What impact do you think the war in

Ukraine is going to have on the midterm

elections?

>> If there has been a series of failed

[music] Trump peace efforts or if there

has been some kind of Trump Russia,

[music] Trump Putin agreement to start

doing business over the heads of the

Ukrainians and the Europeans, [music] I

don't think Americans will find that

attractive. Americans still like to

think about [music] their country being

a good country. You know, we like to

think of ourselves being a positive

force in the world. I mean, but [music]

they don't like the idea that the main

motivation of the United States of

America [music] is the wealth of a few

people who are close to the president.

>> And you are one of our favorite guests.

I think this might be the third time.

Where does this podcast find you? I am

in the offices of the Atlantic Monthly

magazine in Washington DC, which is a

rare occasion actually.

>> The Atlantic Monthly in Washington DC.

Wow.

>> All right, let's bust right into it.

We're recording this in the middle of

what the New York Times called a week of

hasty diplomacy around the war in

Ukraine, leaked peace plans, private

negotiations, and a swirl of business

dealings. Putin is set to meet with US

Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.

And as we speak, no peace agreement has

been accepted or signed. And give us the

current state of play. What's actually

happening on the ground and in these

negotiations? So, the negotiations are

um a somewhat strange product of a

series of conversations that Steve Witco

and maybe others have been having with a

guy called Kirald Demetriv who's the

head of Russia's sovereign wealth fund

over the last several weeks and months

actually. uh and remembering that

neither Steve Whitoff nor Kuriel

Demitriov has as their main goal the

conclusion of the war and the

preservation of the sovereignty of

Ukraine and the defense of Europe and a

secure future for Europe and for

Ukraine. They seem to have as their main

goal the creation of a possible new set

of American and Russian business deals.

And we know this both because of

reporting really quite amazing reporting

in the Wall Street Journal uh as well as

a few months ago in the Financial Times.

Um, we know this because the original

version of a peace deal that they

presented had a whole long list of

plans, AmericanRussian plans, including

looking for minerals in the Arctic and

look, you know, oil and gas

infrastructure and um maybe the use of

some frozen Russian assets that are in

European banks by Americans to develop

Russia. So the that seems to be their

primary interest. Um and they came up

with this 28point peace plan that um was

completely unacceptable either to the

Ukrainians or to the Europeans. It was

somehow then modified um Secretary Rubio

got involved, modified, changed. There's

another version of it which we haven't

seen yet that Steve Wood is supposedly

taking to Moscow. I mean really as we're

speaking, as we're having this

conversation, he's there. What's

disturbing about this episode is that it

shows something very ugly about this

administration. Namely,

um, and it raises a question, you know,

in whose name are they conducting

American foreign policy? Is this for the

security and prosperity of America and

our allies? Or is this something that's

happening on behalf of companies, maybe

even some involving the family of Trump

or of Witoff, um, who are hoping to make

money out of this negotiation. And

that's that's where we are right now.

Um, and I think it's I I've talked to a

lot of people. I can't find an exact

precedent in American history before

where something this high stakes and at

this high level and involving the

security of so many millions of people

and so many other countries was being

conducted by essentially business people

whose main interest was business deals.

>> Isn't this a continuing pattern? We

monetize access to the White House.

We've monetized the pardon system. I

mean, isn't this a continuation of the

core brand association thus thus far?

And that is uh one of grift.

>> Yes. I mean, I suppose the the the shock

for the outside world, and as as you

know, I live part of the time in Europe.

I have a I have a Polish husband who's

involved in all this stuff as well. He's

the he's a Polish dipl Well, no, he's

the he's a he's the Polish foreign

minister. And I'm continually hearing

from not just Poles, but from British

friends, from German friends. I'm

continually hearing this kind of shock

and surprise that even this I mean I

guess everybody got used to the idea

that American politics are corrupt or

there are elements of corruption in our

system but that even at this level that

it would be that corrupt is remains

surprising to other people. Maybe it's

not really surprising to us anymore but

yeah I think you're it you know it is an

extension of of other decisions. I mean,

we're talking in a week when at the same

time, speaking of foreign policy, Trump

is also working himself up or maybe

members of his administration are

working themselves up to have some kind

of conflict with Venezuela on the

grounds that it's a narco terrorist

state. And at the meantime, exactly in

the same week, they've pardoned a former

president of Honduras who was in jail on

cocaine charges apparently because maybe

he has business dealings with some

people who are around Trump or close to

Trump. So, it's a you know, the it looks

more and more like the main motivations

for everything, you're right, not just

foreign policy, are to do with the

business interests of people in the

entourage.

>> Well, just along those lines, I'm I'm

curious. you validate or nullify the c

thesis. I think with somewhere between

if my son had committed a crime and was

in prison, I think with somewhere

between three and 10 million with my

connections, I could figure out a way to

get to the White House, communicate, I'm

going to make a seven or eight figure

donation to the East Wing renovation and

get my son out of prison. I I'm I

legitimately think I could accomplish

that right now. Your thoughts?

>> I I would be amazed if you couldn't do

it. I don't even know if you need

special connections. I mean, you know,

you need to make a donation to the east

wing or you need to buy into the

president's cryptocurrency fund. I mean,

there are lots of ways to do it and and

you can buy into the cryptocurrency fund

anonymously. You can do it, you know, as

a as an anonymous shell company. And so,

actually, nobody would have to know

except the people who who run that fund.

And they which by the way includes Zack

Witoff, who's Steve Witco's son. I'm not

even sure you have to be an insider. I

don't know if you have to be a MAGA

Republican. I don't think anything

ideological is required. I think it's

really just money.

Before [sighs]

we talk about the the piece you wrote

for the Atlantic around the peace plan

um I'm curious let's let's assume all

right we get to some sense of normaly

in your view give us a historical

context for whether if you do believe

that in fact real egregious crimes have

been committed here up and down the

stack from the secretary of war maybe a

war crime to outright grift and and and

um corruption that that makes us less

safe overseas that will take decades to

repair.

