Does it have any impact upon you,

these reasonably intelligent group of people actually think that what you

inflicted upon the country has damaged the country.

What I think is that the British people voted for it.

Yes, they voted for it based upon ...

And we should respect to democratic result, which you have never wanted to do.

It was a day that changed Britain and Europe.

And 10 years on Alastair Campbell and Jacob Rees-Mogg go head to head

on Brexit. Do you think that Brexit has led us to the much more multi-party

politics that we are in now?

One of the reasons for Brexit is that people felt whoever they voted for,

nothing changed. Very little has changed in the 10 years since,

and now they're looking at other parties.

A lot of people who voted for Brexit are disappointed that hasn't delivered a

better life for them.

From Bloomberg Weekend. This is The Mishal Husain Show.

Now,

hopefully you all know by now that this show is a place where we try to make

sense of the world with one essential conversation every week.

That is the case with episodes every Friday,

except when there's more to say.

That's how it is this week because it is exactly 10 years

since voters in the UK faced a big choice,

having their say on membership of the European Union.

2016, 48% of people voted to remain in the EU,

52% voted to leave,

the moment when the Brexit process began.

Even though episodes here are usually one-to-one,

this one is a debate because we wanted to bring together two of the most

high profile campaigners for and against Brexit.

Two people who still feel strongly about it 10 years on it's Jacob Rees-Mogg

and Alastair Campbell, and we brought them together on a stage,

in London, in front of an audience of Bloomberg subscribers.

So let's get to it. Here's what happened when they both joined me on stage.

I think I can definitely say that these two do not love each other.

They do love politics and debate and they are with us to Mark 10 years

since the vote to leave the EU.

So please welcome Alastair Campbell and Jacob Rees-Mogg.

Welcome. Now, some of you will remember that it was at Bloomberg,

not in this building,

in our old headquarters where David Cameron made the fateful pledge that he was

in favor of having an in-out referendum on

the EU. 10 years ago, Jacob Rees-Mogg, you were a Conservative MP.

You campaigned to leave the EU. Alastair Campbell,

you were very much on the other side in 2016,

but people knew you already from your work with Tony Blair in Downing Street.

In the time we have,

I want to look back at the economic impact and the political impact of Brexit

in the last 10 years and also your views on the future and

what could or should be the future of the UK's relationship with the EU.

So first of all, as the results came in, in June 2016,

what did you not appreciate that we now know, Jacob?

Well,

the one thing I didn't appreciate was that the 'remain' side who'd been quite

passive in the referendum campaign,

would start campaigning much harder after the result than they had done before.

Very fair point.

Whereas my side thought we'd won and stopped and that was a mistake by our side

and fascinating by the other side and that's had very important consequences

because since then you've had much more from people who think it was a mistake.

I think the reason they started campaigning after the result was they never

thought they would lose and they thought it was just a few eccentrics like me

who were in favor of it. And that nobody would in fact vote for it.

I thought at the time we would win because the more I got away from central

London,

the clearer it became that there was a very large base of support for Brexit.

So that was the one big thing that I have noticed is the difference in

campaigning since the result.

Alastair?

Well, when you were asking the question,

the thing that popped into my head was I was in ITV studio.

Tom Bradby was sitting there talking about this,

that and the other and at the very moment when it came up that it is now

impossible for 'remain' to win,

I saw David Davis and Liam Fox look at each

other with absolute panic in their eyes.

The thing that really surprised me was that, and Jacob is right by the way,

the remain campaign was terrible. I actually,

I regret now I didn't get that involved in the Remain campaign because Cameron

and Osborne kept telling us it's all fine, we're all going to ...

it is all fine, don't worry about it.

I got involved subsequently and I was one of the few who admitted that the

People's Vote campaign to my mind was probably the only vehicle we had left

possibly to stop what I thought was a terrible act of self-harm.

So I was open about that,

but I think what genuinely surprised me was there was just no plan.

There was no plan at all. The lies had been told,

the myths had been sold and we had to pick up the pieces.

I do think Alastair Campbell of all people has to be careful about talking about

lies, considering his reputation.

Why? What's the reputation?

What's your reputation? Oh,

a High Court judge in 1996 saying you are an unreliable witness.

That's quite a good part of your reputation, isn't it?

