His brand is firing. His brand is

getting rid of incompetence. And now he

has he keeps them. And you're like, "Oh

my god, you're keeping the

incompetence."

Hi everyone, this is Pivot from New York

Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast

Network. I'm Cara Swisser. Scott is off,

so I brought in a brilliant co-host

again, as are everyone who's not Scott.

uh Kristen Sulttus Anderson, pollster

and co-founder of Echelon Insights and

contributing opinion writer for the New

York Times and someone I really like a

lot who's super smart. Nice to see you.

>> Well, thanks for having me, Cara.

>> Yeah. So, um welcome. What's going on?

What's going on? The world of polling is

insane right now. Correct.

>> It's it is as insane as it can be

considering that there is not an

election that is imminent. uh you know

like the world gets polling world gets

crazy in the immediate leadup to an

election because somebody's got a new

survey coming out every day in some

interesting swing state when it is

election season but right now it's a

little bit of the doldrums for that and

so what is instead kind of crazy is all

of the changes around how is AI going to

change our industry and those sorts of

things.

>> We're going to get to that. We're going

to talk about the predictions industry.

We're going to play a little bit of

Scott who loves it. I don't love it

quite so much and I know you hasn't

thought. So, it's really important to be

talking about it because what we're

interested in is accurate information

and it's very hard to get it. Anyway, uh

there's so much going on. Let's get

right to the news because you've been

doing tons of stuff in the times and

elsewhere and we've talked a little bit

about but we of course have to start

with Donald Trump has once again issued

an ultimatum to Iran. I think it's the

27th one posting on True Social on

Easter Sunday. Quote, and let me just

read this correctly. Open the

straight you crazy bastards or you'll be

living in hell. which sounds like a line

from I don't even think movies would

write those lines anymore. Um, if Iran

doesn't comply, Trump is threatening to

target the country's power plants and

bridges. Iran says it will retaliate

crushingly and extensively if civilian

infrastructure targets are hit. So,

they're just coming back with the same

dialogue. This all comes after a

successful rescue of two US airmen whose

jet was shot down uh over Iran on

Friday. It's not great, but the jets

were shot down. We're taping this before

Trump's press conference on Iran and

these military rescues. So Kristen, most

polls show the majority of Americans are

opposed to this war, right? Pretty

significantly. You recently did some

polling with Trump's MAGA base. Talk a

little bit about what's happening here

uh in the polling and the thinking

around it.

>> Yeah. So normally historically when the

US gets into conflict uh overseas

there's normally a little bit of a rally

around the flag effect um because

normally we are getting involved in

response to some kind of provocation um

whether it was after 9/11 etc. Um in

this case there was not really

groundwork laid to make the case to the

American people for why we needed to do

this. And so, you know, in my polling

when you say, "Would it be legitimate to

engage in military activity against the

Iranian government if they were

developing a nuclear weapon, like

twothirds of Americans say yes to to a

bunch of those different kinds of

things, but it's clear that that case

wasn't really made well to the public

because then when you say now, do you

support or oppose what we're doing in

Iran?" Most don't don't support it. Um,

or they have some real serious

questions. In fact, it is the MAGA base

that is the most supportive of what

we're doing. Um, there's so much

interesting discourse around how Donald

Trump reshaped the Republican party and

there's this view that there is the old

Republican party that like longs for the

day of Ronald Reagan and says, you know,

we love when the United States projects

its power overseas and that Donald Trump

has, you know, reashioned the Republican

party in his own image away from that.

No more forever wars. America first and

all of that, but actually when you ask

voters who identify themselves as like

Trump supporters first before being

Republican supporters, they are the most

likely to sort of say if Donald Trump

says it's a good idea, I'm kind of

willing to give him the benefit of the

doubt on this. Even though they backed

him for America first and no foreign

wars. Not everybody. Obviously, Marjorie

Taylor Green put out a pretty big long

well a lot of things that she put out

about his health and his mental state

and stuff like that, but um why is that?

Why is the shift? Is just whatever he

says goes or they don't really care what

the words are or the policies.

>> There are some people who are part of

Donald Trump's coalition who are pretty,

you know, they don't want the US to be

involved in military activity overseas.

They're very outspoken

>> and they're quite outspoken about it,

but those are different from MAGA

voters. And I think there's a it's like

very easy to kind of conflate like the

MAGA movement equals everybody who voted

for Donald Trump and like that's not

true. Um there are a lot of people who

in fact in some of the polling that I've

seen it is the type of voter who is not

a Republican and is pretty isolationist

is among the most likely to have like

come joined the Republican coalition

recently. So Donald Trump does have a

potential political problem with some

people who really liked him and feel

betrayed by what he's doing. But the

core MAGA faithful and the Republican

party as reconstituted by Donald Trump

at the moment is reserving judgment and

saying, you know what, I think he's

probably on the right track. Let's see

how this plays out. And how many people

is that? What is the amount? Because

majority of he's lost in the numbers are

pretty staggering when you look at any

poll. almost every one of them including

Fox polls, all kinds of polls.

>> Yeah. So, the I sort of estimate that

the MAGA movement is about a quarter to

a third depending on I mean it's a it's

a pretty fluid section of the Republican

party, but it's not half the country.

And I think the big political risk

Donald Trump faces is like it didn't

have to be something where he was losing

a majority of Americans. He could have,

I think, communicated at least somewhat

effectively about, hey, this is a

government that's been declaring death

to America for decades, and here are

these specific things that they are

doing that put us at risk. Here's why

I'm going to do this. Here's what I'm

going to take out. And I don't think it

had to be a situation where he was

losing half the public right from the

get-go. Um but because of that lack of

clarity in communication that has not

really been followed by a ton of clarity

in communication like the numbers are

getting worse not better right okay so

what talk about that for a second the

clarity and communication because a lot

of it is marketing you're talking about

marketing like we're going to market

this more to you why why was it not

there and what impact how how because

most people do give pes the benefit of

the doubt something was up although he

had previously bombed them and said he

obliterated them so why the need to

obliterate them again. I mean, I I even

had Tom Tillis saying that, like, oh, we

obliterated, then we obliterated, and

now I guess we're obliterating. He was

sort of articulating that lack of

clarity. Yeah. Well, I I don't know that

I would just say that it is marketing

because I think for something like this,

I mean, it to me the bar does feel

higher than trying to sell somebody soda

or potato chips or sneakers. I know

that's not what you're saying, but I I

think that the

>> it's not just can you put out a snazzy

video that makes it look like we're

winning at a video game and you win

because that's that's obviously part of

the strategy and and yet the numbers are

are what they are. That I think it is

just that the the American people simply

want to know why is this in our

interest? And if you can give a

reasonably good answer to why something

is in our interest, we tend as a people

to sort of give the commander-in-chief,

maybe not today with Donald Trump as

such a polarizing figure, but we tend to

say, "Okay, if you think that this is in

our best interest, like I'll give you a

couple weeks to see how this plays out."