Historically, when a democracy like ours

faces this type of corruption or if you

believe that this in fact has been

wrongdoing, how does a democracy best

move past it? Is it to forgive it and

move on or is it to have something

resembling some sort of tribunal? I am

not sure because I don't know of an

exact historical parallel to what we are

living through. Um, very often when you

have this kind of corruption takeover

system, it results in some kind of

collapse or disaster or war. And it's

usually after the collapse or disaster

or war that you have the moment of

reckoning when people say that was too

much. we need to change our system. We

need to change our constitution.

You know, we need bigger, deeper changes

to prevent this from happening again.

And of course, I don't wish something

like that to happen. Um, and so I'm not,

you know, in the but in the absence of

it happening, I don't know how you reach

enough people, how you shake the

foundation of politics. I I I've just

been I've just started to read Jill

Leapor's new book, which is um it's

about the American Constitution. And one

of the points she makes is that often

our constitution has been amended at

least in the most serious ways after a

war. So firstly um after the revolution

and then after the civil war that's when

we got the the amendments that allowed

black people to vote and and change the

nature of American citizenship. Then

after World War I there were a number of

important amendments um women's suffrage

uh being one of them. And it's almost as

if you need some big moment of change to

convince people that, you know, that the

foundations of the system um are are are

rotten. Um and I I don't right now see

how we get to that and the scenarios

that would lead us to that aren't aren't

good. And so I don't wish for them. I

mean, one would really have to have a

the only other alternative I can think

of is that there needs to be just a lot

more awareness um among ordinary people

of how you know how bad it's gotten. I

you know I I know that a lot of for a

lot of Americans this doesn't feel like

something new. A lot of Americans,

partly because of the way they've been

reading and thinking and learning about

politics in the last several years,

think that Washington is corrupt anyway

and everything has always been corrupt

and this is exact, you know, it's just

an extension of past corruption and

explaining to them that this is

something qualitatively different that

this is a different kind of behavior.

Um, that American foreign policy has

never been for sale at this level with

these kinds of stakes before. I think,

you know, the best I can do is write

about it and talk about it. Um, and I

know you're doing that, too, in order to

convince enough people, you know, to to

to take this moment seriously and to and

have it change their their behavior,

make them vote, make them get involved

in politics, make them make them

participate because it's really without

that, it's hard to see. It's really hard

to see how you change. I mean,

interesting comparison. I haven't

written this yet, although I hope to do

it in the next few days. I talked this

morning to a senior figure who's

involved in a corruption investigation

inside Ukraine. And maybe you maybe

you've heard that there's a there's the

Ukrainian state is investigating itself,

which is actually at this point in

history hard to imagine in the United

States. Uh there's a there's an

anti-corruption bureau inside the

government and they are investigating

people some of whom are very close to

the president for a kind of kickback

scheme to do with the energy industry.

Um the details aren't that important.

What matters is that it's the Ukrainian

state that's doing it. It's as if our

FBI was investigating our president,

which right now is hard to imagine. You

you you can't imagine that happening.

And I asked the investigator, "How is it

that you have the legitimacy to do this?

how do you have the support to do it?

And he said, "Look, it comes from

Ukrainians." You know, the there was a

moment last summer when some people in

the presidential administration tried to

shut down this investigation. Uh and

there were popular protests. You know,

Ukrainians understand that this is an

important part of their democracy. They

want corruption ended. They think it's

important not just you not just for

moral reasons but because corruption

weakens them and makes them more

susceptible to Russian bribery and

blackmail and so on and you know and so

so so this is an this is a state body

that's acting with the support of

Ukrainians um and I don't know that we

have the equivalent movement here you

know is there a could you imagine big

national protests if well you mean you

can't imagine it because it's already

happened. I mean, if the president were

to replace the heads of the FBI and the

Department of Justice with flunkies who

would never investigate him, what would

happen? I mean, we know what would

happen. Nothing would happen because it

that's what that's what took place early

this year. And I just think Americans

have lost the um their, you know, the

the ability to be shocked or the ability

to absorb the ways in which this is

different. And so, as I say, all I can

think of to do [music] right now is to

explain it to people as much as

possible.

Support for today's show comes from

Apollo Global Management. What if we're

clinging to a status quo that no longer

exists? What if public markets [music]

no longer reflect the economy? What if

your portfolio has hundreds of public

holdings, but only one story? What if

growth lives where the index doesn't?

What if large scale projects outlast the

capital intended to fuel them? What if

private markets power over 80% of US

lending? What if a silver tsunami is no

longer on the horizon? It's here. What

if there's a hole in traditional

retirement plans? What if we've

constantly underestimated the impact of

change? What if the financial world

doesn't work the [music] way you think

it does? These aren't just

hypotheticals. In a world moving

forward, your thinking can't sit still.

[music] Reserve your first edition at

apollo.com/ask

ask [music]

whatif

support for the show comes from groons.

The holidays are a time to indulge, but

even if you're eating more than you

typically do, you might not be getting

the nutrients you actually need to end

the year on a high note. Grun may be

able to help you fill the nutritional

gap so you can enjoy it all guilt-free.

[music] Gruns is a convenient,

comprehensive formula packed into a

tasty little pack of gummies. This isn't

a multivitamin or greens gummy or

prebiotic. It's all of those things and

then some at a fraction of the price.

And bonus, it tastes great. Every Grun

snack pack is filled with 6 g of

prebiotic fiber, which is more than what

you get in two cups of broccoli. Plus,

Gruns are nut, gluten, and dairyfree

vegan. include no artificial flavors or

colors and are backed by over 35,000

research publications. Don't let the

holiday travel, hosting, parties, and

late nights set you back. Give yourself

a little extra support so you can enjoy

all the holidays magic. Get up to 52%

off with code props.co.

That's code propg.co.

[music]

Support for the show comes from him.

It's winter, which means it's much

easier to hide your hairline with that

wool cap you wear [music] day in day

out. But when the weather heats up,

you're going to have to address what's

going on underneath that hat. You

shouldn't have to rearrange your life to

deal with hair loss. Hims makes expert

care accessible on your schedule so you

can focus on feeling like yourself

again. Hims offers convenient access to

a range of prescription hair loss

treatments with ingredients that work,

including shoes, oral medications,

serums, and sprays. Plus, [music] HIMS

brings expert care straight to you with

100% online access to personalized

treatment plans that puts your goals

first. No hidden fees, no surprise cost,

[music] just real personalized care on

your schedule. For simple online access

to personalized and affordable care for

hair loss, ED, weight loss, and more.

