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The AI Safety Expert: These Are The Only 5 Jobs That Will Remain In 2030! - Dr. Roman Yampolskiy

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The AI Safety Expert: These Are The Only 5 Jobs That Will Remain In 2030! - Dr. Roman Yampolskiy

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2524 segments

0:00

You've been working on AI safety for two

0:01

decades at least.

0:02

>> Yeah. I was convinced we can make safe

0:04

AI, but the more I looked at it, the

0:06

more I realized is not something we can

0:08

actually do. You have made a series of

0:10

predictions about variety of different

0:12

dates. So, what is your prediction for

0:15

2027?

0:19

Dr. Roman Yampolskiy is a globally

0:21

recognized voice on AI safety and

0:23

associate professor of computer science.

0:25

He educates people on the terrifying

0:27

truth of AI

0:28

>> and what we need to do to save humanity.

0:30

In 2 years, the capability to replace

0:32

most humans in most occupations will

0:34

come very quickly. And then in 5 years,

0:37

we're looking at a world where we have

0:39

levels of unemployment we've never seen

0:40

before. Not talking about 10% but 99%.

0:45

And that's without super intelligence, a

0:47

system smarter than all humans in all

0:49

domains. So, it would be better than us

0:51

at making new AI. But it's worse than

0:54

that. We don't know how to make them

0:55

safe. And yet we still have the smartest

0:57

people in the world competing to win the

0:59

race to super intelligence. But what do

1:01

you make of people like Sam Altman's

1:02

journey with AI? So, a decade ago, we

1:05

published guardrails for how to do AI

1:07

right. They violated every single one.

1:10

And he's gambling 8 billion lives on

1:12

getting richer and more powerful. So, I

1:14

guess some people want to go to Mars.

1:16

Others want to control the universe.

1:18

But it doesn't matter who builds it. The

1:20

moment you switch to super intelligence,

1:22

we will most likely regret it terribly.

1:24

And then by 2045?

1:27

Now, this is where it gets interesting.

1:30

Dr. Roman Yampolskiy, let's talk about

1:32

simulation theory. I think we are in

1:34

one. And there is a lot of agreement on

1:36

this. And this is what you should be

1:37

doing in it so they don't shut it down.

1:40

First,

1:42

I see messages all the time in the

1:44

comment section that some of you didn't

1:45

realize you didn't subscribe. So, if you

1:47

could do me a favor and double-check if

1:49

you're a subscriber to this channel,

1:50

that would be tremendously appreciated.

1:52

It's the simple, it's the free thing

1:54

that anybody that watches this show

1:55

frequently can do to help us here to

1:57

keep everything going in this show in

1:58

the trajectory it's on. So, please do

2:00

double-check if you subscribed and uh

2:02

thank you so much because in a strange

2:04

way you are you're part of our history

2:06

and you're on this journey with us and I

2:07

appreciate you for that. So, yeah, thank

2:09

you.

2:13

Dr. Roman Yampolskiy.

2:17

What is the mission that you're

2:18

currently on? Cuz it's quite clear to me

2:20

that you are on a bit of a mission and

2:22

you've been on this mission for, I

2:23

think, the best part of two decades at

2:24

least.

2:26

I'm hoping to make sure that super

2:29

intelligence we are creating right now

2:31

does not kill everyone.

2:37

Give me some Give me some context on

2:39

that statement cuz it's quite a shocking

2:40

statement.

2:41

Sure. So, the last decade, we actually

2:44

figured out how to make artificial

2:46

intelligence better.

2:48

Turns out if you add more compute, more

2:51

data,

2:52

it just kind of becomes smarter.

2:55

And so now, smartest people in the

2:57

world, billions of dollars, all going to

3:00

create the best possible super

3:02

intelligence we can.

3:04

Unfortunately, while we know how to make

3:07

the systems much more capable,

3:09

we don't know how to make them safe.

3:11

How to

3:13

make sure they don't do something we

3:14

will regret.

3:16

And that's the state of the art right

3:18

now. When we look at

3:20

just prediction markets, how soon will

3:22

we get to advanced AI?

3:25

The timelines are very short, couple

3:26

years.

3:28

Two, three years according to prediction

3:30

markets, according to CEOs of top labs.

3:34

And at the same time,

3:36

we don't know how to make sure that the

3:40

systems are aligned with our

3:41

preferences.

3:43

So, we are creating this alien

3:45

intelligence.

3:46

If aliens were coming to Earth and

3:50

you had 3 years to prepare,

3:53

you would be panicking right now.

3:55

But most people don't don't even realize

3:57

this is happening.

4:00

So, some of the counterarguments might

4:01

be, well, these are very, very smart

4:03

people. These are very big companies

4:05

with lots of money. They have a

4:06

obligation and a moral obligation but

4:09

also just

4:10

a legal obligation to make sure they do

4:12

no harm. So, I'm sure it'll be fine. The

4:14

only obligation they have is to make

4:16

money for their investors. That's the

4:17

legal obligation they have. They have no

4:19

moral or ethical obligations. Also,

4:22

according to them, they don't know how

4:24

to do it yet. The state-of-the-art

4:26

answers are, we'll figure it out when we

4:28

get there or AI will help us control

4:30

more advanced AI.

4:33

That's insane.

4:34

In terms of probability, what do you

4:35

think is the probability that something

4:37

goes catastrophically wrong?

4:40

So, nobody can tell you for sure what's

4:42

going to happen. But if you're not in

4:44

charge, you're not controlling it, you

4:46

will not get outcomes you want. The

4:49

space of possibilities is almost

4:50

infinite. The space of outcomes we will

4:53

like is tiny.

4:56

And

4:57

who are you and how long have you been

4:59

working on this?

5:01

I'm a computer scientist by training. I

5:03

have a PhD in computer science and

5:05

engineering.

5:06

I probably started work in AI safety,

5:10

mildly defined as control of bots at the

5:13

time,

5:15

15 years ago.

5:17

15 years ago. So, you've been working on

5:19

AI safety before it was cool. Before the

5:21

term existed. I coined the term AI

5:23

safety. So, you're the founder of the

5:25

term AI safety? The term, yes, not the

5:27

field. There are other people who did

5:29

brilliant work before I got there.

5:31

Why were you thinking about this 15

5:32

years ago? Because most people have only

5:34

been talking about the term AI safety

5:35

for the last two or three years. Yeah,

5:37

it started very mildly just as a

5:40

security project. I was looking at poker

5:43

bots.

5:44

And I realized that the bots are getting

5:46

better and better.

5:48

And if you just project this forward

5:50

enough,

5:51

they're going to get better than us,

5:53

smarter, more capable. And it happened.

5:55

They are playing poker way better than

5:57

average players.

5:59

But

6:00

more generally, it will happen with all

6:01

other domains, all the other cyber

6:03

resources.

6:05

I wanted to make sure AI is a technology

6:07

which is beneficial for everyone. So, I

6:09

started work on making AI safer.

6:14

Was there a particular moment in your

6:15

career where you thought,

6:17

"Oh my god."?

6:19

First 5 years at least, I was working on

6:22

solving this problem. I was convinced we

6:24

can make happen, we can make safe AI.

6:27

That was the goal. But the more I looked

6:29

at it, the more I realized every single

6:31

component of that equation is not

6:33

something we can actually do.

6:35

And the more you zoom in, it's like a

6:37

fractal. You go in and you find 10 more

6:39

problems and then 100 more problems. And

6:43

all of them are not just difficult,

6:45

they're impossible to solve. There is no

6:48

seminal work in this field where like,

6:51

we solved this. We don't have to worry

6:52

about this. There are patches. There are

6:55

little fixes we put in place and quickly

6:57

people find ways to work around them.

7:00

They jailbreak whatever safety

7:02

mechanisms we have. So, while progress

7:05

in

7:06

AI capabilities is exponential or maybe

7:09

even hyper exponential,

7:11

progress in AI safety is linear or

7:13

constant.

7:14

The gap is increasing.

7:16

The gap between

7:18

the the how capable the systems are and

7:21

how well we can control them, predict

7:23

what they're going to do, explain their

7:25

decision-making.

7:26

I think this is quite an important point

7:28

because you said that we're basically

7:30

patching over the issues that we find.

7:32

So, we're developing this this core

7:34

intelligence and then to stop it doing

7:36

things

7:38

or to stop it showing some of its

7:40

unpredictability or its threats,

7:43

the companies that are developing this

7:45

AI are programming in code over the top

7:47

to say, "Okay, don't swear. Don't say

7:49

that rude word. Don't do that bad

7:50

thing." Exactly. And you can look at

7:52

other examples of that. So, HR manuals,

7:55

right? We have those humans, they're

7:57

general intelligences, but you want them

7:59

to behave in a company. So, they have a

8:01

policy. No sexual harassment. No this,

8:03

no that. But if you're smart enough, you

8:06

always find a workaround. So, you're

8:08

just pushing behavior into a different,

8:10

not yet restricted subdomain.

8:14

We We should probably define some terms

8:16

here.

8:17

So, there's narrow intelligence which

8:19

can play chess or whatever. There's

8:21

artificial general intelligence which

8:22

can operate across domains. And then

8:24

super intelligence which is smarter than

8:26

all humans in all domains.

8:27

And where are we?

8:29

So, that's a very fuzzy boundary, right?

8:32

We definitely have many excellent narrow

8:35

systems, no question about it. And they

8:37

are super intelligent in that narrow

8:38

domain. So,

8:40

protein folding is a problem which was

8:42

solved using narrow AI and it's superior

8:44

to all humans in that domain.

8:46

In terms of AGI, again I said, if we

8:49

showed what we have today to a scientist

8:52

from 20 years ago, they would be

8:54

convinced we have full-blown AGI. We

8:56

have systems which can learn. They can

8:58

perform in hundreds of domains and

9:00

they're better than human in many of

9:02

them.

9:03

So, you can argue we have a weak version

9:06

of AGI.

9:08

Now, we don't have super intelligence

9:09

yet. We still have brilliant humans who

9:12

are completely dominating AI, especially

9:14

in science and engineering.

9:16

But that gap is closing so fast. You can

9:19

see

9:20

especially in the domain of mathematics.

9:23

3 years ago,

9:25

large language models couldn't do basic

9:27

algebra.

9:28

Multiplying three-digit numbers was a

9:30

challenge. Now, they're helping with

9:32

mathematical proofs. They're winning

9:34

mathematics Olympiads, competitions.

9:37

They're working on solving millennial

9:39

problems, hardest problems in

9:41

mathematics. So, in 3 years, we closed

9:43

the gap from subhuman performance to

9:46

better than most mathematicians in the

9:48

world. And we see the same process

9:50

happening in science and engineering.

9:54

You have made a series of predictions

9:56

and they correspond to a variety of

9:58

different dates and I have those dates

10:00

in front of me here.

10:02

What is your prediction for the year

10:04

2027?

10:07

We're probably looking at AGI as

10:10

predicted by prediction markets and tops

10:13

of the labs.

10:14

So we'd have artificial general

10:15

intelligence by 2027.

10:18

And how would that make the world

10:19

different

10:21

to how it is now?

10:22

So if you have this concept of a drop-in

10:26

you have free labor, physical and

10:28

cognitive, trillions of dollars of it.

10:30

It makes no sense to hire humans for

10:32

most jobs.

