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Latest Science News July 2025 | Sabine Hossenfelder & Lawrence Krauss Discuss What's New In Science

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Latest Science News July 2025 | Sabine Hossenfelder & Lawrence Krauss Discuss What's New In Science

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1863 segments

0:00

[Music]

0:08

Okay, here we are in the Origins podcast

0:11

for one of my favorite times every month

0:13

when I get to speak to one of my

0:15

favorite people, Sabina Hosenfelder, and

0:17

I get to I get to hear her unique take

0:20

on science and we have a discussion of

0:22

of science topics in the news, uh,

0:25

what's new in science. And it's it's

0:27

something I've come to really enjoy and

0:29

I'm really happy to say as far as I can

0:31

tell other people actually enjoy it too.

0:33

So Sabina, how are you doing there in in

0:35

Europe? Is it hot?

0:38

Today is fine. Uh it's actually raining

0:40

outside. So um yeah. Well, good to see

0:44

you and good to see you in a studio this

0:46

time.

0:46

Yeah, that's right. I try Well, I try,

0:48

you know, following you, I try and up

0:51

the game a little bit because you're

0:52

always so professional. So it's nice to

0:55

be in a studio. Thank you. Well, we're

0:58

going to talk about a whole bunch of

0:59

interesting cosmic and terrestrial

1:01

topics today. And speaking of

1:04

terrestrial, you you're going to talk

1:06

about a topic that's supposedly going to

1:08

change the future of the world. So, why

1:11

don't you talk about that?

1:13

Yeah. Um, I want to talk about hydrogen.

1:16

Um, so this is a topic I have followed

1:19

for a long time because I have a

1:21

personal grudge uh with the German

1:24

government that's invested a lot into

1:26

the so-called hydrogen economy that

1:28

isn't going anywhere. So, uh, I have a

1:31

lot of misgivings about this stuff

1:33

because I've always said like it doesn't

1:34

make any sense. Like to begin with, um,

1:38

you know, the idea that we would produce

1:41

hydrogen from renewable energy and then

1:44

use that to, um, you know, create

1:47

electricity, um, is just it's terribly

1:50

energy inefficient. So, it doesn't

1:51

really make any sense.

1:53

Yeah. Um and and so in in practical

1:56

terms, what's actually happened is that

1:59

uh we're paying taxes for what's been

2:01

called the hydrogen ready power plants.

2:05

What what what are they? They're

2:07

actually just gas power plants because

2:10

uh once you have something that can deal

2:12

with methane uh that has a lot of hes in

2:16

it, um it's not that difficult to switch

2:19

it to uh burning hydrogen. So, and and

2:23

hydrogen has has a lot of problems. Um,

2:26

the I don't want to go through the the

2:28

whole list, but besides the energy

2:30

efficiency, uh, I think that the the

2:32

next biggest problem might be what's

2:35

been called hydrogen in brittlement.

2:37

Like whenever you you want to store the

2:39

stuff or you you want to push it through

2:41

pipes, you have this issue that hydrogen

2:44

is the smallest of all atoms. uh and so

2:48

so it creeps into everything uh and

2:51

destroys the material sooner or later.

2:53

So and so um I think that this is going

2:55

to become uh a maintenance nightmare uh

2:58

which is also going to drive up the co

3:01

cost. Let me let me interrupt for one

3:03

second just because we we know it but

3:04

just so people know you might and in in

3:07

in light of the things you said already

3:09

people might say why hydrogen at all but

3:11

the whole point

3:12

initially is hydrogen burns with oxygen

3:15

to form water and releases energy and

3:18

therefore there's no carbon dioxide

3:20

there's no bad byproducts that's why

3:22

people were there no fossil fuel carbon

3:25

byproducts and that's that causes the

3:27

initial excitement about about hydrogen

3:30

and why there's so such verbiage and

3:32

I'll also say I used to speak out

3:34

against it because in the old days when

3:36

I did people didn't realize that you

3:38

know it sounds great except you get the

3:40

hydrogen from fossil fuels so you end up

3:43

in the old days you used to so it end up

3:45

it was a scam because you didn't save

3:46

any carbon or anything to get the

3:48

hydrogen but things have changed so

3:50

anyway just to preface where you're at

3:52

go on

3:53

yeah uh uh that's right um so um at the

3:57

moment we get almost all the hydrogen

4:00

actually from methane or coal in some

4:03

cases. Uh because exactly because there

4:06

are all these H's in there. But if you

4:08

have methane, that's CH4. Um you also

4:11

have the carbon. And so if you you split

4:14

off the hydrogen, you're left with

4:15

carbon dioxide, which is exactly what

4:17

you don't want. Um and so this is why

4:20

that's the idea. We produce it from

4:22

renewables like from solar or wind or

4:24

something. And that just isn't

4:26

happening. And even if we would manage

4:28

to get it done, uh it would be

4:29

ridiculously expensive. So I I doubt

4:31

it'll ever make sense. Um nevertheless,

4:35

uh the German government and also the uh

4:39

many European countries and also the

4:41

United States, by the way, have put a

4:42

lot of money into this so-called

4:43

hydrogen economy. Uh and and but so that

4:46

so there's one possibility to make sense

4:50

of this which is if we were to find

4:53

naturally occurring reservoirs of

4:56

hydrogen. This has been called white

4:58

hydrogen. Not actually referring to the

5:00

color of the stuff but just they have a

5:02

color scale that tells you where the

5:04

stuff comes from. And so this white

5:06

hydrogen uh is something that you can

5:08

find in the ground in some places like

5:10

like natural gas, like methane. uh and

5:13

so so it gets stuck in like porous rocks

5:16

uh and then it can drill into it and um

5:18

I actually don't know exactly how it

5:19

works but you know they get it out of

5:21

the ground and they can use it uh and

5:23

and so um the issue is just that um so

5:26

far there's been only one place where

5:30

they actually do this uh which I think

5:32

is in Marley or somewhere so it exists

5:35

but it's been believed to be really rare

5:39

and then like two years ago um there was

5:42

a group of French researchers uh we uh

5:46

that claimed they'd found a reservoir of

5:49

white hydrogen actually pretty close to

5:52

the border to um Germany and just like

5:55

two months ago they claimed they had

5:57

found a second one a little bit further

5:59

north um yeah so big of true like so we

6:02

haven't actually seen them extract

6:04

anything from the ground and then the

6:06

other thing that happened was a group of

6:08

geologists uh went and tried to

6:10

generally analyze ize like the the

6:13

possible abundance of the stuff in the

6:15

ground based on what we know about how

6:18

those rocks formed. There there are

6:20

different ways that hydrogen could be

6:23

formed underground. Uh for example,

6:25

because um water comes into contact with

6:30

some very hot stones that contain

6:33

certain minerals and so it gets split uh

6:36

into hydrogen and oxygen and the

6:39

hydrogen then embeds uh in the stone or

6:41

it could it could happen through

6:42

radioactive decay and and some some

6:44

other possibilities. and they just

6:46

produced this global map where they said

6:48

look in these places uh it's possible

6:51

that you can find something um and uh

6:55

they estimate that all these hydrogen

6:59

reserves combined could power the world

7:02

for 100,000 years. This is why I say big

7:05

if true, right?

7:07

So of course just because you put it on

7:09

a map doesn't mean you can actually

7:11

extract it. So there are lots of ifs and

7:13

thens there. But honestly to me it was

7:16

like I I got this feeling like we might

7:18

have underestimated

7:20

um if if not um

7:23

you know with an actual mathematical

7:25

estimate uh estimate but um

7:29

unconsciously how much of this stuff

7:31

might already be lying around. So if it

7:34

was true and we could just you know if

7:36

even if it's just a fraction of this and

7:38

I mean if it only if it lasts for a

7:40

hundred years or something that would be

7:41

a really big deal

7:43

and there are a lot of startups I mean

7:45

they're saying a lot is maybe is saying

7:47

too much but a couple of startups who

7:50

are trying to to look into this and are

7:52

actually trying to extract uh this white

7:54

hydrogen. So I think that's a very

7:56

interesting development.

