Ray Dalio: We’re Heading Into Very, Very Dark Times! America & The UK’s Decline Is Coming!
2469 segments
Pay attention. Pain plus reflection
equals progress. And from that
principle, my company became the largest
hedge fund in the world.
>> Managing how much?
>> 150 billion dollars. But I learned that
history of things that never happened in
my lifetime before were important things
to understand in order to predict the
future. And we can get into that if you
want.
>> Please. So Ray Dalio is the legendary
billionaire investor
>> who decoded the cycles of human history
to predict financial crashes, build the
world's largest hedge fund, and now to
warn us about what lies ahead. Are you
optimistic about the future of the UK?
No. What about the United States? No.
Why? Okay. In order to bet on what's
going to happen on the global economy, I
learned that there's five big forces
that create a big cycle that's repeated
through history, which lasts about 80
years. The first is the money debt force
that creates wealth and opportunities
gaps. And it's connected to the second
force, the internal conflict where you
don't trust the system, causing wars
between the left and the right. And it's
not easy answers like tax the rich. And
we can get into that. But the third is
geopolitical force. In other words,
international conflict. Then there's
acts of nature. And then number five is
man's inventiveness, particularly of new
technologies. Now, the question is who
wins the technology war because the
winner of that determine how the new
world order works. Is it something to be
concerned about?
>> No. The question is how you as an
individual handle it. How do I as an
individual handle it? So there's
building your financial strength,
flexibility, importance of being
open-minded, and how to get more out of
the minute, not how to work harder. And
I really urge your audience to learn all
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thank you so much because in a strange
way you are you're part of our history
and you're on this journey with us and I
appreciate you for that. So, yeah, thank
you.
Ray,
I I want to describe to you who's
listening right now. And the question I
have for you is what is the most
important thing that this persona of
person should be thinking about at the
highest level right now. So, the the
person that's listening is someone who
is intent on improving their life.
They're they're really interested in
business, potentially starting their own
business. They they care about where
they're investing their their time and
energy, and also where they're setting
up their home based on in terms of
geography.
They are aspiring to accomplish some
goal. They're probably between the age
of 18 and
50 predominantly.
And they are very very interested in
understanding what's happening in the
world that feels incredibly
scary,
fast-paced, and uncertain at the moment.
This is a very difficult question. But
if anyone I was going to ask anyone, it
would have to be you.
What what's one of the first things they
should be considering at this moment to
safeguard their future, their family,
their finances? I don't think it's a
difficult question. I um
I think it's it's very clear. They have
to understand how the life cycle works.
Okay. They have to understand how it
works. We were just talking before and
and on the book and there was the arc of
the life cycle, right? And you have to
understand that you're on an adventurous
journey, okay? And you have a certain
nature,
you know, those qualities that make make
you have your preferences and so on. And
then you're going after the things that
you like and you're learning and it's
going to have the ups and downs and so
on. And how you approach that. So, you
asked from the higher level if I'm
looking down, you know, like that life
cycle, that arc, what's that journey
like?
How do you approach it? You know, what
are your principles? How do you even
learn how to approach it? That's why
we're having these conversations, right?
So, that's clear.
You know, what's your nature?
How's the journey?
How do you find the path that's suitable
to your nature?
And then you'll go down that path and
you'll discover
and you'll evolve.
What's that like? That's what they need
to know. You said what's your nature.
What do you mean by nature?
>> People are born with and then also their
environment creates their different
nature, you know? We have our
preferences, our inclinations. We think
in a certain way. You chose to be
entrepreneurial, okay? You're living out
your nature, okay? This isn't for
somebody else. You know, some people
have a different nature, okay? They
would like to have the stability of a
job and clarity and so on. So, when you
have your nature, you want to know that
and then find the path that is going to
be good for your nature. Then there's
the particular tactical stuff. So, if
you would ask me, should I be in the UK
or should I be in the US? Well, that
depends on a lot of things, but that's a
tactical question. So, if I want to be
an entrepreneur and I want to build a
technology company, do you think I
should be in the UK or the US? I think
you should be in the US. Why? The US has
a culture of
um entrepreneurship, inventiveness.
There's a whole different culture like
in Europe, generally speaking, and in
and and in the UK. There's an
establishment culture, right? And it
here um you could be 25, have a blue
streak in your hair, and have the
talent, but if you got the talent to
pull it off, you can get the resources
and you can be an entrepreneur. It's
There's a culture of that that means
that it's happening more. That's why you
even see the differences in the
economies, okay? Where is the
inventiveness really happening? Okay?
It's happening here. So, I would say if
you want to be an entrepreneur, this is
an environment that's particularly
conducive to being an entrepreneur.
So, what is your honest perspective
about the UK at the moment? The UK has a
financial problem. Uh the government has
a debt problem. It doesn't have enough
money for what it wants to do and what
it can do. And so, what you see is the
non-dom problem, people moving, and so
and so forth. And throughout history,
when you have these sorts of things,
then there's great clashes in people,
okay? And the UK has been in decline
since the war.
Even the development of the capital
markets, can you raise capital there?
All of these things are much worse
than they are in the United States.
And it leads to clashes, as you said. Of
course, you know, there are five big
forces
that create a big cycle
that lasts
about 80 years, give or take 50, let's
say. And the five big forces are There's
a money
debt economy force, okay? Debts are
spending power. So, what happens is when
you give somebody credit, they can
spend.
And then but it also produces debt. And
debt has to be paid back. And so, what
happens is if there's not enough income
to pay back the debt,
then you have
um debt rising relative to income. It
squeezes out spending. People don't want
to hold the debt assets and so on. The
UK is going through that and has gone
through that and it's connected to the
second force. And we're all going
through this in varying degrees. The
second force is the internal political
and social
force. In other words, like between the
left and the right with wealth gaps and
opportunities gaps. We have big wealth
and opportunities gaps. So, when you
have big wealth and opportunities gaps,
there's conflict. Okay, conflict between
the left and the right. And when you get
to the situation where you don't believe
the system is working for you and you
don't trust the system, then there are
wars. There are internal conflicts
over over that and so on. So, the third
force is the geopolitical force. In
other words,
there's a cycle that usually goes from
one big war to another big war. So, the
last war ended in 1945,
'44, and we began a new order in 1945.
And the way that works is that the
winners of the war determine how the
world order works.
They draw borders. They say, "Here's how
it's going to work." And that's the new
order, okay? And that continues until
there's a rising power challenging an
existing power in the existing world
order, which typically is deteriorating
at that time. And then you have
international conflict, okay? These
orders, there's a monetary order, they
all break down. There's an in- internal
political order, they all break down.
And and there's a geopolitical order.
They all have this conflict and they
work together. The fourth force it
throughout history has been acts of
nature. Droughts, floods, and pandemics,
for example, have killed more people
than wars.
And acts of nature Nature has a big
effect. And then number five force is
man's inventiveness, particularly of new
technologies.
Okay? Because if you see that
inventiveness, that has raised per
capita incomes, GDP per capita, any
measures of the living standards over a
period of time and and so on. But it is
also related to the first four that I
said. Those four four forces interact.
Now, when we go back to your UK case,
okay, they have a financial problem.
They and almost every country now is
dealing with more of that internal
political problem.
For the same reasons. Wealth gaps,
opportunities gaps, what do we do, who's
got the power, I don't trust the system
kind of thing. Okay, number three is we
are certainly in an international great
powers conflict, right? And it certainly
affects Europe and the UK as we're
dealing with not only the Ukraine
situation, but the Russian situation.
And what does that mean? And that
relates to the money thing because,
okay, where's the money coming from to
have defense or military expenditures
and so on and so forth. So, that
matters, right? The geopolitical
matters, climate certainly matters, and
then of course technology, man's
inventiveness.
So, everything can be looked through at
through that lens.
