SpaceX is another one.

76:20

It's really hard for retail investors to

76:21

get access to those types of things.

76:23

But, there are companies who are

76:25

creating products that say that they can

76:27

give you access to these to these

76:29

things. They're charging high fees. Uh

76:32

it's not obvious that they've been able

76:34

to buy the underlying securities that

76:36

they're saying they have access to at

76:37

good prices.

76:39

But, it's just another example of

76:40

financial companies

76:42

preying on the the desires and biases of

76:45

investors.

76:47

Financial firms are very good at seeing

76:49

what investors want, even if that thing

76:51

is not good for them, and then creating

76:53

a product to fulfill that desire.

76:57

So, if if someone listening now is

77:00

let's say they're 50 years old and

77:01

they've got

77:03

$20,000

77:05

in savings in cash,

77:08

and you had to be decisive. You don't

77:10

know the nuance and the the detail of

77:11

their life. You don't know their PERMA

77:13

framework necessarily.

77:14

But, your job was just to make the money

77:16

in the next 10 years.

77:18

What How do you think you'd allocate

77:19

that? Let's say $10,000, it's easier.

77:21

$10,000 in cash. How would you allocate

77:22

it? That's a

77:24

That's a tough question. I don't know if

77:25

it's answerable. Uh especially over 10

77:27

years, it's tough.

77:28

What about 20 years?

77:31

>> [laughter]

77:32

>> If they have a long time horizon, so I I

77:34

can tell you personally,

77:36

I I like to invest in stocks.

77:38

I I have a a globally diversified stock

77:41

portfolio with a Canadian home country

77:42

bias, kind of like what that that paper

77:44

the controversial paper found.

77:46

Uh we were doing that prior to that

77:49

paper coming out.

77:50

Uh but, I think that general concept of

77:52

a globally diversified portfolio, maybe

77:54

with some home country bias,

77:56

makes a lot of sense for most people,

77:58

including for retirees. But, there are

78:00

so many like, what's what's his risk

78:02

tolerance? If he's going to panic when

78:04

the market goes down and sell

78:05

everything, then it wasn't a very good

78:07

idea, and he's not going to get the

78:08

outcome but the good long-term outcome

78:10

they may have otherwise gotten. And

78:11

would you go all in on stocks? All at

78:14

once?

78:15

Yeah. Like dollar-cost averaging versus

78:17

lump sum? Yeah, like how would you

78:18

invest would you go 100% in stocks or

78:20

would you even diversify that? Yeah,

78:22

that's what I'm saying. I I think 100%

78:24

stocks is personally

78:27

a portfolio that I'm very comfortable

78:29

with. And I

78:31

I'm not I'm not old enough to be

78:32

thinking about retirement, but it's a

78:33

portfolio that I don't expect to change

78:35

throughout my personal life cycle. Is

78:38

that how you allocate your personal

78:39

finances now? You I know you have a

78:41

home, but otherwise, the money you do

78:43

invest is in the stock market. Yeah, so

78:45

I've got my home, I have my stock market

78:47

investments, and I do have a pretty

78:49

significant chunk of equity in the

78:50

company that I work for.

78:51

Yeah.

78:54

No crypto. No crypto. Any crypto? I

78:56

never touched it. Never touched it.

78:58

>> That's not true. I I when I was

79:00

researching uh Ethereum and Bitcoin,

79:03

I remember when that was, it was a few

79:04

years ago, I bought $1,000 of each just

79:07

so I could feel like I was

79:09

participating [clears throat] while I

79:09

was learning about it.

79:11

What do you think of Bitcoin and

79:12

Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies?

79:15

Uh I I think that they they solved a

79:17

really interesting problem.

79:19

The that premise of digital cash is

79:22

something that the Cypherpunk community,

79:24

the kind of libertarian community of of

79:26

uh

79:27

privacy-focused computer nerds, where

79:29

they were trying to solve this problem

79:30

for for many many years of digital cash.

