In terms of American politics, what this

means is the following. J.D. Vance will

not be president.

>> [music]

>> Hi everyone. This is Pivot from New York

Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast

Network. I'm Kara Swisher.

>> And I'm Scott Galloway.

>> Before we get into it today, a reminder

to check out our YouTube channel. Be

sure to like the videos and subscribe.

We're we're into the YouTube situation

and we're also in Roku. We're a lot of

places. We've got a lot to get to today.

So, Donald Trump is defending his deal

to end the war in Iran saying critics

who think he hasn't been tough enough

are jealous, bad people, or stupid. His

comments come after he signed the

memorandum of understanding or MOU at

the Palace of Versailles on Wednesday,

which was the most epic troll by Macron

I've ever seen. He lured him there with

gold and and it's the place, of course,

where the Germans

signed

the

World War I accord. So, let's talk about

the Treaty of Versailles. Let's talk

about some of the terms of this

agreement. The Strait of Hormuz will

open immediately and Iran be allowed to

sell its oil freely. Also, they'll get

some sort of fees which didn't exist

before. Every It's exactly the Obama

deal, but worse essentially. The US will

end I mean, Obama got a lot more stuff

and paid a lot

paid a lot less and nobody died and

there wasn't the impact on the economy

globally and in the United States. The

US will end sanctions on Iran and

unfreeze assets. The $300 billion fund

will be established to help rebuild

Iran, though Trump says the US will not

contribute to it. Iran agrees to not

procure or develop a nuclear weapon, but

before

the Obama agreement was much more

stringent.

The deal is set to be officially signed

on Friday. It's not a final agreement.

Doesn't seem much has been agreed at

all. The two sides have 60 days to

negotiate a longer-term deal. Either

side can walk away.

The Republicans are

are not liking it and those who are

trying to defend it are pretzeling

themselves. You know, he's lost the

support of all manner of people

including Ben Shapiro,

Tucker Carlson of course,

lots of Republicans Bill Cassidy and

many others are like this is a piece of

[ __ ] deal. They're saying it out loud.

Senator Kennedy,

you know, the Democrats don't have to

say anything and even Fox News is

attacking him. Thoughts on the situation

cuz

someone Donnie Deutsch said, you know, I

was for this you know, this attack on

Iran but now this is like [ __ ] He

reminded me of you the way he talked

about it but any thoughts?

>> Yeah, I've got on it. I I thought there

was real legitimate rationale for

military action.

There's just no doubt about it. Hillary

Clinton talks about the dominion of

failure and I find this fascinating.

>> great?

Explain that for the people the dominion

of failure.

>> Well, just to relate to it on an

individual level. Have you ever been at

a you know, you're in a conversation

with family or dinner

and you say something and someone

disagrees and you double down and then

you find yourself 2 months later

defending and going deeper into a

position that you probably realize was

wrong.

>> Yeah.

>> But you've doubled down and you keep

going further and further and

unfortunately the American public

rewards that doubling down as opposed to

being contemplative and recognizing that

a step back from the wrong direction is

a step in the right direction.

>> Right. Right. Correct.

>> And we've basically told our politicians

never admit you're wrong. Double down.

Never acknowledge that things have not

worked out the way we'd hoped and we

need to change course.

And just to go to the Quanaquo memo of

understanding, let's start with the term

memo of understanding.

>> Right.

>> Memo of understanding is a business

term.

And I have written and received dozens

of memos of understanding and this is

what they are.

If you're thinking usually in a business

context about acquiring a firm or doing

a large deal

you outline general parameters. Okay,

this is what you do.

>> correct?

>> Well, you you you identify ranges. This

is what you do, this is what we do,

we're interested in acquiring you.

And this is kind of evaluation range

subject to the following conditions.

These are the people who would stick

around. You kind of outline to basically

say,

"We need to at least agree on some

basics before we get serious and start

conducting diligence and papering a

deal." And it means not I would bet that

somewhere between a third and maybe 50%

of memos of understanding are

consummated in a legally enforceable

deal.

And that's the same thing here. It is

This is obvious. They said uh Trump

wanted an agreement. And they said,

"We'll give you a memo of understanding

because we know you're on your way out.

This will not be enforceable." I don't

even think we can get into uh

conversation around how terrible this

deal is, including the fact that it

doesn't include random inspections. It's

gone from 1 and 1/2 billion in the JCPOA

to 300 billion. And that sounds like a

>> People have died.

>> VC opportunity for Whitcoff and Kushner.

The fact that they've essentially

have not have a have a have an opening

to start charging tolls again. This

isn't an equivalent deal. This is a much

worse deal. But here's the thing, it's

not even a deal, Cara.

>> Yeah.

>> It's a memo of un

>> Yeah.

It's a deal that sounds sketchy.

>> But this morning it was announced that

Mexico has presented the US with a memo

of understanding and they're taking back

Phoenix.

I mean, this is so

This is

Here is the reality.

>> Phoenix, but go ahead, sorry.

>> We drew from a deal,

fought a stupid war or apparently a

stupid war with 13 people dead, hundreds

injured, thousands of Iranians killed.

>> Let's not forget those school girls that

got accidentally killed.

>> Alienated allies,

uh weakened our relationship with Gulf

nations,

provided accidentally Iran with insight

into a weapon more powerful than a

nuclear arm destabilize the global

economy such that we could get a much

worse deal. In terms of American

politics, what this means is the

following. J.D. Vance will not be

president.

>> Oh, no, Trump keeps trying to hang it

around his neck.

>> The president is throwing Vice President

Vance under the bus.

