SpaceX is a special company, we all know

that, right? SpaceX didn't ask for

permission, it asked for forgiveness.

They just moved at a million miles an

hour in terms of their build-out, their

innovation. I heard, you know, they just

did whatever they had to do to get those

rockets off. I mean, that's kind of the

story that a lot of people know about

behind the scenes. They didn't

necessarily go through proper channels

in terms of building out that program,

and it worked for them. SpaceX is

miraculous. Like, SpaceX is one of the

most spectacular companies we have ever

seen in our life, and the innovation

there has just been ridiculous. It's an

amazing company. Like, I don't think

anybody would argue that SpaceX is an

insanely amazing company. It's just the

valuation.

>> I love the company, I love the vision, I

love what they've done historically, I

love what they have the chance to do. I

just don't love it as an investment at

these prices.

>> Why would we pay 6x what we could have

bought this for? Like, just a very short

time ago, right?

>> I'm kicking myself for not buying back

in, you know, a couple years ago.

>> Who knows what's going to happen between

now and 180 days from what, Thursday?

So, you know, maybe you get the chance

again.

>> That's the thing. That this company has

a really small float. They are going to

accelerate the entry into at least some

of the indexes, meaning that the indexes

will be forced to purchase off of a very

small float. So, there's essentially a

massive tailwind and almost like a floor

on this stock, at least from my

perspective. So, it feels like the stock

probably should do okay or pretty good

unless people are figuring out ways

early on to hedge their positions that

they're looking to liquidate once

they're able to liquidate those

positions, right? And Elon has this tier

structure where the better the stock

does, the the more you could liquidate

early. Like, if the stock is up 30% from

its IPO, I think investors are allowed

to start liquidating that stock. Listen,

here's the thing, guys. It's really hard

to assess how this does over the next 6

to 12 months. Just really difficult. I

think investors are falling into a trap

not because they choose to invest in

SpaceX, but because they choose to spend

so much of their time researching and

thinking about SpaceX. If you want to

invest in SpaceX, fine. Do it. But if

you're spending an an unordinary amount

of your time reading, you know, X post

and articles and thinking about SpaceX,

that I think is the biggest investment

mistake that you've made all year

because there are so many great

investment opportunities right now and

you're just spinning your wheels

following the herd doing what all the

other idiotic investors do, which is

wasting their time on something that

they should be spending maybe 15 minutes

analyzing and making a decision on.

There are some trades here around

SpaceX. We can talk about those. I think

I think this IPO is going to lead to

some interesting

I would say I think it increases my

conviction on some other stocks. All

right, we we should maybe talk about

that.

>> SpaceX isn't the only mega IPO that

we're talking about. So, OpenAI just

yesterday announced that they are going

public. They posted a blog. They're not

yet saying when. Their last valuation

was 850 billion. And then last week we

had Anthropic at 965 billion after

raising an additional 65 billion. That

Anthropic last week announced that

they're public. So, what is an investor

to do to split their funny money amongst

all of these IPOs?

>> If you want to be a great investor, the

time to be making those moves were

months ago, years ago on SpaceX, right?

So, like we when we invest in SpaceX, we

had a thesis that Elon would continue to

kind of paint this picture of what

SpaceX is capable of because it was a

space company, it would be hard to

disprove, that retail investors would

pour into the IPO and we would make an

insane amount of money throwing our

money in at 30 something billion and

exiting at something much larger than

that. Now, that's exactly the way this

played out other than us getting thrown

out of the fund.

>> the logic at the time was that SpaceX

was never going to IPO and that

hopefully there would be something that

was a spin-off. Well, that was the logic

at the time.

>> That we all knew SpaceX was going to

IPO. The exit was always going to be the

IPO, right? And whether they IPO'd or

basically IPO'd every single facet of

SpaceX separately, it didn't really

matter, right?

>> That's where I thought our heads were at

the time is that we have Starlink that

can IPO. We have all these technologies

that are offshoots of the master rocket

company that

they might IPO independently.

>> Yeah, I mean it it really doesn't matter

either way, right? The bottom line is we

were investing early

knowing that that was an inevitability.

Now, we're here at the inevitability and

I have

not a whole lot of interest investing

today because I'm not sure that there's

anything that I'm aware of related to

SpaceX that other investors aren't.

There's a lot of debate, but man, this

valuation is absolutely wild, guys. I

just I'm staying away from it here. I

just don't care about it. I care about

other things in this market. I think

there are companies that will benefit

from this IPO. They're What What are

they getting? 80 billion, Jordan? Is

that roughly?

>> Yeah, somewhere around like 75 billion.