Well Jacob, do you mind mind if we stick to Brexit?

I think there's quite enough to get into on the Brexit side.

But Alastair brought up this question of lies.

You did lie.

No we didn't.

You did. You lied. You drove a red bus packed full of lies.

If we're talking about lies,

Alastair needs to look at his own record because he has done more to damage

trust in British politics than anybody else.

And Peter Oborne has written a book about, which if we wanted to,

we could go through.

We are getting all the old songs here.

This is really important.

I would rather that given that I've set the parameters on that we're going to

talk about economic impact, political impact.

Do you mind if we turn to economic impact.

As long as Alastair stops saying we lied and then I won't talk about his lies.

Could we rest that point Alastair?

I think it would be better to talk about economic impact.

We can spend a whole debate on Alastair's lies when he was in Downing Street.

Let's not. Can I tell you what Bloomberg Economics' analysis, just released,

has been about the economic impact of the last 10 years, because this has just,

they've crunched the numbers as you'd expect and in terms of the economic

impact, this has been their finding,

that Brexit may have already cost the UK economy between 2% and 4%

of GDP.

A very conservative estimate.

But the central estimate is 2.5% of GDP lost over the long run,

which is equivalent to about 30 billion pounds a year in foregone annual tax

revenue. How do you feel about that Jacob?

Well, the figures don't actually stack up.

So if we look at the Bloomberg figures.

They lie as well do they?

Which is ... No, they're different ways of interpreting figures.

So when you look at how the UK economy has done,

actually we've outperformed Germany,

we've performed broadly in line with France.

Why if we'd remained in the EU would we have performed as the outliers did?

Let me put it in broader terms,

do you accept that there has been any economic hit at all in the last 10 years

compared to where the UK would've been had it remained in the EU?

I think using our economic freedoms has actually helped us.

And you look at our trade ...

Is that a yes or a no?

Well, it's a complete answer if you give me a minute. If you look at our trade,

our invisible trade,

our services trade has been roaring ahead and I think that's been partly

possible.

You've seen our trade with India increase very rapidly in invisibles because

we're outside the European Union, we're no longer confined by its rules.

So has there been an overall ...

I think it's been beneficial.

Okay. That's a very rare view that you think overall there's been a net economic

positive.

Yes.

Okay, Alastair?

Because we got the vaccine early, so we opened up.

That's a different point.

No, it's not.

I'm talking in terms of GDP.

The early vaccine meant our economy opened up earlier than otherwise would have

done.

You people, Jacob says he doesn't want to leave.

I'm not going to leave this lying thing because it is part of ...

Alright, well let's go back to lying thing. I've got some papers on this.

I'm sure you have.

A nice record of lying to select commitees of the House of Commons.

I've heard them all.

Of sexing up and document you may remember.

Can I just finish the point.

Well, you want to talk about lies?

No, I want to back explain to this public. You have got a list there ...

You can't point out a single lie to me.

I can point out a whole history of lying to you.

This is what they do.

They do not want to talk about the substance because they're so deluded in still

thinking Brexit has been anything other ...

I'm more than happy to talk about this substance.

You have made every single person in this room poorer.

Well that's just not true.

It is true. You've made every single person in this country poorer.

Simply, we opened the economy earlier because we had the vaccine first.

By the lies that you told just and you will never accept it.

You're the one who destroyed trust in the British government by the lies you

told over Iraq.

Jacob,

let me ask Alastair Campbell the same question that I put to you about the

economic impact of the last 10 years.

I'll give you a few more facts than he gave you.

Well,

would you accept that the economic impact has not been as bad as you thought?

Given that today the UK is still under OECD projections

projected to be the third fastest growing economy in the G7.

I think that the economic consequences of Brexit have been catastrophic.

I think that you've given a conservative end.

If you take some of the other assessments,

we are up to 8% between 6% and 8% hit on the economy.

We now have small firms that write to me all the time

who have literally given up trying to trade with the European Union because of

the red tape that these liars said they would cut by leaving Brussels,

that they've now given up trading with business.

Productivity is lower than it would be.

Our GDP is lower than it would be and what's more, we could double,

we've got a security crisis at the moment. If we,

to my argument had not left the European Union,

we could currently double defence spending and increase the National Health

Service by 50% without touching any taxes.

