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IT'S OVER! I Can't Stay Quiet on GOOGLE vs NVIDIA Any Longer

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IT'S OVER! I Can't Stay Quiet on GOOGLE vs NVIDIA Any Longer

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420 segments

0:00

Something big is happening at Google and

0:02

Amazon. They just launched chips to

0:04

challenge Nvidia's data center

0:06

dominance, which could spell big trouble

0:08

for the world's most valuable company

0:10

and change the course of the entire AI

0:12

revolution. Your time is valuable, so

0:14

let's get right into it. About a week

0:16

ago, news broke that Meta Platforms was

0:18

in talks to spend billions of dollars on

0:20

Google's custom TPU chips. But instead

0:23

of rushing out to make a video, I took

0:25

some time to understand what these chips

0:27

actually do and what this means for the

0:29

AI market. Because in my opinion, the

0:31

single most important question for AI

0:34

investors is how long Nvidia can

0:36

dominate data centers with their GPUs

0:38

and CUDA ecosystem since so much of the

0:41

AI market is built on top of them today.

0:43

And I'm glad I waited because Amazon

0:46

also announced their new tranium 3 chips

0:48

a couple days ago. So, I'll break those

0:50

down for you, too. I'm also not here to

0:52

hold you hostage. So, here's exactly

0:54

what I'll cover in this video. I'll

0:56

explain what Google and Amazon's chips

0:58

actually do, how they compete with

1:00

Nvidia's hardware ecosystem, how these

1:02

chips actually could change the course

1:04

of the entire AI revolution, but not in

1:06

the way most investors think, and of

1:08

course, which AI stocks I'm buying as a

1:10

result. There's a ton to talk about. So,

1:12

let's start with the story that's on

1:13

everybody's mind. About a week ago,

1:15

Google announced that they would sell

1:17

their custom tensor processing units or

1:19

TPUs to other data centers. According to

1:22

Morgan Stanley, Google has a roadmap to

1:24

ship a million TPUs to external

1:27

customers by 2027, which would increase

1:29

their cloud revenue by over 10% or close

1:32

to $13 billion. Google's long-term

1:35

internal goal is to capture around 10%

1:38

of Nvidia's data center revenues over

1:40

time, which works out to tens of

1:42

billions of dollars every year. They

1:44

plan to do that by chipping away at some

1:46

of Nvidia's biggest customers and their

1:48

most widely supported workloads. This is

1:51

a huge change from Google's previous

1:52

chip strategy, and it's actually much

1:54

bigger than just competing with Nvidia.

1:57

Let me show you why. While GPUs are

1:59

generalpurpose accelerators that can run

2:01

almost everything, TPUs or tensor

2:04

processing units are a different kind of

2:06

chip called AS6, applicationspecific

2:09

integrated circuits. Google's TPUs are

2:12

specifically built for tensor operations

2:14

like matrix multiplication and the

2:16

related maths that dominate deep

2:18

learning today. That makes Google's TPUs

2:21

especially good at three kinds of

2:23

workloads. First, they're great at high

2:25

volume inference at massive scales.

2:27

Google serves billions, if not trillions

2:29

of requests across very specific

2:31

services like search and advertising,

2:33

maps and shopping, YouTube and Gemini.

2:36

So, their biggest hardware bottleneck

2:38

isn't flexibility, it's efficiency.

