So, there's a theory that I want to

share with you about what actually

happened when Trump went to China and

brought with him 18 CEOs: Elon Musk, Tim

Cook, Jensen Huang, Larry Fink from

BlackRock. The most powerful business

leadership ever put together for a

foreign trip in American history.

The whole world is watching our meeting.

Currently, transformation not seen in a

century is accelerating across the

globe, and the international situation

is fluid and turbulent. The world has

come to a new crossroads. Can we, in the

interest of the well-being of our two

peoples and the future of humanity,

build a brighter future together for our

bilateral relations?

These are the questions vital to

history, to the world, and to the

people.

Now, the theory says that what this was

all for was a negotiation for a new

monetary order, probably the most

significant one in our lifetime. The

post-World War II order, imposed largely

by the US, is breaking down. Would you

say China has a substantial say, if not

dictating, the next world order?

Yes, of course.

And this theory goes back 40 years ago

to a deal that most people have probably

never even heard of,

but what it did was it restructured the

whole global economy. And that deal made

one country super rich,

and it destroyed another one for 30

years.

That deal was called the Plaza Accord.

What is that?

In 1985, the United States had a couple

problems. It had a huge trade deficit.

It had a dollar that was too strong, and

American manufacturers couldn't compete

globally, which kind of sounds exactly

like today.

So, the Reagan administration called in

a secret meeting at the Plaza Hotel in

New York City.

They brought in France, West Germany,

Japan, and the UK.

And behind closed doors, they made a

deal.

The deal was other countries agreed to

manipulate the currency markets to

weaken the US dollar, specifically

against the Japanese yen.

Now, why would the US want to do that?

Well, because what happened then was the

yen doubled in value almost overnight.

Japanese exports became really expensive

and American goods became cheap by

comparison. So, the trade deficit got

smaller and America became more

competitive in manufacturing.

Now, in exchange, Japan got something as

well.

Japanese companies were allowed to

invest heavily into the United States.

So, companies like Toyota, Honda, Nissan

started to build factories here in

America.

Japanese money flooded into US real

estate, US treasuries, and US

businesses.

And for a little while, everyone was

winning.

But, here's what happened to Japan.

When their currency doubled that fast,

their whole economy, which was mostly

export-driven, sort of seized up.

So, Japan tried to compensate and save

their economy by flooding it with cheap

money.

That cheap money created the biggest

asset bubble in modern history.

Real estate, stocks, everything went

parabolic.

And Japan spent the next 30 years trying

to dig itself out of that hole.

History calls it the lost decades and to

this day, Japan never fully recovered.

Okay, so how does this relate to China?

How it relates to China is because I

don't think the real negotiation was

about tariffs.

There's a possibility that what they

talked about was a rough draft of a new

Plaza Accord.

Why we think this is because China first

proposed this deal themselves in October

2025 to Scott Bessent.

Except,

China's not going to let their currency

get Plaza Accorded the way Japan got,

cuz they watched Japan get destroyed by

a currency revaluation.

>> [snorts]

>> So, if China's going to make a deal,

it won't be a revaluation of the dollar

against the yuan.

It'll be done through another asset. The

theory is that this asset is probably

going to be gold. And if that is right,

it could change everything. It's going

to change what it means for the dollar,

what it means for inflation, what it

means for your savings, your

investments, and probably the whole

money system itself.

So, with that said, let's speculate

together on why this is happening, what

this deal might look like, and what this

means for the US economy and our

wallets. So, with that said, let's get

into it.

Hi, my name is Humphrey Yang. Hope

you're doing well. Come for the finance

and stay for China. So, to understand

this deal and why this is being

negotiated right now,

we need to understand what's actually

happening in the world at this moment.

So, let's start with what Xi Jinping

said in his opening statement about

something called the Thucydides Trap.

Can China and the United States overcome

the Thucydides Trap

and create a new paradigm of major

country relations?