And especially if the costs are not

significantly high, people will give a

little bit more of that runway. one, you

know, I mean, thank goodness that they

have gotten these pilots back because

that's that's the kind of thing where

it's it is I can't wait to hear the like

thrilling story of how this was done,

but a combination of if military losses

begin to pile up in a very significant

way or the domestic impacts of the

straight of Hormuz, gas prices, all of

that, you know, you can run out of that

goodwill much more quickly. But right

now, he didn't start with the the

reservoir of goodwill that as a

president you would want. Some of that's

because he's Donald Trump and there's

just some people who aren't going to

like anything he does. But he also

starts with people who will like

anything he does. Uh who do sort of give

him that benefit of the doubt even if

they would not give a president Marco

Rubio or President JD Vance that same

leeway. And it does not seem like he has

taken this moment. And his numbers have

not gone up at all. They're going down.

They're going down with everybody.

Correct. So let's talk about that

because the the numbers really are

decline. They keep declining, which is

really usually doesn't happen,

especially for the midterms. President

Trump's approval rating is just at 35%

for his handling of the presidency

overall and 31% for his handling of the

economy, according to recent CNN

polling. However, the news isn't great

on either side. About a quarter of the

country holds negative views of both

parties. That's something not a fresh

thing. Talk about when you look at this

information as it is. You know, one of

the things about Donald Trump is he's

unprecedented. He's unprecedented in the

decline and he's still standing kind of

stuff. He keeps taking the punches here

from a polling and and and you can feel

it. I have a lot of MAGA not MAGA Trump

adjacent relatives and they really don't

like him like suddenly. Um and they

never would express that before. There's

I think two things that are that are

ominous for Republicans. The first is

with everything that's going on in

foreign policy, um, foreign policy is

not most voters number one issue, but it

is the background music. It is the thing

that tells you what the

commander-in-chief's values are. It says

a lot about what his temperament is. is

I mean we already this is what he's

interested in like not daycare not

>> this is well covered territory with

Donald Trump in some ways but it just

sort of focuses the mind a little on

like what is it that this person is all

about you you frankly saw something like

this with Biden when you saw his job

approval as we withdrew from Afghanistan

and as that went terribly that was the

moment when his job approval went

underwater and never recovered. It's not

because most voters said what we do in

Afghanistan is my number one issue, but

it just it like communicates something

about the level of competence and

priority setting and decision-m within

the Oval Office that like carries over

and bleeds over into how people think on

a whole variety of issues. Um, that's

risk number one. Risk number two on the

economy. Um, I I don't want to take

credit for this, but this was the my

friends at the Central Air podcast were

talking about this that essentially

Donald Trump had really good numbers in

his first term on the economy. Even

among voters who didn't like him

overall, thought he was crude, thought

he was crass, thought he was a jerk, all

of that. They still thought, not all of

them, but a small subset thought, "Yeah,

but at least he's good on the economy."

And when COVID happened, he still got

kind of a pass. Like people sort of

understood

>> not his fault. Yeah, like he did not

create this virus. For all his faults,

he's this is this this was not on him.

Um

>> for all the bleach infected in

for this time around, there's really no

one else he can blame for the state of

the economy. And he has tried to say,

I'm just cleaning up Biden's mess. But

you kind of run out of runway on that

eventually where voters say like I'm t

like Biden is so irrelevant to me. I'm

tired of hearing about him. Just tell me

what you're doing. What are you going to

do? I I I don't I don't care what

happened in 2023, 2024. Um

the fact that his numbers on the economy

in that CNN poll had 31% job approval,

that is atrocious. That is a five alarm

fire level number because one, it's way

below like the norm for job approval

these days hovers around 40%. You start

getting into the 30s and that's scary

land. you get into the low30s and that

is like terminal. Um, and it for it to

be on the economy which you know there

have been other issues where he is job

approval has fluctuated big time and

people said oh I don't trust him on this

X Y or Z. The economy was always a

thing. Oh, he's the apprentice guy. Oh,

he's the business guy. And so for his

job approval to be that low on the

economy, if that does not turn around,

that suggests to me a very troubling

midterm for Republicans with that.

recently on how Gen Z voters are feeling

about the economy. What did you find

there?

>> Give us some.

>> So Gen Z voters have uh the worst view

of the economy and even in just the last

month it has plummeted precipitously. So

when I say, you know, on the foreign

policy stuff that Donald Trump mostly

has the MAGA movement, there is a divide

within the Republican party and it is

older voters versus Gen Z. And so it is

Gen Z Republicans in addition to Gen

Zers who are not Republicans who are

increasingly saying like this economy

isn't working for me. And whether it's a

combination of they are approaching

graduation and the job market's not what

they want, whether they feel like the

affordability crisis is keeping home

ownership and you know a whole variety

of sort of life aspirations out of reach

um or just a sense that there's not as

much opportunity um for them to build

the kind of career they want. I did some

focus groups for the New York Times uh

very recently where we talked to Gen Z

white collar job seekers and it was I

mean it was heart it was like

unsurprising but also just heartbreaking

to hear

these young people talk about what it is

like to try to get a job in a moment

when they for some of them they went to

college because they were told you need

this credential now they've got debt and

they still send out a 100 applications

and they get five people to call them

back of which three then proceed to

ghost them and the other one the other

two are AI. Yeah, exactly.

>> Um and so it was just it it felt it

there was a bleakness to it that was was

disputing because normally when I talk

to Gen Z folks like there's very much a

yeah everything's terrible but like our

generation is going to fix it. And it it

almost feels like right now, do people

feel like they have any sense of control

or ability to shape the future or is it

just like bigger, more powerful stuff at

play that they won't be able to put

their heads down?

>> And they blame Trump for this, correct?

Or

>> in our focus group, I in our focus

group, it was actually a more Demle

leaning group. I don't know chicken or

the egg. Is that because that's more of

who was looking for jobs or what have

you? Um, and we really didn't talk too

much about Trump himself. Um,

>> right. But it's a feeling and he's

standing at the top. Right. That's my

less that they say I can't get a job and

it's Donald Trump's fault and it's more

I can't get a job. It feels like society

has been moving in a bad direction for a

while and I don't know like who's

sending the lifeboats like who's coming

to rescue us? I don't know that

anybody's in the prime position. When

you think about that his outbursts, how

much do they matter anymore? like the

one this weekend. Of course, once again,

and I don't mean to say the word pearl

clutching, but everyone's like, "Oh, can

you believe he said it?" I'm like, "Yes,

he seems cognitively disabled to me. I

don't I'm not a doctor, but he's as

crazy as ever, and he's not. That's not

changed." Does that matter when he does

these sort of outbursts or are they just

noise now with him with voters?

