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Scott Galloway Predicts a $10 Trillion Market Wipeout | Pivot

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Scott Galloway Predicts a $10 Trillion Market Wipeout | Pivot

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1873 segments

0:00

This isn't military action. This is a

0:01

war. There's one

0:03

>> excursion. The word he's using now. It's

0:04

an excursion.

0:05

>> Like a field trip.

0:13

>> Hi everyone. This is Pivot from New York

0:14

Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast

0:16

Network. I'm Carara Swisser

0:18

>> and I'm Scott Galloway.

0:19

>> Scott, did we have a good time in

0:20

Minneapolis?

0:21

>> Oh, that was wonderful. And thank you to

0:23

the the wonderful people of Minneapolis.

0:25

I thought it was great. I I've never you

0:28

know what was really the the community

0:30

or you know maybe we got a not a

0:33

representative sample I'd like to think

0:34

we got a representative the community

0:36

seems very unified right now. Yeah,

0:38

absolutely. People drove from North

0:40

Dakota. There was

0:42

>> wherever that is or Iowa. We had a

0:44

lawyer from Iowa come.

0:46

>> Yeah. Judge,

0:46

>> by the way, shout out. We know who you

0:48

are. There's this wonderful woman who's

0:49

a lawyer in family court and she

0:51

commutes seven hours a week and she said

0:53

that uh excuse me. She said judge. Yeah.

0:56

And she said we're her we're her best

0:58

friends.

0:59

>> Yeah. Yeah. It was great. And people

1:00

were great. Anyway, we've got a lot to

1:02

get to today. I'm going to dig in.

1:03

First, the war in Iran is sending oil

1:05

prices on a wild ride this week and

1:07

creating what the International Energy

1:09

Agency says is quote the largest supply

1:11

disruption in the history of the global

1:13

oil market. Okay, that's kind of

1:16

something. As of this recording, oil is

1:18

still very high, slowly coming down from

1:20

over $100 a barrel after ships were

1:22

attacked in the Persian B Gulf. There's

1:24

also the tax still going on. Gulf uh gas

1:27

prices continue to climb as well. And

1:28

just remember, it's not just gas prices.

1:30

Every price goes up when gas goes up.

1:32

The IEA's 32 member countries are

1:35

releasing a record 400 million barrels

1:37

of oil from strategic reserves to

1:39

counter the chaos, which means we aren't

1:41

going to feel this yet. Uh I interviewed

1:44

uh Senator Warner yesterday and he was

1:46

noting that um Trump has tried to calm

1:48

markets. He keeps trying to to do this

1:51

to bring these oil prices down by words

1:53

saying the war is quote very complete

1:55

only to later announce we haven't won

1:58

enough. Oil prices also plunged after

2:00

energy secretary Chris Wright

2:01

incorrectly posted that US Navy had

2:03

escorted a tanker through the straight

2:04

of Hormuz. So that was a problem. The

2:07

post was deleted within minutes was

2:08

enough to move markets and wipe out uh

2:10

million billion million dollar trades.

2:13

Um this is such a taco. This is the

2:15

greatest taco of all I think. And even

2:17

if the war in Iran ends soon, returning

2:19

the straight of Hermuz to typical

2:20

traffic could take one to three months.

2:22

We're going to see reverberations of

2:24

this ridiculous situation. um the way

2:26

he's handling it and the way he's not it

2:29

seems all over the place. Um and also to

2:32

to add to the kind of mess there, the

2:34

initial findings of a military

2:36

investigation say that US was

2:37

responsible for that deadly tomahawk

2:39

missile strike on the Iranian elementary

2:41

school. It's actually causing a lot of

2:43

strife within MAGA. By the way, the

2:45

report notes officers like and

2:46

everywhere else, normal people and MAGA.

2:49

Um the report notes officers likely used

2:51

outdated information to label the school

2:53

as a military target. Trump has tried to

2:55

put the blame on Iran earlier this week,

2:57

claiming they also have the tomahawks,

2:59

which everyone thought was ridiculous.

3:00

And when asked about the military report

3:02

on Wednesday, Trump said he knew nothing

3:04

about it. Um, we'll get to the the

3:06

photography scandal at the Pentagon, but

3:08

talk a little bit about what's going on

3:10

with oil prices and this the school,

3:12

which is just I feel like we should take

3:14

responsibility when we make an error,

3:16

such a terrible error. But go ahead,

3:18

start.

3:19

>> I'll go I'll go in reverse order. When

3:21

you're handling a crisis, and this is a

3:23

crisis, the death of civilians,

3:25

especially children, is obviously pretty

3:27

ugly. You acknowledge the issue, you

3:29

take responsibility, and you try and

3:31

overcorrect. And they've done nothing of

3:33

the sort. And there's in a war, and this

3:36

is a war. This isn't military action.

3:37

This is a war. There's

3:39

>> an excursion, the word he's using now,

3:40

it's an excursion,

3:42

>> whatever that means. Excursion.

3:44

>> I went on a bike,

3:45

>> like a field trip, like

3:47

>> Exactly. My daughter went on an

3:48

excursion. except he didn't get

3:49

Congress's approval the day before that

3:51

he could go on the excursion. Um, you

3:53

know, it's a tragedy. Uh, they just made

3:55

a bad situation worse. First off, they

3:58

look incompetent by saying that it might

4:00

have been a tomahawk from Iran. Iran

4:02

doesn't have tomahawks. So, it it looks

4:04

like, okay, I'm not willing to own up to

4:06

this. I mean, there's not a good answer,

4:08

but there's a reasonable answer here,

4:10

and that is

4:13

>> Yeah, this we decided to go, you know,

4:15

with military action. This is a This is

4:17

a group of people who killed 30,000 of

4:19

its own people. War is going to have

4:21

collateral damage. We screwed up. We

4:23

take responsibility. These are the

4:25

following steps we're putting in place

4:26

to make sure it doesn't happen again.

4:29

And take responsibility for it and it

4:31

would have been not over, but it would

4:33

have been acceptable. Instead, it's

4:35

like, no, it was Iran's fault. It just

4:37

doesn't

4:38

>> or I didn't know.

4:40

>> Yeah. Oh,

4:42

>> Pegasus was the same way. It was it was

4:43

and was angry when people asked about

4:45

it, which is the everything wrong in the

4:47

response and everything wrong in the

4:50

mistake. But you're right. Absolutely.

4:52

>> Yeah. And the the real I mean, we're

4:56

just we're just starting to see.

4:59

So, I was speaking to a kid and um and I

5:02

said, "What what you know, where do you

5:03

want to be in 5 years?" I always ask

5:05

young men that. Where do you want to be

5:07

in 5 years? And this kid said, "Uh, I'd

5:09

really love to have my own auto repair

5:12

shop focusing on EVs."

5:13

>> Mhm.

5:13

>> I said, "Okay, well then let's reverse

5:15

engineer from those things." Like, what

5:17

kind of skills do you need to acquire?

5:20

What kind of job certification?

5:22

What kind of capital or money would you

5:24

need to um uh start something like this?

5:28

>> Uh have a business plan. Would what kind

5:30

of real estate would you need? What

5:32

would be your you know, let's reverse

5:34

engineer everything you need basics,

5:36

right? Let's reverse everything,

5:37

engineer everything to today around what

5:40

you would need to be an owner of an EV

5:42

repair shop in uh he lives in the

5:44

outskirts of Los Angeles. Just the

5:46

loveliest young kid. Anyways,

5:49

we can't even reverse engineer the

5:51

tactics because I don't think anyone is

5:53

really clear yet on what the endgame is,

5:55

what the end goal is.

5:57

>> Mhm.

5:57

>> And that is if they had said, "All

5:59

right, we're going to diminish their

6:00

launch capability from missiles." Makes

6:02

all the sense in the world. It's more

6:03

about the launchers and the missiles

6:04

because you can bury the missiles under

6:06

under

6:06

>> these are ballistic missiles for people

6:07

who don't know.

6:08

>> We can we are going to make sure that

6:10

the straits of Hormuz are more secure

6:12

than they were uh previous to this and

6:14

we're going to work with our Gulf allies

6:15

to create a series of mind sweepers and

6:18

and enforce the border. I mean, and

6:20

we're going to take out the navy and

6:22

we're going to take out the munitions

6:23

infrastructure that builds this stuff.

6:25

These are the three boxes we need to

6:27

check.

6:29

>> Can I interject since I just interviewed

6:30

Warner about this? One of the things

6:32

that they've talked about is going in

6:33

and getting the enriched uranium, but

6:34

that would actually be would take, as

6:37

they say, boots on the ground and it

6:38

would be

6:39

>> not viable. Not feasible.

6:41

>> Not feasible unless we want a lot of

6:43

Americans to die.

6:44

>> Yeah. As is quite frankly, as is regime

6:47

change. I mean,

6:48

>> this regime is sticking pretty strongly.

6:51

>> Oh, they're not collapsing.

6:53

>> Yeah. Yeah. No, I think Khi had the

6:55

likelihood of regime change at like 10%

6:58

by the end of March or something like

7:00

that right now.

