HomeVideos

Invest in This – It’ll Be Worth $1.5 Million by 2030 | World Leading Investing Expert - Cathie Wood

Now Playing

Invest in This – It’ll Be Worth $1.5 Million by 2030 | World Leading Investing Expert - Cathie Wood

Transcript

2491 segments

0:00

I've read through a decade of your

0:01

research to figure out what the best

0:03

investment is, so anyone can get rich in

0:05

the future. And you predicted that this

0:07

will grow by at least 5,000%.

0:10

Yes, and my conviction is so high

0:12

because of what I do on a day-to-day

0:14

basis. Is there a woman on planet Earth

0:16

that manages more money from an

0:18

investing capacity than you? Maybe not.

0:21

I'm overseeing nearly $30 billion.

0:24

Okay, so I might have $500. What should

0:26

I be doing with that? So, this is all

0:28

you need to know. Cathie Wood built a

0:30

multi-billion dollar fund by spotting

0:32

trends before anyone else. And now, with

0:34

over 40 years of market insight, she's

0:36

showing you how and where to invest,

0:39

too. AI is the biggest technological

0:42

disruption in history. And this

0:44

incredible rate of change is making

0:46

people uncomfortable. But if you are on

0:49

the right side of change, investment

0:51

opportunities and job opportunities are

0:53

going to be enormous. But people don't

0:55

know what to do. For example, many

0:57

people think Apple is a very safe

0:59

investment, but it's probably going to

1:01

be disrupted by artificial intelligence.

1:03

But yet, Tesla's going to be the

1:05

biggest.

1:06

You've invested just over 2 billion in

1:08

Tesla. Yeah, because Tesla is the

1:11

largest AI project on Earth. So, AI has

1:15

to be a top priority, not an

1:18

afterthought. Say I've got questions.

1:20

What's your top 10 public stocks that

1:22

anybody can invest in? What's the

1:23

philosophy towards investing that will

1:25

make one rich over time? And then, if I

1:27

want to invest in AI, how should I be

1:29

investing my money? According to our

1:31

research, these investments will go up

1:34

more than tenfold in the next 5 to 10

1:37

years and create incredible

1:39

opportunities for investors. So, number

1:42

one,

1:44

This has always blown my mind a little

1:45

bit. 53% of you that listen to this show

1:48

regularly haven't yet subscribed to this

1:50

show. So, could I ask you for a favor

1:52

before we start? If you like this show

1:53

and you like what we do here and you

1:54

want to support us, the free simple way

1:56

that you can do just that is by hitting

1:58

the subscribe button. And my commitment

2:00

to you is if you do that, then I'll do

2:01

everything in my power, me and my team,

2:03

to make sure that this show is better

2:05

for you every single week. We'll listen

2:06

to your feedback, we'll find the guests

2:08

that you want me to speak to, and we'll

2:10

continue to do what we do. Thank you so

2:12

much.

2:16

Cathie Wood,

2:17

is there a woman on planet Earth that

2:20

manages more money from an investing

2:21

capacity than you?

2:23

Well, there's probably not someone

2:27

overseeing Yes, nearly $30 billion.

2:31

Uh but I know there are teams out there,

2:33

including women, that manage maybe a lot

2:37

more than that. What is it that you do?

2:40

Invest in companies that are going to

2:44

that are technologically enabled and

2:47

that that are going to transform the

2:48

world as we know it.

2:51

Robotics,

2:52

energy storage, artificial intelligence,

2:56

blockchain technology, and multiomic

3:00

sequencing in the life science space.

3:02

The last is the most complicated. And

3:05

how long have you been an investor? I

3:07

started when I was 20 years old at a

3:10

company called Capital Group, and I was

3:13

introduced to the firm by Art Laffer.

3:16

Now, Art Laffer, he's one of the most

3:19

important economists of our time. He

3:20

created something called the Laffer

3:22

Curve. He's advised most presidents

3:25

since President Nixon, and he's advising

3:29

President Trump as well. And how is

3:32

these five big innovation platforms that

3:34

you speak of, how is that going to have

3:37

an impact on

3:39

the average person's life? Like, why do

3:41

they need to know this stuff?

3:43

How is it going to change their

3:44

decision-making and change their career

3:47

and Now that the world is moving so

3:50

quickly into this new world,

3:53

uh and Bitcoin has become so successful

3:57

an investment, many people are trying to

4:00

figure out, okay, how how do I get

4:03

involved with the new world? And when I

4:07

say get on the right side of change, we

4:09

think there's going to be a lot of

4:10

disruption to the traditional world

4:13

order. And when I say that in terms of

4:16

people understanding what I mean,

4:18

I think many people think Apple is a

4:20

very safe investment because huge hoard

4:23

of cash, very successful smartphone, you

4:27

know, number one market share of

4:30

smartphones

4:32

in terms of profitability, by far.

4:36

And yet, we can tell you, and this is

4:39

one of what's called the Mag 6 that led

4:41

the stock market over the last few

4:43

years.

4:44

The top six stocks.

4:45

The top six stocks, the market was very

4:47

narrowly focused on this ilk of stock,

4:50

and we were saying, you know what?

4:53

Apple is probably going to be disrupted

4:56

by artificial intelligence.

4:58

And one of the reasons we started asking

5:01

questions very early is what is the

5:05

ultimate mobile device? Ultimately, it's

5:08

going to be an autonomous vehicle.

5:12

Apple should have been all over that,

5:14

and they were trying, and we saw one

5:16

management turnover after another. This

5:19

is an AI project, and what we were

5:22

learning as they were turning that team

5:25

over

5:26

time and again is

5:29

they they weren't getting AI right. They

5:31

were not positioning correctly. You're

5:33

concerned for Apple?

5:35

I think Apple

5:37

it has so much cash, it has such a loyal

5:40

customer base. Uh it will be fine, but

5:44

maybe

5:45

its revenue growth has slowed to almost

5:48

nothing.

5:49

And so, maybe it'll be a mature cash

5:52

cow. That's not what we do. We invest in

5:56

technologically enabled disruptive

5:58

innovation. AI is the biggest

6:01

technological disruption in history. And

6:05

if they're not going to get it right,

6:07

we're not going to be there. So, if I

6:09

want to invest in AI, if I agree with

6:11

you, Cathie, and I say to you, you know,

6:12

I think I think you're right that AI is

6:14

the biggest technological wave coming

6:16

into shore and the biggest opportunity,

6:19

how how should I be investing my money?

6:22

In in in your view, how are you

6:23

investing your money to capitalize on

6:24

AI? Many people used to invest in AI

6:28

through one stock. That was Nvidia. That

6:31

was the check-the-box, I own the GPU,

6:35

the chip manufacturer, which is the most

6:38

important chip manufacturer in the AI

6:42

age. And its valuation, meaning

6:45

its

6:47

price relative to earnings, um really

6:50

got up to very heady levels. And we were

6:53

saying at the time, well, if Nvidia's

6:56

valuation is correct, there there there

6:59

are going to be a lot of other winners.

7:01

Who are they?

7:03

Uh well, our largest position in the

7:05

flagship strategy, ARKK, is Tesla.

7:10

And as we were trying to help people

7:12

understand why we were swapping away

7:15

from Nvidia to stocks like Tesla and

7:19

Palantir, which is a software provider,

7:22

um we were trying to explain that this

7:26

new world around AI is going to happen

7:29

very quickly.

7:30

And uh Tesla is the largest AI project

7:35

on Earth. Uh I posted that on X, and

7:38

Elon liked it, so it must be true.

7:42

But it is true if our research is

7:44

correct. Uh we believe that um

7:48

the entire ecosystem associated with

7:51

autonomous

7:53

uh taxi networks is going to be worth 8

7:57

to 10 trillion dollars in terms of

8:00

revenue generation in the next 5 to 10

8:03

years. And if you want to put that in

8:05

context, the the entire GDP of the world

8:08

today is about 130 trillion. So, 10

8:12

trillion is going to move the needle.

8:15

Tesla are launching their first cyber

8:18

taxi, I believe, in Austin in June,

8:20

potentially.

8:20

Yes, it So, the cyber cabs will launch

8:23

next year, but in Austin in June, those

8:27

will be Model Ys. And I'm looking to buy

8:31

another Model Y because it will in

8:33

effect be a cyber cab. Okay. And if I

8:36

chose to, I could have my

8:39

Model Y drive me to work and then let it

8:42

out for the day and earn money on it,

8:45

have it pick me up at the end of the

8:47

night. And some people will do that, and

8:49

Tesla will provide the platform for

8:51

that. I think a lot of people don't

8:52

realize just how much of the economy is

8:55

about driving. Yes.

8:57

So, taxis, deliveries, all these kinds

8:59

of things. It's a huge Is it the single

9:01

I think it's the single biggest employer

9:02

in the world. Yes, transportation,

9:05

broadly defined. Yes. And And it's not

9:08

just on the ground, of course.

9:11

As we've studied autonomous taxis

9:15

moving forward, we believe the cost of

9:18

transportation will come down fairly

9:19

dramatically. So,

9:21

in the US today, an Uber costs roughly

9:26

two to four dollars per mile.

9:29

Um at scale, now this may not be for 5

9:32

to 10 years, but this is the direction

9:35

that Tesla certainly is headed. We

9:37

believe that Tesla will be able to offer

9:40

a service for 25 cents per mile.

9:44

And because of that, we think there will

9:47

be much more congestion in the roads.

9:50

When you cut the price of something, you

9:51

get more of it. And that led us into the

9:55

air. And so, we've been studying

9:58

studying EVTOLs. Um What's an EVTOL?

10:00

EVTOL is an electric vehicle takeoff and

10:03

landing.

10:05

Like a drone type of

10:06

but for for people. Yeah. So we own

10:09

Archer in our portfolio. And of course

10:12

AI is a part of this new world as well.

10:15

Um and it's a part of the defense world

10:18

as well as we are trying to save our

10:22

soldiers and um

10:25

and move out there with autonomous

10:27

drones. So autonomous

10:29

uh mobility on the ground, in the skies,

10:32

ultimately on the water.

10:35

So so Tesla. So that's one big We we

10:38

think that's going to be the biggest in

10:41

the short term in terms of revenue

10:43

generation, the biggest application of

10:45

AI. We think the most profound

10:49

application of AI is going to be in

10:51

healthcare.

10:52

Because of AI, and this is already

10:55

beginning to happen.

10:57

Uh

10:57

we are able to diagnose

11:00

cancer with a blood test in stage one.

11:06

Think about that. If you discover cancer

11:08

in stage one, you can save most people.

11:12

Crazy. Right? And maybe even before

11:15

stage one. Why? This is the convergence

11:18

of sequencing technologies. So DNA, RNA,

11:23

protein sequencing

11:26

uh technologies,

11:28

and then the third uh technology that is

11:32

breakthrough and already making a

11:34

difference is CRISPR gene editing. The

11:38

convergence of those three technologies

11:41

is beginning to cure disease. So uh a

11:45

company called CRISPR Therapeutics,

11:48

which is one of the largest in our ARKG

11:51

fund and in the top 10 in our ARKK fund,

11:56

uh has developed a therapy

11:59

uh to cure sickle cell disease with and

12:03

beta thalassemia. Both of those are

12:05

blood-related diseases

12:08

with one treatment.

12:10

Think about that. Now, the

12:11

preconditioning for that is gruesome.

12:13

It's It's It involves It's almost like

12:16

chemotherapy, uh which is going to

12:18

change. Uh but nonetheless, there's huge

12:20

demand for it because, you know, these

12:22

people go to the emergency room 10 to 20

12:27

times per year for blood transfusions to

12:30

save their lives.

