All right, Alexander, let's talk about

project Ukraine. We had uh storm shadow

missiles uh hitting Varonish uh

yesterday.

Uh perhaps a message from the UK

establishment to to Russia even though

Krist is on his way out. We will

continue to to hit you with uh with

missiles. We had uh Russian uh we have a

Russian uh military advance into

Constantin Leman. a quick advance and uh

even even the collective west media is

reporting now on Constantinfka. That's

got to mean something. They've been

they've been ignoring the military

activity on the front line for a good uh

two months. A signal that uh

Costantinoka and Leman will be captured

by the Russians uh any day now. And um

and we have this this row with uh

Zalinski and Navroski in uh

uh in in Navroski, president of Poland.

And this is over the naming of of

Ukrainian military units as well as a

hero's burial to uh Nazi collaborator

uh Melnik. And uh this has upset Poland

and Navroski.

So where where should we begin?

>> And just to add to that list, of course,

another row between Zilinski and Lucenko

with all kinds of threats. Of course,

how could I

>> with all kinds of threats from Zalinski

to attack uh to attack Belleris? I'm

going to suggest we

>> and Putin meeting with or he's going to

is he going to meet Lukashank or talk?

>> They're going to they're going to have a

conversation to discuss all of this.

>> Exactly. [gasps]

Um and um I I going to suggest we do

start with the storm shadow strike on

Varon. Um unreported here in the British

media by the way. There's been no

mention of it that I can find but I

think you have explained exactly what

the reason behind it was. Britain is

very very short of storm shadows. I

should say that each one is handmade.

Something which I found extraordinary

but it's true. Uh France apparently is

the same. So the stock pile is very

small now because most of them have been

used up but there's still a few around

and they launched one into Varones

attacking a electronics factory and

obviously it's intended as a signal to

the Russians that don't expect that

because we're changing prime minister

anything on our part has changed. We're

going to continue to support Ukraine, if

that's the right word, or we're going to

continue with project Ukraine, and we

have no intention of changing or

softening our stance towards you

whatsoever. And the Russians, by the

way, in that respect, haven't needed the

message because they were already saying

that previously, but Peskov, Putin's

spokesman, have said it, too. He said

that um the Russians have no expectation

that anybody from within the political

system in Britain is going to change

policy towards Russia or change support

for project Ukraine. And um the um

Russians know it and they don't expect

any change from Britain and they're

absolutely realistic about this. The

Russians also by the way are barely

reporting this incident. I suspect that

both sides understand that it was a

signal more than anything else.

>> Uh RT test I mean I think the the

English language

English language but the Russ exactly

the Russian the Russian internal media

is not so

>> Yeah.

>> Yeah. Can you say that uh that this is a

message from the UK? Not not so much as

we're going to continue to support

Ukraine but we will continue to attack

you.

>> Oh absolutely.

>> Strikes into Russia. Well, that's

exactly what

>> I've seen some media saying that these

are Ukrainian storm shadows. I mean,

I've actually seen titles which say

Ukrainian storm shadows hit uh a

facility in in Russia.

>> Yeah, which is of course nonsense.

Ukraine has no ability to make storm

shadows. It has no ability to make

missiles except you know these enormous

flamingo missiles which are completely

ineffective. It has no ability to make

ballistic missiles though it's tried to

do so. It's uh um launched what it

claims is its own surfaceto-air missile.

Um again everybody knows that this has

been done mostly with the help of the

British and those who understand about

these things engineers in other words

they say that this missile is far too

slow and not going to be able to

successfully intercept um Russian

ballistic missiles or even cruise

missiles let alone hypersonic missiles.

Ukraine has no ability to conduct these

kind of uh these kind of

military-industrial preparations.

Certainly not on its own territory. All

production now for Ukraine military

production, serious military production

is being done in Europe and it's being

done by the Europeans. And storm shadows

in my opinion are gradually going to

well I mean they've mostly faded away.