79:33

How do you create digital cash that

79:35

doesn't require a trusted third party

79:37

to mediate transactions? And they they

79:39

solved that. Satoshi Nakamoto solved

79:41

that in uh

79:43

And that that was cool.

79:44

And he used a bunch of different pieces,

79:45

like you can kind of see in the paper

79:46

how he used Adam Back's Adam Back's

79:48

ideas that he had created to stop email

79:51

spam. And it's just how it all came

79:52

together. It's unbelievable, fascinating

79:53

story. The technology was really

79:54

interesting.

79:55

I think it has become uh an ideological

80:00

vehicle, where people who believe that

80:03

the world should be a certain way

80:05

or believe that government's role in

80:07

money should be a certain way,

80:09

they can invest in Bitcoin and feel

80:10

really good about it.

80:12

I think it's it's got that component to

80:13

it. And then the other component that it

80:14

has to it

80:16

is that it's a speculative asset.

80:18

People will buy Bitcoin because they

80:20

think it's going to go up.

80:23

So, it's not a good investment. Is that

80:24

what you're saying? I I I personally

80:26

wouldn't.

80:27

We don't allocate to it for our clients

80:30

at PWL.

80:31

We manage

80:32

quite a bit of money for quite a lot of

80:34

people, and we've decided not to touch

80:36

it. And I personally don't touch it, so.

80:39

I had a phone call actually from a

80:40

friend of mine. She she's very well

80:42

known in the UK.

80:44

And she was um cuz there's lots of wars

80:46

going on everywhere, and there's the

80:47

Strait of Hormuz is closed, and there's

80:49

Russia-Ukraine, and there's all of this

80:50

stuff going on. She was she was asking

80:52

me for financial advice on what she

80:54

should do in such a moment. I don't know

80:55

why she's calling me.

80:58

I just thought I'll ask you when you

80:59

come here. But it But it's interesting

81:00

cuz my my team found this article from

81:02

1847,

81:04

which was in a magazine,

81:06

and it almost sounds like today.

81:08

The article says this,

81:10

"Things are bad all over. It is a gloomy

81:12

moment in history. Not in the lifetime

81:14

of any man who reads this paper has

81:15

there ever been so much grave and deep

81:18

apprehension. Never has the future

81:20

seemed so dark and incalculable.

81:23

In France, the political cauldron

81:25

seethes and bubbles with uncertainty.

81:28

England and the English Empire is being

81:30

sorely tried and exhausted in a social

81:32

and economic struggle. The United States

81:35

is behest with racial, industrial, and

81:38

commercial chaos drifting, we know not

81:40

where. Russia hangs like a storm cloud

81:43

on the horizon of Europe, dark and

81:45

silent. It is a solemn moment, and no

81:48

man can feel indifference.

81:50

Of our own troubles, no man can see the

81:53

end." An apt description of things, very

81:55

apt. And that was on October the 10th,

81:58

1847.

81:59

A magazine. Now, that very much sounds

82:01

like today. It could be today, yeah.

82:04

So, as we zoom out on the cycles, the

82:06

big sort of economic cycles, the

82:07

geopolitical cycles,

82:09

my friend that called me and said,

82:10

"Listen, there's lots of stuff going on

82:11

in the world. Should I be thinking about

82:12

my money differently, my investing

82:13

strategy? What the hell's going on?"

82:15

What would you say to those people?

82:17

Yeah. Well, I I

82:19

as the clip that you read suggests or or

82:22

tells us, the world has been through a

82:25

lot of crazy stuff, a lot of crazy

82:27

times, a lot of wars, a lot of turmoil,

82:28

a lot of polit- political upheavals.

82:32

And we've come out okay, in general.

82:34

It's there there's been pain and

82:35

suffering, and and not everybody's had

82:37

good outcomes, but generally speaking,

82:40

here we are.

