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Trump to FLOOD the Market on THIS Date (Most Aren’t Ready)

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Trump to FLOOD the Market on THIS Date (Most Aren’t Ready)

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968 segments

0:00

In just a [snorts] few weeks, the

0:01

largest collision in American stock

0:04

market history begins. And no, there's

0:06

not a crash. There is not even a

0:08

bailout. It is literally a collision.

0:11

Trillions in hidden money is about to

0:13

hit the market. And 90% of investors

0:16

have absolutely no idea this is coming.

0:18

And this collision will create

0:20

millionaires, watch behind me, and

0:23

destroy portfolios that aren't

0:25

positioned correctly at the same time.

0:27

So, I'm going to show you the exact

0:29

timeline, the five waves of capital

0:31

flows under the six sectors. I believe

0:35

that will either explode or implode

0:38

depending on just one thing that most

0:42

people aren't watching, the price of

0:44

oil. And here's what's really happening.

0:46

This collision is not just about AI or

0:51

SpaceX or any of that stuff that's been

0:52

talked about in the media. It's AI debt

0:56

crashing into a geopolitical oil shock

1:00

and it's happening at the exact moments

1:02

when central banks around the world are

1:05

splitting into two completely opposite

1:07

strategies we have not seen for decades.

1:09

Think about it this way. America and

1:11

Europe, which where I am right now, are

1:14

making opposite bets right now. America

1:16

is betting on cheap oil and low interest

1:19

rates to keep the party going. Europe is

1:22

betting on expensive money and higher

1:25

interest rates, and one of them is

1:27

catastrophically wrong. The question

1:29

that'll decide your portfolio's future

1:32

is this. What happens when America's bet

1:35

on cheap oil and Europe's bet on

1:37

expensive money and high interest rates?

1:40

Well, one of them has to be dead wrong,

1:43

you see. And I thought long and hard

1:45

about making this video because I'm on

1:46

holiday, as you can see, and I thought

1:48

this is a little bit information dense.

1:50

This is a little bit more than people

1:52

really want to hear, but I think you are

1:56

up for it and I believe you deserve to

1:58

understand this. And let me know whether

2:00

you think you deserve to really

2:01

understand how the market works the way

2:03

Wall Street sees it. Just put a deserve

2:06

in the chat and and let me show you the

2:08

two possible futures here and why you

2:10

must understand both and why you need to

2:13

be positioned for both. So the world

2:15

number one here that we have is the Wall

2:17

Street world. You know, the place of

2:19

greed is good. And Wall Street thinks

2:22

the Iran war is going to keep dragging

2:25

on. They think oil goes to $150 a

2:29

barrel. That's Goldman Sachs and lots of

2:31

economists saying. And that means

2:33

inflation will spiral out of control and

2:36

it'll go to the moon. It means the Fed

2:38

is forced to increase interest rates. It

2:41

means a recession, a stock crash, a

2:44

housing freeze, and also your 401k takes

2:48

a really ugly beating. Then we have the

2:50

second world. This is the um orange

2:53

world of President Trump. President

2:55

Trump's strategy is the exact opposite.

2:58

End the Iran war and if he pulls it off,

3:01

oil producing countries will flood the

3:04

market again with cheap oil. Although

3:05

it'll take some time for that to happen.

3:08

Cheap oil will kill inflation at the

3:10

source and it won't crush the economy

3:13

because everything will get cheaper to

3:15

produce and ship. And that means the

3:17

Fed, the brand new Fed chair we have,

3:20

doesn't need to raise rates. It means

3:22

stocks will rip higher. It means the

3:24

housing market will recover. It means

3:26

the economy booms and everything is as

3:29

wonderful and blue as it is behind me.

3:31

But here is what makes this so

3:32

dangerous. These two worlds are

3:35

completely mutually exclusive. You're

3:36

kind of a bit of both. It's a bit like

3:38

saying, "I'm a bit pregnant." You see,

3:40

it just doesn't work that way.

3:42

[laughter]

3:43

So, one side's going to get rich and the

3:45

other side's going to get destroyed

3:47

depending on what side you're on. Very

3:49

little middle ground here. So, if you're

3:51

positioned wrong for the wrong world,

3:54

your portfolio gets cut in half. If

3:56

you're positioned for the right one,

3:58

this is the greatest buying opportunity

4:00

since 2020, in my humble opinion. Now, I

4:03

know what you're thinking. This sounds

4:05

like geopolitics. What does this have to

4:07

do with my money? This is about your

4:10

401k. This is about your retirement.

4:12

This is about the funds inside it

4:14

because they're already loaded with

4:16

stocks that'll either boom or bust

4:17

depending on oil prices. This is about

4:20

your mortgage rate. If your rates go up,

4:22

your monthly payments could jump by

4:24

hundreds of dollars. And maybe you got a

4:25

fixed interest mortgage. Well done. But

4:28

it'll still affect a lot of people. And

4:30

if these rates stay low, well, you could

4:32

refinance. You could save thousands.