>> Well, there's this weird disconnect

where if you ask voters what they think

about things like that, they tell you

they don't like them. And yet I if if

market signals are to be believed, more

politicians seem to be leaning into that

kind of behavior, a sort of like if you

can't beat them, join them type

approach. So like I would think if you

if you just take people at their word,

they want candidates who compromise and

candidates who behave in a manner that

is befitting the office and all of those

different things. and then who shows up

and votes in a primary like puts people

in who have un unbelievable flaws in in

any number of ways. So I think you're

right and I don't think it's pearl

clutching or or if it is like I'm I'm

I'm pearl clutching a little bit. Not

that I'm surprised but that I'm

disappointed

uh that we now have this

>> horseness where

>> like the president of the United States

is tweeting fbombs. I don't love that.

That's like maybe that's just me as a

small C conservative like I'm I'm not

interested. No thank you.

>> Um

>> but the reality is that voters say they

don't want it and then this is who gets

elected. And whether it's they're voting

for him in spite of it or because of it.

Like I think there's some people it's

because of it. They like that he doesn't

sound like somebody straight out of

central casting. Um,

>> yeah.

>> Yeah.

>> But I do wonder if there will be a

backlash at some point. If Americans

start to want straight out of Central

casting sound like the old man at the my

mom's uh senior living facility who you

really need you go around to get off the

elevator for. Um and and initially

you're like and then you're like shut

the up daddy grandpa. Anyway, um

it's a really interesting thing because

I think just like with Iran or anything

else it's a background noise that's

disconcerting right

a direct thing. It's not soothing. It's

not This is not America does not feel

like the spa music is on. Let's put it

that way. Especially with these young

voters that you're seeing it. If you had

to pick one polling thing that you went,

"Oh my goodness sakes, one upside or

downside. What is there something that

stuck out from you recently in your

polling?" Well, I think it is about Gen

Z and the economy and it is when we've

been asking people, do you think the

economy is um headed in the right

direction or the wrong direction? We've

been asking them this for years. People

generally have been saying it's been

headed in the wrong direction and you

can break it out by generation. And for

the most part, this has not been

something where like older voters think

everything is great and younger voters

think it's terrible. Like everybody's

kind of been aligned about where things

are at. But in just the last month in

our March data, the Gen Z respondents, I

mean, it fell off a cliff in terms of

their feelings about the economy. And

the reason why that sticks out is one,

it's a it's breaking of a big trend that

we'd had for a long time of kind of

everybody feels like the economy is not

doing great. Um, but just for to see

them get so much more depressed in just

a month was was really jarring. But

number two, think about the kind of

coalition that Republicans put together

that have enabled them to have sort of

better thanex expected elections. It's

in part because they they tried to

repair the damage that had been done

with younger voters. And if you are

presiding over an economy where Jenz is

feeling like this, like that's it. The

only thing you have going for you is the

fact that Jenz finds Democrats to be

uninspiring at the moment. Um, that's

not a great thing to hang your hat on.

So to me it's it is that Jenzi economic

number more so than anything specific

about foreign

>> it's an opportunity for Democrats

presumably correct is an opportunity

>> it is it is an opportunity for Democrats

but I think the thing that Democrats are

getting wrong is like that they they

know that affordability is the thing on

everybody's minds and so they know to

like mouth the words yes we care about

cost of living and that may be enough if

things are bad enough you can just say

I'm not the other guy and that that

could be adequate but I still think

think that voters also in the surveys

that I see harbor some skepticism about

what Democrats would do if given the

reigns again. Like, okay, we don't love

what Trump's doing, but we still don't

love the way Biden handled this either.

So, what's your plan? Is your plan to

open up the spigot of money and

subsidize everything to pretend like it

goes away, but that drives inflation?

Like, we don't want that either.

>> Run the deficit.

>> Yeah. I don't I don't think that

fresh ideas that actually solve people's

problems. Incredible. Well, that's what

they're supposed to do. Okay, Kristen,

let's go on a quick break. When we come

back, we'll talk about a potential

cabinet shakeup and who might be the

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Christine, we're back. Pam Bondi and

Christy No may have just been the

beginning. A Trump cabinet shakeup is

reportedly in the works, though the

president is denying it, which means

it's happening. The White House official

told Reuters to expect a targeted churn

rather than a big uh dramatic reset,

which this feels like a corporation.

Some of the names potentially on the

chopping block. Director of National

Intelligence Telsey Gabbard, FBI

Director Cash Patel, Commerce Secretary

Howard Lutnik, uh, Labor Secretary Lori

uh, Derimer. As for Bondi's replacement,

her deputy and Trump's former attorney

Todd Blanch is currently serving as

acting AG and he's already trying to

distance the DOJ from the Epstein files,

telling Fox last week that all the files

have been released. talk a little bit

about what's happening here in terms of

um this and does this create more of a a

voter dissatisfaction or is it I mean

this happens in every administration

where there's a shakeup kind of thing.

It's not a and the last Trump

administration was was like a manic

episode of of the apprentice of course

and people went in and out quite a lot.

This is this is these people have had

some staying power and they're 100% less

competent. So talk a little bit about

that. I think a shakeup can be a very

good thing, especially if like let's

take Christy. This is a great example of

an issue immigration was an issue where

Republicans and Donald Trump had a

massive advantage that they haven't

always had, but there was a real

willingness to like America had moved to

the right on these issues and said do

what you got to do to get the border

secure.

and the way in which this was handled

culminating in I mean embarrassment is

is probably too light a way to frame it

but the events of the last couple of

months in terms of of ICE specifically

>> um

>> just this week with with a service

member's wife being grabbed off a base

>> I I just feel like for Donald Trump you

you can't your political coalition can't

survive if you don't have people coming

to you going well at least he knows what

to do about the border at least he knows

how to handle this issue It's kind of a

core piece of glue that holds different

pieces of his coalition together. And if

you lose that, what do you have? So by

being able to sort of say, okay, I'm

cutting this person. This person has

been an embarrassment to me and look, my

numbers on this issue have fallen.

It is good that he is at least not

taking the position of like I'm just

going to I'm going to circle the wagons

and we're going to say that everything's

fine and it's just the liberal media

that's being mean. So I think to some

level these shakeups are what Donald

Trump's voters expect from him,

especially those folks who are not

diehard Republicans, but instead

gravitated to him for some combination

of the economy and immigration and vibes

that like being able to show yes, I want

new people running the show. I have been

unsatisfied with what they've been

doing.

>> Well, his brand started with that.

You're fine.

>> Exactly. Exactly. So, I don't know what

that means about who would be next. I

mean, I think about some of the names

that were on your list, and some of them

have done more that has publicly brought

strife to the White House than others.

And I think that's probably the thing

that is animating this more. Like, I

don't know to what extent his decision

to to bid farewell to Christine Gnome.

Was it about how ICE was handling the

issue of immigration or was it how she

handled hearings and some of these

embarrassing stories about like you know

the the planes and god knows what else?

>> Um yeah

>> but so that that's sort of how I

>> honestly husband's the coolest thing

about her but go ahead.

