So there are five scenarios in which the

war could end because Trump is stupid

enough to take on what Israel wanted to

do, which was destroy Iran, but they've

bitten off far more than they can chew.

So scenario one is Iran destroys the

Gulf power infrastructure. I think

that's highly likely. And if that

happens, then Saudi Arabia, Qatar,

Dubai, they'll become uninhabitable. And

then scenario two, Iran disables

Israel's nukes. I hope that happens, but

there's this one. And it scares the

out of me. Professor Steve, I have so

many questions. What is going on?

>> So, this war is threatening everybody on

the planet. And what Trump is doing at

the moment is a pump and dump scheme.

He's trying to drive up the oil price

and exploiting it for his friends and

for his own wealth in the process. So,

people are focusing upon the price of

this. But the really important point is

this, the straight of Ham. So, oil,

fertilizer, helium all have to pass

through the straight of Ham

>> and Iran have blocked that gap.

>> So, they can say you do or do not pass

depending on your country's attitude

towards our country. And that's quite

terrifying because 20 to 30% of our

fertilizer comes through at this point.

But if this is not available, the globe

has a famine.

>> Do you think he will send ground troops

in?

>> Yes, I do. But I'd hate to be one of

those troops because it's a suicide

mission. They've got underground

military units of weapons and troops,

but we have no idea of the scale.

>> Trump keeps saying that the war has been

won.

>> Yeah.

>> What's going on there in your view?

>> I think he's been fed propaganda to tell

him that he's winning the war by his

immediate advisers because you cannot

tell a person like that that they've

made a mistake. We'll talk about that as

well. But you developed a bit of a

reputation because you're very good at

predicting things. So, which of these

five outcomes do you think is most

probable to happen?

>> Oh god,

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Let's get on with the show.

>> Professor Steven, who who are you? If

you had to sort of distill it down to

three areas of specialism, what would

those be? history of economic thought,

financial instability, so the what

causes volatility in the in the economy

and the dynamics of money and ironically

it makes me a minority in economics

because most economists ignore money

completely.

>> It's a strange thing to you.

>> It's ridiculous but it's true.

>> We'll talk about that as well today. I

really want to focus on what's going on

in the world right now because there's

so many questions. It's it's all quite

confusing

>> extremely

>> and understanding the layers of

motivation that you know Trump has, Iran

have, Israel have is um it's a difficult

jigsaw puzzle to put together.

>> I guess the the question that I keep

asking myself is like what is going on?

>> You can't get away from the fact that

we've basically elected a mafia dawn to

president of the United States. You've

got a guy who

admires the mafia

who's running the country. So what we're

getting in some ways is a shakeddown

rather than anything driven by any sense

of political necessity. Okay. So that's

that's a crazy element to begin with.

And the American deep state as it's

called has been anti-Iran for 40 or 50

years. Israel has wanted to defeat Iran

for that length of time. Trump is stupid

enough but also cunning enough. It's a

combination of the two to take on what

Israel wanted to do, which was destroy

Iran. They're now trying to do it and

they're finding that they've they've

bitten off far more than they can chew.

>> Trump is someone who cares a lot about

people's opinions of him and he must

have known that this would be

politically unpopular to target around

at this moment in time.

>> I don't think so. I had a relationship

with somebody with narcissistic

personality disorder. So that's

something over and above what I learned

academically that I when I think about

his behavior and somebody like that,

they want to be the center of attention

at all times. They can't stand it when

somebody else is being spoken about.

It's ridiculous, but it's it's a

pathology. So he's interested in

people's opinions so long as they're

positive and they're about him.

>> So you are you saying that he attacked

Iran and started this war in part

because he wanted attention?

>> That's always something with somebody

who's got that disorder. Yeah.

>> I mean, what do you think about his

rational? He's saying that he attacked

Iran because they had nuclear weapons

and they were there was an imminent

threat.

>> We still don't know whether Iran has

nuclear weapons. Okay. We know that

Israel has. If you're going to attack a

country with you, you should attack

Israel, not Iran.

>> But you can't attack attack Israel, can

you? Cuz

>> I cannot make sense of what politicians

all over the planet are doing these

days. There's a huge gap between what

politicians are saying about global

politics and what people in the street

are saying about it. So people on the

street have seen the Gaza genocide.

They've seen all the conflicts Israel

has started there. And I think the

general sentiment in most countries in

the world today is anti-Israel because

of the way it's treating the

Palestinians. And that's what people are

thinking about. the top echelons like in

this country as you know if I if I say

free Palestine I say that outside on the

street I can be arrested it's crazy what

there's a huge divorce between what

people are thinking and what the

politicians are saying and I can't give

any explanation for that divorce apart

from believing that Israel has something

over our political leaders

>> what do you mean you think they have

something over our political leaders

>> I think there

We know about the whole Epstein. The the

way that the Iranians refer to what's

happening is they say they're fighting

the Epstein class and there's belief

that there's something where Epstein

has been working for with the Israeli

intelligence service and has blackmailed

worthy material on a huge range of

politicians. And that's the only way

that I can explain the the sort of

things that politicians are supporting

when their populace is angry about those

same policies. So you get demonstrations

here, you know, free Palestine

demonstrations, 80-year-old female

vicers being arrested for saying this

sort of stuff. You go back 40 years ago,

there was a a a belief in the public and

a belief amongst politicians that Israel

had a right to exist and it was all

pro-Israel. And now after 40 years, the

type of abuses that have happened in

Palestine have hit individual ordinary

people's attitudes to Israel. So

ordinary people are saying Israel's the

aggressor. Israel's making the mistakes.

But the politicians are all saying it's

a it's it's anti- um Seemitic to

criticize Israel.

>> If you had to give a a one-s sentence

answer as to why this war started

because we sort of hypothesized a few

things there. What would that one

sentence answer be?

>> Again, this is trying to make sense of

the senseless. I just think Israel

wanted to destroy Iran. They thought

they could do it and they thought they

had an American president who would help

them do it and they I drastically

underestimated how prepared Iran was for

that conflict.

>> Why would Israel want to destroy Iran?

What's the context there?

>> This goes back to religious elements.

The Zionist state had the right to that

whole region and there's an expansionist

element to Israel's behavior for the

last 40 years. And the major rival they

saw themselves as having in that sense

was Iran. They can invade Jordan. They

could attack Lebanon. Uh they could do

all these things. Of course they the 67

war. Uh they wiped out the is Arab

invading Arabian armies in six days.

They have this past history of being

militarily dominant in the area and they

they knew that Iran was too big for them

to take on on their own. They thought

they could get the Americans in there

and I think they drastically

underestimated how prepared Iran was for

this situation.

>> When you say Iran were prepared for this

situation and it somewhat surprised

Israel and the US. What is that

preparedness you're speaking about?

Well, it's for a start the the fact that

Iran witnessed that there were um

decapitation attacks on other countries

in the region going way way back not

just the last 10 years but the last 40

or 50 years decapitation

>> you take off the leader you kill the

leaders and then with the leaders killed

the armies in disarray and you can come

in and invade and take over. So getting

rid of Saddam Hussein that sort of thing

you know wipe out Saddam Hussein's power

base and then the whole system

collapses. That was the Iraq story. But

the Iranians observed that and they have

broken their military into 31 divisions.

