[music]

>> Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts,

radio, news.

>> Primary season in the US is underway

[music]

with 5 months of intense campaigning to

go till the midterms.

>> Maine is pretty much a must-win for

Democrats if they're going to have any

chance at all of taking the Senate.

>> Tomorrow, Maine voters will cast their

ballots in the Democratic Senate primary

[music]

where Graham Platner, the leading

Democratic candidate to take on

incumbent Republican Susan Collins, is

facing new controversies.

>> The New York Times reporting several

ex-girlfriends describe [music]

unsettling behavior. One alleging

Platner grabbed her hard enough to leave

marks and during one argument twisted

her arm behind her back and blocked her

in a room. Platner fiercely denies any

violence.

>> [music]

>> Midterms tend to be tough for the

incumbent party and this year has come

as Trump's approval ratings continue to

slide.

Polling data compiled by Real Clear

Politics show the president's overall

rating is hovering around 40%. On

average, just 34% of Americans approve

of how he's handling the economy.

>> I think the big themes on the Republican

side are just Trump's grip on the

Republican party and how long that

lasts.

>> Bloomberg political correspondent Nancy

Cook.

>> On the Democratic side, I think that

they are really looking for leaders and

looking for ideas that are going to

bring them back to power and there's a

lot of competing factions.

>> [music]

>> Nancy says Democrats and Republicans are

fighting for control of the House and

the Senate

>> [music]

>> and so much more.

>> Trump is not going to be able to confirm

people to lead agencies if he fires them

or confirm judges if Democrats control

the Senate. He's not going to be able to

pass legislation through Congress if

[music] Democrats take back the Senate

and Democrats meanwhile want to take

back the Senate and the House because

they want to have checks on Trump.

>> As all eyes are on these national races,

state and local elections are also

painting a clearer picture of US

political sentiment [music] and

strategy.

Votes are still being tallied in the

primary for California governor.

>> It's one of the top jobs in Democratic

politics. It is a state where you get

to, you know, lead a lot of the liberal

Democratic opposition to Trump.

>> Eliyahu Kamisher has been following

elections in California for Bloomberg.

>> You have a massive economy. If it was

its own country, it would be around the

fourth biggest GDP in the world.

Um and you get to also set the agenda

for Democrats.

>> Nancy and Eliyahu say it's all building

to a bigger question. [music]

Who will run? And who could win in 2028?

[music]

>> There's a real fight for ideas and

leadership in the Democratic Party and

who wins in November will give us some

really key [music] clues as to what type

of Democrat is best positioned to become

the Democratic nominee in 2028.

>> [music]

>> This is the Big Take from Bloomberg

News. I'm Sara Holder. Today on the

show, [music] as US midterm election

season begins to ramp up, my co-host

David Gura and I sit down with

Bloomberg's [music] Nancy Cook and

Eliyahu Kamisher to understand what's at

stake and which messages will land with

voters.

>> Nancy, let me start with you. You are a

political correspondent for Bloomberg

and I imagine that these days the

midterms are taking up a lot of your

psychic space. We're talking right

before a few closely watched races this

week in Maine and South Carolina and I

want to start with Maine. There's a

primary to determine who's going to

challenge Republican Senator Susan

Collins and Graham Platner has been the

frontrunner.

Now he's dealing with some personal

controversies that could derail the

success he's had. In broad strokes first

of all, who is he and and how did he

become the frontrunner in Maine?

>> So, Gideon Platner um is a very

interesting figure. You know, Chuck

Schumer, the minority leader in the

Senate, had wanted Janet Mills, who is

the sitting governor, who has been a

really, you know, successful critic of

Trump, has governing experience. He had

really wanted her to be the Democratic

nominee for Senate. But she's 76 and

there is obviously in the post Joe Biden

era a lot of sensitivity about putting

up someone in their mid to late 70s for

a 6-year Senate term. And a lot of

people in Maine also passed on getting

into the race. They didn't want to run

for Senate against Susan Collins, who is

a long-time Republican incumbent. And

so, while everybody in Maine was

dithering around, Gideon Platner, who is

a veteran and an oysterman, threw his

name into the ring and ended up getting

a lot of energy just from actual voters.

