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Ray Dalio: We’re Heading Into Very, Very Dark Times! America & The UK’s Decline Is Coming!

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Ray Dalio: We’re Heading Into Very, Very Dark Times! America & The UK’s Decline Is Coming!

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2469 segments

0:00

Pay attention. Pain plus reflection

0:03

equals progress. And from that

0:05

principle, my company became the largest

0:07

hedge fund in the world.

0:08

>> Managing how much?

0:09

>> 150 billion dollars. But I learned that

0:12

history of things that never happened in

0:14

my lifetime before were important things

0:16

to understand in order to predict the

0:18

future. And we can get into that if you

0:20

want.

0:20

>> Please. So Ray Dalio is the legendary

0:23

billionaire investor

0:25

>> who decoded the cycles of human history

0:27

to predict financial crashes, build the

0:29

world's largest hedge fund, and now to

0:31

warn us about what lies ahead. Are you

0:34

optimistic about the future of the UK?

0:36

No. What about the United States? No.

0:38

Why? Okay. In order to bet on what's

0:39

going to happen on the global economy, I

0:42

learned that there's five big forces

0:44

that create a big cycle that's repeated

0:46

through history, which lasts about 80

0:48

years. The first is the money debt force

0:51

that creates wealth and opportunities

0:53

gaps. And it's connected to the second

0:55

force, the internal conflict where you

0:58

don't trust the system, causing wars

1:01

between the left and the right. And it's

1:02

not easy answers like tax the rich. And

1:05

we can get into that. But the third is

1:07

geopolitical force. In other words,

1:09

international conflict. Then there's

1:12

acts of nature. And then number five is

1:14

man's inventiveness, particularly of new

1:16

technologies. Now, the question is who

1:19

wins the technology war because the

1:21

winner of that determine how the new

1:23

world order works. Is it something to be

1:25

concerned about?

1:26

>> No. The question is how you as an

1:28

individual handle it. How do I as an

1:30

individual handle it? So there's

1:32

building your financial strength,

1:33

flexibility, importance of being

1:35

open-minded, and how to get more out of

1:37

the minute, not how to work harder. And

1:40

I really urge your audience to learn all

1:42

of this. So, first of all,

1:45

I see messages all the time in the

1:46

comment section that some of you didn't

1:48

realize you didn't subscribe. So, if you

1:50

could do me a favor and double-check if

1:51

you're a subscriber to this channel,

1:52

that would be tremendously appreciated.

1:54

It's the simple, it's the free thing

1:56

that anybody that watches this show

1:57

frequently can do to help us here to

1:59

keep everything going in this show in

2:01

the trajectory it's on. So, please do

2:03

double-check if you subscribed. And

2:04

thank you so much because in a strange

2:06

way you are you're part of our history

2:09

and you're on this journey with us and I

2:10

appreciate you for that. So, yeah, thank

2:12

you.

2:16

Ray,

2:18

I I want to describe to you who's

2:19

listening right now. And the question I

2:21

have for you is what is the most

2:23

important thing that this persona of

2:26

person should be thinking about at the

2:29

highest level right now. So, the the

2:30

person that's listening is someone who

2:34

is intent on improving their life.

2:35

They're they're really interested in

2:36

business, potentially starting their own

2:37

business. They they care about where

2:40

they're investing their their time and

2:43

energy, and also where they're setting

2:45

up their home based on in terms of

2:48

geography.

2:49

They are aspiring to accomplish some

2:51

goal. They're probably between the age

2:52

of 18 and

2:55

50 predominantly.

2:57

And they are very very interested in

2:59

understanding what's happening in the

3:00

world that feels incredibly

3:03

scary,

3:04

fast-paced, and uncertain at the moment.

3:08

This is a very difficult question. But

3:10

if anyone I was going to ask anyone, it

3:11

would have to be you.

3:13

What what's one of the first things they

3:14

should be considering at this moment to

3:16

safeguard their future, their family,

3:17

their finances? I don't think it's a

3:18

difficult question. I um

3:21

I think it's it's very clear. They have

3:23

to understand how the life cycle works.

3:26

Okay. They have to understand how it

3:29

works. We were just talking before and

3:32

and on the book and there was the arc of

3:34

the life cycle, right? And you have to

3:36

understand that you're on an adventurous

3:39

journey, okay? And you have a certain

3:42

nature,

3:43

you know, those qualities that make make

3:45

you have your preferences and so on. And

3:49

then you're going after the things that

3:52

you like and you're learning and it's

3:55

going to have the ups and downs and so

3:57

on. And how you approach that. So, you

4:00

asked from the higher level if I'm

4:02

looking down, you know, like that life

4:04

cycle, that arc, what's that journey

4:07

like?

4:08

How do you approach it? You know, what

4:11

are your principles? How do you even

4:13

learn how to approach it? That's why

4:14

we're having these conversations, right?

4:16

So, that's clear.

4:18

You know, what's your nature?

4:20

How's the journey?

4:22

How do you find the path that's suitable

4:24

to your nature?

4:26

And then you'll go down that path and

4:28

you'll discover

4:30

and you'll evolve.

4:31

What's that like? That's what they need

4:34

to know. You said what's your nature.

4:36

What do you mean by nature?

4:37

>> People are born with and then also their

4:39

environment creates their different

4:41

nature, you know? We have our

4:43

preferences, our inclinations. We think

4:46

in a certain way. You chose to be

4:49

entrepreneurial, okay? You're living out

4:52

your nature, okay? This isn't for

4:54

somebody else. You know, some people

4:56

have a different nature, okay? They

4:58

would like to have the stability of a

5:00

job and clarity and so on. So, when you

5:03

have your nature, you want to know that

5:06

and then find the path that is going to

5:08

be good for your nature. Then there's

5:11

the particular tactical stuff. So, if

5:13

you would ask me, should I be in the UK

5:15

or should I be in the US? Well, that

5:18

depends on a lot of things, but that's a

5:19

tactical question. So, if I want to be

5:21

an entrepreneur and I want to build a

5:22

technology company, do you think I

5:24

should be in the UK or the US? I think

5:27

you should be in the US. Why? The US has

5:29

a culture of

5:32

um entrepreneurship, inventiveness.

5:35

There's a whole different culture like

5:36

in Europe, generally speaking, and in

5:39

and and in the UK. There's an

5:40

establishment culture, right? And it

5:43

here um you could be 25, have a blue

5:48

streak in your hair, and have the

5:51

talent, but if you got the talent to

5:53

pull it off, you can get the resources

5:55

and you can be an entrepreneur. It's

5:57

There's a culture of that that means

6:00

that it's happening more. That's why you

6:01

even see the differences in the

6:03

economies, okay? Where is the

6:05

inventiveness really happening? Okay?

6:08

It's happening here. So, I would say if

6:11

you want to be an entrepreneur, this is

6:13

an environment that's particularly

6:14

conducive to being an entrepreneur.

6:17

So, what is your honest perspective

6:18

about the UK at the moment? The UK has a

6:21

financial problem. Uh the government has

6:23

a debt problem. It doesn't have enough

6:26

money for what it wants to do and what

6:28

it can do. And so, what you see is the

6:32

non-dom problem, people moving, and so

6:35

and so forth. And throughout history,

6:38

when you have these sorts of things,

6:40

then there's great clashes in people,

6:43

okay? And the UK has been in decline

6:46

since the war.

6:47

Even the development of the capital

6:49

markets, can you raise capital there?

6:52

All of these things are much worse

6:56

than they are in the United States.

6:59

And it leads to clashes, as you said. Of

7:00

course, you know, there are five big

7:02

forces

7:04

that create a big cycle

7:06

that lasts

7:08

about 80 years, give or take 50, let's

7:12

say. And the five big forces are There's

7:15

a money

7:17

debt economy force, okay? Debts are

7:21

spending power. So, what happens is when

7:23

you give somebody credit, they can

7:25

spend.

7:26

And then but it also produces debt. And

7:29

debt has to be paid back. And so, what

7:33

happens is if there's not enough income

7:35

to pay back the debt,

7:37

then you have

7:39

um debt rising relative to income. It

7:42

squeezes out spending. People don't want

7:44

to hold the debt assets and so on. The

7:47

UK is going through that and has gone

7:49

through that and it's connected to the

7:51

second force. And we're all going

7:52

through this in varying degrees. The

7:54

second force is the internal political

7:57

and social

7:58

force. In other words, like between the

8:01

left and the right with wealth gaps and

8:04

opportunities gaps. We have big wealth

8:06

and opportunities gaps. So, when you

8:08

have big wealth and opportunities gaps,

8:11

there's conflict. Okay, conflict between

8:14

the left and the right. And when you get

8:16

to the situation where you don't believe

8:19

the system is working for you and you

8:20

don't trust the system, then there are

8:23

wars. There are internal conflicts

8:26

over over that and so on. So, the third

8:29

force is the geopolitical force. In

8:32

other words,

8:34

there's a cycle that usually goes from

8:37

one big war to another big war. So, the

8:40

last war ended in 1945,

8:43

'44, and we began a new order in 1945.

8:45

And the way that works is that the

8:47

winners of the war determine how the

8:50

world order works.

8:52

They draw borders. They say, "Here's how

8:54

it's going to work." And that's the new

8:56

order, okay? And that continues until

9:00

there's a rising power challenging an

9:02

existing power in the existing world

9:04

order, which typically is deteriorating

9:06

at that time. And then you have

9:08

international conflict, okay? These

9:10

orders, there's a monetary order, they

9:13

all break down. There's an in- internal

9:16

political order, they all break down.

9:19

And and there's a geopolitical order.

9:21

They all have this conflict and they

9:22

work together. The fourth force it

9:25

throughout history has been acts of

9:27

nature. Droughts, floods, and pandemics,

9:29

for example, have killed more people

9:31

than wars.

9:33

And acts of nature Nature has a big

9:36

effect. And then number five force is

9:39

man's inventiveness, particularly of new

9:41

technologies.

9:43

Okay? Because if you see that

9:45

inventiveness, that has raised per

9:48

capita incomes, GDP per capita, any

9:50

measures of the living standards over a

9:52

period of time and and so on. But it is

9:55

also related to the first four that I

9:57

said. Those four four forces interact.

10:00

Now, when we go back to your UK case,

10:03

okay, they have a financial problem.

10:06

They and almost every country now is

10:09

dealing with more of that internal

10:11

political problem.

10:14

For the same reasons. Wealth gaps,

10:16

opportunities gaps, what do we do, who's

10:18

got the power, I don't trust the system

10:20

kind of thing. Okay, number three is we

10:23

are certainly in an international great

10:26

powers conflict, right? And it certainly

10:29

affects Europe and the UK as we're

10:32

dealing with not only the Ukraine

10:34

situation, but the Russian situation.

