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OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar: IPO, AI Rivalries, New Device, and Spending $100B+ on Compute

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OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar: IPO, AI Rivalries, New Device, and Spending $100B+ on Compute

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920 segments

0:00

Open AI's CFO, Sarah Friar.

0:02

>> We're going to get right to it. You have

0:04

just completed what I regard [music] as

0:05

the most successful fundraising round in

0:08

history.

0:10

>> We're going to raise [music] actually

0:11

north of a hundred and twenty billion

0:13

dollars. We think AI is the biggest era

0:16

that we've seen [music] today. We're

0:17

just starting to understand what it's

0:18

going to mean for global productivity

0:20

and with that, you [music] know,

0:21

hopefully more affluence, better lives

0:24

for everyone. Luck is whatever the

0:26

preparation meets [music] opportunity,

0:28

but you got to grab it.

0:31

Long time listener, first time caller.

0:34

Quite exciting.

0:36

To get to hang out with all the bros

0:38

here. Hello.

0:39

>> [laughter]

0:39

>> We weren't sure how to start this off,

0:41

but I thought the best thing was to

0:42

allow our erstwhile crypto czar to maybe

0:45

>> erst

0:46

>> say a few comments and

0:47

>> I saw an article today. I think it might

0:48

have been in the Wall Street Journal

0:50

that the perception is that there's an

0:52

advantage to IPOing earlier if you're an

0:57

AI company. So now we know SpaceX is

0:59

going. And then the question is when's

1:01

when are Open AI and Anthropic going to

1:04

go? And I'm curious, how do you think

1:07

about that? Do you think there is a

1:08

little bit of a race on or, you know,

1:11

you haven't made a decision about that

1:12

yet?

1:12

>> Like in the end, an IPO, I say this to

1:15

the team all the time, it's a milestone.

1:17

It is not a destination. Do not run your

1:20

company as if that's some sort of

1:22

destination. It's just another way to

1:23

fund raise. We just did, you heard me on

1:26

on the the the sizzle reel, raise a

1:29

hundred and twenty-two billion dollars

1:30

in March and that was to give ourselves

1:33

maximum flexibility. I feel like my job

1:36

as a CFO is create optionality for this,

1:41

not just this company, but just this era

1:44

that we're living in.

1:44

>> Sarah, was that

1:46

that point in fundraising, is that the

1:48

biggest private or public up until the

1:50

SpaceX IPO?

1:51

>> It is.

1:52

>> Right.

1:52

>> It is by orders of magnitude. I think

1:53

the largest IPO to date was the Saudi

1:55

Aramco, which was about $30 billion.

1:59

So, it is actually incredible that

2:00

you're going to have potentially three

2:02

IPOs at a scale that will be bigger even

2:05

than 2001,

2:07

2000, that that time frame. There was a

2:09

lot that went on in the market, too. But

2:11

the market has grown. And by the way,

2:12

the other thing going on in the market

2:14

is like if you look at buybacks, M&A,

2:16

and so on, there's actually a lot of

2:18

capital keeps being returned back to

2:20

shareholders in cash. So, there is a lot

2:22

of money sitting on the sidelines. But

2:25

in the spirit of like the question,

2:28

David, I think in the end you want to

2:31

you'll be measured, right? It's the In

2:33

the end, the market is a weighing

2:34

machine, not a popularity machine. No

2:36

one remembers who won first, Google or

2:38

Yahoo, Lyft or Uber. And I say that not

2:40

because well, I want to be first or

2:42

second, but I just think it's you know,

2:44

the the press loves a bit of drama, but

2:46

in the end we're going to have to build

2:47

big, sustainable, durable companies. And

2:50

fundraising will be a key component of

2:52

doing exactly that.

2:53

>> Sarah, breaking news.

2:55

>> Oh my god, so many people coming at me.

2:57

Hi, Jason. [laughter]

2:57

>> I know. It is it is it is hard balancing

2:59

four interviewers at the same time.

3:02

>> This is my world, by the way, so I'm

3:04

good with this, Jason.

3:05

>> Anthropic just

3:07

uh confidentially filed their S-1. So,

3:10

does that mean you're third place in

3:12

terms of the filing?

3:13

>> It does not mean anything yet because

3:15

[laughter] you have to run now the

3:17

gauntlet of the SEC, and who knows how

3:19

long that takes for anyone.

3:21

>> Yeah, is it Is there though a

3:24

benefit to them going forward, and I

3:25

think unpacking the rivalry with

3:27

Anthropic is on everybody's minds. So,

3:31

just I I guess you can't talk too much

3:33

about IPOs, so I'll just pivot to

3:36

Anthropic was far behind, and now

3:39

they've really um I think everybody

3:41

would agree in the industry now blown

3:43

past OpenAI in terms of developers and

3:47

corporations, and it seems revenue.