12:32

Of course they're going to go through a

12:34

tough regimen. They want to live a more

12:36

normal life. Uh so it's already

12:38

generating revenue. Both Both of those

12:40

are already generating revenue for

12:43

CRISPR Therapeutics and a company called

12:45

Vertex. So this this

12:47

Well, there's three or four different

12:48

companies you've mentioned here. Tesla,

12:49

the other one was Archer.

12:51

Archer is the EVTOL company, yes. So

12:53

it's your flying cars, basically.

12:55

They're your drone cars. Yes. And CRISPR

12:57

and Tesla. So if I start with Tesla, you

12:59

were bullish on Tesla. You were making

13:02

big predictions about Tesla before

13:03

pretty much anyone else out there. I

13:05

think in 2015. Mhm. And at the time in

13:08

2015, you said that you believed the

13:10

stock would get above 4,000, roughly.

13:13

Right, on the old stock.

13:14

Yeah, on the before the stock split. And

13:16

you were right by some significant

13:17

margin. Um

13:19

I think you predicted it would be 4,000

13:20

before the stock stock splits. And I

13:22

think at its peak, that equates to about

13:26

18,000, maybe 12,000 at its peak. Yes,

13:30

well

13:30

region. We We We were right about two

13:35

early years

13:37

or Tesla got to where we believed it

13:40

would go two years before most expected.

13:44

You know, in 2018 and 19, many people,

13:48

as Elon was dis discussing

13:51

and describing production hell for the

13:53

Model 3,

13:55

um many people thought the company would

13:57

go bankrupt.

13:58

And uh and yet we knew

14:02

that if Elon Musk

14:04

could create a reusable rocket that

14:08

could land on a barge

14:11

in the water, he would be able to figure

14:14

out how to produce at scale the Model 3.

14:18

That was to us a simple um conclusion.

14:22

Now, as in hindsight, as we're learning

14:25

from Tesla, production hell, and they

14:29

themselves were worried. That's why Elon

14:31

slept on the floor in the production

14:33

factory and just became maniacally

14:35

involved, which is how he works uh as uh

14:39

So yes, and now our prediction, the

14:41

stock is I'm not going to be exactly

14:44

right on this, 270 280 uh dollars. Uh

14:48

our prediction in five years is 2,600.

14:52

And 90% of that valuation comes not from

14:57

the electric vehicle, but from this

15:00

robotaxi platform. Uh because the

15:04

electric car, if you think about it, is,

15:08

you know, a one-shot sale. You know,

15:10

sell and hope they come back when

15:11

they're replacing their car. This

15:13

essentially means that we'll be driving

15:15

cars that we can

15:18

click a button and then then it becomes

15:20

an autonomous taxi. So I go on holiday,

15:22

I have my my Tesla car at my house. When

15:24

I go on holiday, the car turns into a

15:26

taxi and starts chauffeuring people

15:27

around. It makes me money. But also,

15:29

from the consumer's perspective that are

15:30

trying to hail a taxi, at any point I

15:33

can go on my Tesla app, press a button,

15:35

a autonomous car comes to me with no one

15:38

driving it, and it takes me to my

15:40

destination with no driver at all.

15:42

Um and then the recurring revenue model,

15:44

I believe, is you subs you subscribe.

15:47

probably could It It could be a You

15:50

could subscribe to the network or they

15:52

could uh

15:53

you know, maybe it could be either or,

15:56

subscription or ala carte if you don't

15:58

think you're going to use it that much.

16:00

So

16:02

now, when I'm here in the UK and Europe,

16:05

many people do not believe what what you

16:08

just said. And and they don't because

16:11

your regulators have not allowed FSD

16:15

here. I think they might I I

16:18

Somewhere in Europe, I think they're

16:20

beginning to consider it.

16:22

Maybe even in the UK here, they have are

16:24

considering it.

16:26

Um in St. Petersburg, Florida, where

16:28

we're based, um

16:30

I can go from my house to anywhere,

16:34

and

16:36

flawlessly the car will take me there.

16:38

Now, we still have to sit in the

16:40

driver's seat for now, but in June uh or

16:45

soon thereafter, when they turn the

16:48

system on, if regulators permit. Right

16:51

now, we're state by state. I think

16:53

that's going to change so that we'll

16:55

have federal regulations so that this

16:57

can happen a lot faster. One other thing

17:00

about Tesla, though, in that 2,600

17:03

uh dollar number,

17:04

we do not include much for humanoid

17:07

robots.

17:08

Now,

17:10

I

17:11

This And and this is happening faster

17:13

than we thought.

17:14

Um

17:15

she And the reason it's happening faster

17:17

is humanoid robots,

17:20

they are the convergence of the same

17:23

three technologies or innovation

17:25

platforms as robotaxis.

17:28

Robo robots, robotics. So actuators and

17:33

so forth, getting them to work.

17:35

Energy storage, battery operated. And

17:37

AI. Mhm. So Tesla's way ahead of the

17:41

game on humanoid robots. And yet we have

17:43

very little. Now, Elon thinks that the

17:47

humanoid robot business is going to

17:50

dwarf the robotaxi business. And we

17:53

think he's right, uh but longer term. So

17:57

as I mentioned, we expect all in, around

18:00

the world, including China, not just

18:02

Tesla, but the entire ecosystem, an 8 to

18:05

10 trillion dollar market uh in the next

18:09

five to 10 years for humanoid robots.

18:13

Uh we expect a 26 trillion dollar

18:16

revenue market. Now, that's going to be

18:19

a little further along. Uh robotaxis

18:22

will happen faster, but it may not be as

18:26

distant as we were once thinking.

18:30

For anyone that doesn't know, humanoid

18:31

robots are basically robots that we'll

18:33

have in our home and at work. Mhm. So

18:36

these are There was a video that I think

18:37

um Elon retweeted the other day showing

18:39

one of the human humanoid robots

18:40

dancing.

18:41

Dancing, yes.

18:42

Was that real? I was like looking at

18:43

that video thinking, surely that's not

18:44

real. But he confirmed, I believe, that

18:46

it was real.

18:47

Yes. Yes. Now, when we went to the

18:50

cybercab event,

18:52

uh there were some humanoid robots

18:54

dancing there, but they were tethered

18:56

and they were remotely controlled.

18:58

Yeah. Uh now, cybercab, I think, was

19:01

About a year ago.

19:02

Yes, maybe. So since then,

19:05

they've been able to untether them, and

19:08

uh I do believe that those that dancing

19:10

robot was was um

19:13

not tethered and not remotely

19:15

controlled. It was quite shocking to see

19:17

a robot doing that, because if a robot

19:20

can have that dexterity and mobility,

19:24

and then you overlay that with the AI

19:26

technologies that are accelerating

19:27

rapidly, it begs the question.

19:30

And the question is quite clear, which

19:31

is what about humans? Yes.

19:34

Um and just to put a finer,

19:37

you know, note on this, um

19:40

Elon will not be satisfied until these

19:43

robots can thread a needle.

19:46

So that's where we're going. What does

19:48

that mean for humans? So, you know, the

19:51

history of technology

19:54

is that it has been a net job creator

19:58

throughout history.

19:59

But, humanoid robots are getting awfully

20:02

close to what we do, right? So, it's a

20:05

good question. I I think creativity is a

20:08

big part of that, ingenuity and

20:09

creativity. And, you know, I think

20:12

there's going to be a

20:13

they're going to be a

20:14

lot of new inventions uh in the future.

20:18

So, let's see what those are. But, even

20:20

today, there's something called vibe

20:22

coding. Have you heard of it?

20:24

Okay.

20:25

Because we've moved into the world of

20:28

natural language programming. What is

20:32

vibe coding for someone that doesn't

20:33

know? It's

20:34

Vibe coding means you know a natural

20:37

language. I know We all know a natural

20:40

language. Ours is English for the most

20:42

part, but it could be any language. Um

20:45

we're going to be able to go to chat GPT

20:50

or to especially now, they just

20:52

launched, I think, last week something

20:53

called Codex, Replit, uh and Anthropic's

20:58

fantastic for for um

21:01

programming. And, we'll say, "This is

21:03

what I'm attempting to do." in English

21:05

language. And I And I've seen demos of

21:07

this just internally. We We're going to

21:10

replace some of our software that we're

21:12

buying from outsiders and customize it

21:15

for us because, you know, we don't have

21:17

to buy off the shelf anymore. One size

21:20

fits all. I think there's going to be a

21:22

lot more customization and

21:25

personalization

21:26

and creativity explosion here. You know,

21:29

it's interesting that this is happening

21:31

when the demographic profile of the

21:33

developed world is as it is. Uh we have

21:37

a very low unemployment rate in the US.

21:40

I know the unemployment rates in Europe

21:41

and the UK have been dropping

21:44

to much lower levels than where where

21:46

they were stuck for years. I remember

21:48

thinking, "Wow, double digits."

21:50

Uh

21:51

we have a demographic issue. I mean, if

21:53

you if you watch what uh

21:56

Elon Musk worries about the most, he he

21:59

worries about the population implosion

22:03

uh because

22:04

Collapse? Uh collapse. Collapse in

22:06

population in the developed world um

22:09

because we're not uh

22:11

uh

22:12

we're not producing children above the

22:14

fertility rate. We're We are setting up

22:17

for a shrinkage with China's going

22:20

there, Japan is going there.

22:22

And so, we're going to need productivity

22:26

uh

22:27

productivity to help us if we can't find

22:30

human beings.

22:32

Uh okay. So, you're So, you're saying

22:34

that the ro- robotics and AI could

22:36

actually fill the gap that we lose in

22:38

terms of productivity because our

22:39

society's going to be like an inverted

22:41

pyramid. It's going to be more um

22:43

elderly people and less young people.

22:44

Yes. Yes.

22:46

are going to

22:47

Yes, absolutely. It's Productivity is

22:50

going to be essential. So, as we're

22:52

looking at real growth ahead and mhm

22:56

when you think about real growth

22:59

uh you should be thinking, "Okay,

23:00

somebody's benefiting from this." Um and

23:04

I'm going to set what I I'm going to set

23:06

up the number here uh by describing what

23:09

has happened historically. If you look

23:12

from 1500

23:14

to 1900

23:16

and you try and figure out what real GDP

23:20

growth was back then, real economic

23:22

growth

23:23

um as best as uh Brett Winton, our chief

23:27

futurist, in consultation with academics

23:30

can determine.

23:32

It was roughly 0.6%

23:36

per year.

23:37

And then we had the Industrial

23:40

Revolution.

23:41

Uh we had

23:43

the internal combustion engine,

23:44

telephone, electricity.

23:47

And for the past 125

23:49

years, real GDP growth has been 3%.

23:55

And and most li- living standards have

23:59

gone up over time. Some more than

24:01

others. I know that's a debate, but most

24:04

have gone up.

24:06

If we as we look forward

24:09

based on the five innovation platforms

24:12

around which we have centered our

24:13

research and investing

24:15

if we're right, real GDP growth in the

24:18

next five years could accelerate to

24:20

7.3%.

24:23

And that gives you a sense of uh

24:27

the economic uh

24:29

activity, wealth generation out there.

24:32

And

24:33

what when we are presenting to

24:37

investors, we are actually presenting to

24:39

them not only because they're investors

24:43

but because they have children or

24:46

grandchildren who need to adapt to this

24:48

new world. And our mantra in giving away

24:51

our research, which we do

24:53

is get on the right side of change. We

24:56

also do podcasts.

24:58

Um we we try We do a lot of outreach

25:02

because we think this is a very

25:04

important moment in time.

25:06

Uh seize the moment, grab hold of these

25:09

new technologies

25:11

because that growth rate is more than

25:14

twice where we've been. And if you are

25:16

on the right side of change we think the

25:19

opportunities are going to be enormous.

25:21

Uh investment opportunities and job

25:23

opportunities. Yeah, I feel like I've I

25:26

feel like I'm

25:29

I feel like I can't figure out what

25:33

how the displacement rate

25:35

meets the creation rate.

