The No.1 Productivity Expert: 10,000 Hours Is A Lie! This Morning Habit Is Ruining Your Day!
3879 segments
I always told that if you do 10,000
hours in anything you become a master in
it well that's wrong this idea
undermines this broader toolbox that you
need for long-term development if you're
doing that then you're missing
opportunities David Epstein is a New
York Times best-selling author whose
Infamous work challenges the
conventional wisdom about specialization
productivity and what it takes to become
successful what advice would you give to
a person that's thinking about how to
navigate their way to being really good
at something first of all being a
scientist of your own development and
creating what's called a self-reg
practice what is that so the cycle is
flect what do you need to work on plan
come up with an experiment for how you
can work on that is that getting a job
is it taking a class Monitor and then
evaluate and people who do that
repeatedly they just keep improving two
so for anything you're doing if you're
not 15 20% of the time failing then
you're not in your zone of optimal push
where you're getting as much better as
you possibly can what about Focus I get
distracted easily and I want to be more
productive in the time that I spend
working don't start your day with email
it's been shocking to look at the
research how big of an impairment that
is what about notifications so if you're
getting distracted all the time if you
say well now I really have to hunker
down I'm going to get rid of the
notifications you will start self
interrupting to maintain the
interruptions to which you have become
accustomed really yeah that will go away
but not immediately but there's a lot of
things that you can do for a productive
day for example if you that has enormous
influence in your productivity
interesting the other thing I found
which was pretty shocking was they start
talking about some of the dangers of
specialism yes Harvard Leed studies
found if you're in hospital with certain
cardiac conditions when the most
esteemed Specialists are aware way
you're less likely to die gosh that's
terrifying the conclusion was that's
because this is a sentence I never
thought I'd say in my life um we've just
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heart let's get to the
[Music]
conversation David
yes how do you summarize the work that
you do and why you do it and who are you
really doing it for I am obsessed with
correcting what I view as
mistranslations of scientific research
about human development and so that is
the core of my work and I think I'm
doing it for everyone who is curious but
either doesn't have a scientific
background or doesn't have that
particular scientific background curious
but interested in self-improvement but
doesn't either have the time or or the
means to to go sifting through this
evidence themselves and what is the sort
of Realms of self-improvement that you
have focused on thus far in your career
well earlier on I was focused in
physical skill acquisition like in in
athletics but increasingly uh I've moved
into career and personal development
generally and looking at that with a
very very kind of long lens right so one
of the most important things to me one
of the most important messages that I've
been working on the last few years is
the fact that sometimes optimizing for
short-term development will undermine
your long-term development so let's say
if we're thinking about sports or music
or something like that the obvious thing
to do is to get a head start and
whatever you're doing pick something
stick with it don't don't switch things
because then you've lost time Focus ver
very narrowly and do as much of it as
you possibly can to the exclusion of
other things that's such an obvious way
right and you will jump out to to a lead
right we see that in sports and music we
see that in school with certain Head
Start programs that give people an
advantage in some academic
skills the problem is that kind of
narrow Focus creates short-term results
but undermines this broader toolbox that
you need for long-term development and
so you'll see what scientists call Fade
Out in these advantages which isn't
isn't necessarily actually anything
going away it's the fact that people
with this broader base will catch up and
surpass so it appears to be a fade out
okay so if you take more time to get a
broader understanding of something
whether it's in sports If you're sort of
a child prodigy um over the long term
that's going to benefit you better and
help sustain your development but in the
short term you might lose out because
there's some kid who is doing you know
really deliberate practice obsessively
and he's going to have a it's kind of
like the tortoise in the hair yeah
analogy where you know the tortoise uh
eventually wins the race yeah I mean
there's a there's a a big body of
research in Psychology that can be
summarized with the phrase breadth of
training predicts breadth of transfer
okay transfer is the
ability of someone to take skills and
knowledge and use it to solve a problem
they haven't seen before right you
transfer to a new situation and what
predicts your ability to do that is the
breadth of problems you've been exposed
to in practice if you're exposed to like
a broader set of problems you're forced
to build these
generalizable flexible models that
you'll be able to apply to new things
going forward across all of your work at
the very heart of what people are trying
to achieve in their lives what is that
at the very very heart of what they're
trying to achieve that you're speaking
to getting better getting better at
things right obviously people want
success but I think there's pretty
significant research showing that people
are often actually reacting to their
trajectory as much as their act actual
absolute performance level that the
feeling of improvement the feeling of
moving on it gives them some sense of
fulfillment right and eventually
obviously will get them to to a higher
level and so I think really this is for
people who are interested in how do I
get off sort of my plateaus going
forward and viewing it as as a lifelong
journey as opposed to trying to Peak
when they're 12 right it turns out that
the way to make the best 20-year-old
30-year old 40-year-old is not the same
as the way to make the best 10-year-old
is is there sort of a tie here with the
subject of just happiness and how to
live a happy life fulfillment for sure
yeah those aren't exactly the same but
they're important so so to think about
this in a career development perspective
right I think probably the most
interesting research on fulfillment in
careers was this project at Harvard
called the Darkhorse project
and this was looking at how do people
find a lot of these people were very
financially successful and all that
stuff but the dependent variable was
fulfillment okay sense fulfillment and
when people would come in for sort of an
orientation in this study they would say
things to the researchers like uh you
know I started off doing this one thing
I was Medical School whatever didn't
really fit me so I went over to this
other thing and I I learned I was good
at something I didn't expect so then I
went this other direction and you know I
came don't tell people to do what I did
because like I came out of nowhere and
the large majority of people that was
their story that's why became named the
Darkhorse project Darkhorse is this
expression that means coming out of
nowhere and that the norm in this day
and age was that people who found
fulfillment would travel this kind of
zigzagging path where they would learn
maybe I'm good at something or bad at
something that I didn't expect maybe I'm
interested in something I didn't expect
and they would keep pivoting and they
would say instead of saying you know
here's this person younger than me who
has more than me they'd say here's who I
am right now here are my skills and
interests here are the opportunities in
front of me uh I'm going to try this one
and maybe I'll change a year from now
because I will have learned something
about myself and they keep doing those
pivots throughout their career
throughout their career until they
achieve what Economist call better match
quality that's the degree of fit between
someone's interests and abilities and
the work that they do turns out to be
extremely important for both your
performance and and sense of fulfillment
uh and your apparent grit if you want to
talk about that so so just on that
before we move on to grip the does what
advice does that then mean you would
give to a young person at the start of
their career that's thinking about how
to navigate their way to being both
really competent really good at
something and successful in any sort of
uh monetary way but also maintaining
fulfillment um throughout their life I
think there are two two main things to
take away from that one is to not over
focus on long-term planning like I think
we we lionize having long-term goals and
that's okay there's nothing wrong with
having long-term goals
but those aren't necessarily always so
useful for you in the moment right when
I think about myself when I was a
competitive 800 meter Runner I could
have a time goal for the end of the race
but that didn't help me actually do
anything that just you see the clock
when you're done and you're either happy
or sad having goals that are let me try
let me try moving with 300 meters to go
that gives you an actionable experiment
so short-term planning I think is is one
of the takeaways uh and and creating
what's called a self-regulatory practice
so self-regulatory learning
is means basically thinking about your
own thinking taking accountability for
your for your own learning and some of
some of the coolest studies in
self-regulatory learning actually came
out of soccer football done in the
Netherlands where this woman named Ry
elfring gemer was following kids from
the age of 12 right up through some of
them went on to teams that um you know
were Runners up in the world
cup and what she'd see in the kids who
got off performance plateaus there were
certain physi measur someone had to have
like if a kid couldn't hit at least 7 me
a second sprinting which isn't that fast
but if they couldn't hit it they weren't
making it to the top that's so there
were physiological parameters but also
the kids who would get off performance
plateaus were the ones where if you look
at them in video when they're they're
younger they're saying going to the
trainer like why are we doing this drill
I think I can do this already like I
think I need to work on this other thing
and and you know sometimes a trainer
might be like oh man just get back in
line you know but these are the kids
that are thinking about what they need
to work on what they're good at they're
making this cycle the the
self-regulatory cycle is reflect what
are you good or bad at what do you need
to work on how do you need to do that
plan come up with an experiment for how
you can work on that monitor a way to
try to measure whether objectively or
subjectively and then evaluate did that
experiment that I ran work and making me
better at this thing or not and people
who do that repeatedly they just keep
improving and I think that's what the
dark horses are doing in their careers
they're saying I'm reflecting on what
I've got I'm planning a way to test
something that'll fit me I monitor it
maybe subjectively maybe objectively and
then I evaluate what that tells me to do
for the next step and you just get
better and better and better over time
so if I'm say I'm in my early 20s in my
career how do I take that and then
Implement Implement that in a within my
life to make sure that I'm going to get
to the World Cup metaphorically speaking
Yeah so and there's something
interesting about the 20s that I think
is worth saying which is there's this
finding in Psychology called the end of
History illusion and this is the finding
that we always underestimate how much we
will change what we think we're good at
what we think we're bad at how we want
to spend our time what we prioritize in
friends
Etc and EV at every step in life people
underestimate how much they'll change in
the future change continues for your
whole life it does slow down so we're
constantly Works in progress claiming to
be finished constantly through life the
fastest time of Personality change is
about 18 to about
28 when you're telling but it never
stops but that's about the fastest time
when we're telling people hey now you
have to have it figured out right
and that's when they're changing like
crazy and so I think it's even more
important to have this self-regulatory
practice in a journal I would say I mean
I do it these questions can be basic
what am I trying to do why what do I
need to learn to do it who do I need to
help me learn that how am I going to
make sure that person is there to help
me what experiment can I set up to try
it and then come back and evaluate the
experiment and pick a next one be being
a scientist of your own development I
think is Inc it it's it's
counterintuitive because you would think
that we would just internalize this
stuff just from doing things M but the
science is pretty clear that we we don't
get everything we can out of our
experiences from a learning perspective
unless we're doing it more explicitly so
I would recommend for someone in their
20s to start this self-regulatory
practice what got you into the work that
you do and how did you define your
profession okay so in my past life I was
training to be a scientist environmental
scientist I was like living up in the
Arctic studying the carbon cycle like in
a tent um and I had been a competitive
Runner I had a training partner who was
one of the top ranked guys in the 800
meters in his age group in the country
uh first family of Jamaican immigrants
was going to be the first one to
graduate college Dro dead a few steps
after a
race uh and our sort of Hometown paper
said well he had a heart attack I don't
even know what that means for someone of
that age and health
right and I got curious and eventually I
kind
of worked up the courage or whatever
that sounds silly to say it that way but
um was nervous about it to ask his
family to sign a waiver allowing me to
gather up his medical records did that
turned out he had like a textbook case
of this disease caused by a single
genetic mutation that's almost always
the cause of young athletes dropping
dead and I said we can save some people
from this with more awareness and I
wanted I decided to merge my interests
in sports and science said I want to
write about sudden cardiac death and
athletes for Sports Illustrated which I
grew up with so I got off the science
track I left after my
masters uh kind of weaved my way to
sports illustra I got in there as a temp
pitch this story about sudden cardiac
death and athletes they're like temp sit
down right and then the Olympic Marathon
trials for 2008 US team uh came to
Central Park and the guy ranked fifth in
the country dropped dead like 10 blocks
from our office and then they said don't
you know something about this and so you
know in a week I was able to write a
cover story making it look like we had
done like two years of research in a
week and I became the science writer at
Sports Illustrated it was an
interesting you know I came in there as
a temp six seven years behind people who
were younger than me MH doing sort of
more remedial work for them but I
realized pretty soon that my Oddball
background right I I think I was shaping
up to be like a typical average
scientist but you take those average
science skills and you bring them to
sports magazines like you're like a
Nobel laurate you know um and so I
realized I I could just make my own
ground instead of having to compete with
anybody but the initial impetus for
getting into this merger of sports and
science was was a personal tragedy and
how did you define yourself from a crib
perspective of a writer are you a
scientist how' you I view myself as this
merger between a science writer and
investigative reporter because what
really fires me up is when I view that
there's a really popular misconception
about something really important to
human development and that that's that's
what led to range I mean I was at Sports
Illustrated the 10,000 hours rule work
was the most
famous science in human development
perhaps ever in terms of popular
consumption and I said well I want to
write about it and then I started
reading the research and saying this is
wrong it's the most popular finding in
our field it's maybe the most popular
skill acquisition human development
research ever done and it is not right
and so those you know these things kind
of stick in my brain and I I have to do
something about it 10,000 hours what is
that for someone that's never heard
about it before yeah and what people
think about it probably depends where
they have heard of it if they've heard
of it but it's the idea and scientists
call it the deliberate practice
framework but it's this idea that the
only route to True expertise is through
10,000 hours of so-called deliberate
practice which is this effortful
cognitively engaged like not just
swatting balls at the driving range
you're focusing on correcting errors
kind of practice and that there is no
such thing as Talent differences it's
really just the
manifestation uh of 10,000 hours of you
know of differences in your amount of
hours of delivered practice so you
should start as early as possible and
there's something underlying it this is
a little nerdy but called the monotonic
benefits assumption I know scientists
not going to win any marketing
competitions but that basically means
that the idea that two people at the
same level of performance will progress
the same amount for the same unit of
deliberate practice also false and it's
one of the underlying premises of a
10,000 hour rule yeah because I've
always I've always heard that I mean
it's become a bit of a colloquial phrase
to say you've not put your 10,000 hours
in which means you've not put enough
practice to become a master I I I mean I
mean I was told that if you do 10,000