And Bernie Sanders endorsed him and

Elizabeth Warren endorsed him based on

sort of the connection that he had with

voters and also these messages of

economic populism that he was espousing.

>> Because I can't wait to wade into that

fight alongside Gideon Platner.

>> And I think that people in Democratic

politics came to view him as kind of one

of these new outsider candidates that

they're looking for. But there has been

this steady drip of problematic stories

about him. He has a Nazi-ling tattoo on

his chest, which he ended up covering

up. He has said different stories about

whether or not he knew it was affiliated

with the Nazis. The New York Times came

out with a big story about how he

treated some of his ex-girlfriends. You

know, sort of allegations of physical

abuse, which he has said are not true.

And Janet Mills has said, you know,

she's not going to she wasn't going to

run anymore, but her name is still on

the ballot. And so, it's really

interesting dynamic in Maine, where now

Democrats are stuck with this candidate

who is kind of imperfect, who has all

these headlines running against Susan

Collins who, you know, Republicans don't

totally love but still want her to

control the Senate. And Maine is really

important to the Senate race because it

was one of the seats that Democrats

viewed as most promising to flip and

potentially take over from Republicans

and now that just really seems in doubt.

>> And Nancy, Glenn Platner seems to

represent a sort of shift in the typical

candidate that Democrats have been

running, right? What do you think his

brand of politics signals about the

Democrats' broader strategy heading into

these midterms and what happens

if he wins and and what happens if he

loses?

>> I've been to Kentucky in the last month,

I've been to Texas, I've been talking to

a lot of voters and I think that people

are very mad. You know, they're very mad

at both parties. And so that is what

gives an opening to candidates like

Glenn Platner and I think that

there is this tendency for voters to

kind of look for the non-politician now

and that is very alluring. And you have

to remember a decade ago we saw that

with Donald Trump. And so I think what

Glenn Platner shows us is like how much

appetite is there really for an

outsider? Are you uh comfortable with

the fact that there might be a lot of

skeletons in their closet you might not

know exactly what you're getting? How

much do you want that?

>> And I think the uniqueness of Maine is a

huge part of this. I've got family in

Maine and it's been interesting to see

sort of how

they have processed what's come out,

what they've said about their friends

who have kind of noticed who have maybe

supported Platner and seen all of this

come out. And there's kind of an

iconoclastic

mold to a lot of Mainers I think. Um

Sarah, you've got family in California.

I know that you've been following the

races there very closely because of it.

>> Yeah, Elihu, I really wanted to talk

about this cuz in my household we've

been refreshing and refreshing the

results from the gubernatorial and LA

mayoral primaries. California has pretty

reliably produced national candidates.

They've tested national strategies there

at least as far as the Democratic Party

goes.

So as you look at some of the key

California races.

What is at stake both locally and

nationally?

>> I think the big race is the governor's

primary and it's been really the first

truly wide-open gubernatorial primary in

decades. So now it's come down to Javier

Becerra, Joe Biden's former health

secretary, and Steve Hilton, the former

Fox News commentator. He was also in the

British government under David Cameron,

a proponent of Brexit. And then also

it's still too early to call

the former hedge fund founder Tom Steyer

who became a billionaire and then left

his hedge fund to pursue climate

activism. He's trailing in third.

>> What does this match up say to you? And

what's driving these two very different

candidates' appeal in the state?

>> Yeah, it's a good question. I think with

Becerra

what it really says is actually the

staying power of a candidate who has a

long political track record and has

risen through the ranks of Democratic

politics. He He started in Congress in

the 1990s. He is a fixture in the state.

You know, early in this race he was

polling at 4 or 5%. He was at the bottom

of the pack.

And even the state Democratic Party

people were kind of telling Javier,

"Hey, I think you probably need to drop

out because there was actually some

worries early on that two Republicans

could make it to the top because it's a

it's a top two primary format."

>> Which would be pretty unheard of for

California.