10:36

And what does that mean? And that

10:38

relates to the money thing because,

10:40

okay, where's the money coming from to

10:42

have defense or military expenditures

10:44

and so on and so forth. So, that

10:46

matters, right? The geopolitical

10:48

matters, climate certainly matters, and

10:50

then of course technology, man's

10:52

inventiveness.

10:54

So, everything can be looked through at

10:55

through that lens.

10:57

And so, what does this mean for the UK

11:00

if all other countries are going through

11:02

this as well? Doesn't it just mean that

11:03

all countries are going to suffer

11:04

equally? No, no, no, because they're not

11:07

all equal. Okay, some are more in debt

11:09

than others. Okay, some people are more

11:13

willing to hold their debt than others.

11:17

Some means they they have more

11:18

resources, some are bigger and more

11:21

powerful, some are less powerful.

11:23

They're different, okay? They're all

11:25

going in different conditions. Some

11:26

countries have surpluses, some

11:28

countries, you know, are not in the

11:30

middle of where they're just having a

11:32

war.

11:33

Are you optimistic about the the future

11:35

of the UK at the moment?

11:38

No.

11:40

No.

11:43

Because it has high debt, it has the

11:45

social internal conflict, it has it's

11:47

affected by the geopolitical factors.

11:49

And in terms of inventiveness, it

11:51

doesn't have the culture

11:53

that other countries have like like the

11:54

US.

11:55

>> Is that it?

11:55

>> Yes, the cult culture and the capital

11:58

markets to support that at a scale that

12:00

it needs to be supported to play

12:03

seriously in the game. And for anyone

12:05

that doesn't know what capital markets

12:06

mean, basically the invest markets,

12:08

isn't it a simple way of saying

12:09

>> Well, I mean, it gets you the money. In

12:11

other words, you're a guy behind, you

12:12

know, what happens is

12:14

um

12:15

we have to enable people.

12:17

Okay, what what works

12:19

is finding great people, talented

12:22

people, and identifying

12:25

those who you want to bet on.

12:27

And enabling them.

12:29

And that works that's the most important

12:31

force, much more important than money.

12:34

Okay, because you could see

12:37

who's got the money and power and where

12:38

did they come from? Where did Nvidia

12:40

come from?

12:41

Where did they all come from? Okay,

12:43

they're guys like you, entrepreneur in a

12:46

sense, who's been enabled. Okay, by

12:49

because you have the talent and people

12:51

want to bet on you and that's the

12:52

capital market, so they give you money

12:54

to help enable you because they want to

12:56

bet on you and then good things happen.

12:59

But are you are you optimistic about the

13:01

United States at the moment? The United

13:03

States is very much a big picture. No, I

13:05

think it's very much in this issue. This

13:08

So, if I go down my list, it definitely

13:11

has this

13:12

debt money economy problem. We can get

13:15

into that, okay? It definitely has the

13:18

internal conflict power in which there

13:21

is a fight between the left, you know,

13:24

the hard left and the right due to

13:26

wealth and values gaps and people not

13:28

believing that the system will work for

13:30

them. And so, democracy is at risk

13:34

because they don't believe the they're

13:36

not going to follow the rules in the

13:38

sense they don't believe the rules are

13:39

going to

13:40

number three, it's of course the leading

13:44

one side in this great power conflict of

13:46

the world, right? In other words, yes,

13:49

between the United States and the one

13:52

side, let's say, and China and the

13:54

allies their allies on the other side. I

13:56

mean, in the news you just saw the

13:58

meetings of Xi, Putin, Modi and that

14:02

group over there walking down, you know,

14:04

and okay. So, now it should be pretty

14:07

clear how the sides are lining up.

14:10

Okay, you it's always better to be in a

14:12

place that's not in one of those wars.

14:15

Like, stay out of wars.

14:18

And of course, climate has an effect.

14:20

And of course, then we have technology.

14:23

The United States and China are in the

14:24

big technology competitions. The others

14:27

are really not in the game, they don't

14:29

have the money, that this innovation and

14:31

talent in a sense to play at that scale

14:34

and so on. So, we have a great, you

14:37

know, technology

14:39

war which can be used to create great

14:42

advances, but at the same time could be

14:44

used for great conflicts. And so, now

14:47

the question is going to be who wins the

14:49

technology war because the winner of the

14:51

technology war is going to win all wars,

14:55

okay?

14:56

In other words, they'll win the economic

14:58

war.

14:59

They'll win the geopolitical war because

15:01

technology. And I'm not saying anything

15:03

that hasn't repeated through history.

15:06

Give me that historical context if you

15:08

can just for for

15:09

The technology, for example, nuclear

15:14

Yeah. Nuclear

15:16

won World War II.

15:19

And and does this cycle go back further

15:21

than just

15:21

>> Oh, no, it goes back

15:23

that book, okay.

15:26

Um in order to understand these things

15:28

because I have to bet on what's going to

15:29

happen. I'm a global macro investor. I

15:32

studied the last 500 years of history.

15:34

And it happens over and over again in

15:36

all cases.

15:37

Oh, so I could take the British Empire,

15:40

I could take you through all the

15:42

empires, but the Dutch Empire before

15:44

that and all this and it it it it

15:47

happens all the time.

15:49

I watched your I watched your videos

15:51

about this and it's truly fascinating

15:52

how predictable this stuff is and

15:55

the work that you've done to uncover

15:56

this trend throughout history. I mean,

15:57

it's almost for me it was almost

15:59

irrefutable watching the evidence in in

16:02

things like a 40-minute video on YouTube

16:03

where you show how this played out

16:04

through empires. And it begs the

16:06

question, you know, cuz

16:08

when you live in the United States, when

16:09

you're when you're in the present time,

16:11

you almost never assume that the empire

16:13

you're in could fall.

16:14

You just don't you don't see how it can

16:15

happen. We're so strong, we're so great,

16:17

you know, we're so that doing AI over

16:19

here, have money over here, everything's

16:20

good, the sun's shining.

16:22

Of course.

16:24

People always think that the future

16:26

would be a slightly modified version of

16:28

the present.

16:30

And it's not.

16:31

Okay, watch over decades, but it's like

16:35

watching a

16:36

person grow. Yeah. Okay. Yeah. You know,

16:39

you watch your kid or you watch a person

16:42

any age, any age, and that's what you

16:44

see. Yeah. Okay, and you don't see the

16:47

life arc. Yeah. Okay, but the life arc

16:49

is in irrefutable. But the you do do you

16:53

think it's conceivable that in the next

16:54

50 to 100 years the US could no longer

16:56

be the dominant power globally?

16:59

Yeah.

17:02

Yeah, more than conceivable. More than

17:04

conceivable.

17:07

What do what do you what do you mean by

17:08

more than conceivable?

17:10

I mean that these evolutions always take

17:13

place.

17:14

And they take place in a certain way.

17:17

And that

17:21

if you look at the

17:23

probabilities

17:25

and the paths and the symptoms,

17:28

there is a challenge the United States

17:31

is facing a number of those challenges.

17:34

And we're at a moment where um

17:39

it's a question of whether the system

17:42

and

17:44

the people

17:46

could can get control

17:50

of the situations and deal with it

17:54

strongly

17:56

and well

17:57

in a way where they are not

18:01

fighting

18:03

to the point of

18:05

damaging each other and damaging

18:08

the prospects for the future.

18:11

But I mean, the United States is very

18:12

innovative.

18:14

Got all these great innovative companies

18:15

here, so surely Yeah, but you can't make

18:18

generalizations about the United States

18:20

and you can't make generalizations, by

18:22

the way, about the markets either. Um

18:24

what you see is

18:26

um

18:28

1% a small percentage 1% of the

18:32

population. If you're looking at the

18:34

breakdown of incomes and also you're

18:37

looking at the innovation, the stock

18:39

markets, which stocks are doing well,

18:41

who owns those companies and all of

18:44

that. About 3 million people in a

18:46

country of 330 million people are really

18:51

unbelievably doing great and you could

18:52

pick the

18:53

neighborhoods they're in and what

18:55

they're doing. And then there's the top

18:57

10%, let's say, which is the people

19:00

around them and they're really really

19:02

doing great in that world. At the same

19:04

time, the bottom 60%

19:07

60% of Americans have below a sixth

19:11

grade reading level.

19:14

Wow.

19:15

And that population

19:19

in terms of

19:21

the basics

19:22

being productive

19:25

you have to be productive

19:27

and be prosperous. So,

19:30

what what you need to have a succe-

19:32

successful society is to have

19:35

broad-based productivity and prosperity.

19:40

Okay, and that's a problem.

19:43

Okay, so which America are you looking

19:46

at and are you watching the war that's

19:48

happening between these?

19:51

It's a little bit complicated for me as

19:52

a as a bit of an outsider because I see

19:55

Trump

19:56

saying he represents

19:58

those people.

20:00

But obviously Trump is a from the

20:02

billionaire class himself. So

20:04

I mean is he is he a savior for

20:06

inequality? Is he correcting in I think

20:09

I think he sees a lot of the problem and

20:12

he I think he sees the debt problem. I

20:15

think he sees the internal conflict

20:18

disorder problem. And I think he

20:21

represents

20:22

the red let's call it the red states. I

20:25

mean you look at a map and there's red

20:27

and blue and you see where they are.

20:29

Okay. And he represents that and they're

20:32

united behind him in terms of doing some

20:35

things. Okay. So he represents let's

20:38

call it the red side which is located

20:41

where the maps shows red and then there

20:44

are the blue and and he's

20:47

he views himself as somebody who needs

20:50

to take charge and to do certain things.

20:53

Others in that population would say

20:56

those who let's say are not getting or

20:59

having the food stamp program cut off

21:02

or having other programs cut off that

21:05

they're dependent on

21:07

would say

21:08

well a second that's not representing

21:10

me.

21:11

And so we have gone that population has

21:13

gone to significant number behind him.

21:19

That are

21:21

devotees.

21:22

They're all in.

21:24

Okay. At the same time as we have the

21:28

other side which will have their

21:30

devotees. If you know we're in New York

21:34

City.

21:35

Okay. And the up to upcoming mayoral

21:38

election will be an example of the two

21:41

sides. Okay. And they will

21:44

try to use the system but there's a

21:46

question. Will the system have enough

21:49

support to work? Okay. But that's what

21:52

we have. Just just to close up on this

21:54

point of the UK in particular. If if you

21:56

were to try and fix it, what would you

21:58

be aiming at? I say this because we do

22:00

have a millionaire exodus that's widely

22:02

reported in the UK where I think this

22:04

year was set to lose 16,000

22:06

roughly 16,000 millionaires.

22:09

When you look at the big big countries

22:10

like China, America, the UAE, the UK,

22:13

we're losing more millionaires than

22:14

anybody else. And I was wondering if you

22:16

think it's fixable and if you were in

22:18

charge of the UK

22:20

what you might aim at first.

