Mohnish Pabrai: FASTEST Way To Financial Freedom! Proven Playbook For Quitting Your 9-5 In 9 Months!
2869 segments
Why do they call you the Dhandho
Investor? It's a way of doing business
and making money without taking risk.
Like for example, Mr. Gates, Mr. Walton,
Mr. Branson, all of these people
followed these simple mental models. So,
if they won, they would win big. And if
they lost, they'd lose nothing. So, I
want to know everything. Okay, let's
start with this. Mohnish Pabrai is the
self-made millionaire who built one of
the most respected investment firms in
the world, managing over a billion
dollars. And now, he's giving us the
simple tools and frameworks to create
life-changing wealth. If humans
understood that if I embark on a
business in a format where the risk is
close to zero, more people would do it.
And that's what these mental models do.
For example, cloning. We are taught, if
you want to start a business, you need
to come up with something new. But
actually, if you are a great cloner, you
will be 90% ahead of the rest of
humanity. And in fact, everything that
Microsoft has done well at has come from
copying someone on the outside. And
then, there's time. When you're starting
a business, don't quit the day job
because some other yo-yo is paying your
rent. But it does mean that you need to
find time to work on your business. But
I will show you the perfect way to
allocate your time. And that's not all.
There's models like low-hanging fruit,
skin in the game, givers versus takers,
and the circle of competence. And I'll
I'll explain all of them. What about
investing? Cuz you're very well known
for being an excellent investor. There
are three things that matter with
investing. And there's also something
known as the rule of 72, but I wish they
would teach it more in high school. And
it tells us how long it takes money to
double. Now, this is exciting.
I see messages all the time in the
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you so much because in a strange way you
are you're part of our history and
you're on this journey with us and I
appreciate you for that. So, yeah, thank
you.
Mohnish Pabrai,
with the work that you do and the sort
of public educating that you've done
more recently in your career,
what is the message you're trying to
convey? If you had to summarize that
message and exactly who you're trying to
convey it to?
It really depends on
uh
what message.
There are uh a few different mental
models that I've figured out
over the last few decades. When you have
uh you know, clarity on these mental
models and especially
when you can start overlaying them,
that's when you get 1 + 1 becomes 11.
And uh so, these mental models are not
all in the same direction or in the same
genre. So, just to pause there for a
second. So, the the word mental models
Yeah.
>> means it's basically a framework for
thinking.
>> Yes.
>> So, one framework for thinking is this
idea of cloning
>> Yes.
>> um as one such example. Yes. Let's take
the mental model of cloning. Cloning.
>> Cloning, right? So,
um
what we are taught is that if you want
to start a business,
you need to come up with something new.
Something that hasn't been done before.
But, the reality is that the world will
very easily accept three of the same
thing
or five of the same thing. And usually
it is an advantage
to look at something that already exists
and say,
"Can
another one of those exist?" For
example, or can I take what's there and
tweak it a little bit? So, there's
something peculiar in the human psyche,
maybe going back into our history and
our ancestral evolution,
where humans look down upon cloning.
But, if you look at it, so for example,
two of the greatest cloners, I think, in
human history,
were Bill Gates and Sam Walton.
Now, we think of Bill Gates as an
innovator.
And we think Sam Walton created Walmart,
which was also new. But, actually,
they're both me-too models.
And
Microsoft would not have existed
without being a great cloner.
So, when we look at um Microsoft Word,
it came from WordPerfect. Which was a
company
>> Which a competitor that he took out.
Uh we look at Excel, it came from Lotus.
Uh we look at Bing, came from Google.
And you know what Bing is, but it's not
Google.
Everything that Microsoft has done well
at
has come from copying someone on the
outside.
And when we look at Sam Walton, who's,
you know, the Walton family, if you
pull them all together,
it's the richest family in the world.
It's richer than
uh Elon and everyone.
And Sam Walton, by his own admission,
would tell you that he has no original
ideas.
So, originally, Walmart
cloned Sears and Kmart. For my
international listeners, these are two
big supermarket chains.
>> Yeah, and they're both gone. They're
They're And in fact, Walmart buried
them.
And um
and Sam Walton
was one of the most intense cloners
ever.
So, if he was driving on vacation with
his family,
and he's passing some retail store, he
would tell his family to stay in the car
and he would go in the store just to
check it out. And he said that there is
there is no human who has lived in
history or will live in the future
who has visited more retail stores than
he has.
One time there was a manager of his and
he would go in with his managers to
these stores. Retail is one of the most
transparent businesses. You can go into
your competitor's store and you'll
figure out the entire business model in
10 minutes. You don't need to talk to
them. Okay, it's beautiful. So, he went
into this retail store and the manager
says to him, "Oh, what a terrible
operation. The the whole store was
topsy-turvy. It's really bad." And Sam
says to him, "Yeah, but did you see the
candle display?"
The candle display was fantastic. So,
Sam felt that he could learn from
anyone.
It didn't matter if you were a useless
operator or a great operator or
whatever, anyone in the middle. Walmart
is just an amalgamation
of ideas from other places. If we look
at If you look at a company like
Starbucks,
we think of Starbucks as innovative, but
actually what Howard Schultz did is
he saw a concept in Italy
and his idea was that I think this is
work in the US, right? And so, he cloned
he cloned that idea from Italy and
brought that coffee shop experience to
the US. If you are a great cloner,
you will be
90% ahead or 95% of the rest of
humanity.
Now,
another mental model,
humans have this
perspective
that starting a business
is risky. In reality, entrepreneurs do
not take risk.
They do everything in their power to
minimize risk. And in many cases, when
they embark on a business,
the risk approaches zero.
What is extremely risky
is a 9:00 to 5:00 job.
Because we have one life.
Right? And it goes away. And you may not
get to do what's in your heart. You may
not get your music out. Right? And so,
getting our music out is really
important. So,
so this notion, which is drilled into
us, that
if you're an entrepreneur, you're taking
risk, really kind of does a big
disservice
to
most humans. And if if humans understood
that if I embark on a business, I can do
it in a format where the risk is zero or
close to zero.
And I can clone an existing business.
Right? Now you've
combined two mental models.
And we can start adding more to them.
But two has become 11. 1 + 1 has already
become 11. It's non-linear. And
why is it
that why is why am I saying
that entrepreneurs do not take risk? So,
if I take my own case as an example, and
I can give you 100 cases like that, but
if I take my own case as an example,
I was working
9:00 to 5:00 at a company.
And I had a business idea.
My employer expected me to work 40 hours
a week, right?
There's 168 hours in the week. So, I
felt like there must be at least another
30 40 hours that I could work
on my startup. Could you show me this in
context?
>> Right. So, if you look at our whole
week, for example, these beautifully
arranged LEGOs. If I take one of these
blocks of LEGOs, so each one of those
blocks in there is 2 hours. So, 8 hours
a day, we're sleeping 8 hours a day,
right? And uh and we're doing that 7
days a week, right? So, basically we've
got 7 days a week, 8 hours a day, we're
sleeping.
The blue LEGOs are showing our 40 hours
a week.
Uh 8 hours a day, 5 days a week, we're
working, right? Then we get to
other, you know,
uh preparing dinner and showering,
shaving, getting ready, whatever else.
So, that's about 4 hours a day on the
weekdays, which is including commute
time.
And about 8 hours a day on the weekend.
Then we get to free time, you know,
social media and watching Netflix and
hanging out with friends, going for
dinner.
And we've got
quite a bit. We've got about 4 hours a
day of doing that. And about 8 hours a
day on the weekend. So, this is kind of
typical what a typical week for most
people would look like, right? Mhm. Now,
when you're starting a business, the
important thing
is don't shut off the cash flow.
Some other yo-yo is paying your rent.
And some other yo-yo is paying your
groceries. So, we don't want to rock the
boat.
But we're going to make one change to
blue. Which is the amount of hours I'm
working for my 9-5.
>> Now, before I started my startup, um I
used to
get top reviews as an employee.
Uh you know,
I was very focused on doing a great job
for my employer, all in, right?
The day I decided I'm going to run do my
startup, I decided I need to be just
above firing level.
My performance needs to be just good
enough
so they don't can me.
But nothing beyond that because I need
all my energy to go into my startup. So
that's the only tweak I'm making is the
blue stays, but we're not doing extra
blues like we were doing before, right?
And blue for anybody that doesn't can't
see cuz you're listening on audio is
work. Exactly. Yeah. Blue is work,
exactly.
Now
when we embark on a startup,
we should never do a startup to make
money.
It's the worst reason
to start a company.
The purpose of business is not to make
money.
The purpose of business is to deliver
an incredible product or service to
humanity.
If you do that, the money is a side
effect.
It'll happen. We don't need to focus on
it. So what we are looking for is
do we have a product or a service that
we're thinking about that we could bring
into this world
that is going to improve the world in
some way. How do I know if it's a good
idea?
Whatever idea you have come up with
is not going to work.
Okay?
Because you came up with it in an ivory
tower between your ears.
Okay? And that's not really a great
place to find great ideas.
What's going to happen is we're going to
be doing what I call rapid prototyping,
which is we take this idea
and show humans what it is. And when you
show it to humans, you will get
feedback. So I'll I'll I'll
um maybe I'll just give it in more
practical terms.
Uh
when I was um
uh when I was starting my first
business, uh it was going to be a IT
services business. Okay, information
technology services. And I was going to
be providing these services to very
large businesses.