hours in anything you become a master in
it that's the kind of narrative right
well to take some chess research for
example there's uh people have been
tracked and it takes about 11,053 hours
on average to reach International Master
status in chess so that's one level down
from Grandmas so first of all 10,000
hours in that case would be a little low
but some people made it in 3,000 hours
because they learn a little bit more
quickly other people were continuing to
be tracked past 20,000 hours and they
still hadn't made it so you can have
11,053 hours rule on the average doesn't
actually tell you anything about the
breadth of human skill development so
why why is that so important for me to
understand how does that liberate me
from from wasting my time or aiming at
the wrong thing well fit turns out to be
really important so people learn at
different rates and different things so
finding where you learn better is really
important if you want to maximize your
advantages and I think that goes back to
one of the reasons why people need to
try a bunch of different things CU
you're insight into yourself is really
like limited by your roster of
experiences right um and so you kind of
need to figure out where you have
comparative advantages but for a lot of
people that's so-called skill stacking
where instead of doing the one thing for
10,000 hours you get proficient at a
number of things and overlap them in a
way that makes you very unique and so I
think this idea of just head down doing
the same thing I mean we can should we
go back all the way and talk about the
the research underlying the 10,000 hour
Ru because that's where I first got onto
this I wanted to so I was a walk-on
meaning I wasn't good enough to get
recruited as an 800 meter runner in
college and I ended up being part of a
university record holding relay so I
went from being uh you know a nobody to
being quite good and so I was inclined
to believe this 10,000 hours like yeah
just you know just my hard work and then
when I started reading the research and
I'm looking through the original paper
written in 1993 and the original paper
was done on 30 violinists 30 violinists
at a world-class Music Academy okay so
let's let's start dissecting the the
problems here the first problem was
what's called a restriction of range
these people were already in a
world-class Music Academy already highly
pre-selected pre-selected for something
again for the stat heads here that is
correlated with your dependent variable
which is skill that's a problem if
you're trying to develop a general skill
development framework that would be like
to give an analogy if I did a study of
what causes basketball skill and I used
it as my subject's only centers in the
NBA and I said well height has no effect
on skill in the NBA because they're all
7 feet tall so I've squashed the
variation in that variable so in in my
first book actually did an analytics
project where I took height among
American male adults and height in the
NBA as you might imagine there's a very
high positive correlation between a
height of an American male and their
chance of scoring points in the NBA but
if you restrict the range to only
players already in the
NBA the correlation turns negative
because guards score more points than
other positions mhm so if you didn't
know that if you just did that study
with only NBA players you would tell
parents to have shorter children to have
them score more points in the NBA so
when you don't bring some sense of
what's going on to your research and you
rest strict range that way you can end
up with the wrong message aside from
that Gods score more points or less
points they score more points and
they're shorter ah okay right so if you
if you don't look at the whole
population and you just look at people
who are so highly pre-screened they're
already at the top you can end up with
these sort of backward advice
the other issue that caught my eye when
I first read the study was that there
was they only reported the average
10,000 hours was the average number of
hours of deliberate practice by the the
10 best violinists by the age of 20 and
then there was a second group and a
lower group and they said there was
complete correspondence meaning nobody
who had practiced fewer hours was better
than anyone who had practiced more hours
but they only included the average so I
couldn't tell that so I said oh I would
like to know if that's true can I see
the data to see if that's true and I so
I contacted the you know Andre Ericson a
wonderful guy who was the so father of
the 10,000 hour rule although he hated
that uh moniker actually um and I said
you know can I see the data or the
measures of variance to know how much
variation there was between individuals
and he said well you know people were
inconsistent on their repeated accounts
of their practice so we don't think
that's important I said well everyone
has trouble with getting good data that
doesn't mean they don't report the
measure variance so after I started
criticizing This
research 20 years after the study came
out they did a paper updating it with
some of the actual data and you could
see the original conclusion was wrong
there was not complete correspondence
some people who had practiced less were
better than some people who had practice
more some people had gone way over
10,000 hours some people were way under
and had done better there were all sorts
of other factors that mattered right
like I like to call it the 625,000 hours
of sleep study because the top tier
group got a lot more sleep they were
sleeping like 60 hours a week on average
compared to lower groups and that was a
a huge difference in the study how much
they were sleeping so it could have just
been sleep sleep or but there was just
tremendous individual variation yeah so
this idea of an average completely
obscured the real story which was that
there were actually people who were
practicing less and doing better than
people who practiced more so there were
all one problem after another I just
said you know I'm getting Youth Sports
pitches I'm getting investment pitches
like citing the 10,000 hours rule it's
not right and it's giving the wrong
impression
of how hum devel and this idea that you
need to just Pi something and with it
and that's sampling to try to figure out
where you have your best shot is
worthless and that's wrong and so I
became kind of obsessed with getting
after
that I really want to become successful
in the things that I'm applying myself
to in the season of my life so whether
that's podcasting or starting businesses
my business portfolio is quite varied of
sort of different industries from
everything from sort of psychedelics to
um SpaceX to whatever it might be and so
when I was you know thinking about
sitting down with you today I thought
maybe I'll just tell him where I'm
trying to get to in my life I'm a I'm a
30-year old man so you know I'm I'm not
in the early phases of my career does
that mean for example that I can't make
ground now what phase of your career are
you in I don't know because I had this
18 to 28 thing so I thought maybe I'm a
little bit more rigid and you know there
was research a few years ago from MIT
and Northwestern and the US Census
Bureau that found the average age of a
founder of a fast growing Tech startup
top one in 10,000
guess what the average age was on the
day of founding guess 25 45 and a
50-year-old had a better chance than a
30-year-old but we never hear just like
we never hear the story of these like
Zig zaggers we only hear the Tiger Wood
story we only hear like Mark Zuckerberg
famously said young people are just
smarter when he was 22 do you hear him
saying that anymore no surprise surprise
but we just we never we we like valorize
precocity so I would not say that you're
not in the early stages of your career
you're certainly not by by that metric
and that's not to say that there aren't
tremendous companies or if you know
measured by market cap that some of that
there are these amazing young
Founders but they get outsized attention
compared to what's the norm that that's
another thing that's really important to
me is not to say there aren't acceptions
because there as many different ways to
the top as there are human beings but I
think we're constantly focusing on the
exception when people should at least be
aware of the norm so the average so the
fastest growing did you say Tech
Founders Tech startups but Tech in Tech
in this context also included things in
agriculture right it's not just photos
sharing apps like Tech broadly speaking
which I think is important because it I
think it's fair to say that it's less
likely a 55-year-old would understand
some of the more emerging platforms that
are native to say you know like a Mark
Zuckerberg at 22 who's messing around in
his dorm room with with computers and
the internet yeah I think that's fair
but technology touches a lot of other
areas of the you know it's like
yesterday on the way here there was a I
was learning about a software that I had
never heard of because all of the
computers were down in the airport right
Technologies in all these places that we
that are not as kind of uh don't have
the sort of figure head that's publicly
profiled the same way so if I if I do
want to become okay so I understand that
this season of my life I can do whatever
I want in terms of I can aim at whatever
I want doesn't mean I'm going to be good
at it but if I just want to be more
productive in the goals that I am aiming
at so say you know this podcast means a
lot to me so I want to be more
productive when it comes to figuring out
how to move this podcast forward how to
innovate um how to solve some of the
problems and challenges that we
face what are the first things that
spring to mind when I start speaking
about productivity with a very focused
task I mean I think your a challenge for
you is going to be that this podcast has
gotten so big and you've gotten so
competent at it that you're going to be
in what uh a rut of competence or what
Economist Russ Roberts told me a hammock
of competence you're in an area where
you're so comfortable and so successful
that getting better is going to be
harder because there's disincentive from
changing anything that you're doing
right and you have to take some risks I
mean you know that you're an
entrepreneur if you're going to want to
get better you're going to have to take
some risk I think that's going to be a
difficult thing to do because you know
there are people in this room that
depend on you uh risk for you is risk
for them too and so I think you have to
start thinking about what would be some
smart risks if you want to innovate with
the podcast what might that look like
and finding ways to run small
experiments I'm a huge fan of low stakes
practice right how can you set up some
low stakes practice for what might be a
worthwhile larger experiment and I think
that's the same
for individuals dring in their career
like I love this phras my my favorite my
absolute favorite phrase in range was is
a paraphrase from this woman named
herminia Ibara who's a professor at the
London business school and she studies
how people make work transitions so her
phrase was we learn who we are in
practice not in theory so the thesis of
her work is that there's this idea that
you can just introspect and go forth and
know what you should be doing you know
like like Clark Kent running into a
phone booth and ripping off his and
becoming comes out as Superman but work
is part of identity and it doesn't
change like that from introspect you
actually have to go try something see
how it went what was unexpected what did
you learn that you might be interested
in or or that you're better at that you
didn't what's something that you're good
at that you realize you're not
using and then you make your next step
based on that right and I think when
you're so competent and successful and
getting only you know tons of positive
feedback for something uh it becomes
hard to take risk and so I think that'll
be a challenge for you because if you
take a sufficient amount of risk right
you want to be in your zone of of
optimal push so for anything you're
doing if you're doing practicing
whatever physical skill anything if
you're not at least like 15 20% of the
time failing then you're not in your
zone of optimal push where you're
getting as much better as you possibly
can and I
think when you have something that's
very successful that's hard and so I
would start thinking about what risks
you're willing to take and it doesn't
mean it's a failure if something goes
backward right if the views go down or
whatever metric you're you're measuring
on it's interesting it's supp to see
something it's one of my great
obsessions in life and it's also one of
the things that keeps me up at night
bugs me in the shower is um how to keep
a team conducting experiments and
failing more when they are successful so
when this podcast went to number one in
Europe I hir ahead of failure and her
sole responsibility is to increase the
rate of failure and experimentation in
our team which means just get all of our
different departments we've got
different departments in this particular
business so there's 40 40 odd people in
this company called the D CEO and there
is a production team there is the social
media team there's the commercial team
for example and there's the guest
booking and Logistics team and I I felt
we're actually in La driving down the
road and I was speaking to jamaa who's
the head of the guest booking and
research team and I was saying like one
of the the most important thing now now
that we're number one is that we keep
like disrupting ourselves because
there's going to be some kid like we
were three three years ago that because
of their naivity that they're not
encumbered by all of this sort of like
convention and all this success so hide
a head of failure and experimentation
who's in our team has been working and
now in in the last couple of days we're
running an experiment where every single
one of those departments has essentially
like a failure assistant in it who is
who's because you know what happens with
people they they get busy doing their
job and experimentation and failure is
always secondary to their job so if we
put failure people into the each team
and they drive the experiments they
understand the team they drive the
experiments they measure them and most
importantly they report their failures
and experiments back to the whole team
because there's really transferable
learnings for example there was one the
other day where the social media team
discovered this thing on Tik Tok which
allows us to look at a guest like you
and find your most popular videos ever
on Tik Tok with a click and the social
media team had figured that out which
was really useful for them but then the
research team over here that are booking
guests who are trying to find the best
videos that a David has ever made they
also benefited from just the discovery
of that button because instead of having
to scroll through the entire Tik Tok
they can press one button and see your
most popular videos so it's all there's
this real 1 plus 1 equal 3 getting the
teams to share their fails failures and
experiments so they don't have to fail
in the same ways so what did you just
write down this this brings up so much
stuff because the fundamental problem
you're getting at here is the one called
the explore exploit tradeoff right um
and so explore is what it sounds like
looking for new knowledge or new things
that you can do that'll add value
exploit is taking stuff you're already
good at that you already know and
drilling down on it and this is like the
fundamental challenge for people in
organizations that did good is once
they've find something they're really
good at and they drill down in it
they tend to ditch explore modee yeah
right and balancing that explore exploit
and there's all these of course you know
these like famous business cases like
Kodak invents the digital camera and
scuttles it because they're like why
would we disrupt our own business but
there was this fascinating work led by a
guy named dashen Wong in Northwestern uh
who does like people will do Career
Development studies looking at 20 people
and he'll look at 20,000 people you know
so his work's just fascinating and he
what he saw in this work with his
colleagues was that people tend to have
hot streaks in their careers their best
work tends to come in
clusters most people will only have one
some people will have more than one if
they're lucky and reliably what precedes
a hot Ste he was looking at I think it
was like 26,000 like film directors
artists
scientists reliably what precedes a hot
streak is a period of exploration where
they're trying these different styles
they're going broad they're they're
keeping a smaller team so they can be
nimble they're moving between teams and
then they find something and they they
drill into it and if going to have
another hot streak they do it again they
Zoom back out and they go to this
explore explore explore and then exploit
so they toggle between these modes
instead of staying just in one but the
clear message of his work is that
exploration precedes a hot streak and if
you don't do the exploration you just
settle into exploit at sort of a
middling level then you're you're kind
of sacrificing your your hot streak so
that that was one of the things that
came up for me the other thing was this
you got to something this idea of people
not only doing things that might fit
fail and I think that's great that they
have the title failure right cuz you'll
have
the uh you know Adam Grant who I think
we both know is he he he mentioned me
some once something called the hippo
effect where it's like the opinion of
the highest paid person in the room I
think the is the acronym where their
their signaling is really important for
everyone else so if you're not just
giving lip service like yeah failure is
good but actually giving people that
title I think that's a great signal for
you're underwriting risk you're
underwriting risk for people