4:35

This is about whether your portfolio

4:37

survives or literally thrives over the

4:39

next 12 to 18 months. But there is good

4:41

news here. The framework I'm about to

4:44

teach you works no matter who is

4:47

president. It's not about politics. It's

4:49

about understanding what cheap oil does

4:52

versus expensive oil does to every

4:55

single asset class. And I promise you,

4:56

you'll understand that by the end of

4:57

this. In fact, I think what I should do,

4:59

I should put together a workbook that

5:01

puts together all the information I'm

5:02

about to throw at you. And you can

5:04

download that for free. Uh we'll put a

5:06

link down below. felix.org/

5:09

boom. Shall we do that? That sounds

5:11

optimistic, doesn't it? There's a link

5:12

down below. Download it for it's

5:13

completely free of charge. So once you

5:15

learn this, you can use it forever. It's

5:18

a skill. You see, I call this framework

5:20

the peace to prosperity pip pipeline.

5:23

PPP. three forces, five waves and I

5:26

think six sectors if I remember

5:28

correctly. So what are the waves? There

5:30

are five of them. The order that capital

5:32

moves through the economy is what's the

5:34

important thing here. The six sectors is

5:36

where the money flows and where it

5:38

disappears. And you know all of this if

5:41

you stick around for the rest of the

5:42

video here. So you already understand

5:44

the collision, right? You understand the

5:46

forces smashing into each other, the oil

5:48

crisis, the rate split between America

5:51

and Europe. You understand there is

5:54

massive AI debt floating about that no

5:56

one's really talking about and you

5:58

understand why this is different from

5:59

anything that we've seen in decades. But

6:02

here's the thing. Understanding the

6:03

framework isn't enough. You need to

6:06

actually position for it and there is a

6:09

very specific time window to do that in.

6:11

Let me take you back to 2020. 2020 2021.

6:14

Remember when Airbnb went public?

6:16

Coinbase went public. Roblox listed.

6:19

Ribian listed. It was sort of the golden

6:20

summer. Dozens of high- growth companies

6:23

were flooding the market. And most

6:25

people thought it was just chaos. But it

6:28

wasn't chaos. It was a wealth creation

6:30

event for people who were positioned

6:31

right. And in every major market moment

6:34

like this, investors split into two

6:36

groups. Group one, you got the watchers.

6:38

They see the opportunity. They

6:40

understand the framework, but they wait

6:42

for more confirmation. I'm not quite

6:45

sure. I'm uncertain. So they watch the

6:47

moves happen on CNBC and then they jump

6:49

in too late when everybody else made the

6:51

money already and maybe they capture

6:53

some of the upside but they get in after

6:56

the risk is already priced in massive

6:57

flow. They're always a step behind. The

7:00

second group I call them the builders.

7:03

They understand the framework before the

7:06

crowd really catches on. They position

7:08

earlier. They size their risk right.

7:10

They get their triggers right. And when

7:12

the signal hits, they move very very

7:14

decisively and they capture maybe three

7:17

times or five times returns while the

7:20

watchers are still thinking about it. So

7:22

which group are you? Because your choice

7:25

right now in the next 30 days will

7:27

determine which returns you capture over

7:29

the next 5 years. And this is literally

7:31

about more than portfolio returns. It's

7:33

about positioning yourself and your

7:35

family for prosperity. not gambling, not

7:37

panic, just understanding the playbook

7:40

of Wall Street so you can act with

7:41

confidence. And for investors serious

7:44

about capturing this opportunity, let me

7:46

know if you want to capture this. Put a

7:47

C or a capture in the comments down

7:49

below. For you, those of you who are

7:51

writing that in the chat there, I'm

7:53

going to teach you this. I'm going to

7:55

run a workshop for you, and it's called

7:57

how to turn the IPO summer into a

8:00

five-year wealth machine. We're going to

8:02

look at much more detail than we can

8:05

look at here in a 20-minute YouTube

8:06

video because I'll be teaching you live

8:08

for free for two hours. And my goal is

8:11

to build a huge number of you into

8:14

builders who are positioning for the

8:17

right move, who are positioning to make

8:19

the next five years, the five years that

8:21

turned their investment strategy into

8:24

something that got them to their

8:25

freedom. So, you can register that for

8:28

completely for free at

8:29

wealthmachine.org.

8:31

uh the spots will fill up. There are

8:32

10,000 of them. It sounds like a lot,

8:34

but I can tell you they're going to go.

8:36

So, if you want to be one of those

8:37

people who understand the framework, who

8:40

understand how to position, who

8:41

understand how to benefit from this, and

8:43

I'm not saying, by the way, that you

8:44

should run out and buy all these these

8:46

IPOs. I'm not saying that at all. So,

8:48

we're running this on coming Sunday on

8:50

Father's Day. And you might be thinking,

8:52

"Hang on, hang on. I was planning on

8:54

sitting on a sofa over there with a

8:55

beer." Um, that's fine. You can do that,

8:57

too. But if you actually want to build a

9:01

legacy, if you actually want to build

9:03

the freedom for yourself and your

9:06

family, show up for yourself. Not for

9:08

me, but for yourself. So, write wealth

9:10

machine in the comments. If you're going

9:11

to sign up, you're going to be there.