Companies that are, you know, billion
dollars or more in in earnings or cash
flows.
Um,
I was in a meeting with a, uh, senior IT
guy at a very large bank in Chicago.
And I was going through my PowerPoint
deck with them.
I came to the 10th slide,
said my spiel, went to slide 11.
So, the boss who was sitting in the
meeting said, "Go back to slide 10."
So, I went back to slide 10, again gave
my speech that I had for slide 10, and
took it to 11.
He said,
"Go back to slide 10, and do not change
the slide.
I don't have an interest in any other
slide.
Okay? So, I took it back to slide 10.
And all he wanted to talk about was what
was on slide 10.
My deck was talking about
seven things we could do.
Slide 10 was one of those seven.
It was an extreme pain point for him.
He needed help on that one thing.
He didn't need help on all the other
riffraff stuff I was talking about.
So,
when you're doing a startup,
you have to be
listening very carefully.
Your customers or potential customers
will tell you exactly what you need to
do.
Whatever you came up with maybe 80%
right or 70% right or 40% right, but
your customer will tell you what is 100%
right. Okay, because that's a real pain
point. So, I went back and thought about
it
and I realized that his pain point
and I could see it was a severe pain
point because he gave me a purchase
order at the end of that meeting.
Um was going to be a pain point for a
lot of people.
So, I went back.
I took slide 10,
blew it up into 20 slides, and that
became the deck.
Okay, everything else got thrown out.
Right now, I couldn't have done that
without him.
My brain is too small to have figured
that out. So, anytime you're doing a
startup of any kind
and you have a prototype or a early
product or something going on,
your users are going to tell you exactly
what
tweak they want. You've just reminded me
of a conversation I had this morning.
Okay. Where I interviewed someone
because much of what you're saying is
orientated towards startups, but it's
actually every single day of everyone's
life because I interviewed someone this
morning for a really critical role in
the company. And this person has spent
20 years at one of the biggest companies
in the world. And
when I was doing the interview, she was
telling me about lots of things she's
done during those 20 years. And I was
just trying to get to this one thing,
can you put on events? And she was
telling me about this and that and the
other thing and this and this and the
other thing. And I was just actually I'd
only come to this interview to figure
out if she could do put on big scale
events. So, we spent over an hour
conversation. We spent 55 minutes
talking about a bunch of things I wasn't
interested in. And actually as she was
speaking, I was going, "Do you know what
she could have done at the start of that
conversation? She could have gone,
'Steven, can I ask you one question?
What is the What are you looking for
from from this person?'" And if And then
I would have gone, "I just want someone
that can put on events." And then the
next 55 minutes could have been
persuading me that she can do that.
Sure. And it just applies to what you
just said there. How could you of this
as the sales person that day in that
meeting,
with what you know now, how could you
have done a better job without going
through all of those slides?
Well, I think what what I would do now
if I were doing something like that is
that my my radar
on listening would be 10x.
You know, we don't learn when we speak.
We learn when we listen. So, I would
really be trying to talk less and
extract more. Mhm. And I wouldn't even
rely so much on slides. I'd like to
really try to bring them in into into
what they are trying to say. And uh
And and so, basically in uh if if you
study if you study businesses, you know,
venture back, non-venture back,
whatever, this is a very
common thing. There are almost no
businesses
who end up with the business model that
was originally conceived. I mean, that
just is would be such an anomaly.
It's really the interplay between the
founding team and the early customers,
which really leads to taking this wet
clay
and making into something that people
want.
>> Mhm.
You know, and so, you know, if you think
of something like Google Glass, you
know, when they came up with those
glasses that they thought the whole
world was going to wear. Yeah. So,
it didn't work.
Well, why didn't it work?
Well, the reason it didn't work is
you're talking about something extremely
personal. Okay? Like, for example,
Wrigley's chewing gum. Okay?
My mouth is a very personal space.
I'm not going to put Glotz chewing gum
in there. What's Glotz chewing gum?
Exactly.
>> Okay. Okay? Yeah. You're not going to
put some brand that's half the price of
Wrigley's in there.
Because you don't want to go there.
That's not of interest to you. So, when
we wear glasses or sunglasses or
anything we wear,
that's very personal.
So, the the ergonomics and the human
factors are very important. If it's
slightly off, now
Meta
is trying to do the same thing. But,
they went to Ray-Ban.
Right? They did a JV with Ray-Ban.
Those glasses look like normal glasses.
Mhm. I think there's a higher chance.
Well, I've got some.
I used them, yeah. You don't have any
Google Glass. No, no, no, no.
I think they they cut the project,
didn't they? Yeah. So, so what I'm
trying to say is that we we have to pay
very close attention to the customer. Uh
I mean, Steve Jobs was right. The
customer doesn't know what he wants.
Okay? But, if you put it in front of
them,
then they can now tweak and tell you
exactly what they want. Right? So, so
that and that's another mental model,
which is uh now we get to the third
model, which is that you're not smart
enough. If whatever founding team you
have is not smart enough to figure out
what people want. Period. So, you have
to have very good listening skills.
And you have to be have the flexibility
to and again, when you're listening,
separate the signal from the noise.
Right? Take in what is real signal
and
leave out what is the noise. And then
you're starting to get down a path which
is going to make more sense.
The other kind of a model maybe woven
into there was this idea of just like
attention to detail. I'm not even sure
if that's a model, but when you told me
about the Walmart founders laying
between the aisles to measure the exact
centimeter of length. The model there
for me was just like precision and
detail.
It's a game of inches. I mean, what I'm
saying is that
uh when
when Sam Walton was
trying to figure out the name of the
company.
One of the reasons he went with Walmart
was it was seven letters.
And he was looking at the cost of
putting up signage
in stores, and he was trying to come up
with a name with the fewest letters
because it cost less.
Okay? And so, I mean
cost
cost sensitivity is all over the place
in Walmart. Right? I mean, that's just
front and center with what they do,
right? I mean, they just really squeeze
blood out of a rock, you know? So,
basically, I mean, I think that was and
that's the reason why they became so
successful. One of the things you can
always control in business is your
costs. You You may not be able to
control your margins and selling prices
and a lot of other things, but you can
always control costs. So, that's another
model where you have to have discipline.
You have to have very strong discipline
on the cost side. If you look at
something like LVMH, you know,
the guy who runs it,
I mean,
he's in luxury goods. He's in high-end.
LVMH make Louis Vuitton and
>> Yeah, yeah, yeah. I mean, everything,
you know? It's you know, they've taken
over Tiffany's and everyone. Um
but when you look at how the company is
run, it's very tight.
He spends money on the best real estate
because that's important. But the deals
he negotiates on those real estate is
mind-blowing. You know? So, it's it's a
very tightly run operation
on a product category that doesn't
necessarily need it. Hm. But that's why
they That's why he's become the
wealthiest guy in Europe. Because that
mentality will then apply to every
decision.
>> Absolutely.
>> And if you apply it to 100 things, it
does matter.
>> Oh, it does matter big time. Yes. So, I
have these
yellow blocks here which represent
working hours working on your own
business. So show me how you would take
some of these blocks away Yes. and
introduce hours working on your own
business. Yeah, so basically it's it's
really quite simple. We're not really
not going to mess with our sleep cycles.
We're going to leave that alone. Sleep
staying the same. And we we need our
blue, which is our work work space 40
hours. We need that to continue.
One of the changes we're going to make
is we're going to live close to work. So
we're going to cut down commute time as
much as we can. Okay. Because every hour
matters. Okay, so the area that we're
going to focus on
is the free time. Okay. And the reason
why taking out the free time
is not a problem is because what we are
embarking on, like we just discussed, is
not about making money
is getting our music out. Getting our
music out. What do you mean by that?
Which means that we
have something in us that we know the
world needs.
And we want to bring it to that world.
We want to bring it to the world. And
because we want to bring it to the world
it's not work. I think the audience
might be challenging themselves in the
head and saying but I love my the thing
I do for work.
I'm I'm one of maybe the rarer group of
people that I get to work with puppies
every day.
And I love that. Yeah, so I think that I
think this is not for everyone.
So I think you have to ask yourself who
you are.
If you are truly excited about
your 9-to-5 job and what you're spending
your main working main waking hours on
awesome.
That's great. I mean, everyone's not
going to be an entrepreneur. Everyone's
not going to have a startup. Everyone
they they may be getting their music out
in a different way on someone else's
platform, which is perfectly fine. And
but but if if that is not you, where
when you go to work, you're not super
excited to get up in the in the morning
and you're not tap dancing to work every
day. If that's not happening, then
there's something wrong. And you have to
ask yourself, well,
is there something else that is that
you're passionate about, that you want
to do?
And this is not something that should
take a lot of
effort. So, if we go back
and look at, for example, Bill Gates and
Paul Allen, right? I mean, Bill Gates is
at Harvard
and he sees
a magazine which shows a very early
personal computer
and he realizes that there's a paradigm
shift.
And he realizes that he needs to be part
of it.
And Paul Allen is the one who sent him
that magazine and he told Bill,
"We got to go do this. Now, this is our
time." Now, and for Bill,
it was a very easy decision.
Very easy decision, very
difficult for his parents. His parents
were in shock that he's going to abandon
his degree. And, you know, he he told
his parents, "Don't worry about it.
I'm going to come back and I'll finish
the degree."
And several decades later, Harvard gave
him an honorary degree.
