Has Finance Killed Capitalism?
162 segments
Okay, here's a question for you. If for some reason all you wanted to do was increase a
billionaire like Elon Musk's net worth, what would be a better way to spend your hypothetical
money? Buying a $100,000 Cybert truck, or buying $100,000 worth of Tesla shares? Within America
in the 1980s, non-bank financial institutions, which are things like hedge funds, family offices,
and private equity firms, collectively owned assets worth around 40% of GDP. Even for the time,
that gave them a lot of power over the economy and was a consistent concern for lawmakers who
questioned who was really running the show. Today, those same institutions control assets worth 200%
of GDP and growing. Add in the official banking sector, and it's over 300%, although they're
actually falling behind for reasons we'll go into soon enough. Just in America alone, domestic
financial assets are now worth $145 trillion, which was roughly 500% of GDP in 2024. In theory,
the financial industry has an important job in an efficient economy. It enables business growth
and liquidity. It lets people make large purchases that they couldn't afford on the spot. It manages
risk, and it gives people with excess savings a way to earn a return while growing the economy.
But if the finance industry gets too big, people will no longer use it as a tool to finance
their businesses, home purchases, or retirement savings. They will instead use their businesses,
home purchases, and retirement savings as a tool to serve the financial industry. So,
the question is, are we already there? How much debt do you have? Close to 10,000. 10,000. $10,000
worth of debt. 11,000 for my student loan. And then, uh $200 is on my credit card right now. $1
trillion dollars in profit, right, is unfathomably large. When you think about the past decade, it's
really been all about tech. Elon Musk, who bought Twitter back in 2022 and changed the social media
platform's name to X the following year, reveals that his artificial intelligence startup XAI,
has acquired the brand in a lucrative all stock deal. So, the financial industry has grown a lot.
But is that a problem? It's the goal of any industry to grow and make more money. So it's
only really a problem if this growth has come at the expense of everybody else. So let's look
into that. The problem is the finance industry has not only grown, it's changed quite significantly.
institutions like hedge funds, quant firms, private equity, distressed debt, highfrequency
market makers, secondaries funds, structured credit, buy now pay later, spaxs, P2P lending, and
cap funds have all formed their own multi-billion dollar markets within just the last 20 years when
most of them didn't even exist 30 years ago. Some of these functions used to be handled in-house
by traditional banks. But over time, financiers realized they could make more money going out on
their own and starting their own firms that could take on more risk without the regulations that
came with running a bank. Today, boring old banks are only a small part of the overall financial
industry. This also doesn't include the uh weird and wonderful firms that have sprung up around
the cryptocurrency market, but their game is the same. move money around in the hopes of turning it
into more money. It's a game they are really good at. While tech companies may be getting
all the attention for their record valuations, finance has actually been making money. In 2024,
a record 21% of all profits in the US economy were made by the financial industry. And arguably
the only reason big tech gets more attention is because of financial engineering. There are a lot
more businesses in the finance game, but there are also a lot of other institutions trying to
act like financial firms because that's where the money is. For example, most public corporations
have slowly turned themselves into miniature banks in disguise. For the last 40 years,
the competitive corporate meta has been to get companies to buy back their own shares.
These unimaginatively named share buybacks work by creating artificial demand for a company's stock
from the actual company themselves and by limiting the supply of shares in circulation. More demand
and less supply causes prices to rise. Simple enough. But a company buying its own stock also
makes financial indicators like earnings per share look better. Not by increasing earnings through
better sales, new products or even cost cutting, but by simply reducing the number of shares. Share
buybacks have been great for existing investors who have seen immediate stock price increases and
corporate executives whose compensation is tied to short-term market value. But these financial gains
have cast some doubts over the role of finance as a tool to enable real economic development.
When companies spend all their money buying back their own shares, that means they have less money
to spend on research and development to improve their product offering to the market. And it gets
worse than that. Companies have increasingly been spending money they don't even have by
borrowing large sums of money to keep on doing stock buybacks. At that point, these businesses
are effectively leveraged buyout funds that only invest in a single stock, their own.