Now, the Thucydides Trap is a theory

from political science. It's actually

named after an ancient Greek historian

who studied the war between Athens and

Sparta around 400 BC.

And what Thucydides noticed was this.

When a rising power starts threatening

the dominance of an existing power, the

result is almost always war. That's cuz

fear, pride, and competition makes

conflict almost inevitable.

So, after studying cases throughout

history,

they found 16 cases where a rising power

challenged the ruling one. And in 12 of

the 16, they ended in war.

So, Xi Jinping's like, "Hey, we both

know China is a rising superpower, and

we both know how this story usually

ends. Let's not do that."

Now, to understand why it's all

happening right now, we have to look at

the most important thing, which is the

flow of energy. Because whoever controls

the flow of energy controls leverage and

what's called capital flow, aka where

money goes.

Now, we know that the Strait of Hormuz

controls roughly 20% of the world's

energy.

And since the US-Israel war with Iran

started earlier this year, the strait

has been closed, and it is still closed.

We can see that in the data.

The official story we've been told for

months is that

this will get resolved quickly, right?

The peace deal is coming, Hormuz will

reopen, everything will go back to

normal, and the stock markets have been

pricing in this perfect assumption.

But the data is telling us a completely

different story.

The story it's telling us is that the

world has been drawing down its

emergency oil reserves to compensate for

the closure.

And those reserves are starting to run

out.

Bloomberg reported that global oil

inventories will hit operational stress

levels by about June.

Minimum floor levels, meaning the bare

minimum that's needed to keep things

like pipelines running and refineries

operating, those will run out by about

September.

And Jeff Currie, who is the ex-head of

commodities at Goldman Sachs, on

Bloomberg said, "Parts of Europe and

Asia are already in shortage right now."

There's a big difference between a

deficit and a shortage. We're in a

deficit. Demand is above supply. We are

drawing inventories. And so, you're

borrowing oil from the future right now.

The US hits critical levels around July

4th.

Even the CEOs of Chevron,

ConocoPhillips, and Saudi Aramco are all

giving interviews where they're saying

that they're worried about the supply of

oil. The US can't make up all of that

supply. Mhm. Uh inventories in the

system are being drawn down and uh and

the the supply situation is tightening

and that's that's a concern.

Morgan Stanley put out research saying

there's essentially no demand

destruction in oil until prices hit $140

a barrel.

But for some reason oil is still under

$100. Someone's been using the media and

the paper markets to calm everything

down and stabilize the whole global

financial system. Right, things like oil

and rates and volatility are all being

managed. They're buying the US some

time. Minutes before each market-moving

announcement, suspiciously timed trades

made investors about $2.6 billion

betting oil prices would drop and now

the DOJ is investigating. Now, while all

of this is happening I also think we're

being sold a Hollywood story.

Cuz the official White House press

release from the Beijing summit said

both Trump and Xi agree that Iran could

never have a nuclear weapon. So, they

want people to think of this story it's

kind of like a Hollywood movie of good

guys versus bad guys.

But here's the problem. You named the

allies of China, they're all dirt bags.

They're aligning with the worst people

in the world.

They're buying oil cheaply from Iran,

keeping their war machine going. Same

thing with Russia. If China stopped

buying Iranian oil or threatened to do

it, the war in Iran would be over.

Okay, here's how you know that all of

that is theater.

China has nuclear technology. Russia has

nuclear technology. And Russia has been

Iran's closest ally throughout this

whole conflict.

Russia and China have every motive in

the world to pressure the West. Either

one of those countries, if they wanted,

could easily give Iran a nuke. Right?

Here you go, Iran. Have fun. Go use that

as leverage.

But they haven't done that. Why?

I think it's because they already have

all the leverage they need.

A closed strait is slowly draining the

world's oil supply, and that is worth

more to Russia, Iran, and arguably China

than a nuclear war.

The strait being closed is their

economic weapon of choice. So, when they

all sit down and say, "Yeah, Iran could

never have a nuclear weapon." Right?