9:12

Don't ask me for a replay. There won't

9:14

be one. So, let's get deeper into the

9:17

framework. And this is the part that

9:18

will change how you think about

9:20

investing forever. And then on Sunday,

9:22

we're going to give you the tools. We're

9:24

going to give you much much more level

9:27

skills than we can cover here in a short

9:28

video. So this pipeline that I was

9:30

talking about, peace to prosperity

9:32

pipeline has three parts. Three forces

9:34

that work together kind of like

9:36

dominoes. The first one is oil. The

9:39

second one is the interest rate

9:41

divergence we're seeing. And the third

9:43

is what I call the confidence collision.

9:46

When one of these dominoes falls, the

9:48

other follow in a very predictable

9:50

sequence. And once you see the sequence,

9:52

you can be ahead and position ahead of

9:55

it. So let me run you through these one

9:57

by one and I'll ask my team to put some,

9:58

you know, text on the on the screen

10:00

here. So this makes a bit more coherent

10:02

for you because this is obviously a

10:03

little a little little off the cuff

10:04

here. But let me show you how this

10:07

works. It's really quite simple. When a

10:09

major oil producing region

10:12

exits a conflict, so the Middle East

10:15

stops the conflict, we can ship again

10:17

through the straight of Hammuz. Supply

10:19

floods the market. When supply floods

10:21

the market, oil prices do what? Yeah,

10:23

they collapse. Correct. When oil prices

10:25

collapse, the cost of everything drops.

10:28

Because oil is baked into every single

10:31

thing you consume. People think about

10:34

oil is gas prices, right? It's

10:36

completely wrong. Oil is in your

10:38

shipping costs. Everything you buy on

10:40

Amazon gets shipped using oil. Oil is in

10:43

your food. Tractors run on diesel.

10:45

Fertilizer is made from petroleum which

10:47

I think is absurd but it is the way it

10:49

is. Oil is in your plastics, your carry

10:52

bags, your chemicals, your packaging,

10:54

your manufacturing. And when oil drops

10:56

30%, the price of nearly everything else

10:58

drops with it with a lag, maybe a two to

11:02

three months lag. And again, this isn't

11:04

something I'm making up here. It's

11:05

happened before. Every single time, look

11:07

at the end of the Gulf War, 1991, right?

11:10

Oil dropped, the economy boommed within

11:12

6 months. When the Iran nuclear deal was

11:15

signed in 2015, oil crashed from 100 to

11:18

50. Consumer spending went through the

11:20

roof. Every major Middle East peace deal

11:24

or real ceasefire has triggered an oil

11:27

price drop within 90 days. And history

11:29

doesn't always repeat exactly, but the

11:31

pattern repeats. Peace equals cheap

11:33

energy. Cheap energy equals economic

11:36

growth every single time. And when oil

11:39

drops, it doesn't just save you money at

11:41

the gas pump. Airlines suddenly become

11:43

wildly profitable. Fuel is their biggest

11:45

cost, right? Shipping companies see

11:47

their margins explodes. Factories can

11:49

produce cheaper goods. Farmers pay less

11:51

for fertilizers and diesel. And all of

11:53

that saving flows down to consumers as

11:56

lower prices and into Wall Street as

11:59

higher profits. Isn't that wonderful? So

12:01

it flows back to us as shareholders.

12:03

It's like a waterfall. Oil is at the

12:05

top. The savings cascade down through

12:07

the entire economy is what is the

12:10

waterfall. So you get initially energy

12:13

companies, they get repriced almost

12:15

instantly. Then transportation companies

12:18

and we've been making good money on

12:19

transportation in the last few weeks.

12:21

Consumer prices come down about 3 months

12:24

later. Manufacturing costs come down

12:26

about 3 to 6 months later. That's your

12:29

uh little cascade. Then again, most

12:31

investors only see the first wave,

12:34

right? They think about

12:36

gas prices. And here's where this gets

12:38

interesting for you as a retail

12:40

investor. You know, Wall Street calls us

12:42

the dumb money, which kind of irritates

12:43

us, or the no nothing money. That's an

12:45

actual Warren Buffett quote, by the way.

12:47

He calls us the no nothing money, which

12:49

is kind of interesting. We we're

12:51

changing that, right? Because you're

12:52

you're going to show up for yourself on

12:54

on Sunday and build that wealth machine

12:56

for yourself and your family. So, Wall

12:58

Street's big banks have their models set

13:01

to just one scenario and that is war

13:03

continues. Oil stays expensive. Why are

13:05

they saying that? Well, most wars

13:07

involving Israel just seem to continue

13:09

forever and ever for whatever profit

13:11

reasons. Um, and their rate forecasts

13:15

assume high oil. Their sector

13:17

allocations assume high oil prices.

13:19

Their risk models assume high oil

13:21

prices. Every single model at Goldman's,

13:24

JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley is built on

13:26

this high oil price, $100 to $150. Now,

13:30

what if oil drops to 60 bucks or 70

13:33

bucks a barrel? Well, the models break.

13:35

And when the models break, they're

13:37

forced to do what? They're forced to

13:40

sell a ton of stuff and they're forced

13:42

to buy a ton of stuff. And it creates

13:44

violent fast moves in the markets. And

13:47

this is your advantage over Wall Street.

