The AI Safety Expert: These Are The Only 5 Jobs That Will Remain In 2030! - Dr. Roman Yampolskiy
2524 segments
You've been working on AI safety for two
decades at least.
>> Yeah. I was convinced we can make safe
AI, but the more I looked at it, the
more I realized is not something we can
actually do. You have made a series of
predictions about variety of different
dates. So, what is your prediction for
2027?
Dr. Roman Yampolskiy is a globally
recognized voice on AI safety and
associate professor of computer science.
He educates people on the terrifying
truth of AI
>> and what we need to do to save humanity.
In 2 years, the capability to replace
most humans in most occupations will
come very quickly. And then in 5 years,
we're looking at a world where we have
levels of unemployment we've never seen
before. Not talking about 10% but 99%.
And that's without super intelligence, a
system smarter than all humans in all
domains. So, it would be better than us
at making new AI. But it's worse than
that. We don't know how to make them
safe. And yet we still have the smartest
people in the world competing to win the
race to super intelligence. But what do
you make of people like Sam Altman's
journey with AI? So, a decade ago, we
published guardrails for how to do AI
right. They violated every single one.
And he's gambling 8 billion lives on
getting richer and more powerful. So, I
guess some people want to go to Mars.
Others want to control the universe.
But it doesn't matter who builds it. The
moment you switch to super intelligence,
we will most likely regret it terribly.
And then by 2045?
Now, this is where it gets interesting.
Dr. Roman Yampolskiy, let's talk about
simulation theory. I think we are in
one. And there is a lot of agreement on
this. And this is what you should be
doing in it so they don't shut it down.
First,
I see messages all the time in the
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thank you so much because in a strange
way you are you're part of our history
and you're on this journey with us and I
appreciate you for that. So, yeah, thank
you.
Dr. Roman Yampolskiy.
What is the mission that you're
currently on? Cuz it's quite clear to me
that you are on a bit of a mission and
you've been on this mission for, I
think, the best part of two decades at
least.
I'm hoping to make sure that super
intelligence we are creating right now
does not kill everyone.
Give me some Give me some context on
that statement cuz it's quite a shocking
statement.
Sure. So, the last decade, we actually
figured out how to make artificial
intelligence better.
Turns out if you add more compute, more
data,
it just kind of becomes smarter.
And so now, smartest people in the
world, billions of dollars, all going to
create the best possible super
intelligence we can.
Unfortunately, while we know how to make
the systems much more capable,
we don't know how to make them safe.
How to
make sure they don't do something we
will regret.
And that's the state of the art right
now. When we look at
just prediction markets, how soon will
we get to advanced AI?
The timelines are very short, couple
years.
Two, three years according to prediction
markets, according to CEOs of top labs.
And at the same time,
we don't know how to make sure that the
systems are aligned with our
preferences.
So, we are creating this alien
intelligence.
If aliens were coming to Earth and
you had 3 years to prepare,
you would be panicking right now.
But most people don't don't even realize
this is happening.
So, some of the counterarguments might
be, well, these are very, very smart
people. These are very big companies
with lots of money. They have a
obligation and a moral obligation but
also just
a legal obligation to make sure they do
no harm. So, I'm sure it'll be fine. The
only obligation they have is to make
money for their investors. That's the
legal obligation they have. They have no
moral or ethical obligations. Also,
according to them, they don't know how
to do it yet. The state-of-the-art
answers are, we'll figure it out when we
get there or AI will help us control
more advanced AI.
That's insane.
In terms of probability, what do you
think is the probability that something
goes catastrophically wrong?
So, nobody can tell you for sure what's
going to happen. But if you're not in
charge, you're not controlling it, you
will not get outcomes you want. The
space of possibilities is almost
infinite. The space of outcomes we will
like is tiny.
And
who are you and how long have you been
working on this?
I'm a computer scientist by training. I
have a PhD in computer science and
engineering.
I probably started work in AI safety,
mildly defined as control of bots at the
time,
15 years ago.
15 years ago. So, you've been working on
AI safety before it was cool. Before the
term existed. I coined the term AI
safety. So, you're the founder of the
term AI safety? The term, yes, not the
field. There are other people who did
brilliant work before I got there.
Why were you thinking about this 15
years ago? Because most people have only
been talking about the term AI safety
for the last two or three years. Yeah,
it started very mildly just as a
security project. I was looking at poker
bots.
And I realized that the bots are getting
better and better.
And if you just project this forward
enough,
they're going to get better than us,
smarter, more capable. And it happened.
They are playing poker way better than
average players.
But
more generally, it will happen with all
other domains, all the other cyber
resources.
I wanted to make sure AI is a technology
which is beneficial for everyone. So, I
started work on making AI safer.
Was there a particular moment in your
career where you thought,
"Oh my god."?
First 5 years at least, I was working on
solving this problem. I was convinced we
can make happen, we can make safe AI.
That was the goal. But the more I looked
at it, the more I realized every single
component of that equation is not
something we can actually do.
And the more you zoom in, it's like a
fractal. You go in and you find 10 more
problems and then 100 more problems. And
all of them are not just difficult,
they're impossible to solve. There is no
seminal work in this field where like,
we solved this. We don't have to worry
about this. There are patches. There are
little fixes we put in place and quickly
people find ways to work around them.
They jailbreak whatever safety
mechanisms we have. So, while progress
in
AI capabilities is exponential or maybe
even hyper exponential,
progress in AI safety is linear or
constant.
The gap is increasing.
The gap between
the the how capable the systems are and
how well we can control them, predict
what they're going to do, explain their
decision-making.
I think this is quite an important point
because you said that we're basically
patching over the issues that we find.
So, we're developing this this core
intelligence and then to stop it doing
things
or to stop it showing some of its
unpredictability or its threats,
the companies that are developing this
AI are programming in code over the top
to say, "Okay, don't swear. Don't say
that rude word. Don't do that bad
thing." Exactly. And you can look at
other examples of that. So, HR manuals,
right? We have those humans, they're
general intelligences, but you want them
to behave in a company. So, they have a
policy. No sexual harassment. No this,
no that. But if you're smart enough, you
always find a workaround. So, you're
just pushing behavior into a different,
not yet restricted subdomain.
We We should probably define some terms
here.
So, there's narrow intelligence which
can play chess or whatever. There's
artificial general intelligence which
can operate across domains. And then
super intelligence which is smarter than
all humans in all domains.
And where are we?
So, that's a very fuzzy boundary, right?
We definitely have many excellent narrow
systems, no question about it. And they
are super intelligent in that narrow
domain. So,
protein folding is a problem which was
solved using narrow AI and it's superior
to all humans in that domain.
In terms of AGI, again I said, if we
showed what we have today to a scientist
from 20 years ago, they would be
convinced we have full-blown AGI. We
have systems which can learn. They can
perform in hundreds of domains and
they're better than human in many of
them.
So, you can argue we have a weak version
of AGI.
Now, we don't have super intelligence
yet. We still have brilliant humans who
are completely dominating AI, especially
in science and engineering.
But that gap is closing so fast. You can
see
especially in the domain of mathematics.
3 years ago,
large language models couldn't do basic
algebra.
Multiplying three-digit numbers was a
challenge. Now, they're helping with
mathematical proofs. They're winning
mathematics Olympiads, competitions.
They're working on solving millennial
problems, hardest problems in
mathematics. So, in 3 years, we closed
the gap from subhuman performance to
better than most mathematicians in the
world. And we see the same process
happening in science and engineering.
You have made a series of predictions
and they correspond to a variety of
different dates and I have those dates
in front of me here.
What is your prediction for the year
2027?
We're probably looking at AGI as
predicted by prediction markets and tops
of the labs.
So we'd have artificial general
intelligence by 2027.
And how would that make the world
different
to how it is now?
So if you have this concept of a drop-in
you have free labor, physical and
cognitive, trillions of dollars of it.
It makes no sense to hire humans for
most jobs.
If I can just get, you know, a $20
subscription or free model to do what an
employee does,
first, anything on a computer will be
automated.
And next thing, humanoid robots are
maybe 5 years behind, so in 5 years all
the physical labor can also be
automated.
So we're looking at a world where we
have levels of unemployment we've never
seen before. Not talking about 10%
unemployment, which is scary, but 99%.
