Wall Street Just Gave a Dire Warning (Most Aren’t Ready)
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August 11th is the most dangerous day
for the stock market this year. And most
people have no idea it's coming. Wall
Street is sharing this research with
their clients right now, but not with
you. And I wasn't going to make this
video, but I was just reading this this
morning as I do. And I think you deserve
to understand this, too, because I know
you've got money in the market. But
first, Wall Street is about to lull
millions of Americans into a false sense
of security. And by the time they really
realize what's happening, it'll be too
late. So, by the end of this video,
you'd understand exactly what's coming,
how to protect yourself, and if you're
paying attention, how to spot one of the
greatest buying opportunities of the
decade. And here's the thing, Wall
Street sends this kind of research to
their hedge fund clients, the
institutional investors, and they charge
tens of thousands of dollars for the
service, but they don't send it to you.
And I believe you deserve to see it,
too. And if you agree with me, I want
you to write the word deserve in the
comments right now so we can all see it.
And
because this is a little impromptu, I'm
also gonna put together a
beginnerfriendly version of this entire
research breakdown. So, you don't need a
finance degree to follow along here.
There's going to be a link down below in
the descriptions. It'll be pinned to the
comments, completely free. Just download
it. And let me be honest about why I
decided to make this video here this
morning. It's there is a dynamic in the
financial world that's been bugging me
for a long time. Wall Street
institutions get information first.
Retail investors, people like you and
me, we get it last. And by the time it
shows up on CNBC or in your news feed,
guess what? The big money has already
made their move. And the point of this
community here is about closing that
gap. It's about making sure you have the
same information that a hedge fund
manager sitting in a corner office in
glorious Manhattan has. So, let me walk
you through exactly what is happening
right now and why August 11th is a date
you need to have circled in your
calendar. So, let's start with what
sounds like incredible news, right?
SpaceX went public and now it's being
added to the biggest index funds in
America, which sounds great, right? More
people owning SpaceX. Price scope is up.
Everybody wins. But let me show you
what's actually happening under the
hood. First, you need to understand what
a float is. And no, it is not a floater.
And I'm going to make this really simple
for you. Imagine a company is a pizza
and the pizza has 100 slices, but only
five of those slices are actually
available for regular people like you
and me to buy on the stock market. The
other 95 slices, they're locked away in
a vault. That is what a 5% Floyd means.
Space X right now is a pizza where 95
slices are locked up and only five are
sitting on the counter. And now here is
where it gets wild. When a stock gets
added to a big index like the NASDAQ 100
or the Russell 1000, every single fund
that tracks that index has to buy
shares. It's not optional. It's not a
choice. It's automatic. It's like a
machine. The fund manager doesn't wake
up and say, "Hm, I feel like buying
SpaceX today." No. The rules say the
stock is in the index, you must own it,
spirit. And there isn't just one index.
So, let me walk you through the
calendar. The funds include Vanguard's
VTI, one of the most popular funds in
the world, and they started adding
shares around June 19th. The Footsie
Russell funds like the Russell 1000
kicked in around June 26th, which is
coming up a few days from me recording
this. Msei funds will kick in around
June 29th and the big one, the NASDAQ
100, which powers the massively popular
QQQ ETF, which most of you probably own.
Those funds start adding around July
6th. Now, add all of that up and you're
looking at 22
to30 billion of buying of just SpaceX.
That has to happen. These funds do not
care about the prices. They're not
looking at charts. They're not doing any
analysis whatsoever. They just buy. It's
like pointing a fire hose at a kiddie
pool, basically. And what does that do
to the price? Well, it almost certainly
causes a short-term rally. So, if you're
holding SpaceX right now, you're
probably feeling like a genius. Your
account's green. Your friends are
texting you, well done, amazing.
Everything looks amazing. But here is no
Wall Street that's counting on you not
paying attention. But before I show you
what happens next, and trust me, you
need to see this. You need to understand
this. I want to take a step back and
zoom out for a second. Do you remember
what happened to the last big IPO boom?