22:22

It's difficult you know. First of all,

22:25

if you go back to the basic problem

22:29

which is there's too much debt

22:33

there are deficits

22:35

there's differences in

22:38

education and opportunity levels

22:43

and so on.

22:44

The most important thing that you can

22:47

have

22:49

is a strong middle.

22:51

Political middle? Political middle.

22:55

To be analytically strong

22:58

and also strong enough

23:00

to get the people to do what needs to be

23:03

done even if they don't want to do it to

23:05

get to be productive.

23:08

Now that's an easy thing to say.

23:11

It's not an easy thing to do. But you do

23:14

need that strong middle and you do need

23:18

to convey to people that you need to

23:21

have the strong middle to change

23:23

productivity.

23:25

And you know and are you in it?

23:28

Are are you in it? Are you patriotic and

23:30

in it and you know. But you look at

23:33

history

23:34

how did the United States come to be the

23:36

United States? People will go

23:39

to the places

23:41

that are better

23:43

than them than stay in the places that

23:45

worse for them. This is fundamental,

23:47

right? Incentives. Okay. So you have to

23:50

make the place

23:52

better.

23:54

Okay. Now I would say also you can take

23:57

pockets

23:58

and they go into the pocket and let it

24:01

spread out but you also have to have

24:02

this

24:03

equal education or you know you've got

24:06

to strive for equal opportunity. But

24:08

anyway, it's a difficult question that

24:10

I'm afraid

24:11

I'm incapable of

24:14

um

24:15

solving.

24:16

It was unnerving to hear the tone of

24:18

your voice drop when I asked it. You

24:21

slightly um

24:23

as if you you've kind of given up on the

24:25

UK a little bit.

24:27

Your facial reaction

24:28

>> No, I'm I'm just a I'm just a

24:31

I'm a practical guy.

24:34

I'm a realistic guy. I made my money.

24:37

I'm in the business

24:39

and it's my nature

24:41

to try to be realistic.

24:44

And to bet on how things will transpire.

24:47

And that's not healthy. The situation in

24:50

the UK is not healthy. And the situation

24:53

in the United States is very risky in

24:55

many ways. It's what we're describing.

24:58

So you know and then if you look where

25:00

are people going

25:02

then then you see the places that have

25:05

the qualities we're talking about.

25:07

They're civil.

25:09

They're creative.

25:12

The people aren't at war with each

25:14

other.

25:15

What happens next

25:16

in history?

25:18

Well, usually there's a big fight for

25:20

control.

25:22

Political revolutions and things like

25:25

that.

25:26

The system breaks down

25:30

because they don't trust the system.

25:36

So

25:37

will the legal system resolve that? Will

25:40

the parliamentary system resolve that?

25:43

That these disputes

25:45

satisfactorily

25:47

to the satisfaction of those people and

25:50

the other people who have different

25:52

points of view?

25:54

And the sides won't believe it. This

25:56

goes back

25:59

this goes back to Rome. It goes back to

26:01

Caesar.

26:03

You know, the Senate.

26:06

You know, this goes back through history

26:09

all the time. Right? And and then the

26:12

30s four major democracies

26:15

chose to be autocracies. Okay. That

26:18

happened in Italy, Germany, Spain and

26:21

Japan. What's autocracy for anyone that

26:23

doesn't know the word? Well, it it means

26:25

a dictatorship

26:28

essentially

26:29

of a limited number of people at the top

26:33

who are autocratic which means that they

26:36

are directing things rather than a

26:40

democracy

26:42

in which

26:44

there's representatives of all different

26:47

points of view that get together and

26:49

follow rules to make decisions.

26:53

So the UK could become an autocracy

26:56

as could the US I guess.

26:59

Um you're going to see a lot of pressure

27:02

for that strong leader who will get

27:05

control of things and make it work well.

27:07

And will and you're likely to see

27:11

two different views

27:13

as to which side you know, the red and

27:15

the blue sides so to speak. You're

27:18

likely to see that type of

27:21

clash. You said the US is playing a

27:22

risky game itself.

27:24

Is that from a debt debt perspective or

27:26

otherwise?

27:27

>> Well, from these things. Okay.

27:29

>> from the internal conflict from the

27:32

changing world order, the geopolitical

27:36

world conflict. You know, I don't know.

27:39

We're playing with nuclear weapons and

27:43

in wars in different places and then of

27:46

course climate and then

27:48

the technology war how we're doing that.

27:50

You know. I saw that image the other day

27:51

of Putin and and President Xi in China

27:55

together walking together. If China does

27:57

become the dominant force in the world

28:00

the dominant power

28:02

does is that a smooth transition? First

28:04

of all, I don't think

28:06

either side is going to be the clearly

28:08

dominant power for for a very long time.

28:12

Um and the

28:14

the quickest way

28:16

to have it is some kind of a war and

28:17

that's a dangerous thing. And but maybe

28:21

it evolves

28:23

hopefully the way the Soviet Union of

28:26

evolved that the the worry of mutually

28:28

assured destruction

28:30

keeps everybody

28:32

not having

28:34

that kind of war and then then then the

28:36

systems one system or another system

28:38

wins.

28:40

But that's an evolutionary process and

28:43

you know I can't say and

28:45

um

28:47

Do you think much about time frames and

28:48

cuz I when I was watching the fifth when

28:50

I was going through the changing world

28:52

order, there seems to be somewhat

28:54

consistent or predictable time frames

28:55

when these things these transitions

28:56

happen. Do you think about where we are?

28:58

>> Well, they're long-term big cycles.

29:01

Yeah. Right? It's it's like a life

29:03

cycle. On average they are about a life

29:06

cycle about 80 years. But it's not

29:08

predetermined just like your life cycle

29:11

is not predetermined. Like if you take

29:14

care of yourself and you you know I

29:16

don't know don't smoke, eat well,

29:18

exercise and so on so forth then you

29:22

will probably have a longer life cycle

29:24

than if you don't take care of yourself

29:26

and it's kind of like that you know. And

29:30

so you see them in history they evolve

29:33

but you can see the symptoms.

29:36

Okay. You can see the actions and the

29:37

symptoms.

29:39

Which like taking a physical

29:41

then gives you a sense of where they are

29:44

in their life cycles. What 80 years from

29:46

World War II. 80 years from World War

29:48

II, yeah.

29:50

And you're seeing the symptoms. Yeah.

29:52

Symptoms are clear. They're all in that

29:54

book. You can see the charts of all the

29:56

systems. Is it something to be worried

29:58

about or concerned about

30:00

if you're in the United States?

30:02

No

30:04

Yes.

30:06

And then the question is how you as an

30:08

individual handle it. How do I as an

30:10

individual handle it?

30:13

Well, first of all, I think

30:16

I think you have to be aware of the

30:18

situation and the risks.

30:20

For me and my family though, in terms of

30:22

risks

30:24

and how I should um

30:26

counteract those risks. Is it a case of

30:27

me saving for a rainy day? Is it a case

30:29

That's part of it. Yeah. Um

30:32

there's a there's a saying in Hong Kong

30:35

um a Chinese saying which is a smart

30:37

rabbit has three holes.

30:39

And what that means is

30:41

you can see is it the UK or the US and

30:47

uh and I can then move to the better

30:49

place and get out of the place that's a

30:51

terrible place. So, can I successfully

30:54

be an immigrant or whatever and change

30:56

my location? Throughout history, that's

30:58

been important. So, the ability to go to

31:03

good places

31:04

and away from bad places.

31:07

Um so, that's part of it.

31:08

Um secondly

31:11

building your financial strength

31:14

is important, which has to do with how

31:17

you earn, spend, and save. That will

31:20

determine

31:22

the amount.

31:24

And then, what you do with that amount

31:26

is invest. And so, how you invest

31:31

uh is also important.

31:33

So,

31:34

if you have your financial ability

31:38

and you can make the move and then you

31:40

have knowledge

31:43

you know, about what's happening

31:46

so that you can change things. Those are

31:48

the things you need. So, on that first

31:51

point about a smart rabbit having three

31:52

holes

31:54

is it therefore

31:56

a better decision at this point in time

31:57

to not

31:59

to not buy a house?

32:00

Because a lot of people end up buying a

32:02

house and it anchors them to to a place

32:04

and it means that they then have to pay

32:05

into a mortgage. So, a lot of a lot of

32:07

financial advice most of us have growing

32:08

up is when you get enough money to buy a

32:11

house, move in, pay that mortgage for 25

32:13

years. But if I'm in a new economy in a

32:15

new world and flexibility and the

32:17

ability to get up and go and move is uh

32:19

there's there's uh value to that. The

32:22

ability to move capital matters. And if

32:26

you look at history this has been an

32:28

important consideration. Yes, so it

32:30

matters. So, if you're nailing yourself

32:32

down and that's your primary capital and

32:35

it's nailed down there, then that's

32:37

those limit your flexibility.

32:39

And on the point of earning, spending,

32:41

and saving

32:43

wondered what you you're a You're a a

32:45

father, aren't you? Yeah.

32:48

What what advice are you giving to your

32:49

children about earning money in the in

32:51

the current world?

32:52

Where where they should set up their

32:53

shop, the skills that are most valuable

32:55

to acquire, the technologies, the we

32:57

talked about the US being a place to

32:59

one of the better places to build your

33:01

career

33:02

for all the reasons you described.

33:04

Well, that's

33:05

You know, that's kind of like the

33:07

particular that you asked me for that's

33:09

below the level of the higher level.

33:13

Okay? The higher level is I have a

33:15

principle. Make your work and your

33:17

passion the same thing and don't forget

33:19

about the money part.

33:23

Okay, if you make your work and your

33:26

passion the same thing so that you're

33:28

really enjoying your work

33:31

you'll have an enjoyable, satisfactory

33:33

life and you'll probably be better at

33:35

your career. That um as a result, you

33:38

probably advance and so on. So, you have

33:40

a happier life and you will have a more

33:43

probably a more successful life. But it

33:46

is true that the careers that you choose

33:49

will have financial implications. Mhm.

33:51

And if you say I want to be a poet or

33:55

something along those lines, you better

33:57

consider the financial implications of

34:00

that. That doesn't mean that you have to

34:02

go make a ton of money cuz I think that

34:04

that's I think a lot of people fall into

34:06

that trap that they think the money is

34:10

um like vast amounts of money is vast

34:13

amounts of success and that's not true.

34:16

In other words, is your work and your

34:18

passion the same thing? So, I think that

34:20

what brings people happiness is

34:22

meaningful work and meaningful

34:24

relationships.

34:26

Mhm. Okay, if you have meaningful work,

34:28

you know, that you're into and you're

34:30

what you know, your passion and your

34:31

work's the same thing and you have

34:34

meaningful relationships whether through

34:36

that work or beyond you going to have

34:39

probably a great life, okay? And so, you

34:41

have to keep that in mind and it doesn't

34:44

have much correlation past a certain

34:46

level of money Mhm. uh it doesn't have

34:49

much correlation with um that well-being

34:53

with the amount of money you have. And

34:55

if you see studies across societies and

34:57

you'll see that past that certain basic

35:00

level, there's no correlation between

35:02

the amount of money they have and how

35:04

much happiness they have or well-being,

35:06

okay? That the highest level of

35:09

correlation across societies and studies

35:11

of happiness and well-being is

35:13

community.