And so, what does this mean for the UK
if all other countries are going through
this as well? Doesn't it just mean that
all countries are going to suffer
equally? No, no, no, because they're not
all equal. Okay, some are more in debt
than others. Okay, some people are more
willing to hold their debt than others.
Some means they they have more
resources, some are bigger and more
powerful, some are less powerful.
They're different, okay? They're all
going in different conditions. Some
countries have surpluses, some
countries, you know, are not in the
middle of where they're just having a
war.
Are you optimistic about the the future
of the UK at the moment?
No.
No.
Because it has high debt, it has the
social internal conflict, it has it's
affected by the geopolitical factors.
And in terms of inventiveness, it
doesn't have the culture
that other countries have like like the
US.
>> Is that it?
>> Yes, the cult culture and the capital
markets to support that at a scale that
it needs to be supported to play
seriously in the game. And for anyone
that doesn't know what capital markets
mean, basically the invest markets,
isn't it a simple way of saying
>> Well, I mean, it gets you the money. In
other words, you're a guy behind, you
know, what happens is
um
we have to enable people.
Okay, what what works
is finding great people, talented
people, and identifying
those who you want to bet on.
And enabling them.
And that works that's the most important
force, much more important than money.
Okay, because you could see
who's got the money and power and where
did they come from? Where did Nvidia
come from?
Where did they all come from? Okay,
they're guys like you, entrepreneur in a
sense, who's been enabled. Okay, by
because you have the talent and people
want to bet on you and that's the
capital market, so they give you money
to help enable you because they want to
bet on you and then good things happen.
But are you are you optimistic about the
United States at the moment? The United
States is very much a big picture. No, I
think it's very much in this issue. This
So, if I go down my list, it definitely
has this
debt money economy problem. We can get
into that, okay? It definitely has the
internal conflict power in which there
is a fight between the left, you know,
the hard left and the right due to
wealth and values gaps and people not
believing that the system will work for
them. And so, democracy is at risk
because they don't believe the they're
not going to follow the rules in the
sense they don't believe the rules are
going to
number three, it's of course the leading
one side in this great power conflict of
the world, right? In other words, yes,
between the United States and the one
side, let's say, and China and the
allies their allies on the other side. I
mean, in the news you just saw the
meetings of Xi, Putin, Modi and that
group over there walking down, you know,
and okay. So, now it should be pretty
clear how the sides are lining up.
Okay, you it's always better to be in a
place that's not in one of those wars.
Like, stay out of wars.
And of course, climate has an effect.
And of course, then we have technology.
The United States and China are in the
big technology competitions. The others
are really not in the game, they don't
have the money, that this innovation and
talent in a sense to play at that scale
and so on. So, we have a great, you
know, technology
war which can be used to create great
advances, but at the same time could be
used for great conflicts. And so, now
the question is going to be who wins the
technology war because the winner of the
technology war is going to win all wars,
okay?
In other words, they'll win the economic
war.
They'll win the geopolitical war because
technology. And I'm not saying anything
that hasn't repeated through history.
Give me that historical context if you
can just for for
The technology, for example, nuclear
Yeah. Nuclear
won World War II.
And and does this cycle go back further
than just
>> Oh, no, it goes back
that book, okay.
Um in order to understand these things
because I have to bet on what's going to
happen. I'm a global macro investor. I
studied the last 500 years of history.
And it happens over and over again in
all cases.
Oh, so I could take the British Empire,
I could take you through all the
empires, but the Dutch Empire before
that and all this and it it it it
happens all the time.
I watched your I watched your videos
about this and it's truly fascinating
how predictable this stuff is and
the work that you've done to uncover
this trend throughout history. I mean,
it's almost for me it was almost
irrefutable watching the evidence in in
things like a 40-minute video on YouTube
where you show how this played out
through empires. And it begs the
question, you know, cuz
when you live in the United States, when
you're when you're in the present time,
you almost never assume that the empire
you're in could fall.
You just don't you don't see how it can
happen. We're so strong, we're so great,
you know, we're so that doing AI over
here, have money over here, everything's
good, the sun's shining.
Of course.
People always think that the future
would be a slightly modified version of
the present.
And it's not.
Okay, watch over decades, but it's like
watching a
person grow. Yeah. Okay. Yeah. You know,
you watch your kid or you watch a person
any age, any age, and that's what you
see. Yeah. Okay, and you don't see the
life arc. Yeah. Okay, but the life arc
is in irrefutable. But the you do do you
think it's conceivable that in the next
50 to 100 years the US could no longer
be the dominant power globally?
Yeah.
Yeah, more than conceivable. More than
conceivable.
What do what do you what do you mean by
more than conceivable?
I mean that these evolutions always take
place.
And they take place in a certain way.
And that
if you look at the
probabilities
and the paths and the symptoms,
there is a challenge the United States
is facing a number of those challenges.
And we're at a moment where um
it's a question of whether the system
and
the people
could can get control
of the situations and deal with it
strongly
and well
in a way where they are not
fighting
to the point of
damaging each other and damaging
the prospects for the future.
But I mean, the United States is very
innovative.
Got all these great innovative companies
here, so surely Yeah, but you can't make
generalizations about the United States
and you can't make generalizations, by
the way, about the markets either. Um
what you see is
um
1% a small percentage 1% of the
population. If you're looking at the
breakdown of incomes and also you're
looking at the innovation, the stock
markets, which stocks are doing well,
who owns those companies and all of
that. About 3 million people in a
country of 330 million people are really
unbelievably doing great and you could
pick the
neighborhoods they're in and what
they're doing. And then there's the top
10%, let's say, which is the people
around them and they're really really
doing great in that world. At the same
time, the bottom 60%
60% of Americans have below a sixth
grade reading level.
Wow.
And that population
in terms of
the basics
being productive
you have to be productive
and be prosperous. So,
what what you need to have a succe-
successful society is to have
broad-based productivity and prosperity.
Okay, and that's a problem.
Okay, so which America are you looking
at and are you watching the war that's
happening between these?
It's a little bit complicated for me as
a as a bit of an outsider because I see
Trump
saying he represents
those people.
But obviously Trump is a from the
billionaire class himself. So
I mean is he is he a savior for
inequality? Is he correcting in I think
I think he sees a lot of the problem and
he I think he sees the debt problem. I
think he sees the internal conflict
disorder problem. And I think he
represents
the red let's call it the red states. I
mean you look at a map and there's red
and blue and you see where they are.
Okay. And he represents that and they're
united behind him in terms of doing some
things. Okay. So he represents let's
call it the red side which is located
where the maps shows red and then there
are the blue and and he's
he views himself as somebody who needs
to take charge and to do certain things.
Others in that population would say
those who let's say are not getting or
having the food stamp program cut off
or having other programs cut off that
they're dependent on
would say
well a second that's not representing
me.
And so we have gone that population has
gone to significant number behind him.
That are
devotees.
They're all in.
Okay. At the same time as we have the
other side which will have their
devotees. If you know we're in New York
City.
Okay. And the up to upcoming mayoral
election will be an example of the two
sides. Okay. And they will
try to use the system but there's a
question. Will the system have enough
support to work? Okay. But that's what
we have. Just just to close up on this
point of the UK in particular. If if you
were to try and fix it, what would you
be aiming at? I say this because we do
have a millionaire exodus that's widely
reported in the UK where I think this
year was set to lose 16,000
roughly 16,000 millionaires.
When you look at the big big countries
like China, America, the UAE, the UK,
we're losing more millionaires than
anybody else. And I was wondering if you
think it's fixable and if you were in
charge of the UK
what you might aim at first.
It's difficult you know. First of all,
if you go back to the basic problem
which is there's too much debt
there are deficits
there's differences in
education and opportunity levels
and so on.
The most important thing that you can
have
is a strong middle.
Political middle? Political middle.
To be analytically strong
and also strong enough
to get the people to do what needs to be
done even if they don't want to do it to
get to be productive.