25:38

So, the destruction rate of of current

25:40

jobs will meet the creation rate of new

25:42

jobs because many of these new jobs I I

25:45

guess there's some of them we can't

25:46

predict yet. I I understand that. But,

25:48

even the ones that we can't predict yet

25:50

would need to be inherently

25:53

human, i.e. need the skills of a human

25:57

for them to be occupied by by humans.

26:00

Um so, what category of stuff is that?

26:02

Like, my my girlfriend's a breathwork

26:04

practitioner. She's upstairs now with 10

26:06

women and she's teaching them

26:07

breathwork.

26:07

Okay. So, she's fine. Yeah? Like, cuz

26:10

they're doing that in person, what

26:11

whatever. She's fine.

26:12

Well, and

26:13

maybe she's not if people decide

26:15

it on chat GPT. Yeah, on chat GPT. But,

26:18

but if they want to be with a group of

26:21

women

26:22

Yeah. and, you know, learn from an

26:26

expert whom they respect. There's as

26:28

much the social experience. That's going

26:30

to become more important. Relationships

26:33

are going to become more important. Many

26:34

people in our business

26:36

I think are going to be out of jobs

26:38

because

26:39

uh the business has become really

26:42

nothing I I shouldn't be this

26:45

disrespectful. It's not quite right.

26:47

But, uh at all. Uh but you know, so many

26:50

are just hugging benchmarks

26:53

uh whether it's S&P 500 or MSCI World or

26:58

the Nasdaq that a machine can do that. A

27:02

machine can do that easily. And that is

27:04

what passive investing is is machines

27:06

doing it.

27:08

I think in order to earn a place in the

27:10

new world, you've got to add a lot of

27:13

value, more value than a machine can.

27:16

So, in our case, we're saying "Okay,

27:19

well, our stocks are not in those

27:21

benchmarks." Uh and therefore

27:25

you know, they're they're We are doing

27:28

original research trying to figure out

27:30

who they are and where they are, these

27:32

these companies that are going to

27:34

transform the world. Why can't AI

27:36

replace what you're doing in terms of

27:38

So, and we think about that all the

27:40

time. So, AI

27:42

can

27:44

use pattern recognition. It's all based

27:47

on history, right? Uh it can use pattern

27:50

recognition, maybe, to do what we're

27:53

doing.

27:55

What are the three characteristics that

27:58

define an innovation platform for us?

28:01

The most important one is they follow

28:04

something called Wright's Law, which

28:07

measures the learning curve, how fast

28:10

the costs are going to decline

28:12

with this new technology. Technology is

28:14

deflationary. Costs fall over time and

28:18

they're passed through into lower prices

28:20

or better performance, one or the other.

28:23

Um

28:24

that is the most important. A machine

28:26

can figure that out, I'm sure. But,

28:29

asking the questions uh are going to be

28:32

important. Like

28:34

there wasn't before 2014 when we started

28:38

Arc much on autonomous mobility or

28:42

eVTOLs

28:43

or, for that matter, AI. AI had become

28:46

science fiction. There weren't any

28:47

breakthroughs in recent years. But, then

28:50

we got some breakthroughs. So, could So,

28:54

Wright's Law is the first, figure out

28:55

that cost curve decline, and and see how

28:58

quickly the technology can prolific

29:00

proliferate across sectors. That's the

29:03

other criteria criterion here. The

29:07

technologies

29:09

that we are following are going to cut

29:12

across economic sectors and apply uh

29:15

to more than one group of people. And

29:19

then, the third is that these

29:22

technologies serve as launching pads for

29:24

new technologies. So, in the case of DNA

29:29

sequencing, which was the base

29:30

technology we needed that

29:34

before CRISPR gene editing

29:37

uh could be created. We needed to be

29:40

able to understand what was mutating in

29:44

the genome, where the programming errors

29:46

were, so that gene editing could come in

29:50

and edit out those programming errors.

29:53

And do you think in 5 10 years from now

29:55

that unemployment is going to be higher

29:57

or lower?

29:58

In 5 or 10 years,

30:01

um

30:02

let's let's assume we don't have a

30:05

policy mistake and and a recession. So

30:07

just just steady state,

30:09

I think it will be the same or lower.

30:14

And most of this is because those baby

30:16

boomers are retiring.

30:18

Uh they

30:19

come out of the employment

30:20

They come out of the labor force. And uh

30:24

and the generations following them are

30:27

smaller. Even now what's happening is

30:31

uh we're we're passing through the baby

30:34

boom echo, meaning the children of the

30:36

baby boom. That cohort was

30:40

I don't think it was any bigger than the

30:42

baby boom uh

30:44

baby boom population. Do you think

30:46

there's because of the speed of and the

30:48

acceleration of AI the like this the

30:52

length of careers has radically reduced

30:55

cuz you would go to like you'd go to

30:56

school, then you go to university, you

30:58

qualify as I know an accountant and

31:01

that's like a 10-15 year process. You

31:03

get a job as an accountant, you start

31:04

working your way up. But now with AI

31:05

coming in, these some of these jobs are

31:07

being

31:08

completely annihilated

31:10

extremely quickly. At the same time vibe

31:14

coding

31:14

Yeah. is booming. So I think what's

31:18

going to happen and this will be very

31:21

healthy for productivity. We're going to

31:22

have a lot more experimentation and

31:24

people taking risks on themselves. Uh

31:27

and maybe this idea of a corporation as

31:30

we know it is going to change radically.

31:32

You know, crypto is enabling distributed

31:37

autonomous organizations.

31:39

Uh just like Bitcoin, there's there's no

31:43

no one governing it, right?

31:47

The it's a distributed network.

31:50

And you know, let's see how these do and

31:54

how vibe coding

31:57

and AI integrate into the crypto I and

32:01

I'm going to stop calling it crypto

32:03

because it should be called digital

32:04

assets world, which legitimizes it more.

32:07

Crypto sounds nefarious. Digital assets

32:10

is where you know, more than

32:13

young people and uh I'll say

32:16

young people are spending more than half

32:19

of their discretionary their free time

32:21

online.

32:22

And so property ownership online is

32:25

becoming more important. It's it's being

32:28

legitimized by the way people are

32:30

spending their time. On this point of

32:32

robotics and AI, your your biggest

32:33

position I believe is Tesla, isn't it in

32:35

your fund?

32:36

Yes. Um

32:37

but obviously Elon decided that he

32:39

wanted to go into politics.

32:41

He wanted to do

32:42

Oh, Elon. the Department of Government

32:44

Efficiency called Dodge. So teaming up

32:46

with Trump to try and eliminate

32:48

government waste. Now as an investor

32:50

Mhm.

32:51

you must

32:54

not love that. Well, the I I have two um

32:58

I have Cuz it did impact

33:00

two points of view.

33:00

performance of the company. Do you know

33:01

I have I drive a Tesla when I go to

33:03

America and it was the first time ever

33:06

on the last trip to America in January.

33:07

I live in LA now. Oh. Um what what I'm

33:10

driving my you know, my cybertruck. It's

33:12

the full self-driving. It's incredible.

33:14

But it was the first time ever I

33:15

thought, [ __ ] I like I could be

33:17

attacked. So I probably shouldn't get a

33:19

cybertruck. I should probably get

33:21

something else cuz I had all these

33:22

reports of people being attacked.

33:23

Mhm. And so it was quite interesting to

33:25

hear in the earnings report which I

33:26

listened to that there's been this

33:28

decline in revenue in profitability in

33:31

vehicle sales growth etc. in Q1 of this

33:34

year

33:34

Mhm. which I think even Elon in that in

33:36

that earnings call highlights is a

33:38

consequence of him becoming political.

33:42

Yes. Uh I think that surprised him. Uh

33:45

um

33:46

so

33:47

I have many thoughts about this. Our

33:49

government has become so bloated, it is

33:53

scary. And uh our indebtedness is

33:56

growing.

33:58

And if we want to remain the reserve

34:00

currency of the world we're at risk of

34:03

of losing it and and on our tail is the

34:06

whole

34:07

digital asset world, right? So

34:10

um

34:11

government spending is taxation.

34:15

It's either taxation that's going to

34:17

happen immediately or will happen in the

34:19

future

34:20

or will happen through inflation, which

34:22

is the most regressive tax at all. So I

34:25

think his the the sentiment was was

34:29

right in terms of you know, getting in

34:31

there and seeing what technology can do

34:34

for the government, which is really

34:35

what's happening. I'm watching it in the

34:37

FDA how they're starting to use AI. It's

34:41

phenomenal what's happening.

34:43

Uh so

34:45

the question I usually get So I I'm very

34:47

happy that uh

34:50

half of the solution is understanding

34:52

the problem, that someone is in there

34:55

with that focus and determination. He of

34:58

course has said he's stepping away uh

35:00

this month as a matter of fact to spend

35:03

more time with his companies. Which you

35:05

must be happy about.

35:06

Well, of course I'm happy about it, but

35:08

I I have with the exception of this

35:11

political dynamic, I don't think

35:14

that Elon

35:16

uh not being there on a day-to-day basis

35:19

is what has caused the problem in the

35:21

first quarter. It was much more macro.

35:25

We had a negative quarter in real GDP

35:28

growth in the first quarter. So macro

35:31

which is hitting everyone and the

35:33

overlay of this political dynamic. The

35:36

news cycle, thank goodness, moves fast

35:39

and so we'll we'll be through that I

35:41

think. And by the way, there are news

35:43

reports even this weekend saying those

35:47

who were feeling about him you know,

35:51

as it relates to Dodge and you know, one

35:54

party are having a change of heart

35:57

because tax rates are going to come down

36:00

because we're being more disciplined on

36:02

the on the government spending side.

36:06

Elon's way of

36:09

managing his companies is to attract the

36:13

best and the brightest, not only

36:16

scientists, engineers but also business

36:19

people.

36:21

Uh they these are people who want to

36:23

solve the hardest problems in the world.

36:26

Um he sets a timeline

36:29

that seems uh reasonable to him for

36:33

milestones to occur.

36:35

And he doesn't interfere unless they

36:38

start missing those milestones or the

36:40

timing of those milestones. Then he gets

36:43

involved and that's where you hear he'll

36:45

go in and he'll just fire people

36:47

wholesale and you know, and and you

36:51

know, get the program going again. And

36:53

he's he's done that certainly at Tesla.

36:56

He's done that at all of his companies.

36:59

And so he's really

37:00

troubleshooter-in-chief.

37:02

Once he understands and has set a

37:04

strategy

37:06

he then becomes troubleshooter-in-chief.

37:08

Have you met him? Oh yes, we did

37:10

actually. Our

37:11

first podcast with him was in 2019. Oh I

37:15

saw that podcast.

37:16

production hell. Yeah. And uh we were so

37:20

happy. So as you know, we have a social

37:23

strategy, so we push our research out

37:25

through social media as we give it away

37:28

or as we're evolving it. And uh he liked

37:34

a piece of research that Tasha Keeney

37:37

had put out on autonomous back then. And

37:40

I was on a phone call I couldn't get

37:42

off, but I heard this whooping and

37:44

screaming through the office and I I I

37:47

thought it sounded good. It wasn't an

37:48

emergency, so I I didn't have to leave

37:50

that call, but I got out. I said, "What

37:52

happened?" "Elon." And I said, "Okay,

37:55

ask him if we can do a podcast." And we

37:57

were there the next week. Oh,

37:59

incredible. Yeah. What do you think of

38:00

him as a entrepreneur?

38:02

I think he's the Thomas Edison of our

38:05

age in terms of uh in terms of his

38:09

um

38:11

in innovative ingenuity and

38:16

I also think having met him a number of

38:19

times, I think he's a very good person.