35:15

Do you have a sense of community? Do you

35:16

have those around you who are your

35:19

community? You'll live longer that way.

35:21

You'll have a more joyous life and it'll

35:23

be a better outcome. But anyway, so

35:26

thinking about those things I think is

35:28

important.

35:30

Based on your life cycle in this book,

35:32

Principles: Your Guided Journey, Create

35:34

Your Own Principles to Get the Work and

35:36

Life You Want

35:37

do you think you have to play different

35:39

games in different seasons of your life

35:41

cycle as it relates to generating

35:43

wealth? And what I'm talking about here

35:45

is really like risk profile um or what I

35:47

should be optimizing for. Should I be

35:49

Should I be trying to hang around with

35:50

Ray Dalio or should I be focusing on the

35:53

job that pays me the most?

35:56

First of all, yeah, the answer is yes.

35:59

And uh the second question you asked the

36:02

answer is um that you should be around

36:07

the

36:08

the people who are the best people to

36:11

teach you, to operate by them, the

36:14

mentors, and the learnings, and so on.

36:15

You should be around the best people.

36:17

And when I say best people, I mean

36:19

people of good character and good

36:22

capabilities, okay? And uh so, you

36:25

should be around the best, not the job

36:27

that pays you the most.

36:30

And I could explain why that is, but and

36:33

yes, in terms of that arc, you will play

36:36

it differently at different parts of

36:38

your life cycle. So, in the early part

36:41

of your life cycle, what you're going to

36:43

do is I mean, the more

36:46

learning and experiencing is the most

36:48

important thing that you can do in the

36:50

learning in the early part of your life

36:51

cycle.

36:54

It's like you're going to make your

36:55

choices. What direction am I going to be

36:57

in and so on and so forth. So, learn,

36:59

okay? That's that's most important. And

37:02

then once you're at the end of your life

37:04

cycle, you're pretty much relieved from

37:07

all of that. You're not going to be

37:09

working to earn, okay? You're going to

37:12

be free of all of that. You're going to

37:15

have

37:15

um and you have freedom of choices and

37:18

so on. And you're going to be thinking

37:20

about transitioning.

37:21

How do I transition well-being or how do

37:23

I transition my wealth or how do I

37:25

transition and so on, you know? That's

37:28

that's where you are. Still learning is

37:30

a joy

37:32

but at the same time in terms of trying

37:34

to accomplish it's not the same at your

37:38

late part of your life cycle as it is in

37:40

your early part of your life cycle. So,

37:42

I want to ask about your early life

37:43

cycle and what the most important

37:46

strategic or wealth-generating decisions

37:48

you made

37:50

that you would encourage everybody to

37:52

consider if their nature is aligned to

37:54

yours.

37:54

>> Okay, my nature was I hated school.

37:58

I didn't like

38:00

the whole thing of remembering this and

38:03

remembering this and then give it back

38:05

to me and there were these uh you know,

38:08

history like there's William the

38:11

Conqueror in 1066 and what did he do and

38:14

you know, like all of that was what

38:16

education represented. And when I was um

38:21

12, a kid I earned money with odd jobs

38:24

like um I had a paper route and

38:28

um I mowed lawns and I caddied and I

38:32

took my caddying money and when I was

38:34

12, I got everybody was talking about

38:37

the stock market. So, I put some money

38:38

in the stock market. I didn't know what

38:40

I was doing, of course, but I um I

38:43

picked um the stock. It was the only

38:46

stock I ever heard of that was selling

38:48

for less than $5 a share and my

38:51

reasoning was I could buy more shares.

38:54

So, if it went up, I could make more

38:56

money.

38:57

Okay, that was a stupid criteria, but it

39:00

was a company that was about to go

39:03

bankrupt and another company acquired it

39:06

and it tripled in price.

39:09

And I said, I like this game.

39:13

So, I got I got hooked on the game.

39:16

I'm still hooked on the game, right? So,

39:19

I liked it. Okay, that that affected me.

39:22

So, I barely got into uh CW Post College

39:26

and then I went to uh Harvard Business

39:29

School and that opened my eyes to the

39:32

world in the in many ways because of who

39:35

were there and what it was like and all

39:37

that, you know, the best and the

39:38

brightest kind of thing. But I always

39:40

still

39:41

traded markets cuz I always played the

39:43

game.

39:44

And I can tell you stories that you want

39:46

me to couple of quick stories?

39:47

>> 100%

39:48

>> Okay.

39:49

So, I'm clerking on the floor of the New

39:51

York Stock Exchange between graduating

39:54

from college and in the summer between

39:57

graduating from college and going to

40:00

Harvard Business School and that is 1970

40:04

summer of 1971.

40:07

And on August 15th, 1971,

40:11

Richard Nixon

40:15

gets on the television

40:17

and says

40:20

that you know the promise that that you

40:23

were going to be able to take your paper

40:25

money and go get gold, you can't do

40:28

that.

40:29

And we're not we're going to cut off

40:30

that off. He didn't say it in exactly

40:31

those words, but money then was gold.

40:36

And what we think of is paper money,

40:39

fiat money, was claims on the gold. So,

40:42

I walked on the floor of the New York

40:44

Stock Exchange that summer and I thought

40:46

the market was going to go down a lot

40:48

and the market went up a lot.

40:50

And I didn't understand why cuz I never

40:52

went through a devaluation before and I

40:54

studied history

40:56

and I found that

40:58

in March of 1933,

41:01

Roosevelt got on the radio and made the

41:04

exact same announcement that you're not

41:06

going to get your gold and they're going

41:07

to print the money and when you print a

41:08

lot of money, you have that.

41:11

Okay. So, I learned

41:13

that history

41:15

of things that never happened in my

41:16

lifetime before were important things to

41:19

understand. Okay. I went back

41:22

then to Harvard Business School to for 2

41:24

years and and 2 years later, as a result

41:27

of all the printing of money and the oil

41:30

shock because of all of that, uh we had

41:35

the I in 1973 oil shock.

41:38

And now because of my background, I'm

41:41

head hired to be director of commodities

41:45

at a Wall Street brokerage firm.

41:48

Okay. Mhm. Which and then

41:51

all sorts of things happened. Um

41:53

turbulence and so and so forth. That

41:55

firm went broke. I went to another firm

41:57

and I was

42:00

uh rowdy. I wasn't your typical good

42:03

employee, you know, follow everything

42:06

and so

42:08

So, I got fired.

42:10

And that was in uh 1975.

42:14

And then I but uh clients all liked me

42:17

and and for things and so, they would

42:19

pay me for advice and I continued to

42:22

trade the markets and that's when I

42:23

formed Bridgewater.

42:26

Okay.

42:27

And what happened?

42:28

>> That was 1975.

42:30

I just passed along Bridgewater 50 years

42:32

later. Yeah. Okay.

42:34

So, there's a journey there

42:37

that has failures and successes and

42:40

learnings. You know, I have a principle.

42:43

Pain plus reflection equals progress.

42:48

Okay. Your best learnings come from the

42:50

pain. It's a message. Pay attention.

42:53

Learn how reality works and how to deal

42:56

with it differently so you have

42:57

principles for real dealing with reality

43:00

better.

43:01

And I learned that process and from that

43:03

process, my company Bridgewater became

43:06

the largest hedge fund in the world. Um

43:09

extremely successful. Managing how much

43:12

at 150 billion dollars. 1,500 people 150

43:16

billion dollars. And that's made you a

43:18

very wealthy man. It made me a very

43:20

wealthy man, which by the way, was not

43:22

my intention.

43:24

Okay. I just wanted to play the game and

43:27

to have meaningful work and meaningful

43:29

relationships. That was paramount, but

43:31

it happened to be the game I played. If

43:32

you're good at the game, you make a lot

43:34

of money. And now, I'm in a stage in my

43:37

life where I'm

43:39

I want to pass things along. I need to

43:41

pass things along, right? So, hence the

43:44

books, hence our conversation

43:47

and here we are. That's the life arc.

43:49

But I learned a lot

43:51

and so that's the journey.

43:55

I think B2B marketers keep making this

43:57

mistake. They're chasing volume instead

44:00

of quality. And when you try to be seen

44:02

by more people instead of the right

44:03

people, all you're doing is making

44:05

noise, but that noise rarely shifts the

44:07

needle and it's often quite expensive.

44:10

And I know there was a time in my career

44:12

where I kept making this mistake that

44:13

many of you will be making it too.

44:15

Eventually, I started posting ads on our

44:17

show sponsors platform LinkedIn and

44:19

that's when things started to change. I

44:21

put that change down to a few critical

44:23

things. One of them being that LinkedIn

44:25

was then and still is today the platform

44:27

where decision makers go to, not only to

44:29

think and learn, but also to buy. And

44:31

when you market your business there,

44:33

you're putting it right in front of

44:34

people who actually have the power to

44:36

say yes. And you can target them by job

44:38

title, industry and company size. It's

44:41

simply a sharper way to spend your

44:42

marketing budget. And if you haven't

44:44

tried it, how about this? Give LinkedIn

44:46

ads a try and I'm going to give you a

44:48

$100 ad credit to get you started. If

44:51

you visit linkedin.com/diary,

44:53

you can claim that right now. That's

44:55

linkedin.com/diary.

44:58

Just for context, people don't like

44:59

talking about money and I understand it,

45:01

but you're a prolific philanthropist.

45:02

Also, Google says that your net worth is

45:04

in the tens of billions of dollars and

45:07

I'm sure there's some people that have

45:08

clicked on this conversation and aren't

45:10

aware of the scale of wealth you built

45:11

up in the scale of Bridgewater Capital

45:13

and how prolific and famous it is

45:16

in the investing world. In that 50-year

45:18

life arc, one of the things you

45:19

mentioned is pain.

45:21

All of us will encounter pain.

45:23

And you said pain plus reflection equals

45:27

progress.

45:29

How have you learned to deal with pain?

45:30

You've had a lot of pain in all facets

45:32

of life cuz you've lived the life arc

45:34

and you continue to. How what's the best

45:36

principle for dealing with pain?

45:39

The first of all, um to calm yourself

45:42

down

45:44

and to get centered. Meditation has had

45:46

a big beneficial effect on my life.

45:50

We can get into meditation in a minute

45:52

of how it has, but the ability to, you

45:54

know, in a sense,

45:56

calm yourself down

45:59

and when the time is right

46:02

to reflect on

46:04

what's happened

46:06

both to understand how reality works.

46:09

You know, you want to be a hyperrealist.