10:34

If I can just get, you know, a $20

10:36

subscription or free model to do what an

10:38

employee does,

10:40

first, anything on a computer will be

10:41

automated.

10:43

And next thing, humanoid robots are

10:45

maybe 5 years behind, so in 5 years all

10:48

the physical labor can also be

10:49

automated.

10:51

So we're looking at a world where we

10:53

have levels of unemployment we've never

10:55

seen before. Not talking about 10%

10:57

unemployment, which is scary, but 99%.

11:01

All you have left is jobs where, for

11:03

whatever reason, you prefer another

11:06

human would do it for you.

11:08

But anything else

11:10

can be fully automated. It doesn't mean

11:12

it will be automated in practice. A lot

11:14

of times

11:15

technology exists, but it's not

11:17

deployed. Video phones were invented in

11:20

the '70s. Nobody had them until iPhones

11:22

came around.

11:25

So we may have a lot more time with jobs

11:28

and with world which looks like this.

11:30

But capability

11:32

to replace most humans in most

11:34

occupations will come very quickly.

11:38

Okay, so let's try and drill down into

11:40

that and and stress test it.

11:43

So

11:46

a podcaster like me,

11:48

would you need a podcaster like me?

11:52

So let's look at what you do. You

11:54

prepare, you

11:57

ask questions, you ask follow-up

11:59

questions, and you look good on camera.

12:01

Thank you so much. Let's see what we can

12:03

do. Large language model today can

12:05

easily read everything I wrote Yeah. and

12:07

have very solid understanding. Better, I

12:10

assume you haven't read every single one

12:11

of my books. I haven't. Yeah. That thing

12:13

would do it.

12:14

It can train on every podcast you ever

12:16

did, so it knows exactly your style, the

12:19

types of questions you ask. It can also

12:22

find correspondence between what worked

12:24

really well, like this type of question

12:26

really increased viewers, this type of

12:29

topic was very promising, so it can

12:31

optimize, I think, better than you can

12:33

because you don't have a data set.

12:35

Of course, visual simulation is trivial

12:38

at this point. So it can you can make a

12:40

video within seconds of me sat here and

12:42

So we can generate videos of you

12:44

interviewing anyone on any topic very

12:47

efficiently and you just have to get

12:51

likeness approval, whatever.

12:53

Are there many jobs that you think would

12:56

remain in a world of AGI? If you're

12:57

saying AGI is potentially going to be

12:59

here, whether it's deployed or not, by

13:00

2027,

13:02

what kind and then okay, so let's take

13:04

out of this any physical labor jobs for

13:07

a second. Are there any jobs that you

13:09

think a human would be able to do better

13:11

in a world of AGI

13:13

still? So that's the question I often

13:15

ask people. In the world with AGI, and I

13:18

think almost immediately we'll get

13:20

superintelligence as a side effect. So

13:22

the question really is, in a world of

13:24

superintelligence, which is defined as

13:26

better than all humans in all domains,

13:29

what can you contribute?

13:31

And so you know better than anyone what

13:33

it's like to be you.

13:35

You know what ice cream tastes to you.

13:38

Can you get paid for that knowledge? Is

13:40

someone interested in that?

13:43

Maybe not, not a big market.

13:45

There are jobs where you want a human.

13:47

Maybe you're rich and you want a human

13:49

accountant for whatever historic

13:51

reasons.

13:53

Old people like

13:55

traditional ways of doing things. Warren

13:58

Buffett would not switch to AI. He would

14:00

use his human accountant.

14:02

But it's a tiny subset of a market.

14:05

Today we have products which are

14:07

man-made

14:08

in US as opposed to mass-produced in

14:11

China, and some people pay more to have

14:13

those.

14:14

But it's a small subset. It's a almost a

14:16

fetish.

14:18

There is no practical reason for it.

14:20

And I think anything you can do on a

14:22

computer could be automated

14:24

using that technology.

14:27

You must hear a lot of rebuttals to when

14:29

this when you say it because people

14:31

experience a huge amount of mental

14:33

discomfort when they hear

14:35

that their job, their career, the thing

14:36

they got a degree in, the thing they

14:38

invested $100,000 into is going to be

14:40

taken away from them. So their natural

14:42

reaction, some for some people is that

14:43

cognitive dissonance that no, you're

14:45

wrong. AI can't be creative. It's not

14:48

this, it's not that. It will never be

14:50

interested in my job. I'll be fine

14:52

because

14:53

you hear these arguments all the time,

14:55

right?

14:55

>> It's really funny. I ask people and I

14:57

ask people in different occupations.

14:59

I'll ask my Uber driver, are you worried

15:01

about self-driving cars? And they go,

15:03

"No. No one can do what I do. I know the

15:06

streets of New York. I can navigate like

15:08

no AI.

15:10

I'm safe." And it's true for any job.

15:12

Professors are saying this to me. Oh,

15:14

nobody can lecture like I do. Like this

15:16

is so special.

15:17

But you understand it's ridiculous. We

15:19

already have self-driving cars replacing

15:21

drivers.

15:23

That is not even a question

15:25

if it's possible. It's like how soon

15:27

before you're fired.

15:30

Yeah, I mean, I've just been in LA

15:31

yesterday and my car drives itself. So I

15:34

get in the car, I set I put in where I

15:36

want to go, and then I don't touch the

15:38

steering wheel or the brake pedals, and

15:39

it takes me from A to B, even if it's an

15:41

hour-long drive without any intervention

15:44

at all. I actually still park it,

15:46

but other than that, I'm not I'm not

15:47

driving the car at all. And then

15:49

obviously in LA we also have Waymo now,

15:51

which means

15:52

you order it on your phone and it shows

15:55

up with no driver in it and takes you to

15:56

where you want to go. Oh, yeah. So it's

15:59

quite clear to see how that is

16:00

potentially a matter of time. For those

16:02

people, cuz we do have some of those

16:04

people listening to this conversation

16:05

right now, that their occupation is

16:07

driving,

16:08

to offer them a I think driving is the

16:10

biggest oc-

16:11

occupation in the world, if I'm correct.

16:15

I I'm pretty sure it is the biggest

16:16

occupation in the world.

16:17

>> of the top ones, yeah.

16:19

What would you say to those people?

16:21

What what should they be doing with

16:22

their lives? What should they should

16:23

they be retraining in something or

16:25

what time frame? So that's the paradigm

16:27

shift here. Before we always said this

16:29

job is going to be automated, retrain to

16:31

do this other job. But if I'm telling

16:33

you that all jobs will be automated,

16:36

then there is no plan B.

16:38

You cannot retrain.

16:41

Look at computer science.

16:44

2 years ago, we told people, learn to

16:46

code. Mhm. You are an artist, you cannot

16:49

make money, learn to code.

16:51

Then we realized, oh, AI kind of knows

16:54

how to code and getting better. Become a

16:56

prompt engineer.

16:58

You can engineer prompts for AIs. It's

17:01

going to be a great job. Get a 4-year

17:02

degree in it. But then we're like, AI is

17:05

way better at designing prompts for

17:06

other AIs than any human.

17:08

So that's gone. So I can't really tell

17:10

you right now, the hottest thing is

17:12

design AI agents for practical

17:14

applications. I guarantee you in a year

17:17

or two it's going to be gone just as

17:18

well.

17:20

So I don't think there is a

17:22

this occupation needs to learn to do

17:24

this instead. I think it's more like,

17:25

where's the humanity when we all lose

17:28

our jobs? What do we do? What do we do

17:31

financially?

17:32

Who's paying for us?

17:34

And what do we do in terms of

17:36

meaning? What do I do with my extra 60,

17:40

80 hours a week?

17:42

You've thought around this corner,

17:44

haven't you?

17:45

A little bit.

17:46

What is around that corner in your view?

17:49

So the economic part seems easy. If you

17:51

create a lot of free labor, you have a

17:53

lot of free wealth, abundance, things

17:56

which are right now

17:57

not very affordable become dirt cheap,

18:00

and so you can provide for everyone's

18:01

basic needs. Some people say you can

18:03

provide

18:06

beyond basic needs. You can provide very

18:09

good existence for everyone. The hard

18:11

problem

18:12

what do you do with all that free time?

18:14

For a lot of people, their jobs are what

18:17

gives them meaning in their lives, so

18:19

they would

18:20

retire or do early retirement. And for

18:24

so many people who hate their jobs,

18:26

they'll be very happy not working. But

18:28

now you have people who are chilling all

18:30

day.

18:31

What happens to society? How does that

18:33

impact crime rate, pregnancy rate, all

18:36

sorts of issues?

18:37

Nobody thinks about. Governments don't

18:39

have programs prepared to deal with 99%

18:43

unemployment.

18:47

What do you think that world looks like?

18:50

Again, I I think

18:52

>> you going to be doing? very important

18:53

part to understand here is the

18:56

unpredictability of it.

18:58

We cannot predict what a smarter than us

19:00

system will do.

19:02

And the point when we get to that is

19:04

often called singularity, by analogy

19:06

with physical singularity. You cannot

19:09

see beyond the event horizon. I can tell

19:11

you what I think might happen, but

19:13

that's my prediction. It is not what

19:16

actually is going to happen because I

19:18

just don't have cognitive ability to

19:20

predict a much smarter agent impacting

19:23

this world.

19:25

When you read science fiction,

19:27

there is never a superintelligence in it

19:29

actually doing anything because nobody

19:31

can write believable science fiction at

19:33

that level. They either banned AI, like

19:36

Dune, because this way you can avoid

19:38

writing about it, or it's like Star

19:40

Wars. You have this really dumb bots,

19:43

but not nothing superintelligent ever.

19:45

Cuz by definition, you cannot predict at

19:48

that level.

19:50

Because by definition of it being

19:51

superintelligent, it will make its own

19:52

mind up. By definition, if it was

19:55

something you could predict, you would

19:56

be operating at the same level of

19:58

intelligence, violating our assumption

20:00

that it is smarter than you.

20:02

If I'm playing chess with super

20:03

intelligence and I can predict every

20:05

move, I'm playing at that level. It's

20:07

kind of like my French bulldog trying to

20:08

predict

20:10

exactly what I'm thinking and what I'm

20:12

going to do. That's a good cognitive

20:13

gap. And it's not just he can predict

20:15

you going to work, you coming back, but

20:17

he cannot understand why you doing a

20:18

podcast. That is something completely

20:20

outside of his model of the world.

20:25

Yeah, he doesn't even know that I go to

20:26

work. He just sees that I leave the

20:27

house and doesn't know where I go.

20:30

By food for him. What's the most

20:32

persuasive argument against

20:34

your own perspective here? That we will

20:37

not have unemployment due to advanced

20:39

technology?

20:41

That there won't be this

20:43

French bulldog human gap in

20:46

understanding and

20:49

I guess like power and control.

20:53

So, some people think that we can

20:55

enhance human minds either through

20:57

combination with hardware, so something

20:59

like Neuralink, or through genetic

21:02

engineering to where we make smarter

21:04

humans.

21:06

Yeah. It may give us a little more

21:09

intelligence. I don't think we are still

21:11

competitive in biological form with

21:13

silicon form. Silicon substrate is much

21:16

more capable for intelligence. It's

21:18

faster. It's more resilient, more energy

21:21

efficient in many ways. Which is what

21:23

computers are made out of the brain.