Now that's an easy thing to say.
It's not an easy thing to do. But you do
need that strong middle and you do need
to convey to people that you need to
have the strong middle to change
productivity.
And you know and are you in it?
Are are you in it? Are you patriotic and
in it and you know. But you look at
history
how did the United States come to be the
United States? People will go
to the places
that are better
than them than stay in the places that
worse for them. This is fundamental,
right? Incentives. Okay. So you have to
make the place
better.
Okay. Now I would say also you can take
pockets
and they go into the pocket and let it
spread out but you also have to have
this
equal education or you know you've got
to strive for equal opportunity. But
anyway, it's a difficult question that
I'm afraid
I'm incapable of
um
solving.
It was unnerving to hear the tone of
your voice drop when I asked it. You
slightly um
as if you you've kind of given up on the
UK a little bit.
Your facial reaction
>> No, I'm I'm just a I'm just a
I'm a practical guy.
I'm a realistic guy. I made my money.
I'm in the business
and it's my nature
to try to be realistic.
And to bet on how things will transpire.
And that's not healthy. The situation in
the UK is not healthy. And the situation
in the United States is very risky in
many ways. It's what we're describing.
So you know and then if you look where
are people going
then then you see the places that have
the qualities we're talking about.
They're civil.
They're creative.
The people aren't at war with each
other.
What happens next
in history?
Well, usually there's a big fight for
control.
Political revolutions and things like
that.
The system breaks down
because they don't trust the system.
So
will the legal system resolve that? Will
the parliamentary system resolve that?
That these disputes
satisfactorily
to the satisfaction of those people and
the other people who have different
points of view?
And the sides won't believe it. This
goes back
this goes back to Rome. It goes back to
Caesar.
You know, the Senate.
You know, this goes back through history
all the time. Right? And and then the
30s four major democracies
chose to be autocracies. Okay. That
happened in Italy, Germany, Spain and
Japan. What's autocracy for anyone that
doesn't know the word? Well, it it means
a dictatorship
essentially
of a limited number of people at the top
who are autocratic which means that they
are directing things rather than a
democracy
in which
there's representatives of all different
points of view that get together and
follow rules to make decisions.
So the UK could become an autocracy
as could the US I guess.
Um you're going to see a lot of pressure
for that strong leader who will get
control of things and make it work well.
And will and you're likely to see
two different views
as to which side you know, the red and
the blue sides so to speak. You're
likely to see that type of
clash. You said the US is playing a
risky game itself.
Is that from a debt debt perspective or
otherwise?
>> Well, from these things. Okay.
>> from the internal conflict from the
changing world order, the geopolitical
world conflict. You know, I don't know.
We're playing with nuclear weapons and
in wars in different places and then of
course climate and then
the technology war how we're doing that.
You know. I saw that image the other day
of Putin and and President Xi in China
together walking together. If China does
become the dominant force in the world
the dominant power
does is that a smooth transition? First
of all, I don't think
either side is going to be the clearly
dominant power for for a very long time.
Um and the
the quickest way
to have it is some kind of a war and
that's a dangerous thing. And but maybe
it evolves
hopefully the way the Soviet Union of
evolved that the the worry of mutually
assured destruction
keeps everybody
not having
that kind of war and then then then the
systems one system or another system
wins.
But that's an evolutionary process and
you know I can't say and
um
Do you think much about time frames and
cuz I when I was watching the fifth when
I was going through the changing world
order, there seems to be somewhat
consistent or predictable time frames
when these things these transitions
happen. Do you think about where we are?
>> Well, they're long-term big cycles.
Yeah. Right? It's it's like a life
cycle. On average they are about a life
cycle about 80 years. But it's not
predetermined just like your life cycle
is not predetermined. Like if you take
care of yourself and you you know I
don't know don't smoke, eat well,
exercise and so on so forth then you
will probably have a longer life cycle
than if you don't take care of yourself
and it's kind of like that you know. And
so you see them in history they evolve
but you can see the symptoms.
Okay. You can see the actions and the
symptoms.
Which like taking a physical
then gives you a sense of where they are
in their life cycles. What 80 years from
World War II. 80 years from World War
II, yeah.
And you're seeing the symptoms. Yeah.
Symptoms are clear. They're all in that
book. You can see the charts of all the
systems. Is it something to be worried
about or concerned about
if you're in the United States?
No
Yes.
And then the question is how you as an
individual handle it. How do I as an
individual handle it?
Well, first of all, I think
I think you have to be aware of the
situation and the risks.
For me and my family though, in terms of
risks
and how I should um
counteract those risks. Is it a case of
me saving for a rainy day? Is it a case
That's part of it. Yeah. Um
there's a there's a saying in Hong Kong
um a Chinese saying which is a smart
rabbit has three holes.
And what that means is
you can see is it the UK or the US and
uh and I can then move to the better
place and get out of the place that's a
terrible place. So, can I successfully
be an immigrant or whatever and change
my location? Throughout history, that's
been important. So, the ability to go to
good places
and away from bad places.
Um so, that's part of it.
Um secondly
building your financial strength
is important, which has to do with how
you earn, spend, and save. That will
determine
the amount.
And then, what you do with that amount
is invest. And so, how you invest
uh is also important.
So,
if you have your financial ability
and you can make the move and then you
have knowledge
you know, about what's happening
so that you can change things. Those are
the things you need. So, on that first
point about a smart rabbit having three
holes
is it therefore
a better decision at this point in time
to not
to not buy a house?
Because a lot of people end up buying a
house and it anchors them to to a place
and it means that they then have to pay
into a mortgage. So, a lot of a lot of
financial advice most of us have growing
up is when you get enough money to buy a
house, move in, pay that mortgage for 25
years. But if I'm in a new economy in a
new world and flexibility and the
ability to get up and go and move is uh
there's there's uh value to that. The
ability to move capital matters. And if
you look at history this has been an
important consideration. Yes, so it
matters. So, if you're nailing yourself
down and that's your primary capital and
it's nailed down there, then that's
those limit your flexibility.
And on the point of earning, spending,
and saving
wondered what you you're a You're a a
father, aren't you? Yeah.
What what advice are you giving to your
children about earning money in the in
the current world?
Where where they should set up their
shop, the skills that are most valuable
to acquire, the technologies, the we
talked about the US being a place to
one of the better places to build your
career
for all the reasons you described.
Well, that's
You know, that's kind of like the
particular that you asked me for that's
below the level of the higher level.
Okay? The higher level is I have a
principle. Make your work and your
passion the same thing and don't forget
about the money part.
Okay, if you make your work and your
passion the same thing so that you're
really enjoying your work
you'll have an enjoyable, satisfactory
life and you'll probably be better at
your career. That um as a result, you
probably advance and so on. So, you have
a happier life and you will have a more
probably a more successful life. But it
is true that the careers that you choose
will have financial implications. Mhm.
And if you say I want to be a poet or
something along those lines, you better
consider the financial implications of
that. That doesn't mean that you have to
go make a ton of money cuz I think that
that's I think a lot of people fall into
that trap that they think the money is
um like vast amounts of money is vast
amounts of success and that's not true.
In other words, is your work and your
passion the same thing? So, I think that
what brings people happiness is
meaningful work and meaningful
relationships.
Mhm. Okay, if you have meaningful work,
you know, that you're into and you're
what you know, your passion and your
work's the same thing and you have
meaningful relationships whether through
that work or beyond you going to have
probably a great life, okay? And so, you
have to keep that in mind and it doesn't
have much correlation past a certain
level of money Mhm. uh it doesn't have
much correlation with um that well-being
with the amount of money you have. And
if you see studies across societies and
you'll see that past that certain basic
level, there's no correlation between
the amount of money they have and how
much happiness they have or well-being,
okay? That the highest level of
correlation across societies and studies
of happiness and well-being is
community.
Do you have a sense of community? Do you
have those around you who are your
community? You'll live longer that way.
