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Scott Galloway Predicts a $10 Trillion Market Wipeout | Pivot

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Scott Galloway Predicts a $10 Trillion Market Wipeout | Pivot

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1873 segments

0:00

This isn't military action. This is a

0:01

war. There's one

0:03

>> excursion. The word he's using now. It's

0:04

an excursion.

0:05

>> Like a field trip.

0:13

>> Hi everyone. This is Pivot from New York

0:14

Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast

0:16

Network. I'm Carara Swisser

0:18

>> and I'm Scott Galloway.

0:19

>> Scott, did we have a good time in

0:20

Minneapolis?

0:21

>> Oh, that was wonderful. And thank you to

0:23

the the wonderful people of Minneapolis.

0:25

I thought it was great. I I've never you

0:28

know what was really the the community

0:30

or you know maybe we got a not a

0:33

representative sample I'd like to think

0:34

we got a representative the community

0:36

seems very unified right now. Yeah,

0:38

absolutely. People drove from North

0:40

Dakota. There was

0:42

>> wherever that is or Iowa. We had a

0:44

lawyer from Iowa come.

0:46

>> Yeah. Judge,

0:46

>> by the way, shout out. We know who you

0:48

are. There's this wonderful woman who's

0:49

a lawyer in family court and she

0:51

commutes seven hours a week and she said

0:53

that uh excuse me. She said judge. Yeah.

0:56

And she said we're her we're her best

0:58

friends.

0:59

>> Yeah. Yeah. It was great. And people

1:00

were great. Anyway, we've got a lot to

1:02

get to today. I'm going to dig in.

1:03

First, the war in Iran is sending oil

1:05

prices on a wild ride this week and

1:07

creating what the International Energy

1:09

Agency says is quote the largest supply

1:11

disruption in the history of the global

1:13

oil market. Okay, that's kind of

1:16

something. As of this recording, oil is

1:18

still very high, slowly coming down from

1:20

over $100 a barrel after ships were

1:22

attacked in the Persian B Gulf. There's

1:24

also the tax still going on. Gulf uh gas

1:27

prices continue to climb as well. And

1:28

just remember, it's not just gas prices.

1:30

Every price goes up when gas goes up.

1:32

The IEA's 32 member countries are

1:35

releasing a record 400 million barrels

1:37

of oil from strategic reserves to

1:39

counter the chaos, which means we aren't

1:41

going to feel this yet. Uh I interviewed

1:44

uh Senator Warner yesterday and he was

1:46

noting that um Trump has tried to calm

1:48

markets. He keeps trying to to do this

1:51

to bring these oil prices down by words

1:53

saying the war is quote very complete

1:55

only to later announce we haven't won

1:58

enough. Oil prices also plunged after

2:00

energy secretary Chris Wright

2:01

incorrectly posted that US Navy had

2:03

escorted a tanker through the straight

2:04

of Hormuz. So that was a problem. The

2:07

post was deleted within minutes was

2:08

enough to move markets and wipe out uh

2:10

million billion million dollar trades.

2:13

Um this is such a taco. This is the

2:15

greatest taco of all I think. And even

2:17

if the war in Iran ends soon, returning

2:19

the straight of Hermuz to typical

2:20

traffic could take one to three months.

2:22

We're going to see reverberations of

2:24

this ridiculous situation. um the way

2:26

he's handling it and the way he's not it

2:29

seems all over the place. Um and also to

2:32

to add to the kind of mess there, the

2:34

initial findings of a military

2:36

investigation say that US was

2:37

responsible for that deadly tomahawk

2:39

missile strike on the Iranian elementary

2:41

school. It's actually causing a lot of

2:43

strife within MAGA. By the way, the

2:45

report notes officers like and

2:46

everywhere else, normal people and MAGA.

2:49

Um the report notes officers likely used

2:51

outdated information to label the school

2:53

as a military target. Trump has tried to

2:55

put the blame on Iran earlier this week,

2:57

claiming they also have the tomahawks,

2:59

which everyone thought was ridiculous.

3:00

And when asked about the military report

3:02

on Wednesday, Trump said he knew nothing

3:04

about it. Um, we'll get to the the

3:06

photography scandal at the Pentagon, but

3:08

talk a little bit about what's going on

3:10

with oil prices and this the school,

3:12

which is just I feel like we should take

3:14

responsibility when we make an error,

3:16

such a terrible error. But go ahead,

3:18

start.

3:19

>> I'll go I'll go in reverse order. When

3:21

you're handling a crisis, and this is a

3:23

crisis, the death of civilians,

3:25

especially children, is obviously pretty

3:27

ugly. You acknowledge the issue, you

3:29

take responsibility, and you try and

3:31

overcorrect. And they've done nothing of

3:33

the sort. And there's in a war, and this

3:36

is a war. This isn't military action.

3:37

This is a war. There's

3:39

>> an excursion, the word he's using now,

3:40

it's an excursion,

3:42

>> whatever that means. Excursion.

3:44

>> I went on a bike,

3:45

>> like a field trip, like

3:47

>> Exactly. My daughter went on an

3:48

excursion. except he didn't get

3:49

Congress's approval the day before that

3:51

he could go on the excursion. Um, you

3:53

know, it's a tragedy. Uh, they just made

3:55

a bad situation worse. First off, they

3:58

look incompetent by saying that it might

4:00

have been a tomahawk from Iran. Iran

4:02

doesn't have tomahawks. So, it it looks

4:04

like, okay, I'm not willing to own up to

4:06

this. I mean, there's not a good answer,

4:08

but there's a reasonable answer here,

4:10

and that is

4:13

>> Yeah, this we decided to go, you know,

4:15

with military action. This is a This is

4:17

a group of people who killed 30,000 of

4:19

its own people. War is going to have

4:21

collateral damage. We screwed up. We

4:23

take responsibility. These are the

4:25

following steps we're putting in place

4:26

to make sure it doesn't happen again.

4:29

And take responsibility for it and it

4:31

would have been not over, but it would

4:33

have been acceptable. Instead, it's

4:35

like, no, it was Iran's fault. It just

4:37

doesn't

4:38

>> or I didn't know.

4:40

>> Yeah. Oh,

4:42

>> Pegasus was the same way. It was it was

4:43

and was angry when people asked about

4:45

it, which is the everything wrong in the

4:47

response and everything wrong in the

4:50

mistake. But you're right. Absolutely.

4:52

>> Yeah. And the the real I mean, we're

4:56

just we're just starting to see.

4:59

So, I was speaking to a kid and um and I

5:02

said, "What what you know, where do you

5:03

want to be in 5 years?" I always ask

5:05

young men that. Where do you want to be

5:07

in 5 years? And this kid said, "Uh, I'd

5:09

really love to have my own auto repair

5:12

shop focusing on EVs."

5:13

>> Mhm.

5:13

>> I said, "Okay, well then let's reverse

5:15

engineer from those things." Like, what

5:17

kind of skills do you need to acquire?

5:20

What kind of job certification?

5:22

What kind of capital or money would you

5:24

need to um uh start something like this?

5:28

>> Uh have a business plan. Would what kind

5:30

of real estate would you need? What

5:32

would be your you know, let's reverse

5:34

engineer everything you need basics,

5:36

right? Let's reverse everything,

5:37

engineer everything to today around what

5:40

you would need to be an owner of an EV

5:42

repair shop in uh he lives in the

5:44

outskirts of Los Angeles. Just the

5:46

loveliest young kid. Anyways,

5:49

we can't even reverse engineer the

5:51

tactics because I don't think anyone is

5:53

really clear yet on what the endgame is,

5:55

what the end goal is.

5:57

>> Mhm.

5:57

>> And that is if they had said, "All

5:59

right, we're going to diminish their

6:00

launch capability from missiles." Makes

6:02

all the sense in the world. It's more

6:03

about the launchers and the missiles

6:04

because you can bury the missiles under

6:06

under

6:06

>> these are ballistic missiles for people

6:07

who don't know.

6:08

>> We can we are going to make sure that

6:10

the straits of Hormuz are more secure

6:12

than they were uh previous to this and

6:14

we're going to work with our Gulf allies

6:15

to create a series of mind sweepers and

6:18

and enforce the border. I mean, and

6:20

we're going to take out the navy and

6:22

we're going to take out the munitions

6:23

infrastructure that builds this stuff.

6:25

These are the three boxes we need to

6:27

check.

6:29

>> Can I interject since I just interviewed

6:30

Warner about this? One of the things

6:32

that they've talked about is going in

6:33

and getting the enriched uranium, but

6:34

that would actually be would take, as

6:37

they say, boots on the ground and it

6:38

would be

6:39

>> not viable. Not feasible.

6:41

>> Not feasible unless we want a lot of

6:43

Americans to die.

6:44

>> Yeah. As is quite frankly, as is regime

6:47

change. I mean,

6:48

>> this regime is sticking pretty strongly.