The Airbnb, the coin boss box, the the
the the Roblox, the Rivian struggling to
get a straight sentence out here. Some
people made a lot of money on that, but
a lot of people also lost a lot of money
on that. Some of those stocks went down
70 80% while other people like 10x their
account in a year. So why do the people
make 10x and why did some people lose
money? Well, the people with the 10X,
they had a playbook. And the playbook
worked not just for the IPO, but for the
coming six months, the coming 12 months
after those big IPOs. And we're going to
get some more of those. So, I've already
written out my plan, my exact trading
strategy plan, investing strategy plan
for the next 90 days. Written out. I
know exactly what I'm going to do. And
what I want to do for you is I want to
give that to you. I want to share that
with you, but not as a document because
it won't land. I guarantee it. But as an
actual teaching session where I will sit
you down for two hours and I'll teach
you and I'll walk you through the exact
process, why I'm doing what I'm doing
and what I'm doing is just what Wall
Street is doing, right? It's just what
the funds are doing. I'm not making this
up. I'm just following what my mentors
have taught me. So, this isn't about
SpaceX. This isn't about Anthropic or
any of that. It's about
what happens after these IPOs unwind.
It's what happens in the market after we
get this great big shakeup. And there'll
be two kinds of people here. There'll be
the kind of people who learn this and
there'll be the kind of people who wish
they would have learned this about 6
months from now. So, if you want to join
me on that, I'm going to be doing that
literally just before I'm catching a
flight out of New York here, which is
where I am right now. And um you can
sign up for that. You can grab yourself
a free ticket at 90dayplaybook.org.
So 90playbook.org.
The links are again down below in the
description. It's completely free. You
don't need to put a credit card or
anything like that. It's just a teaching
session. And I'm also going to show you
because July 4th is coming up and July
4th this year is a big deal. I just got
given this from we did a little
mastermind here in New York. Um and one
of our kind students um gave me that as
a present. Uh so 250 years of the United
States of America. Amazing. Uh we're
going to do something to celebrate that
that's going to be bigger, more
generous, more amazing than anything
we've ever ever done in the six years
that we've done this for. So join me on
Saturday morning, New York time, and
you'll understand what this is all
about. The 250 will have something to do
with that. And it'll also work for you
Europeans and and and people in Asia and
everywhere else because it'll be morning
time in New York, you know, when the
market's open usually, but not at a
Saturday. So you guys will be awake as
well. But but let me show you why
understanding this playbook is not an
optional thing. Because what's about to
happen on August 11th is going to catch
a lot of people off guard. Let me
explain something that's called a lock
up period. Because this is the key to
understanding what's coming. When a
company goes public, the insiders, the
founders, the early investors, the
venture capitalists, the cockroaches,
did I say that out loud? Um who invested
years ago? Um they can't just sell their
shares the next day. They are locked up.
It's a little bit like a waiting room.
You're holding very valuable shares, but
there's a sign in the door says you
cannot leave yet. And these locks have
expiry dates. Now, why the lock exists
in the first place? Simple. Without
them, insiders would dump their shares
on day one. The price would crash and
nobody would ever trust an IPO again.
So, the SEC essentially says, "You have
to wait. You can't sell right away."
It's sort of a protection mechanism for
the public, apparently. So the most
important thing about it that people
don't realize is lockup expirations are
not one big event. SpaceX uses a fairly
complex staggered system. It's like a
series of release valves. Each one
letting more shares into the market at
different times. So let me walk you
through the full unlock schedule and my
team will hopefully put that on the on
the on the screen here for you because
this is the countdown you need to know.
You're going to want to write this down.
So right now only 5% of all SpaceX
shares are available to trade. Right?
That's our kiddie pool. August 11th the
supply jumps from 5% to 25%.
That is five times more in a single day.
And this is the big one. This is the
date you must circle in your diary. And
then yes August 21st it becomes 32%.
September uh 10th it becomes 39%.