38:22

He wants to do the right thing. If I had

38:24

to say one thing, he wants to do the

38:26

right thing to transform

38:30

the lot of most of humanity. And he

38:34

started

38:35

uh with Tesla, SpaceX and Tesla

38:40

Tesla, you know, was a an environmental

38:43

move. Which I think a lot of people

38:46

attacking his cars who are probably very

38:49

um

38:50

supportive of the environmental

38:53

movement, uh they they've forgotten.

38:56

Sending

38:58

uh

38:58

a rocket to Mars and with humanoid

39:01

robots and ultimately people um he

39:04

thinks will transform

39:07

life on Earth as well because as we've

39:10

learned from space history uh what we

39:13

learn about material science and

39:17

technologies that help us break through

39:20

into these very difficult or problems to

39:24

solve is going to help us here on Earth

39:27

as well. Uh so I think he's a very good

39:30

person and wants to do the right thing.

39:33

That if I had to describe him, that's

39:35

what I say other than genius of our

39:37

time.

39:39

I often wonder, right? You know, cuz

39:40

he's had such a impact on the world in

39:41

many, many ways through the companies he

39:43

started. I think the uh the biggest risk

39:46

really is just his own his own health.

39:48

Doesn't seem to sleep much.

39:50

You know though, he he says that he does

39:52

sleep. I think he he he he recommends, I

39:55

think, if I'm right on this, getting 7

39:56

hours sleep a night.

39:59

Uh

40:00

uh and

40:01

yes, but when when he is focused,

40:05

uh you know it. And I mean, people even

40:09

look and they they There were many

40:12

pictures of him, whether it was

40:14

standing, you know, with other policy

40:16

makers,

40:18

and then he zones into something you

40:20

know he's zoned in and thinking about

40:22

only that and a problem that he wants to

40:25

solve. So, You've invested what, just

40:27

over 2 billion in Tesla? Let's see. So,

40:30

it would be roughly, yes. In that

40:33

region?

40:33

Mhm.

40:34

Bitcoin. Mhm. You invested in Bitcoin

40:37

very, very early. What was the the first

40:39

price what you bought Bitcoin for in I

40:42

think it was 2015?

40:44

Yes. It was in

40:47

um the summer of 2015.

40:50

Uh we got in at roughly $250.

40:54

Uh today it's $104,000,

40:56

I think, roughly. So, we did get in very

40:59

early.

41:00

And we knew we were onto something

41:04

uh really when people were making fun of

41:06

us saying, "Okay, that's a marketing

41:08

trick. You're you're new to our business

41:10

and you know, new to our to the new fund

41:13

world and uh you're trying to attract

41:16

attention." And we were thinking, "Wow,

41:17

they have no idea how much research

41:19

we've done on this."

41:21

And Art Laffer,

41:23

uh my professor, again, from USC, we had

41:26

him uh

41:28

we had him read our first white paper on

41:31

Bitcoin.

41:33

Bitcoin, could it serve the three roles

41:36

of money? So, means of exchange, what we

41:39

use every day uh to to buy things,

41:43

a store of value, uh like gold,

41:47

and unit of account. Would prices be

41:50

quoted in terms of Bitcoin?

41:53

Chris Bradysky was our first analyst on

41:55

Bitcoin,

41:56

wrote the paper, Art Reddit,

41:59

and you know, from a added to it

42:02

enormously in terms of economic theory,

42:05

which was great for us.

42:07

And then he said to us, he said, "This

42:09

is what I've been waiting for since the

42:12

US closed the gold window in 1971.

42:16

A rules-based

42:19

global

42:21

monetary system

42:23

like Bretton Woods under the gold

42:25

exchange standard."

42:27

And I said, "Art, that's a very big

42:30

idea.

42:31

Uh how big is it?"

42:33

And he said, "Well, how big is the the

42:35

monetary base of the US?

42:37

Uh back then it was 4 and 1/2 trillion.

42:41

And Bitcoin's market cap or network

42:44

value was 6 billion."

42:46

And I said,

42:48

"Okay, that's a very big idea."

42:50

And we were trying to get it into our

42:52

portfolios. Regulators were hesitant and

42:56

but I bought it right then for for

42:59

myself and haven't sold it and I'm very

43:02

happy with it. You bought it for

43:04

yourself personally?

43:05

Personally, because we couldn't buy it.

43:07

$250.

43:09

Uh so, we couldn't buy it back then, but

43:11

we finally got through the regulatory

43:13

process and we were able to put the New

43:17

York Stock Exchange said, "Okay, you can

43:19

put a 1% position in the portfolio."

43:23

And it was of a grantor trust called

43:25

GBTC.

43:26

So, we did. And we just never sold it.

43:29

They didn't tell us we had to keep it at

43:31

at 1%. So, Oh, it's risen to be more.

43:34

Oh, yes, it it ballooned. And what is it

43:37

about Bitcoin that you believe

43:40

was and is still a a good investment

43:43

opportunity for the average person? Yes.

43:46

So,

43:47

at this at this price, it's about a $2

43:51

trillion uh market

43:52

uh market cap.

43:54

And so, halfway to that original 4 and

43:57

1/2 trillion,

43:59

but our price target actually has

44:01

expanded since then.

44:03

Um because it's not just a global

44:07

monetary system.

44:10

It is a new asset class.

44:13

And that's a very big idea as well. What

44:16

makes a new asset class? And we haven't

44:19

had one truly since

44:22

equities in the 1600s. When you say a

44:25

new asset class, you mean a completely

44:26

new category of

44:28

of funding companies, yes. Right?

44:31

So, an asset class would be something

44:32

like technology is an asset class,

44:34

right? No, it would be like stocks,

44:37

bonds, commodities,

44:39

real estate.

44:41

This is a new asset class and most

44:44

people will agree with that. We we did a

44:47

study on it.

44:49

If this asset does not perform like

44:53

other assets, in other words, it

44:55

provides diversification for funds.

44:59

And because it is behaving differently,

45:04

institutions have to consider it

45:06

uh because they're competing against

45:08

each other and if one puts it in,

45:11

they all know they're competing against

45:13

each other. So, others have to consider

45:15

it.

45:16

And uh we believe that part of the

45:20

opportunity has not been tapped. And

45:23

just to put some numbers on this, right

45:26

now,

45:28

we're approaching 20 million Bitcoin

45:31

outstanding. Which means the number of

45:34

Bitcoin that

45:35

uh have been minted

45:38

over time

45:40

uh by Bitcoin miners. So, there's 21

45:43

million in total, right? There will be

45:45

at the end of the minting process, 21

45:49

million. So, we have only 1 million to

45:52

go. Yeah. Uh 1 million would be

45:57

what is that?

46:00

That would be a hundred billion dollars

46:02

worth, a little more than that, right

46:04

now. So, just for someone that might not

46:06

know much about Bitcoin, Bitcoin is

46:07

mined using computers and so far they've

46:10

mined 20 million of them and there's 1

46:12

million of them left to mine. Mhm. Yeah.

46:15

So, institutions

46:18

really just started considering Bitcoin

46:21

cuz the SEC gave the

46:23

uh the the green light

46:25

uh to Bitcoin with uh the the approval

46:30

of the spot Bitcoin ETF in January of

46:33

last year.

46:35

And it takes a while for institutions to

46:37

do their research and and commit.

46:39

Uh and so, they're just now committing

46:42

and there's only a hundred billion

46:45

dollars

46:46

of new ma- market cap uh that is going

46:51

to be created, whereas they have

46:55

trillions of dollars under management.

46:58

Um and so, we think there will be a lot

47:02

of incremental demand and uh to satisfy

47:07

a lot of that demand, someone's going to

47:09

have to sell.

47:11

Which means the price goes up.

47:12

Which yeah, if people don't want to sell

47:15

because Bitcoin's been awfully good. And

47:18

our forecast, right now it's um

47:21

right now the Bitcoin's around a

47:23

hundred, a hundred five thousand. Our

47:26

forecast

47:28

uh for 2030

47:30

is 1.5 million dollars.

47:34

And we do that uh

47:37

uh

47:38

the building blocks for that, the three

47:40

biggest building blocks

47:42

are institutional, which has barely

47:44

started,

47:46

uh store of value or digital gold. Young

47:50

people

47:51

are much more

47:53

uh

47:54

comfortable with digital gold than gold.

47:58

So, on the institutional side, that

48:00

means institutions, investment

48:02

institutions start investing in it. Mhm.

48:04

Young people start investing it in it as

48:06

a way to save and store their money.

48:07

Yes. Yes.

48:09

And then uh the

48:12

the the the the very important use case

48:15

that many people do not discuss is how

48:19

important Bitcoin and stablecoins, which

48:23

are backed by US Treasuries,

48:25

are going to become to the emerging

48:28

markets.

48:30

Uh in emerging markets, many of them are

48:33

at the whim of policy makers who uh

48:37

show no discipline in fiscal or monetary

48:39

policy. And so, they they're used to

48:42

going through booms and busts and booms

48:44

and bailed out by the IMF and they need

48:49

an insurance policy. So, if you're in

48:51

Venezuela, you need a currency that's

48:53

going to be stable.

48:54

Exactly.

48:55

Well, this Bitcoin is

48:58

uh so, stablecoins are stable vis-à-vis

49:01

uh the dollar.

49:03

Uh Bitcoin is more of an investment

49:07

because

49:08

it does appreciate over time. Now, you

49:12

go through it's volatile, no question,

49:14

and that's the first thing people have

49:15

to know about it. Uh but it is becoming

49:18

less volatile as more and more

49:21

investors hold it. So, you think Bitcoin

49:24

will potentially

49:26

multiply in value by 15 times in the

49:29

next 5 years? Mhm.

49:32

Wow, that'd be pretty crazy. It's a very

49:34

big idea because it is a new asset

49:36

class, it does represent a global

49:39

monetary system unlike any other digital

49:43

asset out there.

49:45

Um it is backed by the largest computer

49:48

network in the world. The the layer one,

49:52

which is the base layer, has not been

49:54

hacked. Think about that, since 2009

49:57

when it was released, not been hacked.

50:00

How many how how many systems can say

50:04

that?

50:05

And it is a technology. It is native to

50:09

the internet. And again,

50:12

digital assets or any Bitcoin, Ether,

50:16

Solana,

50:18

all of them exist because they're vying

50:21

to be the native currencies to the

50:23

internet. And to to enable smart

50:27

contracts

50:29

and really transform the financial

50:32

services industry. Why did you invest in

50:34

Coinbase?

50:36

Coinbase is um

50:39

an exchange

50:41

for for digital assets.

50:45

And uh and increasingly derivatives.

50:49

It has just It has gone global.

50:52

It just bought Deribit, which is the

50:55

largest options uh exchange out there.

50:59

Uh and it owns a futures. So, it's

51:03

really going after uh

51:05

the derivatives market where there's a

51:07

huge amount of activity, which is

51:09

fantastic because it's all legitimizing

51:12

digital assets.

51:14

And it is the most regulatory compliant

51:17

exchange in the world. Um

51:20

Binance is another major exchange, but

51:24

has had more run-ins with regulators

51:26

around the world and really hasn't been

51:28

allowed into the United States.

51:30

It also wants to become

51:33

part of the new payments infrastructure.

51:37

And so is evolving strategies that way

51:39

as well.

51:41

Um we've gotten to know management very

51:43

well. They fought the fight against

51:45

regulators in a magnificent way, and

51:48

they have educated policy makers um

51:52

importantly, who understand that this

51:56

innovation we almost lost this

51:57

innovation to the rest of the world

51:59

because of our regulatory stance.

52:01

Uh they've helped policy makers

52:04

understand that, "Hey,

52:06

you know, this this infrastructure is

52:10

what developers did not build into the

52:13

internet in the early '90s cuz they

52:16

didn't know finance or commerce would

52:18

take place. That's all this is. It's

52:21

that simple, right?" So, if I'm trying

52:23

to invest in just to summarize it, if

52:25

I'm trying to invest in AI, that you'll

52:27

keep positions there and you'll keep

52:28

thoughts on companies like Tesla. I

52:30

heard you invest in Twilio.