>> No, he's just he's just his servant to

go there and do it.

>> Basically, he has sent the equivalent of

a I don't know, a reputational mob and

noose for the latest vice president. He

is hanging Vice President Vance.

>> He's pencing him. He's pencing him.

>> The most conservative Republicans

are saying this is a terrible deal.

>> Right. The comparison between the

comparative list between the Obama deal

and this and you're like, what? We lost

all this stuff? Like, what why? Um and

you know, he had the advantage when he

just say bombed some of the the areas,

right? He had the what we're watching

you kind of thing happening, which I

think was strong. I agree with you. When

the original bombing of those um even if

they didn't take them out, they didn't

completely and totally I don't know why

he had to say that. He could have just

said we we set them back again and we're

going to keep doing that if they keep

developing nuclear weapons.

Um but that was good and then he

couldn't resist because of the as you

said, the person on his shoulder is

Jeffrey Epstein and so he wanted to do

something after Venezuela, he felt

emboldened. Um and did this. Like, this

is this is to me, I don't think I don't

think you're right. He is hanging J.D.

Vance out to dry, but this is hanging on

him. This doesn't come off.

>> Oh, I agree. He won't be able to escape

this.

>> he isn't escape it. He can't blame it on

anybody. He's He looked

>> He's in charge.

>> Let me just tell you, he looked real old

and at the G7. Like, they kept moving

him around and he was sort of wandering

more than usual, usually wanders, but he

was wandering, he looked sickly, he

looked kankly, his hands looked like

suddenly there's all these cuts on his

hands.

Um, you know, Macron was wandering

moving around like he was an elderly

parent at a at a old folks home, which I

thought Macron did on purpose cuz he

looked fantastic, right? He was fit and

lively and stuff like that, but Macron

was looking like he was his friend but

made him look elderly sitting next to

him, and I think he was. And then the

Versailles thing, oh my god, did nobody

on his team understand the symbolism and

the marketing of that thing? And I know

only

I mean, it's just he's so

dumb. Like that's the whole thing. Like

he just continues to get I think this

will all hang on him. You're seeing the

the polling is off down and you know,

they think Georgia is going to be going

to be all Democrat, which is unheard of.

They Texas is now absolutely in play.

He's going to have the worst two years

of his life after November, just the

worst. I think it's going to go on and

on and on. This is one thing, the algae

is another, the Kennedy Center, it's all

like this old man. Like I I I think we

have to seriously talk about whether he

had a stroke or not. And you know, we

did this with Biden and I think it's

fully appropriate to discuss it at this

point.

>> agree on the non-important stuff. I

think I think Trump looks remarkably

robust for a guy of his age. I don't I

don't see

any degradation or I should say any

change in his cognitive ability. And his

cognitive ability at 76 was

exceptionally poor judgment from a

narcissist who doesn't care about

anything

but himself and coming across as strong

and that he is arguably im- or

verifiably a terrible

business person. I I think he's the same

person he was four eight years ago and

that is someone with absolutely terrible

judgment that that diminishes our power

soft and hard abroad. Let's talk

specifically about the JCPOA. It

required Iran This is the deal that that

the Obama administration and Iran

signed. It required Iran to reduce its

enriched uranium stockpile by 98%

dismantle 2/3 of its centrifuges cap

enrichment at 3.7% and accept IAEA

monitoring. The 2026 MOU contains no

nuclear constraints at all, just a

pledge never to build a weapon.

>> A pledge from the IRGC? That's worth a

lot.

>> Which Iran already made when it signed

the non-proliferation treaty in 19 70.

The key here, quite frankly, is

verification and inspection. And let's

compare the two. The JCPOA had IAEA

inspectors, continuous monitoring, and

24-day access provisions. The MOU defers

all of this to a 60-day negotiating

window with no guarantees.

Think of this in consumer

>> No leverage.

>> We have no leverage.

>> paying more for less. The MOU comes with

a $25 billion price tag, released

assets, plus a $300 billion

reconstruction framework, exceeding the

JCPOA's cost while delivering fewer

nuclear concessions. This, in two words,

is a [ __ ] disaster

for the American brand.

And it I I I got to be honest, I'm going

to enjoy watching all these acolytes in

and

>> Well, they're not.

>> and weirdos try to try to explain this

one away.

>> Well, they are only a few are, but many

more are being quite explicit. Like, you

didn't have to hear a Democrat yesterday

cuz all the Republicans were saying it,

right? They were like they said I was

like I was listening to the television I

was packing for this trip to France and

I'm like, oh, another Democrat and I

looked and it was a Republican senator.

It was like so vehement, right? It was

so except for one who was trying to

defend it, but it was very hard. Like

you could see them Fox News has been

very

tough for top men. Of course, Wall

Street Journal is like strafing him. Um

which is a Murdoch property. So, I I

don't know. I feel like all of the and I

I I'm going to disagree with you on his

health. I think something happened and

he he he's still

>> It very well could.

>> looks [clears throat] robust, but his

physical demeanor and the way he

wandered around

>> specialists who's saying yeah.

>> All the specialists and I felt like

Macron knows exactly what's happening

because he cuz he kept he kept

you it's how you move an elderly person

if you like as my mom got got less

mobile,

she was in that zone that Trump is in

and she was mobile and very robust as

you know, my mother never shuts up. Um

but it was like and then it started to

crumble essentially, but we'll we'll

see. Anyway, it's a bad deal.

>> wanted I just wanted to briefly and you

put out a great chart on this, but at

the end of the JCPOA when he tore when

he tore up the agreement

Iran had enriched uranium to 3.7%.