All you have left is jobs where, for
whatever reason, you prefer another
human would do it for you.
But anything else
can be fully automated. It doesn't mean
it will be automated in practice. A lot
of times
technology exists, but it's not
deployed. Video phones were invented in
the '70s. Nobody had them until iPhones
came around.
So we may have a lot more time with jobs
and with world which looks like this.
But capability
to replace most humans in most
occupations will come very quickly.
Okay, so let's try and drill down into
that and and stress test it.
So
a podcaster like me,
would you need a podcaster like me?
So let's look at what you do. You
prepare, you
ask questions, you ask follow-up
questions, and you look good on camera.
Thank you so much. Let's see what we can
do. Large language model today can
easily read everything I wrote Yeah. and
have very solid understanding. Better, I
assume you haven't read every single one
of my books. I haven't. Yeah. That thing
would do it.
It can train on every podcast you ever
did, so it knows exactly your style, the
types of questions you ask. It can also
find correspondence between what worked
really well, like this type of question
really increased viewers, this type of
topic was very promising, so it can
optimize, I think, better than you can
because you don't have a data set.
Of course, visual simulation is trivial
at this point. So it can you can make a
video within seconds of me sat here and
So we can generate videos of you
interviewing anyone on any topic very
efficiently and you just have to get
likeness approval, whatever.
Are there many jobs that you think would
remain in a world of AGI? If you're
saying AGI is potentially going to be
here, whether it's deployed or not, by
2027,
what kind and then okay, so let's take
out of this any physical labor jobs for
a second. Are there any jobs that you
think a human would be able to do better
in a world of AGI
still? So that's the question I often
ask people. In the world with AGI, and I
think almost immediately we'll get
superintelligence as a side effect. So
the question really is, in a world of
superintelligence, which is defined as
better than all humans in all domains,
what can you contribute?
And so you know better than anyone what
it's like to be you.
You know what ice cream tastes to you.
Can you get paid for that knowledge? Is
someone interested in that?
Maybe not, not a big market.
There are jobs where you want a human.
Maybe you're rich and you want a human
accountant for whatever historic
reasons.
Old people like
traditional ways of doing things. Warren
Buffett would not switch to AI. He would
use his human accountant.
But it's a tiny subset of a market.
Today we have products which are
man-made
in US as opposed to mass-produced in
China, and some people pay more to have
those.
But it's a small subset. It's a almost a
fetish.
There is no practical reason for it.
And I think anything you can do on a
computer could be automated
using that technology.
You must hear a lot of rebuttals to when
this when you say it because people
experience a huge amount of mental
discomfort when they hear
that their job, their career, the thing
they got a degree in, the thing they
invested $100,000 into is going to be
taken away from them. So their natural
reaction, some for some people is that
cognitive dissonance that no, you're
wrong. AI can't be creative. It's not
this, it's not that. It will never be
interested in my job. I'll be fine
because
you hear these arguments all the time,
right?
>> It's really funny. I ask people and I
ask people in different occupations.
I'll ask my Uber driver, are you worried
about self-driving cars? And they go,
"No. No one can do what I do. I know the
streets of New York. I can navigate like
no AI.
I'm safe." And it's true for any job.
Professors are saying this to me. Oh,
nobody can lecture like I do. Like this
is so special.
But you understand it's ridiculous. We
already have self-driving cars replacing
drivers.
That is not even a question
if it's possible. It's like how soon
before you're fired.
Yeah, I mean, I've just been in LA
yesterday and my car drives itself. So I
get in the car, I set I put in where I
want to go, and then I don't touch the
steering wheel or the brake pedals, and
it takes me from A to B, even if it's an
hour-long drive without any intervention
at all. I actually still park it,
but other than that, I'm not I'm not
driving the car at all. And then
obviously in LA we also have Waymo now,
which means
you order it on your phone and it shows
up with no driver in it and takes you to
where you want to go. Oh, yeah. So it's
quite clear to see how that is
potentially a matter of time. For those
people, cuz we do have some of those
people listening to this conversation
right now, that their occupation is
driving,
to offer them a I think driving is the
biggest oc-
occupation in the world, if I'm correct.
I I'm pretty sure it is the biggest
occupation in the world.
>> of the top ones, yeah.
What would you say to those people?
What what should they be doing with
their lives? What should they should
they be retraining in something or
what time frame? So that's the paradigm
shift here. Before we always said this
job is going to be automated, retrain to
do this other job. But if I'm telling
you that all jobs will be automated,
then there is no plan B.
You cannot retrain.
Look at computer science.
2 years ago, we told people, learn to
code. Mhm. You are an artist, you cannot
make money, learn to code.
Then we realized, oh, AI kind of knows
how to code and getting better. Become a
prompt engineer.
You can engineer prompts for AIs. It's
going to be a great job. Get a 4-year
degree in it. But then we're like, AI is
way better at designing prompts for
other AIs than any human.
So that's gone. So I can't really tell
you right now, the hottest thing is
design AI agents for practical
applications. I guarantee you in a year
or two it's going to be gone just as
well.
So I don't think there is a
this occupation needs to learn to do
this instead. I think it's more like,
where's the humanity when we all lose
our jobs? What do we do? What do we do
financially?
Who's paying for us?
And what do we do in terms of
meaning? What do I do with my extra 60,
80 hours a week?
You've thought around this corner,
haven't you?
A little bit.
What is around that corner in your view?
So the economic part seems easy. If you
create a lot of free labor, you have a
lot of free wealth, abundance, things
which are right now
not very affordable become dirt cheap,
and so you can provide for everyone's
basic needs. Some people say you can
provide
beyond basic needs. You can provide very
good existence for everyone. The hard
problem
what do you do with all that free time?
For a lot of people, their jobs are what
gives them meaning in their lives, so
they would
retire or do early retirement. And for
so many people who hate their jobs,
they'll be very happy not working. But
now you have people who are chilling all
day.
What happens to society? How does that
impact crime rate, pregnancy rate, all
sorts of issues?
Nobody thinks about. Governments don't
have programs prepared to deal with 99%
unemployment.
What do you think that world looks like?
Again, I I think
>> you going to be doing? very important
part to understand here is the
unpredictability of it.
We cannot predict what a smarter than us
system will do.
And the point when we get to that is
often called singularity, by analogy
with physical singularity. You cannot
see beyond the event horizon. I can tell
you what I think might happen, but
that's my prediction. It is not what
actually is going to happen because I
just don't have cognitive ability to
predict a much smarter agent impacting
this world.
When you read science fiction,
there is never a superintelligence in it
actually doing anything because nobody
can write believable science fiction at
that level. They either banned AI, like
Dune, because this way you can avoid
writing about it, or it's like Star
Wars. You have this really dumb bots,
but not nothing superintelligent ever.
Cuz by definition, you cannot predict at
that level.
Because by definition of it being
superintelligent, it will make its own
mind up. By definition, if it was
something you could predict, you would
be operating at the same level of
intelligence, violating our assumption
that it is smarter than you.
If I'm playing chess with super
intelligence and I can predict every
move, I'm playing at that level. It's
kind of like my French bulldog trying to
predict
exactly what I'm thinking and what I'm
going to do. That's a good cognitive
gap. And it's not just he can predict
you going to work, you coming back, but
he cannot understand why you doing a
podcast. That is something completely
outside of his model of the world.
Yeah, he doesn't even know that I go to
work. He just sees that I leave the
house and doesn't know where I go.
By food for him. What's the most
persuasive argument against
your own perspective here? That we will
not have unemployment due to advanced
technology?
That there won't be this
French bulldog human gap in
understanding and
I guess like power and control.
So, some people think that we can
enhance human minds either through
combination with hardware, so something
like Neuralink, or through genetic
engineering to where we make smarter
humans.
Yeah. It may give us a little more
intelligence. I don't think we are still
competitive in biological form with
silicon form. Silicon substrate is much
more capable for intelligence. It's
faster. It's more resilient, more energy
efficient in many ways. Which is what
computers are made out of the brain.
Yeah.
So, I don't think we can keep up just
with improving our biology. Some people
think maybe, and this is very
speculative, we can upload our minds
into computers.