You'll have a more joyous life and it'll
be a better outcome. But anyway, so
thinking about those things I think is
important.
Based on your life cycle in this book,
Principles: Your Guided Journey, Create
Your Own Principles to Get the Work and
Life You Want
do you think you have to play different
games in different seasons of your life
cycle as it relates to generating
wealth? And what I'm talking about here
is really like risk profile um or what I
should be optimizing for. Should I be
Should I be trying to hang around with
Ray Dalio or should I be focusing on the
job that pays me the most?
First of all, yeah, the answer is yes.
And uh the second question you asked the
answer is um that you should be around
the
the people who are the best people to
teach you, to operate by them, the
mentors, and the learnings, and so on.
You should be around the best people.
And when I say best people, I mean
people of good character and good
capabilities, okay? And uh so, you
should be around the best, not the job
that pays you the most.
And I could explain why that is, but and
yes, in terms of that arc, you will play
it differently at different parts of
your life cycle. So, in the early part
of your life cycle, what you're going to
do is I mean, the more
learning and experiencing is the most
important thing that you can do in the
learning in the early part of your life
cycle.
It's like you're going to make your
choices. What direction am I going to be
in and so on and so forth. So, learn,
okay? That's that's most important. And
then once you're at the end of your life
cycle, you're pretty much relieved from
all of that. You're not going to be
working to earn, okay? You're going to
be free of all of that. You're going to
have
um and you have freedom of choices and
so on. And you're going to be thinking
about transitioning.
How do I transition well-being or how do
I transition my wealth or how do I
transition and so on, you know? That's
that's where you are. Still learning is
a joy
but at the same time in terms of trying
to accomplish it's not the same at your
late part of your life cycle as it is in
your early part of your life cycle. So,
I want to ask about your early life
cycle and what the most important
strategic or wealth-generating decisions
you made
that you would encourage everybody to
consider if their nature is aligned to
yours.
>> Okay, my nature was I hated school.
I didn't like
the whole thing of remembering this and
remembering this and then give it back
to me and there were these uh you know,
history like there's William the
Conqueror in 1066 and what did he do and
you know, like all of that was what
education represented. And when I was um
12, a kid I earned money with odd jobs
like um I had a paper route and
um I mowed lawns and I caddied and I
took my caddying money and when I was
12, I got everybody was talking about
the stock market. So, I put some money
in the stock market. I didn't know what
I was doing, of course, but I um I
picked um the stock. It was the only
stock I ever heard of that was selling
for less than $5 a share and my
reasoning was I could buy more shares.
So, if it went up, I could make more
money.
Okay, that was a stupid criteria, but it
was a company that was about to go
bankrupt and another company acquired it
and it tripled in price.
And I said, I like this game.
So, I got I got hooked on the game.
I'm still hooked on the game, right? So,
I liked it. Okay, that that affected me.
So, I barely got into uh CW Post College
and then I went to uh Harvard Business
School and that opened my eyes to the
world in the in many ways because of who
were there and what it was like and all
that, you know, the best and the
brightest kind of thing. But I always
still
traded markets cuz I always played the
game.
And I can tell you stories that you want
me to couple of quick stories?
>> 100%
>> Okay.
So, I'm clerking on the floor of the New
York Stock Exchange between graduating
from college and in the summer between
graduating from college and going to
Harvard Business School and that is 1970
summer of 1971.
And on August 15th, 1971,
Richard Nixon
gets on the television
and says
that you know the promise that that you
were going to be able to take your paper
money and go get gold, you can't do
that.
And we're not we're going to cut off
that off. He didn't say it in exactly
those words, but money then was gold.
And what we think of is paper money,
fiat money, was claims on the gold. So,
I walked on the floor of the New York
Stock Exchange that summer and I thought
the market was going to go down a lot
and the market went up a lot.
And I didn't understand why cuz I never
went through a devaluation before and I
studied history
and I found that
in March of 1933,
Roosevelt got on the radio and made the
exact same announcement that you're not
going to get your gold and they're going
to print the money and when you print a
lot of money, you have that.
Okay. So, I learned
that history
of things that never happened in my
lifetime before were important things to
understand. Okay. I went back
then to Harvard Business School to for 2
years and and 2 years later, as a result
of all the printing of money and the oil
shock because of all of that, uh we had
the I in 1973 oil shock.
And now because of my background, I'm
head hired to be director of commodities
at a Wall Street brokerage firm.
Okay. Mhm. Which and then
all sorts of things happened. Um
turbulence and so and so forth. That
firm went broke. I went to another firm
and I was
uh rowdy. I wasn't your typical good
employee, you know, follow everything
and so
So, I got fired.
And that was in uh 1975.
And then I but uh clients all liked me
and and for things and so, they would
pay me for advice and I continued to
trade the markets and that's when I
formed Bridgewater.
Okay.
And what happened?
>> That was 1975.
I just passed along Bridgewater 50 years
later. Yeah. Okay.
So, there's a journey there
that has failures and successes and
learnings. You know, I have a principle.
Pain plus reflection equals progress.
Okay. Your best learnings come from the
pain. It's a message. Pay attention.
Learn how reality works and how to deal
with it differently so you have
principles for real dealing with reality
better.
And I learned that process and from that
process, my company Bridgewater became
the largest hedge fund in the world. Um
extremely successful. Managing how much
at 150 billion dollars. 1,500 people 150
billion dollars. And that's made you a
very wealthy man. It made me a very
wealthy man, which by the way, was not
my intention.
Okay. I just wanted to play the game and
to have meaningful work and meaningful
relationships. That was paramount, but
it happened to be the game I played. If
you're good at the game, you make a lot
of money. And now, I'm in a stage in my
life where I'm
I want to pass things along. I need to
pass things along, right? So, hence the
books, hence our conversation
and here we are. That's the life arc.
But I learned a lot
and so that's the journey.
I think B2B marketers keep making this
mistake. They're chasing volume instead
of quality. And when you try to be seen
by more people instead of the right
people, all you're doing is making
noise, but that noise rarely shifts the
needle and it's often quite expensive.
And I know there was a time in my career
where I kept making this mistake that
many of you will be making it too.
Eventually, I started posting ads on our
show sponsors platform LinkedIn and
that's when things started to change. I
put that change down to a few critical
things. One of them being that LinkedIn
was then and still is today the platform
where decision makers go to, not only to
think and learn, but also to buy. And
when you market your business there,
you're putting it right in front of
people who actually have the power to
say yes. And you can target them by job
title, industry and company size. It's
simply a sharper way to spend your
marketing budget. And if you haven't
tried it, how about this? Give LinkedIn
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you can claim that right now. That's
linkedin.com/diary.
Just for context, people don't like
talking about money and I understand it,
but you're a prolific philanthropist.
Also, Google says that your net worth is
in the tens of billions of dollars and
I'm sure there's some people that have
clicked on this conversation and aren't
aware of the scale of wealth you built
up in the scale of Bridgewater Capital
and how prolific and famous it is
in the investing world. In that 50-year
life arc, one of the things you
mentioned is pain.
All of us will encounter pain.
And you said pain plus reflection equals
progress.
How have you learned to deal with pain?
You've had a lot of pain in all facets
of life cuz you've lived the life arc
and you continue to. How what's the best
principle for dealing with pain?
The first of all, um to calm yourself
down
and to get centered. Meditation has had
a big beneficial effect on my life.
We can get into meditation in a minute
of how it has, but the ability to, you
know, in a sense,
calm yourself down
and when the time is right
to reflect on
what's happened
both to understand how reality works.
You know, you want to be a hyperrealist.
I understand how reality works,
therefore I need to do this under this
set of circumstances,
which means developing principles. And
so, what I did
when I would do that anytime and
whenever I would think, what what should
I do,
whether painful or not,
I would pause, reflect
on, you know, what should I do if that
happened again
and that's how I would write down my
principles.
