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>> As the war in Iran drags on and draws in

more countries, it's had unlikely

benefits [music] for one of Iran's key

allies, Russia.

>> The US has cleared the way for India to

temporarily increase its purchases of

Russian oil. With the straight of Hormuz

effectively closed, [music] choking off

global oil supplies, the Trump

administration has taken the remarkable

step of temporarily loosening sanctions

on Russia. [music]

>> It started with a limited waiver for

India to purchase this oil that was

already in transit and for a limited

time for only 1 month. You know, we've

seen [music] the Trump administration

widen that waiver and the European

allies have come out and condemned that.

>> Natalyia Drosiaak covers US defense and

intelligence for Bloomberg. She says

that the US's [music] decision to roll

back some sanctions on Russia hasn't

done much to move the price of oil,

[music] which is still hovering above

$100 a barrel, but it has been a

symbolic win for [music] Russia as it

continues to wage war in Ukraine and

forges a closer relationship to Iran. I

think the question is also if this drags

on longer or if the US decides to

[music] issue more waiverss, there is a

prospect of more benefits coming its

way. And whereas we don't really see the

prospect of more pressure coming its

[music] way at the moment.

>> Since President Donald Trump returned to

office, he's taken meetings with Russian

President Vladimir Putin [music] and

scaled back US support for Ukraine. He's

also alienated NATO, the military

alliance that's [music] been providing

key support for Ukraine's war efforts.

And after Trump started a war with Iran

in February, the relationship with NATO

has been under new strains. This

weekend, Trump told the Financial Times

in a phone call that he expected NATO to

assist the US [music] in keeping the

Strait of Hormuz open. Trump told the

paper, quote, "If there's no response or

if it's a negative response, I think it

[music] will be very bad for the future

of NATO.

I'm Sarah Holder and this is the Big

Take from Bloomberg News. [music] Today

on the show, what Russia stands to gain

and lose from the war in Iran. [music]

how rising oil prices and conflict in

the Middle East could impact Russia's

war in Ukraine, its economy, and the

US's global alliances.

So, Natalya, as the US and Israel's war

with Iran widens and continues, [music]

I wanted to talk to you about where

Russia fits in. Russia and Iran have

been allies [music] for a long time. Can

you give us a quick overview of that

relationship? Yeah. So, you know, Russia

and Iran's relationship really deepened,

I would say, over the last few years

since the start of Russia's full-scale

invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

And so, they reached out to Iran and

that resulted in Iran transferring these

Shahed drones as well as ballistic

missiles. Later on, they also provided

Russia with knowhow to produce those

drones and build them up themselves.

There has been intelligence sharing

already happening with the Russians

sharing sensitive military information

and knowhow, but critically also lessons

learned about how those Iranian drones

work on the battlefield and you know how

they've been countered. And last year

they even signed a partnership to kind

of cement that relationship. Given that

deepening relationship, what does Russia

have to gain or lose in this war?

>> Well, in some sense, you know, they

don't want the US and its allies to to

succeed and success uh from that

perspective would look look like Iran

becoming more moderate or weak. So, in

in that respect, Putin would want to

keep hardliners

in Thran to maintain that support,

maintain that relationship.

But, you know, they also have I mean,

they're benefiting from the war going on

and and dragging on as we've been seeing

with the price of oil. This is critical

to Russia's economy.

>> What has Putin said about the level of

coordination between Moscow and Thran?

Has he confirmed that, you know, Russia

has been providing [music] this

intelligence? According to Steve

Wickoff, Trump's envoy, the Russians

denied that. And you know, some of the

folks around Trump are ready to believe

that denial.

Although, you know, we did hear Trump

say that it seems like the Russians were

helping the Iranians [music]

at least a little bit.

>> Do we know if Iran has been acting on

that intelligence?

>> Well, we can only assume. I don't think

we have specific information tying like

Iranian strikes to Russian intelligence

for example, but we can only assume that

it's at least been somewhat helpful. You

know, in terms of other information, we

know that that's also included like

targeting and satellite imagery to help

them pinpoint where US forces are in the

region. One of the key questions going

forward will be, you know, how regular

and timely that information is

transferred to Iran. You know, whether

it was just a oneoff or if it's kind of

a systematic transfer of information.

That makes a big difference. Of course,

you know, Trump and and other

administration officials say it hasn't.

>> Beyond, you know, intelligence sharing,

what tactics do you see Iran taking from

Russia's playbook? Well, one of the the

key tactics that we're seeing over the

last few days, which you know, they

either received as direct advice from

the Russians or as passive advice just

watching uh Russian tactics in Ukraine

was to target allied oil infrastructure

as a way to inflict pain on their enemy.

>> How is the US thinking about this

[music] dynamic and and Russia's role

here? In some senses, they've been more

willing to look past the Russian support

to Iran, you know, with [music] comments

like

saying that, you know, whatever support

they have been giving has been very

limited and and not very impactful. So,

there seems to be some sort of degree

of, you know, willingness to let it

slide. And then in addition to that,

we're seeing the US roll back some of

the the sanctions on Russian oil or at

least issue these temporary waiverss.

So, you know, the the priority with the

Trump administration right now is

clearly not to maintain or or even

increase pressure on Russia. It's fully

focused on Iran, but those two are

linked.

We'll dig [music] into what the easing

of those sanctions mean for the global

oil market, for Russia, and for Ukraine

and its allies after [music] the break.