13:49

Big money can't pivot that quickly. They

13:52

run on quarterly rebalancing cycles, the

13:54

fund managers, and so on. So, it means

13:56

when oil drops, they'll be 60 to 90 days

14:00

behind the move. Now, not the hedge

14:02

funds, they'll do it instantly and we'll

14:04

be able to see that again. Show out on

14:05

Sunday. I'll show you how you can see

14:07

that. But the funds will be late. The

14:10

retail investors, well, you can move in

14:12

hours. You don't need a committee

14:14

meeting, right? You don't need a board

14:15

approval. You just move. So, the

14:18

institutions are like like an aircraft

14:21

carrier. Massive, powerful, but they

14:23

take five miles to make a turn. You're

14:25

that speedboat, right? So you can use

14:28

that, use your maneuverability. Now the

14:32

second force, and this is really the

14:35

first ever I've seen. It's

14:36

unprecedented. For the first time in

14:39

modern financial history, America and

14:41

Europe are running opposite

14:44

monetary policies during exactly the

14:46

same events. America is holding interest

14:49

rates steady. The Fed is resisting the

14:51

pressure to raise them because they know

14:52

it would kill the economy. The

14:54

apparachnics in Europe however have just

14:57

raised their rates. The European Central

15:00

Bank which is the the Fed of Europe

15:02

increased the economy even though the

15:04

economy is already shaking and

15:06

shrinking. And let me explain just

15:08

briefly as I am in Europe here why

15:09

Europe is in serious trouble. And again

15:11

there's an opportunity in that. Europe

15:12

raised interest rates into a shrinking

15:15

economy. If GDP is actually going

15:17

backwards manufacturing is in a

15:20

recession across Germany, France and

15:21

Italy. And the only reason it doesn't

15:23

look that bad is because they're

15:24

spending spending billions and billions

15:27

on the war in Ukraine. Consumer spending

15:29

is collapsing. People are cutting back

15:31

on everything from restaurants to

15:33

vacations um except for me obviously. So

15:36

why would they raise rates when the

15:37

economy is already weak because they

15:39

kind of have no other tool. Europe can't

15:42

control the oil supply. They import

15:44

almost all of their energy and Europe

15:47

can't print the world's reserve currency

15:49

either. That's the US dollar. Europe

15:52

can't negotiate a Middle East peace.

15:54

They have basically no diplomatic

15:56

leverage. It's true. I'm sorry, my

15:59

French friends, but it is true. And the

16:01

only thing Europe can really do is raise

16:04

interest rates and hope that somehow

16:06

slows down inflation without completely

16:08

choking the economy. But it's like

16:10

trying to stop a flood by building a

16:12

damn kind of other paper. It'll hold for

16:15

a while, but eventually the pressure is

16:17

going to break through it. America has a

16:19

very different playbook. You see,

16:21

Trump's strategy with the Fed chair is

16:23

this. I appoint someone who will resist

16:25

rate hikes, even if inflation goes up

16:27

for a while. And the logic is actually

16:29

quite simple. And actually, I agree with

16:31

him or not. Don't kill inflation by

16:33

crushing the economy. Kill inflation by

16:35

increasing supply. Flood the market with

16:38

cheap energy. It's a supply side fix

16:41

instead of a demand side fix. Now,

16:43

Europe produces virtually no oil. the

16:46

Brits have just decided not to drill for

16:47

anymore because I don't know there could

16:49

be a some sort of you know crab or some

16:53

sort of I don't know fish or something

16:55

damaged by it or maybe they just don't

16:56

want to be wealthy again because it

16:57

would make them uncomfortable. So

16:59

instead of making everything more

17:00

expensive, which is what the Europeans

17:02

are doing to slow spending, the US is

17:04

trying to make everything cheaper. But

17:06

the Fed, you know, the guys who set

17:08

interest rates, those old white people

17:10

who sit around the room and smoke cigars

17:12

and drink sherry, at least that's what I

17:13

imagine they do. Um, they just had a

17:16

vote on interest rates. It's the most

17:18

divided vote since 30 years. Eight

17:22

people voted to hold rates steady. Three

17:25

people wanted to raise rates. They're

17:27

the your kamicazi guys. And one guy

17:29

wanted to cut rates. He's just, you

17:31

know, high. And that 8 to4 split tells

17:34

you everything. The Fed is being pulled

17:35

in every direction at once. And the hold

17:37

the line strategy is barely winning. At

17:41

the same time, the Fed started doing

17:44

something they're not telling you about.

17:45

They're printing money. Yeah, their

17:48

balance sheet is growing. It's back

17:50

above 6.7 trillion. But then they're not

17:52

calling it money printing or quantitive

17:54

easing or QE like in the past. Um but

17:57

they're still doing it anyway. And to me

17:59

it doesn't matter what it's called. If

18:01

it looks like QE or quacks like QE, you

18:03

know, you know, you know they're

18:04

printing money. Again, why does this

18:06

matter? Well, think about this. America

18:09

holds rates, Europe raises them. Why

18:11

should you care? This is kind of

18:13

complex, right? Well, when rates diverge

18:17

dramatically between the two major

18:19

economies in the world, capital moves a

18:23

lot of it. Money flows towards higher

18:26

returns and stability. If US rates stay

18:29

low and the economy grows, money pours

18:31

into America from all over the world

18:32

because the stock market's going to boom

18:34

and everyone's going to want to buy it

18:34

and it's going to be wonderful. You're

18:36

going to make so much money. If Europe

18:38

is hiking rates, but the economy is

18:40

shrinking, smart money leaves Europe.

