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>> Iran Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Ham

has been killed in today's joint attack

by the US and Israel.

>> Our objective is to defend the American

people by eliminating eminent threats

from the Iranian regime.

>> What the United States is doing is an

act of aggression. What we are doing is

the act of self-defense.

Targets in Iran, Israel, and elsewhere

in the Middle East are under attack in

an unprecedented escalation in the

conflict between the US and Iran. It

>> would be wonderful if they negotiate

uh really in good conscience, good faith

and conscience, but they they are not

getting there.

>> The combat operations come after weeks

of negotiations between the US and Iran

over what remains of its nuclear

program.

>> This was not an imminent nuclear threat.

This is a military action over regime

change, not over the nuclear program.

>> Iranian state TV has reported that at

least 200 people were killed in the

strikes. The country responded with

missile attacks on Israel and strikes

aimed at US assets in the region where

at least three US service members have

been killed. Iran says it sees no red

lines as it continues to respond with

counter strikes.

I'm David Gura and this is the big take

from Bloomberg News. Today on the show,

Bloomberg's Jeff Mason and Jamanna

Bursti join me to discuss what we know

about the timing and goals of this

weekend's strikes and the risks of a

widening regional conflict.

Bloomberg White House correspondent Jeff

Mason and Jim Bureti in Dubai have been

here with me all weekend long at

Bloomberg along with correspondents

across the globe following this story.

Jeff, we just now heard the tape from

President Trump announcing this

operation. He did it in a post on truth

social which is an unprecedented move by

a sitting US president. What has the

president said Jeff about why they did

this now? Why they undertook this at

this moment?

>> Well the president is pitching the

operation as having been in response to

an imminent threat and that is something

that no doubt people are going to

question and look into. But that is the

rationale that he used. uh his people

also his his uh top advisers um told him

that the negotiations that were going on

in Geneva with Iran about its nuclear

pro program essentially came to a point

where the United States concluded that

Iran was not interested in um talking

about its ballistic missile program and

was still interested in in pursuing a

nuclear weapon. Jeeoff, what does the US

want? Is that clear? Are they are they

using a playbook that they deployed in

in Venezuela just a couple months ago?

>> Well, it seems very clear that regime

change is something that they wanted uh

because the president very directly

referred to that in his statement when

he encouraged people in Iran essentially

to rise up and take this opportunity to

take over their government. But they

haven't they being the United States in

this case have not laid out how they

expect that to happen. And of course

there's some comparisons to the Iraq war

and and this operation. But where those

comparisons don't continue at least so

far is there are not US ground troops in

Iran. And so the president may have less

ability to influence that despite the

fact that strikes are continuing.