52:32

Uh we we had invested in Twilio. They

52:35

had a uh they had a management turnover,

52:37

so we moved away from that. But uh

52:40

Palantir Palantir?

52:42

Yes, Palantir is a platform as a service

52:45

company, which we think uh is not only

52:48

going to help governance move

52:50

governments move into the digital age,

52:53

like our defense department, and now

52:55

it's moving into other departments, but

52:57

also these huge huge enterprises

53:01

because it's not forcing them to rip and

53:04

replace anything. They'll build on top

53:06

of whatever technology infrastructure is

53:08

there and over time just use usurp the

53:11

role of the legacy technologies. So,

53:15

very important company we think in uh

53:18

the digital age. It's had a very big

53:20

run. We have taken profits and, you

53:23

know, while it was having a big run,

53:25

Nvidia was selling off. It was down more

53:28

than 50%. So, we put some of our

53:31

Palantir proceeds in back into Nvidia.

53:34

Is there anything else in the AI bucket

53:36

when you're thinking about stocks? Well,

53:38

when you're thinking about uh

53:41

chip companies in particular,

53:44

uh TSM is the platform for chip

53:48

manufacturing. It doesn't matter who

53:51

wins. We We do think there are going to

53:54

be many more competitors to Nvidia.

53:57

Nvidia is still number one. Have you

53:58

heard about Grok?

54:00

Oh, yes, Grok we are invested in in our

54:03

um

54:04

in our private fund. Oh, okay. So, just

54:08

for people that might be confused. Do

54:09

you mean Grok with a Q? Uh yes, that's

54:11

that's in our private fund. We own We do

54:13

own Grok. And that's a very important

54:15

company on the inference side of um

54:19

of the equation. I've invested in Grok

54:21

as well.

54:22

Yeah. I should probably disclaim that.

54:24

Well, I think I think you're going to do

54:26

very well. Um

54:28

So, TSM though is where all the chip

54:31

manufacturers go uh for production. It

54:34

is the most sophisticated manufacturer

54:36

of chips uh in the world. Uh there is

54:39

geopolitical risk there. Most of its

54:41

business is in Taiwan. It is

54:44

diversifying into uh

54:47

certainly into the US, and I think even

54:49

into Europe. Uh so, I think uh that will

54:53

continue to be a very important company

54:55

as well. So, what are the What are you

54:57

What's your top 10?

54:59

In terms of public stocks that anybody

55:00

can invest in.

55:02

If you had to give me your top 10. So,

55:04

I'd have to give you and they're listed

55:06

on our website, and I won't go in order,

55:09

I'm sure, but of course, Tesla,

55:12

Coinbase,

55:14

uh Robinhood, uh Roku is uh an operating

55:19

system for connected TVs, highly

55:22

misunderstood stock. CRISPR

55:24

Therapeutics, which uh is

55:27

Gene editing?

55:28

Gene editing for sickle cell disease and

55:31

uh beta thalassemia.

55:33

Uh Palantir, I think I've mentioned uh

55:36

in the AI software space. Archer just

55:40

moved into the top 10. It's the EVTOL

55:44

company, which and it also signed a

55:46

deal, an exclusive deal on both sides,

55:49

which was quite impressive, uh with

55:51

Anduril, which Anduril, which is the um

55:55

most sophisticated defense tech play uh

56:00

and is growing like gangbusters. So, so

56:03

that's terrific. Shopify,

56:07

uh which is a shopping platform back end

56:11

and really using uh AI. Roblox? Oh,

56:16

that's the one we're missing. Roblox.

56:19

Roblox.

56:19

is a game, right? Yes, it's a

56:21

user-generated gaming company.

56:25

Uh the fascinating and it's also a

56:26

social platform.

56:28

Uh it started for children younger than

56:31

13 years old. And what's interesting

56:35

about it is

56:37

they've stayed with it because 60% of

56:40

its user base now is above 13.

56:42

Which is very interesting. It's the

56:45

largest user-generated

56:47

uh

56:48

um

56:48

content provider out there.

56:51

And what is fascinating about it is I

56:54

know one of my friend's daughter has

56:57

started her own dress shop on Roblox,

57:00

and what she doesn't understand is that

57:02

she's she's learning about business, but

57:04

she's also learning how to code,

57:06

especially in this new vibe coding

57:08

world. So, I think it's going to be a

57:11

very important company going forward.

57:13

Uh the the interesting thing about

57:15

gaming

57:17

and technology transitions is that it is

57:20

the only entertainment median medium

57:25

that has not fallen apart with

57:28

technology transitions.

57:30

Mhm.

57:31

Um it has actually grown because those

57:34

who love their games from 25 years ago

57:38

still play them. It's grown with each

57:40

technology revolution. So, uh and

57:43

user-generated content in gaming is

57:48

um the next big thing.

57:50

A business is only as good as the people

57:52

inside it. So, how do you make sure

57:54

you're hiring the best? Our sponsor

57:56

LinkedIn can help you find these

57:57

applicants quickly. I believe in taking

57:59

time to hire slowly, but I also

58:01

understand that once you've decided to

58:03

hire, you want to get the ball rolling

58:05

and get the best candidates in front of

58:07

you to start interviewing. And that's

58:08

where paying to promote your role on

58:09

LinkedIn makes all the difference

58:11

because you'll get applicants seven

58:13

times faster than if you post your job

58:15

for free. And even though slower, more

58:18

considered hiring is important, you

58:20

never want your hiring platforms to be

58:21

what's holding you back. LinkedIn keeps

58:23

pace. It takes care of the heavy

58:25

lifting, sending you highly skilled

58:27

candidates that you wouldn't find

58:29

anywhere else. So, when the time comes

58:31

to make your next hire, make it count

58:32

and promote your job on LinkedIn. Head

58:34

to linkedin.com/doac.

58:36

That's linkedin.com/doac,

58:39

and terms and conditions apply.

58:42

Make sure you keep what I'm about to say

58:43

to yourself. I'm inviting 10,000 of you

58:46

to come even deeper into the Diary of a

58:47

CEO. Welcome to my inner circle. This is

58:51

a brand new private community that I'm

58:53

launching to the world. We have so many

58:54

incredible things that happen that you

58:56

are never shown. We have the briefs that

58:59

are on my iPad when I'm recording the

59:00

conversation. We have clips we've never

59:02

released. We have behind-the-scenes

59:04

conversations with the guest, and also

59:05

the episodes that we've never ever

59:08

released, and so much more. In the

59:11

circle, you'll have direct access to me.

59:13

You can tell us what you want this show

59:14

to be, who you want us to interview, and

59:16

the types of conversations you would

59:17

love us to have. But remember, for now,

59:20

we're only inviting the first 10,000

59:22

people that join before it closes. So,

59:24

if you want to join our private close

59:26

community, head to the link in the

59:27

description below or go to doac

59:29

circle.com.

59:32

I will speak to you then.

59:34

If you had a thousand dollars to invest

59:36

Mhm. and you had to invest it somewhere,

59:39

where would you be investing it?

59:43

Well,

59:44

and how would you be like the general

59:45

philosophy towards wealth creation at

59:48

such a stage if you had a thousand

59:50

dollars? How would you be thinking about

59:51

creating wealth for yourself?

59:54

A couple of things.

59:56

Averaging into

59:59

um

60:00

either an ETF

60:03

What's an ETF? ETF, exchange-traded

60:06

fund. So, it treats a group of stocks

60:10

like one stock. Mhm. So, ARKK

60:14

is

60:16

it's nearly it's 35 36 stocks,

60:21

but you can buy them

60:23

by purchasing ARKK. And you can do that

60:26

on your mobile phone by downloading

60:27

do it on your mobile phone.

60:29

of different apps that allow you to just

60:30

buy that one ETF, which means you own 35

60:32

stocks. Yes. And

60:35

And your team are basically choosing

60:36

what those 35 stocks are

60:38

Yes. based on your research. Right. And

60:41

ARKK are our highest conviction stocks,

60:45

uh and they they they offer an exposure

60:48

to all of the innovation platforms that

60:51

we've talked about. Whereas ARKI here in

60:55

Europe is focused primarily on

60:59

artificial intelligence and robotics.

61:02

Because we think that convergence is

61:04

going to be pretty explosive. What you

61:06

don't get there

61:09

uh and you do get in ARKK,

61:13

we also have in another very focused

61:16

fund, ARKG, which is really health care

61:20

applications of AI. Um and and other

61:23

health care other health care names that

61:26

we think uh are going to be pretty

61:28

transformative in the new world as

61:31

regulators really understand how

61:34

important AI is going to become to

61:38

discovery,

61:39

uh research, trials, development, uh to

61:43

diagnostic tests, and to curing disease.

61:46

Another question popped up, which is

61:47

about Ethereum and these other

61:48

cryptocurrencies. Do you invest in any

61:50

of these these others? Yes, we have uh

61:52

we have Well, in our public funds, we've

61:55

put them. I I don't think we can own

61:58

them here in the UK yet, but in the in

61:59

the US, uh we have them in um

62:03

some of our funds, both of them. Mhm.

62:06

They're key to the financial services

62:09

re- revolution. So,

62:11

uh to get people to understand and feel

62:13

comfortable with that, uh we don't call

62:16

it the crypto revolution. It's the

62:18

digital assets revolution, and it's

62:20

simply the finternet, the financial

62:23

internet. Okay, so that So, we do. We

62:26

do. And do you believe Are you more

62:27

bullish on the price potential of

62:29

Bitcoin than Ethereum?

62:31

Yes, we think Bitcoin is the biggest

62:34

idea. It serves the three three

62:37

revolutions. Global monetary system,

62:40

they do not.

62:41

Um

62:43

New asset class, they are part of a new

62:44

asset class, but Bitcoin's going to be

62:46

the biggest. And new technology, it's

62:49

the most secure

62:51

uh blockchain technology out there.

62:53

What about all these other Solana and

62:54

all these other So, Ether and Solana, so

62:56

the big three are the are those are the

63:00

the big three. Um and we think they'll

63:03

all be successful, all three of them.

63:06

Bitcoin the most. We're very interested

63:08

in stablecoins, but that's just like

63:10

cash. Uh and you know, there are

63:12

millions of crypto assets out there. We

63:15

think most of them die. Is there any way

63:17

to invest in stablecoins?

63:20

Like how do you invest them in in the

63:21

stablecoin?

63:22

right now, it is through Coinbase. They

63:24

have a deal with Circle.

63:27

Um any any revenue that Circle

63:30

generates, it's it's it's stablecoin is

63:33

USDC.

63:35

Yeah. Any revenue, they split 50/50

63:38

uh in US.

63:40

Uh Circle itself has announced that it

63:42

is going public, and so we're looking

63:45

forward to that.

63:46

And what's what's the the sort of

63:48

psychology or mentality one has to adopt

63:50

to be a good investor?

63:52

Depends what you've bought. If you buy a

63:56

strategy like ours, which would be in

63:58

the aggressive growth strategy,

64:01

put it in you know, averaging in over

64:04

time, just like with Bitcoin as I

64:05

mentioned earlier.

64:07

Uh averaging in over time

64:08

What does averaging in mean? Averaging

64:10

in means, you know, buy a little every

64:13

month, maybe every payday.

64:16

I think one of my daughters was buying

64:18

Bitcoin every week, but not a Bitcoin.