18:43

And the last time the US and Europe

18:45

diverged like this was 2014. What

18:48

happened? Massive capital inflow into

18:51

the United States of America. The dollar

18:54

surged. European stocks underperformed

18:56

American stocks for three years. It's

18:58

true, my European friends. And if you

19:00

owned a bunch of international funds

19:02

that are heavy on Europe or those, you

19:04

know, global whatever funds some of you

19:06

people own, you got crushed. This trade,

19:10

this interest rate divergence trade is

19:12

one of the most powerful and most

19:13

predictable setups in investing I've

19:15

seen basically in my life. It's

19:17

happening right now. So, let's talk

19:19

about there was a third force, wasn't

19:21

it? This is going to be long, isn't it?

19:23

Um, I hope you've got a got a nice

19:25

enjoying the view at least behind me.

19:27

Okay, the third force is the one that

19:28

turns all of this into an opportunity.

19:30

And you're here for the opportunity, I

19:32

imagine. What most people don't know

19:33

about Wall Street is this. Institutional

19:35

investors don't actually make

19:36

independent decisions. They follow

19:39

models, computer models that tell them

19:41

how to allocate their money. And right

19:43

now, every major bank's model assumes

19:45

three things. War continues, oil stays

19:48

above 100 bucks, and the Fed might raise

19:51

rates. Three assumptions, right? And

19:54

what's the first three letters of

19:56

assumptions? Yeah, that's what what

19:57

assumptions make out of you. They could

19:59

all three all three of those could be

20:01

wrong. And when every big investor is

20:02

positioned for the same potentially

20:04

wrong outcome and the opposite happens,

20:06

the market is going to move a lot like

20:09

really really a lot because these funds

20:12

are then forced to rebalance. They have

20:13

to sell what they bought and they have

20:15

to buy what they sold and then all do at

20:18

the same time and that creates massive

20:19

fast price swings both up and down

20:22

depending on what you own. The last time

20:24

we saw this was early 2020. Nobody

20:26

expected the recovery that fast of 20,

20:29

you know, the COVID nonsense. But the

20:31

stimulus was so massive, rates went to

20:33

zero and the market ripped massively

20:35

higher. Maybe you remember that. It was

20:36

a glorious time. And that recovery

20:38

minted more millionaires than any

20:41

12-month period in market history.

20:43

Seriously. So, this is why I'm making

20:45

this video because I think it is that

20:47

important. Now, the money wasn't made by

20:49

people who saw the crash. It was made by

20:51

people who positioned for the recovery.

20:55

Now, I started off with an illusion to

20:58

AI and AI money and AI debt. You see,

21:01

there's 1.8 trillion in hidden AI debt

21:05

out there. And that debt is not

21:08

automatically a disaster. If rates go

21:11

up, so this war continues forever and

21:14

the Fed just has to do it because

21:15

inflation goes to five and six and 7%.

21:18

That debt, that 1.8 a trillion of debt

21:21

that has, you know, issued by by Meta

21:24

and Amazon and Microsoft and all those

21:27

tech darlings, it becomes incredibly

21:29

expensive. Companies that borrowed to

21:32

build these data centers will get

21:33

crushed pretty hard. It's like 2008, the

21:36

mortgage crisis. Debt that seemed fine

21:38

when rates were low becomes toxics when

21:41

rates spike. But if rates stay low, you

21:45

know, our peace scenario, which is

21:47

hopefully what we're going to get for

21:48

the sake of everybody in that region,

21:50

then those same 1.8 trillion in debt, it

21:53

stays cheap. It doesn't matter. Those AI

21:55

bets could actually pay off and

21:58

companies will survive. The AI

22:00

investments will generate some revenue.

22:02

Same debt, same companies, completely

22:04

different outcome depending on just what

22:07

war, peace, and interest rates. Let's

22:09

tie all this together because putting it

22:11

all together is the key insight really

22:13

of this entire monologue lecture here,

22:16

right? Scenario A, peace. Peace means

22:18

you get cheap oil, you get lower

22:20

inflation, the Fed will cut, AI debt

22:23

stays manageable, the economy will grow,

22:25

stocks rip higher, right? Peace, good.