psychologically and you're creating what
what scientists who study sort of
networks like groups of teams call an
import export business of ideas and this
is one of the
Hallmarks of organizations and and
ecosystems that learn and adapt to to a
changing world and the import export
business of ideas means you need to have
information flowing through an
organization you have people doing
different things maybe people even
moving teams here and there so I always
think of the engineer uh Bill Gore who
created the company or founded the
company that created gortex and he
fashioned the company based in his
observation that organizations often do
their most impactful work in times of
Crisis because the disciplinary
boundaries go out the window and people
start what can I learn from my neighbor
you know and working together or do he
like to say real communication happens
in the carpool which I think is a funny
saying but I worry about that with more
hybrid and remote work where you can't
necessarily just rely on Serendipity for
people to be sharing these ideas in this
informal way and so I actually think we
have to be a lot more thoughtful about
setting up our own import export
business of ideas internally and it
sounds to me like that's what you're
doing okay so what about then on in an
individual level how do I as an
individual I've got you know lots of
things I'm doing I'm writing some books
at the moment I do the podcast lots of
other things how do I become more
productive within an organization
because there's my to-do lists I've got
10 to-do lists from all of my different
team members who can put things on there
um I get distracted easily I think
because I end up watching a video about
AI on YouTube or about Rockets or
something and I want to I want to get
more done really I want to be more
productive in the time that I spend
working so this is when you know what
you should be doing when I know and you
know there's nothing wrong with
sometimes like watching YouTube and
Rocket like that's you get ideas from
doing kind of stuff myself but T Todo
lists is a lot of to-do lists yeah do
you get most of the stuff done on those
to-do lists it's more so each team from
my chief of staff to my assistant to my
manager has a to-do list on Monday that
they send things to me on and then I go
through there and it's either a task or
it's an approve or it's just letting me
know something and that's kind of how it
works so I at one point had when I was
getting overwhelmed with some stuff I
had a virtual assistant for a little
while and we would categorize like
emails into list a priority b c d all
this stuff and eventually I realized
that was empowering me to do a lot of
low value things I became efficient at
doing things that I shouldn't be doing
so I was seeing this public email
address of mine that when I was
oblivious to it I wasn't answering and
that was fine and but once I knew it was
there I'm like oh I have to answer this
I have to answer this I have to answer
this and so one important step for me
was realizing that only the A-list is
the stuff that's going to get done
because I'm a limited person with a
limited life so one I think it's maybe
you do need to do all that stuff or you
just need to be aware of it but some of
it is just I think there can be a danger
in someone who has a lot of support
resources uh where they can lose some of
the aspect of prioritization where you
just need to say this is the list that's
important other things I might not get
to but for someone like you I would I
would suggest something like not
starting your day with email or
messaging
because you know we were talking a
little bit before about this thing
called the zarnik effect which is this
idea that an unfinished task leaves like
a residue in your brain basically and
makes you it makes it harder for you to
fully transition to doing something
else and because I expect your various
inboxes will always be an unfinished
task right yeah if you start the day
with that no matter what you do the
residue is going to be there for what
you try to switch to next so I'm not
saying don't address your email but I
wouldn't start with I would the day
before what is the thing that if I get
done tomorrow it's going to be a good
day and start with that before you do
the things that might leave residue on
your brain and start multitasking how do
they know that's true have they done
studies on this aonic effect yeah yeah
absolutely I mean you can see you can
give people one you can do it in a
workplace environment where researchers
like Gloria Mark for example will be
tracking everything from someone's
Vision to what they're doing on their
computer to their heart rate variability
and seeing how long it takes them to get
back to a task um increased switching
when there's like like a residue in
their brain so their rate of switching
will go up uh you know some of their
indicators of stress response will go up
or in a cognitive task they'll perform
more poorly if there's something still
stuck in their brain so there's also
sort of laboratory experiments where you
give somebody something don't let them
finish it give them a cognitive task and
you see does it impair their performance
if they weren't allowed to finish the
thing that started
before I want to close off on that point
of just team culture then how to get a
team of people to do really exceptional
Innovative work and to fail faster is
there anything else that's sort of
pertinent to you and I'm saying this
purely selfishly because it's one of the
things I think a lot about even with
this podcast is how to get our teams
failing more often if that's even the
right thing to be aiming at the type of
experiments we should be running how we
should be running them anything else at
all yeah I mean I don't think I don't I
don't lionize failure for its own sake
right it's just I think it's inevitable
if you're experimenting enough that
you'll have some failure but I think one
useful thing to do like a guy I love
who's made a big impression on me named
ed Hoffman was used to be the chief
knowledge officer at Nasa that's like
after NASA had some disasters most every
they did was very successful but
obviously they had some high-profile
disasters he was brought in because they
were deemed not a learning organization
they weren't learning from lessons of
the past and he was brought in to help
create a knowledge system so that people
would learn from the lessons of the past
and one of the things he does in
organizations when he goes in because
now he consults is he goes around he
asks people what are you good at that
we're not
using right and people always have an
answer for that and that leads to well
what's some what's an experiment that we
can run to try to use that thing that
you're good at that we're not using so I
think that can be kind of a foundational
question to help people set up some of
those experiments but also a big impact
would be and this is a tough one you
going ahead and failing in an experiment
because that's going to set the agenda
right but you would actually have to
fail like this can't be you go out for a
jog and you trip on the curve or
something like you have to fail
something of
consequence uh and and then your
reaction to that can set a
tone um so that's on the the team level
so I just I want to really think about
how on an individual level I can become
a better
learner because one of the things I do
obviously for a living is I do this
podcast and I meet all these incredible
people and they say things to me that in
the moment change my life but I feel
like I forget them five minutes later
often some of them stick some of them
don't so I've always wondered how can I
become a better learner people come up
to me in the street and say you might
you must know so many things about so
many things and also my audience they
they tune in every week they listen to
these incredible people how can we
become better Learners what is it we can
do to ret retain information better and
then also bring it into practice in our
lives oh to retain inform okay for
retaining
information one repetition and
familiarity is important right so if
there's something that's really
important to you you should reread it
because the first time you go through if
you're hearing new things new terms
you're using your working memory just to
keep up basically so so to put this in
kind of a simple way like there's
research where you look at school kids
and if they're given um like an essay
about baseball say the kids that are
deemed really good readers and there are
kids who are deemed poor readers and the
the kids who will do the worst on
comprehension are the poor readers who
don't know anything about baseball but
the kids who know about baseball but are
not as good readers will still have
better comprehension than the kids who
are good readers but don't know anything
about baseball if they only get to go
through once because having some
knowledge helps you fit it into what's
called your semantic Network the
spiderweb of all the ideas in your brain
so one going back over things that can
be taking notes whatever it is but when
you learn something new try to fit it
into your semantic Network when you
learn something connect it back to
something you already know so like when
you have these conversations you
probably have a better tendency to
remember things where you say you know
that reminds me of some other guest that
either agrees or disagrees with
something that some other guest said and
you've attached it if you think of your
brain as like the spiderweb things are
attached by threads and if you vibrate
one thread it's more likely to shake
these other ideas into your brain so
when you're learning something new stop
and try to fit it into your existing
base of knowledge if you want to return
better can can I use that to sort of fit
it into an example so I'm thinking of
you you said something about um what is
something I don't use but I'm good at
would the listener that's listening to
this now in order to embed that think of
something that they are not using that
they're good at because then it kind of
brings it into their absolutely okay
absolutely use it as quickly as you can
again repetition but fit it into your
network of ideas like stop if you have
to because you know you can read a ton
but if you're not kind of and and I
think I think reading even things that
you don't retain still change your
sensibility at some level even if you
can't consciously pull up all of the
ideas and statistics and so on but for
things that you really want to be able
to
access connect it to other things that
you already know and someone's called
space repetition like if you can have a
way where you come back to it at
intervals that'll be much better so I
use
this um like readwise as a programming
I'm not like affiliated with them in any
way it's just a thing that I use where
if I have highlights in Kindle books or
ebooks it will feed me back my
highlights at intervals things that I
thought were important
regularly and that's taking advantage of
what's called spaced spaced repetition
where if you you want to actually leave
a space almost to the point of
forgetting something and then if it's
brought up again you're embedding it
better in long-term memory so this is
for for learning anything spaced
repetition language learning all this
kinds of stuff so you would think that
you just repeat a thing a million times
as soon as you have it and that's the
best way to Grapple on to it that's not
the most efficient use of time it's
actually to to space it out and quizzing
yourself is a great way to retain so
there's something called The Generation
effect which is if like if you have to
do highlighting versus uh flash cards
flash card quizzing is much better the
generation effect is being forced to
come up with an
answer primes even if it's wrong in fact
sometimes especially if it's wrong
primes your brain to then retain the
right answer it's actually something
called the hyper correction effect where
if you're really wrong about an answer
you're much more likely to remember the
right answer once it's given to you so
if you're looking up a piece of
information I suggest you guess what
it's going to be before you get the
answer it doesn't matter if you're right
or wrong might feel bad to be wrong but
it doesn't matter you'll better retain
it when you see the right answer but if
I'm wrong then I'm I guess I'm more
shocked so there's even more retention
of that new answer it's Salient I mean
this is this is what this is so this is
one of this kind of quizzing where it
feels hard because you should do it
before you know the answer is something
I wrote about in range called desirable
difficulties these are things that make
learning feel less fluent they are
unpleasant they may slow you down much
better for long-term retention
interesting so the more difficult the
learning the more you learn often I mean
but I guess there can be a case where
something so over your head that you're
not learning anything right but these
desirable difficulties are like one of
the most famous ones is called
interleaving or mixed
practice and this is if you're training
at something you you want to vary the
types of pro so let's give an example
DJing I'm I'm DJing at the moment okay
so I don't know all the skills that go
into DJing but if there's a way to do it
you should try to instead of doing the
same skill over and over and over again
well let me give you let me give you a
research example and then you can Port
it into DJing so in a recent study there
were dozens of uh middle school math
classrooms Middle School of sixth grade
that were assigned to different types of
math learning some of them randomly
assigned some of them got what's called
blocked practice that's you give like
problem type a AAA bbbb
Etc kids make progress fast they're
happy rate their teachers highly Etc
other other classrooms got what's called
interleaved or mixed practice where
instead of doing a followed by B it's
like you took all the problem types
threw them in a hat and Drew them out at
random progress is slower they might be
less happy because they don't feel like
they're getting it but instead of having
to just execute a procedure they're
having to match a strategy to a type of
problem and when the test came along
where everyone has to transfer to new
problems the inter Le group blew the
block Practice Group away it was like
the effect size was like taking a kid
from the 50th percentile and moving them
to the 80th just by arranging the
practice in a way that made it more
difficult what's going on there I think
I mean it seems to be and this this work
for physical learning as well I think
this is one of the reasons why this if
you want why fotsa is like why like 90%
of the best footballers grow up on fotsa
instead of like playing on full-size
pitch um is that it forces you to
instead of doing using procedures
knowledge which is you learn how to
execute this procedure over and over
you're doing making connections
knowledge which is identifying the
structure of a problem and foring out
how to match a strategy to it and so
you're building this like mental
template instead of just an ability to
execute this like flexible template that
can be applied going forward so you're
getting like a broader context of the
challenge versus a very narrow solution
perspective to how the challenge is
solved you're kind of understanding it
from a deeper level right from different
sides and and you're building this
generalizable model in your head of how
to approach it I mean my my favorite and
I'd be the only person to say this but
my favorite study that went into range
was this one the one that surprised me
the most I guess was this one that was
done at the United States Air Force
Academy which is this amazing place for
experiments because they get a thousand
new students every year those students
are randomized to math classes that all
have the same test and same grading and
everything then they are randomized the
next year and randomized again so you
can get these huge experiments
randomizing people to math classes and
they looked at 10,000 students and found
that the teachers who are the best at
getting students to do well on the test
in their own class in their own intro
class right teacher year one has
students who score highly on their test
those students go on to underperform in
the subwing classes and teachers whose
students sometimes rated them lowly
poorly because they thought it was hard
don't do as well on the test the first
year overperform in subsequent classes
and the difference is the way to get
someone to do really well in the test is
to teach this very narrow body of
knowledge that they'll have to execute
at the test the best way to prepare them
for math learning is to give them this
much broader connection of ideas that
will serve them later on so again this
is like to me the theme on every page of
range that would have made a crappy
subtitle is is sometimes what seems the
best in the short term will undermine
long-term
development the tricky thing with that
as you say is I I think about all the
areas and industries that I'm playing in
now so I go do I have the time to go
broad like if I'm learning to DJ at the
moment and at at the moment I'm just
trying to figure out what these [ __ ]
buttons do you know what I mean like
there's all these buttons I'm trying to
press them in the right order but you're
telling me that the thing that's better
for my long-term development might be
just to spend some time understanding
music and how it's made and how and
understanding like the the Beats of
music and make maybe spend some time
making music myself cuz right now I'm
just trying to smash two songs together
at the right time I think this gets at a
fundamental issue that that that maybe I
should have brought up earlier actually
so and it has to do with how you
characterize the different tasks that
you're trying to learn so there was a
period where I was really confused about
the research I was reading in in
building expertise because there were
two camps of
researchers both led by
eminent scientists one that would study
