IT'S OVER! I Can't Stay Quiet on GOOGLE vs NVIDIA Any Longer
420 segments
Something big is happening at Google and
Amazon. They just launched chips to
challenge Nvidia's data center
dominance, which could spell big trouble
for the world's most valuable company
and change the course of the entire AI
revolution. Your time is valuable, so
let's get right into it. About a week
ago, news broke that Meta Platforms was
in talks to spend billions of dollars on
Google's custom TPU chips. But instead
of rushing out to make a video, I took
some time to understand what these chips
actually do and what this means for the
AI market. Because in my opinion, the
single most important question for AI
investors is how long Nvidia can
dominate data centers with their GPUs
and CUDA ecosystem since so much of the
AI market is built on top of them today.
And I'm glad I waited because Amazon
also announced their new tranium 3 chips
a couple days ago. So, I'll break those
down for you, too. I'm also not here to
hold you hostage. So, here's exactly
what I'll cover in this video. I'll
explain what Google and Amazon's chips
actually do, how they compete with
Nvidia's hardware ecosystem, how these
chips actually could change the course
of the entire AI revolution, but not in
the way most investors think, and of
course, which AI stocks I'm buying as a
result. There's a ton to talk about. So,
let's start with the story that's on
everybody's mind. About a week ago,
Google announced that they would sell
their custom tensor processing units or
TPUs to other data centers. According to
Morgan Stanley, Google has a roadmap to
ship a million TPUs to external
customers by 2027, which would increase
their cloud revenue by over 10% or close
to $13 billion. Google's long-term
internal goal is to capture around 10%
of Nvidia's data center revenues over
time, which works out to tens of
billions of dollars every year. They
plan to do that by chipping away at some
of Nvidia's biggest customers and their
most widely supported workloads. This is
a huge change from Google's previous
chip strategy, and it's actually much
bigger than just competing with Nvidia.
Let me show you why. While GPUs are
generalpurpose accelerators that can run
almost everything, TPUs or tensor
processing units are a different kind of
chip called AS6, applicationspecific
integrated circuits. Google's TPUs are
specifically built for tensor operations
like matrix multiplication and the
related maths that dominate deep
learning today. That makes Google's TPUs
especially good at three kinds of
workloads. First, they're great at high
volume inference at massive scales.
Google serves billions, if not trillions
of requests across very specific
services like search and advertising,
maps and shopping, YouTube and Gemini.
So, their biggest hardware bottleneck
isn't flexibility, it's efficiency.
Google's TPUs can outperform GPUs by
anywhere from 50 to 100% per dollar or
per watt, but only for this specific set
of applications. Their performance also
scales extremely well when thousands of
TPUs are connected together for parallel
computing thanks to each chip having
integrated networking, fast
interconnects, and being tightly coupled
with memory. That also makes them great
at large training jobs for those same AI
models. And the third kind of workload
that Google's TPUs are great at are
specialized recommendation and ranking
systems. Since so many of their services
involve ranking websites, videos,
products, businesses, and advertisements
based on searches, demographics,
browsing, and purchase history, and so
on. Google's TPUs have custom hardware
to accelerate data requests from huge
lookup tables and do the highly
specialized math involved in ranking the
results. There are a few key reasons
that Meta Platforms would want to buy
these TPUs. First, both companies have
very similar workloads. Google has
YouTube, Meta has Instagram, Google has
Gemini, Meta has Llama, and so on. And
it's cheaper to buy Google's TPU based
AI factories than to build their own
full stack solutions from scratch. Not
just the chips, but the racks, the
liquid cooling, optical interconnects,
workload schedulers, and software that
all need to be designed together. Also,
Meta's training and inference
accelerators, also known as the MTIA
chips, only support a limited amount of
workloads, mainly focused on inference.
While Google already has pods of 10,000
TPUs training frontier scale models for
search, for video, and for large
language models, making them a great way
for Meta to catch up on the AI hardware
race and diversify their hardware
portfolio beyond Nvidia's GPUs. But
there are a few important points that
investors should understand about this
potential deal. Meta is spending around
$70 billion on AI infrastructure this
year alone and their capex budget for
2026 is projected to be close to a
hundred billion. That's a massive amount
of internal demand that their MTIA chips
can't possibly fill. But other
hyperscalers don't have this same
problem. While Amazon and Microsoft also
have massive capex budgets, their custom
AI chips and internal hardware systems
are much more mature than Metas. So,
they're much less likely to buy Google's
TPUs instead of just investing in their
own already proven technologies. In
fact, Amazon Web Services just launched
their new Tranium 3 chip. Another ASIC
that's focused on extreme power
efficiency and cost savings for a few
specific AI workloads that they run at
extremely high volumes like training and
inference for large language models with
huge parameter accounts and context
windows as well as the multimodal and
mixture of experts models behind
powerful AI agents like Claude. This
chip has 50% more memory capacity, 70%
more bandwidth, twice the compute
performance, and is 40% more energy
efficient than Amazon's previous
generation. So, at first glance, 2026
could be a very tough year for Nvidia.