So, scan your brain, connectome of your
brain, and have a simulation running on
a computer and you can speed it up, give
it more capabilities. But to me, that
feels like you no longer exist. We just
created software by different means and
now you have AI based on biology and AI
based on some other forms of training.
You can have evolutionary algorithms.
You can have many paths to reach AGI.
But at the end, none of them are humans.
I have a another date here, which is
2030.
What's your prediction for 2030? What
will the world look like?
So, we probably will have
humanoid robots with enough flexibility,
dexterity to compete with humans in all
domains, including plumbers.
We can make artificial plumbers.
Not the plumbers. We That was That felt
like the last
bastion of
human employment. So, 2030, 5 years from
now, humanoid robots So, many of the
companies, the leading companies,
including Tesla, are developing humanoid
robots
at light speed and they're getting
increasingly more effective. And these
humanoid robots will be able to move
through physical space,
for you know, make an omelet,
do anything humans can do, but obviously
have
be connected to AI as well.
So, they can think, talk,
Like they're controlled by AI. They're
always connected to the network, so they
are already dominating in many ways.
Our world will look remarkably different
when humanoid robots are functional and
effective. Because that's really when,
you know, I start to think, "Crap." Like
the combination of intelligence and
physical ability
is really really doesn't leave much,
does it, for
us um
human beings.
Not much. So, today, if you have
intelligence through internet, you can
hire humans to do your bidding for you.
You can pay them in Bitcoin, so you can
have bodies, just not directly
controlling them. So, it's not a huge
game changer to add direct control of
physical bodies. Intelligence is where
it's at. The important component is
definitely higher ability to optimize,
to solve problems, to find patterns
people cannot see.
And then by 2045,
I guess the world looks even even more
um
which is 20 years from now. So, if it's
still around, If it's still around,
>> Ray Kurzweil predicts that that's the
year for the singularity. That's the
year where progress becomes so fast, so
this AI doing science and engineering
work makes improvements so quickly we
cannot keep up anymore. That's the
definition of singularity, point beyond
which we cannot see, understand,
predict.
See, understand, predict the
intelligence itself or
What is happening in the world? The
technology is being developed. So, right
now, if I have an iPhone, I can look
forward to a new one coming out next
year and I'll understand it has slightly
better camera. Imagine now this process
of researching and developing this phone
is automated. It happens every 6 months,
every 3 every month, week, day, hour,
minute, second.
You cannot keep up with
30 iterations of iPhone in 1 day. You
don't understand what capabilities it
has,
what
proper controls are. It just escapes
you. Right now, it's hard for any
researcher in AI to keep up with the
state of the art. While I was doing this
interview with you, a new model came out
and I will no longer know what the state
of the art is.
Every day, as a percentage of total
knowledge, I get dumber.
I may still know more because I keep
reading, but as a percentage of overall
knowledge, we all getting dumber.
And when you take it to extreme values,
you have zero knowledge, zero
understanding of the world around you.
Some of the arguments against this
eventuality are that when you look at
other technologies like the Industrial
Revolution, people just found new ways
to
to work and new careers that we could
never have imagined at the time were
created.
How do you respond to that in a world of
super intelligence?
It's a paradigm shift. We always had
tools, new tools which allowed some job
to be done more efficiently. So, instead
of having 10 workers, you could have two
workers and eight workers had to find a
new job. And there was another job. Now
you can supervise these workers or do
something cool. If you creating a meta
invention, you inventing intelligence,
you inventing a worker, an agent, then
you can apply that agent to the new job.
There is not a job which cannot be
automated. That never happened before.
All the inventions we previously had
were kind of
a tool for doing something. So, we
invented fire. Huge game changer. But
that's it. It stops with fire. We invent
a wheel. Same idea. Huge implications,
but wheel itself is not an inventor.
Here we are inventing
a replacement for human mind, a new
inventor capable of doing new
inventions. It's the last invention we
ever have to make. At that point, it
takes over and the process of doing
science, research, even ethics research,
morals, all that is automated at that
point.
Do you sleep well at night? Really well.
Even though you you spent the last 15,
20 years of your life working on AI
safety and it's suddenly
among us in a in a way that I don't
think anyone could have predicted 5
years ago. When I say among us, I really
mean that the amount of funding and
talent that is now focused on reaching
super intelligence faster has made it
feel more inevitable and more
soon
than any of us could have possibly
imagined.
We as humans have this built-in bias
about not thinking about really bad
outcomes and things we cannot prevent.
So, all of us are dying.
Your kids are dying, your parents are
dying, everyone's dying, but you still
sleep well, you still go on with your
day. Even 95-year-olds are still doing
games and playing golf and whatnot, cuz
we have this ability to not think about
the worst outcomes, especially if we
cannot actually modify the outcome. So,
that's the same
infrastructure being used for this.
Yeah, there is
humanity level
death-like event. We happening to be
close to it probably, but unless I can
do something about it, I I can just keep
enjoying my life. In fact, maybe knowing
that you have limited amount of time
left gives you more reason to have a
better life. You cannot waste any.
And that's the survival trait of
evolution, I guess, because those of my
ancestors that spent all their time
worrying
wouldn't have spent enough time having
babies and hunting to survive.
>> Suicidal ideation. People who really
start thinking about how horrible the
world is usually escape pretty soon.
Mhm.
One of the You co-authored this paper
um analyzing the key arguments people
make against the importance of AI
safety.
And one of the arguments in there is
that there's other things that are of
bigger importance right now. It might be
world wars, it could be nuclear
containment, it could be other things.
There's other things that the
governments and podcasters like me
should be talking about that are more
important. What's your rebuttal to that
argument?
>> So, super intelligence is a meta
solution. If we get super intelligence
right, it will help us with climate
change, it will help us with wars, it
can solve all the other existential
risks. If we don't get it right, it
dominates. If climate change will take
100 years to boil us alive and super
intelligence kills everyone in five, I
don't have to worry about climate
change. So, either way, either it solves
it for me or it's not an issue.
So, you think it's the most important
thing to be working on? Without
question, there is nothing more
important than getting this right.
And I know everyone says it. You take
any class but you take English
professor's class and he tells you this
is the most important class you'll ever
take. But
you can see the meta level differences
with this one.
Another argument in that paper is that
we will be in control and that the
danger is not AI.
This particular argument asserts that AI
is just a tool. Humans are the real
actors that present danger and we can
always maintain control by simply
turning it off. Can't we just pull the
plug out? I see that every time we have
a conversation on the show about AI,
someone says can't we just unplug it?
Yeah, I get those comments on every
podcast I make and I always want to like
get in touch with the guy and say this
is brilliant. I never thought of it.
We're going to write a paper together
and get a Nobel Prize for it. This is
like let's do it.
Because it's so silly. Like can you turn
off a virus? You have a computer virus
you don't like. You turn it off.
How about Bitcoin? Turn off Bitcoin
network.
Go ahead. I'll wait.
This is silly. Those are distributed
systems. You cannot turn them off and on
top of it they're smarter than you. They
made multiple backups. They predicted
what you're going to do. They will turn
you off before you can turn them off.
The idea that we will be in control
applies only to pre super intelligence
levels. Basically what we have today.
Today humans with AI tools are
dangerous. They can be hackers,
malevolent actors. Absolutely. But the
moment super intelligence becomes
smarter, dominates, they no longer be
important part of that equation. It is
the higher intelligence I'm concerned
about, not the human who
may add additional malevolent payload
but at the end still doesn't control it.
It is tempting
to
follow your the next argument that I saw
in that paper which basically says
listen
this is inevitable.
So there's no point fighting against it
because there's really no hope here. So
we should probably give up even trying
and be faithful that it will work itself
out.
Because everything you've said sounds
really inevitable.
And if with China working on it, I'm
sure Putin's got some secret division.
I'm sure Iran are doing some bits and
pieces. Every European country is trying
to get ahead of AI. The United States is
leading the way.
So it's it's inevitable. So we probably
should just have faith and pray.
Praying is always good but incentives
matter.
If you
looking at what drives these people. So
yes, money is important. So there is a
lot of money in that space and so
everyone's trying to be there and
develop this technology. But if they
truly understand the argument, they
understand that you will be dead.
No amount of money will be useful to
you.