Visit hms.com/propg. [music] That's

hs.com/propg

for your free online visit.

hymns.com/propg.

Individual results [music] may vary

based on studies of topical and oral

minoxidil and finestreed. Future

products includes compounded drug

[music] products which the FDA does not

approve or verify for safety,

effectiveness or quality. Prescription

required. See [music] website for full

details, restrictions and important

safety information.

you wrote for the Atlantic about this

peace plan uh which many are actually

calling a capitulation document. Uh can

you break down the quoteunquote peace

plan for us and what you think is the

likelihood that something that something

resembling this ends up getting more

traction than it has today?

>> The there are a couple central pieces of

it. I mean, I think the most

controversial piece is that the US is

promising to recognize

um all or most of I mean, there's

several there now several versions of

this kicking around. So, I'm I'm going

to be a little vague, but all are all or

some of Russia's um of the occupied

territories of Ukraine. So, that's

Crimea, that's eastern Ukraine, Donbas,

Luhinesk, and maybe some of the other

territories too. But more than that, it

it asks the Ukrainians to give up

territory that has not been conquered.

So this is a part of Donesk. Donetsk is

a province of Ukraine. The Russians have

conquered part of it. In fact, they

conquered a lot of it in 2014 when as a

part of a surprise attack right after

they um occupied Crimea. Um and they've

really been trying to conquer this whole

province since then. So 11 years. And

they haven't been able to do it. And

they're now losing, again, I spoke to

someone last night who reminded me of

these numbers. They're now losing 15 to

20,000 people a month trying to conquer

Donetsk. Um, and that's I guess that's

that's killed and wounded, but that's

still 15 to 20,000 soldiers being

knocked out every month in order to

conquer this piece of territory that

they can't conquer. And what they want

is they want the Trump administration to

intervene and give them this territory

for free. Um, and this this is not only

controversial because it rewards the

Russians for for nothing. Um, but also

it's probably politically impossible. I

don't think President Zilinski could

stay in office. He can't stay in office

and just turn over this piece of land.

Um, it's right now very heavily

fortified land. um it's not it's not

especially um you know populated

anymore. Most people have left that part

of Ukraine, but it's very heavily

fortified. And so the Ukrainians would

be giving up this fortified territory.

And that would allow the Russians then

to set up presumably to make another

attempt to conquer central Ukraine later

on. And that's what it looks like to the

Ukrainians, you know. So the Russians

haven't been able to win the war

militarily. Now they're trying to win it

through bribing the Americans, promising

things to the Americans, and then um you

know, getting the Americans to pressure

the Ukrainians to give up this territory

supposedly in the name of peace. So

that's probably the most controversial

piece of the um of of the deal. And that

seems to be something that Putin himself

thought up. And it's it's been kicking

around for a while. And in fact, when I

first saw this document, I didn't think

I didn't make that much of it because

it's been some of the points have been

around for a long time. And it was only

when you'll remember a couple weeks ago,

the president said the Ukrainians have

to sign this by Thanksgiving that

suddenly that this became salient and

relevant in in in new ways. And then

print, you know, then he dropped that

idea. Anyway, um so that that that was a

piece of it. um recognition not just de

facto but dur meaning formally

recognizing that the Russians now

control this Ukrainian territory which

also would be very unpopular in Ukraine.

There was a there was a line in it about

how about organizing Ukrainian elections

which if you think about it is a strange

thing to put into a peace plan. I mean

the Ukrainians organizing elections is

something they can do

on their own and um and and what about

the Russians organizing elections? The

Russians haven't had free elections for

20 years. So there you know it had that

element in it that the Russians were

somehow wanted to change the Ukrainian

leadership and maybe hoped to shape the

elections. That was the second piece of

the piece of the story. There was also

um Ukraine has to promise never ever

ever to join NATO and has to put that in

its constitution. Again, pretty

controversial. Don't know whether that

could be done. Uh and uh that that

Western powers, European powers would

promise never to put troops on Ukrainian

soil. And all this also creates another

problem which is if this war were to end

even right now, you know, if there were

to be a ceasefire on current lines,

which is something the Ukrainians have

accepted, in order for the peace to be

real, in order for it to last longer

than 6 months or a year or two years,

there has to be some reason for

Ukrainians to believe that the war isn't

going to just start up again next week.

So, there has to be a guarantee. There

have to be troops. There has to be NATO

or something like NATO. There has to be

something that will prevent Ukrainians

from fleeing the country once the once

the borders are opened. There has to be

something that gives people the belief

that they can invest in Ukraine, that

they can rec rebuild Ukraine. There has

to be something that makes it a viable

country. A lot of people often compare

Ukraine to South Korea, which is another

country that was divided and part of it

was occupied. And nevertheless, South

Korea remained a viable state and it

went on to become a very rich country,

very successful country, kind of

culturally successful in lots of ways.

And people have said maybe that's a

model for Ukraine. And that's it's true.

You could you could imagine that kind of

future except that you South Korea has

American troops. You know, South Korea

has um defense agreements. You know,

South South Korea is defensible and

Americans have been willing to defend it

for many decades or at least that's been

the that's been the assumption of the

North Koreans and you need something

like that in Ukraine to make it viable.

And it just doesn't seem like Witoff or

Jared Kushner or whoever is doing this

negotiation now has come up with a

version something that would that would

that would give the Ukrainians that

sense of stability. So this is why

people are talking about it as a kind of

surrender drug. I said we give away land

and in exchange for what? For you know

certainty that the Russians are going to

invade again. The problem with this

document then as I've already said there

are all these weird clauses about

US-Russian deals that are going to be

done and money that the US is supposedly

going to spend in Russia and it looks

from the outside like it's a USRussia

deal that just isn't worried about the

future of Ukraine or the future of

Europe because you know a fallen Ukraine

or a or a dysfunctional Ukraine has huge

impact on security in Poland in Germany

all across the European continent and it

just feels feels like the Trump

administration doesn't care.

