Beyond DotCom: The Forgotten Financial Bubbles of Capitalism and Their Psychology
570 segments
When most people think about financial
bubbles, three great archetypes spring
to mind. The Dutch tulip mania of the
1630s, the South Sea bubble of 1720, and
the dotcom bubble of the late 1990s.
These episodes have become cultural
shorthand for speculative excess,
irrational markets, and the dangers of
chasing easy wealth. Tulip bulb selling
for price of a house, South Sea shares
doubling in days, or internet startups
with no profits reaching billion-dollar
valuations. These are the cautionary
tales that textbooks, documentaries, and
even dinner party conversations return
to again and again. But by focusing only
on these greatest hits, we miss a much
deeper, richer, and more troubling
truth. Bubbles are not rare outliers,
but recurring pattern in economic
history. They happen across centuries in
wildly different industries and even in
societies that thought themselves
immune. Why? Because financial bubbles
are less about the asset being traded,
be it flowers, land, or software, and
more about human psychology, collective
belief, and a seductive story that this
time is different. As we explore these
forgotten bubbles, from France's paper
money experiment under John Law to
Britain's canal and railway frenzies to
speculative land rushes in Melbourne and
Miami to blue chipped illusions and
Japanese skyscrapers, we will see that
the lessons are timeless. Each bubble
reveals the interplay between
innovation, policy, and psychology. And
each collapse exposes a fragile
foundation of collective belief. In the
end, the true subject of bubbles is not
money, but mass psychology. Let's now
take a look at the largely forgotten
bubbles. And then in this video, examine
the root causes and psychological
mechanisms that led to their formation.
At the dawn of the 18th century, France
was financially exhausted. Decades of
war under Louis the 14th had drained the
royal treasury. Into this crisis stepped
a charismatic Scotsman, John Law,
gambler, mathematician, economist, and
visionary. Law convinced the French
regent that paper money, backed not by
gold or silver, but by the productive
capacity of the French economy, could
revive national finances. He created the
Bon Generalall, later nationalized as a
bank Royale, which issued paper bank
notes exchangeable for coin. At the same
time, he launched a Mississippi company,
a trading venture promising immense
riches from France's North American
colonies. Investors could buy shares in
the company with the very paper money
laws bank produced. At first, the system
seemed revolutionary. It expanded
credit, increase liquidity, and fueled a
speculative boom. Parisian elites
crowded the ruin pokes where Mississippi
shares changed hands feverishly. Law was
hailed as a genius and the market
capitalization of his company rivaled
the entire French economy. But the
bubble contained its own seeds of
destruction. The supposed wealth of
Louisiana was largely imaginary. Paper
money multiplied far beyond its metallic
backing, eroding confidence. When
skeptical investors demanded coins or
banknotes, the bonk royale could not
deliver. Panic set in. The share price
collapsed in the French public loss
faith, not just in law, but in paper
money itself. The Mississippi bubble
demonstrates how state-backed monetary
experiments can ignite speculative
euphoria and how quickly credibility can
collapse. Its parallels to modern
cryptocurrency booms are striking. New
financial technologies, charismatic
promoters, early fortunes made, mass
participation, and then a sudden
collapse when faith falters. Monetary
innovation, as John Law learned, always
depends on psychology as much as policy.
Fast forward to the late 18th century
when Britain was undergoing the first
industrial revolution. Canals were the
arteries of progress, promising to
connect mines, factories, and ports with
unprecedented efficiency. The Duke of
Bridgewwater's pioneering canal to
Manchester had shown the enormous
profits and cost savings possible.
