90% of People Fail at Vibe Coding. Here's the Actual Reason: You're Skipping the Hard Part.
540 segments
Something clicked in the last couple of
weeks and the word I keep reaching for
is playfulness with AI, which is
probably not what you expect because the
AI discourse is super loud right now and
most of it to be honest is ominous. Jobs
are disappearing, deep fakes,
misinformation, existential risk, think
pieces that are anxious, comment
sections get angry. I'm not here to
dismiss that. The concerns are real and
we talk about them a fair bit on this
channel. But there's a different story
happening in parallel that we miss. It's
quieter. It's a little bit odd. And I
want to talk about that instead today.
So, vibe coding, which is using AI to
build software with natural language,
that's been possible since the earlier
part of 2025. But for most of the year,
it was still work. You had to fight the
tools. You had to babysit the AI through
the confusion. You had to debug weird
failures that made no sense. You had to
learn about databases and backend. The
friction was high enough that you had to
be serious about what you were building.
You wouldn't want to waste that effort
on something frivolous. What's shifted
in the last couple of weeks is not just
that the tools got better, although they
did. It's that the models hold context
longer. The agentic patterns have
matured. Builder platforms have gotten
more reliable. The real change is
downstream of all those individual
pieces. Right? It's like the Lego bricks
came together to make a set. The
friction has now dropped enough that
building software has stopped feeling
like work and started to feel like play.
And play produces very different things.
Last week, a service called Fable
started making the rounds. You upload a
photo of your pet and it generates a
Renaissance portrait with AI. Your dog
as a baroque duke, your cat as a Flemish
noble woman. This all sounds extremely
silly and it ships to you as a physical
print and it's ridiculous. It's
delightful and it's doing a This is not
an identify a market need and execute
story. This is a wouldn't it be funny if
story. Someone was playing. They built
the joke. The internet turned out to
have demand for it. And this is the part
that caught my attention. It's not the
economics of AI coding here. Although
the economics are real and we'll talk
about them elsewhere. The thing
underneath is that software has now
become cheap enough to make for fun and
people are making different things.
They're making weirder things, things
that come from play rather than
strategy, creative things. And
occasionally, because the internet is
vast and has appetite for nearly
anything interesting, one of those
playful things finds a huge audience,
just like Fable. The internet has always
been an infinite pool of demand. What's
new is that the cost of figuring out
that demand has collapsed. You can just
try things now. You can build the dumb
idea. You can see what happens. And if
nobody cares, all you did is lose a
weekend. And if they do care, hey, you
got something fun. There's a particular
kind of satisfaction that comes from
making something that works. You have an
idea. You figure out the pieces. At some
point, the thing you imagined becomes
something that exists because you made
it. People who build real things for a
living know this, right? Carpenters know
this. Cooks know this. I cook.
Designers, engineers. The material
varies, but the satisfaction is
recognizable. You had a vision. Now you
have a real thing. Now, for most of
software's history, this satisfaction
was gated behind years of specialized
training. The gap between I wish this
existed and I made it exist was way too
wide to cross casually. Most ideas ended
up dying in that gap. Not because they
were necessarily bad, but because the
activation energy was way too high. The
gate is open now. the bridge is
crossable and people are just walking
through and they're not just startup
founders looking for leverage. A lot of
us, frankly, I'm a vibe coder too, are
hobbyists. We're building things for fun
and we don't always have a business
model insight. Really, vibe coding is
the hobby out of 2025 and now into 2026
that nobody expected. A designer can
build a personal dashboard that shows
the phase of the moon. They can show
their Spotify listening stats. They can
show how many days until their next
vacation, and they can put it all
together in a way that's fun for them. A
retiree can automate their greenhouse
irrigation. Someone can make a browser
extension that does one absurd thing
perfectly, like log every time they find
an article that mentions cat grooming. A
friend can get a custom Telegram bot
that alerts them when concert tickets
drop. None of these are necessarily
businesses by themselves. They're just
projects. They're built for the
satisfaction of building. They're used
by the maker and maybe a few of their
friends. This is new. For most of
software's history, building required
enough specialized knowledge that it was
primarily professional. Hobbyist
programmers technically existed, but I
code for fun was a very, very niche
identity and it was not a casual weekend
activity. What's emerging now looks a
lot like what happened with photography.
Actually, taking good photos used to
require very serious expertise,
exposure, developing dark rooms. I took
that dark room class in high school. And
then cameras got easier. The smartphone
made everyone a photographer. Instagram
came along. Professional photography
still exists to be sure. But alongside a
vast amateur ecosystem of people who
just love taking pictures, software is
going through its Instagram moment. The
professionals aren't going anywhere.