There's now a lot of talk about the

British developing and designing a new

cheap missile which supposedly has no

American components. If you know

anything at all, by the way, about

[snorts]

industrial structures in Europe, you

will know that that is impossible. There

has to be some American component in any

weapon system. Even if it's not a

physical component, there will need to

be intellectual property elements uh

which are ultimately American

incorporated in any weapon system. This

is again a joint operation by the US

deep state and the British. the British

producing a missile. Apparently, again,

I'm told, not a particularly effective

missile because the components to

produce it are not there. And the

testing program, despite what you read,

apparently isn't going that well. But

anyway, it's clearly a attempt by the US

deep state to get round whatever

restrictions Trump is ineffectively

placing by having these weapons produced

in Britain and running with the

narrative that uh they're British

designed and British made and have

nothing to do with the United States so

that they can eventually be supplied to

the Ukrainians to conduct the missile

strikes against Russia. So that's what

this is all about. I don't think we're

going to see this in any significant uh

level um this year. It might start to

have an effect next year, but by next

year things will probably have changed

anyway on the ground and anyway, we'll

just have to wait and see.

>> I mean, isn't that the point of this

missile program? I I read the the

Telegraph article about this. M

>> um they're claiming that this missile uh

will in 3 months will will have about u

20 the the the production goals are

about 20 missiles a month.

>> Yes,

>> that's what they're putting the the

goals of of the missile at uh 300

kilometer range.

>> Yes.

>> Um a certain a certain requirement for

the for the warhead

>> and uh and they're testing it and and

the Telegraph's title was pretty pretty

clear. testing long range missiles to

bomb to help Ukraine bomb Moscow. Yeah,

I mean quite quite an incredible

>> title from the [laughter] I mean, wow.

That that was I mean, you read that

title and and I mean, you know, where

where have we where have we uh come to?

>> But but isn't the point

>> to

not to to have the missile ready now,

but to keep the strikes going for the

next two, three years. So even if it's

ready

>> by 2027, let's say it's ready in 3

months or ready in 6 months or ready in

a year,

>> the point to all of this is to continue

the strikes into into Russia and as the

title says into Moscow. It seems like

like the UK and and the US, the

Europeans,

they they don't want to lose the the

ability

to hit uh Moscow and and St. Petersburg.

They don't want to lose it in six

months. They don't want to lose it in in

a year or two. It doesn't I mean my my

point is it doesn't really matter what's

going on on the front lines for them. I

I think they've

>> they've opened up the the uh

>> the the the operational uh ability to

hit Russia and they don't want to lose

that. Well, I think there may be some

truth in that. And I'm sure that there

are some people in London who are now so

hardline and so um obsessed with hitting

and striking at the Russians that this

is basically what they want to do. I

should say it's 20 missiles a month of

what is supposed to be a cheap missile.

Um again, the Russians use that many

missiles in a single strike sometimes.

So I mean I again it highlights the

difference in production and um

capabilities in terms of the two sides

but in my opinion this is more about

political messaging than anything else.

Um it the the title of the article and

the article itself

was unbelievably provocative. It is

basically telling the Russians, we are

your mortal enemies. We will go on

fighting you um what is it you know from

uh Moby Dick you know in in death do I

spit on thee. It it's that kind of

message to the Russians from a newspaper

the Daily Telegraph by the way which is

pretty pretty extreme on these sort of

issues even by British standards. So,

it's a message to the Russians that

Britain is going to remain committed to

this conflict no matter what. Whether

Ukraine goes down, whether it keeps

going, uh Britain is now once and for

all and forever Russia's mortal enemy.

That's what the deep state in London

wants to convey to the Russians. And of

course it's also a message in a time of

political crisis to the British people

to the British government itself to the

new prime minister Andy Bernham whoever

he is well it will be prime minister

Andy Bernham that you know whatever you

may think whatever if you have any fancy

ideas of trying to improve relations

with the Russians forget it because we

are committed to this and we are

committed to this indefinitely. I it

it's as much about that by now than

actually trying to do anything in terms

of changing the direction of the war.