Investors and engineers rushed to
replicate the success. By the 1790s,
Parliament authorized nearly 100 canal
projects financed by subscription
shares. Ordinary Britain, shopkeepers,
farmers, tradesmen poured savings into
canal companies, convinced that
waterways were the future. Yet, not
every canal had Bridgewwater's economic
logic. Many were redundant, poorly
planned, or over financed. Competition
between rival routes eroded
profitability. Cost ballooned, revenues
lagged, and investors who bought shares
on the promise of endless growth face
bitter losses. Canal mania reveals the
dangers of infrastructure hype. Just as
21st century investors have rushed into
high-spe speed rail, smart cities or
even hyperloop projects. The canal boom
shows how enthusiasm for transformative
infrastructure can outpace economic
fundamentals. It also demonstrates a
contagion effect. Once one canal
succeeded, investors assumed all canals
would succeed. a cognitive bias known as
extrapolation. If canals were exciting,
railways were intoxicating. By the
1840s, Britain's railway network was
expanding rapidly, and the
transformative power of steam locomotion
was obvious. Faster than canals cheaper
than roads, railways promised not just
profits, but a reshaping of time and
space itself. Shares and railway
companies became the speculative asset
of choice. Ordinary families mortgage
homes to buy them. Newspapers dedicated
entire sections to railway prospects.
Public meetings resembled religious
revivals with promoters preaching the
gospel of iron rails. The frenzy
produced countless paper railways.
Companies that existed only on paper
with no track ever laid. Investors
nevertheless subscribed
enthusiastically. Swept along by fear of
missing out. Politicians and regulators
unwilling to dampen the boom approved
projects without due scrutiny. When
reality failed to match expectations,
collapse was brutal. By 1849, the stock
prices of many railway companies had
fallen by 2/3. Families were ruined and
the economic shock was severe. Railway
mania shows how speculation thrives when
innovation intersects with public
imagination. It also highlights the role
of information cascades, where
individuals base decisions not on their
own judgment, but on the observed
behavior of others. This her behavior
amplified by newspapers and public
spectacle remains central to every
bubble. In the late 19th century,
Melbourne was called Marvelous
Melbourne. Fueled by gold discoveries
and British capital inflows, the city
expanded rapidly. Land value soared and
banks eagerly extended credit for
property speculation. Suburban plots
were sold and resold at ever higher
prices. often without any development.
Banks flushed with deposits from Britain
lent recklessly to property companies.
By the late 1880s, Melbourne had one of
the most inflated property markets in
history. The inevitable crash came in
the early 1890s. Banks failed, foreign
investors fled, and unemployment
skyrocketed. The boom had been built not
on productive development, but on
speculative turnover of titles. The
Australian land boom illustrates the
dangers of global capital flows into
emerging markets, a pattern repeated in
Asia in the 1990s and even in
cryptocurrency markets today. It also
shows the fragility of banking systems
when exposed to real estate cycles. By
the 1920s, Florida became America's
playground. Railroads open access,
advertising promised sunshine and
riches, and celebrities like Al Capone
and the Harvey Firestone family bought
estates. Developers sold swampy land
site unseen to northerners, often
through glossy brochures. Speculation
ran wild. Lots were flipped multiple
times before being built upon. Prices
detached completely from reality. Then
in 1926, hurricanes devastated Miami and
surrounding regions. Transportation
bottlenecks, fraud, and overbuilding
were exposed. The market collapsed,
leaving ghost subdivisions across the
state. The Florida land boom shows the
interplay between media hype, celebrity
culture, and speculative frenzy. It
foreshadowed later real estate bubbles
from Las Vegas in 2008 to crypto
metverse land in 2021. It also
highlights a role of exogenous shocks,
natural disasters, policy changes that
can prick inflated markets. Unlike
speculative canals or swampland, the
Nifty50 were real companies. IBM, Xerox,
Coca-Cola, Polaroid. In the 1960s, these
blue chip stocks were seen as one
decision investments. Buy and never
sell. They were believed to possess
permanent growth, immune to business
cycles. Investors bid up their
valuations to extraordinary levels with
price to earnings ratios exceeding 50.