There are 31 provinces like 31 states in

that sense inside Iran. Their military

has broken into those 31 units. They've

got their own fail safe system running

in the background. They've got their own

resources, their own missiles,

production systems, all that sort of

stuff. So you've got to take out the

whole 31 and then they'd have that sub

area. So the only way you can beat the

country is by literally bombing it to

back to the stone age

>> which is appears to be what they've been

trying to do

>> trying to do. But the thing is it's a

huge country. I mean look at you know

the scale of around the map's always

distort how large. So that is larger.

That's more than half the size of

Western Europe. It's got a population of

90 million about 1/3 or one quarter the

population of Europe far more than Iraq.

>> I mean it looks like it's double the

size of the UK or more

>> or more than double. I mean you know one

thing about the MA projection.

>> No. What's that?

>> Okay. It's that it's it makes the the

northern hemisphere is twice as large as

the southern and arounds in the northern

hemisphere but not as far north as

England. So the distortion gets

amplified the further north you go. So

it's bigger than France and Germany and

Italy and Spain

>> and possibly Poland in terms of area.

And then if you even see just looking on

the map itself you can see the

corrugations there versus what you can

see corrugation

>> the what representing mountains. Okay.

>> Okay. There's more mountains inside

there. It's a hor it's a horrendous

terrain to fight a war on. I think what

Trump is doing at the moment is a pump

and dump scheme. He's trying to drive up

the oil price, tell friends beforehand

that he's about to make his announcement

which will cause the price to fall and

he's just oscillating this way up and

down and exploiting it for his friends

and for his own wealth in the process.

>> Do you actually think that's the case?

Because this must be make sense of this

stuff. this must be hurting his friends

economically because the this, you know,

the stock market's going to take a dip

if he's not careful and his friends are

all shareholders in different big

companies. So, you know, also if you

know like the one of Kane's great lines

was that there's no point in buying a

stock which you think is going to

increase in value over time if you think

it's going to slump in the immediate

future. So, he's making an announcement

which causes oil markets to panic. So,

the price goes up. We've given him

control of the most powerful country on

the planet. He knows if you make an

announcement, it moves markets. He has

no compunction whatsoever in exploiting

that to cause rises and falls in prices

and try to exploit them himself and with

his friends.

>> I did. I mean, I did see that. I've got

the data here on on the floor showing

those graphs. I I generally looked at

that and thought, yeah, you know, maybe,

but it's also conceivable that Trump is

quite a predictable character and he

tweets at the same time every day. And

it's also I think me and you both know

that before the markets open on a Monday

morning, he's going to want to say

something really positive.

>> He has a track record of doing that. So

is it conceivable that they knew he was

flying because it was tracked that he

was going to be on this plane journey.

There's going to be a press gaggle. We

know he's going to give an interview. I

actually think that was quite

predictable. If I was a betting man, I

would have gone Sunday night or Monday

morning. I would have put a bet on oil

prices coming down, the stock market

going up.

>> Yeah. And like for example that one of

the things he said most recently he

talked about getting a present from Iran

>> and then he finally let slip what the

present was and was letting eight ships

through the straight of Hmas.

>> Oh

those eight ships were not American.

They were other allies. I think what

he's thinking is these um that's going

to mean the oil market gets calmed down.

That means the price is going to fall.

Uh so I can then do another pump and

dump.

>> Let's explain the straight of hormones.

>> Oh god. Yeah. is if we had to explain it

for 16 year olds because there's been

lots of coverage on it and I think some

people have kind of skipped past the

importance of the region. What is the

straight of hormones and why does it

matter?

>> Well, it's the choke point in the

Persian Gulf to get through. You've got

like 21 km. Okay, that's an incredibly

narrow gap for ships to pass through and

that means that all the countries that

pump not just oil but fertilizer, uh,

helium, all these critical elements for

the production system all have to pass

through this point. And obviously that's

well within reach of any weapons from

Iran. So they can say you do or do not

pass depending on whether we approve or

don't approve of your political your

country's attitude towards our country.

>> You said fertilizer.

>> Yeah.

>> Oil and helium.

>> Yeah. Helium.

>> Where are they coming from?

>> They're mainly coming from I think for

mainly from the Saudi Arabian side.

Saudi Arabia and like Iran will have the

same things but Iran would keep it keep

those for themselves but Saudi Arabia is

the main source of gases and oils which

are refined and as byproducts we get

sulfur dioxide and we get helium. This

is the helium.

>> Yeah.

>> Okay. That's you know a couple of kilos

of helium. But helium it's an element

which there's no substitute.

>> So helium is inert.

>> What does that mean? It means it doesn't

interact with other chemicals. You want

to give it a try?

>> I've never done it.

>> I don't think there's any in here.

>> Oh, what a pity. Okay. What I would have

done to give it a try. You got any real

helium?

>> Oh, bloody hell. Helium balloon.

>> Okay.

>> Does it change your voice?

>> I don't know. Has my voice changed?

>> It did. I'll give my voice a try. Okay.

>> Um Okay. I've never done this before,

but I've heard it at parties.

>> Okay. And now I think my voice has

changed somewhat from

the fact you can do it. Oh my god.

That is a riot. Okay.

>> Where is helium coming from?

>> It's coming from a gas field. So about

30% of the world's helium comes from a

gas field which spans both Saudi Arabia

and Iran. If you don't trap helium

physically somehow it goes to outer

space. That's the ultimate destination

of the stuff. So it's trapped in the

same things that trap oil. And then when

you drill for oil, you also get helium

coming out. And then helium is

absolutely critical for the

semiconductor industry. It didn't matter

100 years ago.

>> And semiconductors are important for

what?

>> Everything. I mean you you know your you

take the semiconductors out of that,

you've got a brick. Okay. The the the

processors, the CPUs, the memory chips,

they're all made. Helium is an essential

element to make them

>> for our iPhones, our tablets,

>> everything. Everything electronic. If

you need semiconductors, you need

helium. So if you cut off 30% of the

world's helium supply, you cut off the

capacity to produce 30% of the world's

semiconductors.

>> And Iran have blocked that gap.

>> And that means that we've suddenly lost

30% of the world's helium.

>> I've got a quote from March 2026 from

leading helium expert Phil Cornblutch.

>> He said, "We're looking at a minimum 2

to 3 months shutdown of helium

production with up to 6 months before

supply gets back to normal." and he

explained you can't stockpile helium

because it leaks through containers.

>> Y

>> so once supply is cut off semiconductor

production will stop entirely. South

Korea gets 65% of its helium from Qatar

in that region and makes 2/3 of the

world's memory chips. Their government

has launched an emergency investigation

into the shortage. Nobody's talking

about this.