It is now 60%. Just a short step away

from weapons grade material.

Uh US military leverage given away. This

memo of understanding

commits the US to not increasing its

regional forces with Washington or the

US withdrawing forces within 30 days of

a final agreement. We typically that's

not negotiable for us. One of our key

advantages is we have these things

called aircraft carriers that we can put

anywhere in the world to deliver

violence on an unprecedented level which

is an enormous advantage that we're

giving up. The other thing that people

aren't talking about or the press isn't

talking about

is that the JCPOA was multilateral.

It was signed by the US, the EU, the UK,

France, Germany, China, and Russia.

Whereas this is bilateral. So, if they

walk away from this it doesn't impair

their ability to sell oil, do business

with all these nations. Whereas the

JCPOA was the entire Western world and

China and Russia saying, you have to

stick to this agreement.

>> He can't clean fountains and he can't do

wars. You know, and then he the thing he

said that that the that press

conference, go watch that press

conference, Scott. You will have another

thought about his mental health.

>> Mhm.

>> Um and uh he goes, "Well, we'll just

bomb them." And I'm like, "What? Like

that's your plan? Like we'll just bomb

them if they don't keep up that It's

just it it's it's just it's so

embarrassing. And I you know, the

Republicans know it. And I think he's

going to he's he's in for a world of

hurt. And Epstein's roaring its way

back, of course. The New York Times did

a great piece. Um very briefly, I want

to say the Ukrainian bombings in Moscow,

whoa.

>> Absolutely wild.

>> That has shifted rather significantly.

Putin's the other one that's got to be

on the ropes, I would imagine. As I

said, I thought I'd heard from people

that he was.

>> Well, well, I mean, just a couple

thoughts. One, that is the most exciting

positive thing happening in the world

right now.

>> I agree.

>> Is that the West has a huge victory.

Your Europe deserves incredible credit

for being steadfast, which is in their

interest economically.

And also the learning from both Iran and

the war in Ukraine is the following.

Our military budget should be cut in

half, and it should be focused on one

word, asymmetric warfare.

>> Asymmetric warfare, yeah.

>> It is expensive platforms that risk too

much where we can't There's no way we're

sending 50 B-2s into a hostile area. We

Because America doesn't have the stomach

or the money to lose

>> on HIMARS or lose its soldiers. Whereas,

if you build

basically what are go-karts or

motorcycles with bombs on them, and you

send 50 out and 48 get shot down, but

two make it through, this has totally

changed the game of warfare. And how do

we turn chicken salad into chicken salad

fricassee or something even better?

Is this is the opportunity, and America

needs this. This is how [ __ ] stupid

the administration is. Oh, wait,

warfare's changing. Let's increase the

expensive platforms and the monetization

of our military and defense by

increasing our military budget by 400

billion. We should be thinking about

opportunities to take our military

budget down to 500 billion and making it

more lethal and more deadly with

asymmetric warfare. That is the learning

here and they aren't taking the

learning.

>> Yeah, they aren't No, they aren't.

Anyway, I think it's a disastrous week

for Trump as you and I a truly

disastrous one. Anyway, Scott, the

reflecting pool. I wanted to ignore

this, but it's crazy. The paint's coming

off today. This $14 million renovation,

they put this American flag blue

on it and they

Trump insisted on it. When there's other

problems with that thing, it's for years

and years, you know, like all fountains,

all pools have problems. Um and this is

a big freaking pool. Um but it it's

usually just the the stone color and he

had painted it this color and and it's

turned algae green. There's algae

everywhere. Now the paint is coming off.

There were pictures this morning. The

Interior Department says it was a

residual algae from the supply lines

that were sitting there while the pool

was being renovated. Most people say

this is nonsense. Uh any pool All these

pool people are weighing in, which I'm

enjoying very much. Um they're deploying

quote high-tech nano bubble ozone

technology to combat this.

Except workers were seen pouring bottles

of hydrogen peroxide into the pool

earlier this

by hand. Um some experts say the pool's

new color has worsened the pre-existing

issues. Darker blue absorbs sunlight

increasing water temperature making the

pool ripe for algae.

Um apparently there's phosphates in it.

It's like

it's ridiculous and what a [ __ ] mess

up because they picked the wrong people

to do this. They shouldn't have painted

it. It's a very much Trump sort of like

lack of transparency, overly expensive

and badly done. But I want to talk about

bad messaging because this is the

reflecting pool, which is the head of

the 250 celebration. That's our center

of along with the Washington Monument,

the Lincoln Memorial. You know, that

those are symbolically beautiful and

actually much visited during the 4th of

July and it's going to look like [ __ ]

Talk about it from a brand Is there a

branding perspective? It's getting a lot

of traction.

Usually I think these things are silly,

but this one I'm like, yeah, this really

he [ __ ] this up like royally in a way

that seems ridiculous.

Anyway, your thoughts.

>> Yeah, look, the the analogy here, the

symbolism is pretty strong. I would

argue that the reflecting pool is

actually what doing its job and

reflecting what's going on 500 ft away.

I

By the way, I stared into a reflecting

pool for too long and it made me think.

>> [laughter]

>> I don't

Uh I I feel like it's been staring the

reflecting pool has been staring at

Congress for several hundred years and

it's just finally given up.

>> Yeah.