>> Jamanna, you are witnessing the the

escalation of this firsthand. You're

based in in Dubai and I'm curious what

things look like there in the wake of

these strikes that we've seen. Well,

what you need to understand is that uh a

a a substantial volley of missiles and

drones have been directed at all of

these Gulf states. And here I'm talking

about the UAE, Bahin, Qatar, Kuwait,

even Oman who were obviously playing a

key mediated mediation role in those

Geneva discussions. So that was also

quite a surprising development. Uh and

while most of the missiles and drones

have been intercepted, there are bits of

debris that actually did cause a

significant amount of struct of

infrastructure damage. These are

financial centers in the Middle East

that have prided themselves on political

stability and geoeconomic stability in

the context of a broader region that

tends to be uh quite uh hot and cold, I

would say. And so the reaction has been

um pretty notable in that it seems as

though many of these Gulf states are

losing their patience with Iran. So we

just had some comments from a key

adviser to the UAE president MBZ warning

Iran to return to their senses and to

deal with their neighbors in a

respectful fashion. um because otherwise

and this is a quote it confirms the

narrative that Iran is the biggest

source of danger in the region. At the

same time, you know, Iran has stopped

one step short of going all the way of

directly targeting um you know,

residential buildings or civilian

infrastructure or oil infrastructure,

but you know, who's to say that this

isn't going to escalate further? Jeeoff,

I want to pull back a bit and there was

this meeting yesterday of the UN

Security Council uh which was called for

by the Iranians and Mike Waltz, the US

representative to the UN was there

making the case, the US case for for

doing this. We've seen responses from

other world leaders, European allies are

holding an emergency meeting tomorrow. I

was just talking with Senator Mark

Warner of Virginia who sits on the

intelligence committee. He talked about

the prospects of this being really a

USIsraeli mission here, not enjoying

wide support of of allies. How do you

think about the the way that the

international community has responded to

what's happened here? Well, I think

number one that it's not something that

President Trump is going to be too

concerned about and that's in large part

because he during this second term and

to some extent during his first term as

well has upended the international order

with his own uh will and with his with

his actions be it from on the economy

using tariffs or the these strikes now

in Iran and and and what was done in

Venezuela. That said, you know, the

international community and and other

countries and allies or enemies for that

matter of the United States um have a

right to voice their opinion and the

United Nations is a place to do that.

Whether or not that actually has an

impact though, I we'll see.

After the break, the risk to the

straight of Hormuz and to the oil market

and with the US military buildup where

this could go from here.

Jim, in the statements that we got from

the US president, from President Trump,

from the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin

Netanyahu, there was this intreaty to

Iranians to overthrow their government,

to put down their weapons and to uh seek

a change of of government in Iran. What

risks does that introduce the call for

that happening in the wake of an attack

that was undertaken from the air, not on

the ground?

>> Well, you have to think also that one of

the reasons that Iran became such a

focal point to the Trump administration

was because of those demonstrations in

the beginning of the year that was the

catalyst at least in 2026 obviously with

the background of uh Iran's uh

multi-deade buildup of nuclear

capabilities. Uh but if you recall back

in January, President Trump posted that

help is going to be on the way for the

the protesters and the demonstrators who

were taking to the streets. And of

course, we know that they were brutally

put down by the Iranian regime. And over

time, those demonstrations started to

peter out. And so here we are, you fast

forward about a month later and the US

have now got involved militarily

alongside Israel. And it was pretty

clear from that original video post that

President Trump put up that his

expectation is that the Iranian people

should also use this as an opportunity

to rise up. But of course that comes

with many challenges. The major risk is

that this could strengthen the

hardliners hands. They could go down

even more aggressively on the

demonstrators, on the protesters. There

could also be uh this push to rally

around the flag as well and and unite

the Iranian people about um against

these external threats that are coming

through. Uh but then also there's a real

risk of broader retaliation and um right

now I think the Iranian regime sees this

as a very fight for their existence and

so they're not going to hold back at

retaliating either against their own

people or against neighboring countries

which is what we've seen in the last 48

hours.

>> Jeeoff what do we know of what the

president is watching for here? As you

said his rationale here has been

changing somewhat ambiguous. What is he

looking for in the in the days to come?

>> Well, certainly one of their primary

objectives is to prevent Iran from being

able to develop a nuclear weapon and

that's another thing that he talked

about in his video statement. So, uh the

military campaign will no doubt be

focused on on that and on the resources

and u infrastructure that is available

in in Iran that could potentially be

used for that and and and weapons

programs, etc. Obviously, we know that

they targeted Iranian leadership. Um,

and no doubt he'll be watching how Iran

responds. We we know as we were just

discussing that the retaliation is

happening. Does that change any military

calculations for President Trump, the

United States, how do they respond to

that? I imagine they're watching all of

those things.

>> Jam, let me ask you about the the oil

market. What this means for for that?

The straight of Hormu is a key part of

this conflict, a choke point where

nearly 20% of the world's oil is

transported. What is this likely to mean

for oil prices in the days to come?