September 25th it becomes 46%, October
10th becomes 53% and so on. But the most
important one is the first one because
you have this kitty pool of shares right
now and on August 11th someone's going
to open the floodgates five times more
shares hit the market overnight. And who
do you think is selling insiders? The
people who got in at 10 bucks a share,
they've been waiting for years for this
thing. So some of them are not going to
sell because they think the company is
bad. I'm gonna upload this particular
video with one of these bad boys, which
is just amazing. Starink, incredible.
They're selling because they want to
diversify their portfolio. They want to
buy another house, another yacht, you
know, um send the fourth mistress some
money finally. And then they're going to
have to pay some taxes on that. So, they
have some reason to take money off the
table. And who's on the other side of
that trade? What is you, the retail
investor who just got pulled in by the
index fund? Yeah, you are all going to
own SpaceX. Every single one of you is
going to own SpaceX. Basically, your
401k will own it. Your retirement
accounts, your index funds bought SpaceX
for you. And you might not have even
realized it. Now, the insider is about
to sell directly into your buying. This
isn't a theory, right? Let me talk to
you about Facebook. Go back a few years.
Facebook had its IPO in May of 2012.
When the first lockup expired 3 months
later, the stock fell about 50%. The
smartest company in social media, a
company that everybody knew was going to
dominate, lost half of its value. Not
because the business was bad, the
business was phenomenal. It dropped
because of supply mechanics. Too much
water into that kiddie pool. So more
shares hit the market than buyers could
absorb. And the key insight here is
this. I need you to really hear this.
Wall Street creates a demand with the
index inclusions and then the insiders
sell into that demand. It's not a
conspiracy theory. It's not illegal. No,
it's just how the machine works and
they're counting on you to not
understand the time. But this isn't even
a SpaceX problem. It is a market problem
and it goes way deeper than one stock.
So, if we zoom out for a little bit
because what I want to show you could
and should concern every single person
who has a retirement account, right? You
got a retirement account, put a
retirement in in in the comments down
below. Right now, the top 10 stocks in
the S&P 500, mostly AI and tech
companies, make up roughly 40% of the
index. So, four of every $10 in the S&P
500 is sitting in just 10 companies.
Right? So, if I give you some
perspective on that, and maybe we can
put a chart on the screen here for you
as well. Between 1990 and 2015, the top
10 stocks were about 20% of the market.
That was a normal range for 25 years.
Now we're at double that concentration.
Does that sound healthy to you? Does
that sound diversified? So why does it
matter to you? Well, if you own an S&P
500 index fund, and very likely you do.
It's going to be in your 401k, your IRA.
You know, maybe you bought it yourself.
You probably think, I'm diversified. I
own 500 companies. Isn't that brilliant?
But in reality, almost half your money
is sitting in just 10 stocks. So, you're
not really owning 500 companies equally.
You're making a massive bet on 10. And I
want to walk you through every time this
has happened before because this is the
part where history screams at us and we
refuse to listen. Let's go back to 1870.
Railroads. Railroads made up 63% of the
entire US stock market. They were the AI
of, you know, the 19th century. And
everyone said, "Oh, it's the future. you
can't lose. Railroads are going to
transform America. And they were right.
Railroads did transform America, but the
crash that followed devastated a
generation of investors. The technology
was real. The prices went up. Fast
forward about a 100 years to 1972. There
was something there called the Nifty50.
It was a group of about 50 blue chip
stocks. Coca-Cola, Disney, McDonald's,
Polaroid, Xerox, the absolute safest and
most trusted names in America. And
actually I do have peroid camera lying
around here somewhere. But it makes me
an odd bot. Right now the advice Wall
Street was given was giving people then
was just just buy them and hold them
forever. They are one decision stocks.
You buy them once and you never ever
sell them. They were trading at an
average of about 42 times their profits.
Some had 80 times profits. And then 1973
came about. Inflation spiked like it
just did in the US. Interest rates were
rising, a recession set in, and the Dow
dropped 45%.
Worst decline since the Great
Depression. Disney fell like 87%.
Like the Mickey Mouse company, right?
Children, everybody in everyone in the
world love them. They lost almost 90% of
their value. Polaroid fell 91% and went
bankrupt. Avon fell 86%. Xerox fell 71%.