2:40

Google's TPUs can outperform GPUs by

2:43

anywhere from 50 to 100% per dollar or

2:47

per watt, but only for this specific set

2:49

of applications. Their performance also

2:52

scales extremely well when thousands of

2:54

TPUs are connected together for parallel

2:56

computing thanks to each chip having

2:58

integrated networking, fast

3:00

interconnects, and being tightly coupled

3:02

with memory. That also makes them great

3:03

at large training jobs for those same AI

3:06

models. And the third kind of workload

3:08

that Google's TPUs are great at are

3:10

specialized recommendation and ranking

3:12

systems. Since so many of their services

3:14

involve ranking websites, videos,

3:17

products, businesses, and advertisements

3:19

based on searches, demographics,

3:21

browsing, and purchase history, and so

3:23

on. Google's TPUs have custom hardware

3:26

to accelerate data requests from huge

3:28

lookup tables and do the highly

3:29

specialized math involved in ranking the

3:32

results. There are a few key reasons

3:34

that Meta Platforms would want to buy

3:35

these TPUs. First, both companies have

3:38

very similar workloads. Google has

3:40

YouTube, Meta has Instagram, Google has

3:43

Gemini, Meta has Llama, and so on. And

3:46

it's cheaper to buy Google's TPU based

3:48

AI factories than to build their own

3:50

full stack solutions from scratch. Not

3:52

just the chips, but the racks, the

3:54

liquid cooling, optical interconnects,

3:56

workload schedulers, and software that

3:58

all need to be designed together. Also,

4:00

Meta's training and inference

4:02

accelerators, also known as the MTIA

4:04

chips, only support a limited amount of

4:06

workloads, mainly focused on inference.

4:09

While Google already has pods of 10,000

4:12

TPUs training frontier scale models for

4:14

search, for video, and for large

4:16

language models, making them a great way

4:18

for Meta to catch up on the AI hardware

4:20

race and diversify their hardware

4:22

portfolio beyond Nvidia's GPUs. But

4:25

there are a few important points that

4:26

investors should understand about this

4:28

potential deal. Meta is spending around

4:31

$70 billion on AI infrastructure this

4:34

year alone and their capex budget for

4:36

2026 is projected to be close to a

4:38

hundred billion. That's a massive amount

4:41

of internal demand that their MTIA chips

4:44

can't possibly fill. But other

4:46

hyperscalers don't have this same

4:47

problem. While Amazon and Microsoft also

4:50

have massive capex budgets, their custom

4:52

AI chips and internal hardware systems

4:54

are much more mature than Metas. So,

4:56

they're much less likely to buy Google's

4:58

TPUs instead of just investing in their

5:01

own already proven technologies. In

5:03

fact, Amazon Web Services just launched

5:05

their new Tranium 3 chip. Another ASIC

5:08

that's focused on extreme power

5:09

efficiency and cost savings for a few

5:12

specific AI workloads that they run at

5:14

extremely high volumes like training and

5:16

inference for large language models with

5:18

huge parameter accounts and context

5:20

windows as well as the multimodal and

5:22

mixture of experts models behind

5:24

powerful AI agents like Claude. This

5:26

chip has 50% more memory capacity, 70%

5:29

more bandwidth, twice the compute

5:31

performance, and is 40% more energy

5:34

efficient than Amazon's previous

5:36

generation. So, at first glance, 2026

5:38

could be a very tough year for Nvidia.

5:41

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with my link below today. All right. So,

6:44

both Google and Amazon have high

6:45

performing custom chips that go after

6:47

the same part of the AI market. Training

6:50

and inference for huge high throughput

6:52

AI models and recommener systems that

6:54

need to handle billions of consumer

6:56

requests. And now that we understand

6:58

what these chips do, let's talk about

6:59

how they actually compete with Nvidia's

7:01

hardware ecosystem. The truth is they

7:03

mostly don't. Outside of those very

7:06

specific workloads, Nvidia's GPUs power

7:08

many kinds of AI across a wide variety

7:11

of industries. Not just token generation

7:13

for large language models, but image and

7:15

video generation, physics modeling and

7:17

simulation, professional visualization

7:19

and product design, protein folding and

7:21

drug discovery, robotic motion and

7:23

self-driving cars. The list goes on and

7:25

on. And if you've been watching this

7:27

channel for a while, you know that

7:28

Nvidia's hardware ecosystem is much

7:31

bigger than just GPUs. In fact, it

7:33

includes something called NVLink Fusion.