22:28

War, not so much. Why? The war

22:30

continues. Doesn't need enough to

22:32

escalate. It just has to continue. You

22:33

know, the occasional drone flying into

22:35

an oil tanker, that's that's about

22:36

enough to make it uninsurable. Oil will

22:38

spike, inflation will explode, the Fed

22:40

will eventually be forced to raise

22:42

interest rates, the AI debt bubble

22:44

implodes, you get a massive recession

22:46

and tons of stocks crash, especially

22:48

your favorite tech stocks. Very, very

22:50

little middle ground. I said in the

22:52

beginning, you can't be a little bit

22:54

pregnant. This is basically one of those

22:55

scenarios. You either or you aren't,

22:56

right? But a lot of Wall Street is very

22:58

cautious in their position for the bad

23:00

scenario. So if we do get a peace deal

23:03

and it isn't just a piece of paper but

23:05

actually the shooting more or less stops

23:07

what happens? Massive massive

23:10

opportunity for you. So let me walk you

23:13

through this uh six sectors I think I

23:15

said right? Let's see if we can uh we

23:17

can put them all together. So let me

23:19

show you the order first of all that the

23:21

money flows through the economy. The

23:22

first place the money goes is energy.

23:24

Energy gets repriced and that's the

23:26

fastest move that happens almost

23:27

overnight. could happen on Monday or

23:29

Tuesday or or whenever oil and gas

23:32

stocks repric immediately. Energy

23:34

futures could collapse. So the price of

23:35

oil comes down, gas goes down, pipeline

23:38

companies adjust their forecast. And

23:39

that's the wave that makes the

23:41

headlines. But it is not where the big

23:43

money is made. If that happens, I'll

23:46

take profits on our oil and services,

23:49

oil and gas services and and exit that.

23:52

And it's already set up. It's automated.

23:54

Again, something we'll cover on Sunday

23:55

if you join me at Wealth Machine. The

23:59

second wave is transport, airlines,

24:03

shipping companies, trucking firms. They

24:05

see their costs drop, and we've been

24:07

piling into these gently the last few

24:10

weeks. If their costs go down, but

24:12

they're still charging the same prices

24:15

that they quoted a few weeks ago, what

24:18

happens? the gap between the lower costs

24:21

and the price that they're already

24:22

charging expands. So what's this? It's

24:25

called a margin explosion and it's

24:28

profit. It is just pure profit. So it's

24:31

very good for them. The wave number

24:36

um is the consumer. Gas prices drop.

24:39

People have more money in their pockets.

24:41

They feel like spending more. They start

24:42

spending on things they've been putting

24:44

off. restaurants, vacations, new

24:45

appliances, retail, restaurants, travel,

24:48

they all go through the freaking roof.

24:50

And this is the wave where Main Street

24:53

starts to feel the benefit. Wave numero

24:56

qual is manufacturing. This takes a

25:00

little bit longer, 3 to 6 months, I

25:02

would say. Lower costs for manufacturing

25:05

means suddenly it's cheaper to make

25:08

things in good old America. So, US

25:10

manufacturing becomes more competitive

25:12

again. So you get the industrial giants,

25:15

the caterpillars, the John Deers, they

25:17

start to go back up and then when

25:21

everybody thinks this is all over and

25:23

everyone's forgotten about the peace,

25:24

but 6 months later the following

25:26

happens. Lower inflation means the Fed

25:29

can finally cut rates or at least they

25:31

can hold them at a lower rate for a

25:33

while. When rates drop, when mortgage

25:35

rates drop, housing explodes, people buy

25:37

homes, refinance, spend money on

25:38

renovations, autos, big ticket

25:41

purchases, everything that requires a

25:43

loan, it goes only one way. Most

25:47

investors see wave one and then they

25:49

panic sell the energy stocks, right? The

25:51

real money, the generational wealth is

25:53

made in waves three, four, and five.

25:56

That's where the patients investor wins.

25:59

And you might be thinking, how do I know

26:00

what wave? And that's a great question.

26:02

I will answer that for you on um it's

26:05

actually a good exercise say there's a

26:06

little wall behind me. I'll answer that

26:08

for you in great detail on Sunday by

26:10

showing you the the full system and I'm

26:12

not holding that back from you here.

26:14

It's just when these videos get too long

26:16

um YouTube will stop showing it to

26:17

people and my goal is to reach as many

26:19

people as possible so we can get into

26:21

financial nana rather than um you know

26:24

FOMO buying the latest thing. But I did

26:28

promise you I'll give you some sectors.

26:29

So let me let me walk you through the

26:31

sectors here to make sure you will

26:33

really get away here with with more

26:35

value than you came for. [laughter]

26:37

Right? So if we get the peace deal, the

26:40

traditional oil and gas stocks could

26:41

drop 25 to 40%. So anyone who's very

26:44

heavily invested in energy gets crushed.

26:47

Now the infrastructure companies, the

26:50

energy infrastructure companies, the

26:51

guys who build the pipelines and the

26:52

terminals and so on, they could actually

26:54

be fined because first of all more oil

26:57

and gas flows through their pipelines as

26:59

a lot of infrastructure in the Middle

27:01

East that has to get repaired. Uh

27:02

because when you turn those facilities

27:04

off and much of the Middle East has

27:06

stopped pumping, it takes months to

27:09

maintain and get them back online. Also,

27:10

some of our stuff's got damaged so it

27:12

needs to all be checked out. So the

27:14

smart players

27:16

I would I argue stay in energy and again

27:18

I'm not a financial adviser. I'm not

27:19

telling you what to buy but potentially

27:21

stay in energy but shift from the

27:23

producers to the infrastructure. And I

27:25

actually did that about nine months ago

27:26

but um sometimes understood a little

27:28

early to things too. The risk is this.