people doing sort of more 10,000 houry
kind of approach same thing over and
over and they would get better and this
other camp that would find if people did
that approach Not only would they not
get better they would often get more
confident but not better which was a bad
combination and sometimes it would get
even worse with really narrow
focus and I could not figure out how to
reconcile these things why are they
finding such different results again I'm
looking through for all these signs of
you know bad data not not finding it
and fortunately um I I gave a talk uh
where I was doing some of the critiquing
of the science underlying the 10,000
hours Rule and the Nobel La Daniel Conan
who wrote Thinking Fast and Slow was
there and someone asked he asked someone
for my email address and like months
later he followed up and invited me to
lunch and we go and have lunch and I'm
like I'm and he was he was interested in
my critique of some of the research and
I was saying I'm really confused you
know what are you working on now I'm
working through my confusion about this
why do people sometimes get better with
narrowly focused practice and why
sometimes don't they he said oh I've
done I've got the paper for you and
basically he referred me to this body of
research about kind versus wicked
learning environments these are terms
coined by a psychologist named Robin
Hogarth kind is like next steps and
goals are clear rules repeat uh it's
based on patterns repetitive patterns
rules never change give me an example
chess golf uh in chess the grandmaster's
advantage is largely based on knowledge
of recurring patterns so you better have
started studying those by age 12 or your
chance of reaching Grandmaster drops
from about one in4 to about 1 and
155 also why it's relatively so easy to
automate uh feedback is quick and
accurate uh not a lot of human behavior
involved work next year will look like
work last year on the other end of the
spectrum are wicked learning
environments where patterns don't just
repeat they might fool you rules may
change if there are any feedback could
be delayed or inaccurate um work next
year may not look like work last year
and so whether or not people get better
with this very Nar in a predictable way
with this very narrow practice depends a
lot on where on that kind to Wicked
Spectrum the the task happens to be
what's an example of a wicked lining
environment so let's say one one of the
examples uh that I loved that he turned
me to was uh in medicine because there's
a lot of areas in medicine where
something is done and the person making
the decision actually never learns of
the consequence of the decision um or
I'd say I would say like judges some
cases in like the criminal justice
system are set up to have maybe the
worst judgment they could have in some
ways because they almost never get
feedback they have like very little they
can do whatever they want and they
almost never get any any feedback but so
in in medicine there was this one
example in one of the studies that I
thought was just interesting and
illustrative where um this this
physician became famous for being able
to diagnose typhoid it's a New York
physician by feeling around palpating
people's tongues feeling around their
tongues with his hand and he could tell
you know we or two before they would
even get it this person's going to get
typhoid and as one of his colleagues
later observed he was a more prolific
spreader of typhoid than even Typhoid
Mary he was spreading it with his hands
by touching their tongue making the
prediction they would get typhoid which
would turn out to be correct so would
reinforce the lesson that he was really
good at prediction that's a really
wicked learning environment where the
feedback he's getting is reinforcing the
exact wrong lesson right but I would say
most of the things that most of us are
doing have feedback that tends to be
delayed
sometimes it's accurate and sometimes
it's not it's never as accurate as like
I hit that golf shot and I see if it
hooks or slices and then I changed the
the club face and and try it again and
so most of what most of us are involved
in increasingly right like work doesn't
next year doesn't look like work last
year for most of us anymore and in fact
Andre Ericson again the guy who did the
research underlying the 10,000 hour rule
when he eventually wrote a book he he he
made this caveat the book that said the
10,000 hours framework uh it applies to
things where we know exactly how to be
good and a coach can watch you do it and
correct everything that you do wrong so
it doesn't apply to most these other
things that most of us do like computer
programming and managing and
Entrepreneurship and all these other
pretty big loophole right in those areas
you want this much broader
toolbox I am I was really compelled by
something I saw you talking about which
was the story of Nintendo and why they
were so successful in the early days
because they have a a very Broad they
take wrote down the quote um a lateral
thinking with withered technology yeah
that started with a guy named gune yokoi
who
was scored poorly on electronics exams
in University and so he had to settle
for a low tier job as a machine
maintenance worker uh at a at a company
in Kyoto that made playing cards with
flowers on them whereas like his more
prestigious peers went to big companies
in Tokyo and the company was in huge
trouble uh it had to diversify if it was
going to survive survive and he knew
that he wasn't equipped to work on The
Cutting Edge but that there was all this
information available that maybe he
could just look for technology that's
already well understood and combine it
in ways that his more specialized peers
couldn't see and so he went and he took
some well-known technology from the
calculator industry some well-known
technology from the credit card industry
and combined them and made handheld
games and those were those were a hit
right that's what made Nintendo which
was a found in a wooden storefront in
19th century that's what turned it into
a to a toy and game Operation so he
moved from machine maintenance to
developing toys and games and his
magnopus was the Game Boy right where um
it was a technological joke in every way
it's like the processor was a decade old
the screen looks like you know rotting
alala or something it's like and it came
out at the same time as color
competitors and it blew them out of the
water because he knew what customers
cared about wasn't color as much as it
was durability affordability portability
battery life game selection by using
well-known technology people could make
games quickly and so he kind of set this
philosophy this lateral thinking with
withered technology that was his phrase
which means taking things that are
already well understood and moving them
somewhere where they're seen as
invention and that actually turns out to
be more the norm than the exception in
terms of technological innovation
particularly sort of later in the 20th
century forward before that it wasn't
necessarily the case much of the 20th
century actually the most impactful
patents if you look at patent research
were authored by teams and individuals
that Dove deeper and deeper into one
area of Technology as classified by the
US patent office but starting in this
sort of Information Age period um you
know particularly 80s and accelerating
forward suddenly it becomes a lot easier
to access information more broadly and
the most impactful patents started to be
authored by teams that include
individuals who've worked in a whole
number of different classes and they're
often merging things from different
areas uh for invention so how important
is focus in this this equation focusing
on one thing because you're talking for
much of this conversation about being
Broad and people will associate that
with being
unfocused yeah it's it's a right I think
the differen is between doing a bunch of
things sort of over your career over
your life or a span and doing attempting
to do a bunch of things at once we can't
technically do a bunch of things at once
like we we don't really multitask we
don't have the capacity to do it we're
actually just toggling between things
really quickly um and it's it's been
shocking to me to look at the research
how how big of an impairment that is for
people's performance particularly
because it takes time to switch and so
you're not again it it's it the the
scientist Gloria Mark who who I think
has been at the Forefront of study of
attention describes your brain as like a
whiteboard where you're doing something
and to do something else you have to
erase and that residue is left and it's
still going to be there when you move to
the new thing for a while and so you you
can't totally get into the next thing if
you're
interrupted um and and it impairs your
performance and it's stressful that's
been the most surprising part to me is
that when people are heart rate
variability is measured and some immune
parameters um that when people switch a
lot like if you just saw how many times
people switched their task you know
email to this other thing to some
notification over a day you'd have a
pretty good bet at predicting their
stress level and their performance level
over the day really yeah they've done
studies on this she has done that she's
hooked people up you know at Big
organizations too like inside Microsoft
and and places like that um where people
are wearing heart rate variability
monitors everything they're doing is
being tracked in the old days she was
like sitting behind people with a
stopwatch but technology obviously
progressed from then um and I think
that's a surprising aspect of it one of
the reasons that email makes people so
stressed is because it leads them to do
this like con I think in one of her
studies people were checking email
office workers were checking email and
average of 77 times a day that's a lot
of switching when you're switching in
and out of email and that just turns out
to a stressful thing because there
there's switching actually takes place
in two uh kind of phases where you the
first phase is is shutting down what you
are doing and the next phase is
activating the rules for the next task
so even if you kind of think you're
doing the same thing like you're working
on focused writing but you're also in a
slack Channel or something with a friend
or colleague those are both writing but
they're not the same style of writing
and so you're still having to activate
different cognitive rules and that that
comes with a switching cost so if I can
do something about it what should I do
to to make sure that I'm both happy um
more productive and healthier I would
again not start your day with something
that is inherently a multitask so if you
cannot start with email I would not
start with it because I view that at
least for me as something that will
start the day with multitasking and will
always feel unfinished like never feel
like it's finished um blockout times
where you designate on your calendar
that this is the only thing that you're
doing and leave some buffer for it
because there's something called the
planning fallacy we always overestimate
how much we can get done in a given
amount of time so I'd say fewer things
on your to-do list fewer things and on
the top maybe even just one thing that's
if I get this done this this was a good
productive day focus on that thing you
know pay yourself first do the important
thing first and really try to have some
when you're trying to be focused it's
important to mingle with people and
exchange ideas when that's what you want
to do but when you really have to be
focused to try to be in a place that's
as distraction free as possible and un
that includes even you know turning down
or off music even though it's Pleasant
and can help your affect and can
motivate but it also does have an
impairment on cognitive function because
you are paying attention to it to some
degree so don't listen to music while
I'm doing my work I mean that's hard to
say because I do it sometimes too
because it can have an energizing effect
or it can have a calming effect and
those are good but it does take up brain
space so you have to balance those how
do they know it takes up brain space you
can see how people perform on tasks when
the music is on and when the music is
off and it's it's a it's it's not as big
a deal if the music is very familiar
where you're kind of like it's not novel
so you're not attending to it the same
way but you know when I'm trying to be
super focused now I'll I'll turn the
music off but if I feel my sort of
motivation waning then maybe I'll tune
it back on but I want to use it
deliberately instead of just having it
in the background all the time because
it takes up a little space if it's and
if it's real noise like decb is a
logarithmic scale so small differences
are actually a big deal but if you go
from I think it's like maybe 70 to 80 DB
that's like the difference of going from
a like a washing machine to a vacuum
cleaner thereabouts in your background
noise that has a
enormous influence on your cognitive
ability and your productivity like like
a 15% decrement in your because of sound
yeah volume s because because you attend
to it you attend I mean our that's how
our brain
like focus is a challenge because this
is not the situation that we evolved in
right we evolved in a situation we're
paying attention to novel stimuli is a
really good thing and sometimes it's
still a very good
thing but it's at odds with a lot of
these modern things that we're trying to
do that are pretty new tasks for for
people what about instrumental music
because I tend to find that if I'm
listening to music that has lyrics in it
then I find it quite distracting when
I'm trying to do some work specifically
writing work or reading work so when I'm
researching guests for the podcast like
I was today in my hotel room I had a
song playing it was a rap song and um it
was I could I could feel my brain subtly
jumping from the screen that I was
reading to the rap lyrics to the screen
to the rap lyrics almost like just
oscillating between the two yeah and I
thought you got to turn that off cuz you
you're not reading I turned it off and I
really made progress but I but I
sometimes when I write like books and
stuff like that I put instrumentals on
and there's actually some apps in the
App Store now that are called like focus
music and they're lyric free music and
maybe like lot not lots of tonal changes
or not very complex maybe repeating I
mean I think that's going to be better
right the less novelty there is for you
to attend to that's better but think
it's also worth trying it with with
nothing and it depends how much you're
pushing yourself right like a tiny an
improvement of motivation or your affect
or feeling good might be worth it if
you're not all the way at the edge
pushing yourself right I don't know if
you've ever been on a there was there
was a time where I was trying to uh you
know do some foreign language lessons uh
that I was listening to while I would be
running and if I started hitting it hard
while I was running I couldn't even
remember what was said because it's you
switch into being really focused right
and so I think it it depends if you're
pushing yourself all the way you need
everything like there there are times
when I'm writing where I'm trying to
balance a lot of ideas in my head and I
almost feel like I'm overheating a
little bit yeah and if I'm in that phase
I I I want every Advantage I can have um
so push the distractions out but but
like there's also times to be to be
pleasant I think I think part of what's
sensible is working in intervals
planning to work in intervals Focus hard
for a little while do the myangelo then
switch to your your little mind where
you're we're doing something that's sort
of more fun and refreshing and maybe let
you incubate for a few minutes also take
a shower take a walk you know what about
notifications uh because you know I have
a lot of notifications I try to turn
them all off but they're still there in
the background and um you was talking
before we got going about this sort of
internal barometer of distraction that
we all have yeah yeah this
is so this is another aspect of of Dr
Mark's Work where she found that we have
this kind of internal mechanism if
you're getting distracted all the time
by notifications or whatever it is and
switching a lot if you say well now I
really have to hunker down I'm going to
get rid of the notifications or whatever
this stuff
is you will start self- interrupting to
maintain the Cadence of interruptions to
which you have become accustomed right
as if we have some internal like
distract ometer that is saying this is
your normal Cadence of interruption I'm
going to continue it by popping into
your brain oh here's this thing I need
to check oh here's this person I didn't
respond to you know you'll self-
interrupt that will go away but not
immediately so if you want to have a
lower Cadence of
interruption you need to like build by
getting rid of those external
interruptions know that you're going to
be self- interrupting for a while and
that'll go down more slowly so it has to
be more habit formation instead of just
today I shall be you know
uninterruptible okay so just want to
make sure I'm clear on this so say that
I get a notification every M every I get
10 notifications a minute and that's
what I'm used to right and then I decide
to turn my notifications off because I'm
used to 10 notifications per minute
you're saying that I will basically
think of 10 things per minute to
interrupt myself with yeah for a while
because that's what I'm used to so we
get comfortable with a certain level of
interruption at a certain Cadence and
even if you we remove the thing that's
interrupting us we'll just replace it
with something else that interrupts us
that amount at that Cadence yes so you
can see in studies where people are
taking cognitive tests if they have
their phone invisible even if it's off
the people who are more phone dependent
or sort of more used to interruptions
they'll have a a bigger impairment on