64:21

She couldn't do that. A Satoshi, you

64:23

know, so

64:24

And

64:25

close your eyes. Like you're this is a

64:28

long-term investment. If we're right, uh

64:32

according to our analysis. Now, you This

64:35

is our research, our analysis, no

64:37

promises. We can't do that, but

64:41

according to our research, the

64:43

technologies around which we have

64:44

centered our research

64:47

uh and which have focused our

64:48

investments,

64:50

they we believe will go up more than

64:54

tenfold in the next five to ten years.

64:59

And that's how much explosive growth we

65:02

have ahead of us as these technologies

65:05

converge

65:07

and create incredible opportunities for

65:09

investors.

65:11

And you know, I'm hearing a lot of

65:12

invest a lot of people um as they get

65:16

into investing, of course they have

65:18

their day jobs, but once they have

65:22

accrued enough,

65:24

you know, they're making choices about

65:27

dialing down their day jobs and spending

65:29

more time investing. You asked, what are

65:31

some of the jobs of the future going to

65:32

be? I think individual investors

65:35

are going to be providing for themselves

65:38

if they are investing on the right side

65:40

of change. So, if you're right, that

65:42

means that by investing your fund, I'd

65:43

make a thousand percent return roughly.

65:46

Yes, no promises, but this is all based

65:48

on research, and you can find it in our

65:51

big ideas.

65:53

Uh big ideas 2025 is on our website,

65:57

ark-invest.com.

66:00

Uh and you can find a lot more

66:03

of information about our funds on

66:07

ark-funds

66:09

uh dot com. And I should probably say

66:11

this is not in investing advice.

66:13

It is not, and and I want to make sure

66:16

Do your own research. You can lose all

66:17

of your money. Yes. You can lose all of

66:19

it if you decide to do any of these

66:20

things. But that's why we put ark-invest

66:23

separate from the fund site, because

66:25

that's just research. Learn. Learn what

66:27

you're investing in, or learn why we've

66:31

invested uh the the way we have. You

66:35

know, that's that's what we do all day

66:38

long is we try and help Well, first of

66:40

all, we're doing the research. We are

66:42

making the investments, but I think one

66:44

of the most important things we do

66:47

is communicate what we're doing and why

66:50

we're doing it.

66:53

What do you think of Trump tariffs,

66:56

everything that's going on in America at

66:57

the moment? What's, you know, for the

66:59

average person, should they be

67:00

concerned? Are you bullish? Do you think

67:02

Trump's got it right? If you look at

67:04

what happened to the equity market when

67:07

Trump was elected, the stock market. Uh

67:09

yes, the stock market. It went crazy to

67:12

the upside, as did our strategy.

67:15

And why?

67:17

The promise was

67:19

deregulation, and that I think is

67:21

underestimated uh how important it is,

67:23

because we're strangling in regulation.

67:25

It's just

67:27

This is not our DNA. We We got to get

67:29

out from under this.

67:31

Lower taxes,

67:34

lo- lower interest rates is what he

67:37

wants, of course. Um and lower tariffs.

67:42

What he didn't tell us

67:44

was exactly how he was going to go about

67:47

that process.

67:48

And it has it has felt chaotic.

67:53

And I've had to go out and explain

67:56

what's going on, try to explain what's

67:58

going on.

68:01

And I I have to tell you, it scared me

68:06

silly to see what was going on, because

68:09

I knew that businesses

68:12

were paralyzed, and that we could have a

68:14

mess on our hands.

68:17

And I certainly com- communicated

68:19

through my channels. Art communicated

68:22

through his channels. In fact, I think

68:25

in one publication, he said, I have

68:27

never been more scared in my career.

68:31

We were trying to really get into

68:36

Trump's head, and and I know President

68:38

Trump listens to Art, but he also

68:40

listens to a lot of other people. One of

68:42

whom was Peter Navarro,

68:45

who seemed to have

68:47

a hold on Trump when it came to tariffs.

68:51

And yet, when I saw Treasury Secretary

68:54

Bessant really push aside Navarro, and

68:57

that could only happen with Trump, I

68:59

knew we were going to be okay. I knew we

69:02

were going to be okay, because

69:03

throughout all of this chaos,

69:06

I think what he is trying to do is not

69:10

only get tariffs on the US down

69:15

throughout the world,

69:17

but maybe more important, get non-tariff

69:20

trade barriers down. Like for example,

69:24

I didn't even know the UK would not

69:26

accept our beef or ethanol.

69:29

Well, Mhm.

69:30

now you're accepting our beef and

69:32

ethanol. I I don't know if I don't know

69:34

if people in the supermarkets will buy

69:36

it, but anyway, this was but other

69:39

countries much many many more non-tariff

69:43

trade barriers. And so he is just trying

69:46

to bust that up, you know, make it more

69:49

visible.

69:51

You know, for example, Canada, I think

69:53

they charged a 250% tariff on our milk.

69:58

And one of President Trump's promises

70:01

was to take care of the farmers. Okay?

70:05

That's why you see the rhetoric around

70:07

Canada. Now, do I agree with his style?

70:12

I would never do it that way. I'd never

70:14

do it that way. I and it was

70:17

unfathomable, you know, for me because

70:20

he is sensitive to business and he must

70:23

have known that everything was going to

70:24

stop.

70:25

And

70:27

but he also knows that he has to sound

70:31

crazy for other people to take him

70:33

seriously. And he has and people have to

70:36

believe he will do crazy things in order

70:39

for people to take him seriously. And he

70:41

does do crazy things. So, do you think

70:43

it's going to work out? I do. You do?

70:45

And I think the stock market is

70:47

beginning to smell it.

70:48

If I if I just had to invest in one

70:50

stock right now, what stock would you

70:51

recommend I invest in?

70:54

Okay, well, I have to give you our Your

70:56

portfolio. So, it'd be Tesla.

70:57

It would be Tesla if I if I had to give

71:00

you one stock. Okay, interesting.

71:03

Because think about it. It is it is a

71:06

convergence

71:08

among three of our major platforms. So,

71:12

robots, energy storage, AI.

71:15

And it's not stopping with robo-taxis.

71:18

There's a story beyond that with

71:19

humanoid robots. And our $2,600 number

71:23

has nothing for humanoid robots. We just

71:26

thought it'd be an investment period and

71:28

you know, the re

71:30

But I think he's going to start

71:31

generating not only productivity gains

71:34

internally,

71:35

but revenues from humanoid robots. What

71:39

are you concerned about?

71:41

In terms of the way that the world is

71:43

going and everything that's happening.

71:44

What are the things that keep you up at

71:45

night? I've got many of concerns, so

71:48

got many unanswered questions and

71:49

worries about how things might play out,

71:51

but keen to hear yours.

71:53

I am such an optimist. I really do have

71:55

to dig down deeply. If you'd asked me

71:58

this a few weeks ago, I would have said,

72:00

you know, this tariff situation is going

72:02

to blow the global economy up if we're

72:05

if we're not careful. So, I'm much more

72:09

settled about that right now.

72:11

I'd have to say I am concerned

72:15

that there are going to be people caught

72:18

out

72:19

um by these new technologies and for

72:23

whatever reason not willing to adapt

72:25

because there going to be huge

72:27

opportunities if they do.

72:29

And so one of the reasons we give away

72:31

our research, you know, I'm very honored

72:35

to do a podcast like this is to get that

72:38

word out.

72:40

There is so much information available.

72:42

You can just go to our site and listen

72:45

to our podcast. And if anything inspires

72:48

you, go for it because it's going the

72:52

opportunities are going to be enormous.

72:55

When you say you're concerned people

72:57

might get caught out? Caught out in

73:00

you know, disrupted industries. I mean,

73:03

we think the whole transportation

73:04

industry is going to be disrupted. Um we

73:09

think retail as we know it going to be

73:11

disrupted as we are

73:13

Retail is in like shops and stuff and

73:15

Yes, although if they adapt with more

73:18

social personal experiences, I think

73:20

that anything physical you'll want to

73:23

have a social dynamic associated with

73:25

it. But in terms of what I think is

73:28

going to happen to retail is we're going

73:31

to have our personal shopping assistants

73:34

and they're going to they're going to

73:37

anticipate what we want, which I can't

73:39

wait. I hate shopping. Uh anticipate

73:41

what we want uh or basically flag

73:45

something that they know we would like

73:47

if we would knew it were available. And

73:49

they'll be disintermediating

73:51

all of the traditional sources because

73:54

they can go anywhere in the world. Um so

73:57

just think about almost every sector is

74:00

going to be disrupted. Healthcare is

74:02

going to be disrupted enormously, I

74:04

think.

74:05

For the better. For the better, but

74:08

those who are wedded to doing things the

74:10

old way are probably going to be

74:13

disrupted, you know?

74:16

Yeah, that is my concern as well.

74:19

And and just how we handle that as a

74:20

society.

74:21

But I think if we can help people

74:25

understand

74:26

that they have a lot of control over

74:29

this

74:30

if they're willing to learn and dream

74:33

and use their imaginations.

74:35

Not everybody is though, as you know.

74:36

Yes, but they have to do it for their

74:37

children at least, right? If we took the

74:39

general population in the London and

74:41

said, "100 people, how many of you

74:43

understand what AI is?" Or "How many of

74:45

you use ChatGPT?" We'd have a certain

74:47

percentage, maybe I don't know, 50% or

74:49

more. If I went to

74:51

the countryside Yes.

74:54

and I stopped a lovely person shopping

74:57

at in the local village and said, "Do

74:58

you use ChatGPT?"

75:00

It'd probably be significantly lower

75:02

percentage. They be they they wouldn't

75:04

care about that. What is that? Whatever.

75:06

Um I I wo- wonder about the inequality

75:09

of like

75:11

education, but just initiative and how

75:14

those that really do have a proclivity

75:16

to lean in and to experiment and to mess

75:18

around and to learn

75:20

because maybe there's an incentive

75:21

because they work in a city and their

75:22

employer is asking them to or be off to

75:25

the races with this disruptive

75:26

technology. And there's just like a lot

75:28

of the rest of society, of middle

75:30

America and the countrysides and those

75:32

types of people who

75:35

are just not even going to see it

75:36

coming.

75:37

But that's why we're out there. And the

75:40

the important word that you used was

75:42

initiative because I really think uh you

75:45

know, when people hear the word

75:46

inequality,

75:48

uh

75:49

they like to blame something, right?

75:51

There will be no reason for this. I'm

75:55

sure someone's going to come back at me

75:56

for saying that, but I I'm of course

75:59

there are people who who we have to help

76:00

along the way. No question about it. But

76:03

for those who are healthy and uh are

76:07

listening to this podcast

76:10

and are saying

76:11

uh you know, I don't I don't know

76:14

exactly what she's talking about, but

76:16

I'm going to start reading up on some of

76:18

these

76:19

new ways of doing things and make sure

76:22

to at least understand it.

76:25

I think within that kind of initiative,

76:27

they'll find it. They just will find it.

76:29

There's going to be so much opportunity.

76:31

It's going to be so exciting. And I

76:34

think

76:35

again, creativity and you know,

76:38

especially young people using their

76:40

imaginations, you know, they're they're

76:43

not held back by any preconceived

76:45

notions. So, I ask all the questions I

76:48

ask because I'm trying to like solve

76:49

little question marks I have in my head

76:50

about the future. And it's really

76:52

difficult at this time to see around the

76:53

corner because so much is changing so

76:55

quickly. And there's all of these

76:56

converging technologies as you described

76:58

like robotics and AI. And then when I

77:00

put robotics and AI together, you're

77:01

like, "Fuck."

77:05

Do you know what I mean? Cuz I go like

77:07

there's like I keep coming back to this

77:09

question of like, "What am I going to

77:10

do?" And not in You know what's good

77:12

about that? You know what's really good

77:14

about that?

77:16

That will motivate you.

77:17

It does.

77:18

Of course it does. It's great. It's

77:20

great.

77:21

me to ask people like you the question

77:22

17 times in a row.