21:25

Yeah.

21:26

So, I don't think we can keep up just

21:28

with improving our biology. Some people

21:31

think maybe, and this is very

21:32

speculative, we can upload our minds

21:35

into computers.

21:36

So, scan your brain, connectome of your

21:39

brain, and have a simulation running on

21:42

a computer and you can speed it up, give

21:44

it more capabilities. But to me, that

21:46

feels like you no longer exist. We just

21:48

created software by different means and

21:50

now you have AI based on biology and AI

21:54

based on some other forms of training.

21:57

You can have evolutionary algorithms.

21:59

You can have many paths to reach AGI.

22:01

But at the end, none of them are humans.

22:04

I have a another date here, which is

22:09

2030.

22:11

What's your prediction for 2030? What

22:13

will the world look like?

22:15

So, we probably will have

22:17

humanoid robots with enough flexibility,

22:20

dexterity to compete with humans in all

22:23

domains, including plumbers.

22:25

We can make artificial plumbers.

22:28

Not the plumbers. We That was That felt

22:30

like the last

22:32

bastion of

22:33

human employment. So, 2030, 5 years from

22:36

now, humanoid robots So, many of the

22:38

companies, the leading companies,

22:39

including Tesla, are developing humanoid

22:41

robots

22:42

at light speed and they're getting

22:43

increasingly more effective. And these

22:46

humanoid robots will be able to move

22:47

through physical space,

22:49

for you know, make an omelet,

22:52

do anything humans can do, but obviously

22:54

have

22:56

be connected to AI as well.

22:58

So, they can think, talk,

23:00

Like they're controlled by AI. They're

23:02

always connected to the network, so they

23:04

are already dominating in many ways.

23:08

Our world will look remarkably different

23:11

when humanoid robots are functional and

23:13

effective. Because that's really when,

23:16

you know, I start to think, "Crap." Like

23:18

the combination of intelligence and

23:21

physical ability

23:23

is really really doesn't leave much,

23:26

does it, for

23:27

us um

23:29

human beings.

23:31

Not much. So, today, if you have

23:33

intelligence through internet, you can

23:34

hire humans to do your bidding for you.

23:36

You can pay them in Bitcoin, so you can

23:38

have bodies, just not directly

23:41

controlling them. So, it's not a huge

23:43

game changer to add direct control of

23:46

physical bodies. Intelligence is where

23:48

it's at. The important component is

23:50

definitely higher ability to optimize,

23:53

to solve problems, to find patterns

23:55

people cannot see.

23:57

And then by 2045,

24:01

I guess the world looks even even more

24:03

um

24:05

which is 20 years from now. So, if it's

24:07

still around, If it's still around,

24:09

>> Ray Kurzweil predicts that that's the

24:11

year for the singularity. That's the

24:13

year where progress becomes so fast, so

24:16

this AI doing science and engineering

24:19

work makes improvements so quickly we

24:21

cannot keep up anymore. That's the

24:23

definition of singularity, point beyond

24:25

which we cannot see, understand,

24:28

predict.

24:29

See, understand, predict the

24:31

intelligence itself or

24:33

What is happening in the world? The

24:34

technology is being developed. So, right

24:36

now, if I have an iPhone, I can look

24:38

forward to a new one coming out next

24:40

year and I'll understand it has slightly

24:42

better camera. Imagine now this process

24:45

of researching and developing this phone

24:47

is automated. It happens every 6 months,

24:50

every 3 every month, week, day, hour,

24:53

minute, second.

24:54

You cannot keep up with

24:56

30 iterations of iPhone in 1 day. You

24:59

don't understand what capabilities it

25:01

has,

25:02

what

25:04

proper controls are. It just escapes

25:06

you. Right now, it's hard for any

25:08

researcher in AI to keep up with the

25:10

state of the art. While I was doing this

25:13

interview with you, a new model came out

25:15

and I will no longer know what the state

25:17

of the art is.

25:18

Every day, as a percentage of total

25:20

knowledge, I get dumber.

25:22

I may still know more because I keep

25:23

reading, but as a percentage of overall

25:26

knowledge, we all getting dumber.

25:29

And when you take it to extreme values,

25:33

you have zero knowledge, zero

25:34

understanding of the world around you.

25:37

Some of the arguments against this

25:39

eventuality are that when you look at

25:41

other technologies like the Industrial

25:43

Revolution, people just found new ways

25:46

to

25:47

to work and new careers that we could

25:50

never have imagined at the time were

25:51

created.

25:52

How do you respond to that in a world of

25:54

super intelligence?

25:56

It's a paradigm shift. We always had

25:58

tools, new tools which allowed some job

26:01

to be done more efficiently. So, instead

26:02

of having 10 workers, you could have two

26:04

workers and eight workers had to find a

26:07

new job. And there was another job. Now

26:09

you can supervise these workers or do

26:11

something cool. If you creating a meta

26:15

invention, you inventing intelligence,

26:17

you inventing a worker, an agent, then

26:20

you can apply that agent to the new job.

26:23

There is not a job which cannot be

26:25

automated. That never happened before.

26:28

All the inventions we previously had

26:30

were kind of

26:31

a tool for doing something. So, we

26:33

invented fire. Huge game changer. But

26:36

that's it. It stops with fire. We invent

26:39

a wheel. Same idea. Huge implications,

26:42

but wheel itself is not an inventor.

26:45

Here we are inventing

26:47

a replacement for human mind, a new

26:50

inventor capable of doing new

26:52

inventions. It's the last invention we

26:54

ever have to make. At that point, it

26:56

takes over and the process of doing

26:58

science, research, even ethics research,

27:02

morals, all that is automated at that

27:04

point.

27:06

Do you sleep well at night? Really well.

27:09

Even though you you spent the last 15,

27:12

20 years of your life working on AI

27:14

safety and it's suddenly

27:16

among us in a in a way that I don't

27:19

think anyone could have predicted 5

27:20

years ago. When I say among us, I really

27:21

mean that the amount of funding and

27:23

talent that is now focused on reaching

27:26

super intelligence faster has made it

27:28

feel more inevitable and more

27:30

soon

27:32

than any of us could have possibly

27:34

imagined.

27:35

We as humans have this built-in bias

27:37

about not thinking about really bad

27:39

outcomes and things we cannot prevent.

27:42

So, all of us are dying.

27:44

Your kids are dying, your parents are

27:46

dying, everyone's dying, but you still

27:48

sleep well, you still go on with your

27:50

day. Even 95-year-olds are still doing

27:53

games and playing golf and whatnot, cuz

27:56

we have this ability to not think about

27:59

the worst outcomes, especially if we

28:01

cannot actually modify the outcome. So,

28:04

that's the same

28:05

infrastructure being used for this.

28:07

Yeah, there is

28:09

humanity level

28:11

death-like event. We happening to be

28:14

close to it probably, but unless I can

28:18

do something about it, I I can just keep

28:21

enjoying my life. In fact, maybe knowing

28:24

that you have limited amount of time

28:25

left gives you more reason to have a

28:27

better life. You cannot waste any.

28:30

And that's the survival trait of

28:32

evolution, I guess, because those of my

28:34

ancestors that spent all their time

28:35

worrying

28:36

wouldn't have spent enough time having

28:38

babies and hunting to survive.

28:40

>> Suicidal ideation. People who really

28:42

start thinking about how horrible the

28:43

world is usually escape pretty soon.

28:46

Mhm.

28:51

One of the You co-authored this paper

28:54

um analyzing the key arguments people

28:56

make against the importance of AI

28:57

safety.

28:58

And one of the arguments in there is

29:00

that there's other things that are of

29:02

bigger importance right now. It might be

29:04

world wars, it could be nuclear

29:05

containment, it could be other things.

29:07

There's other things that the

29:08

governments and podcasters like me

29:10

should be talking about that are more

29:11

important. What's your rebuttal to that

29:14

argument?

29:15

>> So, super intelligence is a meta

29:17

solution. If we get super intelligence

29:20

right, it will help us with climate

29:22

change, it will help us with wars, it

29:24

can solve all the other existential

29:26

risks. If we don't get it right, it

29:30

dominates. If climate change will take

29:32

100 years to boil us alive and super

29:35

intelligence kills everyone in five, I

29:37

don't have to worry about climate

29:38

change. So, either way, either it solves

29:41

it for me or it's not an issue.

29:44

So, you think it's the most important

29:45

thing to be working on? Without

29:47

question, there is nothing more

29:48

important than getting this right.

29:54

And I know everyone says it. You take

29:56

any class but you take English

29:57

professor's class and he tells you this

29:59

is the most important class you'll ever

30:00

take. But

30:02

you can see the meta level differences

30:05

with this one.

30:07

Another argument in that paper is that

30:09

we will be in control and that the

30:11

danger is not AI.

30:13

This particular argument asserts that AI

30:14

is just a tool. Humans are the real

30:16

actors that present danger and we can

30:19

always maintain control by simply

30:21

turning it off. Can't we just pull the

30:23

plug out? I see that every time we have

30:24

a conversation on the show about AI,

30:26

someone says can't we just unplug it?

30:27

Yeah, I get those comments on every

30:29

podcast I make and I always want to like

30:31

get in touch with the guy and say this

30:33

is brilliant. I never thought of it.

30:35

We're going to write a paper together

30:36

and get a Nobel Prize for it. This is

30:38

like let's do it.

30:40

Because it's so silly. Like can you turn

30:42

off a virus? You have a computer virus

30:43

you don't like. You turn it off.

30:46

How about Bitcoin? Turn off Bitcoin

30:47

network.

30:48

Go ahead. I'll wait.

30:50

This is silly. Those are distributed

30:51

systems. You cannot turn them off and on

30:54

top of it they're smarter than you. They

30:55

made multiple backups. They predicted

30:58

what you're going to do. They will turn

30:59

you off before you can turn them off.

31:02

The idea that we will be in control

31:05

applies only to pre super intelligence

31:08

levels. Basically what we have today.

31:09

Today humans with AI tools are

31:12

dangerous. They can be hackers,

31:13

malevolent actors. Absolutely. But the

31:16

moment super intelligence becomes

31:18

smarter, dominates, they no longer be

31:20

important part of that equation. It is

31:22

the higher intelligence I'm concerned

31:24

about, not the human who

31:27

may add additional malevolent payload

31:29

but at the end still doesn't control it.

31:32

It is tempting

31:35

to

31:36

follow your the next argument that I saw

31:38

in that paper which basically says

31:39

listen

31:40

this is inevitable.

31:42

So there's no point fighting against it

31:44

because there's really no hope here. So

31:46

we should probably give up even trying

31:48

and be faithful that it will work itself

31:50

out.

31:51

Because everything you've said sounds

31:53

really inevitable.

31:54

And if with China working on it, I'm

31:56

sure Putin's got some secret division.

31:57

I'm sure Iran are doing some bits and

31:59

pieces. Every European country is trying

32:02

to get ahead of AI. The United States is

32:04

leading the way.

32:05

So it's it's inevitable. So we probably

32:08

should just have faith and pray.

32:11

Praying is always good but incentives

32:13

matter.

32:14

If you

32:15

looking at what drives these people. So

32:18

yes, money is important. So there is a

32:20

lot of money in that space and so

32:22

everyone's trying to be there and

32:24

develop this technology. But if they

32:26

truly understand the argument, they

32:28

understand that you will be dead.