McDonald's fell over 70%. And these were
not speculative garbage companies. And
these were the absolute safest blue
chips in America. Great companies,
terrible prices. And then there's Japan
in 1989. And I'm seeing that parallel
more and more. Japanese stocks hit a
peak. And it took 30 years to recover
that peak. Think about that. An entire
generation of investors waiting their
entire adult lives just to go back to
break even. And then we had the dot
bubble. The NASDAQ peaked in March 2000.
By October of 20 2002, it had fallen
78%. I started investing in 1999. It was
fun. It really wasn't. And honestly,
it's one of the reasons I do this
because I remember the pain very very
distinctly and that took 15 years to
recover as well. 15 years of waiting if
you bought at the top. So the pattern is
there. Every generation thinks this time
it's different. The technology changes,
the companies change, but the human
psychology, the greed, the fear, the
FOMO, right? The cycle that never
changes. The pattern isn't broken. We
just forget about it. And now we got
SpaceX, the most hyped IPO in a decade.
It's being crammed into these same
concentrated indices. Your index fund
isn't diversifying you anymore. Nodes
doubling down on the same crowded trade.
So, yes, this market is very, very
concentrated. insiders are going to dump
some of these shares and your index
funds just force bought the most hyped
stock in a decade. Sounds kind of grim,
right? But this is also how and where
fortunes are made. You see, because
everything I just told you sounds scary,
and it sort of should, but what
separates the people who build wealth
from the people who don't is the people
who build wealth don't just see the
risk, they see the road map. They see
the path. Every IPO in history follows
the same script. I don't think SpaceX
will be all that different. And once you
understand that script, you don't have
to be the victim. You can be one of the
ones buying when everyone else is
running for the exits. Because think
about
the com bust. If you bought after the
bust, you became tremendously wealthy.
In fact, you had 15 years to buy after
the bust and you became tremendously
wealthy. But people don't because
they're like, "Oh my, the market isn't
going up. I'm not going to buy it." And
why is that? Because fear kicks in. Fear
replaces greed. And the people who
bought at the top, they sell. They
panic. They capitulate. And the losses
get locked in. And the institutions,
they don't buy during the hype. They buy
after the hype. After the price has been
beaten down, after the people who
panicked and bought at the top for FOMO
left. The smart investors, the hedge
funds, the sovereign wealth funds, they
have patient capital. So they can buy on
a red day. And they also bring
credibility, which means more people are
going to buy it because they're going to
read about it 3 months later in the
filings. So they're buying creates a
flaw under the stock, a new level of
support that wasn't there before. And
then people start to look at the market
again and go, "Well, maybe it isn't so
bad. These guys are buying." And then,
you know, the whole thing starts again.
The market is a cycle. It's a pattern.
It happens again and again and again.
And that's why there is a road map.
That's why there is literally a road map
for the next 90 days. If you want to
learn what that road map is based on the
very principles that the institutional
investors use, institutional traders
use, come and join me on Saturday. Learn
it. There's a link down below to it. And
that road map hasn't changed in 50
years. Not one bit. I know because I've
got mentors who learned this 50 years
ago. They're a little bit older than me.
And the only thing that really changes
is that which retail investors learned
the lesson. And right now SpaceX is
somewhere in that phase of like boom and
starting to come down a little bit.
Let's see what the index funds inclusion
does in the next few days. And then we
get that float which means all that
supply of shares hits the market and and
maybe you're thinking, "Oh, it's all
rigged. It's all manipulated."
Well, it's an opinion, but it doesn't
change anything. So, you are an
investor. You are a money manager.
you've got money in the market, even if
it's just sitting in your 401k and the
market is running the same script has
been running for 50 years and it doesn't
care whether you read the script. So,
what do we do with all this information?