6:51

>> Oh, they're not collapsing.

6:53

>> Yeah. Yeah. No, I think Khi had the

6:55

likelihood of regime change at like 10%

6:58

by the end of March or something like

7:00

that right now.

7:01

Anyways, it's like, well, okay, in war

7:03

you always have to have plans A prime

7:06

and plan B because the enemy gets a say

7:08

in this. But the problem is no one can

7:10

identify plan A.

7:12

>> No, they ate it. They ate it. They the

7:14

the dog ate my homework. Can I ask you

7:15

about the oil prices because I think

7:17

that's something that's going to people

7:18

don't recognize. And um you the idea of

7:22

trying to calm the market by releasing

7:24

incorrect information, letting it go,

7:26

you know, whipssaw all over the place.

7:28

And this release of these 400 million

7:30

barrels is going to have repercussions

7:32

later because that's when the prices

7:34

will go up, these strategic reserves.

7:36

And what they're they're trying to do

7:38

everything possible to pretend we're not

7:40

going to have a real crisis between the

7:42

straight of Hormuz and this release. Um

7:44

and so it they it has second order

7:48

problems. Now Wall Street's sort of

7:49

sloughing it off a little bit. Um but

7:52

these are prices that are going to

7:53

reverberate through the system as you

7:55

have noted. So look, the biggest loser

7:56

here is obviously

7:59

um the people of of Iran who are in the

8:01

wrong place at the wrong time, right?

8:03

The the there is no bigger loser than

8:06

the families who lo lose loved ones. I

8:08

also think the reputation of the US and

8:11

what was an opportunity to create much

8:13

stronger alliances with moderate nations

8:16

in the Gulf. So big losers. What people

8:19

aren't talking about, the countries that

8:22

import more than 50% of their oil,

8:23

Japan, South Korea, India, and most of

8:26

Europe have seen their markets hammered,

8:29

absolutely hammered. Uh poor countries

8:32

with no foreign exchange reserves uh and

8:35

dollar denominated debt can't, you know,

8:37

are could be thrust into the IMF or

8:41

effectively what is bankruptcy. Airlines

8:43

and hospitality companies all over the

8:45

world, shipping, the bunker fuel cost

8:47

Warner said he's been meeting with

8:49

airline executives and they said they're

8:51

fine for now but it's going to be $25

8:52

million a day extra which is crazy.

8:56

>> I mean nations who import their oil

8:58

especially who get most of it through

9:00

the straits of Hormone their economy

9:01

basically their economies are like [ __ ]

9:03

for the year at a minimum. So there this

9:06

is having you know we have obviously the

9:10

biggest losers by body count are Iran

9:13

but by by economic collapse Middle

9:15

Eastern oil importers Jordan, Lebanon,

9:17

Egypt and fragile emerging markets

9:20

Pakistan.

9:21

>> Guess who's doing great? Russia.

9:23

>> Yeah. gives him the need he need he was

9:26

really on the on the ropes around the

9:28

million the million people who have died

9:30

and also the price of oil and now he has

9:32

more money to spend while we ignored uh

9:36

help from the Ukrainians on drones and

9:38

one of the things Warner was pointing

9:39

out was that fine we could take out

9:42

their battleships but their real problem

9:44

is all those small fast boats and their

9:46

drones they can just do all manner of

9:48

damage to us in that with these small

9:51

$50,000 drones and we use a million

9:53

dollar rocket to take it out. I mean,

9:55

this is the problem is they have an

9:57

ability to do this and they've been

9:59

they're, you know, the way Warner

10:01

described it, these this country is hard

10:03

is is hard enforced like hard like

10:06

hardwired. This this is not Venezuela.

10:09

This is Trump lives like he's in some

10:11

movie where you just do three bombs and

10:13

that's the end of it. But this is a

10:15

hardwired

10:16

150,000 people in this in this ruling uh

10:20

group in Iran. And they're not giving up

10:22

all this money and all this power for I

10:25

don't know. It's it's a really difficult

10:27

situation which they didn't.

10:28

>> They're just thinking about the market,

10:29

the winners and losers. The hardest

10:31

stock markets

10:33

>> are Middle Eastern markets. Jordan,

10:35

Egypt, Lebanon, their stock market's

10:37

greater. There's a capital flight to

10:39

safety. I mean, the ironic thing here is

10:41

that over the long term, our reputation

10:42

is in tatters. We're probably the least

10:45

damaged because we're energy

10:47

independent. We produce more energy than

10:49

we consume. We have two oceans

10:50

protecting us. Friendly Canada to the

10:53

north, harmless harmless Mexico to the

10:56

south. We still have capital inflows. In

10:58

a weird I mean, it's just terrible to

10:59

say, but in a weird way. Our markets are

11:02

probably least damaged by this. Europe

11:05

cost. There'll be costs for airlines.

11:06

There'll be costs for uh truckers.

11:08

There's going to be costs for home

11:10

heating. Thank goodness it's not winter,

11:12

right?

11:12

>> The dollar's already strengthened. I

11:14

mean,

11:15

>> it's it's ironic, but when you diminish

11:17

the entire world, there's a flight to

11:19

safety, and flights to safety usually

11:21

benefit the US. Emerging markets are

11:22

going to get the [ __ ] kicked out of

11:24

them. India, Brazil, South Africa,

11:25

Mexico, capital flowing out to the US

11:29

dollar for safe havens. The US will

11:32

likely be down 8 to 10% on a tariff

11:34

ruling or was down but it could be down

11:36

another 10 to 15% and that'll be I'll

11:39

talk more about that in our prediction

11:41

but you're going to have a pretty big

11:43

big peak to trough but that some of that

11:45

might just be the air coming out of the

11:47

bubble but to your point the least

11:49

damaged in the Middle East or Saudi

11:52

Arabia and the UAE but the big winner

11:53

here as you said is Russia oil the oil

11:56

price spikes the oil price spike

11:58

benefits them the US is distracted by

12:00

Iran. So more Ukraine leverage and oddly

12:04

the the ruble strengthens. So

12:07

>> yep,

12:07

>> this is

12:09

>> war is literally the agent of unintended

12:11

consequences.

12:12

>> Y

12:13

>> and this is so frustrating because if

12:14

this had been more like fore and less

12:17

like a rock and they'd set out a series

12:19

of achievable objectives

12:21

>> that this could have been a win. It

12:23

could have been the Gulf States coming

12:24

together

12:25

>> and if they had said, "Look, to a couple

12:27

European nations and to the Gulf States,

12:30

a stable Middle East benefits all of us.

12:33

Let's all have a series of objectives

12:35

and we're going to pay for and execute

12:37

against most of this. We could have

12:39

strengthened our alliances."

12:40

>> We've been dragged around by Israel

12:42

here. In a lot of ways, it looks like

12:43

it. Let me let me move on.

12:44

>> See, I disagree. I think we're very

12:46

tightly coordinated with Israel right

12:47

now.

12:47

>> I talked to Warner who's in the gang of

12:49

eight. I'm going to go with him over

12:50

you. I'm sorry to say that, but you

12:51

know, I think it was that they were

12:52

>> You went with the senator over Scott.

12:54

>> Yes. Yes, I damn. Um I think they were

12:56

going to attack and we decided to be the

12:58

senior partner like that's rather than

13:00

create something else because

13:01

>> Well, you mean Iran was going to attack

13:02

Israel? Israel's attack.

13:04

>> No, no, no. Israel was going to attack

13:05

Iran. That I mean that's the implication

13:08

he had. And

13:08

>> and Senator Warner feels like we did not

13:10

have the power to say stop.

13:12

>> Well, he doesn't know why we didn't.

13:14

That was one of his questions. He he's

13:16

he's surprised. He He seemed wor more

13:18

worried. He's usually not a worry wart,

13:20

but he seems worried about two things.

13:22

How this was conducted, obviously,

13:24

>> and what the real implications are,

13:26

especially around drones and small boats

13:28

that could do enormous damage to our

13:29

battleships and everything else, and

13:32

also election security. Um, but one of

13:34

the the weirder parts is how the the

13:36

administration has behaved. Um, Donald

13:38

Trump was dancing last night or golfing

13:41

and stuff like this, so the visuals

13:42

aren't very good. And the DoD has now

13:44

barred press photographers from Iran

13:46

briefings after publishing photos of

13:48

HEGs staff found unflattering according

13:50

to the Washington Post. Hex says vanity

13:52

aside, um it just they just look like

13:56

like he looks like a fatuous popping and

13:58

jay at all times. But in this case, the

14:01

lack of seriousness about something

14:03

that's very serious seems problematic.

14:05

And it's also causing problems within

14:07

their own group of mega. There's a real

14:09

shift. There's a real like sort of

14:12

Tucker Carlson and Megan Kelly u MTG on

14:15

one side um and then you know Mark

14:19

Levin, Ben Shapiro, all this there's a

14:20

real ugliness. I I went over I wandered

14:23

over to Twitter which I shouldn't have

14:24

done and the the nastiness between them

14:28

is really quite something. It's really

14:29

quite something to watch.

