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18 Years of ETF Investing: My Worst Mistakes (European Investor)

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18 Years of ETF Investing: My Worst Mistakes (European Investor)

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454 segments

0:00

Number one, trading instead of

0:02

investing. Back in 2007, when I was a

0:05

young banker on Wall Street, I got

0:06

excited about day trading. So, day

0:08

traders make quick bets on stocks or

0:11

currencies or crypto. You buy at 10:00

0:14

a.m., you sell at 10:15, you make a fast

0:16

profit and repeat. To younger me,

0:18

trading seemed super exciting. I was

0:21

sure I was about to get rich. But it

0:23

didn't go that way. I remember betting

0:26

on Boeing stock only to watch it crash

0:29

or selling a losing stock just before it

0:32

shot up in price. I just couldn't make a

0:34

consistent profit and I felt horrible

0:37

about it until I looked up the data and

0:39

discovered that the vast majority of day

0:41

traders lose money. I have known a few

0:44

successful traders over my career in

0:46

finance, but most of them work for a big

0:48

bank or hedge fund. They trade with

0:51

other people's money. Most small traders

0:53

who play with their own money end up

0:55

losing. And to me, this makes trading

0:57

one of the worst ways to spend your life

1:00

because it takes a huge amount of time

1:01

and effort and your average expected

1:04

result is negative. Today, instead of

1:06

trading, I invest my money. As an

1:08

investor, you'll find valuable assets

1:10

that create wealth for you. These are

1:13

investments like stocks or real estate

1:15

that grow in value over time, that give

1:17

you cash flow, give you an income. So,

1:20

you find these investments and you hold

1:21

them long-term and you allow them to

1:24

make you wealthy. This works much better

1:26

than trading. And the best part is it

1:29

leaves you free to spend your time on

1:30

your job or business or family or

1:32

hobbies instead of staring at market

1:34

charts all day long. Next mistake,

1:37

investing naked. No, I'm not talking

1:40

about flashing your neighbors as you buy

1:42

a share of Tesla. I'm talking about the

1:44

mistake that my friend Jerome made back

1:46

in 2009. It was the middle of the

1:48

financial crisis. Stocks were down 50%

1:52

and Jerome sold half his stock

1:54

portfolio, not because he wanted to. He

1:56

knew that the market would recover, but

1:58

he had just lost his job, and he simply

2:00

needed the money. Jerome's mistake was

2:03

investing naked. He didn't have a safety

2:05

cushion to spend in case of emergencies.

2:08

If you invest without a safety cushion,

2:10

you will be forced to sell at the worst

2:11

possible time. So, always keep a bit of

2:14

cash in the bank. Next, not investing

2:17

enough. Look, I'm embarrassed to admit

2:19

it, but even though I learned how to

2:22

invest on Wall Street 18 years ago, I

2:24

only started investing significant

2:26

amounts of money around 9 years ago when

2:28

my son was born, and I realized that I

2:31

needed to get serious. I had all this

2:33

investing knowledge, but for years, it

2:35

gave me close to zero benefit. The thing

2:37

is, investing can only multiply the

2:39

money that you put in. If all you invest

2:42

is €20 a month, well, that's a good

2:44

start, but it's only a start. Let's run

2:47

some numbers to understand this better.

2:49

Let's say you have no savings to start

2:50

with and you invest €20 a month and you

2:52

get a profit of 9% per year. So, that's

2:55

a pretty good result, right? Well, if

2:57

you do this for 10 years, you will end

2:59

up with €3,800.

3:02

Now, that is something, right? But it's

3:03

not a life-changing amount. To get real

3:06

significant results, you will probably

3:07

want to invest €200 per month when in 10

3:10

years you might have 38,000 or in 20

3:13

years that would give you 128,000. This

3:16

kind of money can already have a big

3:17

impact. It can be enough to start a

3:19

business or buy a property. Okay? So, if

3:21

you want investing to change your life

3:23

in a significant way, you need to invest

3:26

a significant part of your income. The

3:28

more you put in, the more you get out.