Complex systems still require deep
expertise. But alongside professional
development, there's now space for a
service like Fable, for casual creation,
building for yourself, for fun, for
friends, because you had an idea and now
you can make it real. And because it's
play, people do try weird stuff. They
follow ideas wherever they go. Some of
the most interesting software I've seen
has this hobbyist energy. It's not
always polished. It's not always
scalable, but it's genuinely creative in
ways that commercial software rarely is.
And I think we need that because one of
the things I've observed about
commercial software is that it remains
stuck in a lot of the design paradigms
of the 1990s, 2000s, and 2010s. And we
have not fully seen what AI native
enterprise software looks like. We
haven't had that injection of creative
energy. And I wonder if some of it is
going to come from people who are
playful. Here's the thing about telling
someone they can now build any app they
want. Most people say cool and then
never think of anything to build. Not
because they're uncreative, but because
most people's problems aren't software
shaped, and most don't notice when they
are. There's a concept from parkour, the
sport, called parkour vision. The
trained ability to see walls as surfaces
you can run along, gaps as spaces to
jump through, railings as pathways. We
memorably saw this with a Netflix
special uh with Alex Honold climbing uh
the Taipei Tower, right? Taipe 101. He
saw the building differently and so he
could climb it. The city looks different
to someone using parkour to traverse it
because of that vision. And software
vision is like that. Programmers are
trained to see repetitive tasks as
automation opportunities in the same way
Alex is trained to see a skyscraper as a
climbable surface. Programmers will look
at a manual workflow and think, "I can
script this." And the rest of us just
keep doing it manually. The people who
take to vibe coding aren't necessarily
technical. They're people who already
have software vision who develop it
quickly when they don't have it. They
notice when a problem is software shaped
intuitively. Hey, I keep doing this over
and over. I wish I could see all of this
information in one place, but no one
would ever build me this software that
has phases of the moon and also when my
next homework assignment is due. Or,
it's annoying that these two systems
don't talk to each other. If you've ever
spent an afternoon building a
complicated spreadsheet to solve a
problem, I bet you have some software
vision in you. If you've ever duct taped
together automations, whether they're
N8N or Zapier or written macros or bent
a tool to do something it wasn't
designed for, that's the disposition. I
remember writing bash scripts because my
audio drivers wouldn't work back in the
early 2000s. That's softwareshaped
perspective. You don't need to know how
to code a ton or even at all now. You
need to notice when a problem could be
solved by software and curious enough to
try. The other thing I'll call out that
you need is some degree of comfort with
ambiguity. Things won't work on the
first try. You'll probably describe what
you want, get something close but not
right, and you'll need to figure out how
you refine that description. If you
require step-by-step instructions for
everything, this part might get
frustrating because you can step by step
your way into a vibe coding space, but
then it's up to you to do that sort of
parkour magic and figure out what you
want to make. And if you're okay with
that experimentation, if that iteration
is a little bit of part of the fun for
you, you'll do fine. I do want to be
honest about two big failure modes I see
with vibe coding because oftentimes
people will jump all the way over and
say there's nothing but vibe coding in
the future. I don't think that's true.
The first failure mode is moving so fast
you never stop to think. When building
is instant, which it's becoming now, the
bottleneck shifts to knowing what you
actually want. And it's very easy to
prompt before you figure that out. So
you generate piles of features that
don't fit together. You end up hip deep
in a project that doesn't serve any
clear purpose. The build test iterate
loop is so fast now it can feel really
intoxicating just for its own sake. And
you can burn a weekend building software
that doesn't really solve a real
painoint. And so the invitation here,
the discipline is to pause, to describe
what you want really plainly before you
start prompting to know why you're
building it. Even if it's just for fun
and what it should do and and what you
want it to do, what success looks like.
It doesn't have to be monetary. The
tools will happily turn vague intentions
into their idea of working code. But
that may not be your idea at the end of
the day. The second issue is confusing
works on my laptop with ready for users.
AI is compressing the cost of creating
software towards zero. And a working
prototype now takes a few minutes or
maybe a couple of hours. But AI doesn't
compress the cost of owning software in
production. Someone will still have to
answer for it. So if you wanted to make
something that was not just for you,
that actually had users as Fable now
has, then someone has to answer for when
that vibecoded project breaks at 2 a.m.
when someone's trying to order a dog
picture, right? Who carries the
liability when it fails? Who integrates
it with everything else? For personal
projects, if it's truly personal,
doesn't matter, right? You don't care.