Since Russia [music] launched its

full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022,

the US has imposed strict sanctions

[music] on buying Russian oil. But on

March 5th, the US issued a temporary

authorization letting [music] India buy

more Russian oil already out at sea on

tankers. And last week, the US widened

that waiver to create a one-mon window

for countries to buy more Russian oil

that's already in transit. I asked

Bloomberg's [music]

Natalyia Drosiaak what we know about how

the Trump administration came to that

decision. So, the Trump administration

has come under a [music] lot of pressure

in recent days because of the spiking

price of oil. And that comes at a time

when they've promised the American

people that they are laser focused on

affordability and reducing the price of

gas and other goods, groceries. Or

that's what's led them at least to to

look at these waiverss on Russian oil.

And how much of an effect could this

move actually have on oil prices around

the world?

>> Well, we seen that the waiver that they

issued for India had only a relatively

limited impact because this really is

dealing with a small fraction of the

global oil market and the key issue is

really about access through the straight

of horm. And that's that's what's

driving the price of oil. So even as the

administration has widened some of those

waiverss, it's unlikely to have a major

impact on the price of oil. But I mean

that measure, you know, temporarily

lifting sanctions on Russia, even in a

limited way, is a pretty bold move. The

president of the European Union, Ursula

Vanderion, has said that this is not the

moment for the US to be easing sanctions

on Russian oil. So I'm wondering could

this move by the US strain the

relationship with Europe and and how

does that play for Russia?

>> Yeah, I mean I think the relationship

has already been strained for for quite

some months. I mean especially on other

issues, trade, but also on threats over

Greenland. And so this certainly isn't

helping. And then this example of them

trying to convince Trump not to roll

back these sanctions or at least weaken

them and then you know them going ahead

with it anyway. I think that's just

really adding to the frustration.

>> Well, how big of a win is this this

rolling back of these sanctions for

Russia?

>> I think it is a big win because you know

just a few months ago there was talk

about whether the Trump administration

could actually impose more. You know,

they've touted these these sanctions as

examples of them not being soft on Putin

and on Russia and the impact that

they've had on the Russian economy. And

now, you know, rolling these back in in

a limited way, even even if just

limited, is just not a great sign. I

think the concern is also what if

there's more like what if this continues

and the Russians are already benefiting

from the spike in the price of oil which

is critical for them because this is uh

the backbone of their economy. This is

how they finance the their war on

Ukraine. So any any relief in addition

to that is only going to benefit them

even if it's relatively limited. As you

mentioned, one of the open questions is

about, you know, how this easing of

sanctions could lead to other moves,

right? The limited lifting of sanctions

is supposed to be temporary. It's set to

last till April 11th. But can this genie

be put back into the bottle? Once these

sanctions are lifted, even in this

limited way, how hard might it be to

reinstate them? I think they could

manage that because like I said this

seems to be targeting oil that was

already in transit. I think if they went

further than them than that it could be

more complicated. The question is also

as this drags on how desperate does the

US government become

and do they go further and then it

becomes even harder to reimpose them?

[music]

I'm curious about some of the other ways

this war might end up benefiting Russia

or or [music] be seen by Russia as

beneficial to to their aims. For

starters, I'm thinking about the way

that this might, you [music] know, draw

attention away from its own war with

Ukraine or draw away [music] US

munitions that could be sent to Ukraine.

>> Yeah, I think this is a key worry for

Ukraine and its European allies. So,

we've seen the Ukrainians

tell the Americans that they'd be

willing to share

information and specialists that know

how to counter those Iranian drones

because they've had all this experience

over the last few years in dealing with

that on the battlefield. And that seems,

you know, to be an effort by the

Ukrainians to curry good favor with the

US. I mean, the one thing I will say

about the Ukrainian drone support is,

you know, this is something that they've

been talking about for months and uh

even before the outbreak of of the war,

the US and and Trump has been really

interested in in that because I think

there's been a recognition that

drones are going to be a critical

element of any any future warfare. And

we've seen that play out in on the

battlefield in Ukraine in terms of how

that quickly shifted into a battle of

drones between Russia and Ukraine. And

we've seen that bear out over the last

few days in Iran. and you know how the

US and and its allies have have been put

on their heels to some degree by the

vast use of these relatively cheap

drones that has forced the US and allies

to counter them with more expensive

interceptors. But you know at the same

time there is a real concern about the

weapon stockpiles because if this drags

on for many months that's going to make

it a lot harder for Ukraine and Europe

to buy those critical American weapons

that they rely on. And you know

especially if the US decides they want

to prioritize

the Middle East and and supporting the

operation there. Does the fact that the

US is leaning on Ukraine in some ways

for that expertise in drone defense

strengthen the relationship between the

US and Ukraine moving forward?

>> I think that's what the Ukrainians are

hoping for, but you know, so far we're

not seeing that translate into stronger

pressure on Russia.

I'm wondering the longer the Iran war

drags on, [music] what could this

conflict mean for the future of the war

between Russia [music] and Ukraine?

>> Well, I think there's a real risk that

the US and and even European allies

become distracted. I think that's

something that Putin probably hopes for

to some degree [music]

as he's been, you know, his his major

tactic has been stalling for time.

And [music]

if you know the more that the US and

Europe are distracted by what's

happening in the [music] Middle East,

the less pressure he faces to to end the

war. So it could mean the longer that

the war drags out in Iran, the longer

the war drags out in Ukraine as well.

This is the Big Take from Bloomberg

[music] News. I'm Sarah Holder. To get

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