>> So, you spent a lot of time in Europe.

Your husband is a senior official in the

Polish government. What is the vibe, for

lack of a better term, in Europe and

especially in the nation's border in

Ukraine around the war right now? Is it

stay the course? This is an unacceptable

cost for Russia and Russians and

eventually they will retreat.

or is it we're facing an inevitable end

which isn't which isn't a a good

[clears throat] one? Like what I like

what Lincoln said, you can't win a war

without public support. You can't lose

one with it. Where what is the state of

public support across Ukraine, Eastern

Europe, and Europe more broadly as it

relates to this war.

>> So the Ukrainians are genuinely prepared

to keep fighting. Um their losses are

far lower than the Russian losses. um

they know that they need outside support

and most of the nations of Europe,

certainly those closest to Ukraine,

Scandinavia, um the Eastern Europe,

um uh Germany as well, have, you know,

are continually stepping up, offering

not just weapons, but money. Remember,

the Ukraine has its own defense

industry. It makes its own drones now,

including these long range drones that

hit that can hit Russian targets and

Russian refineries and so on. Um, and we

I was there in September and at that

moment there was still a lot of

confidence. You know, they were pretty

sure they were going to make it through

the winter. They didn't expect the

Russians to stop fighting anytime soon.

I mean, there's been a little bit of um

the the the the huge pressure from

Russian air strikes in the last month or

two, I think, has been um um this and

this is on Ukrainian cities. This is

nothing to do with the front line. This

is people, you know, bombs hitting Kiev,

missiles hitting residential apartment

buildings and so on. I think that's been

um that's been pretty debilitating. But

they don't, you know, you have to

remember that if you're Ukrainian, you

don't really see an option. you know,

your option is you keep fighting the war

or you let the Russian win and then they

destroy you and your family and they

wreck your country anyway, you know. So,

it's not like they have this great

choice, you know, and it's not like if

the war ends then that everything will

be fine. Uh, and I think that for the

most part, I mean, there are variations

inside each country. I think most of the

countries around Ukraine feel the same

way. you know, for Poland, you know, or

for the Baltic states, you know, for

Romania. I mean, if if if Ukraine were

to lose, that wouldn't mean, oh, okay,

the war is over now and we can get on

and do other things. No, that would mean

it would be more expensive and they'd

have to spend more money on defense and

there would be more panic about where

the Russians would go next and there

would be more chaos from Ukrainian

refugees and more economic disruption.

So, so the so the the prospect of a

Russian victory doesn't make anybody

feel like that would be an improvement.

And so they too have this feeling that

there's no choice, you know, so that the

that they will keep fighting um until

they until some some better solution is

is reached. Um and I should say there's

another weird thing about this whole

USRussia negotiation, which is that it

seems to they seem to be acting as if

the Ukrainians and the Europeans have no

agency. I mean actually the Europeans

are now paying for the war. You know

there is almost no US supplies going in.

Um they're paying for the war. They are

supporting Ukraine economically.

You know so actually even if the US did

bow out they could keep going. I mean

and the and acting like this negotiation

is some kind of US-Russian agreement

that doesn't involve the people who are

actually doing the fighting and who are

paying for the fighting is also very

weird. I mean, it's just it's just not

how you do diplomacy. It's not going to

get you to an, you know, it's not going

to get you to an agreement that that

that makes sense. Um, and that that's

again why I question the motives of of

the people who are involved.

>> Isn't that sort of the silver lining

here? And that is

the US has somewhat abdicated,

withdrawn, gone awall, whatever you want

to call it. And my understanding is that

uh we are still supplying weapons but

we're forcing the Europeans to pay for

them.

>> Not in not in huge numbers and and the

weapons that we're supplying the thing

that we have that other people don't

have is air defense. And so it's mostly

that but most of the most of the other

weapons are coming from Europe or

they're being made in Ukraine. But isn't

back to the notion of silver line isn't

to be fair and I feel like Europe is

always is every headline on a on a broad

basis about Europe as a whole is a

pretty negative one about a lack of

growth. It's becoming a museum. There's

a lack of leadership.

Hasn't Europe really stepped up here and

filled this void and is in fact pushing

back?

>> Yeah. I mean, not not only are they

pushing back and not only are they have

they stepped up often in ways that

aren't attracting attention, you know,

there's a lot of Danish help for Ukraine

and the Norwegians have been really

important. There's a lot of smaller

countries have played an important role.

Um but you've also had I think

especially since the US election last

year I think there's been a real

transformation in European understanding

you know so the you know of course

everybody's natural instinct is to say

you know the war is far away it doesn't

touch us you know and everybody prefers

the status safe status quo to to

involvement in some kind of unknown

project and I think you are finally

beginning to see especially in Germany,

which is important because it's the

largest European country, biggest

economy. Um, you're you're seeing a real

transformation like, okay, we get it.

You know, that the the the post 1989 era

is over and the automatic assumption

that the US will see the world the same

way we do and shares our values is also

over. And maybe we'll work with the

Americans again in some way. I mean,

nobody's writing them off altogether,

but we're in a different era. And you

can see that beginning to affect

European politics in a lot of ways,

especially in Germany, but but also in

other places, and you see investments

going into the defense industry, new

thinking about strategy, new kinds of

relationships. I mean, a lot of things

are changing. It's not it's not ideal,

mostly because Europe is not a

federation. I mean it's funny for all

the kind of euroskeepics about you know

overbearing Europe and how it's

supposedly you know they're creating a

single state and so on actually it's not

a single state and that's the problem

you know so it's very hard it's still

hard for Europe to act as one and that's

why you have this formula the coalition

of the willing you know you have this

group of countries who are working

together you the ones who and the ones

who care the most are involved the most

uh and that coalition of the willing is

the is the group that's supporting

Ukraine. Um but no, there's there's been

a big change in Europe and European

strategic thinking and in European

understanding of the world. And you

know, I think the um you know, the the

big the big realization that Europe has

made a huge mistake in allowing the US

to dominate the new technology, defense

technology, but also the internet, AI. I

think that's it's it's sunk in. I mean,

everybody gets it that that was a a

disastrous, you know, European failure.