the test if the phone is even like
visible or around them because they'll
yeah and so it's you know what thing did
I forget to do and I think something
that can help with this is keep a pad
nearby and when that thing pops into
your head of the of what you forgot to
do or who you forgot to respond to write
it down so at least it's maybe that
helps it not stick in your mind where
you're trying to hold it in working
memory like cognitively Outsource it so
at least it's not sitting in there and I
think that can help the adjustment it
makes me think a lot about people that
struggle with sleep and just sleep
hygiene generally because if we're you
know if our phone is this thing of
interruption throughout the day then we
go to bed cuddling our phone which a lot
of people do um it's probably going to
have quite a big impact on our ability
to sleep yeah I mean I wonder if you
know I think there's some I think our
phones are really useful for certain
things and I think they are disruptive
for other things and I wonder if sleep
is one of the most important
because you don't really want to be like
leaving residue on your brain when
you're trying to go to sleep so I would
put the phone as far away as possible
when you're really trying to sleep and
not at the last minute either personally
which you do oh I leave it in a
different uh floor and airplane
mode have you always done that no when
did you start doing that well I
definitely do it when I'm in the process
of writing a book because then all these
things that I take for granted I'm like
now I really got to lock in and and be
better um
and I have a I have a five-year-old son
and I was more of a night person who
would work at night like I would do a
lot of my writing in the wi hours and
he's getting up early no matter what and
so I realized that I had to start being
a lot more efficient about some of my
schedule and started thinking a lot more
about having it be dark having it be
quiet having it be cool not having the
phone around um the last thing I'm
reading not being work rated otherwise
I'll be thinking about that and it'll
take me longer to go to sleep so I think
I became a lot better about it when I
when I had my son when my son came
around
it's funny you mentioned that you've got
a son because much of your work made me
think about what I'll do when I'm a
parent someday because you talk about
how these early years where if a child
focuses on being a specialist in
something particular or a generalist
they have worldly different outcomes and
I think as a big football fan and a big
Manchester United fan I've always
thought when my kid comes out of my wife
someday the first thing I'm going to get
him doing from the age of two months old
is kicking a football around because
then he'll be a Manchester United player
I'll get to go to the games I'll be in
the players box everything will be great
but your work seems to suggest that that
if I want him to become a Manchester
star maybe I shouldn't do that you know
I'm I'm not convinced that you are going
to be like a vicarious living kind of
dad maybe you'll turn out to be but I'm
not convinced um but let me tell you
this you just reminded me of an
interesting story where I was once
giving a talk about some of this
research in sports that shows that the
people who go on to the highest levels
again there are a ton of different uh
paths but they tend to follow the Roger
path not the tiger path so Tiger Woods
we know are very early specialization
famously Roger feder played whole bunch
of different sports uh didn't specialize
until later than some of his peers so
tiger was playing golf since he was he
was um at his father gave him a putter
when he was 10 months old uh when he was
two just as a toy he wasn't trying to
teach him to be a golfer he gave him a
toy as tiger himself said my father
never once to ask me to Play It Was
Always me asking him to to let me play
but that's ignored but at at two he was
on National Television you know you can
go on YouTube see him on national TV
showing off his swing and then by three
he's saying I'm going to be the world's
next great
golfer uh he's world famous as a
teenager by the age of 21 he's the
greatest golfer in the world right on
the other hand Roger played a variety of
different Sports basketball uh rugby
skateboarding soccer mother was a tennis
coach but declined to coach him because
he wouldn't return balls normally I
guess didn't like deliberate practice
kept doing let's let's see he did
handball uh he did some
rugby uh SK swimming wrestling when his
coaches wanted to move him up to play
with older boys he declined because he
just wanted to talk about pro wrestling
with his friends after practice and he
was not focused on being the next great
from an early age like tiger was in fact
when he became good enough to Warrant an
interview with his local newspaper the
reporter asked him what he'd buy with
his first hypothetical paycheck if he
ever became a pro and he said a Mercedes
his mom was a gas right didn't she
thought this was like go sure and so she
asks the reporter to hear the interview
recording turns out he just said M CDs
in Swiss German he just wanted more CDs
not a Mercedes right she was fine with
that so he went on to be every bit as
famous as Tiger Woods but even tennis
enthusiasts don't usually know anything
about his developmental story even
though it's the norm according to the
science we only tell we only tell the
tiger stories even though that that
one's the exception right and this is
why do we only tell the tiger story this
is part of the debate I've had with with
Malcolm Gladwell when we're running
together and he said well he told me
it's a human cat video you know you go
YouTube and see them at two years old
and you can't you got to share it I
think that's true but I think it's also
because it feels like this tidy
narrative that we can extrapolate to
anything we want to be good at in our
own lives the problem is as we talked
about golf is almost a uniquely horrible
model of almost everything else that
humans want to learn it's like the
epitome of a Kind learning environment
where the situation isn't isn't changing
you're not having to react so I think
it's a bad model and we we underplay
even for famous people the normal
developmental trajectory like I once
gave a talk to a small group of people
about some of this research in sports
showing that the typical path to
becoming Elite is with a sampling period
you learn a broad range of skills learn
about your own interests and abilities
delay specializing till later than peers
and Serena Williams sat in the second
row and I'm freaking out because you can
present all the data you want but if the
goat stands up and says you're an idiot
it's going to be a bad day right and I'm
like please don't let her ask a question
of course she raises her hand for the
first thing and she
goes I think my father was ahead of his
time he had me do uh ballet track and
field gymnastics Taekwondo uh learn to
throw a football for the overhand
snapping motion of a serve when there
was too much travel on like the you know
a youth tour he took me off so I could
focus on
school I'd been a senior writer at
Sports Illustrated and I had never heard
that like I assumed that she was this
kind of quintessential tiger story so I
think even those stories
when you look more more deeply uh
they're not as clearcut as we tend to
think well I I learned this myself when
I I didn't know this as as the rule but
I I found the story of lomachenko
because I I my friend of mine brought me
ringside to a fight in New York City and
I sat at the side of the Ring watching
this guy called Vil lenko that I'd never
seen in my life and I just couldn't
believe his footwork I'd never seen
anything like it in my life and then I
after the fight he won the fight of
course after the fight I looked into his
win record and it was something like
he'd won 300 of his amateur fights and
only ever lost one and then he' gone
back and beat the guy that he had lost
against um and in my mind I'd never seen
a boxer like it ever and then when I
read into your work you've mentioned him
as well as being one of these examples
that had a really varied early
upbringing didn't just focus on boxing
and that's ultimately what made his
skill stack so unusual and therefore
probably what made him the best his
story surprised even me where he took
several years off
to learn dance like d i mean I wouldn't
usually expect someone to take years off
it's just sort of do things in those
same years so that was amazing but his
father's called Anatoli and I think it
was his father that took him off into
Yeah dance classes or something and then
let him go back to boxing so for your
perspective child I wouldn't say like
don't expose them to soccer I think
because I think a lot of this is I think
there's there's a few things going there
are three buckets of things going on
with why this delayed specialization
Works in sports one is match quality
again the degree of fit between who you
are and what you do is that about
passion like what you're passionate
about ability and interests both and the
earlier you force selection the more
likely you put the wrong person in the
wrong spot so especially when selection
is way pre puberty okay you're probably
putting people in the wrong my kid might
want to be a boxer but I'm forcing him
to be a soccer player and he might miss
his potential with boxing premature
optimization yeah okay and and that's
also why we often see on junior teams
the relative age effect you know where
kids born earlier in their Birth Cohort
are way over represented on Junior and
youth national teams because when
they're eight or whatever and selected
if they're eight and 10 months versus
just turned eight that's a huge
difference of development in that age
and coaches mistake that biological
maturation for talent and so youth teams
are overloaded with kids born early in
their youth cohort and also in school
especially boys if they're younger in
their age C are much more likely to get
diagnosed with ahd but they're just
acting like the younger boys that they
are um okay and so and then that
disappears at the top level so it's not
it's not a good thing so there's the
relative age effect that's one or
premature you know choosing there's
injury which is we now see a lot of
adult style overuse injuries in kids and
the main predictor of that is nine
months a year of one sport and one sport
only so this isn't about less Sports
there seems to be a protective effect of
diversifying that is separate from just
doing less but actually you know
balancing yourself out in some way but
then there's a skill learning Advantage
where it's similar to language where
you know kids who grow up in a like with
multiple languages they will often show
a little delay in some of their language
skills but that delay is totally wiped
out in the long run and they have an
advantage for subsequently learning
other languages looks very similar in a
lot of these skills where if you're
diversifying there may be some delay but
you have an advantage for picking up
other skills later on and I don't think
this is about whether you're putting on
a basketball jersey or a football jersey
I think it's about variability in your
problem solving which is why I think so
many of the great footballers grew up on
fotsa where what's foots it's foot's
with a small ball soccer like game with
a small ball um I think I think the the
Brazilian name is like football day Salo
which it means like football in a room
small ball stays on the ground played in
a small space and kids will be playing
on you know cobblestones one day and
concrete the next day and and it's like
in a phone booth you know at hypers
speed and so there's no no one's
drifting down the field and everyone's
having to judge even if you don't have
the
ball pick up on body movements to try to
anticipate what's coming next and the
touches are about six times as frequent
uh as in as in full scale football and
so I think it engenders a lot more of
this sort of
variability um than does just sort of
the full scale game it makes your
reactions a lot faster as well you have
to make decisions faster with the ball
but under yeah it's funny when you're
talking about the tiger example and why
people um broadcast that story more than
they broadcast what you consider to be
the the average which is just people
having this varied upbringing and then
eventually finding one thing and taking
it forward it made me think that from my
experience people broadcast that they
basically broadcast anything that's the
exception because it's the exception so
the story of you know tiger WS as one
example but the on the other side with
someone like Anthony Joshua who started
boxing at I'm going to Butch of this but
let's say
24 I hear that all the time because it's
so unusual that he would become world
champion but start at 24 and the other
story that you hear all the time is like
the child prodigy story of like I don't
know Michael Jackson or Tiger Woods that
started when they were two you don't
hear about the person that starts at
like 15 right because it's not
interesting right because it's the norm
right or who ramps up in sort of a
normal way if they started because early
exposure is great yeah early exposure is
good but yeah and and it's a little it's
a little more equivocal right it's a
it's less of a prescription also like so
when when someone starts late we think
they defied the odds this is amazing and
when someone starts early that's a very
easy example to emulate and so I think a
lot of it is about that ease we
referenced the word match quality but
also we talked about passion a little
bit which kind of is one factor of match
quality a lot of people are trying to
figure out what they should be aiming at
in their life and they one of the most
popular questions I get from young
people is um how do I find my passion
how do I know what it is or at least
like what's the process def finding it
and it's they refer to it as if it's
this sort of Easter egg that one of them
and have to find it there's not one and
it's singular passion is a singular word
yeah no I don't I first of all I think
losing the idea that it is sing I mean
that's like the idea that there's like a
single soulmate out there for you you
know and I mean obviously I found my
single soulmate but for most of the rest
of
you uh there's a lot of things you might
be interested in in
fact the more things you try you'll
probably figure out the more things that
that you're interested in I was just I
was just like last week spending a
little time I was at the Pentagon
spending uh some time with a lieutenant
general who helped with a program they
call talent-based branching there where
they were losing a lot of their the
people they identified as The Highest
Potential were leaving the the Army and
they started this pilot program called
talent-based branching where instead of
saying here's your path you know here's
your your career path get uper out
they'd pair them with sort of a coach
like figure and they'd have them dabble
in like five different career paths a
little bit reflect on it with their
coach take some tests how this fits you
they have to keep track of the
Reflections in online portal again
self-regulatory learning got to do it
explicitly and in that process
90% of the army Cadets who went through
that process changed their career
preference 90 and this is just from a
little bit of dabbling because you don't
know what's out there you don't know
what the opportunities are and that and
you know it helped retention so people
were more likely to stay if they find
better fit this is I think actually one
of the really important things
about um and I'll I'll Circle back back
to Passion a little bit there but when
we think about grit right which everyone
thinks of is I think about this and the
reason that the Army made me think about
it my semantic network is that the most
famous grit research was done at West
Point at the United States military
academy by Angela Duckworth and her
colleagues and it found that the grit
survey the grit survey is a 12 question
survey half the points are awarded for
consistency of interests not changing
what you're interested in and half the
points for Persistence of effort or
perseverance turns out to be a good
predictor of who would get through this
very rigorous orientation at West Point
called
Beast also has some predictive value for
who would graduate so just to give you
some context for the listeners that from
the way that I understood this is that
Angela Duckworth did this study to
basically figure out what it was that
made people more likely to get through
this very rigorous selection process at
an army barracks or something and she
determined that this this grit as she
she called it was the thing that allowed
people to be successful so from that
study I've heard this all over the place
that actually what makes people
successful even in my team is great yeah
yeah and that survey turned out to be a
better predictor than were some
traditional metrics of who would get
through Beast like test scores and stuff
like that it also had some value for who
would get through the military academy
as did some of those traditional
metrics but tons of those like since
about the mid1 1990s those very gritty
cadets at West Point have been almost
half of them have been quitting almost
on the day that they allow they have a
5-year active duty service commitment
after they graduate and almost half of
them have been quitting and so the army
at a certain point said oh we've got a
millennial grit problem you know like
too much avocado toast not enough
mortgages or like
whatever and then some scientists who
also officers decided to study the
problem and they said we don't we
haven't gotten a grit problem overnight
we've got a match quality problem right
when the Army looked like the rest of
the economy where it was more upper out
and you fac the same kind of problems
year-over-year and you could have a
period of training followed by a period
of working doing similar things lateral
Mobility was limited
that was fine it just mimicked the rest