46:11

I understand how reality works,

46:13

therefore I need to do this under this

46:15

set of circumstances,

46:17

which means developing principles. And

46:20

so, what I did

46:22

when I would do that anytime and

46:24

whenever I would think, what what should

46:26

I do,

46:27

whether painful or not,

46:30

I would pause, reflect

46:32

on, you know, what should I do if that

46:34

happened again

46:36

and that's how I would write down my

46:37

principles.

46:39

And what I did was I wrote down

46:42

a lot of principles.

46:43

>> principles. A lot of principles. If this

46:45

happens, that happens and whatever.

46:48

And then so, I wrote these principles

46:49

down

46:50

and then I found that in investing,

46:54

um if I can computerize

46:56

those

46:58

decision rules,

47:00

I could back test them, see how they

47:01

would have worked and so on. So, I built

47:04

systems, decision-making systems. Um

47:07

computer would make decisions. So, it

47:09

was AI before LLMs, but it was AI to

47:14

have decision-making criteria. So, it

47:16

would be like I I would make a computer

47:20

chess game

47:21

that would play while I was playing my

47:25

mental chess game

47:27

what moves we would make.

47:29

And it's completely automated and so on.

47:31

But I'm what I'm trying to say is that

47:33

reflecting on how does reality really

47:36

work

47:38

and what do I do when this happens to

47:42

that happens is the development of

47:44

principles.

47:45

And that has been invaluable and it also

47:48

makes me see things differently.

47:50

Because a lot of people um

47:53

and if I didn't do this, I would be

47:56

seeing almost as uh

47:58

a blizzard of things coming at me.

48:02

Instead,

48:04

I see everything as another one of

48:06

those.

48:07

So, let let's say for example,

48:10

it it's a species. So, it's like seeing,

48:13

okay, that's what kind of species is it

48:16

and how do I deal with that species? So,

48:18

it's one of those rather than just a lot

48:20

of things coming at me. Pattern

48:22

recognition of Yeah. But but let's say

48:24

if you think of a it's a duck. Okay.

48:27

Okay.

48:28

Okay, it's a duck. How do I deal with a

48:30

duck? Or it's a lion.

48:33

Okay, how do I deal with a lion? You're

48:35

being very strict.

48:36

>> than just a lot of things coming at it.

48:38

So, this principle thinking

48:41

and seeing it that way had a big effect

48:44

on

48:45

the quality of my decision-making and

48:47

and that helped.

48:49

Two questions I had there is to become a

48:51

principle thinker, I need to do more

48:53

reflection, right?

48:55

And then the other thing is

48:56

>> Yeah, think about how does

48:58

how does the machine, how does how does

49:01

life, how do these things work?

49:04

So, that's what I mean. Okay. And to

49:07

write that down.

49:08

>> Uh

49:09

yeah, write write down your thoughts. I

49:11

find

49:12

sometimes what I would do is I'd uh

49:14

dictate them into my iPhone. Okay. Okay.

49:17

I'd say,

49:18

okay,

49:19

this is how When you're making a

49:21

decision, why did you make that

49:22

decision?

49:25

So, not just make a decision, but think

49:27

about the criteria you're using to make

49:29

the decision.

49:31

Also, my emotions, my trauma, my

49:33

insecurities, my anxiety. Right. And and

49:35

you might say when reflecting on that,

49:38

is that helpful? Is that harmful?

49:41

And what do I do about that? Like, for

49:43

example, when what you're referring to

49:46

is, yes,

49:48

that emotions and the things and all of

49:50

those um we you have to understand that

49:54

the basically the brain's got two parts

49:56

to it, right? It has the logical

50:01

part of your brain, reasonable, tries to

50:03

reason things through, and that which is

50:06

conscious. And then it has the

50:07

subconscious mind, which is the

50:10

subliminal that is really driving you.

50:14

And so when you can

50:17

reflect,

50:19

okay, how are my emotions entering into

50:22

it?

50:23

What do I you know, and so on, and you

50:25

can think and you can align that. That's

50:28

very powerful. And meditation, by the

50:30

way, naturally does that, because what

50:33

you do when you meditate and maybe a

50:35

time's coming I should explain

50:36

meditation. Okay, how it works.

50:38

Um

50:39

what you do is it's a process by which

50:43

you sit quietly

50:45

and you repeat in your mind what is

50:47

called a mantra, which is a sound that

50:51

it's a word that has no meaning. Let me

50:53

say the most classic example of that

50:55

would be om. Okay, so you quietly there

50:58

and you go

51:00

with your breath you go you know, om.

51:04

Om, like that. But you need to be

51:06

taught. But anyway, I

51:08

om and so when you're doing that

51:11

uh because you're om is in your mind or

51:14

your mantra's in your mind, you're not

51:16

able to have other thoughts.

51:20

You'll see yourself wavering between

51:23

doing that and staying on the mantra and

51:26

then having thoughts.

51:28

Um but and then you go back to your

51:29

mantra. When you are

51:32

uh in the mantra a a lot, then it

51:35

disappears.

51:36

The sound disappears and you go into

51:38

your subconscious mind.

51:39

That's what they call transcending.

51:41

Transcendental meditation is the type of

51:43

meditation I do.

51:45

And so you go there and you're not in a

51:48

conscious state and you're not in an

51:50

subcon- unconscious state. You're in a

51:52

conscious state. So it's subconscious

51:54

state. It's not unconscious is you're

51:57

sleeping. Conscious is that you're awake

51:59

like we are. You're in this. So it's a

52:02

different state. Like if you hear that

52:03

noise, you would hear that noise. It

52:05

would be big. And not when you're

52:07

sleeping. But when you're in your

52:09

subconscious state,

52:11

then it's relaxing,

52:13

uh it's helpful, and this process helps

52:16

to

52:18

um

52:18

bring

52:19

your conscious state and your uncon-

52:22

subconscious state into alignment.

52:26

In other words, you recognize both

52:28

and it calms you down.

52:30

It's like a the ninja in the ninja

52:33

movies, you know, they're fighting, but

52:36

they it seems in slow motion. The camera

52:38

shows them in slow motion and they're

52:40

doing whatever they're doing along that.

52:42

It kind of makes you in that kind of

52:44

state of mind so that you're dealing

52:46

with what's coming at you in that way.

52:50

And so what you referred to is this

52:53

um these things that happen, and how you

52:56

deal with those is really important to

52:58

the quality of your decision making. How

53:00

influential was transcendental

53:02

meditation in your success? Oh,

53:04

enormously successful. I enormously

53:06

significant. Ver- very very significant.

53:09

In other words, that way of singing

53:11

seeing things. And how often And and by

53:13

the way, there's you know, there's

53:15

uh

53:16

I I would say

53:17

there's a Serenity Prayer.

53:20

The Serenity Prayer

53:22

is God give me the serenity to accept

53:25

that which I can't control

53:28

and give me the power

53:30

to control that which I can

53:33

and the wisdom to tell the difference.

53:36

Okay? And so to how you approach these

53:40

things, we're talking about reflection.

53:42

You asked me reflection, okay? If you

53:44

can reflect in that quality way,

53:48

then you deal with anything. And I've

53:51

I've dealt with

53:53

uh the worst possible thing. Um I lost a

53:56

son.

53:57

Okay? And I would have rather died. I

54:00

would have rather lost everything to

54:01

lose my son. So it's the worst possible

54:03

thing. And and then to see what it did,

54:06

you know, the damage and the harm and

54:07

fear from family, terrible.

54:10

Okay.

54:11

Then to go through that with meditation,

54:14

with reflection, and so on,

54:18

uh was invaluable. And people have their

54:20

own challenges,

54:22

but to be able to do it that way,

54:25

I I really urge your audience, I urge

54:28

you, to uh to learn that. That's very

54:31

helpful.

54:32

How how did that tragedy change your

54:34

your perspective and your your

54:36

principles in any way? On life, on on

54:38

happiness, on success, on all these

54:40

things that you've written about.

54:42

Well, it's again I you know, I go above

54:45

it

54:46

and uh you reflect on the life arc.

54:51

And

54:52

I realize at that higher level

54:55

that that's

54:57

what the life arc is like. If you'll In

55:01

in all my books there's this

55:03

ar- um arcing.

55:06

This arcing here. There's a bigger

55:08

version of it.

55:10

Uh yeah, there's this arcing.

55:12

Okay, I don't know if your camera sees

55:14

that. Okay, whatever it is. And that's

55:16

what life and evolution is like to me,

55:20

meaning you make advances.

55:23

You will have setbacks.

55:26

Okay?

55:27

If you reflect well

55:30

and you learn how reality works and how

55:32

you will deal with it,

55:35

you will get past that

55:38

and go on.

55:40

And that's just what it is. That's just

55:42

the way life is.

55:43

And if you do that well,

55:45

then that's your best possible life. Are

55:49

you religious? Are you a religious

55:50

person? I'm not religious, but I'm

55:53

spiritual. Okay. The Dalai Lama, who I

55:56

had the pleasure of meeting, told me uh

55:58

and I I agree with

56:00

um that religions are typically

56:03

um a mix

56:05

between superstitions

56:08

and spirituality. There's half of it is

56:12

that element that nobody knows, but

56:15

there is

56:18

the way people should deal with each

56:20

other.

56:21

There is karma.

56:23

Okay? All religions

56:26

there's a part of them

56:28

that says

56:30

do unto others as you would have them do

56:32

unto you, or what goes around comes

56:35

around. And then you get to the

56:37

particulars, okay? And it is true

56:41

that if we work well together,

56:45

that

56:46

even little things I can do to help you

56:49

can make a big difference in your life.

56:52

And little things that you can do to

56:53

help me make a the big difference in my

56:55

our lives.

56:57

And so it's practical and it is also

57:00

joyous.

57:01

Okay? That creates a relationship. And

57:04

we talked earlier about how that

57:06

meaningful relationship is like the

57:09

source of great happiness. But when you

57:11

have a community and you do that, you

57:14

have a better society. And almost all

57:17

religions will tell you that. There'll

57:18

be elements of those.

57:20

And when I believe in spirituality, what

57:22

I also mean is

57:24

um we're all part of this greater whole.

57:30

Okay?

57:31

We're all part of the greater whole. And

57:32

if you could see yourself as part of the

57:35

greater whole

57:37

and love the greater whole uh and

57:39

whatever,

57:40

that is spirituality, really, okay? And

57:44

so I will go through my life arc,

57:47

okay? And I will die, and I'm

57:50

comfortable with that, okay? In that,

57:54

okay, it's all

57:55

part of the greater whole you know, nat-

57:58

nature and whatever it is. That's true.

58:01

I can't tell you about other things, but

58:03

I do believe in the things I just told

58:06

you.

58:07

When it comes to living a a successful

58:09

life, you we've talked about having

58:11

dreams and understanding your nature and

58:12

aspiring for things and then

58:13

understanding reality, which

58:14

transcendental meditation's a great

58:16

mechanism and vehicle to do.