If everything that you are saying is true,

then why are we projected to be the third fastest growing economy in the G7 this

year?

I've never been one of those anti-Brexit people who thinks that the European

Union is some kind of panacea or some sort of ... Europe is not in a good place.

Europe's competitiveness is too low.

But we in wrenching ourselves out of the biggest market in the world,

we have done fundamental damage to every single person and business in this

country.

Okay, first of all, these figures are just wrong.

The 8% is a joke figure and assumes that we would've grown as the United States

has grown, the United States has grown faster because it's got cheap energy.

We have grown faster than Germany.

What part of being in the EU would've allowed us to grow even faster than

we have when its anchor economy has been failing?

The productivity question, lemme just finish the point.

The productivity question is mainly a question in the public sector,

whereas the private sector,

productivity has been marginally increasing and the public sector doesn't export

to the European Union.

I'm relying on the analysis done by the government,

by this government and the last government that has been tracked that we have

taken a substantial hit to our economy.

Okay, and I'm going to refer everyone here to the Bloomberg Economics' analysis,

which has a wide range and where everyone can see the basis of the figures that

I'm using.

Well, I think Alastair should just explain how the OBR came to its 4% figure.

I'm not talking about the OBR.

Well that's the key figure. The OBR's 4% figure.

No, it's not.

That was a forecast.

You've got your notes. I've got my notes okay.

That was a forecast by the OBR.

It's the National Bureau of Economic Research. It based on ...

The 8% figure depends on Ireland.

I'm going to ask both. The Irish economy has just fallen by 12%

because of tariffs on pharmaceuticals. I'm going to ask you both to park this

topic for a moment because we can both see that you're never going to agree on a

common set of numbers and you are entitled to not agree on a common set of

numbers. Let's turn to the political impact of the last 10 years.

It's been a total triumph.

Do you ...

Hasn't it? Absolute triumph.

We're more respected in the world. We've got a great special relationship.

Both of you, you've spent your lives working for the two parties,

which have dominated our politics for the last century.

Do you accept that both of their political fortunes have suffered because of

Brexit? Alastair, do you accept that for Labour?

Yes. And I'll tell you why.

Because they haven't fought hard enough to make sure that the public fully

understands the calamity that was inflicted upon us by these people.

And they've tried to accept.

One of I think Keir Starmer's mistakes was this idea that we're going to make

Brexit work. You can change things at the margins.

And they've tried very hard to do that with some of the veterinary agreements,

with Erasmus and so forth.

But they don't want to address the fundamental question.

And am I allowed to ask the audience a question? For a show of hands?

I'd like to know because you can read polls, you can read all the stats.

Can I just ask the people in this room, who thinks, I'll be very, very neutral,

success or failure for the United Kingdom.

Who thinks Brexit has been a success for the United Kingdom?

Who thinks it's been a failure? You get that Jacob.

You can live in your dream world. You get that everywhere in the country.

Everywhere.

If I'd been here in the year of the referendum and we'd said who wants to leave

and who wants to stay, we'd have had exactly the same.

No, you would ... not at all.

I found that every yard I went from the center of the City of London,

you've got more supporters for Brexit. If we went to Lincolnshire,

if we went to Cornwall,

and I really did find this during the debates because I went anywhere that

invited me to speak and the closer you were to the center of the city,

the heart of the city, the more anti-Brexit it was.

So that doesn't surprise me at all that you get that poll here.

Does it have any impact upon you,

that these reasonably intelligent group of people actually think that what you

inflicted upon the country has damaged the country.

What I think is that the British people voted for it.

Yes, they voted for it based upon ...

And we should respect a democratic result which you have never wanted to do.

On this note actually, I'm going to bring in some polling by Ipsos.

We're going to talk in detail about the future a bit later,

but as a sense of where polling stands right now,

over half of British adults would vote to rejoin the EU if a new referendum was

held.

Although that 52% Alastair is probably not as large a

majority as you would hope for if things have been such a disaster in the last

10 years.

I think an awful lot of people just do not want to revisit the debate.

I do want to revisit the debate and I think it's a debate that has to be had,

but I meet lots of people who completely buy my analysis of what's

happened but actually just do not want to revisit the debate.

And I'm afraid that's where I think the government's got itself into as well.