3:49

So, did

3:51

How did that happen at OpenAI when you

3:52

had such a tremendous lead? How did

3:55

Anthropic blow past you guys?

3:57

>> So, let's talk a little bit about our

3:59

strategy. Our strategy's different,

4:01

right? So, we are building the AI layer,

4:04

the infrastructure, and it's really

4:06

important that there's a single

4:07

foundation, but then with many

4:09

interfaces out into the world. So,

4:12

ChatGPT is one to the consumer. Over 900

4:16

million people use ChatGPT weekly, and

4:19

it's become the noun and the verb. It's

4:20

how most people experience AI for the

4:23

first time. Kind of fun fact, our

4:25

economic research team just showed me

4:27

the fastest growing continents now are

4:30

Africa, probably not totally surprising

4:32

since it started at a small base.

4:33

Fastest growing languages are

4:36

Azerbaijani and

4:39

what Kazakhstani? What is it's Kazakh.

4:41

>> Kazakh.

4:41

>> Um which is kind of incredible to talk

4:44

about where it's going. So, multiple

4:45

interfaces, ChatGPT, of course there's

4:48

Codex, um just hit 5 million over the

4:51

weekend. We're really proud of that

4:52

coming from almost zero in January.

4:55

>> users.

4:55

>> Go Codex.

4:57

Um helped me prepare for this little

4:58

special up here, too.

5:00

Um there's of course Frontier, our

5:01

enterprise offering, and everything

5:04

every other way that we can get out

5:06

there to reach businesses of all sizes.

5:07

That is a very different strategy. We

5:10

think that because it's served up on one

5:12

model, there's a compounding element of

5:15

advantage that comes from that. More

5:17

users, more data, more ability to

5:19

personalize. ChatGPT acts as a front

5:22

door. As we as models get bigger,

5:24

there's more efficiency. That should

5:26

lower the overall cost to give you a

5:28

token in the world. That should compound

5:30

to higher gross margins, ultimately more

5:33

ways to pay for compute, and then access

5:35

to compute is one of the really big

5:37

competitive advantages at the moment.

5:39

So, you know, we have to all run our own

5:41

races, but we all have to recognize

5:43

we're part of an ecosystem that also

5:45

needs to bring people along

5:47

collectively.

5:48

>> Did you spread a little bit too thin to

5:50

many projects? People are talking about

5:52

this new gadget, Sora, and and then

5:55

maybe not enough focus on enterprise. Is

5:57

that a fair assessment of if there was a

5:59

mistake in the last year? That was it?

6:01

>> No, I I think that the world loves to go

6:03

to binaryisms. Like, are you a consumer

6:05

company, Sarah? Are you an enterprise

6:07

company? The reality is we're very much

6:09

both. We're not one or the other. Right

6:12

now, our revenue's getting pretty

6:14

balanced, about 50/50. We are incredibly

6:17

focused on the enterprise. Like, I spend

6:19

so much of my time with I mean, just

6:21

even in the last week, I could tell you

6:23

I've been to see Thermo Fisher in

6:24

Boston. I was with a bunch of banks in

6:27

New York. I was on the phone with

6:29

Travelers on Friday. I spent this

6:31

morning on the phone with a tech

6:33

company. Doesn't matter the vertical.

6:35

People are really moving on AI right

6:37

now. Our new head of revenue, Denise

6:39

Dresser, in seat since December, she is

6:41

a force of nature. And so, I think the

6:44

enterprise, broadly speaking, is really

6:46

firing on all cylinders. But, we don't

6:48

want to leave the consumer behind.

6:50

Remember our mission at OpenAI is AGI

6:53

for the benefit of humanity, not for the

6:56

benefit of humanity who can pay, or for

6:57

the benefit of humanity who live in an

6:59

enterprise, but very broad-based.

7:02

Um it's why we offer so much free,

7:06

because we want people to get a taste.

7:08

Once they get a taste of intelligence,

7:10

the ability to come up a commitment

7:12

curve is incredible. Our free users do

7:14

about seven turn seven questions a day.

7:17

Our first paid tier do double that,

7:19

about 15. Our Our real paid tier, the

7:22

plus, 20 bucks, hopefully you're all on

7:24

it or higher, about 3x. And pro, about

7:28

um 11x

7:30

over a free user. So, remember when you

7:32

got your flip phone, and you're like,

7:34

yeah, I don't know what it does, make

7:35

some calls. Now, that same phone, think

7:38

of all the things it does for you.

7:40

That's the path we're on with

7:41

intelligence right now. Sorry, Chuck.

7:42

>> You said

7:43

>> very influential. I think it was about

7:45

18 months ago for a lot of us in the

7:47

industry where you framed a very simple

7:49

economic trade-off which was gigawatts

7:51

to cash. And I think you said 1 gigawatt

7:54

is roughly equivalent to about 10

7:56

billion dollars a year of revenue to

7:59

OpenAI.