And his parents were in the audience and
he told them, "I told you I'd come back
and finish it off, right?" So, let's put
some numbers to this. 12% of people,
according to the stats that are
listening right now, are explicitly
unsatisfied with their job, which means
they hate it. 85% of workers globally
are disengaged, meaning they're not
fully invested or happy at work. So,
it's a huge number of people. More than
half of the US workers are at least
somewhat satisfied, but engagement
remains worryingly low. So, So, we look
at that 85% number, 85% of workers
globally are disengaged,
meaning not fully invested or happy at
work. So, it's really those Sure.
people.
And and the thing is it's not it's not
just enough to be unhappy at work.
That's one piece of it. I
The unhappiness can be a symptom.
And one of the
one of the
causes can be
that you have a different calling in
life.
And you are not following following your
calling. Now,
sometimes for someone like Bill Gates,
for example, and Paul Allen, they
figured out their calling.
And they just went, right?
For many of us, it may not be that easy.
So,
what we have to do is we have to
um
try a few things. You know, you try on
different shoes to see what fits.
And so,
you know, have some thought experiments,
talk to your friends,
you know, say, "Okay, you know,
I'm a UPS driver. This is what I do. And
I really like playing the guitar, or I
like to make these art figurines or
something at home, whatever else, right?
So, you have to figure out
what your calling is. And
I'm probably not the best person to tell
you how to figure out what the calling
is. Maybe another guest of yours can can
can help them with that. Do you think
everyone has a calling?
Yeah, I mean, I think I think we are all
unique children of God. And I think we
uh we all have some music we want to get
out.
And
uh
knowing what that is and getting it out
may not be the easiest thing, but it's a
worthwhile journey
to try to get there.
Right? So,
we can't do this just because we're
dissatisfied, and we can't do this just
because we want to make money and get
rich. We've got to have something that
we think the world would be interested
in.
And
you know, in my case, I I'd gone through
this uh
session with a couple of industrial
psychologists, and they told me,
"Monish, you like to play games. You're
a game player." And actually, they
couldn't be more accurate. So,
when I was doing my startup,
um
I'm I'm a numbers guy and a math guy, so
I actually like that. So, what I used to
do is
because I had no money,
I used to send 200 letters a week to the
senior IT people
at 200 different companies. But what I
did is, so all these people I was
sending this letter to,
they had a gatekeeper, some secretary
etc., whose job was to not let anything
through.
And my whole purpose was I need this
letter to get through.
It needs to get through the gatekeeper.
So, I was using mail merge, which was
mass producing these letters, but there
was a
customization the mail merge where if
person some person name was David Smith,
it said, "Dear Dave." Okay? And then
throughout the letter, it talked Dave
Dave's name came up like three four
times. When the assistant got the
letter, she couldn't tell whether I know
Dave or not. Because you used his
shortened name.
>> His shortened name, and she doesn't want
to throw a letter that is somebody that
he knows.
So, the letter would go through
Mhm. enough times, right? Now, what I
also did is uh 1 week after those
letters were delivered,
I called I made 200 calls. I called all
200 people.
And basically, if I got voicemail, left
a message, whatever else, right? Now
they have entered the sales funnel.
Okay, so
Dave Smith is in the sales funnel.
If I get no response from Dave Smith
after 1 week there's one more call.
Then the calls start getting spaced out
double time, 2 weeks out, then 4 weeks
out, then 8 weeks out, then 16 weeks
out, but
Dave never leaves that funnel.
Okay, until he tells me
"Do not bother me anymore
and I have no interest." They're going
to stay in that funnel. So the second
week I send out another 200 letters,
make another 200 calls, right? And now
I've got the first week, second week. So
you can see as time goes on
I'm calling nonstop, right? Because this
thing is
but what I was tracking
because I'm a math guy, what I was
tracking is, "Okay, these 200 letters
went out. How many people did I get any
kind of positive response from?" Right?
Because not everyone's telling me to get
lost. Okay? And how many meetings am I
having?
And what is the ratio of calls to
meetings, meetings to close, etc. And
my ticket size of the item I was selling
was very large, hundreds of thousands of
dollars, right?
9 months after doing this, where now
let's go back here. So we're going to
take our free time. So what I've tried
to describe is that what I'm doing
is actually more exciting than the
orange. The yellow
is more exciting
than the orange. So basically we are
>> The yellow is our startup. So that's
working on your startup.
>> So on on the weekends
I'm going to do 10 hours a day because
I'm not working, right?
And on the weekdays, I'm going to do 4
hours a day because I've got other
things to do.
Because I have a job and whatever else
is going on. So, there's my weekdays.
5 days there when I'm putting in 4 hours
a day.
And then I'm putting in 10 hours on the
weekend. And the free time,
this is not as exciting
as pounding Dave.
Pounding Dave continuously till he says
either get off my back or here's your
purchase order
is very exciting.
It's way more exciting than playing some
social media or watching Netflix or
whatever else. Which is what people
currently do with their free time.
>> Right. So, one of your one of the litmus
test of whether
you need to you should be doing a
startup or not is yellow
needs to be more exciting than orange.
Your startup needs to be more exciting
than your free time.
>> should be so painfully boring for you.
And going on Facebook or Instagram or
whatever should be very boring for you.
Compared to This is exciting. Compared
to building your company. Yes.
So, you know, um the Pink Floyd's song,
"We don't need no education." Yeah. "We
don't need no thought control." Yeah. We
don't need none of this.
This is so useless. You understand how
useless this is? Yellow is where it's
at.
It's not It's not with the orange stuff.
You don't need this. Thank you. See you.
So, we don't need any free time.
This is better than free time. Building
your business. You having an orgasm
every hour.
So, what can you What can be better than
this?
Much of what I do here when I'm having
these conversations is I'm trying to put
myself in the shoes of the person who is
currently sat in a in a 9-5 job and
they've they've got an idea and their
idea is isn't really hasn't really gone
anywhere yet necessarily and the the
pressure they're feeling in their lives
is is probably now a financial one. Like
they want financial freedom. They want
more optionality in their lives to be
able to go on holiday, make more choices
and have more freedom. If you're that
person,
um, what are the mental models that we
haven't discussed yet that you need to
be thinking about to get from zero to
one? So one of the things to keep in
mind is that we live in a world now
where most things that you would want to
do in terms of starting a business
are not capital intensive. What does
that mean?
Doesn't take much money.
In fact, what's been happening over time
is startups need less and less and less
money because they need more and more
and more brainpower.
Right? So the good news is
that
a gating factor
is not that you need money.
When when I started my business, I took
on
I signed up for every credit card that
would come to me. So I had 70,000 in
unused credit lines
in a probably a dozen Visa and
MasterCards, right?
I had about $30,000 in my retirement
account, my 401k, which I also took out
at like 25, I can make that up later,
right? So basically I had $100,000 of
capital.
And
that 100,000 got used because once I got
going, I needed working capital and so
on.
And but then the business was the
business was actually cash flow positive
9 months after I was doing this,
I was able to get rid of this.
So after 9 months, my business was
producing
enough cash flow
that I went and resigned.
Okay? And uh yeah, we can we can put
that in here as well. So, what happened
is that
I went to my boss and his boss and
basically told them that
I'm
started a business. It's not competitive
with the company and
I'm going to be leaving in 2 weeks and
this is my two weeks notice. And
basically, that was that, right?
And
you know, they they sat me down and
said, "You know, Monish,
we were so confused for the last 9
months
because
we met several times because we saw big
drop-off in your performance.
But it was never so low that we wanted
to fire you." I said, "Exactly.
That was exactly what I was trying to
do. I was trying to stay just above
firing level." He said, "Well, you
mastered it because we we met several
times, but we couldn't get rid of you."
So, they what they told me is
they said, "Look, when your business
fails,
not if your business fails, when your
business fails,
please come back.
We'll give you more money.
You're going to get a promotion.
And we'd love to have you back."
I could immediately come back. So, I
said, "I got one free shot Yeah. where I
leave my job, I go,
I do this thing, and if it doesn't work,
I'm back to almost exactly where I was.
Almost no change, right?
>> type one, type two decision making.
Yeah. Yeah. And so, and this is not just
me. What risk does Bill Gates take?
Okay, Bill Gates, what is his value
as a Harvard freshman in the job market?
Zero. Okay? He Nobody would pay him
anything.
And he could come back anytime and
finish that degree. So, let's say he
went to New Mexico. Things didn't work
out. He's got wealthy parents in
Seattle, okay? He just comes back,
graduates a year later, and he goes on.
So, what was the risk? There was no
risk. And if you study entrepreneur
after entrepreneur after entrepreneur,
what you're going to find So, if we look
at Sir Richard Branson,
he wants to start an airline.
Okay? Now, to start the airline, you
need a jumbo 747.
That costs like 150 million. The plane?
The plane, right? That's some serious
money.
Richard Branson got Virgin Atlantic off
the ground with zero.
And with zero risk. So, here's what he
did.
You replace capital with creative
thinking.
So, he calls
206-555-1212,
which is directory assistance in
Seattle, Washington.
And he asks for the phone number for
Boeing. Okay? So, he calls the main
Boeing switchboard.
>> Boeing sell the planes, right? Yeah,
Boeing makes the 747. So, he calls the
main switchboard of Boeing, giant huge
company,
and says,
"Uh I'd like to lease a jumbo."
And they hang up on him. Okay?
