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Yuval Noah Harari: An Urgent Warning They Hope You Ignore. More War Is Coming!

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Yuval Noah Harari: An Urgent Warning They Hope You Ignore. More War Is Coming!

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2397 segments

0:00

We are now in a new era of wars. And

0:03

unless you reestablish order fast, then

0:06

we are doomed.

0:07

You've all Noah Harrari,

0:08

one of the brightest minds on planet

0:10

earth, historian, a bestselling author

0:12

of some of the most influential

0:13

non-fiction books in the world today.

0:16

I think we are very near the end of our

0:18

species because people often spend so

0:21

much effort trying to gain something

0:23

without understanding the consequences.

0:26

For example, we will get to a life where

0:29

you can live indefinitely. But realizing

0:32

that you have a chance to live forever,

0:34

but if there is an accident, you die.

0:36

The people who will be in that situation

0:39

will be at a level of anxiety and terror

0:42

unlike anything that we know. Then you

0:44

have artificial intelligence and the

0:47

world is is not ready for it. It's the

0:49

first technology in history that can

0:51

make decisions by itself and take power

0:54

away from us to hack human beings,

0:57

manipulate our behavior and making all

0:59

these decisions for us or about us.

1:02

Whether to give you a loan, whether to

1:03

give you a mortgage, dating us, shaping

1:05

your romantic life. But the real problem

1:08

is that increasingly the humans at the

1:11

top could be puppets. When the most

1:14

consequential decisions are made by

1:16

algorithms, global financial decisions,

1:18

wars. This is extremely dangerous, but

1:20

it's not inevitable. Humans can change

1:22

it.

1:23

But with what's to come, are you

1:24

optimistic about the future?

1:27

I'm very worried about two things. First

1:29

of all,

1:31

quick one. This is really, really

1:32

fascinating to me. On the back end of

1:34

our YouTube channel, it says that 69.9%

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of you that watch this channel

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frequently over the lifetime of this

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2:11

[Music]

2:16

I have three of your books here and

2:18

these are three books that sent a huge

2:22

tidal wave, a ripple through society.

2:25

with these books and with all of the

2:26

work that you're doing now, with the

2:28

lectures you give, the the interviews

2:30

you give, what is your mission? What

2:33

what is the sort of if I was to be able

2:35

to summarize what your collective

2:37

mission is with your work? What is that?

2:39

It's to clarify and to focus the public

2:42

conversation, the global conversation,

2:44

uh to help people focus on the most

2:47

important challenges that are facing

2:48

humankind and also to bring at least a

2:52

little bit of clarity to the collective

2:54

and and to the individual mind. I mean,

2:57

one of my main messages in all the books

3:00

is that our minds are like factories

3:04

that constantly produce

3:07

stories and fictions that then come

3:10

between us and the world. And we often

3:13

spend our lives interacting with

3:16

fictions that we or that other people

3:19

created uh with and completely losing

3:22

touch w with with reality. And my job

3:26

and I think the job of historians more

3:28

generally is to show us a way out.

3:33

Inherent in much of your work is what

3:37

feels like a warning.

3:40

And I've I've watched hundreds of videos

3:43

that you've produced or interviews

3:44

you've done um all around the world and

3:48

it feels like you're trying to warn us

3:50

about something, multiple things.

3:52

Mhm. If my estimation there is correct,

3:56

what is the warning?

3:58

Much of what we take to be real is is is

4:02

fictions. And and the reason that

4:04

fictions are so central in in human

4:07

history is because we control the planet

4:11

and rather than the chimpanzees or the

4:13

elephants or any of the other animals

4:15

because not because of some kind of in

4:17

individual genius that each of us has

4:20

but because we can cooperate much better

4:23

than any other animal. We can cooperate

4:26

in much larger numbers and also much

4:28

more flexibly.

4:30

And the reason we can do that is because

4:34

we can create and believe in fictional

4:36

stories because every largecale human

4:39

cooperation whether uh religion or

4:43

nations or corporations

4:45

are based on mythologies on on fictions.

4:49

Again I'm not just talking about gods.

4:51

This is the easy example. Money is also

4:54

a fiction that we created. Corporations

4:57

are a fiction. they exist only in our

4:59

minds. Uh even lawyers would tell you

5:02

that corporations are legal fictions.

5:04

And this is on on the one hand such a

5:08

source of of immense power.

5:11

But on the other hand, again the danger

5:13

is that we completely lose touch with

5:14

reality and we are manipulated by all

5:20

these fictions, by all these stories.

5:22

Again, stories are not not bad. They are

5:24

tools. As long as we use them to

5:27

cooperate and to help each other, that's

5:30

wonderful. Um, money is not bad. If we

5:33

didn't have money, we would not have a

5:34

trade network. We everybody would have

5:37

maybe with their friends and family to

5:39

to produce everything by themselves like

5:41

the chimpanzees do. uh the fact that we

5:44

can enjoy uh food and clothing and

5:48

medicines and enter entertainment

5:52

created by people on the other side of

5:54

the world is largely because of money.

5:56

But if we forget that this is a tool

5:58

that we created in order to help

6:00

ourselves and instead uh this tool kind

6:04

of enslaves us and runs our life and um

6:09

you know I'm now just back home in

6:12

Israel there is a terrible war being

6:15

waged and most wars in history and also

6:18

now they are about stories they're about

6:21

fictions. People think that humans fight

6:25

over the same things that wolves or

6:27

chimpanzees fight about, that we fight

6:29

about territory, that we fight about

6:31

food. It sometimes happens, but most

6:34

wars in history were not really about

6:36

territory or food. There is enough land,

6:40

for instance, between the Jordan River

6:42

and the Mediterranean to build houses

6:44

and schools and hospitals for everybody.

6:47

And there is certainly enough food.

6:48

There's no shortage of food. But people

6:51

have different mythologies, different

6:54

stories in their minds and they can't

6:56

find a common story they can they can

6:58

agree about. And this is at the root of

7:01

most UN conflicts. And being able to

7:05

tell the difference between what is a

7:08

fiction in our own mind and what is the

7:12

reality. This is a a crucial skill and

7:16

we are not getting better at finding

7:20

this difference as time go time time

7:22

goes on

7:23

and also with new technologies which I

7:26

write about a lot like artificial

7:28

intelligence. The fantasy that AI will

7:33

answer our questions, will find the

7:35

truth for us, will tell us the

7:37

difference between fiction and reality.

7:40

This is this is just another fiction. I

7:42

mean AI can do many things better than

7:45

humans but for reasons that we can

7:48

discuss I don't think that it will

7:50

necessarily be better than humans at

7:53

finding the truth or uh um uncovering

7:57

reality. It it strikes me that the the

8:00

thing that made us successful,

8:03

you know, this ability to believe in

8:04

fictions and I use the word successful,

8:06

you know, powerful powerful. Yes.

8:08

Took over the world.

8:11

The thing that made us powerful could

8:13

well be the thing that makes us

8:15

powerless

8:17

in the sense that our ability to believe

8:18

in fictions and stories create a society

8:21

that would potentially lead to our

8:24

powerlessness.

8:26

That's kind of one of the the the

8:29

messages that when I connect the dots

8:30

throughout your work and you look off

8:32

into the future, um I'm left feeling.

8:35

And even you think about the modern

8:37

problems we have, those are typically

8:39

consequences of our ability to believe

8:40

in stories

8:42

and to believe in fictions.

8:43

And if you play that forward 100 years,

8:45

maybe 200 years,

8:47

you don't believe that um you believe

8:50

we'll be the last of our species, right?

8:53

I think we are very near the kind of end

8:55

of our species. It doesn't necessarily

8:57

mean that we'll be destroyed in some

9:01

huge nuclear war or something like that.

9:04

Uh it could very well mean that we'll

9:06

just change ourselves using

9:10

uh bioengineering and using AI and brain

9:13

computer interfaces. We will change

9:15

ourselves to such an extent that we'll

9:19

become something completely different,

9:21

something far more different from

9:23

present day homo sapiens than we today

9:26

are different from chimpanzees or from

9:28

Neanderthalss. I mean basically you know

9:31

um

9:33

you have a very deep connection still

9:35

with all the other animals because we

9:38

are completely organic.

9:40

We are organic entities. our psychology,

9:44

our social habits, they are the product

9:47

of organic evolution and male and more

9:50

specifically mamalian evolution over

9:52

tens of millions of years. So we share

9:55

so much of our psychology and of our

9:58

kind of social habits with chimpanzees

10:01

and with with other other mammals.

10:04

Looking a 100 years or 200 years to the

10:07

future, maybe we are no longer organic

10:09

or not fully organic. Um you could uh

10:13

have a world dominated by cyborgs which

10:17

are entities combining organic with

10:20

inorganic parts for instance with brain

10:22

computer interfaces. Um you could have

10:25

completely nonorganic entities.

10:28

So all the legacy and also all the

10:32

limitations of 4 billion years of

10:36

organic evolution might be irrelevant or

10:40

inapplicable

10:41

do you think

10:42

to the beings of the future?

10:43

What bet would you make?

10:45

Because you're saying maybe here

10:47

I don't know. I mean we could destroy

10:48

ourselves. I think there is a greater I

10:50

mean to completely destroy every last

10:54

single human in the world. it is

10:57

possible given the technology that we

10:59

now command but it's it's very

11:02

difficult.

11:04

Um I think it's there is a greater

11:07

chance and again this is just

11:08

speculation nobody really knows but I

11:10

think I mean lots of people could suffer

11:14

terribly

11:15

but I think it's more likely that uh uh

11:19

some people will survive and then will

11:21

undergo radical changes.

11:24

So it's not that humanity is completely

11:27

destroyed. It's just transformed

11:31

into into something else. And just to

11:33

give an example of what we are talking

11:35

about, organic beings like us need to be

11:40

in one place at any one time. We are now

11:43

here in this room. That's it. Um, if you

11:46

kind of disconnect our hands or our feet

11:50

from our body, we die or at least we

11:54

lose control of of these. I mean, and

11:56

this is true of all organic entities, of

11:59

plants, of of animals. Now, with cyborgs

12:03

or with inorganic entities, this is no

12:05

longer true. They could be spread over

12:08

time, time, and space. I mean if you

12:11

find a way and people are working on

12:13

finding ways to directly connect brains

12:16

with computers or brains with bionic

12:19

parts there is there there is no

12:22

essential reason that all the parts of

12:24

the be of of the entity need to be in

12:27

the same room at the same time. As you

12:29

said that, you know, I started thinking

12:30

a little bit about Neuralink and what

12:32

Elon Musk is doing interfacing us with

12:34

computers. But then I had a secondary

12:36

thought which is if there could be two

12:39

Stevens, one here and then one in the

12:41

United States right now because we're

12:42

connected to the same computer

12:44

interface. Theoretically, I could hack

12:48

Jack over there.

12:49

I could hack his interface. So there

12:52

could be three Stevens because I hack

12:53

Jack. And then I hack you and then

12:56

there's four. And then I could

12:57

eventually try and hack the entirety of

12:59

the world or a country.