Um, whether there's time to catch up, I

don't know, but you you certainly have

now the formation of new companies and

new thinking. I mean, I know you're

you're interested in that. Um, that

that's that's begun. And, you know, it's

interesting to see the connection

between this geopolitical shift, which

is happening kind of in the ether, and

people saying, "Right, okay, we need we

need our own stuff." And that's that's

happening now. If you have an absence of

US funding, uh limited limited cash of

weapons from the US going to Ukraine and

it's Ukrainians fighting on the ground

doing the fighting in combat and you

have Europe is responsible for the

majority of the funding or the

intelligence

when what feels like a peace plan

architected by Russia and the US. I mean

is quite frankly can Ukraine and Europe

and maybe have done this kind of say

hold my beer and and to a certain extent

haven't has hasn't the US I mean okay

we've walked away from our

responsibilities but haven't we walked

away from all leverage here and it quite

frankly it doesn't really matter what we

think

>> we I mean there to some extent that's

true I mean I think that the I think

people are still hoping the US will have

some influence there's a lot of you know

maybe

you know, maybe false hope. Um, I think

there's, you know, there's a fear that a

USRussia condominium, you know, kind of

USRussia deal would be bad for everybody

and we'd like to avoid it. So, I didn't

think people want some kind of huge

break with the United States. Um, but

yeah, I mean, the the United States is

not going to be able to dictate what

happens in Ukraine, and they certainly

won't be able to dictate a bad solution.

And by bad solution, remember it's what

a bad solution means that Ukraine is so

badly weakened that Russia can invade

again. That's like that's the bad

solution. Um, and I don't think the US

is going to be able to dictate that even

if that's what they're, you know, even

if that's what they want. So, no, the US

doesn't has fewer and fewer cards and is

going to have less and less influence as

time goes on. I think that's true.

Support for the show comes from Avant.

Startups move fast and with AI, they're

shipping even faster and attracting

enterprise buyers sooner. But big deals

bring even bigger security and

compliance requirements. A sock 2 isn't

always enough. The right kind of

security can make a deal or break it.

But most founders and engineers can't

afford to take time away from building

their company to focus on that. That's

where Vanta comes in. Vanta's AI and

automation make it easy for your company

to get big deal ready [music] in days.

And Vant says they continuously monitor

your compliance so future deals are

never blocked. [music] Plus, Vant scales

with you, backed by support that's there

when you need it, every step of the way.

[music] With AI changing regulations and

buyers expectations, Vant knows what's

needed and when. And they built the

fastest, easiest path to get you there.

That's why serious startups get secure

early with Vanta. Get started at

vanta.com/profg.

That's venta.com/propg.

vanta.com/profg.

[music]

Support for this show comes from

LinkedIn. If you've ever hired for your

small business, you know how important

it is to find the right person. That's

why LinkedIn Jobs is stepping things up

with their new AI assistant, so you can

feel confident you're finding top talent

that you can't find anywhere else. And

those great candidates you're looking

for are already on LinkedIn. In fact,

according to their data, employees hired

through LinkedIn are 30% more likely to

stick around for [music] at least a year

compared to those hired through the

leading competitor. That's a big deal

when every hire counts. [music] With

LinkedIn Jobs AI assistant, you can skip

confusing steps and recruiting jargon.

It [music] filters through applicants

based on criteria you've set for your

role and surfaces only the best matches

so you're not stuck sorting through a

mountain of résumés. LinkedIn Jobs AI

assistant can even suggest 25 great

[music] fit candidates daily so you can

invite them to apply and keep things

moving. Hire right the first time.

[music] Post your job for free at

linkedin.com/prof.

Then promote it to use LinkedIn jobs new

AI assistant, making it easier and

faster to find top candidates. That's

linkedin.com/prof

to post your job [music] for free. Terms

and conditions apply.

Support for the show comes from Shopify.

If you run a small business, you know

there's nothing small about it. As a

business owner myself, I get it. Every

day there's a new decision to make and

even the smallest decisions can feel

massive. What can help the most is a

platform with all the tools you need to

be successful. A platform like Shopify.

Shopify is the commerce platform behind

millions of businesses around the world

and 10% of all e-commerce in the US.

[music] From household names including

Mattel and Gym Shark to those brands

just getting started. That's why they've

developed an array of tools to help make

running your small business easier.

Their point of sale system is a unified

command center for your retail business.

It gives your staff the tools they need

to close the sale every time, and it

lets your customers shop however they

want, whether that's online, in store,

or a combination of the two. Shopify's

firstparty data tools give you insights

that you can use to [music] keep your

marketing sharp and give your customers

personalized experiences. And at the end

of the day, that's the goal of any small

business owner, keeping your customers

happy. Get all the big stuff for your

small business right with Shopify. Sign

up for your $1 per month trial and start

[music] selling today at

shopify.com/propg.

Go to shopify.com/propg.

shopify.com/propg. [music]

You have I love this a kleptocracy

tracker on your substack. What's the

most boring shift you're seeing right

now? What is this metric unearthed?

>> Right. So the kleptocracy tracker is

something I started in this is regarding

our previous conversation. I started a

few months ago um just as because I felt

like there were all these news stories

that flashed by you know people being

pardoned after making donations to the

president's cryptocurrency fund or um

you know or or regulation being lifted

or regulation not being enforced and I

just felt like someone should keep track

of it somewhere and so I started doing

it and it actually appears on a John's

Hopkins website as well. The Agora

Institute also publishes um they even

created a little graphic so you can

track it and click on it. I mean I don't

know you know h how many people look at

it or use it but I'm hoping like at

least historians of the future will be

able to say that somebody was paying

attention. Um and I you know there

really two or three important shifts. I

mean, one of them is this one that

doesn't get attention I just mentioned,

which is it's not just that the Trump

administration is making money for

itself or it's, you know, Trump

companies are benefiting from deals with

the Saudis or investments in Vietnam.