But that's not the question in that, is it? It's like if a vote was held,

52% would apply to join,

would like to see the UK apply to join, rejoin the European Union?

Yeah, but I mean 52%, 33%,

if you're looking at that as an electoral thing, you'd call that a landslide.

But look, I don't think until there is a debate, nobody here,

nobody in this room thinks that we are going to have a referendum in the near

future. I would like there to be one.

I don't actually think we're going to have one for some time. And two reasons.

One is I don't think the political debate wants it here. But secondly,

while we've got the prospect of people like Jacob getting into bed with people

like Nigel Farage and Nigel Farage possibly becoming the government,

the European Union is not going to think about having his back because this

debate,

this is the triumph that Jacob can take some comfort in given his views of the

world that until the country is settled in the view that we should

be in the European Union, the European Union is not going to have us back.

Okay, before you answer that Jacob,

I want to take you back and put the same question to you that Alastair answered

a moment ago about Labour. So

the impact on your party,

which fractured to some extent over Brexit and has been in power

repeatedly since then.

It's been very divisive for the Conservative Party since the early 1990s that

there's been a pro-European,

anti-European wing and that has made room for Reform to grow out of

the Conservative Party and led to a lot of divisions in the last government.

Or you could say your party failed to actually handle Brexit properly.

Alastair made the point that there was no plan for leaving.

That was a deliberate policy decision of David Cameron.

And it seems to me it was a deeply irresponsible one.

That if you give the country a referendum and you are the prime minister,

you ought to think that you could lose.

Did you have a plan as someone who was arguing for 'leave.'.

I knew what I wanted to do, but I wasn't in government. I was a back bench MP.

And that was the difficulty.

That's the difficulty with referendums is that you don't have the party that

wins the referendum then implementing the policy.

You have the party that is government,

in government doing it who may disagree with the referendum.

And that was the position we got into.

David Cameron going and Theresa May who was a remainer taking over. And so yes,

there were lots of ideas of what we should do when leaving,

but we weren't the government of the day. We were just arguing for those points.

But that gave them an extraordinary advantage.

That 'leave' could mean whatever any of the leavers said that it meant.

And that's why there was such a catalogue of lies because Johnson said one

thing, Farage said another one. Michael Gove said another one.

The lying expert is back.

I mean listening to him on lies is like listening to King Herod on childcare.

Well, I mean I think you should get back, get into the modern world, Jacob.

I know it's difficult for you, but I think that.

And it's not an anti-historical point. The list of,

your Peter Oborne list is so debunked and so discredited.

Have you sued him?

I can't be bothered. I've never sued anybody in my life.

So you haven haven't sued him?

Unlike the right I believe in free speech.

Okay.

Now if I can return ...

It's pretty well researched actually.

If I can return to help Mishal.

And footnoted.

Oh, he's got footnotes in the book. Marvellous.

Yes. Referring to things that you said that turned out not to be true.

I'll tell you something about the book that I would recommend.

You should get this for your book club because this is what Brexit is actually

about. Jacob, Jacob's dad,

William Rees-Mogg wrote a brilliant book in 1997.

Former editor of the Times newspaper.

Former editor of The Times called the Sovereign Individual.

It was a guide to the rich and powerful about how to become more rich and more

powerful.

And it was written as a note to investors and that is what you interviewed Elon

Musk. That is what a lot of this is about.

It is about the rich getting more rich, the powerful, getting more powerful.

And it's about people being conned by clever people like Jacob and clever people

like Nigel Farage into voting for something that is fundamentally damaged us.

I thought we weren't clever, the only ones who were clever,

are the ones who wanted to rejoin. My father,

believed that if everybody in the world got richer, the whole world got richer.

That free trade added to growth.

It's called trickle down out, I'm aware.

It is indeed and there's very strong evidence for that.

So I'm more than happy to defend my father.

Anyway, get his book in your book club.

But do you want me to come onto this chart? Because I think this is important.

You can say something about this chart. Yes.

It's very Yes Ministerish,

because it absolutely depends on the question you ask. So if you say this,

would you like to rejoin the EU? Yes. You get a majority.

Do you? Just from asking that question,

I mean there's 33% of people who said 'no', we'll stay out of the EU.

52% Say 'yes', because people always hanker for what they haven't got.