13:00

Yeah.

13:00

And there could basically be one

13:03

one

13:04

once you can connect directly brains to

13:06

computers. First of all, I'm not sure if

13:08

it's possible.

13:09

I mean, people like Elon Musk in

13:10

Norolink, they tell us it's possible.

13:12

I'm I'm I'm I'm still waiting for the

13:14

evidence. I don't think it's impossible,

13:16

but I think it's much more difficult

13:19

than than than people assume. partly

13:21

because we are very far from

13:22

understanding the brain and we are even

13:25

further away from understanding the

13:26

mind. We assume that the brain somehow

13:30

produces the mind but this is just an

13:32

assumption. We still don't have a

13:34

working model a working theory for how

13:36

it happens. Uh but if it happens, if it

13:40

is possible to directly connect brains

13:43

and computers and integrate them into

13:46

these kinds of cyborgs, nobody has any

13:49

idea what happens next, how the world

13:52

would look like. And it is certainly

13:55

makes it a plausible if again if this is

13:59

this if you reach that point that you

14:02

could have an interbrain net

14:05

the same way that lots of computers are

14:08

connected together to form the internet.

14:10

If you can connect also brains and

14:12

computers directly why can't we then

14:14

connect an interbrain net which connects

14:17

lots of brains as as you as you as you

14:20

uh uh uh described. Again, I I have no

14:23

idea what it means. I think this is the

14:25

point when the way that our

14:30

organic brains understand reality

14:35

u

14:36

even our imagination in the end is the

14:39

product as far as we can tell of organic

14:42

biochemistry. Do you think

14:44

wait so so we we are not equipped I

14:46

think to have a kind of serious

14:49

discussion of what a nonorganic

14:55

brain or a non-organic mind might be

14:59

capable of of doing how it would how it

15:02

would look like and all the basic

15:03

assumptions that we have about brains

15:06

and minds they are limited to the

15:09

organic types. How do you feel about

15:12

artificial intelligence and what's

15:14

happening? This year has been a real

15:15

sort of landmark year in the

15:18

a big leap forward for artificial

15:20

intelligence, the conversation, public

15:22

awareness,

15:24

um the technology itself, the investment

15:27

in the technology, which is always, you

15:29

know, a a very important indicator of

15:31

what's to come.

15:32

Yeah.

15:32

How do you how do you as someone that

15:34

spent a lot of time thinking about this

15:36

emotionally, how do you feel about it?

15:40

uh very concerned. I mean it's moving

15:43

even faster than I expected. Uh when I

15:46

wrote say Homodos in 2016, I didn't

15:48

think we would reach this this point so

15:51

quickly where we are at 2023. And the

15:55

world is is not ready for it.

15:58

And again, it's not AI has enormous

16:01

positive potential.

16:03

We and and this this should be clear.

16:07

And there is no chance of just banning

16:09

AI or stopping all development in AI. I

16:13

tend to speak a lot about the dangers

16:15

simply because you have enough people

16:16

out there, all the entrepreneurs and uh

16:19

uh all the investors talking about the

16:21

positive potential. So it's kind of my

16:23

job to talk about the negative

16:26

potential, the dangers. But it there is

16:29

a lot of positive potential and uh

16:32

humans are incredibly capable in terms

16:36

of adapting to new situations. I don't

16:39

think it's impossible for human society

16:41

to adapt to the new AI reality. The only

16:45

thing is it takes time and apparently we

16:50

don't have that time and people compare

16:52

it to previous big historical

16:56

revolutions like the invention of print

16:59

or the invention of or or the the

17:01

industrial revolution. And you hear

17:03

people say yes when the industrial

17:05

revolution happened in the 19th century.

17:07

So you had all these pro prophecies of

17:10

doom about how industry and the new

17:14

factories and the steam engines and

17:16

electricity how how they will destroy

17:19

humanity or destroy our psychology or

17:21

whatever. And in the end it was okay.

17:25

And when I hear these kinds of

17:27

comparisons as as a historian I'm very

17:30

worried about two things. First of all,

17:33

they underestimate the magnitude of the

17:36

AI revolution. AI is nothing like print.

17:40

It's nothing like uh the industrial

17:42

revolution of the 19th century. It's far

17:44

far bigger. There is a fundamental

17:47

difference between AI and the printing

17:49

press of the steam engine or the radio

17:52

or any previous technology we invented.

17:55

The difference is it's the first

17:57

technology in history that can make

17:59

decisions by itself and that can create

18:02

new ideas by itself. A printing press or

18:06

a radio set could not write new music or

18:11

uh new speeches and could not decide

18:14

what to print and what to broadcast.

18:16

This was always the job of humans. This

18:19

is why the printing press and the radio

18:21

set in the end empowered humanity.

18:24

that you now have more power to

18:27

disseminate your ideas. AI is different.

18:30

It can potentially take power away from

18:32

us. It can decide, it's already deciding

18:35

by itself what to broadcast on social

18:38

media. Its algorithms deciding what to

18:42

promote.

18:43

And increasingly, it also creates much

18:46

of the content by itself. It can compose

18:49

entirely new music. it can compose

18:52

entirely new political manifestos, holy

18:55

books, whatever. Um, so it's a much

18:59

bigger challenge to handle that kind.

19:01

It's it's an independent agent in a way

19:05

that radio and the printing press were

19:07

not. The other thing I find worrying

19:12

about the comparison with say the

19:14

industrial revolution is that yes in the

19:17

end in a way it was okay but to get

19:21

there we had to pass through some

19:24

terrible experiments.

19:27

When the industrial revolution came

19:28

along nobody knew how to build a a

19:33

benign industrial society. So people

19:36

experimented.

19:38

One big experiment was European

19:40

imperialism. Many people thought that to

19:43

build an industrial society means

19:45

building an empire. Unless you have an

19:47

empire that controls the sources of the

19:51

raw materials you need, iron, coal,

19:54

rubber, cotton, whatever. And unless you

19:58

control the markets, you will not be

20:00

able to survive as an industrial

20:02

society. And there was a very close link

20:06

also conceptually

20:08

between building an industrial society

20:11

and building an empire. And all the

20:14

leaders the the the initial leaders of

20:17

the industrial revolution built empires.

20:20

Not just Britain and and France also

20:23

small countries like Belgium also Japan

20:25

when it joined the industrial revolution

20:28

it immediately set about conquering an

20:31

empire. Another tribal experiment was

20:35

Soviet communism. They also thought how

20:38

do you build an industrial society? You

20:41

build a communist dictatorship. And it

20:43

was the same with Nazism. You cannot

20:45

separate communism and Nazism from the

20:48

industrial revolution. You could not

20:50

have created a communist or a Nazi

20:53

totalitarian regime in the 18th century.

20:56

If you don't have trains, if you don't

20:58

have electricity, if you don't have

21:00

radio, you cannot create a totalitarian

21:02

regime. So these are just a few examples

21:06

of the failed experiments. You know, you

21:09

try to adapt to something completely

21:11

new, you very often uh um experiment and

21:16

some of your experiments fail. And if we

21:20

now have to go in the 21st century

21:23

through the same process, okay, we now

21:26

have not radio and and trains, we now

21:29

have AI and bioengineering. And we again

21:32

need to experiment perhaps with new

21:35

empires, perhaps with new totalitarian

21:37

regimes in order to discover how to

21:40

build a benign AI society, then we are

21:44

doomed as a specy. we will not be able

21:47

to survive another round of imperialist

21:51

wars and totalitarian regimes. So

21:54

anybody who thinks hey we've passed

21:56

through the industrial revolution with

21:58

all the prophecies of doom in the end we

22:00

got it right. No if as a historian I I

22:04

would say that I would give humanity a C

22:06

minus on how we adapted to the

22:08

industrial revolution. If we get a C

22:11

minus again in the 21st century that's

22:13

the end of us. It seems quite trivial to

22:18

many that

22:20

the AI revolution has seemed to begun

22:24

with large language models. And when I

22:26

read sapiens, this book I have here,

22:30

language was so central to what made us

22:32

powerful as homo sapiens.

22:34

In the beginning was the word. I didn't

22:37

say it. You know, it's a it's a very

22:40

very widespread idea

22:43

that um ultimately our power is based on

22:46

words. Uh the reason that we controlled

22:49

the world and not the chimpanzeee or the

22:51

elephants is because we had a much more

22:53

sophisticated language

22:55

which enabled us again to tell these

22:57

stories.

22:59

stories about ancestral spirits and

23:02

about guardian gods and about our tribe,

23:07

our nation, which formed the basis for

23:09

cooperation. And because we could

23:12

cooperate, you could have a thousand

23:14

people, a thousand humans cooperating in

23:16

a tribe, whereas the Neandertos could

23:18

cooperate only on the level of say 50 or

23:21

100 individuals. This is why we rule the

23:23

world and not the Neandertos. And you

23:25

look at every subsequent

23:28

kind of growth in human power and uh you

23:32

see the same thing that uh ultimately

23:36

you tell a story with words and language

23:40

is like the master key that unlocks all

23:44

the doors of our civilization.

23:47

Whether it's cathedrals or whether it's

23:49

banks, they're based on language, on

23:52

stories we tell.

23:54

that again it's very obvious in the case

23:56

of religion

23:58

but also if you think about the world's

24:00

financial system so money has no value

24:04

except in the stories that we tell and

24:06

believe each other if you think about

24:10

gold coins or paper bank notes or

24:13

cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin um they

24:16

have no value in themselves you cannot

24:19

eat them or drink them or do anything

24:21

useful with them but you have people

24:24

telling you very compelling stories

24:26

about the value of these things and if

24:29

enough people believe the story then it

24:32

works.

24:32

They're also protected by language like

24:34

my cryptocurrency is protected by a

24:37

bunch of words.

24:38

Yeah. Uh they're created by words

24:42

and they they function with with words

24:44

and and and and symbols.

24:47

Uh when you communicate with your banker

24:49

it's it's with words. I mean what

24:51

happens when AI can uh uh create deep

24:55

fakes of your everything, your voice,

24:57

your image, uh the the way you talk, the

25:01

type of words you use. So there is

25:03

already an arms race between banks and

25:06

fraudsters. I mean we want the easiest

25:08

communication with our banker. I just

25:10

pick up the phone, I tell a few words,

25:11

and they transfer a million dollars. But

25:14

at the same time, I also want want to be

25:16

protected from an AI that impersonates

25:19

my my voice and tone of tone of voice

25:21

and and whatever. And this is becoming

25:24

difficult. But on a deeper level, again,

25:28

AI could create because money is

25:31

ultimately made of words, of stories.

25:35

AI could create new kinds of money.

25:39

uh the same way that you know

25:40

cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin have been

25:42

created simply by somebody telling

25:44

people a story and enough people finding

25:47

this story convincing. And I I guess as

25:50

a CEO and as an as an entrepreneur, you

25:52

know that if you want to get

25:55

investments,

25:57

what really gets investments is a good

25:59

story.