He calls about 30 times, and they keep
hanging up. And finally, they get tired
of his calls, and the lady says, "Let me
put you in touch with somebody who's in
charge of leasing, and they can tell you
to get lost." Okay? So, she transfers
him to a person who's
actually leasing jumbos.
This person tells Richard, says, "Look,
Mr. Branson, in every country, we have
one customer.
And in the UK, that is the British that
is British Airways. So, we have nothing
to talk about." So, he said, "Well, just
humor me for a second." He said, "If
British Airways called you and said that
they wanted to lease
a old used jumbo.
Do you have one lying around? So, the
guy said as a matter of fact we do, but
that's academic.
He says, well, what would you lease it
to British Airways for just since we're
having a conversation.
What ended up happening is
Boeing leased him that jumbo.
And the reason they leased him that
jumbo is they had one just sitting
around.
So, they didn't really have any risk
because they said the moment the guy
doesn't make any payments, we're going
to pull the plane. Mhm.
>> Right? So, now when you have an airline,
you sell all the seats 4 months in
advance. The cash has already come in.
You pay for the fuel 30 days after the
plane lands and you pay for the lease
after the plane lands.
You don't need any capital.
Virgin Atlantic got off the ground with
zero capital.
Okay, now if you can start an airline
which needs a jumbo with zero capital,
you can start any business with zero
capital. Okay? So,
so basically
when you look at business after business
after business,
all of them what they do is they start
small, they're embryonic, they minimize
risk, they get a few customers, and then
after they just roll with the customers,
right? And then that's how they get
going. So,
so the important thing is that when we
take the blue out, when blue is no
longer here, Which is what?
>> with the work is gone, yellow's going to
almost double or triple because this is
where all the orgasmic activity is. So,
we move the work, we quit the 9-5 job
and we move that time over to work on
our startup time.
>> I was working on my startup like from
7:00 to 9:00 in the morning, and then I
would come back 6:00 p.m. and work till
10:00 or 12:00 in the evening. When you
had a job.
>> When I had my job, and then I'd work on
the weekends. And I was so desperate
to just go full-time into it because I
just said if you just let me go full
time,
I can tear it up. And that's exactly
what happened. I mean, we
in about five first year we did 400,000
revenue, second year 1.4 million, third
year 3 million, and by the 6th or 7th
year we were at about 15, 17 million. It
just grew because basically then I had
no shackles on me.
You know, I could just go full out,
right? And the engine I I knew all the
statistics of these letters, so many
calls, so many this, so much this means
this and all of that. And uh it works.
So,
and and if if it doesn't work, you can
go back to your 9:00 to 5:00 and give it
another shot, you know? So, you actually
could do this a few times. I think
that's a really unappreciated framework,
as you call it, or mental model, which
is
cuz you said you sent 200 letters. I So
many times kids come up to me in the
street and they say, "Look, I've been
looking for a job. I've sent
six emails." Yeah. And they go, "No
one's got back to me." Yeah. And you can
see that it's hit hit their confidence.
And now they've actually arrived at the
conclusion that getting a job is like
harder or impossible cuz they sent six.
Now, when I interview people like you,
they all give me much bigger numbers.
They say 200, 300, five, you know?
And there's something in this sort of
law of averages,
which is just like just take more
swings. You know, you see it in like
cricket.
>> My my daughter, when she was graduating
from Berkeley, came to me and I was
really surprised. She said, "I want to
work at a hedge fund." And so I I said,
"Okay." And her degree was not in
business. So, she was not a natural
candidate to be even considered. I said,
"Uh can you make a list
of every hedge fund in New York and LA
and put it in Excel,
managing partner's name, address." Now,
we don't know people's email addresses,
but we know everyone's mailing address.
Okay, the mailing address is a public
piece of data. The address. The address
is easy, right?
And I I said that uh so she she got a
list of about
1,200
funds in LA and New York. And I said
what you're going to do is
uh you're going to ask for the job, but
you're going to have two pages behind
that giving them a stock tip.
You're going to give them a pitch that
you have written up of a company that if
they invest in
they're likely to make money.
We sent the 1,200 letters, physical
letters, okay? All physical letters, no
email, right?
And um
there's a 85-year-old guy in New York
who gets the letter. He's retired, the
fund doesn't exist, it shouldn't have
been on the list, whatever. But he has a
friend in LA. He says, "Hey Jamie, why
don't aren't you looking for an
analyst?"
And this girl, she seems to have the
perfect kind of background. And she ends
up with a higher salary
than anyone who went to Berkeley
business school
with a much higher GPA than hers.
I was thinking about
what you're saying um and I made a video
the other day which I think is somewhat
relevant where I was trying to describe
to people how to send a message to
someone
in a way that creates impact. And the
framework that I came up with, which
I'll I'll well animate on the screen,
but is basically
so this axis here is the signal versus
noise of the channel you're using. Mhm.
So a high signal channel is one where it
gets past the PA. Mhm. It's less
saturated, less busy.
A high noise channel, which is the
opposite, would be sending a an email to
the like press@yourcompany.com's
email. So like everyone goes through
that path and it doesn't get doesn't get
to the person. And then the other axis
is basically the emotional impact of the
message.
>> Yeah. So, high emotional impact is doing
what you said, put a stock tip in there,
you're going to stand out, they're going
to think you're a little bit strange, or
what you said about like shortening the
name, that creates more emotional
resonance. And then low would just be
Yeah. AI slop, copy and paste jargon.
And really like the most successful
messages are up here. Absolutely.
>> High like high signal channel, high
emotionally resonant. Absolutely. But
what happens is people send loads of
messages down here
and then they get depressed and
demotivated and say no one's getting
back to me.
>> Yeah.
Like Michael Jordan used to say, you
miss every shot you don't take.
Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
So, basically, it is
I mean, I think one of the things about
entrepreneurs is that you need to have
resilience.
Um
like for me
for me, what the data I was looking for
is that
if I send 5,000 letters, okay, which
takes 25 weeks, 6 months,
how many
meetings does that
end up in? If that ends up with
10 meetings or 20 meetings,
well, now I have my number, right? And
then the second part is the meeting to
close ratio, right? And so, to me as a
math guy,
I I was just interested to know that
it's not zero. Okay, I just want to make
sure.
And I could see very quickly it was not
zero. Literally within the first 2 3
months I could see it's not zero.
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I think one of the the most formative
experiences you can give your children,
which I got at 16, through through 16 to
19 years old, which is what I did, was
working in cold tele sales.
So, my job at 16 years old was to call
people at 9:00 p.m. cold and try and get
them to buy windows and doors. And it
taught me the exact lesson you're
describing, which is yes, 80% of people
tell you to off. 98% say no, but it
doesn't matter. I always say like 80 80%
told me to off. 15% said it in a
nice way, and then 5% were at least
receptive to what I had to say. Yeah.
Maybe 1% close, but when you understand
that, you think of life through that
lens.
And actually, Stephen I had the almost
same experience. So,
my father was an entrepreneur. He was
really smart at identifying what I call
offering gaps, like things that should
exist in the world, but didn't.
And he would get these businesses off
the ground with no money. I saw him do
it repeatedly.
His downfall was he was very aggressive
in growing the businesses. And so, they
didn't have staying power. There was
almost no equity, always very leveraged.
So, I he went bankrupt eight or nine
times, right? Repeatedly.
When I was um
when I was about 11 or 12 years old, my
brother and I,
we were like his board of directors,
okay? Because he had nobody else.
The three of us would sit down at night
to figure out how to make the business
last for one more day.
Okay, everything's caving in, the
creditors are craving in, the business
is collapsing. How do we make it
work for one more day?
And then the next night we'd get
together and how do we get it work for
one more day again, right?
At 16, and I don't know why my dad did
this, but I'm so grateful that he did.
He was at that time he had a gold
jewelry factory in Dubai.
And he was
going cold calling
in person to jewelry shops to buy his
jewelry that he was manufacturing.
So he took me with him on many of these
trips. And I was 16 just like you,
right? So we would
take the taxi from Dubai to Abu Dhabi.
And now there's all these
gold shops.
He doesn't know any of them, right? And
he's going one after the other after the
other after the other.
And I would be stunned that
fifth shop he makes a sale. Yeah. And
it's a very small sale because he has no
trust and all that, but he's made the
sale.
Then I noticed that after 3 months we go
back to that same shop we made the
little sale to.
The guy brings out tea.
He there's a there's a lot of chemistry,
bigger order.
And then I saw the orders increase,
right? And then he's continuing to do
that. I I went with him to Doha, Qatar.
Uh Qatar. And again, the same thing. It
was like, you know,
I saw how those doors opened. Mhm. And I
saw how it didn't matter to him when
they closed.
That was irrelevant to him.
You know? Really interesting new way to
think about it because what you're
saying there is actually, when you get
that one yes, it's actually a seed
that's being planted that can grow into
something We just care about the ratio
and the number. Okay, so what effort did
it take? Like I was saying, if I send
5,000 letters and I get 20 meetings,
it's awesome. Mhm. I mean, that's a
fantastic ratio because one sale is
going to get me about 200,000 or
300,000. It's a significant amount,
right? I mean, so that I don't need
large numbers. And But the lifetime
value of that can huge. Yeah, yeah. I
mean, I mean,
uh these uh these relationships I got
then, they're still with me. Mhm. You
know, so it's uh it's it's like forever.