32:31

No amount of money will be useful to

32:32

you.

32:33

Then incentives switch. They would want

32:35

to not be dead. A lot of them are young

32:37

people, rich people. They have their

32:39

whole lives ahead of them. I think they

32:41

would be better off not building

32:43

advanced super intelligence,

32:45

concentrating on narrow AI tools for

32:48

solving specific problems. Okay, my

32:50

company cures breast cancer. That's all.

32:53

We make billions of dollars. Everyone's

32:54

happy. Everyone benefits.

32:57

It's a win.

32:59

We are still in control today. It's not

33:01

over until it's over. We can decide not

33:04

to build general super intelligences.

33:07

I mean the United States might be able

33:09

to conjure up enough enthusiasm for

33:12

that. But if the United States doesn't

33:14

build general super intelligences, then

33:16

China are going to have the big

33:17

advantage, right?

33:18

So right now at those levels, whoever

33:21

has more advanced AI has more advanced

33:23

military. No question. We see it with

33:25

existing conflicts. But the moment you

33:27

switch to super intelligence and control

33:30

super intelligence, it doesn't matter

33:31

who builds it, us or them. And if they

33:34

understand this argument, they also

33:36

would not build it. It's a mutually

33:38

assured destruction on both ends.

33:41

Is this technology different than say

33:43

nuclear weapons which require a huge

33:45

amount of investment and you have to

33:47

like enrich the uranium and you need

33:51

billions of dollars potentially to even

33:54

build a nuclear weapon.

33:56

But it feels like this technology is

33:58

much cheaper to get to super

34:00

intelligence potentially or at least it

34:02

will become cheaper. I wonder if it's

34:04

possible that some some guy, some

34:06

startup is going to be able to build

34:08

super intelligence in

34:10

you know, a couple of years without the

34:11

need of

34:12

you know, billions of dollars of compute

34:14

or or electricity power. That's a great

34:16

point. So every year it becomes cheaper

34:18

and cheaper to train sufficiently large

34:20

model. If today it would take a trillion

34:23

dollars to build super intelligence,

34:24

next year it could be 100 billion and so

34:27

on. At some point a guy in a laptop

34:29

could do it.

34:31

But you don't want to wait four years to

34:33

make it affordable. So that's why so

34:35

much money is pouring in. Somebody wants

34:37

to get there this year and lock in all

34:39

the winnings. Litecoin level award.

34:43

So in that regard they're both very

34:45

expensive projects like Manhattan level

34:48

projects. Which is the nuclear bomb

34:50

project.

34:51

>> Right.

34:51

The difference between the two

34:53

technologies is that nuclear weapons are

34:55

still tools.

34:57

Some dictator, some country, someone has

35:00

to decide to use them, deploy them.

35:03

Whereas super intelligence is not a is

35:05

not a tool. It's an agent.

35:07

It makes its own decisions and no one is

35:09

controlling it. I cannot take out this

35:10

dictator and now super intelligence is

35:12

safe.

35:14

So that's a fundamental difference to

35:15

me.

35:17

But if you're saying that it is going to

35:18

get

35:19

incrementally cheaper like I think it's

35:21

Moore's law, isn't it? The technology

35:22

gets cheaper. It does.

35:24

Then there is a future where some guy on

35:27

his laptop is going to be able to create

35:28

super intelligence without

35:30

oversight or regulation or employees,

35:32

etc. Yeah, that's why a lot of people

35:34

suggesting we need to build something

35:36

like um

35:38

surveillance planet where you are

35:42

monitoring who's doing what and you're

35:44

trying to prevent people from doing it.

35:46

Do I think it's feasible? No. At some

35:48

point it becomes so affordable and so

35:50

trivial that it just will happen. But at

35:53

this point we're trying to get more

35:54

time. We don't want it to happen in five

35:56

years. We want it to happen in 50 years.

36:01

I mean that's not very hopeful. Depends

36:03

on how old you are.

36:05

Depends on how old you are.

36:08

I mean

36:09

if you're saying that

36:10

you believe in the future people will be

36:12

able to make super intelligence

36:14

without the resources that are required

36:16

today, then it is just a matter of time.

36:18

Yeah, but so will be true for many other

36:21

technologies. We're getting much better

36:22

in synthetic biology where today someone

36:25

with a bachelor's degree in biology can

36:27

probably create a new virus.

36:29

This will also become cheaper. Other

36:31

technologies like that. So we are

36:34

approaching a point where it's very

36:36

difficult to make sure no technological

36:39

breakthrough is the last one. So

36:42

essentially in many directions we have

36:45

this

36:46

pattern of making it easier in terms of

36:49

resources, in terms of intelligence to

36:51

destroy the world.

36:52

If you look at I don't know, 500 years

36:55

ago, the worst dictator with all the

36:57

resources could kill couple million

36:59

people. He couldn't destroy the world.

37:01

Now we know nuclear weapons we can blow

37:03

up the whole planet multiple times over.

37:06

Synthetic biology we saw with COVID, you

37:08

can very easily create a combination

37:12

virus which impacts billions of people.

37:15

And all those things becoming easier to

37:17

do.

37:18

In the near term you talk about

37:20

extinction being a real risk, human

37:21

extinction being a real risk. Of all the

37:23

the pathways to human extinction that

37:25

you think are

37:27

most likely, what what is the leading

37:29

pathway? Because I know you talk about

37:31

there being some issue pre-deployment of

37:33

these AI tools like you know, someone

37:35

makes a mistake when they're

37:38

designing a model or other issues

37:41

post-deployment. When I say

37:42

post-deployment, I mean once the chat

37:44

GPT or something, an

37:46

agent is released into the world and

37:47

someone hacking into it and changing it

37:49

and reprogram reprogramming it to be

37:51

malicious. Of all these potential paths

37:54

to human extinction, which one do you

37:56

think is the highest probability?

37:59

So I can only talk about the ones I can

38:01

predict myself. So I can predict even

38:03

before we get a super intelligence,

38:05

someone will create a very advanced

38:06

biological tool, create a novel virus

38:09

and that virus gets everyone or most

38:11

everyone.

38:12

I can

38:13

envision it. I can understand the

38:15

pathway. I can say that. So just

38:17

assuming on that then, that would be

38:19

using an AI to make a virus and then

38:21

releasing it. Yeah.

38:22

And would that be

38:24

intentional or

38:26

There is a lot of psychopaths, a lot of

38:29

terrorists, a lot of doomsday cults.

38:31

We've seen historically again, they

38:33

tried to kill as many people as they

38:35

can. They usually fail. They kill

38:36

hundreds of thousands.

38:38

But if they get technology to kill

38:39

millions or billions, they would do that

38:41

gladly.

38:44

The point I'm trying to emphasize is

38:47

that it doesn't matter what I can come

38:48

up with. I am not a malevolent actor

38:51

you're trying to defeat here. It's the

38:53

super intelligence which can come up

38:54

with completely novel ways of doing it.

38:57

Again, you brought up example of your

38:59

dog.

39:01

Your dog cannot understand all the ways

39:03

you can take it out.

39:06

It can maybe think you'll bite it to

39:08

death or something. But that's all.

39:10

Whereas you have

39:12

infinite supply of resources.

39:15

So if I asked your dog exactly how

39:18

you're going to take it out, it would

39:19

not give you a meaningful answer. It can

39:21

talk about biting.

39:23

And this is what we know. We know

39:25

viruses. We experienced viruses. We can

39:27

talk about them. But what

39:31

an AI system capable of doing novel

39:33

physics research can come up with is

39:35

beyond me.

39:37

One of the things that I think most

39:38

people don't understand is how little we

39:40

understand about how these AIs are

39:43

actually working. Cuz one would assume,

39:45

you know, with computers, we kind of

39:46

understand how a computer works. We we

39:48

know that it's doing this and then this

39:49

and it's running on code. But,

39:52

from reading your work, you describe it

39:54

as being a black box. We actually So, in

39:57

the context of something like ChatGPT or

39:59

an AI we know, you're telling me that

40:01

the people that have built that tool

40:02

don't actually know

40:04

what's going on inside there.

40:07

That's exactly right. So, even people

40:08

making those systems have to run

40:11

experiments on their product to learn

40:13

what it's capable of. So, they train it

40:16

by giving it all of data, let's say all

40:18

of internet text.

40:20

They run it on a lot of computers to

40:22

learn patterns in that text. And then we

40:25

start experimenting with that model. Oh,

40:27

do you speak French? Or, can you do

40:29

mathematics? Or, are you lying to me

40:31

now? And so, maybe it takes a year to

40:34

train it and then 6 months to get some

40:37

fundamentals about what it's capable of.

40:40

Some safety overhead.

40:43

But, we still discover new capabilities

40:45

in old models. If you ask a question in

40:48

a different way, it becomes smarter.

40:51

So, it's

40:52

no longer

40:54

engineering how it was the first 50

40:56

years where someone was a knowledge

40:58

engineer programming an expert system AI

41:01

to do specific things. It's a science.

41:03

We are creating this artifact, growing

41:06

it. It's like a alien plant. And then we

41:09

study it to see what it's doing.

41:11

And just like with plants, we don't have

41:13

100% accurate knowledge of biology.

41:16

We don't have full knowledge here. We

41:17

kind of know some patterns. We know,

41:20

okay, if we add more compute, it gets

41:22

smarter most of the time. But,

41:24

nobody can tell you precisely what the

41:26

outcome is going to be given a set of

41:29

inputs.

41:31

I've watched so many entrepreneurs treat

41:32

sales like a performance problem. When

41:34

it's often down to visibility. Because

41:36

when you can't see what's happening in

41:38

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41:40

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41:42

what's moving, you can't improve

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42:29

get a 30-day free trial. What do you

42:32

make of OpenAI and Sam Altman and what

42:35

they're doing?

42:36

And obviously, you're aware that one of

42:38

the co-founders, was it um This was Ilya

42:40

Sutskever?

42:42

Ilya yeah. Ilya left and he started a a

42:44

new company called Superintelligence

42:46

Safety. Superintelligence Safety.

42:48

>> AI safety wasn't challenging enough, he

42:50

decided to just jump right to the hard

42:52

problem.

42:54

As an onlooker, when you see that people

42:57

are leaving OpenAI to to start

43:00

superintelligent safety companies,

43:04

what was your read on that situation?

43:06

So, a lot of people who worked with Sam

43:10

said that maybe he's not the most direct

43:13

person in terms of being honest with

43:15

them and they had concerns about his

43:18

views on safety.

43:20

That's part of it. So, they wanted more

43:22

control, they wanted more concentration

43:25

on safety. But, also it seems that

43:27

anyone who leaves that company and

43:29

starts a new one gets a $20 valuation

43:32

just for having it started. You don't

43:34

have a product, you don't have

43:35

customers, but

43:36

if you want to make many billions of

43:38

dollars, just do that. So, it seems like

43:41

a very rational thing to do for anyone

43:43

who can.

43:44

So, I'm not surprised that there is a

43:46

lot of attrition.

43:48

Meeting him in person, he's super nice,

43:51

very smart.

43:53

Absolutely

43:55

perfect public interface. You see him

43:57

testify in the Senate, he says the right

44:00

thing to the senators. You see him talk

44:02

to the investors, they get the right

44:04

message.