>> That would have been unheard of. The

state party was essentially they were

shaming people like Javier and some of

the lower polling candidates saying like

they're releasing these public polls

saying you guys kind of need to drop

out. He didn't drop out and then we had

this huge kind of October surprise that

didn't happen in October, but Eric

Swalwell faced some really serious

sexual assault and sexual misconduct

allegations and his campaign imploded

and he resigned from Congress. He

dropped out of the race.

And there was kind of this remarkable

almost overnight surge for Javier.

He also has a record as a California AG

of suing Trump like 120 times and you

know, that holds a lot of sway amongst

California Democratic voters where

they're going to be able to oppose

Trump. So

you know, almost overnight he saw a huge

surge in the poll. He went to the

frontrunner status and he's held that

through, you know, through the primary.

>> You've walked through the personal

dynamics. I'm curious sort of from a

policy perspective, what issues were on

the ballot for California voters and I

think there's this tendency rightly or

wrongly to look at a primary in a state

like California and try to divine some

indication of what the the broader

electorate is is looking for here in the

the midterms.

Should we do that in this case or are

the issues animating the California

electorate the same as the ones you

think that are animating voters around

the country?

>> I think so. I mean, the affordability is

is the big one in California right now

and you do see this kind of division.

Tom Steyer ran on this populist message

of saying we're going to tax

corporations, we're going to tax

billionaires and we're going to, you

know, use that revenue to make things

more affordable. We're also going to go

like directly at the pocketbooks of

utilities in the state which have kind

of a state-mandated monopoly.

He spent over $215 million of his own

money pushing this message out into

California and that bought him a role in

this in this election, but it didn't

totally resonate with people and I think

because if you're selling a populist

message, people have to believe the

person who is selling that message and

at the end of the day, Tom Steyer is a

billionaire and a lot of people I talked

to said, you know, like that's kind of a

non-starter for them.

>> [music]

>> After the break, how Trump's

endorsements are influencing the

midterms, and whether AI could be the

next political battle line.

Presidential endorsements can make a big

impact on local races. They can elevate

a candidate's name recognition, put them

on the national map.

But with President Trump's approval

rating declining, we wanted to ask Nancy

and Eliahu what kind of influence he has

on the midterms this time around.

>> I think Trump still has a huge amount of

sway over how Republican politics is

going to play out both in the midterms

and in uh you know, 2028. I was in

Kentucky and there was a Republican

primary with Thomas Massie and Ed

Gallrein who is the Trump-endorsed

candidate who no one had ever heard of

and he was a Navy SEAL, but he'd never

held office before. And basically his

whole message to voters was like Trump

endorsed me and that was like that was

it. He refused to outline policy

positions, he wasn't doing media

interviews, but it was like Trump

endorsed me.

>> Massie, the latest Republican lawmaker

to lose after being declared disloyal by

the president.

>> And so I still think that Trump holds a

ton of sway in a bunch of different

states and is still powerful enough that

just like him endorsing someone or or

tweeting about someone really makes a

difference.

>> Nancy, you talked about the power of the

the Trump endorsement and he quite

proudly has trumpeted that after the

primaries that we've seen thus far. We

did see a crack in that Waller and his

ability to do that in Iowa in this

gubernatorial primary. Zack Lorn

defeated President Trump's pick, that's

Randy Feenstra, the the congressman.

What does that tell you? Is that an

anomaly in light of all of the successes

that Donald Trump has had thus far or is

it a sign to you that power may not be

as as strong as the president's

presenting and as we've kind of accepted

here over the the first primaries we've

seen.

>> I think that his power is still strong,

but I think that we're we're seeing

cracks and we're seeing that in polling,

we're seeing that as I talked to voters,

we're seeing that in Iowa, and I feel

like Iowa is a good example of a place

where people are mad about a lot of

Trump policies. You know, Iowa, when I

was there in 2024 for the Republican

caucuses, like it's it's, you know, was

really a Trump country at that point.

However, people are very mad there about

the tariffs, uh you know, they're really

mad about the war in Iran. It has raised

fuel prices, prices for fertilizer, you

know, a lot of uh farmers are mad about

the uh policies that they've done with

tariffs on beef. I mean, there's just

like a lot of economic policies that are

hurting people in Iowa, voters there,

Republicans, and they're not happy about

it. And I think that that's why we saw

the Trump-backed candidate not win,

because I Iowa voters are looking at

their own pocketbooks and thinking like

this agenda's not working for me, even

though I voted for this guy.