It's also that the this administration

is either refusing to enforce laws made

in the past or is actively preventing

new laws from being made. So, so, so

laws designed to prevent for, you know,

the the foreign corrupt practices act,

for example, or laws designed to

regulate the cryptocurrency industry so

that ordinary people wouldn't be ripped

off. You know, all kinds of regulation

that's designed, mostly designed to

benefit ordinary Americans and make sure

that our system isn't corrupt and that

people aren't ripped off by by US or

foreign companies. A lot of that is just

being taken away. you know, they're just

not enforcing it. They don't care

anymore. And of course, the bad actors

know that. And so, when they see the

legal system being taken apart and they

they know it's a free-for-all, they can

they can just remove money from people's

cryptocurrency wallets, which happens um

more often than you think. Uh you know,

or or um you know, or they can violate

the law or they can you know, they can

do as they please because they know that

nobody's watching them. Um, and I think

that's and that doesn't get a lot of

attention because it's not, you know,

it's not very exciting news to say that

the Trump administration has decided it

won't enforce X or Y law, but that's

going to create the long-term problems.

You know, if we create this atmosphere

of lawlessness where, you know, you can

buy a pardon from the president if

you've broken the law, you can assume

that nobody will enforce regulation if

you decide to break it. um you can rip

people off and you won't pay any price.

You can do all these things with

impunity. I mean that begins to create a

kind of business culture that is

ultimately bad for everyone. I mean I

guess you know bad guys will benefit

from it. But if you've ever lived or

worked in a really corrupt country, and

I I have um um you know I I I spent a

lot of time in Russia in the 1990s. Um I

spent a lot of time in Ukraine actually

in the era before it began to reform

itself. Um and I mean maybe particularly

for ordinary people you know daily life

is different in a really really corrupt

country. You know you you don't make um

business investments in a normal way.

You can't make judgments about how to

work or where to work unless you know,

you know, who's really in charge or

who's the person behind each one of

these companies. Um, you know, it it it

distorts ordinary life and ordinary

decision-m. Um, you know, in in you

know, in Russia, universities became

very corrupt. Um, the state services

became very corrupt. I mean, if you

wanted a driver's license or any kind of

license, you could pay for it. And

people people knew that. and then that

has a corresponding effect on safety and

so on. So, you know, so it you you can

get into this very ugly downward drift

if you don't stop it soon. And as I

said, I mean, the main problem in the

United States is just the lack of

awareness. I mean, we're so used to our

system running on autopilot, you know,

assuming that people more or less most

people obey the law and more or less,

you know, things work. And once that

once the a kind of critical mass is

reached and that's no longer true, then

it's going to be very hard to fix.

>> What impact do you think the war in

Ukraine let's assume that it in

say 9 10 months it's

loosely in the same place it is now.

Right. I wouldn't describe it at a

standstill. I would describe the war

rages on. What impact do you think it's

going to have on the midterm elections?

I mean that's an interesting point. I it

depends what

what it looks like. Um you know if it

looks like exactly like it does now you

know maybe there wouldn't be an impact.

But if there has been a series of failed

Trump peace efforts that were

transparently

grifting that they weren't really about

peace

or if there has been some kind of Trump

Russia Trump Putin agreement to start

doing business over the heads of the

Ukrainians and the Europeans I don't

think Americans will find that

attractive and maybe I'm wrong maybe

won't care you know foreign policy is

far away. Um, Ukraine is pretty remote

to a lot of people. Um, but I still

think and and this is something I know

because I've seen surveys about this,

Americans still like to think about

their country being a good country.

>> You know, we like to think of ourselves

being a positive force in the world. I

mean,

>> reasonable people can disagree about

what that means, you know, and and um

maybe not everyone's definition of good

is the same, but they don't like the

idea that the main, you know, in the big

issues and in the big arenas that the

main motivation of the United States of

America is the wealth of a few people

who are close to the president. I

[snorts] just don't think Americans are

going to like that. And I I don't know

that it would be the main issue in the

midterms, but I think it would be

something that would certainly affect

people's perception of Trump and maybe

of the Republican party.

>> It's it's strange. It feels as if, and I

don't know if this is Trump or more

specifically the cloud cover for this

being the idolatry or the increasing

idolatry of the dollar in the United

States, but it feels as if diplomacy

itself is being replaced by private

capital networks, sovereign funds,

energy deals, rare earth investments,

data centers, and that the reporting

shows that billionaires operating

outside of the traditional lines of

diplomacy, whether it's WhitF or Kushner

on the US side,

uh uh Kel Deitriv on the Russian side

hammering out drafts in Miami and

shuttling between Mara Lago and Moscow.

A what do you think of this and I think

I know the answer to this. What do you

think of this business versus diplomacy?

And are there any analoges for when

other nations basically diplomacy gets

co-opted by what I'll call these private

capital billionaire networks? That that

is literally the Russ that is exactly

the Russian system. I mean the Russian

system is that you have companies like

Gasprom which are nominally private but

which are really owned by people who

also run the country. Um and they use

you know their Russian foreign policy

has been uh kind of commercial and

diplomatic and political all mixed up

for a long time. And the purpose of a

gasprom investment in a foreign country

would be partly to make money for the

people who run gasprom and partly it

would be to achieve some goal you know

for the Russian state and you know and

and particularly in oil and gas but not

only you know Russian companies have

there have been inseparable from the

state for a long time and it's created

you know this ugly system where all of

government and all of foreign policy is

really just designed to benefit benefit

this kind of ownership class. Um, and we

are really very much at risk of that in

America. That every you know that

government isn't for everybody. It's not

for to make all of us rich and

prosperous. It's not to project a set of

American values into the world, which

has been true at least some of the time

of American foreign policy, certainly

since the Second World War, but you

could argue further back than that. Um,

and instead of being this, you know, the

kind of outward representation of us and

our values and our, you know, our desire

for prosperity and a good life, it's

actually just designed for those people.