of the economy then you move into this
whatever you want to call it knowledge
creativity information economy and
people who can engage in Creative
problem solving and knowledge creation
have tremendous lad Mobility they have
lots of opportunities these young people
are learning things about themselves in
the early 20s and they have no agency
over career switching to match it so
they were just quitting right when the
Army first didn't realize this so they
threw retention bonuses at
people and the ones were going to stay
took it ones are goingon to leave left
anyway half billion dollars taxpayer
money didn't didn't uh fix the problem
but what I think it shows is that how
limited your insight into what you might
want to do is based on the things that
you've tried again Herman bar as we
learn who we are in practice not in
theory and so I think the biggest
problem for young people is if they're
sitting around introspecting to try to
figure out what their passion is go and
try something it's not it's almost
certainly not going to be the first
thing it may be you may get lucky but
it's probably not going to be the first
thing so you should get going on that
experiment process and start building a
model of the world so that you can
understand what your options are cuz I
also think the issue with passion and
happiness is again like I was talking
about I think it was can't remember
everything that was before the recording
started and after um but like when I
used to run the 800 meters or now when I
write books if you ask me to any given
moment am I enjoying this am I happy
about it you know am I passionate about
some's like no I want to throw my
computer out the window are you crazy
but it's so engaging it's so compelling
and it pushes me in a way to learn that
I can't do just on my free time and so I
don't think we have to think about just
passion find something that is so
incredibly engaging to you uh and then
go from
there and engaging really is how do you
know that it's engage it's when you sort
of FL drop into that flow state where
nothing else seems to matter or flow I
mean flow is a tricky one because it's a
lot easier it it shows up a lot more in
people that are like surfing or painting
than it does in some kinds of knowledge
work but I think it when you when you
get really engaged in something you a
curiosity about how you can get better
at it what else you can learn next so I
think it it stimulates this kind of
curiosity That You Don't See in people
when they're just in something where
they're kind of going through the
motions so you you start to understand
like when I I remember when my my then
girlfriend now wife um it was important
to me you know for health that like both
of us be lifelong exercisers for example
and the first time we we moved in
together and I'm saying like all right
we got to
identify uh something that works for you
and I take her to a gym and drop her off
and not realizing I have you know
Decades
of learning how to do stuff in a gym
that I take for
granted and then I realiz okay I need to
sort of walk this walk with her and so
we would try different things like
running she wasn't as into that so then
you know try some other thing etc etc
and finally she found one kind of class
and she comes home this day we did this
and then we did this it was so hard let
me show you this other thing we did I'm
like you found your thing and the one
problem was then when we were looking at
moving States we had to be within 15
minutes of that kind of class walking
distance for any house that we were
going to buy but it's like you can see
this curiosity develop uh when someone
hits something it's so engaging that
they want to understand how to be better
they want to talk to other people doing
it they get so curious about it but you
have to experiment you have to
experiment I wish there were a way out
of that I wish you could say this is the
thing that's going to work for you may
maybe someday with AI I maybe but highly
unlikely highly unlikely um and and AI
just like changes the field that you're
playing in right and so I think
experimentation I think it's going to be
even more important as people can't
expect to be doing the same thing their
whole careers anymore I mean they're
threads that they can expect to to carry
through but not the same exact thing
when I saw your video called why
Divergent thinkers beat Geniuses in the
real world I thought you were going to
talk about neurod Divergence in the
video so someone that was you know
diagnosed with ADHD maybe when I was
about 30 years old I thought oh he's
going to explain why neurod Divergence
things like ADHD and autism result in um
better outcomes in the real world has
your work ever had any crossovers with
NE Divergence not a lot but I mean I
have read some of that work and I do
think something that's really important
is the more different types of thinking
that we can like get into a stew the
better off I think I think we all are I
mean there are reasons
why um ADHD like there's there's some
it's not it's not a big body of work but
I think it's relevant where you can look
at nomadic populations that then settled
and you can see certain genes that are
associated with and these are these are
small effects
um but you can see certain genes that
are associated with uh like novelty
seeking with with ADHD um will
apparently start to be like selected out
once they settle and it's more common
when they're nomadic and what that
suggest to me is that these are things
this attentiveness to lots of different
stimuli that are really important have
been important for us ancestrally and
are still important and so they're still
here they may be maladaptive if you're
telling someone they have to sit still
in a classroom for 10 hours a day which
I think is a difficult environment for
anyone to adjust to but I think to some
extent and I think this has happened
sometimes in in some companies um that
look for opportunities for people with
Autism where you say okay where is this
adaptive where is this type of thinking
adaptive instead of maladaptive so
useful instead of unproductive and I
think if we're not doing that then
you're missing opportunities to really
use people who think differently from
you yeah I mean it's interesting because
your work does whether it is endeavoring
to or not it really does make a great
case for diversity in the workplace yeah
yeah yeah uh you want to do a quiz sure
pretend you're a doctor okay and I'm
your put my white coat in my head with a
little stethoscope around my neck yeah
okay because that's that's what all
doctors look like um and and I'm your
patient okay and I've got a malignant
stomach tumor and there's a new type of
Ray or Focus radiation that can destroy
the tumor if it's at sufficient
intensity the problem is at that
intensity it will also destroy healthy
tissue in my stomach so how can you save
me okay while you're thinking of that
tell you a story there was once this
General had to capture a fortress to to
liberate a country from a brutal
dictator and he had plenty enough troops
to do it and there were roads radiating
out like wheel spokes from The Fortress
but they were strewn with landmines so
if he marched all his troops down any
one road he'd suffer a lot of casualty
so he had the idea let's split up into
single file lines go to the different
spok likee paths and we'll synchronize
our watches and they converge there at
the same time and they Liberate the
Fortress okay or they capture the
Fortress Liberate the country One More
Story Once a fire in a small town in
danger of spreading to neighboring
structures fortunately was near Lake so
neighbors are coming and they're filling
pales and bailing water on it not
working fire chief shows up she says
stop what you're doing everyone get in a
circle fill up your buckets get in a
circle around the fire on the count of
three one two three dampens the fire and
good they put it out fire chief gets a
raise okay have you can you save me now
doesn't matter you should this is I'm
giving you a very quick version but the
answer is you can arrange multiple low
intensity Rays around me so they
converge at the focal point so they go
through my torso without damaging me
because they're low intensity but they
converge at the right spot making high
intensity and this is a very truncated
version don't like if you were getting
the real test you would have had a lot
more time and still most people don't
solve it so don't worry it's called the
dunker radiation problem this is a very
truncated version of a large body of
research that shows that when you're
facing a novel problem the number of
solutions and the chance of coming up
with a good solution are predicted by
the number and breadth of
analogies that your group can come up
with and what predicts that is the
breadth of experience of the people in
the group so if you're facing a novel
problem and you have only people with
the same expertise it's not much better
than having one brain okay what you want
to do is come up with what's called a
reference class where you sit down you
come up with as many structurally
similar analogies from all sorts of
different areas like this sounds kind of
like this and this other thing and they
don't have to be as far flowing as what
I just did but in in the studies where
people have more time with each
successive story you tell them more
people will start solving the original
one even though they don't know that
they're related and so you want to get
people together who are really
different come up with a whole bunch of
uh of these like this kind of feels like
this look for which ones are
structurally similar and you'll start
thinking of possible solutions yeah I
mean that's just such a brilliant
brilliant case for diversity in thinking
and experience when you're building a
team when you're co-founding a team when
you're coming coming at a problem and I
was thinking actually yesterday about um
microphones so this is the first podcast
we've ever recorded if people watching
they might notice this all of a sudden
it' be interesting to know if you notice
this before I mentioned it but there's
no microphone here and this is the first
podcast we've ever recorded where there
isn't a microphone here and I was
thinking as you were speaking then about
how when we had the debate about how to
solve this problem with and the problem
that we were trying to solve for is that
there's guest bang on the table and it
comes through the microphone people send
me messages on LinkedIn saying hey it's
so annoying that people bang and then
whatever um so the microphones are now
above us and coming down and as we sat
around the three of us yesterday it's
kind of a little analogy for what you
what you're describing you've got will
who's got his experience in audio you've
got Jack who's got his experience and
then you've got me who's got basically
no experience but I do do a TV show
called Dragon's Den where we wear a
different type of microphone and we were
all chucking in our solutions to this
problem based on our own perspectives of
audio recording so um we Jack's solution
one but my solution before that was
while on drag and then we have one glue
to our chest so why can't we just glue
it to the guest's chest and it was
interesting watching us all it iterate
through these different solutions that
come from different places um doing this
kind of cost benefit analysis on each of
the solutions obviously one of the
problems with my solution is guests will
touch their chest right and then that'll
[ __ ] that up so yeah yeah yeah they
touch so and then also we have to grope
them when they arrive which we also we
didn't like but it's the same thing and
you need you need a really diverse set
of experiences to hone in on the winning
solution um but in most Pursuits what we
do is we collect people who have done it
before collect people who've done it
before and and that it's not that you
don't want those people you just don't
want only those people yeah and and the
tendency also is often to use the first
analogy that comes up you don't want to
do that either you want to like have a
menu of possible solutions to to look at
because like there's this thing called
the creative Cliff illusion people think
their most their best ideas and most
creative ideas will come either quickly
or not at all and in fact they tend to
come later as you're trying to come up
with ideas interesting yeah so but our
inclination is that it's like this flash
of lightning and either it comes or it
doesn't [ __ ] that's made me question a
lot of things I do because sometimes I
get an idea I write it down and I share
it straight away oh there's nothing
wrong with sharing the idea right but if
you're if you're like trying to solve a
real problem I wouldn't stop at your
first idea throw it out there for
discussion and then allow it to and then
keep yeah stay open to it and and don't
assume that you know if something didn't
come to you with like a flash of insight
that you should just stop thinking
you're writing a book about constraints
yeah and you you know I'm not going to
give away all all of the things in the
book because you know you to sell it
especially since like half of it isn't
written so it's I can't even give away
half but I found this story about Apple
really important because it's helped me
think about some of the things I'm doing
in business but also in my life are you
able to share that story of of Apple
what you've discovered in terms of focus
and constraints sure not not not Apple
so much as as um another company uh
called General magic that was uh a lot
of the team that designed the original
Mac came to this company and it was like
the the the hottest thing in Silicon
Valley and they were going to build um
uh the iPhone they had the idea they had
the vision like the drawings they have
look like the iPhone they had the team
from the Mac they had this incredible
Talent uh they went public in a
so-called concept IPO they didn't have a
product yet but the idea was so hot that
they were taken public uh and long story
short it turned into a disaster because
they had no boundaries they had as much
money as they wanted they didn't have
any customer in mind um they uh anything
they thought was cool they built it and
so the project just grew and grew and
grew and grew and never found the focus
to to kind of turn into anything usable
but a lot of the alumni that came out of
there realized that that was a problem
and so going forward they would have
lessons like you're better off
envisioning a customer even if it's the
wrong person than none at all and just
building something that's cool because
even if it's wrong you can learn that
you were wrong by trying something
whereas if you don't have one you don't
even have sort of a feedback mechanism
for Learning and so it was spending some
time with with some of those alumni um
got me really interested in in
constraints and uh I'm still putting
together some of that some of that
writing so I don't know that I can do it
justice at the depth um that I could if
I'd already written it but it's
interesting with the words you use
because there appears to be a bit of
kind of like a paradox or contradiction
in this idea of like breadth and then
constraints and focus and it's this
interest you know I mean that's part of
the reason I got interested in it
because a question after range that
people had for me was you know how do
you know when to focus right like so it
really very much came out of this
question because eventually you get this
broad toolbox you have to focus it into
achievement at some point right you
don't want to just pinball forever which
is what you said as your like hot
streaks hot streaks right you want to
folus into a hot streak eventually and
it also came out of this aspect of me
search you know research is research um
where my own biggest challenge the
bigger my projects are and the you know
books being big projects for me the
harder it is for me to draw the
boundaries of what is in Bound because
the the topics I take on in my my books
are by definition can't be perfectly
answered balance of Nature and nurture
and developing a skill how broad or
specialized to be and when and so I've
had so much trouble saying this is the
boundary for what fits in here and so I
myself wanted to get better at at
learning how to use constraints uh in in
my own work so for the first time with
this book for the first time I said
because I I for both of my previous
books I've written like 15% the length
of a book and then had to cut back
because I just shove in everything I
think is interesting this time I said
I'm going to have an architect ahead of
time forc myself to adhere to that and
one of the first things I noticed was
it's I I usually don't write the
chapters in order and I I started with
this book with my normal process of I'm
going to jump in with chapter five
because I just did the research and I
realized because I was starting to see
like this is going to break some of the
structure up and
downstream I'm leaving all these blanks
because I don't know what I will have
already said so I actually have to go
back and start an order so now you know
after being in writing for whatever like
almost 20
years suddenly I have a totally new work
process and I'm writing an order for the
first time which is interesting and and
a bit scary but I'm writing at length
too I'm actually going to turn in a book
at the length of a book for the first
time are you not um at all concerned
about AI as a writer because you know
these models are getting smarter and
smarter every single week and just
generally how do you look at the the
sort of future of work in a world of AI
it feels like it's going to be such a
disruptive force in you know oh I think
it is career planning and like what do I
do with my future I mean it might touch
everything but one I love playing with
it so I'm I have these competing forces
of like maybe it'll um you know I'm a
very curious person and so if I'm I I I
play with probably about four different
AI programs a day but the the one that's
the most useful to me is called site.