And you know it's going to succeed. Um

we recently did a program about the

political crisis in London and um we

discussed over the course of it how um

the British political system,

constitutional system is about having

the prime minister take over immediately

when um an old prime minister fails and

how this isn't happening. how we have a

month

um of um effectively no prime minister

with a deep state in charge and shaping

and preparing everything. Well,

yesterday there were reports that there

are now attempts to find a Labor MP to

stand against Andy Burnham in the

leaders the Labour Party leadership

election. Not because anybody expects

that this Labour MP, whoever he or she

is, is going to win against Andy

Bernham, but in order to prolong this

transition to the end of August,

precisely in order to ensure that this

policy is going to be embedded

uh into hardwired, if you like, into

British um decision making even more

than it has been up to now and to ensure

that no change, no uh change or shift in

policy is going to be made. So this I

mean it's I think absolutely disastrous

for Britain long term. Um it's not going

to do Ukraine any good either. It's not

going to be obviously good for the

Russians too. But you know we have to

take we have to assume from now on that

Britain for the foreseeable future

during this war beyond this war long

after this war is going to remain an

implacable adversary of Russia. The

hardliners here are in absolute and

complete control.

>> Yeah. I think we have to uh start

>> analyzing things from a perspective of

two wars or or or maybe one battle and

one bigger war and and the the one war

and the one battle is Ukraine.

>> So so maybe

>> yes it's a war but

>> maybe that'll be a battle that that

folds under this bigger war

>> which which is the collective west uh

against uh against Russia. And then of

course you can extend it out and say

it's it's the collective west against

you know Russia, China.

uh bricks etc. But I mean if you look at

it from from a two war perspective then

then I think um things start to make

sense. Um, you know, yesterday we we

talked about uh the the war against uh

Iran and how a Rubicon was crossed um

the the neocons, the United States,

Israel, they they started to attack Iran

and they were and they they have

attacked successfully attacked Thran and

that was something that was that was

considered unthinkable

maybe two three years ago, right? actual

strikes into Thran, missile strikes. And

now that Rubicon has has been crossed

and and it's going to to happen again

because they they've done it now.

They've ripped off the band-aid bandaid

and they've now finally attacked Thran.

So Tran and Iran should be ready for for

attacks to to happen well into the

future. Um the can the same be said

about about Moscow and and St.

Petersburg and the the message from the

the collective west being that that now

we have you know crossed that Rubicon

and and we can hit Moscow and we can hit

St. Petersburg uh when we want going

forward. What once again what's

happening on the front line is is one

thing

>> but what we can do to you

>> is is a separate war, separate battle.

>> Yeah.

>> Um

>> yeah. Are they now going to also open up

a front in much the same way that

they've that they've opened things up in

Russia, in Moscow, in St. Petersburg,

opened opened up those cities and those

regions for strikes and for attacks. Are

they going to do the same thing with

Minsk in Bellarus now? Is that what

we're going to see? Are they going to

extend things out

>> to to Minsk and Barus? Just real quick,

at first I thought Zalinski's messaging

about Barus was about deflecting away

from the drone strike into the bus. the

the the Barussian bus carrying the

children. I thought, okay,

>> he's he's saying this stuff about Barus

and giving them this 7-day ultimatum

because he wants to move away from the

Ukrainian drone that hit the bus. But

>> now we're seeing him say this over and

over again about striking Barus. This

wasn't a one-time warning. I mean, he's

he's issued now four warnings and he's

put a seven-day ultimatum. So I mean are

we going are we seeing the collective

west starting to to extend this war so

that it can even cover Bellarus and and

Mins and Minska perhaps.

>> Right. Well first of all let let me

begin where your point about whether a

Rubicon has been crossed. A Rubicon has

absolutely been crossed. I mean, the

idea of conducting strikes inside the

territory of an adversary superpower has

never happened at any time since the end

of the Second World War until the

conflict in Ukraine began. And we see

this constant pattern of escalation. The

escalation itself in military terms may

be ineffectual,

but it is happening. And I I would just

quickly say something. You said that

there are two wars.

when I discussed the subject with people

whilst I was in Russia and I want to

stress I wasn't talking to government

officials or people of that kind but

when I spoke to people who you know come

from every walk of life in Russia people

who are you know factory workers right

up and you know people in the um more um

executive class in Russian companies I

mean they are all absolutely clear that

this is not a war so much any longer

between Ukraine and Russia. It is a war

between Russia and the collective west.