58:18

Um and in your in your book about a

58:20

successful life, you talk about plus

58:22

determination.

58:24

Plus determination.

58:26

Hard work.

58:29

If I want to be a successful

58:31

man or woman,

58:33

how important do you think hard work is?

58:37

Well, gives you power. It's very

58:38

important, right? Some people some

58:40

people, you know,

58:41

I'm not saying they want to choose it,

58:43

but the iron- the irony of things is

58:47

there are first order consequences and

58:48

there are second order consequences.

58:50

This is like a rule of life, okay? And

58:52

most of the time the first order

58:54

consequences,

58:58

whether they're

58:59

likable or not,

59:02

has the opposite second quarter

59:05

second order consequences. So what I

59:06

mean by that is

59:08

like eating

59:10

or exercising, okay?

59:13

Eat the foods you like,

59:15

second order consequence is probably not

59:17

going to be good.

59:19

Um

59:20

you know, I don't want to exercise.

59:23

Um the second order consequences won't

59:25

be as good, okay?

59:27

Working hard,

59:29

which gives you strength. Where does

59:31

strength come from? I mean

59:33

strength comes from working hard.

59:36

So, working hard will will give you

59:39

power.

59:41

Power will make things easier and make

59:44

things better.

59:45

That's just the way it is.

59:47

And being open-minded while you do it?

59:50

Something that was really important to

59:51

you.

59:51

>> Yeah.

59:52

I say

59:53

importance of being open-minded and

59:56

assertive at the same time.

59:58

Um

59:58

I I

60:00

I watch

60:03

people becoming so

60:06

tied to their own opinions.

60:08

Like this is the greatest tragedy of

60:10

mankind.

60:13

The greatest tragedy of mankind cuz it's

60:15

so easily can be fixed

60:17

is

60:19

holding a strong opinion

60:22

that is wrong

60:25

that you

60:27

could have made right

60:29

better

60:31

if you were open to learning more. If

60:33

you were said I want to be stress

60:35

tested. I want my thinking to be stress

60:37

tested. I want to make sure that I'm

60:39

making the better decision. And so I'll

60:42

be challenged. But a lot of people view

60:45

that challenging like a fight.

60:49

It's not a fight. If somebody holds a

60:50

different opinion, it should prompt a

60:52

curiosity.

60:55

You know, I don't know. Am I wrong or is

60:57

they wrong? It's a 50% chance. I don't

60:59

know. Maybe I'm wrong.

61:01

So, it should prompt curiosity and an

61:04

exchange to try to make sure that you're

61:07

seeing the whole picture and so on. But

61:09

subliminal instincts are I'm going to

61:11

stick with it and I'm going to have a

61:12

fight.

61:14

That's the problem.

61:16

Because there's too much on the line for

61:17

so many people to to It's subliminal.

61:20

It's It's It just goes back to the mind

61:23

thinking

61:24

that the intellectual challenge is a

61:27

fight.

61:29

And it's egotistical, you know, ego.

61:32

I must be right. As an As an investor

61:34

and entrepreneur, that's obviously

61:36

particularly important because

61:38

you're constantly dealing with new

61:39

information and feedback which you need

61:41

to

61:42

be flexible.

61:42

>> That was one of the two things that

61:44

changed my

61:46

uh

61:47

my my my whole direction and made me

61:49

successful. I get I can't explain it if

61:52

you want.

61:52

>> Please.

61:54

19

61:55

79 and 80.

61:59

I had calculated that American banks

62:02

had lent more money to foreign countries

62:04

that they were going to be able to pay

62:06

back and that we were going to have a

62:08

debt crisis.

62:10

Very controversial point of view. In

62:12

August of

62:15

1982,

62:16

Mexico defaulted on its debts.

62:19

And over the next decade, many other

62:21

countries did and it caused bank

62:23

problems. However,

62:25

at that time, I thought things were

62:27

going to get bad and that was the exact

62:29

bottom in the stock market, August 1982.

62:34

So, I couldn't have been more wrong.

62:37

I

62:38

lost money for me. I lost money for the

62:40

clients. I lost money. I was so broke

62:43

that I had to borrow $4,000 from my dad

62:46

to help to pay for family bills because

62:48

I was faced with the choice, what am I

62:49

going to do?

62:51

And And do I

62:53

Do I go back to

62:54

work on Wall Street, get a

62:56

uh

62:57

tie, get on the train and go back that

62:59

which is again not in my nature or

63:01

whatever. And And two things changed me.

63:04

Okay, reflection.

63:07

First of all

63:10

um I learned what we were just talking

63:12

about.

63:13

I learned humility.

63:15

A fear of being wrong.

63:17

And open-mindedness.

63:19

So, I wanted the smartest people who

63:21

could I could find to stress test my

63:23

opinions.

63:25

Cuz I'm always realized I could be

63:26

wrong.

63:28

And then I learned how to diversify my

63:31

bets so that I could dramatically reduce

63:34

my risk without reducing my returns.

63:37

Okay, that was the bottom.

63:40

Okay, from that point all the way over,

63:43

that following those principles took me

63:45

to the biggest hedge fund in the world,

63:47

the most successful and so on cuz I

63:49

applied it to the market, applied it to

63:51

what we did and so on. So, that notion

63:55

of reflection and then how do you deal

63:57

with what reality is like and then, you

64:00

know, okay, the Learn Learn radical

64:03

open-mindedness. In other words, unlike

64:05

there's a principle in the book, you

64:07

have to take in before you put out.

64:10

Or that um

64:11

decision-making is a two-step process.

64:14

First, take in, then decide.

64:17

Okay? So, yes, open-mindedness

64:20

you don't doesn't in any way minimize

64:22

your ability to decide.

64:25

So, you still have the freedom to

64:26

decide, but it's crazy not to be

64:28

open-minded.

64:30

You recognize that the biggest threat to

64:31

good decision-making is harmful emotions

64:33

and that two-step process is first learn

64:36

and then make the decision, which is

64:37

funny cuz it sounds simple. But when you

64:39

said it, I think about all the worst

64:40

decisions I've ever made in business and

64:42

I missed step one.

64:44

I forgot to I forgot to take a minute

64:47

and do the evidence gathering or the

64:49

like information gathering process.

64:50

>> Yeah, just smart people care about your

64:52

decision. Say stress test me.

64:56

Why don't we do that?

64:58

That ego

65:00

and also instinct that that's a fight.

65:03

Is there any advice you would give me on

65:05

becoming a better decision-maker? So, I

65:06

have a fund, I have many businesses. Is

65:09

there any sort of practical

65:12

simple foundations of becoming a better

65:14

decision-maker that we haven't talked

65:15

about? Get smart people to interrogate

65:18

my thinking.

65:19

Um be open-minded.

65:22

I think we've talked about almost all of

65:24

them. Um

65:25

I think then you have to then know about

65:29

how to leverage yourself.

65:32

Okay? In other words, as you do more and

65:34

more

65:36

uh how do you do more and more when your

65:38

brain has a capacity limit?

65:41

Okay? And there's only certain number of

65:43

hours in the day or the week. Okay? You

65:46

have to know how to do that.

65:47

>> Is that focus or is that something

65:49

No.

65:51

It's knowing how to do it through

65:52

others.

65:54

Okay?

65:55

It's knowing how to pick others and

65:58

orchestrate we- well. It's like uh

66:00

running a symphony or whatever. Okay?

66:02

Get the best players.

66:05

Okay, when I say you know, um good

66:08

character and good capabilities

66:11

and orchestrate them well.

66:13

And then provide that um that leverage.

66:16

Like I um

66:17

when I was doing the most, I had 30

66:19

direct reports.

66:22

Whatever the number is, it's only at

66:25

it's the process is how to get more out

66:27

of a minute or a day.

66:30

Not how to work harder.

66:32

Okay? It's how to leverage yourself. And

66:35

you're going to leverage yourself by

66:36

picking the right people who you can

66:39

trust. They're not going to screw you.

66:41

They're going to operate in your

66:43

interest and they're going to be

66:44

capable. And so, a lot of people, what

66:47

you can do is you can deal with them and

66:49

then you can say like I I would deal

66:52

with them on this 30 reports.

66:54

I'd have maybe um

66:56

an hour meeting with them once every 2

66:59

weeks.

67:01

And And they'd go off and do things.

67:03

And when you do that, you can even find

67:05

people who are much better at things

67:07

than you would be if you did them.

67:09

Because if you have these different

67:10

things

67:12

okay, you better because otherwise you

67:16

don't have the capacity.

67:18

You have these two

67:19

key challenges to to overcome as an

67:21

which is find these great capable people

67:23

that have great character and then like

67:25

bind them with the right culture to make

67:26

sure that they do the best work. Right.

67:28

And And in other words

67:30

it's meaningful work and meaningful

67:32

relationships

67:34

through radical truthfulness and radical

67:37

transparency.

67:39

Radical truthfulness and transparency.

67:41

Okay. First, if you can have um

67:46

meaningful

67:47

work and meaningful relationships, the

67:50

people are on the mission with you.

67:54

Wow, that's fantastic. But

67:59

y-

68:00

You better be truthful and transparent.

68:02

That'll show that you're honest and you

68:04

better because you have to get a truth

68:06

including what people are bad at

68:09

and how to deal with all those things.

68:12

How Uh and And most people hide them.

68:15

They don't bring them out into the open.

68:17

Okay? They'll Everybody's worried about

68:19

hurting each other's feelings or

68:22

you know, uh that. And then so they're

68:24

not honest with each other.

68:26

And And they're That's the barrier. You

68:28

We talked about the barrier of

68:29

disagreement. There's It's like that.

68:32

Okay, um you know, uh I don't know. Are

68:35

you good at that? Are you striking out?

68:37

If you're striking out and what is it?

68:40

How do we deal with it? You better talk

68:41

about that clearly cuz you need to have

68:44

an A team of players. You know, you have

68:46

to work yourself so that your team is an

68:48

A team of players who are tight. How did

68:50

you do that Bridgewater? How did you

68:52

make people honest?

68:53

Uh well, uh fir- first of all, um I had

68:56

a policy, talk behind another person's

68:59

back

69:00

um critically.

69:03

That happens three times, you're out.

69:05

And then I would have radical

69:08

transparency so everybody could see

69:09

everything.

69:11

So, you could see why I'm making

69:13

decisions that I would reflect.

69:16

But the main thing

69:18

is, you know, you know if it's happening

69:20

or not.

69:21

Okay? And I made that comfortable

69:25

because that's un- ordinarily

69:26

uncomfortable.

69:28

We talked about the fact that there's an

69:29

intellectual you and there's an

69:30

emotional subliminal you. Okay, I made

69:34

them understand like if I had a team, a

69:37

football team,

69:38

and so on,

69:40

that this is going to be better for the

69:42

team, it's going to be better for you

69:43

and you'll have your evolution because

69:45

what do you want to have dishonesty? Do

69:47

you want people to think one thing about

69:50

you and really say something different?