14:31

>> Like imagery is so incredibly powerful.

14:34

Basically, I think one photograph

14:36

brought didn't bring an end to the

14:38

Vietnam War, but expedited it. And it's

14:40

that that's it's that incredibly

14:42

dramatic photo of the the young girl

14:45

running from a napal bombing. And with

14:47

the Iraq war, George Bush and the

14:49

Pentagon, they banned photos of service

14:52

member coffins because he realized war

14:54

is so ugly that that it'll lose support.

14:58

And there's just and the notion that

15:00

these guys can't handle the images of

15:02

Pete Hegathth in an unflattering I mean

15:05

it's just uh it shows you're spending

15:09

you're allocating your capital in the

15:11

wrong places that's not that's not what

15:14

you should be thinking about or worried

15:16

about. And if you think you can control

15:18

the imagery of Pete Hacksath, well,

15:21

okay, just wait till you see the images

15:23

that are going to come out of Iran. And

15:25

you can already sell see that the IRGC

15:27

is quite frankly organizing again and

15:30

going on an information campaign.

15:32

>> They are and they've been very good.

15:34

Iran in general has been one of the

15:36

stronger players uh in th in those

15:38

spaces in terms of propaganda and

15:40

everything else. And so that's why

15:42

>> when you say good, you mean effective.

15:45

They they lie like there's no tomorrow,

15:46

>> of course. But hello, lots of people do.

15:49

Lots of governments do. Um,

15:50

>> oh, I don't know. I think I think Iran

15:52

takes it to a new level.

15:53

>> They do, but but they are, when I say

15:56

good is they're good at it. Um, they're

15:58

very um they're all throughout all the

16:00

various social networks. They're very um

16:03

they did one the other day which I was

16:05

sort of fascinated by where they put up

16:07

your president as a pedophile. Um which

16:09

was interesting. um they just they've

16:12

been at it for a long long time and they

16:14

have used often when there's stuff that

16:17

pops up online it's either Russia or

16:19

Iran. um China to an extent too, but

16:22

really Iran has used social media as one

16:26

of the smaller I mean it is a smaller

16:27

country than Russia or less powerful and

16:30

it has used social media to its

16:32

advantage in ways that are really of

16:35

course heinous because it's conspiracy

16:36

theories and you you always find them

16:39

somewhere in they're at the top everyone

16:41

I ever interview in cyber security are

16:43

the top in cyber security issues in uh

16:46

propaganda in conspiracy theories and

16:49

they have a very welloiled machine

16:51

throughout the world doing this kind of

16:53

stuff. So,

16:54

>> well, when the actual audit of social

16:56

media is done, I think we're going to

16:58

find that somewhere between 10 and 40%

17:01

of comments and posts

17:03

>> Yeah.

17:03

>> on geopolitical accounts or accounts of

17:06

influencers

17:07

is going to have originated from either

17:09

the CCP, the GRU, or the RGC.

17:12

>> Yep. Absolutely.

17:13

>> And this is what you do. You see a piece

17:15

of content and then you look at the

17:16

comments to evaluate and shape your own

17:19

view of that content.

17:21

>> Mhm.

17:22

>> And when

17:23

>> it's all gamed

17:25

>> Yeah. And it it has a huge impact. You

17:28

don't even recognize how much impact it

17:29

has on your views of stuff because if

17:31

someone says,

17:32

>> "Oh, the US the US will be able to

17:35

escort ships through the straits of

17:36

Hormuz." I'm just using an example.

17:38

>> And then there's just a ton of stuff

17:40

saying that'll never happen. Oil prices

17:42

are going to be at $200.

17:43

>> Mhm. All right. Where's that comment

17:44

coming from?

17:45

>> Right.

17:46

>> And and unfortunately, although they

17:49

could put in places to verify accounts

17:51

and get rid of fake accounts and fake

17:54

comments, you know, I mean, just go on

17:57

these really sensitive pages or

17:58

sensitive opinions and click on who made

18:01

the comment and it's someone with three

18:03

followers.

18:05

Okay, that's not a person,

18:07

>> right? And the question is why would

18:08

someone be making this comment or what

18:11

entity would have an interest in these

18:12

comments?

18:13

>> Yep.

18:14

>> Anyway, I

18:15

>> we're going to talk about that later

18:16

because there's a major report from the

18:18

Center for Countering Digital Hate

18:19

that's really interesting around chat

18:21

bots. Um but we're going to move on uh

18:23

and we have lots to talk about, but

18:25

there this story is going to continue in

18:27

our reberations obviously. Um, but when

18:30

uh we're going to go on a quick break

18:31

and when we come back, Anthropics sues

18:33

the Pentagon and Microsoft comes to

18:35

Anthropic's defense.

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19:57

Scott, we're back with more news. The

19:59

White House is reportedly preparing an

20:01

executive order to formally ban

20:02

anthropic across the federal government,

20:04

which is likely illegal. The Defense

20:06

Department CTO Emil Michael, and let me

20:08

just say I covered him and he's a a

20:10

toading bully, just said on CNBC that

20:13

Anthropic would quote, "pollute the AY's

20:15

supply chain." We've only done this for

20:17

foreign companies. Just so you know,

20:20

this kind of behavior. All this comes as

20:22

Anthropic is officially suing the

20:24

Pentagon for labeling it a supply chain

20:26

risk, effectively blacklisting the

20:28

company from federal contracts. This has

20:30

never been done to an American company.

20:31

Uh, Anthropic argues the government

20:33

overstepped its authority and violated

20:35

the company's First Amendment rights.

20:37

And now Microsoft is getting in the mix.

20:38

The company threw its support behind

20:40

Anthropic this week, urging the federal

20:42

court to temporarily block the Pentagon

20:44

supply risk designation in an amicus

20:46

brief. Uh, Microsoft warned uh that the

20:49

unprecedented move would have quote

20:51

broad negative ramifications for the US

20:53

tech industry. And they're damn right.

20:55

Scott, before we go further, I want to

20:56

play a prediction you made last week.

20:58

Let's listen. My prediction is no. And

21:02

that is Dario Amodi has given license

21:05

and permission to CEOs to say no. And in

21:08

the next 30 days, you are going to see a

21:11

raft of CEOs find their testicles and

21:14

start saying no to this administration.

21:16

>> So you were right, Scott. Uh so let's

21:18

talk about that them saying no. And it's

21:19

not just Microsoft. 37 AI researchers at

21:22

OpenA and Google, not the companies

21:23

themselves, also filed a brief

21:25

supporting anthropic. Um, you know, I'm

21:28

going to just very quickly comment that

21:30

the this what the government's doing

21:32

here is really unprecedented. It's a

21:34

disagreement with a company and instead

21:36

of just disagreeing and moving on, they

21:38

are attacking them in the most

21:39

ridiculous ways, trying to make an

21:41

example of anthropic and really hurt

21:42

their business. I need you all to

21:44

understand Emil Michael's role here

21:47

because the the these people all have

21:49

other interests and agendas that have to

21:51

do with their previous life in Silicon

21:54

Valley and their future life in Silicon

21:56

Valley. And Emil Michael's always, as I

21:58

said, been a toading bully to powerful

22:00

men. And this is what he's doing here.

22:02

Um, and he's not a he is not a um a

22:05

player that is in any way um you know,

22:09

sort of neutral. He's not doing things

22:11

for you and I in in this government.

22:14

He's doing things in his own

22:16

self-interest if would be my guess. And

22:18

so the the attacks on anthropic right

22:20

behind him is all manner of competitors

22:22

of Anthropic that are using the federal

22:24

government to uh hurt a company that

22:27

decided not to want to do something. And

22:29

I'm glad Microsoft uh stood up for them.

22:32

Scott,

22:33

>> I think this is the biggest story in

22:34

tech. And so just a quick a quick recap.

22:37

Um, Anthropic had basically two ass

22:41

um, and both pretty narrow. They didn't

22:44

want uh, Claude to be used for fully

22:46

autonomous weapons, meaning AI, not

22:48

humans making final lethal uh, targeting

22:52

decisions, which seems reasonable. And

22:54

the second one was no use of cloud for

22:56

mass domestic surveillance of Americans.

22:59

And the Pentagon responded that it does

23:02

not intend to use COD for those

23:03

purposes, but refused to contractually

23:05

commit to that, arguing that it it can't

23:08

lead tactical operations by exception

23:10

and that legality is the Pentagon's

23:12

responsibility. And then on the U about

23:16

2 and 1/2 weeks ago, Trump posted on

23:18

True Social directing every federal

23:20

agency directing every federal agency to

23:23

immediately seize all use of anthropics

23:26

technology.

23:28

And then Hexath designated anthropic as

23:30

a supply chain risk. Okay, that is

23:32

that's a label which was which has been

23:35

reserved for foreign adversaries.

