18 Years of ETF Investing: My Worst Mistakes (European Investor)
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Number one, trading instead of
investing. Back in 2007, when I was a
young banker on Wall Street, I got
excited about day trading. So, day
traders make quick bets on stocks or
currencies or crypto. You buy at 10:00
a.m., you sell at 10:15, you make a fast
profit and repeat. To younger me,
trading seemed super exciting. I was
sure I was about to get rich. But it
didn't go that way. I remember betting
on Boeing stock only to watch it crash
or selling a losing stock just before it
shot up in price. I just couldn't make a
consistent profit and I felt horrible
about it until I looked up the data and
discovered that the vast majority of day
traders lose money. I have known a few
successful traders over my career in
finance, but most of them work for a big
bank or hedge fund. They trade with
other people's money. Most small traders
who play with their own money end up
losing. And to me, this makes trading
one of the worst ways to spend your life
because it takes a huge amount of time
and effort and your average expected
result is negative. Today, instead of
trading, I invest my money. As an
investor, you'll find valuable assets
that create wealth for you. These are
investments like stocks or real estate
that grow in value over time, that give
you cash flow, give you an income. So,
you find these investments and you hold
them long-term and you allow them to
make you wealthy. This works much better
than trading. And the best part is it
leaves you free to spend your time on
your job or business or family or
hobbies instead of staring at market
charts all day long. Next mistake,
investing naked. No, I'm not talking
about flashing your neighbors as you buy
a share of Tesla. I'm talking about the
mistake that my friend Jerome made back
in 2009. It was the middle of the
financial crisis. Stocks were down 50%
and Jerome sold half his stock
portfolio, not because he wanted to. He
knew that the market would recover, but
he had just lost his job, and he simply
needed the money. Jerome's mistake was
investing naked. He didn't have a safety
cushion to spend in case of emergencies.
If you invest without a safety cushion,
you will be forced to sell at the worst
possible time. So, always keep a bit of
cash in the bank. Next, not investing
enough. Look, I'm embarrassed to admit
it, but even though I learned how to
invest on Wall Street 18 years ago, I
only started investing significant
amounts of money around 9 years ago when
my son was born, and I realized that I
needed to get serious. I had all this
investing knowledge, but for years, it
gave me close to zero benefit. The thing
is, investing can only multiply the
money that you put in. If all you invest
is €20 a month, well, that's a good
start, but it's only a start. Let's run
some numbers to understand this better.
Let's say you have no savings to start
with and you invest €20 a month and you
get a profit of 9% per year. So, that's
a pretty good result, right? Well, if
you do this for 10 years, you will end
up with €3,800.
Now, that is something, right? But it's
not a life-changing amount. To get real
significant results, you will probably
want to invest €200 per month when in 10
years you might have 38,000 or in 20
years that would give you 128,000. This
kind of money can already have a big
impact. It can be enough to start a
business or buy a property. Okay? So, if
you want investing to change your life
in a significant way, you need to invest
a significant part of your income. The
more you put in, the more you get out.
Here's a related mistake, overestimating
risk. I think one of the reasons I
delayed investing for years is that I
started my career in finance back in
2007. That was right at the start of the
financial crisis. I sat on the biggest
trading floor in the world at UBS as the
stock market kept crashing and crashing
and crashing. As major banks like Lehman
Brothers and Bear Sterns collapsed, as
my friends and colleagues lost their
life savings, it seemed like there was
no safety anywhere. And even though
intellectually I understood the power of
investing, even though I knew that the
market would eventually recover, I think
that this early experience scared me off
for a long time now. Over the following
18 years as a finance professional, I
have lived through various market dips
and crashes. The worst came in 2020 when
as a pension fund CEO, I had to answer
calls from worried clients when COVID
caused the market to fall by more than
30%. But now that I look back at the
past two decades, major crashes have
actually been very rare. If you look at
even longer term historical data, on
average the stock market goes up around
three out of every four years. And when
the market does fall, the average drop
is fairly small. And after every one of
those drops, eventually the market
recovers. So patient investors usually
make a lot of money. It is just that the
big crashes when they happen, they are
super scary. they leave a big
psychological impact. So, don't make my
mistake. Don't let the fear of risk stop
you from investing. The real risk is
leaving money to sit in your bank
account. Next, here are a few of the
most expensive mistakes that I've seen
my clients and students make. The first
one is buying individual stocks. The
other day, I ran a beginner investment
workshop where I talked about how
profitable stock investing has been. One
of the attendees actually stood up and
said, "That's nonsense. I've been
investing in stocks for 10 years, but I
haven't made any money. I could guess
immediately what the problem was.