69:54

How is that going to work? So, there's

69:57

an intellectual

69:59

okay, we believe it. And then also by

70:01

having the meaningful relationships. I

70:04

mean,

70:05

I'm not I don't force them. I create a

70:06

culture of meaningful relationships so

70:09

that they

70:10

have known each other for a long time.

70:12

They go go to each others parties or

70:15

they go to each others

70:18

their are funerals, there are baby

70:20

showers, there are these things. Not

70:23

that anybody's

70:25

I I created uh clubs. I said any club

70:29

that you want to create that has more

70:31

than

70:32

20 people, um whatever it is up to $500

70:36

per person, I'll pay for half.

70:38

So, so I don't care what it is. If it's

70:42

play softball or play chess or whatever

70:46

it is that you're enjoying each other's

70:47

company or you want to go to

70:50

ball games or something. I don't care

70:52

what it is. I'll pay for half up to that

70:54

up to $500. So, I to

70:57

nobody has obligations to or something.

71:00

But if I have that kind of meaningful

71:02

relationships, so you can talk honestly

71:06

with each other.

71:07

I found that very helpful. And you built

71:10

a famously built an idea meritocracy,

71:13

which in my understanding means where

71:15

the best idea ends up winning in the

71:17

company versus just your idea because

71:19

you're the most powerful person in the

71:20

business.

71:21

>> Right. I mean, I want what do I want? I

71:23

want the best idea to win. This sounds

71:26

simple but but again, it's it's not how

71:27

businesses operate. One of the

71:29

fascinations I've always had is that

71:30

when businesses get bigger and they have

71:32

more intellectual horsepower by I mean,

71:36

if you just added up how many brains

71:37

they had, they sometimes get less

71:40

innovative and

71:42

it it feels like the the CEO

71:43

>> Well, because they become more more

71:45

bureaucratic and more fragmented. Yeah.

71:49

Okay, there's I found it to be true and

71:52

it's well established fact that if you

71:54

get a group of people past a certain

71:57

size, which is 75 to 100 people,

72:01

um they don't know each other. Okay,

72:04

they they they start to become different

72:07

and then

72:09

you lose those relationships, you lose a

72:11

lot and so on. I found it because I

72:14

at the holiday season every year, what I

72:17

would do is I would write everybody

72:21

notes, long notes in in their cards and

72:24

I would pick an individualized holiday

72:27

gift for them. And when it got to be the

72:29

67 people, I remember the year, it broke

72:33

my back. I mean, I I just couldn't do

72:35

it. Okay, and I realized that at that

72:38

point, I was

72:41

going into another frame. Okay, and so

72:44

it's a organizational reality that you

72:47

can keep that group and then what you

72:48

have to do is then you have different

72:51

those different areas and you have to

72:53

create cohesiveness between those

72:55

different and

72:57

cohesiveness, common mission and how do

72:59

you do that between that? So, like for

73:02

example, when we'd have our holiday

73:03

party, where it used to be everybody

73:05

would be

73:06

you know, sort of go in and you have a

73:08

holiday party and everybody together.

73:10

What I found out is we had a big arena

73:14

that we would go to and I'd have both.

73:17

I'd have okay,

73:19

that department is in that area and

73:21

whatever and then they come out and they

73:22

all mingle together and so on. So,

73:24

there's an organizational

73:27

thing that you've got to realize in

73:29

terms of culture and and management of

73:31

that.

73:32

>> It's like villages in a city, I guess.

73:33

Like you basically keep build the

73:35

villages and then

73:36

>> Good example, yeah. Interesting. Okay.

73:38

And yeah, yeah, all media companies are

73:40

at that exact point now. It's at it's at

73:42

that 90 90 odd people.

73:44

>> Okay, there you are.

73:46

>> you said 75 to 100, I was like, ah

73:47

interesting.

73:48

>> Yeah. I was thinking about all the

73:49

things I should be doing now to

73:51

counteract some of those adverse effects

73:53

of the culture splintering or

73:55

relationships breaking down, but I guess

73:57

you've described it there. Uh

73:59

interesting. And I have to say, one of

74:01

the things that I found to be most I'm

74:03

33 years old. I just turned 33 last

74:04

week.

74:06

It's crazy how

74:09

how often people say that hiring is the

74:11

most important thing. Yet when you look

74:13

at how what entrepreneurs are spending

74:14

their time on, it's usually like the

74:16

product, the marketing, etc. And it's

74:18

maybe like one or two hours in some

74:20

cases if they're lucky on finding truly

74:22

exceptional people. They often just

74:24

outsource it to someone else, the

74:25

recruitment team.

74:26

When you think back through your career,

74:28

how important was it to find truly

74:31

exceptional people? Of course. Well, I

74:34

systematized it. First of all,

74:36

um I think

74:38

that anything I do or one does can be

74:41

systematized. So, I would think what are

74:44

the personalities, what are the

74:46

backgrounds of the people that I'm

74:49

hiring, what are the choices, how do I

74:51

specify it? And I've and I got it by

74:54

also maintaining a lot of data with

74:57

people. There's um there's a TED Talk I

75:00

did that uh explains how like data

75:04

everybody's going around and they're

75:06

operating in a certain way. So, I know

75:07

what people are like. If you know what

75:10

people are like, you know what you can

75:11

expect of them. And then I would then

75:15

say uh in a very data way, those people

75:18

who are successful in these jobs have

75:22

the following attributes

75:25

that would create a job spec,

75:28

specifications for that type of job. So,

75:31

I I knew that in that type of job, there

75:34

would be that type of person I'm looking

75:36

for. Mhm. Okay, yeah. What works? They

75:40

work. Okay, data. And then I would find

75:43

that would be my job spec. And and so we

75:47

had the systems and then we had some

75:49

people who were responsible for doing

75:52

that because you're right, it takes

75:54

time. How can I interview all those

75:55

people and so on. But who can you trust?

75:58

And you're operating that way and then

76:01

evaluation process doesn't stop when you

76:04

hire them.

76:06

Okay, the evaluation process continues

76:09

from that moment and you still learn

76:11

more about what they're like and you do

76:13

that same process and still think would

76:15

I still have hired them?

76:17

And and if I wouldn't have hired them

76:20

in the first place, then they shouldn't

76:22

be there. And so I have a process and

76:26

people, people and process. Do people

76:28

change after a certain point? So, if you

76:29

find someone in 6 months, in 12 months

76:31

and they haven't changed, is it worth

76:33

giving them another year? Is it worth a

76:34

performance review? I found out that

76:38

for me, the big question mostly, there

76:40

were two big questions, but um

76:43

the big question is how do you adapt to

76:46

my culture?

76:48

And that would take about 18 months to

76:51

find out. Like, can you speak honestly

76:54

about what can we have thoughtful

76:56

disagreement? Do you like this

76:58

evolutionary process where you're

77:00

challenged and all of this kind of

77:01

thing? That culture. That'd take about

77:04

18 months. And then roughly speaking,

77:07

then

77:08

learning about the people,

77:10

their strengths and weaknesses,

77:13

would take 18 months to 2 years, maybe

77:16

something along those lines.

77:18

And so then, you know, you could pretty

77:21

much decide. But always being open every

77:25

day by day so nobody's surprised that

77:28

you're always talking about things, you

77:30

know, how's it going?

77:32

Make sure you keep what I'm about to say

77:33

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79:14

AI is a bit of an alien that seems to

79:16

have entered the room um

79:18

and has is going to change Every every

79:20

every industry. Great.

79:24

Yeah. I can't tell if you're being

79:25

sarcastic. No.

79:27

Truly. If you are

79:30

working with it, controlling it, if it's

79:33

a good partner, to be able to get a lot

79:35

of leverage, it's

79:38

truly fantastic. As I said, in almost

79:41

everything I did,

79:43

we had the crit criteria, we had the

79:44

systematized, would you do that, would

79:46

you not do that, how to you know, how

79:48

does reality work, what are the

79:49

principles. And And so, it's a fantastic

79:54

leveraging. Like I described, you know,

79:56

I would make the decision-making model,

79:58

like the computer chess game that would

80:00

make it. Well, now it's better than

80:03

ever, those those resources. So, it

80:06

leverages you enormously. What about

80:08

having a strong middle? We talked about

80:10

having a strong sort of economic

80:11

political middle. Political middle,

80:13

yeah. Yeah.

80:15

Is it going to drive inequality?

80:16

>> Yes, it's going to That's like all good

80:18

like all things, it's going to be

80:22

it has good things and bad things, and

80:24

we were talking, let's say, first about

80:26

managing and doing that. I think in

80:29

managing and knowing what people are

80:30

like and how they're all it's going to

80:32

be very very valuable, mostly very

80:36

valuable. In terms of changing

80:40

there will be

80:41

a limited number of winners and a bunch

80:44

of losers, and I think it's going to

80:47

create much greater polarity, which as

80:50

we're seeing

80:52

um

80:53

through the system the ways that we

80:54

talked about, you know, that top 1 to

80:58

10% benefiting a lot and then

81:02

so that will be a a dividing

81:05

a force, I think. It's going to going to

81:06

pose the question with robotics

81:08

accelerating at the speed of of light

81:10

with Optimus and Tesla and all the

81:12

things they're doing and all these other

81:13

companies, humanoid robots, and then

81:15

with artificial intelligence

81:17

having trillions of dollars plowed into

81:19

it and accelerating. We're in this crazy

81:21

boom at the moment.

81:22

With these two things combining, you're

81:24

going to be able to have a humanoid

81:25

robot who that can navigate human

81:27

spaces, but is also smarter than I am.

81:30

Lawyers, accountants,

81:32

uh

81:34

lots of people in the medical

81:35

profession. Why would you Why would one

81:37

need them

81:39

if we had a humanoid robot that is

81:41

smarter than all of us and has a PhD in

81:43

everything? Well, we will not need a lot

81:46

of those jobs for the reasons that

81:48

you're saying. Okay.

81:51

And then the question is what our

81:53

society does.

81:56

And what do you think we do in such a

81:58

world?

81:59

I think we fight over about what we do,

82:02

unfortunately. Um

82:04

but as I say,

82:06

I don't think we have escaped a world

82:09

where

82:10

most people

82:12

to have a healthy society, most people

82:15

have to be productive

82:17

and prosperous. I don't I I think people

82:21

need to be Now, certainly

82:23

there and there certainly needs to be a

82:25

redistribution

82:28

policy. I don't think that's just a

82:30

redistribution of money policy

82:33

because uselessness and money may not be

82:38

a great combination.

82:40

So, I think that you have that has to be

82:43

figured out, and the question is whether

82:46

we're too fragmented

82:48

to figure that out and agree on it, and

82:51

I'm worried about that.