7:35

NVLink Fusion is a special chiplet that

7:38

can be added to other CPUs or other

7:40

accelerators so they can be installed in

7:42

Blackwell's compute trays or so that

7:44

Blackwell's GPUs and networking

7:46

solutions can be used in data centers

7:48

that are already invested in other chips

7:50

like ARMbased CPUs or more application

7:53

specific accelerators. So, while

7:56

Google's TPUs might be more powerful for

7:58

specific workloads, they're also more

8:00

closed, forcing data centers to rely on

8:02

Google's hardware and software stack as

8:04

is. And Google's stack is nowhere near

8:06

as versatile or as widely adopted as

8:09

CUDA. That's why Google's long-term goal

8:11

is to capture only around 10% of

8:13

Nvidia's GPU market with their TPUs,

8:16

like I mentioned earlier. And Amazon's

8:19

total addressable market is even smaller

8:21

since they're keeping their Tranium 3

8:23

chips inhouse, which means companies

8:25

will have to run their workloads on AWS

8:27

if they want to use these chips. On the

8:30

flip side, Nvidia has millions of GPUs

8:32

in almost every AI data center on Earth

8:35

from AWS and Google Cloud to Microsoft

8:38

Azure and Meta Platforms' AI

8:40

superclusters. And now that we

8:41

understand how Google's and Amazon's

8:43

chips compete with Nvidia's hardware

8:45

ecosystem, let's talk about what this

8:47

all means for the AI revolution and

8:49

which stocks are worth buying as a

8:51

result. And if you feel I've earned it,

8:53

consider hitting the like button and

8:54

subscribing to the channel. That really

8:56

helps me out and it lets me know to make

8:58

more content like this. Thanks. And with

9:00

that out of the way, let's talk about

9:02

how these chips impact the overall AI

9:05

market. First, the AI market is

9:07

projected to almost 19x in size over the

9:09

next 9 years, which would be a compound

9:11

annual growth rate of over 38% through

9:14

2034. That's almost three times faster

9:17

than the average growth rate of the S&P

9:19

500. So, even if Google does take 10% of

9:22

Nvidia's market share over time, that

9:24

market is growing much faster than

9:26

either of them can fill the demand

9:28

alone. But that growth is also spread

9:30

across very different areas of AI like

9:32

natural language processing, computer

9:35

vision, autonomy, and robotics. Nvidia's

9:37

GPUs are flexible enough to support all

9:40

of these different segments. While

9:41

Google's TPUs and Amazon's Tranium chips

9:44

focus on machine learning and natural

9:46

language processing. So, while Google

9:48

and Amazon might challenge Nvidia's

9:50

pricing power and their margins with AI

9:52

labs and AI data centers focused only on

9:54

language models like OpenAI and

9:56

Anthropic, they can't really compete

9:58

once robots, sensors, physical motion,

10:01

or digital simulation enter the

10:03

equation. And don't forget, the biggest

10:05

AI labs and data centers won't ever go

10:07

allin on one ecosystem anyway since they

10:10

don't want to be dependent on a single

10:12

vendor and their clients want access to

10:14

the best chips at the best prices, which

10:16

change depending on the workload. That's

10:18

why every hyperscaler has their own AI

10:21

chips in the first place. Now, let me

10:23

say the quiet part out loud. The biggest

10:25

loser in this situation is AMD since

10:28

their entire data center strategy is

10:30

being the cheaper, better bang for the

10:32

buck alternative to Nvidia, especially

10:34

for large language model inference,

10:36

which is exactly what Google's and

10:38

Amazon's new chips are designed to do.

10:40

Google's TPUs will compete directly with

10:43

AMD for costoptimized inference

10:45

performance and for some specific

10:46

training workloads in Google Cloud, in

10:49

Meta's data centers, and with Anthropic.

10:51

and Amazon's Tranium 3 chips will lower

10:53

the need for AMD's GPUs inside AWS. So,

10:57

as more companies build more application

10:59

specific chips, they will reduce

11:01

Nvidia's pricing power and margins, but

11:03

they could remove the need for AMD's

11:05

chips altogether. All right, but who are

11:07

the biggest winners in this situation?

11:09

The Taiwan semiconductor manufacturing

11:11

company, ticker symbol TSM, is the only

11:14

company on Earth capable of making

11:16

Nvidia's GPUs, Google's TPUs, and

11:19

Amazon's Tranium chips. They also

11:21

manufacture Microsoft's custom Maya

11:23

accelerators and Meta's training and

11:25

inference chips. So, as their customers

11:28

start designing more specialized chips

11:30

for different kinds of workloads, there

11:31

will be even more demand for TSMC's most

11:34

advanced and most profitable chip

11:36

production nodes. On top of that, more

11:38

specialized chips require more advanced

11:40

packaging techniques to get the

11:41

processors, the memory, and the

11:43

networking components close enough

11:45

together and connected at ultra high

11:47

bandwidths. Not only is TSMC the market

11:49

leader by far when it comes to advanced

11:51

packaging, it's also the main driver for

11:54

their margins. So, long story short, the

11:56

more demand there is for different kinds

11:57

of AI chips, the more TSMC can charge

12:00

for their limited supply, which makes

12:02

TSM a great stock regardless of who wins

12:04

between Nvidia or Google. Amazon or AMD.