And that's really how the, you know, I

mean, Russia is maybe the most prominent

example of this, but you can look at

other autocratic states and say the same

thing about them. I mean, this is the

argument of the my recent book was

Autocracy Inc. is that it's a mistake to

look at um the the world's autocrats

even when they have different

ideologies. You know, Russia and China

and Iran and North Korea, Venezuela and

Azarbaijan, you know, they have very

different ideologies, but they all often

work in some of the same ways. And one

of the ways that one of the things they

have in common is this kleptocratic

model. you know that the rulers of the

country are also the owners of the

biggest businesses and they use their

business relations with one another to

make money for themselves. uh and they

hide money in the same ways. They hide

money in the Caribbean or in um or

indeed in Delaware and they um and they

move money around the world anonymously

and they share ways of doing that and

that's part of what keeps them all in

power and it it looks and you know the

Trump administration is still not free

to behave in that way. you know, we

still live in a democracy and we still

have um you know, we still I hope we'll

have congressional investigations and we

have courts and so on, but they they

seem to be pushing the country in that

direction. And clearly there are very

wealthy people in the tech world and in

the crypto world and in other industries

who want the US to develop very much in

that direction. kind of um a state where

political power and economic power are

the same thing and you know the

politicians own the companies and and

they act in their interests not our

interests. Uh so I love uh books about

war and movies and one of the things I

think I've sused out from them is that

wars don't change history they sort of

accelerate it and that is they take

existing trends and massively impul

forward if you will and countries on the

ascent come out big winners and

countries you know arguably Britain's

finest moment was World War II but it

essentially accelerated the decline of

the empire right they could no longer

hold on to their empire if you will

within Europe. Who do you see as a if

there's a reshuffleling here and a

dramatic

increase or decrease in power? And I'll

put forward a thesis. My sense is this

is a really big moment for Poland, but

A, do you agree with that? And B, who do

you see as the biggest winners and

losers across Europe? Yeah, I think

Poland is

um Poland sees itself very much as being

a country that will play a role in

deciding what happens next in Ukraine um

and will play an increasingly

influential role in helping other

European countries shape their security

decisions. I mean there's some

interesting there's there's a very close

Polish Swedish relationship. The Polo

just bought some submarines from Sweden.

um you see this kind of scan these kind

of countries around the Baltic becoming

um working together in lots of ways and

actually often including the UK. So you

kind of UK, Scandinavia,

Baltic, Poland alliance which is

emerging as a really important alliance

of countries just because they share

values and they they have a similar view

of the world and they work together in

new ways and you're seeing that

emerging. I mean there's also a Polish

German relationship that's really

important. Um, actually the Polish

government, I'm I'm not sure they're

still there today, but as we're

speaking, they they were there

yesterday. Several senior Polish

ministers, including the prime minister,

were all in Germany. You know, there was

a kind of big, you know, multi-levelled,

multi-layered um conference was held in

which they they they you know, there's

still endless historical issues to work

out, but in which they're looking at

ways of working together economically

and in security. I mean you you can see

those kinds of links developing and

becoming more important. You know it's

almost as if in the past a lot of stuff

went kind of through NATO like through

America. You know there was a Polish

America German link and now everybody's

looking around and saying wait you know

is is is going through America or

through NATO is that safe? you know, we

need to we need to have much stronger

countryto country links that don't

depend on the you know, some assumption

of of of permanence permanent American

presence in Europe. So yeah, I think

Poland Poland is also a country that is

doing well economically and it looked at

over the span of 30 years has been doing

well the whole time. I mean, it's it's

it's it caught up to Western Europe.

>> You know, it's not exact it's not it's

still not as rich as Germany, but I if I

recall this, you'd have to I'd have to

check. I think it's richer than Greece

per capita, and I think it's richer than

Portugal per capita. Um, and so if

you're looking at Western European

countries, so it's it's caught up to

Western Europe faster than it has ever

before at any time in history. and and

and and continues to develop and grow in

a [clears throat] way that um you would

not have guessed or imagined a couple of

decades ago. So yeah, I think I think

Poland up Germany changing. Um I mean

the UK is the country that worries me

the most. Just because I think the

damage done by Brexit is still working

its way through the system. Doesn't mean

there aren't brilliant people there and

great companies and and all that. Um,

but I it's it's it's it lost so many

markets and so many opportunities

through that one stupid decision um that

I I worry it's falling further behind

and I I don't want that because I'm a I

lived in London for a long time. I'm I'm

a I'm I'm a I'm a fan of British culture

and many other things. But that's that's

what it there's it's interesting there's

often a lot of in the UK now there's

almost a kind of they keep writing

articles in the British press about how

great Poland is and you know what if

Poland catches up to Britain. I mean

it's almost there's a kind of cultural

snobbery there like it can't possibly be

the case that polls are rich [laughter]

as we are. [snorts] Um but but there is

something happening whereby they are

they're coming certainly they're a lot

closer in terms of of GDP per capita

anyway than they were ever before.

>> Do you have a sense for

having spent time in Russia and I

imagine still having contacts there. How

do Russians feel about the state of the

war and the relationship with the US and

China? What what's the vibe again I hate

to use that word in Russia right now

with respect to the war?

>> It's really hard to say. So, first of

all, my I had a lot of Russian friends

at one point and they are all gone. They

have all left Russia. They're in

elsewhere in Europe. Some are in the US.

Um, and so I don't have, you know, I

don't have friends inside Russia

anymore. At least none none that I would

be able to talk to. It's also,

you know, genuinely impossible to

measure something called public opinion

in Russia because this is a country in

which to be against the war is illegal

and people are arrested for saying

things that are against the war. And so

that means that if you know if you're

conducting an opinion poll and you call

someone up and you say, "How do you feel

about the war?" What are they going to

tell you? They're going to say, "I'm all

for it." you know, it's a it's not a um

it's not something that you can measure

and and there isn't also a kind of

public sphere in which these things are

discussed. It's not like there's a place

where people talk about the war and

debate its whether it's good or bad in

any real way. So, you know, so what are

people's opinions is it almost doesn't

matter because they won't tell you what

their opinions are um because they keep

them to themselves. I mean, I do have um

there's a part of the Russian opposition

that measures kind of sentiment on the

internet. They use those kinds of

metrics and they say that um exhaustion

with the war and disappointment with the

war are pretty widespread.