But if you ask,

would you like to join the Euro and would you like your contributions to go up

on the latest budget proposals coming from Brussels to £36

billion a year, the answer's very different. When you say to people,

do you want your trade rules made by a foreign country or international

organizations, the answers are different. So yes, this is a headline figure,

but it's not the full picture. And if we had a debate,

but I agree with Alastair, it's unlikely that we will have the new referendum.

I think this would all change during the course of the debate.

Part of me is very perplexed that people like you from the Conservative Party

who essentially the ethos is to conservative institutions to believe in

representative government rather than the will of the people in this kind of

format that you ever thought that a referendum was the right way

to make a big decision like this.

There's something almost revolutionary about it.

No there isn't.

Dicey sets out why he thinks the referendum should be the preferred way of

making constitutional change after the 1911 Parliament Act.

So you wouldn't object to another one then?

I think referendum is the right way to make serious constitutional changes

when you have a de facto unicameral system.

So how long does the mandate for the 2016 one last?

So it's a good question. It's the same as the Scottish referendum.

It's a generation, is what has been said about Scotland, as the last one was.

The last one was a decision for the best part of 50 years.

There's got to be a clear desire for it.

Now I think that desire will grow but at the same time, unless,

what I've realized since being half in half out of politics,

unless within the political parliamentary system itself there is real pressure

for something, it's less likely to happen.

And that's why I have been disappointed that Labour and the Lib Dems have

basically kind of given up.

They've given up almost in calling out the damage that's being done,

which is why his side are allowed to sort of parrot the nonsense that they do.

I disagree with the second half of that,

but I don't disagree with the first half.

I think there isn't an appetite to revisit this,

but I'm also not sure that EU will exist in 20 years time.

It's got major financial problems. It's trying to increase its budget,

it's got strains within it economically and it's got strains within it

culturally in relation to mass migration.

Would you accept this Alastair Campbell,

that the immigration was a big part of the debate in 2016 and since then you can

see that in so many other European countries. So,

I mean those tensions, they've been shown not to be unique.

They weren't whipped up.

They exist in other places because of the world that we're in.

But net migration trebled since the referendum. Trebled.

So where I accept ...

Under the Prime Minister that Jacob, you worked with.

Under Boris Johnson. So what I accept,

and this government actually has managed to get it down to a sort of more

acceptable level.

Over time that could become damaging to our economy as we get older and older

and older and we try to find the workers that we're going to need to look after

us and so forth. But I think that the, look,

this is why I say the rest of Europe is facing a lot of the same challenges.

Part of the problem with the Brexit debate has always been this sense of our

sort of great British exceptionalism.

Well we do these amazing big things like we're leaving the European Union,

you watch the French will follow and the Dutch will follow and the ...

none of them have followed.

Well, I don't think I ever said that.

Not sure that was a major part of our debate.

They have looked at us, including even the far-right, like Le Pen,

they have looked at the damage we've done to ourselves and said, no,

this is not the way to go. What I think is going to happen.

So I don't talk about rejoin,

I talk about join because I think Europe has to change as well.

Tony Blair,

your old boss says that is not really an argument we're having right now because

the UK wouldn't do it from a position of strength, enter a negotiation.

That's because we've given up so much of the advantage. We did have the rebate,

we weren't in Schengen, we weren't in the Euro. We've given up all that,

we've given away so much.

So I accepting that if we joined, we'd have to take all that.

I'm accepting that it would be a very, very difficult negotiation,

which you've made a lot harder because of what was lost then. Okay, so Schengen,

Euro and no rebate. I don't know,

because I think it's going to be a very different Europe.

No one's going to vote for that.

I want to see a Europe that has Ukraine in it.

I want to see Europe that even has Turkey in it,

because of their military strength,

which we're going to need particularly as the Americans seem to be deserting us

on that front. I want to see Norway.

Iceland's having a referendum coming up about whether to revisit.

I think we've got to think of Europe, not as,

and I would get rid of the whole power of the veto.

We've got to have a very different Europe. But I think that the only, in fact,

I made a note this morning because I've become a bit of a fan of the Pope since

he's encyclicall on AI. I still don't do God.

You'll all have that in common, then, Jacob being a Catholic.

I've read the Holy Father's encyclical on AI.