12:08

But we can't talk about custom chips

12:10

without talking about Broadcom. Ticker

12:12

symbol AVGO. Broadcom helped design

12:15

multiple generations of Google's TPUs,

12:18

Meta's Training and Inference

12:19

Accelerators, and Bite Dance's custom

12:21

chips that help power Tik Tok. And just

12:23

a few weeks ago, Broadcom announced a

12:25

massive partnership with OpenAI to

12:27

design their XPUs, which are custom

12:30

processors optimized to power Chat GPT,

12:32

GPT5, and OpenAI's future models. But

12:36

regardless of which accelerator wins the

12:37

AI era, those chips need to be connected

12:40

with ultra-igh speeded networks, which

12:41

is another area where Broadcom competes

12:44

directly with Nvidia. In fact, Broadcom

12:46

has a 90% market share in Ethernet

12:49

switching chips for data centers, which

12:51

is just as huge as Nvidia's share of the

12:53

data center GPU market. Around 30% of AI

12:56

workloads run on Ethernet today. And

12:59

that number is actually growing since

13:01

the overwhelming majority of the world's

13:02

data centers already run on Ethernet.

13:05

That's why Nvidia also offers

13:06

Ethernet-based networking products

13:08

instead of forcing data centers to

13:10

switch to Infiniband which they own. So

13:12

by holding both Broadcom and Nvidia

13:14

stock, investors are holding the two

13:16

companies selling networking solutions

13:18

to almost every AI data center and

13:20

supercomputer in the world. But the

13:22

whole reason that Google and Amazon even

13:24

bother designing their own custom chips

13:26

is for power efficiency. That's because

13:28

electricity accounts for around onethird

13:30

of a data cent's ongoing operating

13:33

expenses and cooling accounts for about

13:35

40% of that. That means both power and

13:37

cooling have a huge impact on the profit

13:40

margins for AI. Which is why the third

13:42

stock on my list is Vertive Holdings,

13:44

ticker symbol VRT. Verive Holdings makes

13:47

power and cooling systems for data

13:48

centers. For example, they make liquid

13:50

cooling systems specifically for

13:52

highdensity servers and massive GPU

13:55

clusters used for AI training and

13:57

inference. Verdives liquid cooling

13:58

systems are modular in design and they

14:00

can be scaled up to cool 600 kW worth of

14:04

server racks per unit. That means that

14:06

one of these systems can cool five

14:08

kowatt Blackwell racks without a data

14:11

center needing to overhaul its

14:12

pre-existing infrastructure. As a

14:15

result, Vertive supplies cooling

14:16

solutions to all three cloud

14:18

infrastructure providers, AWS, Google

14:21

Cloud, and Microsoft Azure. Verdive also

14:23

supplies them with core power systems

14:25

like their Liber XL, which is a

14:27

high-capacity, uninterruptible power

14:29

supply designed specifically for hypers

14:31

scale and cloud facilities, and it

14:33

supplies huge amounts of energy at very

14:35

high efficiencies. So hopefully this

14:37

video helped you understand what Google

14:39

and Amazon's custom chips do and their

14:41

overall place in the AI revolution,

14:43

competing with Nvidia on specific kinds

14:45

of workloads, but threatening AMD's

14:47

position as a cost-effective alternative

14:49

in the process. And of course, three

14:51

stocks set to win big regardless of

14:54

which AI chip actually comes out on top,

14:56

making them all a great way to get rich

14:58

without getting lucky. And if you want

15:00

to see even more stocks that I'm buying

15:02

to get rich without getting lucky, check

15:04

out this video next. Either way, thanks

15:06

for watching and until next time, this

15:08

is Tickerol U. My name is Alex,

15:11

reminding you that the best investment

15:12

you can make is in you.

Interactive Summary

This video explores the strategic impact of Google and Amazon developing their own custom AI chips (TPUs and Tranium 3) to challenge Nvidia's data center dominance. While these specialized chips offer better efficiency for specific workloads like training large language models, they are not direct replacements for the versatility of Nvidia's GPUs. The video argues that the rise of custom silicon primarily threatens AMD's market position as a cost-effective alternative to Nvidia, while highlighting TSMC, Broadcom, and Vertiv as key beneficiaries of the growing demand for specialized hardware and infrastructure support.

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