All of which is to say I think if you

want to know like where the change would

come next I think the most important

criteria is likely who who is reflecting

well on this White House not who has you

know something that's like got the

beltway in a stir but it's not really

reflecting badly on him

>> right so it has to be who who does break

through of these cabinet members with

the voters the ones that you're polling

>> so I honestly think that if you asked

voters which member of the cabinet is

the most supportive of tariffs. I do not

think very many would be able to name

Howard Lutnik. Um so that again I'm I am

not a Trump Kremlinologist but to me it

does not seem as though there's anything

on the outside that would be driving

that in quite the same way as say cash

Patel at the FBI drinking with the

hockey team or you know any number of

cases that the FBI has been handling and

questions about the effectiveness of of

that. Um, so again, don't know which way

he would go first, but to me that seems

to be the most important variable or

most obvious.

>> Are you looking like an idiot publicly

to a wide range of people? In other

words, like a lot of people as opposed

to say the labor secretary who's just

seems naughty uh in a really bad way

kind of thing because we've had naughty

cabinet members for ever from what I can

glean and stuff. But it but it doesn't

break through with voters. more like

Cash Patel drink down in the beer is a

real bad visual for example.

>> Well, and you know how Donald Trump

feels about visuals like that. That's

really really really important. The

public image, do you look the part? Um

and if you begin to fail on those

dimensions, that's often when it's it's

time for he's looking for somebody

different.

>> So is that is that a good thing? As you

say, a shakeup isn't a bad thing, right?

It shows you're you know you know look

busy, Jesus is coming kind of thing like

that kind of thing.

>> Well, yeah. I think es especially

because of what you said about his brand

as the apprentice guy. I think the idea

that you I mean remember like think

about what he did with Doge when he

first came into office. He just went

through and slashed and burned. So we're

going to fire a whole bunch of people. I

mean that is

>> his brand

>> which which it should not just be

isolated to lower runs if you're really

going to live through uh you know live

up to it and and press through with it.

Um, it it it almost uniquely is a

probably a good thing for Trump in a way

that it might not even be for other

administrations,

>> right? No, his brand is firing. His

brand is getting rid of incompetence and

now he has he keeps them and you're

like, "Oh my god, you're keeping the

incompetence that I would agree having

watched all those shows."

>> And then the last question is for all of

this, whether it's court appointments or

cabinet appointments, what do you think

the United States Senate is likely to

look like after November? And how likely

is it that you think you will be able to

get someone confirmed through a Senate

that potentially has more Democrats in

it than it does today? I mean, those are

things that I think are probably also

weighing on the minds of the Susie Wilds

of the world who are are keeping track

of that.

>> Yeah, the incompetence might have to

stay. So, one of the things that's

interesting uh also happening is the

federal government is suing multiple

states over attempts to ban betting on

Kouchy and other platforms. Now, let's

be clear. Donald Trump's children are

part of this um or on the boards or

advisers to both Poly Market and Kelshi.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission

is arguing that it has the sole

authority that that's what they're using

to regulate these predictions markets.

Meanwhile, Poly Market is apologizing

after users were allowed to bet on the

fate of the US pilots whose jet was

downed in Iran. Pretty losome, saying it

did not meet their integrity standards.

Incredible. Both Poly Market and Calier

are now rolling out campaigns to attract

female users framing prediction markets

as another way to be a hashgirl boss

which by the way girl boss is over kids

boys. We've been talking a lot about

these markets here on Pivot and you and

I have talked about it and so I want to

play something Scott said a few weeks

ago and get your thoughts. Let's listen.

>> The speculative markets, speculation

markets or prediction markets have

essentially put pollsters and to a

certain extent investment banking

analysts out of work because guess what?

They're much

>> kind of I I would push back on that. I

just met with a bunch of pollsters on

this topic, but go ahead.

>> In my opinion, they're done. They if you

look at if you look at if you look at

the prediction markets record versus

pollsters in the last election, the

prediction markets kicked their ass.

>> All right, Pollster, what's your

response? I I was trying to defend you

there. Um, talk about about what's

happening with them and your thoughts on

it and what you like and don't like

about them and and um just so you know,

uh there's another possible nail in the

coffin for polling. There's now

something called silicon sampling that

uses AI models to simulate simulate

survey responses, not real people. Um,

talk a little bit what's happening here

in the polling market.

>> Sure. So, I have a lot of thoughts on

both of these. First, to Scott's point,

I I do not think that prediction markets

are going to put polling out of

business. One, because 99% of what

pollsters do is not polling that tries

to track who is going to win an

election. Like I know that's the most

public thing that people see from our

industry, but 99% of it is message

testing, strategy, model building, the

sorts of things for which being within

margin of error, meaning your result is

within three points in either direction.

Like that's that's okay. That's sort of

understood.

>> Give me an example. Just make it up.

Just like you pull what?

>> So I I can tell you about the polling

we've done on I've done some polling on

prediction markets. um where you know

I'm asking to what extent are people

using them? What are they using them

for? And those are the kinds of things

that are valuable for somebody who might

be trying to decide do I invest in one

of these companies like if I'm going to

regulate them, what sort of regulatory

approach should I take? Uh it's the sort

of thing where like I'll give you an

example. In our poll, we found about

onethird of people either bet on

prediction markets, that's not a

majority of them, or like use the data

like they either they tune into it just

for entertainment purposes or what have

you. So, if my poll shows 36% of people

fall into that category, the real

number, assuming that I've done my

survey right, the real number could be a

few points off in either direction, and

that's not the end of the world. It

still means my analysis is still useful

directionally. It's telling us something

interesting about thing where things are

going. I think this focus so exclusively

on polling as a like crystal ball to

tell me if an election is going to get

won won by candidate A or candidate B

just sort of misunderstands our

industry. But the second thing is what

is causing these prediction markets to

give the predictions they are. So, think

about there was a a a man um I think he

was based in France who placed a huge

bet in the last election that Donald

Trump was going to win and afterwards,

you know, he he makes this like six

figure sum off of his bet and that's all

great. And they ask him, you know, how'd

you do it? And he said, "Oh, I

commissioned a poll." Um the polls are

still an input to what these prediction

markets are doing. In a world without

polls, your prediction market is running

on vibes and fundraising numbers, which

are fine, but polls are an extremely

they are a loadbearing pillar in what

people think about what's going to

happen in an election.

>> So So predictions would be a trailing

indicator or what how do you look at

that?

>> Yes. So I I think that in general, well,

I I think when it comes to election

results, they don't have to be a

trailing indicator, but I think that

polls are an input. There are they are

not the only input. So other things can

change, right? My poll can say that so

and so is going to win the primary in

Texas, but all of a sudden some new news

story could break that shows that Ken

Paxton or John Cornin did something, you

know, that could upend the race. Who

knows?