82:41

And if we think about that that from the

82:42

perspective of financial markets,

82:44

stock returns have been positive despite

82:47

all the craziness going on in the world.

82:49

There's There's lots of interesting

82:50

charts that overlay

82:51

news headlines about all the madness

82:53

going on in the world on top of the

82:55

stock chart that's just going up.

82:57

Doesn't mean the stocks are always going

82:58

to be up. They will go down when when

83:00

things get crazy, like when when this

83:02

war started, stock returns did get a

83:04

little bit negative for a while. They've

83:06

since come back, but there will be

83:07

volatility in financial markets,

83:09

volatility up and down day to day. But

83:12

in the long run, stock returns

83:14

they they should continue to be expected

83:16

to be

83:17

positive. So, for your friend, I

83:21

I don't know how the assets are set up,

83:23

um but someone who's globally

83:24

diversified, exposed to the stock

83:26

market,

83:27

they don't have to make changes to their

83:28

portfolios when the world's getting

83:30

crazy. I remember what she said to me.

83:32

She said that she was going to

83:34

remortgage her house

83:36

because I think she'd paid it down, and

83:38

she was wondering what to do with that

83:40

money.

83:41

She was saying, "Do I just go buy

83:42

another house, or do I invest it in the

83:44

stock market?"

83:46

Now, my my bias is the stock market, but

83:48

I don't know what you What would you say

83:49

to someone I'd want to know why she's

83:51

mortgaging her house, but

83:53

given there's a good reason for that, I

83:55

would I would probably go in the stock

83:56

market, not into real estate. Do you

83:58

think people shouldn't remortgage their

83:59

houses?

84:01

It's a tough question. Leverage, kind of

84:04

like how exposure to the stock market is

84:05

good, borrowing money to invest in

84:07

positive expected return assets like

84:09

like the stock market,

84:11

is actually kind of a good thing on

84:12

paper.

84:13

Borrowing money generally improves

84:15

long-term expected outcomes.

84:17

But it's stressful. You can You can have

84:20

bad outcomes where you lose all of your

84:23

money. So,

84:25

should people borrow money to invest?

84:26

Should people mortgage their house to

84:28

invest? That's That's a very personal

84:30

question. It's kind of like the

84:30

stock-bond question. Should you invest

84:32

in stocks or bonds? Should you invest in

84:34

stocks with leverage

84:35

or not? It really depends on your goals

84:37

and your situation.

84:39

Uh but generally speaking, if we just

84:41

look at what what what do the data say

84:42

about borrowing money to invest?

84:44

It's not It's not a terrible idea.

84:46

One of the things we haven't talked

84:47

about is AI.

84:50

And does AI change any of this equation?

84:52

A lot of people are worried at the

84:53

moment about losing their jobs.

84:54

Anthropic released a report, who are one

84:56

of the big AI companies, saying that

84:58

entry-level people in particular are

85:00

going to have a hard time. And I think

85:01

they said they're already seeing 13% of

85:04

entry-level jobs being disrupted because

85:06

of these new AI and AI agents.

85:09

I'm to be clear, not a labor economist.

85:12

Um it's not my area of expertise.

85:14

I do think though that we look back

85:16

through history. I like looking at the

85:18

history. There have been lots of

85:20

technological revolutions that have been

85:23

major major upheavals to the

85:26

entire economy.

85:28

Yes. So, ATMs. The ATMs are one of those

85:30

fascinating examples.

85:32

People thought that ATMs were going to

85:34

wipe out bank tellers

85:37

because ATMs could do everything the

85:38

bank tellers do, but it was automated,

85:40

and you didn't have to pay a person to

85:41

do it. So, there was a lot of concern.

85:44

And what what ended up happening was

85:47

very counterintuitive.

85:49

It's that the cost of operating a bank

85:51

branch

85:52

decreased because you needed fewer

85:55

people to do all the bank teller stuff

85:56

cuz you had the ATMs.