again is it I don't have like any
affiliation with any of these things I'm
just a subscriber s. where I can put in
a scientific paper and it'll make like a
app showing all the other papers that
cite it and it'll try to automatically
sort them into those that agree and
disagree and it really helpfully will
show the snippet of how that the target
paper was cited in these other ones that
I used to have to spend like go sit in a
research library and be doing that by
like scanning down a paper to find that
so it's like a day now is an hour so and
I love that like if that means my books
don't sell as well but I get to learn 10
times as science that's a trade-off I'm
definitely willing to make personally
I'm not saying everyone should be
willing to make that but I'm willing to
make that tradeoff but in terms of work
generally being
disrupted yeah I mean I think the the
model that I think of for sort of
there's no singular model but for how
technological
innovation has disrupted work in the
past a model that I like that I can tell
sort of
quickly is the introduction of the ATM
in in the United States happened around
1970 uh so cash machine mhm um and I
went back and looked at news coverage
and it says like every uh you know
300,000 bank tellers are going to go out
of business overnight and instead what
happened over the next 40 years as there
were more ATMs there were more bank
tellers not fewer because ATMs made
branches Bank branches cheaper to
operate so there are fewer uh branches
overall a fewer tellers per Branch but
more branches overall
sorry um but it fundamentally changed
the job from someone who's doing these
repetitive transactions repetitive cash
transaction to someone who's like a
marketing professional and a customer
service representative and uh you know
maybe a financial adviser it shifted
them to these
strategic goals where it's much broader
mix of strategic skills so if we can
Outsource some of that Kinder learning
environment repetitive stuff to shift
humans to being more strategic I think
that's like a good thing right we think
about I I know Radiologists have been
some of the people deal with medical
imaging have been some of the people who
have often in these reports by banks
that say who's going to be replaced
they're often high on the list because
they say the technology can you know
read these pictures very easily radio
just looks at a scan and tells you if
you've got a cancer or something yeah
but first of all I have yet to hear the
problem of like wow too many people are
having too easy access to Radiology
right like I think we want more of this
service but I think most doctors are not
doing doctor house you know most of the
stuff they're seeing is something
they've seen a million times and I think
a really important role for them is
strategic of well what should this mean
to the person how should I deal with
them and what what's reasonable to
implement in their life and what's
feasible for them to do to make a change
and so I think it'd be great if we could
Shi I don't think it will replace those
doctors I think it might shift them to a
more strategic role where they don't
have to spend time doing the sort of
more tactical stuff and can do the more
strategic stuff so that's that's been e
even in even in chess you know like
when well like when when IBM's deep blue
beat Gary casprov in chess in 1997 and
he noticed that it beat Gary casprov he
was so much better when he was he was
the best in the world at the time now
like a free app on your phone would be
Gary casprov but and he noticed the
computer was so much better at tactics
these are these like small patterns of
moves that he had spent his life
memorizing but he noticed it wasn't as
good at strategy which is how to arrange
the battles to wage the war so he
promoted what he called freestyle chess
tournaments where humans and computers
could play in any combination and the
winners were neither supercomputers nor
Grandmasters nor grandm with
supercomputers two amateur chess players
with three laptops they knew something
about Chess they knew something about
algorithmic search and they could coach
the computers where to look like they
couldn't even analyze their own games in
like the winners press conference at a
deep level because they didn't know
enough about chest but I think the
lesson there is it when the Tactical
part was outsourced it shifted it first
of all changed the people who were the
best at the task like this and it
shifted the humans to the more strategic
level and so I think that's what we need
to be ready to think about what can we
hand off so that we shift to a more
strategic level how might you be wrong
maybe the Strategic level maybe these
tools will be better at the Strategic
level than we would ever be I still
think there'll be a role for us in
determining what their goals should be
and that's a whole other level of
strategy is like what kind of world do
we want to live in I don't think in the
near term that we're going to be taking
our cues from them in that role but I
think even the people like last year I
was sitting around a campfire with one
guy who's running a generative AI
company and another guy who was like his
first investor
and who himself had worked in AI like
you know they were both uh
technologically Adept incentives
aligned and one guy was saying we'll
have artificial general intelligence
within three years for sure and the
other guy was saying I think this is a
glorified toy I still use Google more
and these were two people with similar
expertise with incentives aligned which
to me suggests the degree to which even
the people working on this stuff don't
totally understand what its capabilities
are or what it's doing um and so I think
there's a lot that's I think there's a
lot that's unknown someone made the case
to me that they said uh think about it
like this Steve you've got this Steve
here say my IQ is 100 and there's
another Steve through that war whose IQ
is a thousand what would you give me to
do as a task versus what would you give
him to do as a task who would you want
to drive your kids to school who would
you want to I don't know answer you're
saying we give everything to that person
well this is the analogy he gave me he
was like what are you left with okay
even even if it comes to that point even
if it comes to that point there'll still
be the issue of comparative Advantage
which is that these these models are
incredibly energy intensive right and so
you'd want to delegate energy to them
for the things that you really want them
to do so even if they are do end up
better than us at everything because
energy is not unlimited there will still
be things that are more valuable to have
us doing than to have them doing right
even like I mean that's the case all the
you may be better at certain things in
your business but you're not doing them
because it's a comparative advantage for
you to do this instead of those other
things so I think even if they do get to
the point where they're better than us
at everything there's still roles for
humans but incredible amount of
disruption right like what really
worries
me I mean I was reading
about last year about technological
innovation in history you know and we
have like to put it in a very coarse
nutshell it's like for 300,000 years we
lived like squirrels and then for 10,000
years we lived like farmers and then 250
years it's like everything changed every
generation like
crazy um and that's been hard to to
adapt
to um and I think
you know I thought that the Industrial
Revolution this you know which pulled
ultimately led to pulling billions of
people out of poverty you know changed
everything I thought that because
productivity increased so much that
wages and things would have increased
right along with them but it turns out
that there's pretty good evidence that
there was actually a gap of probably
about 40 years between the increase of
productivity and the increase of
Wages that's not good like a 40-year gap
between a huge technological disruption
and like Shar shared
Prosperity that's not something I think
we can really afford and and what sort
of helps solve the problem is that when
lots of people got urbanized for the
Industrial Revolution and looked around
and said hey you have the same problem
that I have we need to band together for
Collective action I think the challenge
now is we're like an invisible Factory
so it's it's harder to get people to
collectively act because we're not
sitting next to each other dealing with
this problem but I think we need to
start thinking as a group
of this technology is
cool but identifying problems that we
want it to work on not just building it
out be for the sake of Jus it's cool
what kind of world do we want to live in
I think we need to be asking those
questions I think it's quite unlikely
that we'll be intentional with it in the
way that you're hoping it'd be
unfortunate I mean I think a good sign
though I think is that even
the kind of technologists who I think
are usually prone to Hyperbole and
saying like this will be the greatest
thing even when it's obviously not going
to be are sounding some notes of caution
with this one in an early stage and so I
think that's a tuned other people to
some of those notes of caution I don't
think that gets us out of the woods by
any stretch the notes of caution worry
me oh well that's the point they should
worry I think if we if if we were where
we are and not worried right now I think
that would be a lot worse what is the
most important idea in your work that we
haven't discussed in your opinion in the
sports Gene I think the most important
idea um that we haven't discussed is
that uh Talent at
Baseline like the talent you if you take
a test in something your let's say you
haven't trained in that thing that we'll
call that your talent
Baseline is sometimes correlated with
your ability to improve from training so
people training looks just like medicine
because of differences between us some
medicine might work for you in a way
that it doesn't for me training is
similar two people will get different
results from the same exact training and
sometimes how good you are to start is
predictive of how rapidly you'll improve
but very often it is
not and that's a huge deal because we
usually judge people's potential based
on what we see right now or what we see
at Baseline before they've really had a
chance to train what I think the science
shows is that this Talent of
trainability is even more important than
Talent at at Baseline and so if you're
trying to evaluate people before they've
really had a chance to find a training
that fits for them again it's a messy
answer because it means people have to
experiment with the kind of training
that works for them and that
trainability is the most important kind
of talent and I think that's a different
picture of talent okay this is quite
this is very important because it
immediately as a employer I thought when
I'm hiring
people I you know if I'm hiring a
producer for one of our podcasts
whatever I shouldn't be focusing so much
on if I'm was planning for them to work
with for me and with me for 10 years I
should be thinking about their
trainability yeah I was going to say it
depends how quickly you need them to get
going right if you need them if you need
to know what they know today and they
need to be using that thing tomorrow
yeah that's one thing um but if if it's
about how good they're gonna get in the
long run you just shouldn't assume that
what you're seeing today predicts like
their ability to improve at a certain
can you measure someone's train ABY I
mean you can measure it very easily and
things like their aerobic capacity you
know the amount of oxygen that they can
uh move through their body I mean some
of the initial studies of this were done
in in scenarios like that where you had
everyone doing the exact same training
and you were literally measuring
physiological parameters you can do it
in other types of cognitive testing and
ability testing if you're looking for a
sort of specific task that's a little
harder if you're looking for a task
that's customized to something in your
business I think that's more difficult
it's going to be a little more
subjective I guess you could you can
kind of look at other areas of their
life I guess in the professional context
to see how quickly they developed one of
the things I look at when people apply
for jobs to work in one of my businesses
is I look at their LinkedIn resume but
specifically how quickly they got
promoted and moved through departments
because that's kind of an indicator it's
obviously not the most important thing
but you'll go you click on someone's
LinkedIn and you'll see they joined as
an intern and then a year later they
were a manager of the team then a year
later they were the like director of the
team then a year later they moved up to
a different department a year later they
became the global head and I'm like oh
my God that this person really moves
through the system well um and that is
an indicator of a few things they get on
with people because someone's pulling
them up and saying that person go up
their team are also um basically voting
that they should be the manager um they
have Proficiency in in learning rapidly
because especially if they jump between
sort of departments from HR to um
culture whatever um and I I always think
that makes them a bit more adaptable and
teachable if they've shown that track
record of
changing profession and moving up the
organization quickly interesting because
that feels a little related to I think
the an important idea that we didn't
talk about from range has to do with
so-called serial innovators these are
people who make repeated creative
contributions to their organizations no
matter where they are even when they're
changing like I said changing places and
these people like a woman named Abby
Griffin a professor and her colleagues
who studied these people some of the
descriptions of who they are uh these
are like literal phrases from her work
they are systems thinkers they read more
and more widely than their peers they
have a need to learn outside their
domain they have a need to communicate
with people with expertise outside of
their own area they appear to flit among
ideas which doesn't usually sound like a
compliment um they repurpose things are
already available in new ways all these
sorts of things and you can feel in her
writing almost she's almost like talking
to HR people saying just so you know
when you define a role too narrowly
you're making sure you select these
people out or force them to go somewhere
else to try to cultivate that kind of
breath and I don't think you can create
these people from Whole cloth but I
think you can absolutely stifle them by
not allowing them to do that kind of
moving around internally and so I think
when you're looking at
hiring I think the organizations that
I've been around at least that disrupt
themselves continually instead of
waiting to get disrupted Reserve at
least some of their hiring for instead
of saying here's a square peg for a
square hole that we need tomorrow they
say what is something we want that we
would have trouble teaching
let's go get someone with that and we
can coach them up on the stuff we're
good at so
like an extreme example of this was this
investment firm in Scotland I spent some
time with bayy gford this like
incredibly uh successful firm and I
think they this is Extreme but someone
there told me like they won't hire
anybody with an MBA I think that's I
don't think you should rule out things
like that but anyway but what they would
go is they'd say we want someone who has
experience in this or that or this kind
of thinking let's go get them because we
can't teach that thing and then we can
coach them up on finance it's going to
take them an extra few months to get
going because we're gonna have to teach
them but the stuff that why should we
hire for exactly the stuff that we can
most easily teach let's hire for the
stuff we want but that we would have
trouble teaching and then we can teach
them on it and I think the places that
are looking to disrupt themselves keep
sort of an eye open for that kind of
thing not for every hire but for some I
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me and let me know what you think one of
the things I really love about your work
is you always cite different studies and
they're particularly fascinating I wrote
down tons of different studies from
different points that you've made made
today but are there is there a favorite
study that you that surprised you the
most or shifted your your sort of
Paradigm the most some of the the
research about forecasting totally
shocked me so the most famous work ever
done on on forecasting making
predictions was a
20-year uh program of research that had
people making predictions about
geopolitical you know social
technological events and they had to get
they got 83,000 probability predictions
because people had to make specific
probability predictions of the