>> It's usually Paxton

>> and then the prediction market would be

the leading indicator ahead of when the

poll is going to capture that. Um, but

you still need the poll involved. And

that's also what I think about this

whole synthetic respondents, AI

respondents. You know, nowadays you're

seeing more people.

>> Yeah. And and there were some attempts

to do this in the 2024 election that I

think were actually less accurate than

>> Explain what people what it is. You use

AI model. Explain for people who don't

understand.

>> Yeah. So, if you've ever used one of

these models, whether it's your chat GPT

or your Claude, and you can like train

Claude or Chat GPT or whoever to kind of

learn a certain persona, imagine that

you've then trained a thousand different

personas that kind of look like a real

voter. Okay, I've trained one persona to

be a 40-year-old woman living in

Orlando, Florida, and she's a moderate

Republican. And now I've got another bot

that is trained to be a conservative

Democrat, and he lives in rural

Pennsylvania. And and then basically,

you just ask those thousand AI

personalities to tell you, are you

voting for a Republican or a Democrat?

And then you take those results and you

say, "Hey, look, I did a poll. I did a

poll of a thousand AI people who

represent real voters,

>> right?

>> Um,

>> and I just think presenting that as a

poll is disingenuous. I think you can

present it as a modeled estimate. Like I

think there's lots of things you can

present it as.

>> Do you use model that like use AI? How

do you use it in

>> post? So we the way we use AI, you can

use AI to help you know with programming

tasks. It's enormously helpful. You can

use AI to help you analyze data when it

comes back. Like the old school way of

analyzing polling data is you do a

survey and you get back cross tabs that

is this like 500page PDF with a ton of

numbers on each page and you as the

pollster are sifting through looking for

stuff that's that's meaningful. The fact

that you can feed that in and have AI

tell you, hey, here are the top 10 most

interesting things in that poll. Eight

out of 10 are going to be pretty good.

one out of the 10 will be right but not

really that important and then one will

be like completely wrong and so you

still have to as the pollster exercise

your judgment go through go through your

own data uh and know but like there are

useful applications of AI in polling but

ultimately if you think about those

synthetic personas what's training that

synthetic 40-year-old suburban mom who

lives in Orlando on how she ought to

respond a poll it's probably a poll that

was done to so all of this whether it's

prediction markets or these synthetic AI

samples all of them at their root have

real polling as an input and it's like a

game of telephone and they're just like

the next piece in the line and you can

add other useful inputs that might give

them some advantages but they're still

not a replacement for polling they are

just a different application of polling

>> so what when you say that when the

federal government is saying commodity I

think futures trading should be

regulating them. They're not regulating

them. Is it fair? Is it sort of like It

reminds me a little bit of your like

commerce people, retail people who are

offline having to fight with online.

They had distinct advantages here. They

can they can do whatever these people to

grow large. What do you imagine? How who

should be states are rushing in because

they have long long regulated gambling.

Every state does has its different

gambling laws and that's not something

the federal government ever did. So is

it like gambling from your perspective

or how should they be regulated when you

think about it given presumably you're

not that regulated but you you have a

set of standards that you're working

around. I I think the big challenge is

how do you balance the value that a

prediction market can provide to society

beyond it's just entertainment, right?

like what is the what is the value

beyond entertainment of I'm betting on

who's going to win the Super Bowl like

and so we have to decide do we think

that's an acceptable form of

entertainment but the the the promise of

prediction markets is theoretically that

you can also surface new information

about things that have not yet happened

that might be valuable for the public to

know the question is then like when does

that cross into insider trading like for

me I feel I've never bet on a prediction

market because I would feel

uncomfortable about like I come out of

the field with a survey. I then know

what's happening in the Texas primary

and therefore I can know hm I think

candidate X Y or Z is probably up and if

I really trust my data why don't I put a

couple thousand bucks on on this bet and

I just don't feel right about that. I it

something about it feels like insider

trading and I think that's where

it's and I don't know what the

>> you're just having more insight, right?

That's kind of an interesting example.

You have some in is that insider or is

that was your own data?

>> I I don't I think you're right that

that's not insider trading in the way

that but it is like it is non-public

information that I would be using to

benefit. It's not the same as being an

insider at a company where there are

very specialized strict rules around

that. But I think it's that that

muddying of the waters, right? And so

you've been seeing this too with some of

these markets that have had bets around

things like will the United States do

military operation X and all of the

sudden right before it happens, you see

somebody bets like $300,000 sitting next

to Trump in the White House and they

just heard it, right?

>> And like and so I do think that that

that's that raises some real questions.

If we're going to have rules around

insider trading, when does that start to

bleed over into what is or is not

allowable conduct in terms of prediction

markets?

>> Have they hurt themselves? You know, but

sometimes it's not insider. Like, it

sounds crazy, but when Warner Brothers

was $7 and that all the bidding started,

I'm like, these rich people will pay

anything. And so, I bought 10 shares cuz

I was like, and it was only 10 cuz I was

like, I think they're dumb, stupid

money, so they're going to overpay. And

I just and I took myself out for a nice

dinner because I was right. And that was

information I had, but anyone could have

figured it out. Dumb, stupid money, for

example. And thank you for the dinner,

Allison's. I appreciate it. When you

have these things doing this, when

they're putting in this sort of they

kind of fud muddy the line. There's also

these betting on heinous things, right,

which makes it feel like gambling. And

then attracting female users is a

problem. They've got a bad reputation

from the get-go, including attracting

the attention of regulators, right? Like

in terms of their bad behaviors. Yeah.

So, when when I look at the polling I've

done on this, and again, in disclosure,

I did polling uh for um an organiz It's

all it's all publicly available, but

sort of an entity that like I think

invests in uh some of these prediction

markets. And in general, just a lot of

people don't know that much about them.

like they're pretty split on whether

it's good or bad, but everybody's got an

attit an an attitude about it. Everybody

has like an opinion of some sort. But

when we ask about prediction markets,

like half of Americans have no idea how

they feel about it. Um, most have not

heard anything in the news about a

prediction market in the last 12 months.

So, there is a real risk and real

opportunity for that industry. And it's

why they're trying to get out ahead of

it and say, "Hey, right now, like in my

data, it showed it too. if it's if you

are male, if you are under the age of

50, if you are higher educated, higher

income, like you are the most likely to

know about prediction markets and be

interested in them and think they're a

good thing. Um, and so they're trying to

say, okay, we've got to tell our story

or someone else is going to tell our

story. And that's why you're seeing

efforts to try to expand beyond.