And what I did was I wrote down
a lot of principles.
>> principles. A lot of principles. If this
happens, that happens and whatever.
And then so, I wrote these principles
down
and then I found that in investing,
um if I can computerize
those
decision rules,
I could back test them, see how they
would have worked and so on. So, I built
systems, decision-making systems. Um
computer would make decisions. So, it
was AI before LLMs, but it was AI to
have decision-making criteria. So, it
would be like I I would make a computer
chess game
that would play while I was playing my
mental chess game
what moves we would make.
And it's completely automated and so on.
But I'm what I'm trying to say is that
reflecting on how does reality really
work
and what do I do when this happens to
that happens is the development of
principles.
And that has been invaluable and it also
makes me see things differently.
Because a lot of people um
and if I didn't do this, I would be
seeing almost as uh
a blizzard of things coming at me.
Instead,
I see everything as another one of
those.
So, let let's say for example,
it it's a species. So, it's like seeing,
okay, that's what kind of species is it
and how do I deal with that species? So,
it's one of those rather than just a lot
of things coming at me. Pattern
recognition of Yeah. But but let's say
if you think of a it's a duck. Okay.
Okay.
Okay, it's a duck. How do I deal with a
duck? Or it's a lion.
Okay, how do I deal with a lion? You're
being very strict.
>> than just a lot of things coming at it.
So, this principle thinking
and seeing it that way had a big effect
on
the quality of my decision-making and
and that helped.
Two questions I had there is to become a
principle thinker, I need to do more
reflection, right?
And then the other thing is
>> Yeah, think about how does
how does the machine, how does how does
life, how do these things work?
So, that's what I mean. Okay. And to
write that down.
>> Uh
yeah, write write down your thoughts. I
find
sometimes what I would do is I'd uh
dictate them into my iPhone. Okay. Okay.
I'd say,
okay,
this is how When you're making a
decision, why did you make that
decision?
So, not just make a decision, but think
about the criteria you're using to make
the decision.
Also, my emotions, my trauma, my
insecurities, my anxiety. Right. And and
you might say when reflecting on that,
is that helpful? Is that harmful?
And what do I do about that? Like, for
example, when what you're referring to
is, yes,
that emotions and the things and all of
those um we you have to understand that
the basically the brain's got two parts
to it, right? It has the logical
part of your brain, reasonable, tries to
reason things through, and that which is
conscious. And then it has the
subconscious mind, which is the
subliminal that is really driving you.
And so when you can
reflect,
okay, how are my emotions entering into
it?
What do I you know, and so on, and you
can think and you can align that. That's
very powerful. And meditation, by the
way, naturally does that, because what
you do when you meditate and maybe a
time's coming I should explain
meditation. Okay, how it works.
Um
what you do is it's a process by which
you sit quietly
and you repeat in your mind what is
called a mantra, which is a sound that
it's a word that has no meaning. Let me
say the most classic example of that
would be om. Okay, so you quietly there
and you go
with your breath you go you know, om.
Om, like that. But you need to be
taught. But anyway, I
om and so when you're doing that
uh because you're om is in your mind or
your mantra's in your mind, you're not
able to have other thoughts.
You'll see yourself wavering between
doing that and staying on the mantra and
then having thoughts.
Um but and then you go back to your
mantra. When you are
uh in the mantra a a lot, then it
disappears.
The sound disappears and you go into
your subconscious mind.
That's what they call transcending.
Transcendental meditation is the type of
meditation I do.
And so you go there and you're not in a
conscious state and you're not in an
subcon- unconscious state. You're in a
conscious state. So it's subconscious
state. It's not unconscious is you're
sleeping. Conscious is that you're awake
like we are. You're in this. So it's a
different state. Like if you hear that
noise, you would hear that noise. It
would be big. And not when you're
sleeping. But when you're in your
subconscious state,
then it's relaxing,
uh it's helpful, and this process helps
to
um
bring
your conscious state and your uncon-
subconscious state into alignment.
In other words, you recognize both
and it calms you down.
It's like a the ninja in the ninja
movies, you know, they're fighting, but
they it seems in slow motion. The camera
shows them in slow motion and they're
doing whatever they're doing along that.
It kind of makes you in that kind of
state of mind so that you're dealing
with what's coming at you in that way.
And so what you referred to is this
um these things that happen, and how you
deal with those is really important to
the quality of your decision making. How
influential was transcendental
meditation in your success? Oh,
enormously successful. I enormously
significant. Ver- very very significant.
In other words, that way of singing
seeing things. And how often And and by
the way, there's you know, there's
uh
I I would say
there's a Serenity Prayer.
The Serenity Prayer
is God give me the serenity to accept
that which I can't control
and give me the power
to control that which I can
and the wisdom to tell the difference.
Okay? And so to how you approach these
things, we're talking about reflection.
You asked me reflection, okay? If you
can reflect in that quality way,
then you deal with anything. And I've
I've dealt with
uh the worst possible thing. Um I lost a
son.
Okay? And I would have rather died. I
would have rather lost everything to
lose my son. So it's the worst possible
thing. And and then to see what it did,
you know, the damage and the harm and
fear from family, terrible.
Okay.
Then to go through that with meditation,
with reflection, and so on,
uh was invaluable. And people have their
own challenges,
but to be able to do it that way,
I I really urge your audience, I urge
you, to uh to learn that. That's very
helpful.
How how did that tragedy change your
your perspective and your your
principles in any way? On life, on on
happiness, on success, on all these
things that you've written about.
Well, it's again I you know, I go above
it
and uh you reflect on the life arc.
And
I realize at that higher level
that that's
what the life arc is like. If you'll In
in all my books there's this
ar- um arcing.
This arcing here. There's a bigger
version of it.
Uh yeah, there's this arcing.
Okay, I don't know if your camera sees
that. Okay, whatever it is. And that's
what life and evolution is like to me,
meaning you make advances.
You will have setbacks.
Okay?
If you reflect well
and you learn how reality works and how
you will deal with it,
you will get past that
and go on.
And that's just what it is. That's just
the way life is.
And if you do that well,
then that's your best possible life. Are
you religious? Are you a religious
person? I'm not religious, but I'm
spiritual. Okay. The Dalai Lama, who I
had the pleasure of meeting, told me uh
and I I agree with
um that religions are typically
um a mix
between superstitions
and spirituality. There's half of it is
that element that nobody knows, but
there is
the way people should deal with each
other.
There is karma.
Okay? All religions
there's a part of them
that says
do unto others as you would have them do
unto you, or what goes around comes
around. And then you get to the
particulars, okay? And it is true
that if we work well together,
that
even little things I can do to help you
can make a big difference in your life.
And little things that you can do to
help me make a the big difference in my
our lives.
And so it's practical and it is also
joyous.
Okay? That creates a relationship. And
we talked earlier about how that
meaningful relationship is like the
source of great happiness. But when you
have a community and you do that, you
have a better society. And almost all
religions will tell you that. There'll
be elements of those.
And when I believe in spirituality, what
I also mean is
um we're all part of this greater whole.
Okay?
We're all part of the greater whole. And
if you could see yourself as part of the
greater whole
and love the greater whole uh and
whatever,
that is spirituality, really, okay? And
so I will go through my life arc,
okay? And I will die, and I'm
comfortable with that, okay? In that,
okay, it's all
part of the greater whole you know, nat-
nature and whatever it is. That's true.
I can't tell you about other things, but
I do believe in the things I just told
you.
When it comes to living a a successful
life, you we've talked about having
dreams and understanding your nature and
aspiring for things and then
understanding reality, which
transcendental meditation's a great
mechanism and vehicle to do.
Um and in your in your book about a
successful life, you talk about plus
determination.
Plus determination.
Hard work.
If I want to be a successful
man or woman,
how important do you think hard work is?
