Do you think that the United States has just lost the war in Iran?

I don't think they've lost the ball, but they're certainly being pulled in a lot

of different directions. President Trump really wants a deal

ahead of the midterm elections. He wants the economy in a solid

position. He doesn't want to see inflation

increase when voters go to the polls. Uh, but there are other actors here.

There's the Republicans in the Congress. There is Israel, which has made very

clear that it's unhappy with the contours of these deal and wants, uh,

Lebanon and the ability to continue to strike Hezbollah in Lebanon, to continue

to be part of that agreement as well, rather than off the table.

So, uh, I don't think they've lost the ball, but there.

But he's certainly being pulled in different directions by different

stakeholders in this in this negotiation.

Rachel, I wonder how close you think the US really is to a deal here,

particularly on reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

We've heard positive language over the weekend.

President Trump yesterday saying that negotiations were proceeding nicely,

that perhaps contrasting to the picture we see this morning.

Iran obviously has a degree of leverage here, with the Strait of Hormuz perhaps

beginning to affect markets that closure.

Are we close to a deal or could Iran be holding out here?

Well, this war is not over. And we've seen this back and forth

before, where there are very positive pronouncements by the president and his

team that a deal is imminent, that a deal is close.

Only to find out that the two parties were quite far apart.

So I do not think we are close to a deal.

I was it's probably about 5,050% in either direction whether the deal will

be closed in some form or fashion, or whether strikes will continue to put

more pressure on Iran to come to the table in terms of safe passage.

I mean, this is what investors are focused on, um, whether oil can get

through the Strait of Hormuz. I mean, some are concerned that if that

doesn't happen within the next few days or weeks, that that's going to cause

global recession. Others reject that idea.

How close are we to that being feasible? And, you know, in the past we've heard

this idea of safe passage being facilitated by European countries and

others. How realistic is any of that?

Even if this conflict is resolved tomorrow and the street reopens.

There are thousands of ships waiting to pass through it.

There are refineries that have been hit. So global oil production and that flow

and that that balance that we're used to is not going to be restored overnight.

In terms of the ability to guarantee safe passage, that's something even the

United States Navy has not been able to achieve.

There have been small numbers of ships passing through, either because the

Iranians have allowed it, or because the United States has provided sufficient

authorities. But I don't see a will or an appetite on

behalf of the big shipping companies or insurance companies to go back to

allowing ships through at the pace and frequency, um, that we had before,

simply because they're not comfortable about the credibility of the deal and

that that ability to, um, to, to provide for safe passage.

And that's a dangerous precedent, not just in the Strait of Hormuz, but across

the globe, if we've got a country like Iran that is trying to charge tolls,

that is trying to mine the strait and create doubts around what what aspects

or parts of the strait are safe or not at any given time in terms of the world

as you see it now coming into this role now at Russi, what is your view about

the level of danger that we are in? I mean, there is talk in Ukraine, for

example, that, uh, Russia is running out of steam even though we've been at war.

You know, the Ukrainians have been at war for years now.

What is the state of of global security now and how much more elevated is that

with the Trump White House, with some worried that Cuba may be next?

Well, it's very easy to to say that, you know, the world's a dangerous place.

It's never been more dangerous. But I do think we are in a period of

unique disruption, coupled with the fact that nobody in particular is in charge.

We have a lot of actors, uh, who are trying to exert their influence.

And it's not just the big ones like the United States or China or the European

Union. Asymmetric actors like Iran have power.

They have leverage. They can complicate things for those

larger nations. And so I think for the foreseeable

future, we will see, um, you know, varying coalitions of nations coming

together to try to resolve issues. We will see a breakdown and have already

seen a breakdown in what people refer to as the rules based international order

and different countries trying to rewrite that.

And of course, you know, for for market watchers, that means volatility, which

offers both chaos and opportunity. Okay.

Chaos and opportunity. How does the UK fit into that?

Um, Bloomberg Radio spent a lot of time focused on defence spending in Britain.

It is not a conversation that has really been aired.

You know, there is an understanding that the UK needs to spend more, but where

that money comes from has not been answered.

Do you have any hope that any of the candidates who may take over from Keir

Starmer as Prime Minister actually have a better answer.

The UK is a really important piece of responding to this global chaos.

Whether I'm in Norway, in the High North, or at a NATO meeting, or I'm in

the Indo-Pacific talking to the Japanese or the South Koreans, or in the Middle

East, uh, having conversations with some of the Gulf countries.

They see the United Kingdom as a valuable and essential partner, and they

are really looking for the United Kingdom to help them diversify their

defence, security, political and economic relationships.

So we need a strong UK that does have a strong economy, growth and defence

spending. I don't think we're there yet.

Um, I you know, I hesitate to criticize any one politician.

Uh, but if we just look at the numbers, uh, if you've got a defence strategy

that says NATO first and you can barely meet that NATO target of 3.5% on core

defence spending, that's a problem at some point to your allies and partners

around the world are going to question your credibility and your ability to

come to their aid, uh, in a difficult situation.