>> And it went full moss. Um

I I don't know. What do you

>> It's a I think it's symbolically it's

for a lot of people. Most kids have gone

to the reflecting Americans when they go

on trips to Washington. If you get to go

to on a trip to Washington as many

people do, it's just like everything

about it is like, can you do anything

that doesn't suck? Like it's it's sort

of

even though it's just the pool, it's the

easiest thing to fix in all the many

things that are hard in this country and

to [ __ ] it up this royally is really

quite something I think. You know, it's

it does it's a messaging of sort of this

old man who is addled, who overspends

our money. It's all tax money and we're

going to have to pay for whether it's

cleaning up the East Wing, whether these

physical things and you had talked about

this, the the destruction of the East

Wing or what he did at the Kennedy

Center with the name coming down. It's

just it's all like destruction we're

going to have to clean up after this you

know, this elderly toddler essentially.

>> Yeah, I was asked I was on a podcast

yesterday and they asked me what I

thought about

the reflecting pool in DC turning green

and I said, no notes. I mean

it's

the metaphor, the analogy, whatever. it

It's just It's just perfect.

>> Anyway, algae, bad messaging because

just it's just sort of piles on. Okay,

Scott, let's go on a quick break and we

come back, we'll discuss SpaceX's busy

first week as a public company.

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goteleport.com/pivot.

Scott, we're back. Let's go through a

rundown of the latest SpaceX news. As we

tape, shares are down 6.5% to $179,

valuing the company at 2.35 trillion,

which is what it was when we last

talked. Shares surged around 50% in the

first days of trading, making SpaceX the

fifth largest company by market cap,

surpassing Amazon. Tuesday was the first

day that investors could buy SpaceX

options contracts, and about 1.8 million

contracts changed hands. And amidst all

this, SpaceX announced it will acquire

AI coding startup Cursor for $60 billion

in an all-stock transaction. I thought

this was rather smart. Cursor's annual

sales recently hit 4 billion, making it

a reliable source of revenue. It also

gets them up to speed in enterprise. It

moves It takes the shitty product of

Grok and makes it, you know, this is a

smart move. This is a very typical Elon

move is to buy

uh something to get ahead, and I thought

that was smart. Um

In another win for Musk, the DOJ told a

Mississippi federal court that it should

throw out a lawsuit against XAI, saying

it is

it has the right to run dozens of gas

burning turbines despite not having

permits for them. I'm not sure this is a

victory for Musk. I think this is going

to come back to bite him. Before we get

to our own thoughts, let's hear from our

friend and founding partner of Puck,

Bill Cohan.

>> Hey, uh Kara and Scott. So, SpaceX, I

mean, I think that, you know, Scott has

been nailing this for, you know, weeks

now, which is that it's one great

business, Starlink, which is the

fabulous business, and kind of

revolutionizing the world in many ways,

and one glamorous business, the rocket

business

uh and one lousy business uh uh X and

XAI that they crammed in there uh and

one a

astounding

uh valuation uh with you know infinite

multiples because only Starlink is

really profitable uh and uh it's just uh

the latest example frankly of the Wall

Street hype machine that you know is so

so good at uh hyping up uh stocks that

um and companies that need to raise huge

amounts of capital. I mean you got to

give Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley

credit for uh you know raising $85

billion of equity and getting this thing

launched at a huge uh valuation 2.5

trillion now

uh exceeding Amazon uh and it's been

trading up although for the last couple

of days it's been trading down so maybe

we've uh at a minor peak and maybe as

usual uh it'll be the retail investors

that get left holding the bag here.

>> And of course uh a bunch of lockups come

off over the next couple of months.

Scott, how do you feel now and talk

about the acquisition of Cursor? Uh I

think it's smart. I do. I think the the

thing in the data centers is a mistake

on the government's part to do that cuz

I think people are truly mad but your

thoughts?

>> Look, the IPO is nothing short of

remarkable and the fact that it it's

gone up so much. I mean it topped a

touch today but I think it's up what is

it up 30 or 40% since initially priced?

Kind of the game now is

for the first whatever 100 years of the

market CEOs were compensated to under

promise and over deliver.

And the last 30 or 40 years or 20 years

at least it's been over promise, get

your stock up based on these incredible

projections of the future and then use

that cheap capital to pull the future

future forward by investing at a rate no

one else can match.

>> Right. Yeah, and they're using they're

using this inflated stock.

>> Or go acquire companies. So, for

example, with Cursor, and it Cursor's a

really good company.

And they're buying it

um

they're buying it at a multiple

of What is it? Uh I think they're buying

it at a multiple of 15 times revenues.

And so, when SpaceX is trading at 130

times revenues, it's accretive.

So, a $60 billion acquisition, which is

a lot of money, but that gives them a

really strong company

that really strong AI coding tool that

has 26% share for a 3 and 1/2% dilution

of that crazy 2 and 1/2 trillion dollar

market cap. So,

>> Right. And it makes the Grok story go

away, the Grok failure story go away.

>> I mean, when you are sitting on a

company, a stock that's at 130 times

revenues, you tell every investment bank

and you tell your corporate dev people,

"Anything that makes sense, buy it."

>> What would you give me a name? What

should he buy?

>> Oh, [ __ ] Kara. I don't know en- enough

about the AI space.

>> Tesla in there, as I said he would.

>> Well, yeah, that's not an acquisition.

That's him stuffing another

>> what would you Is there a

>> That's adopting one of the dwarfs so you

can continue to sleep with Snow White.

I think we're going to see a lot I think

the M&A space

I think I think if you're any investment

bank that says, "I have this cool AI

tool that would help shore up this

component of

of XAI,"

they get their calls returned right now

because the way to think of it is if

you're looking for a house in San

Francisco and it costs $2 million,

and you're with and it it's a lot of

money and you're worth $3 million,

it's worth you you really think about

it. If overnight you were $30 million,

you're like, "Honey, buy it."