At that level, at the level of Russian

society, wider Russian society, they

understand that entirely. And that is

indeed where we're heading. And in fact,

we've just had uh today as we're making

this program, shortly before we're

making this program, a comment by a um a

Russian deputy foreign minister in which

he says that the Russians are looking at

the military preparations in Europe and

they're saying to themselves that this

is um operation Barbarasa all over

again. Operation Bob Rossa was Germany's

attack on the Soviet Union on the 22nd

of June 1941. So th that is the

increasing view

in Russia. Now, our friend Gordon Han,

who we've done programs with on our

channel, he recently wrote a piece, a

very interesting, very good piece I

thought, in which he said that probably

most of the political leadership in

Europe actually does not want a war with

Russia. But

that isn't everybody that there is

within the western the west eur the

European political leadership a very

powerful very influential group which

absolutely does want a war with Russia

and is trying to do everything within

its power to make that war happen and

that is absolut I'm sure he's right um

he says says obviously that this kind of

thinking is extraordinarily dangerous

and completely irrational. But again he

warns in this really fine article he

says you know be aware these people do

exist you can see them you can see how

they behave you can see what they say.

He names Kayakalas as everybody does but

there are clearly a lot of other people

like that too. And he says, "Never ever

ever underestimate the irrationality of

these people and their complete lack of

contact with reality." And I I think

this is absolutely correct. I mean, when

you talk about the Rubicon having been

crossed, it has absolutely been crossed

and it will continue to be. And um the

Russians currently are focused on the

conflict in Ukraine. And the Russians

also maintain their contacts with the

Americans. And partly the reason they do

that, it was explained to me very

clearly in Russia is because they're

looking to the Americans to keep these

as they Russians would say crazy people

in Europe under control. They understand

that the Americans are partly complicit

with a lot of this, but they still

believe maybe rightly, maybe wrongly

that the Americans retain some degree of

um agency and reason and realism about

this which you don't find in Europe and

that's that's the strategy at the

moment. But in Russia certainly

despite as I said the appearance of

normaly that you see wherever you go the

assumption is that a long duration

conflict with Europe is not coming it is

underway and that the possibility of

outright war today is very real. Now I

want to repeat again what I've said many

times that the idea of war between

Europe, any part of Europe or even

Europe collectively and Russia without

the United States is a ludicrous

fantasy. But then we come back to what

Gordon Han said. Don't underestimate the

lack of contact with reality of these

people. They are trapped inside their

own world uh their own fantasy world. Um

they not only want to war with Russia,

they are convinced they can win it. And

I believe you met someone in Cyprus and

we won't say who or in what context who

spoke to I who has contacts. I believe

with the very highest level of the

European leadership and this person told

you the very same thing.

>> Yeah, absolutely. They they there are

people very high up in in the EU

>> who absolutely believe that uh that

Ukraine is winning

>> in Ukraine on the front lines that

they're winning and that uh they can

absolutely defeat uh Russia

>> Russia

>> without with with or without the the

United States. uh Bellarus, are they

looking to do to Bellarus what they're

doing to to Moscow and St. Petersburg

and and to Russia?

>> Very plausibly. And I think this is

something else. I I um contrary to most

people take these warnings from um

Zalinski extremely seriously. Um things

are not going well on the front lines

and we will get to that shortly. He's

also Zalinski has catapulted himself as

you rightly said at the start of the

program into a furious row with Poland.

I mean he's naming military units in

Poland uh in Ukraine rather sorry after

people who were collaborated with the

Germans during the Second World War and

who the Poles accuse rightly by the way

of having carried out monstrous war

crimes against Poles. I I you know I

have many people I've got many people

who are polls and they know all about

this and they're furious about this. So

he's he's he's managed to do that. He um

continues with this quarrel. Any

sensible

rational leader in this kind of

situation in Zalinsk's position would

want to calm down the argument with the

polls. He instead is escalating it. He's

being incredibly rude again. He's had to

uh give up his honor, an honor that the

polls gave him. So, he's got into a

furious angry row with the polls which

is getting worse and worse all the time.

And he won't let it go. And at the same

time, he's making these threats against

Bellarus. And I take these threats

extremely seriously.

Look, uh Zalinski is under pressure.