How do we act on this? Well, let me give
you a simple framework here. Three
scenarios, three action plans. Find the
one that fits you the best and we're
going to go a lot deeper obviously on
Saturday because we have two hours to do
it. Say you bought shares in the IPO um
or maybe just after the IPO in the open
market. So, here's your checklist. First
understand the unlock schedule. I'd
literally print it out and put it on
your wall. August 11th is the first
major event there. Right, Mark? Every
day through October 25th, know when
supply is increasing, so you're not
caught off guard. Second, understand
your risk. How much of your total
portfolio is in SpaceX? If it's more
than 5 to 10%, that is not a diversified
investment. That is some sort of I love
Elon concentrated bet. And concentrated
bets can go wrong in a very, very big
way. Third, consider trimming before
August 11th. Now, I'm not a financial
adviser. I'm not a registered investment
adviser. I'm not telling you what to do.
I'm just saying think about these
things. You got to come to an informed
decision. And most people don't think
about these things, which makes us, you
know, kind of normal retail investors.
So, I'm not saying panic sell it. I'm
just saying strategically review your
position while the price is where it is.
Maybe you're happy. Maybe you want to
realize some of those gains. And if you
believe in SpaceX in the long term, and
there are plenty of reasons to, right,
you can always re-enter SpaceX in what I
call phase four at a potentially much
lower price. Now, the price might not go
down. It's also a possibility. And you
got to live with that uncertainty and
you got to live with like missing out on
stuff because it'll happen every single
day. It happens every single week. There
are plenty of stocks last week that went
up, you know, 30, 50, 80%. And you
didn't know they were there. You missed
out on them. That's okay. We got to
accept that, right? We don't need to
take advantage of every opportunity. But
if you just look at it that like that
what I just said, you're starting to
play the game more like institutions.
And finally, set some alerts. Know your
exit points before your emotions kick
in. Decide now when you're calm and
thinking clearly, not later when the
stock's down 30%. And you're then
panicking when you want to sell, when
you want to buy more, what your plan is.
And this applies to you even if you own
VTI, VO, QQQ, target date funds, or
pretty much any broad market fund
because what most people don't realize
is you're about to own SpaceX whether
you want to or not. Your index fund is
buying it automatically. You didn't
choose it. The index rules did. So,
should you sell your index fund? No.
It's extreme. Index investing is still
one of the best long-term strategies for
most people. It's a very simple thing to
do. You buy it, you forget about it. But
you need to be aware of what's happening
inside your fund. It is no longer a
broadly diversified fund. It is a tech
fund. So the concentration risk is
something you need to understand. And if
you then run out in addition, you buy
tech stocks. Well, is that really a good
idea? Right? So you know what did I buy
last week? Appperal companies for
example, um random stuff, pipeline
companies, that sort of thing. stuff
that has almost no AI connection because
I want to diversify a little bit and on
a day when the NASDAQ's down 3%
and I'm at zero, I'm winning, right? And
I can sleep better and I know my money
is protected and I'm not exposed like
some people are who by then down 10 or
20 or 30%. Which just means you're
taking on far too much risk. So consider
adding diversification outside of those
big US tech stocks. Anything that
doesn't move in lock step with AI
basically. And if you're that long-term
investor and you got that 10 year, 20
year time horizon, just don't look at
your account every single day. The
market corrects and your safe index
funds feel that correction hard because
of how concentrated they are. Remember
that corrections can also be buying
opportunities if your time horizon is
long enough, right? And I also do that.
So when we have those dips, I think in
February we had the last big one. I just
bought the index, right? It didn't need
to be right. It was just profitable,
right? Last year, May, after the tariff
thing, you know, just buy the bloody
index. I I don't know what stock's going
to go up, so just buy the bloody index
on those moments. And that can be very,
very profitable. So, don't let a red day
destroy your portfolio or your 20-year
plan. But if you are in group three and
you haven't bought SpaceX and you're not
sure what to do, maybe you're feeling
left out watching everybody else get
excited, maybe you think it's totally
overpriced. Um, my advice, and this is
actually probably the only piece of
advice in this video, is good, be
patient. There is a buying opportunity
for everything. And you don't need to
own everything. You don't need to own
Tesla. You don't need to own Nvidia. You
don't need to own these stocks. you
probably do through your index funds
anyway. And that's what I'm saying.