Then incentives switch. They would want
to not be dead. A lot of them are young
people, rich people. They have their
whole lives ahead of them. I think they
would be better off not building
advanced super intelligence,
concentrating on narrow AI tools for
solving specific problems. Okay, my
company cures breast cancer. That's all.
We make billions of dollars. Everyone's
happy. Everyone benefits.
It's a win.
We are still in control today. It's not
over until it's over. We can decide not
to build general super intelligences.
I mean the United States might be able
to conjure up enough enthusiasm for
that. But if the United States doesn't
build general super intelligences, then
China are going to have the big
advantage, right?
So right now at those levels, whoever
has more advanced AI has more advanced
military. No question. We see it with
existing conflicts. But the moment you
switch to super intelligence and control
super intelligence, it doesn't matter
who builds it, us or them. And if they
understand this argument, they also
would not build it. It's a mutually
assured destruction on both ends.
Is this technology different than say
nuclear weapons which require a huge
amount of investment and you have to
like enrich the uranium and you need
billions of dollars potentially to even
build a nuclear weapon.
But it feels like this technology is
much cheaper to get to super
intelligence potentially or at least it
will become cheaper. I wonder if it's
possible that some some guy, some
startup is going to be able to build
super intelligence in
you know, a couple of years without the
need of
you know, billions of dollars of compute
or or electricity power. That's a great
point. So every year it becomes cheaper
and cheaper to train sufficiently large
model. If today it would take a trillion
dollars to build super intelligence,
next year it could be 100 billion and so
on. At some point a guy in a laptop
could do it.
But you don't want to wait four years to
make it affordable. So that's why so
much money is pouring in. Somebody wants
to get there this year and lock in all
the winnings. Litecoin level award.
So in that regard they're both very
expensive projects like Manhattan level
projects. Which is the nuclear bomb
project.
>> Right.
The difference between the two
technologies is that nuclear weapons are
still tools.
Some dictator, some country, someone has
to decide to use them, deploy them.
Whereas super intelligence is not a is
not a tool. It's an agent.
It makes its own decisions and no one is
controlling it. I cannot take out this
dictator and now super intelligence is
safe.
So that's a fundamental difference to
me.
But if you're saying that it is going to
get
incrementally cheaper like I think it's
Moore's law, isn't it? The technology
gets cheaper. It does.
Then there is a future where some guy on
his laptop is going to be able to create
super intelligence without
oversight or regulation or employees,
etc. Yeah, that's why a lot of people
suggesting we need to build something
like um
surveillance planet where you are
monitoring who's doing what and you're
trying to prevent people from doing it.
Do I think it's feasible? No. At some
point it becomes so affordable and so
trivial that it just will happen. But at
this point we're trying to get more
time. We don't want it to happen in five
years. We want it to happen in 50 years.
I mean that's not very hopeful. Depends
on how old you are.
Depends on how old you are.
I mean
if you're saying that
you believe in the future people will be
able to make super intelligence
without the resources that are required
today, then it is just a matter of time.
Yeah, but so will be true for many other
technologies. We're getting much better
in synthetic biology where today someone
with a bachelor's degree in biology can
probably create a new virus.
This will also become cheaper. Other
technologies like that. So we are
approaching a point where it's very
difficult to make sure no technological
breakthrough is the last one. So
essentially in many directions we have
this
pattern of making it easier in terms of
resources, in terms of intelligence to
destroy the world.
If you look at I don't know, 500 years
ago, the worst dictator with all the
resources could kill couple million
people. He couldn't destroy the world.
Now we know nuclear weapons we can blow
up the whole planet multiple times over.
Synthetic biology we saw with COVID, you
can very easily create a combination
virus which impacts billions of people.
And all those things becoming easier to
do.
In the near term you talk about
extinction being a real risk, human
extinction being a real risk. Of all the
the pathways to human extinction that
you think are
most likely, what what is the leading
pathway? Because I know you talk about
there being some issue pre-deployment of
these AI tools like you know, someone
makes a mistake when they're
designing a model or other issues
post-deployment. When I say
post-deployment, I mean once the chat
GPT or something, an
agent is released into the world and
someone hacking into it and changing it
and reprogram reprogramming it to be
malicious. Of all these potential paths
to human extinction, which one do you
think is the highest probability?
So I can only talk about the ones I can
predict myself. So I can predict even
before we get a super intelligence,
someone will create a very advanced
biological tool, create a novel virus
and that virus gets everyone or most
everyone.
I can
envision it. I can understand the
pathway. I can say that. So just
assuming on that then, that would be
using an AI to make a virus and then
releasing it. Yeah.
And would that be
intentional or
There is a lot of psychopaths, a lot of
terrorists, a lot of doomsday cults.
We've seen historically again, they
tried to kill as many people as they
can. They usually fail. They kill
hundreds of thousands.
But if they get technology to kill
millions or billions, they would do that
gladly.
The point I'm trying to emphasize is
that it doesn't matter what I can come
up with. I am not a malevolent actor
you're trying to defeat here. It's the
super intelligence which can come up
with completely novel ways of doing it.
Again, you brought up example of your
dog.
Your dog cannot understand all the ways
you can take it out.
It can maybe think you'll bite it to
death or something. But that's all.
Whereas you have
infinite supply of resources.
So if I asked your dog exactly how
you're going to take it out, it would
not give you a meaningful answer. It can
talk about biting.
And this is what we know. We know
viruses. We experienced viruses. We can
talk about them. But what
an AI system capable of doing novel
physics research can come up with is
beyond me.
One of the things that I think most
people don't understand is how little we
understand about how these AIs are
actually working. Cuz one would assume,
you know, with computers, we kind of
understand how a computer works. We we
know that it's doing this and then this
and it's running on code. But,
from reading your work, you describe it
as being a black box. We actually So, in
the context of something like ChatGPT or
an AI we know, you're telling me that
the people that have built that tool
don't actually know
what's going on inside there.
That's exactly right. So, even people
making those systems have to run
experiments on their product to learn
what it's capable of. So, they train it
by giving it all of data, let's say all
of internet text.
They run it on a lot of computers to
learn patterns in that text. And then we
start experimenting with that model. Oh,
do you speak French? Or, can you do
mathematics? Or, are you lying to me
now? And so, maybe it takes a year to
train it and then 6 months to get some
fundamentals about what it's capable of.
Some safety overhead.
But, we still discover new capabilities
in old models. If you ask a question in
a different way, it becomes smarter.
So, it's
no longer
engineering how it was the first 50
years where someone was a knowledge
engineer programming an expert system AI
to do specific things. It's a science.
We are creating this artifact, growing
it. It's like a alien plant. And then we
study it to see what it's doing.
And just like with plants, we don't have
100% accurate knowledge of biology.
We don't have full knowledge here. We
kind of know some patterns. We know,
okay, if we add more compute, it gets
smarter most of the time. But,
nobody can tell you precisely what the
outcome is going to be given a set of
inputs.
I've watched so many entrepreneurs treat
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get a 30-day free trial. What do you
make of OpenAI and Sam Altman and what
they're doing?
And obviously, you're aware that one of
the co-founders, was it um This was Ilya
Sutskever?
Ilya yeah. Ilya left and he started a a
new company called Superintelligence
Safety. Superintelligence Safety.
>> AI safety wasn't challenging enough, he
decided to just jump right to the hard
problem.
As an onlooker, when you see that people
are leaving OpenAI to to start
superintelligent safety companies,
what was your read on that situation?
So, a lot of people who worked with Sam
said that maybe he's not the most direct
person in terms of being honest with
them and they had concerns about his
views on safety.
That's part of it. So, they wanted more
control, they wanted more concentration
on safety. But, also it seems that
anyone who leaves that company and
starts a new one gets a $20 valuation
just for having it started. You don't
have a product, you don't have
customers, but
if you want to make many billions of
dollars, just do that. So, it seems like
a very rational thing to do for anyone
who can.
So, I'm not surprised that there is a
lot of attrition.
Meeting him in person, he's super nice,
very smart.
Absolutely
perfect public interface. You see him
testify in the Senate, he says the right
thing to the senators. You see him talk
to the investors, they get the right
message.
But, if you look at what people who know
him personally are saying,
it's probably not the right person to be
controlling a project of that impact.
Why?
He puts safety second.
Second to
winning this race to superintelligence,
being the guy who created God and
controlling light cone of the universe.
