Gonna talk about the polling, and the social issues. But just tee this up for us.

Let's start with how expensive that primary was and what that portends for this general election

campaign.

Well, this general election campaign expect to be well over a $100,000,000. I wanna take you

back to 2018 when Beto O'Rourke and Ted Cruz, between the two of them, that was

about a $120,000,000. That was 2018. I expect this race to be more expensive when it

is all said and done. The Republicans already spent a lot of money going after each

other in the primary, so now they have to really get ready for a general election,

whereas James Talarico has just had plenty of time to fundraise. He's raised $3,000,000, his campaign

says, since the primary, results alone. So expect this to be a lot of money.

David, I wanna ask about these kind of dueling narratives since we've got dueling bureau chiefs.

Obviously, Ken packed Ken Paxton has quite the history. Right? He's got ethics concerns. He's got

personal life is a bit messy. Republican voters in the primary seem to not be bothered

by that. I'm wondering as you go into the general if that's gonna be a bigger

concern. And then I'm also highly amused at the the swipes. Some Republican operatives have been

taking at Talarico this week, including accusing him of being a vegan. He is not for

the record. And accusing him of having a secret vegan girlfriend. What is going on here,

and what are voters really gonna care about?

Well, I mean, that remains to be seen. But, know, it's important to remember that, attorney

general Ken Paxton has won, several, statewide races statewide general elections in Texas, you know, with

a lot of the baggage that he's bringing into this general election already known to the

voters. So one of the challenges for Democrats here is gonna be, you know, making those,

issues, you know, salient again. And it's, you know, this argument that, you know, Ken Paxson

is unfit for the job and that he has this, you know, messy personal life and

history of corruption allegations. That's something that John Cornyn tried in the in the primary, and

it really didn't work at all with Republican voters. And, you know, it may not work

here with general election voters either, but that is the tactic that, you know, James Salerico

is focused on so far. And he believes that, you know, Ken Paxson hasn't run a

general election since 2022. Some of these accusations are, if not new, at least newly adjudicated.

You know, his impeachment in 2023 happened, you know, in the interim, so he may be

a little bit more vulnerable than in the past. On the other side, what Ken Pax

is trying to do is really make James Talarico seem, you know, untexan or sort of

other to the voters here. One And of the ways he's doing that is, you know,

by using the the vegan word. And James is not a vegan, but it does you

know, it it sort of resonates on some level with the idea among Republican voters anyway

that that this candidate is outside of the mainstream of what a a Texan is. And

know, it's a bit ironic because, you know, James Talarico was a multigenerational Texan, whereas Ken

Paxton moved here from elsewhere. And so, you know, both of them, of course, are Texans

now, but this question of what does it mean to be a Texan is at the

center of this race.

Julie, pick up on that. I mean, I'm I'm curious how much this is sticking with

with the general electorate. Is this something that could be solved if James Telerico went to,

like, Lockhart tomorrow and went to Smitty's and Blacks and Cruises and got a

few excited to know those names.

Didn't use cutlery, used white bread to eat the barbecue. I mean, is this something that's

likely to stick as we move to November, or is it something he can dismiss or

get out of voters' minds pretty quickly here, do you think?

Well, I I think this is something you're going to see until November. I mean, you

talk about going to a barbecue joint and doing that kind of thing. He will have

those opportunities to do it. The question really is, is this going to all be personal

attacks and who's more Texan and who's done this or who's done that, or do they

get down to the issues of affordability and the border? So, certainly, there's time as my

dueling bureau chief knows. It's a long time in politics until that general election, But I

expect these themes to come up because they were so prevalent during the primary.

Julie, is there enough barbecue to be eaten, though? When you look at the numbers, this

is not a place that elects Democrats even at a time when there are a lot

of folks, based on polling that are unhappy with the way the country is being run

with the Republican majority. It may not matter at the end of the day. And to

David's points, the the kryptonite of Ken Paxton's, you know, kinda ethics problems, it's old. Voters

either know it or don't at this point. Are the numbers there no matter how well

Talarico does, do you think, to actually pull out a victory? Because right now, as as

we've talked about, Paxton is pulling slightly ahead.

Yeah. I mean, David said it perfectly. A lot is already known about Ken Paxton. John

Cornyn really tried to get that out more, but this has been known for a long

time, and he continues to get reelected. So you have to keep that in mind. Texas

has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994. So James Taylor Rico is really

going to have to appeal to moderates and get more people registered to vote. That is

something that Beto O'Rourke really tried to do, but only came within three.

David, I think I speak for all of us. We'd love to see these two men

on stage hashing it out, making their platforms known, trading barbs with one another. What what

is the likelihood of that happening between now, May, and November?

I would say it's pretty close to zero that that scenario plays out. Ken Paxton hasn't,

you know, done an debate in a primary or general election for many, many cycles. I

think back to 2014 was the last time he was in some kind of of on

stage debate. And part of the reason why is that he never has had to do

that. I mean, he's always been in a kind of pull position in his races. And

here as well, I think if we see a debate, it'll be because Republicans are quite

worried that they're not getting their message across and that James Talarico is appealing across across

party lines in the way that Julie is suggesting. And and so we we at this

point, you know, I can't imagine a scenario where he does agree to a debate, but

if we see one, I think it's a it's a signal that Democrats are closer, than

Republicans want them to be.

Julia, quickly before I let you go, what happens to the Cornyn voters? I mean, we've

got a poll that says most of them said, they would now choose Paxton 23% undecided.

Do you think Talarico can get enough of them?

That's what Democrats have been trying to do here for years. I think a lot of

this depends on, again, how much is on personal issues and how much really does get

down to the issues that matter to voters. It is a steep road for any democrat.

As David said, they're certainly going to be trying, but it's going to take a serious

amount of effort, and you're gonna have to really work to pull those voters over. Many

of them, like you pointed out, said they will go ahead and vote for Ken Paxton

when they were planning on voting

for

John Cornyn.