Things are not going well on the front

lines. He has told the president of

Honduras, one of the few people

apparently um outside the collective

west that he speaks to that he

absolutely um is serious about these

threats to Bellarus. And I think it

would be very very unwise to assume that

he's not going to act on them. And this

is, by the way, part of the pattern of

Zilinski whenever things are not going

well on the front lines or whenever he's

got, you know, a major issue with with

the polls as he has at the moment, which

is he lashes out. He he he launches

offensives, adventures in places like K

region, if you remember. He conducts um

violent attacks inside Russia. He tries

to assassinate the president of Russia

as he's done more than one time. And

this has, by the way, been admitted by

his current chief of staff, Kiril

Budanov. And he's now making these very,

very um extreme threats against

Bellarus. So quite plausibly, we're

going to see missile strikes against

Bellarus. I am not, by the way, uh

ruling out the possibility of some kind

of um ground forces attack against

Bellarus as well. It's entirely in

Zalinsk's character. He will rationalize

it by saying that doing something like

that is going to divert the Russians.

They're going to have to send

reinforcements to uh uh Belleris from

the front lines. Of course, what it's

really going to do is drain Ukrainian

resources rather than Russian ones on

the front lines, but it is the sort of

thing Zanski does. And this is where it

becomes really dangerous because he's

going to have the backing of the same

people in London and Brussels that we

have just been talking about. Just as

these people want a war with Russia,

they want they are determined to

overthrow the government of Bellarus to

overthrow Lucashanka. they constantly

meet what's her name Tanovskaya

the opposition leader of Belleris um

that agenda is there for them and Putin

and Lashenko taking this extremely

seriously that's why they're setting up

it's going to be more than just a

telephone conversation there's going to

be military discussions there's going to

be all sorts of plans taken to counter

this thing and we're going to see

various moves take place over over the

next few days and weeks. In my opinion,

the war is getting more dangerous. The

the the situation on the front lines is

now reaching the point where even the

BBC and the New York Times are starting

to see that Don Bass is about to fall.

Don Bass, we've talked about this many

times, the ISW has talked about it, is

the key fortified line. um given that

there is no willingness

either in Kiev or in Europe to conduct

serious negotiations, real negotiations

which have any prospect of succeeding

with with the Russians. What else can

they do? And what else anyway would

these people who we've just been talking

about want to do other than escalate the

war? And the fact that the Americans

at some level are leaving Europe,

they're pulling troops out of Europe,

that's going to make them even more

determined to escalate more and faster.

[snorts]

>> Yeah, I get the sense that the Europeans

don't don't really care that much about

Donbas.

They're just they're just sending the

the the message that uh that Ukraine if

they can keep keep things um at a slow

advance for the Russian military or some

sort of a stalemate

>> uh they're fine with it. I I mean

there's an understanding that Donbas

will be captured by Russia eventually,

but for them it's it's just inflict as

much pain and damage that you can on

Russia.

>> But I mean, you know, they don't really

care about about Dumbbas or the east of

Ukraine. I I I think they've moved on

from from the special military operation

and the war in Ukraine. I mean they care

about say say Kiev and Odessa and and of

course the west of Ukraine. But as far

as the war in Donbas, I think the the

European elite and NATO are are just

fine with with the Ukraine military um

inflicting as much as much damage on

Russia as possible and and they could

then focus on the actual drive towards a

conflict with Russia and Bellarus and

and for them Barus may be lowhanging

fruit. You know, they've always wanted

this regime change of Lucenko going back

to 2020.

We're hearing a lot more about

Tikhanovskaya, right? She's she's she's

now appearing in the media a whole lot

more. So, that's got to tell you

something.

>> And um and the way they they're probably

seeing things is look, if we can pick

off Bellarus,

>> that then we're ever closer to to

getting the regime change in uh

>> yeah,

>> in Russia. So, I mean, you know, a

strike from Ukraine into Barus, I agree

with you, is is very possible. uh storm

shadows and and other you know NATO or

collective west weapons into Barus is

very possible.

>> Yes.

>> I'm also afraid that Putin speaking to

Barus will tell Lucenko a maximum

restraint. That could be the message

from Putin as well. Um we will absorb we

will absorb the hits that the collective

west sends at us. I mean,

I'm not saying that's that's what Putin

is going to advise Lucenko, but it could

be possible that just like what's

happening in Moscow or or St.

Petersburg, the advice to to to Bellarus

would be let's just continue to focus on

Donbas and if they strike without ground

troops. If it's just drone and missile

strikes, we'll absorb it. Of course,

ground troops, I think you're looking at

a Kursk type of uh of disaster. But if

it's just contained to drones and

missiles,

>> you know, Putin might tell Lucenko,

right?