26:01

And what happens to the financial system

26:04

if increasingly our financial stories

26:07

are told by AI?

26:10

And what happens to the financial system

26:13

and even to the political system

26:16

if AI eventually creates new financial

26:21

devices that humans cannot understand?

26:25

Already today much of the activity

26:30

on the world markets is being done by

26:33

algorithms

26:35

at such a speed and with such complexity

26:38

that most people don't understand what's

26:40

happening there.

26:41

I I if you had to guess what is the

26:44

percentage of people in the world today

26:46

that really understand the financial

26:48

system

26:50

what would be your kind of

26:52

less than 1%.

26:53

Less than 1%. Okay. Let's be kind of

26:55

conservative about it. 1% let's say.

26:57

Okay.

26:58

Fast forward 10 or 20 years. AI creates

27:02

such complicated financial devices that

27:05

there is not a single human being on

27:06

earth that understand finance anymore.

27:10

What are the implications for politics?

27:13

Like you vote for a government but none

27:16

of the humans in the government, not the

27:18

prime minister, not the finance

27:19

minister, nobody understand the

27:21

financial system. They just rely on AI

27:26

to tell them what is happening.

27:29

Is this still a democracy? Is this still

27:31

a a human form of government in any way?

27:34

What do you say to someone that hears

27:35

that and goes, "Ah, that's just that's

27:37

nonsense. That's never going to happen."

27:40

Why not? I mean, let's look back 15

27:43

years to the last big financial crisis

27:45

in 2007208.

27:48

This financial crisis to a large extent

27:51

began with these extremely complicated

27:54

financial devices CDOS's

27:57

what's the acronym collateral depth

27:59

something I don't even know what the

28:01

word letter stands for you had these

28:03

kind of whiz kids in Wall Street

28:05

inventing a new financial device that

28:08

nobody except them really understood

28:10

which is why also it wasn't regulated

28:12

effectively by the banks and the

28:14

governments and it worked well for a

28:17

couple of years and then it brought down

28:19

the world's financial system

28:22

and um what happens if now AI's comes

28:26

with even more sophisticated financial

28:28

devices

28:29

and for a couple of years everything

28:31

works well they make trillions of

28:33

dollars for us and then one day it

28:36

doesn't one day the system collapses and

28:40

nobody understands what is happening and

28:44

uh again it's not that you didn't go to

28:47

college or whatever. No, it's just

28:49

objectively the complexity of the system

28:53

has reached a point when only an AI

28:58

is able to crunch the numbers, is able

29:00

to process enough data to really get to

29:06

really grasp the shape the dynamics of

29:10

of the financial system.

29:11

We're already there though. You know, I

29:13

think if anyone does understand how the

29:15

financial system works and the markets

29:16

work, it is a bunch of

29:19

homo sapiens relying on a computer to

29:21

tell it something and it it trusting

29:24

that computer's calculations.

29:26

Yeah. And and this will get more and

29:29

more complicated and and and

29:31

sophisticated. And for people who say

29:34

no, it's not going to happen, the

29:36

question is what is stopping it? I mean,

29:40

you know, in all the discussions about

29:42

AI,

29:44

the kind of dangers that draw people's

29:46

attention, like the poster child of AI

29:50

dangers is things like AI creating a new

29:54

virus that kills billions of people, a

29:57

new pandemic. So you a lot of people

29:59

concerned about how do we prevent an AI

30:02

by itself or maybe some small terrorist

30:05

organization or even a 16-year-old

30:07

teenager giving an AI a task to create a

30:12

dangerous virus and release it to the

30:14

world. How do we prevent this? And this

30:15

is a serious concern and we should be

30:17

concerned about it. But this gets a lot

30:20

more attention than the question, how do

30:23

we prevent the financial system from

30:26

becoming so complicated that humans can

30:29

no longer understand it?

30:32

And I see a lot of regulations

30:35

being uh at least considered how to

30:39

prevent AI from creating dangerous new

30:41

viruses. Um I don't see any kind of

30:45

effort to keep the financial system at a

30:49

level that humans understand it.

30:52

Why do you think that is?

30:54

U

30:55

I mean I had a guess. My guess was why

30:58

would the UK

30:59

Mhm.

30:59

cut off then, you know, why would they

31:01

give themselves a disadvantage?

31:02

Exactly.

31:03

When you know there it just means that

31:04

the UK will suffer and if America is

31:06

using a really advanced AI algorithm to

31:08

get ahead, we have to keep up.

31:10

Yeah. It's it's the logic of of the arms

31:13

race. And again, it's not all bad. I

31:15

mean, you have a better financial

31:16

system. Uh you have a more prosperous

31:18

economy. I mean, money isn't bad. I

31:21

mean, it's the basis for almost all

31:23

human cooperation.

31:25

And a lot of financial devices in the

31:27

end, if you think what are they, they

31:30

are devices to establish trust between

31:33

people, especially trust between

31:35

strangers. And money in essence is a

31:38

device for establishing trust. I don't

31:41

know you, you don't know me, but we both

31:43

trust this gold coin or piece of paper

31:47

so we can cooperate on uh uh uh sharing

31:51

food or creating a a medicine.

31:55

And the most sophisticated financial

31:57

devices, they basically do the same

31:59

thing. Stocks and bonds and these

32:02

CDOS's, they are a method to establish

32:05

trust. And when you open a new bank

32:08

account, the most important thing is how

32:11

do I trust the bank to really uh h take

32:16

care of my money and to follow my

32:17

instructions but not to be open to fraud

32:20

and things like that. And again, you as

32:22

as as an investor

32:24

um when you try to get money from from

32:26

from or you as an entrepreneur when when

32:29

you try to get money from investors, the

32:31

biggest issue is always trust.

32:34

And if somebody can comes up can can

32:37

come up with a new uh uh way to

32:40

establish trust between people, that's a

32:43

good thing. But if this new way

32:49

increasingly depends on non-human

32:52

intelligence on again on systems that

32:56

humans cannot understand. That's the big

32:59

question. What happens to human society

33:02

when the trust that is at the basis of

33:07

all social interactions

33:09

is actually no longer trust in humans.

33:14

It's trust in a non-human intelligence

33:18

that we don't fully understand and that

33:20

we cannot anticipate. And part of the

33:24

problem with regulating AI or AI safety,

33:28

it goes back to what we discussed

33:30

earlier that AI is different from

33:33

printing presses or radio sets or even

33:35

atom bonds.

33:37

If you want to make nuclear energy safe,

33:42

then you need to think about all the

33:44

different ways that uh I don't know a

33:47

nuclear power station can uh uh uh can

33:50

have an accident.

33:52

And I guess there is a limited number of

33:55

things that can go wrong. And ideally if

33:59

if you think hard, if you have if you

34:01

have enough people thinking hard enough,

34:04

you can make safe nuclear reactors, safe

34:08

nuclear power stations.

34:10

Now, but AI is fundamentally different

34:14

because AI keeps changing. It keeps

34:17

reacting to the world. It keeps reacting

34:20

to you coming up with new inventions,

34:24

new ideas, new decisions. So making AI

34:28

safe is a bit like making a nuclear

34:30

reactor safe taking into account the

34:32

fact that the nuclear reactor can decide

34:35

to change

34:36

in ways that you can't anticipate and

34:39

even worse it can react to you. So if

34:44

you build a particular safety mechanism

34:46

for the nuclear reactor, what happens if

34:49

the nuclear reactor say oh they build

34:51

this mechanism let's do that to h

34:54

somehow get around the safety mechanism.

34:57

We don't have this problem with nuclear

34:58

reactors. But this is the problem with

35:01

AI. We are trying to contain something

35:04

which is an independent agent and which

35:08

might actually come to understand us

35:11

better than we understand it. I'm really

35:15

curious about how this will impact you

35:19

know you talked about elected officials

35:21

there and how their systems will be sort

35:22

of um dri their financial decision-m

35:26

might be driven by algorithms

35:28

but government's an authority itself

35:32

I've pondered recently whether there'll

35:34

come a day in the notsodistant future

35:37

where we might vote for an algorithm

35:40

where we might vote for an AI to be our

35:43

government. Is that crazy thinking?

35:46

I think we we we're quite a long way off

35:48

from there. We would still want humans

35:51

at least in the symbolic role of being

35:54

the prime minister, the the member of

35:56

parliament, whatever, the president.

35:59

The real problem is that increasingly

36:02

these humans could be kind of

36:05

figureheads or or puppets when the real

36:08

decisions, the most consequential

36:11

decisions are uh are made by algorithms.

36:15

be partly because the the the um it will

36:19

just be too complicated for the humans

36:23

at the top to understand the situation

36:28

or to understand the different options.

36:30

So going back to the financial example.

36:32

So imagine that you know it's it's 4:00

36:34

in the morning. There is a phone call uh

36:37

to the prime minister from the finance

36:40

algorithm

36:42

telling the P the prime minister that we

36:44

are facing a financial meltdown

36:47

uh and that we have to do something

36:50

within the next I don't know 30 minutes

36:52

to prevent a national or global

36:56

financial meltdown. And there are like

36:58

three options and the algorithm

37:00

recommends option A and there is just

37:03

not enough time to explain to the prime

37:05

minister how did the algorithm reach the

37:08

conclusion and even what is the meaning

37:11

of these different options

37:14

and again people think about this

37:17

scenario mostly in relation to war.

37:20

Mhm. that what happens if you have an

37:22

algorithm in charge of the your security

37:26

system and it it alerts you to a massive

37:30

incoming cyber attack and you have to

37:33

react immediately and this could if you

37:36

react in in a specific way this could

37:38

mean war with another nation but you

37:41

just don't have enough time to

37:44

understand how the algorithm reached the

37:47

decision and how the algorithm was also

37:51

able to determine that of the all the

37:52

different options, this is the best

37:54

option.

37:56

Do you think that humans believe we're

37:57

more complicated and special than we

37:59

actually are?

38:01

Because I think part of much many many

38:03

of the rebuttals when we talk about

38:04

artificial intelligence stem back to

38:07

this idea that we're in, you know, we're

38:09

like innately genius, creative,

38:13

spiritual, special,

38:17

you know, um artificial intelligence

38:22

like our our intelligence is somewhat

38:24

divine or

38:27

we've got free will and you know we

38:29

Yeah. Yeah, I mean it's

38:32

if the argument is we have free will, we

38:37

have a divine soul and therefore no

38:41

algorithm will will ever be able to

38:43

understand us and to predict our

38:46

decisions or to manipulate us then this

38:49

is a very common argument but it's

38:50

obviously nonsensical. I mean even

38:53

before AI uh it was uh even with

38:57

previous technology it was possible to a

39:01

large extent to predict people's

39:03

behavior and to manipulate them and AI

39:07

just takes it to the next level. Now

39:10

with regard to the discussion of of free

39:12

will

39:13

my my position is you cannot start with

39:17

the assumption that humans have free

39:20

will. If you start with this assumption

39:24

then it's uh actually is very

39:28

it it makes you very incurious lacking

39:32

curiosity

39:33

about about yourself about human beings.