He's worse.
Do you suspect that's what he's driven
by is by the the legacy of being an
impactful person that did a
remarkable thing versus
the consequence that that might have on
for society?
Because it's interesting that his his
other startup is Worldcoin, which is
basically a platform to create universal
basic income. I a platform to give us
income in a world where
people don't have jobs anymore. So, on
one hand you're creating an AI company,
on the other hand you're creating a
company that is preparing for people to
not have employment.
It also has other
properties. It keeps track of everyone's
biometrics.
It
keeps you in charge of a world's
economy, world's wealth. They are
retaining a large portion of Worldcoins.
So, I I think it's kind of very
reasonable part to integrate with world
dominance. If you have a
superintelligence system and you control
money,
you're doing well.
Why would someone want world dominance?
People have different levels of
ambition. Then you are very young person
with billions of dollars, fame, you
start looking for more ambitious
projects. Some people want to go to
Mars, others want to control light cone
of the universe.
What What did you say, light cone of the
universe?
>> Light cone. So, every part of the
universe light can reach from this
point, meaning anything accessible you
want to grab and
bring into your control. You think Sam
Altman wants to control
every part of the universe?
I I suspect he might, yes.
Hmm.
It doesn't mean he doesn't want a side
effect of it being a very beneficial
technology which makes all the humans
happy.
Happy humans are good for control.
If you had to guess
what the world looks like in
2100,
if you had to guess,
it's either
free of human existence or it's
completely not comprehensible to someone
like us.
It's one of those extremes. So, there's
either no humans It's basically the
world is destroyed or it's so different
that I cannot envision those
predictions.
What can be done to turn this ship to a
more certain positive outcome at this
point?
Is Is there still things that we can do
or is it too late? So, I believe in
personal self-interest. If people
realize that doing this thing is really
bad for them personally, they will not
do it. So, our job is to convince
everyone with any power in this space
creating this technology working for
these companies,
they are doing something very bad
for them. Not just forget about eight
billion people you're experimenting on
with no permission,
no consent, you will not be happy with
the outcome. If we can get everyone to
understand that's the default, and it's
not just me saying it. You had Geoff
Hinton on
him. Nobel Prize winner, founder of the
whole machine learning space. He says
the same thing. Bengio, dozens of
others, top scholars. We had a statement
about dangers of AI signed by thousands
of scholars, computer scientists. This
is basically what we think right now and
we need to make it a universal. No one
should disagree with this. And then, we
may actually make good decisions about
what technology to build. It doesn't
guarantee long-term safety for humanity,
but it means we're not trying to get
there as soon as possible to the worst
possible outcome.
And do you Are you hopeful that that's
even possible?
I want to try. We have no choice but to
try.
And what would need to happen and who
would need to act? What is it government
legislation? Is it
Unfortunately, I don't think making it
illegal is sufficient. There are
different jurisdictions, there is, you
know, loopholes. And what are you going
to do if somebody does it? You're going
to fine them for destroying humanity?
Like very steep fines for it? Like what
are you going to do? It's not
enforceable. If they do create it, now
the superintelligence is in charge. So,
the judicial system we have is not
impactful. And all the punishments we
have are designed for punishing humans.
Prisons, capital punishment doesn't
apply to AI.
Here's the problem I have is when I have
these conversations, I never feel like I
walk away with
hope that something's going to go well.
And what I mean by that is I never feel
like I walk away with clear some kind of
a clear set of actions that can course
correct what might happen here. So, what
should What should I do? What should the
person sat at home listening to this do?
You You talked to a lot of people who
are building this technology. Mhm.
Ask them precisely to explain some of
those things they claim to be
impossible, how they solved it or going
to solve it before they get to where
they're going. Do you know, I don't
think Sam Altman wants to talk to me.
I don't know. He seems to go on a lot of
podcasts. Maybe he does.
>> wants to go on mine.
I wonder why that is.
I'd love to speak to him, but I don't I
don't think he wants to
I don't think he wants me to
interview him. Have an open challenge.
Maybe money is not the incentive, but
whatever attracts people like that,
whoever can convince you that it's
possible to control and make safe super
intelligence gets the prize. They come
on your show and prove their case.
Anyone. If no one claims the prize or
even accepts the challenge after a few
years, maybe we don't have anyone with
solutions.
We have companies valued again at
billions and billions of dollars working
on safe super intelligence.
We haven't seen their output yet.
Yeah, I'd like to speak to Ilya as well
cuz I know he's he's working on safe
super intelligence, so
Notice the pattern too. If you look at
history of AI safety organizations
or
departments within companies,
they usually start well, very ambitious,
and then they fail and disappear.
So,
OpenAI had super intelligence alignment
team.
The day they announced it, I think they
said we're going to solve it in 4 years.
Like half a year later they canceled the
team.
And there is dozens of similar examples.
Leading
a perfect safety for super intelligence,
perpetual safety as it keeps improving,
modifying, interacting with people.
You're never going to get there. It's
impossible.
There is a big difference between
difficult problems in computer science
and be complete problems and impossible
problems. And I think control indefinite
control of super intelligence is such a
problem. So, what's the point trying
then if it's impossible? Well, I'm
trying to prove that it is specifically
that. Once we establish something is
impossible, fewer people will waste
their time claiming they can do it and
find looking for money. So many people
go and give me a billion dollars in 2
years and I'll solve it for you.
Well, I don't think you will.
But people aren't going to stop striving
towards it. So, if there's no attempts
to
make it safe and there's more people
increasingly striving towards it, then
it's inevitable. But it changes what we
do. If we know that it's impossible to
make it right, to make it safe, then
this direct path of just build it as
soon as you can become suicide mission.
Hopefully fewer people will pursue that.
They may go in other directions like
again,
I'm a scientist, I'm an engineer. I love
AI. I love technology. I use it all the
time. Build useful tools. Stop building
agents.
Build narrow super intelligence, not a
general one. I'm not saying you
shouldn't make billions of dollars. I
love billions of dollars.
But
don't kill everyone, yourself included.
They don't think they're going to
though.
Then tell us why.
I hear things about intuition. I hear
things about we'll solve it later. Tell
me specifically in scientific terms.
Publish a peer-reviewed paper explaining
how you're going to control super
intelligence.
It's strange. It's strange to it's
strange to even bother if there was even
a 1% chance of human extinction. It's
strange to do something. Like if there
was a 1% chance Someone told me there
was a 1% chance that if I got in a car,
I might not I might not be alive, I
would not get in the car. If you told me
there was a 1% chance that if I drank
whatever liquid is in this cup right
now, I might die, I would not drink the
liquid. Even if there was
a billion dollars
if I survived. So, the 99% chance is I
get a billion dollars, the 1% is I die.
I wouldn't drink it. I wouldn't take the
chance. It's worse than that. Not just
you die, everyone dies. Yeah. Yeah. Now,
would we let you drink it at any odds?
That's for us to decide. You don't get
to make that choice for us.
To get consent from human subjects,
you need them to comprehend what they
are consenting to.
If those systems are unexplainable,
unpredictable, how can they consent?
They don't know what they are consenting
to. Mhm.
So, it's impossible to get consent by
definition.
So, this experiment can never be run
ethically.
By definition, they are doing unethical
experimentation on human subjects. Do
you think people should be protesting?
There are people protesting. There is
Stop AI. There is Pause AI. They block
offices of OpenAI. They do it weekly,
monthly. There are quite a few actions
and they're recruiting new people. You
think more people should be protesting?
Do you think that's an effective
solution?
If you can get it to a large enough
scale to where majority of population is
participating, it would be impactful. I
don't know if they can scale from
current numbers to that, but I support
everyone trying everything peacefully
and legally.
And for the for the person listening at
home, what should they what should they
be doing? What what
cuz they they don't want to feel
powerless. None of us want to feel
powerless.
So, it depends on what scale we are
asking about time scale. I was saying
like this year your kid goes to college,
what major to pick? Should they go to
college at all? Yeah. Should you switch
jobs? Should you go into certain
industries? Those questions we can
answer. We can talk about immediate
future.
What should you do in 5 years with
this being created? For an average
person, not much. Just like they can't
influence World War III nuclear
holocaust, anything like that. It's not
something anyone's going to ask them
about.