I think it's wonderful. It's wonderful. Did you agree with that?

It's very important.

I agreed with the bits about how mankind needs to keep control of AI.

Then you have to understand the human person is fundamental to any systems.

I hope you agreed as well with his fears about growing inequality.

But yesterday in the Spanish parliament, he said,

"I encourage you all to nurture the process of the European Union,

which is not merely a counterweight to other powers,

but a gift to humanity." Did you agree with that?

It's not an infallible statement. I don't have to agree with that.

Fine. Fine.

The Holy Father is only infallible when he speaks on a matter of faith and

morals ex cathedra, that was not faith or morals.

Okay. Fine.

And it was not ex cathedra.

And I could point to Pius IX saying that actually the European Union is the

apostate state and is eternally damned.

But that would be perhaps a little bit spicy.

Yes, it would. It would. Yeah. Anyway, my point ...

Hang on, I want, again on the politics.

Do you think that Brexit has led us to the much more multi-party politics that

we are in now? And Jacob, do you regret that your party,

not only regarded itself as the natural party of government,

but actually historically has more than often been that.

I think the parties managed to come too close together.

That you had David Cameron wanting to be the heir to Blair and people feeling

that it didn't matter how they voted.

So he wasn't a real conservative? Is that what you mean?

No, I'm not saying that.

I'm just saying he accepted a lot of the changes under Labour 97' to

2010.

Quite right.

And Labour had accepted a lot of the changes Margaret Thatcher made,

which I may think is quite right. So we have a degree of common ground.

But I think one of the reasons for Brexit is that people felt whoever they voted

for,

nothing changed and that therefore they needed to vote for fundamental change.

They found that very little has changed in the 10 years since,

we are still massively overregulated.

We still have too big a state and now looking at other parties.

I want to ask you one thing about regulation though. You were in the government,

Boris Johnson's government,

the moment that the UK actually left the EU at the end of 2020,

and at that moment,

all those EU regulations that you were so angry about for ages,

they were put into UK law.

That's right.

And I had a bill that I introduced to the House that would've got rid of some

...

You were part of the government that just like took them all.

We're going back to your Today program days.

Oow, take that Mishal.

I had a bill that I introduced to Parliament was going to get rid of 6,000 EU

regulations, and I'm sorry to say that, Rishi Sunak when he came in binned it,

which was a great mistake.

Okay, the future, we've touched on this a bit already.

Sorry, can I answer the question about the parties.

Yes, the parties. Okay.

I think this kind of atomization, I'm not sure it's directly related to Brexit,

but I think Brexit played a part in it because I actually think

a lot of people who voted for Brexit are disappointed that hasn't delivered a

better life for them.

Beyond the symbolism and the flags and the sort of fake debate about sovereignty

and so forth. So I think that what's happened is that they've done,

well, we did Labour, we did the Tories, and then we did this big thing.

And for millions and millions of people in this country,

their lives are still pretty crap. And so they're looking around.

And also I think that tribalism has broken down.

Now you can argue that's a good thing or a bad thing, but people just,

I think we now have a generation below my generation, in fact,

even below my kids' generation that is thinking I can shop

around just as they shop around on television,

just as they shop around for dates.

You can just shop around and they're thinking in politics, I'm going to go.

And so I think we've got, and the other thing that's happened,

it's very interesting to me,

Nigel Farage used to be a big fan of proportional representation.

Now in this atomized politics, he's working out, oh, I could get there with 25%,

28%.

Do you think, Jacob, that he could be the next prime minister? Nigel Farage?

It's not impossible on the polling that he's achieving. I mean,

I think John Curtice has said that that's not impossible, who I greatly respect.

Would you join him? Have you considered joining Reform?

I'm not going to join Reform,

but I hope that the Conservatives and Reform will work together.

As in a formal pact. Is that what you're hoping?

I'd like just to have a pre-election pact,

a coupon election and to work together. I think it could be very successful.

I think that Reform would bring something to the Conservative Party,

the charisma of Nigel Farage,

but that the Conservatives have depth and policymaking strength that Reform

lacks. And Reform remains, basically, a one man band.

And would you therefore be looking to him to do what?

To rip up the current and any agreements,

the current agreements with EU and start again?

Absolutely.