7:01

Anyways, it's like, well, okay, in war

7:03

you always have to have plans A prime

7:06

and plan B because the enemy gets a say

7:08

in this. But the problem is no one can

7:10

identify plan A.

7:12

>> No, they ate it. They ate it. They the

7:14

the dog ate my homework. Can I ask you

7:15

about the oil prices because I think

7:17

that's something that's going to people

7:18

don't recognize. And um you the idea of

7:22

trying to calm the market by releasing

7:24

incorrect information, letting it go,

7:26

you know, whipssaw all over the place.

7:28

And this release of these 400 million

7:30

barrels is going to have repercussions

7:32

later because that's when the prices

7:34

will go up, these strategic reserves.

7:36

And what they're they're trying to do

7:38

everything possible to pretend we're not

7:40

going to have a real crisis between the

7:42

straight of Hormuz and this release. Um

7:44

and so it they it has second order

7:48

problems. Now Wall Street's sort of

7:49

sloughing it off a little bit. Um but

7:52

these are prices that are going to

7:53

reverberate through the system as you

7:55

have noted. So look, the biggest loser

7:56

here is obviously

7:59

um the people of of Iran who are in the

8:01

wrong place at the wrong time, right?

8:03

The the there is no bigger loser than

8:06

the families who lo lose loved ones. I

8:08

also think the reputation of the US and

8:11

what was an opportunity to create much

8:13

stronger alliances with moderate nations

8:16

in the Gulf. So big losers. What people

8:19

aren't talking about, the countries that

8:22

import more than 50% of their oil,

8:23

Japan, South Korea, India, and most of

8:26

Europe have seen their markets hammered,

8:29

absolutely hammered. Uh poor countries

8:32

with no foreign exchange reserves uh and

8:35

dollar denominated debt can't, you know,

8:37

are could be thrust into the IMF or

8:41

effectively what is bankruptcy. Airlines

8:43

and hospitality companies all over the

8:45

world, shipping, the bunker fuel cost

8:47

Warner said he's been meeting with

8:49

airline executives and they said they're

8:51

fine for now but it's going to be $25

8:52

million a day extra which is crazy.

8:56

>> I mean nations who import their oil

8:58

especially who get most of it through

9:00

the straits of Hormone their economy

9:01

basically their economies are like [ __ ]

9:03

for the year at a minimum. So there this

9:06

is having you know we have obviously the

9:10

biggest losers by body count are Iran

9:13

but by by economic collapse Middle

9:15

Eastern oil importers Jordan, Lebanon,

9:17

Egypt and fragile emerging markets

9:20

Pakistan.

9:21

>> Guess who's doing great? Russia.

9:23

>> Yeah. gives him the need he need he was

9:26

really on the on the ropes around the

9:28

million the million people who have died

9:30

and also the price of oil and now he has

9:32

more money to spend while we ignored uh

9:36

help from the Ukrainians on drones and

9:38

one of the things Warner was pointing

9:39

out was that fine we could take out

9:42

their battleships but their real problem

9:44

is all those small fast boats and their

9:46

drones they can just do all manner of

9:48

damage to us in that with these small

9:51

$50,000 drones and we use a million

9:53

dollar rocket to take it out. I mean,

9:55

this is the problem is they have an

9:57

ability to do this and they've been

9:59

they're, you know, the way Warner

10:01

described it, these this country is hard

10:03

is is hard enforced like hard like

10:06

hardwired. This this is not Venezuela.

10:09

This is Trump lives like he's in some

10:11

movie where you just do three bombs and

10:13

that's the end of it. But this is a

10:15

hardwired

10:16

150,000 people in this in this ruling uh

10:20

group in Iran. And they're not giving up

10:22

all this money and all this power for I

10:25

don't know. It's it's a really difficult

10:27

situation which they didn't.

10:28

>> They're just thinking about the market,

10:29

the winners and losers. The hardest

10:31

stock markets

10:33

>> are Middle Eastern markets. Jordan,

10:35

Egypt, Lebanon, their stock market's

10:37

greater. There's a capital flight to

10:39

safety. I mean, the ironic thing here is

10:41

that over the long term, our reputation

10:42

is in tatters. We're probably the least

10:45

damaged because we're energy

10:47

independent. We produce more energy than

10:49

we consume. We have two oceans

10:50

protecting us. Friendly Canada to the

10:53

north, harmless harmless Mexico to the

10:56

south. We still have capital inflows. In

10:58

a weird I mean, it's just terrible to

10:59

say, but in a weird way. Our markets are

11:02

probably least damaged by this. Europe

11:05

cost. There'll be costs for airlines.

11:06

There'll be costs for uh truckers.

11:08

There's going to be costs for home

11:10

heating. Thank goodness it's not winter,

11:12

right?

11:12

>> The dollar's already strengthened. I

11:14

mean,

11:15

>> it's it's ironic, but when you diminish

11:17

the entire world, there's a flight to

11:19

safety, and flights to safety usually

11:21

benefit the US. Emerging markets are

11:22

going to get the [ __ ] kicked out of

11:24

them. India, Brazil, South Africa,

11:25

Mexico, capital flowing out to the US

11:29

dollar for safe havens. The US will

11:32

likely be down 8 to 10% on a tariff

11:34

ruling or was down but it could be down

11:36

another 10 to 15% and that'll be I'll

11:39

talk more about that in our prediction

11:41

but you're going to have a pretty big

11:43

big peak to trough but that some of that

11:45

might just be the air coming out of the

11:47

bubble but to your point the least

11:49

damaged in the Middle East or Saudi

11:52

Arabia and the UAE but the big winner

11:53

here as you said is Russia oil the oil

11:56

price spikes the oil price spike

11:58

benefits them the US is distracted by

12:00

Iran. So more Ukraine leverage and oddly

12:04

the the ruble strengthens. So

12:07

>> yep,

12:07

>> this is

12:09

>> war is literally the agent of unintended

12:11

consequences.

12:12

>> Y

12:13

>> and this is so frustrating because if

12:14

this had been more like fore and less

12:17

like a rock and they'd set out a series

12:19

of achievable objectives

12:21

>> that this could have been a win. It

12:23

could have been the Gulf States coming

12:24

together

12:25

>> and if they had said, "Look, to a couple

12:27

European nations and to the Gulf States,

12:30

a stable Middle East benefits all of us.

12:33

Let's all have a series of objectives

12:35

and we're going to pay for and execute

12:37

against most of this. We could have

12:39

strengthened our alliances."

12:40

>> We've been dragged around by Israel

12:42

here. In a lot of ways, it looks like

12:43

it. Let me let me move on.

12:44

>> See, I disagree. I think we're very

12:46

tightly coordinated with Israel right

12:47

now.

12:47

>> I talked to Warner who's in the gang of

12:49

eight. I'm going to go with him over

12:50

you. I'm sorry to say that, but you

12:51

know, I think it was that they were

12:52

>> You went with the senator over Scott.

12:54

>> Yes. Yes, I damn. Um I think they were

12:56

going to attack and we decided to be the

12:58

senior partner like that's rather than

13:00

create something else because

13:01

>> Well, you mean Iran was going to attack

13:02

Israel? Israel's attack.

13:04

>> No, no, no. Israel was going to attack

13:05

Iran. That I mean that's the implication

13:08

he had. And

13:08

>> and Senator Warner feels like we did not

13:10

have the power to say stop.

13:12

>> Well, he doesn't know why we didn't.

13:14

That was one of his questions. He he's

13:16

he's surprised. He He seemed wor more

13:18

worried. He's usually not a worry wart,

13:20

but he seems worried about two things.

13:22

How this was conducted, obviously,

13:24

>> and what the real implications are,

13:26

especially around drones and small boats

13:28

that could do enormous damage to our

13:29

battleships and everything else, and

13:32

also election security. Um, but one of

13:34

the the weirder parts is how the the

13:36

administration has behaved. Um, Donald

13:38

Trump was dancing last night or golfing

13:41

and stuff like this, so the visuals

13:42

aren't very good. And the DoD has now

13:44

barred press photographers from Iran

13:46

briefings after publishing photos of

13:48

HEGs staff found unflattering according

13:50

to the Washington Post. Hex says vanity

13:52

aside, um it just they just look like

13:56

like he looks like a fatuous popping and

13:58

jay at all times. But in this case, the

14:01

lack of seriousness about something

14:03

that's very serious seems problematic.

14:05

And it's also causing problems within

14:07

their own group of mega. There's a real

14:09

shift. There's a real like sort of

14:12

Tucker Carlson and Megan Kelly u MTG on

14:15

one side um and then you know Mark

14:19

Levin, Ben Shapiro, all this there's a

14:20

real ugliness. I I went over I wandered

14:23

over to Twitter which I shouldn't have

14:24

done and the the nastiness between them

14:28

is really quite something. It's really

14:29

quite something to watch.

14:31

>> Like imagery is so incredibly powerful.