>> I know. And this this is one reason it's

quite terrifying about the scale of what

we're going through cuz people just

thinking it's going to be oil's going to

be more expensive. That's the sort of

mindset we have. But in fact, critical

elements of the production system are

being terminated by this conflict. You

can't produce chips anymore. And you

can't Well, you got hang on. You can't

produce these chips either because the

fertilizer is disappearing.

>> So, you're holding a potato in your

hand.

>> Yeah.

>> How are potato chips going to be

impacted by the water?

>> Because the fertilizer. If we don't have

the fertilizer, we can't grow the

potatoes. And it's not just potatoes.

It's a whole range of crops. We eat

food, okay? We eat this green stuff. It

actually starts as brown stuff because

the fertilizer is an essential part of

growing all the food we eat. And the

fertilizer is produced by a process

called the habber bosch process which

takes petroleum and nitrogen and fixes

them in such a way that you can put this

on the on the field and your plants will

grow courtesy of the fertilizer. If we

didn't have fertilizer at all, guess how

many billion people the planet could

actually support?

>> I don't know.

>> Between one and two. And fertilizer

comes from this region.

>> Again, 20 to 30% of our fertilizer comes

from that region.

>> Through the straight of

>> through the straight of Hamos.

>> Where is it coming from?

>> It's coming again from the the same gas

field that's producing the helium

produces a side effect of fertilizer.

And you need you need I'm not a chemist,

okay? So I can get these things wrong,

but you need sulfur. You need sulfuric

acid as well as part of these production

processes. 20% of the world's

fertilizer, helium, sulfuric acid, all

pass through that straight. And if you

take them away, then you can't make

microchips, which is what Korea is

suffering from. You can't make

fertilizer, which which everybody will

suffer from. If we lost 20% of the

world's fertilizer, we'd lose roughly

20% of the world's food. And it cause a

global famine. We've never had this

experience before. We've had localized

famines. You know, countries like India

have had famines in parts of Africa and

so on. But if this is not available, the

globe has a famine.

>> And what's the last uh tanker you've got

down there? There's one more on the

floor.

>> Oh my god. Okay.

Hey, that's pretty good. It was

accidental, but that's that's petroleum.

Okay. A petroleum tank. Obviously empty.

20 L.

>> So that's oil.

>> That's oil.

>> Oil. Okay. And so if that that's what

we're losing right now and people are

focusing upon the price of this but the

really important point and I can bring

up one of my own charts here is the role

of energy in production because if we

don't have energy we can't produce goods

and services and the link is incredibly

tight. This is looking at change in

energy and change in gross world product

over the last 40 years. I'll throw this

graph on the screen for people that are

watching.

>> Okay. So, what what you've got here is

the annual percentage change in gross

world product and the annual percentage

change in gross energy consumption. And

they're virtually lock step and they're

the same magnitude.

>> So, when energy goes up, GDP goes up.

>> And when energy goes down, GDP goes

down. Now, we're losing 20% of the

world's liquefied natural gas, a

substantial proportion of its oil as

well. We could see a 5 or 10% fall in

energy. we will certainly see a 5 or 10%

fall in global world gross world

product.

>> So explain that to me. So where is the

oil in this region?

>> It's everywhere.

>> Okay.

>> I mean this this is one of the accidents

of history that the oil is a large part

is concentrated here and a large part

over here and a bit in Russia.

>> So over here for people that can't see

you're pointing at Iran, Saudi Arabia,

>> Saudi Arabia,

>> Iraq and then there's a lot in the

United States and there's a lot

>> you've got some in Russia as well. There

was a small amount like the North Sea

had a substantial amount of oil as well

at one stage.

>> And the type of oil in this region I

hear is quite important.

>> It's very I mean oil there's no such

thing as a homogeneous product.

>> What does homogeneous mean?

>> Me everything is the same everywhere.

You can if you don't get it here you can

substitute for something over here.

That's a myth that economists actually

unfortunately believe. They basically

could persuade people to think that

everything is homogeneous. In fact oil

from Venezuela is almost like tar. oil

from here is flows like water

comparatively. You need different

processing systems to to extract that

oil than you need over here. Uh if we

lose this, we can't replace it with

something from over here. So once that

goes then the production system of the

planet is damaged. Uh this has been the

shocking thing for me as a citizen has

been the fact that a war with one

country could decapitate what 20 to 30%

>> of global production

>> global production of oil.

>> Yeah. And food.

>> That's a vulnerability if I've ever

heard one.

>> I know. And this is like one reason I'm

a critic of mainstream economics is they

trivialize all this stuff. They don't

teach their students how critical this

is. So most people are like you, even

people who've done a PhD in economics,

even worse in that sense than other

people, they don't understand how

critical and how fragile our production

systems are. So people can talk about a

war in Iraq and think, "Oh, that's a war

in Iran and that's going to cut off our

oil supply." No, it's going to cut off

your food supply.

>> And for the average person listening

now, what will they start to experience

if this war doesn't immediately end? 2

or 3 months India is going to run out of

fertilizer and so there'll be a famine

in India. Food production on the planet

could fall 10 25%. And therefore the

there simply won't be enough food for

everyone on the planet and then it's a

question of who's going to starve. Now

you'd think the wealthy countries are

going to be safe there. Look for

Australia, my old home country has about

30 days oil supply. When it runs out it

can't get food from the farm to the city

anymore. So Australia is incredibly

vulnerable. We're all far more

vulnerable than we realize and this war

is threatening everybody on the planet.

>> I got in an Uber yesterday and I was

with a a wonderful guy who was actually

weirdly I sat to the Uber at 2 a.m. and

I looked up on the screen and he was

listening to the D of Sierra and then he

clocked he clocked me in the back of the

car. We had a great chat and he was

saying to me, listen this isn't actually

my main job. It's my third job. I do

this because of the cost of living and

it really stayed with me.

>> He's doing three jobs which I love.

Yeah. three jobs and he picked me up at

2:00 a.m. He's got a family

>> and he's working his butt off to keep

the family alive.

>> Yes. And you know, I'm going to say

something which I probably um I don't

say a lot which which came to mind which

is um in the position I'm in now. I

think it it it was a real reminder of my

own personal privilege that I think is

really important for someone like me

that doesn't has an interview show

because you've got to be like

intellectually honest with yourself or

just like honest with yourself generally

that like as a as someone in my position

who has been fortunate enough to be able

to make significant money. I can

understand from having that conversation

how

detached

>> you are

>> I am

>> from the world around you.

>> Yes.

You're you're a very unique soul because

you I know like read a bit of your

history of course and you've had that

terrible period where you were you know

unemployed and what the hell do I do

>> shoplifting food and stuff and

>> you were ambitious but you okay if you

don't experience poverty you don't know

what it's like

>> yeah but even if you have

>> you can forget it

>> you can forget it

>> but you haven't yet

>> well this is why it's so important for

me to have those conversations because

him saying I'm working three jobs and

this is and picking me up at 2 a.m. in

his Uber and him telling me he's doing

that because of cost of living because

he needs to pay the bills immediately

made me think of ahead of this

conversation today like oh my god if the

prices go up 20% for people

>> he's out he's he can't work 24 hours a

day

>> can't work another he can't work more

hours in the day and it was just one of

those moments where you go hell

Steve like man you need to stay close to

the plight of uh of people that are

>> on the bread line and so many people are

these days in advanced countries not

just third world countries but certainly

like in America and the UK there are

huge numbers of people who are basically

living from hand to mouth at the current

system. So if we have a breakdown they

can't afford it and in that situation

you can no longer use money as your way

of deciding whether you can eat food or

not.