>> Just absorb it.

>> Right. There's a number of things to say

here. Firstly, I I I think we have seen

an evolution

um in Europe at least about the war. And

I'll tell you what I think it is. I at

the start of the war, it was all about

regime change in Moscow. I mean, it's

never been about Donbass. The Europeans

have never been interested in Donbass. I

mean um what they always wanted to

achieve was a situation where some kind

of regime change in Moscow was um

brought about. I I remember again I go

back to the Munich Security Conference

um in 20 February 2022. What got all

those people excited was not the

prospect of Ukraine retaining Donbass or

gaining back control of Donbass. It was

regime change in Moscow. I don't think

it is about regime change in Moscow as

such anymore. I think it is about

something bigger than that now. And

we're talking about, you know, the

ultras, the very very hardline people. I

think it is about defeating Russia,

about as they would say, solving

Europe's Russia problem. I mean, this is

the kind of rhetoric these people engage

in. Solving the Russia problem once and

for all. And we're getting all of these

academic discussions taking place in the

United States, but even more in Europe

about supposedly decolonizing Russia,

which is of course um a code word for

breaking it up. And I think this is now

really what the war has got what the war

for the very hardliners that we've been

talking about in Europe and in London.

That's what that's

evolved into. Now,

having said that, obviously, if Donbass

falls,

um, Ukraine likely loses the whole of

eastern Ukraine east of the Neper. I

mean, it becomes very difficult. You

look at the geography, becomes very,

very difficult to see how Ukraine can

hold on to the rest of its territory

east of the Nepa. So if the war

continues,

Ukraine east of the Neper would

eventually be lost. It wouldn't take

actually in my opinion even that long.

The question then becomes if you want to

continue the war indefinitely, can you

hold on to the line of the Neper? I'm

going to say this. I think that's going

to be very challenging for the Europeans

to do. But maybe that is the strategy

about Belleris and about Putin giving

Lukashanka advice. I don't think that

actually is the is the actual dynamics

of it. I think the person who has sought

restraint and who has tried to keep

Belleris out of the war up to now has

been Luranka. He has not wanted Belleris

to be directly involved in the war.

Apparently, he rejected a Russian

request

back in February 2022

for the Bellarus military to join the

advance towards Kiev that took place

then. and he's always tried to maintain

at least some kind of stable situation

with the Ukrainians. My own personal

view on the contrary is if if the

Ukrainians are reckless enough to expand

the war into into Belleris, it's going

to compound their problems because that

will indeed create a situation where the

Russian army moves into Bellarus and

then becomes positioned

much more effectively to advance into

western Ukraine than it is today. So I

don't think it's Putin seeking to

restrain Lucanka. I think initially it

will be Putin talking with Lucashanka

about how to defend Belleris. But if

there is an attack on Belleris, even if

it's only a missile attack on Belleris,

over time it's going to evolve into a

massive problem for Ukraine and for the

West as well because it will bring more

Russian forces further westward.

But isn't that what the the West wants?

I mean

once again leaving Ukraine out of this

for the west

>> and and Zalinski's situation on the

front line in Constantino Galan for for

the west do they not see this as an

opening to

>> to strike at Bellarus and to get that

regime change of Lucenko.

>> Yeah. Well, first of all, I mean the

question is whether they would get a

leak regime change of Lucen on

Lucashanka strike on Belleris is far

more likely I would have thought to

harden support for Lucashanka in

Bellarus and to confirm what Lucena has

been saying all along that there is a

threat to Bellarus from the west. He's

been saying this by the way ever since

the 2021 crisis. So um I I think that it

would not

bring about regime change in Belleris.

It would commit Belleris even more to an

alliance with Russia and the Russians

will defend Bellarus. I mean that about

that I don't think there's any doubt at

all. They have said it there there is a

formal military alliance between the two

countries and the Russian army will go

into Bellarus to defend it. Now there

may be some people some strategists in

the west who think it is a better it is

better to bring the Russian army

westwards to the border of Poland. I am

not a military strategist but I don't

understand that logic at all. I would

have thought you want to keep the

Russians further away not closer to you.