85:58

And banks opened more branches

86:00

because it cost less, and their

86:02

customers liked that. And the end result

86:05

was that there were actually more

86:07

bank teller jobs

86:09

at the end of the day.

86:10

The cost of providing the service

86:12

decreased, which caused it to

86:13

proliferate more, provide that service

86:15

to more

86:16

people, and it expanded the market

86:18

instead of

86:20

shrinking it.

86:21

Similar story with the Jevons paradox

86:22

and um It's the same concept.

86:25

What's that story? Where coal became

86:27

cheaper at a time when they used coal to

86:29

ship freight on trains, and the coal

86:33

engine got more efficient with coal,

86:35

coal industry panics,

86:36

"We're screwed." But then what it meant

86:38

is people used trains not just for

86:41

shipping freight, but also for other

86:42

things like travel. And people started

86:44

traveling on trains because it got

86:45

cheaper. So, the coal industry actually

86:47

boomed in the end. That's it. I have

86:50

thought a lot about this Jevons paradox

86:51

idea. And I think it's I think it's

86:53

going to be true for artificial

86:54

intelligence, for sure. I there will be

86:56

lots of other jobs created. And actually

86:58

companies like mine, if we save money,

86:59

we invest it in something else,

87:01

which then would would probably create

87:03

jobs, whatever that is. The part that I

87:05

sometimes struggle with is the speed

87:08

of adoption in AI. And then also, when

87:11

you factor in robotics,

87:12

like my car in in LA drives itself. And

87:15

I think one of the biggest employers on

87:16

Earth is driving in all its forms. But

87:19

then if you look at where housing and

87:20

supply chains, a lot of those are run by

87:22

people all over the world. And there was

87:23

a video that I played the other day. We

87:25

can throw it up on the screen, which

87:26

shows that in factories in certain parts

87:28

of the world now, they're having their

87:30

labor force wear cameras on their head

87:32

showing what they're doing with their

87:33

hands because they're robots are

87:35

ultimately going to replace that labor

87:38

force. And I just I I haven't I guess

87:40

this is maybe something that happens in

87:42

history. I haven't been able to think

87:43

about where those people go, and what

87:45

they then can go on to do,

87:48

especially if it happens in short order.

87:50

Yeah, so I I've heard you I've heard you

87:51

ponder this in your other episodes, and

87:53

I I I agree that the speed of this is

87:55

likely to be different. As you've said,

87:57

it's we're we're talking about the

87:59

internet, so you can deploy these things

88:00

at the snap of a finger. And that is

88:02

different. But where do those people go?

88:04

This is one of the interesting things. I

88:06

don't know. We We don't know.

88:08

And through history, we didn't know.

88:10

Exactly. Through history, it's been the

88:11

same sentiment, where people worry

88:13

about, "Where are these people going to

88:14

go?" And they might be unemployed for a

88:16

while, and there might be hard times,

88:17

but things have worked out.

88:20

And so, two ways to think about it. One

88:21

way is as a as an individual, what

88:23

should you be doing? We talked about it

88:24

earlier,

88:25

uh having complementary skills that make

88:27

you very unique, I think is important.

88:30

Personally, content, as you mentioned,

88:31

has been a big part of that for for me.

88:33

Not everybody can necessarily do that,

88:35

but finding those things that you can do

88:37

when combined better than anybody else

88:39

in the world, I think is very valuable.

88:42

And then the other perspective is as an

88:43

investor, how should we think about

88:45

this? And there I would come back to

88:46

again, we have seen many technological

88:50

revolutions that have changed the world.

88:53

They've changed financial markets,

88:54

they've changed our culture, they've

88:56

changed the way we interact with each

88:57

other. The world has changed so many

88:59

times due to technology,

89:00

and the same cycle has repeated itself.