>> So they've got an opportunity despite

all the bad the bad press. But it seems

like the bad press keeps piling on this

US pilots jet thing. I thought, "Oh my

god, I think

>> this is the for, you know, for any for a

platform that has control over what

markets can be made and and not made,

you know, having that judgment of what

where's the upside? is is the upside in

ma max maximizing the sorts of things

people can bet on and not restricting it

too tightly knowing that we're going to

have a couple of these that are like

cringe cringeworthy versus more tightly

regulating it sort of playing it safer

>> you have higher upside in terms of your

favorability but

>> you then as a platform are in that role

that you will recall the social media

companies did not want to be in when it

came to like deciding where's the

boundaries of political speech How do

you decide what constitutes a market

that is out of bounds? Like you don't

want to be business

>> did better by looking safer, right? Like

right now from the polling, do you think

that doing what anything goes is a

particularly good way to do it?

>> No. And I I think there there is a

significant difference between people's

comfort level with prediction markets as

a sort of adjacent to the sorts of

betting and chance things that they

know. But it's it's slightly better than

just chance because you can use your own

judgment to say, "Okay, I think X, Y,

and Z is going to happen." You can use

your own smarts toward it accordingly. I

think that's why it could have a

slightly better it it could wind up with

people liking it more than they like

something like sports betting where

you're just like I hope this team wins.

I like them. Um but there are real

downsides if you have people creating

these horrible or unsavory markets where

it feels like you've just turned

something very serious

into fighting.

>> That's what it feels like for like in a

fighting mode. Like I don't mind a

little bit of a boxing match, but I

don't really want to watch animals rip

each other apart, right? Either like

some people do, but it sort of feels it

has that sort of stink to it. Um, let me

last question. You know, Scott is

absolutely saying your your business is

finished. Um, you're out of work because

of them. How give one more answer to

Scott Galley, please. the political

polling industry is going to be fine

because when we are in moments of deep

uncertainty,

that is the moment when people,

companies, trade associations, you name

it, people are the most hungry to know

what the heck is everybody thinking,

where is this all headed? And with the

understanding that polling is not the

only or perfect way to get a read on

that, but is a as I described it like a

loadbearing pillar. It's a really

important input. I mean, when the world

is in a moment of turmoil or dramatic

change, that is when people want this

data more than ever. And where something

that is

>> trained on polling data, but kind of off

and not quite there

>> is not going to be

as as much as real polling is imperfect,

it's still the real thing.

>> Yeah. I always am like I always Scott,

I'm always like, "What's in there? Who's

doing it? Who's doing the bedding? I

don't know who they are, right? Like it

could be a bunch of It probably is a

bunch of white bro millennials. That's

who and I don't that's their opinion,

not everybody's opinion. That's my

thing. And especially if there's not a

lot of women in there, there's not a lot

of different economic groups. You don't

get a really particularly good sample.

That's my feeling. When when we get

closer to the election, the safest and

healthiest way to consume polling data

is just take it and throw it in the

average. Don't panic about anyone

individual poll. Everything's going to

be all right. No, thank you.

>> Well, I don't know about the last part.

>> I don't know about the last part.

Anyway, uh you you crazy bastards. You

know, like I say, every accusation is a

confession. Uh anyway, uh let's go on a

quick break. When we come back, Open AI

gets into podcasts.

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Christian, we're back with more news.

You just sort of talked about this, the

idea of where you get your narrative and

information from. It has to be good and

wide. So, OpenA has acquired the tech

news podcast TBPN. The online talk show

focuses by the minute analysis of tech

news and interviews with top tech

leaders. TPBN averages 70,000 viewers

per episode across everything. And let

me just say they are tiny compared to

Pivot and other things. Tiny, tiny,

tiny. That said, it's become popular

among a certain group of Silicon Valley

power players who go on it because they

want to be licked up and down all day.

Um, oh, I'm sorry, boys. Is that Did I

say that too wrong? Okay. Sometimes

you're spiky and fun, but really it's

pretty much a up to me PR. Um, OpenAI

says the show will stay editorially

independent, which we do not believe.

Um, talk about this idea of buying

narratives when you when you're thinking

about it because, you know, a lot of

people want to, you know, you do polling

so you have better narratives and craft

messages. That's one of the things you

do for people is tell them how to craft

their messages. talk a little bit about

this effort and you know that's in the

backdrop of um of many company many tech

companies trying to buy into uh into uh

various things like Paramount etc. So

what this reminds me of is there's

actually a a piece out in today's which

I guess the day we're taping this uh New

York Times David Pluff who I think is

very like still one of the smartest

minds on the Democratic

>> love this piece please. Uh it was it was

yeah this piece is essentially saying

that everything is content creation now

that if you are running for office,

>> if you are engaged in politics, the most

important thing you need to be doing is

creating content. That if you are

relying on anybody else to get your

message out but you, you are foolish. um

and that you need to essentially have a

studio within your campaign headquarters

where you are just non-stop producing

content because everything now is is

that uh I think that's really smart. Um

you know I think about that in terms of

like look at the media properties in the

political space that are really like

thriving and doing exciting stuff now

the like the pucks and the punch bowls

and all of that. I mean they're very

focused on like we are constantly

creating content. We're finding a

million new channels to do it. Sometimes

it's in person events, sometimes it's

digital, but it it is a like always on

kind of approach. And I think companies

realizing this uh is probably smart.

Although there's a there's a a flip side

to this, which is,

>> you know, we've we've been going through

a moment in the last few years where it

feels like, you know, everybody

everybody's got a new podcast, Cara. You

know, everybody's like, "Ah, I'm going

to create content. If you build it, they

will come." And that's not true at all.

Lots of people can build podcasts that

or you know create content that sort of

goes out into the ether to die. Yeah.

And especially if it doesn't feel

authentic, if it feels driven by a

corporate narrative, it it starts to

lose some of what might make content

>> great otherwise. So like I imagine there

are a bunch of candidates who could take

pluff at at his word and start doing

what he says and would produce terrible

content.

>> Yes. Good and genuine. Yeah, you're

right 100%. Yeah. So he that was a

really interesting piece and I really I

like David and it was absolutely true.

Although it's kind of like no

Sherlock. I was like what? You're

kidding. The content's important.

>> No, but see you you and I think like oh

yeah no kidding. But it it is truly this

idea that politics is now about being

always on media messaging non-stop. That

is actually something that is

>> not which is important to a lot of

people. Trump has proven that for many

years. Obviously, now it's getting the

the show's getting a little old in the

tooth right now and kind of crazy, but

that's all right. It's a little like

network at the very end. Um, when Howard

had some problems. Um, but you know, you

see AOC did it from the get-go, was very

genuine to herself and she's obviously

talking her own book, but it's very

effective. Same thing with Mom Donnie

who's been very good and he's continuing

to govern that way. If you notice all

his really interesting and they're good,

they're good. They're fun and they're

they're creative. Um you don't have to

agree with them to not say, "Wow, look

at that. That's really well done." Um

especially during snowstorm, he did a

couple of good ones that were just sort

of it wasn't political. It was just

here's how we're doing it and they were

funny and quirky. His whole thing, there

was one he did the smile where he has

that weird smile and they made his whole

staff made fun of his smile and I

thought that was it was based on the

movie Smile which was a horror movie

which was funny. It's just he's very on

top of things and so are a lot of by the

way Republicans. Some Republicans do a

good job at it. Not not as many, but

Trump certainly absolutely for many

years has done a really good job. I

think the problem with these things is

people don't realize tech has tried this

a dozen times. Many years ago, Yahoo

tried to do a news product and that

didn't work because they weren't doing

any original reporting or anything else.

