A major market shock is coming [music]

and Wall Street isn't ready for it. The

media doesn't see it and it's much

bigger than most investors realize

because it's going to hit the market

from two directions at once. The cracks

are already starting to show, but almost

no one is paying attention. My name is

Alex and I spent eight years as an

electrical engineer and AI researcher at

MIT, which helped me find stocks like

Nvidia, TSMC, and Micron years before

the rest of the market. This is exactly

the kind of setup that can make

investors rich as long as they know what

stocks to watch [music] and how to be

greedy when others are fearful. That's

exactly what I'll show you in this video

because that's the best way to get rich

without getting lucky. Your time is

valuable, so let's get right into it.

The market is currently fighting a war

on two fronts. The first front is

obvious. The Strait of Hormuz has been

closed for 60 days and oil prices are up

over 50% in the last two months, which

raises costs and lowers margins for

every company we invest in. Just

yesterday, I ran offered up a deal to

end the conflict, but the US rejected it

and the next 11 days are critical. The

president can deploy US forces without

congressional approval for up to 60

days. So, President Trump's 60-day

window expires on May 11th, which means

one of three big things are about to hit

the market. President Trump either uses

the time he has left to escalate the

conflict, he withdraws the US naval

blockade, or he gets Congress to extend

his authorization. Every option has huge

consequences on oil prices and global

supply chains. None of them are being

priced in and make no mistake, just

taking the can down the road is not a

real option. Like I said, the cracks are

already starting to show. Taiwan imports

97%

of its energy and gets almost 40% of its

grid power from natural gas sourced in

the Middle East. TSMC has about 11 days

worth of liquefied gas on site. 30% of

the world's helium supply comes from

Qatar. Helium is what cools the magnets

in the machines that make every advanced

chip on Earth. When the helium supply

stops, so does chip production. And

right now, chip fabs are still running

because they plan for short disruptions,

but it takes companies months to rebuild

their stockpiles and just days to blow

through them. If the straight stays

closed, supply chains face even more

delays, insurance and oil prices climb

even higher, and margins keep

compressing. The second market shock is

totally different and much less obvious,

which is why the media hasn't connected

the dots yet. OpenAI is valued at close

to a trillion dollars today and their AI

models are a huge part of the demand

pushing prices for AI stocks higher and

higher, but news just broke that OpenAI

has been missing their own revenue and

user targets for months and now they're

in a court battle with Elon Musk, a

trial that could literally rewrite the

future of the entire AI industry. Let me

remind you of a few insane details to

show you just how shaky their situation

is. Last year, Sam Altman signed deals

committing OpenAI to roughly $1.4

trillion in future AI infrastructure

spending. Deals that skyrocketed the

stocks on the other side. I've covered

most of these deals in previous videos,

but I put together this summary table so

you can see the big picture. Some of

these deals are even crazier than they

first look. The AMD one gives OpenAI the

option to buy up to 10% of AMD's entire

company at 1 cent per share if OpenAI

can hit certain deployment milestones.

As AMD's stock price rises, this deal

quietly becomes worth far more than what

it looks like on paper. $1.4 trillion in

commitments. OpenAI's current revenue

run rate is $25 billion per year and

that's before accounting for their

costs. You know, how can a company with

13 billion in revenues make 1.4 trillion

of spend commitments? You know, and and

and you've heard the criticisms, Sam.

>> we're doing well more revenue than that.

Second of all, Brad, if you want to sell

your shares, I'll find you a buyer.

>> [laughter]

>> I I just enough. The Elon Musk trial

just pours salt on this wound. He wants

the court to force OpenAI back to

nonprofit status. He wants a full change

in leadership and he wants $134 billion

in damages returned to OpenAI's

nonprofit arm. The for-profit side is

the one with $1.4 trillion on the hook.

Nonprofits cannot IPO. Microsoft's $130

billion stake in the company gets

vaporized if Elon wins this trial.

Realistically, I don't see that

happening, but the middle ground might

still do enough damage to OpenAI. The

court could probably allow them to stay

a for-profit company, but will make them

write a check for around $65 billion or

more to the nonprofit arm. OpenAI lost

$8 billion last year on $13 billion in

revenue. That check breaks their bank

long before the $1.4 trillion of

commitments ever will. Despite all of

that, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are

trading at all-time highs. I've been

investing in stocks like Nvidia since

2016 and this massive gap between what's

actually happening and what the market

is pricing in is shaping up to be the

biggest buying opportunity I've seen in

years as long as you prepare and protect

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let's talk about protecting our