7:58

Yeah, I think it is. I mean I learned

7:59

about it from you and I look I was

8:01

looking at that paper you mentioned it a

8:02

little bit and um I was intrigued

8:05

because it does make sense uh you know I

8:09

many years ago when I was trying I I

8:12

first proposed we look for antiutrinos

8:14

from the earth to do geoysics and now

8:16

people do it but this was 40 years ago

8:20

um there are lots of interesting

8:22

processes radioactive processes but

8:24

other processes and let's face it

8:26

there's lots you know when I think about

8:27

deep ocean vents

8:29

what comes out of there is hydrogen

8:30

sulfide. There's lots of hydrogen coming

8:32

out of those vents. So, when you think

8:34

about when you when I saw that, I

8:35

thought, you know, it makes sense. There

8:36

probably is a lot of a lot of hydrogen

8:39

that may come out. And, you know, but as

8:41

you point out, it's a long way from

8:43

maybe having it to making it practical

8:45

and useful. Um, but it does at least it

8:49

made me feel a little bad because I used

8:50

to make so much fun of the hydrogen

8:52

people by saying, "Yeah, first you get

8:54

gasoline, then you then you you burn it

8:56

to get hydrogen and then you use your

8:57

free clean hydrogen." It was just it it

8:59

was a it seemed like a scam. Plus, it's

9:02

a little bit dangerous to transport, but

9:04

but as you said, also it's very

9:06

invasive. But one thing that did occur

9:08

to me, I do want to ask you this. You

9:10

sort of mentioned it as a negative, but

9:12

but if if we had so much hydrogen, we

9:15

didn't know what to do with it. Then if

9:17

you had something like fishision or f I

9:20

mean obviously you had fusion, it' be

9:21

different. But even fishision something

9:23

that uh the problem with fishing plants

9:26

and fusion plants is you produce

9:28

electricity, which is not a problem, but

9:30

it's nice. Um, but you do sometimes un

9:34

until everyone has electric cars, you

9:36

you don't necessarily use electricity

9:38

and and

9:41

if you had hydrogen and combined with

9:43

oxygen, you would be you would be able

9:45

to power as fuel cars. And so it

9:47

occurred to me that um maybe if we had a

9:51

lot of some kind of um renewable or

9:55

carbon-f free power source then

9:58

splitting hydrogen oxygen from seawater

10:01

which is very energy intensive. If we

10:03

had a surplus of energy it might not be

10:05

completely crazy because not all forms

10:08

of energy we need are in the form of

10:10

electricity. uh you know, you may want

10:12

to have fuel. It's and and we don't have

10:15

these grids that allow you to move

10:16

electricity and and batteries that allow

10:18

you to store it. So, if you could

10:20

convert what would otherwise be

10:22

electricity to hydrogen that you could

10:24

use as fuel locally in your car or in a

10:26

power plant, it might not be so crazy. I

10:29

was thinking about it. What do you

10:30

think?

10:32

Yeah. Um I I I think that's that's uh

10:35

totally correct. In the end, I think

10:36

it'll come down to how how expensive is

10:38

it? But uh like this this is the most

10:41

practical application of hydrogen that

10:43

people have thought of. Uh you could use

10:45

it for transportation

10:47

um for example in big trucks or

10:49

something because you know these

10:50

hydrogen tanks are kind of heavy um so

10:53

for you know for for standard passenger

10:55

cars is maybe not so great. I mean they

10:57

do exist but um you know they have some

11:00

down size but you know if you if you

11:02

have a big truck that that weighs some

11:04

tons already it doesn't really matter

11:06

basically. Um and the other thing is

11:09

that you could use it to store energy.

11:13

Uh like so this is one of those things

11:16

um where for example in Germany there

11:19

was supposed to be a project where they

11:20

had these offshore wind turbines that

11:23

were supposed to produce hydrogen and

11:25

they wanted to pump this uh through some

11:27

pipes uh to somewhere on on land. Uh and

11:30

so if you have a surplus of energy from

11:32

there you can store it in the hydrogen

11:34

and then you can use it when the winters

11:36

blow. Basically, that was the idea. I'm

11:38

not sure what happened to this. The

11:39

issue with all these things is that um

11:44

you know,

11:45

they're too expensive. Uh and and and so

11:48

so especially Germany like we have all

11:51

that coal like and then it's that cheap

11:54

so why don't we just dig up some more

11:56

coal? Um yeah. So so it becomes a big

11:58

political problem.

12:01

Yeah. Yeah. Well, that's the problem. I

12:03

mean that was always my by the way my

12:05

concern about fishing. I have no

12:06

problem. I don't have any safety

12:09

concerns about nuclear reactors,

12:11

well-designed nuclear reactors, but

12:13

given all the regulations and everything

12:14

else, they're just damn expensive

12:16

compared to certain things. And so, it

12:18

was an economic question for me as much

12:19

as anything else. it. Yeah. Um but the

12:22

idea of storing it rather until we have

12:24

good batteries or a better a better

12:28

infrastructure nationwide to transport

12:30

electricity it, you know, if you

12:32

transport it as hydrogen and then turn

12:34

it into electricity here where you it

12:36

might it might work. On the other hand,

12:38

if I saw a truck that said hydrogen and

12:40

I think I've seen it, I tend to try and

12:42

steer clear of them having been

12:44

remembering the Zeppelin episodes that

12:46

from the old days. uh you know it is

12:49

kind of flammable. Anyway um okay so

12:52

much for terrestrial hydrogen in a sense

12:54

I want to move now to the cosmos cosmic

12:57

hydrogen which is one of the things and

13:00

cosmic hydrogen exists mostly in the

13:02

form of stars or a lot of star stars and

13:04

galaxies and it leads me to the uh news

13:07

of the month which I think is I think is

13:09

pro probably the most the biggest story

13:12

I I heard reported among the news of the

13:14

month was the the opening up of the Very

13:17

Ruben um telescope in Chile. um which is

13:21

named after a lovely woman I knew Vera

13:23

Rubin and and and her story is poignant

13:27

um as a as a young woman scientist at a

13:29

hard time to be a young woman scientist

13:31

but she never harped on that and she did

13:33

her work and and Vera Rubin was one of

13:36

the first people not the only one she

13:37

could sense to get most of the credit

13:39

now but not the only one to first argue

13:42

that there was dark matter in our galaxy

13:44

by looking at the rotation curves of our

13:46

galaxy and other galaxies looking at

13:48

hydrogen lines and and and hydrogen gas

13:50

clouds and um and um making an argument

13:55

which at the time many people didn't

13:56

believe that our galaxy was orbiting was

14:00

was uh rotating too fast and now we see

14:04

most other galaxies are and you and I

14:06

have different views of might what may

14:07

be the cause of that but um uh anyway

14:10

I'm very happy it's named after her she

14:12

was a lovely woman and a and a and a

14:13

good really good scientist but it's a

14:15

telescope in Chile

14:17

8.4 4 meter 8.4 meter telescope which is

14:21

pretty big and first of all it's nice to

14:23

see new telescope being built living in

14:26

a country I don't live in the United

14:27

States but living next to a country

14:28

which can't seem to build a big

14:30

telescope because it might offend some

14:33

deity of some weird indigenous group

14:36

that that have land on it and the the 30

14:40

meter telescope and is now a dead

14:42

project probably in the United States

14:43

and the Trump administration wants to

14:45

kill it anyway. It's nice to see a new

14:47

telescope being built and it's a very

14:48

diff different type of sculpt telescope.

14:50

It got a lot of press because it

14:52

produced some pretty pictures, which is

14:54

generally what telescopes do for people

14:56

on the ground. That's what people like

14:58

about them is some pretty pictures. It's

14:59

not really designed to produce these

15:01

pretty pictures. It's designed to scan

15:03

the entire southern sky every day, every

15:06

two or three days for the next 10 years

15:08

to make to make what if you were to look

15:11

at it might look like one of those most

15:13

boring 10-year long movies you could

15:15

imagine, but if you're a scientist, it

15:17

could be interesting. The idea is that

15:19

it's it's got this incredibly big field

15:22

of view. you it it essentially 45 moons

15:26

worth of the sky at any one time as

15:29

opposed to the James Webste telescope

15:31

which has also got a pretty big field of

15:32

view but it's like one moon. So and it's

15:35

it it's and it moves faster than any

15:37

other terrestrial telescope without

15:40

jittering and therefore it can it could

15:42

see the entire sky every three nights

15:44

and it and it and it has the largest

15:47

camera in the world a car-sized camera

15:50

3.2 2 gigapixel camera. Um, which you

15:55

know maybe you know which is always

15:56

amazing me to think about because I know

15:58

in 10 years you and our our iPhones will

16:01

have 3.2 gapixel cameras but right now

16:04

uh a 3.2 gigapixel camera is a thou you

16:06

know it's almost 100 times bigger than

16:08

the camera in your iPhone. it it uh it's

16:12

it produces a single image that would in

16:14

order to see it adequately require 400

16:17

ultra HD TVs

16:20

and each image each night it produces 20

16:23

terabytes of data which is more than the

16:25

information in all the world's books and

16:28

so it sounds great and it's because it's

16:30

fast moving you can see things but

16:31

because it has such a big field of view

16:33

and it looks night after night after

16:34

night um it can look for transient

16:37

events all over the sky time and it's

16:40

already in and one 10 the data they

16:43

released was only the first 10 hours

16:44

which already allowed them to see 10

16:46

million galaxies in that big image but

16:48

also discover all these asteroids

16:50

because they can actually see them

16:52

moving through the system and so

16:55

it it sounds great and it I'm sure it

16:57

will be great and it's touted to do many

17:00

things of course like it's almost a dur

17:03

regor it's almost required

17:06

constitutionally for every one of these

17:07

telescopes to say that they're going

17:09

learn about dark matter and dark energy

17:11

as a result. And I think you and I are

17:13

more skeptical sometimes. I think it'll

17:15

actually, to be fair, because it has

17:18

such a big field of view, it'll look at

17:19

something called gravitational lensing.

17:21

It'll be able to see lensing very, very

17:23

well. And that at least does map the

17:25

gravity of field of galaxies. So maybe

17:27

it'll reveal stuff about dark matter.