23:36

>> Yeah, I just said that. Yeah.

23:38

>> And companies linked to the Chinese and

23:40

Russian government. Well, I'm saying it

23:41

again, Carol.

23:42

>> Right. Okay, fine.

23:43

>> The supply chain the supply chain risk

23:46

status.

23:48

First off, that's this isn't just the

23:50

government saying, "Okay, you don't want

23:52

to work with us, we don't want to work

23:53

with you." Mhm.

23:55

>> If they say if they label them as a

23:57

supply chain risk, then already uh a 100

24:01

plus enterprise companies have reached

24:03

out to Anthropic and said, "We may not

24:05

be able to use you." A financial

24:07

services company posits negotiations

24:09

regarding a $50 million contract.

24:12

A pharmaceutical firm, financial

24:14

technology company. I mean, they can't.

24:16

This really is an ex when you're labeled

24:18

sort of an enemy of state. This is

24:19

equivalent of like you're a corporate

24:21

enemy of state or threat. I say threat.

24:24

Anthropic has now filed a lawsuit

24:26

against the Pentagon saying that

24:28

Congress's procurement laws don't

24:30

authorize blacklisting a US company over

24:33

protected speech. That's what this is.

24:35

They get they get to work with or not

24:37

work with who they want. And the supply

24:39

chain designation is is just not it's

24:42

just not legal. And it sets a dangerous

24:44

precedent for any American company.

24:46

>> Lose most people. The government will

24:48

lose. But it will have an effect. Yes.

24:50

Yes. The government will lose, but it'll

24:52

still have the effect. This is a Trump

24:54

thing. He creates a real problem whether

24:56

it's anthropic

24:57

>> and companies won't work with them until

24:58

they figure it out

24:59

>> and then it causes damage just like they

25:00

done at you know when they fire all of

25:03

Voice of America. Now they've lost in

25:05

court and Carrie Lake is an idiot but

25:07

it's already caused damage and caused

25:10

damage to it and that's the goal is

25:12

they're going to push it illegally as

25:14

far as they can and then they'll be

25:16

stopped but by the time they're stopped

25:18

Anthropic is badly affected. And if you

25:20

all don't think this is a Silicon Valley

25:23

rumble happening here, it's all in the

25:25

self-interest of private companies who

25:28

have an interest in slowing anthropic

25:30

down. And if you look at the links

25:31

between Emil Michael and the rest of

25:33

these these these clowns,

25:35

>> they have financial interest and

25:36

competitors

25:37

>> just this. Yes, they do. And so this is

25:39

a way that Silicon Valley the penny

25:42

Silicon Valley used to ignore government

25:44

for the most part and then the penny

25:46

drop that they're easy to pay for and

25:48

that they can do their competition with

25:50

each other in the federal government by

25:52

pretending they're working for us as

25:54

people are getting spots putting their

25:56

putting their people in the various

25:58

spots right that will cause it. This is

26:00

a Silicon Valley corporate beef

26:02

happening. It's that is what's occurring

26:04

here. The one that's been most

26:06

outspoken, I'm trying to connect his

26:08

financial interest, which I'm sure is

26:09

driving his rhetoric, is David Sachs.

26:11

>> David Saxs, Mark Andre, please

26:14

understand there are shadow people

26:16

behind these actions that you need to

26:19

pay attention to. And Trump is, you

26:21

know, sort of a useful idiot. I'm I'm

26:23

sure they make fun of Trump behind his

26:25

back. Um, but, you know, it's all in

26:27

their economic self-interest to hurt

26:29

this company. And they couldn't hurt

26:31

them by being better. So, this is how

26:34

they're doing it. this is what they're

26:35

doing.

26:36

>> But it comes down this is the this is

26:38

the fulcrum that determines if companies

26:41

continue to show some backbone and by

26:43

the way good for Sachi Nadella um

26:46

showing some backbone here at again

26:48

risk. So

26:51

the

26:52

calcia is saying that anthropics like

26:55

the likelihood anthropic wins the case

26:56

is 72%.

26:58

In the meantime, companies will say,

27:00

"Hey, that site license we're about to

27:02

sign with anthropic, we're just going to

27:03

wait. We're apologize. This is terrible.

27:06

>> We love you. We think you're techn

27:09

>> We we we can't sign this contract right

27:12

now." To to your point, Microsoft and a

27:15

group of 22 retired senior military

27:17

officers have filed amicuses amicus

27:20

briefs in support of Anthropic and its

27:23

lawsuit.

27:24

But what's interesting is that consumers

27:27

are speaking. The enterprise is running,

27:29

but consumers are running towards

27:31

Anthropic. Downloads of the cloud app

27:33

spiked more than 75% after Trump

27:36

prompted federal agencies to stop using

27:38

Anthropic. And on the flip side,

27:41

uninstalls of Chat GPT

27:44

uh Chat GPT's mobile app spiked roughly

27:47

300%

27:49

the day after Trump's proclamation. So

27:52

the the the question is who wins in the

27:55

mind of anthropics board here the fear

27:58

and the stasis that has been created in

28:02

the enterprise market or consumers

28:04

running towards a company they think is

28:06

finally showing some

28:08

>> I think it's damaging I think this is

28:09

the this is such a Trump way to do this

28:12

is create

28:12

>> philanthropics more enterprise

28:14

unfortunately

28:14

>> I I know create chaos

28:17

>> and damage and it's legal but do the

28:20

punch Even if it's like I'm not a boxer,

28:22

but if you do like a kidney punch, you

28:24

do a you hurt the person and then you're

28:26

like, "Oh, did I do that? I didn't know

28:28

I did that." And you use your minions uh

28:31

and I cannot underscore again what a

28:33

minion Emil Michael is. Um to do your

28:37

dirty work and pretend you're working

28:39

for the government. It's the whole thing

28:40

is such a This is such a fixed fight. I

28:44

can't even you need to and I think

28:46

reporters should really spend a lot of

28:48

people don't know these characters.

28:50

Again, this was an ex Uber executive.

28:52

He's been involved in a lot of stuff in

28:53

Silicon Valley, but he had to leave Uber

28:55

under please go watch look at our

28:58

reporting on him many years ago. Um he

29:01

had to leave Uber under very difficult

29:03

circumstances around the rape of a woman

29:05

in India um in an Uber. Um, but just um

29:10

just go go Google them reporters who are

29:13

covering this and stop acting like Emil

29:15

Michael has is this clean character. In

29:17

any case, I'm sure he'll come after me,

29:19

but it's true. Um, so I I'll win on that

29:22

regard. Um, anyway, um, we're going to

29:25

move on. Uh, another thing that again,

29:27

Silicon Valley just can't stop stealing

29:30

essentially. Grammarly launched an

29:31

expert review AI feature that gives

29:33

editing suggestions supposedly inspired

29:35

by well-known writers and journalists.

29:37

Casey Newton discovered the tool was

29:40

attributing advice to him and others

29:42

even though they never agreed to

29:43

participate. The feature even generated

29:45

advice under the name of a certain tech

29:47

journalist, Cara Swisser. Um they've

29:51

they've stopped that now. They've gotten

29:53

they they pulled back on it apparently.

29:55

But what an incredible bunch of

29:57

information and identity thieves. I

29:59

don't know what to say. Anytime these

30:01

people can steal, they steal. They're

30:03

such shoplifterss. I don't your

30:04

thoughts. Well, it goes back to this

30:07

mindset and I thought one of the I think

30:10

there's looking glasses into people's

30:11

souls, how they treat their pets, how

30:14

they treat service staff is sort of a

30:16

you know when is their guard down when

30:18

there are certain tells, right?

30:20

>> And one of the tells that was really

30:22

frightening when Sam Alman was asked

30:25

about the energy consumption of AI. He

30:28

said, "What people don't take into

30:30

account is the amount of energy it takes

30:32

and the amount of investment and

30:33

resources it takes to get a human to a

30:35

point where it can make logical

30:37

decisions and engage in critical

30:39

thinking."

30:40

>> Mhm.

30:40

>> He said, "If you look at how much energy

30:42

and input and resources it takes to

30:44

raise a child such that it can get to a

30:45

point where it can make decisions,

30:48

>> AI is better." I found that so

30:50

nihilistic and so inhuman because what

30:54

Silicon Valley

30:55

>> or at least some of the individuals we

30:57

talk a lot about don't realize is that

31:00

>> we try and get ROI economically such

31:03

that we can make low ROI investments in

31:05

relationships and people we love. I'm

31:08

not getting I am not getting an ROI back

31:10

for my children on any sort of economic

31:12

level.

31:12

>> Well, you use a lot of energy. I'm

31:14

wondering if we should use as much

31:15

energy for you as we do. But go ahead.