27:31

If the war escalates and oil spikes,

27:33

energy stocks will continue to rip

27:35

higher for a while. But really high oil

27:38

prices eventually kill demand and

27:40

eventually trigger recessions. So, you

27:43

don't want to be in oil stocks forever.

27:47

Yeah, just a little bit of of a hint

27:49

there. The second sector to look at is

27:51

is transportation. Airlines essentially

27:54

are leveraged bets on oil prices. A

27:56

terrible thing to own an airline stock.

27:57

I um I I know some people in the airline

28:00

industry and I always shake my head

28:01

about why they do what they do. It makes

28:03

absolutely no sense for anybody to fly

28:04

you anywhere. It's a terrible business

28:06

model. Think about it this way. It's the

28:08

only thing in the world where you put a

28:10

product out and somebody buys it and

28:14

you're losing a lot of money because if

28:15

you only sell one's seat, even if it's a

28:18

first class seat in the plane, you're

28:19

losing a ton of money for that plane to

28:21

fly empty. And then once it's full,

28:23

you'll still have people who want to buy

28:24

your product, but you can't supply them

28:26

because now you put on another plane,

28:27

you're going to take that massive risk

28:28

again. It's just a weird business model.

28:30

It makes no sense. But anyway, fuel is

28:32

basically their biggest expense. So if

28:34

oil stays high, their margins get

28:36

destroyed. Um, but if all drops,

28:39

airlines could be a glorious

28:40

opportunity, as will be most of

28:42

transportation. H how do you find out

28:45

jet fuel futures if you watch that sort

28:47

of thing? You probably don't because you

28:48

actually have a social life and friends,

28:50

unlike me, which is why I'm standing

28:51

here on my own. [laughter]

28:54

Um, but yeah, tell me if this is

28:56

valuable. Tell me this is too much in in

28:57

the in the comments down below. Just

28:58

write valuable or too much and I will I

29:00

will adjust my my output in future. Uh,

29:03

but I can't stop myself because I

29:04

promised you six sectors and we're only

29:06

two in, right? So, let let's do the next

29:08

one. It's tech. It's AI. It's the big

29:10

one, right? The one where you're all all

29:12

invested. So, higher rates. Um, the debt

29:16

that these guys have just piled up to

29:18

build the data centers will kill them. I

29:20

mean, not literally kill them, but it'll

29:21

kill the stock prices for quite a while,

29:23

which is why some of these amazing

29:24

companies are currently on on sale. If

29:26

you're wondering why M Stanley, by the

29:28

way, calls this the AI subprime.

29:32

That makes you sleep better at night,

29:34

doesn't it? So, what's the opportunity?

29:37

If the war ends, rates go down, it's the

29:40

greatest tech buying opportunity since

29:42

probably 2022. How do you know which

29:44

one's good, which one's bad? Well, you

29:45

could look at the balance sheet, which

29:46

is incredibly boring, operating cash

29:48

flow, that sort of thing. You can look

29:50

up in the Winston app if you like. Or

29:52

you can just look up where the

29:53

institutional money is flowing, which

29:54

is, I think, the the easier way of

29:55

answering it. And and again, I'll teach

29:57

you that on Sunday. Wealthmachine.org or

30:00

is the link to grab yourself that free

30:01

ticket to that. And then sector four is

30:04

is is you you the the American consumer

30:08

high oil um your spending will collapse

30:10

because if you pay four or five bucks a

30:12

gallon, tell me actually how much do you

30:14

pay a gallon of of of gas? Put in the

30:16

comments down below. Anyway, it'll it'll

30:17

it'll dent your your other spending. And

30:19

the retail has priced a lot of that in.

30:21

But we're just starting to see that

30:23

appperal for example which is uh you

30:25

know g stuff is is actually peing its it

30:29

sort of head above the above the the

30:32

cliff. So there might be some

30:33

opportunity there coming up. So when the

30:35

rates come down, the gas prices come

30:37

down, you're going to go out and you're

30:39

going to eat more, you're going to

30:39

travel more, you're going to improve

30:40

your home, you're going to buy a new

30:42

home, you're going to spend stuff on

30:43

things you didn't particularly need when

30:44

really you should just be investing the

30:45

money, but that's a different story. Uh

30:47

so there could be some real opportunity

30:49

there. And then sector five. And then

30:51

there's one more. I promise you. Real

30:53

estate. Higher rates. It's a shed share.

30:56

Lower rates. Oh, a cat just has just

30:58

come out here. Very nice little little

31:00

kitty. Um, can I show you the kitty?

31:02

Maybe I can. Hang on. Very important.

31:05

Can you see the kitty? Yeah, there she

31:07

is. Pretty. Hey, sorry we had to

31:09

interrupt this program because a cat

31:10

walked past you. Like, this guy is a

31:12

lunatic, isn't he? Um, yes. Certifiable.

31:15

I've been told that many times. Um, we

31:17

sort of embrace the madness around here.

31:19

We saw some of the commercial real

31:21

estate popping up last week and doing

31:23

quite nicely. Uh even though office

31:25

buildings are empty, nobody wants to go

31:26

there and landlords that are falling.