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both Google and Amazon have high
performing custom chips that go after
the same part of the AI market. Training
and inference for huge high throughput
AI models and recommener systems that
need to handle billions of consumer
requests. And now that we understand
what these chips do, let's talk about
how they actually compete with Nvidia's
hardware ecosystem. The truth is they
mostly don't. Outside of those very
specific workloads, Nvidia's GPUs power
many kinds of AI across a wide variety
of industries. Not just token generation
for large language models, but image and
video generation, physics modeling and
simulation, professional visualization
and product design, protein folding and
drug discovery, robotic motion and
self-driving cars. The list goes on and
on. And if you've been watching this
channel for a while, you know that
Nvidia's hardware ecosystem is much
bigger than just GPUs. In fact, it
includes something called NVLink Fusion.
NVLink Fusion is a special chiplet that
can be added to other CPUs or other
accelerators so they can be installed in
Blackwell's compute trays or so that
Blackwell's GPUs and networking
solutions can be used in data centers
that are already invested in other chips
like ARMbased CPUs or more application
specific accelerators. So, while
Google's TPUs might be more powerful for
specific workloads, they're also more
closed, forcing data centers to rely on
Google's hardware and software stack as
is. And Google's stack is nowhere near
as versatile or as widely adopted as
CUDA. That's why Google's long-term goal
is to capture only around 10% of
Nvidia's GPU market with their TPUs,
like I mentioned earlier. And Amazon's
total addressable market is even smaller
since they're keeping their Tranium 3
chips inhouse, which means companies
will have to run their workloads on AWS
if they want to use these chips. On the
flip side, Nvidia has millions of GPUs
in almost every AI data center on Earth
from AWS and Google Cloud to Microsoft
Azure and Meta Platforms' AI
superclusters. And now that we
understand how Google's and Amazon's
chips compete with Nvidia's hardware
ecosystem, let's talk about what this
all means for the AI revolution and
which stocks are worth buying as a
result. And if you feel I've earned it,
consider hitting the like button and
subscribing to the channel. That really
helps me out and it lets me know to make
more content like this. Thanks. And with
that out of the way, let's talk about
how these chips impact the overall AI
market. First, the AI market is
projected to almost 19x in size over the
next 9 years, which would be a compound
annual growth rate of over 38% through
2034. That's almost three times faster
than the average growth rate of the S&P
500. So, even if Google does take 10% of
Nvidia's market share over time, that
market is growing much faster than
either of them can fill the demand
alone. But that growth is also spread
across very different areas of AI like
natural language processing, computer
vision, autonomy, and robotics. Nvidia's
GPUs are flexible enough to support all
of these different segments. While
Google's TPUs and Amazon's Tranium chips
focus on machine learning and natural
language processing. So, while Google
and Amazon might challenge Nvidia's
pricing power and their margins with AI
labs and AI data centers focused only on
language models like OpenAI and
Anthropic, they can't really compete
once robots, sensors, physical motion,
or digital simulation enter the
equation. And don't forget, the biggest
AI labs and data centers won't ever go
allin on one ecosystem anyway since they
don't want to be dependent on a single
vendor and their clients want access to
the best chips at the best prices, which
change depending on the workload. That's
why every hyperscaler has their own AI
chips in the first place. Now, let me
say the quiet part out loud. The biggest
loser in this situation is AMD since
their entire data center strategy is
being the cheaper, better bang for the
buck alternative to Nvidia, especially
for large language model inference,
which is exactly what Google's and
Amazon's new chips are designed to do.
Google's TPUs will compete directly with
AMD for costoptimized inference
performance and for some specific
training workloads in Google Cloud, in
Meta's data centers, and with Anthropic.
and Amazon's Tranium 3 chips will lower
the need for AMD's GPUs inside AWS. So,
as more companies build more application
specific chips, they will reduce
Nvidia's pricing power and margins, but
they could remove the need for AMD's
chips altogether. All right, but who are
the biggest winners in this situation?