89:03

Uh there there has been unemployment,

89:05

there has been social unrest, there has

89:07

been wealth inequality, but this happens

89:10

every time. Are you expecting the stock

89:13

market to collapse because there's been

89:15

a huge overinvestment in artificial

89:17

intelligence, and at some point the

89:18

investors that put their money into

89:19

these

89:21

sort of speculative

89:22

AI startups that raised tremendous

89:25

amounts of capital at crazy valuations.

89:28

At some point through history, doesn't

89:29

the market always contract at some

89:30

point? There's a great book by an

89:32

economist named Carlota Perez. The book

89:35

is Technological Revolutions and

89:37

Financial Capital.

89:38

And she documents this exact cycle

89:40

throughout history and yes, that's part

89:42

of it. Part of it is asset prices

89:44

getting really high

89:46

and then coming back down. Now, am I

89:48

worried about a catastrophic market

89:49

collapse?

89:51

I think that's always a concern. I think

89:53

that's part of the risk of investing in

89:54

stocks. We never know when it's going to

89:56

happen or what the trigger is going to

89:57

be. So, it's not something that you can

89:59

do anything about. You need to have an

90:01

asset allocation that you can stick with

90:03

even if that outcome is going to

90:05

materialize.

90:06

And in that book is

90:08

does it suggest that the writing is on

90:09

the wall for the current economy and the

90:12

way that we're heavily investing in AI

90:14

and data centers and you know, a couple

90:16

of years ago everyone was investing in

90:17

crypto

90:18

and web 3

90:20

and NFTs and all this stuff and all of

90:21

the money seems to have been sucked out

90:23

of that industry. Really honestly,

90:25

sucked out of almost every industry and

90:27

into AI.

90:29

Um and you know

90:30

>> I remember when DeFi was going to kill

90:32

banking and finance.

90:33

>> [laughter]

90:34

>> And that was only a couple of years ago.

90:35

In fact, a lot of the developers have

90:37

moved from that industry into the AI

90:38

industry. But I But I think I do think

90:40

about this a lot and I've got a few

90:41

startup friends who are getting a little

90:44

bit nervous and are raising a lot of

90:46

money now because they think that in the

90:48

next couple of years, maybe in the next

90:49

24 months, there's going to be a big

90:50

market contraction when investors who

90:52

invested in

90:54

some startup idea that had a $100

90:55

million valuation realize that they're

90:57

losing their money and some domino

90:59

usually falls in the market. Some

91:01

catalyst moment means that there's a

91:02

contraction. Stock markets go down. It

91:05

gets really hard to raise money. Clients

91:07

who you might be relying on now to pay

91:09

your advertising budget start to lower

91:11

their budgets.

91:13

And in such a scenario, you're going to

91:14

want to wish you'd prepared a little

91:16

bit. Some people are. This is part of

91:18

the cycle. The cost of capital for

91:21

bubble companies, we'll call them. I

91:22

don't love the term bubble, but for

91:23

companies who are in the industry that

91:25

becomes the focus of a technological

91:28

revolutions and now we're talking about

91:30

AI. The cost of capital gets really low,

91:32

which means asset prices get really high

91:33

and a lot of people want to invest in

91:35

that space. But those asset prices are

91:37

not typically sustainable

91:39

and they do tend to come down.

91:41

Does that mean a total market collapse

91:42

or catastrophe or or panic for

91:45

diversified investors? No. Oh, is the

91:47

writing on the wall?

91:49

I don't think we can say that. If the

91:50

writing were on the wall, the way that I

91:51

view financial markets is that if the

91:53

writing were on the wall prices would

91:55

reflect that today. Okay. If we thought

91:58

market prices were going to drop in the

91:59

future, they would drop today. So,

92:02

so it happens at a time when no one is

92:04

expecting it.

92:05

>> That's exactly right.

92:06

So, the writing is never on the wall.

92:08

That's right. Some some new piece of

92:10

information, something changes

92:12

and that's what causes prices to come

92:14

down. My brother said something to me.