44:05

But, if you look at what people who know

44:07

him personally are saying,

44:10

it's probably not the right person to be

44:13

controlling a project of that impact.

44:17

Why?

44:19

He puts safety second.

44:23

Second to

44:25

winning this race to superintelligence,

44:27

being the guy who created God and

44:29

controlling light cone of the universe.

44:31

He's worse.

44:34

Do you suspect that's what he's driven

44:35

by is by the the legacy of being an

44:37

impactful person that did a

44:41

remarkable thing versus

44:43

the consequence that that might have on

44:45

for society?

44:46

Because it's interesting that his his

44:47

other startup is Worldcoin, which is

44:49

basically a platform to create universal

44:51

basic income. I a platform to give us

44:54

income in a world where

44:57

people don't have jobs anymore. So, on

44:58

one hand you're creating an AI company,

44:59

on the other hand you're creating a

45:00

company that is preparing for people to

45:02

not have employment.

45:05

It also has other

45:07

properties. It keeps track of everyone's

45:10

biometrics.

45:12

It

45:13

keeps you in charge of a world's

45:15

economy, world's wealth. They are

45:16

retaining a large portion of Worldcoins.

45:20

So, I I think it's kind of very

45:23

reasonable part to integrate with world

45:26

dominance. If you have a

45:28

superintelligence system and you control

45:30

money,

45:32

you're doing well.

45:36

Why would someone want world dominance?

45:40

People have different levels of

45:41

ambition. Then you are very young person

45:43

with billions of dollars, fame, you

45:45

start looking for more ambitious

45:47

projects. Some people want to go to

45:49

Mars, others want to control light cone

45:51

of the universe.

45:53

What What did you say, light cone of the

45:55

universe?

45:55

>> Light cone. So, every part of the

45:58

universe light can reach from this

46:00

point, meaning anything accessible you

46:01

want to grab and

46:03

bring into your control. You think Sam

46:05

Altman wants to control

46:07

every part of the universe?

46:10

I I suspect he might, yes.

46:12

Hmm.

46:13

It doesn't mean he doesn't want a side

46:15

effect of it being a very beneficial

46:17

technology which makes all the humans

46:19

happy.

46:20

Happy humans are good for control.

46:24

If you had to guess

46:27

what the world looks like in

46:30

2100,

46:32

if you had to guess,

46:35

it's either

46:36

free of human existence or it's

46:39

completely not comprehensible to someone

46:41

like us.

46:44

It's one of those extremes. So, there's

46:46

either no humans It's basically the

46:48

world is destroyed or it's so different

46:51

that I cannot envision those

46:54

predictions.

46:56

What can be done to turn this ship to a

47:00

more certain positive outcome at this

47:02

point?

47:04

Is Is there still things that we can do

47:06

or is it too late? So, I believe in

47:08

personal self-interest. If people

47:11

realize that doing this thing is really

47:13

bad for them personally, they will not

47:15

do it. So, our job is to convince

47:16

everyone with any power in this space

47:19

creating this technology working for

47:20

these companies,

47:22

they are doing something very bad

47:24

for them. Not just forget about eight

47:27

billion people you're experimenting on

47:28

with no permission,

47:30

no consent, you will not be happy with

47:33

the outcome. If we can get everyone to

47:35

understand that's the default, and it's

47:37

not just me saying it. You had Geoff

47:39

Hinton on

47:40

him. Nobel Prize winner, founder of the

47:42

whole machine learning space. He says

47:44

the same thing. Bengio, dozens of

47:46

others, top scholars. We had a statement

47:49

about dangers of AI signed by thousands

47:51

of scholars, computer scientists. This

47:54

is basically what we think right now and

47:57

we need to make it a universal. No one

47:59

should disagree with this. And then, we

48:01

may actually make good decisions about

48:04

what technology to build. It doesn't

48:06

guarantee long-term safety for humanity,

48:09

but it means we're not trying to get

48:11

there as soon as possible to the worst

48:12

possible outcome.

48:14

And do you Are you hopeful that that's

48:16

even possible?

48:18

I want to try. We have no choice but to

48:21

try.

48:22

And what would need to happen and who

48:24

would need to act? What is it government

48:25

legislation? Is it

48:27

Unfortunately, I don't think making it

48:29

illegal is sufficient. There are

48:31

different jurisdictions, there is, you

48:33

know, loopholes. And what are you going

48:35

to do if somebody does it? You're going

48:37

to fine them for destroying humanity?

48:38

Like very steep fines for it? Like what

48:40

are you going to do? It's not

48:41

enforceable. If they do create it, now

48:44

the superintelligence is in charge. So,

48:46

the judicial system we have is not

48:48

impactful. And all the punishments we

48:51

have are designed for punishing humans.

48:53

Prisons, capital punishment doesn't

48:55

apply to AI.

48:56

Here's the problem I have is when I have

48:57

these conversations, I never feel like I

48:59

walk away with

49:03

hope that something's going to go well.

49:05

And what I mean by that is I never feel

49:07

like I walk away with clear some kind of

49:10

a clear set of actions that can course

49:12

correct what might happen here. So, what

49:15

should What should I do? What should the

49:17

person sat at home listening to this do?

49:19

You You talked to a lot of people who

49:21

are building this technology. Mhm.

49:24

Ask them precisely to explain some of

49:28

those things they claim to be

49:29

impossible, how they solved it or going

49:31

to solve it before they get to where

49:33

they're going. Do you know, I don't

49:35

think Sam Altman wants to talk to me.

49:37

I don't know. He seems to go on a lot of

49:39

podcasts. Maybe he does.

49:40

>> wants to go on mine.

49:43

I wonder why that is.

49:47

I'd love to speak to him, but I don't I

49:48

don't think he wants to

49:50

I don't think he wants me to

49:54

interview him. Have an open challenge.

49:56

Maybe money is not the incentive, but

49:58

whatever attracts people like that,

50:00

whoever can convince you that it's

50:02

possible to control and make safe super

50:04

intelligence gets the prize. They come

50:07

on your show and prove their case.

50:10

Anyone. If no one claims the prize or

50:12

even accepts the challenge after a few

50:14

years, maybe we don't have anyone with

50:16

solutions.

50:17

We have companies valued again at

50:20

billions and billions of dollars working

50:21

on safe super intelligence.

50:24

We haven't seen their output yet.

50:29

Yeah, I'd like to speak to Ilya as well

50:31

cuz I know he's he's working on safe

50:32

super intelligence, so

50:34

Notice the pattern too. If you look at

50:36

history of AI safety organizations

50:39

or

50:40

departments within companies,

50:42

they usually start well, very ambitious,

50:44

and then they fail and disappear.

50:47

So,

50:48

OpenAI had super intelligence alignment

50:51

team.

50:52

The day they announced it, I think they

50:54

said we're going to solve it in 4 years.

50:56

Like half a year later they canceled the

50:58

team.

50:59

And there is dozens of similar examples.

51:02

Leading

51:04

a perfect safety for super intelligence,

51:06

perpetual safety as it keeps improving,

51:08

modifying, interacting with people.

51:11

You're never going to get there. It's

51:12

impossible.

51:14

There is a big difference between

51:16

difficult problems in computer science

51:18

and be complete problems and impossible

51:20

problems. And I think control indefinite

51:23

control of super intelligence is such a

51:25

problem. So, what's the point trying

51:27

then if it's impossible? Well, I'm

51:29

trying to prove that it is specifically

51:31

that. Once we establish something is

51:32

impossible, fewer people will waste

51:34

their time claiming they can do it and

51:36

find looking for money. So many people

51:38

go and give me a billion dollars in 2

51:40

years and I'll solve it for you.

51:42

Well, I don't think you will.

51:44

But people aren't going to stop striving

51:46

towards it. So, if there's no attempts

51:48

to

51:49

make it safe and there's more people

51:51

increasingly striving towards it, then

51:53

it's inevitable. But it changes what we

51:55

do. If we know that it's impossible to

51:57

make it right, to make it safe, then

51:59

this direct path of just build it as

52:01

soon as you can become suicide mission.

52:03

Hopefully fewer people will pursue that.

52:06

They may go in other directions like

52:08

again,

52:09

I'm a scientist, I'm an engineer. I love

52:11

AI. I love technology. I use it all the

52:13

time. Build useful tools. Stop building

52:16

agents.

52:17

Build narrow super intelligence, not a

52:19

general one. I'm not saying you

52:21

shouldn't make billions of dollars. I

52:22

love billions of dollars.

52:25

But

52:26

don't kill everyone, yourself included.

52:33

They don't think they're going to

52:34

though.

52:35

Then tell us why.

52:37

I hear things about intuition. I hear

52:39

things about we'll solve it later. Tell

52:41

me specifically in scientific terms.

52:42

Publish a peer-reviewed paper explaining

52:45

how you're going to control super

52:46

intelligence.

52:48

It's strange. It's strange to it's

52:49

strange to even bother if there was even

52:51

a 1% chance of human extinction. It's

52:53

strange to do something. Like if there

52:54

was a 1% chance Someone told me there

52:56

was a 1% chance that if I got in a car,

53:00

I might not I might not be alive, I

53:02

would not get in the car. If you told me

53:03

there was a 1% chance that if I drank

53:05

whatever liquid is in this cup right

53:07

now, I might die, I would not drink the

53:08

liquid. Even if there was

53:12

a billion dollars

53:14

if I survived. So, the 99% chance is I

53:16

get a billion dollars, the 1% is I die.

53:17

I wouldn't drink it. I wouldn't take the

53:19

chance. It's worse than that. Not just

53:21

you die, everyone dies. Yeah. Yeah. Now,

53:25

would we let you drink it at any odds?

53:27

That's for us to decide. You don't get

53:29

to make that choice for us.

53:31

To get consent from human subjects,

53:34

you need them to comprehend what they

53:36

are consenting to.

53:38

If those systems are unexplainable,

53:40

unpredictable, how can they consent?

53:42

They don't know what they are consenting

53:43

to. Mhm.

53:44

So, it's impossible to get consent by

53:47

definition.

53:48

So, this experiment can never be run

53:49

ethically.

53:50

By definition, they are doing unethical

53:53

experimentation on human subjects. Do

53:55

you think people should be protesting?

53:57

There are people protesting. There is

53:59

Stop AI. There is Pause AI. They block

54:01

offices of OpenAI. They do it weekly,

54:04

monthly. There are quite a few actions

54:06

and they're recruiting new people. You

54:08

think more people should be protesting?

54:10

Do you think that's an effective

54:11

solution?

54:12

If you can get it to a large enough

54:14

scale to where majority of population is

54:17

participating, it would be impactful. I

54:19

don't know if they can scale from

54:20

current numbers to that, but I support

54:23

everyone trying everything peacefully

54:25

and legally.

54:27

And for the for the person listening at

54:28

home, what should they what should they

54:30

be doing? What what

54:31

cuz they they don't want to feel

54:32

powerless. None of us want to feel

54:34

powerless.

54:35

So, it depends on what scale we are

54:37

asking about time scale. I was saying

54:40

like this year your kid goes to college,

54:41

what major to pick? Should they go to

54:43

college at all? Yeah. Should you switch

54:45

jobs? Should you go into certain

54:47

industries? Those questions we can

54:48

answer. We can talk about immediate

54:50

future.