That's pretty much what he told me when he came on the podcast.

I completely agree with that, that I think that leave meant leave. We are out.

We should not be making new agreements.

The new Erasmus scheme is bonkersly expensive.

It's five times the price of the Turing scheme.

It's really crazy to waste money in that way,

when we're short of money for defence.

Alastair, the Bloomberg Economics,

when they model different scenarios for the future,

joining the single market for goods,

joining the Customs Union and having a series of Swiss style arrangements,

none of them deliver

a comparable boost to the economy compared to the assessment on how much has

been lost to GDP. When you look at Keir Starmer and his two likely challengers,

Wes Streeting and Andy Burnham, they've,

all these senior Labour figures who have got a slightly different position on

the EU. How much does that disappoint you?

They've got a slightly different position?

Slightly different position on how they feel about rejoining, when they rejoin,

whether they want to have the debate now or not.

We're in a very, very strange place, because of course,

Keir Starmer is the prime minister.

Wes Streeting is able to be much, much more open.

And I didn't realize that Wes wanted his sort of back in ASAP,

but he is obviously decided that's his position. It all disappoints me,

to be absolutely frank, because the thing that disappoints me most of all.

I genuinely worry if this Labour government is not a success.

I think our politics is going to a very dark place.

You mentioned Europe and one of the trends around Europe is that the populist,

radical right is kind of on the march. Now, Jacob may think that's a good thing.

I think it's a terribly dangerous thing.

I think that what we've seen just in the last few days and exacerbated,

sorry to mention your first interviewee again,

exacerbated by the influence that Elon Musk has on our social media landscape.

I think what we've seen in Belfast, in Southampton recently,

that is to me the politics of Reform and Restore.

And one of the problems we have in the way that we talk about,

and deal with these people. We treat them as kind of normal,

mainstream politicians. I don't believe that they are.

I think they're extremists. I think they're dangerous.

I think Brexit was a vehicle for them.

I don't agree with that.

I actually think we're very fortunate in this country that we don't have that

type of extremist that has been rising on the continent.

I think that Nigel Farage is within the normal bounds of British political life.

I think our politics is actually pretty stable. Our electoral system works,

our democracy works.

It changed government when it thought a government had failed.

That is a proper process.

And so I'm more confident about the stability of our political system.

Right. One last question to close.

It's 2036 and we are all gathered again to mark 20 years since

Brexit. What do you think the relationship with the EU will be then?

Jacob?

I think it will be a friendly third party relationship.

I think the EU will no longer be hankering for us to return if it still exists

and that we will be thriving outside the class,

the dead hand of EU regulation we will have made trade deals globally.

We've got the CPTPP, we've got so many opportunities globally,

so I'm very excited about it.

Alastair?

The trade deals that were promised, they were a big part of the lies.

No they're not. They're happening.

All of which we'd have to give up if we rejoined.

The relationship in 2036.

Well, the truth is, I don't know.

What do you hope for?

What I hope for is what I described earlier. Europe, where you ...

Having rejoined or some other kind of relationship?

Having joined a totally different organization in which is possible,

for example, to have different levels of membership,

in which is possible for the Western Balkans to be in on one basis,

for Ukraine to be in on the other,

for the Turks to be part very much of a defence alliance. But that's Europe,

part of European defence for the Norwegians ...

But no one in the commission is talking about this.

These are two very different visions.

Some of them are.

It's not happening. They refused to do it.

David Cameron couldn't get anything out of his renegotiation,

which he announced at Bloomberg.

I think Alastair is imagining a very different kind of EU.

She's asking in 20 years. You have to look ahead, Jacob. I told you earlier.

10 Years, 2036, not 2046.

20 Years from the act of folly.

So from the here and now, we're also looking into the future.

I'm going to take a deep breath and very thankfully leave the stage now and

thank you both very much indeed.

This is the only reason we're here.

It's available in all good book shops.

Alastair Campbell and Jacob Rees-Mogg, thank you.

Thank you.

And that is where we left it.

I really did need to breathe deeply after we left the stage,

but Jacob and Alastair were fine with each other afterwards and were busy taking

pictures for their socials before they left Bloomberg. Finally,

if you're new to the show and you liked what you saw here,

do search for more episodes,

because you'll find that we go in depth every single time.

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