>> I wonder if politicians know this cuz

part of the reason I say this is because

you know Trump is a very wealthy man

multi-billionaire reportedly

>> and if the prices go up 20% at the pump

>> he makes profit. I mean he actually when

he said he said he said in favor of the

rising oil price we'll make a lot of

money out of it. His immediate

association rising price of something

that I'm indirectly selling that's good.

He doesn't say what about people buying

it. The people who buy it can no longer

afford it.

>> You've got um some food there on the

table which shows how these conflicts

and the pressure they put on some of

these scarce resources can impact our

ability to go and buy food. I think

you've got two bowls of potatoes.

>> Well, let's actually make it fairer

right now. Let's get the actual

distribution correct initially. So, you

are talking about someone who in your

situation, you've got that

local Uber's got this, and now you're

taking away the oil price. That's going

to make Trump better off, but he's down

to the stage where, you know, he's not

too far from that happening. And that's

what we've pushed ourselves into with

this war.

Do do wars typically make inequality

worse?

>> Very good question. I think wars are

created when inequality is bad. If you

go back to the Great Depression and see

what caused World War II, it was largely

the collapse of the German economy. Uh

when they repaid their debt, their

private debt to America or government

private government debt to America that

led to the rise of Hitler. Everybody

thinks Hitler rose because of the VHimar

inflation. That's what people normally

think. In fact, the when when Hitler

came to power in Germany, the rate of

inflation was minus 10%. It was

deflation. Prices were falling.

Unemployment rose from very low to 25%

of the population. In that situation,

people supported Hitler. He revived the

economy. I'm happy to talk about how he

did that later. But inequality leads to

people being willing to elect demagogues

to say we can save you. And then you get

war coming out of it. What happened

after the World War II is

politicians realized that people had

been through the Great Depression, which

was horrific, and they'd been through

World War II, which was horrific. And in

that period, people in America were

talking about either a fascist world or

a communist world. So the Americans

realized they had to improve the living

standards of the average American

substantially to get away from that. And

if you look at, you know, in 1950s

and60s, that's what is called the golden

age of capitalism because at that stage,

you could be a single male supporting a

wife and four kids and have a

comfortable lifestyle at the time.

That was where we started from. So the

the war itself led to a focus upon

equality, a focus upon fairness and

getting as much as you can to the

poorest in society. And then we've

forgotten that over the last 80 years.

And we've now got back to massive

inequality once more. So I think

inequality causes wars. Wars in the

aftermath make people focus on equality

not to allow that horror to happen once

more. And then we forget and do the

whole damn thing again.

>> One of the um surprising things I

learned the other day was that the

country that is estimated to have the

biggest reserve of oil

is Venezuela.

>> Yep. The third country on this list that

is estimated to have the biggest reserve

of oil is Iran.

>> Yeah. Yeah.

>> Now, it doesn't take a genius. Funny

enough,

>> of two countries have added. Yeah. The

second country being America.

>> Well, it says Saudi Arabia.

>> Saudi Arabia. Well, that's already an

American vessel. Yeah.

>> Yeah. That's already basically they're

basically partners with America already.

>> And funnily enough, the fourth one is

Canada. And if you if you're listening a

lot to Trump's rhetoric, he said he was

going to take Canada and make it the

51st state or something.

it doesn't feel

that the countries that the US are

invading their leaders are the country

that have the biggest supplies. And

Trump has already said, you know,

immediately he said after taking out

Maduro in Venezuela,

>> pulling him out of his bed with his wife

and flying him back to the US,

>> he already said that the oil's on the

way back to America.

>> Yeah. One might assume that much of the

motivation here with Iran is when they

were in negotiations with them, maybe

they weren't playing boy ball with the

oil. Maybe they were threatening

something with the oil and maybe it's

such an economic waste.

>> Well, maybe most of Trump's friends, if

he has them, are oil executives and they

can see the benefit for them in

controlling global oil and the one part

they can't control is Iran.

>> But I mean, it would it's backfired

pretty horrifically. I think one of the

great sayings in humanity is it's looked

like a good idea at the time, then you

do it and you realize you underestimated

your opponent. You have you don't

realize how difficult it is. Like you

mentioned, you know, talking about how

being wealthy can make you dissociate

from the problems that ordinary people

have. It can also make you dissociate

from reality in general. You don't

realize how difficult it is to something

do something you want to have done. So

all these oil executives and people who

Trump socializes with could have

thought, take out Iran, America

dominates the global oil thing. We're

all going to be rich. Okay? But they

don't realize that Iran's been aware of

this possibility for 40 years. And

they're prepared. They're far better

prepared than the Americans and the

Israelis thought.

>> So you've got five scenarios laid out on

these cards in front of you here that

you think could happen next. I'm going

to ask you to explain to me what the

five scenarios are and then tell me

which one you think is most likely to

occur.

>> So, scenario one, which is the one that

I think Trump is I think Israel wants

this one, Iran has destroyed. Okay, if

that happens, we're all gone because to

destroy Iran, you're going to have to

use nuclear weapons. Okay, you can't

destroy it without obliterating it as

nuclear weapons do. And that's the

scariest. I don't think it's going to

happen. My main hope here is that Iran

realizes that possibility and they've

got a way to neutralize

not America's nuclear weapons, but

Israel's.

>> You think it's a possibility?

>> It's a possibility and it's what scares

the out of me because if this

happens, then we're all dead. Obviously,

a nuclear bomb doesn't just blow up an

individual target. It everything within

reach gets exploded into the atmosphere.

That's what led people to realize that

you couldn't have a nuclear war back in

the days when we had mutually assured

destruction as the as the policy. If you

attack a country, then you will also

die.

>> But can't they use narrow nuclear

weapons? Is that not a thing?

>> Well, um

>> smaller nuclear weapons.

>> Well, again, if the country is smaller,

you're talking about destroying Europe.

The weapons you'd need to make sure you

got every last potential element of Iran

neutralized. You're talking about

bombing something which is, you know,

virtually the size of Western Europe.

The amount of weapons you got to drop to

do that

and you've got to if you if you don't

get it right,

then they're going to come at you with

what they've got left.

>> The world has dropped nuclear weapons

before and people survive. Other

neighboring countries survived

>> only twice and only small weapons. The

weapons we're talking about in Hiroshima

and Nagasaki, they're about equivalent

to 20,000 tons of TNT. We're now talking

weapons to 20 million tons of TNT, the

biggest nuclear weapons. And if you

wanted to hit a country the size of Iran

and know you've neutralized it, so you

destroy the whole thing, you're talking

hundreds of those weapons.

>> If you had to give a percentage

probability of that outcome occurring,

would it be less than 1%?