54:51

What should you do in 5 years with

54:55

this being created? For an average

54:56

person, not much. Just like they can't

54:59

influence World War III nuclear

55:01

holocaust, anything like that. It's not

55:04

something anyone's going to ask them

55:06

about.

55:07

Today, if you want to be a part of this

55:09

movement, yeah, join Pause AI, join Stop

55:12

AI. Those are organizations currently

55:14

trying to build up momentum to

55:17

bring

55:18

democratic powers to influence those

55:21

individuals.

55:23

So, in the meantime,

55:25

not a huge amount. I was wondering if

55:26

there there are any interesting

55:27

strategies in the meantime. Like should

55:28

I be thinking differently about my

55:31

family, about I mean, you've got kids,

55:33

right? You've got three kids. That I

55:35

know about, yeah.

55:37

How are you thinking about parenting in

55:39

this world that you see around the

55:41

corner? How are you thinking about what

55:42

to say to them, the advice to give them,

55:43

what they should be learning? So, there

55:45

is general advice.

55:47

I would say that there is the main that

55:48

you should live your everyday as if it's

55:51

your last.

55:52

It's a good advice no matter what. If

55:53

you have 3 years left or 30 years left,

55:55

you live your best life.

55:57

So,

55:59

try to not do things you hate for too

56:01

long.

56:03

Do interesting things. Do impactful

56:05

things.

56:06

If you can do all that while helping

56:08

people, do that.

56:10

Simulation theory

56:12

is a interesting sort of adjacent

56:14

subject here because as computers begin

56:17

to accelerate and get more intelligent

56:18

and we're able to

56:21

you know, do things with AI that we can

56:23

never have imagined in terms of like

56:25

imagine the worlds that we could create

56:27

with virtual reality. I think it was

56:28

Google that recently released

56:30

what was it called? Um

56:33

like the AI worlds. You take a picture

56:36

and it generates a whole world. Yeah.

56:38

Yeah. You can move through the world.

56:39

I'll put it on the screen for people to

56:40

see, but Google have released this

56:42

technology which allows you, I think

56:43

with a simple prompt actually, to make a

56:46

three-dimensional world that you can

56:48

then navigate through. And in that world

56:51

it has memory. So, in the world if you

56:52

paint on a wall and turn away, you look

56:54

back, the wall

56:55

>> Yeah, it's persistent. And when I saw

56:57

that, I thought oh God, Jesus, bloody

56:58

hell, this is

57:00

this is like the foothills of being able

57:03

to create a simulation that's

57:04

indistinguishable from everything I see

57:06

here. Right.

57:08

That's why I think we are in one. That's

57:10

exactly the reason. AI is getting to the

57:12

level of creating human agents, human

57:15

level agents, and virtual reality is

57:17

getting to the level of being

57:19

indistinguishable from ours.

57:20

So, you think this is a simulation? I'm

57:22

pretty sure we are in a simulation,

57:24

yeah.

57:26

For someone that isn't familiar with the

57:27

simulation arguments, what are what are

57:29

the first principles here that convince

57:31

you that we are currently living in a

57:32

simulation?

57:34

So,

57:35

you need certain technologies to make it

57:37

happen. If you believe we can create

57:39

human level AI, Yeah. and you believe we

57:42

can create virtual reality as good as

57:43

this in terms of resolution, haptics,

57:46

whatever properties it has,

57:49

then I commit right now, the moment this

57:51

is affordable, I'm going to run billions

57:53

of simulations of this exact moment

57:55

making sure you are statistically in

57:57

one.

57:59

Say that last part again. You're going

58:01

to run you're going to run I'm going to

58:03

commit right now when it's very

58:04

affordable. It's like 10 bucks a month

58:06

to run it. I'm going to run a billion

58:08

simulations of this interview.

58:11

Why?

58:12

Because statistically that means you are

58:14

in one right now. The chance of you

58:16

being in the real one is one in a

58:17

billion.

58:19

Okay. So,

58:21

to make sure I'm clear on this, It's a

58:22

retroactive placement. Yeah. So, the

58:24

minute it's affordable,

58:26

then

58:28

you can run billions of them

58:30

and they would feel and appear to be

58:31

exactly like this interview right now.

58:33

>> Right. So, assuming that AI has internal

58:37

states, experiences, qualia. Some people

58:39

argue that they don't. Some say they

58:41

already have it. That's a separate

58:42

philosophical question, but if we can

58:44

simulate this, I will.

58:48

Some people might misunderstand. You're

58:50

not

58:51

you're not saying that you will.

58:53

You're saying that someone will. I can

58:55

also do it. I don't mind.

58:58

Okay. Of course, others will do it

59:00

before I get there. If I'm getting it

59:01

for $10, somebody got it for $1,000.

59:03

That's not the point. If you have

59:05

technology, we're definitely running a

59:07

lot of simulations for research, for

59:10

entertainment, games,

59:12

all sorts of reasons.

59:14

And the number of those greatly exceeds

59:16

the number of real worlds we're in.

59:18

Look at all the video games kids are

59:20

playing. Every kid plays 10 different

59:22

games. You know, billion kids in the

59:24

world. So, there is 10 billion

59:26

simulations in one real world. Mhm.

59:31

Even more so when we think about

59:33

advanced AI super intelligent systems.

59:35

Their thinking is not like ours. They

59:37

think in a lot more detail. They run

59:39

experiments. So, running a detailed

59:42

simulation of some problem at the level

59:45

of creating artificial humans and

59:47

simulating the whole planet would be

59:49

something they'll do routinely.

59:51

So, there is a good chance this is not

59:53

me doing it for $10. It's a future

59:55

simulation thinking about something in

59:58

this world.

60:03

So, it could be the case that

60:06

a species of humans or a species of

60:09

intelligence in some form got to this

60:12

point where they could affordably run

60:16

simulations that are indistinguishable

60:18

from this

60:19

and they decided to do it

60:21

and this is it right now.

60:25

And it would make sense that they would

60:26

run simulations as experiments or for

60:28

games or for entertainment. And also,

60:31

when we think about time in the world

60:33

that I'm in in this simulation that I

60:34

could be in right now, time feels long

60:36

relatively. You know, I have 24 hours in

60:38

a day, but on there in their world it

60:41

could be

60:43

Time is relative. Relative, yeah. It

60:44

could be a second. My whole life could

60:46

be a millisecond in there.

60:48

>> Right. You can change speed of

60:50

simulations you're running for sure.

60:53

So, your belief is that this is probably

60:55

a simulation. Most likely. And there is

60:57

a lot of agreement on that if you look

60:59

again returning to religions. Every

61:00

religion basically describes what? A

61:03

super intelligent being

61:05

an engineer, a programmer creating a

61:07

fake world for testing purposes or for

61:11

whatever. But, if you took the

61:13

simulation hypothesis paper

61:15

you go to jungle, you talk to primitive

61:18

people, a local tribe and in their

61:20

language you tell them about it.

61:23

Go back two generations later. They have

61:25

religion. That's basically what the

61:27

story is.

61:29

Religion, you know, it describes a

61:31

simulation theory basically. Somebody

61:33

creates

61:33

>> So, by default that was the first theory

61:35

we had and now with science more and

61:37

more people are going like I'm giving it

61:39

non-trivial probability. A few people as

61:41

high as I am, but a lot of people give

61:44

it some credence. What percentage are

61:45

you at in terms of believing that we are

61:47

currently living in a simulation? Very

61:49

close to certainty.

61:52

And what does that mean for

61:54

the nature of your life? If you're close

61:56

to 100% certain that we are currently

61:58

living in a simulation

62:00

does that change anything in your life?

62:02

So, all the things you care about are

62:04

still the same. Pain still hurts. Love

62:06

still love, right? Like those things are

62:08

not different, so it doesn't matter.

62:09

They're still important. That's what

62:11

matters.

62:12

The

62:13

little 1% difference is that I care

62:16

about what's outside the simulation. I

62:17

want to learn about it. I write papers

62:19

about it. So, that's the only impact.

62:22

And what do you think is outside of the

62:23

simulation? I don't know.

62:26

But, we can

62:27

look at this world and derive some

62:30

properties of the simulators.

62:32

So, clearly brilliant engineer,

62:34

brilliant scientist, brilliant artist.

62:37

Not so good with morals and ethics.

62:40

Room for improvement.

62:42

In our view of what morals and ethics

62:44

should be. Well, we we know there is

62:46

suffering in the world. So, unless you

62:48

think it's ethical to torture children,

62:51

then

62:52

I'm questioning your approach. But, in

62:55

terms of incentives to create a positive

62:57

incentive, you probably also need to

62:58

create negative incentives. Suffering

63:00

seems to be one of the negatives and

63:02

incentives built into our design to stop

63:04

me doing things I shouldn't do. So, like

63:06

put my hand in a fire, it's going to

63:07

hurt. But, it's all about levels, levels

63:10

of suffering, right? So, unpleasant

63:12

stimuli, negative feedback doesn't have

63:14

to be at like negative infinity hell

63:17

levels. You don't want to burn alive and

63:19

feel it. You want to be like, "Oh, this

63:21

is uncomfortable. I'm going to stop."

63:24

It's interesting because we we assume

63:26

that they don't have great moral morals

63:27

and ethics, but we too would we take

63:30

animals and cook them and eat them for a

63:32

dinner and

63:33

we also take conduct experiments on mice

63:35

and rats

63:35

>> But, to get university approval to

63:37

conduct an experiment you submit a

63:39

proposal and there is a panel of

63:41

ethicists who would say, "You can't

63:43

experiment on humans. You can't burn

63:45

babies. You can't eat animals alive."

63:47

All those things would be banned.

63:50

In most parts of the world. Where they

63:52

have ethical boards. Yeah. Cuz some

63:54

places don't bother with it, so they

63:56

have easier approval process.

63:59

It's funny when you talk about the

64:00

simulation theory, there's a there's an

64:02

element of the conversation that makes

64:04

life feel less meaningful in a weird

64:06

way.

64:08

Like

64:09

I know it doesn't matter but whenever I

64:12

have this conversation with people not

64:14

on the podcast about are we living in a

64:16

simulation

64:17

you almost see a little bit of meaning

64:20

come out of their life for a second and

64:22

then they forget and then they carry on.

64:23

But, the the the thought that this is a

64:25

simulation almost

64:27

posits that it's not important

64:30

or that I I think humans want to believe

64:32

that this is the highest level and we're

64:34

that the most important and we're the

64:36

it's all about us. We're quite

64:37

egotistical by design.

64:40

And yeah, I just a interesting

64:42

observation I've always had when I have

64:43

these conversations with people that it

64:44

it seems to strip something out of their

64:45

life. Do you feel religious people feel

64:48

that way? They know there is another

64:50

world and the one that matters is not

64:52

this one. Do you feel they don't value

64:55

their lives the same?

64:56

I guess in some religions. Think um they

65:00

think that this world is being created

65:01

for them and that they are going to go

65:03

to this heaven or or hell and that still

65:06

puts them at the very center of it. But,

65:08

it but if it's a simulation, you know,

65:10

we could just be

65:12

some computer game that a 4-year-old

65:14

alien has is messing around with and

65:16

while he's got some time to burn.