8:00

So, comment number one was this 1

8:02

gigawatt equals 10 billion dollars a

8:04

year of revenue for you. But, it's not

8:06

just you cuz you can probably

8:07

extrapolate that to Anthropic and other

8:09

folks Gemini.

8:11

But, then you were really at the

8:12

forefront of getting access to power and

8:14

data centers and powered land. It seemed

8:16

a little crazy, but now it looks like

8:19

hold on, there's a huge deficit of

8:21

supply. Can you just unpack all of that

8:23

and explain

8:24

both the spectrum of where we are and

8:26

then those specific economics and if

8:28

that's changed?

8:29

So, first of all, yes, compute is a very

8:32

scarce resource at the moment. We what

8:35

we see in our business, we're going up

8:36

that kind of vertical wall of demand

8:38

right now and there's just not enough

8:40

tokens available. So, I'm very grateful

8:44

that I got to work alongside Greg and

8:46

Sam. I think we really put our press

8:48

hand on this. And last year, we were

8:49

definitely taking some, you know, arrows

8:51

in the back about why are they out there

8:53

buying all this computes? And I think

8:55

thank God we did because in 2026, we

8:58

still won't have enough compute. Um,

9:01

where are we on the compute continuum?

9:02

There's kind of choke points everywhere.

9:04

And and I think they will continue to

9:06

move back and forth. I mean, you all

9:08

talk about this and know this.

9:10

As well as anyone I'm here, whether it's

9:13

energy first and foremost, um, land,

9:15

power, how we get regulatory, um,

9:18

environments such that we can build

9:20

quickly. Um, when you get into the racks

9:23

and chips themselves, clearly, do we

9:24

have enough, um, in that supply chain?

9:27

Memory spike is is on at the moment.

9:30

Access to great talent. Um, do we have

9:32

enough people coming through our

9:33

education system? I really worry about

9:35

this right now. I'm a trustee at

9:37

Stanford and you know, I see just that

9:40

you know, we need to keep the focus on

9:42

education and science.

9:44

And then trust. I mean, I actually put

9:46

that as part of the supply chain.

9:48

Sam right now is in Saline, Michigan.

9:50

He's going to be cutting the ribbon in

9:52

about 2 hours. So you are getting a

9:53

sneak preview, but they told me it was

9:55

okay to say it in the room.

9:57

That will be, you know, sticking shovels

9:59

in the ground on a 1 gigawatt data

10:01

center, which is part of our Oracle

10:03

complex. Really important there on the

10:05

trust side that we don't leave

10:07

communities behind. I spent 7 years of

10:10

my life working at Nextdoor doing the

10:12

hard work of what it means to be local.

10:15

And you cannot tell people from top down

10:17

what they need cuz they will tell you,

10:19

"Thank you, but no thank you. I will

10:21

tell you what I need." And so in a data

10:23

center like that, we're actually

10:25

spending a lot of time in the community

10:26

saying, "Number one, we're not going to

10:28

raise your electricity bills. We're

10:30

going to pay for our infrastructure and

10:31

our power. It will not be the ratepayer

10:33

that has to pay. Number two, we're going

10:35

to bring jobs. 2,500 union jobs.

10:39

Good jobs. Like electricians, HVAC, and

10:41

so on.

10:43

We are going to pay our taxes. A billion

10:45

dollars in taxes just for that data

10:48

center into Michigan. And on top of

10:50

that, we're going to invest 45 million

10:53

dollars going into education for Codex

10:55

credits to do what you all talked about

10:57

this weekend. It's like anyone who's not

10:59

like coming in fossil to their new job.

11:02

I have teenagers using Codex. It would

11:04

be like I would never hire a finance

11:06

person didn't know how to use Excel. And

11:08

I pretty much probably wouldn't hire a

11:09

finance person today that doesn't know

11:10

how to use a tool like Codex. So that,

11:14

you know, so when I think about

11:16

investment, we're having to invest ahead

11:18

of demand. That means we need to both be

11:20

able to find all of the compute and all

11:23

the pieces and then pay for it. So that

11:25

goes back to your capital question on

11:26

IPO. And then on the other side on the

11:28

economics, look, the economics do

11:30

continue to get better. They're getting

11:32

better on multiple fronts. I think we

11:34

are doing a better job of actually

11:36

showing true value to our customers. And

11:38

I think you get beyond kind of a cost

11:40

plus type pricing into something that

11:42

feels more akin to the value being

11:45

created. Now, scarcity of tokens helps

11:47

cuz it's causing a bit of a compression

11:49

in time.