That is all just virtue signaling. It's

all theater, and you're being told that

Hollywood story.

I believe the real story is that China

and Russia are using Iran as a proxy, as

a middleman to put pressure on the West

so that they could get favorable

leverage in this new monetary deal.

Now, who actually benefits from this is

Russia, Iran, and China because

the longer Hormuz stays closed, the more

urgently the United States needs to make

a deal before its financial markets get

exposed by the reality of the broken

supply chains. Right? And China now has

enough economic power to buy themselves

a seat at the table of this new global

monetary restructuring. So, this theory

says that that is why Trump flew to

China with 18 CEOs. He's like, "All

right, guys. Let's make a deal." Right?

And here's what this theory says they've

been trying to build. And there's two

parts to it. There's the part that's

been made public, and there's another

part that hasn't. So, the public part is

this.

According to reports from Bloomberg and

the New York Times, Trump and Xi are

considering a deal where China invests

$1 trillion

into the United States.

And most of that money will be used to

build factories in America. So, think

manufacturing plants, supply chains,

industrial infrastructure, and guess

what? That is the same strategy Japanese

automakers ran in the 1980s after the

Plaza Accord. Toyota, Honda, Nissan

building their cars in America, right?

Except this time it's Chinese capital or

money. And the scale of this is way

bigger. Now, that sounds like a win for

America, and Trump can say that this

will bring back jobs, factories,

investments, and in some ways it is. But

if you remember, China proposed this

deal first in October 2025 during

negotiations in Madrid. China gave this

offer to Secretary Scott Bessent, and

the terms were this.

China is going to flood the US with

investment money, but in exchange, the

US has to roll back national security

restrictions on Chinese deals, and get

rid of tariffs for Chinese-owned

factories built here in the US. Chinese

analyst Henry Wong says Beijing has

leverage over Iran as its largest

trading partner.

>> [music]

>> He believes she could provide a

much-needed off-ramp for Trump, but it's

likely to come at a price. She wants a

reduction in tariffs, removal of export

controls on advanced semiconductors, and

sanctions lifted. But what he wants most

is Taiwan. So, the question you have to

ask is,

well, why would China want this?

What does China get out of investing a

trillion dollars into America, right?

Cuz it's not a charity case.

So, think about what they're actually

buying with this money. They are buying

market access because America's the

biggest consumer market in the world,

and China's export economy needs it,

right? They're buying monetary

legitimacy, a seat at the table when the

global financial system gets

restructured, and gold appreciation,

right? Because if this deal triggers a

repricing of gold, China's huge reserves

explode in value.

>> [snorts]

>> The trillion-dollar investment could

potentially pay for itself.

And then, there's almost [clears throat]

certainly

something else that's kind of implied in

all of this, which is Taiwan and rare

earths. It's also critical for America's

economy. Taiwan produces more than 90%

of the world's most advanced

semiconductors, crucial for AI and

defense, making Taiwan ground zero for a

global supply chain. See, the

coexistence between the two superpowers,

between China and America, they both

know that this Thucydides trap usually

ends in war.

But China's not going to make the same

mistake Japan made. Remember, Japan let

their currency get doubled in value

overnight. It destroyed them for 30

years.

China will not allow for a direct

revaluation of the yuan against the

dollar. That is their hard line.

Here's what China's going to do instead.

They can allow for another asset to

reprice. They can use that asset as an

escape valve for this repricing.

That asset is most likely gold.

Here's why.

The United States government holds over

8,000 tons of gold. But here's the

thing. On the US government's books, the

gold is valued at only $42 an ounce.

That is still the price today, which was

set way back in 1973.

The actual market price of gold right

now is somewhere over four and a half

thousand dollars per ounce.

Which means the US is sitting on a

balance sheet that is dramatically

understated, right? Now, China also

holds insane amount of gold reserves. We

don't really know how much gold they

have, but they have a lot.