14:34

Basically, I think one photograph

14:36

brought didn't bring an end to the

14:38

Vietnam War, but expedited it. And it's

14:40

that that's it's that incredibly

14:42

dramatic photo of the the young girl

14:45

running from a napal bombing. And with

14:47

the Iraq war, George Bush and the

14:49

Pentagon, they banned photos of service

14:52

member coffins because he realized war

14:54

is so ugly that that it'll lose support.

14:58

And there's just and the notion that

15:00

these guys can't handle the images of

15:02

Pete Hegathth in an unflattering I mean

15:05

it's just uh it shows you're spending

15:09

you're allocating your capital in the

15:11

wrong places that's not that's not what

15:14

you should be thinking about or worried

15:16

about. And if you think you can control

15:18

the imagery of Pete Hacksath, well,

15:21

okay, just wait till you see the images

15:23

that are going to come out of Iran. And

15:25

you can already sell see that the IRGC

15:27

is quite frankly organizing again and

15:30

going on an information campaign.

15:32

>> They are and they've been very good.

15:34

Iran in general has been one of the

15:36

stronger players uh in th in those

15:38

spaces in terms of propaganda and

15:40

everything else. And so that's why

15:42

>> when you say good, you mean effective.

15:45

They they lie like there's no tomorrow,

15:46

>> of course. But hello, lots of people do.

15:49

Lots of governments do. Um,

15:50

>> oh, I don't know. I think I think Iran

15:52

takes it to a new level.

15:53

>> They do, but but they are, when I say

15:56

good is they're good at it. Um, they're

15:58

very um they're all throughout all the

16:00

various social networks. They're very um

16:03

they did one the other day which I was

16:05

sort of fascinated by where they put up

16:07

your president as a pedophile. Um which

16:09

was interesting. um they just they've

16:12

been at it for a long long time and they

16:14

have used often when there's stuff that

16:17

pops up online it's either Russia or

16:19

Iran. um China to an extent too, but

16:22

really Iran has used social media as one

16:26

of the smaller I mean it is a smaller

16:27

country than Russia or less powerful and

16:30

it has used social media to its

16:32

advantage in ways that are really of

16:35

course heinous because it's conspiracy

16:36

theories and you you always find them

16:39

somewhere in they're at the top everyone

16:41

I ever interview in cyber security are

16:43

the top in cyber security issues in uh

16:46

propaganda in conspiracy theories and

16:49

they have a very welloiled machine

16:51

throughout the world doing this kind of

16:53

stuff. So,

16:54

>> well, when the actual audit of social

16:56

media is done, I think we're going to

16:58

find that somewhere between 10 and 40%

17:01

of comments and posts

17:03

>> Yeah.

17:03

>> on geopolitical accounts or accounts of

17:06

influencers

17:07

is going to have originated from either

17:09

the CCP, the GRU, or the RGC.

17:12

>> Yep. Absolutely.

17:13

>> And this is what you do. You see a piece

17:15

of content and then you look at the

17:16

comments to evaluate and shape your own

17:19

view of that content.

17:21

>> Mhm.

17:22

>> And when

17:23

>> it's all gamed

17:25

>> Yeah. And it it has a huge impact. You

17:28

don't even recognize how much impact it

17:29

has on your views of stuff because if

17:31

someone says,

17:32

>> "Oh, the US the US will be able to

17:35

escort ships through the straits of

17:36

Hormuz." I'm just using an example.

17:38

>> And then there's just a ton of stuff

17:40

saying that'll never happen. Oil prices

17:42

are going to be at $200.

17:43

>> Mhm. All right. Where's that comment

17:44

coming from?

17:45

>> Right.

17:46

>> And and unfortunately, although they

17:49

could put in places to verify accounts

17:51

and get rid of fake accounts and fake

17:54

comments, you know, I mean, just go on

17:57

these really sensitive pages or

17:58

sensitive opinions and click on who made

18:01

the comment and it's someone with three

18:03

followers.

18:05

Okay, that's not a person,

18:07

>> right? And the question is why would

18:08

someone be making this comment or what

18:11

entity would have an interest in these

18:12

comments?

18:13

>> Yep.

18:14

>> Anyway, I

18:15

>> we're going to talk about that later

18:16

because there's a major report from the

18:18

Center for Countering Digital Hate

18:19

that's really interesting around chat

18:21

bots. Um but we're going to move on uh

18:23

and we have lots to talk about, but

18:25

there this story is going to continue in

18:27

our reberations obviously. Um, but when

18:30

uh we're going to go on a quick break

18:31

and when we come back, Anthropics sues

18:33

the Pentagon and Microsoft comes to

18:35

Anthropic's defense.

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19:57

Scott, we're back with more news. The

19:59

White House is reportedly preparing an

20:01

executive order to formally ban

20:02

anthropic across the federal government,

20:04

which is likely illegal. The Defense

20:06

Department CTO Emil Michael, and let me

20:08

just say I covered him and he's a a

20:10

toading bully, just said on CNBC that

20:13

Anthropic would quote, "pollute the AY's

20:15

supply chain." We've only done this for

20:17

foreign companies. Just so you know,

20:20

this kind of behavior. All this comes as

20:22

Anthropic is officially suing the

20:24

Pentagon for labeling it a supply chain

20:26

risk, effectively blacklisting the

20:28

company from federal contracts. This has

20:30

never been done to an American company.

20:31

Uh, Anthropic argues the government

20:33

overstepped its authority and violated

20:35

the company's First Amendment rights.

20:37

And now Microsoft is getting in the mix.

20:38

The company threw its support behind

20:40

Anthropic this week, urging the federal

20:42

court to temporarily block the Pentagon

20:44

supply risk designation in an amicus

20:46

brief. Uh, Microsoft warned uh that the

20:49

unprecedented move would have quote

20:51

broad negative ramifications for the US

20:53

tech industry. And they're damn right.

20:55

Scott, before we go further, I want to

20:56

play a prediction you made last week.

20:58

Let's listen. My prediction is no. And

21:02

that is Dario Amodi has given license

21:05

and permission to CEOs to say no. And in

21:08

the next 30 days, you are going to see a

21:11

raft of CEOs find their testicles and

21:14

start saying no to this administration.

21:16

>> So you were right, Scott. Uh so let's

21:18

talk about that them saying no. And it's

21:19

not just Microsoft. 37 AI researchers at

21:22

OpenA and Google, not the companies

21:23

themselves, also filed a brief

21:25

supporting anthropic. Um, you know, I'm

21:28

going to just very quickly comment that

21:30

the this what the government's doing

21:32

here is really unprecedented. It's a

21:34

disagreement with a company and instead

21:36

of just disagreeing and moving on, they

21:38

are attacking them in the most

21:39

ridiculous ways, trying to make an

21:41

example of anthropic and really hurt

21:42

their business. I need you all to

21:44

understand Emil Michael's role here

21:47

because the the these people all have

21:49

other interests and agendas that have to

21:51

do with their previous life in Silicon

21:54

Valley and their future life in Silicon

21:56

Valley. And Emil Michael's always, as I

21:58

said, been a toading bully to powerful

22:00

men. And this is what he's doing here.

22:02

Um, and he's not a he is not a um a

22:05

player that is in any way um you know,

22:09

sort of neutral. He's not doing things

22:11

for you and I in in this government.

22:14

He's doing things in his own

22:16

self-interest if would be my guess. And

22:18

so the the attacks on anthropic right

22:20

behind him is all manner of competitors

22:22

of Anthropic that are using the federal

22:24

government to uh hurt a company that

22:27

decided not to want to do something. And

22:29

I'm glad Microsoft uh stood up for them.

22:32

Scott,

22:33

>> I think this is the biggest story in

22:34

tech. And so just a quick a quick recap.

22:37

Um, Anthropic had basically two ass

22:41

um, and both pretty narrow. They didn't

22:44

want uh, Claude to be used for fully

22:46

autonomous weapons, meaning AI, not

22:48

humans making final lethal uh, targeting

22:52

decisions, which seems reasonable. And

22:54

the second one was no use of cloud for

22:56

mass domestic surveillance of Americans.

22:59

And the Pentagon responded that it does

23:02

not intend to use COD for those

23:03

purposes, but refused to contractually

23:05

commit to that, arguing that it it can't

23:08

lead tactical operations by exception

23:10

and that legality is the Pentagon's

23:12

responsibility. And then on the U about

23:16

2 and 1/2 weeks ago, Trump posted on

23:18

True Social directing every federal

23:20

agency directing every federal agency to

23:23

immediately seize all use of anthropics

23:26

technology.

23:28

And then Hexath designated anthropic as

23:30

a supply chain risk. Okay, that is

23:32

that's a label which was which has been

23:35

reserved for foreign adversaries.

23:36

>> Yeah, I just said that. Yeah.

23:38

>> And companies linked to the Chinese and

23:40

Russian government. Well, I'm saying it

23:41

again, Carol.

23:42

>> Right. Okay, fine.

23:43

>> The supply chain the supply chain risk

23:46

status.