11:49

>> about that in just like without specific

11:53

names, where you know the landscape

11:55

exists today in terms of all the power

11:58

that's available and all the demand that

11:59

exists across everybody?

12:01

>> Yep.

12:02

>> What's going to happen over the next

12:04

year just at the current course and

12:06

speed of what is available? Of the data

12:08

centers that's available, of the tokens

12:09

that's available, of the infrastructure

12:11

that's available for everybody because I

12:13

you know I told this story last week but

12:16

you know I'll use Anthropic and one of

12:17

the frustrating things is at some point

12:18

it just says you know 10:30 it's like

12:20

all right Chamath see you at 2:30.

12:22

>> Yeah.

12:22

>> And that's not a viable experience.

12:25

>> Right.

12:26

Um

12:26

>> And in fairness to ChatGPT actually I've

12:28

never had that with

12:29

>> Yeah, we we're quite generous with our

12:31

tokens and again on purpose we're trying

12:34

to drive access so people understand cuz

12:37

if you're on that free tier not actually

12:39

getting the latest model but we're

12:40

trying to put it in your hands so you

12:42

get a sense for it by the way because

12:45

you know if you're a kid um doing

12:47

homework like I think about when I grew

12:49

up and the encyclopedias Britannicas

12:51

showed up at the front door in Northern

12:54

Ireland in a tiny little community in

12:56

the middle of the troubles it was like

12:57

the clouds parted and so we want to make

12:59

sure that people get that feeling by the

13:01

way. But the landscape right now in 2026

13:04

if you want to buy more compute good

13:06

luck to you. Like tell me cuz I don't

13:09

know where else to find it. I mean as

13:10

you know Elon has some. Well I was going

13:11

to say Elon ironically ended up being

13:14

the one person that had too much compute

13:17

in a way um but good job on like

13:19

figuring out how to sell that off.

13:22

Um in 2027 it's pretty limited as well

13:25

frankly. Now there's a couple of things

13:27

shifting around. When we talk about

13:29

compute, there's training that mostly

13:32

still all happens here in the United

13:34

States for USG reasons, for making sure

13:37

that a national asset in effect is

13:39

happening on US soil. For inference, we

13:42

want that to be global. And I think

13:44

particularly in an agentic world, you

13:46

want much more kind of real-time. Even

13:48

for things like Sora and video, which by

13:50

the way, yeah, we have you know, we had

13:52

to make a really tough choice cuz we

13:54

didn't have enough compute.

13:56

>> And it uses a lot.

13:57

>> Right now, yeah, video does. But video

13:59

is not over. Like in particular, when

14:02

you start to think about where AI is

14:04

taking us into more multimodality. So,

14:07

remember, we've all been taught by the

14:10

last generation of technology to talk

14:12

with our thumbs. It's a disease. You

14:14

walk around, everyone's looking down,

14:16

they don't look up anymore. Teenagers

14:18

sit on my sofa at night and talk to each

14:21

other with their thumbs. I'm like, "Who

14:22

are you talking to?" And then my son

14:23

will be like, "Him." I'm like, "Okay."

14:26

Talk. Multimodality is here. Um

14:29

hopefully, I think you all talked about

14:31

it this weekend. You're talking to your

14:33

tool. I talk to Codex every day. And so

14:35

that is changing rapidly, but that is

14:38

going to need much more kind of

14:39

real-time compute cuz it's an odd

14:41

experience. If I was talking to Chamath

14:43

>> Johnny Ive's this puck and his ear

14:45

pieces. So, maybe tell us a little bit

14:47

about that project. You've admitted it

14:48

now.

14:49

>> If I if I tell you it's an ear piece,

14:50

Johnny will come and steal my teenage

14:52

son. I might give it to him, give him to

14:54

him.

14:54

>> you

14:55

>> Uh but

14:56

>> We You believe that there should be

14:57

>> We're changing into a consumer substrate

15:00

that I cannot tell you what it is, but

15:02

by the end of this year, we will unveil

15:04

it. Early next year, you'll be able to

15:05

buy it. I have seen it. I've tried it. I

15:07

am a hand talker. Right now, I'm sitting

15:09

on my hands.

15:10

>> Did you have a Did you have a paradigm

15:12

shift? When when Yeah, when you used it,

15:13

was it like having an iPhone for the

15:14

first time?

15:16

>> It's very

15:18

What Johnny and team are really good at

15:20

is

15:21

bringing humanity to devices and I don't

15:24

really know how to explain that well,

15:26

but when you see it, you feel it.

15:28

>> It feels natural in some way?

15:29

>> It feels very natural, but it feels very

15:32

lovable.

15:33

>> Really?

15:34

>> And I can't really explain what that

15:36

emotion is cuz so much

15:37

>> Intimate in some way in terms of

15:39

>> technology is

15:40

>> Not taking your phone out and it's it's

15:42

seamless is what I've heard from people

15:43

who played with it.