Because over the past 10 years, global
stock markets have been tremendously
profitable. But if you pick just three
to five stocks to buy in your portfolio,
there's a big chance that you will lose
money. If you look at decades of data,
you discover that the average stock in
the market actually loses investors
money. Many big famous stocks like Enron
or Lehman Brothers or Bed Bath and
Beyond or Kodak have gone to zero. But
that's not the only bad thing that can
happen. As many as 40% of all stocks
experience catastrophic losses of 70% or
more and they never recover from these
losses. The stock market has been
tremendously profitable not because most
stocks are winners. They are not. It's
been tremendously profitable because a
few top stocks are so extremely
successful that they pull up the average
for the rest of the market. So, if you
try to make money by picking individual
stocks, chances are you will fail. Now,
you might think, "That's dumb, Tom. I'm
not going to pick stocks at random. I'm
not going to pick losing stocks. I will
only pick the winners." Well, this leads
us to the next extremely common mistake,
which is chasing hot stocks. Today, the
five hottest stocks out there are
probably Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple,
Amazon, and Meta. They are the big five
in the S&P 500. People ask me constantly
about these stocks. And listen, I'm not
telling you that these are bad
investments. With the AI revolution
happening, there are certainly good
reasons why many investors are excited
about these companies. But if we look at
history, we notice a pattern. In 1990,
the five biggest stocks in the S&P 500
were Exxon Mobile, IBM, Walmart, Bristol
Myers, Squib, and Merc. Out of these,
only Walmart outperformed the S&P 500
over the next 35 years. In 2000, the
five biggest stocks were again Exxon
Mobile, General Electric, Cisco, Fizer,
and Walmart. And once more, only Walmart
outperformed the S&P 500 over the next
25 years. In 2010, the five biggest were
Exxon, Apple, Microsoft, Berkshire,
Haway, and Walmart. Of these, Apple and
Microsoft outperformed until today,
while Walmart or less matched the
performance of the S&P 500. The thing
is, the biggest and hottest stocks of
today are often not the best performers
going forward. That's because any stock
which is hot today is likely already
expensive. You cannot jump in and buy it
at a cheap price. To be really really
successful picking individual stocks,
you would have to guess the next Nvidia,
the next Microsoft, the next Google
before everybody else. And that is
extremely difficult. That is why for
amateur investors, chasing hot stocks is
usually a mistake. You are usually
better off buying an index fund or ETF,
which will put your money into hundreds
of different stocks in different regions
and industries. This not only gets
better results, it's also a lot less
work. But when people here in Europe
decide to invest in ETFs or index funds,
they often make the next mistake, which
is following American investment advice.
When I moved home to Europe after 8
years in America, I felt like I'd landed
on a different planet. There were
different investments, different
regulations, different tax rules for
everything. And this is something that
stops so many beginning investors here
in Europe. You Google index funds or
ETFs. You find a great blog or book or
video from some American educator. and
you try to follow the instructions, but
you hit a wall. Because of EU
regulations, you can't buy American
index funds and ETFs in most European
countries. Most American brokerages
won't accept European clients, and
American tax advice about their 401ks
and IRA and long-term capital gains
doesn't really apply to us here in
Europe. Instead, as a European, you
should use a local brokerage or
investment app to make your investments.
You should follow the tax rules of your
local country and you should invest in
ETFs and index funds which follow
European regulations. By the way, the
best place to find these ETFs is a
website called just ETF.com. It's a
great database listing over 3,000
different ETFs that are available to us
here in Europe. Which leads me to the
next common mistake, picking the wrong
ETF. There are actually two ways that
people often mess this up. The first way
is strategic. People often ask me which
S&P 500 ETF should I buy? As if the only
way to invest is to buy the 500 biggest
American companies. Now, to be clear,
the S&P 500 has been a great investment
for decades. And it might still be a
great investment going forward, but it's
not the only possible choice. You should
ask yourself questions like, do I want
to invest 100% of my money in stocks or
should I also look at lower risk
investments like bonds? Should I invest
only in the American stock market or
should I also look at Europe or Asia or
emerging markets? Before you jump
straight to choosing a specific ETF,
think about your strategy. Okay? And
then there's the second type of ETF
mistake, which is technical. For
example, this could be buying what is
called a distributing ETF if you are a
long-term investor in Portugal. Because
with these distributing ETFs, you will
be paying dividend taxes on your ETF
income every year, which you could have
avoided by buying what's called an
accumulating ETF. Another mistake could
be buying a Luxembourg-based physically
replicated global stock ETF because this
means that you would pay extra tax on
dividends from American stocks compared
to an ETF that is based in Ireland. Now,
that might sound complicated, but here's
the thing. For every major market index
like the S&P 500 or the Footsie all
world, there are many types of ETFs
which track this index. You have
accumulating and distributing ETFs. You
have physically and synthetically
replicated ETFs. You've got ETFs based
in Ireland and ETFs based in Luxembourg.
Each of these has different tax
consequences. Each of them will get you
different results depending on the
country where you live. Plus, in some
countries like Spain, you might not want
to buy an ETF at all. You could get a
better tax result by investing in index
mutual funds instead. So, the technical
mistake is not optimizing your fund
choice for your personal situation and
your local tax rules. I've actually put
together a training on how to choose the
best ETFs or index funds for investors
here in Europe. Just click the first
link in the description of this video to
watch it. But now, let's address another
common beginner mistake, which is
chasing dividends. And the idea is
appealing. You invest in a few great
companies, they earn a profit, and they
pay you a dividend, which lands in your
bank account. You're getting cash from
your investments. What's not to love?