likelihood of an event by a specific
deadline so like 20 20% probability of
this happening by this time correct like
that there's going to be and it would be
very specific it would be a 20% chance
that within the next 12 months there
will be a military confrontation that
causes at least five casualties in the
South China Sea like it had to be very
specific so that they could say if
someone was right or wrong and they
needed so many because they had to
differentiate luck from uh good luck and
bad luck from skill and the worst
forecasters turn turned out to be like
the most narrowly specialized people who
were it do not that these people are not
important for generating knowledge but
who came to see the whole world through
sort of one lens or mental model and
would they had spent their whole careers
kind of studying one problem and and
would see the whole world around that
and they would wrap everything into that
story basically so in in this this
research they were called The Hedgehogs
who knew one big thing whereas the good
forecasters were the foxes who knew many
little things and sometimes
they had an area of expertise and
sometimes they didn't but more important
than what they thought was how they
thought they would collect different
perspectives they use social media
anything they had to take their own
hypothesis and tell get other people to
falsify it for them uh and those people
turned out to be the the best
forecasters and when they were put
together in groups with one another they
became even better because they had this
approach of of sort of borrowing from
the scientific method to test their own
ideas basically
and it just surprised me that these sort
of random people in many cases in a
tournament where they were pitted
against the intelligence community in
the United States that had access to
classified information that they did not
they beat them
handily and I just wouldn't have
believed that unless I unless I saw it
that that body of research about
forecasting the ability to see around
the corner a a big aspect of what made
people good at it was actually the
researcher who led this work described
those people as having dragonfly eyes
dragonfly's eyes are made of thousands
of different lenses each one of which
takes a separate picture and they are
synthesized in the dragonfly's brain and
so these people are gathering all these
different perspectives and they can seem
sort of confused and equivocal so they
might not make for good TV guests they
actually found in the research because
they don't go on and say this is how it
is like the housing crash is coming and
bl blah you know they're more
circumspect in some ways they might not
be as good TV guest but they're very
good forecasters it just made me think
that on a personal level I need to keep
pushing myself out outside of my zone of
comfort more that's one of the big
things I took away from the book range
but also just much of your work is it's
easy to get complacent in What I Know
Who I Am My identity what I do and in
fact that's probably the biggest risk to
my future success but also probably to
my fulfillment as well and it it goes
against our natural inclination to push
into uh unknown territory yeah because
the older we get the more like you know
they say you can't teach an old dog new
tricks I think it's more like the old
dog doesn't really want to know learn
new Tri tricks you know can't see the
point in learning a new trick and to
that point of the of the so-called Big
Five personality traits in Psychology
one of them is called openness to
experience which is the most predictive
of creativity and in in middle age it
reliably goes down goes down but
actually a study I loved in the book
found that if you force older people to
do something new can be some sodoku or
something even if they don't get good at
that thing if it's new to them it will
improve their openness to experience so
you can actually stem the decline of
openness to experience it's not
inevitable just by forcing yourself to
do new stuff that you're not competent
at is like great for brain health uh it
makes your life feel longer because our
memory Works in sort of chapters where
when you try new stuff it's like a new
chapter so it'll make your life feel
like it's not passing as quickly and it
keeps your openness to experience from
declining and so just like picking
something to do that's new even if
you're not planning on getting really
good at it I think is important it's
funny I said that thing a second ago
about um when I look at someone's
LinkedIn and then I looked down and I
found this little research um piece that
LinkedIn did that I'd pulled out that
said one of the best predictors of who
um would become an executive in a
company yeah was the number of different
job functions that individual had worked
across an industry so that's research
done by LinkedIn wasn't it yeah wasited
that was on about a half million members
yeah and and the interesting thing about
that was I when I was in contact with
LinkedIn uh talking about that and
trying to get some of that
data I said I kind of feel like your
guy's product might militate against
people doing this because you're saying
this is this is who's doing the best but
they might want a much cleaner kind of
linear trajectory yeah um so maybe you
should build another product where they
can build a narrative into it and say
Here's why I switched here's what I
learned and what so what's the actual
can you recap to me what the actual
finding was I mean that was that was
pretty much it that across a half
million members that the strongest
predictor of who was going to go on to
become a future executive um was uh the
number of different job functions that
they' worked across in industry in a
specific industry in Industry so not
changing Industries not changing
Industries although changing Industries
there was a bunch of lower level stuff
and changing Industries was useful at
times also but to be an executive in a
particular industry lots of job
functions across that across an industry
and does that mean different departments
within that industry they characterize
job functions you have to be doing
something fundamentally different okay
so give me an example I mean let's say I
think probably the easiest one is where
you go from being a a a a performer or a
good performer to being someone who's
managing other performers right classic
one doesn't have to be progression
though because but that's I think a very
a very simple one right or in my
industry it'd be like going from writing
to editing would for sure be one which
is kind of a mix of writing and and
managing but that's the side step in
your industry and side step yep for sure
I mean some people would well I guess it
depends some people would would view
that and in some places it's going up
but i' a side step the other thing I
found which was uh pretty shocking was
the in the part of your book where you
start talking about some of the dangers
of specialism and you referenced a study
that found cardiac patients were less
likely to die if they were they were
admitted to a hospital yeah when the
doctors were away we can tie in a few of
the things we've been talking about to
uh uh cardiac s to surgery here so so
this was this study so I think because
I'm I'm conscious when I write about
dangers specialization hugely important
obviously and in medicine it would be
crazy to say that specialization in
medicine increasing specialization
hasn't been both inevitable and
beneficial in many
ways but the point I was trying to make
is that it's also an underrecognized
double-edged sword to the point where
these two Harvard Le studies found that
if you're checked in to a teaching
hospital with certain cardiac conditions
on the dates of a national Cardiology
convention when the most esteemed
Specialists are away you're less likely
to die that that makes no sense right
that's suboptimal outcome and and the
conclusion was that's because these
researchers or these these
surgeons have done the same procedure so
many times that they will continue to do
it even if it's not the right solution
to the problem or if data shows that it
doesn't work anymore and so this called
the einstellung effect in Psychology
where you've done you've solved a
problem a certain way so many times that
you will continue solving problems that
way even if the problem has changed or
if new data emerges that shows it's not
the right solution so it's not to say
those people aren't important but they
are human and so they fall prey to the
Ein stong effect that's again why you
want some of this this mixture and to
tyion surgery you know we've also been
talking about distraction and focus one
of those same researchers did some work
that showed that if you have a surgical
procedure and this this research looked
at 980,000
procedures that if you have a procedure
on the surgeon's
birthday you're more likely to die
within the 30 days after the surgical
procedure and they attribute it to the
increased distractions that the surgeon
is having on their birthday they don't
know whether it's external or internal
distraction um but you might not want to
have your again and you know and this
these are not huge
effects but over a large number of
people it makes a difference and if yeah
gosh that's
terrifying so you one of the things I've
come to learn today really is that
knowledge is a double-edged sword like
deep knowledge on one thing really is a
double-edged sword it will be your
making but in the long term it might
also be your breaking yeah and that
really resonates with me because as we
started the conversation with there's a
lot of things that I'm like really
knowledgeable about and know a lot about
and in fact that's my biggest curse and
I have to find a way to basically self-d
disrupt myself continually and always
assume that I am wrong and not not
always assume I'm wrong always assume
that there's a significant possibility
that I'm wrong today and maybe yesterday
I was correct but today I could be
entirely wrong um I mean I've changed my
mind about like fundamental beliefs I
had you know when I was younger and it's
weird to
think I mean like I was a grad student
environmental sciences and I was firmly
of the belief that uh environmental
preservation and technological progress
were at odds and I feel completely the
opposite now you know I think there are
technological things we can do that ruin
the environment but I actually think the
salvation of the environment requires
technological progress It's just like
fundamental beliefs about the world so I
think we should be open to that updating
and from a career perspective you know
if artificial super intelligence and
like some new form of free energy does
everything better than us then it does
and we'll have to reorient life in some
pretty dramatic ways uh but until then I
think we need to dispense with the idea
that you can live in a world where you
did a period of training for most of us
and then you're just going to benefit
off only that training for the rest of
your life you don't have to keep
relearning we have a closing tradition
on this podcast David where the last
yeah I know I love this tradition I want
to do it to like my friends when they
come
over interesting the last guest leaves a
question for the next guest interesting
oh boy it's so funny watching people's
body language when I open this book they
start to get quite nervous and it's so
funny I've asked I don't know [ __ ]
[ __ ] 100 questions today and it's when I
come to this question that people take
the longest time to answer so I'm like
these questions just better than my
questions um no some reason people get
nervous those other questions are things
that are so top of mind for me that
there's it's like a choice between which
of the three things that are in my mind
should I spit out this is like yeah this
is very different yeah uh what's your
favorite sandwich I'm joking imagine if
that was it after all I'm going to get
off easy no it's much more difficult
than that the question is what what is
your biggest fear and how
do you plan to face
it I have
a
tendency that I think in some ways is
good um and fits with some of the things
I've said but in some ways is bad to
want to start things over a lot and
sometimes that means burning them down
even if they're going well and in the
past I think I had that tendency with
some of my personal relationships to I
couldn't accept something going well
and it had to change or get better and
that led me to sometimes I think burn
down some personal relationships in ways
that I'm embarrassed of that I
regret um and I see this even in my own
work where I actually value it because I
end up doing all these new novel things
but it's almost like I can't and it's
good because like after my first book
they're like brand yourself as a sports
Gene guy I'm like no that's dead to me
now it's dead to me before it's even
published it's dead to me and that led
me to do these other interesting things
but I sometimes worry that I have this
like
pathologic why can't I just accept this
is this thing is good um and and let it
be good and it worries me much less in
my work life it worries me a little in
my work life that I'll always want to
burn something down and start over but
it does worry me there but I have a more
of a fear of it in the context of like
friendships because I know what I've
done in the past I think I'm better with
it now but thinking about the values I
have in my life going forward I don't
want
you know several relationships that were
hugely important to
me uh went away for things that were
preventable because I was like if it's
not perfect burn it down and I think
that was a really destructive impulse
um what is that in you what is that
where does that come from I don't know I
think it's like this feeling of always
want to be in becoming like this feeling
of starting over and improving that I
find
intoxicating um but I don't think that
has to apply to to personal
relationships uh and so a value that I
really want to work on I read this this
book that kind of influenced me about
philosophy and it's centered what's
called narrative values these values
that are objectively across cultures
things that people value so it's could
be like heroism right loyalty people
value that other country and that you
are subjectively attracted to and one of
the ones that I think is valued in a lot
of cultures that I'm attracted to but
that I've not been good at is
forgiveness and so my project is that's
a narrative value I want to start
building into my story to be a more
forgiving person because it's not it's
I'm not good at it uh and I need to get
good at it and I'm afraid that I won't
get good at it but I really want to well
we learn don't we and that's um that's
much of what is what is at the very
heart of your work how to become better
at learning and you've clearly
demonstrated that you're learning in
that regard I think much of the first
the first step in learning is figuring
out that we have a problem or some
something to solve as you said with your
experiments book and your books are so
unbelievably wonderful because they
present a completely original
challenging unconventional approach to
solving problems and you you do go at a
lot of the things that many of us have
accepted as narratives in our life and
if we've accepted them as narratives and
they're false then they're probably in
some way doing us a dis service in the
short or long term and that's why I find
your work so wonderfully important
because in many respects it is that
counternarrative to a lot of the things
that we've accepted and you do go the
extra mile even though it probably gives
you a headache I'm sure because a lot of
authors that I speak to don't go the
extra mile to figure out um if if what
we're being told is true and ultimately
that's a means to an end and the end is
to allow all of us to live more
optimized fulfilled and happy and
productive lives in whatever domain in
whatever definition we class those words
so thank you David for doing the work
you do I'm so excited to read whatever
you make next um and you're writing a
book on constraints and I just already
know that if it's anything like these
two books range and the sports Gene it's
going to be one of the most important
books I've ever read so thank you that
was a wonderful compliment I don't want
to add anything to that
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[Music]
Ask follow-up questions or revisit key timestamps.
David Epstein, author of 'Range' and 'The Sports Gene,' argues against the popular 10,000-hour rule for expertise. He advocates for 'breadth of training,' suggesting that diverse experiences lead to better long-term development, transfer of skills, and 'match quality.' He emphasizes the importance of self-regulatory learning—reflecting, planning, monitoring, and evaluating—and highlights that exploration is essential for sustained productivity, fulfillment, and achieving 'hot streaks' in one's career.
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