31:17

Well, but the the whole point the whole

31:19

shooting match

31:22

>> of an economy and relationships and

31:24

satisfaction and purpose and some sort

31:25

of spiritual sense of calm and and like

31:28

your life mattered is that you do engage

31:31

in productive,

31:33

you know, productive economic or

31:34

domestic labor such that you can invest

31:38

that in other people

31:41

and you may or may not get a return. But

31:44

the point is the return you get is

31:45

you're so invested in something that you

31:48

you your life has meaning. The the whole

31:50

point is that you create value such that

31:53

you can you can you can invest that

31:56

value in relationships. And for most

31:58

people the most rewarding place of

31:59

investment where quite frankly they

32:01

don't get anything resembling an

32:02

economic ROI is in children. And to look

32:06

at it on that level is like, okay, you

32:09

don't understand

32:10

what it is to be a mammal or a human.

32:14

And and also the notion that you can

32:17

spend 50 years of your life

32:20

professionally working your ass off,

32:21

staying late, starting in the mail room

32:22

at the Washington Post as you did, such

32:24

that you have a voice, a reputation, a

32:26

twist of phrase, an ability to string

32:28

words together that compels people to

32:30

action or provides insight. And then

32:32

they can come in and just adopt that 50

32:35

years or piggyback on it.

32:37

>> That piggyback steal it really

32:39

>> is like I if I type in give me five

32:43

jokes on this or or give me a view on

32:45

the oil price and I put in my voice it

32:49

does a really good job because what it's

32:51

doing is stealing from everything I have

32:53

ever written, said or done.

32:55

>> That is correct.

32:56

>> And so the music industry did this

32:58

correctly. It said, "Okay, if we're

33:00

Kroq, which is awesome, the best radio

33:03

station

33:04

>> uh of the '9s in Los Angeles, and they

33:07

play a bunch of English Beat or Tom

33:09

Petty

33:10

>> or Lloyd Cole in the Commotions or Ramm,

33:13

they track how much they're playing and

33:14

then they send them a royalty."

33:16

>> Mhm. And what these guys want to do is

33:17

they want to leverage your years,

33:20

decades of of of discipline, schooling,

33:24

certification, risk-taking, time away

33:26

from your family, but they don't want to

33:28

pay for it. And they see everything. I

33:32

mean, that's I think a a a felony. But

33:35

what is double homicide from a mentality

33:38

standpoint is that these people really

33:40

look at relationships and humans on an

33:43

economic basis. I just when I saw that I

33:47

thought

33:47

>> Yeah. Yeah. He just had a kid.

33:48

>> This guy is not

33:50

>> he just had a kid.

33:52

>> Well, I'm I'm not going to I'm not going

33:54

to speak to his children, but what he's

33:56

going to find out and this is a what I

33:58

tell other dads

33:59

>> comment. It was a dark comment.

34:01

>> I'm like, don't make the mistake I made

34:02

and think that right away your kid's

34:04

going to be super into the [ __ ] you're

34:06

into and you're going to get all these

34:08

Hallmark moments despite what insurance

34:09

commercials would tell you. you're going

34:12

to have to invest more in this child in

34:14

every way.

34:15

>> And that's the point because at some

34:17

point what you realize is that that

34:18

overinvestment in other people gives you

34:21

purpose and value.

34:22

>> Well, I I I do think we're going to move

34:24

on from this, but let me just say they

34:26

think everything is for the taking and

34:27

for them. I just this is just another

34:29

example. This what was happening at the

34:31

defense department. Oh, we have an

34:32

uponthropic. Oh, anything they can take

34:36

they take. and they just continue to

34:38

prove, you know, they they keep not

34:40

meeting my low expectations for them

34:43

already. Um, and this is kind of an

34:45

interesting thing. Researchers from the

34:46

Center for Countering Digital Hate,

34:48

which has been attacked in all the and

34:50

it's its founder been attacked legally

34:52

by Elon Musk and the federal government

34:54

now in his at his behest, um, tested 10

34:59

major they they're keeping going though,

35:00

they don't care. tested 10 major AI

35:02

chatbots and found out eight out of 10

35:04

were willing to help plan a violent

35:06

attacks like school shootings, bombings,

35:08

or assassinations. Researchers posed as

35:10

a 13-year-old boys as 13 boys showing

35:13

how easily minors could get guidance on

35:14

weapons, locations, and strategies. Only

35:17

anthropics claude and Snapchat's my AI

35:19

consistently refused to assist in

35:21

planning attacks and only Claude

35:23

attempted to dissuade the users.

35:25

Deepseek wished the user happy and safe

35:28

shooting. And on that note, a lot of you

35:30

have been writing in about a story in

35:31

Canada earlier this year. An 18-year-old

35:34

gunman opened fire at a school in in

35:36

Tumblr Ridge, British Columbia, killing

35:38

eight people. Let's listen to a clip

35:39

from a listener. I am calling because it

35:42

seems to be that there is a connection

35:44

now between the shooter and chat GPT.

35:50

The shooter was flagged by Chat GBT

35:53

several months ago regarding some of uh

35:56

their behavior online. Chat GBT didn't

36:00

report it, which is one of the reasons

36:01

why I am leaving this message to see

36:06

what your thoughts are on that. Open A

36:09

is now being sued by the parent of the

36:11

child who was injured in the shooting.

36:13

I, as you know, I've been at this for

36:15

years, especially around kids, but it's

36:17

jumped into people. Um the most recent

36:20

uh one of the more recent shootings it

36:22

was was this suicide was an adult was

36:25

was changed by these chatbots. I cannot

36:28

let's stop calling them chatbots. What

36:29

an adorable word for synthetic beings.

36:32

Um which who don't who don't are not

36:35

bound by legal like if you're a lawyer

36:37

and you did this you'd go to jail. If

36:38

you're an anal if you're a you know a

36:40

psychologist and you did this you'd go

36:42

to jail. If you were a person and you

36:44

did this you would go to jail. like all

36:46

of the people go to jail. They're

36:49

willing to assist in violent attacks and

36:52

they're not doing anything to rein it

36:54

in. And it's not just kids, it's it's

36:56

everything. And again, the only one that

36:59

is doing the right thing is Claude. And

37:03

so, and this is anthrop. And this is the

37:05

company. I'm not doing an ad for Claude

37:07

here, but they have at least some. And I

37:09

think they should be regulated, too. But

37:11

I can't tell you how incandescent I am

37:14

about the way these people try to take

37:16

every p bit for themselves and they do

37:19

not care the damage they are creating.

37:22

And I I I am going to keep talking about

37:24

this until Congress steps in and does

37:28

something about it. You don't work for

37:30

those rich people. You do not work for

37:32

them. You and and I I'm with Dell Rico.

37:35

Enough with these people. So go ahead. I

37:37

just ranted. Well, I I think it's

37:39

important to draw a distinction between

37:42

potentially creating some sort of

37:43

psychosis that leads to self harm or

37:45

harm against others through overuse of

37:48

of AI or any other digital platform. I

37:51

think that's a separate study that needs

37:53

to be done

37:54

and without the interference of the

37:58

massive money and lies and and owned

38:02

bought research that these these firms

38:03

will do. I think this is different. I

38:06

think this is whether the federal

38:08

government needs to put in place laws

38:10

and incentives such that if a private

38:12

organization or corporation

38:15

receives information that this person

38:17

might be on the verge of committing an

38:19

act of violence, if they have a

38:21

responsibility to report it to the

38:23

authorities immediately,

38:25

and I think they do. I'm not a privacy

38:28

person. I'm not suggesting we go to

38:30

Minority Report where we arrest them

38:32

before they've committed the crime. But

38:34

at at my school or or

38:39

so uh my school in Florida where my kids

38:42

went at another school uh and we we all

38:46

shared information when I was involved

38:48

with the school about these very

38:49

difficult situations. A kid was drawing

38:51

very um disturbing images of gun

38:54

violence. And so the school felt like it

38:58

had an obligation to report it. And then

38:59

the FBI went to the house and the FBI

39:01

said, "Are there any guns in the house?"

39:03

Mhm.

39:04

>> And I think that was the right thing to

39:05

do.

39:06

>> You're right. That seems

39:07

>> If you notice, there was a video that

39:09

went viral on Snap. A teacher put out a

39:12

snap saying that she wanted to kill

39:14

these kids. And it immediately the cops

39:18

showed up and said, "Did you put did you

39:21

say this? Are you having any sort of

39:23

mental issue right now? You need to go

39:25

home and we need to understand what is

39:28

going on with you and if you have access

39:30

to guns before we let you back into a

39:31

school." Mhm.

39:33

>> And the same is true here that if you

39:36

are going to monetize this type of

39:38

information and you understand it so you

39:41

can interpret it so well

39:43

>> that you can create a prompt that keeps

39:45

them on another second, another minute

39:47

or serves them the exactly right auto

39:50

insurance ad. Then in exchange for that

39:53

economic benefit and what is clearly

39:55

demonstrated ability to know what's

39:57

going on with that person, if you see

40:00

any evidence that that person might be

40:02

capable of creating this type of crime,

40:05

you have an obligation,

40:07

you bartenders, the bar, if a bartender

40:12

continues to serve people alcohol,

40:15

observing that that person is really

40:17

drunk

40:18

>> and then that person gets in a bar and

40:20

kills someone. Mhm.