15:44

>> is very um can be very mechanistic, but

15:48

we all know great design just makes

15:50

everything fade away, right? It's what

15:52

um at the time, you know, the simple is

15:55

hard.

15:56

>> Yeah.

15:56

>> Um

15:56

>> I think this is a very

15:58

this story just going back to the

15:59

earlier question, so putting on

16:01

the CFO hat, help us understand the

16:04

capital allocation model that you use.

16:07

Cuz a lot of businesses over the last

16:09

decade, two decades that have kind of

16:11

been these outsized returners have found

16:14

some unique way to deploy capital at a

16:16

higher ROC than anyone else and then you

16:18

end up plowing all your capital into

16:20

that higher ROC bucket.

16:22

>> Yeah.

16:23

>> What is that for you guys and how do you

16:25

think about that led that portfolio

16:26

approach to having more of these kind of

16:28

big returner shots and is there an

16:30

engine where that gets better over time?

16:32

>> There has to be because

16:34

in the end, the durable, high value

16:37

companies created in this era, I don't

16:40

think they're not going to be magical.

16:41

They're going to look like the great

16:42

companies of prior eras. They're going

16:44

to create customer value. Starts with

16:47

the customer um and really helps the

16:49

customer do something different, better,

16:52

more revenue, more efficiency, right?

16:55

Thermo Fisher wants to be able to get um

16:59

patient screening done faster so they

17:01

get FDA approval faster. That's really

17:03

important. Like if you have a form of

17:05

cancer where you have weeks to live, the

17:08

difference between a breakthrough in

17:10

four weeks and two weeks can literally

17:11

be life or death.

17:13

They also have, I'm going to misquote

17:15

this, but something like 30,000, 38,000

17:18

people in the field selling those

17:20

amazing like if you walk into any lab in

17:22

the country, you'll just see Thermo

17:24

Fisher plastered all over every device.

17:26

Those people want to be more efficient

17:28

going to work. Like the the fastest

17:30

takeoff of Codex within Open AI right

17:32

now is actually in our go-to-market

17:34

team. Our devs are there, but like if

17:36

you look at the pace of growth kind of

17:38

month over month, it's all in GTM. So,

17:40

they want more productivity out of their

17:42

GTM team. And of course, um they're

17:44

doing things in areas like finance,

17:46

which I get really excited about. But

17:47

so, customer value first. From that, now

17:50

you need to get to a great gross margin.

17:52

So, how do you get to a great gross

17:53

margin? You're looking at like the cost

17:55

of revenue. The main input is compute.

17:58

The good news on compute is that there

18:00

is a massive deflationary curve on cost.

18:02

Right from Chat GPT uh 5 to 5.4, I think

18:08

the deprecation cost was something like

18:10

97%. It's like a kind of an amazing

18:12

curve. Actually, I'm slightly from 4 to

18:15

5.4, it was 97%. But that happened in

18:18

like 2 years. It's kind of wowing,

18:21

right?

18:21

>> That's incredible.

18:22

>> Um even our newest model, if you look at

18:24

5.5 that we just released, we're trying

18:26

to now translate that back to the

18:28

customer. So, we actually raised prices

18:30

on 5.5 2x. But if you look at what the

18:33

cost of the customer is, they're

18:34

probably still getting a break of about

18:36

20 to 30% cost reduction per token

18:39

because it's just much more efficient

18:41

per token. So, there's a lot to do in

18:43

that envelope.

18:44

>> Yep.

18:44

>> And and part of making an a capital

18:46

allocation decision is having to

18:49

if you make it on today's cost profile,

18:51

you actually might misprice the

18:53

outcomes. You have to lean in a little

18:55

on the cost profile. And then as we

18:57

think about like the builds, yeah, you

18:59

are having to make like really my focus

19:02

today on compute is what's the compute I

19:05

can buy for '28 onwards. Like that

19:08

Michigan data center in Saline, I don't

19:11

think we will be getting compute out of

19:12

it until probably end of 27 or early 28.

19:16

So, that's where you're starting to make

19:17

your bets. And in fact, where I feel

19:19

most short of compute right now is

19:21

starting to look at 30, 31, 32. So,

19:24

you're having to create a business

19:26

model. Now, the good news is each year

19:29

goes by, we get more confidence in the

19:31

build. We're seeing it massively

19:33

outperform. And so, that's giving us

19:35

more and more confidence. And the market

19:38

is coming towards us much more.

19:40

>> All right. So, how are you making the

19:42

compute needs forecast multiple years

19:45

out, accounting for all of the

19:48

architectural and model advancements

19:50

that are happening, where quality value

19:52

or utility per unit of power is going

19:56

up? And help us understand how you kind

19:59

of estimate that given that there's a

20:01

lot of technology development going on

20:03

that has a high kind of variance to it.