>> Right. Exactly.

>> So, everything in the world

looks cheap to them right now.

>> Right. It does.

>> Because almost anything is technically

accretive and adds to earnings because

nothing out there is trading at 120

times revenues.

>> Yeah, like I could get Perplexity. They

could get a bunch of stuff.

>> Perplexity, I Yeah, that'd be an

interesting one.

>> Yeah, cuz they

will paper over their problems with

Grok, which are rather significant,

which

>> Regulators Regulators won't get it

through, but if they could, they should

buy it. They could acquire Mistral. I

mean,

>> Oh, yeah, that's a good idea.

>> Yeah,

that

That would not get past regulators, but

what could they not buy right now? I

mean, there's rocket sign Does Does

Rocket Lab or whatever the [ __ ] that

company is Does that have any technology

they could use? They are looking at

everything right now.

>> Yeah, they've got to. Yeah, there's some

really interesting stuff. The thing is,

he doesn't want to create sort of like a

basket of nothing fits. It's got to be

strategic, like in terms of what Like so

Cursor gets some enterprise business, it

gets them, you know, highly talented

people, it gets them a product people

like that are people are using. You

know, that's what they got to look at.

They can't just buy anything, um because

I think it

His big mistake with Grok was that he

like overstuffed it with geniuses, and

then it was sort of like a hot mess,

essentially. Um and this is more his

way, the way he bought Tesla from the

the creators, you know, of it. He didn't

make Tesla. He bought it from their

inventors, and he does that with a lot

of stuff, and I think that's what he

does best. He's a little Henry Ford-like

in a lot of ways, if you think about it,

versus an Edison, right? Everyone looks

at him like as if he's he's an inventor,

but he's not. He's a

He's a

He's a collector, right? A really good

collector of stuff.

>> been an acquirer, typically, though.

He tries to go vertical.

>> He does, but he buys things that are He

sees things that are promising and buys

them. He doesn't found them in a lot of

ways, you know? So, I think this is more

his Cursor I thought, "Okay,

maybe he's laid off the ketamine or

something cuz that's a good idea,

right?" That kind of thing.

And it's not it's it's just the right

thing. It's sort of like if you put them

in charge of their AI, the way he put

Gwynne Shotwell in charge of SpaceX, you

really could do well. And he keeps he

just wanders Someone described He comes

in, he kicks some cans, and he leaves.

And that's what they prefer,

essentially.

And so I think that's probably good to

put it in the hands of better people

than him at this particular thing.

And that's a smart move. It is. You're

right, he could buy anything.

>> The bankers taking

Anthropic and OpenAI out are looking at

SpaceX and thinking, "Okay,

that manufactured scarcity thing was

really smart. How do we do it?" I bet

they're actually reducing the size of

their offerings

cuz they go this this a ton of people

rushing through a small door

>> Wow.

>> of of smaller float and increasing

demand. Wow, did that work out well for

those guys.

>> And then those lockups come out right

when they were going to go public. The

SpaceX lockups come out in the fall in

September, I think, a lot of them. It

goes to I don't know what

set six 40% something. There's a big

There's a big float.

>> sorts of things. If it trades above a

certain amount for a certain number of

days,

there's soft lockups if you're on if you

bought the stock

>> come in the fall, and which is right

when these people are going to go

public, right? Presumably. Which it

means a possible decline. Like that's

the thing. That's when you would see the

decline.

>> Yeah, but there's there's got to be

everyone has just thrown their numbers

in the trash bin and said, "I would love

to be Anthropic going public to say,

'Oh my gosh, if you like this company at

120 times revenues, we're growing We're

not growing 24% a year, we're growing

400% a year, and you can buy us for the

low low price of 40 times revenues.'"

>> Right. You're absolutely

>> love to be an IR

for

Anthropic. The weird thing I've I've

been I talked to a lot of

companies about their AI efforts. What's

going to be weird for OpenAI

is what you're seeing a lot of in

corporations right now

is they are

they're blaming the model. A lot of

corporations right now are swapping out

uh ChatGPT and OpenAI for Anthropic and

quite frankly some of it is not OpenAI's

fault.

What it is is all these companies who

are not seeing the return that it was

initially promised.

>> it on the initial promise.

>> are blaming the model.

>> Yeah, they're blaming the initial

>> out OpenAI for the hotter brand right

now which is Anthropic. So it's going to

be very interesting to see

>> that got leaked of OpenAI. Whoa, whoa,

they lose money. Wow.

>> Yeah, they're burning a they're burning

a lot of capital. It's going to be very

very interesting to compare

um OpenAI and Anthropic's revenues. Now,

OpenAI's to be fair OpenAI's losses were

somewhat exaggerated by the conversion

from nonprofit to for-profit and

compensation costs.

>> Good for you to say that.

>> But once somebody smart like Bill Cohan

actually looks into it and goes apples

to apples

what'll be most interesting is to see

how much momentum Anthropic has gained

and how much momentum OpenAI has lost.

>> Yeah. Yeah.

>> because that kind of sets the tone for

everything. But I'll tell you their

valuations went up

their first day

valuations are up 40 or 50% because of

SpaceX. And even smaller guys, there's

this really cool company out of Italy

called Bending Spoons.

It's a private equity company that's

about to come public

and they did a roll-up of like Vimeo and

>> Oh.

>> AOL and um

>> Like Bending Spoons like that Harry

person.