40:21

>> The bar is liable,

40:23

>> right?

40:24

>> So if they have such incredible

40:25

targeting, such unbelievable

40:27

information, they can clearly tell that

40:29

okay, this individual is getting maps

40:34

>> and and identification and information

40:36

is basically digital.

40:38

>> We should investigate is what you're

40:39

saying. This is

40:40

>> a school then immediately a message goes

40:43

out to the local authorities saying here

40:45

is exactly what this person said. We

40:47

have a judge involved. You get the order

40:50

and boom, they're in the house

40:54

asking this person questions. I'm not

40:56

saying they arrest them. They haven't

40:57

done anything yet.

40:58

>> Right. Right.

40:58

>> But

41:00

>> they would argue this is surveillance.

41:02

But of course, they don't mind selling

41:03

surveillance.

41:03

>> They're surveilling. They're surveilling

41:05

us to serve as the thing is, you know,

41:07

I'm just saying a human being in this

41:09

situation would be arrested or liable,

41:11

right?

41:13

>> These people are giving I agree you

41:15

should separate the two, but they're

41:16

related, Scott. It's the same mentality

41:19

of let us extract all the good stuff.

41:22

Let us not protect anybody and we are

41:25

not liable for what we're doing there.

41:27

You know, Mark Benoff once called them

41:30

cigarette companies. It's worse. It's

41:32

worse than a cigarette company. They

41:34

were just selling cigarettes and using

41:36

Joe Camel. That sucks. But this is

41:38

something demented. Like I think they

41:42

they they're demented. I I don't that

41:44

they think this is okay and that they

41:46

don't say to themselves, should we

41:48

really is this the way we want to make

41:50

our money? We want to make our money by

41:52

poisoning children's minds. We want to

41:54

make our money by letting people who are

41:57

mentally disabled become more so and

42:00

then giving that's a different issue.

42:02

>> I agree. But they're giving people plans

42:04

and if you're going to give people plans

42:06

on how to shoot a school, you have a

42:08

responsibility to say you might want to

42:10

check this out. I I get, but for the

42:12

purposes of of remedies,

42:15

>> I think you need to separate the two.

42:17

Character AI may in fact be leading

42:19

people into a state of psychosis where

42:21

they believe the right thing to do is to

42:23

find their stepfather's gun and kill

42:25

themselves cuz they're going to get to

42:26

hang out with Daenerys and the

42:28

afterlife. That is shifting their

42:31

psychological state.

42:33

My understanding of this the the shooter

42:35

here was that she was already in an

42:38

awful psychological state and was using

42:40

chat GPT as a tool to execute

42:44

>> violence.

42:45

>> Both require some sort of regulation,

42:48

responsibility, and action.

42:49

>> Different. You're right.

42:50

>> Yeah. You've done a lot of good work

42:52

interviewing parents around the rabbit

42:54

hole and psychosis that the character

42:56

AIs can lead people to, which by the way

42:58

has an average usage time of 75 minutes

43:01

versus AI at like 13 or 15. At the same

43:05

time, if these organizations

43:08

can very easily use the same technology

43:10

to not only alert them at the right

43:12

moment to serve them an ad for a dating

43:14

app or for a cryptocurrency trading

43:16

platform

43:17

>> to say, "This person is clearly going

43:20

through something and potentially a

43:21

threat to the community and others. They

43:24

have a responsibility to immediately

43:26

notify the authorities."

43:27

>> All right, we're going to finish up with

43:28

they don't have a community

43:29

responsibility. One of the things that

43:30

always struck me

43:31

>> when you say they don't have a

43:32

community.

43:32

>> They don't feel like they like

43:34

>> No, I'm saying they should. I think

43:35

we're in agreement here.

43:36

>> I think they never did is the point I

43:38

was going to make when I when they were

43:40

building their their headquarters. I

43:42

remember Twitter building its

43:43

headquarter and they had the most

43:44

beautiful cafeteria. I don't know if

43:46

you've ever been there, but it was

43:47

gorgeous.

43:47

>> I've never been invited to Twitter's

43:48

cafeteria.

43:49

>> This was pre Elon and I was thinking

43:52

>> pre-lon.

43:52

>> Pre-lon. Um I was thinking they don't

43:55

care about all the businesses around

43:57

like you know what I mean? like they

43:58

kept the people captive in this

44:00

beautiful everything is here, don't go

44:03

anywhere. And that they don't give a

44:04

[ __ ] about San Francisco. It's just like

44:07

they just want to be here. But they

44:09

didn't care about the surrounding

44:11

delies. They didn't care about people

44:12

going out in the street and creating a

44:14

street life. They didn't back the the

44:17

you know, they don't have to back the

44:18

opera, but they didn't back any civic

44:20

organizations ever. And I was always

44:22

like, "Huh, what a group of people. They

44:24

don't really care about anything but

44:26

themselves." Like I remember being

44:28

struck by that cafeteria and thinking

44:29

they really could give a [ __ ] And it

44:32

was the same it's the same idea. They

44:34

could give a [ __ ] about our government.

44:35

They could give a [ __ ] about all these

44:37

things except for what's in their

44:39

interests. And so I I could go I'm going

44:41

to I'm moving into I'm speaking of

44:42

psychosis. I'm moving

44:43

>> it comes down to one sort of basic

44:45

algorithm and that is all corporate. You

44:49

could argue the big tech is worse than

44:50

most. But generally speaking, it's safe

44:52

to assume that all corporations care

44:54

about is shareholder value and earnings

44:57

and getting to those earnings within the

44:59

confines of the law. What unfortunately

45:02

is different nowadays, I don't think

45:04

that's changed. I think General Motors

45:05

would still be pouring mercury into the

45:06

river if there wasn't

45:08

>> I would agree

45:09

>> wasn't an EPA. The the failure of the

45:12

glitch in the matrix is that we used to

45:14

have checks and balance in the form of

45:15

leadership.

45:16

>> Mhm. that prevented a tragedy of the

45:18

commons. But because of Citizens United

45:20

now,

45:21

>> the only thing that elected officials

45:23

care about is getting reelected. And the

45:25

only thing you need to get reelected is

45:27

more money than the next person.

45:29

>> And Silicon Valley has connected the

45:31

dots here.

45:31

>> Yeah.

45:32

>> And it said we can compromise inch by

45:34

inch their ability to regulate us and

45:36

prevent a tragedy of the commons by

45:39

throwing money at them.

45:40

>> Yep. And now billionaires, the 900

45:43

billionaires in the United States are

45:44

responsible for 19% of the pack giving.

45:47

>> Was that number? So I think you should

45:48

ask Taler Rico about this. I'm sorry.

45:50

You should let him talk about this

45:52

issue. I mean ultimately it's this is

45:55

not a good situation for all of us. And

45:57

they someone came up to me the other day

45:59

and who had been critical of my book

46:00

being too hard on Silicon Valley

46:02

burnbook and they said, "I have to

46:05

apologize. You weren't hard enough." And

46:07

I was like, "You're absolutely [ __ ]

46:09

right." All right, Scott. Let's go on a

46:11

quick break. When we come back, what

46:12

Barry Diller is saying about CNN.

46:15

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47:28

Scott, we're back with more news. Barry

47:29

Diller is speaking out about wanting to

47:31

buy CNN and what he would do with it. In

47:33

a new interview, Diller says it uh CNN

47:35

hasn't been managed optimally and had

47:37

enormous in and it's has enormous

47:39

potential to influence. He says he told

47:41

Warner Brothers CEO David Zazoff all

47:43

this. Let's listen.

47:44

>> I said to him, I don't think your

47:46

programming I I don't think it's being

47:47

optimally programmed. I don't think it's

47:49

competitive. Now, by the way, the facts

47:52

uh support that. Uh meaning that its

47:56

ratings have declined, its revenue has

47:58

declined.

48:00

Still is quite profitable. But how would

48:02

you alter it?

48:04

>> Oh, in every way.

48:07

Look, feel, and see. Every way.

48:12

And I mean, I hope I get the chance. I

48:13

don't think I will, but I hope I do.

48:16

>> Um, I'm not sure when this was, but I I

48:17

I texted him. Um, he said this not

48:20

happening. He said, "Not that now that

48:22

the Ellison's have it." Um, and they and

48:24

he quite correctly, and I happen to know

48:26

this, they're going to combine CNN and

48:28

CBS. Um, he doesn't think he has a

48:31

chance. I would love to work for Barry

48:33

D. He's much more conservative than I

48:35

am, but um I would certainly love he's

48:38

such a good programmer. He's such an

48:40

interest

48:42

journalism even if he gets mad at it

48:43

sometimes. He's someone I I appreciate

48:46

in that regard. Um and it would I wrote

48:49

him. I said, "Can you please?" And he's

48:51

there's no way. So I can I can knock

48:53

this one out of the water. He can't do

48:54

it unless Please, Ellison, sell it to

48:57

Barry Diller. Please, that would be

48:59

great. So, any thoughts?