They were just mouththing stuff. Um, uh,

Andre Hordes famously had a blog and

called me and said they were going to

beat me at my own game. And I'm like,

good luck. First of all, media

is hard and it doesn't make money.

Sorry. Like you're you're entering a

really like like what are you doing? And

it well didn't work. They've tried a

number of times that that particular

group and you know it's always sort of

failed. AOL did it a little bit like

around the edges tried to you know to

create some and it just doesn't happen.

So I think one of the things is I get

that you feel more comfortable in these

settings where people are a little bit

like your giant brain is so smart. Tell

me how that works. And I think that has

value by the way you know it's startup

people are always interested in how did

I do that right how did you do that and

they don't want any push back they just

want to hear your techniques whatever

even if it's PR but eventually it's not

truthful right of like the real

struggles companies have and when you

have a little friction with a reporter

it does create really interesting

conversations and the only person I

would look to would be Apple Steve Jobs

he kept coming back to be interviewed by

me even though I know I irritated him

right? Because it was an interesting

conversation and it would help him. It

clarified things. Um, we were fair with

him at the same time. I don't think we

ever pulled any ridiculous, stupid,

snarky moves. Um, but in a lot of ways,

I feel responsible for this kind of

nonsense because they just don't want to

talk to anyone they consider difficult

and would prefer to be. And I don't

think that is the best outcome

editorially. I just don't I just don't

think it becomes I think there'll be a

backlash and they'll start talking to

actual reporters that are fair. That's

my feeling, but I don't know. Maybe I'm

open. I don't really want to talk to

them anymore anyway. So, it doesn't

matter in some level, but I don't know.

We'll see. It's a small amount of money

to pay for possible good PR in a new

fresh way.

>> Is it a small amount of money? I feel

like the reporting was that it was not a

small amount of money. Yeah, but for

them it's a small amount of money and

they've said that essentially on the

show is like that was a lot of money.

We're taking it and running and that

will be the end of it I suspect. But

it's glad it's glad they have people

telling them they're great. That's

really good because they need that

because you know money doesn't seem to

make them happy.

>> Um in any case, we'll see. Do you see a

lot of Are you impressed by a lot of

political um outfits? Give me give me

things that you think are have done it

well in the political space.

>> I will cross party.

>> Well, yeah. So, I'll I'll cross party

lines and say that I I think that AOC is

somebody who an example that I always

give um of something that she did that

has just like lodged in my brain and I

wish every politician would understand

that this is the way the world works is

she appeared on um a skincare

influencers platform. This was like two

or three years ago. This wasn't this

isn't terribly recent, but she went on

to talk about uh sunscreen regulation.

Like right now, if you try to buy

sunscreen in the US, there are

sunscreens that are better elsewhere in

the world, but you cannot get them here.

They're not FDA approved. Um they're not

dangerous. Everything's fine with them.

They just for whatever reason, you can't

get them here. And so she went on this

skincare influencer show to talk a

little bit about that specific issue.

And like, isn't it crazy that you can't

get these good sunscreens here? which is

not an issue that is obviously right

left coded or if anything it's almost

more rightcoded. It's like hey the

government is regulating away your right

to have this really good sunscreen. Um

but she went somewhere where people who

are not necessarily going to tune in and

watch her on MSNBC or MS now whatever

we're calling it. Um you know that

that's not the audience she's going

after. She's going after people who

might be much more loosely attached to

the political process, but she's getting

herself in front of them on an issue

that they care about with some

credibility and that opens the door then

to say, "Hey, come follow me." Like, you

may not follow members of Congress

because that may seem lame and horrible,

but I am not as lame and horrible as the

rest of them, so please follow me. And

you build that audience. And I think

most politicians if you were like go on

a skincare influ I mean they're you

wouldn't want that for most of them but

just whatever the equivalent of that is

like you want to talk about emissions

regulations like go on a car podcast I

just I think that most people in

Washington are not thinking in that gear

and that is where the future is going to

be won. It's not

>> and also corporations too participating.

I think Wendy's does a good job. I think

King Arthur Baking, you can you can name

a dozen of them. Sometimes they can spin

out of control, but often it's a really

interesting

>> uh way to sort of genuinely explain

yourself to people in a as long as it's

not cringe, right? In some fashion over

advertising.

>> I 100% I I mean, if you're not out

there, if you're not telling your story,

someone else is. So, it's important to

go out there. It's important to be in

places where it's not just it's

important to be in I think nonobvious

places, but I also like the tension is

then you don't want to do stuff that's

forced and feels cringeworthy. Um but

just letting letting the other side own

the airspace or letting your opponents

own the airspace is is not really as

much of a viable option. Yeah. very

quickly. Um, obviously banks and

advisers working on the SpaceX IPO

dealer being required to buy

subscriptions to Grock Musk's terrible

AI chatbot. Um, they they're going to do

it anyway because they'll do anything it

takes. They'll take sure we'll buy your

shitty product for if you'll give us the

banks. Um, he's also asked them to

advertise on X was less insistent on

that request. Obviously, they're going

to all do it. Uh, that I'm not surprised

by. But I'm just curious, have you done

any polling on Elon now post, you know,

he's now going to be very wealthy again.

once again more wealthy than he was

before. How where is his polling? Have

you done much on on where he sits

because he's about to enter the

political spectrum again quite

significantly it looks like. I mean, I

still think that he has residual

favorability from Republicans who I

think have by and large forgotten his

well I was going to say the very big

public falling out that he had with

Trump that got very ugly very uh

quickly. Um that that all but seems to

have been kind of memory hold at this

point. Um but but there is still that

lingering negativity from Democrats. It

may not be as acute. I mean, I I have

not heard reports of like protests

outside Tesla dealerships in the way

that you had about a year ago. So, it

feels like the temperature has turned

down, but it is not as though anybody

has like converted back to liking him or

not liking him. Wherever you were a year

ago, you're probably still in about the

same place. So, when when you're a

Republican getting money from him, it's

worth it. Correct. Now, or is it a bad

thing? Because he lost in Wisconsin. He

lost a lot of his presence tends to

be a problem for some people. I think he

is not as much of a potent lightning rod

as he was a year ago when we were in the

midst of Doge being in the news every

single day, some new agency getting shut

down or somebody getting fired or or

something happening that was causing

>> causing some stir. you know, him showing

up in the White House, him in the White

House with one of his kids, you know,

like those we're that's not happening

anymore. And so I think him having less

him be he is less of a lightning rod

today than he was a year ago. So I I

think that would probably lessen any,

you know, downside to having him, but he

shouldn't act up again. Correct. Create

a

>> as last time I was on your show, I said

like less chainsaw, more Mars. And I

stick to it. I think to the extent that

he has spent the last year doing less

chainsaw and more Mars, I don't think

that it's necessarily won back anybody

from the left,

>> but I do think that the temperature has

been turned down around him to where

he's a little less

>> more Mars. That's what you got to do.