17:30

I'm still not convinced about dark

17:32

energy, but it actually may be most

17:34

useful for saving our lives in the long

17:37

run because it's going to discover

17:39

thousands of new asteroids, some of whom

17:41

may be some of which may be on a be

17:44

trajectory of on Earth,

17:47

an earth crossing trajectory, and maybe

17:49

give us enough time to save ourselves

17:51

one way or another. But but you know I

17:53

don't want to make too much light of it

17:55

because it is a new window on the

17:56

universe that particularly is good for

17:59

seeing a lot of things at once and

18:01

transient events supernovi pulsating

18:03

stars and it may be useful

18:07

in integrating with the with with

18:09

gravitational wave detectors because

18:11

it's going to be able to look in real

18:13

time very fast for odd signals. So when

18:16

when a gravitational wave detector sees

18:18

neutron stars collide, the gravitational

18:20

waves, it might be able to tell the the

18:24

the telescope where to quickly where to

18:27

move. And since such a big field of

18:29

view, even if you can't localize it very

18:31

well, this telescope might see it. So

18:33

it's going to it's going to improve

18:35

astronomy. And and I suspect what it

18:37

will discover are things we don't expect

18:39

because every time I open a new window

18:40

on the universe, you you're surprised.

18:43

and the the and the the usual suspects

18:45

like dark matter and dark energy I

18:47

expect won't be won't be changed

18:49

revolutionarily by it but it's really

18:51

exciting to have a nice new telescope

18:53

that does something very very different

18:55

with neat new technology um especially

18:59

if you like neat new new technology so

19:01

and and it and it has produced a few p

19:03

interesting pictures and if and and I

19:05

and all I for all I know there's going

19:08

to be some nerds out there in Germany

19:11

who buy themselves 400 HD

19:13

TVs, put them up on a big screen and and

19:16

and and see a picture from the from the

19:19

from the Reuben telescope someday. I

19:21

don't know. What do you think?

19:24

Um I think you've you've said almost

19:26

everything. Uh and I've I've thought

19:28

very hard about what I could possibly

19:30

add. Um so I have one thing to add,

19:33

which is that um they put out an app

19:36

which is called the Sky Viewer app that

19:39

allows you to So I don't know if that

19:41

that'll go through. So you can zoom in

19:44

in your high definition picture.

19:46

And I think they plan to,

19:50

you know, add some annotations, you

19:51

know, more details about what what's

19:53

going on in these pictures. Like this

19:55

one is very pretty. So you already

19:58

download it.

20:00

So actually I think it opens in the

20:02

browser. So like skyviewer.app. I think

20:04

that's just a website. Um Oh, I see. In

20:07

any case, so I mean you kind of said

20:10

this a little bit dismissively like it

20:11

puts out pretty pictures. Uh but you

20:14

know I think this is kind of really

20:15

important for for science communication

20:17

that you have something to show um

20:19

something that people can relate to and

20:21

and people just really like these

20:23

images. I don't see anything uh wrong

20:25

with it.

20:26

Oh it excites kids. Even if it excites

20:28

kids to study science in school, it's

20:30

great. I mean

20:31

Exactly. Exactly. So I I think it's

20:33

great they they put out something like

20:34

this. I hope they'll make a little bit

20:36

more of it like this seems to be just

20:38

you know the core of an idea where um

20:42

they're smart to come

20:44

and you know and if they did something

20:45

like that I I have always mixed feelings

20:47

but it's not that you know there's

20:49

citizen science too so if they have an

20:50

app and they've got these huge images

20:53

they can encourage people to look in the

20:54

images for things that they I mean I'm

20:56

sure their data analysis and their AI

20:59

you know mechanisms are are good but you

21:02

never know if you allow a few hundred

21:05

000 people to look at these images and

21:06

look at them. Maybe people will see fun

21:08

things that other people can't. So yeah,

21:10

I think it's it's wonderful and it does

21:13

illustrate a few things. I mean I I

21:15

space telescopes are very important and

21:17

I'm very sad that the next large space

21:20

telescope, the Roman space telescope,

21:22

which is essentially built and paid for,

21:24

may not fly because the Trump

21:25

administration has decided science is

21:27

bad. No science. No science makes the

21:30

world a better place. is apparently what

21:32

the Trump administration has decided. Um

21:34

because scientists are bad because

21:37

scientists are bad because of money

21:38

liberal therefore science is bad

21:40

therefore kill all the projects that

21:41

have already been done. But anyway,

21:43

that's a little button for me. But the

21:45

you know the next space telescope may

21:47

not fly because at least the current

21:49

administration hasn't doesn't want to

21:51

budget money for it. But it's lovely

21:53

when when you can see how much you can

21:56

do on Earth with with new telescopes and

21:58

it's and they're they're expensive. This

22:00

one was actually less expensive. I

22:02

thought it was under a billion dollars.

22:03

I think it was $800 million.

22:06

The uh the uh next large telescope uh

22:10

the I think the Mellan I think it's

22:12

called the large Mellan telescope.

22:14

Anyway, it's a it's probably more like 5

22:16

to 10 billion dollars, but uh which is a

22:19

which is a scale. This is 8.4 meters.

22:21

The next the larger telescopes are are

22:23

are tens of meters across like this, you

22:27

know, 15 to 20 meters across. and

22:30

they're incredible. And I'm still

22:32

amazed. You know, I had a telescope when

22:35

I was a kid. I still have a telescope. I

22:37

never do anything really great with it,

22:39

but it amazes me that here on Earth, you

22:41

can look through the atmosphere and see

22:43

all of that that it's all out there.

22:45

It's just just it is in so inspiring.

22:48

Anyway, yeah. So, if it does nothing

22:50

other than inspire young people to uh to

22:53

get interested in the universe, then I'm

22:55

all in favor of it. But

22:57

who knows? May maybe we'll we'll finally

23:00

discover extraterrestrial life.

23:03

Yeah. Well, you know, it's certainly

23:04

there for transient phenomena one way or

23:07

another. My my friend Jeff Marcy and his

23:10

colleagues are big on saying that the

23:12

best way to look for SETI is not radio

23:13

waves, but to look for optical

23:14

transients. Um, and you know, maybe this

23:18

maybe this will will allow us to do

23:19

that. There's certainly going to be a

23:20

lot of data, 20 terabytes a night. I

23:23

wouldn't I I wouldn't want to be the

23:25

data that the person's in charge of that

23:27

data set. It's amazing. Well, from the

23:31

from the um immediate and and um and uh

23:35

in front of your face science to the

23:37

esoteric science that the limits of

23:39

knowledge literally and metaphorically,

23:41

I'm told that you have a very

23:43

interesting paper that you read.

23:45

Yeah. Yeah. And so, so one of the

23:47

authors of the paper is also very in

23:50

your face. Um, so you you put out a

23:53

paper together with some co-authors

23:57

um that argues that a theory of

24:01

everything isn't logically possible. So

24:04

that's my brief summary

24:06

quoting some mathematical theorems and I

24:09

want to back up a little and and explain

24:12

I mean in which sense you use the phrase

24:15

theory of everything because the several

24:17

different things of this could mean. So

24:20

in the narrowest sense of the word uh

24:23

physicist talk of the theory of

24:25

everything as something that unifies all

24:29

the four known fundamental forces. So

24:31

the three forces in the standard model

24:35

electromagnetism the strong and weak

24:37

nuclear force and gravity. Um and that

24:43

in principle should explain everything

24:45

hence the name. So in practice of course

24:48

it's not going to you know allow us to

24:50

predict human behavior or something like

24:52

this because even though people are made

24:55

of particles that are

24:58

determined by those fundamental forces

25:00

and the interaction between the

25:02

particles and and everything we can't

25:04

actually calculate uh something as

25:06

complicated as that. But in in principle

25:09

it's it would be a theory of everything

25:11

we know. And of course, you know,

25:13

physicists hope that it would also

25:16

include uh dark energy and dark matter

25:19

and that might pan out not pan out.

25:22

Um so I I think that in your paper you

25:25

use the word in a somewhat more general

25:27

sense. Um which isn't just that it needs

25:30

to combine these four forces but is

25:32

actually also a final theory. um which

25:35

um I think a lot of physicists

25:38

believe uh and certainly hope um which

25:42

was maybe best captured in Steven

25:46

Weinberg's famous book dreams of a final

25:48

theory. Um there's this idea that we're

25:51

we're pretty close to the end of physics

25:54

in some sense because we the only thing

25:57

that's missing um is this unification of

26:00

all all the forces. And yeah, that

26:02

sounds very similar to what um Lord

26:05

Kelvin said like 150 years ago, which I

26:08

paraphrase. Uh we're almost done with

26:10

physics. They're just some little niggly

26:13

bits left to sort out that

26:15

decimal points,

26:16

quantum mechanics and the entire set,

26:18

right? Um so um yeah, so I don't really

26:22

believe the stuff with the final theory.