3:30

Here's a related mistake, overestimating

3:33

risk. I think one of the reasons I

3:35

delayed investing for years is that I

3:38

started my career in finance back in

3:40

2007. That was right at the start of the

3:42

financial crisis. I sat on the biggest

3:45

trading floor in the world at UBS as the

3:47

stock market kept crashing and crashing

3:50

and crashing. As major banks like Lehman

3:53

Brothers and Bear Sterns collapsed, as

3:56

my friends and colleagues lost their

3:58

life savings, it seemed like there was

4:00

no safety anywhere. And even though

4:02

intellectually I understood the power of

4:04

investing, even though I knew that the

4:06

market would eventually recover, I think

4:09

that this early experience scared me off

4:11

for a long time now. Over the following

4:14

18 years as a finance professional, I

4:16

have lived through various market dips

4:18

and crashes. The worst came in 2020 when

4:21

as a pension fund CEO, I had to answer

4:24

calls from worried clients when COVID

4:26

caused the market to fall by more than

4:28

30%. But now that I look back at the

4:31

past two decades, major crashes have

4:33

actually been very rare. If you look at

4:36

even longer term historical data, on

4:38

average the stock market goes up around

4:40

three out of every four years. And when

4:42

the market does fall, the average drop

4:45

is fairly small. And after every one of

4:48

those drops, eventually the market

4:50

recovers. So patient investors usually

4:52

make a lot of money. It is just that the

4:54

big crashes when they happen, they are

4:57

super scary. they leave a big

4:59

psychological impact. So, don't make my

5:02

mistake. Don't let the fear of risk stop

5:05

you from investing. The real risk is

5:07

leaving money to sit in your bank

5:09

account. Next, here are a few of the

5:11

most expensive mistakes that I've seen

5:13

my clients and students make. The first

5:15

one is buying individual stocks. The

5:18

other day, I ran a beginner investment

5:20

workshop where I talked about how

5:22

profitable stock investing has been. One

5:24

of the attendees actually stood up and

5:26

said, "That's nonsense. I've been

5:28

investing in stocks for 10 years, but I

5:29

haven't made any money. I could guess

5:31

immediately what the problem was.