Your greenhouse automation can crash and
the worst thing that happens is you go
water the tomato plants. Your friend
group bot can have bugs and your friends
can chuckle. The stakes are low and
imperfection is fine. But for something
that users are depending on, even for a
silly dog picture app, the gap between
prototype and production grade is still
real. Security researchers have found
that roughly 10% of apps built on some
popular vibe coding platforms have
vulnerabilities. And I would say that's
a low estimate. This is stuff like
databases exposed to the public
internet, API keys visible to anyone who
looked. AI tends to handle the happy
path and often misses the edge cases.
And this is where platforms like Lovable
are making a bet. They're running the
same playbook Shopify ran from a
strategy perspective. They're starting
with you can vibe code anything and
we'll help you grow up. That's what
Shopify did with shops. The tools are
extending that bridge toward production,
adding authentication, adding security,
scaling infrastructure, so you don't
have to start over when your little vibe
coded project takes off. The gap is
narrowing, but it's not all the way gone
yet. Right now, vibe coding is great for
prototyping. It's great for personal
tools. It's great for experiments. And
it's great to help you figure out if an
idea has legs. If something does catch
fire, you may need to level up your
understanding or you may need to bring
in someone who can help you go the rest
of the way. You might be wondering, what
is the tools stack? What makes sense
here? I'm not going to go into it in
depth. I have a whole guide for this
that I that I put on Substack that you
can grab. There's two fundamentally
different paths here. The first one is
the builder platform path, right? tools
like lovable, bolt, replet. You describe
what you want in chat and the platform
will generate the application front end,
backend, increasingly database
deployment, even domain. Lovable does
that. You never see a terminal. You
don't have to see code if you don't want
to. And this path can make sense if you
have zero technical background. You need
something fast. You know, you're
building a prototype. Your tradeoff
there is control. Those platforms
optimize for speed to first demo not for
long-term maintainability and you have
to be intentional about that. The second
path has a little bit more of a curve.
It's command line tools. Tools like
claude code, cursor, windsurf. You work
in a code editor or a terminal. The AI
writes the code. You do see it. You run
it locally and you commit to your own
repo and you deploy it when you choose.
If you have some technical comfort, this
doesn't feel scary. If you want to
understand and own what you're building
and learn, this is also a great path.
And this gives you the flexibility to
change your tools very easily without
starting over. The trade-off is
obviously the friction and the setup,
right? There is more of a learning ramp.
You need to be comfortable enough with a
command line to run basic operations.
The trade-off is that the code truly is
yours. It lives in your repo. You get to
read it. You get to modify it. And so
for someone who wants to either really
learn deeply or build for the long term,
this is often the right call. The extra
friction up front essentially pays
dividends in control and flexibility
down the one more concept for both of
these that's worth kind of keeping in
your mind. AI coding tools degrade over
conversation. The model will contradict
itself. It will forget what it built
etc. Your solution in both cases is to
break work into small tasks and run each
task as much as you can in a fresh
context window. Instead of one long
conversation that can meander, make sure
that you have clear tasking for a
particular job and you can define it
precisely. Now, if you're more complex
and you're setting up a full engineering
project, this often looks like defining
a spec and assigning multiple agents to
work on it. But in vibe coding honestly
what it often looks like is you write
out what you want to accomplish and then
it's like a very simple task in lovable
this one thing that I want to do or it's
a very clear ask to fix this particular
thing and tell me when you're done in
cloud code and you can build real stuff
right you can build a working web
application easily in a weekend at this
point you could build a client intake
form that saves responses to a database
no problem you can build an internal
tool for a small team that does
something well you build a personal
dashboard that pulls data from APIs that
you're already familiar with. These are
not at all impressive to professional
developers and they don't need to be.
These can be like very fun little
projects if you have that software
shaped mind we talked about. And yes,
you can build something more if you
want. You can build I've seen people
vibe code an entire customer
relationship management app for a small
business. Not a big business, right? not
something that's like hundreds of
people, but for a small business, it was
good enough. The skill that matters in
all this is learning how to code to
extract the most value. And this is
something that is really intuitive if
you're an engineer, but it may not be
intuitive if you've never engineered
before. Because the valuable skill isn't
really coding anymore. It's
specification. And experienced
developers know that. They know how to
break problems into pieces so that what
is coded is very very useful and
contributes to a hole. They know what
questions to ask, what happens when a
user isn't logged in, what if the
database is slow, etc. Beginners tend to
prompt more vaguely and accept whatever
the AI generates. Now, you don't need to
be a professional developer to walk
across this bridge, but you do need to
develop enough intuition to specify
clearly and evaluate with a degree of
critical thinking. It's a much smaller
gap than learning to code from scratch
and it will close faster with practice.