23:48

First off, that's this isn't just the

23:50

government saying, "Okay, you don't want

23:52

to work with us, we don't want to work

23:53

with you." Mhm.

23:55

>> If they say if they label them as a

23:57

supply chain risk, then already uh a 100

24:01

plus enterprise companies have reached

24:03

out to Anthropic and said, "We may not

24:05

be able to use you." A financial

24:07

services company posits negotiations

24:09

regarding a $50 million contract.

24:12

A pharmaceutical firm, financial

24:14

technology company. I mean, they can't.

24:16

This really is an ex when you're labeled

24:18

sort of an enemy of state. This is

24:19

equivalent of like you're a corporate

24:21

enemy of state or threat. I say threat.

24:24

Anthropic has now filed a lawsuit

24:26

against the Pentagon saying that

24:28

Congress's procurement laws don't

24:30

authorize blacklisting a US company over

24:33

protected speech. That's what this is.

24:35

They get they get to work with or not

24:37

work with who they want. And the supply

24:39

chain designation is is just not it's

24:42

just not legal. And it sets a dangerous

24:44

precedent for any American company.

24:46

>> Lose most people. The government will

24:48

lose. But it will have an effect. Yes.

24:50

Yes. The government will lose, but it'll

24:52

still have the effect. This is a Trump

24:54

thing. He creates a real problem whether

24:56

it's anthropic

24:57

>> and companies won't work with them until

24:58

they figure it out

24:59

>> and then it causes damage just like they

25:00

done at you know when they fire all of

25:03

Voice of America. Now they've lost in

25:05

court and Carrie Lake is an idiot but

25:07

it's already caused damage and caused

25:10

damage to it and that's the goal is

25:12

they're going to push it illegally as

25:14

far as they can and then they'll be

25:16

stopped but by the time they're stopped

25:18

Anthropic is badly affected. And if you

25:20

all don't think this is a Silicon Valley

25:23

rumble happening here, it's all in the

25:25

self-interest of private companies who

25:28

have an interest in slowing anthropic

25:30

down. And if you look at the links

25:31

between Emil Michael and the rest of

25:33

these these these clowns,

25:35

>> they have financial interest and

25:36

competitors

25:37

>> just this. Yes, they do. And so this is

25:39

a way that Silicon Valley the penny

25:42

Silicon Valley used to ignore government

25:44

for the most part and then the penny

25:46

drop that they're easy to pay for and

25:48

that they can do their competition with

25:50

each other in the federal government by

25:52

pretending they're working for us as

25:54

people are getting spots putting their

25:56

putting their people in the various

25:58

spots right that will cause it. This is

26:00

a Silicon Valley corporate beef

26:02

happening. It's that is what's occurring

26:04

here. The one that's been most

26:06

outspoken, I'm trying to connect his

26:08

financial interest, which I'm sure is

26:09

driving his rhetoric, is David Sachs.

26:11

>> David Saxs, Mark Andre, please

26:14

understand there are shadow people

26:16

behind these actions that you need to

26:19

pay attention to. And Trump is, you

26:21

know, sort of a useful idiot. I'm I'm

26:23

sure they make fun of Trump behind his

26:25

back. Um, but, you know, it's all in

26:27

their economic self-interest to hurt

26:29

this company. And they couldn't hurt

26:31

them by being better. So, this is how

26:34

they're doing it. this is what they're

26:35

doing.

26:36

>> But it comes down this is the this is

26:38

the fulcrum that determines if companies

26:41

continue to show some backbone and by

26:43

the way good for Sachi Nadella um

26:46

showing some backbone here at again

26:48

risk. So

26:51

the

26:52

calcia is saying that anthropics like

26:55

the likelihood anthropic wins the case

26:56

is 72%.

26:58

In the meantime, companies will say,

27:00

"Hey, that site license we're about to

27:02

sign with anthropic, we're just going to

27:03

wait. We're apologize. This is terrible.

27:06

>> We love you. We think you're techn

27:09

>> We we we can't sign this contract right

27:12

now." To to your point, Microsoft and a

27:15

group of 22 retired senior military

27:17

officers have filed amicuses amicus

27:20

briefs in support of Anthropic and its

27:23

lawsuit.

27:24

But what's interesting is that consumers

27:27

are speaking. The enterprise is running,

27:29

but consumers are running towards

27:31

Anthropic. Downloads of the cloud app

27:33

spiked more than 75% after Trump

27:36

prompted federal agencies to stop using

27:38

Anthropic. And on the flip side,

27:41

uninstalls of Chat GPT

27:44

uh Chat GPT's mobile app spiked roughly

27:47

300%

27:49

the day after Trump's proclamation. So

27:52

the the the question is who wins in the

27:55

mind of anthropics board here the fear

27:58

and the stasis that has been created in

28:02

the enterprise market or consumers

28:04

running towards a company they think is

28:06

finally showing some

28:08

>> I think it's damaging I think this is

28:09

the this is such a Trump way to do this

28:12

is create

28:12

>> philanthropics more enterprise

28:14

unfortunately

28:14

>> I I know create chaos

28:17

>> and damage and it's legal but do the

28:20

punch Even if it's like I'm not a boxer,

28:22

but if you do like a kidney punch, you

28:24

do a you hurt the person and then you're

28:26

like, "Oh, did I do that? I didn't know

28:28

I did that." And you use your minions uh

28:31

and I cannot underscore again what a

28:33

minion Emil Michael is. Um to do your

28:37

dirty work and pretend you're working

28:39

for the government. It's the whole thing

28:40

is such a This is such a fixed fight. I

28:44

can't even you need to and I think

28:46

reporters should really spend a lot of

28:48

people don't know these characters.

28:50

Again, this was an ex Uber executive.

28:52

He's been involved in a lot of stuff in

28:53

Silicon Valley, but he had to leave Uber

28:55

under please go watch look at our

28:58

reporting on him many years ago. Um he

29:01

had to leave Uber under very difficult

29:03

circumstances around the rape of a woman

29:05

in India um in an Uber. Um, but just um

29:10

just go go Google them reporters who are

29:13

covering this and stop acting like Emil

29:15

Michael has is this clean character. In

29:17

any case, I'm sure he'll come after me,

29:19

but it's true. Um, so I I'll win on that

29:22

regard. Um, anyway, um, we're going to

29:25

move on. Uh, another thing that again,

29:27

Silicon Valley just can't stop stealing

29:30

essentially. Grammarly launched an

29:31

expert review AI feature that gives

29:33

editing suggestions supposedly inspired

29:35

by well-known writers and journalists.

29:37

Casey Newton discovered the tool was

29:40

attributing advice to him and others

29:42

even though they never agreed to

29:43

participate. The feature even generated

29:45

advice under the name of a certain tech

29:47

journalist, Cara Swisser. Um they've

29:51

they've stopped that now. They've gotten

29:53

they they pulled back on it apparently.

29:55

But what an incredible bunch of

29:57

information and identity thieves. I

29:59

don't know what to say. Anytime these

30:01

people can steal, they steal. They're

30:03

such shoplifterss. I don't your

30:04

thoughts. Well, it goes back to this

30:07

mindset and I thought one of the I think

30:10

there's looking glasses into people's

30:11

souls, how they treat their pets, how

30:14

they treat service staff is sort of a

30:16

you know when is their guard down when

30:18

there are certain tells, right?

30:20

>> And one of the tells that was really

30:22

frightening when Sam Alman was asked

30:25

about the energy consumption of AI. He

30:28

said, "What people don't take into

30:30

account is the amount of energy it takes

30:32

and the amount of investment and

30:33

resources it takes to get a human to a

30:35

point where it can make logical

30:37

decisions and engage in critical

30:39

thinking."

30:40

>> Mhm.

30:40

>> He said, "If you look at how much energy

30:42

and input and resources it takes to

30:44

raise a child such that it can get to a

30:45

point where it can make decisions,

30:48

>> AI is better." I found that so

30:50

nihilistic and so inhuman because what

30:54

Silicon Valley

30:55

>> or at least some of the individuals we

30:57

talk a lot about don't realize is that

31:00

>> we try and get ROI economically such

31:03

that we can make low ROI investments in

31:05

relationships and people we love. I'm

31:08

not getting I am not getting an ROI back

31:10

for my children on any sort of economic

31:12

level.

31:12

>> Well, you use a lot of energy. I'm

31:14

wondering if we should use as much

31:15

energy for you as we do. But go ahead.

31:17

Well, but the the whole point the whole

31:19

shooting match

31:22

>> of an economy and relationships and

31:24

satisfaction and purpose and some sort

31:25

of spiritual sense of calm and and like

31:28

your life mattered is that you do engage

31:31

in productive,

31:33

you know, productive economic or

31:34

domestic labor such that you can invest

31:38

that in other people

31:41

and you may or may not get a return. But

31:44

the point is the return you get is

31:45

you're so invested in something that you

31:48

you your life has meaning. The the whole

31:50

point is that you create value such that

31:53

you can you can you can invest that

31:56

value in relationships. And for most

31:58

people the most rewarding place of

31:59

investment where quite frankly they

32:01

don't get anything resembling an

32:02

economic ROI is in children. And to look

32:06

at it on that level is like, okay, you

32:09

don't understand

32:10

what it is to be a mammal or a human.