If we didn't have a madman in

Washington, yes, be less than 1%. Um, if

we didn't have madman in Israel, less

than 1%, I think probably 5%.

>> 5% probability that

>> that's a possibility. I mean, again, you

know, this is trying to make sense of

the senseless.

>> Okay.

>> But I'd put it about less than 10% but

still scary as a possibility.

>> If we end up there, we're all gone.

I mean, you know, I know very little

about all these things, so that's the

disclaimer. Um, I'd say that I don't

think Israel would intentionally wipe

out the rest of the world or cause a

nuclear winter because that would

obviously impact them as well. But I I I

am quite scared of president's setting.

And what I mean by that is if we

establish it being okay to drop nuclear

weapons on people you don't like, the

sort of domino effect of that for people

in Ukraine and other parts of the world

where there's conflict might then lead

to,

>> you know, mutually assured destruction.

>> Yeah. It's the it's the last possibility

you want to have happen. The fact that

it's even possible to contemplate it is

a terrifying prospect.

>> Let us hope.

>> Yeah. So scenario two

is Iran destroys the Gulf power

infrastructure. I think that's highly

likely.

>> Iran destroys Gulf power infrastructure.

What does that mean?

>> What it means is that Iran all the Gulf

states have got their own power systems

mainly based on burning oil for obvious

reasons. Uh if you take out their power

structure systems then those countries

become uninhabitable.

>> Is that what's happening already? Cuz I

know Iran have attacked a few sort of

power facilities in the region. There

have been a couple of well there was one

attack on a Saudi Arabian power systems

and that took out two of the 14 units

that are critical for creating liqufied

natural gas and apparently it'll take 5

years to rebuild them and there are only

five companies on the planet that can

actually do that rebuilding. One quarter

of the world's liquid natural gas comes

through the straight of Hamos. One tenth

of that has been destroyed. It's like 2

and a half% of the world's energy supply

is gone for the next 5 years until those

are rebuilt. If Iran destroys the Gulf

power infrastructure, then Saudi Arabia,

Qatar, uh Dubai, they all become

uninhabitable.

>> And we're seeing that happen in parts. I

mean, it sounds like this these attacks

have slowed down a little bit, but it

was interesting that Iran's strategy was

to attack their neighboring sort of

partners and specifically targeting a

lot of their energy infrastructure. Is

that in part to apply pressure?

>> Yeah. If I attack Dubai, the leaders of

Dubai are going to call Trump and say,

"Listen, cut this out."

>> Oh, yeah. I mean, the pressure coming

back from the Arabian states on America,

I imagine, is quite immense right now,

saying, "Don't do it." It's quite

possible Israel could do it, like attack

Iran and then Iran does a retribution

attack. Trump, if you would have seen

his tweet this morning, I think he's put

it off to April the 6th before he says

he starts attacking power

infrastructure. if he attacks power

infrastructure in Iran. Iran has said we

will attack power infrastructure in the

Gulf States. So we've got till you know

what 8 days. I think he's bluffing. I

hope he's bluffing. But if he does do

the attack then Iran will respond by

destroying either an equivalent

component of the Gulf States or the

whole infrastructure.

>> I don't think people quite realize how

costly it is for regions like Dubai when

Iran attack them. I was looking at some

of the data.

>> Yeah.

>> And according to current estimates and

historical risk assessments by Dubai

officials,

>> they lose a million per minute, which is

60 million per hour or 1.4 billion a day

when there's an unplanned emergency

shutdown just of their airport.

>> Their airports, let alone their power

systems. Yeah.

>> As we probably saw on the news, Iran had

flown it seemed like a couple of drones

into Dubai's airport, which meant that

it had to shut down. Yeah,

>> they're losing a billion a day because

that airport is closed. I think it's the

biggest airport in the world.

>> It is economic pressure

which will then trickle down to Trump

and sort of force his hand. So, they've

got a clear incentive to cause chaos.

>> Yeah.

>> And that partly what Iran is saying.

It's it's like a game of bluff. You

don't want to do this bluff. If that

bluff happens then the Saudi Arabian

peninsula becomes uninhabitable

and therefore all the I mean that if if

people have are forced out of there and

most of the residents in those countries

are not Saudis. They're third world

workers from India and Pakistan and the

Philippines and so on. They're being

paid lousy wages to to work on all these

systems. If they leave because the power

is not there to support them anymore.

they try to leave then we lose the

entire energy contribution that that

region makes to the global economy

>> and and the figure screwed

>> and that figure I cited includes not

just lost airport revenue but then the

immediate impact on airlines cargo

logistics and the missed opportunity

cost of thousands of highv value

business travelers attending the region

that Dubai's GDP is roughly 30%

dependent on the aviation and tourism

sectors so when the airport closes it

impacts tourism hospitality real estate

investing global supply chains and

everything so it's Um, it's quite

remarkable specifically with Dubai

>> because Dubai I think Dubai is a lovely

place. I've been multiple times. I I I I

love going there.

>> But it felt really safe and so a lot of

people

>> It's not safe. Yeah.

>> It's not safe.

>> Yeah.

>> Yeah. A lot of people had chosen to

uproot their lives and move there and

you'd almost kind of forgotten you were

in the Middle East to some degree.

>> Yeah. Yeah.

>> But I think this is going to be a pretty

traumatic reminder for a lot of people

there

>> how fragile

>> how fragile

>> this area is and like that's the lesson

we're learning. It's the fragility of

the society we take for granted.

>> So that was scenario number two.

>> Okay. Scenario three. That's the one

that really scares me because that is

the Samson doctrine. You know the story

of Samson. Yeah. Okay. Samson is a

enormously strong individual who's

strong because of his hair. And then he

gets conned. This is an ancient story

from the Bible. And the woman who's

conned him shaves his hair. So he's

weakened. And then they put him in a

temple where he's standing between two

pillars and his hair is gone. He's bald.

He can't do a thing. They forget the

fact that his hair is starting to grow.

His hair gets to the stage where he's

now got his strength back. He pushes

those pillars and the whole thing

collapses and everybody dies. That's the

Samson doctrine. And that involves

Israel's nuclear weapons. If they

realize that they are going to lose this

war and it becomes existential for them

then one of the things they have claimed

that they do is unleash destruction on

the rest of the world like Samson

pushing the towers and the whole thing

comes collapsing down.

>> This is I mean going back to the

situation with Iran and Israel. One of

the things I was thinking a lot about

from some commentary that I'd seen is

Israel really have a motive to get rid

of Iran because Iran have repeatedly

threatened Israel. It's also because I

mean Israel is trying to get rid of the

Palestinians and in that sense Iran has

been probably the major bulkwood

supporting the Palestinians say let the

Palestinians survive. Let the

Palestinian people continue existing.

And the Israelis have been pushing and

pushing and pushing the Palestinians

out. You know, it's a hornets's nest.