>> Well, even in the run-up to this, oil

prices had been lifted by a certain

amount of what analysts call

geopolitical premium because there was

an expectation that a strike could

happen at some point. So, we were

already up almost around 20%. Uh we'll

see where the market opens up. Uh but to

your point, the straight of hormones is

a key passageway for Seaborn Oil. And as

of now, if you look at the traffic over

the weekends, according to Kepler, uh

they're they have their data analytics,

it suggests that the uh the flow of

tankers is down around by 75 to 80%. So

essentially what's happening is tankers

and and vessels are avoiding going

through the straits. So a significant

drop in overall activity. At the same

time, you know, one thing that you need

to think about is the oil that passes

through that straight, most of it ends

up going to Asia. So, this is oil that's

coming through from the Gulf countries

from Iran, but also other countries as

well, Saudi Arabia, other GCC nations.

The main buyer there is going to be

China. And so, if that oil isn't able to

pass through the straits, then obviously

the oil has to come from somewhere else.

Jim, I understand that OPEC plus that

that group of nations that produce oil

weighing an increase in a in production

as a result of this.

>> Yeah, that's true. So, uh they actually

had their regular meeting today and uh

on the back of that they announced an

increase of production of more than

200,000 barrels a day. Uh that was

probably not going to happen in the

absence of the weekend's events because

the last couple of months they've just

paused with their production output. um

in Q4 of last year, they were averaging

around 137,000

extra barrels a day put back to the

market, but in light of recent events

and in light of perhaps a tightening of

the market, they've opted to go with

this extra supply increase. Uh which

also signals uh that at least you know a

couple of countries within OPC plus

Saudi Arabia and UAE who've been pushing

anyway to increase uh OPEC share the

global global share of oil. um are using

this as an opportunity to get more of

their oil back on the market.

>> Jeeoff, I want to end with what might be

an offramp for the president here. In in

the run-up to this, there was a school

of thought that because this might push

up oil prices, maybe the president would

avoid doing this, that he is under

pressure to talk more about cost of

living and affordability, and if gas

prices were to rise, that would be a

challenge to him and his party going

into the midterm elections. How is he

thinking about that? And how much of a

forcing mechanism do you think that's

likely to be here as he tries to game

out a path forward? Well, number one, he

can't go back. So, he's done it now, and

there's no way of erasing that. And the

impact that it's going to have on the

economy and on oil prices is still TBD.

I think that'll be very interesting to

watch. Certainly, you're right to say

that the political risk here for him in

terms of the midterms is it potentially

robs him of one of his favorite talking

points, which is that he likes to take

credit for low gasoline prices. and

gasoline prices are absolutely something

that voters watch uh because it's a part

of their daily lives and when consumers

see their prices going up be it at the

grocery stores or be it at the pump they

remember that at the polls and is that

an offramp I mean does it impact whether

these strikes continue I I think the

answer to that is no at this point

because the United States is all in

>> and Jamanna what are the expectations in

the region for for where this goes from

here

>> I think it's very difficult for anyone

to have really good foresight on how

this is going to play out. Uh the hope I

think from the US's side is that the

ongoing attacks will either lead the

Iranian regime to fully collapse on

itself or eventually uh for it to

capitulate and the capitulation will

only come if they have been uh

decapitated at a senior level in terms

of top echelon being taken out and a

military level in terms of their actual

ballistic missile arsenal. their

launchers being so severely damaged that

they can't continue lobbying all of

these missiles and drones into uh the

region into GCC countries and into

Israel. The prime minister, Israeli

Prime Minister Netanyahu was just

speaking as well and saying that they

also expect to continue with these

attacks over the next coming days. And

if anything, I will say from the Gulf

States perspective, the fact that

they've been drawn into this and the

fact that it has been so destabilizing

for their own economies has probably

hardened their own resolve. And for a

while, they had been seeking to have not

necessarily the strongest relations with

Iran, but at least have um operational

diplomatic relationships. This could be

a huge gamecher for the region. And one

just last development that I would bring

up as well is a phone call took place

yesterday on Saturday between the Saudi

Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman and the

UAE president MBZ. The two leaders have

not spoken in a couple of months over

disagreements uh around the for the

forward path of Yemen. What this clearly

shows you is that the whole region and

the Gulf States are uniting at this

point in time to bring down the

temperature, to deescalate, and to

ensure that things really don't get out

of control.

>> This is the big take from Bloomberg

News. I'm David Gura. This is a

developing story. We're live blogging at

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