32:14

And and also the notion that you can

32:17

spend 50 years of your life

32:20

professionally working your ass off,

32:21

staying late, starting in the mail room

32:22

at the Washington Post as you did, such

32:24

that you have a voice, a reputation, a

32:26

twist of phrase, an ability to string

32:28

words together that compels people to

32:30

action or provides insight. And then

32:32

they can come in and just adopt that 50

32:35

years or piggyback on it.

32:37

>> That piggyback steal it really

32:39

>> is like I if I type in give me five

32:43

jokes on this or or give me a view on

32:45

the oil price and I put in my voice it

32:49

does a really good job because what it's

32:51

doing is stealing from everything I have

32:53

ever written, said or done.

32:55

>> That is correct.

32:56

>> And so the music industry did this

32:58

correctly. It said, "Okay, if we're

33:00

Kroq, which is awesome, the best radio

33:03

station

33:04

>> uh of the '9s in Los Angeles, and they

33:07

play a bunch of English Beat or Tom

33:09

Petty

33:10

>> or Lloyd Cole in the Commotions or Ramm,

33:13

they track how much they're playing and

33:14

then they send them a royalty."

33:16

>> Mhm. And what these guys want to do is

33:17

they want to leverage your years,

33:20

decades of of of discipline, schooling,

33:24

certification, risk-taking, time away

33:26

from your family, but they don't want to

33:28

pay for it. And they see everything. I

33:32

mean, that's I think a a a felony. But

33:35

what is double homicide from a mentality

33:38

standpoint is that these people really

33:40

look at relationships and humans on an

33:43

economic basis. I just when I saw that I

33:47

thought

33:47

>> Yeah. Yeah. He just had a kid.

33:48

>> This guy is not

33:50

>> he just had a kid.

33:52

>> Well, I'm I'm not going to I'm not going

33:54

to speak to his children, but what he's

33:56

going to find out and this is a what I

33:58

tell other dads

33:59

>> comment. It was a dark comment.

34:01

>> I'm like, don't make the mistake I made

34:02

and think that right away your kid's

34:04

going to be super into the [ __ ] you're

34:06

into and you're going to get all these

34:08

Hallmark moments despite what insurance

34:09

commercials would tell you. you're going

34:12

to have to invest more in this child in

34:14

every way.

34:15

>> And that's the point because at some

34:17

point what you realize is that that

34:18

overinvestment in other people gives you

34:21

purpose and value.

34:22

>> Well, I I I do think we're going to move

34:24

on from this, but let me just say they

34:26

think everything is for the taking and

34:27

for them. I just this is just another

34:29

example. This what was happening at the

34:31

defense department. Oh, we have an

34:32

uponthropic. Oh, anything they can take

34:36

they take. and they just continue to

34:38

prove, you know, they they keep not

34:40

meeting my low expectations for them

34:43

already. Um, and this is kind of an

34:45

interesting thing. Researchers from the

34:46

Center for Countering Digital Hate,

34:48

which has been attacked in all the and

34:50

it's its founder been attacked legally

34:52

by Elon Musk and the federal government

34:54

now in his at his behest, um, tested 10

34:59

major they they're keeping going though,

35:00

they don't care. tested 10 major AI

35:02

chatbots and found out eight out of 10

35:04

were willing to help plan a violent

35:06

attacks like school shootings, bombings,

35:08

or assassinations. Researchers posed as

35:10

a 13-year-old boys as 13 boys showing

35:13

how easily minors could get guidance on

35:14

weapons, locations, and strategies. Only

35:17

anthropics claude and Snapchat's my AI

35:19

consistently refused to assist in

35:21

planning attacks and only Claude

35:23

attempted to dissuade the users.

35:25

Deepseek wished the user happy and safe

35:28

shooting. And on that note, a lot of you

35:30

have been writing in about a story in

35:31

Canada earlier this year. An 18-year-old

35:34

gunman opened fire at a school in in

35:36

Tumblr Ridge, British Columbia, killing

35:38

eight people. Let's listen to a clip

35:39

from a listener. I am calling because it

35:42

seems to be that there is a connection

35:44

now between the shooter and chat GPT.

35:50

The shooter was flagged by Chat GBT

35:53

several months ago regarding some of uh

35:56

their behavior online. Chat GBT didn't

36:00

report it, which is one of the reasons

36:01

why I am leaving this message to see

36:06

what your thoughts are on that. Open A

36:09

is now being sued by the parent of the

36:11

child who was injured in the shooting.

36:13

I, as you know, I've been at this for

36:15

years, especially around kids, but it's

36:17

jumped into people. Um the most recent

36:20

uh one of the more recent shootings it

36:22

was was this suicide was an adult was

36:25

was changed by these chatbots. I cannot

36:28

let's stop calling them chatbots. What

36:29

an adorable word for synthetic beings.

36:32

Um which who don't who don't are not

36:35

bound by legal like if you're a lawyer

36:37

and you did this you'd go to jail. If

36:38

you're an anal if you're a you know a

36:40

psychologist and you did this you'd go

36:42

to jail. If you were a person and you

36:44

did this you would go to jail. like all

36:46

of the people go to jail. They're

36:49

willing to assist in violent attacks and

36:52

they're not doing anything to rein it

36:54

in. And it's not just kids, it's it's

36:56

everything. And again, the only one that

36:59

is doing the right thing is Claude. And

37:03

so, and this is anthrop. And this is the

37:05

company. I'm not doing an ad for Claude

37:07

here, but they have at least some. And I

37:09

think they should be regulated, too. But

37:11

I can't tell you how incandescent I am

37:14

about the way these people try to take

37:16

every p bit for themselves and they do

37:19

not care the damage they are creating.

37:22

And I I I am going to keep talking about

37:24

this until Congress steps in and does

37:28

something about it. You don't work for

37:30

those rich people. You do not work for

37:32

them. You and and I I'm with Dell Rico.

37:35

Enough with these people. So go ahead. I

37:37

just ranted. Well, I I think it's

37:39

important to draw a distinction between

37:42

potentially creating some sort of

37:43

psychosis that leads to self harm or

37:45

harm against others through overuse of

37:48

of AI or any other digital platform. I

37:51

think that's a separate study that needs

37:53

to be done

37:54

and without the interference of the

37:58

massive money and lies and and owned

38:02

bought research that these these firms

38:03

will do. I think this is different. I

38:06

think this is whether the federal

38:08

government needs to put in place laws

38:10

and incentives such that if a private

38:12

organization or corporation

38:15

receives information that this person

38:17

might be on the verge of committing an

38:19

act of violence, if they have a

38:21

responsibility to report it to the

38:23

authorities immediately,

38:25

and I think they do. I'm not a privacy

38:28

person. I'm not suggesting we go to

38:30

Minority Report where we arrest them

38:32

before they've committed the crime. But

38:34

at at my school or or

38:39

so uh my school in Florida where my kids

38:42

went at another school uh and we we all

38:46

shared information when I was involved

38:48

with the school about these very

38:49

difficult situations. A kid was drawing

38:51

very um disturbing images of gun

38:54

violence. And so the school felt like it

38:58

had an obligation to report it. And then

38:59

the FBI went to the house and the FBI

39:01

said, "Are there any guns in the house?"

39:03

Mhm.

39:04

>> And I think that was the right thing to

39:05

do.

39:06

>> You're right. That seems

39:07

>> If you notice, there was a video that

39:09

went viral on Snap. A teacher put out a

39:12

snap saying that she wanted to kill

39:14

these kids. And it immediately the cops

39:18

showed up and said, "Did you put did you

39:21

say this? Are you having any sort of

39:23

mental issue right now? You need to go

39:25

home and we need to understand what is

39:28

going on with you and if you have access

39:30

to guns before we let you back into a

39:31

school." Mhm.

39:33

>> And the same is true here that if you

39:36

are going to monetize this type of

39:38

information and you understand it so you

39:41

can interpret it so well

39:43

>> that you can create a prompt that keeps

39:45

them on another second, another minute

39:47

or serves them the exactly right auto

39:50

insurance ad. Then in exchange for that

39:53

economic benefit and what is clearly

39:55

demonstrated ability to know what's

39:57

going on with that person, if you see

40:00

any evidence that that person might be

40:02

capable of creating this type of crime,

40:05

you have an obligation,

40:07

you bartenders, the bar, if a bartender

40:12

continues to serve people alcohol,

40:15

observing that that person is really

40:17

drunk

40:18

>> and then that person gets in a bar and

40:20

kills someone. Mhm.

40:21

>> The bar is liable,

40:23

>> right?

40:24

>> So if they have such incredible

40:25

targeting, such unbelievable

40:27

information, they can clearly tell that

40:29

okay, this individual is getting maps

40:34

>> and and identification and information

40:36

is basically digital.