We've provoked a hornets's nest. Iran is

responding right now, I think, in a very

judicious way. But if the Israelis

realize they're facing an existential

defeat, that scenario, it would again

mean uh civilization potentially gets

destroyed. And just looking at some of

the things that Iran have said about

Israel, historically, the Supreme Leader

of Iran stated in 2015 that Israel would

not see the next 25 years. Other

officials said things like, "The end is

near." Um,

>> and in March 2026, Iran's tone shifted

from ideological to purely retaliatory

with the speaker of the Iranian

Parliament, Muhammad, stating that Iran

has officially declared that it

considers all Israel energy, water, and

IT infrastructure legitimate targets for

irreversible destruction with zero

restraint.

If we think about this from a psychology

perspective, you've got two neighbors.

They're both either implying implicitly

or explicitly that they want to wipe the

other one out.

>> Yeah.

>> Trump is sort of this third party in in

the arrangement who's not in the region,

so he might be a little bit safer.

>> Those two parties that are against each

other, one of them has nuclear weapons

and the other appears to be trying to

make one. the neighbor that is Israel

presumably cannot let that happen

because if it gets to a point where they

both have nuclear weapons and they both

want to wipe each other out.

>> No, I I actually think that the old days

of mutually assured destruction were a

more stable time than what we're in now

because if you realize that if you

attack you also die, you don't attack.

>> But what if you think of death as being

a better thing than life?

You you have to have a society

continuing after you die. If you're

going to be a martyr, there has to be

people who are going to mourn your

death. If you believe being a martyr

means everybody else so so dies and you

don't do it.

>> So, do you think if Iran had nuclear

weapons, it would be a safer world?

>> I think it'd be safer because it would

tell the Israelis, stop attacking your

neighbors.

>> I sat with um a few nuclear experts and

one of the things that was shocking that

I learned is

>> if the United States wanted to launch a

nuclear weapon today,

>> Yeah. It is one person's decision.

>> I heard that. And that's what Trump can

actually just make that decision.

>> He can make the decision on his own. He

doesn't need to consult Congress or

anybody else. He has someone who walks

around with a briefcase that has the

nuclear codes in at any moment. They

call it Yeah. And when I think about the

same in this region, actually, you don't

need a whole state to decide that they

don't like their neighbor. All you need

is one supreme leader

>> or Netanyahu to say, "Do you know what?

I'm near the end of my life and these

people have really pissed me off." Yeah,

that's right. And that's I mean I

thought there was at least some control.

I saw I saw that segment with Annie

Jacobson. Yeah.

>> I thought there was at least some

control. He had to consult someone.

>> But if and or they had to have

circumstances were justified not

consulting someone.

>> If he's got that right, then we it comes

down to what's the behavior of the

person who carries the nuclear football.

Does he let Trump get hold of it? And

like there there was another incident

way way back I think in this 70s or 80s

that the Russian early warning system

reported that there was a nuclear attack

on the way to Russia and there was one

submarine commander or one element of a

submarine command system and they had to

have three people in the submarine who

agreed to to launch an attack and this

particular person refused.

If he'd agreed with the other

nuclear war at it,

even the Russian submarine had three

people who had to make that decision.

So, we didn't have a nuclear war. Now,

we've got one maniac in this White House

who could do it. I'll play Annie

Jacobson's clip now where she talks

about the idea of sole authority which I

think is an important thing for people

to understand because when we think

about who we're electing to lead our

nuclear capable countries

>> you have to think about who you want to

give sole authority to

>> the United States president has sole

presidential authority to launch a

nuclear war

>> what does that mean

>> it's exactly like it sounds what's so

interesting is a lot of this stuff this

nomenclature that gets thrown at

If you just break it down, it's sole

solo presidential. He's the pus

authority. He doesn't have to ask anyone

for permission. Not the SEC staff, not

the chairman of the joint chiefs of

staff, not the Congress. I love the

worried look on your face in this moment

because it is once you know that

you say well first you might Google is

it really true and you will get for

example on Reddit like that's not really

true you'll get like hundreds of

thousands of people you know coming in

with their opinions about how that's not

really true well it is really true it's

absolutely true and in fact during the

former President Trump administration

Congress became so sort of I want to say

motivated or alarmed by this issue

meaning they were being asked questions

by the powers that be. Is this actually

true that they released a report stating

specifically and I quote in the book yes

it is true as commanderin-chief

the president has this sole authority.

He doesn't need to ask anyone.

>> So what is scenario four in your

envelopes there? Iran disables Israel's

nukes. Nobody can know. But I do believe

that Iran has not developed nuclear

weapons.

>> So you're hoping Iran disables Israel's

nuclear weapons?

>> I am. I hope that happens because that

takes out the nuclear option. Okay. We

won't see nuclear war as a result of

this. If the only nuclear weapons that

we know exist in the Middle East are

destroyed.

>> But if Iran starts disabling Israel's

nukes and attacking Israel that

effectively, there's going to be an even

bigger problem. Well, not not if we're

talking conventional weapons. If it's

conventional weapons and ground trips,

then you don't end up with nuclear

winter and the death of everybody on the

planet.

>> Wait, so you're saying you hope Iran

invades Israel and takes out their

nuclear weapons?

>> No, that's necessarily invasion. It

could be the missiles they've got left.

Again, we don't know how capable their

missiles are. The level of planning that

Iran has done in this war, I I had no

idea of of the fact they had those 31

regions, for example, until the war

began. My special is economics, not

global military politics. But once I

learned that, I thought they have really

thought this through. They have wargamed

what happens if they get attacked by

America. And they've warmed it

comprehensively. Now, I hope they've

also wargamed if we start defeating

Israel and Israel realizes they're going

to be wiped out, then the possibility

for the Samson doctrine comes in. We

have to disable that before it happens.

How could they possib They They don't

have a functioning military left in any

sort of typical sense. They don't have

ships left. They don't have planes left.

>> They don't have ships. They don't have

planes. But they have got missiles. And

we don't know how many missiles they've

got. We don't know where the missiles

are. Certainly the Americans would have

some intelligence. I think the word's

got to be used with inverted commas

these days, but some intelligence over

where they are located in Iran. But if

you listen to the Iranians talking about

it, they say they've got hundreds of

these facilities buried hundreds of

meters below the ground. If the with the

weapons they've developed, the the um

advanced rocketry they've developed,

they can evade RIL's Iron Dome, maybe

they can also get into and destroy

Israel's launch capabilities. And if

that happens, I think that's that would

be the best possible outcome because we

have a a rogue state in the Middle East

which has nuclear weapons which will

neither admit that it has or won't sign

it. They're not part of the nuclear

nonpol proliferation treaty. They won't

sign that treaty. We should never have

allowed that to happen. And if Iran gets

rid of them, I think it's the world's a

safer place.

>> Israel are just going to make more

nuclear weapons.

>> They have the resources. Uh, you need a

hell of a lot of technology and a hell

of a lot of intelligent people to do

that. You've already lost the war to

>> How could Israel lose the war?

>> You've got 90 a population of 90 million

in Iran and a population of less than 10

million in Israel.

>> But they've got it's a sort of

technological

gulf.

>> It's not as big as we thought it was.