Essentially, you need to build an
intuition for building softwares shaped
things. Start small. Notice what goes
wrong. Develop a sense for what
questions to ask effectively if you want
to develop a vibe coding hobby. The more
small projects you work on, the faster
you tend to go. And so, if I were to
give you a few pieces of advice if you
wanted to start building, one, it really
is fun. Start with something you
actually want. That's going to give you
motivation and help you get going. Two,
describe before you build. Actually,
take the time to write it down. I talked
about that earlier in the video. Three,
accept that your early attempts, they're
going to be rough, and that's okay, and
it's part of building your intuition.
Four, just stay in the shallow end until
you're comfortable. You don't need to
jump to build something really big.
Remember, you can be playful. Five, know
when to ask for help. There's a
fantastic community of very experienced
engineers who also vibe code. They hang
out on X. They hang out in Discords.
Frankly, they hang out in my Substack
chat. You can ask them and you will get
lots of answers. I don't know where the
software creation hobby is going to go.
It's all exploding faster than we can
keep track of. Maybe it stays niche, but
the tools are going mainstream and I
built a little app for that may soon
become as common as I made you a
spreadsheet. And what I keep coming back
to is the conjunction of three things
that haven't been true before. Building
software is now inherently satisfying.
It's the feeling of making something
that just works. That has always been
true, but it used to be gated behind
years of specialized learning, and
that's not the case anymore. Two, the
internet has nearly infinite demand for
interesting things. That's been true for
a while, but finding out what the
internet had demand for was historically
very expensive. You had to invest real
time and money before you knew. And
three, the cost of building something is
approaching zero for hobby scale
software. that is really new and making
it fun is even newer. It's just a few
weeks old. The cost of experimentation
and playfulness has collapsed. If you
put all of those together, something new
emerges here. You can be playful. You
can try the idea. If it doesn't work,
you didn't lose that much time. If it
does, maybe the internet loves your dog
pictures. So, this isn't really about
hustle. This isn't really about an
arbitrage opportunity. Although you can
use these same skills for both of those
things. It's closer to what happens when
any creative tool becomes widely
accessible. Like photography, when
people have a smartphone in their
pocket, more people take cool pictures
and the things they make are more
creative and weirder and more varied
because we're just a very diverse
species. Now, some people will use this
tool and walk through the door and build
businesses and that's fantastic and the
startup use cases are real. But the
interesting story may be the people who
walk through just to make things fun.
They don't necessarily have growth
metrics. They just have the pleasure of
building their own tools and following
the ideas where they lead. The exciting
thing to me is that the tools exist now
that make that degree of playfulness
possible. And the internet truly becomes
your playground. And frankly, if that's
you, I'd love to see what you've built.
Ask follow-up questions or revisit key timestamps.
The video discusses a shift in the AI discourse from an ominous focus on job displacement and risks to a more playful and creative approach to software development, termed 'vibe coding.' This shift is enabled by recent advancements in AI models that allow for longer context retention and more mature agentic patterns, significantly lowering the friction of building software. Previously, creating software required significant effort and specialized knowledge, limiting it to serious projects. Now, the reduced barrier to entry allows individuals to build software for fun, leading to the creation of unique, sometimes absurd, but often delightful applications like Fable, which generates Renaissance-style portraits of pets. This democratization of software creation is compared to the evolution of photography, where smartphones made everyone a photographer. The video highlights that the satisfaction of creating something tangible is now accessible to a wider audience, including hobbyists and those without formal technical backgrounds. It introduces the concept of 'software vision,' the ability to perceive repetitive tasks or problems as opportunities for software solutions, which is becoming more crucial than traditional coding skills. The video also addresses potential failure modes, such as building without clear purpose or confusing a working prototype with a production-ready application, and suggests strategies for effective vibe coding, like clear specification and iterative development. Finally, it points to the two main paths for using AI coding tools: builder platforms for speed and simplicity, and command-line tools for greater control and learning. The core message is that the cost of experimentation has collapsed, making software creation a more accessible and playful endeavor, fostering creativity and leading to a diverse ecosystem of applications.
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