Well, as it turns out, there's plenty
not to love about dividend investing.
First of all, when stocks pay out
dividends, usually there's some kind of
tax involved, which takes away part of
your money and reduces the capital that
you have available for future growth.
This is one of the reasons why many of
the biggest companies in the world pay
less and less and less in dividends
these days. Instead, they use other
mechanisms like share buybacks to
compensate investors. And second, many
dividend paying stocks which pay the
highest dividends actually give you poor
overall results. They are missing the
second half of the profit equation,
which is growth. One of the most
controversial truths in investing is
that dividends are simply not that
important. Chasing dividend paying
stocks does not improve your expected
returns. Now, here's another mistake
that I once made myself. Ignoring taxes.
When I moved back to my home country,
Latmia, after working in America, I
didn't investigate Latian tax rules
closely enough. I thought I was paying
what I was supposed to. But one day, I
got a letter from the government which
said, "You owe us money." That was
pretty stressful and it cost me a good
amount of cash. Don't make the same
mistake. As soon as you make your first
investment, you are subject to
investment taxes. Research what taxes
you need to pay in your country before
you get started. And if you're an expat
or digital nomad, check in which country
you need to pay these taxes. Messing
this up is an easy way to get into not
just financial, but also legal trouble.
In a moment, I'll share a resource that
makes this easy. But first, here's
another big mistake. Timing the market.
Look at this chart of the S&P 500 over
the past 25 years. Wouldn't it have been
smart to buy at these times when stocks
were cheaper and sell at these times
when the market was at all-time highs?
People ask me this all the time and I
told them, "Brilliant idea. I wish I had
thought of it first." Okay, that's not
what I told them because in reality,
market peaks and bottoms are only
obvious looking backwards. At any given
point in time, there is no way to
predict whether the market is about to
fall or whether it will keep climbing.
If you wait for the next big crash to
buy, sometimes you may have to wait for
many, many years. And when that crash
comes, that is usually a scary time.
There are lots of new headlines
predicting basically the end of the
world. It's very hard to convince
yourself to buy stocks at a time like
January 2009, the depths of the
financial crisis or March 2020 when
COVID hit. There's been a huge amount of
research done on this and the conclusion
is pretty much 100%. If you try to do
market timing, chances are you will
spend a lot of time and energy, you will
suffer a lot of stress, and you will
almost certainly fail. There's a reason
Warren Buffett said the only value of
stock forecasters is to make fortune
tellers look good. There's a reason
Nobel Prize winner Robert C. Merin
called market timing a fool's errand. It
simply doesn't work. The best approach
for ETF and index investors is to start
investing today and to keep investing on
a regular basis no matter what happens
in the market. Which brings me to
another important point. Sometimes new
investors don't want to deal with the
stress of managing their own
investments. So they go to their local
bank and say take care of investing for
me. And this leads to a major mistake
which is paying high fees for investment
advice that you don't understand. A few
years ago a friend came to me and said
my banker put together this portfolio
for me. What do you think? And look, I
can't give people investment advice. I
don't have a license for that. But I did
want to kind of laugh and cry at the
same time because this portfolio had
something like 20 different ETFs and
investment funds. Some of them actively
managed with high fees. Every time that
my friend would invest some money, he
would pay a bunch of fees to buy each of
these funds. Plus, the bank was charging
him 1% per year just to manage his
money. It was basically highway robbery.
And unfortunately, it's very, very
common. The typical investments offered
by your local bank here in Europe are
expensive and will get you poor results.
But here's an even bigger danger. When
you follow the advice of your banker and
buy investments that you don't
understand, that doesn't actually take
away your stress. It increases your
stress because you're risking your life
savings on a strategy in which you have
no confidence. Like my student Anna
said, how can you trust your financial
future to something you don't fully
understand? Now, the good news is
investing is not such a hard skill to
learn. You just need to answer a few
questions like which ETF or index fund
is best for you, what brokerage can you
trust, and how do you handle taxes?
Well, the best way to answer these
questions is to watch an in-depth video
on this topic that I put in the
comments.
Ask follow-up questions or revisit key timestamps.
The video highlights common investment mistakes, starting with day trading, which typically leads to losses, advocating instead for long-term investing in valuable assets. It stresses the importance of an emergency fund to avoid forced selling during downturns and emphasizes investing a significant portion of income for substantial returns. The speaker advises against overestimating market risk due to historical recoveries, despite the psychological impact of crashes. He warns against picking individual stocks or chasing "hot" stocks, recommending diversified index funds or ETFs instead. For European investors, it's crucial to disregard American investment advice due to differing regulations and tax rules, and to use local resources. The video further details common pitfalls in choosing ETFs, including strategic (e.g., asset allocation) and technical (e.g., tax-efficient fund structures) errors. Other mistakes discussed are chasing dividends, ignoring local tax implications, attempting to time the market (which is deemed futile), and paying high, often unnecessary, fees to banks for investment advice that is not fully understood. The speaker concludes by encouraging investors to learn basic principles to confidently manage their own portfolios.
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