Certainly not now when you're trying to

conduct a rearmament, a massive

rearmament program and are not

succeeding. But as we've discussed in

many, you know, throughout this program,

we're not dealing dealing with fully

rational people and there may be some

complicated game here because of some

kind of complicated strategy which I

don't understand and which probably if

it was ever explained to me would make

no sense to me. But anyway, to repeat

again, I take Zalinsk's threats against

Belleris extremely seriously. I know

there's some people who think it's just

Zilinski sounding off and some kind of

poker game that he's playing. I don't

think so. I think he's absolutely

serious about what he's doing. The big

question is, will

he move forward with it? Again, it

really depends on the Americans more

than anything else. Trump has developed

a good relationship with Lucas Shanka.

He's just rode back sanctions to some

extent against Bellarus. Um, one would

like to assume, one would want to assume

that the Americans who want to pull out

of Europe, want to pull more and more of

their troops out of Europe and Trump

himself that the Americans will be

telling Zilinski under no circumstances

even think of doing this thing. But as

we discussed in this program, the

Americans are hardly themselves united

about these things.

>> Exactly. It's exactly uh right. No, I

mean they're they may be looking at

Barus in much the same way that they

looked at Kursk. You know, things are

going bad in in Constantin Liman.

>> So, we need to extend the Russian

military, which is which is what the the

excuse was for curse. Let's remember

that Kursk at first was was to make a

dash towards the nuclear power plant.

Exactly. And ex and then exert leverage.

But then the narrative changed and the

objectives changed and everything

switched to extending the Russian

military. So in this instance the the uh

the first reason for striking Barus will

be to take out the radars and these air

defense systems

>> and by doing that you create instability

in Barus. You rec you create instability

for Lucenko

>> which also creates instability for Putin

and for Russia. Yeah.

>> But then it might turn into a narrative

of of extending the Russian military.

>> Exactly. which is the same playbook as

as Kursk because

>> absolutely

>> once again Constantino Galman is is

about to fall. Absolutely they are. And

Don Bass um is going to follow the the

New York Times um starting to talk about

this.

Even more interesting the BBC and it was

very interesting article in the BBC

because for the first time that I can

remember um BBC journalists go to

Ukraine. They're told the situation in

in Constantin specifically is fully

under control

and the BBC journalists don't believe

this. Don't believe what the Ukrainians

are saying and it's passed on into the

article which the BBC publishes. So some

people at least have doubts about this

and you starting to get the sense that

this great narrative about the

Ukrainians resting back the initiative,

winning back territory, gaining more

territory over the last few months than

the Russians have done, which isn't

true, by the way. Um um some people are

beginning to have doubts about this. We

we've said that this would happen. we

would eventually get to this point and

it's starting to come about and well

Constantine

has either fallen or is about to fall.

Leman has either fallen or is about to

fall. Ry Alexandra has definitely

fallen. Other places are falling as

well.

We are starting to look at the end of

Donbass and the battle of Donbass which

has been ongoing

basically since the summer of 2022 when

the Russians advanced and captured

Marupople.