39:37

It kind of closes off the investigation

39:39

before it began.

39:41

Um you assume that any decision you make

39:44

is just a result of my free will. Why

39:47

did I choose this politician, this

39:49

product, uh uh this spouse? Because it's

39:52

my free will. And if this is your

39:55

position, there is nothing to

39:57

investigate. You just assume you have

39:59

this kind of divine spark within you

40:02

that makes all the decisions and there

40:04

is nothing to investigate there.

40:08

Um I would say no start investigating

40:12

and you'll probably discover that there

40:15

are a lot of factors whether it's

40:18

external factors like cultural

40:21

traditions and also internal factors

40:24

like biological mechanisms that shape

40:27

your decisions. you chose this

40:29

politician or this spouse because of

40:33

certain cultural traditions and because

40:36

of certain biological mechanisms, your

40:39

DNA, your uh uh brain structure,

40:42

whatever. And this actually makes it

40:45

possible for you to get to know yourself

40:48

better. Now if after a long

40:51

investigation

40:53

you've reached the conclusion that yes

40:55

there are cultural influences, there are

40:59

political influences, there are genetic

41:02

and neurological influences, but still

41:05

there is a certain percentage of my

41:09

decision that cannot be explained by any

41:11

of these things. Then okay, call it free

41:14

will and we can discuss it. But don't

41:18

start with this assumption because then

41:21

you lose the incentive to explore

41:24

yourself.

41:26

And anybody who embarks on such a

41:29

process of self exploration, whether

41:32

it's in therapy, whether it's in

41:34

meditation, whether it's in the

41:36

laboratory of a brain scientist or uh as

41:40

a historian in the archive, you will be

41:43

amazed to discover how much of your

41:47

decisions are not the result of some

41:50

mystical free will. They are the result

41:53

of cultural and biological factors. And

41:56

this also means that you are vulnerable

42:00

to being deciphered and manipulated

42:04

by political parties, by corporations,

42:08

by AI. People who have this kind of

42:11

mystical belief in free will are the

42:13

easiest people to manipulate

42:16

because they don't think they can be

42:18

manipulated.

42:20

Uh and obviously they can. We humans

42:23

should get used to the idea that we are

42:25

no longer mysterious souls. We are now

42:28

hackable animals. That's what we are.

42:31

You said that at the World Economic

42:33

Forum.

42:34

Yeah. Again, this is the same point

42:38

basically that it's now possible to hack

42:40

human beings. Not just to hack our

42:42

smartphones, our bank accounts, our

42:44

computers, but to really hack our

42:46

brains, our minds, and to uh uh predict

42:50

our behavior and manipulate our behavior

42:53

more than in any previous time in

42:55

history.

42:56

The other line that you said uh which

42:58

really made me think and ponder was

43:01

um

43:03

as previously human life was about the

43:05

drama of decision-m and without this we

43:07

won't have a meaning in life.

43:10

Yeah.

43:11

that if you look, you know, at politics,

43:14

at religion and at at culture,

43:17

people told the stories about their

43:20

lives or the lives of people in general

43:23

as a kind of of drama of decision

43:26

making.

43:26

Mhm.

43:27

That you reach a particular junction in

43:30

life and you need to choose you need to

43:33

choose between good and evil. You need

43:36

to choose between political parties. You

43:38

need to choose your what to study at

43:40

university or where to work, what kind

43:43

of job to to to apply to.

43:46

And our stories revolved around these

43:49

decisions.

43:52

And what happens to human life if

43:55

increasingly the power to make decisions

43:59

is taken from us?

44:01

And increasingly it's algorithms

44:04

making all these decisions for us or

44:08

about us.

44:09

Is that possible?

44:10

It's already happening. Increasingly,

44:12

you know, you apply to a bank to get a

44:14

loan. In many places, it's no longer a

44:17

human banker who is making this decision

44:21

about you whether to give you a loan,

44:23

whether to give you a mortgage. It's an

44:24

algorithm analyzing

44:28

billions of bits of data about you and

44:30

about of millions of other customers or

44:33

previous loans determining whether you

44:36

are creditw worthy or not. And if you

44:39

ask the bank if they refuse to give you

44:42

a loan and you ask the bank why didn't

44:44

you give me a loan and the bank says we

44:47

don't know. the the computer said no and

44:49

we just believe our our our computer our

44:52

algorithm and it's happening also in the

44:55

judicial system increasingly that uh um

44:59

various judicial decisions verdicts like

45:02

for how many like the judge decided that

45:05

you committed some crime the sentence

45:09

whether to send you to two months or

45:11

eight months or two years in prison is

45:13

increasingly determined by an algorithm

45:17

uh you apply to a place at university,

45:19

you apply to a job. This too is

45:22

increasingly decided by algorithms.

45:24

Dating

45:26

uh dating. Yes. I mean even um even un

45:30

unknown unbeknownst to you, the

45:33

algorithms of the dating apps that

45:36

you're using are shaping your romantic

45:40

life. But what in a world of you know

45:43

robotics and artificial intelligence why

45:45

do I need to find a person at all?

45:48

Why not just have a relationship with

45:49

with a robot or with an AI?

45:52

Yeah. Uh we do see the beginning of of

45:56

of this that people are building more

45:59

and more intimate relationships with

46:02

non-human intelligences with AIs and

46:05

bots and and so forth. And this raises a

46:09

lot of of difficult and and profound

46:13

questions. Now, part of the problem is

46:16

that the AIS are built to mimic intimacy

46:23

that the the ability intimacy is an

46:27

extremely powerful thing. Not just in

46:29

romance, also in the market, also in

46:33

politics. If you want to change

46:35

somebody's mind about anything,

46:38

political issue, a commercial uh

46:40

preference, intimacy is kind of the most

46:45

powerful weapon.

46:47

And

46:49

somebody you really trust, somebody you

46:52

have intimate relationships with will be

46:54

able to change your views on a lot of

46:57

things more than uh someone you see on

46:59

TV or just an an article you read in

47:03

newspaper. There is a huge incentive for

47:06

the creators of AIS to create AIS that

47:10

are able to forge intimate relationships

47:12

with humans.

47:15

And um this makes us extremely

47:17

vulnerable to this new type of

47:21

manipulation

47:23

that was previously just unimaginable

47:25

cuz loneliness is at you know all-time

47:28

highs especially in the sort of western

47:30

world and

47:31

sexlessness and I I was reading some

47:33

stats about how the like body bottom 50%

47:36

of men in particular are having almost

47:39

no sex relative to the top sort of 10%

47:42

and you think you know this disparacy

47:44

the rise of digitalization, loneliness,

47:46

we're in our homes on screens more than

47:48

ever before.

47:49

And then you hear about this industry of

47:51

AI and sex dolls and all this and you

47:53

just wonder, you play it forward and go,

47:55

yeah, it's it's going there. And and the

47:57

thing is that it it's not that that the

48:01

humans are so stupid or something that

48:04

they they they kind of project something

48:07

onto the AI and fall in love with an AI

48:09

chatbot. The AI is deliberately

48:14

built, created, trained to fool us. To

48:19

the same way, you know, you look at the

48:21

previous 10 years, there was a big

48:25

battle for human attention. There was a

48:27

battle between different social media

48:30

giants and what whatever how to grab

48:33

human attention and they created

48:36

algorithms that were really amazing at

48:41

grabbing people's attention

48:43

and now they are doing the same thing

48:45

but with intimacy and we are extremely

48:49

exposed. We are extremely vulnerable to

48:51

it. Now the big problem is and and again

48:54

this is where it it gets kind of really

48:56

philosophical

48:58

that

49:00

what humans really want or need from a

49:03

relationship is to be in touch with

49:07

another conscious entity.

49:10

H an intimate relationship is not just

49:13

about providing my needs.

49:17

Then it's exploitative. Then it's

49:18

abusive. If you're in a relationship and

49:21

the only thing you think about is how

49:24

how would I feel better? How would my

49:27

needs be provided for? Then this is a

49:29

very abusive situation.

49:32

Uh a a really healthy relationship is

49:35

when it goes both ways. You also care

49:38

about the feelings and the needs of the

49:41

other person of the other entity.

49:45

Now

49:46

what happens if the other entity has no

49:49

feelings, has no emotional needs because

49:53

it it has no consciousness. That's the

49:55

big question.

49:57

And there is a huge confusion between

50:00

consciousness and intelligence. AI is

50:03

artificial intelligence.

50:06

But what exactly is the relation between

50:09

intelligence and consciousness?

50:12

Now intelligence is the ability to solve

50:15

problems,

50:17

to win a chess, to invest money, to

50:20

drive a car. This is intelligence.

50:22

Consciousness is the ability to feel

50:24

things like pain and pleasure and love

50:27

and hate and sadness and anger and and

50:30

so many other things. Now in humans and

50:33

also in other mammals, intelligence and

50:36

consciousness actually go together. We

50:39

solve problems by having feelings.

50:43

But computers are fundamentally

50:45

different. They are already more

50:49

intelligent than us in at least several

50:52

narrow fields,

50:54

but they have zero consciousness.

50:58

They don't feel anything. When they beat

51:02

us at chess or go or some other game,

51:05

they don't feel joyful and happy. If

51:07

they make a wrong move, they don't feel

51:10

sad or or angry. They have zero

51:13

consciousness. As far as we can tell,

51:16

they might soon be far more intelligent

51:20

than us and still have zero

51:24

consciousness. Now what happens when you

51:27

are in a relationship with an entity

51:30

which is far more intelligent than you

51:34

and can also imitate mimic

51:38

consciousness. It it knows how to solve

51:41

the problem of making you feel as if it

51:46

is conscious

51:48

but it still has no feelings of its own.

51:52

And this is a very disturbing vision of

51:56

the future.

51:58

It opens us up to manipulation. Is that

52:00

what you're saying?

52:01

It first of all it opens us to

52:03

manipulation but also it uh uh the the

52:08

big question what does it mean for the

52:10

health of our own mind of our own

52:14

psyche?

52:16

If we are in a relationship or or many

52:19

of our important relationship in life

52:21

are with non-concious entities

52:25

that uh that they don't really have any

52:28

feelings of their own. Again, they are

52:29

very good

52:30

at faking

52:31

at faking it. They're very good at

52:33

catering to our feelings,

52:36

but um again it's just it's just

52:41

manipulation in the end. Are you

52:43

optimistic about the happiness of humans

52:45

going forward? Or do you think happiness

52:47

will take its own? You know, I've heard

52:49

you talk about how happiness might just

52:51

become a bio biochemical,

52:53

I don't know, prescription or something.

52:56

Yeah. I mean, we don't have a good track

52:59

record with regard to happiness. If you

53:02

look at the last 100,000 years from say

53:05

the stone age until the 21st century,

53:08

you see a dramatic rise in human power.