>> Basically they found a bunch of orphans,

WeTransfer, Evernote, Eventbrite,

Meetup.

All these all these kind of companies

that that were sort of left for dead or

>> for yeah.

>> And they've they'd streamlined the back

end, which is what private equity does,

and they're taking them public. I love

this company. I think it's a really

smart idea.

>> Oh my god, I have to look at that.

>> They probably got them at really good

prices. And and these are companies who

needed scale.

>> like how they cleaned up Yahoo, right?

>> Exactly. And but every every banker and

every company going public right now,

because of SpaceX,

I mean, there's an argument that they

get hurt cuz there's not enough capital

out there, but I'd go the other way. I

would say, "Everything looks cheap now

in the context of SpaceX."

>> I think Bill is right the retail

investors will be left holding the bag

when when it comes to pass that, you

know, a few earnings in.

Um all right, let's go on a quick break.

When we come back, we'll talk about

Snap's new smart glasses. It's a treat

for Scott, I know.

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>> Scott, we're back and there's a new

wearable that I know you'll be rushing

out to buy. Uh Snap just announced its

augmented reality smart glasses called

Specs.

Uh Evan Spiegel called it a way to bring

computing into the world and make it

more human, though the style-wise Wired

notes the glasses are chunky. I would

think that's that's a perfect word,

actually. And at a price point of 2,195,

they're well above the cost of most meta

Ray-Bans, which were a couple hundred um

and then though it's still about a

thousand cheaper than Apple's Vision

Pro, which people think they're going to

get rid of and replace with their glass

version that'll compete with the

Ray-Bans. Investors don't seem to be

impressed. Snap shares fell nearly 10%

on Tuesday after the glasses were

unveiled. I mean, I I like I very much

like Evan Spiegel, but that was bad him

putting them on. I can't say anything

else. It just He's a handsome man and it

immediately rendered him unhandsome and

they looked kind of ridiculous and

pretending otherwise um seems silly. It

They're And by the way, Meta's version

of these glasses which have more utility

and they have to be this big and chunky.

Um uh the Ray-Bans don't almost have no

utility. There's just a few things, but

the ones that have more utility with

like mapping and

uh all kinds of things like as if you're

you have a a cell phone in your hand or

very heavy no matter how you slice it.

So, your thoughts on the chunky glasses?

>> I've never This is the first time in my

life I've ever seen an image of Evan

Spiegel and thought, "I'm cooler than

Evan Spiegel." $2,200 for 4 hours of

battery life, bulky frames,

from a company that has never turned a

profit. Let's go. I mean, it is a

terrible thing to say. I've never been a

fan of Snap. I've always thought it was

subscale. I think Evan is an innovator.

I'm glad he's a billionaire.

He seems like a lovely guy. He is a

lovely guy. I met him. Lovely guy. Uh

this is the beginning of the end of Snap

as an independent company. This thing is

dead on arrival. It makes the mixed

mixed reality headset from Tim Cook look

like a viable product. This is

uh I mean, I don't know if you've heard,

I'm not a big fan of these wearables and

headsets.

>> what Apple comes in with the a lighter

version. I am looking forward to it.

They're very chunky. Have you tried

these on? I have. I've tried the specs

and

>> Uh no, I'm not I'm not part of the in

crowd, the cool crowd. Yeah,

this is where it's all headed. It's all

headed to AirPods with AI and cameras

>> built into them.

>> Yeah. And maybe there'll be some cool

little things sunglasses, but here's the

problem.

Snap doesn't have the capital because

because what Meta can do is Meta can

burn $60 million

on

on a failed product and it's like a

speed bump.

Uh this product is overpriced,

under-engineered

because Snap at whatever it is, 6 or 8

billion market cap, doesn't have the

capital to compete in the hardware

space.

>> And you can't make those smaller. I

mean, from what I understand, they got a

lot packed in there, you know, even even

the Ray-Bans are a little heavy that I

don't wear them cuz I find them like

they're heavier than my glasses. And so,

and they have limited features, like

limited limited features. And so, it's

like take a picture, record something.

I think one of the things, you know,

recognition is important. I think, you

know, like if you were blind or other

things, like who is that? Very helpful.

That kind of stuff with limited features

is great. But if you want anything

really substantive, like and I actually,

when you put them on and look through

them, it's cool cuz the room becomes

like I saw one thing with these specs,

this was many years ago actually.

Um, they brought it to my house and I

tried them on and they were so heavy,

they were ridiculous. But when you look

through them, there was the planets in

front of you and you could walk through

the planets and it was beautiful. Like I

have to say,

that was cool and I was like, how can we

get to this

kind of thing? So, I I for the first

time I understood the planets. I know it

sounds dumb because they were swirling

around me.

And I was like, how do you create this

in a way that is light? And I don't

think you can. I think it you kind of

have to have some sort of holographic

room or something that you live in or

your room has cameras.

Um, but this idea that you can have it

all from the glasses means you have to

wear these chunky glasses. And

but when you're in it, it is quite

lovely. It's just the the I don't know

how they're going to make these light

and easy to wear, you know. They're

they're in the movies, they're always in

Iron Man always has a pair that looks

pretty cool. But

>> There's military applications, there's

commercial applications, but from a

consumer standpoint, these glasses and

these three It's always been like It's

always been like going to the

planetarium at Griffith Park, which I

used to do with my college buddies. We'd

get ridiculously [ __ ] high, go to the

planetarium, I think this is amazing. We

got to do this again in another 24

months.

>> Yeah.