For a time, the illusion seemed
justified. But by the mid1 1970s,
inflation, oil shocks, and slower growth
shattered a myth. Prices collapsed,
wiping out vast wealth. The Nifty50
illustrates how even rational,
profitable companies can become
speculative assets when narratives of
invincibility take hold. The parallels
of today's Magnificent 7 tech stocks are
clear. Concentration, valuation excess,
and a belief that technology guarantees
perpetual growth. Sometimes all it takes
is one discovery. In 1969, Poseidon and
Lel, a small mining company, announced a
promising nickel find. Nickel prices
were soaring due to demand from
stainless steel production. Investors
piled in and Poseidon share price
rocketed from under $1 to over 280.
Speculation spread to other mining
companies, many with no real prospects.
Small investors eager not to miss out
bought in late, but Poseidon's was less
rich than hoped. Nickel prices fell and
entire sector collapsed by 1970. The
Poseidon bubble shows the dynamics of
resource booms. Real discoveries can
trigger speculative exaggeration. It
also demonstrates the greater fool
theory where late comers buy not for
value but in the hope of selling to
someone even more optimistic. In the
1980s, Japan was at the peak of its
economic miracle. Growth was rapid.
Technology exports dominated and
optimism abounded. Loose monetary policy
fueled credit expansion and both stocks
and real estate prices surged. At its
peak, the land under Tokyo's Imperial
Palace was said to be worth more than
all the real estate in the United
States. The NIK stock index tripled
between 1985 and 1989. But when the Bank
of Japan tightened policy, the bubble
collapsed. By the early 1990s, trillions
in wealth had evaporated. The aftermath
was devastating. Japan entered a lost
decade with deflation, stagnant growth,
and a deeply scarred national psyche.
The bubble showed how central banks can
fuel and burst speculative manias and
how the cultural optimism of an economic
miracle can blind a nation to valuation
extremes. But how do financial bubbles
exactly take shape? Which forces drive
them forward? And how does human
psychology amplify their rise and
collapse? Let's dive deep into this
phenomenon to uncover mechanics behind
the mania. From the moment human beings
began to trade, they discovered not only
the thrill of profit, but also the peril
of collective delusion. The history of
financial bubbles is not merely an
economic history. It is a history of
human psychology written on the grand
stage of markets. Again and again,
society is a move from optimism to
euphoria, from panic to despair. And
every stage reveals something profound
about how people think, feel, and act
when money and dreams collide. But why
do these bubbles look so similar across
centuries? Whether in the tulip fields
of 17th century Holland, the dot offices
of Silicon Valley in the 1990s, or the
cryptocurrency exchanges of the 2020s.
To answer this, we need to dig into the
mass psychology that fuels bubbles and
the cognitive traps that ens snare even
the brightest minds. The emotional cycle
of a bubble is astonishingly
predictable. It usually begins with
optimism. a new opportunity arises.
Perhaps the discovery of gold in the
rivers of California in 1849, or the
launch of railways across Britain in the
1840s, or the emergence of blockchain
technology in the 2010s. At this stage,
investors genuinely believe they are
funding progress. As early adopters see
their fortunes multiply, optimism gives
way to enthusiasm and then euphoria.
Prices rise not because of fundamental
value but because more and more people
are convinced they will rise further. At
the euphoric peak, rational analysis is
drowned out by a chorus of this time is
different. A phrase immortalized by
economist Charles Kindleberger in his
1978 classic Mania panics and crashes.
When doubts finally creep in, perhaps
because of a fail harvest, a change in
regulation, or simply because prices can
climb no higher, the tone shifts
anxiety. Panic spreads quickly, often
triggered by a few high-profile
failures. Suddenly, everyone wants to
sell, but there are no buyers left. What
follows is despair. When prices
collapse, fortunes evaporate, and
participants swear they will never be so
foolish again. Yet, within a generation,
the cycle begins a new. What makes this
pattern so enduring are the cognitive
biases that shape human decision-making.
Behavioral finance pioneered by scholars
like Daniel Conaman and Amos Tverki in
the 1970s has revealed that investors
are not the co-rational calculators
described in classical economics but
deeply emotional beings subject to
systematic errors. Her behavior is
perhaps the most obvious. When we see
others making money, we assume they know
something we do not and we follow along.