>> So, they're getting 75 billion. You have

to ask yourself, where's that money

going? I think the most interesting

partnership that SpaceX has right now is

Intel. We all know that the future of

AI, at least over the next 5 years, is

really oriented around fabrication and

chips. And that Intel partnership is

super interesting to me. I've heard

some, you know, some people in my

network have even talked talked me about

the possibility of SpaceX trying to

acquire Intel. I think there might be

some regulatory issues there. I think

they probably like to acquire Intel.

Whether they actually acquire the

company or do what Jensen did at Nvidia

recently with one of his acquisitions

where they just basically acquire the

parts, right? Or they they they

structure deals to where they have

exclusive access and licenses to the

technology, to the chipsets that

essentially is the same as them

acquiring Intel. Either way, or even if

they just end up spending a ton of money

with Intel because Intel is an early

partner of TerraFab. They're obviously

closely associated with the United

States, which we know Elon loves deals

like that because it gives him

advantages in DC trying to get those

deals done. I think Intel's really

interesting here. I think Intel's almost

like a call option on SpaceX and the

success of SpaceX in AI. Now, that said,

Elon has also talked about obviously

developing his own chips, in which case,

I think, you know, Jordan, if he goes

down that road, would you agree you kind

of have to move to,

you know, some of the fabrication

companies themselves, right? ASMI, those

would be the beneficiaries of him

actually getting in the chip business,

right? But then really across the entire

spectrum of AI, especially Nvidia, I

think, no matter what, Nvidia is going

to be

the cornerstone of his kind of AI

infrastructure build-out. So, that's a

positive for Nvidia as well. So, these

aren't necessarily sexy trades, but it's

yet another massive tailwind supporting

AI infrastructure. And if you do your

homework on SpaceX, you can kind of see

which of those players is most likely to

benefit most, even SMCI, right? They are

a company that I think was a key

infrastructure supplier to Elon's last

major

>> SMCI just got a big contract. I don't

remember who threw. The problem with

SMCI is that they are just not a trusted

name anymore with some of those scandals

that they've been through.

>> They weren't a trusted name before,

they're not a trusted name now, and

that's kind of a known. But, if Elon's

coming into this money and he's about to

do the biggest fab the biggest data

factory ever, right? By like an insane

like factor of 10 or 30, whatever it is,

over any other data factory, and SMCI is

providing liquid cooled infrastructure

there, that's a real needle mover for

them, wouldn't you say? So, like, in my

head, I'm thinking SMCI, I'm thinking

Nvidia, I'm thinking Intel. Uh these are

companies that are likely to benefit

more than others from the general

success of SpaceX. So, that that's where

my head is going, at least, if I wanted

to play this in any way.

>> And SpaceX, for me, is something that

could go up 50% or down 50% in a week,

and I would not be shocked either way.

>> I think it's really important as an

investor not to act like Jim Cramer and

say when you don't know, okay? So, like,

I actually don't know what's going to

happen with SpaceX. I do not know if

over the 6 months whether the amount of

SpaceX supply that's going to be coming

in from people that have held it for 7

years and are on huge gains is going to

outweigh the retail demand.

>> The index demand. Yeah, all the 401(k)s

that now have SpaceX in it overnight.

>> But, most importantly, the hype cycle of

everything this company is going to be

in 2 years, 5 years, 10 years, 20 years,

right? So, like, it's really hard to

tell how people will react to that stuff

because you can't apply normal logic to

it. Because if Elon comes out and says,

or some analyst comes out and says,

"Hey, they're going to mine $10 trillion

of space rock for rare earths starting

in 2034."

What are you going to say to that? Like

like then there's going to be a fight

that no one's going to listen to because

everyone has short attention spans. No

one's reading a 20-page report or

rebuttal on that. They're just seeing

the headline and like, "Wow, it's

another $10 trillion for SpaceX." And

maybe that actually works and gets

SpaceX to pump. Now, with the analyst or

the hedge fund or whoever that wrote the

initial report, do they actually think

that, or were they trying to pump it?

Does it even matter?

>> Look, intentions intentions are one

thing, but message sent is not always

message received. So, yeah, who knows?

>> Th- This is what I

freaking hate about investing in 2026.

There's not like a really solid baseline

for rational thinking, all right? So,

you just have to know that going in.

SpaceX is is is really difficult to

assess, I think. So, I I just don't

know. I'd probably sell half cuz I just

don't know, okay? I would focus on

something I do know more about.

>> The conclusion of today's episode is

SpaceX, I just don't know, man.

>> [laughter]

>> But at least we're honest. At least

we're honest. We just don't know.