especially if there's no retirement plan

for Putin no well one of the things

that's interesting from your book

there's things that are seen by one side

as we are detering the other side often

seen as the other side as a provocation

where the embargos from the US are seen

as Japan as a deadline to attack people

who are less sympathetic to the

Ukrainian cause I've said extending NATO

which we thought would be deterrence is

that was actually a provocation for

Putin um first of all I think you should

look at the people living in the

countries in question so before we

decide that we're the important people

in the world Americans or we're in

Britain now or Britains and therefore

anyone in between doesn't count I

believe that's wrong so all of the

countries that joined NATO desperately

wanted to join NATO right and they've

had a whole history of Russians doing

terrible things to them I'm not making

it up it's this is what Russia's been up

to they have been correct that Russia is

going to do more terrible things they

were correct doing everything they could

to get into NATO it's incredible in my

lifetime I'm remembering what the

standards of living of people in Eastern

Europe that the Soviet Union had

dominated and what it is now since they

have uh been freed of Soviet domination

it's been massive compounding of

standards of living it's allowed people

your age to travel the world have

allowed to have aspirations in their

lives right there's no podcasting Yeah

well yeah but if if when you talk about

oh should we deny these things because

we got some egos in Russia that want to

maintain a continental Empire I cannot

or you cannot change how Russians think

about things right the Russians have to

how they think about the the things

that's their decision but um if you look

at Europe as a peninsula uh you're

better off with more insulation from

Russia than not but isn't this another

case of that not thinking in terms of

both half of the court in tennis where

compared to the possibility of nuclear

war Ju Just nudging that a number up and

down matters far more than whether

another uh country in Eastern Europe

gets to be part of NATO or not well I

think what what what was hoped and it uh

hope is has has been said not to be a

strategy The Hope was that trying to get

Russia to join the party so trying to um

integrate their energy supplies into

Europe paying them good money for it

have them make lots of money on that

hoping that they would invest this into

their Road system which is lamentable

and hoping that they would invest this

to cleaning out their business laws

which are uh it's horrendous trying to

run a business there as you watch right

now as different things get nationalized

and taken over and different Business

Leaders who are successful wind up

unaccountably dropping out of six floor

windows and things or old people always

seem to fall downstairs I think that's a

a special way of of offing people that

was the hope is join the party because

you will become wealthy too Russian

standards of living have been stagnating

for quite a while that Putin's model of

the uh basically taking over your

neighbor stuff and then whatever you

have a bomb flat bringing home is it's

not an efficient way to make wealth and

you're killing so many people so

uh I don't believe that we in the west

have

this denying people of Eastern

Europe uh saying well actually because

the Russians have such an attitude you

get to be their surfs forever or I guess

it's not about uh not that it's just but

there are broader considerations for the

same reason that you might were talking

about earlier that would not have made

sense for Americans would have not been

plausible that we would have kept

fighting further to prevent uh the

Eastern Europe at the time from

succumbing to the Red Army the

ukrainians are doing the fighting right

now supplied by tremendous amounts of

Western Aid yeah they are but that's

Pennies on the dollar it's they're

willing to to fight for their country

it's not about the cost to the United

it's not like the 40 billion or whatever

it's be how does this the nuclear war

prob well what's the nuclear war going

to do

Putin the Ukrainian forces are just spur

what's the target it's going to be keev

I suppose or I don't know he thinks that

he's out of options so let's go bomb

NATO headquarters or something I think

the Chinese have whispered in his ear

and this is pure speculation is Buddy if

you do this everybody in the on the

planet's going to get nuclear weapons

and all of a sudden we aren't going to

have this little small Club of people

with nuclear weapons and the

consequences going to be rather

horrendous and also look at China it has

more nuclear armed neighbors than anyone

on the planet and some of them are

totally

nuts Putin himself right Pakistan I

would think oh well let's try North

Korea for the a country has got

starvation in the 21st century how did

you do it although on this point another

thing your books have emphasized is how

often leaders make mistakes that make no

strategic make very little strategic

sense and are very stupid you could

imagine even though it would be very

stupid for Putin to escalate especially

if he personally is uh going to be you

know there's no retirement plan I could

imagine him doing very stupid things uh

well let's let's put stupid out of it

because it's not explanatory by saying

well someone's stupid because it means

you write off understanding their

reasoning so a lot of westerners when

they think of governments think about

governments operating the interest of

their population so when their decisions

don't improve standards of living

security and things then we say those

aren't good decisions all right but

that's not the game in China for

instance it's all about maintaining the

Monopoly of the Chinese Communist party

to rule and if that conflicts with

having higher living standards you

better believe they're choosing

Communist party so you're watching those

kind of decisions going on right now

where their most talented entrepreneurs

are being uh relieved of their

Enterprises or Putin as you said he's

made a pivotal error he has no backdown

plan he only has a double down plan

expect him to Double Down forever and uh

the then the question is whether all the

oligarchs want to keep doubling down

with him and his generals or whether

they I don't know give them something

extra in his cheero some morning who

knows so I feel like this is one of the

lessons you were actually talking about

earlier where you don't want somebody to

feel like they're up against the wall

where even if it would be an unjust sort

of resolution some sort of ceasefire or

Putin can stve face I wonder if your

sort of historical lessons would would

bring you to that conclusion oh and

Putin um he will be back for more and

understand that that's just the case but

but then what is the solution we can't

have unconditional surrender unless no

no no one's marching on Moscow right um

the United States has done this for many

years as you don't recognize the

territories that he's taken which means

the Russians are stuck with a sanction

regime of some type forever and you go

oh well that'll weaken certain people

won't adhere to it it will depress

Russian growth forever which goes back

to an earlier part of this conversation

of its really powerful and it was some

Russians who themselves when at the very

beginning so said oh no we are going to

be like North Korea yeah you will be

that's exactly where he's heading them

uh we don't control when the Russians

reassess we can't even predict when or

whether they'll re reassess we can't

predict whether there'll be some kind of

incipient Civil War in Russia right

which would be well destabilizing by

definition who knows how that who knows

how that goes one of the things you

asked me in an email about is whether

Superior finances wins Wars or something

it's Superior Alliance systems that win

Wars and it's interesting that the

Europeans particularly the Eastern

Europeans are the leaders of all this

and isn't it fascinating that the fins

and the swedes who forever were neutral

are now all over this um and they know

so um what is it the enemy gets a vote

the Russians have a vote as long as the

Russians are playing this game our best

bet is to support ukrainians because

unlike Iraq and Afghanistan where the

locals did not do the bulk of the

fighting this is when the locals are and

that's key on whe on whether uh you also

were emailing me and asking me about

successful versus unsuccessful

interventions when the locals do all the

fighting that's when your best starts

are of helping them yeah