Today, if you want to be a part of this
movement, yeah, join Pause AI, join Stop
AI. Those are organizations currently
trying to build up momentum to
bring
democratic powers to influence those
individuals.
So, in the meantime,
not a huge amount. I was wondering if
there there are any interesting
strategies in the meantime. Like should
I be thinking differently about my
family, about I mean, you've got kids,
right? You've got three kids. That I
know about, yeah.
How are you thinking about parenting in
this world that you see around the
corner? How are you thinking about what
to say to them, the advice to give them,
what they should be learning? So, there
is general advice.
I would say that there is the main that
you should live your everyday as if it's
your last.
It's a good advice no matter what. If
you have 3 years left or 30 years left,
you live your best life.
So,
try to not do things you hate for too
long.
Do interesting things. Do impactful
things.
If you can do all that while helping
people, do that.
Simulation theory
is a interesting sort of adjacent
subject here because as computers begin
to accelerate and get more intelligent
and we're able to
you know, do things with AI that we can
never have imagined in terms of like
imagine the worlds that we could create
with virtual reality. I think it was
Google that recently released
what was it called? Um
like the AI worlds. You take a picture
and it generates a whole world. Yeah.
Yeah. You can move through the world.
I'll put it on the screen for people to
see, but Google have released this
technology which allows you, I think
with a simple prompt actually, to make a
three-dimensional world that you can
then navigate through. And in that world
it has memory. So, in the world if you
paint on a wall and turn away, you look
back, the wall
>> Yeah, it's persistent. And when I saw
that, I thought oh God, Jesus, bloody
hell, this is
this is like the foothills of being able
to create a simulation that's
indistinguishable from everything I see
here. Right.
That's why I think we are in one. That's
exactly the reason. AI is getting to the
level of creating human agents, human
level agents, and virtual reality is
getting to the level of being
indistinguishable from ours.
So, you think this is a simulation? I'm
pretty sure we are in a simulation,
yeah.
For someone that isn't familiar with the
simulation arguments, what are what are
the first principles here that convince
you that we are currently living in a
simulation?
So,
you need certain technologies to make it
happen. If you believe we can create
human level AI, Yeah. and you believe we
can create virtual reality as good as
this in terms of resolution, haptics,
whatever properties it has,
then I commit right now, the moment this
is affordable, I'm going to run billions
of simulations of this exact moment
making sure you are statistically in
one.
Say that last part again. You're going
to run you're going to run I'm going to
commit right now when it's very
affordable. It's like 10 bucks a month
to run it. I'm going to run a billion
simulations of this interview.
Why?
Because statistically that means you are
in one right now. The chance of you
being in the real one is one in a
billion.
Okay. So,
to make sure I'm clear on this, It's a
retroactive placement. Yeah. So, the
minute it's affordable,
then
you can run billions of them
and they would feel and appear to be
exactly like this interview right now.
>> Right. So, assuming that AI has internal
states, experiences, qualia. Some people
argue that they don't. Some say they
already have it. That's a separate
philosophical question, but if we can
simulate this, I will.
Some people might misunderstand. You're
not
you're not saying that you will.
You're saying that someone will. I can
also do it. I don't mind.
Okay. Of course, others will do it
before I get there. If I'm getting it
for $10, somebody got it for $1,000.
That's not the point. If you have
technology, we're definitely running a
lot of simulations for research, for
entertainment, games,
all sorts of reasons.
And the number of those greatly exceeds
the number of real worlds we're in.
Look at all the video games kids are
playing. Every kid plays 10 different
games. You know, billion kids in the
world. So, there is 10 billion
simulations in one real world. Mhm.
Even more so when we think about
advanced AI super intelligent systems.
Their thinking is not like ours. They
think in a lot more detail. They run
experiments. So, running a detailed
simulation of some problem at the level
of creating artificial humans and
simulating the whole planet would be
something they'll do routinely.
So, there is a good chance this is not
me doing it for $10. It's a future
simulation thinking about something in
this world.
So, it could be the case that
a species of humans or a species of
intelligence in some form got to this
point where they could affordably run
simulations that are indistinguishable
from this
and they decided to do it
and this is it right now.
And it would make sense that they would
run simulations as experiments or for
games or for entertainment. And also,
when we think about time in the world
that I'm in in this simulation that I
could be in right now, time feels long
relatively. You know, I have 24 hours in
a day, but on there in their world it
could be
Time is relative. Relative, yeah. It
could be a second. My whole life could
be a millisecond in there.
>> Right. You can change speed of
simulations you're running for sure.
So, your belief is that this is probably
a simulation. Most likely. And there is
a lot of agreement on that if you look
again returning to religions. Every
religion basically describes what? A
super intelligent being
an engineer, a programmer creating a
fake world for testing purposes or for
whatever. But, if you took the
simulation hypothesis paper
you go to jungle, you talk to primitive
people, a local tribe and in their
language you tell them about it.
Go back two generations later. They have
religion. That's basically what the
story is.
Religion, you know, it describes a
simulation theory basically. Somebody
creates
>> So, by default that was the first theory
we had and now with science more and
more people are going like I'm giving it
non-trivial probability. A few people as
high as I am, but a lot of people give
it some credence. What percentage are
you at in terms of believing that we are
currently living in a simulation? Very
close to certainty.
And what does that mean for
the nature of your life? If you're close
to 100% certain that we are currently
living in a simulation
does that change anything in your life?
So, all the things you care about are
still the same. Pain still hurts. Love
still love, right? Like those things are
not different, so it doesn't matter.
They're still important. That's what
matters.
The
little 1% difference is that I care
about what's outside the simulation. I
want to learn about it. I write papers
about it. So, that's the only impact.
And what do you think is outside of the
simulation? I don't know.
But, we can
look at this world and derive some
properties of the simulators.
So, clearly brilliant engineer,
brilliant scientist, brilliant artist.
Not so good with morals and ethics.
Room for improvement.
In our view of what morals and ethics
should be. Well, we we know there is
suffering in the world. So, unless you
think it's ethical to torture children,
then
I'm questioning your approach. But, in
terms of incentives to create a positive
incentive, you probably also need to
create negative incentives. Suffering
seems to be one of the negatives and
incentives built into our design to stop
me doing things I shouldn't do. So, like
put my hand in a fire, it's going to
hurt. But, it's all about levels, levels
of suffering, right? So, unpleasant
stimuli, negative feedback doesn't have
to be at like negative infinity hell
levels. You don't want to burn alive and
feel it. You want to be like, "Oh, this
is uncomfortable. I'm going to stop."
It's interesting because we we assume
that they don't have great moral morals
and ethics, but we too would we take
animals and cook them and eat them for a
dinner and
we also take conduct experiments on mice
and rats
>> But, to get university approval to
conduct an experiment you submit a
proposal and there is a panel of
ethicists who would say, "You can't
experiment on humans. You can't burn
babies. You can't eat animals alive."
All those things would be banned.
In most parts of the world. Where they
have ethical boards. Yeah. Cuz some
places don't bother with it, so they
have easier approval process.
It's funny when you talk about the
simulation theory, there's a there's an
element of the conversation that makes
life feel less meaningful in a weird
way.
Like
I know it doesn't matter but whenever I
have this conversation with people not
on the podcast about are we living in a
simulation
you almost see a little bit of meaning
come out of their life for a second and
then they forget and then they carry on.
But, the the the thought that this is a
simulation almost
posits that it's not important
or that I I think humans want to believe
that this is the highest level and we're
that the most important and we're the
it's all about us. We're quite
egotistical by design.
And yeah, I just a interesting
observation I've always had when I have
these conversations with people that it
it seems to strip something out of their
life. Do you feel religious people feel
that way? They know there is another
world and the one that matters is not
this one. Do you feel they don't value
their lives the same?
I guess in some religions. Think um they
think that this world is being created
for them and that they are going to go
to this heaven or or hell and that still
puts them at the very center of it. But,
it but if it's a simulation, you know,
we could just be
some computer game that a 4-year-old
alien has is messing around with and
while he's got some time to burn.
But, maybe there is, you know, a test
and there is a better simulation you go
to and a worse one. Maybe there are
different difficulty levels. Maybe you
want to play it on a harder setting next
time.