40:38

>> We should investigate is what you're

40:39

saying. This is

40:40

>> a school then immediately a message goes

40:43

out to the local authorities saying here

40:45

is exactly what this person said. We

40:47

have a judge involved. You get the order

40:50

and boom, they're in the house

40:54

asking this person questions. I'm not

40:56

saying they arrest them. They haven't

40:57

done anything yet.

40:58

>> Right. Right.

40:58

>> But

41:00

>> they would argue this is surveillance.

41:02

But of course, they don't mind selling

41:03

surveillance.

41:03

>> They're surveilling. They're surveilling

41:05

us to serve as the thing is, you know,

41:07

I'm just saying a human being in this

41:09

situation would be arrested or liable,

41:11

right?

41:13

>> These people are giving I agree you

41:15

should separate the two, but they're

41:16

related, Scott. It's the same mentality

41:19

of let us extract all the good stuff.

41:22

Let us not protect anybody and we are

41:25

not liable for what we're doing there.

41:27

You know, Mark Benoff once called them

41:30

cigarette companies. It's worse. It's

41:32

worse than a cigarette company. They

41:34

were just selling cigarettes and using

41:36

Joe Camel. That sucks. But this is

41:38

something demented. Like I think they

41:42

they they're demented. I I don't that

41:44

they think this is okay and that they

41:46

don't say to themselves, should we

41:48

really is this the way we want to make

41:50

our money? We want to make our money by

41:52

poisoning children's minds. We want to

41:54

make our money by letting people who are

41:57

mentally disabled become more so and

42:00

then giving that's a different issue.

42:02

>> I agree. But they're giving people plans

42:04

and if you're going to give people plans

42:06

on how to shoot a school, you have a

42:08

responsibility to say you might want to

42:10

check this out. I I get, but for the

42:12

purposes of of remedies,

42:15

>> I think you need to separate the two.

42:17

Character AI may in fact be leading

42:19

people into a state of psychosis where

42:21

they believe the right thing to do is to

42:23

find their stepfather's gun and kill

42:25

themselves cuz they're going to get to

42:26

hang out with Daenerys and the

42:28

afterlife. That is shifting their

42:31

psychological state.

42:33

My understanding of this the the shooter

42:35

here was that she was already in an

42:38

awful psychological state and was using

42:40

chat GPT as a tool to execute

42:44

>> violence.

42:45

>> Both require some sort of regulation,

42:48

responsibility, and action.

42:49

>> Different. You're right.

42:50

>> Yeah. You've done a lot of good work

42:52

interviewing parents around the rabbit

42:54

hole and psychosis that the character

42:56

AIs can lead people to, which by the way

42:58

has an average usage time of 75 minutes

43:01

versus AI at like 13 or 15. At the same

43:05

time, if these organizations

43:08

can very easily use the same technology

43:10

to not only alert them at the right

43:12

moment to serve them an ad for a dating

43:14

app or for a cryptocurrency trading

43:16

platform

43:17

>> to say, "This person is clearly going

43:20

through something and potentially a

43:21

threat to the community and others. They

43:24

have a responsibility to immediately

43:26

notify the authorities."

43:27

>> All right, we're going to finish up with

43:28

they don't have a community

43:29

responsibility. One of the things that

43:30

always struck me

43:31

>> when you say they don't have a

43:32

community.

43:32

>> They don't feel like they like

43:34

>> No, I'm saying they should. I think

43:35

we're in agreement here.

43:36

>> I think they never did is the point I

43:38

was going to make when I when they were

43:40

building their their headquarters. I

43:42

remember Twitter building its

43:43

headquarter and they had the most

43:44

beautiful cafeteria. I don't know if

43:46

you've ever been there, but it was

43:47

gorgeous.

43:47

>> I've never been invited to Twitter's

43:48

cafeteria.

43:49

>> This was pre Elon and I was thinking

43:52

>> pre-lon.

43:52

>> Pre-lon. Um I was thinking they don't

43:55

care about all the businesses around

43:57

like you know what I mean? like they

43:58

kept the people captive in this

44:00

beautiful everything is here, don't go

44:03

anywhere. And that they don't give a

44:04

[ __ ] about San Francisco. It's just like

44:07

they just want to be here. But they

44:09

didn't care about the surrounding

44:11

delies. They didn't care about people

44:12

going out in the street and creating a

44:14

street life. They didn't back the the

44:17

you know, they don't have to back the

44:18

opera, but they didn't back any civic

44:20

organizations ever. And I was always

44:22

like, "Huh, what a group of people. They

44:24

don't really care about anything but

44:26

themselves." Like I remember being

44:28

struck by that cafeteria and thinking

44:29

they really could give a [ __ ] And it

44:32

was the same it's the same idea. They

44:34

could give a [ __ ] about our government.

44:35

They could give a [ __ ] about all these

44:37

things except for what's in their

44:39

interests. And so I I could go I'm going

44:41

to I'm moving into I'm speaking of

44:42

psychosis. I'm moving

44:43

>> it comes down to one sort of basic

44:45

algorithm and that is all corporate. You

44:49

could argue the big tech is worse than

44:50

most. But generally speaking, it's safe

44:52

to assume that all corporations care

44:54

about is shareholder value and earnings

44:57

and getting to those earnings within the

44:59

confines of the law. What unfortunately

45:02

is different nowadays, I don't think

45:04

that's changed. I think General Motors

45:05

would still be pouring mercury into the

45:06

river if there wasn't

45:08

>> I would agree

45:09

>> wasn't an EPA. The the failure of the

45:12

glitch in the matrix is that we used to

45:14

have checks and balance in the form of

45:15

leadership.

45:16

>> Mhm. that prevented a tragedy of the

45:18

commons. But because of Citizens United

45:20

now,

45:21

>> the only thing that elected officials

45:23

care about is getting reelected. And the

45:25

only thing you need to get reelected is

45:27

more money than the next person.

45:29

>> And Silicon Valley has connected the

45:31

dots here.

45:31

>> Yeah.

45:32

>> And it said we can compromise inch by

45:34

inch their ability to regulate us and

45:36

prevent a tragedy of the commons by

45:39

throwing money at them.

45:40

>> Yep. And now billionaires, the 900

45:43

billionaires in the United States are

45:44

responsible for 19% of the pack giving.

45:47

>> Was that number? So I think you should

45:48

ask Taler Rico about this. I'm sorry.

45:50

You should let him talk about this

45:52

issue. I mean ultimately it's this is

45:55

not a good situation for all of us. And

45:57

they someone came up to me the other day

45:59

and who had been critical of my book

46:00

being too hard on Silicon Valley

46:02

burnbook and they said, "I have to

46:05

apologize. You weren't hard enough." And

46:07

I was like, "You're absolutely [ __ ]

46:09

right." All right, Scott. Let's go on a

46:11

quick break. When we come back, what

46:12

Barry Diller is saying about CNN.

46:15

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47:28

Scott, we're back with more news. Barry

47:29

Diller is speaking out about wanting to

47:31

buy CNN and what he would do with it. In

47:33

a new interview, Diller says it uh CNN

47:35

hasn't been managed optimally and had

47:37

enormous in and it's has enormous

47:39

potential to influence. He says he told

47:41

Warner Brothers CEO David Zazoff all

47:43

this. Let's listen.

47:44

>> I said to him, I don't think your

47:46

programming I I don't think it's being

47:47

optimally programmed. I don't think it's

47:49

competitive. Now, by the way, the facts

47:52

uh support that. Uh meaning that its

47:56

ratings have declined, its revenue has

47:58

declined.

48:00

Still is quite profitable. But how would

48:02

you alter it?

48:04

>> Oh, in every way.

48:07

Look, feel, and see. Every way.

48:12

And I mean, I hope I get the chance. I

48:13

don't think I will, but I hope I do.

48:16

>> Um, I'm not sure when this was, but I I

48:17

I texted him. Um, he said this not

48:20

happening. He said, "Not that now that

48:22

the Ellison's have it." Um, and they and

48:24

he quite correctly, and I happen to know

48:26

this, they're going to combine CNN and

48:28

CBS. Um, he doesn't think he has a

48:31

chance. I would love to work for Barry

48:33

D. He's much more conservative than I

48:35

am, but um I would certainly love he's

48:38

such a good programmer. He's such an

48:40

interest

48:42

journalism even if he gets mad at it

48:43

sometimes. He's someone I I appreciate

48:46

in that regard. Um and it would I wrote

48:49

him. I said, "Can you please?" And he's

48:51

there's no way. So I can I can knock

48:53

this one out of the water. He can't do

48:54

it unless Please, Ellison, sell it to

48:57

Barry Diller. Please, that would be

48:59

great. So, any thoughts?

49:02

>> I would love to see Barry Dillard

49:03

partnered with Jeff Zucker and a private

49:05

equity firm. And I think there's more a

49:08

greater likelihood than people believe

49:10

that the Ellison's might say this is too

49:12

big a headache.