This instinct made sense for our
ancestors on Savannah. If everyone runs,
you run too. But in markets, it creates
runaway feedback loops. Confirmation
bias further accelerates the bubble.
Once people are convinced of an asset's
promise, they selectively absorb
information that supports their belief
and dismiss evidence to the contrary.
Overconfidence bias adds another twist
as investors systematically overestimate
their ability to time the market or to
spot the moment when it is time to exit.
In 1720, even Sir Isaac Newton, one of
the greatest mathematical geniuses in
history, lost much of his fortune in the
South Sea bubble, reportedly lamenting
that he could calculate the motions of
heavenly bodies, but not the madness of
men. Narratives and stories play a
central role in overriding rational
analysis. Economic historian Robert
Schiller, who won the Nobel Prize in
2013, coined the term narrative
economics to describe how contagious
stories spread like epidemics, shaping
investment decisions. During the dotcom
bubble, the prevailing narrative was
that the internet would reinvent every
aspect of life, making profits almost
irrelevant. During the housing bubble of
the early 2000s, the story was that real
estate values always rise. In the 1630s,
tulips were said to be not just flowers,
but symbols of status and eternal value.
Media hype magnifies these stories. When
newspapers, television, and later social
media platforms constantly amplify tales
of overnight millionaires, individuals
feel what psychologists call social
proof. If everyone else believes it, it
must be true. Rational calculations
about earnings, dividends, or realistic
yields are drowned in a sea of memes,
headlines, and anecdotes. New
technologies and paradigm shifts are
especially fertile ground for bubbles.
Why? Because they combine genuine
innovation with boundless uncertainty.
Railways in the 19th century, radio in
the 1920s, semiconductors in the 1960s,
and cryptocurrencies in the 2010s all
inspired visions of a transformed
future. Joseph Chumpeder, the Austrian
economist famous for the concept of
creative destruction, argue that
capitalism advances in great waves of
innovation. But when these innovations
appear, no one can say with certainty
which companies will succeed or how
profits will be distributed. This
ambiguity allows speculative narratives
to flourish as investors project their
hopes onto any firm associated with a
new technology. Thus, paradigm shifts
create what Minsky later called
displacement, a spark that ignites
speculative manas. The role of FOMO, the
fear of missing out, cannot be
overstated. In modern slang, it is easy
to dismiss, but the psychological
mechanism is profound. When people see
others enriching themselves, the pain of
missing out feels greater than the risk
of loss. The greater fool theory
emerges. The belief that even if an
asset is overpriced, one can still sell
to someone else at a higher price. This
logic is self-reinforcing. The more
people believe they can find a greater
fool, the more they are willing to
become fools themselves. That is why
bubbles often escalate far beyond what
any sober analysis would predict. One of
the most haunting aspects of bubbles is
that smart, experienced, and even
cynical people participate. Why would
sophisticated investors, hedge fund
managers, and Nobel laureates throw
money at assets they know are
overvalued? The answer lies in
institutional incentives and social
pressure. Fund managers are often
evaluated quarterly. If they refuse to
join a rising market, they risk
underperforming their peers and losing
clients. John Maynor Kanes once quipped
that markets can remain irrational
longer than you can remain solvent. To
sit out a bubble is to risk career
suicide. So even the cautious join in.
On a personal level, cognitive
dissonance also plays a role. If
everyone around you is getting rich, it
is difficult to accept being the lone
skeptic. The combination of professional
incentives and personal psychology
ensures that bubbles sweep up the best
and the brightest. Can bubbles be
recognized in real time or only in
hindsight. Economists debate this
fiercely. Alan Greenspan, then chairman
of the Federal Reserve, famously warned
of irrational exuberance in 1996, years
before the dotcom bubble actually burst.
Yet markets kept climbing. Identifying a
bubble is easier in retrospect, but
there are warning signs. Prices that
rise far beyond historical averages,
valuations disconnected from earnings,
widespread use of leverage, and the
proliferation of speculative instruments
are all red flags. Minsk's financial
instability hypothesis describes how
stability itself breeds instability.