I've just invested millions into this
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I've built companies from scratch and
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And do you think much about longevity? A
lot, yeah. It's probably the second most
important problem because if AI doesn't
get us, that will.
What do you mean? You're going to die of
old age.
Which is fine. That's not good. You want
to die?
I mean You don't have to. It's just a
disease. We can cure it.
Nothing stops you from living forever.
As long as universe exists unless we
escape the simulation.
But, we wouldn't want a world where
everybody could live forever, right?
That would be Sure we do. Why? Who do
you want to die?
Well, I don't know. I
I mean I say this because it's all I've
ever known that people die, but wouldn't
the world become pretty overcrowded if
>> No, you stop reproducing if you live
forever. You have kids because you want
a replacement for you. If you live
forever, you're like, "I'll have kids in
a million years. That's cool." I'll go
explore universe first.
Plus, if you look at actual population
dynamics outside of like one continent,
we're all shrinking. We're not growing.
This is crazy. It's crazy that the more
rich people get, the less kids they they
have which aligns with what you're
saying and I do actually think I think
if I'm going to be completely honest
here, I think if I knew that I was going
to live to 1,000 years old, there's no
way I'd be having kids at 30. Right.
It's a Biological clocks are based on
terminal points. Whereas, if your
biological clock is infinite, you'd be
like one day.
And you think that's close?
Uh Being able to extend our lives?
It's one breakthrough away. I think
somewhere in our genome we have this
rejuvenation loop and it's set to
basically give us at most 120. I think
we can reset it to something bigger.
AI is probably going to accelerate that.
That's one very important application
area, yes, absolutely.
So, maybe Brian Johnson's right when he
says don't die.
Now, he keeps saying to me, he's like,
don't die now. Don't die ever. Because
he's saying like don't die before we get
to the technology.
>> Right. Longevity escape velocity. You
want to long live long enough to live
forever. If at some point we
every year of your existence add 2 years
to your existence through medical
breakthroughs, then you live forever.
You just have to make it to that point
of longevity escape velocity.
And he thinks that longevity escape
velocity, especially in the world of AI,
is pretty
is pretty
is decades away, minimum, which means
As soon as we fully understand human
genome, I think we'll make amazing
breakthroughs very quickly. Because we
know some people have genes for living
way longer. They have generations of
people who are centenarians. So, if we
can understand that and copy that or
copy it from some animals which will
live forever,
we'll get there. Would you want to live
forever?
>> Reverse reverse the question. Let's say
we lived forever and you ask me, do you
want to die in 40 years? Why would I say
yes? I don't know. Maybe
>> You just used to the default. Yeah, I am
used to the default. And nobody wants to
die. Like, no matter how old you are,
nobody goes, yeah, I want to die this
year. Everyone's like, ah, I want to
keep living.
I wonder if life and everything would be
less special if I lived for
10,000 years. I wonder if going to
Hawaii for the first time or, I don't
know,
a relationship. All of these things
would be way less special to me if
they were less scarce.
And if that I just, you know, It could
be individually less special, but there
is so much more you can do. Right now,
you can only make plans to do something
for a decade or two. You cannot have an
ambitious plan of working on this
project for 500 years. Imagine
possibilities open to you with infinite
time in an infinite universe.
Gosh.
Well, you can't.
>> Because it's exhausting, I guess. It's a
big amount of time.
I don't know about you, but I don't
remember like 99% of my life in detail.
I remember big highlights. So, even if I
enjoyed Hawaii 10 years ago, I'll enjoy
it again.
Are you thinking about that really
practically as as in terms of, you know,
if in the same way that Brian Johnson is
Brian Johnson is convinced that we're
like maybe two decades away from being
able to extend life. Are you thinking
about that practically? And are you
doing anything about it?
>> Diet, nutrition. I try to think about
investment strategies which pay out in
the long years, yeah.
Really? Yeah, of course. What do you
mean of course? Of course Why wouldn't
you if you think this is what's going to
happen? You you should try that. So, if
we get AI right, now, what happens to
economy? We talked about Worldcoin. We
talked about free labor.
What's money? Is it now Bitcoin? Do you
invest in that? Is there something else
which becomes the only resource we
cannot fake? So, those things are very
important research topics. So, you're
investing in Bitcoin, aren't you?
Yeah.
Because it's a It's the only scarce
resource. Nothing else has scarcity.
Everything else, if price goes up, will
make more. I can make as much gold as
you want given a proper price point.
You cannot make more Bitcoin.
Some people say Bitcoin is just this
thing on a computer that we all agreed
was valuable.
>> Yeah, a thing on a computer.
Remember?
Okay, so, I mean, not investment advice,
but investment advice. It's hilarious
how that's one of those things where
they tell you it's not, but you know it
is immediately. There is a your call is
important to us. That means your call is
of zero importance. And investment is
like that. Yeah, yeah, when they say no
investment advice, it's definitely
investment advice. Um, but it's not
investment advice. Okay, so, you're
bullish on Bitcoin because it's
it can't be messed with.
It is the only thing which we know how
much there is
in the universe. So, gold, there could
be an asteroid made out of pure gold
heading towards us, devaluing it.
Well, also killing all of us, but
Bitcoin, I know exactly the numbers. And
even the 21 million is an upper limit.
How many are lost? Passwords forgotten.
I don't know what Satoshi's doing with
his million.
It's getting scarcer every day while
more and more people are trying to
accumulate it.
Some people worry that it could be
hacked with a supercomputer. A quantum
computer can break that algorithm. There
is
strategies for switching to quantum
resistant cryptography for that. And
quantum computers are still kind of
weak.
Do you think there's any changes to my
life that I should make
following this conversation? Is there
anything that I should do differently
the minute I walk out of this door?
I assume you already invest in Bitcoin
heavily. Yes, I'm an an investor in
Bitcoin. Is this financial advice?
Uh, no, just you seem to be winning.
Maybe it's your simulation. You're rich,
handsome. You have famous people hang
out with you like that's pretty good.
Keep it up.
Robin Hanson has a paper about how to
live in a simulation, what you should be
doing in it.
And your goal is to do exactly that. You
want to be interesting. You want to hang
out with famous people so they don't
shut it down. So, you are part of a part
someone's actually watching on
pay-per-view or something like that.
Well, I don't know if you want to be
watched on pay-per-view because then you
would be the same
>> Then they shut you down. If no one's
watching, why would they play it?
I'm saying you don't you want to fly
under the radar? Don't you want to be
the the guy just living a normal life
that the the masters Those are NPCs.
Nobody wants to be an NPC.
Are you religious?
Not in any traditional sense, but I
believe in simulation hypothesis which
has a super intelligent being. So,
But you don't believe in the like,
you know, the religious books.
So, different religions. This religion
will tell you don't work Saturday. This
one, don't work Sunday.
Don't eat pigs. Don't eat carbs. They
just have local traditions on top of
that theory. That's all it is. They're
all the same religion. They all worship
super intelligent being.
They all think this world is not the
main one.
And they argue about which animal not to
eat.
Skip the local flavors. Concentrate on
what do all the religions have in
common?
And that's the interesting part.
They all think there is something
greater than humans. Very capable,
all-knowing, all-powerful. Then they run
a computer game.
For those characters in the game, I am
that.
I can change the whole world. I can shut
it down. I know everything in the world.
It's funny. I was thinking earlier on
when we started talking about the
simulation theory that there's there
might be something in a in us that has
been left from the creator, almost like
a clue. Like a like an intuition.
Cuz that's what we we tend to have
through history. Humans have this
intuition. Yeah. That all the things you
said are true. That there's this
somebody above and that We have
generations of people who were
religious, who believed God told them
and was there and gave them books. And
that has been passed on for many
generations. This is probably one of the
earliest generations not to have
universal religious belief.
What if those people are telling the
truth?
What if there's people there's people
that say God came to them and said
something. Imagine that. Imagine if that
was part of the I'm looking at the news
today. Something happened an hour ago
and I'm getting different conflicting
results. I can't even get with cameras,
with drones, with like guy on Twitter
there. I still don't know what happened.
And you think 3,000 years ago we have
accurate record of translations? No, of
course not.
You know, these conversations you have
around AI safety.
Do you think they make people feel good?