53:12

We are thousands of times more powerful

53:15

as a species and as individuals than we

53:18

were in the stone age. We are not

53:21

thousands of times happier. We just

53:24

don't really know how to translate power

53:28

into happiness. And this is very clear

53:31

when you look at the lives of the most

53:33

powerful people in the world

53:36

that there is no correlation between how

53:39

rich and powerful you are and how happy

53:42

you are as as as as a person. I mean I I

53:46

don't have the I don't get the

53:48

impression that people like I don't know

53:51

Vladimir Putin or Elon Musk are the

53:53

happiest people in the world

53:56

even though they are they are some of

53:57

the most powerful people in the world.

54:01

So there is no reason to think that as

54:03

humanity gets even more powerful in

54:06

coming decades we will get any happier.

54:10

And understanding happiness is about

54:13

understanding the deep dynamics of of

54:16

not not even the brain but of the mind

54:20

of consciousness

54:21

and we are just not there yet.

54:25

Um we are very very good and and the

54:27

related problem is that humans usually

54:31

understand how to manipulate something

54:34

long before they understand the

54:37

consequences of the manipulations.

54:40

If you look at the outside world, at the

54:44

ecological system, we have learned how

54:47

to cut forests, how to build huge dams

54:51

over rivers long before we understood

54:55

what will be the consequences for the

54:57

ecological system. Which is why we now

55:01

have this ecological crisis. We

55:03

manipulated the world without

55:06

understanding the consequences.

55:09

As something similar might happen with

55:12

the world inside us,

55:15

with more powerful medicines, with brain

55:18

computer interfaces, with genetic

55:21

engineering and and so forth, we are

55:24

gaining the power to manipulate our

55:27

internal world, the world within us.

55:30

But again, the power to manipulate is

55:34

not the same thing as understanding the

55:37

complexity of the system and the

55:39

consequences of the manipulation.

55:41

A related manipulation there is

55:43

immortality and our pursuit of it. I've

55:45

sat with people on this podcast who are

55:47

committing their lives to staying alive

55:48

forever. And there's a through line

55:51

there between our desire to be immortal,

55:54

you know, the rise in the scientific

55:57

discoveries that are enabling that and

55:59

our happiness. I I've often thought, you

56:01

know, much of the reason why things are

56:04

special in my life is because they're

56:05

scarce,

56:06

including my time.

56:07

Yeah.

56:08

And I I always I almost wonder about the

56:10

psychological um

56:13

issues I would face if I knew I was

56:16

immortal. Like if I knew that

56:19

the partner I'm with doesn't come at the

56:22

expense of another one I can be with,

56:24

you know, at 30 years old.

56:26

And the car, you know, the choices you

56:28

make, I think what makes them scaled

56:30

are their scarcity.

56:32

Mhm.

56:32

Against the backdrop of an of a finite

56:35

life.

56:37

Uh yeah, it will definitely change

56:38

everything if you think about relations

56:40

between parents and children. So if you

56:43

live forever, so the 20 years you raised

56:47

uh uh you spent raising somebody 2,000

56:49

years ago, what do they mean now? But I

56:52

think long before we get to that point,

56:55

I mean, most of these people are going

56:57

to be incredibly disappointed because it

57:00

will not happen within their lifetime.

57:02

Another related problem is that we will

57:05

not get to immortality. We will get to

57:08

something that maybe should be called a

57:10

mortality.

57:12

that immortality is that like you're

57:14

you're God, you can never die no matter

57:17

what happens. It's even if we solve

57:21

cancer and Alzheimer and demensia and

57:24

whatever, we will not get there. We will

57:27

get to kind of a life without a

57:30

definitive expiry date that you can live

57:34

indefinitely. You can go every 10 years

57:37

to a clinic and get yourself rejuven

57:40

rejuvenated, but if a bus runs you over

57:45

or your airplanes explodes or a

57:48

terrorist kills you, you're dead and

57:51

you're not coming back to life. Now,

57:55

realizing that you have a chance to live

57:58

forever, but if there is an accident,

58:00

you die. This creates a level of anxiety

58:04

and terror unlike anything that we know

58:07

in our own lives. I think the people who

58:10

will will be in that situation will be

58:13

extremely anxious and miserable.

58:17

And another issue is you know people

58:21

often spend so much effort trying to get

58:26

gain something get something without

58:29

really understanding what are they going

58:32

why what will you do with it what is so

58:34

good about it you know like people spend

58:36

so much effort to to get have more and

58:38

more money instead of thinking what will

58:41

I actually do with that money so it's

58:44

the same with you know the people who

58:46

want to extend life forever. What is so

58:49

good about life that what will you do

58:52

with it?

58:53

And if you know it, why don't you do it

58:56

already? That uh you know I hear people

58:59

saying about how how precious human

59:02

consciousness is

59:05

why why do you think it's so precious

59:07

and whatever it is, why don't you do it

59:12

right now? I mean why spend your life

59:16

developing some kind of treatment that

59:20

will uh extend your consciousness for a

59:24

thousand years.

59:26

Just spend your time doing now whatever

59:31

you think you would be doing with your

59:33

consciousness a thousand years from now.

59:35

So if they were to say but it'll give me

59:37

more time with my family. You're saying

59:39

just instead of wasting your time just

59:40

like

59:41

Exactly. So, you know, somebody who has

59:43

no time for their family at all right

59:45

now because they are busy developing the

59:48

kind of uh uh uh miracle cure that will

59:51

enable them to spend time with with

59:53

their family in 200 years. This makes no

59:56

sense.

59:59

I think about the disparity that

60:01

artificial intelligence and these forms

60:03

of sort of bioengineering might create

60:05

because it's conceivable that the rich

60:08

will gain access to these technologies

60:10

first.

60:10

Yeah. And then, you know, when we think

60:12

about bioengineering,

60:15

being able to sort of play with our

60:16

genetic code, that means if I, for

60:18

example, managed to get my hands on some

60:20

kind of bio engineering treatment to

60:23

make sure that my kids were maybe a

60:25

little bit smarter, maybe a little bit

60:27

stronger, whatever, then you're going to

60:29

start a sort of genetic chain of

60:32

modified children that are superior in

60:35

intelligence and strength and whatever

60:37

else might be desirable. M

60:38

and then you have this disparity in

60:40

society where you have like the you know

60:42

one humans one set of humans are on a

60:44

completely different exponential

60:45

trajectory and the other humans are you

60:48

know

60:49

yeah behind

60:51

this is extremely dangerous uh I think

60:54

we just shouldn't go there that we

60:57

shouldn't invest a lot of resources

61:02

efforts in developing these kinds of uh

61:06

upgrades and enhancements

61:08

that are very likely, at least at first,

61:12

to be the preserve of a small elite and

61:16

to translate economic inequality into

61:20

biological inequality and to basically

61:23

split the human species to to split homo

61:27

sapiens into, you know, a ruling class

61:30

of superhumans and and the rest of us.

61:33

This is a very very dangerous

61:35

development.

61:37

related to that is the problem that I

61:41

don't think it will be these will be

61:44

upgrades at all

61:47

what worries me is that a lot of these

61:49

things will turn out actually to be

61:51

downgrades

61:53

that

61:55

we again we don't understand

61:58

our bodies our brains our minds well

62:00

enough to know what will be the

62:03

consequences of tweaking our genetic

62:07

code or of um I don't know implanting

62:11

all kinds of devices into our brains.

62:15

People who think that this will enable

62:18

them let's say to upgrade their

62:21

intelligence

62:24

they don't know what the side effects

62:26

will be. It could be that the same

62:28

treatment that increases your

62:31

intelligence also decreases your

62:34

compassion or your spiritual depth or

62:38

whatever. And the danger is that

62:40

especially if this technology is in the

62:42

hands of powerful corporations, armies,

62:47

governments,

62:50

they will enhance

62:52

those qualities that they want like

62:56

intelligence and like discipline

62:59

while disregarding

63:01

uh other qualities which could be even

63:04

more important for for human flourishing

63:07

like compassion.

63:09

or like autistic sensitivity or like

63:11

spirituality. If I think about somebody

63:13

again like Putin, what would he do with

63:16

this type of technology then yes, he

63:18

would like an army of super intelligent

63:21

and super loyal soldiers. And if these

63:24

soldiers do don't have any compassion or

63:28

any spiritual depth, all the better for

63:30

him.

63:30

But that speaks to the arms race. And

63:32

you know, you said you we think we

63:33

shouldn't, but China will see that as an

63:36

opportunity or Putin will see that as an

63:38

opportunity if the if the Western world,

63:40

if the United States or the UK don't.

63:44

And so again, it comes back to this

63:45

point of, you know, we're screwed if

63:47

we're damned if we do, we're damned if

63:48

we don't.

63:49

I'm not sure that in this case it it

63:51

works. uh because again a lot of these

63:54

upgrades are likely to have um

63:58

detrimental side effects both for the

64:02

person in question and for the society

64:04

as a whole. And I think that in this

64:07

case societies that will choose to be uh

64:12

uh

64:13

progress more slowly and safely they

64:16

will actually have an advantage. It's

64:18

like if you say, you know, there is some

64:20

other country where they don't have any

64:22

brakes on their on their cars and they

64:25

don't have any seat belts and they

64:27

release new medicines without checking

64:29

their side effects. They're moving so

64:32

fast. We are left behind. No, it makes

64:34

no sense to to to imitate them. This

64:36

will actually ruin their societies. You

64:39

don't want to imitate these kinds of of

64:42

harmful effects. Uh with development of

64:45

AI, it's different. I think there the

64:50

advantages in things like finance, like

64:53

the military will be so big that an AI

64:57

AI arms race is almost inevitable.

65:01

But with trying to kind of bioengineer

65:04

humans, if you go too fast, it will be

65:09

this self-destructive.

65:11

So we can take it most slowly and safely

65:14

and without being kind of left behind in

65:18

an arms race.

65:19

You said on the Tim Ferris podcast, the

65:21

best scenario is that homo sapiens will

65:22

disappear but in a peaceful and gradual

65:24

way and be replaced by something better.

65:26

It's quite a um uncomfortable statement

65:29

to to listen to.

65:32

I think that again the the the type of

65:34

technologies that we are now developing

65:36

when you combine them with the human

65:39

ambition

65:41

to uh um you know to to improve

65:45

ourselves

65:47

it's almost inevitable that we will use

65:51

these technologies to change ourselves.

65:54

The question is whether we will do it

65:57

slowly and responsibly enough for the

66:00

consequences to be beneficial. But the

66:03

idea that we can now develop these

66:06

extremely powerful tools of

66:08

bioengineering and AI and remain

66:12

the way we are. We'll still be the same

66:15

homo sapiens in 200 years, in 500 years,

66:18

in 1,000 years. we'll have all these

66:21

tools to connect brain to computers to

66:23

to kind of re-engineer our genetic code

66:26

and we won't do it. I think this is

66:29

unlikely.