Well, gives you power. It's very
important, right? Some people some
people, you know,
I'm not saying they want to choose it,
but the iron- the irony of things is
there are first order consequences and
there are second order consequences.
This is like a rule of life, okay? And
most of the time the first order
consequences,
whether they're
likable or not,
has the opposite second quarter
second order consequences. So what I
mean by that is
like eating
or exercising, okay?
Eat the foods you like,
second order consequence is probably not
going to be good.
Um
you know, I don't want to exercise.
Um the second order consequences won't
be as good, okay?
Working hard,
which gives you strength. Where does
strength come from? I mean
strength comes from working hard.
So, working hard will will give you
power.
Power will make things easier and make
things better.
That's just the way it is.
And being open-minded while you do it?
Something that was really important to
you.
>> Yeah.
I say
importance of being open-minded and
assertive at the same time.
Um
I I
I watch
people becoming so
tied to their own opinions.
Like this is the greatest tragedy of
mankind.
The greatest tragedy of mankind cuz it's
so easily can be fixed
is
holding a strong opinion
that is wrong
that you
could have made right
better
if you were open to learning more. If
you were said I want to be stress
tested. I want my thinking to be stress
tested. I want to make sure that I'm
making the better decision. And so I'll
be challenged. But a lot of people view
that challenging like a fight.
It's not a fight. If somebody holds a
different opinion, it should prompt a
curiosity.
You know, I don't know. Am I wrong or is
they wrong? It's a 50% chance. I don't
know. Maybe I'm wrong.
So, it should prompt curiosity and an
exchange to try to make sure that you're
seeing the whole picture and so on. But
subliminal instincts are I'm going to
stick with it and I'm going to have a
fight.
That's the problem.
Because there's too much on the line for
so many people to to It's subliminal.
It's It's It just goes back to the mind
thinking
that the intellectual challenge is a
fight.
And it's egotistical, you know, ego.
I must be right. As an As an investor
and entrepreneur, that's obviously
particularly important because
you're constantly dealing with new
information and feedback which you need
to
be flexible.
>> That was one of the two things that
changed my
uh
my my my whole direction and made me
successful. I get I can't explain it if
you want.
>> Please.
19
79 and 80.
I had calculated that American banks
had lent more money to foreign countries
that they were going to be able to pay
back and that we were going to have a
debt crisis.
Very controversial point of view. In
August of
1982,
Mexico defaulted on its debts.
And over the next decade, many other
countries did and it caused bank
problems. However,
at that time, I thought things were
going to get bad and that was the exact
bottom in the stock market, August 1982.
So, I couldn't have been more wrong.
I
lost money for me. I lost money for the
clients. I lost money. I was so broke
that I had to borrow $4,000 from my dad
to help to pay for family bills because
I was faced with the choice, what am I
going to do?
And And do I
Do I go back to
work on Wall Street, get a
uh
tie, get on the train and go back that
which is again not in my nature or
whatever. And And two things changed me.
Okay, reflection.
First of all
um I learned what we were just talking
about.
I learned humility.
A fear of being wrong.
And open-mindedness.
So, I wanted the smartest people who
could I could find to stress test my
opinions.
Cuz I'm always realized I could be
wrong.
And then I learned how to diversify my
bets so that I could dramatically reduce
my risk without reducing my returns.
Okay, that was the bottom.
Okay, from that point all the way over,
that following those principles took me
to the biggest hedge fund in the world,
the most successful and so on cuz I
applied it to the market, applied it to
what we did and so on. So, that notion
of reflection and then how do you deal
with what reality is like and then, you
know, okay, the Learn Learn radical
open-mindedness. In other words, unlike
there's a principle in the book, you
have to take in before you put out.
Or that um
decision-making is a two-step process.
First, take in, then decide.
Okay? So, yes, open-mindedness
you don't doesn't in any way minimize
your ability to decide.
So, you still have the freedom to
decide, but it's crazy not to be
open-minded.
You recognize that the biggest threat to
good decision-making is harmful emotions
and that two-step process is first learn
and then make the decision, which is
funny cuz it sounds simple. But when you
said it, I think about all the worst
decisions I've ever made in business and
I missed step one.
I forgot to I forgot to take a minute
and do the evidence gathering or the
like information gathering process.
>> Yeah, just smart people care about your
decision. Say stress test me.
Why don't we do that?
That ego
and also instinct that that's a fight.
Is there any advice you would give me on
becoming a better decision-maker? So, I
have a fund, I have many businesses. Is
there any sort of practical
simple foundations of becoming a better
decision-maker that we haven't talked
about? Get smart people to interrogate
my thinking.
Um be open-minded.
I think we've talked about almost all of
them. Um
I think then you have to then know about
how to leverage yourself.
Okay? In other words, as you do more and
more
uh how do you do more and more when your
brain has a capacity limit?
Okay? And there's only certain number of
hours in the day or the week. Okay? You
have to know how to do that.
>> Is that focus or is that something
No.
It's knowing how to do it through
others.
Okay?
It's knowing how to pick others and
orchestrate we- well. It's like uh
running a symphony or whatever. Okay?
Get the best players.
Okay, when I say you know, um good
character and good capabilities
and orchestrate them well.
And then provide that um that leverage.
Like I um
when I was doing the most, I had 30
direct reports.
Whatever the number is, it's only at
it's the process is how to get more out
of a minute or a day.
Not how to work harder.
Okay? It's how to leverage yourself. And
you're going to leverage yourself by
picking the right people who you can
trust. They're not going to screw you.
They're going to operate in your
interest and they're going to be
capable. And so, a lot of people, what
you can do is you can deal with them and
then you can say like I I would deal
with them on this 30 reports.
I'd have maybe um
an hour meeting with them once every 2
weeks.
And And they'd go off and do things.
And when you do that, you can even find
people who are much better at things
than you would be if you did them.
Because if you have these different
things
okay, you better because otherwise you
don't have the capacity.
You have these two
key challenges to to overcome as an
which is find these great capable people
that have great character and then like
bind them with the right culture to make
sure that they do the best work. Right.
And And in other words
it's meaningful work and meaningful
relationships
through radical truthfulness and radical
transparency.
Radical truthfulness and transparency.
Okay. First, if you can have um
meaningful
work and meaningful relationships, the
people are on the mission with you.
Wow, that's fantastic. But
y-
You better be truthful and transparent.
That'll show that you're honest and you
better because you have to get a truth
including what people are bad at
and how to deal with all those things.
How Uh and And most people hide them.
They don't bring them out into the open.
Okay? They'll Everybody's worried about
hurting each other's feelings or
you know, uh that. And then so they're
not honest with each other.
And And they're That's the barrier. You
We talked about the barrier of
disagreement. There's It's like that.
Okay, um you know, uh I don't know. Are
you good at that? Are you striking out?
If you're striking out and what is it?
How do we deal with it? You better talk
about that clearly cuz you need to have
an A team of players. You know, you have
to work yourself so that your team is an
A team of players who are tight. How did
you do that Bridgewater? How did you
make people honest?
Uh well, uh fir- first of all, um I had
a policy, talk behind another person's
back
um critically.
That happens three times, you're out.
And then I would have radical
transparency so everybody could see
everything.
So, you could see why I'm making
decisions that I would reflect.
But the main thing
is, you know, you know if it's happening
or not.
Okay? And I made that comfortable
because that's un- ordinarily
uncomfortable.
We talked about the fact that there's an
intellectual you and there's an
emotional subliminal you. Okay, I made
them understand like if I had a team, a
football team,
and so on,
that this is going to be better for the
team, it's going to be better for you
and you'll have your evolution because
what do you want to have dishonesty? Do
you want people to think one thing about
you and really say something different?
How is that going to work? So, there's
an intellectual
okay, we believe it. And then also by
having the meaningful relationships. I
mean,
I'm not I don't force them. I create a
culture of meaningful relationships so
that they
have known each other for a long time.