It's not exactly a great long-term business plan. This system also means that there's less capital
available to new firms who want to enter the market in the first place. Now, private businesses
are going to do whatever they are allowed to do. But if you ask any economist what the financial
industry is supposed to do, they're going to give you some kind of anecdote about a farmer who wants
to grow food but doesn't have enough money to buy land and seeds. So, the farmer borrows money from
a bank and then pays it back with the profits from their harvest. And everybody wins. The farmer gets
to start their business, the bank gets interest, and the economy gets more food. But that's just
the story. What's actually happening is existing farms are taking out loans to buy back stock from
their shareholders instead of buying new equipment or investing in new crops because producing good
financial results is more profitable than producing actual food. In other words,
the scale of the finance industry has actually discouraged innovation instead of encouraging it.
But if the financial industry has shifted to financing finance,
who's paying for all the tech breakthroughs these companies are making? Well, statistically,
you are. The scale of tax subsidies, research grants, and other government payments to encourage
businesses to make improvements has more than quadrupled in OECD countries since the year 2000.
You're probably already thinking of high-profile examples like SpaceX, weapons developers,
and EV manufacturers, but there's literally a booklet filled with different credits available to
businesses to invest in themselves. Some of these incentives need to be read with a hint of irony,
like a tax credit for coal exploration, listed in the same section as a tax credit
for low emission energy investments and carbon sequestration. Now, in the interest of fairness,
I must point out that government funded research has fallen considerably. At the same time, the
idea has been that instead of directly spending taxpayer money on conducting research themselves,
they're just enabling the private sector to do it for them with some incentives funded by
the taxpayer. The problem this creates is that when the government made a research discovery
in the past, anybody could use it for commercial purposes. So, the benefits of new technologies
were quickly felt by everybody. But when a private company makes a discovery, even if it's funded by
generous tax incentives, they own that IP, so only they can profit from it. If you're a company CEO,
this has made strategic planning pretty simple for you. Businesses will invest
whatever they must into innovation to max out their subsidies, and anything else is reserved
for financial engineering. Oh, and one more thing, the way they make those investments has
also changed. Sand Hill Road is a 5.6 6mi arterial corridor running through Palo Alto, Menllo Park,
and Woodside in California. The road is famous for being home to the headquarters of Sequoia Capital,
A16Z, Menllo Ventures, and Blackstone's California headquarters. All of these are venture capital
firms that have taken over the role of providing early stage finance to promising new businesses.
The amount of money coming out of these financial institutions has given this road the nickname the
Wall Street of the West. But their dominance within a growing financial industry has also
changed the way businesses operate. Today, these companies are investing billions of dollars on
anything with AI in it. 10 years ago, they were doing the same with crypto. A decade before that,
it was the user networks. And a decade before that, it was anything with a.com in the name.
These firms don't necessarily believe that these are the most promising businesses to
invest in. They just know that they're going to be what is the easiest to offload into financial
markets. If the market is hungry enough for the next trend, venture capitalists can sell
their early investments before the businesses turn a profit. Sometimes even before they make
any revenue or even have a working product. This hurts existing market participants that have to
compete against businesses not following the usual rules of business. For example, late last week,
Plexity, a venture-backed AI startup, offered to buy the Chrome web browser off Google for
$34.5 billion in an allcash deal. Plexity has only raised $1 billion in funding since being founded 2
and a half years ago. And today it's valued at $14 billion according to Reuters. But the deal
couldn't be written off as a joke because venture capital firms are sitting on so much money that
an AI company with the right connections could easily make this happen. Now, if you think this
sounds dumb, that's because it is. Normal markets should not work like this, but an endless pool of
financial capital has made games like this possible. For big companies, the growth of
this earlystage financial ecosystem has made their R&D really easy. They don't need to take the risks
themselves. They just need to be prepared to buy any businesses that make innovations they want.
The interest on the debt that companies use to make this happen is also deductible. So for many
finance departments, it simply makes more sense to pay interest than to pay tax. Businesses still
eventually need to deliver a product or service to market. But in modern markets, a business plan has
effectively just turned into a marketing campaign where what they are really trying to sell is their
own stock. If you're still trying to decide where to put your $100,000 from the beginning of this
video, then here is the breakdown. According to company financials, Tesla shares are currently
worth 196 times more than the company earns in a single year. Musk might have access to the best
healthcare and life-standing technology money can buy, but he and his company are unlikely
to be around for 196 more years to collect those earnings. So, it makes more sense for him to sell
his shares as long as he can keep finding willing investors. A $100,000 Cybertruck only makes around
$4,000 for the company according to a generous interpretation of their finances and accounting
for environmental credits. But $4,000 multiplied by $196 should increase the stock value by nearly
$800,000. If only it worked that way. Tesla is the most transparent example, but underlying financial
performance only has a loose correlation to the stock price in a lot of highly valued companies.