Build your rockets, I've said

that over and I think you were

absolutely right back then. All right,

Kristen, one more quick break. We'll be

back for wins and fails.

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That's joined me.com/pivot

code pivot. Okay, Kristen, let's hear

some wins and fails. You go first. All

right. Well, we're going to talk space.

Um, and this is a mine is a win and a

fail combined. A win is that as you and

I are recording probably right about uh

now, Americans are flying around the

backside of the moon. That feels like

the biggest possible win. The fact that

these that the rocket took off and it

was fine and it wound up working is

unbelievable. But the fail is the

toilets do not seem to be staying in

operation on this. This is a subject of

great interest to my daughters. Uh they

are they are like really really really

trying to keep up on the what is the

status of

>> the toilets on this uh Artemis. I think

Orion might actually be the name of like

the part that they are in. But uh so

it's both a win and a fail.

>> I think NASA has shined itself up a

little bit. It's always it's been sucked

away by Bezos and Musk, but I think NASA

feels kind of cool. I think their social

media is excellent. I think Victor

Victor the pilot is such a hunk like

like all of them are are and and all the

the whole team are amazing. I think

>> they have a great inspirational message.

I mean just every time you hear them

talk and it doesn't feel like hyper

media trained either. Again to what we

were talking about earlier with like it

just feels like you found genuinely

incredible people and are sending them

to do an incredible thing on behalf of

humanity.

>> Yeah, I agree. I think they they just

are doing flawless speaking of social

media. Flawless social media. I I

haven't seen one thing that I' The

pictures are beautiful. The the the

enthusiasm again, it doesn't feel cooked

in some fashion. The fail is the

continued sort of um

I know you, like you said, I'm not

clutching my pearls, but come on. I

think people are sick of this and I

think there's going to be a significant

backlash to politicians that look, I

think there's a real opportunity for

people to be funny and nice and, you

know, sort of more open-minded rather

than dunking dunking dunking. I I just

have this I think what Trump is doing is

is a step too far. And he I can't even

believe I'm saying that cuz I I'm never

that person who goes, "Oh, you're

kidding. Can you believe what he said?"

I always believe what he says cuz I

think he's like that. Um but I do think

people are tiring of it. And I think

even though they're sloughing it off,

they're not sloughing it there. You

know, gh that's him. I think there's

more. It's like I'm tired of hearing

this now. And I think there's a real

opportunity for politicians to make

people feel better. like I know in

political life in general and not but

and also not um do it in a stupid way

where you just pretend it's not

happening like that kind of thing. So I

do think that's been a real fail and I

do think it's pro it's a bigger problem

than people think. That's one. My win is

the Netflix documentary Dynasty the

Murdoch. Um it's about the Murdoch

Empire. I found out stuff about Ruben

Murdoch that was fascinating. I thought

it was incredibly Liz Garbas directed

it. I thought it was a terrific

documentary. I learned a lot about this

very I thought it was very fair to the

family at the same time. Um sad to

watch, you know, this kind of fall apart

and I'm endlessly fascinated by Rupert

Murdoch, but and you know, he's getting

he's getting on in years and everything,

but I do think it was a really

interesting documentary. Um and not just

cuz I'm it although I think I'm

spectacular in it. No, I'm kidding. No,

the people who are mostly who've done

all the reporting at the times um did an

amazing job and so I recommend it. I

recommend watching it. It's he's he's a

unique political figure as you know, but

I learned a lot from the documentary. I

Have you seen it?

>> I have not.

>> I will say the last movie that I watched

that referenced Rubert Murdoch was I

rewatched The Devil Wears Prada from

2006 in preparation for, you know, the

the rebirth, the two too devil, too

furious that's coming up. Uh, and he he

is mentioned there's a there's a scene

where uh it's it's when Meyer Street's

character Miranda Priestley is sort of

her her husband is divorcing her and she

says like Rupert Murdoch should cut me a

check for all the papers that I've sold

for him like assuming that like she

fuels you know all these gossip gossip

rag headlines and so any I haven't seen

the movie you were talking about but I

did see Devil War's product.

>> Yeah, it's it's a sing it's a series a

couple of episodes. It's really good.

Uh, I I shouldn't say this, but I'm I'm

in the Devil's Produ

just briefly.

>> Shh.

>> Oh, tell.

>> Yeah, it's like I'm sure it's blinking.

You'll see it, but uh they did a lot of

uh it was reported already and it the

reports were true.

>> I'm I don't know if they've cut me, but

I I'm there. I get to play myself a lot,

Kristen, besides uh in uh on billboards

in Times Square. Uh but I actually, for

some reason, I'm the go-to person now.

If they have AI in the plot, they bring

in carousel. It's like Wolf Blitzer.

>> So, there is I have I have one funny

story about this. Um, you know that

movie Edge of Tomorrow or it used to be

called like or like Lived, Die I Repeat

is what they rebranded. I'm obsessed

with this movie.

>> Blunt and Tom Cruz. Fantastic movie.

>> At the beginning there's a scene where

it's Jake Tapper interviewing and it's a

panel where it's like Olivier Knox from

>> I think he was at the post at that time.

Um, Kiki Mlan, Democratic strategist,

and then Tom Cruz is in the middle. But

like that scene never happened. They

edited him in and they edited Tom Cruz

on top of Ross Stout.

>> Ah, perfect. I like it. I'm there for

it.

>> So, cuz I was I was watching the movie

and I was like, was like, who is the

Republican that was on set that day that

got edited out to be Tom Cruz? Was it

me? I don't think so.

>> Oh, yeah. That would be harder. Wow.

Okay. Good to know. I love that movie.

Anyway, we want to hear from you. Send

us your questions about business, tech,

or whatever's on your mind. and go to

nymag.com/pivot to submit a question for

this show or call 855-51 pivot. Okay,

that's the show. Again, thank you for

joining me today, Kristen. Everyone

should watch her bowling. She also

appears on in on CNN and she's does

wonderful stories in the pieces in the

New York Times which I learn a lot from

just she lets the voters speak and

actually it's really interesting to hear

them because it's a little more um

complex and that's why it's great and

that's important to understand the

complexity of all this. Anyway, uh,

thanks for listening to Pivot. Be sure

to like and subscribe to our YouTube

channel. We'll be back on Friday. Thank

you, Kristen. Thank you, Karen. Thanks

for listening to Pivot from New York

Magazine and Vox Media. You can

subscribe to the magazine at

nymag.com/pod.

We'll be back later this week for

another breakdown of all things tech and

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