5:33

Because over the past 10 years, global

5:35

stock markets have been tremendously

5:37

profitable. But if you pick just three

5:40

to five stocks to buy in your portfolio,

5:42

there's a big chance that you will lose

5:44

money. If you look at decades of data,

5:46

you discover that the average stock in

5:48

the market actually loses investors

5:50

money. Many big famous stocks like Enron

5:53

or Lehman Brothers or Bed Bath and

5:55

Beyond or Kodak have gone to zero. But

5:57

that's not the only bad thing that can

5:59

happen. As many as 40% of all stocks

6:02

experience catastrophic losses of 70% or

6:05

more and they never recover from these

6:07

losses. The stock market has been

6:09

tremendously profitable not because most

6:11

stocks are winners. They are not. It's

6:13

been tremendously profitable because a

6:15

few top stocks are so extremely

6:18

successful that they pull up the average

6:20

for the rest of the market. So, if you

6:22

try to make money by picking individual

6:24

stocks, chances are you will fail. Now,

6:27

you might think, "That's dumb, Tom. I'm

6:29

not going to pick stocks at random. I'm

6:31

not going to pick losing stocks. I will

6:33

only pick the winners." Well, this leads

6:35

us to the next extremely common mistake,

6:38

which is chasing hot stocks. Today, the

6:42

five hottest stocks out there are

6:43

probably Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple,

6:46

Amazon, and Meta. They are the big five

6:48

in the S&P 500. People ask me constantly

6:51

about these stocks. And listen, I'm not

6:54

telling you that these are bad

6:55

investments. With the AI revolution

6:57

happening, there are certainly good

6:59

reasons why many investors are excited

7:01

about these companies. But if we look at

7:03

history, we notice a pattern. In 1990,

7:06

the five biggest stocks in the S&P 500

7:08

were Exxon Mobile, IBM, Walmart, Bristol

7:12

Myers, Squib, and Merc. Out of these,

7:14

only Walmart outperformed the S&P 500

7:17

over the next 35 years. In 2000, the

7:20

five biggest stocks were again Exxon

7:22

Mobile, General Electric, Cisco, Fizer,

7:25

and Walmart. And once more, only Walmart

7:28

outperformed the S&P 500 over the next

7:31

25 years. In 2010, the five biggest were

7:34

Exxon, Apple, Microsoft, Berkshire,

7:36

Haway, and Walmart. Of these, Apple and

7:38

Microsoft outperformed until today,

7:41

while Walmart or less matched the

7:43

performance of the S&P 500. The thing

7:45

is, the biggest and hottest stocks of

7:47

today are often not the best performers

7:50

going forward. That's because any stock

7:52

which is hot today is likely already

7:54

expensive. You cannot jump in and buy it

7:57

at a cheap price. To be really really

8:00

successful picking individual stocks,

8:02

you would have to guess the next Nvidia,

8:04

the next Microsoft, the next Google

8:06

before everybody else. And that is

8:08

extremely difficult. That is why for

8:11

amateur investors, chasing hot stocks is

8:14

usually a mistake. You are usually

8:16

better off buying an index fund or ETF,

8:19

which will put your money into hundreds

8:20

of different stocks in different regions

8:23

and industries. This not only gets

8:25

better results, it's also a lot less

8:27

work. But when people here in Europe

8:29

decide to invest in ETFs or index funds,

8:31

they often make the next mistake, which

8:33

is following American investment advice.

8:36

When I moved home to Europe after 8

8:38

years in America, I felt like I'd landed

8:40

on a different planet. There were

8:42

different investments, different

8:44

regulations, different tax rules for

8:46

everything. And this is something that

8:47

stops so many beginning investors here

8:49

in Europe. You Google index funds or

8:51

ETFs. You find a great blog or book or

8:54

video from some American educator. and

8:57

you try to follow the instructions, but

8:59

you hit a wall. Because of EU

9:01

regulations, you can't buy American

9:03

index funds and ETFs in most European

9:05

countries. Most American brokerages

9:07

won't accept European clients, and

9:09

American tax advice about their 401ks

9:12

and IRA and long-term capital gains

9:14

doesn't really apply to us here in

9:16

Europe. Instead, as a European, you

9:19

should use a local brokerage or

9:20

investment app to make your investments.