>> I mean this

>> That's [laughter] a really good

>> It's just not

>> Yeah. Yeah, you're

>> The commercial application is the most

ubiquitous screen in the phone, I mean

in the world, your iPhone that you can

hold up to something and use AR not VR.

And then where the only wearable in my

opinion that's going to going to really

take off is the one that's already taken

off and that is AirPods.

And the note I mean keep in mind specs

Snap launched specs and they are an

innovator

in 2016 for 130 bucks and nobody bought

them. So

naturally the solution was to make them

15 times more expensive and way uglier.

>> Yeah, they sort of look like the

Ray-Bans. I'll tell you that. They

definitely do.

>> This is dead on arrival. This is dead on

arrival.

This is dead on arrival. Snap is an

innovative subscale company that should

be searching for an acquirer right now.

>> Yeah, who would buy them?

>> I don't know. I don't I don't know if

I don't know if Meta is allowed to. I

don't I don't know. It's probably

>> Yeah, since he's the chief product

officer at Meta for so many years.

>> even despite the fact the stock is now

90% or whatever it is in the last 5

years, it's still not $6 million is not

chump change.

>> Yeah, remember he was offered a ton of

money to be bought by Zuckerberg. I

think it was in the million It was in

this area. Yeah.

>> Well, that's interesting. He I think he

was offered 3 billion and now it's worth

6 or 8. But if it had been 3 billion in

Facebook stock, that would be worth 30

or 50 billion now.

>> Yeah. Now I know. Anyway, uh good try

Evan, but really you don't look good in

those glasses. I'm sorry. You don't I

like you, but we have to tell the truth.

All right, Scott, one more quick break.

We'll be back for predictions.

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Okay, Scott, let's hear your prediction.

Um I have to say, can I make one quick

prediction? I was really struck by how

and I was just on The View and I like

those ladies at The View, but I thought

they did a fantastic job with that

interview with um

um

>> Vice President Vance

>> JD Vance. I thought they did a great

job. And I have to say I cuz I'll be

thinking like someone was like TV's

over. I'm like is all TV over or could

you innovate TV? And when you see things

like that, you're like they created a

viral moment that was also substantive.

There are ways to innovate in the

broadcast space. I think

not secular cuz secularly it's going

down, but when I saw that I'm like there

would be a way to do this that was like

they did a great they showed you could

make products that are really people

like and I think it was viewed by a lot

of people. It did like a huge

social thing and I was just like good

like what would you do to innovate

television was really it made me start

thinking and I have to say I pay

compliments to them because that's not

where you expect I think the best

interview of him was done. I have to say

of all all of them and I thought they

asked exactly the right questions. They

had the amount of fairness and um

fairness and quality and also had a lot

of good side eyes. Sunny Hostin and and

Anna had the best side eyes, but it was

it was well done. I have to say.

So I predict more of that.

>> Yeah, I agree with you though. I I I

thought they they did as good a job as

they were very respectful. They were

pushed back when it was appropriate. I

thought he did I thought he did the best

he could with a the hand he's been built

or dealt I should say. I don't you know,

he was

you know, kudos to him. He wants to be

president. Kudos to him. You got to go

into the lion's den, right?

>> He did.

>> And I thought he was I actually think in

a weird way I thought it was a win for

both of them. I thought he came off as

>> It was It was well done.

>> more human.

>> Yeah, I thought it was well done. Here's

the problem. He's what they should The

only question they didn't ask him is the

one they asked Kamala. How are you What

would you separate yourself from?

>> Uh that's a great question. What would

you do differently?

>> What would you do differently?

>> I would ask the I would ask exactly the

same.

>> That's exactly right.

>> That's that would have killed him. It

could cuz he'd have to have the same

answer Kamala did, which is not a thing.

I can't think of a thing. He can't He

couldn't say anything is the thing. So,

that would have been the killer

question.

Sadly, I was not there.

Anyway.

>> There you go.

Uh, he wouldn't [snorts] have come on if

you were there, I don't think. Um,

anyways, uh, okay, so my my prediction

is I've sort of already made it, but an

activist is going to show up and force

Evan either to sell or spin the specs

division.

They've spent 3 and 1/2 billion

over the past decade on their fever

dreams of a wearable with no real

return.

And they spend about a third of their

adjusted EBITDA on specs per year.

And and better capitalized competitors,

including Apple and Meta, are struggling

to make this product category work.

And if they spun or shut down their

specs division, it's actually It's not a

great business, but it's a good

business, and that is

Snap, for all of its issues and being

subscale, is only one of four scaled

social networks. It has a billion

monthly active users and nearly a half a

billion daily active users, said my

children.

>> Yeah. Uh, mine mine, too. My kids My

son's using

>> still like it. Snap has over 6 billion

in revenue. It's still growing 10% a

year.

And it has a billion in subscription

revenue growing 60% a year.

If Snap

if Snap were able to achieve

Reddit's forward revenue multiples, it

would be worth 3 and 1/2

X what it is today. So, anyways, I think

there's an activist play around saying

to Evan,

"You have got to stop with the spec [ __ ]

and either spin that into a separate

company for other dumb people to

finance,

but the core business is a good

business, and you saddled it with a

shitty business, and you don't have the

capital to do that, unlike these other

companies that can go play in traffic.

You can't You have to be more

disciplined in this, Evan.

And the person or the entity that's

going to impose that discipline will be

an activist that comes in and buys 5 to

10% of the company and says, "Shut this

down or spin it." I think you're going

to see that in the next 12 months.

>> You know, I always go to the I always go

to the same people, but there's

activists everywhere now.