26:24

Um but u so this is why I read your

26:26

paper because it plays to my

26:27

confirmation bias. So basically um in a

26:31

nutshell I think um the the argument has

26:34

like three different points. The first

26:36

is good theorem that I think most people

26:38

have have already um heard about uh

26:41

which so we roughly speaking it says

26:43

that um any such theory if you can write

26:47

it down in innumerable axioms and so on

26:49

so that there are some

26:51

checkpoints that it needs to fulfill but

26:53

I think for you know those are actually

26:55

fulfilled for the theories that we use

26:57

in practice um then that theory will

27:01

have statements that are true but they

27:04

that you can't prove prove to be true.

27:06

So that's a little bit awkward. You

27:07

know, if if you if you want your theory

27:09

to give answers to everything because

27:11

it's a theory of everything that

27:12

actually uh you can prove uh that's not

27:15

possible. And then the second argument

27:18

is um is kind of related to this but it

27:21

builds on a on a different theorem that

27:23

says uh well for any such theory you

27:25

can't even construct uh a a function

27:29

that that would tell you what is true

27:30

and what isn't true. And then the the

27:33

third step it's uh is a uh complexity

27:36

bound. So whatever theory you have

27:38

there's a limit to the complexity of

27:42

statements that you can make roughly

27:44

speaking. Um and you you don't you can't

27:47

tell um exactly where it is. So so um

27:52

you don't even know and that's a little

27:54

bit awkward because it could be that

27:56

nature is just above that bound. So what

27:59

kind of theory of everything is that? uh

28:01

if it if it actually can't explain that

28:05

thing which is above the complexity bar.

28:08

So I think that's a very interesting

28:09

argument uh and and honestly I think

28:11

that um this is kind of an approach to

28:15

the mathematics that we use that I think

28:18

physicists should should use more often

28:20

like so so there's strictly logical

28:23

argumentation about what's even you know

28:26

theoretically possible where are the

28:28

limits of our methods. Uh that said, you

28:31

know, I I'm I'm not so sure that it's uh

28:34

in the end relevant for one thing

28:36

because I don't actually believe that

28:37

there's a final theory. I I already said

28:39

this. Um I just think like, you know, we

28:42

will find something wrong with quantum

28:45

mechanics basically and all this final

28:46

theory stuff will go out of the window.

28:49

And then there are things like um for

28:51

example in Google's theorem um I I I

28:54

always wonder like in practice how

28:57

relevant is it actually because suppose

28:59

you have this one statement that um you

29:02

know you you you can't prove to be true

29:04

what would you do as a physicist where

29:07

you you would go and see if it's true by

29:10

making a measurement

29:12

if you can make a measurement like if if

29:14

you can't measure it who cares. So um if

29:16

if you can measure it you check it and

29:19

so if it's true you add this as another

29:22

axion right so this how it works um so

29:26

you know I have to say that I think most

29:29

physicists won't be terribly impressed

29:32

by the paper but I I quite like

29:35

well I you know I have even though I'm

29:38

one of the authors I also have mixed

29:40

feelings but but I partly again it was

29:43

my confirmation bias I go back to It's a

29:45

1984 when I was old and you were a baby.

29:49

Um uh when when string theory was not

29:54

called string theory, it's called the

29:55

theory of everything by absolutely every

29:57

practitioner who was working on it. And

30:00

in fact, even if it were a theory of

30:01

everything, it would actually be a

30:02

theory of very little, as my as Frank

30:04

Wilch used to say, because you know,

30:06

quantum gravity is is incredibly

30:09

important for understanding the

30:10

beginning of the universe and the ends

30:11

of black holes, but not for

30:12

understanding how water boils or oatmeal

30:15

boils or or any of the you know, most of

30:17

the things or how how to build better

30:18

materials and many of the things that

30:20

matter people's lives. But but I did

30:23

like I I I I I

30:26

do like various aspects of this because

30:29

I'd like to hear people stop using the

30:31

term theory of everything. But the the

30:33

idea is that if you the way I think of a

30:36

theory of everything if you had it is

30:37

that you have a theory that any that can

30:40

allow you to calculate in advance

30:42

anything you could see. Calculate in

30:44

advance and predict any measurement you

30:46

could ever do. That would be a complete

30:48

theory. There's nothing that one could

30:51

ever see or do that this theory would

30:53

not allow you to predict. That's kind of

30:56

and on any scale in the universe. And

30:59

and there there are fundamental, as you

31:01

point out, mathematical arguments that

31:03

are quite profound in some cases that

31:05

basically say that's that's impossible.

31:09

And I think that's really interesting.

31:11

Uh as you say, I get your point about

31:14

Good is very is very correct. There are

31:16

things some things are true that you

31:18

can't prove to be true. It's also t it's

31:20

more explicit in Tarski's theorem.

31:22

There's three theorems girdle, tarski

31:23

and tradings but that we talk about but

31:26

they all are different aspects of

31:27

incompleteness. And then physicists

31:29

would add that as an axiom and all we're

31:31

saying is yes it would be we call that a

31:34

meta theory. So you can't

31:36

algorithmically start from a certain set

31:38

of rules and derive everything. You

31:41

basically there's some things you could

31:43

derive and then you want to add them and

31:44

there may be an infinite number of

31:45

things you have to add. Who knows? But

31:47

um and so that's interesting in a

31:51

general maybe I hate to use the word

31:52

philosophical sense but but in a general

31:55

sense for the claim limiting the claims

31:57

that that science will ever be over uh

32:00

in that sense. Now you may argue that

32:02

the direction science going in isn't

32:04

important anyway but but

32:07

uh but I like to think of as cosmic job

32:10

security that there'll never be a theory

32:12

that allows you to predict everything.

32:13

You'll have to do more experiments and

32:15

discover that you'll have to keep

32:16

looking and you know thinking alone

32:19

won't do it. they'll have to keep

32:20

looking. And that's great because

32:21

science at its best involves looking and

32:24

and discovering things about the world.

32:26

And and the thing I like about that last

32:28

part of this incompleteness theorem is

32:30

that and because it does relate to a lot

32:31

of the claims of quantum gravity and

32:33

there's so many claims and so much

32:35

hyperola as you know about string theory

32:38

and loop quantum gravity and all of the

32:39

rest. But one of the things aspects

32:41

that's relevant to black holes is

32:43

thermalization. And one of the

32:44

interesting things that I actually

32:45

hadn't I hadn't realized till we were

32:47

working on this paper and I didn't

32:49

didn't know enough about it. But the

32:50

process of thermalization has been shown

32:53

to basically be undecidable in a in a

32:55

fundamental mathematical way. When a

32:57

system will thermalize is kind of like

32:59

the same as knowing when this computer

33:01

program will shut itself off and you

33:03

can't you can't and that depends upon

33:05

the complexity that you don't know in

33:07

advance. you don't know how much

33:08

complexity you have to understand and

33:10

whether you'll that was the argument you

33:11

gave at the end and so it it does relate

33:14

in a in a to me at least in a real way

33:16

to some of the directions that people

33:18

are going in quantravity which is that

33:21

if thermalization in the neighborhood of

33:24

black hole vent horizons and all of that

33:26

is important this may actually come back

33:28

and bite you in the face that the theory

33:30

may not be able to actually actually te

33:32

tell you something you're claiming

33:34

happens that you may not actually be

33:36

able to ever really fundamentally

33:37

calculate from first principles. So it

33:39

may have a practical significance, it

33:41

may not. But you're absolutely right. It

33:43

from it's it's like everything related

33:46

to the theory of everything. When it

33:47

comes to something, it's probably

33:49

doesn't matter very much. As again, as

33:51

as Frank used to say, I don't want a

33:52

theory of everything. I want a theory of

33:54

something. And uh and and and theories

33:57

of something are particularly useful.

33:59

Theories of everything are are some are

34:01

fun for some people to talk about. And

34:03

like you, it was fun for me to come up

34:06

with to to write something and basically

34:08

argue that even if you like it, it can't

34:10

happen. Anyway, I don't know if we

34:13

illuminated anything. Any comments based

34:14

on what I said or no?

34:16

Uh, no, just a question. The paper that

34:18

you mentioned about the thermonization,

34:20

was this the recent cubit paper or

34:23

No, no, no. There's another paper about

34:25

undecidability theorems.

34:27

Interesting. Maybe maybe you can send me

34:29

a reference because I'm also

34:30

Yeah, I'll send you a reference because

34:31

it was I didn't know about this field uh

34:33

enough to to and and my colleagues did

34:35

and I and I learned about it in in and

34:37

we reference it in the in in in some

34:40

point in our paper.

34:40

Well, I've I've looked at all these

34:42

papers where they claim there's a

34:43

physical quantity that we can't compute.

34:45

uh and and it's always the same and in

34:48

all the papers that I've seen is that

34:50

some physical quantity becomes infinite

34:53

like it's an infinite number of um

34:55

particles or something like that. So, so

34:58

it's not actually a real system. So, so

35:00

far this has always been the case which

35:02

is why I want to look at this paper.

35:04

Okay. Well, well, it' be worthwhile

35:06

looking at this one together. I I have

35:08

to say I've written some papers of mine

35:10

some of which have had a great impact

35:11

which I didn't understand at the time I

35:13

wrote them and fully And uh and and this

35:16

one is one that I that is I've have had

35:19

to come to grips with a lot. I'm not

35:20

sure I even still fully understand it.