92:16

He's a very smart person. He's worked in

92:17

sort of investing for the last 15 years.

92:19

He said something to me early in my

92:20

career. He said, "Stephen, when you go

92:23

to invest in something, assume that the

92:27

price you're paying for that investment,

92:28

so say I'm investing in Facebook stock

92:30

at $10

92:32

is the total accumulation of everything

92:36

everybody on the planet knows about that

92:37

company and they've priced in everything

92:40

the world knows about that company

92:41

today." And he was like, "So, even if

92:43

you think it's going to go up, that's

92:45

also by the way priced into today's

92:46

price. So, you better

92:49

know something that no one else knows

92:52

when you're thinking about buying an

92:53

investment. I've totally butchered what

92:55

he said. No, you You didn't You didn't.

92:58

He is describing the concept of an

92:59

efficient market.

93:01

An efficient market is a market where

93:02

prices always and this is a sort of a

93:04

theoretical concept. It's not actually

93:07

true. But in theory, an efficient

93:09

market, a perfectly efficient market is

93:10

a market where prices always fully

93:12

reflect all available information

93:14

including your thoughts about what the

93:15

price Yeah. might do. Really, if you

93:17

trade on those thoughts. So, what are

93:19

you investing in then if it's if

93:21

the future's already priced in and all

93:23

the information about the company's

93:24

already priced in, what are you

93:24

investing in? You're investing in

93:26

discounted future cash flows.

93:29

Companies produce cash flows. Mhm. They

93:31

earn They earn profits. When you invest

93:33

in a company, you're buying those

93:35

expected future profits at a discount.

93:37

That That's called the discount rate.

93:39

This is getting pretty nerdy again, but

93:40

that's that's how it works in finance.

93:41

What is the What is the value of a

93:42

stock? It's its discounted future cash

93:44

flows. Riskier stocks will tend to have

93:46

higher discount rates. So, you buy this

93:48

asset and now you've got this discounted

93:51

bundle of cash flows, which you then

93:52

hold and you receive the discount rate

93:54

as a rate of return as you continue to

93:55

hold

93:56

the asset. So, a lot of people will

93:57

invest in Tesla. They'll go, "Listen, I

93:59

I've got a Tesla. It's amazing. I'm

94:00

going to buy some stock."

94:02

What is the fault in my thinking there?

94:05

In buying Tesla stock? Because I I've

94:07

got a Tesla. I think it's a great car

94:09

and I think they'll do well in the

94:10

future. So, I buy the stock. But they

94:12

It's what we just talked about. That

94:13

information is already included in the

94:15

price. Every Everybody knows that it's a

94:17

pretty good company making pretty good

94:18

cars that are selling really well. And

94:20

that's why it costs $10 today. Right.

94:22

Whatever it costs today.

94:23

>> Whatever the price is, yeah. If you look

94:25

at

94:26

the data on professional money managers

94:29

who are trying to beat the market

94:31

most of them don't.

94:32

And the ones that do, this is a crazy

94:34

part, the managers who do beat the

94:35

market over a period of time

94:38

don't tend to go on to beat the market

94:40

in the future.

94:42

And these are professional investors who

94:43

are, you know, and then you can look at

94:44

these before or after fees. The data are

94:46

actually pretty similar. It's worse

94:48

after fees, but the distribution is is

94:51

pretty similar. So, what's the point in

94:52

a money manager? Well, ones that are

94:54

trying to beat the market by picking

94:55

stocks and timing the market, I don't

94:57

think that there is one.

95:00

That's why I talk about just just buy

95:02

index funds. Buy buy the market. Let

95:04

Give Take the market's return. Accept

95:06

the market's return, which has been very

95:07

good. And then don't do anything. Don't

95:09

check the thing. Don't check it.