Musk recently secured a pay packet worth more than all the profit the company has ever made
in its operating history, demonstrating that it was never about his ability to sell cars.
It was about his ability to sell the idea of selling cars to shareholders. Okay, so maybe
the financial industry has grown large enough that it's slowly corrupting the pure intentions of how
capitalism is supposed to reward businesses. But not all finance is just about investments.
It's also about managing risk. According to the Bank for International Settlements,
the global derivatives market is now worth between 600 billion and $1 quadrillion.
We don't actually know for sure because most of these services are provided over-the-counter,
which really means behind closed doors in private agreements. Derivatives are like insurance
contracts that can protect against unfavorable price changes for businesses. For example,
if a business is shipping soybeans from Brazil to China, that voyage will take around 2 weeks.
And in that time, the price of those beans could have changed in the global markets. So,
the businesses can enter into an options contract where they pay a small commission for the right
to sell their soybeans to a counterparty for a predetermined price, which means they don't have
to worry about the soybean market falling because they've already got a guaranteed buyer. Well,
that's how it's supposed to work. But these financial products don't actually change
the chances of the soybean market collapsing or interest rates rising or your car getting stolen.
Insurance and derivative contracts just moves that risk from one party to another. The reason that
this market is worth 6 to 10 times global GDP is because it's become a very efficient way to gamble
on the outcomes of events. And this is how all this affects you. Even individual people are more
financialized than they've ever been before. You right now probably have several different forms of
debt, perhaps more than you even realize. credit cards, student loans, car loans, personal loans,
buy now pay later loans, earned waged advances, cell phone plans, and if you're lucky enough,
maybe even a mortgage. Stagnating wages have been a problem for consumer focused economies,
which rely on people spending their money to grow. If people don't earn enough money, they
can't spend enough money. But finance has come to fill that gap, profiting off the difference.
Even people who are not living pay check to pay check are influenced by the whims of financial
institutions and their lending practices. According to the survey of consumer finances,
the largest asset owned by middle-class households is the house they live in. The top 10% own almost
all the stocks, but the poorer the household, the more their wealth is statistically tied up in real
estate. Why? It's because it's a lot easier for a middle-ass household to finance the purchase of a
home than it is for them to finance the purchase of a stock portfolio. Consumer mortgages are what
have allowed home prices to rise even as incomes have remained largely stagnant, which means we
tie most of our wealth up in the home that we live in and spend most of our working lives paying it
off. The finance sector makes 20% of the profits in the economy without actually making anything.
Finance does help to oil up the engine of commerce, but if 20% of your engine is being used
just to pump oil around your engine, you might have a broken system. If you need another example,
go and watch this video next to find out why a handful of countries are investing as much
as three times their entire economic output into America and why they're doing it now.
Ask follow-up questions or revisit key timestamps.
The financial industry in America has grown exponentially, with non-bank financial institutions now controlling assets worth 200% of GDP, a significant increase from 40% in the 1980s. While traditionally meant to facilitate economic growth, liquidity, and risk management, the industry has evolved into a system where businesses and individuals serve financial interests. New types of financial firms have emerged, taking on more risk without traditional banking regulations. Many public corporations now engage in financial engineering, using share buybacks to inflate stock prices and earnings per share rather than investing in innovation. Innovation is increasingly funded by government subsidies, but private companies retain the intellectual property, limiting public benefit. Venture capital firms prioritize trending investments (like AI or crypto) that are easy to offload into markets, often leading to speculative valuations before companies generate revenue or products. The global derivatives market, valued at 6 to 10 times global GDP, has become more of a gambling mechanism than a risk management tool. Individuals are also highly financialized, with various forms of debt filling the gap left by stagnant wages and tying most of their wealth to real estate. The finance sector now accounts for 20% of US economic profits without producing anything, suggesting a potentially dysfunctional system where finance consumes a disproportionate share of economic activity.
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