portfolios next. That doesn't mean panic

sell your stocks today and try to buy

the dip tomorrow. It means making smart

decisions for yourself based on data and

facts instead of gut feelings. So, let's

look at some market data next starting

with how big crashes can actually get

and how long they could last. This is a

chart from First Trust and Bloomberg

showing the S&P 500's performance

through every bull and bear market going

back to World War II. The X axis is time

and the Y axis is total returns. It

turns out that bull markets last an

average of 4.4 years while bear markets

last 11 months. The average return

during a bull market is 151%

while bear markets lose roughly 32% on

average. So, said another way, bull

markets last over four times longer than

bear markets and they return almost five

times more than bear markets drop. This

is why millionaires get made during

stock market crashes. They're really

opportunities to buy the best stocks at

the biggest discounts. This is also why

I focus on long-term investing. It takes

years for markets to hit the top and to

recover from the bottom. I want to arm

you with as much data as I can, so

here's another way to look at it. Here's

a study that splits bear markets into

two parts, their declines and their

recoveries. In 1956, the S&P 500 went

down 21% over 15 months and then took

another 11 months to recover from the

bottom and make a new high. Compare that

to the start of the pandemic where the

market dropped 34% in a single month and

only took five months to recover. The

average bear market takes around 13

months to bottom and another 24 months

to fully recover. So, no matter which

way you slice this data, the buying

opportunity lasts for months, not

minutes. That gives smart investors

plenty of time to plan their moves,

build their cash position, and prepare

to be greedy when others are being

fearful. That's how real money gets

made. This is also why you never panic

sell. You actually want to be buying

when there's blood in the streets, even

if some of that blood is your own. But

how do you actually know when to be

fearful and when to be greedy? The

answer is even more data. This is CNN's

Fear and Greed Index and I'll leave a

link to it below so that you can

bookmark it for yourself. It's a single

number from zero to 100. When this index

is low, investors are panicking and when

it's high, investors are getting greedy

and they're overpaying for stocks. When

you zoom out to a one-year timeline,

things get even more interesting.

Investors are currently near the

one-year record level of greed, but that

greed is starting to reverse. The cracks

are starting to show, but the shocks

aren't priced in yet. That's exactly the

setup that you want if you're preparing

to be greedy when others are about to be

fearful. By the way, check out the two

bottoms in this Fear and Greed Index

over the last year, November 20th and

March 30th. They line up with the exact

bottoms of the two biggest dips in the

S&P 500. That's why we look at data

instead of trusting our gut. And right

now, the data says investors are still

being greedy, even though the stock

market is fighting a war on two fronts.

On the supply side with the Strait of

Hormuz being closed for 60 days, and on

the demand side with OpenAI missing its

own targets and getting dragged to

court. Now that you're armed with all

the right context and the right data,

let's talk about how to get rich without

getting lucky as all of this unfolds.

And if you feel I've earned it, consider

hitting the like button and subscribing

to the channel. It really helps me out

and tells me to make more videos like

this. Whenever the market is fighting a

war on multiple fronts, good investors

turn into snipers. That means they do

three things the rest of Wall Street

won't. First, they take the high ground

so they can see the whole landscape.

They zoom out, they assess the data, and

they understand their position. That's

what we just did. We saw the two shocks

about to hit the market and we looked at

historic data to see where it could move

next. Second, snipers track their

targets. They keep a short list of

stocks in their crosshairs and they

watch how those stocks move. They don't

watch every stock. They only focus on

the best ones. Third, they wait for the

right moment to take their shot. They're

patient when everyone else panics. When

the Fear and Greed Index flashes extreme

fear, they're locked and loaded and

they're ready to start buying stocks

that they've been tracking this whole

time. That's how you get rich without

getting lucky. There are only two kinds

of stocks worth keeping in my crosshairs

right now. First, companies with so much

pricing power that they can raise prices

without losing customers. The second are

companies with massive revenues, massive

free cash flows, and massive war chests

to keep moving through any market shock.

Let's go through my targets one by one.

The first stock in my sights is Micron,

ticker symbol MU. This stock has almost

5x'd since I started covering it and I

still think it's undervalued. Micron is

the only American memory company in a

market dominated by Samsung and SK

Hynix, both of which are Korean

companies. Korea sources more than half

its helium through the Strait of Hormuz.

If the strait stays closed, Korean

memory production will slow down before

Micron's does. And Micron is the only

company that can step in as a second

source for high bandwidth memory. The

exact kind of memory that Nvidia needs

to ship their next generation of AI

chips. If the Iran conflict continues

and Korean chipmakers get squeezed on

supply, Micron can charge more for the

same product to a list of customers that

will line up around the block. That's

what I mean by pricing power. And here's

the part that Wall Street is still

sleeping on. Micron's forward

price-to-earnings ratio is under eight,

making them the cheapest large-cap name

in the entire AI supply chain. And

they're expected to grow their earnings

by almost 100% next year. So next time

the stock drops, it's the first one I

take my shot at. The second stock I'm

watching is ASML, the only company on

Earth making the machines required to

build the most advanced chips. Not the

best, the only. Their EUV lithography

machines are some of the most complex

pieces of equipment that humanity has

ever built. TSMC, Samsung, and Intel

literally cannot produce a single

advanced chip without them. Here's why

that matters right now. Even when supply

chains get squeezed, every chipmaker on

the planet still has to keep buying

ASML's machines to stay competitive.