>> I mean, that is a pattern we've seen in

past midterms, right, Nancy? In general,

incumbent parties tend to lose ground,

and we're obviously seeing polling

indicate that the president has made a

lot of um choices that are unpopular

with voters.

What are we seeing this year in terms of

the breakdown between where Democrats

are potentially picking up votes and

where Republicans are holding strong?

>> The Republican base is still pretty with

Trump on things like, you know, the

economy and immigration or you know,

they're still willing to give him some

grace. But I think that where Democrats

see, you know, there was a whole crew of

people who really swayed towards

Republicans in 2024 for the presidential

race, and this was, you know, swing

voters, independents, um black men,

young men, Hispanics, and that whole

crew is kind of up for grabs in the

midterms. And

that coalition that Trump assembled has

really been frayed. They're not locked

in with the Republican Party. They are

not Republicans. And so I think that

Democrats are trying to win those people

over. Democrats are also really trying

to win over working-class people again,

white working-class people. Trump was

really the first Republican to come in

and take that those voters away from

Democrats a decade ago. And so I think

Democrats are trying to win back those

people.

>> [music]

>> Is there anything else that we should be

factoring in as we look forward to these

primaries this week and and in the weeks

ahead and and make our way to the

midterms? Um

Nancy, I'll start with you.

>> There are new things coming up in

elections. And so how AI plays out in

the election both in terms of what it

looks like in ads, what it looks like in

disinformation online to try to convince

voters. And then AI companies are

pouring a huge amount of money into

different races. Um and so that is kind

of a new dark money group that you can't

discount because that is a new industry

that wants some say in the regulations.

And I think that that is going to play a

huge role in the midterms, sort of where

that money flows, and an even bigger

role in 2028.

>> I was actually going to echo that, the

impact of tech and AI. And I think what

we saw was actually that tech [music] is

becoming a bit of a boogeyman.

There was one candidate, his name was

Matt Mahan. He's the mayor of San Jose.

It's like the largest city in Silicon

Valley.

>> [music]

>> His candidacy was like backed by a huge

amount of

>> [music]

>> of Silicon Valley figures, some big

names like Sergey Brin, also Reed

Hastings, CEO of Netflix. A lot of

venture capitalists came in for him. And

they liked his moderate Democrat,

uh little more fiscally conservative,

anti-establishment.

Um but he didn't come in saying, "I'm

going to take on tech." Um and that

money ended up kind of being an

albatross for him. He was labeled as a

tech bro, [music] and he failed to kind

of break out of that. And I think a lot

of people saw that and said, "Hey, if

you're backed by all these

>> [music]

>> you know, singular billionaires, and you

say you're going to turn around and

regulate them, that's a hard thing to

sell." [music]

And then, you know, nearby there was a

uh Ro Khanna faced primary from a

Democrat, Ethan Agarwal, and that was

spurred by Ro Khanna backing a proposed

billionaire tax in California. After

[music] he came out with that, you saw a

huge amount of kind of

anger on social media from some of these

tech [music] elite.

And they said Ro Khanna's, you know,

done with, and we're going to back a

primary against him. They backed this

guy named Ethan, [music]

and he has done, you know, dismally, and

Ro Khanna seems stronger than ever. So,

I think that was kind of another

reflection of like Silicon Valley

frustration with Democrats and the kind

of skewing [music] towards Republicans

that we're seeing on the national level.

That is definitely [music] not playing

well in California at the moment. This

kind of AI nexus with billionaires, with

Trump, I think that's going to be kind

of an emerging issue that's going to be,

you know, playing out in more elections

to come.

>> [music]

>> This is The Big Take from Bloomberg

News. I'm Sarah Holder. [music]

To get more from The Big Take and

unlimited access to all of

Bloomberg.com,

>> [music]

>> subscribe today at Bloomberg.com/podcast

offer.

Thanks for listening. [music] We'll be

back tomorrow.