35:22

I'm not sure this one is going to have

35:23

the same kind of impact as some of the

35:25

other ones. But it was um it was fun to

35:27

learn some of these things because I

35:29

tend to ignore I mean good and these

35:32

incompleteness serums are very important

35:34

but because as you say from a practical

35:36

perspective I'm someone who likes to

35:38

just do things and it it it often seems

35:41

a little ephemeral. So I hadn't I I I

35:44

haven't thought about them in detail and

35:45

this this forced me at least to think

35:47

about them in detail a little bit. Okay.

35:49

Anyway, thank you for the advertisement

35:52

and I appreciate it.

35:53

Well, a lot of people asked me to to

35:55

discuss this. So, um yeah.

35:57

Well, I've now learned if you put theory

35:59

of everything in a paper, everyone all

36:00

the all these people in the public want

36:02

to hear about it. But um anyway, now I

36:05

will talk about something that's much

36:06

more grounded, perhaps the most grounded

36:08

calculation in elementary particle

36:11

physics. The thing that made quantum

36:14

field theory put it on the map. One of

36:16

the two calculations is something called

36:18

the G minus 2. In this case, G minus 2

36:20

of the muon. The magnetic moment of the

36:22

muon. Electric elementary particles are

36:25

charged and they behave like they're

36:27

spinning. And a spinning charge will

36:29

have a magnetic moment. Now, they're not

36:31

really spinning, but quantum mechanics

36:32

says they behave like they're spinning

36:34

and they and they have a magnetic

36:36

moment. And because they have a you know

36:37

their charge, it's which is quantized.

36:40

Um and you know their spin which is

36:41

quantized you can get a number for the

36:44

value in some in in terms of some

36:47

fundamental unit called the bore

36:48

magneton of the of the magnetic moment

36:51

of elementary particles and in and if

36:53

all things were just simple the number

36:55

would be two doesn't m in those units or

36:58

a half or depend what unit you pick. Um

37:01

but of course um the great thing about

37:04

quantum field theory is it says that

37:05

that there actually all sorts of virtual

37:07

processes going on where a muon isn't

37:10

just a muon. It's emitting a photon and

37:13

for a while it's two muons and a muon

37:14

and antimu and on small scales lots of

37:16

strange things are happening. Virtual

37:18

processes that make the vacuum of

37:20

elementary particle physics strange and

37:23

many people say well that can't be true.

37:25

But of course the beauty the real beauty

37:28

in the 19 1947 4849 was that you could

37:32

actually make prediction you could

37:34

actually calculate results in spite of

37:37

all the craziness that's going on at

37:39

small scales and make predictions of

37:41

what the quantum mechanical

37:44

uh corrections are to this number two.

37:47

And it is the best prediction in all of

37:50

science in the sense that from

37:52

fundamental principles you can make a

37:54

prediction of a number to almost 12

37:56

decimal places. And the other amazing

37:58

thing which I which I think is even more

38:00

amazing as a theorist in particular is

38:03

that experimentals can measure certain

38:05

quantities if they're really clever to

38:08

12 decimal places. And there's nowhere

38:10

else in science where a fundamental

38:12

prediction

38:13

that's that's all the way to 12 decimal

38:16

places can be compared to theory to 12

38:18

decimal places from fundamental

38:19

principles. It's it's really in my mind

38:21

one of the most beautiful

38:23

most beautiful things in physics that

38:25

you can actually make a fundamental

38:26

prediction and test it and it really

38:28

tells us that empty space is really

38:30

weird. And so the gus2 of the muon is

38:32

incredibly important because it

38:35

validated the whole computational scheme

38:38

we use to try and understand elementary

38:40

particles and fields. But what makes it

38:43

even more interesting and what's made it

38:44

more interesting for 40 years is because

38:47

the quantum corrections are sensitive to

38:50

weird processes. If there's any new

38:53

physics like super symmetry which has

38:56

new elementary particles which can be

38:58

emitted by muons and then absorbed at

39:02

very small levels giving very small

39:04

effects.

39:05

But if you can measure something to 12

39:07

decimal places maybe you can look at

39:09

those effects. In fact many people have

39:11

argued why build a big accelerator when

39:14

you can look for effects that are that

39:16

come in at the part per billion level in

39:19

a very sensitive experiment and then do

39:21

the experiment. It's not a tabletop

39:22

experiment. These are big, you know,

39:25

many meter long storage rings of muons

39:28

and but but it's but it it's still less

39:30

expensive than building a new particle

39:33

collider. And so people have argued,

39:36

hey, maybe this is a great place for new

39:37

physics. In fact, I I've forgotten this

39:40

till till till just now, but I actually

39:43

wrote a paper that's that's sort of

39:45

significant on the one of the first

39:47

calculations of the G minus 2 of the

39:49

muon and super symmetry theories.

39:50

totally forgot that. But anyway, um and

39:53

uh and so um it's it's incredibly

39:57

interesting. Now, what made it more

39:59

interesting, at least from a fundamental

40:00

perspective, is it looked like there was

40:03

a difference between the theoretical

40:04

prediction and the observations at in

40:06

the 12th or in the 10th or 11th or 12th

40:08

decimal place. And if it wasn't so

40:11

beautiful, you'd say, who cares at the

40:12

10th, 11th, 12th decimal place? How am I

40:14

going to believe something like that?

40:16

But you can. If there was a known

40:18

well-defined disagreement statistically

40:21

between the theory and the observation

40:23

of 12 decimal places, it would tell us

40:25

there's something new and super symmetry

40:27

predicted such a a difference. And for a

40:30

while it looked like there was such a

40:33

difference and people have been doing

40:34

these G minus 2 experiments colleagues

40:35

of mine back when I was at Yale their

40:37

whole careers and they're beautiful.

40:39

They really are beautiful and very

40:41

clever experiments. Basically it's it's

40:43

the idea is basically if you have a

40:44

magnetic moment and you have a magnetic

40:46

field then then a then a little magnet

40:49

will process

40:51

and and the and the frequency of its

40:53

procession will depend upon how big a

40:55

magnet it is. That's the basic simple

40:57

idea. And so they take muons and store

41:00

them and see how they process in

41:03

magnetic fields and look at the

41:04

radiation they emit more or less or the

41:07

and it's like it's like NMR. It's very

41:09

precise and allows you to do

41:11

unbelievably good experiments. And the

41:13

most recent and people say final G minus

41:16

2 experiment was just done at Fermy Lab.

41:18

I think the magnet was taken from you

41:20

need large magnets for this was taken

41:23

from Brook Haven National Laboratory and

41:25

other accelerator in the United States

41:26

to Fairmy Lab and built and and and it

41:30

stored 300 billion muons. Remember,

41:33

muons only live one second long, but if

41:36

you if you accelerate them enough, they

41:37

live a little longer. And so, it's hard

41:39

to store them. And and there are 300

41:41

billion million 300 billion of them in

41:44

this big magnetic field. and and they

41:47

finally measured the answer is and the

41:49

correction to this number too is point

41:51

and I have to say it because they work

41:53

so hard to get the number 01165920705

42:01

and that's known with an accuracy of 127

42:03

parts per billion. The prediction is

42:05

0.00116592033

42:10

with a theoretical uncertainty of 540

42:13

parts in the last three numbers

42:16

and um and and unfortunately or

42:20

fortunately it agrees the theory and the

42:22

experiment agree. Now having said that

42:25

there's one little additional

42:26

technicality which which is kind of neat

42:30

which is how do you calculate how what's

42:32

the uncertainty in the theory? How how

42:33

dare you say theory has an uncertainty?

42:36

Well, the uncertainty comes in the fact

42:38

that muons which are only measure only

42:42

only experience the weak force and the

42:44

electromagnetic force nevertheless can

42:47

emit quarks which experience the strong

42:49

force and we can't calculate with the

42:51

strong force. So we have to make

42:53

approximations

42:55

and for a long time people made

42:57

approximations based on measurements and

42:59

they kept giving the wrong answer. And

43:01

what's really fascinating is well one

43:03

way to calculate is put it on a computer

43:05

in a lattice and make space a lattice

43:08

and then let the computer do detail

43:10

calculations on a lattice. And it turns

43:12

out those lattice calculations give

43:14

answers that are different than the

43:16

other calculations and agree with the

43:17

observations. And initially that was a

43:19

big deal and people didn't believe the

43:21

lattice calculations but now more people

43:22

have done them. And now it looks like

43:24

the computers are smarter than we are in

43:26

that sense or at least they're giving an

43:28

answer that's in agreement with the

43:30

observations. And why extrapolating

43:34

results from other data from other

43:35

experiments gives the wrong answer is

43:37

not yet known. But the bottom line is at

43:39

the end of all of this of this amazing

43:42

bit of work and real solid work by

43:44

theorists and solid work by experiments,

43:47

we made the best measurement that's ever

43:48

been made and the theory agrees. And

43:50

many people are disappointed of course

43:52

because there's no evidence for super

43:54

symmetry or anything else that people

43:56

thought might come out of it. But even

43:58

though it gives a null result, I wanted

44:00

to herald it because I think it's in

44:02

some ways science at its best. Turning

44:04

it over to you.