We're only realizing now the level of

technology that Iran has. I mean the

things which Iran are doing in this war

so far have surprised everybody who's

hasn't got the background of

intelligence to tell them what's going

on uh it's an educated sophisticated

culture far more so than the caricature

we've got from the west has been about

it in the past so they

>> they don't have near nearly the same

level of resources and technology and uh

and I would say maybe sort of

sophisticated yeah advanced systems from

a war perspective that Israel do.

>> We think we don't know. We're assuming

>> even the intelligence services, even

their like their planes and their

missiles and their defense systems are

like profoundly more advanced than

Iran's.

>> If that was the case, we wouldn't be

having this conversation. It's 3 weeks

after the war began or 4 weeks. You

know, the original belief that Trump has

to be over in one day. That's proved

false.

>> I think that's in part because of what

you said because they've prepared for

decapitation. If I was the supreme

leader of Iran, yeah, that's the sort of

approach I would have taken, which is

you take me out and actually you've got

a bigger problem because now you've got

to negotiate with 41 or 31 different

sort of submillitaries and that's an

impossible task.

>> Yeah. Yeah. And that's the Iranians were

aware of that and they've got a, you

know, a huge army. They've got they can

conscript far more people than Israel

has. Um it's to me if it gets down to an

conventional military then it's possible

that you know Israel could lose that as

well.

>> On March 21 Trump threatened to

obliterate Iran's power plants if they

did not fully reopen the straight of

Hormos within 48 hours.

>> He then came out and said that he was

pausing that because Iran were

negotiating

>> um and he says he he thinks he's

negotiating with the right person. As of

yesterday, Trump has announced a 10day

pause until April 6th on destroying

energy plants, claiming that indirect

talks are going very well and that Iran

is begging to make a deal according to

the Guardian. So, what's going on there

in your view?

>> I think he's gaming the markets. I

really think he's using it to cause the

OMI price to go up and down and gaming

at either side. and somebody in his

circle or people are making a fortune

playing that's the case.

>> Yeah, I do. I mean

>> because there's lots of ways to make

money that don't involve crashing the

global economy, losing the midterms.

>> Yeah, you'd think of that. You've got

you've got ethics, you've got empathy,

you've got morals. Trump has none of

those things.

>> Do you not think it's just it's just

again if we look at Trump's pattern of

behavior over time, even with the

tariffs?

>> Yeah. The same pattern of behavior

occurred there where he would come out

and say, "Every leader is calling me.

They can't stop calling me. They all

want to make a deal. I'm going to do a

tariff on you 10%. Wait, no, I'm not.

Pause. Call me."

>> Yeah.

>> It's the same pattern of behavior. It's

you you make a threat system. Yeah.

>> You then

>> blackmail the person to try and

negotiate with you. when they don't, you

hit them with the thing hard and

eventually in the end of the day, you

don't really do any of the stuff you

threaten to do

>> because you've sort of

>> manipulated a person into getting your

way. It's the same pattern of behavior.

We're going to smash you if you don't

call me.

>> Yeah,

>> they do or don't call. He announces to

the world that they called. They're

begging. Look, it says here, "They're

begging me for a deal. I'm going to give

them 10 more days."

>> To me, it sounds like he's trying to

build his golden bridge to get the

out of there. What he's imagining is

he's dealing with somebody like himself

in Iran. Okay? He's he's projecting what

how he would react to these things. He's

obviously projecting his own behavior

onto the system. And it's projection

rather than understanding. So if you

decapitate, you know, if you took out

Trump, the fear of being, you know,

assassinated, yes, well bargain, what do

you want me to do? He thinks that works

in Iran. It doesn't.

>> You can look at his behavior and sort of

understand what he wants. He wants to

win this war and he he want you know he

wants to win the war and that's and get

out of there because that's what he's

been saying. We've won. We won. We've

won every day. We've won. More missiles

go in. We've won. So that's clearly what

he wants to happen. The problem is

winning here doesn't seem like a

straightforward thing.

>> No, it's not going to happen.

>> No pun intended with a straight up. But

it really doesn't seem like a

straightforward thing.

>> So I it's my opinion now that they are a

little bit stuck because if you leave

now you lose.

>> Yeah.

>> Iran start firing at Israel. Israel

don't stop even though you tell them to.

Yeah,

>> they start firing at each other. The

whole thing blows up. Oil, they keep the

straight of Horos closed. Oil prices go

up. It looks terrible, terrible,

terrible for Trump. We might get he

might find himself in a Bush situation

where his legacy, and I think that's

such an important word, a man that can't

be elected for a third term. His legacy

is tarnished in the same way that Bush's

legacy was tarnished by going to war in

the Middle East. M

>> I think his greatest fear, Trump's

greatest fear, you think back through

all of these moments over the last

couple years where he talked about the

Nobel Prize,

>> I think he's trying to put himself on

the Mount Rushmore of presidents.

>> Yeah.

>> In history's mind.

>> And I think how this situation plays out

now, the sole thing he's thinking about

is his legacy. And right now, being

stuck in a war and contemplating putting

ground troops in is arguably the worst

thing for one's legacy. Americans dead.

>> Yeah. And lots of Americans dead. These

wars are like you think about Vietnam.

These wars are never really won.

>> No. Well, they did. America hasn't won a

war since World War II and even World

War II was won by the Russians more so

than the Americans. So, we have this

picture of America as being this, you

know, invincible military power. But it

lost in Vietnam. It lost in Iraq. It

lost in Afghanistan. America's failed in

all of these. This is another American

failure, but on a scale far beyond what

happened in Afghanistan and Vietnam.

>> Do you think he will send ground troops

in? Yes, I do. Uh, and like I've seen

people talking about where the troops

might land. And the only part of they

can land is is right towards this edge

here with Pakistan, where they might

land to between 2 and 10,000 troops. I'd

hate to be one of those troops because

it's a suicide mission. again with those

31 provinces, the separated um military

commands they've got, the weapons

they've got hidden underground, the

troops themselves who if if you know

that there are Americans landing and

you're Iranian and a soldier, you are

going to attack them like nobody's

business and not be afraid of your own

death because you do think if you get

martyed, it's the remaining people that

you're defending. There will be people

who recognize you as a martyr. It's it's

horrific. If you had to give a sort of

percentage probability of them putting

ground troops in,

>> I would say more than 50%. We're going

to find out in the next couple of weeks.

>> Much of the reason most people haven't

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>> What is the best case scenario? The

Americans have to realize they've lost.