20:06

>> Yeah, yeah. So, we we do have to make

20:08

multiple

20:09

assumptions both on the compute itself.

20:12

So, we assume right now that compute it

20:14

actually on a per gigawatt is getting

20:16

more expensive cuz power is getting more

20:17

expensive, memory is getting more

20:18

expensive, and so on. However, the the

20:22

intelligence that we get on the other

20:23

side out because of the deprecation on

20:26

the chip side is is more than making up

20:29

for that. So, in a terms of a per unit

20:31

sold to a customer, it should actually

20:33

get a lot less expensive.

20:34

>> improvement in that. So, that's just

20:37

>> Yeah, exactly. That's just the chip

20:38

itself. We don't want to overestimate on

20:41

the model side cuz sometimes like 5.5 is

20:43

an incredibly good model on the

20:45

efficiency side. But if you look at

20:47

something like 5.4, the prior model, it

20:50

was a really large pre-trained model. It

20:51

was very expensive. It was actually hard

20:53

to serve. And sometimes we want to do

20:55

that really big pre-trained moment. And

20:58

then we take multiple model turns to be

21:01

able to kind of drive down on the cost

21:02

side. I mean, in the in the near term,

21:05

like in 26 and 27, I clearly build a

21:08

model that's bottom-up. So, I know what

21:11

my products are, I have a sense of what

21:13

the pricing will be.

21:15

You know, P times you know, consumer P

21:17

times Q, how many wilds do I think I

21:19

have? I can see what the shape of the

21:20

line is. How many of them will

21:22

subscribe? Advertising coming in is also

21:25

still related to how many weekly

21:27

actives, how many dailies, how many

21:29

messages, and so on. So, you can you can

21:31

do actually a pretty good model job in

21:34

26 and 27. That said, the shape of the

21:37

line keeps taking us by surprise to the

21:39

upside. When you get into the outer

21:41

years, you're actually looking more at

21:42

the compute you've bought and almost

21:44

just doing an algorithm the other way

21:46

that's saying this amount of compute

21:48

should equate somewhat this amount of

21:50

revenue. I don't know for certain

21:52

exactly where it will all come from.

21:53

Like a year ago, I built a model for

21:55

investors that showed a gentic revenue.

21:58

And the story was, we're going to have

22:01

this thing, we're going to be in the

22:02

agentic era, we're going to hand it to a

22:04

developer with natural language. They're

22:07

going to be able to build and we think

22:09

they will pay upwards of maybe $2,000 a

22:13

month for it, which is kind of laughable

22:15

in hindsight. But nobody believed. They

22:18

were like, I don't even know what she's

22:19

talking about. There's no way that will

22:20

happen. And $2,000 a month? Remember

22:23

when people were losing their minds over

22:25

chat GPT Pro being at $200? Like, oh my

22:28

god, nobody will ever pay for that.

22:30

Yeah.

22:30

>> So, why 122 billion? Does it take you to

22:32

2031, 2032? Like, how do you get the

22:35

calculus on the capital needs as you do

22:37

that modeling?

22:38

>> Right. And you're maybe even more

22:39

specific. So, the estimates I've seen is

22:42

that to stand up 1 gigawatt of AI

22:45

compute costs about $50

22:48

in capital. Land, power, shell, chips,

22:50

everything. All in around 50 billion.

22:54

Do you have to front all of that money

22:56

when you create a new data center? Or

22:59

how much of it do you do? How much of it

23:00

can you get debt for? Does a 100 billion

23:04

raise only get you 2 gigawatts or does

23:06

it get you 5? Like, what does it get

23:08

you?

23:08

>> It's It's a great question. So, if you

23:10

look at our compute strategy,

23:12

um and it's crazy how fast the world has

23:14

changed. So, just 2 years ago, we were

23:17

literally one. We had one CSP we worked

23:19

with, Microsoft Azure. Um we we sat on

23:22

one chip, Nvidia. We had one product,

23:25

ChatGPT. One price point, $20 a month.

23:28

So, I often use a Rubik's Cube as kind

23:30

of my metaphor. So, we were like one

23:32

cube in the bottom. Today, if you look

23:34

at our strategy, it's being to go, first

23:36

of all, multi multiple CSPs. Because

23:39

what CSPs do for us, in effect, is they

23:41

shift capex into opex. So, you pay as

23:44

you get the revenue, so as you're

23:45

actually utilizing the data centers. So,

23:48

in effect, we are riding somewhat on

23:49

their ability to build and have capex

23:52

and um financing. So, today, we sit on

23:54

top of every CSP, Oracle, um

23:58

CoreWeave, um Microsoft, GCP, AWS, and a

24:01

bunch of small neoscalers.