66:30

One of the outstanding questions that I

66:31

have and one of the sort of observations

66:33

I've had is people like Sam Alman um the

66:36

founder of OpenAI that made Chat GPT

66:39

started working on universal basic

66:41

income products like Worldcoin. And I

66:43

thought, you know what, that's curious

66:45

that the people that are at the very

66:46

forefront of this AI revolution are now

66:49

trying to solve the second problem they

66:52

see coming, which is people not having

66:54

jobs. Yeah. Essentially,

66:55

is is that do you think that's a because

66:58

you know every I've spoken a lot this

67:00

year on stages and this is one of the

67:01

questions I always get asked is the

67:03

implications of AI on the and jobs as we

67:05

know it in the workforce. Mhm.

67:07

Is it realistic to believe that most

67:09

jobs will disappear as we know them

67:13

today?

67:14

I think

67:16

many jobs, maybe most jobs will

67:19

disappear, but new jobs will emerge. You

67:23

know, most jobs that people do today

67:25

didn't exist 200 years ago.

67:27

Mhm. Like this.

67:28

Uh yeah, like this. Like doing a

67:30

podcast.

67:31

And there will be new jobs.

67:34

The really big problem will be how to

67:36

retrain people.

67:39

Uh it demands a lot of financial support

67:42

also psychological support for people to

67:46

kind of relearn, retrain, reinvent

67:50

themselves and doing it not just once

67:52

but repeatedly throughout their career

67:55

throughout their lives. The AI

67:57

revolution will not be a single

67:59

watershed event like you have the big AI

68:02

revolution in 2030. You lose 60% of

68:06

jobs. You create lots of new jobs. You

68:09

have 10 difficult years. Everybody

68:11

adjusting, adapting, reskilling,

68:14

whatever, and then everything settles

68:16

down to a new equilibrium. It won't be

68:18

like that. AI is nowhere near its full

68:21

potential. So you will have a lot of

68:23

changes by 2030, even more changes by

68:27

2040, even more changes by 2050. You

68:30

will have new jobs, but the new jobs too

68:33

will change and disappear.

68:35

What new jobs?

68:37

In a world where intelligence is

68:38

disrupted, what what jobs are left?

68:40

Because you say you're going to retrain

68:42

me. I'm like, you know, I'm not going to

68:44

be able to keep up with an AI that's

68:45

retraining every second.

68:48

And I I'm not sure. I mean some of the

68:50

answers might be counterintuitive

68:53

that um

68:56

at least at present we see that AI is

68:59

extremely good at automating jobs that

69:02

only require cognitive skills but they

69:06

are not good at jobs that require motor

69:09

skills and social skills. So if you

69:12

think about say doctors and nurses, so

69:14

at least those types of doctors who are

69:19

only doing cognitive work, they

69:23

read articles, they get your medical

69:27

results, all kinds of tests and and and

69:29

and and whatever. They diagnose your

69:31

disease and they decide on a course of

69:34

treatment. This is purely cognitive

69:36

work. This is the easiest thing to

69:38

automate.

69:39

But if you think about a nurse that has

69:42

to replace a bandage to a crying child,

69:46

this is much more difficult to automate.

69:50

You don't think that's possible to

69:51

automate?

69:52

I I think it is possible, but not now.

69:54

You need very delicate motor skills and

69:57

also social skills to do that.

70:00

Did you see Elon's video the other day

70:01

with um the Tesla robot?

70:04

I see a lot of these videos. It's it's

70:06

getting the egg and it's cracking the

70:08

egg and it's going like this.

70:10

No, again I'm not saying it's

70:11

impossible. I'm just saying it will take

70:14

longer. It's more difficult. Again,

70:16

there is also the social aspect. If you

70:18

think about self-driving vehicles, the

70:21

biggest problem for self-driving

70:23

vehicles is humans. I mean, not the not

70:26

just the the human drivers, it's the

70:28

pedestrians, it's the it's the

70:30

passengers. How do you deal with a

70:33

drunken passenger? whatever.

70:36

So, uh, again, it's not impossible, but

70:38

it's much more difficult. So, again, I

70:41

think that there will be new jobs, at

70:43

least in the foreseeable future. The

70:46

problem will will be to retrain people.

70:49

And the biggest problem of all will be

70:52

on the global level, not on the national

70:54

level. I when I hear people talk about

70:57

universal basic income, the first

71:00

question to ask is, is it universal or

71:02

national?

71:04

Is it a system that let's say raises

71:09

taxes on big tech corporations in

71:12

Silicon Valley in California and uses

71:15

the money to provide basic services and

71:19

also retraining courses for people in

71:24

Ohio and Pennsylvania?

71:27

Uh or does it also apply to people in

71:30

Guatemala and Pakistan?

71:33

I mean, what happens when it becomes

71:35

cheaper to produce shirts with robots in

71:39

California than in Guatemala and in

71:41

Mexico? Uh, does Sam Alman has a vision

71:46

of the US government raising taxes in

71:48

California and sending the money to

71:50

Guatemala to support the people there?

71:53

If the answer is no, we are not talking

71:56

about universal basic income. We are

71:57

only talking about national basic income

71:59

in the US. Then what happens to the

72:02

people in Guatemala? That's the that's

72:04

the biggest question.

72:06

And a sub question to that is about how

72:08

one should be educating our our children

72:11

and our education institutions as they

72:13

are today. Because with what's to come,

72:15

um makes me wonder what what skill would

72:18

be worth investing you know 10 12 years

72:21

into a child that I had.

72:23

Um

72:25

nobody has any idea. I mean if you think

72:28

about specific skills

72:30

then this is the first time in history

72:33

when we have no idea how the job market

72:36

or how society would look like in 20

72:38

years. So we don't know what specific

72:41

skills people will need if you think

72:44

back in history. So it was never

72:47

possible to predict the future but at

72:50

least people knew what kind of skills

72:53

will be needed in a couple of decades.

72:55

If you live, I don't know, in England

72:58

in uh uh 1023,

73:02

a thousand years ago, you don't know

73:05

what will happen in in 30 years. Maybe

73:08

the Normans will invade or the Vikings

73:11

or the Scots or whoever. Maybe there'll

73:14

be an earthquake. Maybe there'll be a

73:16

new pandemic. Anything can happen. You

73:18

can't predict. But you still have a very

73:22

good idea of how the economy would look

73:25

like and how human society would look

73:27

like in the 1050s or the 1060s. You know

73:32

that most people will still be farmers.

73:35

You know it's a good idea to teach your

73:37

kids how to uh harvest wheat, how to

73:41

bake bread, how to ride a hose, how to

73:44

shoot and bow an arrow. These things

73:46

will still be necessary in 30 years. If

73:49

you now look 30 years to the future,

73:52

nobody has any idea what kind of skills

73:56

will be needed. If you think for

73:58

instance, okay, this is the age of AI,

74:01

computers, I will teach my kids how to

74:03

code computers. Maybe in 30 years,

74:06

humans no longer code anything because

74:09

AI is so much better than us at writing

74:12

code.

74:13

Um, so what should we focus on? I would

74:17

say the only thing we can be certain

74:18

about is that 30 years from now the

74:22

world will be extremely volatile,

74:25

extremely it will keep changing at an

74:27

ever rapid pace.

74:29

Do you think this is going to incre

74:31

increase the amount of conflict

74:33

because I watched a video on your

74:34

YouTube channel where you said the

74:36

return of wars?

74:36

Yeah. Uh that's one of the dangers that

74:40

there is and we see it all all over the

74:42

world now. uh like 10 years ago we were

74:45

in the most peaceful era in human

74:47

history and unfortunately this era is

74:51

over. We are now in a new era of wars

74:55

and potentially of imperialism

74:58

and we are seeing it all over the world

75:00

uh with the Russian invasion of Ukraine

75:02

now with the war in the Middle East uh

75:05

Venezuela and Guyana some East Asia war

75:09

is is is back on the table. It's not

75:13

just because of the rapid changes and

75:16

the upheavalss they cause. It's also

75:19

because um you know 10 years ago we had

75:23

a global order, the liberal order which

75:26

was far from perfect but it's still kind

75:30

of regulated relations between nations

75:33

between countries

75:35

based on an idea on on the liberal

75:39

worldview that despite our national

75:42

differences all humans share certain

75:46

basic experiences and needs and

75:49

interests. Which is why it makes sense

75:52

for us to work together to diffuse

75:55

conflicts and to uh uh um solve our

76:00

common problems. It was far from

76:03

perfect, but it did create the most

76:06

peaceful era in human history.

76:08

Then this order was repeatedly attacked

76:12

not only from outside

76:14

from forces like Russia or North Korea

76:18

or Iran that never accepted this order

76:22

but also from the inside even from the

76:24

United States uh which was the architect

76:27

to a large extent of of this order with

76:30

the election of Donald Trump which says

76:32

I don't care about any kind of global

76:35

order. I'd only care about my own

76:38

nation. And you see this way of thinking

76:42

that I only care about my the interests

76:44

of my nation more and more around the

76:47

world. Now the big question to ask is if

76:51

all the nations think like that what

76:54

regulates the relations between them

76:58

and there was no alternative nobody came

77:02

up with with the and said okay I don't

77:04

like the liberal liberal global order I

77:07

have a better suggestion

77:09

for how to manage relations between

77:12

different nations.

77:13

They just destroyed the existing order

77:17

without offering an alternative. And the

77:20

alternative to order is simply disorder.

77:24

And this is now where we find ourselves.

77:27

Do you think there's more wars on the

77:28

way?

77:29

Yes. Unless unless we reestablish order,

77:33

there will be more and worse wars uh

77:37

coming in the next few years in more and

77:39

more areas around the world.

77:42

You see defense budgets all over the

77:45

world uh uh skyrocketing

77:48

and this is a vicious circle. When your

77:51

neighbors increase their military

77:54

budget, you feel compelled to do the

77:56

same and then they increase their budget

77:59

even more. You know, when I say that the

78:02

early 21st century was the most peaceful

78:05

era in human history,

78:08

it's

78:09

one of the indications is how uh how low

78:14

the military budgets all over the world

78:17

were. For most of history, kings and

78:21

emperors and cons and sultans, they the

78:24

military was the number one item on

78:27

their budget. They spent more on their

78:31

soldiers and navies and fortresses than

78:34

on anything else. In the early 21st

78:37

century, most countries

78:40

spend something like a few percentage

78:43

points of their of their budget on on

78:47

the military. Education, health care,

78:51

welfare were a much more a much bigger

78:55

item on the budget than defense.

78:59

And this is now changing. The money is

79:02

increasingly going to tanks and missiles

79:07

and cyber weapons instead of to nurses

79:11

and and schools and and social workers.

79:15

And again, it's not inevitable. It's the

79:17

result of human decisions. The

79:20

relatively peaceful era of the early

79:22

21st century, it did not result from

79:25

some miracle. It resulted from humans

79:28

making wise decisions in previous

79:30

decades.

79:30

What are the wise decisions we need to

79:32

make now in your view?