95:11

Don't Don't open the app. Lose the

95:12

password. I said this about my my

95:13

fiance. I said she's really good at

95:14

investing because she always forgets the

95:15

password. And then we 4 years later

95:17

we'll be like, "What, babe, you should

95:19

check your investment." And she goes, "I

95:20

don't know the password." I go,

95:21

"Fucking." And then we have to do the

95:23

whole password reset thing every

95:24

>> [laughter]

95:25

>> And then we open it we go, "Oh, okay,

95:26

babe, you're rich."

95:28

It's probably good.

95:28

>> And she goes, "Oh, amazing." And then

95:29

she forgets the password again. And then

95:31

4 years later we take a look at again at

95:32

her investments. I like to say you you

95:34

want to focus on the things that you can

95:36

control.

95:37

Mhm. You can't control markets. You

95:39

can't control your performance relative

95:41

to the market. And tr- trying to

95:43

outperform tends to make you worse off

95:45

rather than better. But the things that

95:46

you can control

95:47

are a lot of the things we talked about.

95:48

Having having an an appropriate

95:50

financial plan, having having the right

95:51

goals set, having an asset allocation

95:53

that makes sense for you even if markets

95:55

do decline.

95:56

Having emergency savings, tax planning.

95:58

Those are things that you can control.

96:00

That's what people should focus on. Do

96:01

you think women are better investors

96:02

than men?

96:03

I'm not super good on these data, but I

96:05

believe what the data say are that women

96:08

tend to be a little bit more

96:08

risk-averse.

96:10

Uh but they tend to be a little bit less

96:13

overconfident.

96:15

Which I assume gets better results, no?

96:16

Yeah. I I think women are probably

96:18

better investors. I'm just going to give

96:19

I'm going to give the simple answer

96:20

right there.

96:21

I've just got some numbers here.

96:22

Fidelity said that across 5.2 million

96:26

accounts, women beat men with their

96:29

investments. Warwick Business School,

96:31

women outperformed men by 1.8%

96:33

percent per year over a 3-year period.

96:36

UC Berkeley, men traded 45% more often

96:40

than women leading to annual returns

96:43

that were 1.4% lower than women's. And

96:46

Revolut, which is a big bank founded out

96:48

in the UK

96:49

is says that women's investments in the

96:51

UK outperformed men's by 4%

96:55

over men.

96:56

I believe it. Give your money to your

96:57

wife.

96:59

One of those data points specified, but

97:01

I would assume that a lot of that is

97:03

related to overtrading. Yeah. Men tend

97:05

to be overconfident. They tend to trade

97:07

more. They try to pick stocks. They

97:08

think Tesla stock's going to go up

97:10

because they like the car.

97:12

And we're told that the biggest gambling

97:13

addicts in the world are men as well.

97:15

So, it's kind of correlates. For sure it

97:16

is, yeah.

97:17

Ben, we have a closing tradition on this

97:19

podcast where the last guest leaves a

97:20

question for the next not knowing who

97:21

they're leaving it for.

97:22

In the diary of the CEO. And the

97:24

question

97:25

that has been left for you

97:27

is

97:28

what experiment can you propose

97:31

whose outcome could completely

97:33

contradict your current beliefs?

97:37

Oh, man.

97:39

>> [sighs]

97:40

>> Uh

97:42

an experiment that I could run.

97:45

If I take my current beliefs as one of

97:47

the big things that we talked about is

97:48

markets being efficient and it being

97:50

quite hard to outperform

97:52

the market.

97:53

Uh I mean, the best the best experiment

97:55

that we can run is is trying to beat it.

97:58

People have done that. But it's being

97:59

run all the time. Isn't there a story in

98:01

the Psychology of Money by Morgan Housel

98:04

where like was it Warren Buffett bet

98:06

someone? Yeah, Warren Buffett bet Ted

98:08

Ted Seides, who we've actually had on

98:10

our podcast.

98:12

He bet him that

98:13

his

98:15

index fund portfolio, which I believe

98:16

was just the S&P 500, could outperform

98:18

any hedge fund portfolio that Ted

98:21

picked.