44:06

Well, that was a very nice speech. Um,

44:09

yeah. Um, so I'm kind of super

44:12

unsurprised by this because one could

44:14

see this coming for like 10 years or

44:17

something. Um yeah uh and and I I think

44:21

there's a deeper lesson in this um which

44:23

is that you said um some people have

44:26

argued you could replace to some

44:28

external building big bigger colliders

44:30

with making high precision measurements

44:32

lower energies. Uh and this is the sort

44:35

of problem that you run into because you

44:38

you'll have to do these calculations

44:41

very very precisely. So you put the

44:44

burden on the theory

44:46

whereas if you go to higher energies uh

44:49

if there is a signal it tends to be in

44:51

your face uh in sense you know once once

44:54

you have collected enough uh data you

44:56

know you have a bump that's there you go

44:58

basically

44:59

so so it's it's it's a somewhat cleaner

45:02

signature

45:04

um but yeah I mean it's a great

45:05

achievement um so I mean I can remember

45:08

people discussing the muon anomaly since

45:11

since I've been in physics basically

45:14

and so I'm quite happy we can lay it to

45:16

rest though. I have to say that I mean

45:19

you only told like the

45:22

the good side. Um so I I think it also

45:26

has like a negative side which is that

45:28

um you know from from the people that

45:31

I've personally um known and talked to I

45:35

think no one actually believed it was

45:37

some physics beyond the standard model

45:39

stuff like every everyone maybe that's a

45:42

generational thing like um put the blame

45:45

on the theoretical calculation or maybe

45:47

it's something to do with the kind of

45:49

people that I tend to know uh in but um

45:52

the idea that is kind of a new particles

45:55

for poor or it's extra dimensions uh and

45:57

I I had a student who wrote a paper on

45:59

that so on which I'm a co-author so I'm

46:02

also guilty right

46:04

um so um that attracts much more

46:08

attention like in the headlines so when

46:11

uh you know when when a when a newspaper

46:13

writes about um the wrote about the um G

46:18

minus 2 anomaly they write something

46:20

about evidence for a fifth force or

46:22

something like that stand out model is

46:24

broken, stuff like that.

46:26

Uh and and that that attracts a lot of

46:28

attention not just uh in the general

46:30

population but also among businesses and

46:32

I think it inspires them to make up more

46:34

stuff and so it becomes this

46:36

self-running thing.

46:38

And so I think that there's this

46:40

community dynamics uh which is something

46:43

that I really don't like. So um I I'm

46:46

quite happy that we can finally put this

46:48

to rest.

46:49

Well, I don't know whether I I warn you

46:51

nothing ever gets put to rest finally.

46:52

But anyway, um but but look, I I'm

46:55

sympathetic with you there. But I look,

46:58

I'm telling you,

47:00

I'm of a generation where I attended

47:02

many meetings where certain group of

47:04

people would say this proves super

47:07

symmetry. This anomaly in the Gus 2, we

47:10

here's our calculation. Look at the

47:12

anomaly. It's it proves that super

47:13

symmetry is true. And I'd hear it over

47:15

and over again. I didn't believe it. But

47:18

uh and so it's it's so that so it has

47:20

been useful to to close certain doors.

47:24

But I'll also say you're right, but you

47:26

come from a generation of people saying,

47:27

"Oh, an alom let me invent some crap,

47:29

some nonsense crap." And and that's

47:32

that's true. But I let me play the other

47:34

side of the devil's advocate. When I did

47:37

the this was in 1985

47:40

84 85 that we did the calculation of G

47:44

minus 2 in in super symmetric theories

47:48

and I it was what I liked it was one of

47:51

I liked it because it was most most

47:53

honest and certainly difficult. It was

47:54

the most complicated calculation I'd

47:56

ever done and probably have ever done

47:58

and I did it with people I could never

48:00

have done it alone. I did it with a

48:01

colleague Niska Sakai and and others but

48:04

he's a a Japanese physicist and required

48:07

keeping so many terms that I I couldn't

48:09

even write them neatly on a piece of

48:11

paper but he he would store them but

48:14

what I loved about it was it was a

48:15

concrete theory low energy super

48:17

symmetry was a concrete theory if you

48:20

wanted it to explain data it was highly

48:23

constrained in certain ways and

48:25

therefore if you if you worked hard

48:27

enough you could make a concrete

48:29

prediction And it was for me that's the

48:32

most satisfying that was an extremely

48:34

satisfying thing was to dig a concrete

48:36

theory which was beyond the standard

48:37

model at the time and and make a

48:40

concrete prediction.

48:42

It just required a lot of work. And so

48:44

for me I think I was trying to convince

48:46

my colleagues that I could be an honest

48:48

hardworking theoretical physicist. I had

48:50

a number of colleagues like Joe

48:51

Bulchinsky and Mark Weiser at the time

48:53

at Harvard and who basically said you

48:55

got to you got to prove yourself by

48:57

doing this calculation. So but so anyway

48:59

I I think it's nice in an era where

49:02

where where science allowed you to make

49:04

concrete predictions even for new for

49:06

well motivated new physics and then

49:09

compare them to theory. The problem is

49:11

what's happened is things have become so

49:12

difficult and so the standard model is

49:14

so good that people now are of a

49:17

generation and your generation I think

49:18

that tend to say oh let me just invent

49:20

the wildest things in the world to

49:22

explain everything with no with no

49:24

constraints on parameters and every new

49:28

every new result going to be new

49:29

dimensions or this or that and yeah I

49:31

have the same kind of feeling about all

49:34

of that which is um that it's much to do

49:36

about nothing I don't know if I'm over

49:39

overstressing But so anyway, I think G

49:41

minus 2 is a is an example of maybe we

49:44

can put it this way. G minus 2 is an

49:45

example of physics at its best and maybe

49:48

physics at its worst. But uh but um it's

49:51

wonderful when good theories can be

49:53

tested with good experiments and one

49:55

hopes that's true in all areas of

49:58

science. Let let maybe we can end on a

50:01

positive note. Is that acceptable?

50:03

Yeah, let's let let's talk about the

50:05

future. Uh I I want to talk about I want

50:07

to talk about AI and um maybe more

50:10

generally um want to hear what your

50:13

senses what AI is going to do to

50:16

physics. So um in the past months there

50:19

have been several developments with

50:22

selfimproving

50:24

AIS. Uh maybe the biggest headline was

50:27

for um came from Google Google deep mind

50:31

alpha evolve. uh it's basically uh an

50:35

artificially intelligent system that um

50:39

mutates code uh and then tests the code

50:43

and improves it. uh and so in and uh so

50:48

I was quite impressed by how successful

50:51

it was at improving the code and also

50:55

that it made some actually useful

50:58

discoveries like one of the things that

51:00

they found was a better way to multiply

51:04

big matrices basically that's more

51:07

efficient than anything that was

51:08

previously known so no humans can come

51:11

up with it so far and this thing kind of

51:14

did it wi within I don't know a couple

51:16

of days or god knows I didn't look

51:18

exactly at the numbers because we can

51:20

quibble about do we do we actually count

51:22

the time that they put in to to

51:25

construct the thing or something like

51:26

that but it doesn't really matter so it

51:28

found something really new uh and and

51:30

and it's quite interesting because

51:32

matrix multiplication is one of the

51:34

operations that you need to do in a lot

51:37

of those models right so it in some

51:40

sense you know it did improve itself

51:43

um or at least other AIs. Um and and so

51:48

this is one of the steps towards what's

51:51

been called um the intelligence

51:54

explosion formerly known as the

51:55

singularity when AIs can improve

52:00

themselves. So it becomes this

52:02

self-running exponential process um of

52:05

which we don't know the end point. hence

52:08

uh the singularity.

52:10

Um so I'm not saying that that we're

52:12

anywhere close to that point. Um but

52:15

what we're seeing right now is that

52:16

people are trying to use these

52:19

evolutionary approaches to to do exactly

52:21

that. And of course that isn't a new

52:23

idea, but it's is kind of like this idea

52:25

of the neural networks, you know, also

52:27

isn't really a new idea. Uh so so in the

52:29

end, I think what was the inflection

52:31

point for making this work was just

52:33

computing power. Okay, so I'm greatly

52:35

oversimplifying and you know everyone

52:37

who works on the topic will hate me for

52:39

saying this because of course there have

52:40

been many uh you know improvements on

52:42

the code and insights of blah blah blah

52:44

blah but basically what's driving the

52:46

whole thing is computing power and that

52:49

more people can use it and if more

52:51

people can use it they can work with it

52:52

they have more more insights and so

52:56

naturally like this makes me wonder like

52:59

what's it going to do to science? Um so

53:02

one thing that we're we're already

53:04

seeing right now is that these models

53:06

are becoming really like not large

53:08

language models but some of the stuff

53:10

that Deep Mind's working on and actually

53:12

also some of the the large language

53:14

models like um 03 like GPT03

53:18

they're becoming really good at math um

53:21

and so I think some mathematicians are

53:24

actually spooked by this you know that

53:26

they see like these models have eaten so

53:29

many proofs And it's kind of a language,

53:32

right? And and but it's a very clean

53:35

language like it's not contaminated. Of

53:37

course, they're you know they're wrongs,

53:39

but you know, mostly I think maths is

53:42

fine. So So they can learn this very

53:44

well. Uh and they they're becoming

53:47

really good at um you know, covering

53:50

topics all over the place. So, and I

53:52

think it's it's quite possible that a

53:55

lot of what what you know pure

53:58

mathematicians do right now

54:01

will in the soon future be replaced by

54:05

AIS the same way that we once had human

54:09

calculators that were crunching the

54:11

numbers, you know, with logarithmic

54:13

tables and slide rules and stuff like

54:15

this. and it it doesn't exist anymore

54:17

because we now have we we now have

54:20

computers, right?