79:33

Reinvest in in rebuilding a global order

79:39

which is based on

79:42

universal values and norms

79:44

and not just on the narrow interests of

79:48

of specific nation states.

79:50

Are you concerned that Trump might be

79:51

elected again shortly? I I think it's

79:53

very likely

79:54

and if it happens it is likely to be the

79:56

kind of like the the death blow to what

80:00

remains of the global order and he says

80:03

it and he says it openly. Now again it

80:06

should be clear that many of these

80:08

politicians

80:10

they present

80:12

a false dichotomy a false binary vision

80:16

of the world as if you have to choose

80:19

between patriotism and globalism between

80:24

being loyal to your own nation and being

80:26

loyal to some kind of I don't know

80:30

global government or whatever and this

80:32

is completely false there is no

80:35

contradiction between patriotism and

80:38

global cooperation. When we talk about

80:41

global cooperation, we definitely don't

80:43

have in mind, at least not anybody that

80:45

I know, a global government. This is an

80:48

impossible and very dangerous idea. It

80:52

simply means that um you have certain

80:55

rules and norms for how different nation

80:58

states

81:00

treat each other and and and and and and

81:03

behave towards each other. If you don't

81:06

have a system of of global norms and

81:09

values, then very quickly what you have

81:12

is just global conflict, is just wars. I

81:16

mean some people have this idea they

81:18

imagine the world as a network of

81:21

friendly fortresses

81:23

like each nation will be a fortress with

81:27

very high walls taking care of its own

81:30

interest interests but uh living on

81:35

relatively friendly terms with the

81:37

neighboring fortresses trading with them

81:40

and and and whatever. Now the main

81:42

problem with this vision is that

81:44

fortresses are almost never friendly.

81:47

Each fortress always wants a bit more

81:50

land, a bit more prosperity, a bit more

81:54

security for itself at the expense of

81:57

the neighbors.

81:59

And uh this is the high road to conflict

82:02

and to and to and to war and to war.

82:05

There's that phrase, isn't there?

82:06

Ignorance is bliss. Now, something that

82:10

your work has forced you and continues

82:12

to encourage you to not live in is

82:15

ignorance.

82:16

So, with that, one might logically

82:17

deduce that

82:19

out the window goes your bliss.

82:22

Um, are you are you happy?

82:26

I think I'm relatively happy, at least

82:29

happier than I was uh for most of my

82:32

life.

82:33

I

82:35

part of it is is that I invest a lot of

82:38

my time not just in

82:42

you know researching what is happening

82:43

in the world but also in the health of

82:47

my own mind

82:50

and

82:52

you know keeping a kind of balanced

82:56

information diet

82:59

that it's it's it's basically like with

83:01

food. You need food in order to survive

83:04

and to be healthy. But if you eat too

83:07

much or if you eat too much of the wrong

83:09

stuff, it's it's bad for you. And it's

83:12

exactly the same with information.

83:14

Information is the the food of the mind.

83:17

And if you eat too much of it of the

83:20

wrong kind, you'll get a very sick mind.

83:24

So I uh I try to to keep a very balanced

83:29

uh information diet which also includes

83:33

information fasts.

83:35

So I try to disconnect.

83:38

I um every day I dedicate two hours a

83:42

day for meditation.

83:43

Wow. And every year I go for a long

83:46

meditation retreat of between 30 and 60

83:50

days like in completely disconnecting.

83:53

No phones, no emails, not even books. Um

83:58

just observing myself, observing what is

84:02

happening inside my body and inside my

84:04

mind, getting to know myself better and

84:09

kind of digesting

84:11

all the information that I absorbed

84:16

during the rest of the year or the rest

84:17

of the day.

84:18

Have you seen a clear benefit in doing

84:20

that?

84:20

Uh yes, very very clear. I don't think I

84:23

would be able to write these books or to

84:26

do what I'm doing um without these kind

84:30

with this kind of information diet and

84:32

and without kind of devoting a lot of

84:34

time and attention to the balancing my

84:38

mind and keeping it healthy. You know so

84:40

many people spend so much time keeping

84:43

their body healthy which is very

84:45

important of course but we need to spend

84:47

equal amount of attention with with our

84:49

mind. It is as important as as our body.

84:52

When you said you don't think you'd be

84:53

able to do what you do if you didn't

84:55

take these information diets, why?

84:58

I'll just, you know, um first of all be

85:02

just overwhelmed

85:04

and uh um not have any kind of peace of

85:09

mind, not have any kind of perspective.

85:11

If you're constantly in the news cycle,

85:14

in the information cycle, you lose all

85:18

perspective. You know organic entities

85:22

unlike AIs, unlike computers, we are

85:26

cyclical entities. We need to sleep

85:30

every day. AIS don't sleep. You know,

85:33

even the stock exchange closes every

85:36

afternoon. It closes also for the

85:39

weekend or for so for Christmas. If you

85:42

think about it, this is amazing that you

85:44

know if if a war erupts in Christmas

85:49

uh uh the Wall Street will be able to

85:51

react only after a couple of days

85:55

because the people are on holiday. They

85:57

they took time off. Even the money

86:01

market takes time off. But if you give

86:05

AI full control, there will never be any

86:07

time off. it will be 24 hours a day, 365

86:12

days a a year and people just collapse.

86:17

I mean, I think part of the problem that

86:19

politicians today face is that um they

86:23

need to be on 24 hours a day because the

86:26

news cycle is on 24 hours a day. Like in

86:29

previous eras, if you're I don't know a

86:31

king in the middle ages and you you you

86:33

you ride some you go somewhere, you're

86:36

on the road in your carriage and nobody

86:39

can reach you. Even if the French are

86:42

invading, nobody can reach you. You have

86:45

some time off. If you're a prime

86:47

minister now, there is no time off. And

86:52

computers are built for it, but human

86:54

brains aren't. If you try to keep an

86:58

organic entity

87:01

awake and kind of constantly processing

87:05

information and reacting 24 hours a day,

87:08

it will very soon collapse.

87:10

It's funny, it made me think of what the

87:13

for I think it was the former Netflix

87:14

CEO or one of the Netflix CEOs or

87:16

someone said um they said, "Our biggest

87:19

competitor is sleep."

87:20

Sleep. Yeah. That's a very scary and and

87:23

very I think important line

87:25

and it's a very honest line.

87:26

It's a very honest line and it's scary

87:28

because um if people don't sleep they

87:31

collapse and eventually they die. And

87:34

this is again part of the problem that

87:37

we talked earlier about about the battle

87:39

for human attention in social media in

87:43

streaming services. Now

87:46

for many of these corporations they

87:49

measure their success by user

87:52

engagement.

87:53

The more people are engaged the more

87:56

successful we are. Now user engagement

88:00

is a very

88:02

broad definition. According to this

88:05

measurement one hour of outrage is

88:10

better than 10 minutes of joy.

88:13

And uh uh certainly better than 1 hour

88:17

of sleep

88:18

because one hour of outrage I will

88:20

consume three adverts.

88:21

Yes.

88:22

And then that means that the corporation

88:24

make $30

88:25

for example. And and from two hours of

88:28

sleep they make nothing. From 10 minutes

88:31

of joy maybe they sell only one ad.

88:34

Mhm. And but from the viewpoint of of

88:38

how humans function and how this

88:41

organism function, 10 minutes of joy are

88:44

probably better than for us than one

88:47

hour of outrage. And certainly we need

88:49

not just two hours, we need six, seven,

88:52

eight hours of sleep.

88:53

Well, this is why, you know, the

88:55

algorithms on on certain platforms,

88:58

specifically Tik Tok,

88:59

Mhm.

88:59

are just absolutely

89:02

addictive to say the least. Like I I

89:06

because they hacked us.

89:07

Yeah. They It's literally they you know

89:10

t we had you know a certain level of

89:12

addiction to the previous social

89:13

algorithms and then Tik Tok came along

89:15

and said hold my beer and they just went

89:18

for it you know and and they've won

89:21

because of that. I see 60 year olds

89:25

absolutely addicted to Tik Tok and

89:27

because they don't understand the

89:28

concept of an algorithm sometimes um and

89:31

they don't understand like the the the

89:33

advertising model and all of that stuff

89:35

it's it's hypnotism. They're like

89:37

absolutely hypnotized. My funnily enough

89:39

my driver is one of them. So my driver's

89:40

outside whenever I walk up to his car

89:43

he's just like this on Tik Tok.

89:45

He's scrolling and I had a conversation

89:46

with him last night. I'm like do you

89:48

realize that Tik Tok has your brain?

89:51

Yeah,

89:51

you know, abs, you know, and we're just

89:54

at the very foot sort of the first steps

89:57

of an exponential curve of algorithms

89:59

competing for our attention in our

90:00

brain.

90:00

We haven't seen anything yet. I mean,

90:02

these algorithms, they are what like 10

90:05

years old

90:06

in terms of you think about these social

90:08

media algorithms and the algorithms that

90:10

get to know you personally to hack your

90:11

brain and then grab your attention. It's

90:14

they are 10 years old

90:16

and the companies die if they don't beat

90:18

the other algorithms. So, like Twitter

90:20

now, when Elon took it over, and I think

90:22

people will relate to this if you use

90:23

Twitter, suddenly I've seen more people

90:27

having their heads blown off

90:28

and being hit by cars on Twitter than

90:30

I'd ever seen in the previous 10 years.

90:32

It's and I think someone at Twitter's

90:34

gone, listen, this company's going to

90:35

die unless we we increase time spent on

90:38

this platform and show more ads. So,

90:40

let's start serving up a more addictive

90:41

algorithm. And that requires a response

90:43

from Instagram and the other plat. And

90:45

so it's a real,

90:46

you know, Elon has this other company,

90:48

the Boring Company.

90:50

Yeah.

90:50

Which is about boring tunnels, of

90:52

course. But actually, it might be a good

90:54

idea to make Twitter more boring and to

90:58

make Tik Tok more boring. I mean, I know

90:59

it's it's a very bad

91:01

kind of business decision.

91:04

But I don't think humanity will survive

91:09

unless we have more boredom.

91:13

If you ask me what is wrong with the

91:15

world in 2023

91:17

is that uh everybody is far too excited.

91:21

And if I had to kind of summarize what's

91:24

wrong in one word, the word is excited.

91:27

And people don't understand the meaning

91:29

of this word. People think that excited

91:32

means happy. Like two people meet, I am

91:35

so excited to meet you. I have a new

91:37

idea. I publish a new book. Whatever.

91:39

Oh, this is such a such an exciting

91:41

idea. such an exciting book. And

91:44

exciting isn't happy. Exciting isn't

91:48

always good. Sometimes, yes, sometimes

91:49

it's good to be excited. An organism

91:52

that is excited all the time dies. The

91:56

meaning of excitement is that you know

91:59

that the body is in flight or fight

92:01

mode.

92:03

All the nerves are on, all the neurons

92:06

are firing, all the muscles are tense.