31:28

It's just because we're thinking or Wall

31:30

Street's thinking rather the worst's

31:32

behind us. We might get some peace. We

31:33

might get interest rates that come down

31:35

a little bit more in which case

31:36

everything is going to be fine and

31:37

there'll be a bonanza. So again,

31:39

something to watch for. I think it could

31:42

be a glorious opportunity. Commercial

31:44

REITs. Seriously, the stuff that was

31:46

just complete toxic garbage till a few

31:49

weeks ago. And then you've got um your

31:52

exoticles, the international and the

31:54

European stocks. So Europe is at this

31:56

point a rate trap. Europe is raising

31:59

rates into a recession because they

32:00

enjoy pain. You know, the Frenchies or

32:03

whatever. I don't know the worst thing a

32:05

central bank can do in my opinion, but I

32:07

think the European Central Bank are a

32:09

bunch of nitwits. Um but there we are.

32:12

Um, last time that happened, American

32:14

stocks outperformed the European ones by

32:17

30% over the next two years. So, if you

32:20

own some European or international

32:21

funds, uh, you might want to think about

32:24

what to do with that. Again, I'm not

32:25

telling you what to do. You got to come

32:26

to your own conclusion, but at least

32:27

learn what could be happening there.

32:29

Check your portfolio. Yeah. And at the

32:33

same time, it should make the dollar

32:35

ironically strengthened against the

32:36

euro. So your euro files if you own that

32:40

monkey money that you call dollar and it

32:42

goes up you make more money right so

32:45

having said all that I want to be honest

32:47

with you I respect your intelligence I

32:49

don't have a crystal ball nobody does I

32:52

don't know which world's going to

32:53

materialize nobody does I don't know

32:55

whether the supreme leader of Iran is an

32:58

incredibly uh reasonable and rational

33:00

chap and enjoys negotiating with Trump

33:03

lot but what I do know is this the

33:06

market is priced more or less for one

33:08

outcome. War continues, oil prices stay

33:10

high, rates stay where they are or go

33:13

up. And the only way I know what's going

33:16

to happen is by starting to see the

33:19

institutional money move. I call it

33:21

follow the money, which is pretty much

33:23

my entire investment thesis. I don't

33:25

really care very much what stock I make

33:27

money from because type 10 years down

33:29

the road, nobody's going to care. You

33:31

won't care. you're just wondering why

33:33

your neighbor has got a bigger house or

33:35

a bigger yacht or whatever it is or

33:37

taken care of his family better. Um, and

33:39

it's because he made more money out of

33:41

something that you didn't own. So, I

33:44

look for opportunities that I think

33:46

could be very large. I think we have a

33:50

consensus here that could be wrong. And

33:53

if it is, the repricing will be

33:55

explosive. Fortunes will be made. A lot

33:58

of people unfortunately will cry. And I

34:00

think it is such an important important

34:02

event we haven't seen for many years

34:04

that you deserve to understand it. And

34:07

if you wish to really really learn the

34:10

rules on how to follow the freaking

34:12

money, how to take advantage of this IPO

34:15

summer that we're in the midst of where

34:17

a lot of wealth is going to be made and

34:19

how to set yourself up for the next five

34:21

years, then join us on Sunday on yes,

34:25

Father's Day. I think it is at 700 p.m.

34:27

New York time. So, it'll be good for you

34:29

lot in the Americas. Uh for you lot in

34:32

Europe, you're going to have to ask for

34:34

permission to stay up a little later.

34:36

And uh and if you are in Asia or

34:37

Australia, it'll be fine for you as long

34:39

as you have an alarm clock. So, come and

34:42

join us. Grab yourself a free ticket.

34:43

It's called wealth.org. Link is down

34:46

below in the description. And we're

34:48

going to enjoy the rest of the south of

34:50

France. If you're wondering where I am,

34:51

that is where I am. And it is called the

34:53

Coutazur for a good reason. It is

34:56

obviously this gloriously blue all

34:58

summer which is also why the cats are

35:00

happy. I can still see her actually

35:02

which is nice. And I wish you a glorious

35:05

year. I wish you tremendous success and

35:08

I hope to see you on Sunday if you do

35:09

sign up for the Sunday workshop. Write

35:13

wealth machine into the comments down

35:15

below. All the best. If you own silver,

35:17

whether it's in coins, in a safe,

35:19

shares, in an ETF, or a mining stock,

35:22

what happens on June 16th could be the

35:25

single most important day for your

35:27

investment this year. Here's the

35:28

problem.

Interactive Summary

The video discusses a potential major shift in the stock market driven by a collision between AI debt, geopolitical oil shocks, and divergent monetary policies between the US and Europe. The speaker argues that Wall Street is currently positioned for a scenario where war continues and oil prices remain high. If a peace deal or de-escalation occurs instead, it could trigger a significant repricing event that creates massive opportunities across energy, transportation, consumer, manufacturing, real estate, and tech sectors. Investors are encouraged to learn to 'follow the money' to position themselves for either of these outcomes rather than relying on current market consensus.

Suggested questions

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