Here's a philosophical way to think
about that for just everybody, which is
you can remember probably conversations
you had in your life that you thought
were totally inconsequential, but then 8
years later, that seed became a business
relationship. The example I always give
is when I was 14, I applied for The
Apprentice. They did this like junior
apprentice on the BBC. And it's a long
story. 35,000 kids in London and across
the UK applying. I met a kid in the line
while I was queuing up for my audition,
and he said to me, "Oh, my dad runs this
um
500 million-dollar company." And I was
like, "Yeah, whatever. Like, not
interested." I went through the
auditions. I didn't end didn't end up
getting on in the show for whatever
reason,
but then I ended up cuz we were waiting
in the queue that day, I was really nice
to this kid and I added him on Facebook.
5 years later, I get a message on
Facebook. Hey, 5 years later, although I
didn't get on the show, which would have
got me about $25,000 investment in my
company if I'd won,
5 years later, I'm working on a startup.
That kid from the line says, "Hey, um my
dad has sold his business for a billion
dollars, and I've been watching you on
Facebook for the last 5 years. My dad
would love to meet you." It was a an
Indian family, the Aluwalias. They'd
sold a business called Euro Car Parts.
They took me to London when I was
literally so broke I was like
shoplifting food to feed myself. And his
dad invested double what I would have
won on the show into my business. Um and
I would and that always reminded me that
like every conversation
that I have is like planting a seed that
at any point in my life Sure. could turn
into something.
Well,
I mean, you know, um I always bring up
Adam Grant's book uh
Givers and Takers. I don't know if
you've seen that.
All humans on the planet fall into one
of three categories.
They are either a giver
or a taker
or a matcher.
Okay? These are There are no other
categories of humans. There's just these
are the three categories.
Now, the matchers
are relatively simple to understand.
Their
mental framework is
if Stephen does me a favor
I'm going to try to do something similar
for him.
You know, one-to-one. They can do the
matching in the math in their heads.
The takers
who you don't have anything to ever do
with are trying to scam and screw
everyone.
And always take and never give. Okay?
The takers basically go nowhere. Okay?
And if you have any takers in your life,
get rid of them. Okay?
Now, the givers
what the givers do is the givers
um are not focused on what comes back to
them.
They just want to help you.
They want to help humanity.
And what end up happening is
the universe conspires to help them.
Mhm. So, the givers
become the most successful.
Everyone is trying to give to them
even though they're not asking for it.
So, basically
when we and that's the book that Adam
Grant Grant wrote, Givers and Takers, is
one of the mental models with is a great
mental model to have, is to be a giver.
Don't play math games, you know, always
try to make sure the other guy gets the
better end of the deal.
And just keep going through your life
that way, and that goodwill
will compound.
And it will take care of itself.
And the time horizon, you don't worry
about the time horizon.
>> You're not doing it for getting
something back. That's the key. You're
not doing any mathematics, like I'm
going to do you're not calculating.
I'm going to do this so XYZ happens.
You're just doing it, end of story.
I was sat with my girlfriend last night.
She runs a breath work business, so
she's essentially a solopreneur.
Um, and she's at that point where she's
trying to scale. In fact, I just meet so
many I think I I actually ran a survey
before. And the vast majority of
business owners are in that SME
category, that small small sort of
business category. The back startups are
the backbone of our economy, but they
they come to me with the same problem,
which is
maybe I started as an individual, I've
got high demand, and now I'm a
bottleneck. And I don't know how to get
out of being like a freelancer. How does
the freelancer become an agency? And the
the thing I was chatting to my
girlfriend about last night was um
the step she hasn't taken yet is to hire
someone exceptional.
And so many founders come to me, these
early stage founders are like
like I I I my customers like me, I do it
better, I don't trust anybody. I I
wondered if you had a like a mental
model for thinking about
>> the thing is, so if you look at people
like Elon Musk and Steve Jobs,
they believe their number one job is
recruiting.
The first 3,000 people who joined SpaceX
all personally interviewed by Elon.
Just think about that. Those are 3,000
hires.
Think about the number of interviews to
get the 3,000 hires, okay?
He
did not believe there was any other way.
And
what Steve Jobs used to say is that
A players
want to work with A players.
The moment you start introducing B
players,
B players will hire B and C players.
They will never hire an A player. So,
your downhill the journey's already
started the moment you get a B player.
And so,
as an entrepreneur,
you know, we have a lot of demands on
our time, right?
But, recruiting
has to be at the top.
And you've got to be willing to spend
inordinate amounts of time
on recruiting.
Okay? And um
There's you know, there are tools that
you can use. We use uh There's a company
called Caliper we use for pre-employment
testing.
And the thing is that
between the genetics of a human and the
first five years of the life experience,
who they are,
their traits are hard-coded.
That is not going to change from 5 to
95, okay? So, it's not like you're going
to change a human. Human is the way they
are, okay? Now, these pre-employment
testing tests
can get you data that you're not going
to get in an interview.
One of my companies I'm building at the
moment is called culturetest.com.
It's exactly this. Okay. Um
I mean, you're just like preaching
preaching to the choir here.
>> But, what I'm saying is that It It was
the most
>> we need to get really good at
recruiting. Yeah, it's my absolute
absolute obsession. And what I found out
is that, funnily enough, from doing
these culture tests. So, I've kind of
culture tested tens of thousands of
people in the general population now.
And the shocking part was, just to give
you some context on what it does, it
benchmarks our best-performing people
and how they make their decisions. The
assumption here is that culture isn't
the thing you come up with at the
offsite. Culture is how you would behave
on Christmas Eve when you get a text
message from a client. Like, what you do
there is your company culture.
Basically, it creates these questions
which simulate optimal culture in that
team.
And it puts you in that scenario and
says, "What do you do?"
This is probably a good point to talk to
you guys about culturetest.com, which is
the website we're about to launch for
anyone who has the responsibility of
hiring someone, which is probably
everybody listening. One bad hire can
destroy your entire company. So, we made
culturetest.com
so that you guys at home can spot those
red flags and avoid those hires that
might be the end of your business.
Culture Test will make you your own
personalized culture test so that you
can screen every single person that
wants to be in your team and your
current team members and people that
have left to see how they align. Just go
to culturetest.com
and put your email address in. And the
minute we launch, I'm going to send you
an email so you can try it before
anybody else.
So, recruiting is really important. And
I think the other thing is uh
we're willing to
hire people
who may not do things as well as we do.
But actually also what I have also found
is I have so many people on my team who
are better than me.
You know, they're better at many of
these things because it's not my natural
bent to do those jobs. So, that's really
when you get a huge bang for the buck
is you end up with team players that are
way better than you.
How do you think about firing people?
Cuz this is the other thing I've found
is slow, fire fast.
Founders really struggle with the fire
fast thing. And uh
it is very important
to fire fast.
I think fire fast is more important than
hire slow.
And you're doing the person a a service
because they may be exceptional in
another role
at another place.
So,
you are helping them
try to find that.
If
>> And you're helping your other team
members.
If I was trying to work for your
companies, it what is the one
non-negotiable? Like what is the trait
that I would demonstrate where you would
immediately not even consider me?
The most important is integrity.
Mhm. You know, I mean
we we want three traits, right? We want
intelligence,
we want integrity, and we want
willingness to work hard.
Right? And none of these three are
really negotiable. And what does
integrity mean in your definition? Well,
it's absolute honesty. It's pretty
simple.
You know, it's black and white.
And you conduct yourself with the
highest level of ethical standards.
So, on all fronts, when you're dealing
with a customer or
internally or externally, it's the moral
standards need to be very high.
When you think about your wealth, how
much of it has come from building
businesses versus being a great investor
of the capital that you managed to make
from those businesses?
I think currently most has come from
the investing side.
You're very well known for being a
really excellent investor over many many
many many many years.
I'll put a graph on the screen that I
found which I think shows
the returns of your investment strategy
versus the the Dow Jones. This graph,
Have you seen that one before?
I haven't seen it this way, but people
put up all kinds of things. Yeah. I
mean, all this says is that you're
extremely good at investing.
So, I want to know if I if I'm in
starting my investing career, I'm
working in a 9-5 job at the moment. I've
got a couple of thousand dollars in my
my bank account. How should I be
thinking about investing? Should I be
investing?
So,
there are um
there are three things that matter
in terms of getting a great outcome with
investing.
Um
starting capital,
how much the amount you start with,
length of the runway,
how long
are you going to invest the money, Mhm.
and the rate of return.
Okay, so
before I answer your question,
I want to
tell you a story.
So,
and this is a true story.
Um in 1623,
in New York, the
Native American Indians in New York who
owned the island of Manhattan,
the Dutch settlers wanted to buy the
island.
And so, they went to the Indians and
said, "We'd like to buy the island of
Manhattan. Great natural
harbors. It can be a great place for
us."
And the Indians and the Dutch reached an
agreement to sell the island of
Manhattan for $23.
And when people hear that, they think,
"Oh, the Indians got taken."
You know,
island of Manhattan for $23 is
ridiculous.
But, let's say
let's say the Indians had a trust
officer who they said, "Invest this $23
for the benefit of the tribe
and try to do a decent job, right?
Now,
there's something known as the rule of
72.
And the rule of 72 is a is a very
important rule and I wish they would
teach it more in high schools and
elementary school.
It tells us how long it takes money to
double and it's a kind of a mathematical
hack. So, for example,
if I'm going to get a 7% return
and I do 72 / 7,
that's approximately 10.