Yeah, just to wrap up the video, um I I

think that the the miscalculation from

the Kremlin will be that they believe

that once they capture Donbas, uh they

will be able to convince their partners

in the West to some sort of an

agreement. I think that especially the

Europeans

and and the UK, of course, the EU and

the UK, I think they're going to be

completely unfased by it

>> and they're going to they're going to

say, "We need to continue. We need to

escalate even more now with Russia and

those are going to be the voices of

Callus Mertz Macaron maybe Andy Burnham

right

>> well definitely Andy Bernham would be

under no doubt about that at all here's

what I think is going to happen I've

already discussed this I think that

after the fall of Donbass uh we are

going to get basically an ultimatum from

Putin from the Russians say look we've

captured Donbass um this is the last

opportunity to move to come to a

negotiation a resolution Istanbul plus

but it won't be Istanbul plus it will be

Istanbul plus+ because the Russians at

every level now including in a way if

not in a way I mean definitely Putin

himself are saying that there have to be

major political changes in Kiev as well

there have to be new elections a new

government in Kiev Zalinski himself is

impossible we can't work with him so the

Russians will probably say, "Look, we

won Dolbass. We're going to win in

Zaparoia and Hassan. We're going to win

the war alto together. We are now

offering you this last opportunity to

make peace. If you don't make peace, we

will continue the war." My overwhelming

sense when I was in Russia, I don't get

this. I didn't get any feeling that in

Russia anybody has any serious doubts

about how obsessed with Russia the

Europeans have become. Um, there may be

some lingering hopes that something can

be sorted out with the Americans, but as

I've discussed in previous programs, I

think this is more trying to get the

Americans to keep the Europeans up to a

certain point under control than any

real belief any longer that there's

going to be a deal a real deal with the

Americans done. and a Putin spokesman

Ushakov

um two days ago made a statement which

clearly originates with Putin himself.

He said the Russians are no longer

waiting for Anchorage. They no longer

have any expectations anchorage will

ever happen. What they're waiting for is

the military victory which they're going

to achieve. So that essentially if it's

Ushakov saying it, you can be sure that

Putin is thinking it too.

>> Yeah. Will it affect the the west the

west?

>> Oh, no. It's not going to it's not going

to it's not going to affect the west's

thinking. I mean,

there is just a small chance that it

might affect American thinking. And the

Americans

for the Americans

now even more than it's been at any

point recently, it's m mostly about

China. And for that reason, they don't

want their, you know, large forces tied

down in Europe. But of course, there are

still Americans who still remain focused

and obsessed with Russia. So, you know,

we're not talking about all Americans,

but there is perhaps a question mark

about whether ultimately and in the end,

the Americans will be fully signed up to

this. In Europe, I don't think there's

any question about this any longer. You

only have to listen to me and Mackro and

the British and look at you know the

missile strikes and ver vones and the

question is answered for you. As I said

it's it's u Mobyick in death. Do I spit

on thee? They're not going to give up.

they are going to continue with this

thing until they hope [clears throat]

there is a final victory

against the Russians or until the point

comes when there is in effect a defeat

in Europe, another collapse in Europe,

um which I think is ultimately probably

what we're going to see.

>> Yeah. Okay. Um, I mean, you know, if you

put yourself in in in the Europeans's uh

shoes and try to think, you know, crazy

and mad like they do,

>> why why would they give up? They're

they're able to strike Russia uh pre204.

>> Well, I mean,

>> for them for them, this is this is a big

step forward in in an overall conflict

with Russia by 2030.

>> Well, what they go on and on about. I

know I I if if you are rational,

>> if you send your people to Moscow and

Russia, if you see what the actual

economic situation is there, you would

understand how utterly fantastic and mad

that scenario actually is. to repeat

again and to an extent that I had not

anticipated the economic balance is now

shifting in in Russia's favor to an

extent that even I did not expect but of

course we're not talking about fully

rational people and the problem is they

will cherrypick the information they

want which will validate whatever it is

that they want to do. So the fact that

they're able to strike Verones or indeed

Moscow, at least as they say to

themselves, is a reason to continue. The

fact that Russia's economy is getting

stronger. Its alliances are getting

stronger. It's just hosted a massive

summit meeting with ASEAN. Well, that

doesn't even register for them. it it

irrationally it ought to but the fact

that there's been a mass a major Russia

Assan summit meeting for example

[clears throat] completely unreported

here in Britain

>> no I mean it goes back to what what you

said and what I and what I know about uh

about what's happening at the very top

of of Europe is that they actually

believe

>> that the Russian economy is crumbling.

They actually believe

>> that they can defeat Russia and and

regime change Putin. I mean, they they

believe it. It's not they're not acting.

>> No, at least at least not everybody. At

least not everybody.

>> Maybe some people are acting. Maybe

Maron is acting, but there are other

people that

>> who are not acting. And that is a very

very important point and it is one that

I think people need to understand. We

are not dealing with rational fully

rational people. We are dealing with

obsessive people and they have long

since lost contact with reality. They're

not able any longer to assimilate

information which contra contradicts

their view. And I mean the point you've

just made is absolutely right.

>> I wonder if the Kremlin understands

that. Anyway,

>> well, we'll see. I mean, I think I think

so. Yeah.

>> Yeah, I think so. I think so. But

anyway, we'll see.

>> We'll see. All right, we'll end the

video there. The durant.local.com. We're

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