49:02

>> I would love to see Barry Dillard

49:03

partnered with Jeff Zucker and a private

49:05

equity firm. And I think there's more a

49:08

greater likelihood than people believe

49:10

that the Ellison's might say this is too

49:12

big a headache.

49:14

>> We might just sell a combined CBS and

49:16

CNN to someone else because I think that

49:19

I'm not sure and maybe I'm being naive

49:21

here. I'm not sure they're as Mavian as

49:23

people think about trying to control the

49:25

world. Um, I don't know, but maybe they

49:28

have some grand vision for how they

49:29

integrated into Tik Tok, but I I can't

49:31

imagine Larry Ellison is as smart as he

49:33

is. Isn't going to say this is going to

49:36

be more a headache than it's worth.

49:38

>> No, they wanted the studios. I I I

49:39

agree. They're not quite as madilian.

49:41

They they they're just opportunistic, I

49:44

would say. I I you know, Ellison was was

49:47

democratic.

49:48

>> You're the third richest man in the

49:49

world by focusing on on economics. And I

49:52

think that

49:53

>> anyways, I think he makes a lot of

49:55

money. Diller is correct. It makes

49:56

>> the time margins. But I did some

49:58

analysis here because I just wanted to

49:59

show you like one talk about some

50:03

numbers of cable news. I spent a decent

50:04

amount of time last night uh on AI

50:08

looking at ratings and viewership and

50:10

essentially what I did was just to give

50:12

you a sense for the ecosystem and also I

50:15

never miss a chance to make pivot look

50:17

good.

50:18

>> It is good.

50:19

>> I looked at gross viewership. That is

50:21

the number or listenership. That's the

50:23

number of people who watch a program and

50:25

then see it on YouTube or on social or

50:28

download the audio and listen to it. And

50:30

actually listens are more valuable than

50:32

views because it's a more intimate

50:33

experience. And that's why

50:35

>> that's why you get higher CPMs on

50:37

podcast right now than you get on cable

50:39

TV. CPM is the cost per thousand viewers

50:42

an advertiser is willing to pay. So

50:44

let's look at gross viewership. the

50:46

number of times someone or the number of

50:48

people that watch the program, see it on

50:50

YouTube or somewhere else or listen to

50:52

the podcast version of it.

50:54

>> Fox News averages during prime time.

50:57

>> Fox

50:58

>> Fox Okay.

50:58

>> Fox News during prime time averages 2.1

51:02

million in gross viewership.

51:03

>> Mhm.

51:04

>> This is staggering. CNN 660,000.

51:08

>> Mhm.

51:09

>> Fox is kicking the [ __ ] out of CNN.

51:13

>> Yes. Pivot's gross viewership is

51:15

375,000.

51:17

>> CNBC is 252,000.

51:21

Now,

51:22

that's a bit of a a misnomer. It's

51:24

important, but what advertisers care

51:27

about, they don't care about kids. They

51:29

don't care about seniors. They care

51:31

about people aged 25 to 54 who are

51:33

buying kids, houses, and cars and in

51:35

their mating years.

51:36

>> This is a single pivot, not two together

51:38

of the week, right?

51:39

>> This is one show.

51:40

>> One show. single show.

51:42

>> We do two a week, but go ahead.

51:43

>> This is one show.

51:44

>> Mhm.

51:44

>> So, in the core demo, that's adults 25

51:47

to 54.

51:48

>> Mhm.

51:49

>> Okay. Well, let me let me let me let me

51:52

start here, which will explain that

51:53

number. Let's look at the median viewer

51:55

age.

51:56

>> Fox News, the median is 69,

52:00

>> CNN at 67, CNBC at 63.

52:03

>> Pivot, the median age is 42.

52:07

>> 42. So which leads you to believe as you

52:10

should that the number the percentage of

52:13

viewers in the core demographic for

52:16

these institutions or for the cable guys

52:18

and CNBC is somewhere between 20 and

52:19

30%. For pivot it's 70%. Meaning the

52:24

number of people listening or watching

52:27

these program listening to or watching

52:29

these programs in the core demo that

52:31

advertisers care about CNBC gets 63,000

52:35

people on average watching programming

52:37

who are in the core demo.

52:39

>> CNN gets 135,000.

52:42

Fox gets 197,000

52:45

and Pivot gets 233,000.

52:48

>> We beat them in the demo.

52:49

>> So we're getting more people in the core

52:51

demo. And then which leads to the

52:53

following. Our average CPM

52:56

>> Mhm.

52:56

>> according to Ray Chow, Ultimate Nice Guy

52:58

and New Father.

52:59

>> Mhm.

52:59

>> From Vox, we get a CPM of $45.

53:05

The word I've heard from CNN is they get

53:08

between$ 13 and $17. I don't know what

53:10

Fox gets.

53:11

>> Mhm.

53:12

>> So, just to give you a sense, Oh, and

53:15

let's talk about median household income

53:17

>> and cost of doing business, but go

53:19

ahead. Yeah. You want to reach wealthy

53:21

people. Wealthy people are now

53:23

responsible for 50% of consumer

53:24

spending. They have more discretionary

53:25

income, right?

53:27

>> Fox News, the average household, the

53:29

median household income is $60,000.

53:32

CNN 65, CNBC 85.

53:37

>> That's not

53:38

>> Pivot

53:39

150 because we get a very techheavy high

53:41

paid audience. So, it's pretty obvious

53:46

why cable news, Fox is actually doing

53:49

pretty well,

53:50

>> but cable news as a whole

53:52

>> is dying.

53:54

>> Yeah,

53:54

>> it's literally dying. So, Barry Diller

53:57

saying he wants a new look and a new

53:59

feel, what I would suggest is unless you

54:01

can pick it up at distressed pricing and

54:04

consolidate it with a bunch of other

54:06

stuff, I think Barry's falling into the

54:08

same trap that a lot of people fall

54:09

into, and that is nostalgia is not a

54:11

strategy. I don't think there's any I

54:14

don't think there's any coming back.

54:15

That's not to say

54:18

>> the these come

54:19

>> they're too expensive. I mean, you

54:21

didn't even figure in costs. Our costs

54:23

are basement compared to all their cost.

54:25

>> Oh, the gross margins.

54:26

>> Yeah.

54:27

>> I mean, then then it gets it goes from

54:29

ugly to worse.

54:30

>> Yeah. What's interesting is there there

54:33

there's it's a it's still a great brand

54:35

and I agree with you about the

54:37

romanticism and he happens to be even

54:40

today at his he's much older is still

54:43

the best programmer around. He's been

54:45

>> No, he's he's a legend in the world of

54:47

media.

54:47

>> But not just that. I don't I've never

54:49

seen him think like oh I

54:51

>> Yeah, but so is John Malone and he

54:52

hasn't been able to figure it out.

54:54

>> I agree. I agree. But I'm just saying I

54:56

I I wouldn't like just say oh he's just

54:58

being romantic. I I've had discussions

54:59

with him. He's got some great ideas and

55:01

I agree it's a real problem. It's a I

55:03

would spin it off and see what Zucker

55:05

and Diller could do cuz I both of them

55:07

very good. They have a lot of ideas and

55:09

bring in people who have great ideas and

55:12

what would you do with it if if they

55:14

said here is this. This is what you have

55:16

Scott. What would you do with it? I know

55:18

you have just an anathema to television.

55:20

I know that. But um I it's an

55:23

interesting I think it's what he knows

55:25

best and it would be interesting. I

55:27

think he would be an interesting owner.

55:29

It's he says it's not happening. Um but

55:32

uh but it's nice that he's bringing it

55:34

up. I think Well, sorry. And by the way,

55:35

speaking of our demo, of our young demo,

55:38

42 means there's a lot of people on the

55:40

very young side. A lovely young man

55:42

named Evan, last night I was going into

55:44

this party for Hank Pollson was like, "I

55:46

love Pivot. Say hi to Scott." And I was

55:48

like, and and was like,

55:50

>> "That is a very young person. I get

55:51

stopped by very young people, very old

55:54

people. um middle most much in the

55:57

middle and very different people and I

55:58

really Evan I really appreciate all the

56:00

nice things you said about the show uh

56:03

because we we like all our different

56:04

fans but you're right the age thing is

56:06

important all kinds of stuff anyway

56:09

we'll see anyway Barry good luck um all

56:12

right we're not going to be buying it

56:13

and I won't go off on my craziness like

56:15

I did with the post um all right Scott

56:17

one more quick break we'll be back for

56:19

predictions

56:21

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57:26

>> Okay, Scott, let's hear a prediction.