65:18

But, maybe there is, you know, a test

65:21

and there is a better simulation you go

65:23

to and a worse one. Maybe there are

65:25

different difficulty levels. Maybe you

65:27

want to play it on a harder setting next

65:29

time.

65:30

I've just invested millions into this

65:33

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65:34

It's a company called KetoneIQ and the

65:37

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65:38

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65:46

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66:00

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66:03

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66:06

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66:08

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66:52

you're thinking about the product, how

66:54

to attract new customers, how to grow

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your team, really how to survive. And HR

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67:44

And do you think much about longevity? A

67:46

lot, yeah. It's probably the second most

67:48

important problem because if AI doesn't

67:50

get us, that will.

67:52

What do you mean? You're going to die of

67:54

old age.

67:56

Which is fine. That's not good. You want

67:58

to die?

67:59

I mean You don't have to. It's just a

68:01

disease. We can cure it.

68:05

Nothing stops you from living forever.

68:08

As long as universe exists unless we

68:10

escape the simulation.

68:12

But, we wouldn't want a world where

68:13

everybody could live forever, right?

68:15

That would be Sure we do. Why? Who do

68:17

you want to die?

68:19

Well, I don't know. I

68:20

I mean I say this because it's all I've

68:22

ever known that people die, but wouldn't

68:23

the world become pretty overcrowded if

68:25

>> No, you stop reproducing if you live

68:27

forever. You have kids because you want

68:28

a replacement for you. If you live

68:30

forever, you're like, "I'll have kids in

68:32

a million years. That's cool." I'll go

68:34

explore universe first.

68:36

Plus, if you look at actual population

68:38

dynamics outside of like one continent,

68:41

we're all shrinking. We're not growing.

68:43

This is crazy. It's crazy that the more

68:45

rich people get, the less kids they they

68:47

have which aligns with what you're

68:49

saying and I do actually think I think

68:51

if I'm going to be completely honest

68:52

here, I think if I knew that I was going

68:54

to live to 1,000 years old, there's no

68:57

way I'd be having kids at 30. Right.

68:59

It's a Biological clocks are based on

69:01

terminal points. Whereas, if your

69:03

biological clock is infinite, you'd be

69:05

like one day.

69:07

And you think that's close?

69:09

Uh Being able to extend our lives?

69:11

It's one breakthrough away. I think

69:13

somewhere in our genome we have this

69:15

rejuvenation loop and it's set to

69:17

basically give us at most 120. I think

69:20

we can reset it to something bigger.

69:23

AI is probably going to accelerate that.

69:26

That's one very important application

69:28

area, yes, absolutely.

69:30

So, maybe Brian Johnson's right when he

69:32

says don't die.

69:33

Now, he keeps saying to me, he's like,

69:35

don't die now. Don't die ever. Because

69:38

he's saying like don't die before we get

69:40

to the technology.

69:40

>> Right. Longevity escape velocity. You

69:42

want to long live long enough to live

69:44

forever. If at some point we

69:47

every year of your existence add 2 years

69:50

to your existence through medical

69:52

breakthroughs, then you live forever.

69:53

You just have to make it to that point

69:55

of longevity escape velocity.

69:58

And he thinks that longevity escape

70:00

velocity, especially in the world of AI,

70:01

is pretty

70:02

is pretty

70:03

is decades away, minimum, which means

70:06

As soon as we fully understand human

70:08

genome, I think we'll make amazing

70:10

breakthroughs very quickly. Because we

70:12

know some people have genes for living

70:14

way longer. They have generations of

70:16

people who are centenarians. So, if we

70:18

can understand that and copy that or

70:20

copy it from some animals which will

70:22

live forever,

70:23

we'll get there. Would you want to live

70:25

forever?

70:27

>> Reverse reverse the question. Let's say

70:29

we lived forever and you ask me, do you

70:31

want to die in 40 years? Why would I say

70:33

yes? I don't know. Maybe

70:34

>> You just used to the default. Yeah, I am

70:36

used to the default. And nobody wants to

70:38

die. Like, no matter how old you are,

70:39

nobody goes, yeah, I want to die this

70:40

year. Everyone's like, ah, I want to

70:41

keep living.

70:43

I wonder if life and everything would be

70:46

less special if I lived for

70:49

10,000 years. I wonder if going to

70:51

Hawaii for the first time or, I don't

70:54

know,

70:55

a relationship. All of these things

70:57

would be way less special to me if

70:59

they were less scarce.

71:02

And if that I just, you know, It could

71:03

be individually less special, but there

71:05

is so much more you can do. Right now,

71:07

you can only make plans to do something

71:09

for a decade or two. You cannot have an

71:11

ambitious plan of working on this

71:13

project for 500 years. Imagine

71:15

possibilities open to you with infinite

71:17

time in an infinite universe.

71:21

Gosh.

71:22

Well, you can't.

71:23

>> Because it's exhausting, I guess. It's a

71:24

big amount of time.

71:26

I don't know about you, but I don't

71:28

remember like 99% of my life in detail.

71:31

I remember big highlights. So, even if I

71:33

enjoyed Hawaii 10 years ago, I'll enjoy

71:35

it again.

71:37

Are you thinking about that really

71:38

practically as as in terms of, you know,

71:40

if in the same way that Brian Johnson is

71:42

Brian Johnson is convinced that we're

71:43

like maybe two decades away from being

71:45

able to extend life. Are you thinking

71:47

about that practically? And are you

71:48

doing anything about it?

71:49

>> Diet, nutrition. I try to think about

71:52

investment strategies which pay out in

71:54

the long years, yeah.

71:56

Really? Yeah, of course. What do you

71:58

mean of course? Of course Why wouldn't

71:59

you if you think this is what's going to

72:01

happen? You you should try that. So, if

72:03

we get AI right, now, what happens to

72:05

economy? We talked about Worldcoin. We

72:08

talked about free labor.

72:10

What's money? Is it now Bitcoin? Do you

72:12

invest in that? Is there something else

72:14

which becomes the only resource we

72:16

cannot fake? So, those things are very

72:19

important research topics. So, you're

72:20

investing in Bitcoin, aren't you?

72:23

Yeah.

72:26

Because it's a It's the only scarce

72:28

resource. Nothing else has scarcity.

72:31

Everything else, if price goes up, will

72:33

make more. I can make as much gold as

72:35

you want given a proper price point.

72:38

You cannot make more Bitcoin.

72:41

Some people say Bitcoin is just this

72:42

thing on a computer that we all agreed

72:43

was valuable.

72:44

>> Yeah, a thing on a computer.

72:48

Remember?

72:49

Okay, so, I mean, not investment advice,

72:53

but investment advice. It's hilarious

72:55

how that's one of those things where

72:56

they tell you it's not, but you know it

72:58

is immediately. There is a your call is

73:00

important to us. That means your call is

73:02

of zero importance. And investment is

73:04

like that. Yeah, yeah, when they say no

73:06

investment advice, it's definitely

73:07

investment advice. Um, but it's not

73:09

investment advice. Okay, so, you're

73:11

bullish on Bitcoin because it's

73:13

it can't be messed with.

73:15

It is the only thing which we know how

73:18

much there is

73:20

in the universe. So, gold, there could

73:22

be an asteroid made out of pure gold

73:24

heading towards us, devaluing it.

73:27

Well, also killing all of us, but

73:30

Bitcoin, I know exactly the numbers. And

73:32

even the 21 million is an upper limit.

73:35

How many are lost? Passwords forgotten.

73:37

I don't know what Satoshi's doing with

73:39

his million.

73:40

It's getting scarcer every day while

73:43

more and more people are trying to

73:44

accumulate it.

73:47

Some people worry that it could be

73:48

hacked with a supercomputer. A quantum

73:51

computer can break that algorithm. There

73:53

is

73:54

strategies for switching to quantum

73:57

resistant cryptography for that. And

73:59

quantum computers are still kind of

74:01

weak.

74:02

Do you think there's any changes to my

74:04

life that I should make

74:06

following this conversation? Is there

74:07

anything that I should do differently

74:09

the minute I walk out of this door?

74:11

I assume you already invest in Bitcoin

74:13

heavily. Yes, I'm an an investor in

74:15

Bitcoin. Is this financial advice?

74:17

Uh, no, just you seem to be winning.

74:19

Maybe it's your simulation. You're rich,

74:21

handsome. You have famous people hang

74:24

out with you like that's pretty good.

74:28

Keep it up.

74:33

Robin Hanson has a paper about how to

74:35

live in a simulation, what you should be

74:36

doing in it.

74:38

And your goal is to do exactly that. You

74:40

want to be interesting. You want to hang

74:41

out with famous people so they don't

74:42

shut it down. So, you are part of a part

74:45

someone's actually watching on

74:46

pay-per-view or something like that.

74:48

Well, I don't know if you want to be

74:49

watched on pay-per-view because then you

74:51

would be the same

74:52

>> Then they shut you down. If no one's

74:53

watching, why would they play it?

74:57

I'm saying you don't you want to fly

74:58

under the radar? Don't you want to be

74:59

the the guy just living a normal life

75:01

that the the masters Those are NPCs.

75:03

Nobody wants to be an NPC.

75:07

Are you religious?

75:08

Not in any traditional sense, but I

75:10

believe in simulation hypothesis which

75:12

has a super intelligent being. So,

75:14

But you don't believe in the like,

75:16

you know, the religious books.

75:18

So, different religions. This religion

75:20

will tell you don't work Saturday. This

75:22

one, don't work Sunday.

75:24

Don't eat pigs. Don't eat carbs. They

75:26

just have local traditions on top of

75:28

that theory. That's all it is. They're

75:29

all the same religion. They all worship

75:31

super intelligent being.

75:33

They all think this world is not the

75:35

main one.

75:37

And they argue about which animal not to

75:39

eat.

75:41

Skip the local flavors. Concentrate on

75:43

what do all the religions have in

75:45

common?

75:46

And that's the interesting part.

75:49

They all think there is something

75:50

greater than humans. Very capable,

75:52

all-knowing, all-powerful. Then they run

75:54

a computer game.

75:56

For those characters in the game, I am

75:57

that.

75:58

I can change the whole world. I can shut

76:00

it down. I know everything in the world.

76:05

It's funny. I was thinking earlier on

76:06

when we started talking about the

76:07

simulation theory that there's there

76:09

might be something in a in us that has

76:11

been left from the creator, almost like

76:13

a clue. Like a like an intuition.

76:16

Cuz that's what we we tend to have

76:17

through history. Humans have this

76:18

intuition. Yeah. That all the things you

76:21

said are true. That there's this

76:22

somebody above and that We have

76:24

generations of people who were

76:26

religious, who believed God told them

76:28

and was there and gave them books. And

76:31

that has been passed on for many

76:32

generations. This is probably one of the

76:34

earliest generations not to have

76:36

universal religious belief.

76:40

What if those people are telling the

76:41

truth?

76:42

What if there's people there's people

76:43

that say God came to them and said

76:44

something. Imagine that. Imagine if that

76:45

was part of the I'm looking at the news

76:47

today. Something happened an hour ago

76:49

and I'm getting different conflicting

76:51

results. I can't even get with cameras,

76:53

with drones, with like guy on Twitter

76:56

there. I still don't know what happened.

76:58

And you think 3,000 years ago we have

77:00

accurate record of translations? No, of

77:03

course not.

77:05

You know, these conversations you have

77:06

around AI safety.