9:22

You should follow the tax rules of your

9:24

local country and you should invest in

9:26

ETFs and index funds which follow

9:28

European regulations. By the way, the

9:31

best place to find these ETFs is a

9:32

website called just ETF.com. It's a

9:35

great database listing over 3,000

9:37

different ETFs that are available to us

9:39

here in Europe. Which leads me to the

9:41

next common mistake, picking the wrong

9:44

ETF. There are actually two ways that

9:46

people often mess this up. The first way

9:49

is strategic. People often ask me which

9:51

S&P 500 ETF should I buy? As if the only

9:55

way to invest is to buy the 500 biggest

9:57

American companies. Now, to be clear,

10:00

the S&P 500 has been a great investment

10:02

for decades. And it might still be a

10:04

great investment going forward, but it's

10:06

not the only possible choice. You should

10:08

ask yourself questions like, do I want

10:10

to invest 100% of my money in stocks or

10:13

should I also look at lower risk

10:14

investments like bonds? Should I invest

10:17

only in the American stock market or

10:19

should I also look at Europe or Asia or

10:21

emerging markets? Before you jump

10:23

straight to choosing a specific ETF,

10:25

think about your strategy. Okay? And

10:27

then there's the second type of ETF

10:29

mistake, which is technical. For

10:31

example, this could be buying what is

10:33

called a distributing ETF if you are a

10:36

long-term investor in Portugal. Because

10:38

with these distributing ETFs, you will

10:40

be paying dividend taxes on your ETF

10:42

income every year, which you could have

10:44

avoided by buying what's called an

10:46

accumulating ETF. Another mistake could

10:49

be buying a Luxembourg-based physically

10:51

replicated global stock ETF because this

10:54

means that you would pay extra tax on

10:57

dividends from American stocks compared

10:59

to an ETF that is based in Ireland. Now,

11:02

that might sound complicated, but here's

11:03

the thing. For every major market index

11:06

like the S&P 500 or the Footsie all

11:09

world, there are many types of ETFs

11:11

which track this index. You have

11:14

accumulating and distributing ETFs. You

11:16

have physically and synthetically

11:18

replicated ETFs. You've got ETFs based

11:20

in Ireland and ETFs based in Luxembourg.

11:23

Each of these has different tax

11:25

consequences. Each of them will get you

11:27

different results depending on the

11:28

country where you live. Plus, in some

11:30

countries like Spain, you might not want

11:33

to buy an ETF at all. You could get a

11:35

better tax result by investing in index

11:38

mutual funds instead. So, the technical

11:40

mistake is not optimizing your fund

11:42

choice for your personal situation and

11:45

your local tax rules. I've actually put

11:47

together a training on how to choose the

11:48

best ETFs or index funds for investors

11:51

here in Europe. Just click the first

11:52

link in the description of this video to

11:54

watch it. But now, let's address another

11:57

common beginner mistake, which is

11:59

chasing dividends. And the idea is

12:01

appealing. You invest in a few great

12:03

companies, they earn a profit, and they

12:05

pay you a dividend, which lands in your

12:06

bank account. You're getting cash from

12:08

your investments. What's not to love?

12:10

Well, as it turns out, there's plenty

12:12

not to love about dividend investing.

12:14

First of all, when stocks pay out

12:16

dividends, usually there's some kind of

12:18

tax involved, which takes away part of

12:20

your money and reduces the capital that

12:22

you have available for future growth.

12:24

This is one of the reasons why many of

12:26

the biggest companies in the world pay

12:28

less and less and less in dividends

12:30

these days. Instead, they use other

12:32

mechanisms like share buybacks to

12:34

compensate investors. And second, many

12:36

dividend paying stocks which pay the

12:38

highest dividends actually give you poor

12:41

overall results. They are missing the

12:43

second half of the profit equation,

12:45

which is growth. One of the most

12:47

controversial truths in investing is

12:49

that dividends are simply not that

12:52

important. Chasing dividend paying

12:54

stocks does not improve your expected

12:57

returns. Now, here's another mistake

12:59

that I once made myself. Ignoring taxes.

13:02

When I moved back to my home country,

13:04

Latmia, after working in America, I

13:06

didn't investigate Latian tax rules

13:08

closely enough. I thought I was paying

13:11

what I was supposed to. But one day, I

13:12

got a letter from the government which

13:14

said, "You owe us money." That was

13:16

pretty stressful and it cost me a good

13:18

amount of cash. Don't make the same

13:20

mistake. As soon as you make your first

13:22

investment, you are subject to

13:24

investment taxes. Research what taxes

13:26

you need to pay in your country before

13:28

you get started. And if you're an expat

13:31

or digital nomad, check in which country

13:34

you need to pay these taxes. Messing

13:36

this up is an easy way to get into not

13:39

just financial, but also legal trouble.

13:41

In a moment, I'll share a resource that

13:43

makes this easy. But first, here's

13:45

another big mistake. Timing the market.

13:49

Look at this chart of the S&P 500 over

13:51

the past 25 years. Wouldn't it have been

13:54

smart to buy at these times when stocks

13:57

were cheaper and sell at these times

13:59

when the market was at all-time highs?

14:02

People ask me this all the time and I

14:04

told them, "Brilliant idea. I wish I had

14:06

thought of it first." Okay, that's not

14:07

what I told them because in reality,

14:09

market peaks and bottoms are only

14:11

obvious looking backwards. At any given

14:14

point in time, there is no way to

14:17

predict whether the market is about to

14:19

fall or whether it will keep climbing.