77:25

But it's a real point cuz I run

77:27

businesses. We have at our headquarters,

77:29

which is around the corner, it's about

77:30

25,000 square foot office. We have, you

77:32

know, hundreds of people in that

77:34

building. And I'm thinking about the

77:36

roles that we're hiring for and I'm

77:38

we're now looking at them through the

77:39

lens of agentic AI, so AI agents. And

77:42

And then if I overlay that with robotics

77:44

and AI,

77:45

you know, I'm going, "Oh, there's what

77:47

roles

77:48

would we need to hire in the future?"

77:49

Because

77:51

theoretically

77:53

like can you name a single role in a

77:55

media company that would when I'm

77:57

talking about in the robotics era that

77:59

would really need to be done by a human?

78:00

I guess other than one could say

78:03

human-to-human sales

78:05

would still have some kind of element of

78:07

human touch to them. You know though, I

78:09

mean, we've learned a lot from the

78:12

ancient game of Go. Yeah. So,

78:17

you've heard about AlphaGo, which was uh

78:20

Alphabet, Google.

78:22

Um

78:24

basically devising a program to compete

78:27

against the Go champions. Go is much

78:31

more complicated than chess. Yeah, it's

78:33

like a game a board game, basically.

78:35

Right.

78:36

Uh so, I think the the champion of the

78:38

world at the time was a South Korean.

78:41

And he was sure he was going to beat

78:43

this machine.

78:44

Well, the machine beat beat him.

78:47

And he was crestfallen.

78:50

And

78:51

then he got his

78:53

chutzpah,

78:55

to use a New York word, back. And

78:58

he said, "Wait a minute.

79:01

I'm going to start playing against

79:02

machines."

79:04

And so now

79:06

he's playing against machines. His game

79:09

is so much better that when he competes

79:12

against humans, and those competitions

79:15

are the more important ones.

79:17

Right? When he competes against other

79:20

human beings, the machine has kept him

79:24

as his champion. And of course,

79:25

everyone's using the machine. So, we're

79:27

all

79:28

we're going to artificial intelligence

79:30

But he still can't beat a machine, can

79:32

he? He still can't beat the best machine

79:33

in the world. No, he can't. And and But

79:36

I mean, he can occasionally. But but

79:39

people don't want to go see machines

79:41

competing against machines. I get that

79:44

in because human humans like human error

79:46

and they like to be able to relate and

79:48

to aspire. But as it relates to the

79:49

world of work, the incentive is

79:51

productivity. And my

79:53

my humanoid robot isn't going to get

79:55

sick, and it's going to have a PhD in

79:57

everything. So

79:59

I don't want to see a human failing at

80:01

their desk.

80:02

Right. Oh, right, right, right, right,

80:05

right, right. But then you you're your

80:08

robot and your AI is really focused on

80:12

the past, right? That's what it's

80:14

ingested, It can make predictions there

80:16

based on that past.

80:18

Pattern recognition.

80:19

how my brain works, right? Like a neural

80:21

network.

80:21

but

80:23

that's why we chose the word disruptive.

80:26

Disruptive means the traditional world

80:29

order and patterns therefore that

80:32

you know, the the robots and others will

80:34

recognize is going to change.

80:38

Right?

80:40

Sorry, what does that mean? Is it So,

80:42

what when we're doing our research we

80:45

have a white sheet of paper. There's no

80:47

history for this. Right? And so, we're

80:50

doing a lot of original research. So, AI

80:53

machines might use our research as that

80:55

cuz we put it out there. But it is

80:58

think differently to you to a human

81:00

though? In terms of is I thought the

81:01

human brain was building, you know,

81:03

predicting essentially something based

81:06

on lots of information. And AI is

81:08

basically doing the same thing with

81:10

neural networks. It's making a

81:11

prediction based on lots of new

81:12

information. And therefore, if we get to

81:14

AGI, it can create new information.

81:16

Yes. And and and it will. But I mean,

81:19

AGI Elon will say it's

81:22

two years away. And it does seem, you

81:25

know, we're able to generate PhDs and

81:29

rocket scientists now in the AI world.

81:32

So, he's probably right. But I also

81:35

think about this as giving us

81:37

superintelligence. So, could ChatGPT do

81:41

what we've done?

81:43

Maybe, I don't know. Actually, it's a

81:45

very interesting exercise. I'm going to

81:47

ask our team to do that before I put it

81:49

out. Uh to do to do a model, a SpaceX

81:53

model, financial model, income

81:55

statement, balance sheet, cash flow

81:58

statement between now and 2050 when we

82:01

have in 20 in the 2040s, Elon expects,

82:05

if not sooner, to colonize Mars. Uh I'll

82:10

see what kind of model it comes back

82:12

with. In terms of how much In terms of

82:14

how correct it is and what it uses to

82:17

get there.

82:19

Family man. Mhm. SpaceX.

82:22

A financial model.

82:24

Our income statement. Okay.

82:27

Income statement.

82:28

ask the really smart model, SD3.

82:31

Make a

82:33

SpaceX You're an investor in SpaceX?

82:35

Yes, in the private fund, yes. So am I.

82:38

Huh. Make a SpaceX

82:40

income statement.

82:47

Income statement based on Uh

82:50

Elon's predictions? Yes. Based on Elon's

82:52

predictions. Yeah.

82:54

This will be very interesting.

82:55

Now until 2050. Mhm.

82:59

Okay, I'll put that on the screen so

83:00

everybody can watch.

83:02

And this is essentially going to look at

83:03

everything he said about going to Mars

83:05

and colonizing Mars

83:07

and then tell you how valuable that

83:09

company's going to be Yes.

83:12

I'm not sure if you asked the question

83:13

that way. Did you

83:15

Did you say I just said make a SpaceX

83:17

income statement based on Elon's

83:18

predictions from now until 2050 and then

83:20

I can ask it what the market cap would

83:22

be.

83:22

I wonder how long it's going to think.

83:24

It's thinking for a while.

83:24

Yeah, it's going to think a long time, I

83:26

have a feeling. And then it's going to

83:28

take you through and I think uh you

83:31

know, it was interesting, DeepSeek

83:34

uh the breakthrough it had

83:36

on the reasoning side was it kept asking

83:39

questions so it could get to the right

83:41

answer faster. Mhm. I think they're all

83:44

adopting it now cuz cuz DeepSeek is open

83:46

source. Yeah. And they didn't need to

83:48

spend much as much money on the training

83:51

side because they

83:51

That's what they said. They said $6

83:53

million trained on a high-end

83:56

workstation and that that of course

83:58

caused a trillion dollars worth of

84:01

damage in the US market with Nvidia, one

84:05

of the biggest

84:06

casualties because people said, "Well,

84:09

wait a minute.

84:10

We're doing these data centers.

84:12

You mean we don't need all those big

84:15

data center servers to to do this work?

84:17

We could do a high-end workstation for

84:20

$6 million?" The answer is the

84:22

pre-training

84:24

for that model was done on a 50,000 GPU

84:29

cluster that the hedge fund had. Mhm.

84:32

And the last step of the large language

84:34

model was the $6 million step.

84:39

Okay, it's made its mind up now.

84:41

Oh.

84:42

So, it says Starlink revenue in 2050

84:46

would be 250 billion. Mhm. It says

84:49

launch and Starship revenue would be 120

84:52

billion. So, the total revenue would be

84:55

370 billion.

84:58

Cost of goods sold would be 172 billion.

85:00

Gross profit therefore would be 200

85:03

billion. Operating expenses 37 billion.

85:05

Operating income would be 161 billion.

85:08

After tax, so the net income would be

85:10

128

85:12

billion. All right.

85:15

And I have to I to to be honest, I

85:16

haven't seen the last stage of this

85:19

model. We haven't That'd be very

85:21

interesting. I'd love to get a a copy of

85:24

that if you could send it to me. Can you

85:25

Yeah.

85:25

100% I'll send it I'll email it to you

85:27

straight after. You know, when I asked

85:28

ChatGPT earlier, I said, "Who is the

85:30

number one woman in the world in

85:33

investing?" It repeatedly said your

85:34

name. Mhm. So, that's a pretty

85:37

remarkable thing to have accomplished,

85:40

especially in a male-dominated industry

85:43

where there isn't many women that manage

85:44

to rise to the top of that industry.

85:48

So, what what is it about you in

85:50

hindsight? You know, it's difficult to

85:52

be objective about oneself. But what is

85:54

it about you that meant that you were

85:56

successful in a male-dominated industry,

85:59

in an industry that's incredibly

86:00

difficult to be successful in?

86:02

My advice to all young people getting

86:05

into their first job especially, but

86:07

even later jobs, is

86:09

my mission when I started was to make my

86:13

boss look brilliant. Now, why do I why

86:17

do I say that? It's much more applicable

86:20

today and possible today than it was

86:23

back when there were no computers and no

86:25

cell phones, which is when I started,

86:27

right?

86:28

But what did I do? My boss wanted to

86:31

communicate, he was an economist, wanted

86:34

to communicate in charts that you know,

86:37

he couldn't find. So, I

86:40

figured out a way. I went to our

86:42

time-sharing system.

86:45

That's all you could do back then.

86:46

Time-sharing is an ancient mainframe

86:48

technology. And I figured out a way to

86:53

make these charts and delight him. And

86:58

and and I loved doing it and I loved

87:00

learning. I loved learning about

87:01

technology. I learned tech and about

87:04

economics through him. So,

87:06

that was the first thing. And then

87:09

Why is it important to make your boss

87:10

look good?

87:13

Well, I think because if you do make him

87:17

look good, um first of all, you should

87:21

you owe him a debt of

87:22

of gratitude if he turns around and

87:25

gives you more growth opportunities. So,

87:28

but if he or she doesn't, then you know

87:32

it's time to go to the next place where

87:34

you make that next boss look brilliant

87:36

and maybe you have the growth

87:37

trajectory. I had bosses who they they

87:41

loved the fact that I loved what I was

87:44

doing, that I had such high conviction

87:48

in what I was doing. And I I'm going to

87:50

give Art Laffer a lot of credit for

87:51

that. When I walked into the financial

87:55

world,

87:57

I knew more about economics than most of

87:59

the people in the room.

88:01

And that was a great source of

88:03

confidence, a great source of

88:05

confidence.

88:06

And when I was leaving that firm,

88:09

uh someone said my my boss at the time

88:11

said, I was moving from LA to New York.

88:15

My my boss said,

88:17

"You've only been doing this for 3

88:18

years. You're not ready to become their

88:20

economist." And

88:22

um

88:23

and I just thought I was ready. And more

88:25

important, the company to which I was

88:27

going thought I was ready. And as I was

88:30

leaving, um both he and and others said,

88:34

"Remember, you know more about economics

88:37

than anyone else in the room. You'll So,

88:40

take that with you." And I did. And I

88:42

think that sense of confidence

88:45

and understanding the way the world

88:47

works from a macroeconomic point of view

88:50

was critically important. Now, when I

88:52

got to New York,

88:53

I could not even speak Art Laffer

88:56

Laffer's name because the Laffer curve

88:58

says, "If you cut tax rates that are too

89:02

high, you will get more revenue."

89:05

And what had happened is Ronald Reagan

89:08

had cut tax rates.

89:10

But Paul Volcker at the Fed was trying

89:13

to starve the economy of inflation. So,

89:15

we were in back-to-back recessions and

89:18

no, the government wasn't getting more

89:19

revenue. So,

89:21

Art Laffer was, you know, on I couldn't

89:25

say anything, but you know, that was

89:27

fine. I knew he was going to be right

89:29

and we were right. That was the story of

89:31

the '80s and '90s. And that's why uh

89:35

Jennison Associates and the Chief

89:37

Investment Officer there, uh Sig

89:39

Segalas,

89:41

um gave me an opportunity to get into

89:43

equity research. I wanted to grow. I

89:45

loved the stock market and he loved my

89:49

conviction and so he started me on

89:52

cyclical companies, which of course I

89:54

would know a lot about. But,

89:57

Jennison was primarily a tech-oriented

90:00

firm and of course, knowing that, I

90:03

wanted to delight the boss. I wanted to

90:04

get into the technologies and I made it

90:07

my business to know as much about them

90:09

and and I was the only one willing to uh

90:15

research stocks outside the US. Think

90:18

about that now.