49:14

>> We might just sell a combined CBS and

49:16

CNN to someone else because I think that

49:19

I'm not sure and maybe I'm being naive

49:21

here. I'm not sure they're as Mavian as

49:23

people think about trying to control the

49:25

world. Um, I don't know, but maybe they

49:28

have some grand vision for how they

49:29

integrated into Tik Tok, but I I can't

49:31

imagine Larry Ellison is as smart as he

49:33

is. Isn't going to say this is going to

49:36

be more a headache than it's worth.

49:38

>> No, they wanted the studios. I I I

49:39

agree. They're not quite as madilian.

49:41

They they they're just opportunistic, I

49:44

would say. I I you know, Ellison was was

49:47

democratic.

49:48

>> You're the third richest man in the

49:49

world by focusing on on economics. And I

49:52

think that

49:53

>> anyways, I think he makes a lot of

49:55

money. Diller is correct. It makes

49:56

>> the time margins. But I did some

49:58

analysis here because I just wanted to

49:59

show you like one talk about some

50:03

numbers of cable news. I spent a decent

50:04

amount of time last night uh on AI

50:08

looking at ratings and viewership and

50:10

essentially what I did was just to give

50:12

you a sense for the ecosystem and also I

50:15

never miss a chance to make pivot look

50:17

good.

50:18

>> It is good.

50:19

>> I looked at gross viewership. That is

50:21

the number or listenership. That's the

50:23

number of people who watch a program and

50:25

then see it on YouTube or on social or

50:28

download the audio and listen to it. And

50:30

actually listens are more valuable than

50:32

views because it's a more intimate

50:33

experience. And that's why

50:35

>> that's why you get higher CPMs on

50:37

podcast right now than you get on cable

50:39

TV. CPM is the cost per thousand viewers

50:42

an advertiser is willing to pay. So

50:44

let's look at gross viewership. the

50:46

number of times someone or the number of

50:48

people that watch the program, see it on

50:50

YouTube or somewhere else or listen to

50:52

the podcast version of it.

50:54

>> Fox News averages during prime time.

50:57

>> Fox

50:58

>> Fox Okay.

50:58

>> Fox News during prime time averages 2.1

51:02

million in gross viewership.

51:03

>> Mhm.

51:04

>> This is staggering. CNN 660,000.

51:08

>> Mhm.

51:09

>> Fox is kicking the [ __ ] out of CNN.

51:13

>> Yes. Pivot's gross viewership is

51:15

375,000.

51:17

>> CNBC is 252,000.

51:21

Now,

51:22

that's a bit of a a misnomer. It's

51:24

important, but what advertisers care

51:27

about, they don't care about kids. They

51:29

don't care about seniors. They care

51:31

about people aged 25 to 54 who are

51:33

buying kids, houses, and cars and in

51:35

their mating years.

51:36

>> This is a single pivot, not two together

51:38

of the week, right?

51:39

>> This is one show.

51:40

>> One show. single show.

51:42

>> We do two a week, but go ahead.

51:43

>> This is one show.

51:44

>> Mhm.

51:44

>> So, in the core demo, that's adults 25

51:47

to 54.

51:48

>> Mhm.

51:49

>> Okay. Well, let me let me let me let me

51:52

start here, which will explain that

51:53

number. Let's look at the median viewer

51:55

age.

51:56

>> Fox News, the median is 69,

52:00

>> CNN at 67, CNBC at 63.

52:03

>> Pivot, the median age is 42.

52:07

>> 42. So which leads you to believe as you

52:10

should that the number the percentage of

52:13

viewers in the core demographic for

52:16

these institutions or for the cable guys

52:18

and CNBC is somewhere between 20 and

52:19

30%. For pivot it's 70%. Meaning the

52:24

number of people listening or watching

52:27

these program listening to or watching

52:29

these programs in the core demo that

52:31

advertisers care about CNBC gets 63,000

52:35

people on average watching programming

52:37

who are in the core demo.

52:39

>> CNN gets 135,000.

52:42

Fox gets 197,000

52:45

and Pivot gets 233,000.

52:48

>> We beat them in the demo.

52:49

>> So we're getting more people in the core

52:51

demo. And then which leads to the

52:53

following. Our average CPM

52:56

>> Mhm.

52:56

>> according to Ray Chow, Ultimate Nice Guy

52:58

and New Father.

52:59

>> Mhm.

52:59

>> From Vox, we get a CPM of $45.

53:05

The word I've heard from CNN is they get

53:08

between$ 13 and $17. I don't know what

53:10

Fox gets.

53:11

>> Mhm.

53:12

>> So, just to give you a sense, Oh, and

53:15

let's talk about median household income

53:17

>> and cost of doing business, but go

53:19

ahead. Yeah. You want to reach wealthy

53:21

people. Wealthy people are now

53:23

responsible for 50% of consumer

53:24

spending. They have more discretionary

53:25

income, right?

53:27

>> Fox News, the average household, the

53:29

median household income is $60,000.

53:32

CNN 65, CNBC 85.

53:37

>> That's not

53:38

>> Pivot

53:39

150 because we get a very techheavy high

53:41

paid audience. So, it's pretty obvious

53:46

why cable news, Fox is actually doing

53:49

pretty well,

53:50

>> but cable news as a whole

53:52

>> is dying.

53:54

>> Yeah,

53:54

>> it's literally dying. So, Barry Diller

53:57

saying he wants a new look and a new

53:59

feel, what I would suggest is unless you

54:01

can pick it up at distressed pricing and

54:04

consolidate it with a bunch of other

54:06

stuff, I think Barry's falling into the

54:08

same trap that a lot of people fall

54:09

into, and that is nostalgia is not a

54:11

strategy. I don't think there's any I

54:14

don't think there's any coming back.

54:15

That's not to say

54:18

>> the these come

54:19

>> they're too expensive. I mean, you

54:21

didn't even figure in costs. Our costs

54:23

are basement compared to all their cost.

54:25

>> Oh, the gross margins.

54:26

>> Yeah.

54:27

>> I mean, then then it gets it goes from

54:29

ugly to worse.

54:30

>> Yeah. What's interesting is there there

54:33

there's it's a it's still a great brand

54:35

and I agree with you about the

54:37

romanticism and he happens to be even

54:40

today at his he's much older is still

54:43

the best programmer around. He's been

54:45

>> No, he's he's a legend in the world of

54:47

media.

54:47

>> But not just that. I don't I've never

54:49

seen him think like oh I

54:51

>> Yeah, but so is John Malone and he

54:52

hasn't been able to figure it out.

54:54

>> I agree. I agree. But I'm just saying I

54:56

I I wouldn't like just say oh he's just

54:58

being romantic. I I've had discussions

54:59

with him. He's got some great ideas and

55:01

I agree it's a real problem. It's a I

55:03

would spin it off and see what Zucker

55:05

and Diller could do cuz I both of them

55:07

very good. They have a lot of ideas and

55:09

bring in people who have great ideas and

55:12

what would you do with it if if they

55:14

said here is this. This is what you have

55:16

Scott. What would you do with it? I know

55:18

you have just an anathema to television.

55:20

I know that. But um I it's an

55:23

interesting I think it's what he knows

55:25

best and it would be interesting. I

55:27

think he would be an interesting owner.

55:29

It's he says it's not happening. Um but

55:32

uh but it's nice that he's bringing it

55:34

up. I think Well, sorry. And by the way,

55:35

speaking of our demo, of our young demo,

55:38

42 means there's a lot of people on the

55:40

very young side. A lovely young man

55:42

named Evan, last night I was going into

55:44

this party for Hank Pollson was like, "I

55:46

love Pivot. Say hi to Scott." And I was

55:48

like, and and was like,

55:50

>> "That is a very young person. I get

55:51

stopped by very young people, very old

55:54

people. um middle most much in the

55:57

middle and very different people and I

55:58

really Evan I really appreciate all the

56:00

nice things you said about the show uh

56:03

because we we like all our different

56:04

fans but you're right the age thing is

56:06

important all kinds of stuff anyway

56:09

we'll see anyway Barry good luck um all

56:12

right we're not going to be buying it

56:13

and I won't go off on my craziness like

56:15

I did with the post um all right Scott

56:17

one more quick break we'll be back for

56:19

predictions

56:21

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57:26

>> Okay, Scott, let's hear a prediction.

57:28

You you sort of mentioned it. What is

57:30

it? What is it? Oh, one thing. I predict

57:32

we're going to have a great time at

57:33

South by Southwest. All right. That's my

57:34

prediction.

57:35

>> That's what you're predicting always.

57:36

All right. So, my prediction is

57:40

essentially um I think the markets this

57:43

year are going to go down. Uh dangerous.

57:48

I think I think we're

57:49

>> I think we're on the precipice of like

57:51

a10 trillion dollar wipeout.

57:54

>> Whoa.

57:54

>> Um

57:55

>> really.

57:56

>> Oh yeah.

57:57

>> Tell all.

57:58

>> Well, not and by the way, I get this

58:00

wrong all the time. This is not

58:01

financial advice, but I don't think it's

58:03

from Iran. It's from what comes after

58:05

Iran.