57:28

You you sort of mentioned it. What is

57:30

it? What is it? Oh, one thing. I predict

57:32

we're going to have a great time at

57:33

South by Southwest. All right. That's my

57:34

prediction.

57:35

>> That's what you're predicting always.

57:36

All right. So, my prediction is

57:40

essentially um I think the markets this

57:43

year are going to go down. Uh dangerous.

57:48

I think I think we're

57:49

>> I think we're on the precipice of like

57:51

a10 trillion dollar wipeout.

57:54

>> Whoa.

57:54

>> Um

57:55

>> really.

57:56

>> Oh yeah.

57:57

>> Tell all.

57:58

>> Well, not and by the way, I get this

58:00

wrong all the time. This is not

58:01

financial advice, but I don't think it's

58:03

from Iran. It's from what comes after

58:05

Iran.

58:07

Um and this is this is the chain

58:10

reaction here. Uh, I don't think oil is

58:14

going to I think oil is not going to be

58:16

at 150 bucks, but it's going to be it's

58:19

it's going to be

58:21

sustainably higher. It's going to be

58:23

elevated through the rest of the year.

58:25

And inflation in some markets reignites.

58:28

The Fed can't cut rates. They're trapped

58:31

um to inspire the economy because

58:33

they're worried about inflation. I think

58:35

corporate earnings are really impaired

58:37

as consumers stop spending

58:40

because some of them will be paying five

58:41

bucks a gallon for gas and their 401k

58:44

will start to decline and Q2 earning

58:47

season becomes bad and then what CEOs do

58:50

when things are sort of bad is they

58:51

throw in the kitchen sink and they'll

58:53

make it look like a blood bath just to

58:54

get all the bad [ __ ] out.

58:56

>> That's a good idea actually.

58:57

>> But the real contagion

58:59

>> uh here is going to be from emerging

59:01

markets. I think there's a decent chance

59:03

that Pakistan and Egypt default as well

59:07

as Sri Lanka and Bangladesh

59:09

>> dollar denominated debt very energy

59:11

dependent very fragile economies

59:14

>> because they all they all there's this

59:16

domino effect in those markets because

59:17

they can't afford oil imports and their

59:19

dollar denominated debt just becomes

59:21

unpayable

59:23

and then the real downward spiral starts

59:26

European banks holding that emerging

59:28

market debt start announcing write downs

59:32

um foreign banks, Deutsche Bank, BMP,

59:35

Pariba, all hugely exposed. Credit

59:37

spreads blow out and we get sort of a

59:41

not this to the same extent, but we get

59:42

an '08 style which bank is next moment

59:47

except this time it's happening while

59:50

the US is fighting a war we started for

59:52

no reason,

59:53

>> right?

59:54

>> Uh other than Scott, it's an excursion.

59:57

>> Well,

59:57

>> I'm teasing you. It's war. And well,

59:59

that's the mistake here is it should

60:00

have been a special it should have been

60:02

a military combat operation. Instead,

60:04

they've turned it into a war with no

60:06

objectives. But anyways,

60:08

by August, the narrative shifts shifts

60:11

from transitory war shock to holy [ __ ]

60:15

we may have broken the global financial

60:17

system. The S&P is off 20 to 40% from

60:21

its peak. Bitcoin goes to like 30,000.

60:25

Um, and you know, and quite frankly, the

60:27

only thing that probably goes up is

60:29

canned goods and ammunition

60:31

>> and Chevron. Um,

60:34

>> well, that's a scenario.

60:36

>> Happy South by Southwest.

60:38

>> But, but it's going to start, the

60:41

prediction is the following. It's going

60:42

to start, the contagion is going to

60:43

start in emerging markets that can't

60:45

afford

60:47

>> oil and uh, their debt is dollar

60:50

denominated. It's just a toxic cocktail.

60:52

It's a very accurate prediction, I have

60:54

to say.

60:55

>> So, and the problem is we've shot so

60:58

many bullets with our debt and printing

61:01

money that um the ECB and the Federal

61:05

Reserve doesn't have the same firepower

61:07

to try and lift us out of this.

61:10

>> Mhm.

61:10

>> So, in other words, it could be like a

61:12

an08 shock, but the problem is we we

61:15

have less ammunition for a bailout.

61:17

>> Yeah. Yep. With the tariffs, with the

61:19

debt, with everything. I mean, you know,

61:21

one of the things that uh did you hear

61:23

James Carville saying, "I don't have

61:24

enough Trump derangement syndrome. I

61:26

want more. I should, you know, I'm so

61:28

furious at this [ __ ] He was screaming

61:30

this what he has done here with this

61:32

Iran." And it all, as you have noted

61:34

many times, links back to Epstein again,

61:37

right? It links back to this guy.

61:39

>> He's the guy in every room

61:40

>> in every room. I think you're absolutely

61:42

right that this everything is motivated

61:45

by either people want to get before

61:47

while the getting's good or for

61:49

themselves or a an un unhealthy need to

61:54

hold on to power in a demented way like

61:58

I I remember when Elon said that one

61:59

time if Democrats it's an existential

62:02

crisis for the world if Democrats win.

62:04

Actually, as I always say,

62:07

every accusation is a confession. We're

62:09

in an existential crisis because of

62:11

these greedy [ __ ] and because of the

62:14

the need to hold on to power over

62:16

everything and it's going to it has

62:17

reverberations around the world.

62:19

>> There's some really interesting tax

62:20

proposals. Senator Booker proposed

62:22

basically a tax holiday for young people

62:25

which I which I love. Not that expensive

62:29

because young people don't make that

62:31

much money. Mhm.

62:32

>> We need to level up young people who are

62:34

24% less wealthy than they were 40 years

62:36

ago versus old people who are 72%

62:38

wealthier. And then

62:40

>> for the first time I saw a wealth tax

62:43

>> that could potentially

62:46

make sense. But instead of going after

62:47

billionaires

62:48

>> Mhm.

62:49

>> they should be going after anybody or

62:52

everybody that say has a well, you know,

62:54

more than call it $und00 million,

62:57

>> right?

62:58

>> You get no happiness. your kids will get

62:59

no incremental happiness from inheriting

63:01

that much money.

63:01

>> Billionaires were helping you lift your

63:03

wallets. Um,

63:04

>> and it should be it should be annual and

63:06

it should be small enough

63:07

>> such that people don't have to liquidate

63:09

assets

63:10

>> or move to Florida like

63:12

>> Yeah, it has to be federal.

63:13

>> Starbucks is just has to be federal.

63:15

You're absolutely right. That's great.

63:17

Okay. All right. We're going to talk

63:18

about that. That's going to be one of

63:19

our big topics at South by Southwest. We

63:21

Anyway, we want to hear from you. Send

63:23

us your questions about business tech or

63:25

whatever is on your mind. Go to

63:26

nymag.com/pivot

63:28

to submit a question for the show or

63:29

call 85551 pivot elsewhere in the Karen

63:32

Scott universe. I'm going to get serious

63:34

for a second. Monday I published a story

63:35

that I think I'm the most proud of of

63:37

anything I've done in a very long time.

63:39

I sat down with three Epstein survivors

63:41

who've been pushing for more

63:42

transparency with on on with career

63:44

survivor uh Liz Stein who's also a

63:47

survivor of childhood uh sexual abuse

63:50

said her desire to help her younger self

63:52

fuels her advocacy work. Let's listen to

63:54

a clip. It would be irresponsible of me

63:58

to have this position and to not use it

64:02

so that others did not feel alone in

64:05

this. Because if I could go back and

64:07

tell myself anything, it would be to

64:10

tell someone. And if they don't listen,

64:12

tell someone else. And just keep telling

64:14

until people listen to you. And even if

64:17

you feel like they don't, be proud of

64:19

yourself because you at least were able

64:22

to sit in your uncomfortable truth when

64:24

other people weren't. And that's really

64:26

what fuels me doing this advocacy, being

64:28

the person that I wish was there for me

64:31

when I needed them most. This was a

64:33

great show. They actually got to talk a

64:35

lot about it. Often you get these

64:36

shorter interviews. It was really very

64:39

moving. I dare I just listen to it. I

64:42

know everyone goes, "Oh, goodness."

64:43

>> Yeah. You can hear the emotion in her

64:44

voice.

64:45

>> Such dignity. such incredible strength,

64:48

such heroic behavior in in the face of

64:50

adversity. And uh you know, it was a lot

64:54

of I've gotten a lot of feedback that's

64:56

been I really appreciate, but it was all

64:58

these women. They were astonishing. It

64:59

has nothing to do with me, but I let

65:01

them talk and you should listen to what

65:03

they have to say as she said. Anyway,

65:05

that's the show. Uh thanks for listening

65:07

to Pivot. Be sure to like and subscribe

65:09

to our YouTube channel. We'll be back

65:11

next week.

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