54:22

And and so I think that that's what's uh

54:24

going to happen to mathematics. I'm not

54:26

saying that all mathematicians are going

54:28

to be replaced by I think that's a

54:30

little bit more in the future.

54:31

But but what's what comes after

54:33

mathematics? I think that'll be physics.

54:36

And so that's the question like how much

54:39

how much can it do? So you know we want

54:41

to hear your opinion about that.

54:44

Well, okay. That was a great

54:45

introduction. I I looked at the paper

54:46

that you referred to me and I and I

54:48

confess there, you know, I didn't

54:50

understand it all, but it I found it

54:53

fascinating and terrifying. And I'm not

54:55

really often terrified by AI, but it

54:59

and in some sense in reflecting

55:02

it's not surprising

55:04

that um

55:06

that a code which is actually what it

55:09

is. If if you it's like fing you say

55:12

quantum computers will help us

55:14

understand quantum mechanics because

55:15

they use quantum mechanics and that's

55:17

right. And if you think of a large

55:19

language mod module or these these these

55:23

AI things, they are based on, you know,

55:25

matrix multiplication and and and and so

55:28

it's not too surprising that something

55:30

that

55:32

that that has huge data inputs for

55:35

learning would be able to prove the very

55:38

process

55:39

by which it's learning because that's

55:41

that's what it's doing. I mean, if it's

55:42

using if it's using these things and if

55:44

it's evolving

55:46

to to find to to find techniques that do

55:49

it faster, well, it's the first thing

55:51

it's going to find is the techniques

55:54

that it's using. You know, I mean, it's

55:56

not too surprising that the first area

55:58

that it kind of evolves in to improve is

56:00

computations

56:02

uh of the type that are central to its

56:05

existence. But I it is it is it is uh

56:10

fascinating me because of course if it

56:13

improves code and and what's really nice

56:15

is then you use empirical evidence you

56:17

run the code and see if it does a better

56:18

job. So it's not some sort of internal

56:21

calculation. Then you're then you're

56:22

sort of doing science that it's doing

56:24

its own experiments

56:26

and and and

56:28

self programming improving

56:30

AI for me is is was the future that I've

56:34

always

56:35

uh I've always said once you have a

56:37

self-improving

56:39

AI self-programmable improving AI then I

56:43

fully expect it to develop much faster

56:45

than biological systems because there's

56:47

no constraints on it that way. And this

56:49

is this is an example of it. And and

56:52

you're absolutely right. the fact that

56:53

it

56:55

it found a better method if you wish for

56:58

matrix multiplication or or looking for

57:01

values of matrices or whatever um is

57:04

interesting and as I point out what

57:06

makes it more interesting is just the

57:08

fact that it it will improve your

57:10

ability to do this because if you could

57:12

find a more efficient mechanism the

57:14

whole thing about LLMs and all this is

57:16

they require huge computing resources

57:19

that's why you know I don't know whether

57:22

it's uh um Amazon or whatever or or

57:26

Google, they want to have their own

57:28

nuclear reactors for power because

57:30

because they need so much power to the

57:32

do these damn things. But if you can

57:34

improve as they said I think I think

57:36

they improve some algorithm and made it

57:38

25% more efficient I think is what it

57:41

would say. I think that's the number

57:42

which turns but it what's interesting is

57:45

it turns into ultimately requiring 1%

57:48

less energy

57:50

I think was if I read the article right

57:53

and that may sound trivial but if you're

57:55

using a hell of a lot of energy 1% less

57:57

energy means or 1% fewer number of

58:00

computers that can actually be real

58:02

significant dollars and it makes and so

58:05

small small changes in efficiency can be

58:08

huge monetarily and that could mean that

58:10

these systems if they become more

58:12

efficient or more accessible because I

58:14

think one of the other areas that you

58:16

know I'm not as worried about

58:17

singularities as people are um

58:20

you know these are these are good for

58:22

doing certain things as you point out

58:24

matrix multiplication and proving

58:26

mathematical theorems um but they're not

58:30

good at other things. So they're really

58:31

good at certain things. They're not

58:33

they're not general intelligences that

58:35

are good at everything. But one thing

58:37

but one of the other limitations on them

58:39

is they're not tabletop.

58:41

You need incredible computing resources

58:44

to do this. And it's not the kind of

58:47

thing that can be done cheaply or

58:49

mass-produced and and therefore that's

58:52

good in one sense and bad in another.

58:54

It's bad because the only companies that

58:57

can do it are the ones that have rich

58:58

enough like Google or whatever. And if

59:00

they're the only ones who have smart

59:03

enough LLMs, then they have a monopoly

59:06

on producing money. And one worries

59:08

about what's going to happen there if AI

59:10

and I think it's quite likely that

59:12

that's exactly what's going to happen.

59:13

That AI is in the province of the

59:15

richest companies and those richest

59:17

companies are not are going to put a lot

59:19

of people out of work and make a lot of

59:20

money and that money won't be

59:21

distributed among society. And that's

59:23

that's going to be a huge problem. But

59:25

having aside from those societal things,

59:27

the fact that the self-improving

59:28

programs do are working so well is

59:31

really impressive and a little bit

59:33

scary. And um and I do and I was going

59:36

to ask you it I think the alpha evolve

59:40

group is part of the group that was

59:43

using these techniques in chemistry.

59:45

Were they not part of the group that

59:46

used these techniques in chemistry that

59:48

caused the people in in deep mind to win

59:50

the Nobel Prize in chemistry? I looking

59:52

for new I think that they I think they

59:55

were the ones who were looking for new

59:56

configurations of of large scale

59:58

molecules and new and new uh chemical

60:01

techniques to find certain things.

60:03

Anyway, I think it's the same the same

60:05

the same group within deep mind but I

60:07

could be wrong.

60:08

It's possible. I didn't look exactly at

60:11

the at the names of the people who were

60:13

involved but but they had a they they

60:15

have a lot of alpha things like they

60:18

have alpha proof, they have alpha

60:20

evolve. um uh you know alpha fold or

60:24

something with the proteins and there

60:25

were were a couple of other alphas. So

60:27

it's it's probably if not exactly the

60:31

same group than like uh you know a lot

60:34

of overlap. Yeah, there's probably a lot

60:36

of but I I think the point that you made

60:38

and the point that's inherent here is

60:41

quant both quantum computing and AI in

60:45

my mind will be

60:47

the most immediate benefits will be for

60:49

detailed scientific calculations and and

60:52

and and and that's what's happening and

60:54

it you know in terms of the implications

60:56

for society as a whole I think a lot of

60:58

people it's science fiction a lot of

61:00

that but but for improving the ability

61:03

to do calculations and and and

61:05

predictions and that that's a good thing

61:07

in general, I think. So, so um that's

61:10

why I'm not as afraid of AI as as some

61:13

people because I think it'll help us. I

61:15

I I hope in the long run it'll help us

61:17

more than hurt us except for those

61:18

socopolitical things I talked about in

61:20

the end where certain companies

61:22

basically become

61:24

so ultimately infinitely rich that that

61:26

they don't know what to do with

61:28

anything. Yeah. So I I totally agree uh

61:30

on the economic problem, but I want to

61:33

come back to your lack of worry about

61:35

what's going to happen to physics. Maybe

61:37

that's because you're not a student at

61:38

the moment because think about your your

61:40

calculation with the with this super

61:43

symmetric contributions to the the mus

61:46

2.

61:46

I I think it's totally totally realistic

61:50

that in like two three years or maybe

61:52

even sooner that calculation can be done

61:55

by an AI. So you you can already be

61:58

done. I bet I bet if I bet I bet it

62:01

could be done much better by an AI and

62:03

and even maybe you don't even need an

62:04

AI. You just needed a faster computer.

62:06

But yeah, you're right. That is a

62:08

problem. Except let me say why I'm not

62:10

worried there.

62:13

I'm not worried there. Because I believe

62:15

that science including physics is

62:17

empirical. And so since I think that

62:20

what drives physics is not theorists

62:22

like you and me for the most part, it's

62:25

experiments.

62:27

that as long as we keep having building

62:29

new machines that give us new windows on

62:31

the universe, then calculations

62:34

calculations aren't all of science. It's

62:36

looking out and being surprised. And so,

62:38

um, since you can't train a AI on things

62:43

we haven't yet seen,

62:45

I I'm I have I have hope for science

62:48

because as long as we keep looking,

62:50

we'll discover things we haven't yet

62:52

seen. And that means um that um that AI

62:56

and theorists are not going to take you

62:58

know that that means cosmic job

63:00

security. What do you think of that?