58:07

Um and this is this is the chain

58:10

reaction here. Uh, I don't think oil is

58:14

going to I think oil is not going to be

58:16

at 150 bucks, but it's going to be it's

58:19

it's going to be

58:21

sustainably higher. It's going to be

58:23

elevated through the rest of the year.

58:25

And inflation in some markets reignites.

58:28

The Fed can't cut rates. They're trapped

58:31

um to inspire the economy because

58:33

they're worried about inflation. I think

58:35

corporate earnings are really impaired

58:37

as consumers stop spending

58:40

because some of them will be paying five

58:41

bucks a gallon for gas and their 401k

58:44

will start to decline and Q2 earning

58:47

season becomes bad and then what CEOs do

58:50

when things are sort of bad is they

58:51

throw in the kitchen sink and they'll

58:53

make it look like a blood bath just to

58:54

get all the bad [ __ ] out.

58:56

>> That's a good idea actually.

58:57

>> But the real contagion

58:59

>> uh here is going to be from emerging

59:01

markets. I think there's a decent chance

59:03

that Pakistan and Egypt default as well

59:07

as Sri Lanka and Bangladesh

59:09

>> dollar denominated debt very energy

59:11

dependent very fragile economies

59:14

>> because they all they all there's this

59:16

domino effect in those markets because

59:17

they can't afford oil imports and their

59:19

dollar denominated debt just becomes

59:21

unpayable

59:23

and then the real downward spiral starts

59:26

European banks holding that emerging

59:28

market debt start announcing write downs

59:32

um foreign banks, Deutsche Bank, BMP,

59:35

Pariba, all hugely exposed. Credit

59:37

spreads blow out and we get sort of a

59:41

not this to the same extent, but we get

59:42

an '08 style which bank is next moment

59:47

except this time it's happening while

59:50

the US is fighting a war we started for

59:52

no reason,

59:53

>> right?

59:54

>> Uh other than Scott, it's an excursion.

59:57

>> Well,

59:57

>> I'm teasing you. It's war. And well,

59:59

that's the mistake here is it should

60:00

have been a special it should have been

60:02

a military combat operation. Instead,

60:04

they've turned it into a war with no

60:06

objectives. But anyways,

60:08

by August, the narrative shifts shifts

60:11

from transitory war shock to holy [ __ ]

60:15

we may have broken the global financial

60:17

system. The S&P is off 20 to 40% from

60:21

its peak. Bitcoin goes to like 30,000.

60:25

Um, and you know, and quite frankly, the

60:27

only thing that probably goes up is

60:29

canned goods and ammunition

60:31

>> and Chevron. Um,

60:34

>> well, that's a scenario.

60:36

>> Happy South by Southwest.

60:38

>> But, but it's going to start, the

60:41

prediction is the following. It's going

60:42

to start, the contagion is going to

60:43

start in emerging markets that can't

60:45

afford

60:47

>> oil and uh, their debt is dollar

60:50

denominated. It's just a toxic cocktail.

60:52

It's a very accurate prediction, I have

60:54

to say.

60:55

>> So, and the problem is we've shot so

60:58

many bullets with our debt and printing

61:01

money that um the ECB and the Federal

61:05

Reserve doesn't have the same firepower

61:07

to try and lift us out of this.

61:10

>> Mhm.

61:10

>> So, in other words, it could be like a

61:12

an08 shock, but the problem is we we

61:15

have less ammunition for a bailout.

61:17

>> Yeah. Yep. With the tariffs, with the

61:19

debt, with everything. I mean, you know,

61:21

one of the things that uh did you hear

61:23

James Carville saying, "I don't have

61:24

enough Trump derangement syndrome. I

61:26

want more. I should, you know, I'm so

61:28

furious at this [ __ ] He was screaming

61:30

this what he has done here with this

61:32

Iran." And it all, as you have noted

61:34

many times, links back to Epstein again,

61:37

right? It links back to this guy.

61:39

>> He's the guy in every room

61:40

>> in every room. I think you're absolutely

61:42

right that this everything is motivated

61:45

by either people want to get before

61:47

while the getting's good or for

61:49

themselves or a an un unhealthy need to

61:54

hold on to power in a demented way like

61:58

I I remember when Elon said that one

61:59

time if Democrats it's an existential

62:02

crisis for the world if Democrats win.

62:04

Actually, as I always say,

62:07

every accusation is a confession. We're

62:09

in an existential crisis because of

62:11

these greedy [ __ ] and because of the

62:14

the need to hold on to power over

62:16

everything and it's going to it has

62:17

reverberations around the world.

62:19

>> There's some really interesting tax

62:20

proposals. Senator Booker proposed

62:22

basically a tax holiday for young people

62:25

which I which I love. Not that expensive

62:29

because young people don't make that

62:31

much money. Mhm.

62:32

>> We need to level up young people who are

62:34

24% less wealthy than they were 40 years

62:36

ago versus old people who are 72%

62:38

wealthier. And then

62:40

>> for the first time I saw a wealth tax

62:43

>> that could potentially

62:46

make sense. But instead of going after

62:47

billionaires

62:48

>> Mhm.

62:49

>> they should be going after anybody or

62:52

everybody that say has a well, you know,

62:54

more than call it $und00 million,

62:57

>> right?

62:58

>> You get no happiness. your kids will get

62:59

no incremental happiness from inheriting

63:01

that much money.

63:01

>> Billionaires were helping you lift your

63:03

wallets. Um,

63:04

>> and it should be it should be annual and

63:06

it should be small enough

63:07

>> such that people don't have to liquidate

63:09

assets

63:10

>> or move to Florida like

63:12

>> Yeah, it has to be federal.

63:13

>> Starbucks is just has to be federal.

63:15

You're absolutely right. That's great.

63:17

Okay. All right. We're going to talk

63:18

about that. That's going to be one of

63:19

our big topics at South by Southwest. We

63:21

Anyway, we want to hear from you. Send

63:23

us your questions about business tech or

63:25

whatever is on your mind. Go to

63:26

nymag.com/pivot

63:28

to submit a question for the show or

63:29

call 85551 pivot elsewhere in the Karen

63:32

Scott universe. I'm going to get serious

63:34

for a second. Monday I published a story

63:35

that I think I'm the most proud of of

63:37

anything I've done in a very long time.

63:39

I sat down with three Epstein survivors

63:41

who've been pushing for more

63:42

transparency with on on with career

63:44

survivor uh Liz Stein who's also a

63:47

survivor of childhood uh sexual abuse

63:50

said her desire to help her younger self

63:52

fuels her advocacy work. Let's listen to

63:54

a clip. It would be irresponsible of me

63:58

to have this position and to not use it

64:02

so that others did not feel alone in

64:05

this. Because if I could go back and

64:07

tell myself anything, it would be to

64:10

tell someone. And if they don't listen,

64:12

tell someone else. And just keep telling

64:14

until people listen to you. And even if

64:17

you feel like they don't, be proud of

64:19

yourself because you at least were able

64:22

to sit in your uncomfortable truth when

64:24

other people weren't. And that's really

64:26

what fuels me doing this advocacy, being

64:28

the person that I wish was there for me

64:31

when I needed them most. This was a

64:33

great show. They actually got to talk a

64:35

lot about it. Often you get these

64:36

shorter interviews. It was really very

64:39

moving. I dare I just listen to it. I

64:42

know everyone goes, "Oh, goodness."

64:43

>> Yeah. You can hear the emotion in her

64:44

voice.

64:45

>> Such dignity. such incredible strength,

64:48

such heroic behavior in in the face of

64:50

adversity. And uh you know, it was a lot

64:54

of I've gotten a lot of feedback that's

64:56

been I really appreciate, but it was all

64:58

these women. They were astonishing. It

64:59

has nothing to do with me, but I let

65:01

them talk and you should listen to what

65:03

they have to say as she said. Anyway,

65:05

that's the show. Uh thanks for listening

65:07

to Pivot. Be sure to like and subscribe

65:09

to our YouTube channel. We'll be back

65:11

next week.

Interactive Summary

The video discusses the escalating war in Iran, its impact on oil prices, and the global supply disruption. It highlights the US government's response, including an incorrect statement about a naval escort and a mistaken missile strike on an Iranian school, which has caused internal political strife. The conversation also touches on the broader economic consequences of the conflict, affecting countries dependent on oil imports, and the geopolitical advantage gained by Russia. A significant portion of the discussion is dedicated to the legal and ethical battles faced by Anthropic, an AI company, as the Pentagon designates it a supply chain risk, leading to a lawsuit. The video explores the potential for AI to assist in violent acts and the differing approaches of AI companies in handling such requests. Finally, it delves into the decline of traditional cable news, the struggles of media conglomerates like CNN, and contrasts the business models and audience demographics of various news outlets, including the podcast "Pivot". The segment concludes with predictions of a market downturn and economic instability, particularly in emerging markets, and a personal reflection on the importance of empathy and investing in relationships over purely economic returns.

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