98:22

And they had a specific timeline. It was

98:24

10 years, wasn't it? Something. Yeah.

98:26

And then they were going to donate the

98:28

an amount of money at the end of the

98:30

period.

98:31

And Ted lost the bet.

98:33

Warren Warren won. But that that was one

98:35

of those instances where the world kind

98:38

of got to see, hey, this this index fund

98:40

thing Buffett has been a big advocate

98:42

for index funds.

98:43

But that was a big example where

98:45

I think a lot of people were exposed to

98:47

that idea.

98:48

Where do people find you? You know, I've

98:50

got your YouTube channel here, Ben

98:52

Felix, which I'll I'll link below for

98:53

anyone that wants to continue to follow

98:56

you on YouTube. Is there anywhere any

98:58

any other resources that we should

98:59

direct people to? Yeah, another place

99:01

where I post actually a little bit more

99:03

frequently with longer form stuff is the

99:05

Rational Reminder podcast.

99:07

People can check me out there. And then

99:09

I do have some interesting tools for the

99:11

rent versus buy calculation. We have a

99:13

goal-setting app. I don't think it's up

99:15

yet, though. And we've got some other

99:16

really interesting tools on

99:18

the PWL Capital website. PWLcapital.com.

99:22

I'll link all of that below for anyone

99:23

that's interested.

99:24

And the Rational Reminder Podcast,

99:26

rationalreminder.ca/podcast.

99:29

And your YouTube channel will be linked

99:31

below, as well.

99:32

Awesome. Thank you so much, Ben. Thank

99:33

you for doing what you do, because um

99:35

finance is such an important part of our

99:37

life, and I think a huge percentage of

99:38

the population, for whatever reason,

99:40

choose to avoid the subject altogether,

99:41

cuz it causes a little bit of anxiety.

99:43

But also, we just don't get taught about

99:45

finance in school, which I think is a

99:46

great shame. And in in my case, you

99:48

know, it wasn't until I destroyed my

99:49

credit rating, my credit score, um that

99:51

I started to figure out what finance

99:53

was. And by then,

99:54

kind of like brushing your teeth, I'd

99:55

done a lot of damage. And so, since

99:57

then, from doing this podcast, and being

99:58

the smart people like you that are good

99:59

at demystifying complex things, and but

100:02

also, in your case, that use academic

100:03

research as the basis for the claims

100:05

they're making, it has helped to turn

100:07

the lights on for me.

100:09

And in this domain, I think control, or

100:11

like understanding and information is

100:13

power. Really, like knowledge is power.

100:16

And a lot of people are disempowered,

100:17

because they don't have the knowledge,

100:18

and they kind of they're on that sort of

100:20

roller coaster of their life

100:21

circumstance, and they don't feel like

100:23

they have control, especially

100:24

considering that the world feels so

100:25

uncertain right now. So, thank you for

100:27

doing what you do, Ben. Really, really

100:28

appreciate it, and I hope to speak to

100:29

you again sometime soon. Thanks so much.

100:31

YouTube have this new crazy algorithm,

100:33

where they know exactly what video you

100:35

would like to watch next, based on AI

100:37

and all of your viewing behavior. And

100:39

the algorithm says that this video is

100:42

the perfect video for you. It's

100:44

different for everybody looking right

100:45

now. Check this video out, and I bet you

100:47

you might love it.

Interactive Summary

The video features finance expert Ben Felix, who discusses the importance of academic-based financial decision-making, covering topics such as the renting versus owning a home debate, personal financial mistakes, investing strategies, and the role of psychology in wealth creation. Felix introduces practical frameworks for setting goals and managing finances, emphasizing the importance of long-term thinking, low-cost index funds, and human capital growth while warning against common pitfalls like overspending, bad investment products, and ignoring the power of compounding.

Suggested questions

5 ready-made prompts