And unlike the US, China's been

aggressively accumulating more gold for

years. And according to research from

Luke Roman at FTT,

for five of the last six months, the

single biggest export out of the United

States, bigger than oil, bigger than

pharmaceuticals, bigger than aircraft

engines, has been gold, something called

non-monetary gold. Physical gold is

leaving America.

Where is it going?

It's going to China. Or Switzerland

first and then eventually to China.

Right, why is that such a big deal? It's

a big deal because there's a rule of

thumb that has held true throughout

basically most of history.

The rule is that the country exporting

its gold is usually the one losing, and

the country importing gold is usually

the one winning.

For example, think about what happened

to Great Britain in the early 20th

century.

As the British Empire declined, gold

left London and came into New York.

And by the time World War II ended,

America held more than half of all the

world's gold.

That gold pile is literally why the

dollar became the world's reserve

currency. The country with the gold

writes the rules.

Ironically, you don't see China and all

their financial power coming to meet

Trump here in America. It's the other

way around, right?

And right now in 2026,

the United States is the single biggest

exporter of gold in the world. It's

going to China. Right, this is the

silhouette of a monetary transition

that's happening right now.

It's not 100% for sure, but these are

sort of like the fingerprints of a deal

that is being made in China. And here's

what this gold-centric Plaza Accord

might actually look like. So, instead of

China revaluing the yuan against the

dollar, which would destroy China's

export economy the way it destroyed

Japan's,

both sides could allow the dollar to

weaken against gold.

The US could mark its gold reserves to

market price, and all of the sudden, the

US balance sheet could look dramatically

better.

The debt burden would look a lot more

manageable. The dollar weakens, not

against the yuan directly necessarily,

but indirectly against gold, which means

China's huge gold reserves also go up in

value as well, and China gets richer

without ever having to touch the yuan

exchange rate.

Now, in return, Chinese money floods

into American manufacturing.

A trillion dollars of investment for

factories, infrastructure, jobs. The

American industrial base could

potentially get rebuilt, ironically with

Chinese money, but either way, Trump

gets to look like a hero, and China gets

access to American markets. They get

tariff relief. And most importantly,

they get a seat at the table in this new

monetary structure.

Chinese cars could potentially hit the

US market within about 5 years from now.

And both sides could call it a win.

Right? They both get to look like

Hollywood heroes that saved humanity by

not allowing Iran to have a nuclear

weapon. The reality of this is that it's

most likely a coordinated devaluation of

the dollar against something else.

And here's what makes me think that this

might be more than just a theory.

The market could potentially be pricing

this in. The insiders know, right? Since

late March,

right around the time of US Treasury

markets starting to show signs of

stress,

the dollar's been falling against the

Chinese yuan.

That is the opposite of what you think

would happen in a war that's supposedly

designed to put pressure on China.

Right? The Chinese currency has been

getting stronger, not weaker.

At the same time,

this is the chart which shows a

country's borrowing costs. These are

bond yields. And you can see the Chinese

government's bond yields, that turquoise

line, that's been pretty steady. It's

been going down.

All other countries borrowing costs,

including the United States,

they're all going up.

That is also the opposite of what should

be happening if China was hurt by any of

this.

So, the only logical conclusion here is

they're not really affected by this.

Other nations are because their

borrowing costs are going up.

And of course, gold has been on an

absolute tear.

These are just

fingerprints of what could be a deal

that is sort of underway.

The market is sniffing it out before the

announcement because smart money,

they kind of know this. The insiders

know. And if this deal gets done,

what happens is the dollar devalues

while Chinese investment restructures

American manufacturing and it sets off a

chain reaction across every asset class.

And what that leads to

is inflation, right?

Inflation is not just a side effect of

this deal. It It might be the whole

point because

the dirty secret of modern finance

is that inflation is how you make

unpayable debt payable again. Right? You

inflate it away.

A dollar of debt borrowed in 2020 gets

repaid in $2030

that are worth half as much.

So, the debt shrinks in real terms.