They go go to each others parties or
they go to each others
their are funerals, there are baby
showers, there are these things. Not
that anybody's
I I created uh clubs. I said any club
that you want to create that has more
than
20 people, um whatever it is up to $500
per person, I'll pay for half.
So, so I don't care what it is. If it's
play softball or play chess or whatever
it is that you're enjoying each other's
company or you want to go to
ball games or something. I don't care
what it is. I'll pay for half up to that
up to $500. So, I to
nobody has obligations to or something.
But if I have that kind of meaningful
relationships, so you can talk honestly
with each other.
I found that very helpful. And you built
a famously built an idea meritocracy,
which in my understanding means where
the best idea ends up winning in the
company versus just your idea because
you're the most powerful person in the
business.
>> Right. I mean, I want what do I want? I
want the best idea to win. This sounds
simple but but again, it's it's not how
businesses operate. One of the
fascinations I've always had is that
when businesses get bigger and they have
more intellectual horsepower by I mean,
if you just added up how many brains
they had, they sometimes get less
innovative and
it it feels like the the CEO
>> Well, because they become more more
bureaucratic and more fragmented. Yeah.
Okay, there's I found it to be true and
it's well established fact that if you
get a group of people past a certain
size, which is 75 to 100 people,
um they don't know each other. Okay,
they they they start to become different
and then
you lose those relationships, you lose a
lot and so on. I found it because I
at the holiday season every year, what I
would do is I would write everybody
notes, long notes in in their cards and
I would pick an individualized holiday
gift for them. And when it got to be the
67 people, I remember the year, it broke
my back. I mean, I I just couldn't do
it. Okay, and I realized that at that
point, I was
going into another frame. Okay, and so
it's a organizational reality that you
can keep that group and then what you
have to do is then you have different
those different areas and you have to
create cohesiveness between those
different and
cohesiveness, common mission and how do
you do that between that? So, like for
example, when we'd have our holiday
party, where it used to be everybody
would be
you know, sort of go in and you have a
holiday party and everybody together.
What I found out is we had a big arena
that we would go to and I'd have both.
I'd have okay,
that department is in that area and
whatever and then they come out and they
all mingle together and so on. So,
there's an organizational
thing that you've got to realize in
terms of culture and and management of
that.
>> It's like villages in a city, I guess.
Like you basically keep build the
villages and then
>> Good example, yeah. Interesting. Okay.
And yeah, yeah, all media companies are
at that exact point now. It's at it's at
that 90 90 odd people.
>> Okay, there you are.
>> you said 75 to 100, I was like, ah
interesting.
>> Yeah. I was thinking about all the
things I should be doing now to
counteract some of those adverse effects
of the culture splintering or
relationships breaking down, but I guess
you've described it there. Uh
interesting. And I have to say, one of
the things that I found to be most I'm
33 years old. I just turned 33 last
week.
It's crazy how
how often people say that hiring is the
most important thing. Yet when you look
at how what entrepreneurs are spending
their time on, it's usually like the
product, the marketing, etc. And it's
maybe like one or two hours in some
cases if they're lucky on finding truly
exceptional people. They often just
outsource it to someone else, the
recruitment team.
When you think back through your career,
how important was it to find truly
exceptional people? Of course. Well, I
systematized it. First of all,
um I think
that anything I do or one does can be
systematized. So, I would think what are
the personalities, what are the
backgrounds of the people that I'm
hiring, what are the choices, how do I
specify it? And I've and I got it by
also maintaining a lot of data with
people. There's um there's a TED Talk I
did that uh explains how like data
everybody's going around and they're
operating in a certain way. So, I know
what people are like. If you know what
people are like, you know what you can
expect of them. And then I would then
say uh in a very data way, those people
who are successful in these jobs have
the following attributes
that would create a job spec,
specifications for that type of job. So,
I I knew that in that type of job, there
would be that type of person I'm looking
for. Mhm. Okay, yeah. What works? They
work. Okay, data. And then I would find
that would be my job spec. And and so we
had the systems and then we had some
people who were responsible for doing
that because you're right, it takes
time. How can I interview all those
people and so on. But who can you trust?
And you're operating that way and then
evaluation process doesn't stop when you
hire them.
Okay, the evaluation process continues
from that moment and you still learn
more about what they're like and you do
that same process and still think would
I still have hired them?
And and if I wouldn't have hired them
in the first place, then they shouldn't
be there. And so I have a process and
people, people and process. Do people
change after a certain point? So, if you
find someone in 6 months, in 12 months
and they haven't changed, is it worth
giving them another year? Is it worth a
performance review? I found out that
for me, the big question mostly, there
were two big questions, but um
the big question is how do you adapt to
my culture?
And that would take about 18 months to
find out. Like, can you speak honestly
about what can we have thoughtful
disagreement? Do you like this
evolutionary process where you're
challenged and all of this kind of
thing? That culture. That'd take about
18 months. And then roughly speaking,
then
learning about the people,
their strengths and weaknesses,
would take 18 months to 2 years, maybe
something along those lines.
And so then, you know, you could pretty
much decide. But always being open every
day by day so nobody's surprised that
you're always talking about things, you
know, how's it going?
Make sure you keep what I'm about to say
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AI is a bit of an alien that seems to
have entered the room um
and has is going to change Every every
every industry. Great.
Yeah. I can't tell if you're being
sarcastic. No.
Truly. If you are
working with it, controlling it, if it's
a good partner, to be able to get a lot
of leverage, it's
truly fantastic. As I said, in almost
everything I did,
we had the crit criteria, we had the
systematized, would you do that, would
you not do that, how to you know, how
does reality work, what are the
principles. And And so, it's a fantastic
leveraging. Like I described, you know,
I would make the decision-making model,
like the computer chess game that would
make it. Well, now it's better than
ever, those those resources. So, it
leverages you enormously. What about
having a strong middle? We talked about
having a strong sort of economic
political middle. Political middle,
yeah. Yeah.
Is it going to drive inequality?
>> Yes, it's going to That's like all good
like all things, it's going to be
it has good things and bad things, and
we were talking, let's say, first about
managing and doing that. I think in
managing and knowing what people are
like and how they're all it's going to
be very very valuable, mostly very
valuable. In terms of changing
there will be
a limited number of winners and a bunch
of losers, and I think it's going to
create much greater polarity, which as
we're seeing
um
through the system the ways that we
talked about, you know, that top 1 to
10% benefiting a lot and then
so that will be a a dividing
a force, I think. It's going to going to
pose the question with robotics
accelerating at the speed of of light
with Optimus and Tesla and all the
things they're doing and all these other
companies, humanoid robots, and then
with artificial intelligence
having trillions of dollars plowed into
it and accelerating. We're in this crazy
boom at the moment.
With these two things combining, you're
going to be able to have a humanoid
robot who that can navigate human
spaces, but is also smarter than I am.
Lawyers, accountants,
uh
lots of people in the medical
profession. Why would you Why would one
need them
if we had a humanoid robot that is
smarter than all of us and has a PhD in
everything? Well, we will not need a lot
of those jobs for the reasons that
you're saying. Okay.
And then the question is what our
society does.
And what do you think we do in such a
world?
I think we fight over about what we do,
unfortunately. Um
but as I say,
I don't think we have escaped a world
where
most people
to have a healthy society, most people
have to be productive
and prosperous. I don't I I think people
need to be Now, certainly
there and there certainly needs to be a
redistribution
policy. I don't think that's just a
redistribution of money policy
because uselessness and money may not be
a great combination.
So, I think that you have that has to be
figured out, and the question is whether
we're too fragmented
to figure that out and agree on it, and
I'm worried about that.
Interesting times. Is there any
historical precedents for this in your
view? Someone that knows history. Is
there any historical precedents for
something like AI and robotics
converging?
>> Well, um
through
um evolution,
we have gone from
a period of time which was called the
Dark Ages or the Agricultural Age
in which basically
there was land, it's agricultural and so
on, and people were treated and they
were essentially like oxen, most people.