And at the 7% return, it's going to take
10 years for the money to double. 7%
compounded will take 10 years.
If I have a 10% return,
it will take 7 years.
72 / 10 is 7. If I have a 15% return,
it will take 5 years. 72 / 15 is 5,
approximately.
And if I have a 20% return, it'll take 3
and 1/2 years.
So, this rule of 72 is a nice hack and
it's very important to know how long
money takes to double because then we
can start doing a lot of math in our
heads.
So, when we look at these Indians with
the $23, if they were getting a 7 7%
return,
it would become $46 in 10 years.
And then it would become $92
in 20 years.
And
$184 in 30 years
and so on.
Now, if you go 100 years,
right? It's 10 periods of 10.
And 10 periods of 10 is 2 to the power
of 10.
And 2 to the power of 10 is 1,024.
So, we throw away the 24 because we
don't want to complicate the math.
So,
at 7%
for 100 years,
you would have 1,000 times what you
started with.
And this is why because compounding
becomes non-linear, people have a hard
time getting their hands around it. So,
Non-linear meaning? It's not going up in
a straight curve. It's going up in a
Hockey stick.
>> Hockey stick club, yeah. So,
in 1723, the Indians would have 23,000.
It had gone up a thousand.
And then if they continue at the 7% in
1823, they would have 23 million.
And in 1923, they would have 23 billion.
And in 2023,
they'd have 23 trillion.
Okay? Now,
the entire wealth of every man, woman,
and child in the United States is 150
trillion.
1/6 of that is not
undeveloped land in Manhattan.
So, if the Indians had invested at 7% a
year for the last 400 years,
they would have more money than owning
the land.
So, they were not taken.
They were given a fair deal.
But they just didn't have a good trust
officer who could actually make it
happen for them.
So, the
magic of compounding
is that we started with $23.
And we end up with 23 trillion.
Without having a great rate of return.
It's just an okay 7% is just okay. It's
not great. It's not bad, but it's okay.
Now, if you go back a hundred years. So,
we started at 1623, go back a hundred
years to 1523.
We had 2300 cents in 1623.
2300 cents? $23 is 2300 cents.
>> Oh, okay. If If they'd got it Just
convert it to cents instead of dollars,
right? Now, if you
make it 1/1000 of that. So, just so I'm
clear here. So, if you're saying if you
went back 100 years from that point and
you gave them just 23 cents.
>> If you gave them 2 cents. If you gave
them 2 cents. 2.3 cents to be exact.
But, if you just gave them 2 cents Yeah.
100 years later, they would be $20.
If you gave them 2.3 cents, 100 years
later they'd be $23 and now it would be
the 23 trillion, right? So,
what I'm trying to say is that
if the runway is long enough,
the starting capital doesn't matter.
Even the rate of return doesn't matter.
If the runway is long enough. Now, so
when people are thinking about
investing,
they have to keep a few things in mind.
The first thing is spend less than you
earn.
So,
always try to
save the first dollar rather than the
last dollar.
So, if you are making $50,000 a year,
put 5,000 into savings to start with and
then
do the rest of your expenses after that.
Now,
it's very important when we saw with
this example, you start young.
So, when people start working at 22 or
23, whenever they start working,
they have to be saving then.
Because that early money at 22
can compound for 50 years.
And that's what we want. So, we don't
need to do heroic things
with finding the next Nvidea or whatever
else.
We can just put it into an index
and the important thing is spend less
than you earn and keep putting that 5,
7, 10,000 every year
into the savings. Don't go have a
vacation on Hawaii with it.
Let it keep compounding and just put it
into a broad index
and we don't really
So, for someone who has never invested
before, Yeah.
>> which would probably be the majority of
the audience, how do we simplify even
further in terms of just put it in an
index? What does that mean? So,
basically,
you could open an account at
Fidelity or Interactive Brokers or
Robinhood, any of these places. You
could open a brokerage account for very
little money. And there's lots of them
in every country. Yeah, and then you
could just uh
ask them to give to buy you the S&P 500
index, for example. And they will get
you invested in that.
>> And the S&P 500 is basically the top 500
companies in
>> It's the Yeah, the 500 dominant
businesses in the US.
Like Nvidia's in there and Microsoft and
Apple and so on. And you're going to get
your 10% a year if it if the trend holds
over the last century. The S&P has
plenty of periods where it does nothing.
Uh it's somewhat overheated right now.
Uh but I think if you have a long enough
time of time horizon and you're dollar
cost averaging in, it's perfectly okay.
Uh
what you could also do as an alternative
is buy Berkshire Hathaway.
So, that's a stock, BRKB. So, you could
again tell these people that just put it
into Berkshire Hathaway. It's like an
index.
And And again, it's like set it and
forget it. You don't need to think about
the investing side. You
focus on yellow,
okay? And keep putting this little money
away on the side,
and it's going to compound. And so, at
18,
if you put away $5,000,
and you fast forward to when you're 68,
50 years later,
right?
Now,
if if you got a
10% return on that money. Every year?
Let's say.
Every 7 years it would double.
Okay, 72 / 10 is 7.
50 years
is seven doubles. 7 * 7 is 49.
And
2 to the power of 7
is 128.
Okay.
So, we can throw away the 28. Keep it
simple.
You're going to have 100 times what you
started with.
So, the 5,000 at 18 is going to be
500,000.
Okay.
At 19, if you put money away, that's
another 500,000.
20, you might have 10,000 you can put
in.
So, you can start seeing that over a
lifetime,
you know, you're going to be
having too much money.
As you might have been able to tell, I'm
absolutely fascinated by the psychology
behind high-performing sports teams. I
think it started with my love for Sir
Alex Ferguson as a Manchester United
fan. So, when I was told about a new
Netflix series that covers the rise of
the Dallas Cowboys, it immediately
piqued my interest. And this isn't
because I'm mad about American football.
I'm not. I don't even watch it. But I do
know about the Dallas Cowboys, and for a
lot of Texans, they're much more than a
sports team. I watched this series, and
it is absolutely
brilliant. It centers on Jerry Jones, an
oil businessman with no football
background, who bought the Cowboys in
the late '80s and transformed them into
the most valuable sports franchise in
the world. It's all about how one guy
assembled a powerhouse team in the 1990s
made up of legendary players and
coaches, and through fearless
decision-making led his team to three
Super Bowl victories. And I really
enjoyed it, and I think you might, too.
Check out America's Team: The Gambler
and His Cowboys, which is streaming
right now only on Netflix. And they now
sponsor this podcast.
I've just invested millions into this
and become a co-owner of the company.
It's a company called KetoneIQ.
And the story is quite interesting. I
started talking about ketosis on this
podcast and the fact that I'm very low
carb, very very low sugar, and my body
produces ketones which have made me
incredibly focused, have improved my
endurance, have improved my mood, and
have made me more capable at doing what
I do here. And because I was talking
about it on the podcast, a couple of
weeks later, these showed up on my desk
in my HQ in London. These little shots.
And oh my god, the impact this had on my
ability to articulate myself, on my
focus, on my workouts, on my mood, on
stopping me crashing throughout the day
was so profound that I reached out to
the founders of the company, and now I'm
a co-owner of this business. I highly
highly recommend you look into this. I
highly recommend you look at the science
behind the product. If you want to try
it for yourself, visit ketone.com/steven
for 30% off your subscription order. And
you'll also get a free gift with your
second shipment. That's
ketone.com/steven.
And I'm so honored that once again a
company I own can sponsor my podcast.
You've been referred to as the the
Dhandho investor. And uh I've I've got a
book here which you wrote called
the Dhandho investor.
What what
What does this word Dhandho mean? And
why do they call you the Dhandho
investor?
Dhandho is actually a word from Gujarat,
which is on the on the western coast of
India, where Gandhi came from. They're
extremely astute business people. And
Dhandho,
if you translate it directly in
Gujarati,
it means business.
But it doesn't really mean business.
What it means is it's a way of doing
business
where
the downside is non-existent.
We already discussed how Mr. Branson
is a Dhandho investor.
He had no downside.
Uh
Mr. Gates was a Dhandho investor. He had
no downside. Mr. Walton was a Dhandho
investor. They had no downside. So, all
of these people embarked on businesses,
built huge fortunes
without taking risk. And so, the Dhandho
investor was written from the
perspective of
how can we minimize risk
while keeping the returns intact. You
use this example of the Patels. Mhm.
What is What is that story? The Patels
uh
went to Uganda
more than 100 years ago, maybe close to
130 years ago. It was a family? It's a
ethnic group in India.
>> And so, this ethnic group came to Uganda
to build the railroad.
And
but they're very savvy business people.
And
over the course of the last 100 odd
years, uh when they were in Uganda,
through their Dhandho methods of doing
business, they became very successful
entrepreneurs.
And they controlled large parts of the
Ugandan economy. And Idi Amin came to
power in Uganda in the 1970s.
And he said Africa is for Africans.
So, what he did is he threw all the
Patels out.
And he nationalized all their assets.
So, now the Patels
were stateless.
The US took them in.
The UK took some in. Canada took some of
them in.
And when they landed in the US, they
basically really didn't have any skills
that would allow them to get good jobs,
white-collar jobs in the US.
And
what a few of them started to do was
they realized
that if they bought a motel
a small 10 or 20 room motel
uh the family could live in one or two
of the rooms and
they could use the money they got out
and get a bank loan.