Long periods of calm encourage
risk-taking, which leads to fragile
structures that eventually collapse.
Still, these warnings are often drowned
out during the euphoric stage when
critics are mocked as pessimists or
dinosaurs. History offers sobering
lessons about the timeless cycle of
greed and fear. In every era, whether
few Japan's rice markets, medieval
Venice's spice trades, or Wall Street's
mortgage back securities, the emotional
DNA remains the same. Greed inflates the
bubble. Fear pops it, and despair clears
the ground for the next cycle.
Kindleberger and Minsky both emphasize
that bubbles are not aberrations, but
recurring features of financial history.
They reveal not a flaw in markets alone,
but in human nature itself. This leads
us to the most important question. Can
bubbles ever be avoided or are they
inevitable in capitalism? Optimists
argue that better regulation, improve
financial literacy, and advanced
modeling can mitigate bubbles. Central
banks now monitor systemic risks more
carefully than in previous centuries,
and stress tests aim to prevent
collapses. Yet, skeptics insist that
bubbles are as inevitable as tides. As
long as human beings dream of wealth,
compete with peers, and fall prey to
cognitive biases, speculative manas will
return. Schiller has suggested that the
best offense is not prevention, but
resilience, building systems that can
absorb the shock when bubbles burst. In
the end, the mass psychology of bubbles
tells us a paradoxical story. On the one
hand, bubbles are destructive, wiping
out fortunes and destabilizing
economies. On the other hand, they often
leave behind lasting infrastructure and
progress. The railway mania left Britain
with a dense rail network. The dotcom
bubble left behind fiber optic cables
that powered the internet age. Even the
cryptocurrency boom may leave us with
valuable blockchain technologies. In
this sense, bubbles are the irrational
accelerators of human progress born from
the very same greed and fear that make
us vulnerable. So when we ask why
bubbles follow such predictable
emotional stages, why they are fueled by
her behavior and confirmation bias, why
stories and hype override rationality,
and why even the smartest cannot resist,
we are ultimately asking a deeper
question. What does it mean to be human
in the face of uncertainty and
opportunity? The answer is sobering and
exhilarating at once. We are creatures
of hope and fear, endlessly repeating
cycles of folly and innovation.
Condemned and blessed the waves of
mania, panics, and crashes. And perhaps,
just perhaps, it is this very cycle that
propels history forward. The true lesson
of forgotten bubbles is not simply that
markets are fragile, but that human
psychology is predictable. Each
generation believes itself wiser, more
rational, and better informed. Yet, time
and again, the cycle repeats. As Charles
Kindleberger wrote in his classic mania,
panics, and crashes, there is nothing as
disturbing to one's well-being and
judgment as to see a friend get rich.
From John Law's Paris to Tokyo
skyscrapers, the story is the same.
Financial bubbles are less about assets
than about us. They are mirrors
reflecting our hopes, fears, and
illusions. And until human psychology
changes, the bubbles will keep
returning.
Ask follow-up questions or revisit key timestamps.
The video explores the recurring phenomenon of financial bubbles throughout history, moving beyond the commonly known examples like Dutch tulip mania or the dot-com bubble. It argues that bubbles are not rare outliers but predictable patterns driven by human psychology, collective belief, and seductive narratives, rather than the specific assets being traded. The transcript details several less-discussed bubbles, including John Law's Mississippi Company in France, Britain's canal and railway frenzies, speculative land rushes in Melbourne and Florida, the Nifty50 stock bubble, and Japan's asset price bubble in the 1980s. It explains the common stages of a bubble: optimism, enthusiasm, euphoria, anxiety, panic, and despair, driven by cognitive biases such as herd behavior and confirmation bias. The video also highlights the role of narratives, media hype, and new technologies in fueling speculative manias, noting that even intelligent individuals can get caught up due to institutional incentives and social pressure. While bubbles can be destructive, they often leave behind valuable infrastructure and technological advancements. The ultimate lesson is that financial bubbles are less about markets and more about predictable patterns in human nature, making them recurring features of economic history.
Videos recently processed by our community