And then there were the landowners who
were nobles, and then there were the
royalty who were the families that
control most things and so on. And then
in history, with the
invention of the printing press, there
became more knowledge
um and more intelligence,
and we see an evolution in which
you start to see new ages emerge and
thinking emerge and power change. And I
won't take you through the whole
history, but you start to see that
individuals can be clever enough to earn
money that So, you begin the Age of
Exploration and the Industrial
Revolutions in which machines replaced
people.
And it's almost like they first replaced
them physically, that
In other words, they didn't have they
were not like oxen doing the thing, so
you get a tractor or something, and it
don't and it's almost like from the body
up in terms of the mind. And so, you've
seen that evolution through time and the
rise of intelligence in its various
forms go through this arc
of rising in intelligence, and now you
see that intelligence matters more than
anything, okay? It matters more than
money, it matters more than anything
because intelligence will attract people
among those with money to invest in the
the development of that. And so, we have
seen this arc through history develop in
that way, right? And we've seen people
replaced. Now, the question is, as we
get higher and higher in thinking, okay,
whether we've run out of capacity to
shift or whether we're just going to be
totally replaced. Our muscles have been
totally replaced, but okay, as this is
happening, our best thinking may be
totally replaced, and we're going to
have to deal with that question.
Are you hopeful?
I'm excited.
I'm
I think it all comes down to human
nature. Okay. I'm excited in that
fast forward, make the most of it,
jump on it, woo, you know, I'm excited.
I've also watched
the evolution of species.
Almost all species have come and gone
for certain reasons. And they one of the
reasons
that they come have come and gone is
because almost their strengths are not
in all respects great strengths. You can
use these things, intelligence, to your
detriment.
And I believe that um the things that
these technologies and so on bring us,
while very important, extends life
expectancy and all of that,
is not important as important as human
nature.
And so, if you were to go back in time
and were different societies, do you
have happier societies? Is the
well-being greater?
Okay. So, you can go 50 years ago, and
you might say the well-being is greater
50 years ago, not in all ways, not in
in many ways the technologies and and
the consequences of those are much
better, but you may have had a better
life, and it's human nature of how
people are going to deal with each
other. So, I think the real question is
can people rise above
this?
And and which it goes back to the
spirituality question, can people then
rise above it so that they think of the
collective good, and they think of, you
know, collectively, how do we make the
best, and also karma, you know, in other
words,
the realization that if I help you in
ways that can be so simple for me to
help you and make such a big difference
in your life, and you do the same, and
we have win-win relationships, it'll be
good, but if we don't do that, and I
worry about human nature, and I worry
about this process. Especially when
you've got geopolitical
tensions and It's because of human
nature.
I've had a lot of conversations on the
podcast about AI, and I just can't seem
to get to my own solid conclusion about
this, because when I look at human
nature, as you say, I see greed, I see
power hunger, status. Yeah, some
problems you just just accept the fact
that you may not be able to be confident
of the meta prediction in the future, so
it'll always be a question, and just get
on with the fact of using it for
yourself in the best way that works for
you. That's what I'm doing.
We have a closing tradition on this
podcast where the last guest leaves a
question for the next, not knowing who
they're leaving it for.
You know this person.
Um
because I've seen you with them. Um the
question they left for you is what is a
book or books
that you've recommended or gifted more
than others, and why?
Can't say your own, but I won't. Uh
right.
Um
There are three books.
There's a book on evolution but written
by Richard Dawkins.
Uh River from
Eden, I think it's called.
Then a book by
um
Will and Ariel Durant, which are the
maybe the greatest historians
in time,
and it's called Lessons from History.
It's a very short book. I think it's 104
pages. They wrote massive amounts about
5,000 years of history and so on and
they sort of condensed their lessons,
lessons from history.
And then
um
Joseph Campbell's The Hero's Journey.
Is it the the hero with a thousand
faces?
>> Yes, that's it. Hero with a thousand
faces. And why Dawkins book? Why did you
say that one?
>> Oh, he understands evolution.
Everything is evolving.
Okay, all species. Man is one of 10,000
species.
I mean and they're and they're all
structured similarly. There's a
structure. They you know, like um two
eyes, uh a brain that has a structure to
it um that and the same parts of the
brain. There's the cerebrum, the
cerebellum, the prefrontal cortex.
There's this structure that makes you
think differently and and so on. There's
evolution. There's all evolution. So,
it's not just limited to
um human evolution or what humans are
like. It's the force of evolution. Man
is only
um
mankind's only about 200,000 years old.
That's in history, that's short, okay?
And and the species and all species
evolve, okay? And it's very interesting.
So, that's you know, that's what his
books are about and you know, I think
they're very good. And Joseph Campbell's
The Hero's Journey, the hero with a
thousand faces.
>> it's about human nature and and the
evolution of life and the life journey
that we're talking about. What I find so
interesting, Ray, is how you draw on
principles from other domains, whether
it's from nature or biology as you were
talking about there
to tie in to your work in business and
investing and everything else and life
and happiness. And it really says
something to me about
being more eclectic and be broadly
curious in order to be successful in my
modern Well, I I yeah, I just
see I I don't is that to me maybe too
much of a specialist that kind of
mentality, but the world is being
interrelated to these things. If you
want to understand how reality works,
um you can't say I'm going to be just a
specialist.
I mean these are all affected by each
other. Mhm.
Thank you so much for write for writing
these books.
They are iconic. And uh the YouTube that
explain these these books are iconic. I
don't know who you have on your team
that makes the animations and pulls it
all together, but not only is the
content
so important because they are
principles, so they're enduring through
time, but they're so unbelievably
accessible to all people of all ages.
And if if you if people haven't read
this book, I'd be shocked, but um all of
these books are fantastic. The this book
Principles by Ray Dalio, which I'm going
to link all of them below for anyone
that wants to read them. I suggest you
read them all.
Um will be formative in your life even
if you're not interested in business or
investing because as as it says in the
book, they're principles and the
the economy affects us all in ways that
we might not understand. We're all
trying to be successful or happy in our
own right and that that's interwoven
into all of these books. So, thank you.
I hope you write more books.
>> Well, I and thank you because yeah, I'm
at a stage in my life. This is a
symbiotic relationship, otherwise we
wouldn't be here. Okay? And my um
my benefit is that I want to pass along
these things and we're doing it together
and I have found and it's joyous to me
to know that these things have made a
big difference in people's lives. People
come up to me and they say thank you for
the difference you've made and you know,
at this stage in my life, that's what I
want to do. I think that's an
understatement. I think it's had a
profound impact. In fact, every person I
know, all of my best friends have taken
something from your work, which has had
a profound impact on their
decision-making, which has led them to
be happier in some way. And when I told
my friends that I was interviewing you,
I'm interviewing 16 people while I'm in
New York over the over the next month.
When I told my friends, my best friends
in the world that I'm interviewing you,
all of them were telling me to pass on a
message of thanks because there's
something in one of these books that's
helped them and they're all young people
in that first season of their life and
there's there's something in all of
these books that's um pushed them closer
to their success and their happiness.
So, thank you for on behalf of me cuz
you've had a profound impact on me, but
thank
>> Thank you for giving me that joy.
I know I mean you know that. Thank you.
I really really mean that. Thank you so
much, Ray.
Ask follow-up questions or revisit key timestamps.
Ray Dalio discusses his principles for navigating life and business, emphasizing the importance of understanding long-term cycles in history and economics. He identifies five key forces that drive these cycles: debt, internal social conflict, geopolitical tensions, nature, and technological innovation. Dalio advocates for a pragmatic approach, suggesting individuals build financial strength, remain open-minded, and cultivate meaningful work and relationships. He also explains the role of meditation in fostering reflection and personal evolution, highlighting the value of treating life as a continuous learning process.
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