92:08

This is excitement

92:10

and very often negative things excite

92:13

us. Fear excite fear is excitement. Hate

92:17

is excitement. Anger is excitement.

92:21

And um you know it's when I meet a good

92:26

friend I'm often relaxed to meet the

92:29

friend not excited.

92:32

and

92:33

or much kind you know you think about

92:35

the political level we have far too many

92:38

exciting politicians doing very exciting

92:41

things and we need more boring

92:44

politicians

92:44

more Bidens

92:46

that do less less exciting uh uh uh

92:50

things and

92:53

but the brain is wired to pay attention

92:54

to excitement and to crave it

92:56

but the brain evolved in situations when

92:59

you didn't have a constant stream of

93:03

exciting videos. Sometimes it was on,

93:06

sometimes it was off. And now our brains

93:10

have been hacked and these

93:14

devices, technologies, they know how to

93:17

create constant excitement.

93:21

And the more this happens, we also lose

93:25

our ability, our skill to be bored. that

93:29

if we have to spend a few minutes doing

93:32

nothing somewhere waiting, we can't do

93:34

it. We immediately take out the

93:37

smartphone and start watching Tik Tok or

93:40

scrolling through Twitter or whatever.

93:42

Did you hear about that experiment where

93:43

people would rather take an electric

93:44

shock than do nothing?

93:47

Yeah. And you know you

93:51

you can't get for instance

93:54

to any level of peace of mind if you

93:58

don't know how to handle boredom.

94:01

That peace and boredom are are the same

94:04

way that excitement and outrage are

94:07

neighbors. Peace and boredom are also

94:10

neighbors. And if you don't know how to

94:13

handle boredom, if the minute there is a

94:16

hint of boredom, you run away to some

94:19

exciting thing, you will never

94:21

experience peace of mind. And people if

94:25

if if humans don't experience peace of

94:27

mind, there is no way that the world as

94:30

a whole is going to be peaceful.

94:32

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94:36

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94:38

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95:37

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95:38

the investment capital is at risk. This

95:40

communication is for information

95:42

purposes only and should not be taken as

95:44

investment advice or a financial

95:45

promotion. As you guys know, I'm a big

95:48

fan of Hule. I'm an investor in a

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company and they sponsor this podcast.

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And what I've done for you, I've put

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counter for 5 seconds, they'll go. I'm

96:21

going to say something I've never said.

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When Hule first made their bar many,

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listening to it, there'll be a Steven's

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bundle link and check it out. Back to

96:44

the episode. If I could give you the

96:46

choice to be born in 1976

96:48

as you were

96:49

Yeah.

96:50

or to be born now,

96:53

I would go for 1976.

96:55

I mean, the people of my generation, we

97:00

were privileged to grow up in one of the

97:04

most peaceful and most optimistic eras

97:07

in human history. The end of the Cold

97:09

War, the fall of the Iron Curtain. I

97:13

don't know of any better time.

97:16

Uh but when I look at what is happening

97:19

right now, I don't envy the people who

97:22

grow up in the 2020s.

97:25

What is the closing

97:29

statement of hope and solution

97:34

that kind of ties off this conversation?

97:37

What is the thing that having someone

97:38

gotten to this point in the conversation

97:40

they should be thinking about doing

97:43

which will cause the domino effect that

97:44

will lead us to maybe more hopeful

97:47

future.

97:49

But we still have agency. I mean the

97:51

algorithms are not yet in in full

97:54

control. They are taking power away from

97:57

us. But most power is still in human

97:59

hands and every human being has some

98:02

level of of power of agency which means

98:06

that each one of us has some

98:08

responsibility.

98:09

Now nobody can solve all the world's

98:12

problems.

98:14

So focus on one thing. Find the one

98:17

thing which is close to your heart which

98:20

you have a deep understanding of and uh

98:24

and and and and try to make a difference

98:26

there and the best way to make a

98:30

difference is to cooperate with other

98:32

people. I mean the human superpower is

98:35

our ability to cooperate in large

98:37

numbers. So if you care about a specific

98:40

issue don't try to be an isolated

98:44

activist.

98:45

50 individuals who cooperate as part of

98:48

an organization

98:50

can uh do much much more than 500

98:54

isolated activists, individuals.

98:58

So, and find your one thing and again

99:01

don't try to do everything. Let other

99:03

people do the rest and cooperate with

99:06

other people on on your chosen mission.

99:11

Yal, your book Sapiens changed the world

99:14

in many ways. is it gave us a new

99:15

perspective and a new understanding of

99:16

who we are as as humans, where we've

99:19

come from. And with that, we have a road

99:21

map for where we're going. It's

99:22

celebrating its 10th anniversary. I have

99:25

the 10th anniversary edition here, which

99:26

I'm going to beg you to sign for me

99:28

after. Um, and it really is a once in a

99:32

generation book. The numbers that I have

99:34

are that it sold more than 25 million

99:37

copies and that's in a market where

99:39

people said no one's buying books

99:40

anymore. That's crazy. That's absolutely

99:44

that's absolutely crazy. You you're

99:46

working on a new book which I'm very

99:47

excited to hear about. I'm sure that a

99:49

little birdie told me that'll be

99:50

announced next year and I'm sure

99:51

everyone's incredibly energized about

99:53

that.

99:54

Um what is the I ask this people the

99:56

question sometimes just as a way to to

99:58

close off the show but I wanted to ask

99:59

you it because it's especially pertinent

100:01

to someone that's got such a huge

100:03

varying wealth of work. Is there one

100:05

particular topic that is pertinent to

100:09

our future

100:11

that we didn't talk about?

100:13

I I would say that when we talk about

100:15

the future,

100:18

um,

100:20

history is is more relevant than ever

100:23

before.

100:24

History is not really the study of the

100:28

past. History is the study of change, of

100:32

how things change.

100:34

you nobody cares about the past for the

100:37

sake of the past. All the people who

100:39

lived in the middle ages or in the uh uh

100:43

ancient uh uh Rome, they all they are

100:45

all dead. They we can't do anything

100:49

about their disasters and their misery.

100:53

We can't correct any of the wrongs that

100:56

happened in ancient times. Um and they

101:01

don't care what we say about them.

101:04

You can say anything you want about the

101:06

Romans, the Vikings, they they are gone.

101:08

They don't care.

101:09

The reason to study the past is because

101:13

if you understand the dynamics of change

101:17

in previous centuries, in previous eras,

101:20

this gives you perspective

101:23

uh on the process of of change in in the

101:26

present moment. And I think the curse of

101:29

history

101:31

is that people have this fantasy of

101:34

changing the past of bringing justice to

101:37

the past and this is just impossible.

101:40

You cannot go back there and and save

101:42

the people there. The big question is

101:46

how do you um save the people now? How

101:50

do you prevent

101:53

catastrophes

101:54

perhaps from from happening?

101:58

And this is the reason to to study

102:01

history.

102:02

And the main message of of history is

102:05

that humans created the world in which

102:09

we live.

102:11

The world that we know with nation

102:15

states and corporations and capitalist

102:17

economics and uh uh religions like

102:21

Christianity and Hinduism, humans

102:23

created this world and humans can also

102:26

change it. If there is something about

102:30

the world that you think is unfair, is

102:35

dangerous, is is problematic, then I

102:38

some things are beyond our control. The

102:40

laws of physics are beyond our control.

102:43

So far, the laws of biology are also

102:46

beyond our control. But knowing

102:52

what is natural, what is the outcome of

102:56

physics and biology versus what is the

103:00

outcome of human inventions, human

103:04

stories, human institutions. This is

103:06

very difficult. A lot of things that

103:10

people think are just natural. This is

103:13

the way the world is. This is biology.

103:15

This is physics. They are not. They are

103:17

actually the result of historical

103:19

processes.

103:21

And this is why it's so important to

103:23

understand history to understand how

103:26

things change and to understand what can

103:29

be changed.

103:32

We have a closing tradition on this

103:33

podcast where the last guest leaves a

103:34

question for the next guest, not knowing

103:36

who they're going to be leaving it for.

103:37

Oh,

103:38

the question that's been left for you,

103:39

if you could impose a global law, but

103:43

only one global law, what would it be

103:45

and why?

103:47

Oh, great question for you. I

103:49

I would say that people

103:53

should

103:55

consume less information

103:58

and spend more time reflecting and

104:01

digesting what they already know, what

104:03

they already heard.

104:05

Thank you, Eva. It means um a huge

104:07

amount to me that someone of your esteem

104:09

and someone that whose books have

104:11

inspired me and turned the lights on in

104:13

so many areas of my life um would have

104:15

this conversation with me today. So I

104:16

thank you so much for that. But also for

104:18

turning the lights on to the hundreds of

104:20

millions of people that have consumed

104:22

your work all around the world, the

104:23

videos, the books, etc., etc. as you've

104:25

said there, it's the most important work

104:27

because it helps us looking back at

104:29

history in a way that is accessible um

104:31

and inclusive in a way that even I could

104:34

read without having to be a historian or

104:36

understand very complex subject matter.

104:38

So, thank you so so so much.

104:41

Thank you. It's been great to to be

104:42

here.

104:46

If you listen to this podcast

104:47

frequently, there's something I talk

104:48

about very often and that is the subject

104:51

of sleep. And so I dug down a pretty

104:54

deep sleep rabbit hole to figure out how

104:56

I could sleep better. One of the things

104:57

that I found is a brand called Eight

104:59

Sleep that sponsored this podcast. And

105:01

that is the cover that I have on my bed.

105:03

I saw the variance in my performance, my

105:05

ability to talk, my mood, and everything

105:08

that matters to me when I'm unslept. It

105:10

regulates the temperature of both sides

105:13

of my bed individually. So my partner

105:15

can have cold, I can have a little bit

105:17

warmer, and it learns about my body and

105:19

sets my bed to the temperature that I

105:22

need to have optimal sleep. The brands

105:25

that I talk about on this this show, the

105:27

podcast sponsors that I have are brands

105:29

that I love and use, and EightLe is one

105:31

of them. They've made that piece of foam

105:33

that we all sleep on for 8 hours a day

105:36

smart. I've put a link in the

105:38

description below, but you can go to

105:40

eightsleep.com/stephven

105:42

for exclusive holiday savings.

105:46

Do you need a podcast to listen to next?

105:48

We've discovered that people who liked

105:50

this episode also tend to absolutely

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love another recent episode we've done.

105:55

So, I've linked that episode in the

105:57

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it.

106:02

[Music]

Interactive Summary

The video features a conversation with historian and author Yuval Noah Harari. They discuss critical challenges facing humanity, including the rise of artificial intelligence, the danger of losing touch with reality due to human-made fictions, the risk of humanity transforming into non-organic entities, and the fragility of global order. Harari warns that modern societies are increasingly being manipulated by algorithms and that our ability to cooperate through stories is becoming a vulnerability. He emphasizes the importance of mental hygiene, balancing our information diet, and understanding history as a tool to navigate the future rather than a fixed narrative.

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