And the way normal people experience

this is through the price of eggs, rent,

and gas.

But inflation doesn't hit everyone

equally. Right? If you own assets like

stocks and real estate, gold, Bitcoin,

ancient gold coins, Pokémon cards,

watches, whatever,

inflation makes you richer. Your assets

go up in what's called the nominal

value. So, you get protected. This is

the top half of what economists call the

K-shaped economy, the line that goes up.

But if you don't own assets and you're

living paycheck to paycheck and your

wealth is in a savings account

somewhere,

then inflation destroys you.

Your dollar buys you less over time,

which means your rent goes up, your

groceries cost more, and wages don't

keep pace. That is literally what's

happening right now in the data.

That's the bottom half of the K, the

line that's going down.

But now, layer in on top of all of that,

what's happening with AI.

The AI revolution that's making the top

half of the economy more productive is

also

getting rid of the jobs that the bottom

half depends on, like customer service,

right? Data entry, trucking,

manufacturing, warehouse work. These

changes are literally happening right

now.

And not everyone's going to be able to

adapt because math and statistics.

Transitions of this scale always leave

some people behind.

That creates anger. It creates low

consumer sentiment, which is what we're

seeing in the data. The kind that

sometimes leads to social instability,

protests, unrest, and potentially a

breakdown of trust in institutions.

And the people that are sort of

engineering this monetary transition,

the central planners,

they've known this was coming for a long

time. And that's why they've built the

infrastructure to manage it.

Now, they call it financial innovation,

digital identity, programmable currency,

digital ID, the world run on algorithms.

But what it really is is a

centralization of power. It's a digital

control grid. And you need people on

their best behavior when the class

divide gets worse.

So, the tools to do that are being built

right now.

And if you want to learn more about

that, you can watch it somewhere up

here, but it's called the digital

control grid. So, tying all of this

together, just remember that all of this

is a theory. These are the most informed

guesses we can make with the information

available right now. So, the deal might

never get done, right? Hormuz might

reopen tomorrow, and maybe this gold

theory is completely wrong.

Or maybe it's right, but we don't know

exactly where this inflation gets

absorbed. Will gold be the absorber of

all the inflation? Will it be consumer

prices? Will it be a combination of

both? We don't know. And maybe the

digital control grid is all just

paranoia.

Regardless of whether this is Plaza

Accord 2.0 or whether the supply chains

break and markets crash, which is also

another possibility, I think all

scenarios sort of point to the same

thing.

The dollar loses value, and the people

who are protected are the ones who own

the assets. So, the question is,

which side of the K-shaped economy are

you on?

If your wealth is sitting in cash or in

a savings account in dollars, you might

be on the wrong side of the trade. The

assets that make sense to hold in this

environment are ones that governments

can't print more of. Now, gold is the

obvious choice, right? Bitcoin is

another one. This is not investment

advice or a call to buy anything. It's

just an asset that the government can't

print more of. And, broadly speaking,

any asset that has scarcity and utility.

So far, this story is not over. This

deal is probably not been signed yet.

The oil crisis hasn't peaked, right?

Kevin Warsh hasn't taken over the Fed

yet. There's still a lot more coming.

There's a lot more to this story, and

I'll be breaking it down as it develops,

but for now, this theory makes a lot of

sense. And if you want to see how I'm

personally preparing for all of this,

the specific assets that I'm holding,

what I think of this market, and what

I'm actually doing with my own money,

those videos live in the premium members

section. I also post more videos there,

and you'll get access to the videos

earlier than on the main channel. And if

that is useful to you, the link is down

below. Thank you for the support. It

allows me to take on fewer sponsors in

the future and continue to make videos

like this one. In the meantime, I'd love

to hear your thoughts about all of this

and what your theory is. I hope you have

a wonderful rest of your day. Smash the

like button. Subscribe if you haven't

already. I'd love to see you here next

week. I'll see you soon. Bye-bye. Shh.