>> Yeah, yeah, you're right. That's right.

>> You're about to see, quite frankly,

you're about to see 20 new hedge funds

from former SpaceX and Anthropic

and OpenAI employees. Do you You know, I

was say I was I had dinner with a group

of friends last night.

My friends Fernando and Tony

and Stephen last night at uh

Roofgarden's. Beautiful night here.

Beautiful night. And then we watched

Team England. Oh my god. [clears throat]

>> Was that fun? Was that in New York or

>> 4-2. It was in London.

>> London, okay.

>> Um we were saying, and granted these are

Do you realize

how expensive

like Europe is going to be this summer

with all these newly minted douchebags

headed to Europe this summer?

>> Mhm.

>> Like can you

I mean, I can't wait to see I I'll just

hear about it, what a table in Ibiza

costs.

>> Ibiza?

>> For a big event, when you have a bunch

of 34-year-old, and let's be honest,

they're almost all dudes. When you have

a bunch of 34-year-old dudes who woke up

and are like are worth 11 million, the

first thing they're going to do

[laughter]

is head to Saint-Tropez this summer.

>> Saint-Tropez?

>> And I I said I said

>> Saint-cinq Is it Saint-cinq?

>> Saint-cinq.

>> Saint-cinq.

>> 55, yeah. I mean, do you realize how

expensive

>> Where a radish costs $50.

>> we talk about San Francisco real estate,

just wait till you see what the price of

a bottle of bottle service is.

>> Yeah.

>> Uh you know,

>> Well, that's why you're paying when

we're there next week, Scott. That's why

you're

>> Baby, I always pay for you. I always pay

for the women.

>> I know you do.

>> I think all men should always pay for

the women. I'm highly sexist that way.

>> I really don't like when things cost

ridiculous amounts of money. Makes me

uncomfortable.

>> Unless it's at the Hotel du Cap with the

dog.

>> I have children. it.

Let me try to stop that.

>> Another bottle of rosé for my friend who

doesn't drink.

>> the children. And he's like, wait a

minute, maybe

>> No, you're not invited. I forgot about

that.

>> exactly. That's what I thought.

>> Yeah, I forgot about that. Your kids are

less awful than most kids.

>> are less Your kids are less awful than

most kids.

>> My kids are They're great.

>> I do think Wait, I just got to reveal

that one moment though. I'm at the Hotel

du Cap pool with you,

Amanda and your two kids,

and I'm going down to the pool with

Amanda and the kids and I'm like, "You

want to come down with us?" And you're

like, "No, and please just keep them

down there as long as possible."

>> [laughter]

>> And you literally just splayed on a

chair.

>> I did. I needed to sleep.

>> to me, you gave me kind of that

dad-to-dad look. You go,

"Do me a favor. Keep them down there as

long as possible.

Keep Amanda and the kids down there as

long as possible."

>> like to swim. I don't like to swim. I'm

like a cat. I don't like to swim. So,

there you have it. So, anyway, do you

have your um your whatever your

your What is it? Zodiac?

>> Oh, I hired the same guy. He somehow

manages to to navigate that thing with a

lit cigarette at all times. [laughter]

>> I love you in the Zodiac.

>> I pam

I pam I think I I think I pam like eight

years a day and he just circles the

hotel and waits till I'm ready to go

somewhere and zooms me there. He's

[ __ ] James Bond.

>> Take No, take Salt. My son is already a

a 34-year-old hedge fund zillionaire. He

just acts That's how he goes through

life.

>> He's ordering bottle service?

>> Anyway, I'm very excited. By the way,

we're We'll be in France and we'll be

doing uh a live pivot, which we're we're

very excited about um and hanging out on

the Croisette.

>> a live pivot?

>> We are doing a live

>> not know that.

>> Yes, we

>> All right.

>> What do you mean you did not know that?

>> I did not know that.

>> What?

>> I thought I had the week off.

>> Recorded live. We're going to record it

live, and not broadcast live, but we are

going to be together. Oh my god.

>> Nice. Where are we recording from?

>> up where MJ tells you.

>> We want to hear from you. Send us your

questions about business, tech, or

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call 855-51-pivot.

Elsewhere in the Car and Scott universe

this week on Prof G conversations, Scott

spoke with the legend Heather Cox

Richardson about the future of American

democracy, the state of both political

parties, and what history suggests comes

next. Scott, you did a great job. I have

to tell you.

>> Thanks.

>> Let's listen to a clip.

>> It does raise a larger question I think

about where the United States is in this

moment. And that is

obviously this is hitting consumers

incredibly hard. They were already

hurting from the tariffs. Now they're

going to be hurting even more from the

rising cost of diesel and the cost of

what that's going to do to food and

gasoline and so on.

But to what degree is the

uh corruption and the incompetence and

the self-dealing

among Trump and his inner circle

affecting the way that

ordinary Americans who are not paying a

lot of attention to that because they're

working three jobs to put food on the

table. You know, to what degree do those

things speak to each other?

>> That is a very good point. I do think

the algae the algae. I think it's a

unites us all. Anyway, that's the show.

Thanks for listening to Pivot. We'll be

back next week and congratulations to

New York Knicks, especially the Brunson

family. He There were some pictures of

him with his daughter.

>> Lovely.

>> What they all really exhibit masculinity

and and community in a way that is

wonderful. So congratulations. I hope

everyone's having a good time right now

at the ticker tape parade. And we'll

we'll be next week in France, Scott and

I.

>> That's right.

>> We'll we'll I hope you'll enjoy our

shows from there.