And run the motel. Now, motels are very
labor-intensive businesses. So, what
they did is when a Patel took over a
motel
they fired all the staff.
And the family took over all the jobs,
you know, the cleaning and front desk
and everything else, right?
And the Patels are vegetarians
and they have very they live they live a
very simple life. So,
when a Patel took over a motel in an
area, what they were able to do is they
were able to undercut the prices
of all the other motels in the area
because they have no labor.
They have no payroll, they have no
workers' comp, none of those things.
And so, they were if everyone else is
charging $25 a night, they're charging,
you know, 19 a night. So, their
occupancy was higher than everyone else.
And they saved their money and then what
they would do is buy the next motel.
Send the nephew to run it.
And then buy the next motel.
And this started happening in the early
'70s and when you fast forward to today
80% of all the motels in the US
are under Patel ownership.
80%. So,
the Patels make up
.1%
of the US population.
Indians make up about
little over 1%. Maybe 1.2, 1.3%.
Just 1/10 of that is the Patels. And
this 0.1% population
is controlling 80% of the motels in the
country.
And um
it's because of the Dhandho way.
So, if I want to steal from the Dhandho
way, you told me it's good to be a
copier.
Um what are the principles of the
Dhandho way that I need to be thinking
about? Cuz I think there was
Was there nine? Yeah, there was nine
principles in total in the book.
>> Well, the most important one is heads I
win,
tails I don't lose much.
Everything we discussed today, Stephen,
is heads I win, tails I don't lose much.
When I started my business,
when Bill Gates started, when Sam Walton
started, and when Richard Branson
started,
that was the formula.
If they won, they would win big. And if
they lost, they'd lose nothing.
So, everything has to be in business
about risk reduction.
Everything has to be about free lunches.
We love free lunches. Okay, so we always
have to think about how do we get this
done
without capital, without risk, free
lunches.
Do you think there's an opportunity for
people, cuz everybody's at the moment
thinking about AI and technology and
these like really advanced um
new innovations as an opportunity, but
does that create an opportunity in the
boring?
In the motel? In the laundry mat?
Yeah, so, you know, the reality is so
entrepreneurship is not studied much in
business schools because there's nobody
going to give you a consulting project
for
studying entrepreneurs.
If we really study startups
in the US or actually anywhere in the
world,
99.99%
of startups
are non-venture backed.
What What does that mean? What I What I
mean by that is those are your
laundromat, your Chinese restaurant,
your
you know, eBay seller,
whatever, Amazon seller, so on, right?
The small businesses.
None of those companies were
formed because of venture capital. So,
the media focuses on all the venture
capital-led businesses.
And so, people think that oh, if I have
to do a startup, I got to do something
in technology.
Well, that's like 1/10 of 1% or less.
You can ignore it. You don't need to
really worry about it.
Uh
the important thing
is to be an observer
and to look at uh what what uh my dad
would call offering gaps.
So, let me explain an offering gap,
right? So,
let's say
there's a town We Let's call it town A.
Town A,
there's a barber shop in town A.
Okay, and the barber's
one of many barbers doing well, etc.
There's another town about 30 miles
away, town B, which also has barbers.
They're also doing fine.
There's a new township coming up in the
middle of these two towns called town C.
Town C doesn't have much of a
population, but it's growing fast.
So, the barber in town A goes to see
what the all the hoopla about town C is
all about. So, he makes a takes a trip
there, sees that there's some increase
in population, people are moving in, and
he notices
there's no barber shops.
Why would there be any barber shop?
Because it's brand new, right?
So, he's thinking, how do I do this
without taking risk?"
And what he does is he rents a
subleases a small storefront,
buys some used barber equipment,
and then decides that one day a week
he's going to go into that town and cut
hair every Wednesday.
He puts up a note board saying, "I'm
available Wednesdays."
And
what happens is
people start coming in.
They come in because they have no
choice. If you don't go to this barber,
you're going to spend half an hour
driving to one of the other two towns.
Now, he normally charges 30 bucks for a
haircut.
But here, he doesn't need to charge 30
because there's an opportunity cost of
the time you're saving. So, he can
charge 45.
So,
he's charging 45 over here, and then
when he's in his own town, he's charging
30. Now, what he what he notices is
Wednesdays are filled up.
So, he says, "Tuesday and Wednesday."
Okay, and gradually what ends up
happening is that that business
is full-time,
and he's making 45 bucks an hour per
haircut.
But the nature of capitalism is more
barbers are going to show up.
So, the second barber comes in, the
third barber comes in. Eventually, the
haircut there is going to be 30 bucks.
It's going to neutralize. But in the
meanwhile,
he's doubled his business.
Right?
What risk did he take?
So,
going into town C was addressing an
opportunity gap.
When Howard Schultz started Starbucks,
he saw an offering gap.
He thought that what
Italians love about cafes
might be what Americans love, too.
Didn't exist, right?
And he went and did it. You know that
barber that moves into town C first and
they're really having a great time
because there's no competition.
One of your points when you're talking
about the Dandam method is this idea of
creating a durable moat. It's point four
of the nine. So So sometimes what
happens is
that
you start a business. Every business
starts off without a moat.
What is a moat?
We have a castle.
A knight in charge of the castle
to keep the invaders away. And one of
the ways to keep the invaders away is
you put a moat of water around the
castle.
So when you put a moat of water around
the castle, it makes it harder for
anyone to take the castle.
And a business with a moat around it is
a business that competitors
will have a difficult time take this
taking business away from. So what can
happen with our barber in town C?
Humans are creatures of habits.
We don't like to change our barber every
month.
We like the same barber.
So if he's competent and good,
what's going to end up happening is that
his client base will stay with him. What
about loyalty points? I was just struck
the other day when I was shopping in LA
at Erewhon, which is a supermarket here
in LA, and I had someone who'd
recommended to me on the plane, which
actually goes to your point about
actually give a great product cuz an
airline hostess on my flight over here
went, "Oh, you're you're on keto diet.
You need to go check out Erewhon." I got
to So that's the recommendation
>> 10x more powerful than any ad or
anything else they could run.
>> And I went there Yeah. when I landed cuz
I needed a supermarket and didn't know
the place. But then interestingly, what
I was at the checkout yesterday after my
second visit, the lady at the checkout
goes, "Hey, are you are you an Erewhon
member?" And I was like, "Erewhon
member?" And she was it does cost She
went She was honest. She went, "It costs
money, but here's what you get. She goes
on this order today, you would have got
10% off this entire order. It's
expensive that one. And she goes, and we
give you a drink every month. She listed
all the things off.
I signed up and bought the membership to
L1. I tell you now,
I'm not going anywhere else.
I don't know what it is, but now that
I'm a member and I have the app, I'm not
going anywhere else. Well, that's Now,
that's the hack that Amazon did, right?
With Prime.
And um
two or three years ago, I was uh I was
seated at dinner next to Bill Gates. You
know, my middle name is Forrest Gump.
These things happen once in a while.
And Bill is Bill is describing to me how
the business model of Costco
and the business model of Amazon is
illegal. Okay? So, I said, "Why is it
illegal?" He said,
"When you
When you put a membership fee,
what what you're doing to the consumer
is you're locking them in.
Mhm. Which means the consumer is no
longer going after the lowest price
because there is a distortion in their
behavior." Yeah. Okay? So, now the FTC
doesn't believe it's illegal, but Bill
Gates does. And I was just thinking,
"Well, that's because you're competitive
with Amazon." Mhm. You know? Yeah, yeah,
yeah.
That Prime thing with Amazon is super
smart.
>> Yeah, and and that was taken from
Costco.
Oh, okay. I get it.
>> But basically, yeah, the lock-in
lock-in is very powerful.
What one company I wanted to talk to you
about was Apple.
Because Apple I find is a really
interesting company. You You talked
about being a copycat, kind of arriving
later to the party with new things.
They've kind of been a story of both
sides of the equation. They've been
innovative, it seems, especially under
Steve Jobs. And more recently,
I mean, they were like copying other
people, but now I'm not even sure what
they are. Well, so Apple is a very
unusual company in that
everything emanated from one guy. Mhm.
Okay.
And that one guy has been gone for a
long time. And if you look at Apple,
basically nothing new has come out
since he left.
We don't have a Steve Jobs at Apple.
We
And and the same thing happened at
Disney.
You know, they had to buy Pixar
because there was no Disney anymore. Mr.
Disney was gone.
And so, Apple actually I I find
somewhat risky.
As an investment? Yes, because
if the form factor, so currently humans
walk around with a brick in their
pockets or in their hands.
At some point that form factor is going
to change. It may be integrated into
something we wear or some other more
ergonomic
situation.
That may or may not be Apple.
And in fact, more likely not to be
Apple. It's probably some guy in a
garage somewhere.
And so, if they are smart enough to
find the guy in the garage early enough
and buy them, they're okay.
And bring them in as the next Steve
Jobs, that's okay.
But
even there the odds are low.
What does this say to you about
founders?
The specialness of founders. Are they a
unique animal?
Or can you swap them out and still be
tremendously successful? Well, I would I
would say that
there's
there are a lot of elements of luck.
So, first of all, founders are all great
at what I call offering gaps, right?
They find something that the world
doesn't have, that needs, etc. and they
go after it.
Sometimes what happens with these
offering gaps is a moat gets built.
Right? Someone starts Visa, it becomes a
multi company or American Express and so
on. And and it
perseveres and scales. Like Apple with
their ecosystem, the closed ecosystem.