I don't know if they feel good or bad,
but people find it interesting. It's one
of those topics where I can't have a
conversation about different cures for
cancer with an average person, but
everyone has opinions about AI. Everyone
has opinions about simulation. It's
interesting that you don't have to be
highly educated or a genius to
understand those concepts.
Cuz I tend to think that it makes me
feel
not positive.
And I understand that, but I've always
been of the opinion that
you shouldn't live in a world of
delusion where you're just seeking to be
positive have sort of
positive things said and avoid
uncomfortable conversations. Actually,
progress often in my life comes from
like having uncomfortable conversations,
becoming aware about something, and then
at least being informed about how I can
do something about it.
And so,
I think that's why that's why I asked
the question cuz I think I assume most
people will should, if they're, you
know, if they're normal human beings,
listen to these conversations and go,
gosh, that's scary.
And this is concerning.
And and then I can come back to this
point which is like, well, what do I do
with that energy?
Yeah, but I'm trying to point out this
is not different than so many
conversations. We can talk about, oh,
there is starvation in this region,
genocide in this region. You're all
dying. Cancer is spreading. Atheism is
up. You can always find something to be
very depressed about and nothing you can
do about it. And we're very good at
concentrating on what we can change,
what we are good at, and
basically
not trying to embrace the whole world as
a local environment. So, historically,
you grew up with a tribe. You had a
dozen people around you. If something
happened to one of them, it was very
rare. It was an accident. Now, if I go
on the internet, somebody gets killed
everywhere all the time. Somehow,
thousands of people are reported to me
every day. I don't even have time to
notice.
It's just too much. So, I have to put
filters in place.
And I think this topic is what
people are very good at filtering as
like this was this entertaining
talk I went to, kind of like a show, and
the moment I exit, it ends. So, usually
I would go give a keynote at a
conference and
I tell them basically you're going to
die, you have 2 years left, any
questions?
And people be like,
will I lose my job?
How do I lubricate my sex robot? Like
all sorts of nonsense, clearly
understanding what I'm trying to say
there.
And those are good questions,
interesting questions, but not fully
embracing the result. They're still in
their bubble of local versus global.
And the people that disagree with you
the most as it relates to AI safety,
what is it that they say?
What are their counterarguments
typically?
So, many don't engage at all. Like they
have no background knowledge in the
subject. They never read a single book,
single paper, not just by me, by anyone.
They may be even working in a field, so
they are doing some machine learning
work for some company maximizing ad
clicks.
And to them, those systems are very
narrow.
And then they hear that all this AI is
going to take over the world like has no
hands. How would it do that? It's
nonsense. This guy is crazy, has a
beard, why would I listen to him, right?
That's uh
Then they start reading a little bit.
They go, oh okay, so maybe I can be
dangerous, yeah, I see that, but we
always solve problems in the past, we're
going to solve them again. I mean, at
some point we fixed the computer virus
or something, so it's the same.
And basically, the more exposure they
have, the less likely they are to keep
that position. I know many people who
went from
super
careless developer to safety researcher.
I don't know anyone who went from I
worry about AI safety to like there is
nothing to worry about.
What are your closing statements?
Uh let's make sure that it's not a
closing statement we need to give for
humanity. Let's make sure we stay in
charge, in control.
Let's make sure we only build things
which are beneficial to us.
Let's make sure people who are making
those decisions are remotely qualified
to do it.
They are good, not just at science,
engineering, and business, but also have
moral and ethical standards.
And uh if you're doing something which
impacts other people, you should ask
their permission before you do that. If
there was one button in front of you
and it would
shut down every AI company in the world
right now
permanently, with the inability for
anybody to start a new one,
would you press the button? Are we
losing narrow AI or just
superintelligent AGI part? Losing all of
AI.
That's a hard question because AI is an
extremely important, it controls stock
market, power plants, it controls
hospitals. It would be a devastating
accident. Millions of people would lose
their lives. Okay, we can keep narrow
AI. Oh, yeah.
That's what we want. We want narrow AI
to do all this for us, but not God we
don't control doing things to us. So,
you would stop it, you would stop AGI
and superintelligence.
>> We have AGI. What we have today is great
for almost everything. We can make
secretaries out of it. 99% of the
economic potential of current technology
has not been deployed. We make AI so
quickly, it doesn't have time to
propagate through the industry, through
technology. Something like half of all
jobs are considered BS jobs. They don't
need to be done, jobs.
So, those can be not even automated,
they can just gone. But I'm saying we
can replace 60% of jobs today with
existing models.
We've not done that. So, if the goal is
to grow economy, to develop, we can do
it for decades without having to create
superintelligence as soon as possible.
Do you think globally, especially in the
Western world, unemployment's only going
to go up from here?
Do you think relatively this is the low
of unemployment?
I mean, it fluctuates a lot with other
factors. There are wars, there is
economic cycles, but overall, the more
jobs you automate and the higher is the
intellectual necessity to start a job,
the fewer people qualify.
So, if we plotted it on a graph over the
next 20 years, you're assuming
unemployment's gradually going to go up
over that time. I think so. Fewer and
fewer people would be able to
contribute. Already, we kind of
understand it because we created minimum
wage. We understood some people don't
contribute enough economic value to get
paid
anything really. So, we had to force
employers to pay them more than they're
worth.
And we haven't updated it. It's what,
725 federally in US?
If you keep up with the economy, it
should be like $25 an hour now.
Which means all these people making less
are not contributing enough economic
output to justify what they're getting
paid.
We have a closing tradition on this
podcast where the last guest leaves a
question for the next guest not knowing
who they're leaving it for.
And the question left for you is, what
are what are the most important
characteristics
for a friend,
colleague,
or mate?
Those are very different types of
people.
Mhm. But for all of them, loyalty is
number one.
And what does loyalty mean to you?
Not betraying you,
not screwing you, not cheating on you.
Despite the temptation.
Despite the world being as it is,
situation, environment.
Dr. Roman, thank you so much. Thank you
so much for doing what you do because
you're you're starting a conversation
and pushing forward a conversation and
doing research that is
incredibly important and you're doing it
in the face of a lot of um
a lot of skeptics.
I'd say there's a lot of people that
have a lot of incentives to discredit
what you're saying and what you do
because they have
their own incentives and they have
billions of dollars on the line and they
have their jobs on the line potentially
as well, so
it's really important that there are
people out there that are willing to
I guess stick their head above the
parapet and
come on shows like this and go on big
platforms and talk about
the unexplainable, unpredictable,
uncontrollable future that we're heading
towards.
So, thank you for doing that. This book,
which which I think everybody should
should check out if they want a
continuation of this conversation,
I think it was published in 2024,
gives a holistic view on many of the
things we've talked about today, um
preventing AI failures and much, much
more. And I'm going to link it below for
anybody that wants to read it. If people
want to learn more from you, if they
want to go further into your work,
what's the best thing for them to do?
Where do they go? They can follow me,
follow me on Facebook, follow me on X,
just don't follow me home. Very
important.
>> do it.
Okay, so I'll put your Twitter, your X
account um as well below so people can
follow you there.
And yeah, thank you so much for doing
what you did. Remarkably eye-opening and
it's given me so much food for thought
and it's actually convinced me more that
we are living in a simulation. But it's
also made me think quite differently of
religion, I have to say,
because um you're right, all the
religions, when you get away from the
sort of the local traditions, they do
all point at the same thing.
And actually, if they are all pointing
at the same thing, then maybe the
fundamental truths that exist across
them should be something I pay more
attention to. Things like loving thy
neighbor, things like the fact that we
are all one, that there's a a divine
creator, and maybe also they all seem to
have consequence beyond this life.
So, maybe I should be thinking more
about
how I behave in this life and and where
I might end up thereafter.
Roman, thank you. Amen.
Oh
oh oh oh oh.
Oh
oh oh oh oh.
Ask follow-up questions or revisit key timestamps.
Dr. Roman Yampolskiy, a prominent expert in AI safety, discusses the existential risks posed by the rapid development of artificial superintelligence. He argues that current AI safety efforts are essentially band-aids on a core problem we do not know how to solve: creating systems that remain aligned with human values as they become smarter than us. Yampolskiy also shares his belief that we are likely living in a computer simulation, a hypothesis he sees as aligned with the core tenets of world religions, and emphasizes the need for humanity to reconsider its reckless pursuit of AGI.
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