90:20

Art Laffer?

90:22

Arthur Laffer? Yes. He wrote this

90:24

letter.

90:25

Oh, he did? He wrote this letter.

90:27

Describing you. Oh, to you? To me. Oh.

90:32

He said there was this young lady named

90:34

Cathy Duddy, later Cathy Wood,

90:36

whose face was the map of Ireland and

90:38

whose ambition was over the moon. I was

90:39

a tough teacher and grader and Cathy's

90:42

first steps were shaky, but in short

90:43

order she rose to the occasion and aced

90:45

the course. Impressed as I was, and

90:48

believe me, I was very impressed, I

90:50

helped Cathy land her first job at

90:52

Capital Group in LA and from that point

90:54

in time it was game on. I followed her

90:56

career closely after Capital Group, then

90:58

on to Tupelo and her final job as an

91:00

employee at at at Alliance

91:03

Alliance Bernstein. As you may imagine,

91:06

she was the star investor at each stage.

91:09

In 2014, Cathy took a giant

91:10

entrepreneurial leap in the founding and

91:12

funding of ARK Invest.

91:15

And the letter goes on

91:16

to say she's a mega success and God

91:18

bless her. She never has forgotten her

91:21

now aged professor.

91:24

Well,

91:25

that was very nice of him. Um

91:29

uh

91:30

so, he he has been so important to my

91:33

career. Now, I'm going to get a little

91:35

weepy, but um

91:36

I gave him 1% of my company when I

91:39

started it.

91:40

And uh

91:42

so, he deserved it. He deserved it

91:45

because he gave me a big big break. He

91:47

believed in me first.

91:49

Why does that make you emotional?

91:51

I don't know. We have We've gone through

91:54

our life together and what's so

91:55

interesting now is

91:58

um

91:59

it's

92:00

so interesting and and fun is

92:04

Bitcoin has rejuvenated

92:07

Art. He's 85 years old or 84

92:11

and

92:12

I'm seeing his excitement and he wants

92:15

to spread the word around the world and

92:17

now we're going into stablecoins

92:19

together.

92:20

And

92:22

he just started an account on X. He has

92:26

a flip phone.

92:28

He doesn't do email and yet he has just

92:31

started an account on X and so we now

92:34

have this technology relationship

92:36

because he wasn't going to technology,

92:38

but he knows he's seen like

92:41

ARK altogether, we have 3.3 million

92:44

followers and he's seen the reach that X

92:48

has and he's also, I think the other

92:51

thing and I'm I'm haven't answered your

92:53

question. It was just very nice of him

92:55

to do that, you know, and I see it's a

92:58

typed one page and very sweet. We have a

93:01

closing tradition on this podcast where

93:02

the last guest leaves a question for the

93:03

next guest not knowing who they're

93:04

leaving it for. And the question left

93:05

for you is

93:07

Hm? Great question for you. What is the

93:09

craziest idea

93:12

you ever had that turned out to be

93:14

right?

93:17

Well, there are just a a few One thing

93:19

that it's it's not that crazy, but it

93:22

just gives you a sense of how

93:24

not obvious in the early days of ARK.

93:30

I remember saying

93:33

I remember saying

93:35

well, you know,

93:37

autonomous vehicles are robots.

93:41

And I was in a research meeting and

93:44

everyone said, "No, they're not."

93:47

And of course they are. You know, it's a

93:48

crazy idea, but and there was something

93:51

I mean there

93:51

some things I'll say

93:53

and the reason that's important from our

93:56

point of view is this convergence idea.

93:59

Robotics, AI, energy storage. So, wait a

94:03

minute, this is a very big idea. So, it

94:06

seemed it seemed like no, it's like I

94:09

think it is and and so it was like we

94:12

were we were, you know, feeling our way

94:14

in the dark cuz that was 2014 and

94:17

nobody was really talking about them.

94:20

And there's something like that very

94:21

recently. Oh, we were talking it's not a

94:24

crazy idea. It's it's just we're trying

94:25

to solve problems. Um

94:27

someone uh

94:29

when as we were going on and on at our

94:31

brainstorm on Friday about humanoid

94:33

robots, uh someone he he's he's our um

94:37

what do we call him? What do you call

94:39

curmudgeon? Uh no, good way. In a good

94:42

way.

94:42

I don't even know what curmudgeon means.

94:43

Curmudgeon means

94:45

contrarian

94:47

curmudgeon like

94:48

yeah, yeah, yeah, that's not going to

94:50

work, you know. Um

94:52

he humanoid robots. He said he said, "I

94:55

don't think that's going to be a thing."

94:57

He said, "We really need robots that are

95:01

going to be able to carry a lot more in

95:04

terms of weight than those things will

95:07

on those stilts." And in my mind kind of

95:10

flashed

95:12

um

95:13

transformer robots. They'd have legs and

95:16

all of that. You'd be able to fold them

95:18

up so they look like a tamp tank. Mhm.

95:21

And so that's what I said on uh I know

95:24

this doesn't sound so crazy to you, but

95:27

I don't

95:27

I'm just imagining the future, going to

95:29

Disneyland when I'm 11 years old. We had

95:32

just come over

95:33

uh from Ireland and seeing someone

95:36

holding a phone on the Carousel of

95:39

Progress and

95:40

you know, saying, "I'm going to have one

95:43

of those." Um it sounded crazy at the

95:45

time and I felt a little crazy, but

95:48

always So, you think we can have

95:50

transformer robots? Yeah. So, the robot

95:53

that cleans my house can transform and

95:55

maybe become

95:56

everybody laughed at me. But, I think

95:58

that's going to happen.

96:00

Another one was and this was on These

96:03

are just little ideas in in terms of how

96:05

things hit my brain, but

96:09

uh someone was talking about Boring,

96:11

which is another one of Elon's

96:13

companies, the underground

96:15

transportation. Big tunnels and stuff.

96:17

Yeah. I forget what someone said in

96:20

a post on X,

96:23

but I my answer was

96:26

Mars.

96:27

Obviously. And people were laughing at

96:30

that. And and then as they were talking

96:32

about it, they're saying, "Of course

96:34

they're going to put that transportation

96:36

system underground. We learned why you

96:38

shouldn't have it on top of the ground

96:41

from Earth." So, just a little things

96:44

catch me in a funny way. It's not the

96:45

craziest. They're just like, "Oh, maybe

96:47

that is the way things are going to

96:49

work." I wonder if if Elon dies before

96:51

we get to Mars or if he just dies in the

96:53

next 10 years from anything, from any

96:54

cause,

96:55

how much of an impact that will have on

96:57

our rate of progress

96:58

generally with space and electric

97:00

vehicles and humanoid robots? Could be

97:02

quite profound.

97:03

He is getting us so far along that, you

97:08

know, there's just going to be a runway

97:10

he's created for years and years. Think

97:12

about it, Mars 2040, 50,

97:15

you know.

97:17

Cathy, thank you. Thank you for doing

97:19

what you do and um

97:20

that's a a sort of multifaceted point of

97:23

gratitude because you do so much. Um you

97:25

do so much in educating all of us in

97:27

terms of innovation, investing and what

97:31

the future looks like, but also from

97:33

your funds perspective and your

97:34

company's perspective, you do so much in

97:36

open-sourcing and putting the research

97:38

and the work that you guys do out into

97:39

the world when you don't necessarily

97:40

have to. But, uh as I've heard you say,

97:42

it's a great benefit both to the world,

97:44

but also so you do it because it also

97:46

brings people to your fund, right? And

97:49

it certainly did for me. That's how I

97:50

came across you many, many years ago

97:51

when I had was reading some research

97:53

with my brother um around investing in

97:55

the future and innovation and

97:57

understanding your thesis around all of

97:58

those things, but also from the

98:00

education side, you're distilling this

98:02

complex research into simple um

98:05

language and information that the next

98:07

generation can understand so that this

98:09

moment of transition doesn't catch them

98:10

off guard and that's an incredible

98:11

thing. But I but I have to say as well,

98:14

you're such an inspiration for the very

98:15

fact that you have achieved what you've

98:17

achieved in your life. It's it's exceed

98:19

it's extremely rare for someone and I I

98:22

don't always like to talk about gender

98:23

or race or these those kinds of things,

98:25

but it's a point of it's a particular

98:26

point a pertinent point in this case

98:28

because you have succeeded in a very

98:31

male-dominated industry. And I think

98:33

just your presence, your existence alone

98:35

is going to inspire lots of women um and

98:37

men, people like me, um to pursue

98:41

finance and investing as a career. Oh.

98:43

So, thank you so much for doing what you

98:45

do and thank you for being who you are.

98:46

It's incredibly important and you've

98:47

demystified so many things for me over

98:49

the years even though we've never met um

98:51

but watching your videos and reading the

98:53

research that you guys put out. So, I'm

98:54

going to link all of that below. Link to

98:56

your websites and your funds and all

98:57

those things so people can learn more.

98:59

But yeah, thank you. Thank you, Steven.

99:01

Thank you for doing what you do and and

99:03

it's been an honor and a privilege and I

99:06

know you have an incredible audience.

99:08

So, you've built a fantastic business

99:10

here and I have a feeling uh

99:13

that this new world that that you're

99:15

fearing is going to be very good to you.

99:17

I hope so.

99:18

Yes. Thank you.

99:23

The hardest conversations are often the

99:25

ones we avoid. But what if you had the

99:27

right question to start them with? Every

99:29

single guest on the Diary of a CEO has

99:31

left behind a question in this diary.

99:34

And it's a question designed to

99:35

challenge, to connect, and to go deeper

99:37

with the next guest. And these are all

99:39

the questions that I have here in my

99:41

hand.

99:42

On one side you've got the question that

99:44

was asked, the name of the person who

99:46

wrote it, and on the other side, if you

99:47

scan that, you can watch the person who

99:50

came after who answered it. 51 questions

99:53

split across three different levels, the

99:55

warm-up level, the open-up level, and

99:57

the deep level. So you decide how deep

100:00

the conversation goes. And people play

100:01

these conversation cards in boardrooms

100:03

at work, in bedrooms alone at night, and

100:06

on first dates, and everywhere in

100:08

between. I'll put a link to the

100:10

conversation cards in the description

100:11

below, and you can get yours at the

100:13

diary.com.

100:15

This has always blown my mind a little

100:16

bit. 53% of you that listen to this show

100:19

regularly haven't yet subscribed to this

100:21

show. So could I ask you for a favor? If

100:23

you like this show and you like what we

100:24

do here and you want to support us, the

100:25

free simple way that you can do just

100:27

that is by hitting the subscribe button.

100:29

And my commitment to you is if you do

100:30

that, then I'll do everything in my

100:32

power, me and my team, to make sure that

100:34

this show is better for you every single

100:36

week. We'll listen to your feedback,

100:37

we'll find the guests that you want me

100:39

to speak to, and we'll continue to do

100:40

what we do. Thank you so much.

Interactive Summary

Cathie Wood, a prominent investor overseeing nearly $30 billion, discusses her investment philosophy centered on disruptive innovation, specifically AI, robotics, energy storage, blockchain, and multiomic sequencing. She highlights Tesla as a key AI project and explains why she believes these technologies will lead to unprecedented economic growth. The conversation covers her long-term bullish view on Bitcoin, the importance of original research, and the necessity of adapting to a rapidly changing technological landscape.

Suggested questions

3 ready-made prompts