But
100% of businesses
eventually will go to zero.
And so
it very well could be that a business
could last for 50, 100, 200 years, 150
years.
Uh could last well past the founder's
lifetime.
Those are businesses which were built
with a lot of principles and lot of core
great core values. You know, the founder
of IKEA
every decision he took
was with a 500-year view.
How many businesses think with a
500-year view?
And
IKEA, you know, I was I was uh studying
IKEA. Some very remarkable things about
it. First of all
he never ever took debt.
Every single store they built, they
built out of retained earnings and cash.
He never took debt.
And I've studied business failure quite
a bit. The single biggest reason why
businesses fail is leverage.
They owe people money and they can't pay
it back and then they're gone.
So
IKEA has never taken debt.
If you never take debt as a retailer,
you're going to grow slower. All right?
You're going to keep
uh kind of bringing in the cash, but
it's a very solid foundation.
Because
it's it's on a rock solid balance sheet.
Mhm. And and such. And um
his second principle was
no two IKEA stores can be the same.
So, what he said is that whenever we are
opening a new IKEA store,
there has to be some innovation
that is going into that store
that does not exist in our previous
stores.
Because he says that if I don't keep
innovating,
I'm done.
And so if you don't notice it because we
think all the IKEA's are the same,
but actually if you study them and look
at when they were when they were built,
etc., you start seeing these
these incremental changes that they're
making. That's a really interesting idea
that I can implement
into everything that I do, which is just
make sure that every podcast I do,
there's one new experiment or innovation
or every piece of work you do, whatever
team you're in, is just to run out one
experiment and every
>> Absolutely. But you have to make it
measurable, right? Or else it's not a
experiment. So
And you also talk about making fewer big
infrequent bets.
Yes. Who who's that relevant for and in
what context? So
one of the things that Warren Buffett
says, he says that you got a punch card
which you can punch 20 times in your
lifetime.
And each time you buy a stock,
it's one punch that's gone. So what what
Warren is saying is
if there was a rule which said
that you cannot buy more than 20 stocks
in your whole life,
what would happen is you'd be very
thoughtful
about what you bought.
Okay, and chances are those decisions
might be good decisions because
uh you only have 19 left and then you
only have 18 left, etc.
So
in in venture investing,
a very small sliver of companies that
venture capitalists invest in
do well.
Right? There's a high
high burnout rate.
And if we look at the stock market,
4% of listed companies
generate 90% of the return.
So, most
companies that we may think about
investing in
are likely not to do well
for us. It's a 96% odds
that that's why the index is so
important. Is when you buy the index,
you bought that 4%.
And if you go pick stocks,
you have one in 25 chance of getting it
one of those 4%. You said earlier the
punch card analogy of 20 things in the
punch card. You got to pick 20 in your
life. If you only had three of three to
five things that you you would bet or
back now,
which I think is actually kind of what
you do, what would those things be?
Well, I mean, uh so
I'm trying to resist going to specific
big names.
>> Yeah. Because I think that would hurt
people more than help people. Okay, I
mean, it's fair. What I
would prefer that people do is focus on
the other two variables, which is
the amount you're saving and the length
of the runway and focus on the index.
So, I I I think that it's it's kind of
like saying, I want to be a great AI
developer because it's the way it will
to be a great AI developer is going to
take time.
It does the nature of the situation.
What do you think about these people
that day trade? Cuz so many young
people, specifically men, are being
sucked in by these adverts that you can
day trade your way to wealth. It's not
good.
I think I think it's uh
the broker's going to make all the
money.
Robinhood will do well.
Not you.
Do you think anyone can make loads of
money as a long-term day trader?
I look at it this way,
if you study the
Forbes 400, the 400 richest people in
the in the in the world actually,
I don't see any day traders in there.
One of the last things I want to speak
to you about is this idea of um
circling the wagons. Yes. What does
circling the wagons mean?
Warren Buffett
um said that over um
50-year
period of running Berkshire Hathaway,
he's made hundreds of investments.
And only 12
have moved the needle for Berkshire
Hathaway.
So,
it's the same three or four percent rule
where
if we say that Warren made
300 investments, he probably made more
than 300, but let's say he made 300
decisions.
Only 12
have resulted in
what we see as Berkshire Hathaway today.
And the important thing was not
the buy decision on those 12.
The important thing was never selling
them.
So,
circle the wagons is a term that comes
from
the 19th century when these pioneers
were moving west, the wagon trails
moving west,
and the native Indians would attack or
bandits would attack these wagon trails.
So, what they would do is they would put
themselves in a circle. Mhm. They would
circle the wagons, then defend that
circle as best they could with their
guns and so on. But the wagons being
circled was the best possible possible
way of trying to face off that attack.
So,
in effect, they circle the wagons around
the Crown Jewels. So, when I'm talking
about circle the wagons, what I'm saying
is that
in a lifetime of investing,
there are very few times when you're
going to actually have
a huge multibagger. What's that? A big
big winner.
You know, something that goes up 10x,
50x, 100x.
And what you want to do is you want to
effectively circle the wagons around
that idea, so it doesn't get sold.
So,
we are not going to know
before we invest
whether something is going to be a
multibagger or not.
But, we may figure it out after we own
it. Mhm. So,
after we we're only going to know a
business after we own it. We're not
going to know it before we own it. After
we own it,
we may understand the business well
enough to know that this is a great
business. And when we figure out it's a
great business,
you don't want to sell that.
When I meet people like you, I I'm
always so inspired because we spend a
lot of time thinking about the wins, the
great decisions. We've talked about
that. I've shown you the graph of your
great decisions. What is the worst ever
decision you made in terms of financial
performance? Well, I've had so many
zeros.
I mean, uh Or the one that got away. I
mean, uh
Yeah. so there are there's mistakes of
commission,
which is uh
things going to zero.
And there's mistakes of omission. The
mistakes of omission are
far
um far worse.
Okay? So, the biggest mistakes I have
made aren't the ones that have gone to
zero.
The biggest mistakes I've made are the
ones that I sold and I shouldn't have.
Where I should have circled the wagons
and I didn't.
And those have been very costly. Give me
one example.
Well, so of I think this was in about 13
years back, 2012. I invested in uh
company called Fiat Chrysler
Automobiles.
Um
basically it was uh coming out of
bankruptcy after
the financial crisis. They'd gotten rid
of all that debt and everything and the
stock was very cheap. It was about 5 or
6 billion dollars. Uh
the you could buy the whole business.
One of the things I didn't pay too much
attention to at the time was that 80% of
Ferrari
was inside Fiat Chrysler.
And they owned Ferrari, 80% of it. And
um
but they had many other assets which are
like they had the RAM trucks and Jeep
and
Maserati and so on.
And
when I looked at the business, I thought
the business was worth many times the 5
or 6 billion.
Even ignoring Ferrari.
And I was right. So, in the end, I made
several times my money.
And in 2017 or 2018, they took Ferrari
public. So, they actually then listed
the company.
And
um
it looked like that they had captured
all the value and so I sold. I used to
own approximately
1% of Ferrari as part of that purchase
that I'd made.
So, 80% of Ferrari was in this 5
billion-dollar company. Ferrari now has
a market cap of almost 100 billion.
And I
would have about a billion more
if I had not done that stupid thing.
So, I I made a
couple of hundred million on this whole
thing, but it would have been a lot
more. And all I needed to do was just
not sell it.
Do you deal in crypto at all? Do you
invest?
It's outside my competence. I don't
understand it.
>> I was going to say, one of the things I
notice about you that's quite rare for
someone that deals in bees, billions, is
you have a smile on your face.
You seem like a really genuinely happy
person.
Well, what would be the point of the
bees without being happy? A lot of
people aren't, as you know. Well, then
they've lost their way somewhere.
I mean
on a daily basis, I specifically ask
myself, how do I want to spend today?
And I focus on spending it not with the
focus on maximizing money.
I focus it with maximizing what Monish
loves.
And that changes all the time, but
that's the way it is, you know. What is
that?
Well, currently it's golf.
Like one of the things I really
struggled with today
was there wasn't going to be any golf.
So, I said, it's either Steven or golf.
Should I go to Steven or should I go for
golf? I said, you know what? Give the
arms a rest.
Let's go meet Steven. I'm glad you did.
We have a Oh, you probably just answered
this question. We have a tradition where
the last guest leaves a question for the
next, not knowing who they're leaving it
for. And the question left for you is,
if you could go anywhere right now,
instantly, where would you go?
I'd go to the golf course. Thank you so
much. Oh, it's my pleasure.
>> everything that you do. It's so
incredibly important, and I now know why
you're why people love listening to you
and learning from you, and it's because
you have this most remarkable ability to
tell deeply engaging stories. Thank you
so much.
This has always blown my mind a little
bit. 53% of you that listen to this show
regularly haven't yet subscribed to this
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If you like this show and you like what
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to do what we do. Thank you so much.
Ask follow-up questions or revisit key timestamps.
The video features Mohnish Pabrai, an investor and entrepreneur, discussing his 'Dhandho' investment philosophy and various mental models for life and business. He emphasizes minimizing risk, the power of cloning successful business models, the importance of listening to customers, and the magic of compounding interest. Pabrai shares practical advice on entrepreneurship, highlighting that one should focus on creating value, testing ideas, and maintaining discipline, while also touching upon recruiting, integrity, and the 'giver' mindset for long-term success.
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