24:03

On the chip side, we've also um gone for

24:06

a program of being multi-chip. Um cuz we

24:09

want to make sure you're always on the

24:10

frontier. I think if you're only on one

24:12

chip, there's just inherently a moment

24:14

where you can't be on the frontier

24:15

because there's some leapfrogging that

24:17

happens. So, today, Nvidia remains our

24:20

absolute priority partner. They have the

24:22

frontier chip. Our next big trading run

24:24

in the fall will be done on Vera Rubins.

24:26

We're really excited about that. And now

24:28

we're plotting kind of the Simon series

24:30

that's coming. But, we also now have

24:32

chips in the pipeline from AMD. Um

24:35

Cerebras is already online. It's been an

24:37

incredible low-latency chip, great for

24:39

devs, for example, that want real-time

24:41

coding. And there's our own chip that

24:43

we're working on with Broadcom. And

24:45

then, beyond that, there's other ways

24:46

we've diversified. So, now think about

24:48

that Rubik's Cube. It's become much more

24:50

multi-dimensional. And it allows us to

24:53

effectively utilize investment-grade

24:56

CSPs in order to be able to go fast and

24:59

push it back to be more opex not capex.

25:02

Now, we are starting to shift gears into

25:05

more of a built-to-suit type

25:06

environment. We announced a data center

25:09

we're building

25:10

with SoftBank Energy um down in Texas.

25:13

That's the beginning of something that's

25:14

beyond a CSP. There's a little bit more

25:16

capex required there. And then finally,

25:19

I think as the world progresses,

25:21

remember we've done all that just in 2

25:22

years. The reason I like a Rubik's Cube

25:24

is again, please chat GPT this, but I

25:26

think a Rubik's Cube has something like

25:28

a quintillion different um forms it can

25:31

come up with. And so it just gives us a

25:33

lot of optionality. So remember what I

25:35

said, my job is maximum optionality. And

25:39

in a moment where I'm not yet an

25:40

investment-grade type of entity where I

25:43

can go get lower cost debt financing,

25:45

being able to work with partners to do

25:47

that is really important.

25:48

>> think that in 5 years from now the stack

25:51

is just merged together? What do I mean?

25:54

In traditional or historical markets,

25:56

you'd have Nvidia sell the chips, but

25:58

that's all they do. And then you'd have,

26:00

you know, Microsoft just run a cloud.

26:02

That's all they would do. And then you

26:03

would have a consumer app. That's all

26:05

you would do. But now we see everybody

26:07

doing everything. You know, you guys

26:09

have silicon that you're spinning. You

26:11

have models that you make.

26:13

You may or may not eventually decide

26:14

that you need to be some form of a neo

26:16

cloud yourself. If you look at Nvidia,

26:18

they have incredible silicon, but they

26:20

also have their own open-source models.

26:22

They're increasingly becoming an

26:23

off-taker.

26:24

Google is a cloud company first, but

26:26

they also have a chip. Now they have

26:28

models. So it's all

26:30

merging.

26:32

Is if that continues to happen, does

26:33

that make

26:35

the competitive landscape simpler or

26:36

easier?

26:38

>> I mean, I think where everyone is trying

26:39

to make sure they reside is the layer

26:42

that is closest to the customer where

26:45

usually you take the the largest portion

26:48

of the profits of the ecosystem, right?

26:50

No one wants to find themselves trapped

26:53

away.

26:54

>> Absolutely. And so, that's why today,

26:57

when I think about our positioning,

26:59

comes back to where I started, why we

27:01

want to be that AI intelligence layer,

27:04

is because a year ago people talked

27:07

about the commoditization of the LLMs.

27:10

Um and frankly, it's gone the opposite

27:12

because as you start building an agentic

27:14

layer, and we all started use this word

27:16

harness, but the harness is what brings

27:19

the context, the memory, right? It I

27:22

have in my Codex, I have a whole

27:25

ginormous memory file where it knows

27:28

that I'm me. It knows I'm the CFO of

27:30

OpenAI. It knows how I like to write

27:32

things, well, how I like to say things.

27:34

It knows what I'm interested in. It

27:36

actually also knows that I'm a mom

27:38

teenagers. I mean, it just carries all

27:40

this memory.

27:41

And that makes the model more powerful

27:43

for me. Now, think about what happens

27:45

when that memory and that context is

27:47

brought into an actual enterprise

27:49

environment. So, now it's not just even

27:52

about the data that resides there, but I

27:54

always think about the the intuition of

27:56

like back when I worked on Wall Street,

27:58

right? There was all the data in the

27:59

world that told you what a stock should

28:02

do post an earnings call.

28:04

But, give me 1 second.