14:21

If you wait for the next big crash to

14:23

buy, sometimes you may have to wait for

14:26

many, many years. And when that crash

14:28

comes, that is usually a scary time.

14:30

There are lots of new headlines

14:32

predicting basically the end of the

14:33

world. It's very hard to convince

14:35

yourself to buy stocks at a time like

14:37

January 2009, the depths of the

14:40

financial crisis or March 2020 when

14:43

COVID hit. There's been a huge amount of

14:45

research done on this and the conclusion

14:47

is pretty much 100%. If you try to do

14:50

market timing, chances are you will

14:52

spend a lot of time and energy, you will

14:55

suffer a lot of stress, and you will

14:56

almost certainly fail. There's a reason

14:58

Warren Buffett said the only value of

15:01

stock forecasters is to make fortune

15:03

tellers look good. There's a reason

15:05

Nobel Prize winner Robert C. Merin

15:07

called market timing a fool's errand. It

15:10

simply doesn't work. The best approach

15:12

for ETF and index investors is to start

15:14

investing today and to keep investing on

15:17

a regular basis no matter what happens

15:19

in the market. Which brings me to

15:21

another important point. Sometimes new

15:23

investors don't want to deal with the

15:25

stress of managing their own

15:27

investments. So they go to their local

15:29

bank and say take care of investing for

15:32

me. And this leads to a major mistake

15:34

which is paying high fees for investment

15:36

advice that you don't understand. A few

15:38

years ago a friend came to me and said

15:40

my banker put together this portfolio

15:42

for me. What do you think? And look, I

15:45

can't give people investment advice. I

15:47

don't have a license for that. But I did

15:49

want to kind of laugh and cry at the

15:51

same time because this portfolio had

15:53

something like 20 different ETFs and

15:56

investment funds. Some of them actively

15:58

managed with high fees. Every time that

16:00

my friend would invest some money, he

16:02

would pay a bunch of fees to buy each of

16:04

these funds. Plus, the bank was charging

16:07

him 1% per year just to manage his

16:09

money. It was basically highway robbery.

16:12

And unfortunately, it's very, very

16:14

common. The typical investments offered

16:16

by your local bank here in Europe are

16:18

expensive and will get you poor results.

16:20

But here's an even bigger danger. When

16:22

you follow the advice of your banker and

16:24

buy investments that you don't

16:26

understand, that doesn't actually take

16:28

away your stress. It increases your

16:30

stress because you're risking your life

16:33

savings on a strategy in which you have

16:35

no confidence. Like my student Anna

16:37

said, how can you trust your financial

16:39

future to something you don't fully

16:41

understand? Now, the good news is

16:43

investing is not such a hard skill to

16:45

learn. You just need to answer a few

16:48

questions like which ETF or index fund

16:50

is best for you, what brokerage can you

16:52

trust, and how do you handle taxes?

16:54

Well, the best way to answer these

16:56

questions is to watch an in-depth video

16:58

on this topic that I put in the

17:00

comments.

Interactive Summary

The video highlights common investment mistakes, starting with day trading, which typically leads to losses, advocating instead for long-term investing in valuable assets. It stresses the importance of an emergency fund to avoid forced selling during downturns and emphasizes investing a significant portion of income for substantial returns. The speaker advises against overestimating market risk due to historical recoveries, despite the psychological impact of crashes. He warns against picking individual stocks or chasing "hot" stocks, recommending diversified index funds or ETFs instead. For European investors, it's crucial to disregard American investment advice due to differing regulations and tax rules, and to use local resources. The video further details common pitfalls in choosing ETFs, including strategic (e.g., asset allocation) and technical (e.g., tax-efficient fund structures) errors. Other mistakes discussed are chasing dividends, ignoring local tax implications, attempting to time the market (which is deemed futile), and paying high, often unnecessary, fees to banks for investment advice that is not fully understood. The speaker concludes by encouraging investors to learn basic principles to confidently manage their own portfolios.

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