The Taiwan semiconductor manufacturing
company, ticker symbol TSM, is the only
company on Earth capable of making
Nvidia's GPUs, Google's TPUs, and
Amazon's Tranium chips. They also
manufacture Microsoft's custom Maya
accelerators and Meta's training and
inference chips. So, as their customers
start designing more specialized chips
for different kinds of workloads, there
will be even more demand for TSMC's most
advanced and most profitable chip
production nodes. On top of that, more
specialized chips require more advanced
packaging techniques to get the
processors, the memory, and the
networking components close enough
together and connected at ultra high
bandwidths. Not only is TSMC the market
leader by far when it comes to advanced
packaging, it's also the main driver for
their margins. So, long story short, the
more demand there is for different kinds
of AI chips, the more TSMC can charge
for their limited supply, which makes
TSM a great stock regardless of who wins
between Nvidia or Google. Amazon or AMD.
But we can't talk about custom chips
without talking about Broadcom. Ticker
symbol AVGO. Broadcom helped design
multiple generations of Google's TPUs,
Meta's Training and Inference
Accelerators, and Bite Dance's custom
chips that help power Tik Tok. And just
a few weeks ago, Broadcom announced a
massive partnership with OpenAI to
design their XPUs, which are custom
processors optimized to power Chat GPT,
GPT5, and OpenAI's future models. But
regardless of which accelerator wins the
AI era, those chips need to be connected
with ultra-igh speeded networks, which
is another area where Broadcom competes
directly with Nvidia. In fact, Broadcom
has a 90% market share in Ethernet
switching chips for data centers, which
is just as huge as Nvidia's share of the
data center GPU market. Around 30% of AI
workloads run on Ethernet today. And
that number is actually growing since
the overwhelming majority of the world's
data centers already run on Ethernet.
That's why Nvidia also offers
Ethernet-based networking products
instead of forcing data centers to
switch to Infiniband which they own. So
by holding both Broadcom and Nvidia
stock, investors are holding the two
companies selling networking solutions
to almost every AI data center and
supercomputer in the world. But the
whole reason that Google and Amazon even
bother designing their own custom chips
is for power efficiency. That's because
electricity accounts for around onethird
of a data cent's ongoing operating
expenses and cooling accounts for about
40% of that. That means both power and
cooling have a huge impact on the profit
margins for AI. Which is why the third
stock on my list is Vertive Holdings,
ticker symbol VRT. Verive Holdings makes
power and cooling systems for data
centers. For example, they make liquid
cooling systems specifically for
highdensity servers and massive GPU
clusters used for AI training and
inference. Verdives liquid cooling
systems are modular in design and they
can be scaled up to cool 600 kW worth of
server racks per unit. That means that
one of these systems can cool five
kowatt Blackwell racks without a data
center needing to overhaul its
pre-existing infrastructure. As a
result, Vertive supplies cooling
solutions to all three cloud
infrastructure providers, AWS, Google
Cloud, and Microsoft Azure. Verdive also
supplies them with core power systems
like their Liber XL, which is a
high-capacity, uninterruptible power
supply designed specifically for hypers
scale and cloud facilities, and it
supplies huge amounts of energy at very
high efficiencies. So hopefully this
video helped you understand what Google
and Amazon's custom chips do and their
overall place in the AI revolution,
competing with Nvidia on specific kinds
of workloads, but threatening AMD's
position as a cost-effective alternative
in the process. And of course, three
stocks set to win big regardless of
which AI chip actually comes out on top,
making them all a great way to get rich
without getting lucky. And if you want
to see even more stocks that I'm buying
to get rich without getting lucky, check
out this video next. Either way, thanks
for watching and until next time, this
is Tickerol U. My name is Alex,
reminding you that the best investment
you can make is in you.
Ask follow-up questions or revisit key timestamps.
This video explores the strategic impact of Google and Amazon developing their own custom AI chips (TPUs and Tranium 3) to challenge Nvidia's data center dominance. While these specialized chips offer better efficiency for specific workloads like training large language models, they are not direct replacements for the versatility of Nvidia's GPUs. The video argues that the rise of custom silicon primarily threatens AMD's market position as a cost-effective alternative to Nvidia, while highlighting TSMC, Broadcom, and Vertiv as key beneficiaries of the growing demand for specialized hardware and infrastructure support.
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