63:03

Yeah. Uh no I agree with this for for

63:05

the time being. Um what you've just

63:08

you've just discarded all theoretical

63:10

physicists.

63:12

Well in a sense I have but I I think um

63:16

yeah okay. Uh and that's okay. I mean I

63:19

don't have a problem in the world if if

63:21

in if if in 10 years the best

63:22

theoretical physicists in the world are

63:24

computers. I mean from the point of view

63:27

of of knowledge that's a good thing you

63:30

know and and I don't think it'll be 10

63:32

years by the way. So I think I think

63:34

it's still worth doing your PhD. But um

63:37

but but you know again my qu I I

63:41

remember having this discussion with a

63:42

mutual friend of ours again Frank um a

63:44

long time ago and and the question I and

63:47

it'll be fascinating because the

63:49

question will then be what physics

63:51

questions are of interest to this

63:53

computer?

63:54

What can you learn from it? What you

63:57

know what what will will its interest be

63:59

the same as as ours? And what can I

64:01

learn from it? And if I'm interested in

64:03

learning about the universe and I have a

64:05

better colleague that's a computer,

64:08

well, okay, you know, any I mean the

64:12

world is going to change and that's

64:13

okay. Technology changes the world. It's

64:15

doesn't always make the world worse.

64:17

That's my point. You know, having a a a

64:21

phone has changed my life. Having a

64:23

smartphone has changed my life. In many

64:24

ways, it make it worse, but in a hell of

64:26

a lot of ways that make it better. And

64:28

so um you know to to to um to uh

64:34

you know I guess to say the future's

64:36

always dystopic because of the new

64:38

technology is not always clear.

64:41

Nevertheless, I think the future's

64:42

miserable. So I guess it doesn't matter

64:46

in the long term. In the long term I

64:48

most of my science has been to say in

64:50

the very long term the future is

64:51

miserable. So enjoy it while you can.

64:54

Now speaking of enjoy it while you can.

64:56

The last topic I always like, you know,

64:58

I like thinking about the origin of

65:00

life, but I decided not to do any

65:01

biology. I want to do physicsish kind of

65:03

stuff in this, but it's still a

65:05

fascinating result. You know, I've said

65:07

over and over again that astrobiology is

65:09

the most hyped area of science. It's not

65:11

most of it isn't even science. It's just

65:14

pure speculation about things we know

65:16

nothing about. It's fascinating to think

65:18

about and talk about, but these people

65:20

who claim to talk about it with

65:22

authority are are are usually bogus.

65:25

What we need is data and experiment and

65:26

there's so much we don't understand. And

65:28

what I liked about this little result

65:30

which otherwise wouldn't have gotten a

65:32

lot of hype is is a article entitled how

65:35

organic molecules survive in space. And

65:38

it's important because I have little

65:41

doubt that in the origin of life the

65:44

basic building blocks came to earth from

65:47

space.

65:49

um and and not not like you know I don't

65:51

I'm not not talking about panspermia

65:53

where you know cells and living beings

65:55

came from elsewhere maybe that's true

65:57

but but the organic materials and in

66:00

particular these organic materials

66:02

called polyyclic aromatic hydrocarbons

66:04

which are ubiquitous at the basis of

66:07

ultimately DNA and and life and and and

66:10

and what's interesting is these

66:13

materials exist in interstellar space

66:14

and molecular clouds are produced in

66:16

stars and then emitted in supernova

66:18

explosions and but the point is what

66:21

they're not supposed to exist because a

66:24

supernova explosion and the subsequent

66:26

stuff that goes out is a pretty drastic

66:30

event with lots of ultraviolet radiation

66:32

and lots of molecules colliding and it's

66:35

not a nice place for simple molecules to

66:37

survive. They get torn apart. They get

66:39

they get banged into and they vibrate

66:41

and and so initial calculations said

66:43

these small

66:45

uh polyyclic aromatic hydroarbons P aes

66:49

like something called indine which I

66:51

think is is something like H A what is

66:55

you know it's C C9 AH C98 H8 there's

67:00

just hydrogen it's a great place to find

67:02

hydrogen carb nine carbons eight

67:04

hydrogens these kind of things if

67:07

they're small then collision will break

67:09

them apart. If they're large, it turns

67:11

out that they're so large that the

67:13

vibrations are so complicated that they

67:15

won't break them apart. But these small

67:17

ones are observed and the James Web

67:18

Space Telescope observed them. And and

67:22

that may be vitally important for the

67:23

origin of life because if they didn't if

67:26

they weren't didn't survive longer than

67:28

we expect, then maybe the conditions on

67:30

Earth wouldn't have been uh uh uh good

67:33

for life to form. And what's kind of

67:34

neat, it's a simple result and a simple

67:36

experiment. Yes, they're observed at a

67:38

higher abundance. And people actually

67:40

did an experiment on Earth with a with a

67:43

in in a in in Switzerland, I think it

67:45

is, um or Sweden, one of those two

67:47

places, Sweden, Stockholm, with a

67:49

storage ring that would would actually

67:51

be able to take these things and

67:53

recreate the conditions of molecular

67:55

clouds and try and find out when they're

67:57

when you shine ultraviolet light at them

67:59

and when they bang together why they

68:01

survive. and and they survive because of

68:04

of a process um called recurrent

68:07

fluoresence which is kind of neat to me

68:09

for as a physicist. It basically says

68:11

you have this molecule vibrating and if

68:14

it vibrates enough it can actually

68:16

translate that vibrational energy which

68:17

would otherwise break it apart into

68:20

exciting some of its eternal electric

68:23

which then relax by emitting a photon.

68:26

So it can get rid of the energy that

68:27

would break it apart by turning it into

68:30

a kind of energy that you can emit it at

68:31

the speed of light and get away. And the

68:34

new calculations suggest it's possible.

68:36

And then when they actually did the

68:38

experiment, they discovered that indeed

68:40

these these this energy that would

68:42

otherwise break it apart relaxes five

68:44

times faster than you'd imagine and the

68:46

thing could survive. So it's a little

68:47

teeny result but physics and science

68:50

grows on baby steps and that little

68:53

teeny result may in may result in the

68:57

reason why you and I are here which I

68:59

find it fun. I it's not some grand

69:01

theory of everything. It's a little baby

69:02

result but maybe that little baby result

69:05

which happens by an obscure chemical or

69:07

physical processes uh called recurrent

69:10

fluoresence which I'd never heard of

69:12

before. Maybe that little baby result

69:14

will result in you and me. And I think

69:16

that's a kind of a beauty of science. So

69:18

I thought I'd end with that one.

69:21

Yeah. No, I find that super interesting.

69:24

Um I I like these studies because uh I I

69:27

I keep thinking if we figure out how

69:30

life on our planet starts, that that

69:32

will tell us something about the way and

69:36

possibility

69:38

of life to start on other planets as

69:40

well. Um, and I certainly hope that at

69:44

some point we'll find life on other

69:46

planets. And I don't mean microbial

69:48

lives. I want something that can walk

69:50

around.

69:52

Well, it'll be qu it'll be an AI. But

69:54

anyway, um, but in the long run, maybe

69:57

it will be, but yeah, of course, we all

69:59

want that. But but I think it's

70:02

important is to get, and this I want to

70:04

stress over and over again, is to get

70:06

there. Don't listen to people who say,

70:08

"Oh, I have evidence for life on Venus,

70:11

which turns out to be garbage." It's

70:13

these little teeny experiments which

70:15

tell us more about the fundamental

70:17

science of how life may have evolved on

70:18

Earth that in the end, in my mind, will

70:21

help us much more as scientists know

70:23

where to look for life elsewhere in the

70:24

universe than people making grand claims

70:26

about this or that. And so I it's real

70:29

solid science and and and that's

70:31

science. Not much of what not much of

70:33

what you read about in astrobiology is

70:35

in my mind science. I'll say it again.

70:38

I love talking to you, Sabina. It's um

70:40

and I and I love listening to you.

70:42

Obviously, I love talking at you, but I

70:44

also love listening to you and it's

70:46

always illuminating. And I I this was

70:48

actually I think this went much better

70:50

than I thought it would. So, thank you

70:51

very much. I hope you had fun.

70:53

Yeah. No, it was great.

70:57

[Music]

71:04

Hi, it's Lawrence again. As the Origins

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Interactive Summary

Ask follow-up questions or revisit key timestamps.

This podcast episode features a discussion between Lawrence and Sabina Hosenfelder on various scientific topics. They begin by discussing the concept of a hydrogen economy, with Sabina expressing skepticism about its current implementation in Germany due to energy inefficiency and potential material degradation issues. They then delve into the possibility of naturally occurring 'white hydrogen' reservoirs and the challenges and potential of this resource. The conversation shifts to astronomy with the inauguration of the Vera Rubin telescope in Chile, highlighting its capabilities for scanning the southern sky and its potential to discover asteroids and aid in understanding dark matter and dark energy. The discussion then moves to theoretical physics, specifically a paper arguing that a

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