77:08

Do you think they make people feel good?

77:12

I don't know if they feel good or bad,

77:13

but people find it interesting. It's one

77:16

of those topics where I can't have a

77:18

conversation about different cures for

77:20

cancer with an average person, but

77:22

everyone has opinions about AI. Everyone

77:24

has opinions about simulation. It's

77:26

interesting that you don't have to be

77:28

highly educated or a genius to

77:30

understand those concepts.

77:33

Cuz I tend to think that it makes me

77:34

feel

77:36

not positive.

77:38

And I understand that, but I've always

77:42

been of the opinion that

77:47

you shouldn't live in a world of

77:48

delusion where you're just seeking to be

77:50

positive have sort of

77:53

positive things said and avoid

77:55

uncomfortable conversations. Actually,

77:57

progress often in my life comes from

77:59

like having uncomfortable conversations,

78:01

becoming aware about something, and then

78:03

at least being informed about how I can

78:05

do something about it.

78:07

And so,

78:09

I think that's why that's why I asked

78:10

the question cuz I think I assume most

78:11

people will should, if they're, you

78:13

know, if they're normal human beings,

78:15

listen to these conversations and go,

78:18

gosh, that's scary.

78:20

And this is concerning.

78:24

And and then I can come back to this

78:25

point which is like, well, what do I do

78:27

with that energy?

78:28

Yeah, but I'm trying to point out this

78:31

is not different than so many

78:33

conversations. We can talk about, oh,

78:35

there is starvation in this region,

78:37

genocide in this region. You're all

78:39

dying. Cancer is spreading. Atheism is

78:42

up. You can always find something to be

78:45

very depressed about and nothing you can

78:47

do about it. And we're very good at

78:49

concentrating on what we can change,

78:52

what we are good at, and

78:55

basically

78:57

not trying to embrace the whole world as

78:59

a local environment. So, historically,

79:01

you grew up with a tribe. You had a

79:03

dozen people around you. If something

79:04

happened to one of them, it was very

79:06

rare. It was an accident. Now, if I go

79:08

on the internet, somebody gets killed

79:10

everywhere all the time. Somehow,

79:13

thousands of people are reported to me

79:14

every day. I don't even have time to

79:16

notice.

79:17

It's just too much. So, I have to put

79:19

filters in place.

79:21

And I think this topic is what

79:25

people are very good at filtering as

79:27

like this was this entertaining

79:29

talk I went to, kind of like a show, and

79:32

the moment I exit, it ends. So, usually

79:35

I would go give a keynote at a

79:37

conference and

79:39

I tell them basically you're going to

79:40

die, you have 2 years left, any

79:42

questions?

79:43

And people be like,

79:45

will I lose my job?

79:47

How do I lubricate my sex robot? Like

79:49

all sorts of nonsense, clearly

79:51

understanding what I'm trying to say

79:53

there.

79:54

And those are good questions,

79:55

interesting questions, but not fully

79:58

embracing the result. They're still in

80:00

their bubble of local versus global.

80:03

And the people that disagree with you

80:04

the most as it relates to AI safety,

80:07

what is it that they say?

80:10

What are their counterarguments

80:11

typically?

80:13

So, many don't engage at all. Like they

80:16

have no background knowledge in the

80:18

subject. They never read a single book,

80:20

single paper, not just by me, by anyone.

80:23

They may be even working in a field, so

80:26

they are doing some machine learning

80:27

work for some company maximizing ad

80:30

clicks.

80:31

And to them, those systems are very

80:33

narrow.

80:35

And then they hear that all this AI is

80:37

going to take over the world like has no

80:39

hands. How would it do that? It's

80:42

nonsense. This guy is crazy, has a

80:43

beard, why would I listen to him, right?

80:46

That's uh

80:47

Then they start reading a little bit.

80:49

They go, oh okay, so maybe I can be

80:52

dangerous, yeah, I see that, but we

80:54

always solve problems in the past, we're

80:56

going to solve them again. I mean, at

80:58

some point we fixed the computer virus

81:00

or something, so it's the same.

81:02

And basically, the more exposure they

81:05

have, the less likely they are to keep

81:08

that position. I know many people who

81:10

went from

81:12

super

81:13

careless developer to safety researcher.

81:17

I don't know anyone who went from I

81:19

worry about AI safety to like there is

81:21

nothing to worry about.

81:29

What are your closing statements?

81:31

Uh let's make sure that it's not a

81:32

closing statement we need to give for

81:34

humanity. Let's make sure we stay in

81:36

charge, in control.

81:38

Let's make sure we only build things

81:40

which are beneficial to us.

81:42

Let's make sure people who are making

81:44

those decisions are remotely qualified

81:46

to do it.

81:48

They are good, not just at science,

81:51

engineering, and business, but also have

81:52

moral and ethical standards.

81:55

And uh if you're doing something which

81:57

impacts other people, you should ask

81:59

their permission before you do that. If

82:02

there was one button in front of you

82:04

and it would

82:07

shut down every AI company in the world

82:09

right now

82:10

permanently, with the inability for

82:12

anybody to start a new one,

82:14

would you press the button? Are we

82:15

losing narrow AI or just

82:17

superintelligent AGI part? Losing all of

82:19

AI.

82:21

That's a hard question because AI is an

82:23

extremely important, it controls stock

82:26

market, power plants, it controls

82:28

hospitals. It would be a devastating

82:31

accident. Millions of people would lose

82:34

their lives. Okay, we can keep narrow

82:36

AI. Oh, yeah.

82:38

That's what we want. We want narrow AI

82:40

to do all this for us, but not God we

82:42

don't control doing things to us. So,

82:45

you would stop it, you would stop AGI

82:47

and superintelligence.

82:48

>> We have AGI. What we have today is great

82:51

for almost everything. We can make

82:53

secretaries out of it. 99% of the

82:55

economic potential of current technology

82:58

has not been deployed. We make AI so

83:00

quickly, it doesn't have time to

83:01

propagate through the industry, through

83:03

technology. Something like half of all

83:06

jobs are considered BS jobs. They don't

83:08

need to be done, jobs.

83:10

So, those can be not even automated,

83:12

they can just gone. But I'm saying we

83:14

can replace 60% of jobs today with

83:18

existing models.

83:19

We've not done that. So, if the goal is

83:21

to grow economy, to develop, we can do

83:24

it for decades without having to create

83:26

superintelligence as soon as possible.

83:28

Do you think globally, especially in the

83:30

Western world, unemployment's only going

83:31

to go up from here?

83:33

Do you think relatively this is the low

83:34

of unemployment?

83:36

I mean, it fluctuates a lot with other

83:38

factors. There are wars, there is

83:40

economic cycles, but overall, the more

83:42

jobs you automate and the higher is the

83:44

intellectual necessity to start a job,

83:47

the fewer people qualify.

83:50

So, if we plotted it on a graph over the

83:53

next 20 years, you're assuming

83:55

unemployment's gradually going to go up

83:57

over that time. I think so. Fewer and

83:59

fewer people would be able to

84:01

contribute. Already, we kind of

84:03

understand it because we created minimum

84:05

wage. We understood some people don't

84:07

contribute enough economic value to get

84:09

paid

84:10

anything really. So, we had to force

84:13

employers to pay them more than they're

84:15

worth.

84:17

And we haven't updated it. It's what,

84:18

725 federally in US?

84:21

If you keep up with the economy, it

84:23

should be like $25 an hour now.

84:26

Which means all these people making less

84:29

are not contributing enough economic

84:31

output to justify what they're getting

84:33

paid.

84:35

We have a closing tradition on this

84:36

podcast where the last guest leaves a

84:37

question for the next guest not knowing

84:38

who they're leaving it for.

84:40

And the question left for you is, what

84:41

are what are the most important

84:45

characteristics

84:47

for a friend,

84:48

colleague,

84:50

or mate?

84:52

Those are very different types of

84:54

people.

84:55

Mhm. But for all of them, loyalty is

84:58

number one.

85:00

And what does loyalty mean to you?

85:03

Not betraying you,

85:05

not screwing you, not cheating on you.

85:10

Despite the temptation.

85:12

Despite the world being as it is,

85:15

situation, environment.

85:17

Dr. Roman, thank you so much. Thank you

85:19

so much for doing what you do because

85:21

you're you're starting a conversation

85:22

and pushing forward a conversation and

85:24

doing research that is

85:25

incredibly important and you're doing it

85:27

in the face of a lot of um

85:29

a lot of skeptics.

85:30

I'd say there's a lot of people that

85:31

have a lot of incentives to discredit

85:34

what you're saying and what you do

85:36

because they have

85:37

their own incentives and they have

85:38

billions of dollars on the line and they

85:40

have their jobs on the line potentially

85:41

as well, so

85:43

it's really important that there are

85:44

people out there that are willing to

85:47

I guess stick their head above the

85:48

parapet and

85:50

come on shows like this and go on big

85:52

platforms and talk about

85:54

the unexplainable, unpredictable,

85:56

uncontrollable future that we're heading

85:57

towards.

85:59

So, thank you for doing that. This book,

86:00

which which I think everybody should

86:02

should check out if they want a

86:03

continuation of this conversation,

86:05

I think it was published in 2024,

86:07

gives a holistic view on many of the

86:09

things we've talked about today, um

86:10

preventing AI failures and much, much

86:12

more. And I'm going to link it below for

86:14

anybody that wants to read it. If people

86:16

want to learn more from you, if they

86:17

want to go further into your work,

86:18

what's the best thing for them to do?

86:20

Where do they go? They can follow me,

86:21

follow me on Facebook, follow me on X,

86:23

just don't follow me home. Very

86:25

important.

86:26

>> do it.

86:26

Okay, so I'll put your Twitter, your X

86:28

account um as well below so people can

86:30

follow you there.

86:31

And yeah, thank you so much for doing

86:32

what you did. Remarkably eye-opening and

86:34

it's given me so much food for thought

86:36

and it's actually convinced me more that

86:37

we are living in a simulation. But it's

86:39

also made me think quite differently of

86:41

religion, I have to say,

86:42

because um you're right, all the

86:43

religions, when you get away from the

86:45

sort of the local traditions, they do

86:46

all point at the same thing.

86:48

And actually, if they are all pointing

86:50

at the same thing, then maybe the

86:51

fundamental truths that exist across

86:52

them should be something I pay more

86:54

attention to. Things like loving thy

86:56

neighbor, things like the fact that we

86:57

are all one, that there's a a divine

86:59

creator, and maybe also they all seem to

87:02

have consequence beyond this life.

87:05

So, maybe I should be thinking more

87:06

about

87:07

how I behave in this life and and where

87:09

I might end up thereafter.

87:11

Roman, thank you. Amen.

87:23

Oh

87:23

oh oh oh oh.

87:35

Oh

87:36

oh oh oh oh.

Interactive Summary

Dr. Roman Yampolskiy, a prominent expert in AI safety, discusses the existential risks posed by the rapid development of artificial superintelligence. He argues that current AI safety efforts are essentially band-aids on a core problem we do not know how to solve: creating systems that remain aligned with human values as they become smarter than us. Yampolskiy also shares his belief that we are likely living in a computer simulation, a hypothesis he sees as aligned with the core tenets of world religions, and emphasizes the need for humanity to reconsider its reckless pursuit of AGI.

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