You're probably gonna expo get exposure
to this anyway, whether you want to or
not. So maybe you just don't need to
focus on SpaceX, right? But instead,
what I'd say to you is use this time to
learn. Study the playbook. Study what's
coming. How understand how these lockups
work. read the research I'm attaching to
this video so that when the phase comes
where stuff hits the fan in a bad way
and it'll come. It'll come and it might
be 12 months from now. It might be 18
months from now. At that point, you want
to be ready to act without emotion but
with a plan. And honestly, boring is
where fortunes are made. The most
unsexy, most overlooked phase of any
investment cycle is where the real money
is made. But you have to be prepared
before it arrives. They have to
understand how it works before it
arrives. If you wait until it's obvious,
you've already missed it. And look,
everything I just taught you, the index
fund mechanics, the lockup schedule, the
the the playbook, we just covered that
as a on a very high level. We're going
to go much deeper on that on Saturday if
you join me. Links down below. The
concentration risk and everything else.
This isn't just about SpaceX. It's the
framework for every major IPO phase.
It's the framework for every mega major
market phase. work for Facebook and
Amazon and Google and Uber and Airbnb
and all of those and it'll work for the
next SpaceX five years from now. So,
it's not about memorizing one stock.
It's about understanding how the market
actually works. The machinery behind the
curtain so you're never surprised again.
So, let's do a quick recap. First alarm
bell, $30 billion in forced buying is
about to slam into a 5% float of SpaceX,
right? Fire hose into Kitty Pool. Alarm
bell 2, August 11th. Insiders unlock
five times the current supply, billions
in potential selling, aimed directly at
the retail investor. But there's a butt
there I should probably mention. A lot
of these guys are very wealthy who own a
lot of SpaceX and they don't like paying
a lot of tax. So they're going to borrow
against their shares. They're going to
do some option strategies to protect
their shares and that'll still but to
press the price somewhat but it won't be
as blatant as obvious as as selling. And
then alarm bell three is the top 10
stocks up 40% of the market. The same
concentration level that preceded the
Nifty crash, the dot crash and every
major correction in modern history. So,
if you learned something in this video,
if it changed, how about how you think
about your portfolio? Well, share it
with somebody so more people can learn
this. And I apologize this maybe a
little bit less structure than it than
than it ought to be. I just thought this
is something really really important and
worth sharing. And join me on Saturday.
Again, I wasn't going to do that
training because I'm about to hop on a
flight straight afterwards, but I think
it is that important. And
show up for yourself. Grab yourself that
free seat. Share that link with other
people who might also benefit from from
real financial education and
we'll help to empower you so you can
make better decisions so you know what's
coming so you can be a winner in what is
coming rather than be sitting on the
sidelines of FOMO buying into something
which is usually where most people sit.
Now thank you for watching and I wish
you a beautiful week. Some of the
biggest and most profitable tech stocks
have barely moved in two years while the
NASDAQ has exploded up by 70% in the
same period. And that has created a
powder.
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The video warns that August 11th is the most dangerous day for the stock market this year, specifically due to SpaceX. It reveals that Wall Street shares critical research with clients but not with the public. SpaceX's recent addition to major index funds, like the NASDAQ 100, is creating a massive, automated buying frenzy ($22-30 billion) for a stock with only 5% of its shares (float) available. However, a significant "lockup period" for insiders expires on August 11th, releasing five times more shares (from 5% to 25% of total supply) into the market. This scenario, where insiders sell into artificially inflated demand, is compared to historical market crashes like the dot-com bubble or Facebook's IPO aftermath, which saw a 50% drop. The speaker also highlights the current high concentration of the S&P 500 (40% in top 10 tech stocks) as a major risk, reminiscent of past bubbles (railroads, Nifty50, Japan 1989). While this situation presents significant risks, it also creates generational buying opportunities for informed investors who follow a strategic "playbook" instead of succumbing to fear or FOMO. Investors are advised to understand the unlock schedule, assess their risk, consider trimming concentrated positions, and diversify their portfolios to navigate the upcoming market shifts.
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