Well, I think the round trip world news use scale is much more appropriate.

I don't think we've ended the bottom end of that round trip.

So something really bad has to happen straight for crude oil and maybe get

near or stay above 80. I think that's what most traders are

looking at is leveling. Want to reset those shorts.

And both entities in the straight have vested interest in staying open.

Now I mean Iran's getting a good deal. Can sell crude oil on an open market.

Finally that drill will is going global. So the normal scales for crude oil to

get back to where it was before, but with fuel this time, because we just

added a lot of supply in Western Hemisphere from all those prices going

up that was hovering around $55 a barrel.

So my base case for second half of the year is we're going to press below that

and potentially towards 40. And one key premise, which the stock

market drops down a little bit and stays down a little bit.

That's usually how crude oil makes bottoms.

The stock market has to go down. So is there going to be a.

And if you talk to your trader buddies some kind of Strait of Hormuz kind of

premium baked into Global oil or as she can or she can go right back to supply

and demand. Well, I've already gone back to it,

Paul, but we've accelerated the supply and decrease the demand, and we've

accelerated the process of the redundancy of OPEC and the price, uh,

maker status shifting to the Western Hemisphere.

So let's look at drill well before this war started.

First we had U.S. Canada.

Now we have Venezuela, Iran, U.A.E., potentially Iraq.

The whole world's going that way. And it's also looking forward to a

potential, you know, drawdown in what's happening in the economy.

So to me, this is a normal cycle. But it's not just crude oil.

It happened in corn, soybeans and wheat, Bitcoin and natural gas.

All those markets are heading lower. The key theme is what makes them go up

in the second half of the year. But what does Mr.

Trump need for midterms? Lower inflation.

Crude oil is going to lead the way. I fully expect he's going to get it

heading towards below 50 and stocks go down lower.

Like I said close to the 40. Yeah you've been remarkably consistent

about that call Mike. Uh since the beginning.

Let's get your take on gold prices because you said commodities are going

down. Gold is no exception.

Uh, holding at about 4035, but still a far cry from where it was, uh, before

the Iran war, which was basically, uh, at about, um, 5200 or so.

What is the outlook for gold right now? I think Scarlett's it's shifting to a

bear market on the back of Bitcoin, and it has to look forward to the fed

vigilance. We've reached a plateau of inflation

increasing um, and stock on the back of the stock market.

And it really hurting people in the election.

So what does Mr. Trump need.

It needs low inflation. Gold's a big part of that.

The key theme of our goal is that opportunity we got in Q1 might have been

the best selling opportunity in this, you know, a couple couple decades.

And now we're heading towards a more normal cycle.

I think it's going to be stuck in the range for years.

Good supports around 3400. Good resistance is around its 200 week,

200 day moving average around 4400. But if history is a guide, gold will be

stuck in a range maybe for the next 20 years, like crude oil was for the last

20 years.