They've not going to negotiate the terms

of reparation. And what Iran has

proposed, when you look at Iran's terms,

they're extremely reasonable. They're

saying America

leaves the whole Asian. America no

longer comes back in this region. No

military bases, no agreements. This

becomes Iranian protectorate. That

becomes an Arabian Empire or not Arabian

Iranian Empire because they're not

they're not Arabs. They're Persians. Uh

so this becomes like a Muslim part of

the world that's you can actually take

the whole region out to here it's all

Muslim and what's been happening and

this is part of the weird religious

elements here you've got the Sunni sect

and the Shiite sect which is a bit like

the Protestants versus the Catholics go

back 500 years and what we're seeing

here is like the 100red years war that

occurred in Europe back in the days when

it was Protestant birth as Catholic was

a serious thing. Um, so we're seeing a

religious war being fought here and the

the Sunni majority about 90% of Muslims

are Sunni. They have focused on their

rivalry with the Shiites. And so what

they've done is they've sided with this

mob to enable United States the states

to so they've sided with the Christians

to strengthen their own Muslim sect

which is the Sunni sect against the

Shiite sect which is Iran is

predominantly Shiite. Now what's

happening here is as soon as the war

started America

the reason the the Arabs agreed to bases

here military bases is they thought it

to protect them from Iran. As soon as

the war starts those spaces are

obliterated the Americans leave and they

realize that hasn't worked at all. So

the deal the Sunnis made to side with

the Christians has proved to be an

extremely bad deal. You're going to have

to have change in who rules these

countries to enable it to happen. But I

think the persuasive case coming out of

this within the Muslim areas is Muslims

stick together. Don't cooperate with the

Christians.

>> Don't cooperate with the United States.

>> I think that's what's going to happen.

>> You think that's going to happen?

>> I hope so because that at least gives us

something which is relatively stable.

This becomes a region that is Muslim.

>> When you say this, you mean the Middle

East?

>> I mean the whole Middle East, Saudi

Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Pakistan as well

because it's a Muslim country.

Afghanistan. This region becomes Muslim

dominated. Shiites and Sunnis start to I

mean the whole idea of of Catholics

fighting Protestants that's completely

dissipated. Um there's no level in in

the west anymore of large scale military

type animosity between Catholics and and

Protestants. That's what's happening

over here. The the conflicts those

religious conflicts within the Cath

within the Christians disappeared

largely speaking. They're still

happening within the Muslim religion.

This could persuade them that that's got

to end.

>> So, we've got one more scenario.

Scenario five.

>> Iran develops nuclear weapons. I'd

rather four happen than five.

>> Which of these five outcomes do you

think is most probable to happen?

>> I think the most likely outcome is Iran

disables Israel's nuclear weapons.

Because Iran has been so prepared for

this conflict in a way that America has

not, in a way that Israel was not. I

hope they're also prepared for the

eventuality of having to neutralize

Israel's nuclear weapons.

>> You think the highest probability is

Iran disabling Israel's nukes?

>> Yeah, I hope I'm right. I mean, if Iran

gets destroyed, then this leads not to

Iran developing nuclear weapons, but

every potential rival for America on the

planet developing nuclear weapons. We go

to a nuclear war dominated world. Do you

not think it's more likely that Trump is

going to find himself a golden bridge to

get out of this situation? He's going to

call Netanyahu in Israel and say, "Stand

down, please. I'm going to announce that

we've won this war. I'm going to

announce that we've done a deal. It's

all over."

>> Well, without doubt, whatever happens,

Trump is going to say he won. Okay,

that's again the narcissistic

personality disorder thing. He simply

couldn't bring himself to stand on a

stage and say, "I lost." I mean, think

about the biggest insult that Trump ever

made in his apprenticeship show. You're

a loser. Okay? Being a loser is the

absolute worst possible thing that

anybody can be in his mind. If he has to

say, "I'm a loser," then his life is

over in that sense. He's self his

selfimage is over. So, whatever deal

comes out, he's going to say he won. For

the for the average person that's

listening now when they hear all this

conflict going on on in the world from

an economic perspective, is there

anything they can be doing to protect

themselves against some of these

downstream consequences?

>> Well, I think one thing is people we

we've now got to the stage where you can

buy your own uh solar systems for your

house. You need something which means

you are not dependent upon oil anymore.

I I think we've trivialized the dangers

of climate change for the last half

century. We've done very little about it

to reverse it. This is telling people

that if you relied upon oil, you've got

a fragile existence. Even if it cost you

more to build solar, you've got to build

solar as your own alternative energy

system. Cuz without energy, there's no

civilization.

And that's what we're learning the hard

way from this conflict. So I think

individual responses is going to be get

some way to have your own power source

and for most people that means having a

solar. One man that has done a lot for

both solar and sustainable energy is

Elon Musk.

>> He has. He's also helped get bloody

Trump elected. So I think you've got to

score that against him as well. But

yeah, his work on solar then and and and

power and rocketry. I've absolutely

admired that and I see that as a

critical positive contribution. But

getting Trump elected, he played a major

role in that. He should learn from that

mistake and get the out of

politics. He has backed off politics

now, which is

>> I think he's realized how poisonous it

is. Yeah.

>> Yeah. It sounds like he's realized you

can't really change the beast. No,

>> he tried.

>> Yeah. He should stick with the era where

he's mature, which is what he does with

energy systems and what he does with

rocketry. He's really I mean, in terms

of legacy, uh, he's tainted his legacy

by getting involved in politics. Go back

to engineering. So you say that you

think people should invest in solar for

their homes to get their own energy

sources so they're a little bit

insulated from these sort of

macroeconomics. Is there anything else

they should be thinking about? You know,

the average person the cost of living

crisis. What what happens next? What

should they be doing now?

>> The thing that I'm most worried about

this is the impact upon food. I'm the

last person to talk about growing your

own food. I've never done it. I'm I've

got brown thumbs, not green ones. But I

think if you can have any way to produce

your own food, you've got a bit of

insulation against what's happening at

the global level. The lesson that comes

out of this is self-sufficiency.

If we don't have self-sufficiency, then

these sorts of global chaotic things can

destroy you completely with you having

no recompense. If you have some degree

of self-sufficiency, you can survive.

>> And how does one create

self-sufficiency? Growing your own food

is quite expensive and slow, isn't it?

>> Yeah, extremely.

>> So, how does one develop

self-sufficiency in this these sort of

economic climates? Is it saving money or

is it um

>> I think it's having your own physical

resources close to you that enable you.

Money doesn't matter if you can't buy

the product in the first instance. The

product doesn't exist anymore. So, one

thing that happened during World War II

is a large amount of food was grown in

the UK by people turning their gardens

into market gardens. I

>> I've heard you make a few predictions

about the future of the economic

markets. You know, you're famous for

predicting 2008 and the financial crash

that occurred then. I've heard you

saying that you think because of AI

there's going to be another financial

crash around the corner within one or

two years.

>> Yeah. What's happening with AI is a

classic economic boom and bust cycle

overlaid on the fact that AI can also

eliminate a huge amount of employment

which we've never seen that possibility

in the past on that scale. But a common

pattern in capitalism is that some new

technology will be developed like

railways for example. Some people see

the potential profitability of railways.

Everybody pours in creating railways.

You get too many railways built. The 90%

of the companies that create the

railways go bust. But then we all have

these rail systems that we benefit from

afterwards. So that's the classic uh

pattern of Joseph Schumpeda was the

person who best described that of that

Austrian economist from the early uh

early 20th century. So he said you'll

get the the banks will finance a new

investment area that investment produces

a new technology which causes a boom

while you're building the technology but

when the technology comes online it

undercuts existing businesses and causes

a slump. So they boom and slump cycle

and AI is a natural example of that and