And another metric you could look at is

the number of Russian elite people in

the Russian elite who have fallen out of

windows or have succumbed to mysterious

accidents in the last couple years. And

almost all of those are probably people

who in some way were seen as

insufficiently enthusiastic about the

war or about Putin. So, it's it's pretty

clear there's um you know, if Putin were

to say tomorrow the war is over and now

we can move on. I think people would be

happy. Um they would probably be very

happy to um end this, you know, terrible

number of deaths. I mean, imagine United

States, imagine 20,000 people a month

dying or being or being mortally injured

and how that would affect us and how we

would be

>> we wouldn't do it. I mean, isn't that

unthinkable.

>> Isn't that quite frankly Russia's core

competence is willing to endure more

suffering far more than Europe or the

US. There's no way we would do this. No

way we would let a million Americans be

injured or killed. We would have we

would have found a reason to, you know,

get a helicopter on the embassy and get

the hell out, you know, a year and a

half ago. And I think we consistently

underestimate the Russians willingness

to subject their citizenry to pain.

>> Yeah, I think we do. I don't think the

Ukrainians underestimate them. I mean,

my last a lot of recent conversations

I've had in Ukraine have been with

people who say, "Right, we get it. The

Russians don't care how many people we

kill. I mean, we're going to go on

killing them because that's how we keep

our country sovereign." Um, but they

shifted strategy some months ago and

they began really focusing on hitting

Russian oil export and oil refining

facilities. And they do that because

they say, "Okay, they don't care about

people, but they care about money and

they care about wealth." And so we're

going to try to hit them in the places

where they're making the most money. And

actually just in the last couple days

they've started hitting tankers. Um so

far it's empty tankers just in case

you're worried about oil spills. Um they

hit a couple of tankers that were going

into a port oil tankers. I think they

were under a Gambian flag, but we all

understand that this is called the

Shadow Fleet. We understand that they're

they're Russian or they're carrying Russ

they're going to be carrying Russian

oil. Um, and they also have had this

campaign to hit Russian refineries and

they've hit some several dozen of them

and they do it repeatedly and they do it

almost every night. Um, I was in a I was

in a Ukrainian long-range drone factory

in September and they showed me these

drones. They were they were like little

airplanes. They're they're large. These

aren't little drones. These are huge

drones. And I said, "How many do you

make?" And they now make a hundred a

day. These are very sophisticated little

planes. And how many do you launch every

day? and they say we launch 100 a day.

They have this permanent now campaign of

hitting Russian oil and gas

infrastructure all the time. And this is

when they describe it to me, they say

this is the real sanctions. The

sanctions that the US and Europe do are

now full of holes. The US isn't really

enforcing them anymore. Um it's too easy

for everybody else to buy oil and gas

from Russia. And so we're going to make

it more difficult. And that's now a

really important and very under

reportported for reasons that I don't

really understand, but a very

underreported part of how Ukraine is

fighting as well. Um, so they they

understand that we they you know,

killing people won't win the war, but

maybe doing enough damage to

infrastructure could. And their theory

of victory now involves that, you know,

we do enough damage um that they at

least have to stop fighting. Um, and

that's, you know, but but you're right.

I mean, killing a million people, so

what?

>> So, in our remaining 3 minutes here, and

you've been generous with your time, I

want to move to something much lighter.

You said that you had lived in Russia. I

know you've lived in the US. What other

nations have you lived in, Ann?

>> Uh, I lived in London.

I lived um I lived in Poland. I live in

Poland, actually. I live I spent about

half my time in Poland.

>> Warsaw or

>> uh I live in Warsaw. And then we have a

house in northwest Poland as well in the

country. We renovated old house. Um I

haven't really lived anywhere else but I

spent a lot of time flying around and

staying in other places. Um spent a lot

of time in Ukraine.

>> So stack rank, you're 25, you're

thinking you have some skills, a lot of

geographic mobility. stack rank the best

the upside and the downside of living in

all those nations for a young

professional.

>> Well, Russia's out.

>> You don't want don't want to be

kidnapped. Um, honestly, if I had the

right kind of skills, and I don't um but

maybe a young person would, I would be

trying to work in the Ukrainian drone

industry.

>> That's

>> It really feels like that could be the

fuel that rebuilds that economy.

>> It will. I mean, once the fighting

stops, they're they're now so far ahead

of everybody else. Everybody's going

there to learn how they're doing it.

>> Um, including Americans and including

the British and including the Poles,

obviously.

>> Uh, I would do that, you know. I So,

actually, the country where I see the

most innovation and where things are

really exciting is there. I mean,

obviously, you know, you have to be

pretty tolerant of of loud noises at

night and so on, but um but but I would

do that. And then you know I yeah I mean

Poland um Poland once you overcome

whatever cultural differences there are

and there are some um it's still a

country where there are all kinds of

wide open spaces you know there are kind

of things that haven't been done and

companies that haven't been created and

I I would think that um that would be a

great place to live and I don't know I

mean for me the London is still the

greatest city in the world and I'd be

happy to I'd be happy to be transplanted

there again any time. So

>> that's a that's a nice note to end on

that wouldn't it be nice if when this

war is over the Ukraine becomes a magnet

for human capital and potential and

optimism and economic growth. I like the

I like the thought of that. Ann

Applebomb is a Pulitzer Prizewinning

historian and staff writer at the

Atlantic. She's also a senior fellow at

Johns Hopkins. Her books include Gulog a

history red famine Stalin's war in

Ukraine and her latest autocracy. and

she joins us from uh the Atlantic office

uh in Washington DC. Ann, we absolutely

love having you on. We have [music]

um our listeners are generally um kind

of younger and uh more male and I I I

just love that we introduce them to

historians and really thoughtful people

that they may not come in contact with

across their other channels. So very

much appreciate uh your time [music] and

and how in demand you must be right now.

Thanks very much, An.

>> Thanks. It's always a real pleasure to

talk to you. Thank you. [music]