28:06

Then you called your trader. And the

28:08

trader would be like, "Yeah, stock's not

28:10

going up, Sarah." Now, I'm like, "What

28:11

are you talking about? Like all the

28:12

numbers say it did this, did this, did

28:14

this." And he's like, "Yeah, no, but I

28:16

know this fund is under pressure and

28:18

they need to sell down their book and

28:20

that is going to kill the stock for the

28:22

next week." Right? That is the intuition

28:25

of an enterprise. Like it's the best

28:27

example I always think of cuz I came out

28:29

of a financing world, but there's this

28:31

intuition in every walk of life. And

28:34

that's where I think the models are now

28:35

getting very connected to the memory and

28:38

context and intuition of your company.

28:41

And that's what gets CEOs and C-suite

28:43

really excited cuz they're like, "Okay,

28:46

now I really see how this is going to

28:47

add value to drive my revenue line, my

28:49

top line, but also, you know, I can

28:52

think about it as an efficiency play as

28:54

well." And so, back to what you're

28:55

asking, I think what people want to make

28:57

sure is they stay as close to that value

28:59

as possible.

29:00

>> And be flexible enough to pivot as you

29:03

continue to wrap.

29:04

>> But

29:04

>> Sorry, Jason.

29:05

>> It's quite all right. Um

29:07

been wonderful, and and you've been so

29:09

great with the details. One final detail

29:11

question, rapid-fire. Three great

29:13

greatest consumer businesses of our

29:15

lifetime, iPhone, Meta

29:18

advertising network, and Google's

29:19

advertising network. Two of those three

29:21

are ad-based, and and even Apple has a

29:22

sprinkling of that. It's

29:24

Haven't heard you talk about ads much.

29:26

People tell me they're seeing some ads

29:27

in the experiment in the free version.

29:30

What is your commitment to the ad

29:31

version? You guys got a little

29:34

uh trolled by Anthropic during the Super

29:36

Bowl. Oh, you're going to have ads. But

29:38

is ads the solution to making this free

29:41

for the world?

29:42

>> Yeah. So, first of all, on the ad front,

29:45

you know, we want to stick by our

29:46

principles. We want to make sure that

29:48

you know you're always getting the best

29:49

result based on the model, not by

29:52

something that was sponsored. So, that

29:53

has to hold true. And I think the second

29:55

thing is that we'll always provide a

29:57

free a tier, sorry, an ad-free tier for

30:00

people that just don't want ads. But

30:02

>> If they pay.

30:04

>> If you took If you took what I Fiji says

30:07

this really well. If, you know, Google

30:09

and Meta had a baby, it would be

30:11

ChatGPT. Cuz what you have in Google

30:13

Search, and by the way, we know we have

30:15

at least 11% of the search market. It's

30:18

a lot more because actually, when you do

30:20

a Google search and the page refreshes,

30:22

that counts as one. In ChatGPT, when you

30:25

do a whole conversation where you might

30:26

ask 50 questions, that also only counts

30:28

as one. So, in reality, we have a much

30:30

higher portion. Very high intent. That

30:33

is great for advertisers because I'm

30:34

effectively telling you what I'm doing,

30:36

right? I want really cool shoes to sit

30:39

on the stage. I'm telling you what I

30:41

want to go buy. In Meta's case, right,

30:43

they use this like people like you sort

30:46

of intent, so they have the demographic.

30:48

We have more than that cuz we have

30:49

memory, right? I just told you it knows

30:51

who I am. So, imagine putting memory and

30:54

context next to intent, you should have

30:56

a very potent ad platform, which gives

30:59

you an ability to offer up massive

31:02

access to the world writ large because

31:05

now you can pay for it. And I think back

31:07

to a question you asked Freeberg, like

31:09

if you look at them the revenue per

31:11

token right now. If I was optimizing

31:14

only for today, I would give every token

31:16

to the API.

31:17

>> Right.

31:18

>> Every token to the API. Order of

31:20

magnitude more than to the consumer.

31:22

However, I told you we're playing our

31:24

own game. We have a strategy where we

31:26

believe there's an AI infrastructure

31:27

layer utility like electricity, and in a

31:30

future state, you'll want to be able to

31:33

serve the world writ large, consumers,

31:35

small businesses, large enterprises,

31:37

governments. That's our strategy.

31:39

>> Ladies and gentlemen, the CFO of Open

31:41

AI, Sarah Friar.

31:42

>> Well done.

31:42

>> Fabulous. [music]

31:52

>> [music]

32:00

[music]

Interactive Summary

Sarah Friar, the CFO of OpenAI, discusses the company's historic fundraising and their strategic focus on creating 'maximum optionality' as they build out critical AI infrastructure. She emphasizes the importance of building durable, long-term enterprise value through a diversified strategy that includes consumer access, while navigating the challenges of scarce compute resources and power demands. Friar also touches on the future of AI interfaces and the company's commitment to delivering AGI for the benefit of all humanity.

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