There's really no substitute that works

at scale. They can't afford to delay

their purchases because they'll just

fall behind their competition. And they

can't negotiate ASML down since there's

no second supplier. They just reported

earnings on April 15th, well into the

Iran war. And ASML sales, earnings, and

guidance have all increased despite the

ongoing supply shocks. When your

customers don't have a choice, you don't

have a problem. And that brings me to

the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing

Company, ticker symbol TSM. I've been

covering TSM stock for over five years.

And even though it's gone up by 5x, my

conviction has only gotten stronger.

TSMC makes roughly 90% of the world's

most advanced chips. Every Nvidia GPU,

every Apple processor, and almost

everything in between. If TSMC slows

down, the entire AI economy slows down

with it. Like I said earlier, Taiwan

imports 97% of its energy. TSMC has 11

days of natural gas on site and about a

week of helium reserves. If the strait

stays closed long enough for those

stockpiles to run out, TSMC will have to

start picking which orders they can

fill. And they'll prioritize their

highest margin customers first. They'll

delay the rest and they'll charge more

money because they're allocating their

limited capacity to the customers

willing to pay. If ASML makes the ovens,

then TSMC controls the kitchen. And the

highest margin company they'll keep

cooking for is Nvidia. That's why Nvidia

is also on my list. Look, I know I talk

about them all the time, but there's a

good reason for that. Nvidia is at the

very center of the entire AI revolution.

Every other company in this video makes

the ingredients or they serve the food,

but Nvidia is doing all the cooking.

Nvidia has over a 90% share of the data

center GPU market. No other company even

comes close. But here's why it's in my

crosshairs at this unique moment in the

market. If natural gas and helium

stockpiles start running dry in Korea

and Taiwan, Nvidia will get the top

priority at every fab because they're

the highest margin customer and the

entire supply chain depends on them

downstream. Investors should be aware

that Nvidia is the most exposed stock if

things go south with OpenAI. If

hyperscaler spending pulls back, then

Nvidia will be the first to feel it. But

if AI demand holds or it continues to

grow, Nvidia captures most of that

upside. And if the market panics and

Nvidia stock has a huge decline, I'll be

ready to take my next shot. All right,

besides the companies that have the most

pricing power in their markets, I've

also got my sights set on companies with

massive revenues, huge free cash flows,

and war chests big enough to weather any

storm. Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and

Meta Platforms are the companies that

buy Nvidia's chips. They have their own

chips made by TSMC, made in machines by

ASML, using memory made by Micron. The

entire kitchen we just walked through

exists in large part because these four

companies are willing to serve those

chips to millions of businesses across

Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure,

Google Cloud, and advertise across

Meta's platforms. And here's the mistake

that most investors make over and over

again. They think that just because a

company is big means it has no more room

to grow. So let's do what we always do

and just look at the data. If you bought

Meta stock a year ago, you're up 20%

today. If you bought Amazon stock

instead, you're up 40%, way more than

the overall market. And if you bought

Google like I've been shouting from the

rooftops, you're up 118%

in a single year on a stock that nobody

has ever lost sleep holding. And that's

the entire point. When we do hit a

bottom and the market starts to recover,

institutions don't go from bonds

straight into the riskiest stocks on the

market. They increase their risk bit by

bit, which makes these megacaps their

first stop. These four companies capture

trillions of dollars in revenue,

hundreds of billions of dollars in cash

flows, and they have more than enough

staying power to survive whatever

conflicts come next. These are the exact

companies that big money piles into

first when they rotate back into stocks.

So holding them before that rotation is

exactly how you get in early and double

your money on a stock like Google. And

if the Elon Musk court case goes south

for OpenAI, every one of these companies

has their own AI strategy, their own

models, and their own customers.

Microsoft acquired Inflection. Google

has Gemini. Meta has Llama and Muse

Spark. And Amazon is heavily invested in

Anthropic and they have their own custom

chips. If OpenAI cracks, demand doesn't

disappear. It rotates to whoever can

deliver. That's the hyperscalers. If not

their models, then definitely their

infrastructure. A big shock is coming

and Wall Street isn't ready because

it'll hit the market from two directions

at once. The media doesn't see it

coming, but now you do. You have the

high ground. You have my targets and

maybe even some of your own. The Fear

and Greed Index tells you when to take

your shot. All that's left to do is

wait. Let me know which stocks you're

watching in the comments and what your

plan is as the OpenAI trial and the Iran

conflict continue. And if you want to

see what other stocks I'm buying to get

rich without getting lucky, check out

this video next. Either way, thanks for

watching and until next time, this is

Ticker Symbol You. My name is Alex,

reminding you that the best investment

you can make is in you.