82:53

Interesting times. Is there any

82:55

historical precedents for this in your

82:56

view? Someone that knows history. Is

82:58

there any historical precedents for

82:59

something like AI and robotics

83:01

converging?

83:01

>> Well, um

83:04

through

83:07

um evolution,

83:10

we have gone from

83:13

a period of time which was called the

83:15

Dark Ages or the Agricultural Age

83:18

in which basically

83:21

there was land, it's agricultural and so

83:24

on, and people were treated and they

83:27

were essentially like oxen, most people.

83:30

And then there were the landowners who

83:32

were nobles, and then there were the

83:33

royalty who were the families that

83:36

control most things and so on. And then

83:39

in history, with the

83:41

invention of the printing press, there

83:45

became more knowledge

83:48

um and more intelligence,

83:51

and we see an evolution in which

83:54

you start to see new ages emerge and

83:58

thinking emerge and power change. And I

84:01

won't take you through the whole

84:02

history, but you start to see that

84:05

individuals can be clever enough to earn

84:08

money that So, you begin the Age of

84:12

Exploration and the Industrial

84:15

Revolutions in which machines replaced

84:18

people.

84:19

And it's almost like they first replaced

84:22

them physically, that

84:25

In other words, they didn't have they

84:26

were not like oxen doing the thing, so

84:28

you get a tractor or something, and it

84:31

don't and it's almost like from the body

84:33

up in terms of the mind. And so, you've

84:37

seen that evolution through time and the

84:41

rise of intelligence in its various

84:43

forms go through this arc

84:46

of rising in intelligence, and now you

84:50

see that intelligence matters more than

84:53

anything, okay? It matters more than

84:55

money, it matters more than anything

84:57

because intelligence will attract people

85:00

among those with money to invest in the

85:02

the development of that. And so, we have

85:05

seen this arc through history develop in

85:10

that way, right? And we've seen people

85:12

replaced. Now, the question is, as we

85:15

get higher and higher in thinking, okay,

85:19

whether we've run out of capacity to

85:22

shift or whether we're just going to be

85:24

totally replaced. Our muscles have been

85:26

totally replaced, but okay, as this is

85:29

happening, our best thinking may be

85:32

totally replaced, and we're going to

85:34

have to deal with that question.

85:37

Are you hopeful?

85:39

I'm excited.

85:42

I'm

85:45

I think it all comes down to human

85:46

nature. Okay. I'm excited in that

85:52

fast forward, make the most of it,

85:56

jump on it, woo, you know, I'm excited.

86:00

I've also watched

86:02

the evolution of species.

86:06

Almost all species have come and gone

86:09

for certain reasons. And they one of the

86:12

reasons

86:13

that they come have come and gone is

86:15

because almost their strengths are not

86:18

in all respects great strengths. You can

86:21

use these things, intelligence, to your

86:24

detriment.

86:26

And I believe that um the things that

86:31

these technologies and so on bring us,

86:34

while very important, extends life

86:36

expectancy and all of that,

86:41

is not important as important as human

86:42

nature.

86:45

And so, if you were to go back in time

86:47

and were different societies, do you

86:49

have happier societies? Is the

86:51

well-being greater?

86:53

Okay. So, you can go 50 years ago, and

86:56

you might say the well-being is greater

86:59

50 years ago, not in all ways, not in

87:02

in many ways the technologies and and

87:05

the consequences of those are much

87:06

better, but you may have had a better

87:08

life, and it's human nature of how

87:11

people are going to deal with each

87:13

other. So, I think the real question is

87:16

can people rise above

87:19

this?

87:20

And and which it goes back to the

87:22

spirituality question, can people then

87:25

rise above it so that they think of the

87:29

collective good, and they think of, you

87:32

know, collectively, how do we make the

87:34

best, and also karma, you know, in other

87:37

words,

87:38

the realization that if I help you in

87:42

ways that can be so simple for me to

87:43

help you and make such a big difference

87:45

in your life, and you do the same, and

87:47

we have win-win relationships, it'll be

87:50

good, but if we don't do that, and I

87:54

worry about human nature, and I worry

87:56

about this process. Especially when

87:58

you've got geopolitical

87:59

tensions and It's because of human

88:01

nature.

88:03

I've had a lot of conversations on the

88:04

podcast about AI, and I just can't seem

88:06

to get to my own solid conclusion about

88:08

this, because when I look at human

88:09

nature, as you say, I see greed, I see

88:12

power hunger, status. Yeah, some

88:15

problems you just just accept the fact

88:18

that you may not be able to be confident

88:20

of the meta prediction in the future, so

88:21

it'll always be a question, and just get

88:23

on with the fact of using it for

88:25

yourself in the best way that works for

88:26

you. That's what I'm doing.

88:28

We have a closing tradition on this

88:29

podcast where the last guest leaves a

88:30

question for the next, not knowing who

88:32

they're leaving it for.

88:33

You know this person.

88:34

Um

88:36

because I've seen you with them. Um the

88:38

question they left for you is what is a

88:40

book or books

88:42

that you've recommended or gifted more

88:44

than others, and why?

88:46

Can't say your own, but I won't. Uh

88:48

right.

88:49

Um

88:50

There are three books.

88:53

There's a book on evolution but written

88:56

by Richard Dawkins.

88:58

Uh River from

89:01

Eden, I think it's called.

89:03

Then a book by

89:05

um

89:07

Will and Ariel Durant, which are the

89:09

maybe the greatest historians

89:12

in time,

89:13

and it's called Lessons from History.

89:16

It's a very short book. I think it's 104

89:18

pages. They wrote massive amounts about

89:22

5,000 years of history and so on and

89:24

they sort of condensed their lessons,

89:27

lessons from history.

89:29

And then

89:31

um

89:32

Joseph Campbell's The Hero's Journey.

89:37

Is it the the hero with a thousand

89:39

faces?

89:40

>> Yes, that's it. Hero with a thousand

89:41

faces. And why Dawkins book? Why did you

89:44

say that one?

89:44

>> Oh, he understands evolution.

89:47

Everything is evolving.

89:49

Okay, all species. Man is one of 10,000

89:52

species.

89:54

I mean and they're and they're all

89:56

structured similarly. There's a

89:57

structure. They you know, like um two

90:01

eyes, uh a brain that has a structure to

90:04

it um that and the same parts of the

90:06

brain. There's the cerebrum, the

90:08

cerebellum, the prefrontal cortex.

90:10

There's this structure that makes you

90:12

think differently and and so on. There's

90:15

evolution. There's all evolution. So,

90:17

it's not just limited to

90:20

um human evolution or what humans are

90:22

like. It's the force of evolution. Man

90:25

is only

90:26

um

90:27

mankind's only about 200,000 years old.

90:30

That's in history, that's short, okay?

90:33

And and the species and all species

90:36

evolve, okay? And it's very interesting.

90:39

So, that's you know, that's what his

90:41

books are about and you know, I think

90:43

they're very good. And Joseph Campbell's

90:44

The Hero's Journey, the hero with a

90:46

thousand faces.

90:47

>> it's about human nature and and the

90:49

evolution of life and the life journey

90:52

that we're talking about. What I find so

90:53

interesting, Ray, is how you draw on

90:56

principles from other domains, whether

90:58

it's from nature or biology as you were

91:00

talking about there

91:01

to tie in to your work in business and

91:04

investing and everything else and life

91:06

and happiness. And it really says

91:08

something to me about

91:11

being more eclectic and be broadly

91:14

curious in order to be successful in my

91:15

modern Well, I I yeah, I just

91:18

see I I don't is that to me maybe too

91:21

much of a specialist that kind of

91:23

mentality, but the world is being

91:25

interrelated to these things. If you

91:27

want to understand how reality works,

91:31

um you can't say I'm going to be just a

91:33

specialist.

91:35

I mean these are all affected by each

91:37

other. Mhm.

91:39

Thank you so much for write for writing

91:41

these books.

91:42

They are iconic. And uh the YouTube that

91:45

explain these these books are iconic. I

91:48

don't know who you have on your team

91:49

that makes the animations and pulls it

91:51

all together, but not only is the

91:52

content

91:54

so important because they are

91:55

principles, so they're enduring through

91:57

time, but they're so unbelievably

91:59

accessible to all people of all ages.

92:01

And if if you if people haven't read

92:03

this book, I'd be shocked, but um all of

92:06

these books are fantastic. The this book

92:07

Principles by Ray Dalio, which I'm going

92:09

to link all of them below for anyone

92:10

that wants to read them. I suggest you

92:11

read them all.

92:13

Um will be formative in your life even

92:14

if you're not interested in business or

92:16

investing because as as it says in the

92:17

book, they're principles and the

92:19

the economy affects us all in ways that

92:21

we might not understand. We're all

92:23

trying to be successful or happy in our

92:24

own right and that that's interwoven

92:26

into all of these books. So, thank you.

92:27

I hope you write more books.

92:28

>> Well, I and thank you because yeah, I'm

92:30

at a stage in my life. This is a

92:32

symbiotic relationship, otherwise we

92:33

wouldn't be here. Okay? And my um

92:36

my benefit is that I want to pass along

92:39

these things and we're doing it together

92:41

and I have found and it's joyous to me

92:44

to know that these things have made a

92:46

big difference in people's lives. People

92:48

come up to me and they say thank you for

92:50

the difference you've made and you know,

92:51

at this stage in my life, that's what I

92:53

want to do. I think that's an

92:54

understatement. I think it's had a

92:55

profound impact. In fact, every person I

92:57

know, all of my best friends have taken

93:00

something from your work, which has had

93:01

a profound impact on their

93:02

decision-making, which has led them to

93:04

be happier in some way. And when I told

93:05

my friends that I was interviewing you,

93:07

I'm interviewing 16 people while I'm in

93:08

New York over the over the next month.

93:10

When I told my friends, my best friends

93:12

in the world that I'm interviewing you,

93:13

all of them were telling me to pass on a

93:16

message of thanks because there's

93:18

something in one of these books that's

93:19

helped them and they're all young people

93:20

in that first season of their life and

93:22

there's there's something in all of

93:23

these books that's um pushed them closer

93:25

to their success and their happiness.

93:27

So, thank you for on behalf of me cuz

93:28

you've had a profound impact on me, but

93:30

thank

93:30

>> Thank you for giving me that joy.

93:32

I know I mean you know that. Thank you.

93:33

I really really mean that. Thank you so

93:34

much, Ray.

Interactive Summary

Ray Dalio discusses his principles for navigating life and business, emphasizing the importance of understanding long-term cycles in history and economics. He identifies five key forces that drive these cycles: debt, internal social conflict, geopolitical tensions, nature, and technological innovation. Dalio advocates for a pragmatic approach, suggesting individuals build financial strength, remain open-minded, and cultivate meaningful work and relationships. He also explains the role of meditation in fostering reflection and personal evolution, highlighting the value of treating life as a continuous learning process.

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